Juno News - Liberal candidate calls for deportations + the Canadian $ could drop again

00:00:00.000 We're now weeks into the Liberal Party of Canada leadership race, and no one is more surprised than

00:00:06.560 me to see that one of the candidates contesting to be the next party leader and prime minister

00:00:12.560 is talking about the need to deport illegals. Who knew that I could agree so much with a liberal?

00:00:19.180 I'm also wondering whether the next liberal leader will have a real shot at beating the

00:00:24.260 Conservatives as they begin to pull a little lower and the Liberals a little higher. The

00:00:29.500 political strategist is joining us today. And later on the show, we'll be joined by an economist

00:00:33.960 who will talk about what the impact of tariffs could be on Canada. I'm Rachel Parker. Welcome

00:00:39.640 back to the Rachel Parker show.

00:00:57.680 Hey everyone, I'm Rachel Parker. Welcome back to the Rachel Parker show. We've got two great

00:01:02.560 interviews lined up for you guys today. We are going to start by going to Hamish Marshall,

00:01:07.520 a political strategist and a public opinion researcher at One Persuasion. We'll head to

00:01:13.680 him now. So Hamish, I want to start by asking you right off the hop, how is the Canadian public

00:01:19.320 feeling about getting this Liberal leadership race versus getting a Canadian federal election?

00:01:25.980 You know, there doesn't seem to be a lot of enthusiasm beyond Liberal partisans for this

00:01:30.840 leadership race. I think there's a little bit of curiosity that we're going to get a new Prime

00:01:34.660 Minister on March 9th ish. You know, we don't know when they'll actually be sworn in, but you know,

00:01:39.880 they're going to do Prime Minister some curiosity, but I wouldn't say it's enthusiasm. So I think a lot

00:01:44.440 of people, you know, who really just desperately want change want are would be much happier to have

00:01:52.400 an election. But you know, to be fair, there are some folks, not a huge chunk, but maybe 10% of the

00:01:56.860 population are saying, well, this is interesting. Let's keep an eye on this. And maybe we'll get some

00:02:00.660 changes with a new leader. But it's not overwhelming. You're saying there's a lack

00:02:05.560 of enthusiasm. From my perspective, it seems that Mark Carney is shaping up to be the frontrunner in

00:02:12.360 this race. Is there enthusiasm surrounding him? Or do you think that that's a bit inflated by the

00:02:19.900 Liberal establishment and Canadians are just like, eh, part for the course? I think there's a lot of

00:02:24.800 enthusiasm for Mark Carney amongst the, you know, the Laurentian elite and the media establishment,

00:02:30.800 especially in Ottawa, who all think he's this giant breath of fresh air. I think most Canadians still

00:02:35.960 don't really have any clue who he is. And, you know, from what they're seeing, he's not dramatically

00:02:41.500 different from what, you know, we've had for the last decade. So if Canadians are not, you know,

00:02:47.960 really tuned in, paying attention to this, how does that shape up when, let's say, we get to the

00:02:52.540 federal election, let's say, hypothetically, you know, Mark Carney wins, and he has a lower profile

00:02:58.220 among Canadians than, say, someone like Christy Freeland. Because the Liberals are so unpopular,

00:03:03.060 and Mark Carney isn't as recognized as being alongside Justin Trudeau during the last nine

00:03:08.120 years, does that give the Liberals a better shot of forming government than it would under someone

00:03:12.640 like Christy Freeland, who has been, you know, pictured and photographed with the Prime Minister for

00:03:17.180 the last almost decade? Yeah, yes and no. I mean, look, the fact of the matter is that even senior

00:03:23.860 cabinet ministers, even ones who've been in the job for a long time, actually have shockingly low

00:03:28.660 name recognition. The awareness of Christy Freeland is very high for people like you and I, it's

00:03:33.240 probably quite high for people who watch this show. But your average Canadian has no real impression

00:03:38.400 of her. That said, when someone becomes Prime Minister, their name recognition and the impressions

00:03:43.740 of them shoots to like 99% like within a week or two. So Pete, Carney's, if Carney wins, and I think

00:03:50.600 that's overwhelmingly likely, Carney's first week, 10 days, you know, which could be all the time he

