Juno News - EXCLUSIVE POLL： Signs Poilievre is WINNING

00:00:00.040 Half of young Canadian women say they're putting off kids because they can't

00:00:04.120 afford them. But Mark Carney wants 100 million people, not for families, for the

00:00:11.080 machine. No homes, no hope, and no future. Just growth at any cost. Not to build

00:00:19.640 Canada, but to change it. Hi, I'm Candice Malcolm and welcome to The

00:00:33.560 Candice Malcolm Show. So as you know, folks, I am deeply skeptical of the

00:00:38.680 national polls. I think the national polling companies mostly work for the

00:00:42.740 legacy media, the liberal media, and they are doing what they are supposed to do,

00:00:46.600 which is create hope and optimism for the liberals, prop up the liberals, despite

00:00:51.880 all of their scandals and the terrible job they've done running this country, and to

00:00:55.780 try to demoralize conservatives, to try to make sure the conservatives stay at home

00:00:59.480 they don't believe that we actually have a shot of winning this campaign. And that

00:01:03.100 is why at Juno News we decided to commission our own polls during these

00:01:07.360 elections so that we could see with our own eyes, see the data, see what is

00:01:11.080 happening, and that includes asking different types of questions that the

00:01:15.220 legacy media pollsters do not ask. And I'm very excited today to announce that we

00:01:20.080 have a new poll that is just being released this morning, and it shows a

00:01:24.460 very different story than the national polls. You're going to want to listen to

00:01:28.540 this interview. I am pleased to be joined by David Murray, who is our in-house

00:01:33.040 pollster here at Juno News. He works for a company called One Persuasion, which is

00:01:37.120 one of the best polling companies in the country, and the work that he's doing is

00:01:41.680 incredible in showing a totally different picture of the mood of the

00:01:44.920 country right now. So, David, welcome to the podcast. Thanks for joining us.

00:01:48.220 David Murray, Good to be with you.

00:01:49.540 David Murray, Okay, so we have a new poll that has come out. Why don't you tell us

00:01:53.620 sort of the top line, what it shows? David Murray, Sure. Top line for this

00:01:58.180 nationally is liberals at 39%, conservatives at 36%, NDP at 14%, Bloc Québécois at 9%, and the

00:02:05.620 Greens at 2%. Okay, and how has that changed from the previous week? So, this

00:02:12.160 actually results in a 4%, 4 percentage points drop for the liberals, an increase

00:02:18.100 of 3 for the conservatives, and very notably, this is very significant, an

00:02:23.260 increase of 3 for the New Democrats. And the changes that we're seeing are

00:02:28.120 permeating throughout the different regionals and throughout the

00:02:30.820 demographics. It's a very fascinating poll that's showing some real movement at

00:02:34.120 this stage in the campaign. Well, it's interesting because I had you on a few

00:02:37.180 weeks ago, and we talked about how the real story of the campaign at that point

00:02:40.180 was the complete and utter collapse of the NDP. So, there was a lot of mention in

00:02:44.500 legacy media about how Canadians were flocking to Mark Carney, and that

00:02:47.860 everyone was sort of throwing their support behind him. Really, what we were

00:02:50.800 seeing is that the NDP had just, like the bottom had fallen out. Some projections

00:02:55.840 showed them getting as little as zero seats in this election, but I think this week

00:02:59.320 what we saw was a little bit of a comeback from the NDP. So, can you talk about maybe

00:03:03.740 why that is? What were the reasons that show that the Liberals are now actually

00:03:08.740 losing support on the left back to the New Democrats?

00:03:12.740 There's one demographic in particular that this is very pronounced in, and that's with

00:03:16.420 females between the ages of 18 and 34. So, among that demographic, we're seeing a 12-percentage

00:03:21.240 point decrease for the Liberals. At the same time, we have a 16-percent increase for the

00:03:26.740 NDP, as well as an eight-percent increase for the Conservatives at the same time. There's

00:03:31.740 other stuff happening with the Bloc Québécois and Greens as well, but those are the main numbers

00:03:35.740 that are very important. And I think that it's very interesting. If you look at the previous

00:03:39.740 poll we did for Juneau News, we actually asked about Mark Carney's scandals and the impact that

00:03:43.740 they were having on people's impressions of him. And what we noticed was that among females between the 1.00

00:03:48.740 ages of 18 and 34, it had by far the most negative impact on their vote. And so seeing this really

00:03:58.740 turn out in the actual ballot decision is very interesting. It's also notable that this is

00:04:05.740 actually more where traditionally this demographic is. In terms of raw vote numbers, we're looking at the

00:04:12.740 NDP leading, this is for females between the ages of 18 and 34, NDP leading with 35%, Conservatives

00:04:19.740 with 32%, and the Liberals with 21%.

