ManoWhisper
Home
Shows
About
Search
Juno News
- August 19, 2020
Going Prorogue
Episode Stats
Length
29 minutes
Words per Minute
177.31635
Word Count
5,155
Sentence Count
273
Misogynist Sentences
9
Hate Speech Sentences
3
Summary
Summaries are generated with
gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ
.
Transcript
Transcript is generated with
Whisper
(
turbo
).
Misogyny classification is done with
MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny
.
Hate speech classification is done with
facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target
.
00:00:00.000
Welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.
00:00:06.660
This is the Andrew Lawton Show, brought to you by True North.
00:00:12.940
Coming up, the politics of prorogation and Justin Trudeau's double standard.
00:00:17.960
Also, Morneau's departure and Finance Minister Christia Freeland.
00:00:24.140
The Andrew Lawton Show starts right now.
00:00:30.000
To prorogue or not to prorogue, that is the question.
00:00:35.020
And the answer seems to depend more on partisanship than integrity.
00:00:39.960
Justin Trudeau has prorogued Parliament, effectively killing the investigation into WE,
00:00:45.920
killing a number of government bills, killing the parliamentary process until September.
00:00:51.080
Just a little over a one-month reset, which really serves no other purpose
00:00:56.240
than to hope Canadians forget about everything that's been happening in Canadian politics
00:01:00.700
and specifically in Parliament for the last few months.
00:01:04.300
But what I find baffling about this, and maybe not baffling, that's probably not the right word,
00:01:09.040
what I find audacious about this is that the Liberals have been the ones that,
00:01:14.460
going back as far as 2008, were jumping up and down,
00:01:17.340
saying that prorogation is not at all business as usual,
00:01:20.540
and prorogation is not at all a good thing.
00:01:23.200
And now that Justin Trudeau is doing it, it's supposedly just dandy.
00:01:29.040
Now, prorogue is a word that most people don't know.
00:01:32.940
And in the sense that we're talking about it now, let me be frank,
00:01:35.940
normal people don't talk like this.
00:01:37.720
Normal people don't use words like prorogue or prorogation.
00:01:41.220
It's specifically a parliamentary term in this context.
00:01:45.280
And in 2008, most people learned of it for the first time when Stephen Harper prorogued Parliament
00:01:51.360
to avoid what looked like it was going to be this unholy alliance of the Liberals,
00:01:56.220
the NDP, and the Bloc Québécois.
00:01:58.120
You remember that famous handshake and photo between the leaders of the three parties,
00:02:03.080
Stéphane Dion and Jack Layton and Gilles Duceppe after the 2008 election.
00:02:09.080
And Stephen Harper didn't want to go and have a coalition government.
00:02:12.940
He prorogued and then came back a couple of months later and let cooler heads prevail.
00:02:18.160
Now, this was seen by the left as being just a brazen assault on democracy.
00:02:24.180
How dare the prime minister avoid a vote that would trigger the downfall of the government
00:02:29.220
by proroguing?
00:02:30.740
And now you fast forward to it.
00:02:32.740
And Justin Trudeau, who has, by the way, one party calling for his resignation in the
00:02:38.300
Bloc Québécois, the Conservatives, for whom a couple of the leadership candidates,
00:02:42.940
have said they want to push for an election at the earliest opportunity, meaning the NDP
00:02:47.600
could, if it joins with these other parties, support that downfall of government.
00:02:53.100
So Justin Trudeau, I don't think, is going to be losing his job as prime minister.
00:02:58.240
I don't think he was going to be this summer.
00:03:00.320
But it was a possibility that the downfall of the Liberal government could have happened.
00:03:05.240
So now he's prorogued in the midst of scandal.
00:03:08.680
And yes, in the midst of investigating scandal, the committee czar, and investigating Liberal
00:03:14.800
scandal specifically, because, you know, what other kind is there right now in Canada?
00:03:19.040
He's saying, you know what, we're going to walk things back and, you know, going to come
00:03:23.240
back.
00:03:23.780
And when we come back, we're going to have a throne speech and a budget.
