Juno News - Expert panel declares the pandemic in Canada over

00:00:00.000 you're tuned in to the andrew lawton show

00:00:05.920 welcome back to the andrew lawton show here on true north obviously we've been speaking for

00:00:14.440 weeks for years now about the covid restrictions that have in many ways as i've said time and time

00:00:20.560 again been in some key areas far worse than the virus against which these restrictions were

00:00:26.120 intended to protect especially as the virus has gotten weaker through the omicron phase when some

00:00:32.240 governments were insisting on adding restrictions now slowly but surely we've seen some of these

00:00:37.960 start to be lifted notably alberta and saskatchewan took a very swift approach to getting rid of their

00:00:44.300 vaccine passports in ontario and quebec and other provinces we have a bit of a slower uptake but

00:00:50.120 the big question here is when is the pandemic over and who gets to decide it's the world health

00:00:56.100 organization that said we were in the midst of a pandemic but do we have to wait for their cue to

00:01:00.560 say it's over well a few weeks back you may recall we spoke to ervin student of the institute for 21st

00:01:07.140 century questions which had assembled a crack committee called the canada science and policy

00:01:13.220 committee to exit the pandemic the focus was to figure out in concrete ways how to get canada

00:01:20.100 from the indefinite never-ending lockdown permanent emergency to a place of where we want to be

00:01:26.220 which is hopefully getting rid of all of these restrictions ervin student joins me back on the

00:01:31.060 show now the committee has after just a few weeks said that the pandemic is effectively over and let's

00:01:37.660 start there ervin because i words matter and you're not saying over you're saying effectively over

00:01:43.120 what does that mean and how does it differ from over

00:01:46.080 well thanks first of all for having me thanks for all your reporting and thanks for allowing these

00:01:52.860 types of interviews with with proper answers about serious topics andrew the pandemic is effectively

00:01:58.700 over for canada we've declared it such on the canada science policy uh committee to exit the pandemic

00:02:05.540 it's a similar declaration for countries like singapore israel ireland united kingdom spain norway

00:02:12.320 denmark netherlands finland i could go on uh they're no uh less smart than we are in fact

00:02:21.020 they've collapsed their systems less they've determined that it is now effectively endemic which

00:02:25.480 means that it has a highly seasonal character first of all secondly that their systems are able to deal

00:02:31.300 with any rises and falls of course during seasonal variation as are ours and thirdly on a systems

00:02:40.420 understanding in canada it is the minor problem amongst eight crises of system that are very serious

00:02:46.500 in the countries all those things combined mean that it's steady as it's full on as she goes through the

00:02:53.140 systems we exit with high energy the pandemic is over for us we are not following the science as a science

00:02:59.700 project because then you would say well a virus never ends we could be following the science and

00:03:04.660 studying covet 19 for a century and that's what happens with all historical viruses it is a policy

00:03:10.740 lead the science informs that and we're at a point both through vaccination other other immunity other

00:03:16.740 interventions and the passage of the virus the mutations at a point where we're ready to exit quite

00:03:23.060 easily across the systems that we'll discuss so that's the considered determination across huge study and

00:03:29.060 consultation by the committee over a short period of time and we're ready to go so we presented our

00:03:33.540 exit plan on the back of an endemic endemicity declaration that we say with considerable certainty

00:03:40.420 and consistent with other positions and our own domestic circumstances you mentioned a few moments ago

00:03:46.100 ervin a whole list of countries that have done what we've been hoping for in canada for quite some time

00:03:51.300 they've lifted restrictions they've declared the pandemic effectively over and in those cases though it was

00:03:57.300 governments that made that declaration governments that made a determination to lift these restrictions

00:04:03.140 why in canada and i mean no disrespect to you and your group here but why in canada is it falling to a

00:04:08.580 private sector group to make this declaration instead of governments making it we're not for profit but

00:04:14.500 we are doing it in some sense for the government which is unable to make that declaration for a host of

00:04:20.260 reasons both backing themselves into ideological corners into corners of fetish into slogans uh corners

00:04:29.460 on online they're just unable to say what what is obvious to a policy community that is observing

