Juno News - LIVE： LET'S REPLACE the CBC! Juno News' OFFICIAL Election Night Broadcast!

00:00:00.000 I think we're going now Chris do you want to welcome us in sure if we're live on the air

00:00:16.860 thank you so much for joining us folks my name is Chris Sims I'm the Alberta Director for the

00:00:21.660 Canadian Taxpayers Federation I'm here with three of my very dear friends William Cosman and Isaac

00:00:27.780 Hi. So they're joining us from the metropolises of Calgary, Victoria. Cosman moved to Victoria.

00:00:35.100 He didn't tell me that. And Isaac is up in Edmonton. Guys, we've got a great show for you.

00:00:40.540 This is the True North. It's the pregame show. So before, say, a big championship game,

00:00:46.580 you know where they do that kind of warm-up show where they go into the locker room and they

00:00:49.800 ask about giving 110%. This is that show right now because we are the warm-up show for the huge,

00:00:56.820 ginormous Juneau News special election show. So you don't want to miss that. That is starting at

00:01:03.560 the top of the clock. So for now, we're going to talk about all of the fun stuff that happened

00:01:08.700 during the election, the not so fun stuff that happened during the election, and our brilliant

00:01:13.560 predictions. I'm going to go around the horn here. William, I'm going to start with you because I

00:01:18.240 think you're geographically closest to me. I'm in Lethbridge right now. William, anything top of

00:01:24.000 mind going into today's vote or do you have a big prediction for the for the vote tonight yeah i mean

00:01:31.040 you know you just think 12 short weeks ago the outcome of this election was a done deal it was

00:01:38.240 going to be a thumping conservative majority government uh the liberals were going to be

00:01:43.580 fighting for third place with the new democrats it was going to be uh you know the ushering in

00:01:49.120 of a bold new era. And now, of course, we see incredibly tight polls. We see a photo finish

00:01:54.920 coming. There's lots of reports that the race is tightening in Ontario and that some people are

00:02:00.700 shy about sharing their opinions with pollsters because media unfairly and unflatteringly portray

00:02:06.420 conservatives. So I'm going to be big and bold. I'm going to say the conservatives are going to

00:02:10.740 win the election today, that when people actually get in that voting booth, they're going to think,

00:02:15.040 Do I really want another four years of what I've been having for the past decade?

00:02:21.580 And they're going to say, no, I do not.

00:02:23.820 And they are going to vote conservative.

00:02:25.840 Okay, I'm going to go clockwise around our Hollywood squares here.

00:02:28.900 Isaac, what's your prediction or your main thought going into today's vote?

00:02:33.440 Yeah, my line of thoughts, much similar to Williams.

00:02:37.140 Obviously, the main question I've been wondering is whether this is going to be similar to what we saw in the United States with Kamala Harris, where she was dominating the polls.

00:02:44.560 But then, of course, she was decimated in the election. So I think some people are hopeful for that. A lot of people questioning the polls, but unclear why that may be happening. I also want to predict a conservative win, but it's very hard to say. Obviously, it could go either way.

00:03:03.080 Cosman?

00:03:04.800 From the get-go, I always thought it was going to be very, very close.

00:03:09.500 I think it is leaning into a liberal minority government, and I'd want to be the one to say that, but that's just my impression.

00:03:18.600 I just want to brace you guys a little bit before tonight's events are over.

00:03:23.380 But in terms of what I'm looking at, I want to see how the electoral map changes compared to the past few elections.

00:03:32.420 Here in BC also, just speaking provincially, we had a provincial election recently.

00:03:39.160 There was a provincial election in Ontario not too long ago.

00:03:42.880 So I'm wondering, like, is there voter fatigue, election fatigue?

00:03:48.360 What's going on?

00:03:49.380 Because in BC, at least, we saw a huge change where the conservative, provincial conservative

00:03:54.760 party that was virtually non-existent or in dormant for a while, suddenly surged and almost

00:04:02.540 unseated David Evie. They came within a few seats there. And I just think from the voter turnout,

00:04:09.980 the interest in this election, it's going to be very, very close.

00:04:14.760 I think it's going to be close too. I'll put it this way. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is

00:04:22.380 nonpartisan, meaning we don't care what color the jersey is of the government. If they're screwing

00:04:28.220 up big time, we will chew their legs off. So with that understood, even if this were the blue team

00:04:36.020 that had been in charge the past 10 years, I'm so angry at this government right now. And it's on

00:04:42.500 behalf of working people. They have doubled the debt. They have introduced and jacked up punishing

00:04:49.680 taxes on the basics of life. Till five minutes ago, remember folks, whenever we would say the

00:04:58.020 carbon tax is unfair, it's costing people too much money, it's not helping the environment,

00:05:02.360 how could you punish someone for heating their home or driving to work? Whenever we complained

00:05:07.300 about that, we were called deniers or monsters until it became politically inconvenient for

00:05:13.940 these guys and now they've reduced the carbon tax down to zero for now and the law is still on the

00:05:20.800 books something to keep in mind so that is why and we get emails all the time we have a lot of

00:05:27.240 supporters across Canada and we personally read the emails from these people there's a lot of

00:05:33.760 working people who are barely hanging on and that really makes me angry and I think average people 1.00

00:05:42.240 who don't always come out and vote who may not be you know always watching the politics shows and

00:05:47.660 stuff they're not part of the ottawa bubble maybe they don't answer pollsters phone calls

00:05:51.340 i think they're mad as hell and so i think that there is going to be a change i do um if it's a 0.59

00:05:57.000 minority then things are going to get real tangly real fast because i can't see the conservatives

00:06:02.660 working with the bloc because they don't want to work with the separatist government um but i can

00:06:07.980 see something happening william remember back in 2008 when it was the liberals and the ndp and the

00:06:14.780 bloc trying to gang up on harper and then he prorogued parliament and it was a complete kerfuffle

00:06:19.820 so i think that could happen tonight but we'll see um i can't remember an election this volatile

00:06:27.420 with this big of topics in a long long time in canada so i'm really grateful to the folks who

00:06:32.300 who are listening and watching right now, because we've got a gangbuster of a show tonight. Juno

00:06:38.720 News has got a great show starting at the top of the hour. Make sure you're tuned in for that.