00:03:56.780 gets before the election is called, is going to be vital to the impressions of him. And he, if he

00:04:01.280 doesn't hit it out of the park every single day, it's going to be a, it's going to be a real problem

00:04:05.880 for him. I want to talk to you a little bit about the liberal leadership race in terms of the

00:04:11.980 candidate. So obviously we've got Mark Carney, we've got Christy Freeland, we've got Karina Gold,

00:04:16.000 we've got Ruby Dalla. And we did until recently have liberal MP Chandra Arya, who was disqualified

00:04:21.920 from the leadership race for essentially, you know, he said, I don't speak French. And I don't think

00:04:26.500 that Quebecers care that I don't speak French was a very bizarre thing to say in Canadian federal

00:04:32.520 politics, where politicians often say one, an answer in French, and then they repeated again in

00:04:38.300 English or vice versa. So it was a bizarre comment to make. And I kind of said, you know, I wouldn't be

00:04:42.320 surprised if they disqualify him for this. But there was a bit of a gap between when he said that

00:04:47.220 and when he was disqualified. And what happened in that period is that, you know, conservatives and

00:04:51.940 independents said, we are going to register for the liberal readership race, because anyone can

00:04:56.640 register, you don't even have to be Canadian citizen. And it's just simple as going online and

00:05:01.000 entering out a form. And everyone was kind of throwing their weight behind this liberal MP. And then next thing we

00:05:07.540 know, he was disqualified. To me, it appeared it kind of gave a show of weakness for the liberal

00:05:12.820 party readership race. Do you think that there was any, you know, concerns from the party brass

00:05:17.380 running this leadership race that that many people were signing up to co-op the race and to support

00:05:22.620 Chandra Arya? Or do you think it was really such a small amount of people who would have been

00:05:27.080 registering for him? I look, I think he was very popular on the internet. He was very much the

00:05:31.660 internet's choice. There's no question. Typically, when that happens, it, you know, it might be a few

00:05:36.620 thousand signups. I've no doubt four or five thousand, six thousand people might have signed

00:05:40.160 up for him. I'd be very surprised if it was 10 times that my so my views, I think the liberal

00:05:46.340 party is in real trouble everywhere in the country. The polling is very clear on this. They're in trouble

00:05:50.480 in Quebec, but they're in a little less trouble in Quebec than they are in the rest of the country.

00:05:54.260 They've got a better chance of holding on. No, maybe not definitely not all of their seats in

00:05:58.340 Quebec, but but more of them proportionally. So I think fundamentally, they were like, we just can't risk a

00:06:05.180 guy running around getting media, the media every day talking about how he refuses to speak French for, you

00:06:11.180 know, six weeks or whatever it is until the leadership that could further damage our chances in Quebec, give

00:06:16.520 the block something to beat us over, over the head with, because that's just like catnip to the block, right?

00:06:23.060 So I think I think I don't think there was any real danger of him doing extremely well. But maybe there was a danger of

00:06:30.060 him coming in third or fourth, and that would have again hurt their narrative. And so I think they just decided that if he was

00:06:36.060 going to reject, you know, bilingualism, which has been a core tenet of the Liberal Party for the last, you know, 50 something years,

00:06:42.060 that wasn't something they were on board, they could get around.

00:06:47.060 You said that, you know, you wouldn't be surprised if a few thousand people signed up to vote for him. How many

00:06:51.060 people do you expect will vote in this Liberal Leadership Contest?

00:06:55.060 Look, I think this Liberal Leadership Contest, the way it's being set up, there's another set of rules yet to come

00:07:00.060 out, is extremely weak from a security perspective. I think there's going to be unbelievable, you know, every leadership

00:07:06.060 race has allegations of funny business. But the fact of the matter is, there's a leadership race where

00:07:12.060 anybody could just sign up online, and we saw lots of people signing up their dogs and everything else,

00:07:16.060 despite the fact the Liberal rules say they can fine people $10,000 if they sign up fraudulently.

00:07:24.060 But how you would enforce that is, there's no mechanism for enforcement. I think a lot, whenever they publish

00:07:31.060 the list, sort of the number of people that have been registered, presumably in the next, the next

00:07:35.060 short period of time, it's going to be a big number, because a lot of people are going to be

00:07:41.060 signed up without knowing that they've been signed up. Someone is going to sign up to all their

00:07:45.060 friends and their family and their second cousins and all their employees at their store or whatever,

00:07:50.060 and their cousins, like it's going to be a lot of people. How many of them will actually vote?