00:03:27.480
Now, this is assuming the Governor General has hung around until then, although that's
00:03:33.320
a different discussion altogether.
00:03:35.440
But the thing that I, like, it is truly disgusting, the pretzel twist that people will put themselves
00:03:45.040
into to try to defend what they're doing as not being hypocritical.
00:03:50.120
Justin Trudeau has had some very strong words about prorogation in the past.
00:03:55.200
Two prorogations in two years, the first to avoid a vote of non-confidence that would
00:04:03.820
have surely brought this government down, the second to avoid difficult questions.
00:04:12.460
Anyone who disagrees with this government gets pushed aside.
00:04:17.500
The challenge becomes that he gets to use every tribune he can use, all the media, all the
00:04:28.400
voices, all the attention, and gets to further marginalize people who disagree with him.
00:04:34.900
That's why we're talking about prorogation today.
00:04:38.340
That's why we want Canadians to go into this summer remembering that this is not a government
00:04:45.740
who values their voices.
00:04:47.960
Not a government who accepts easily the legitimacy that exists in every member sitting in this
00:04:57.680
House who is duly elected by the people they strive to represent.
00:05:02.580
But now he says it's all good.
00:05:04.800
Now he says it's different than what Harper did in 2008 because Harper did it to avoid
00:05:09.820
a confidence vote, whereas Justin Trudeau is expecting that there will be a confidence
00:05:14.120
vote when the House resumes in the fall.
00:05:16.400
This is legitimately his defense that, oh, well, I'm doing it for different reasons, so
00:05:21.100
it's all fine.
00:05:22.420
Stephen Harper and the Conservatives prorogued Parliament in order to shut it down and avoid
00:05:29.660
a confidence vote. We are proroguing Parliament to bring it back on exactly the same week it
00:05:36.720
was supposed to come back anyway and force a confidence vote.
00:05:42.180
We are taking a moment to recognize that the throne speech we delivered eight months ago had
00:05:48.040
no mention of COVID-19, had no conception of the reality we find ourselves in right now.
00:05:56.420
We need to reset the approach of this government for a recovery, to build back better, and those
00:06:02.200
are big, important decisions, and we need to present that to Parliament and gain the confidence
00:06:08.360
of Parliament to move forward on this ambitious plan.
00:06:12.020
The prorogation we are doing right now is about gaining or testing the confidence of the
00:06:17.720
House, which is the opposite of what the Conservatives did that we rightly railed against back in 2015.
00:06:23.420
And incidentally, there's this little nugget, as Brian Lilly called it when he posted it
00:06:29.560
on Twitter, from the Liberals' 2015 platform under a section called Prorogation and Omnibus
00:06:35.640
Bills, and it says, quote, we will not resort to legislative tricks to avoid scrutiny.
00:06:41.400
Stephen Harper has used prorogation to avoid difficult political circumstances.
00:06:46.020
We will not.
00:06:47.620
So, again, not as advertised is a pretty good way of describing Justin Trudeau, but again,
00:06:53.900
it goes back to his whole narrative and that of all of the Liberal defenders that it's different
00:06:58.100
when we do it.
00:06:59.300
That is Justin Trudeau's guiding principle.
00:07:01.880
It's different when we do it.
00:07:02.980
Everything Stephen Harper did was wrong, but everything we did was for pure, moral, justifiable
00:07:08.240
reasons, even if it's pretty much the same thing.
00:07:10.420
And, you know, listen, you could make an argument against Stephen Harper's coalition on the grounds
00:07:15.240
that, yes, he was trying to avoid a vote, but there was also going to be a vote that would
00:07:21.540
have circumvented an election that had just happened.
00:07:25.440
In Justin Trudeau's case, it's not just the confidence vote that we should be concerned
00:07:30.080
about that is being avoided because, yes, that will happen when Parliament goes back in
00:07:34.900
the fall.
00:07:35.700
The bigger issue here is that we're looking at an ongoing investigation, a finance probe.