00:06:43.720 If you want to join a super special chat, there is one there just for Juno News subscribers. So

00:06:51.540 of course, you're more than welcome to join us on our chats on YouTube. We'd love to see your

00:06:55.300 comments there. We're going to have a social media expert that's going to be on the show tonight,

00:06:58.920 starting at the top of the clock same goes for rumble okay all those great platforms but if you

00:07:03.720 want to be part of this special juno club you have to be a subscriber to juno news to be part of that

00:07:09.560 live stream chat so head on over to junonews.com you can sign up to become a member and then you're

00:07:15.800 part of this really cool substack chat i can't wait to go join it i'm going to follow it for

00:07:19.960 the rest of the evening once we're done here so folks once again head on over that way we'd love

00:07:24.360 love to hear your thoughts. Let us know how you've been feeling the past few years. What's on the

00:07:29.100 line for you? Is affordability a key issue for you? Is censorship a key issue for you? Are you

00:07:34.400 worried about tariffs coming from the United States? We would like to know. We're going to

00:07:38.420 go around the horn here because we have a lot of topics to go over. Who wants to kick us off here

00:07:42.600 on the fact that we have seen Mark Carney kind of eating the lunch of the Conservative Party?

00:07:50.180 I'll start off quickly with the carbon tax.

00:07:53.500 Now, straight up, Taxpayers Federation, super happy anytime taxpayers save money.

00:07:59.600 So if you reduce that carbon tax down to zero, you're saving people about 20 cents per liter at the pump.

00:08:05.880 That's about 13 bucks per fill up on a minivan.

00:08:08.280 That's a big deal.

00:08:08.920 So I've noticed that right down to the bed of the pickup truck yesterday that the Kearney team was taking a few pages out of the Polyev playbook.

00:08:17.960 Who wants to kick off on some of the other elements that we've seen similarities with?

00:08:22.900 I mean, I have to laugh, right?

00:08:24.500 You know, here's Mark Carney taking over this tired liberal government and, you know,

00:08:29.880 immediately adopting some of the things that Pierre Pelley Everett and the Conservative

00:08:33.920 Party have been talking about for years and years, saying, oh, they're a great idea.

00:08:38.820 And then the Liberal Party saying, look, we, you know, vote for change, vote liberal.

00:08:43.120 As if not 15 minutes before Mark Carney showed up, they were standing up in the House of Commons and saying anybody who opposes this carbon tax is a planet killer.

00:08:53.920 I famously remember Mark Holland when people talked about rising gas prices and the carbon tax on fuel and how it's going to make going on family road trips so expensive.

00:09:04.720 And he said, well, if you take your family on a road trip, then you just want to watch the planet burn.

00:09:10.240 he roared in response. What a lunatic response that was. And so, you know, he's the change agent 0.98

00:09:17.100 representing a longtime incumbent government. Only, in my opinion, in liberal land does that

00:09:23.260 kind of logic make sense. The example I have, which, you know, there's no question if there's

00:09:28.260 an issue Pierre Polyevre has been talking about from day one, apart from maybe the overall cost

00:09:33.000 of living, I think it's about housing. He's talking about homes. He's talking about building

00:09:36.740 new homes, put out a mini documentary about why housing prices have gone up and why so few homes

00:09:42.880 are being built. And one of his big bold policies was to scrap the GST on new home purchases. So if

00:09:51.200 you're buying a brand new house for the first time, you don't have to pay GST on it. Well,

00:09:56.520 lo and behold, you know, stealing Mark Carney, thieving Mark Carney said, well, that sounds like

00:10:01.400 great idea that my party deeply opposed but who cares what they think i'm in charge now and this

00:10:07.240 is what i'm going to do and he literally introduced the exact same policy and you know you have to

00:10:12.760 laugh if it weren't so incredibly frustrating i think for the conservative opposition who spent

00:10:18.120 oh so many years talking about this issue and focusing on it i can only hope that why would

00:10:25.000 you vote for the guy who only jumped on board with the policy 15 minutes ago when you could be on

00:10:30.360 board with the guy who created the policy put it forward and loudly defended it for the past three

00:10:35.320 years well to be fair william like he just touched down so i mean give the guy a break right yeah i

00:10:42.440 just want to jump off william because i don't think they just opposed it i think they voted against it

00:10:47.640 in the house of commons when it was introduced uh i think it was melissa lanceman introduced a

00:10:53.000 private members bill to axe the GST, and the liberals voted against that policy. And here

00:11:00.600 they are adopting it as their own, dressing it up as completely original, when people who pay

00:11:07.280 attention obviously know it's not. And I think it really speaks to the Liberal Party's chameleon-like

00:11:14.100 ability to shape itself into anything that they think will get them into power. Because when it

00:11:22.580 boils down to actual principles and real values, I don't think they have any. They just do what's

00:11:29.780 convenient to get power and get back in government. And we see it with the shift that Mark Carney

00:11:35.880 has brought with the narrative of his party. But we also see it with what they did with the NDP.