00:07:54.060 How many of them will, you know, get the process to get a valid, to get a ballot and be validated?

00:08:00.060 We don't know what that process is yet. But I've got a lot of questions about the validity of the vote.

00:08:04.060 So how many, how many ballots will be cast and how many people will be vote? It's probably two different numbers.

00:08:10.060 You're saying, you know, you have a lot of concerns about the validity of the vote.

00:08:13.060 We know that there was the foreign interference report released yesterday, and the commissioner essentially said,

00:08:18.060 you know, there is no sign that there's traitors in parliament as we've sort of been believing for so long.

00:08:24.060 But she did say we do need to do a better job of safeguarding your institutions. And she also pointed to the leadership races as one of those things that could use more rules.

00:08:33.060 When you see, you know, this second set of rules come out for the Liberal Party leadership race, do you expect that they are going to seek to add some safeguards?

00:08:40.060 I think there's going to, they're going to claim there's a few, but, you know, I've been involved in a lot of leadership races over the, over the years,

00:08:46.060 and the ability for a party, you know, even the professional side of one that's dependent on a lot of volunteers to actively enforce these things,

00:08:54.060 is just quite limited for it, to be honest. And so I suspect there's going to be a lot of problems.

00:09:00.060 Well, you say it's quite limited, but I also have to wonder, like, it seems like it's probably too little too late.

00:09:05.060 Like people have already registered. Are they going to comb through those files now and remove tons of names from the list?

00:09:10.060 I just don't know if I can see that happening.

00:09:12.060 Well, there's another stage. They've announced there's going to be another stage that these registered Liberals then have to register to vote for the leadership.

00:09:19.060 But they have not announced what that registration process will look like.

00:09:22.060 So I think the first list or the first number that's going to come out is going to be a ridiculously high number with everybody's cats and dogs and, you know, second cousins that they've signed up without them knowing on there.

00:09:32.060 But they, they are going to sort of try to impose the security at the registration process that in order to get a ballot, you have to, you know, we saw it through, you know, we've seen it at various points, upload a copy of your ID, do something, something.

00:09:47.060 But I think with the timelines they have and the capacity they have, that process is going to be weaker than it ought to be.

00:09:55.060 I want to talk to you a little bit about Ruby Dalla, one of the candidates, as I said, that is in the leadership contest. 0.96

00:10:02.060 I don't think most people are aware of who she is.

00:10:04.060 I certainly wasn't when I saw that she was running. 1.00

00:10:06.060 And I saw a piece the other day, I want to say it was from the Toronto Sun, where she was called like the Canadian Donald Trump, which is probably not a very accurate comparison.

00:10:14.060 We don't have politicians like Donald Trump in Canada.

00:10:16.060 He's kind of one of a kind.

00:10:17.060 Yeah.

00:10:18.060 But we're seeing her saying things like, you know, I'm going to deport all the illegals, which isn't rhetoric that we've heard in Canadian federal politics a long time.

00:10:27.060 And, you know, now just recently, Pierre Polly have actually spoke up and said that he would deport illegals and that he would even look at sending people who are committing crimes and here on work visas and permits that he would consider sending them back.

00:10:38.060 And I was saying to Candace Malcolm yesterday, I was like, I actually am really glad to see this rhetoric in federal politics because I think it's normalizing the idea of deportations.

00:10:49.060 And certainly I do believe that we should be deporting illegal aliens or those who are not Canadian citizens but committing crimes in this country. 0.99

00:10:56.060 It's just so unexpected to see this rhetoric being used in a liberal leadership race.

00:11:02.060 You know, she's been accepted as a candidate now. 0.73

00:11:04.060 Do you think that she has her candidacy has the ability to pull some people who are in the middle or who are even more conservative, say, like, I'm not actually joining the Liberal Party as an effort to co-opt or as a joke, but because this is someone that I can actually throw my weight behind?

00:11:20.060 Yes and no.

00:11:21.060 I mean, look, she's also now seems to become the area out of the race seems to become the Internet's choice now.

