Juno News - Ford returns from Washington empty-handed

00:00:00.000 Ending the KUSMA trade deal could be the start of an even better economic arrangement between

00:00:13.700 the United States and Canada. That, according to the U.S. ambassador, Pete Hoekstra spoke to

00:00:19.400 a business audience in Toronto and painted a rosy picture of what the future relationship

00:00:24.800 might look like if Canada plays its cards right.

00:00:28.580 We've invited Canada to be a partner in expanding and growing

00:00:34.720 all of the areas that we cooperate in today.

00:00:40.780 Expanding parts of our economy, agriculture, energy, transportation.

00:00:45.580 Yes, even autos, steel, aluminum, and defense.

00:00:49.560 Look forward to going through the negotiations

00:00:51.700 on some of the issues that we're talking about.

00:00:55.200 We're waiting for Canada to respond.

00:00:57.440 But once Canada clearly outlines its direction

00:01:00.880 and what it wants from the negotiations,

00:01:03.540 I think that we can do some great things together.

00:01:08.140 Well, this week, President Trump threatened to end the Kuzma trade deal,

00:01:12.040 calling NAFTA the worst deal possible for the United States.

00:01:16.340 Well, a humiliating cancellation of Doug Ford's reception in Washington, D.C. could be worn as a badge of honor, that according to one of Ford's cabinet ministers, Vic Fidelli was responding to media reports the reception was canceled under pressure from the White House.

00:01:35.720 Can I just add something?

00:01:40.400 If those rumors that President Trump canceled, forced the chamber to cancel the meeting are

00:01:47.300 true, then I think Premier Ford should be wearing that as a badge of honor.

00:01:51.720 I think the fact that he stood up, faced truth to power, I think that's standing up for Canada,

00:01:59.660 standing up for Ontario, and I think that's what this is all about.

00:02:05.720 Well, the backlash from the White House could be payback for Ford's repeated public attacks on Trump as a tyrant.

00:02:14.600 President Trump is eyeing a possible ground invasion of Karg Island, Iran's critical oil export hub.

00:02:23.540 The island is a critical bottleneck for almost all of Iran's oil wealth.

00:02:28.540 It handles 90% of Iran's crude oil exports with a capacity of around 7 million barrels a day.

00:02:37.360 Vowing to hit Iran militarily, Trump posted this on Truth Social.

00:02:42.720 At some point in the not-too-distant future, we will be taking Karg Island and other oil infrastructure points

00:02:51.620 and assume total control of their oil and gas markets, much like we have with Venezuela,

00:02:58.800 which is working out brilliantly for both Venezuela and the United States of America.

00:03:05.320 Our guest today is Joe Varner, senior fellow at the McDonnell-Laurier Institute.

00:03:10.680 Welcome, Joe.

00:03:11.980 Great to be back, Mark.

00:03:13.100 I mean, in a way, Karg Island has been in the crosshairs of the Trump administration from the start of the war.

00:03:22.340 It makes sense from a military vantage point.

00:03:26.780 Now, whether or not the American public will buy into the idea, because, of course, here we're talking about ground troops.

00:03:34.820 How do you see this playing out?

00:03:36.620 Well, I think in terms of Karag Island, it's the jewel in the crown for the Iranian

00:03:43.100 petrochemical industry. So 90% of their oil is exported out of that terminal. It's 50 miles

00:03:51.020 offshore. It should be fairly easy to isolate and, you know, to control. But I don't know

00:03:59.960 how many troops the Iranians have on Karag Island. I can tell you that it's allegedly 0.99

00:04:05.140 honeycomb with tunnels the beaches are covered with mines they have any aircraft defenses and

00:04:13.300 and they have anti-ship defenses so so it may be a tough nut to crack it's never never as easy as

00:04:20.580 it sounds on paper there are seven other islands in the strait of hormuz that also have detachments

00:04:28.420 of Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

00:04:30.740 That's who's allegedly on the island at Karg,

00:04:34.540 elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard,

00:04:37.640 and I'm not sure what that means.

