Juno News - December 06, 2025
Is Carney Losing His Grip?
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Summary
Brian Lyle of the Toronto Sun joins us to talk about the impact of the World Cup draw in Washington, D.C. and all the latest trade news coming out of Canada. Plus, a word from our sponsor, Alberta Against No-Fault Insurance, on the Alberta government's new auto insurance system.
Transcript
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Hi, Juno News. Alexander Brown here to end the week. Thanks for tuning in to Not Sorry. I'm a
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writer, a communicator, campaigner, director of the National Citizens Coalition, and it's a thrill
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to get to talk to you each and every week. And while you are here this Saturday, any day you
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see this, take advantage of our promo code. That's junonews.com slash not sorry for 20% off. We've
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got a great chat today with Brian Lilly because Mark Carney was in Washington Friday, but it's
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not for the reason you may think. He's there for the World Cup draw, for which Canada paid an
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exorbitant fee to host only a few games. But coming out of my discussion with Professor Ian Lee in our
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last episode, and I encourage you to look that up on the Juno site or on the Juno YouTube, and remember
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the word of that episode was propinquity. As we expanded on a theme of geography as destiny, Carney
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should absolutely be making the time to force the issue on trade. In reporting Friday from Reuters,
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U.S. President Donald Trump said he would meet with the leaders of Canada and Mexico later on Friday
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to discuss trade, but gave no other details. Trump, speaking to reporters ahead of the FIFA World Cup
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draw in Washington, said he was getting along very well with both leaders, and he was later seen speaking
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with Carney on the sidelines of the event in a video gathered from the FIFA event. Canada's on a seemingly
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delusional quest to diversify away from U.S. reliance. We're calling our proximity a vulnerability to the
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world's great economy, but virtually every economic analysis confirms Canada's prosperity hinges on
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its proximity to the world's powerhouse economy. And our layoffs are mounting, including 1,000 at
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Algoma Steel this past week. A dismissive, who cares, elbows-up attitude can no longer cut it,
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not amid 41,000 job losses heading into the holidays. This approach is clearly taking a toll
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on Canadians' livelihoods. We may not have started this tariff situation, but we took leave of our
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census for too long. We arguably still are, and we need to produce results for working Canadians
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and begin to reshape our economy into one that's capable of productivity and making hard decisions,
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like sending millions on expired and expiring temporary visas home so that our workers and our
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citizens can prosper. Our subsidized economic model is a failure. Not letting unproductive and disloyal
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employers go out of business or have to compete for our domestic workforce is a failure. To expand on
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this and all the latest news to end the week, we're lucky to get to talk to Brian Lilly of the Toronto Sun,
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also has a terrific sub-stack. And first, a word from our sponsor.
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I want to give a quick word from our sponsor, Albertans Against No-Fault Insurance. So did you know
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the Alberta government is overhauling its auto insurance system under a new model called Care
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First coming to effect in 2027? Most Albertans injured in car accidents will no longer be able
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to sue the at-fault driver. Instead, decisions about your care and compensation will be made by
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the insurance company, not your doctor, not the courts. Critics say this system puts insurance
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companies first and removes key rights from victims and their families. Brian Lilly of the Toronto Sun
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joins us, also publishes a terrific sub-stack. I'll link that in the show notes. Brian,
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thanks for ending the week with us. Oh, thanks for having me. It's a nice distraction. I've got
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the World Cup drawn, but they just keep having B-list celebrities come out and talk. So I know
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Canada is in its own group right now as we talk. We'll find out who the rest of the group is later
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on. Good. As long as it's not one of those groups of death like we had last time. Or like Iran and
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Israel together. I don't want that. I don't want that in Toronto.
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I think we have enough of those weekend protests. Let's avoid that. Brian, you have lots of terrific
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work of late coming out of this week. Oh, thank you.