00:11:42.860 With the coalition Jagmeet Singh got in with, Justin Trudeau, he basically gave his policies

00:11:49.460 to the liberals. Now the liberals can run on, we introduced pharma care, we introduced dental care.

00:11:56.760 Jagmeet Singh gave all of the NDP policies to the liberals. And I think that's why they are

00:12:02.700 successful because they shape and mold themselves to whatever they think will achieve results

00:12:09.280 without actually standing on serious solid ground. Isaac? Yeah, a few things I wanted to

00:12:15.900 coattail off there firstly cosman of course did a series where he uh examined the values of mark

00:12:21.100 carney in his book values which he's largely contradicted for example the carbon tax he said

00:12:26.460 politicians who abandoned the carbon tax should be held accountable but here he is abandoning the

00:12:30.860 carbon tax or at least temporarily because the conservatives said and they'll remind you that of

00:12:35.660 course the carbon tax still exists he just lowered the price to zero for now and we'll see what

00:12:39.260 happens if he wins the election because he could easily just raise it back up without parliamentary

00:12:43.660 approval as he did lower it to zero dollars and then just touching quickly on the housing policies

00:12:49.740 once carney copied pierre's uh one million dollar gst free on tax homes pierre of course raised it

00:12:56.460 to 1.3 million dollars but another thing interesting to add is carney's copying the same

00:13:01.580 thing trudeau was which is essentially giving these fairy tale numbers about housing builds

00:13:06.220 and we saw housing starts decrease under trudeau year over year but he said oh we'll build 500

00:13:10.300 thousand a year we just have no possible way of accomplishing that uh i'll get into this a bit

00:13:14.460 later but carney might actually accomplish it through mobile homes so that'll be the new

00:13:17.500 home ownership dream for canadians you can live in a trailer with no parking space i was reading

00:13:22.940 you know chris you have to laugh you wonder if the same numbers that they're pulling for the new

00:13:27.660 housing builds is the same place they got that number for how many trees they were going to play

00:13:32.460 i was going to say that how many trillions of trees did they promise quadrillions of trees a tree

00:13:39.500 every meter in the country and of course they ended up planting like 62 or something like that

00:13:44.620 william william that was gonna that's the magical lumber that they're going to use to build the

00:13:50.460 magical houses out of i just didn't piece it together yet you know when i was in school

00:13:56.620 was caught copying another student's homework the student caught copying was given to zero and i

00:14:02.700 really hope that that's what voters are thinking of doing today they're looking at the copycat

00:14:07.420 Kearney and they're saying this guy deserves a zero for copying other people's homework. We

00:14:11.980 shouldn't reward bad behavior like that. You know, there's so many things here. Number one,

00:14:17.900 yeah, people need to read the details real close on those housing promises because they were

00:14:22.460 manufactured homes and nothing wrong with that. I've lived in a trailer park. I absolutely loved

00:14:26.620 doing so. My son was born there. But if it's a government owned mobile home with no parking

00:14:33.900 space, that's getting really big government-y, control-y and expensive and terrible in my mind.

00:14:39.200 You got to really read the tea leaves on that. And I really must stress, Cosmin, thank you so much

00:14:44.980 for reading that book, because I really don't think that enough folks did. So I read his book.

00:14:52.540 I read Mark Carney's book, especially the chapters on climate change, on the ones on carbon tax.

00:14:59.320 The ones on COVID, frankly, were making me too angry because he was praising lockdowns.

00:15:04.700 He thought it was a great idea to have that kind of control.

00:15:07.320 So I read the areas on the carbon tax.

00:15:10.180 Folks, this dude is married to carbon taxes. 0.99

00:15:13.840 He describes them as a cornerstone to his worldview.

00:15:17.800 He says repeatedly that we must have carbon taxes and they must constantly increase.

00:15:23.640 On top of that, he states in his book that he wants 80% of oil and gas to remain in the ground.

00:15:31.300 So when he starts telling you energy superpower stuff, he's talking about like reflecting sunshine down a pipeline or something.

00:15:39.020 He's not talking about oil and gas.

00:15:40.980 He also says that he believes that 90% of our energy needs can be met with wind and solar over the next few years.

00:15:49.540 So it gets real wild.

00:15:51.000 So I just wanted to call you out there, Cosman.

00:15:52.760 thank you for covering that book. More people need to understand what he's got in store here

00:15:57.960 if he does become an elected prime minister. Do we want to still go along with some of these

00:16:03.320 conservative policies that are showing up in the Liberals? Do we want to talk about the

00:16:07.400 apprenticeship grants or building infrastructure and supporting economic growth?

00:16:12.440 Yeah, I mean, to me, it's just the sheer volume of how much they took, which basically says the

00:16:18.440 the conservatives were full of good ideas. We were just so pigheaded that we wouldn't listen

00:16:22.880 to them for the last, you know, 10 years. And now that we've realized we're in deep political 0.62

00:16:28.120 trouble, we're going to steal every last one of them, slap a red cover on it and claim they're

00:16:32.520 our own. And it's the height of arrogance to suggest that somehow this represents real change.