00:04:40.720 But there are supposed to be detachments

00:04:44.200 on the other seven islands, 0.93

00:04:45.640 which the Iranians are using to control the Straits.

00:04:50.100 Yeah, and I don't think the U.S. public 1.00

00:04:52.360 is willing to sustain,

00:04:55.980 or has much of an appetite to sustain

00:04:58.100 a whole lot of casualties. I mean, to your point, who knows what the military capacity is on that

00:05:05.440 island? I guess the alternative is to flatten it. I think the Americans certainly have that

00:05:11.240 capability, but I think what they prefer to do is just take it over and essentially, well,

00:05:16.640 and Trump has made it clear, basically take over Iran's oil industry as it did Venezuela. That's

00:05:24.180 according to the president himself that would be quite the move i mean if he could pull it off

00:05:29.940 well i suspect he could pull it off um if if you wanted to i mean the united states has

00:05:36.420 uh two uh groups of marines uh in the area and it's got i believe the 82nd airborne division

00:05:43.760 elements of that in the area so they they probably have the forces to do it whether he's prepared to

00:05:49.200 do that in the run-up to the midterms in the united states is another question and if he takes

00:05:55.440 heavy casualties that will certainly impact him in the midterms and and other republican candidates

00:06:01.020 so i suspect that you know you know an invasion of the island is probably not going to happen

00:06:07.560 and i think that that it's likely that there will be bombing and and you know particular targets

00:06:14.540 that are taken but but who knows at this stage uh trump has been looking for a deal to get out of

00:06:20.320 this now for for weeks and he's shown the iranians that he'll do anything to get out

00:06:25.040 and and the iranians are are waiting for him to get tired uh are they going to react if he

00:06:31.920 seizes karg island or you know bombs it back to the stone age they're talking about uh he mentioned

00:06:38.300 bridge day and power plant day yesterday as well. So are we going to see strikes on bridges and

00:06:45.900 power plants today? And the Iranians will almost certainly retaliate. 0.99

00:06:51.520 Yeah, I mean, Iran's strategy seems to be rag the puck as long as it's humanly possible, 0.91

00:06:57.980 and drag this as close to the midterms as possible and have the Republicans pay the price 0.88

00:07:03.920 in November. And so we could see the pressure being put on Iran to sign a deal, sign a deal,

00:07:10.620 sign a deal. And this could be this whole threat around Karg Island could be another negotiating 0.55

00:07:17.700 tactic on the part of Trump. I mean, we know he does that. If he acts like he wants to go for it,

00:07:24.100 it might prompt the Iranians to say, OK, fine, you know, we'll sign a deal rather than potentially

00:07:29.960 run the risk of losing that island to the Americans. And of course, as you mentioned,

00:07:34.440 90% of their revenues, their oil traffic runs through that strip of land. It's narrowed just

00:07:41.660 50 miles or so or something like that. I think 40, 50 miles from the Iranian mainland. And so

00:07:50.180 it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think they're going to do it though. I think

00:07:55.720 they're going to have to do it relatively soon. You don't want to hold back. You don't want to

00:07:59.300 wait too long, do you? You're the Americans. Oh, and I suspect that it is an attempt to gain

00:08:08.460 leverage. I don't know that I would telegraph the seizure of Kirk Island ahead of an operation to

00:08:15.020 do that. I do think that the Americans are going to bomb them pretty well tonight, and I do think

00:08:20.540 you're going to see a short and intense air campaign. Whether that will achieve the result

00:08:26.180 is is another question but you're absolutely right the iranians have been ragging the puck

00:08:30.980 they're not giving up their proxy militias they're not giving up their nuclear program

00:08:35.220 they're not transferring their nuclear material anywhere uh and and they're not giving up their

00:08:41.380 missiles or drones without a fight and the iranian revolutionary guard knows that you know if they

00:08:47.620 give up and if they surrender and the people rise up uh their lives aren't worth a nickel

00:08:54.820 and so you know they're they're entrenched the regime is entrenched and they're trying to wait