00:04:23.740 That's really interesting. Okay. Now, this is the key part of the poll that we do differently at

00:04:28.740 Juneau News than any other polling company in the country. This is something that we came up with for

00:04:33.740 this campaign. I know you said last time that it has been used in other countries, and it does help

00:04:38.740 give us a better picture of what is happening. And that is something that we call the

00:04:42.740 neighbor poll. So the neighbor poll, the idea behind this is we're not asking

00:04:46.740 you, who are you voting for? The question isn't to, you know, to the person who's

00:04:50.740 responding to the poll. It isn't, hey, who do you plan to vote on in the next election, which

00:04:54.740 could lead to people not giving the straight answer, or choosing not to answer, or

00:04:59.740 what we see is it skews more towards the Liberals. But asking people who their neighbors are voting

00:05:04.740 for, which I think kind of cuts past the distrust that many people have for pollsters.

00:05:09.740 And you might be more open to telling a pollster who you think your neighbor is going to vote for

00:05:13.740 based on the momentum, based on the number of signs in your neighborhood, based on the

00:05:16.740 conversations that you're having at the coffee shop or around the dinner table or around the

00:05:20.740 water cooler at work. And it helps us tap into something a little bit deeper. And this is why I

00:05:26.740 think it's so important. This time around, this is the second time that we've asked this

00:05:30.740 neighbor poll question. And this time around, we actually see that the Conservatives are winning

00:05:36.740 when we look at it this way. When we look at it this way and ask this question of who your neighbors

00:05:40.740 are voting for, the Conservatives are at 40%. The Liberals are at 38%. So David, why don't you

00:05:46.740 walk us through this? Yeah, so what we're seeing is with this neighbor poll, or with this neighbor

00:05:51.740 question, it's actually the Conservatives that are leading over the Liberals, the Conservatives.

00:05:55.740 40% of people indicated that their neighbors would be voting for the Conservatives, 38% for the Liberals,

00:06:04.740 and then 14% for the NDP, 4% for the Bloc Québécois, 3% for the Greens, and then 1% for others.

00:06:10.740 And this is among people who did not say that they didn't know how their neighbors were voting.

00:06:14.740 Okay, and help us walk through the methodology and why we ask these questions.

00:06:20.740 Because you came up with three rationales and ideas as to why this is a better way of sampling the public.

00:06:27.740 Sure. So this is not a new methodology. This has been done in several countries,

00:06:32.740 most notably the United States, France, and Germany. And they've all really found very different types

00:06:38.740 of movement that are not typically characterized by ballot in and of itself. And academics and people

00:06:44.740 that study polls and politics have come up with three core reasons as to why this is. Among social networks,

00:06:51.740 they kind of function as mini electoral samples. If someone has 10 friends who plan to vote,

00:06:56.740 that is effectively another mini sample of local sentiment, summed up over many respondents.

00:07:01.740 These mini samples can provide a robust signal. Number two, openness about others' choices.

00:07:07.740 People might be reluctant to say what their own individual ballot choice is, but saying what you

00:07:13.740 speculate your colleagues or your neighbors would be, that's a lot easier for people to do.

00:07:20.740 And then thirdly, capturing undecideds in the late shifts. So as networks discuss politics,

00:07:26.740 respondents may report what they hear among their friends who are on the fence or leaning in the

00:07:31.740 given direction before those same friends would admit it to a pollster.

00:07:35.740 And so this really helps us capture, I mean, when you just look kind of objectively at the different

00:07:40.740 campaigns, right, you see Pierre Polyev with these huge lineups, these huge events. I mean,

00:07:45.740 15,000 people in Edmonton, they kept having to change the venue because they needed bigger and

00:07:49.740 bigger locations. And it wasn't just in Edmonton in this sort of prairie conservative heartland.

00:07:54.740 He's also having these huge showings in suburban Ontario, in places that have long been liberal and

00:08:01.740 even NDP strongholds. He had a big rally out Prince Edward Island, another one in Sault Ste.

00:08:06.740 Marie. I mean, these are not places where conservatives traditionally have huge levels of

00:08:11.740 support. And yet people are going out in public and really kind of voting with their presence and

00:08:18.740 showing that they are excited and that there's enthusiasm behind Pierre Polyev. And I think this is the

00:08:24.740 first time we're really starting to see that translate into the polls. Is that how you read it as well, David?