00:16:39.260 I mean, you know, and I really hope voters think about that. I really hope voters carefully

00:16:44.100 consider, are these just things they're saying right now in this election period because they

00:16:50.720 know they're politically in trouble? Or do you genuinely believe that this longtime liberal

00:16:57.140 government woke up at the beginning of the election fundamentally believing different

00:17:02.360 things than they have believed in the last 10 years? So I really hope that that is something

00:17:06.080 that people think about when they're going to vote today. And by the way, anybody who followed

00:17:11.040 the legacy media only during this campaign wouldn't even really know about the level of

00:17:17.060 copycatting that went on because they've given Mark Carney and his government a free pass on

00:17:22.980 this issue all along. And thankfully, we have independent media. We have Juno News with True

00:17:27.700 North. We have other brave, industrious, independent media out there who are doing the

00:17:31.640 heavy lifting on shedding the truth on this. But don't be fooled for a minute that the legacy media

00:17:37.980 would have helped bring any of this to light. They had to be dragged kicking and screaming

00:17:42.520 on some of these things to even report on them at all.

00:17:46.120 And in fact, they were kicking and screaming at the leaders debate, but we'll get into that a bit

00:17:51.200 later. Yeah, that was something. And just speaking of kicking and screaming, I do need to hammer this

00:17:57.680 home. A huge chunk of what we would call legacy media or mainstream media are now on government

00:18:04.540 payroll. I think this is the first time ever that this has happened. I know that my video just went

00:18:10.300 out. I'm just going to fix it up really quick here. But this is super frustrating because

00:18:14.820 we've got the CBC, okay, the CBC that cost taxpayers $1.4 billion this year. And on top

00:18:23.380 of that now, we have got the so-called mainstream media that is again, largely dependent now on

00:18:29.620 government funding, which is taxpayers funding. And I'm going to lay this down because I just

00:18:34.420 finished speaking with Tristan Hopper about this, who's a very good guy. He's over the National

00:18:38.520 Post. And he points out himself, hey, you know, my organization is getting some money too. And it

00:18:43.700 really bothers him. Even if you are the best W5 journalist, you are speaking truth to power,

00:18:50.760 you are holding them to account, you are asking the really tough questions. It's the perception

00:18:55.500 of bias that is the problem with trust. This is where it gets so unfair for both taxpayers

00:19:01.460 and for the journalists on the other side, where it's not up to them whether their company takes

00:19:06.640 money. I've said it before, even if it were, God rest his soul, Rex Murphy, okay, reading the news

00:19:13.140 on CBC, with Don Cherry reading the sports, I'd love watching that. But taxpayers shouldn't be

00:19:20.160 paying for it. So this is the first big federal election, I think, where a huge majority of the

00:19:26.420 mainstream media has been on government payroll. And so I think that's something for folks to keep

00:19:30.940 in mind while they're watching the results roll in, which is also why you should make sure that

00:19:35.660 you get all your friends and neighbors to stay tuned and make sure you're watching the Juno

00:19:40.420 News special. It's kicking off in about 40 minutes time. Candace is hosting it. She's got a plethora 0.95

00:19:46.680 of really cool guests. We've got reporters in Ottawa, Toronto, and Burnaby for some reason.

00:19:52.980 William, why did we send somebody to Burnaby? What's possibly happening there? Are we expecting?

00:19:58.420 Well, they lost the bet. No, I'm just kidding.

00:20:02.320 They're hanging out at BCIT where I went to J school. Yes.

00:20:05.440 One of the interesting stories of this election is quite late in it, Mr. Singh came out,

00:20:10.140 Jagmeet Singh said that he knew that what he was doing was going to cost his party seats. It was

00:20:17.660 going to hurt his party politically, but he just needed to stop a conservative majority government.

00:20:25.460 And that is why instead of collapsing the liberal government in the fall, he held on and waited. Now,

00:20:31.860 coincidentally, of course, in that time, he also qualified for his very generous taxpayer-funded

00:20:37.820 MP pension. But, you know, even just keeping Mr. Singh out of word, he said, I would rather have

00:20:43.840 stopped the Conservatives than my own party win more seats in this election. And that's got to

00:20:48.680 say something to the Democrats. So now, not only are the Democrats clearly not going to win this

00:20:54.200 election, the question will be, can they even retain enough seats to hold official party status?

00:20:59.540 It's unclear if Jagmeet Singh will hold on to his own seat in this election. He is very much at risk

00:21:06.200 of losing it. So we do have a True North reporter in the New Democrat headquarters. He's going to

00:21:12.280 be reporting, well, attempting to report from it. The New Democrats, like the Liberals, aren't super

00:21:16.380 friendly towards media who don't just ask pre-prepared questions or tell them how wonderful

00:21:22.220 they're doing. So we're going to do our best to cover it, but we're definitely covering it from

00:21:26.640 either inside or outside the venue, depending on how the night goes. And possibly we'll see if

00:21:31.340 Mr. Jagmeet Singh is one of the Canadians looking for work in the morning.

00:21:36.200 You know, I spent a lot of time growing up on Vancouver Island.

00:21:40.460 I've known a lot of new Democrats, including professionally on Parliament Hill.

00:21:44.880 Knew Jack Layton pretty well.

00:21:46.460 Talked to him quite a bit.

00:21:47.740 I don't understand Jagmeet Singh.

00:21:49.960 Like, I don't understand his thinking.

00:21:52.260 I don't understand his strategy.

00:21:54.140 And I've heard from lots of former Layton-type staffers that are just like,

00:21:59.140 like they don't get it either.

00:22:00.920 So that'll be really interesting to follow.

00:22:03.080 I'm glad we have somebody stationed in Burnaby.