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That I'd like to unpack for our audience. You've been a busy guy. You always are. But
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we're taping this on Friday and Carney is in Washington for what is a brief stop. He's officially
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there for the World Cup draw as you're watching right now, but not to visit the White House.
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Dominic LeBlanc said that he's not there to talk trade with Trump, but Reuters just shared
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a time of taping that the U.S. president said he would meet with the leaders of Canada and Mexico
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later on Friday to discuss trade, giving no other details. Now, he said he was getting along very well
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with both leaders. He was later seen speaking with Carney on the sidelines of the event.
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As we continue to struggle under tariff uncertainty and Canadian layoffs are in the five figures at this
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point, what would you like to see him do to restart stalled trade talks?
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I think he's got to go in and offer, I believe it was Ambassador Pete Hoekstra, who isn't exactly
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the most popular guy in Canada right now. But he talked about how they wanted at one point a grand
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bargain, kind of like Mark Carney and Daniel Smith, a grand bargain, put a lot of things in there,
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talk about it. And Donald Trump likes Mark Carney. Not sure why, he just really seems to dick this guy.
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So, okay, lean into that, Mark Carney. President likes you. Use that to say, hey, Donald, you know,
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it'd be great. Look, I know we had our problems. Let's get back together. Let's start talking again.
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And let's put together a deal that will encompass trade, critical minerals, defense. And you and I
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will hash out at the high level, and then we'll have the officials work out the details. I think
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that that is key. And I think, you know, Carney could put some things on the table that would be
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seen as gestures of goodwill, like just say, you know, if we're going to start trade talks in,
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restart them in the new year, I'll make sure that American booze is back on the shelf early in the
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new year. That's been a huge irritant for the Americans, because they didn't do that to us.
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So we have, you know, matched them on tariffs on things like steel and aluminum and so on. But
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we've escalated in several areas. And the thing is, the Americans don't see this as a trade war.
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They see this as a negotiation, that they want things to change, and they want a different
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negotiation. Our entire country, especially those in charge, they're in a different mindset. They see
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this as a trade war, and that affects their mentality. And so they view it as, I've got to beat
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you, I've got to defeat you. And we're going to escalate, and I'm going to beat the crap out of
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you until you give me what I want. Yeah, okay, but if you're, you know, the guys on the other side of
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the table, just think it's a negotiation, and you're being very aggressive. That doesn't necessarily
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help. And we've seen that most countries of the world have some kind of agreement with the US.
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And we're the only G7 country not covered by one. So that should tell us maybe our
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plans have been working. So, you know, gestures of peace, like, hey, let's restart talks. Let's
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start at a fresh slate. And we'll get American booze back on the shelves, I think is a good idea.
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Yeah, that's a provincial thing. And he would have to go to Doug Ford and Wob Canoe and Tim
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Houston and David Eby, not Danielle Smith or Scott Moe, because they've already put American booze back
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on the shelf. Yeah, looking forward to my next visit to Saskatoon or Calgary to pick up a bottle
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of bourbon. So, you know, he would have to go to them. But that is Mark Carney's job. And if he says,
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look, you guys are getting in the way of me getting a deal on foreign policy. And that's,
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that's my value. That's what I'm in charge of. You got to give this to me. And if the premiers are
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smart, they'd say yes. But if things don't change, we, you know, we can put it back on the
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table to take them, take them off the shelf. And that'd be fine. But you know, we should be
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committing to buying the F-35. It is the superior jet. We could put things on the table like
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Canada will agree to an increased amount of American auto parts in Canadian built cars.
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That's something the industry tells me that they would be able to handle. It wouldn't hurt them.
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And in fact, they support it. So, you know, there are certain things that could be done
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to kickstart trade talks. And, you know, I've already heard after I published my column on this
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saying this is what Mark Carney should say to Donald Trump at the World Cup. I've already heard, well,
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why do you want to surrender? It's not surrendering, it's trying to get a deal. And, you know, so you've
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got to give something if you want something in return. Don't have this mentality of, you know, we give
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up nothing and you give us everything. We can't have that. So, you know, there's a lot that we can do.