00:04:36.340 uh this both nationally and international i should say it is a policy lead so when you say government it is

00:04:41.940 not scientists that declare the pandemic is over the scientists study and they advise but government and

00:04:47.620 policy people decide this is what we've got wrong from the ab initio at the very start in canada we

00:04:53.700 started working in slogans follow the science or the virus is in charge nay policies in charge we study

00:05:01.860 the virus we have science advisors amongst many other advisors across the disciplines and they advise

00:05:07.860 policy people who make a determination the policy determination is that we're good to go across the

00:05:14.180 systems the science determination it is that is endemic it feeds into a policy conclusion and we provide

00:05:20.580 the choreography of exit across the systems the other countries that you've mentioned did not collapse

00:05:25.460 their systems to the same degree that we have and i'm sure we'll discuss that which is why contrary to

00:05:30.740 what we say online or what the government imagines when it says i gotta have gut feeling that we should

00:05:35.700 we should exit slowly steady sheet goes see what the numbers are it has to be full on full energy not just

00:05:41.940 restrictions obviously restrictions go uh immediately and then we we will discuss that but across the

00:05:47.700 other systems that have collapsed national unity public health non-covered education the economy

00:05:53.780 international the international picture the social fabric we've collapsed those to a very very

00:05:59.220 considerable degree and we so we can't just afford to look at covid cases icu counts all of that is for

00:06:05.940 the good but it has to be in a complex of systems thinking and the conclusion is we're off we gotta go

00:06:11.860 go go otherwise the systems continue to collapse covid notwithstanding let me then ask you about why

00:06:20.420 that's happening in your estimation and your fellow committee members here is it because government is

00:06:25.140 relying on bad science or flawed science or is it that governments are in your view drawing the wrong

00:06:31.220 conclusions from science that is at its core sound it's a great question and it's one for the history

00:06:37.380 books and we do at the end of our uh this exit table that we provided i i recommend all people look

00:06:43.140 at is eight by 21 matrix with detailed choreography across all regions of the country call us all systems

00:06:49.620 at the end we do call for a royal commission on the pandemic lessons learned and best practices around

00:06:54.100 the world uh my own um working hypothesis is that we collapsed intellectually and systems wise in the

00:07:05.220 in the machinery of government at the very start whereas science advisors and scientists were at the

00:07:11.620 very margins of public decision making in 2019 we all of a sudden said the scientists are in charge

00:07:18.580 and our scientists are some of the best in the world they're clinically excellent and they're well

00:07:22.500 intentioned good professionals but with the greatest respect they stink at public policy public policy

00:07:28.980 is public policy is a separate craft no less complex and requiring no less intellectual um

00:07:37.060 capacity well yeah they're not economists they're not constitutional scholars and i mean those are just

00:07:42.180 two significant things that were absent from much of the discourse early on especially but i'd say even

00:07:47.780 now to some extent education specialists social social scientists social policy people economists

00:07:54.100 business people constitutional lawyers international strategists national unity thinkers uh everything

00:08:00.660 related to the complex system that we call uh canadian society second largest country in the world and

00:08:06.660 we imagine that all of our thinking reduces to covet the covet is the central condition and covet is

00:08:12.260 obviously an amazing a massive shock to the system but all along we should have had a complex of thinkers

00:08:20.500 and a synthesis at the top called a policy synthesis that's what leadership is about we collapsed that in

00:08:26.580 favor of the scientists who all of a sudden had decision making power and veto power over school closures

00:08:31.620 business closures border closures the social fabrics vaccination on vaccination they signed off on

00:08:39.300 government and uh decision making in all these spheres that extended well beyond their legitimate

00:08:44.740 ken in many cases they didn't know what they were doing but they were charged with this and perhaps they

00:08:49.060 grew to be confident about it and it's clear that they overstretched what we've done on this committee i

00:08:54.500 think it's it's very original across the countries i'm not aware of any other committee uh national

00:08:59.700 committee in any other country around the world that has done this we brought a communion between the

00:09:04.660 scientists and the doctors and the policy community across many disciplines we brought them together to

00:09:10.260 exit nationally and we have a policy lead the science feeds into that and so the choreography we have

