00:00:57.440But once Canada clearly outlines its direction
00:01:00.880and what it wants from the negotiations,
00:01:03.540I think that we can do some great things together.
00:01:08.140Well, this week, President Trump threatened to end the Kuzma trade deal,
00:01:12.040calling NAFTA the worst deal possible for the United States.
00:01:16.340Well, a humiliating cancellation of Doug Ford's reception in Washington, D.C. could be worn as a badge of honor, that according to one of Ford's cabinet ministers, Vic Fidelli was responding to media reports the reception was canceled under pressure from the White House.
00:04:58.100a whole lot of casualties. I mean, to your point, who knows what the military capacity is on that
00:05:05.440island? I guess the alternative is to flatten it. I think the Americans certainly have that
00:05:11.240capability, but I think what they prefer to do is just take it over and essentially, well,
00:05:16.640and Trump has made it clear, basically take over Iran's oil industry as it did Venezuela. That's
00:05:24.180according to the president himself that would be quite the move i mean if he could pull it off
00:05:29.940well i suspect he could pull it off um if if you wanted to i mean the united states has
00:05:36.420uh two uh groups of marines uh in the area and it's got i believe the 82nd airborne division
00:05:43.760elements of that in the area so they they probably have the forces to do it whether he's prepared to
00:05:49.200do that in the run-up to the midterms in the united states is another question and if he takes
00:05:55.440heavy casualties that will certainly impact him in the midterms and and other republican candidates
00:06:01.020so i suspect that you know you know an invasion of the island is probably not going to happen
00:06:07.560and i think that that it's likely that there will be bombing and and you know particular targets
00:06:14.540that are taken but but who knows at this stage uh trump has been looking for a deal to get out of
00:06:20.320this now for for weeks and he's shown the iranians that he'll do anything to get out
00:06:25.040and and the iranians are are waiting for him to get tired uh are they going to react if he
00:06:31.920seizes karg island or you know bombs it back to the stone age they're talking about uh he mentioned
00:06:38.300bridge day and power plant day yesterday as well. So are we going to see strikes on bridges and
00:06:45.900power plants today? And the Iranians will almost certainly retaliate.0.99
00:06:51.520Yeah, I mean, Iran's strategy seems to be rag the puck as long as it's humanly possible,0.91
00:06:57.980and drag this as close to the midterms as possible and have the Republicans pay the price0.88
00:07:03.920in November. And so we could see the pressure being put on Iran to sign a deal, sign a deal,
00:07:10.620sign a deal. And this could be this whole threat around Karg Island could be another negotiating0.55
00:07:17.700tactic on the part of Trump. I mean, we know he does that. If he acts like he wants to go for it,
00:07:24.100it might prompt the Iranians to say, OK, fine, you know, we'll sign a deal rather than potentially
00:07:29.960run the risk of losing that island to the Americans. And of course, as you mentioned,
00:07:34.44090% of their revenues, their oil traffic runs through that strip of land. It's narrowed just
00:07:41.66050 miles or so or something like that. I think 40, 50 miles from the Iranian mainland. And so
00:07:50.180it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I think they're going to do it though. I think
00:07:55.720they're going to have to do it relatively soon. You don't want to hold back. You don't want to
00:07:59.300wait too long, do you? You're the Americans. Oh, and I suspect that it is an attempt to gain
00:08:08.460leverage. I don't know that I would telegraph the seizure of Kirk Island ahead of an operation to
00:08:15.020do that. I do think that the Americans are going to bomb them pretty well tonight, and I do think
00:08:20.540you're going to see a short and intense air campaign. Whether that will achieve the result
00:08:26.180is is another question but you're absolutely right the iranians have been ragging the puck
00:08:30.980they're not giving up their proxy militias they're not giving up their nuclear program
00:08:35.220they're not transferring their nuclear material anywhere uh and and they're not giving up their
00:08:41.380missiles or drones without a fight and the iranian revolutionary guard knows that you know if they
00:08:47.620give up and if they surrender and the people rise up uh their lives aren't worth a nickel
00:08:54.820and so you know they're they're entrenched the regime is entrenched and they're trying to wait
00:09:01.140trump out and i don't think in this case they're going to have an easy time because i think his
00:09:05.700patience has snapped would there be israeli troops used in something like this obviously there's
00:09:13.700a lot of sensitivity around this of the use of israeli ground troops in that part of the world
00:09:20.580in the gulf uh is that a possibility i think it's more likely that there will be intelligence
00:09:27.620sharing i would think the israelis have probably a good amount of intelligence and accurate
00:09:34.420intelligence on karg island and the seven islands in the straits four moves and i suspect that they
00:09:40.740will be sharing that with the americans but i don't think you'll see israeli ground troops
00:09:45.380on the ground on Karg Island or, or, or any of the seven others. I do think that you could see
00:09:52.860like the US Marines of the 82nd raid some of those seven islands and, and, and neutralize
00:10:00.020them. But I think Karg is a bit of a bigger pill to swallow. Yeah, I mean, there's also the thing0.75
00:10:09.420about whether you hold on to this island, how long do you hold on to it? I mean, is it does it just
00:10:14.020become another bargaining chip? Or could this be almost a permanent occupation of that strategic
00:10:20.340island going forward and actually controlling the oil that comes through that area?
00:10:28.780It'll be interesting to see what happens. I saw General Kellogg, a former advisor to Trump last
00:10:39.120night on television talking about um you know seize karg island i don't think seizing karg
00:10:45.920islands is simple but i you know it's it's in the realm of possibility how long you hold it depends
00:10:52.480on whether you get the regime change you need in iran and you get a cooperative regime and and
00:10:58.080until you know there is regime change in iran uh we're going to be at this uh off and on uh for the
00:11:07.120for the foreseeable future i mean i wonder why the trump administration is even pushing
00:11:14.720a deal i mean i understand but on the other hand if iran's capabilities military and otherwise
00:11:22.000have already been downgraded dramatically they don't have a navy left and their air
00:11:26.960force is wiped out and even their nuclear program has been set back god knows how long
00:11:33.680Even if they don't necessarily agree to end it all together, why not simply walk away and declare victory and say, we did what we wanted to do.
00:11:42.040You guys are in no position to fight back.
00:16:54.000And if all you did was, you know, mow the lawn, in Bibi Netanyahu's words, you know, thinking that, yeah, we'll probably have to hit them again in a year or two or five years down the road, then maybe Iran will have the opportunity to declare a victory, you know.0.94