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And I think that Canada fundamentally does have a strong hand to play. We've got critical minerals. You
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know, Carney could say, look, we start having a trade deal. I will fast track resource extraction and
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processing permits for critical minerals in Alberta, BC, Quebec, Ontario, what have you. I will fast track that.
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And guess what? Who's going to benefit? American industry and the American military. You will have the best access to
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that in the world. Trump's trying to sign trade deals with Australia, with Ukraine as part of the
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peace deal for critical minerals. If we can give him those, that is a good thing. That is a strong
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hand for us to play. I don't think we've been playing our best hand. No. And that, that I'm so tired of
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that criticism where if you, you raise a valid point, you're some sort of turncoat. I had a professor
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Ian Lee on the show this week, great business professor from Carleton and the word. I've known
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Ian for years. Yeah. Oh, he's like, I wish I could go back in time and switch my major from, from
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policy side of business because he's just so passionate and so great at distilling these,
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these difficult concepts into something more simple, especially for a guy with a BA. But the word
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he used, the word of the, the, the episode was propinquity, which is, you know, geography is,
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geography is destiny to him where he he's expanding on how it may satisfy politicos, but, but surely
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sharing a border with the world's largest economy is not a vulnerability as the liberals have been
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calling it, but, but a blessing, is it not? It is. I would say that we have, I would still argue we
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are too reliant and have become too reliant on the American economy. I went back to the 1890s,
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believe it or not, there were trade stats back in the 1890s. Wow. I found Canadian trade stats. And at
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that point we sent, um, it was about 66%. Don't, don't quote me on the exact number, but about 66%
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of our exports went to either the United Kingdom or some other part of the British empire. Remember
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at that point, British empire, still the sun never set on it. It was at its peak. We were part of it.
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This was our big trading relationship. And we, we relied on the United Kingdom for defense still.
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Well, you know, fast forward 130 years later, and we are more reliant on the U S for trade and defense
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than we were when we were part of the British empire being reliant on Britain. That would tell
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me that we haven't done a good job at diversifying, but no matter how much we diversify, as you say,
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that geography is destiny part. The United States is still going to be our biggest trading partner.
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And that's a good thing. Let's lean into that. You know, there were business people at, um,
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Congress yesterday, not at Congress, sorry. They were at the, um, United States, uh, trade
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representative's office. There were hearings being held people like Goldie Hyder from the
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business council of Canada, people like Flavio Volpe from the vehicle manufacturers, uh, parts
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association. They were down there making the case for Canada. And there were also a lot of Americans
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making the case that an integrated economy is good, but we, we can't demand, you know, say that we
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are going to be independent and we will never be the 51st state. If we are so dependent on them that
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anything that they do that takes away our precious access to them will cripple our economy. We do need
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to define new markets, but that's going to take years. Uh, and it still won't replace. Like I can't
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see as getting to a world where less than 60, 65% of our exports go to the States. Even if we start
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doubling exports to China and the UK and to Europe, us is still going to be our biggest market.
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Yeah. It's, it's still not something we can quite replace in the aggregate and, uh, don't hold me to
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this audience, but I believe our, our number is something like 77%. So how do you, how do you find
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that elsewhere? Uh, moreover on the, maybe causing problems for ourselves front, you reported this
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week that if you were to listen to most of Canada's media, you'd be convinced that every
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first nation on British Columbia's coast is 100% against any possible oil pipeline time. And again,
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we keep hearing that coastal first nations are opposed to any pipeline and will stop any development.
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When I hear that term, when that, when the public does, I'm sure I think all first nation groups along
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the coast, but what does that term coastal first nations actually mean? Well, so in the generic
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term, it means a first nation along the coast of British Columbia. Um, and so that could be any
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number of bands along the British Columbia coast on the islands, but there's a specific group called
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coastal first nations. And that's the group you keep hearing about media reports and they're a not
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for profit. Yes. They have membership, um, that they describe as an alliance of first nations,
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but they don't represent every coastal first nation. Their actual name is the great bear society
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initiative. And they were started about 25 odd years ago with money from American foundations.