00:09:16.980 is is is that of a policy choreography determined by uh excellent science and scientists one thing that

00:09:25.060 was interesting looking at the table that you provided here is you don't just break it down chronologically

00:09:31.220 you know from steps you take in february and march and beyond but also regionally and some things are

00:09:37.460 general you know the end of restrictions that's something that applies in the north atlanta canada

00:09:41.780 central canada the west where are the areas where you do think there are regional differences here

00:09:46.980 that need to be taken into consideration because that's not something that we've really heard discussed

00:09:51.220 in fact in a lot of ways it's been a very one-size-fits-all solution that has been offered by the federal

00:09:56.500 government certainly it's a great question the country is very big i repeat the second biggest

00:10:02.100 country in the world and we divide it into four regions atlantic center centers canada uh sorry

00:10:07.220 ontario quebec uh the west four provinces and the huge north which is the size territory of the

00:10:12.740 european union so it's huge uh for ontario for instance uh the most cataclysmic school closures we

00:10:20.740 recommend an immediate door-to-door campaign to find a hundred thousand plus third bucket kids kids

00:10:26.820 out of all school permanently not homeschool not pod school not physical school no school

00:10:32.100 we must be found immediately that's particular to ontario and then something like section 22 that

00:10:37.380 has allowed office of medical health to uh close schools and close businesses in a very decentralized way

00:10:44.180 we we uh advised for that to be rescinded in the ontario health protection promotion act

00:10:50.100 immediately on top of all of the restrictions vaccine passports but if you go to the north of

00:10:55.700 the country all of a sudden we sit we talk about international borders we talk about borders between

00:11:00.900 the territories very different realities because they they are completely isolated if you go to the

00:11:06.420 west of the country we have specific recommendations related to indigenous communities to to business and

00:11:13.780 and grants and loan guarantees we also announce a national uh canada walk for youth on april 3rd of

00:11:21.940 this year to really physically impose the youth who have suffered most during this pandemic of canada

00:11:28.020 to to get out in sports teams schools uh communities university level to show their force they are

00:11:34.580 the the future so the choreography you're right is very regional properly so because the pandemic has been

00:11:40.100 very variegated across the regions through time across eight systems let me go through the systems

00:11:45.860 quickly this covid public health non-covid public health there's education the economy institutions

00:11:52.740 national unity social fabric international one quick thing that people won't notice won't won't

00:11:58.500 recognize including decision makers is while we call for immediate uh removal of vaccination mandates

00:12:04.580 vaccination conditionality although continued new vaccination campaigns for the most immunosuppressed

00:12:11.220 immunocompromising agent when new vaccines come out for everyone else it's off to the races we're

00:12:18.580 learning we're studying immediately without fetish without without any zombie exit without anything

00:12:23.620 gradual immediate because we need that high energy but people don't realize that there are all these

00:12:28.660 vaccination impositions across the society that are out of control businesses schools private schools camps

00:12:36.100 universities sports clubs that are just being imposed and proliferated out of control mostly for

00:12:43.460 marketing or fetish purposes or ideological purposes and when the government stops the vaccination

00:12:48.420 mandates at the center these continue and they create huge chaos in the social fabric so all these

00:12:53.940 systems need to be understood in their totality and we call for an end to that again not for ideological

00:12:58.980 purposes but because that's over we're off to the races across the systems oh i mean obviously a lot of the

00:13:05.220 restrictions to do with travel to do with public servants to do with some of the national level

00:13:11.460 things like vaccine procurement or areas that are within the purview of the federal government a lot of

00:13:15.700 the things that you're pushing for when it comes to health care systems when it comes to education

00:13:20.420 are things that would have to be instituted at a provincial level and we know that premier's talk

00:13:25.620 the first ministers and the prime minister they all get together but when push comes to shove

00:13:29.780 how do you choreograph something when you're talking about 13 different governments not to mention

00:13:34.340 local and regional governments underneath that it's a great question on on the federal side just

00:13:39.620 strict federal powers obviously we are we advise and call for a reinstitution of federal control over

00:13:47.540 inter-provincial borders and those need to be removed physical borders regulatory borders psychological