00:07:41.940
Now, Trudeau is insisting that parts of it are still going to continue, that documents
00:07:45.480
have been handed over, and that may be so, but it doesn't change the fact that any ability
00:07:51.760
for Parliament to deal with this, and more importantly, any ability for the new leader of
00:07:57.160
the Conservative Party of Canada to have a role in Parliament more quickly, more imminently,
00:08:02.700
is gone, is gone.
00:08:04.440
So Trudeau is actually taking the opposition out of play, and I don't just mean the Conservatives,
00:08:09.980
but all of the mechanisms of the opposition, the Conservatives, the Bloc, and even, yeah,
00:08:14.440
the NDP, he's taking them out of play, doing exactly what he wanted to do at the very beginning
00:08:19.700
of this pandemic, which was to basically say, you know what, we're going to do things extra
00:08:24.820
parliamentar, extra parliamentarily, that's the term I'll make up right now.
00:08:29.100
We're going to do things outside of the parliamentary process, and this is where, again, the Prime
00:08:33.900
Minister tries to become a king.
00:08:35.560
So we are, as Canadians now, looking at something that is not insignificant, and I don't want
00:08:42.220
people to get buried down in the weeds about the importance of, you know, parliamentary procedure
00:08:48.440
and all of this stuff, because, yeah, if you're a dork like me and you want to pay attention
00:08:52.120
to that, you can.
00:08:52.980
But even if you never use the word prorogue again, understand that in this context, what
00:08:59.080
Justin Trudeau is doing is trying to immunize himself from all of the things that are happening
00:09:04.460
right now, and from the House of Cards that, in many respects, seems like it is falling down
00:09:09.960
upon his head at this very moment.
00:09:13.320
And if you don't believe that's happening, just look at what preceded the prorogation, which
00:09:18.780
is the departure of his finance minister, who's been his finance minister since the very beginning
00:09:23.980
of the Trudeau government back in 2015, Bill Morneau.
00:09:27.720
And on Monday, I started in a very facetious way.
00:09:31.420
I said, you know, Minister Morneau, blink twice if you need help, blink three times if you're
00:09:35.460
okay.
00:09:36.140
And it's amazing how true that ended up being.
00:09:38.800
I was concerned because I pre-recorded the show.
00:09:41.540
We don't do it live always.
00:09:42.700
But I was concerned, is the show that I do going to be dated by the time it comes out?
00:09:49.040
Because I knew that as I was recording, Justin Trudeau and Bill Morneau were having their,
00:09:53.280
you know, secret meeting on Parliament Hill.
00:09:55.760
And I was a bit worried.
00:09:57.200
And thankfully, he didn't.
00:09:58.040
I mean, the show came out and still we didn't have any insight about what was going to happen.
00:10:02.180
And then it was a couple of hours later that Bill Morneau gets up and says he's resigning,
00:10:06.760
not just as finance minister, but also as a member of Parliament.
00:10:10.960
So he's tapping out.
00:10:12.420
Bill Morneau is gone.
00:10:13.820
And the thing that we should see about this as being particularly insidious is that the
00:10:19.220
Liberals pretend that this was always planned, that there was, you know, no issue, no time
00:10:24.380
sensitive nature.
00:10:25.300
Morneau himself, when he was speaking, it said, oh, you know, I was always going to, you
00:10:29.140
know, not serve more than two terms, even though I'm not convinced he's ever said that
00:10:33.160
publicly before.
00:10:34.220
It may be true that he was never going to be elected more than twice, but I've never heard
00:10:38.400
him say that.
00:10:39.120
And he then comes out and says, oh, you know, it's just this was the time.
00:10:43.160
And, you know, we need a finance minister that has the longer term interests of Canada
00:10:47.460
in mind as we look forward to a long term recovery for coronavirus.
00:10:52.400
So his departure, if you listen to it, is basically something that we're supposed to think is just
00:10:59.260
entirely insignificant.
00:11:00.660
Take a listen.
00:11:01.720
I met with the prime minister today to inform him that I did not intend to run again in
00:11:07.280
the next federal election.
00:11:09.260
It's never been my plan to run for more than two federal election cycles.
00:11:13.940
As we move to the next phase of our fight against the pandemic and pave the road towards economic
00:11:21.960
recovery, we must recognize that this process will take many years.