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Eventually they, they were getting Canadian, uh, government money. And that's, I believe is their
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primary source. Now, uh, both the BC government and the federal government, but, um, they got money
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from the Rockefeller brothers fund. They got money from the tides foundation, the Moore foundation,
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the Margaret, a Cargill foundation. What did all of these foundations have in common? They opposed the
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development of Canada's oil and gas industry. They opposed the development of natural resources
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industries, be it mining in British Columbia or forestry in British Columbia.
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Well, if you are a coastal first nation, how are you going to earn your money? How are you going to
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get ahead? Well, okay. You've got forestry lands. You can, you can make money off of that. You've got
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mining rights. You've got, uh, you know, a route for a pipeline. Well, this group that, you know,
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tries to portray itself and that most of the lazy media makes it sound like they speak for all first
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nations. They, they don't, I'm not going to say that they don't speak for some groups. There are
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going to be some bands that are absolutely on side with them, but not all. Uh, I just spoke with, uh,
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with Ellis Ross for an upcoming episode of the full comment podcast that will come out on Monday.
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Ellis is of course, former MLA from British Columbia. He's a current conservative MP for
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Skeena Buckley Valley represents Kitimat, which is where the Heisla First Nation that he's the former
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chief of was. And he said, I used to be on the board of that group. I pulled my band out of there
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because they were opposed to all this resource development that was going to give people in
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his community jobs and economic security. So, you know, saying coastal first nations are opposed
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to this makes it sound like, well, all the bands along the coast are opposed. No, it's an activist
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group. It's akin to saying, well, the NDP is opposed to it and the NDP speaks for Canadians. So
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all Canadians are opposed to this. No, it's an activist group. And so like, I'm not saying that
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they should be ignored, but let's treat them and label them as they are.
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Yeah. Didn't most communities support Northern gateway in 2014 as well. I believe you've written
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about this. Yeah. 31 different, uh, first nations groups along the route of Northern gateway supported
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it, which was the vast majority along the route supported, um, Northern gateway, but you know,
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who didn't coastal first nations, they opposed it. And their then executive director, a guy
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named art stare at threatened to make sure that if anyone put a shovel in the ground to build
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that pipeline, they would be there to stop it. Yeah. Well, you know, they, again, being portrayed
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as something they're not. Um, and rock, uh, Rockefeller brothers fund. If you've never seen it put
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together this, uh, plan in 2008 called the tar sands campaign that was to vilify Canada's oil and gas
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industry to make sure that the oil sands, which they labeled the tar sands never was developed
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properly. They wanted to shut down pipelines. They wanted to shut down extraction. They wanted to shut
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down the industry. That was their goal. And they partnered with Canadian NGOs and some first nations
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groups to try and accomplish that. That is what is still going on with this group, coastal first
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nations. Yeah. And they've been enormously successful. And I'm going to link that report,
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uh, in my show notes. I know you linked it on your sub stack as well, because all it takes is you're
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five pages in and you're going, Oh no, like this is, they're truly radical. Uh, that friend and colleague,
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Dr. Caroline Elliott out here, she, she wrote a piece in the national post this morning that really
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went into just the absolute kookiness of the ideology that has overtaken British Columbian
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politics of, of UNDRIP and DRIPA. And, and this, this just punishment is the point to ideology.
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And I know that many are concerned that these, these NGOs, these groups like that, that they might
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stand in the way of team Canada, you know, actually getting its pipeline to the, to the BC Pacific coast.
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On that front, where's your confidence level on the MOU? We're, we're hearing some mixed remarks.
