This week, President Trump threatens to withdraw the United States of America from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada, and threatens to attack Iran's key oil export hub in the Strait of Hormuz, Karg Island. We talk to Joe Varner, Senior Fellow at the McDonnell-Laurier Institute, about the possibility of a ground invasion of the Iranian oil hub.
00:00:57.440But once Canada clearly outlines its direction
00:01:00.880and what it wants from the negotiations,
00:01:03.540I think that we can do some great things together.
00:01:08.140Well, this week, President Trump threatened to end the Kuzma trade deal,
00:01:12.040calling NAFTA the worst deal possible for the United States.
00:01:16.340Well, a humiliating cancellation of Doug Ford's reception in Washington, D.C. could be worn as a badge of honor, that according to one of Ford's cabinet ministers, Vic Fidelli was responding to media reports the reception was canceled under pressure from the White House.
00:04:58.100a whole lot of casualties. I mean, to your point, who knows what the military capacity is on that
00:05:05.440island? I guess the alternative is to flatten it. I think the Americans certainly have that
00:05:11.240capability, but I think what they prefer to do is just take it over and essentially, well,
00:05:16.640and Trump has made it clear, basically take over Iran's oil industry as it did Venezuela. That's
00:05:24.180according to the president himself that would be quite the move i mean if he could pull it off
00:05:29.940well i suspect he could pull it off um if if you wanted to i mean the united states has
00:05:36.420uh two uh groups of marines uh in the area and it's got i believe the 82nd airborne division
00:05:43.760elements of that in the area so they they probably have the forces to do it whether he's prepared to
00:05:49.200do that in the run-up to the midterms in the united states is another question and if he takes
00:05:55.440heavy casualties that will certainly impact him in the midterms and and other republican candidates
00:06:01.020so i suspect that you know you know an invasion of the island is probably not going to happen
00:06:07.560and i think that that it's likely that there will be bombing and and you know particular targets
00:06:14.540that are taken but but who knows at this stage uh trump has been looking for a deal to get out of
00:06:20.320this now for for weeks and he's shown the iranians that he'll do anything to get out
00:06:25.040and and the iranians are are waiting for him to get tired uh are they going to react if he
00:06:31.920seizes karg island or you know bombs it back to the stone age they're talking about uh he mentioned
00:06:38.300bridge day and power plant day yesterday as well. So are we going to see strikes on bridges and
00:06:45.900power plants today? And the Iranians will almost certainly retaliate.0.99
00:06:51.520Yeah, I mean, Iran's strategy seems to be rag the puck as long as it's humanly possible,0.91
00:06:57.980and drag this as close to the midterms as possible and have the Republicans pay the price0.88
00:07:03.920in November. And so we could see the pressure being put on Iran to sign a deal, sign a deal,
00:07:10.620sign a deal. And this could be this whole threat around Karg Island could be another negotiating0.55
00:07:17.700tactic on the part of Trump. I mean, we know he does that. If he acts like he wants to go for it,
00:07:24.100it might prompt the Iranians to say, OK, fine, you know, we'll sign a deal rather than potentially
00:07:29.960run the risk of losing that island to the Americans. And of course, as you mentioned,
00:07:34.44090% of their revenues, their oil traffic runs through that strip of land. It's narrowed just
00:07:41.66050 miles or so or something like that. I think 40, 50 miles from the Iranian mainland. And so
00:07:50.180it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think they're going to do it though. I think
00:07:55.720they're going to have to do it relatively soon. You don't want to hold back. You don't want to
00:07:59.300wait too long, do you? You're the Americans. Oh, and I suspect that it is an attempt to gain
00:08:08.460leverage. I don't know that I would telegraph the seizure of Kirk Island ahead of an operation to
00:08:15.020do that. I do think that the Americans are going to bomb them pretty well tonight, and I do think
00:08:20.540you're going to see a short and intense air campaign. Whether that will achieve the result
00:08:26.180is is another question but you're absolutely right the iranians have been ragging the puck
00:08:30.980they're not giving up their proxy militias they're not giving up their nuclear program
00:08:35.220they're not transferring their nuclear material anywhere uh and and they're not giving up their
00:08:41.380missiles or drones without a fight and the iranian revolutionary guard knows that you know if they
00:08:47.620give up and if they surrender and the people rise up uh their lives aren't worth a nickel
00:08:54.820and so you know they're they're entrenched the regime is entrenched and they're trying to wait
00:09:01.140trump out and i don't think in this case they're going to have an easy time because i think his
00:09:05.700patience has snapped would there be israeli troops used in something like this obviously there's
00:09:13.700a lot of sensitivity around this of the use of israeli ground troops in that part of the world
00:09:20.580in the gulf uh is that a possibility i think it's more likely that there will be intelligence
00:09:27.620sharing i would think the israelis have probably a good amount of intelligence and accurate
00:09:34.420intelligence on karg island and the seven islands in the straits four moves and i suspect that they
00:09:40.740will be sharing that with the americans but i don't think you'll see israeli ground troops
00:09:45.380on the ground on Karg Island or, or, or any of the seven others. I do think that you could see
00:09:52.860like the US Marines of the 82nd raid some of those seven islands and, and, and neutralize
00:10:00.020them. But I think Karg is a bit of a bigger pill to swallow. Yeah, I mean, there's also the thing0.75
00:10:09.420about whether you hold on to this island, how long do you hold on to it? I mean, is it does it just
00:10:14.020become another bargaining chip? Or could this be almost a permanent occupation of that strategic
00:10:20.340island going forward and actually controlling the oil that comes through that area?
00:10:28.780It'll be interesting to see what happens. I saw General Kellogg, a former advisor to Trump last
00:10:39.120night on television talking about um you know seize karg island i don't think seizing karg
00:10:45.920islands is simple but i you know it's it's in the realm of possibility how long you hold it depends
00:10:52.480on whether you get the regime change you need in iran and you get a cooperative regime and and
00:10:58.080until you know there is regime change in iran uh we're going to be at this uh off and on uh for the
00:11:07.120for the foreseeable future i mean i wonder why the trump administration is even pushing
00:11:14.720a deal i mean i understand but on the other hand if iran's capabilities military and otherwise
00:11:22.000have already been downgraded dramatically they don't have a navy left and their air
00:11:26.960force is wiped out and even their nuclear program has been set back god knows how long
00:11:33.680Even if they don't necessarily agree to end it all together, why not simply walk away and declare victory and say, we did what we wanted to do.
00:11:42.040You guys are in no position to fight back.
00:16:54.000And if all you did was, you know, mow the lawn, in Bibi Netanyahu's words, you know, thinking that, yeah, we'll probably have to hit them again in a year or two or five years down the road, then maybe Iran will have the opportunity to declare a victory, you know.0.94