00:08:29.740 I think that we're clearly starting to see some more momentum getting behind Pierre Polyev,

00:08:34.740 this movement that we've seen in the national ballot. And even in regions such as Ontario, we see the race

00:08:40.740 tightening quite significantly. So in Ontario, as an example, we have the Conservatives up three compared

00:08:45.740 to our last poll with the Liberals down by four and the NDP up by one. These are numbers that are

00:08:51.740 really manifesting that change that people are trying to look for among the electorate. And as people

00:08:58.740 have more and more of these conversations, they start to learn more about the different policies and

00:09:01.740 platforms that are being proposed by the different leaders or some of the other more intangible things

00:09:06.740 like leader qualities. This is all manifesting into how people are firming up their decision to vote.

00:09:13.740 And we've seen in the past that Pierre has been able to get significant numbers of people to his

00:09:20.740 rallies, and they become more and more and more impressive as time goes on. So to your point,

00:09:27.740 whether it's in Borden-Carlton, Prince of Rhode Island, or Sault Ste. Marie, or even in Edmonton,

00:09:32.740 it's absolutely incredible to see this kind of momentum. I think you're really starting to see this show up in

00:09:37.740 the numbers. Interesting. Now, we talked earlier about young women and how young women have really shifted away

00:09:42.740 from liberals, mainly over their impression of Mark Carney, given all of these scandals that he keeps

00:09:48.740 finding himself in. I mean, they're never ending. We now learn that the Chinese government is doing a

00:09:52.740 coordinated campaign to promote Mark Carney in WeChat forums. So that really impacted the impression among

00:10:00.740 young women. I want to talk a little bit about young men, Canadian men aged 18 to 34, because we also saw quite a bit of

00:10:07.740 movement with the Liberals and losing ground among that demographic. So can you tell us a little bit about what you

00:10:13.740 found with men aged 18 to 34? For sure. So the changes and the movement is not as significant as females 18 to 34,

00:10:20.740 but it's still quite substantial. So we see actually, the Liberals lose six percentage points of their vote compared to last

00:10:25.740 time, the Conservatives lose one percentage point compared to last time, and the NDP gaining seven percentage points

00:10:31.740 over the last time. So the actual top line that this works out to is males 18 to 34, the Conservatives would get 37% of the

00:10:37.740 vote, Liberals would get 29, and then the NDP would get 21. This is also relatively in line with what we've seen in

00:10:44.740 previous, like before the election cycle, and even before the real rise of Mr. Paglia's polling numbers. This is

00:10:51.740 actually quite normal for Dalek within this actual demographic.

00:10:57.740 And then what about, let's talk about older Canadians and baby boomers. We've talked a lot before about how the older

00:11:03.740 demographic was showing up for the Liberals. Is that still what we're seeing?

00:11:07.740 It is, but we're starting to see some movement definitely in the other direction. So among males over the age of 55,

00:11:15.740 no change of Conservative vote from last week, but the Liberals are down by four percentage points, which is actually

00:11:20.740 quite significant. We actually see a lot of that movement translate over to the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. And among older

00:11:29.740 females, like over the age of 55, so on ballot, they actually have 50% of the vote for the Liberals, 31% for 0.98

00:11:36.740 for Conservatives, and 5% for the NDP. That's actually, the movement that we're seeing is a loss of four

00:11:44.740 percentage points from the Liberals, a loss of three percentage points from the New Democrats, a gain of

00:11:51.740 three percentage points for the Conservatives, and among the Bloc Québécois, it's a gain of two percentage points.

00:11:56.740 So very interesting trends overall that we're seeing in this right now.

00:12:00.740 Okay, and now I want to talk a little bit about regions, because one of the things that our polls have been

00:12:04.740 founding that other polls haven't really picked up on is a surge in vote behind the Bloc Québécois and the idea

00:12:11.740 that the Bloc could provide us the spoiler for the Liberals in Quebec. So is that still a trend that we are

00:12:18.740 noticing in these polls?

00:12:19.740 It is. So our top line in Quebec is the Bloc Québécois at 35%, Liberals at 30%, Conservatives at 22%, and the NDP at 8%.

00:12:29.740 So in terms of the delta or the change from last time, the Liberals would be down five percentage points,

00:12:35.740 the Bloc Québécois would be down also five percentage points, and the Conservatives would be up by four,

00:12:41.740 which is very interesting. And also combining this with the demographic data that we're seeing as well,

00:12:48.740 it's older Québécois individuals are shifting their vote from the Liberals to the Bloc Québécois.