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I, I certainly appreciate Danielle Smith's almost Herculean task here, but, but mixed remarks almost
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all across liberal caucus to leave more Muhammad is, is all but changing its very text and remarks is,
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is that a feature or a bug? Um, I'm hoping it's a bug. I don't know yet. Uh, you know, I'll, I'll cut
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the prime minister, some slack at this point, just because premier Smith, um, has put a lot into this
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and has a lot of faith in it. And, and so I'm going to say, all right, I'll trust her.
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She's closer to it than I am. Um, but you know, so to leave Nur Muhammad is out there,
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as you say, essentially rewriting it, he, he posted on X, well, you know, this will never happen without
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BC's, um, you know, uh, permission, essentially, I'm not sure he used that word, but that, that was
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the implication. And I said, well, that's not in the MOU. And in, in, in the same with the idea that
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there's a veto for first nations, there's not a veto in the MOU. There's not a veto in Canadian
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law. There's not a veto in Canadian jurisprudence, not for BC, not for any first nations. So
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let's stop pretending otherwise CBC and, um, and let's deal with what's actually there. You know,
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from what I know of Danielle Smith from 15 years of, of knowing her, following her, uh, covering her,
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being on her radio show back when she had a show, you know, this is a woman that people have to stop
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underestimating. And my guess is that, you know, she, she's told me that the private sector proponents
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or developers are already at the table dealing with her in coming up with how a project could go
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forward. So my guess is she's already talked to the big players and the small players and the medium
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players about, are you interested now people will say, yeah, but you know, that's capital
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expenditure. It takes a long time. Well, when did TC energy and Enbridge announced their big capex spends
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that are all going to the U S last August, she needs a proponent by July 1st. I'm confident that she
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has someone or a group of someone's waiting in the wing that will say, yeah, by, by July 1st,
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if we get all these ducks in a row, that we will be able to announce our capex because that's when
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they're going to do it is next summer. So they'll be able to say, yes, we'll get behind your project.
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So, uh, you know, I don't think that she went into this with the idea of, well, I'll get the prime
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minister to say yes. And then, and then I'll hope and pray that there's a, uh, you know, a private sector
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proponent. I'm confident that she's been speaking to people every step of the way and saying,
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what do you need for me to get you to guess? Yeah, they'd be awfully exposed if that wasn't
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going on. And, and surely with some of the independent sentiments in Alberta, that would be,
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that would have been a reckless approach. And so on that regard, I hope you're right. My,
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my early concern is this is proving more to be a Rorschach test than, than worth the paper it's printed
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on, but it, it encouraging nonetheless, a Herculean effort to, to even get the feds in the province
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together. Nonetheless, I wanted to, to close with a question for you because I noticed it in your
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latest sub stack where the interesting note here, and I am somewhat in agreement, you compare Pierre
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Paulie have strong performance in the house to that of Tom Mulcair's and how that ended up for the,
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for the NDP. Can you, can you elaborate on what lessons the conservatives should, should maybe take
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from your point here and the point you're making and, and what kind of strategic pivot you might be
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referring to? Well, I think they need to start showcasing the team. Pierre Paulie is an incredibly
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accomplished parliamentarian. He's been at it a long time. You should be, if you're no good at it
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after 20 years in the house, give it up, but he's good at it. But several days this week, um, I'm watching
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question period, and he's taking every question. And when the leader is 20 points ahead of the party
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in popularity and is a net benefit for the party, like say a year ago, this time, Pierre was polling
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ahead of the party at that point. Now he's not, now he's a net drag on the party. And I'm not saying
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they got to hide them, but they do need to showcase that there is a team, that there is a government in
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waiting, that he has bench strength. So, you know, I'm sure many of your viewers have seen the,
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the clips of Michelle Rempel Garner at immigration committee this week. She's just slaying it,
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crushing it. Yeah. Yeah. Use her, use Melissa Lansman, deputy leader, use, um, Shuv Majumdar,
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um, use the people that are there who will be your future cabinet and showcase them and say,
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look, you know, these are the people with me. Jean Chrétien used that to great effect. Other
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leaders have used that to great effect. Um, you know, it, in, in Polyev is essentially
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up against Mark Carney in a resume contest at this point. If it's just him against them,
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it's a resume contest. And I'll tell you how that ends. He loses. If it's just
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what are Mark Carney's qualifications, what appear poly has qualifications, because that's how a lot
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of voters are going to look at it. And they're going to say, well, you know, don't like everything
00:24:39.660
Carney's doing, but you know, he's got the experience. Okay. You put your team up against
00:24:45.100
Carney and his team, Michelle Rempel Garner versus Lena Diab, the immigration minister.