00:22:04.980 Godspeed to them getting in that building. Do we want to move on to the polls and what happened

00:22:10.580 with the Trump factor? A friend of mine earlier today likened what has happened to the conservative

00:22:16.980 huge lead in the polls. And I've always said this before, polls don't matter outside of elections,

00:22:22.500 folks. But he had this huge lead in the polls without the Trump factor. And the friend of

00:22:27.380 mine said, yeah, it's like having a really great crop in the ground. It's growing amazing. You're

00:22:32.100 you're getting ready to harvest, and then a hailstorm hits you. And you don't know what's

00:22:37.320 going to happen next. You might be able to save it. You might have crop insurance. You don't know

00:22:40.720 yet. Who wants to kick this off on the so-called Trump factor and what's happened with the polls

00:22:45.460 this time around? Yeah, Chris, I can kick this off because I covered an article that, or sorry,

00:22:51.300 I wrote an article that covered a poll that really showed, I found this to be one of the

00:22:55.460 most important polls of the electoral period because it really showed why people were supporting

00:23:00.040 the parties they did. This was a

00:23:02.040 Leger poll between April 11th

00:23:04.140 and 14th with a sample of

00:23:05.420 3,005 respondents, a margin of error no greater

00:23:08.120 than 1.79%, but it showed that

00:23:10.120 Liberal voters were voting Liberal for a specific

00:23:11.960 reason and the same for Conservatives.

00:23:14.000 So this, and the majority in each

00:23:15.960 instance, interestingly, 6 out of

00:23:18.100 10 Liberal voters said they were supporting

00:23:19.920 the party because they were motivated

00:23:22.120 by fear of President Donald Trump

00:23:23.860 and they felt that Mark Carney was the best

00:23:25.980 person to deal with this, probably because the legacy media

00:23:27.940 told them so.

00:23:28.700 and conversely of course 76 percent of conservatives were voting for the conservative

00:23:34.480 party primarily based on hope because they felt that pierre poleva was the leader who

00:23:39.120 could best provide a better future in canada to live work raise children raise a family really

00:23:43.820 make canada its own prosperous nation so i mean that that poll really broke down the election i

00:23:49.400 think in showing the reasons that people are supporting these parties i mean what do you guys

00:23:53.080 think. The key thing I was looking at is the generational divide. I mean, who would have

00:24:00.440 thought that the 18 to 35-year-old vote would swing conservative? And I've seen multiple polls

00:24:09.000 as I've been watching this election, where that vote group, voter group, actually outnumbers

00:24:16.340 for the conservatives over the liberals the NDP aren't capturing it either so it's astounding

00:24:23.900 right like we're seeing a whole change when we're talking about generations people used to

00:24:29.360 think of conservative voters in such a specific way they were usually older people right more

00:24:34.660 established people but that's not the case and and it really tells us something about what people

00:24:40.960 see in Pierre Polyev, especially young people. And as Isaac mentioned, they seem to be voting

00:24:47.720 for hope that they will have a future, that they will be able to afford homes and live the same

00:24:53.580 life that their parents and grandparents had in this country.

00:24:58.420 Yeah, it is very interesting. I think we've now reached the point where there are two

00:25:02.600 very different Canadas. There is a Canada, if you are retired or very secure in your work,

00:25:10.100 So maybe, for example, working for the bureaucracy of a government in some capacity, if you own your own home or purchased it when it was a lot cheaper and therefore, you know, as the cost of living goes up, as mortgage rates increase, it actually doesn't matter so much if your mortgage is tiny.

00:25:29.860 You know, if you only have a very small mortgage, you're insulated a bit from that.

00:25:34.840 And so there's that Canada that I think really does line up with where a lot of older Canadians happen to be.

00:25:41.120 And for them, I don't know if they really understand what it's like for people who aren't in that situation.

00:25:47.540 They don't understand what it's like for new graduates who spend, you know, it used to be I couldn't find a job for a few weeks after graduating, too.

00:25:56.360 I couldn't find a job for a few months after graduating.

00:25:59.240 Now it's, I can't find a job for a few years after graduating, and I can't move out of my parents' house, and I can't afford to put a down payment on a home.

00:26:10.340 I can't even save up enough for a down payment because prices escalated so quickly, and I can't afford to start a family because I know both me and my partner now have to work around the clock in order to just cover our bills.

00:26:24.300 So I think for that cohort of people, this is a very different election, and they do not see hope in Mark Carney.

00:26:33.040 They see hope in Pierre Polyever, not only because he looks a lot more like them.

00:26:37.720 He's got a young family.

00:26:39.460 He's recently, you know, you could see him having to face some of these issues much more than international WUF globalist banker Mark Carney,

00:26:47.920 who frankly doesn't know how much anything costs in a grocery store.

00:26:51.460 In fact, I'm pretty sure he doesn't even buy his own groceries.

00:26:53.380 So, you know, that's the real difference. And, you know, the vote shift is so fundamental. Another great example is, you know, there's a decent chance Elizabeth May will lose her seat in this election, which, you know, given the part of BC she represents, is not a traditional conservative heartland.

00:27:12.600 And a lot of young voters, particularly who didn't like the liberal conservative vibe, parked their vote with the Greens. And now they're saying, well, Elizabeth May says we should have higher taxes to give more money to international countries because of Trump's foreign aid cuts.