00:09:01.140 trump out and i don't think in this case they're going to have an easy time because i think his

00:09:05.700 patience has snapped would there be israeli troops used in something like this obviously there's

00:09:13.700 a lot of sensitivity around this of the use of israeli ground troops in that part of the world

00:09:20.580 in the gulf uh is that a possibility i think it's more likely that there will be intelligence

00:09:27.620 sharing i would think the israelis have probably a good amount of intelligence and accurate

00:09:34.420 intelligence on karg island and the seven islands in the straits four moves and i suspect that they

00:09:40.740 will be sharing that with the americans but i don't think you'll see israeli ground troops

00:09:45.380 on the ground on Karg Island or, or, or any of the seven others. I do think that you could see

00:09:52.860 like the US Marines of the 82nd raid some of those seven islands and, and, and neutralize

00:10:00.020 them. But I think Karg is a bit of a bigger pill to swallow. Yeah, I mean, there's also the thing 0.75

00:10:09.420 about whether you hold on to this island, how long do you hold on to it? I mean, is it does it just

00:10:14.020 become another bargaining chip? Or could this be almost a permanent occupation of that strategic

00:10:20.340 island going forward and actually controlling the oil that comes through that area?

00:10:28.780 It'll be interesting to see what happens. I saw General Kellogg, a former advisor to Trump last

00:10:39.120 night on television talking about um you know seize karg island i don't think seizing karg

00:10:45.920 islands is simple but i you know it's it's in the realm of possibility how long you hold it depends

00:10:52.480 on whether you get the regime change you need in iran and you get a cooperative regime and and

00:10:58.080 until you know there is regime change in iran uh we're going to be at this uh off and on uh for the

00:11:07.120 for the foreseeable future i mean i wonder why the trump administration is even pushing

00:11:14.720 a deal i mean i understand but on the other hand if iran's capabilities military and otherwise

00:11:22.000 have already been downgraded dramatically they don't have a navy left and their air

00:11:26.960 force is wiped out and even their nuclear program has been set back god knows how long

00:11:33.680 Even if they don't necessarily agree to end it all together, why not simply walk away and declare victory and say, we did what we wanted to do.

00:11:42.040 You guys are in no position to fight back.

00:11:45.400 We're done.

00:11:46.060 We're out of here.

00:11:46.900 Why not just say that rather than insist that Iran sit down and agree to something? 0.62

00:11:53.800 Well, I think that that, in fact, was the plan.

00:11:56.960 And I think that Trump actually thought that he could do that.

00:11:59.800 And I think the problem for Trump is twofold.

00:12:03.680 first, he has to have a better situation with Iran than the deal that Barack Obama had that

00:12:12.780 Trump heavily criticized. And that will definitely play in the midterm elections.

00:12:18.960 If he comes out in a lesser situation when the Iranians control the Gulf, and that's the other 0.93

00:12:23.880 thing, I guess it's a threefold problem. You can't leave Iran controlling segments of the Gulf 0.99

00:12:31.760 or the Strait of Hormuz. 0.93

00:12:35.520 I think the other thing that's going on now,

00:12:38.320 and you saw it in the last few days,

00:12:41.820 you know, Trump's like,

00:12:45.040 we're going to make a deal, we're going to make a deal,

00:12:46.460 we're going to make a deal. 0.99

00:12:48.520 The Iranians then decide to strike Israel 0.91

00:12:51.460 with 20 or 21 ballistic missiles.

00:12:56.780 The Israelis respond.

00:12:58.660 iran then comes back with even tighter controls that they'd like to see on on israel like complete

00:13:06.300 capitulation in lebanon which isn't going to happen and and then they decide to take down

00:13:12.760 a u.s helicopter over the over the persian gulf or the or the the sea of omad um

00:13:19.380 iran has become very unpredictable and and very aggressive and actually thinks that they're

00:13:28.040 winning. They're very overconfident. And this impacts U.S. deterrence. And I think that's why

00:13:34.920 Trump had to finally respond with some serious strikes on Iranian capabilities.