00:12:54.740 And what's also very interesting is if we actually look at the neighbor poll results, one thing that really

00:12:59.740 stuck out to me was the number of people who said they did not know how their neighbors were voting.

00:13:05.740 And on average, that number in Canada was around 31%. Within Quebec, though, that number shoots up to 44%.

00:13:17.740 So this shows, in my mind, a large amount of volatility that people are experiencing, that the idea of a firmness of vote

00:13:26.740 really shaping up in that province specifically is not necessarily happening the way that others are seeing it.

00:13:34.740 And people are recognizing it. People are recognizing that their neighbors, colleagues and friends are mobile.

00:13:40.740 They're not firm and stuck in their trench on a partisan basis.

00:13:44.740 That's super interesting. OK, I want to talk about one last thing with you, David, while I have you.

00:13:49.740 We have been doing a series here at Juno News called Swing Riding Profiles.

00:13:54.740 We've highlighted the key ridings and profiled them based on which ridings we think will determine the election.

00:14:01.740 It's going to come down to a handful of swing ridings. It's going to be close, folks.

00:14:05.740 As you can see, even with our neighbor poll, we have the Conservatives at 40, the Liberals at 38, neck and neck.

00:14:11.740 And it's going to come down to a small handful of votes and a small handful of ridings. 0.82

00:14:16.740 I want to talk about one that we just highlighted this week, which is Milton East and Halton Hills South.

00:14:23.740 So you wrote that this is the sort of seat the Conservatives have to win in order to form government.

00:14:28.740 It's also critical for the Liberals to hold if they expect to retain power.

00:14:34.740 So I hope I'm not putting you on the spot too much here, David, but I'm hoping you can help us understand this riding of Milton East, Halton Hills.

00:14:42.740 It's a suburban Toronto. I think it's considered suburban or ex-urban.

00:14:47.740 I'm just part of the GTA or just outside of it. And I'm hoping you can sort of walk us through why you think this is one of the most important ridings to watch in the election.

00:14:56.740 I think it's demographically very interesting to watch. I think you have a lot of young families in this riding specifically.

00:15:03.740 It's also on the doorstep of many other GTA ridings.

00:15:06.740 Like it's firmly within Halton region, which is on the doorstep of Mississauga and Peel.

00:15:12.740 I think that you have very interesting ethnic communities in there as well.

00:15:15.740 And sort of bridging that urban world divide, because when you have communities like Georgetown and other small ones on the fringe,

00:15:23.740 you're getting out to shooting down towards the Kitchener area as an example of where this kind of is projecting and out towards like Michael Chong's kind of fortress that he's built in the from the blue perspective.

00:15:37.740 It's seen as a natural stepping point either way. If you're going into the GTA or coming out, it's kind of a very significant hurdle that both parties need to get over if they wish to actually make progress in the other riding surrounding them.

00:15:49.740 Well, it's interesting because the idea is that conservatives dominate in the rural parts of the country.

00:15:55.740 And this is a pretty clear example of an area that used to be rural and now it's becoming sort of more immigrant dense and more of like a traditional Toronto suburb.

00:16:08.740 So how do you think that the changing demographics in this area hurt or help the conservatives?

00:16:15.740 For the conservatives, I think it certainly helps when you talk about young families, you're thinking about specifically cost of living, you're thinking about housing, you're thinking about transportation,

00:16:22.740 all things that Mr. Polyev has had quite strong and robust policy on and he's been very vocal about it for a very long time.

00:16:31.740 In fact, his private members bill is called Building Homes Not Bureaucracy Act, which is literally a piece of legislation designed to build more homes to make it more affordable for our increasing population to be able to afford homes.

00:16:45.740 And that's not just in the immigrant sense, that's also for our young people as well, because he's met countless 35 year olds are living in their parents' basement still.

00:16:54.740 Like this is something that we even saw during the leadership race that he was very, very passionate about and really wanted to use the federal levers to be able to address some of these issues in a very systematic way.

00:17:05.740 So I think that some of these demographics that we're seeing, especially in a riding like this, actually very much favors the conservatives in terms of the issue set that they really care about.

00:17:15.740 Great. Well, it's so interesting. All right, David, thank you so much for your time. We appreciate you joining the show.

00:17:19.740 You're welcome.

00:17:20.740 It is David Murray of One Persuasion. That's all the time we have for today.

00:17:24.740 Thank you so much for tuning in. I'm Candace Malcolm. This is The Candace Malcolm Show. Thank you and God bless.

00:17:35.740 Thank you.

Juno News - April 11, 2025

EXCLUSIVE POLL： Signs Poilievre is WINNING

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