00:11:29.060 I also think that some of her comments are a little too late.

00:11:32.060 Right. I mean, the fact of the matter is that the deadline for people to sign up was on the 27th.

00:11:37.060 You know, if she's trying to appeal to people who should want that past the ability for people to register in the first stage of registration.

00:11:46.060 So, you know, I'm not quite sure if there's an audience with people who signed up.

00:11:51.060 If she was doing this with another month to sign up, maybe she could attract people with that message.

00:11:55.060 But I agree with you. I mean, I think the idea that we should deport foreign criminals, which to me seems like a blindingly obvious idea, but apparently has been very controversial. 1.00

00:12:02.060 The fact that that is now being normalized, the fact that people are taking a tougher stance on this stuff, I think is very, very good.

00:12:09.060 And the fact, to be honest, that the liberals haven't kicked her yet, haven't yet kicked her out of the leadership race for saying that sort of thing that would be, you know, heresy a couple of years ago is also encouraging that, you know, the center ground in this country is moving back towards common sense.

00:12:26.060 Just my last question for you here, because I know it's the one that my audience will be most vested in, but we talked a bit about Mark Carney.

00:12:34.060 You said he seems to be the clear front runner. He wins this leadership contest, becomes the next prime minister of Canada.

00:12:40.060 How much does this, you know, race between the liberals and the conservatives balance out?

00:12:44.060 Is it actually going to be a real election where both parties are going to have to give it everything that we've got?

00:12:49.060 Or are we going to continue to see the conservatives lead substantially in the polls?

00:12:53.060 So I think there's going to be a, you know, should Carney become prime minister, there'll be a lot of curiosity about him as Canadians wake up one morning and go, hold on, who's this guy who's now our prime minister?

00:13:03.060 And I think, you know, he's a very presentable fellow. He will present well initially.

00:13:08.060 And it will be up to the conservatives to make the case, which I think they've already started making, that, you know, he will be no different from Trudeau in anything that matters.

00:13:16.060 You know, he's amusing about changing the carbon tax, but not in a meaningful way. He's given no specifics. He's, he's missing the opportunity to just differentiate him from Trudeau.

00:13:33.060 And it's partly because he's got so much support, not just from MPs and organizers, but from Trudeau's own core people, many of Trudeau's closest advisors and the Trudeau people inside the Liberal Party are for Carney.

00:13:46.060 So I think he's going to be a very unconvincing agent of change, but I think there's going to be at least in the first, you know, few days and maybe the first few weeks and months, there's going to be a great deal of interest in which might reflect in some slightly closer polls.

00:14:00.060 You know, the Liberal Party seems to be trending up a couple of points in this leadership race. That's very normal once you get rid of an unpopular leader.

00:14:07.060 So the fact that they're up a couple of points is not much of a surprise, but I think things will revert to more or less where we've been by the end of the election campaign.

00:14:18.060 Hamish, thank you so much.

00:14:20.060 My pleasure.

00:14:21.060 All right, everyone. And again, that was Hamish Marshall, a political strategist and a public opinion researcher at One Persuasion.

00:14:27.060 Next, we'll head to an interview with Jack Mintz, an economist at the University of Calgary.

00:14:34.060 Full disclosure, I normally try to blend everything seamlessly together for you guys, but I did record this interview yesterday and it'll be fairly obvious because I immediately went and got my hair cut.

00:14:46.060 So sorry for the whiplash on that front, but I'm sure you guys will enjoy this interview. We'll head to it now.

00:14:51.060 Thanks for being here, Jack.

00:14:52.060 So I want to start by asking you right off the hop, if you could just give us a snapshot, what is the impact of these 25% tariffs going to be on Canada?

00:15:01.060 Well, first of all, we don't know if it's going to be 25% or some other number and how it's going to be applied.

00:15:07.060 But generally, it's going to be a mixed situation in the sense that either the impact will be not too large or the impact could be more significant depending, especially if the tariffs are in for a long time.

00:15:21.060 We don't know yet whether they could be just temporary until negotiations take place and then they'll be ultimately removed or largely removed.

00:15:31.060 We have to remember that there are many things that we sell to the United States that the United States must have.

00:15:40.060 For example, that would include things like energy.