00:11:26.960
It's the right time for a new finance minister to deliver on that plan for the long and challenging
00:11:33.060
road ahead.
00:11:33.660
That's why I'll be stepping down as finance minister and as member of parliament for Toronto
00:11:39.000
Centre.
00:11:39.320
But this is coming after days of leaks from presumably the prime minister's office and
00:11:45.680
the former finance minister's office about all the reasons that Justin Trudeau and Bill
00:11:50.260
Morneau aren't getting along, all the things that they're arguing on, whether it was green
00:11:54.460
energy programs, coronavirus recovery, deficits, all of these other things.
00:11:59.560
And this is apparently completely insignificant.
00:12:02.420
No one cares about that.
00:12:03.400
It's not about the WE scandal.
00:12:04.580
It's not about the $41,000 in travel that Morneau took from WE and only three years later
00:12:10.160
decided, hmm, maybe I should pay that back here, you know, just have some pocket change.
00:12:14.180
It's nothing to do with that.
00:12:15.340
That was all just coincidence.
00:12:16.800
This is just because Bill Morneau wants to run for the OECD.
00:12:20.440
No, no, no, not the OECD, the OECD.
00:12:23.660
You have to listen really carefully in these days.
00:12:26.180
Although, who knows?
00:12:27.220
Maybe like everything else Bill Morneau touches, it will turn into a WE enterprise before long.
00:12:33.620
But at this point, it's not the OECD, it's just the OECD.
00:12:37.980
But Bill Morneau saying he wants the Secretary General job, Justin Trudeau saying he'll throw
00:12:42.800
the full support of the Canadian government behind that.
00:12:45.440
We are supposed to take that as a sign that, oh, see, everything is fine.
00:12:51.260
You don't tap out of a financial crisis as finance minister in a country the size of Canada
00:12:58.640
unless you have to.
00:13:01.800
He claims that he was not asked to leave by Justin Trudeau.
00:13:05.940
He claims he was not asked to leave.
00:13:07.680
But here's what was interesting.
00:13:09.120
Justin Trudeau was asked at a press conference, I think it was the next day, if he asked him
00:13:13.200
to stay on and he didn't give an answer.
00:13:15.800
So it doesn't sound like there was much of a choice here.
00:13:20.500
It doesn't sound like there was much of an alternative to Morneau leaving.
00:13:24.640
And this has happened in a long string.
00:13:27.020
I know we focus on Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott, but there have been a long string
00:13:32.420
of ministers that have not been able to stick around working for Justin Trudeau.
00:13:37.160
Going back to, I think, his very first year in office, John McCallum and Stephane Dion.
00:13:41.940
You've had Scott Bryson leave.
00:13:43.440
You've had numerous, numerous ministers that have left, all under varying degrees of circumstances
00:13:50.120
and severity of those circumstances, but still we're not talking about as cohesive a cabinet
00:13:55.500
as Justin Trudeau is trying to make everyone believe.
00:13:59.540
So when Morneau leaves, tries to say that everything's fine, I am as a Canadian, I am as
00:14:06.000
a journalist looking at this and saying this does not happen unless it has to.
00:14:10.960
And, you know, for them to try to say that the leaks of all of these fights don't matter
00:14:15.880
is actually pretty brazen.
00:14:18.660
And Bill Morneau himself just said, this was, I'll roll the clip, but he just said, oh,
00:14:22.420
no, no, no, this was nothing.
00:14:23.440
This was just, you know, the vigorous debate that we need to stand up for Canadians.
00:14:27.780
I had a constructive conversation with the prime minister this morning.
00:14:32.440
We have always worked together over the course of the last five years in a way that recognized
00:14:38.020
the importance of vigorous discussion and debate to get to the best policies for Canadians.
00:14:43.200
I'm proud of what we've done over the last five years, working to make sure that we have
00:14:47.580
a more inclusive economy, that we have a greener economy.
00:14:50.260
And I know that work will continue.
00:14:52.240
So, I mean, yes, vigorous debate's important.
00:14:54.460
And obviously you want ministers that are prepared to push back.
00:14:57.940
And once they reach a decision, everyone has to be a united front.