00:27:29.920 and they're like, we can barely afford to buy groceries and pay rent, and you want to raise my

00:27:34.560 taxes to send the money out of Canada? That's lunacy for that. And I think, you know, she's 1.00

00:27:40.380 going to face the same judgment that a lot of people maybe in that age bracket are, that they

00:27:45.040 just do not understand what a huge portion of this country is going through when it comes to jobs,

00:27:50.020 houses, bills, and the cost of living, and being able to move your life forward, you know, being

00:27:55.120 able to move into the next stage of life rather than being stuck where you are right now yeah

00:28:03.440 if i can hit it off i think this was perfectly encapsulated in what some people are calling

00:28:09.360 the meme of the election and i'm sure all of you have seen the photos of the so-called branford

00:28:17.040 boomer there they are we we've uh censored a bit of it because we're not so sure youtube would like

00:28:23.520 that but this everyone was talking about it and i think there's a reason it really hit

00:28:29.520 the nail on the head in terms of how people how young people particularly feel that older

00:28:35.920 generations view their circumstance and situation and i'm not saying that people who are older

00:28:43.760 seniors established people even all are like that but liberal voters have shown a disregard

00:28:51.360 by wanting to re-elect essentially the same government that put us in this situation.

00:28:58.020 And when you look at the poll numbers and the breakdown,

00:29:01.780 the support for the Liberals comes from that age group.

00:29:06.760 If I may, a couple of things here.

00:29:09.620 To your point exactly, Cosman, not all seniors or boomers are in that position.

00:29:15.900 I just got off the phone a couple of days ago with a senior citizen,

00:29:19.060 and I don't know why I didn't ask personal questions, but he and his wife, he's in his

00:29:24.460 seventies are still paying rent. So they don't own a house. And so they're getting rent evicted

00:29:30.140 like real soon. And like, he's a guy that used to work on cars all the time. Like he worked in a

00:29:35.420 body shop and he's older now and his hands hurt so much that it's hard for him to hold tools. Sorry.

00:29:42.300 It's just upsetting hearing from these people because the cost of living is just getting so

00:29:47.820 out of hand for so many people. So number one, my heart goes out to those folks too. Number two,

00:29:55.980 there is a big rain cloud for boomers here. It's called the home equity tax. And I really need to 0.99

00:30:03.120 flag this hard because this is something the Canadian Taxpayers Federation has been investigating

00:30:09.460 now for a couple of years. And we have caught this liberal government red handed. Okay. Really

00:30:16.100 looking hard at taxing the wealth of your home equity. So your primary residence is government

00:30:23.540 speak for the house you own and live in. Okay. Up until now, since the seventies, you do not pay

00:30:32.160 tax on the income, the profit you make from the sale of that house. That is why so many people

00:30:38.360 have used the house that they own as their nest egg, especially if they don't have some big

00:30:43.440 government golden pension to rely upon. Okay. Someone who's running their own business. Somebody

00:30:48.100 who's in the private sector often puts their investment into their house, imagining that when

00:30:53.040 they're old, they'll sell, they'll downsize to a teeny tiny apartment or move in with one of their

00:30:58.240 kids and use the rest of that money to live out the rest of their lives. Well, guess what? That's

00:31:03.320 worth, I think in the more than a trillion dollars for the wealth across Canada. And this government

00:31:10.300 is sniffing hard. So there's three elements of evidence here. Okay. Number one, the liberal

00:31:15.480 government made you start reporting the sale of your primary residence on your tax form.

00:31:20.520 If they're not going to tax you on it, why are they asking you that? Number two, they have funded

00:31:26.660 almost $500,000 worth of studies through the federal government to investigate home taxes,

00:31:34.220 including a home equity tax. Three, they denied meeting with these pushers of the home equity tax,

00:31:42.360 but we filed freedom of information requests. And guess what? The PMO staff on at least two

00:31:48.040 occasions met with one of the biggest pushers of home equity taxes in Canada. And this is where

00:31:53.600 it gets weird. You guys have been in the game long enough. You know that usually if you mention

00:31:58.540 something and a party wants to run away from it fast, they freak out and they deny it right away.

00:32:03.460 Like even on a weekend, they'll come out and deny it. No, no, no, nothing to see here. Crickets. We've raised this during the election campaign, folks. Crickets. Nothing coming from the Liberals. So that's something to watch. And you guys were mentioning the disparity between the have-nots, right, and the so-called have-yachts. This is a report that's from the Privy Council, okay?

00:32:26.840 That is basically the bureaucracy that manages the PMO. So there's the permanent government, the swamp of government. That's the bureaucracy. And there's the politically elected people, the staffers and the politicians. This is from the bureaucracy warning that on the current trajectory, we are going to wind up with great disparity between property owners and those who don't own property.

00:32:47.500 so again these policies are up for grabs anybody who wants to grab a brain and change them is a

00:32:53.200 good thing to do but it's a huge element that is uh that is looming large here um do we want to go

00:32:58.700 around the horn here and talk about the most significant policy announcements who wants to

00:33:02.520 kick that one off sure i can go first uh give her cause i think it maybe not the most significant

00:33:11.100 but the most brazen, so to speak, was when Kearney floated a CBC increase to their funding,

00:33:20.160 essentially a bribe, dumping tax dollars into CBC's annual budget. And I'm not sure exactly

00:33:29.020 what the current figure is, but the last time I checked, it was about $1.4 billion.

00:33:34.400 It is.

00:33:34.860 I think it's gone up significantly. And Chris, you might be able to speak more to that. But

00:33:40.380 it just goes to show right before the election day, you're willing to do that. And there's so

00:33:46.720 many questions, as we've discussed, about the impartiality of the legacy media during this

00:33:52.600 election, especially because they're funded by the government and the CBC, most chiefly,

00:34:00.320 because we're the ones who are getting our tax dollars sent to their budget.