00:15:45.060 It would also include potash, lumber and things like that, where we have a significant share of the U.S. market.

00:15:53.060 And so as a result, in those cases, when the Americans put on a tariff, that will add to the cost of the goods that they buy from Canada.

00:16:03.060 However, there will be some potential pushback because the U.S. is a very big customer for us.

00:16:12.060 And so there's an economic story basically to say that if your demand is what's called the price insensitive in the sense that if you raise prices, it doesn't change demand very much.

00:16:26.060 Then most of the tariff will get shifted towards the towards the United States.

00:16:33.060 But if the U.S. has some substitutes or demand, let's say drops, then that could cause Canadian producers to get lower prices on what they're selling to the United States.

00:16:45.060 And so they'll have to absorb some of the tariff.

00:16:48.060 And that's because the United States is a very big consumer in the world.

00:16:52.060 And so we don't know exactly what the implications are.

00:16:56.060 And it also will depend on what happens to the Canadian dollar if it devalues.

00:17:01.060 That actually softens the impact for Canadian producers in the sense that they will be able to get more Canadian dollars for every good that they sell to the United States.

00:17:14.060 And so even though the tariff may potentially reduce some of the prices they get, the devaluation of the Canadian dollar will offset that to some degree.

00:17:24.060 And that exactly happened to China, by the way, when the Trump administration back in 2017 and 2018 put tariffs, quite significant tariffs on Chinese goods.

00:17:36.060 Two thirds of that was offset by a reduction in the Chinese currency.

00:17:42.060 So it sounds like you're saying, you know, there's a lot of variable factors at play right now.

00:17:48.060 And there's still a lot that remains to be seen.

00:17:50.060 So, you know, it's is it not quite as simple as saying if these 25 percent tariffs go into effect on February 1st, then, you know, X, Y and Z goods in Canada are going to are going to the cost of those goods are going to increase.

00:18:02.060 Do we know if the cost of goods in Canada, what goods are going to increase as of, you know, early February if these tariffs come into effect?

00:18:09.060 Well, again, in the short run, they'll probably be most of them, probably the tariff will be added to the price because there's contracts and things like that, which, you know, may not change.

00:18:20.060 But the one thing that will happen is that the Canadian dollar will likely react very way right away because the Canadian dollar, of course, is flexible.

00:18:29.060 And I would expect that there'll be some devaluation in the Canadian dollar immediately, which means that, you know, our exporters won't be as harmed in the sense that people have been making out to be.

00:18:42.060 On the other hand, import prices will go up and, of course, we'll have some higher inflation here in Canada as a result.

00:18:49.060 You've mentioned higher inflation.

00:18:51.060 The Liberal government is now looking at essentially pandemic-like relief packages for industries that will be accepted, that will be impacted by those tariffs.

00:19:01.060 You know, for me who's looking at this, I feel like the Canadians are still paying the cost of the pandemic, that relief we saw from a number of years ago.

00:19:08.060 It seems like our currency has been significantly devalued.

00:19:11.060 You're saying it could be further devalued by the tariffs.

00:19:13.060 And now we're looking at more pandemic-like relief, more money printing.

00:19:18.060 You know, is this something that Canada can afford?

00:19:20.060 Well, first of all, I think we should quit panicking over tariffs.

00:19:24.060 The tariffs system, even at 25%, the tariffs will not be like the pandemic.

00:19:29.060 That had a huge impact on the economy as many people had to stop work right away.

00:19:34.060 And so that's a totally different situation.

00:19:36.060 In fact, I think politicians should take a little bit of a deep breath before they start reacting.

00:19:42.060 If the tariffs are relatively temporary and we are able to work out, let's say, some negotiation with the United States, such as redoing NAFTA 2.2 or our treaty with the United States and Mexico, you know, it could suspend maybe the tariffs for a while.

00:20:00.060 It all depends.

00:20:02.060 We don't even know if the Trump administration will put a broad-based tariff on all goods or maybe they'll exempt certain ones, which could mean that the effective rate will be a lot less.

00:20:15.060 For example, when the Chinese ones came in place, there was a number of exemptions given.

00:20:21.060 So the effective tariff rate was 17.5% when Trump put in those tariffs back years ago, even though the actual rate was much higher.