00:13:43.140 Because it's not just deterrence in the Gulf. It's not just deterrence in the Middle East. 0.63

00:13:48.800 It'll end up being deterrence in Asia, probably around Taiwan or the Philippines, 0.99

00:13:54.060 or the Senkakos that belong to Japan, 0.61

00:13:56.820 and it will be deterrence in Europe against Russia.

00:14:01.720 American credibility is now on the line,

00:14:04.440 I think, in a way that hasn't been a long time.

00:14:06.840 And I don't think that he can walk away.

00:14:09.280 I think he tried, but I think he's stuck.

00:14:13.640 Should Canada take a position on an attack on Karg Island

00:14:17.280 or stay out of it?

00:14:19.240 What should Canada do here, if anything?

00:14:22.120 well canada's canada's position throughout this has changed repeatedly so uh i think it's it's

00:14:29.640 unlikely that we'll take a position on on karg island um and if we do it'll be that you know

00:14:36.360 it's a violation of international law or some some other silly thing uh you know because iran's

00:14:42.600 violated international law for 47 years uh more honored in the in the breach than it is in in

00:14:48.920 uh in in reality um so i think you know it's it's canada's position probably should revolve around

00:15:01.080 when things do settle joining the french and british uh coalition that goes in to uh patrol

00:15:09.640 the gulf and the straits and and for canada to do that it has to pre-position some equipment

00:15:15.000 and we haven't done that that i know of yet but i think that that would be a prudent move some of

00:15:20.040 the other european countries have started to kind of move things around to get ready in the event

00:15:25.000 that that happens and i think you know you're liable given the strikes in the last uh two or

00:15:31.800 three days they've concentrated on the southern coast they've concentrated on those islands

00:15:37.240 the irgc ports air defenses radar and drone and and missile uh uh uh control points and i think

00:15:48.120 that you know sooner or later the us will force open the strait of hormones i don't think they

00:15:52.920 have any choice in that and and that'll mean a heavy pounding of that southern coast

00:15:58.600 and and then you know maybe we have enough um uh freedom to get in and get out i mean ships

00:16:05.880 are getting in and out of the straight of hormuz but you know they're also getting hit

00:16:12.440 you know some of them not all of them yeah i was just going to mention that fact that

00:16:19.240 um oil is moving obviously not at the rate that it was but it seems to be enough to keep oil at

00:16:27.800 at least under or around $90 rather than $120.

00:16:32.440 But it'll be interesting seeing what happens next

00:16:35.740 in terms of this whole war

00:16:38.780 because most Americans are getting tired of it.

00:16:42.200 A lot of Americans are getting tired of it.

00:16:44.560 And I'm sure Trump, too, has had enough

00:16:47.340 and wants to wrap this up.

00:16:49.380 Unfortunately, you want to be able to walk away

00:16:52.580 having accomplished something. 0.97

00:16:54.000 And if all you did was, you know, mow the lawn, in Bibi Netanyahu's words, you know, thinking that, yeah, we'll probably have to hit them again in a year or two or five years down the road, then maybe Iran will have the opportunity to declare a victory, you know. 0.94

00:17:14.520 Last word to you. 0.93

00:17:16.360 Iran will declare a victory if the United States does not decisively defeat them and bring down their regime. 0.91

00:17:22.680 that is a for certain and that is something trump will have to live with ahead of them in terms so 0.86

00:17:28.920 he has no choice i think the best thing the united states can do for the region for the people of

00:17:34.680 iran for the people the united states and for israel and and anyone that's dependent on oil

00:17:41.320 coming out of the gulf is to put an end to this now joe varner thank you so much for coming on

00:17:47.320 on the show. We appreciate it as always. Thank you, sir. If you enjoyed the show, please consider

00:17:53.520 supporting independent journalism by becoming a premier member of Juno News. Please go to

00:17:58.740 junonews.com backslash straight up. You can find the link below. It helps us do what we do. Thank

00:18:04.440 you so much for tuning in. We'll see you again.

Juno News - June 12, 2026

Ford returns from Washington empty-handed

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