00:15:01.200
I don't think anyone disagrees in principle with that.
00:15:04.220
But there is a difference between what he is saying as far as, oh, you know, we didn't
00:15:09.980
really have any disagreements that were substantive and all of the media coverage of that growing
00:15:17.360
rift and that growing schism between the two of them, none of which has actually been denied.
00:15:23.360
This is the thing, none of which has actually been denied.
00:15:25.760
So for the Morneau-Trudeau team to just put on the happy face and say, no, everything's
00:15:30.640
good and, you know, Morneau's seeking a promotion, he's going to be the secretary general, and
00:15:34.900
gave that just abysmal line that just makes me cringe and want to like shove a hammer through
00:15:39.420
my eye.
00:15:40.180
I don't even know what that would look like, but it wouldn't be good to say, oh, we need
00:15:43.640
more Canada in the world, not less.
00:15:45.600
I'm like, can you do anything without resorting to the most useless and ridiculous of platitudes?
00:15:50.860
The answer is clearly no.
00:15:52.140
So I don't know why I ask.
00:15:54.240
But in any case, so Morneau's gone.
00:15:56.920
And who do we get?
00:15:57.880
Dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun, dun.
00:16:01.480
Chrystia Freeland coming.
00:16:02.840
Yes, that's the circus music, because this is exactly what's happening.
00:16:06.760
So she is just juggling as many different roles and portfolios as possible.
00:16:11.480
Chrystia Freeland, deputy prime minister still, and now also finance minister, which is absolutely
00:16:17.820
fantastic.
00:16:18.520
We have the first female finance minister.
00:16:21.020
The downside is we also have the first Chrystia Freeland finance minister, which is the bigger
00:16:25.920
problem.
00:16:26.840
So here's a woman who has no experience in finance at all.
00:16:32.760
She has no real business experience either.
00:16:35.900
She was a reporter.
00:16:37.600
I mean, she wasn't even a business reporter.
00:16:39.220
She was, you know, a reporter interviewing Russian oligarchs, which I suppose maybe you
00:16:43.960
pick up some business acumen there.
00:16:45.800
And then she was responsible for a business project at Reuters that was absolutely driven
00:16:51.280
into the ground.
00:16:51.900
And after she left, they said, yeah, let's let's get rid of this.
00:16:55.160
And then she's been a minister and she was a foreign minister.
00:16:58.120
She was the deputy prime minister.
00:16:59.940
Nowhere was she connected to the finance portfolio.
00:17:03.400
As far as I can tell, or any of the things that you would want to see as assets to a finance
00:17:11.200
minister, such as, you know, business experience, management experience, finance.
00:17:15.780
I mean, say what you will about Bill Morneau and a lot of his policies and directives.
00:17:19.920
But but he was a rich guy who ran a business.
00:17:22.120
So, I mean, as far as finance ministers go, that's probably a pretty good, maybe not the
00:17:27.860
guy part, but someone who's rich and has run a business, I think, is generally speaking
00:17:31.660
going to have a leg up on someone who's not run a business.
00:17:34.640
And it's not to say that wealth is a prerequisite.
00:17:37.320
But if you're talking about managing the country's money, having some experience managing
00:17:41.960
money seems to be a pretty good priority to have there.
00:17:45.280
So when I look at Chrystia Freeland being appointed to this role and the fact that her acceptance
00:17:52.400
speech, if you will, was all about breaking the glass ceiling and stuff like that, it has
00:17:56.980
me thinking that this is another one of these displays of virtue signaling, like when the
00:18:01.520
Trudeau government talks about having the gender lens in the budget and talking about
00:18:05.700
having gender equality at the forefront of the NAFTA renegotiations, where it's like there's
00:18:10.780
something very important that's being taken off the table to be replaced by something
00:18:15.860
that is purely theatrical.
00:18:18.440
Because men and women are both affected by Canada's finances.
00:18:21.480
The idea of putting a gender lens in there because, oh, we have to make sure that we're
00:18:25.640
having a feminist budget.
00:18:27.600
This is the type of thing that we're getting.