00:20:33.060 The official rate was much higher.

00:20:35.060 And that's because not everything was subject to the tariff.

00:20:38.060 So we'll have to see, you know, what the United States does.

00:20:41.060 There's a big debate in administration right now in the U.S.

00:20:45.060 There are some people who want to take a, let's say, a role in which the tariff rates would vary by good.

00:20:54.060 Others are pushing for a uniform tariff rate that would apply on all goods coming from a country.

00:21:01.060 And then again, there's a question of the strategy to be taken.

00:21:05.060 There's some people saying it could be a low rate that the United States will start off with and then say that we'll raise the rate if there's, you know, if the situation, if let's say Canada retaliates and does things like that, then maybe they'll start at 10%, but then raise it to 25% if we start not showing we're not willing to negotiate or maybe even retaliate as well.

00:21:30.060 We don't know what the Trump administration is going to do.

00:21:34.060 And there's a huge debate right now in the administration about exactly how to apply tariffs.

00:21:40.060 You've said that there is a need really not to panic here.

00:21:44.060 And on the one side of the negotiation front, you know, we have the Trudeau Liberals who are threatening those retaliatory tariffs.

00:21:51.060 And on the other side of the coin, we have Daniel Smith, who said, let's work with the Americans and let's avoid the tariffs, you know, altogether if possible.

00:21:58.060 In terms of diplomacy, which approach do you think is better?

00:22:02.060 Well, I think Daniel Smith right now is right.

00:22:05.060 I think we need to use the diplomacy.

00:22:08.060 If we do put on tariffs, it's going to be fruitless in many cases, because first of all, it's not entirely clear that we have that much monopoly power on the U.S. in terms of our demand for U.S. goods.

00:22:21.060 Everyone talks about orange juice, as I wrote in my latest article.

00:22:25.060 Even U.S. production of orange juice is actually a very small part of international production.

00:22:30.060 You know, it may be that at first Canadians are going to pay more for orange juice if we put a tariff on it.

00:22:37.060 But then we might substitute away from U.S. orange juice by buying Brazilian orange juice, which is much more available in supply.

00:22:47.060 So, you know, it all depends on how these things work out.

00:22:51.060 And again, you know, I think we have to remember my biggest concern is not over a short run situation where tariffs are applied.

00:23:01.060 Tariffs have been around for a long time in history.

00:23:04.060 It's not been the end of the world.

00:23:06.060 It certainly is a cost and will have an impact on our economy, but not one in which I can see a huge recession developing as a result.

00:23:15.060 My bigger concern is a long term is a long term where tariffs can stay in for a very long period.

00:23:22.060 And as the people around Trump, they've already indicated that they look at tariffs as a much better source of revenue, partly to drive more investment into the United States, especially into manufacturing, which they feel is critical for national security, not just for jobs, but also for revenue.

00:23:45.060 And they would rather have a tariff than to raise income taxes, which they are planning to do in the sense that the 2017 Tax Reform Act in the United States reduced personal income taxes and also had a number of corporate tax provisions that are being phased out now.

00:24:04.060 And they don't want to allow those personal tax rates to go up.

00:24:08.060 And so it'll cost money to the deficit.

00:24:12.060 And so they're going to need revenue to deal with that.

00:24:14.060 And if that's the case, then I can see tariffs being in for quite a while, which which means which I think will have a much bigger impact on the Canadian economy.

00:24:23.060 And particularly what I'm worried about most is capital flying more to the United States, as we've seen in the past several years, where where we have we have lost a lot of capital.

00:24:35.060 And we're not attracting as much as we need to get for for ourselves as a result of many of the policies that we have.

00:24:44.060 Jack, thank you so much.

00:24:46.060 My pleasure.

00:24:47.060 All right, everyone.

00:24:48.060 That's all we have time for today.

00:24:50.060 Before you guys sign off, I want to know what you think about this week's interviews.

00:24:55.060 Please let me know in the comment section below what you liked, what you would like to see more of so I can keep that in mind as I do planning for future weeks.

00:25:04.060 I hope that you guys have a great rest of your week.

00:25:08.060 God bless.

Juno News - January 29, 2025

Liberal candidate calls for deportations + the Canadian $ could drop again

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