00:24:50.220
And that's an unfair fight when I, when I watch it. Yeah. Anybody up against, uh,
00:24:54.780
Minister Gary and Desangri at the, uh, public safety, you know, I, I think doesn't know what
00:25:01.340
a PAL or an RPAL are. Yeah. And, and if the rumors I'm hearing about a cabinet shuffle just after the
00:25:08.860
house rises next week are true, uh, Diab's gone from cabinet. Um, and Desangri is either gone or at
00:25:20.300
the least shuffled out of public safety. So Carney's got a, a weak team and you look around and you say,
00:25:27.820
who does he put in that hasn't been run through the rainer already? Like you had to bring in Mark
00:25:33.100
Miller to replace Stephen Guibault. Um, he's already in big, big trouble. Yeah. So, you know, um,
00:25:40.620
Pierre has a better team with them. Showcase the team. Carney's got a weak team with him.
00:25:45.260
Yeah. You're not going to win a resume contest with Mark Carney, but you might win in saying,
00:25:50.860
I've got the better team overall in this guy's team. You don't want them near. And do you want
00:25:55.500
Lena Diab telling you the time of day after that performance? I mean, they must get so nervous when
00:26:01.260
she speaks in the house of commons and even more nervous when she goes to committee where she
00:26:05.660
doesn't have, you know, like the 35 second rule and just stop talking. No, uh, Garner yesterday was
00:26:11.580
grilling her on, on these, these migrant crimes that these judges are, are really sadly just all but
00:26:18.220
dismissing out of respect for an immigration status that, you know, they've clearly violated. And, and
00:26:23.100
Diab is defaulting to her favorite ethnic foods and, and just scammer and tabbouleh. Hey, big fan of
00:26:29.820
Fattouche and tabbouleh. Yeah. I love Fattouche. Tabbouleh, yeah, not as much, but I love Fattouche.
00:26:35.820
Yeah. What does that have to do with what they're talking about? Brad Radicow was asking her about
00:26:41.740
the, the young woman who was denied the ability to put Israel as the place of her birth in her
00:26:47.580
passport application. And he, he asked her, do you condemn this? What do you mean condemn? I don't
00:26:53.660
know what that means. Yeah. Webster's dictionary defines condemnation. How are you this old? You've
00:27:00.140
been a provincial cabinet minister. Now you're a federal cabinet minister. You don't know what
00:27:05.340
condemn means. Yeah. I've, I've been told by folks that it's like the ineptitude with her is the point
00:27:12.060
that it's like, just, she can. So showcase your team, Pierre, because your team is going to beat
00:27:17.980
his team every day. I look, I think Mark Carney is a smart guy. I think he's used to running things
00:27:27.260
a certain way. And I can't imagine the level of frustration that he must have dealing with this
00:27:34.140
cabinet. Go back to one of my favorite lines, paraphrase of Sir John A. McDonald.
00:27:38.780
If you want me to have a better cabinet, send me better wood. He's got rotten wood in his cabinet
00:27:44.380
right now. And there's no way for people to send them better wood. Pierre's got better wood. Showcase
00:27:49.660
it. Fascinating insights. I think you're completely right there. Brian Lilly, thanks for joining us.