00:18:29.880
And for Chrystia Freeland, who in many cases has been the chief virtue signaler on a lot of
00:18:35.280
things, certainly NAFTA negotiations, to put her at the helm of finance is not going to be
00:18:40.760
I think a decision that will reflect well in the long run, but she has proven one thing
00:18:47.900
which makes her valuable.
00:18:49.300
She is blindly loyal to Justin Trudeau.
00:18:52.740
And I shouldn't say blindly loyal.
00:18:54.960
She's made a choice.
00:18:55.780
She's made a decision.
00:18:56.920
She is fiercely loyal to Justin Trudeau.
00:18:59.060
That's a better way of putting it.
00:19:00.520
Because Freeland, despite all the rifts that have happened between Trudeau and Dion, Trudeau
00:19:05.820
and McCallum, Trudeau and Bryson, Trudeau and Morneau, all of these, Freeland has been
00:19:10.000
on Team Trudeau.
00:19:11.940
And there's a reason that she is his lieutenant.
00:19:14.820
There's a reason that she is his deputy and remains that role because she has proven and
00:19:20.080
she has made that determination that she's not going to be the one that is ever going
00:19:25.100
to go against him.
00:19:26.540
So she sets herself up as the heir apparent if and when Trudeau does resign.
00:19:30.740
Although Trudeau did say this week that he is planning on running again in the next election.
00:19:35.120
He actually laughed or more like cackled when, I don't know if we have that clip, but he
00:19:39.560
like actually cackled when he was asked about it.
00:19:42.600
We do have it.
00:19:43.260
Here we go.
00:19:43.940
Will you be on the ballot the next time there's an election?
00:19:46.780
Absolutely.
00:19:47.980
There are a lot of challenges Canada is facing right now.
00:19:51.120
And I'm actually excited about the opportunity and the responsibility.
00:19:56.100
So take from that what you will.
00:19:57.840
I don't know if it was like the cackling is the tell that he's lying or I don't know if
00:20:01.280
the cackle is just proof of the indignation because he can't believe that there would
00:20:05.820
be any circumstance in which he wouldn't run.
00:20:07.880
But but either way, we we market here on August 19th, 2020.
00:20:12.540
But all of this is going to be, I think, a big problem for Canadians.
00:20:18.140
And we're already at that point.
00:20:20.220
I think Pierre Polyev summed up a lot of the frustration and angst about this when he
00:20:24.620
spoke after Morneau stepped down as finance minister.
00:20:28.560
We have a government of elites and self-serving snobs who look down on ordinary working class
00:20:40.120
Canadians.
00:20:40.980
I'm not sure if that's true of the governor general, but it's certainly true of the people
00:20:45.380
around the prime minister.
00:20:47.440
They think they're better than everyday Canadians.
00:20:50.220
They think they can turn their nose up at the people.
00:20:53.200
And they believe that they have a God-given entitlement to rule over the country and use
00:21:01.760
the Treasury as their personal piggy bank.
00:21:04.760
That is the attitude of entitlement that we have come to expect from Trudeau and everyone
00:21:10.860
he has put in positions of power.
00:21:12.800
Hey, tell us how you really feel, Pierre.
00:21:14.480
Don't don't hold back like you've been doing.
00:21:16.680
I kid.
00:21:17.160
Pierre has never once held back in his life.
00:21:19.460
I don't think when it comes to political barbs and we as Canadians are all the better
00:21:23.880
for it, I think, or certainly all the more entertained by it.
00:21:27.140
So this is where we have to take stock of what it is that we want moving forward, because
00:21:33.760
the liberals are cleaning house.
00:21:35.700
They want to claim that we had nothing to do with Bill Morneau stepping down, that all
00:21:40.780
of the disagreements, that Trudeau wanting to rack up monumental deficits and Morneau not
00:21:45.720
wanting to that that all is a window dressing.
00:21:48.000
It's all about the OECD and all about Morneau just jumping to this better opportunity because
00:21:53.380
he, for some reason, didn't want to have a life in politics, but he wants to now go for
00:21:59.780
this international organization, which is, you know, just basically supranational politics.