00:34:06.060 all right I can go next and I think this for me is the most significant policy announcement

00:34:13.260 especially for anyone who cares about economics or fiscal responsibility and

00:34:18.020 somewhat unfortunately we saw Pierre not release his platform until about a week ago which I just

00:34:23.960 want to say is because Carney as you'll all remember allocated this election to be the

00:34:29.100 shortest time frame possible which is 28 days and then Pierre might have wanted Carney to come up

00:34:33.720 with his costed platform first, because we've seen no matter what policies Pierre comes out

00:34:38.300 with, Carney seems to copy them. So he kind of had to wait until Carney came out with his. But

00:34:43.460 just quickly into the numbers here. So they both came out with their costed platforms from the

00:34:49.220 baseline deficit that the parliamentary budget officer provided, which was $141.7 billion

00:34:54.260 between 2025 and 2028. And Polyev's costed platform would see the deficit fall to just

00:35:01.040 over 100 billion whereas carney's would see it rise to almost 225 billion dollars in new debt

00:35:06.920 so carney wants to add 129 billion dollars in new spending uh some of which is on climate

00:35:14.180 initiatives and we saw other ludicrous things in carney's budget such as a carbon tariff on other

00:35:19.320 countries oh you guys don't have a carbon tax well you have to pay this carbon tariff and his

00:35:22.960 whole platform is against trump's tariffs but now he's implementing his own i mean it's just the 0.69

00:35:28.200 more you look into it, the more ridiculous it is. And I could go through this policy for an hour, 0.68

00:35:32.180 but just, I guess, highlighting a few more things. We already pay Canadians $1 billion per week in

00:35:40.100 interest on the federal debt. And those charges would rise by over $5.6 billion over that four

00:35:46.760 year period under Carney. But with Polyev at the helm, they would fall $2.4 billion. So I mean,

00:35:52.220 this is ridiculous. And by the way, the $1 billion we pay weekly is more than Ottawa spends on 0.88

00:35:56.360 healthcare payments to the province you might want to comment on this chris because i know you're

00:36:00.040 really involved with it too well it's just maddening um i remember so straight up when i heard

00:36:06.840 carney bring out his costed platform i thought i was mishearing it because for a normie you know

00:36:12.440 not us okay political psychopaths who have to obsessively watch things okay for a normal person

00:36:18.360 um i think they kind of perceived him as the money guy like oh yeah he's a banker he's good

00:36:23.880 with money and then he's like nope i'm going to put more money on the debt than the drama teacher

00:36:30.040 like the banker's worse with money than the drama teacher i did not see that one coming so i think

00:36:35.480 he lost a lot of traction and a lot of credibility there so crazy amount of spending you're absolutely

00:36:41.720 right isaac uh hidden in there is what they call border adjustment mechanisms which is government

00:36:48.360 talk for a tariff. Folks, we've heard all this tariff talk about Trump. Carney's going to hit

00:36:55.320 you with a tariff, his own tariff. It's a carbon tariff. It's different from the industrial carbon

00:37:02.120 tax. Why is he going to do this? Because he believes so fervently in carbon taxes that when

00:37:08.640 he looks around the world and finds a country that doesn't have a carbon tax, that upsets him.

00:37:14.620 that upsets him so much he's going to punish that import into our country with his own carbon tariff

00:37:22.080 and so that means that stuff I just did a little shopping trip did you we all know Windex is made

00:37:27.140 in Wisconsin guess what Wisconsin in the United States United States doesn't have an industrial

00:37:32.660 carbon tax or a federal carbon tax so guess what that's going to have a new tariff on it same thing

00:37:38.120 goes for my kids pajamas things same thing goes for the bananas coming from South America a lot

00:37:42.800 of countries around the world the majority of them don't have a national carbon tax so this

00:37:48.060 carbon tariff thank you isaac for pointing this out it's right in there and they're guesstimating

00:37:53.360 at the start it's going to cost us about half a billion dollars with a b just that one tariff and

00:38:00.540 we know with government they always take in more money they always waste more money than they say

00:38:04.380 they're going to so probably double that man oh man william did you want to have a kick at this

00:38:08.840 Sorry, Chris, can I just add one thing? There's a hundred things I missed, obviously, but this perfectly highlights the lunacy of it all. Look, when Freeland was about to release the fall economic statement for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, we expected the deficit to be about $40 billion. Of course, it was $62 billion. She resigned the day before because it was so bad. And here Carney is now doubling the debt. So he's saying, oh, Freeland, it was so bad that you resigned. I'll do you one worse. I mean, it's just insane.

00:38:34.580 thank you for pointing that out let's repeat that okay real slow do people remember this drama that

00:38:41.420 was happening it feels like a year ago but it was only like a couple months ago and freeland was

00:38:46.100 supposed to come out with this terrible you know steaming bag of a of a of a budget okay she was 0.96

00:38:52.820 only supposed to go 40 billion dollars over budget only a 40 billion dollar deficit but then she was

00:38:59.420 told to come out with a 60 plus billion dollar deficit. So spending way too much money. And the

00:39:04.760 narrative goes that she made a principled stand and she said no. And that apparently Trudeau

00:39:10.480 wanted to hire this guy, Mark Carney, to be the finance minister instead of her over this

00:39:16.960 kerfuffle. And now exactly to your point, Isaac, he's the leader of the party. He's spending,

00:39:23.700 he's putting way more money down on the debt than what they were saying before. It truly is mind

00:39:28.660 bending. Oh, last thing there on the costed platforms, if I may, for the conservatives,