00:13:53.940 borders let us never imagine in the future that provinces will just willy-nilly set up

00:13:58.980 inter-provincial borders that's proper and you're just talking about within the country there that's

00:14:02.900 within the country these are inter-provincial and provincial territorial borders that have been erected

00:14:08.740 willy-nilly by provinces and the federal government ceded that authority the federal government

00:14:13.380 will re-impose itself and rid the country of these internal borders because otherwise we don't have

00:14:18.100 a country we don't have a federation huge blockages to economic uh wealth and travel and psychological

00:14:24.500 unity but the federal government must bang heads the leaders are the provincial governments that have

00:14:30.420 imposed restrictions for a variety of interests and and and and purposes the federal government must

00:14:36.100 choreograph this exit by bringing everyone together and launching this national plan a lot of the

00:14:41.300 instruments are in the provincial hands some municipal but the federal government must declare for the

00:14:47.300 country as we've already allowed it to do through this national committee non-partisan that it's over

00:14:54.500 it's over because other countries have already said such our capacity to deal with any uh seasonal uptick is

00:15:04.820 plentiful and on a systems understanding canada has other fish to fry very serious ones

00:15:11.460 so the federal government has huge instruments has huge spending power still it has inter-provincial

00:15:16.580 it has international power and it controls huge institutions sectors like the banks all the all the

00:15:23.140 inter-provincial international transport sectors the north which in my other thinking is the future of

00:15:28.500 the country will open up a huge arteries of imagination and economic and social activity and that all of that is in Ottawa

00:15:36.180 one dimension of this roadmap that i i found quite fascinating because it's not something that's

00:15:43.700 gotten i'd say any substantive discussion is the rebuilding of institutional trust in Canada i think

00:15:50.820 certainly mistrust has been something we hear spoken about on an individual level and certainly in

00:15:55.940 media it's a discussion that i've had here on this show and elsewhere people not trusting public health

00:16:00.340 officials politicians and in many cases for good reason but you've actually put this specifically

00:16:05.860 front and center in the roadmap recovery of trust in institutions and also institutional efficacy so

00:16:12.180 it goes hand in hand i think the institutions need to be effective and they also need to communicate

00:16:16.740 that efficacy do you i mean first off do you agree with my assertion that this has not gotten nearly

00:16:22.660 enough attention and i guess more fundamentally how do you rebuild that trust correct it's not got enough

00:16:29.620 attention because some of the ones that need to provide the attention are the ones in whom attend uh

00:16:34.820 trust has been lost frankly so we start with the information space i don't want to call it the media

00:16:40.100 space i call the information space how canadians get their information how they feed information to

00:16:45.220 government how government feeds information to canadians over the last two years we've been unable to tell

00:16:51.300 our own stories our own realities it's also important that we it also explains why we do regional road

00:16:58.980 maps on top of the national one because the regions are so different amongst themselves and we're not

00:17:04.340 able to tell that diversity of experience to the central governments to media apparatus and based in

00:17:09.780 toronto and montreal who are not leaving zoom rooms so media is one of them huge deficiency in performance

00:17:17.540 over the last two years we can explain why but that needs to be reconsolidated if we're going to have

00:17:22.340 a country that is able to inform its decision makers about reality is on the ground and tell its own

00:17:27.860 stories to itself government governments in at all levels have essentially been operating in emergency

00:17:34.020 mode for two years leave aside the emergencies act in ottawa this emergency's power has is almost universal

00:17:41.460 it's by two or three people at the center of government in all the provincial capitals and the federal

00:17:46.980 capital making decrees by fiat for countries that that a country for a country they do not see that

00:17:56.100 is again the second largest in the world with those feedback mechanisms absent because the media itself

00:18:01.620 is not reporting properly the media itself is not leaving the zoom room and as a result regardless of

00:18:07.460 the intellect and good intention of the decision makers huge huge mistakes of public policy and

00:18:13.220 administration hence the eight crises of system we have in the country that are not seen in other

00:18:18.740 countries countries less developed or smaller they just did not collapse because they didn't collapse

00:18:24.420 the institutions and of course there are other institutions like if you want to call the emergency