00:22:05.060
So that is a bit odd.
00:22:07.520
So it's not even like he's returning to the private sector, which would justify the narrative
00:22:12.040
if he's put forward that, oh, no, no, no, I just wanted to, you know, do a couple of
00:22:15.220
years in politics and then, you know, get back to my real life.
00:22:18.600
So take from that what you will.
00:22:21.120
But we are going to look at this going towards the fall where there may or may not be an election.
00:22:28.840
I mean, what that election would look like with, you know, public health restrictions,
00:22:32.120
I have no idea.
00:22:33.360
But we have a possible election opportunity in the fall, which means Trudeau has the next
00:22:39.620
couple of months to try to make sure that the NDP does not leave his side.
00:22:47.580
And if you want Canada to be in good hands, let's just take a moment to realize that right
00:22:55.380
now the balance of power is being held by Jagmeet Singh because the bloc is saying, yeah,
00:23:01.280
we're done.
00:23:02.160
The conservatives, you know, will not vote to have confidence when push comes to shove,
00:23:06.980
especially since they'll have their new leader effective Sunday of this week, assuming all
00:23:11.180
goes to plan.
00:23:12.240
You've got a few independent MPs, but I don't see them as triggering the downfall of government.
00:23:17.380
Someone asked me about this the other day, actually.
00:23:19.580
They said, do I think Jody Wilson-Raybould, who's sitting as an independent, will vote to
00:23:25.240
defeat the government?
00:23:26.460
And I really don't see it for a couple of reasons.
00:23:30.000
Number one, she is to her heart, to her core, a liberal.
00:23:33.760
Jody Wilson-Raybould, maybe not a capital L liberal, but she is a progressive still.
00:23:39.200
And her departure from the liberal party, the capital L liberals, had more to do with
00:23:45.220
her discontent about the management of it and Justin Trudeau personally than the aims.
00:23:51.380
And she's been very clear about this.
00:23:52.820
She still supports the fundamental liberal vision for Canada.
00:23:56.940
So I don't think she's going to vote against that in favor of what would almost assuredly
00:24:02.900
be a conservative vision for Canada.
00:24:06.380
So that's part of the problem.
00:24:08.580
And the other part is that I don't think Jody Wilson-Raybould wants an election.
00:24:12.640
She won as an independent, which is a very difficult thing to do in Canadian politics and
00:24:17.380
a very rare thing to do in Canadian politics.
00:24:19.820
So for Jody Wilson-Raybould to have a seat right now was the stars aligning, everything
00:24:25.800
happening in the way that was right, everything that needed to happen.
00:24:29.860
And more importantly, she had a lot more momentum going into the 2019 election than she would
00:24:35.240
now.
00:24:35.760
If she were to run again, there's no guarantee she keeps her seat.
00:24:40.740
There just isn't.
00:24:41.660
I mean, there's no guarantee for any member of parliament to keep their seat, certainly not
00:24:46.360
an independent, and you take away what was national fundraising.
00:24:49.980
If you look at her fundraising, a lot of the money that she took in came not from her Vancouver
00:24:54.020
Granville riding, but from people across the country that were supportive of what she did.
00:24:58.340
She won't have that as easily now.
00:25:00.360
And also she won't have the media that's really invested in what she's doing.
00:25:04.580
So for JWR, as she's known more colloquially to people, it would be a big gamble for her to
00:25:11.520
support anything that would put Canadians back to the polls.
00:25:15.120
So for those two reasons, which I think are pretty significant ones, I think she would
00:25:19.760
vote alongside the government.
00:25:21.160
So all of a sudden, no, you don't have enough independent votes to topple the government,
00:25:25.920
to vote a lack of confidence.
00:25:27.740
So right now, Trudeau is going to be wheeling, dealing, negotiating, doing everything possible
00:25:33.560
to ensure that when that budget and throne speech come out in the fall, that they pass.
00:25:38.760
And all of a sudden, Trudeau will say, we have a renewed mandate.
00:25:41.600
We have a renewed focus.
00:25:43.360
We've done all of this.
00:25:44.300
And I mean, Trudeau has, there's a little bit of truth to what he said, which is that,
00:25:49.440
you know, the previous budget and throne speech are kind of meaningless now because the world's
00:25:53.440
changed a fair bit since then.
00:25:54.760
And I would agree with that.
00:25:56.420
But I would also say that the next one is similarly going to be meaningless just for different
00:26:01.260
reasons, because this is now the one when the liberals are going to be an electioneering
00:26:05.140
their next throne speech, their next budget.
00:26:07.780
These are going to be political platforms.
00:26:10.740
They are not going to be government documents or public policies.
00:26:14.480
They are going to be political platforms because they know that these visions are going
00:26:18.060
to be the ones that carry the liberals into the next election, whether that's in the fall,
00:26:21.880
whether it's in the spring or whether it's a year or two years from now, because this is
00:26:26.180
now the game.
00:26:27.180
This is now the game.
00:26:29.300
It's that Trudeau has to convince Canadians that he's the only one that knows what he's
00:26:33.480
doing, that can continue along.
00:26:36.000
He's the steady hand.
00:26:36.980
He's all of that.
00:26:37.940
And it's very difficult to sell that when Bill Morneau, who is one of the more or was
00:26:43.180
one of the more capable and competent members, albeit disagreeable in terms of his conduct,
00:26:49.620
but one of the more capable and competent, just in terms of qualifications, members of
00:26:54.040
the team.
00:26:54.900
And now without that, who do you have?
00:26:57.160
Where's the bench strength?
00:26:58.660
I mean, whether you like Chrystia Freeland or not, she is there to stay.
00:27:02.060
She's around for the long haul and she is someone who tends to pull very well.
00:27:06.660
You've got Justin Trudeau.
00:27:07.840
You've got Chrystia Freeland.
00:27:09.700
Those are really now the only remaining really high profile ministers that are really, I think,
00:27:18.060
the diehard loyalists.
00:27:19.260
I mean, you've got other people that are there, clearly.
00:27:21.660
I mean, David Lamedi is the attorney general.
00:27:24.160
Patty Hajdu is the health minister.
00:27:25.720
You've got Mona Fortier.
00:27:27.220
I mean, you've got people in cabinet, but none of these people do as much to, you know,
00:27:32.180
trumpet the Justin Trudeau team as Freeland and Trudeau.
00:27:39.040
And, you know, it's amazing how far we've fallen from that, you know, ridiculous billboard
00:27:43.560
in Toronto of, you know, Justin Trudeau's and Bill Morneau's bromance with the hearts.
00:27:48.880
I was funny.
00:27:49.780
An American friend of mine saw me tweet out a version of this the other day and she thought
00:27:54.940
it was a Photoshop.
00:27:55.840
She didn't realize that anyone would actually, any serious people like the finance minister
00:28:00.640
and prime minister of a G7 country would actually put forward some photo that looks like it's
00:28:05.900
from like some buddy comedy Hallmark movie.
00:28:08.260
She didn't believe it was real.
00:28:09.320
And I, as a Canadian, it actually pained me to have to share that it was real, but that's
00:28:15.480
where we are, folks.
00:28:16.680
In any case, we have to wrap things up for today.
00:28:20.660
We will keep tabs on what's happening.
00:28:22.700
And next week we'll have a new leader of the Conservative Party of Canada and we'll try
00:28:27.440
to get them on the show for a bit of a victory speech after those results come in.
00:28:32.060
Also, we are going to be doing a live show on Sunday night as the results come in.
00:28:38.160
I think we're starting at 5 p.m.
00:28:39.940
Eastern time, but if you check tnc.news for details, you'll have all of the information
00:28:44.740
you need there, but you can watch a little bit of a pre-show, watch as the results come
00:28:48.340
in with us and then a post-show analysis of what happened.
00:28:51.900
So that's all coming up this weekend.
00:28:53.660
We'll talk to you then.
00:28:54.620
Thank you.
00:28:55.220
God bless and good day, Canada.
00:28:56.580
Thanks for listening to The Andrew Lawton Show.
00:28:59.200
Support the program by donating to True North at www.tnc.news.
Link copied!