00:18:28.580 or police services you have to wonder whether they'll come in some cases if you want to do banking

00:18:33.940 if there's a mistake in the banking if your account is frozen in in in in the current services what

00:18:39.220 are the appeal mechanisms if uh your child son or daughter is not being educated because of closures

00:18:46.260 in schools and the third bucket condition we talked about what is the appeal mechanism how do you get

00:18:51.140 information about how to re-educate your child this is all collapse of systems and institutions that were

00:18:56.740 foreign to us in 2019 and we have to carefully recon re-consolidate reconstitute these institutions if

00:19:02.660 we're going to have a country so as we talked about earlier this is something that you are driving

00:19:09.220 with your committee to advise the government governments do not like moving swiftly as we've

00:19:14.260 seen even with places like alberta and saskatchewan which have been more quick than other jurisdictions

00:19:19.860 to want to lift their vaccine passports and whatnot they are putting plans in place that take weeks to

00:19:25.780 months to do it so how do you with your data with your information go to governments and say no you

00:19:31.540 can do this immediately right so great great question again good questions as always andrew d

00:19:39.220 i want to for your distinguished listeners just disabuse them the idea that the exit is just removal

00:19:45.220 of restrictions well that but that is the first step that's where that's coming from it's it's a

00:19:49.460 concurrent step and why because we we say that at the very first box amongst hundreds of them

00:19:56.260 removal of all restrictions which provides over the immunos immunocompromised immunosuppressed why

00:20:03.220 not because i like or dislike restrictions because on the system's understanding we've collapsed all

00:20:08.660 the other ones and therefore we need to move with speed but if we were only to remove restrictions

00:20:13.460 we would still have 200 000 kids out of school still huge learning gaps we still have tens of thousands

00:20:18.420 of businesses disintegrated huge social conflict so we need to restitch all that as we remove

00:20:23.540 restrictions it's not remove restrictions and off she goes because that is continued chaos so government

00:20:29.700 needs to move on all systems beyond just removal of restrictions which is the negative step governments

00:20:35.860 are historically slow canada is extremely slow so we have to do things that are counterintuitive to us

00:20:42.020 when the medical officer of health of ontario kieran moore says i imagine my gut tells me that

00:20:48.340 the masks of students will be off at some point but later than the rest that's a gut that's that's

00:20:53.140 his gut talking he's talking to canadian there which is the gut it's not the gut the strategic

00:20:58.580 approach is we're off to the races why because our kids are two years behind on learning and many of

00:21:03.780 them are not in school why must we be off to the races in national unity through uncertain borders

00:21:09.460 because the country is falling apart in the centrifugal forces why must we be off to the race in the

00:21:14.980 economy because if we wait more businesses will disintegrate they don't stick around for you to

00:21:20.100 have a coffee and say i feel comfortable now lifting restrictions these are what i call twitter

00:21:25.380 or facebook positions but they're not strategic positions for a country like canada and therefore

00:21:30.500 we need to overcome the foolish instinct to to believe our twitter feed and say this is the structure

00:21:35.540 of our country this is the structure of the systems in collapse there are eight of them we need

00:21:39.940 to inject maximum energy at the front end in order for all of them to begin to reconsolidate and only

00:21:45.940 then might we in more difficult post-pandemic circumstance reach 2019 because we've collapsed way

00:21:52.580 beyond way before 2019 we remove everything today we're still not at 2019 quality of life

00:21:58.820 other countries are because they didn't collapse to the same extent

00:22:01.300 the report you can access at i21cq.com the institute for 21st century questions it is the product of the

00:22:11.380 canada science and policy committee to exit the pandemic the chair of that committee urban student

00:22:16.740 joins me now urban always a pleasure sir thanks for coming on today thank you i'm co-chair of quadro

00:22:21.460 caramontine doctor and and and we've uh brought the scientists and doctor and policy people together

00:22:26.500 and always a pleasure thanks andrew thanks for listening to the andrew lawton show

00:22:30.740 support the program by donating to true north at www.tnc.news

Juno News - February 26, 2022

Expert panel declares the pandemic in Canada over

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