00:39:32.760 I don't know if you wanted to get into this, but we were really, okay, number one, we would like

00:39:37.400 them to balance the budget in the fourth year of their term. Based on what they're planning to do,

00:39:42.340 I think they can actually do it. So I'm actually quite optimistic that they will be able to make

00:39:46.580 that a good news story at the end. Second, super happy to see them come out with a Taxpayer

00:39:51.560 Protection Act. Like those of us here, I think there's three of us here sitting in Alberta,

00:39:55.900 okay we don't have a sales tax because we don't we have a taxpayer protection act that shields us

00:40:01.460 from it okay that is why we have lower taxes here for for polyev to say you know what i'm

00:40:06.940 going to take this national and say if i create a new tax or raise your current taxes you'll have

00:40:13.380 to give me a say so i'm going to ask you first in a referendum that means a lot for taxpayers so we

00:40:19.640 were happy to see that one in there too i can just jump in we got a super chat from wayne here

00:40:25.220 for a hundred dollars and i wanted to thank him thank you wayne it's very generous of you and i'll

00:40:30.500 just read it out he said i'd like to put my cards on the similar election dynamics as the usa in

00:40:37.540 2024 but i'm about to start holding my breath an election for similar policy and breaches with the

00:40:44.900 same cabinet is a lose-lose solution to our future well said wayne thank you wayne so much for

00:40:52.020 participating. And folks, remember, we are in a countdown mode right now. We are about 19 minutes

00:40:57.720 before the top of the clock. That is when the Juno News election special kicks off. Candice

00:41:03.380 Malcolm's going to be hosting. It's going to have all of your fan favorites, lots of reporters out

00:41:07.740 in the field, including in Ottawa, Toronto, and Burnaby, to find out what's going to happen in

00:41:13.920 Jagmeet Singh's riding. Lots of contributors all through the night. We're going to be here. We're

00:41:18.220 going to have that ticker across the bottom that shows you that really stressful C count that drives

00:41:23.240 me crazy, but I can't look away from it. So if you want to be part of the special chat group, okay,

00:41:30.020 feel free, of course, to participate on Rumble and on YouTube and online. But if you want to be part

00:41:35.280 of the special Juno News chat group, that's for subscribers only. So you've got about 18 minutes

00:41:41.420 left to head on over to junonews.com, subscribe there, and you can then join the election night

00:41:47.720 chat because they're going to be here all night uh william did you want to get into your most

00:41:52.520 significant policy announcements or isaac do you have more timbits for us no i could go on but

00:41:57.600 william should definitely speak no i think you should go on isaac i think we're going to move

00:42:01.880 to my thing now you know just kidding poor william is falling asleep i'm babbling here i would say

00:42:06.700 first of all you don't have to join the live chat right at the very beginning if at any point in the

00:42:11.300 night you want to become a juno subscriber you're free to do so so don't want to make everybody

00:42:15.500 think that they only have 17 minutes left to get that done you're losing my pressure wedge william

00:42:22.300 yeah in terms of uh my biggest issue again i feel it's one where the liberals sort of tried to steal

00:42:29.260 it from pierre but they didn't do a great job of the heist and it is the idea that canada could

00:42:36.620 once again become a country where we could actually build things and have them become

00:42:43.020 economic generators in this country. And as a Calgarian, as someone who has talked about this

00:42:49.100 issue for decades now, making me feel old, building new pipelines was something that we

00:42:54.800 have lobbied for forever. We said Energy East is a great idea because it means we don't only have

00:43:01.500 to sell our oil to the United States. We can supply oil for our domestic energy needs because

00:43:07.360 a lot of Quebec's oil was coming from places like Saudi Arabia at the time, which maybe I'm biased.

00:43:12.720 I think Alberta oil, preferable to Saudi Arabian oil. And we could get it to refineries on the

00:43:18.720 East Coast in places like New Brunswick, where we would then have the opportunity to export it

00:43:23.920 to Europe, to lots of places who are in need of energy. And you had Quebec saying, oh,

00:43:30.320 there's no social acceptance for pipelines and anything like that. And then mostly you had the

00:43:35.760 Liberal government passing bills like Bill C-69 that we call the No More Pipelines Act,

00:43:42.080 which was we're going to make it so slow and costly and difficult that nobody will ever want

00:43:49.360 to build a major piece of infrastructure in this country again and you know i i did read a toronto

00:43:55.120 star article a day or so ago and after i took a shower i was gonna say are you okay and recovered

00:44:01.920 from that disturbing experience um you know the basic premise was albertans have no gratitude

00:44:08.080 we bought them the Trans Mountain Pipeline and they haven't said thank you once. And the point

00:44:12.880 is we didn't want Canada to buy the Trans Mountain Pipeline. We wanted the government

00:44:19.680 to get out of the way so that the private sector could build the Trans Mountain Pipeline. We don't

00:44:25.920 want government building infrastructure. We want the private sector to have an opportunity

00:44:31.840 to create economic growth, create jobs, and create opportunity for the rest of the country.

00:44:37.200 And it's so frustrating that, you know, you look at this expensive budget, by the way, how bad do you have to be to make Justin Trudeau look like the fiscally responsible one in this situation?

00:44:48.460 That's a remarkable achievement. But, you know, you've got Mark Carney saying, oh, we're going to invest in infrastructure to build Canada.

00:44:55.000 Well, no, you're not, because you're going to you're going to wrap the same regulations around the same red tape.

00:44:59.480 You're going to say, oh, you know, you we've discovered this rare species of birds.

00:45:03.860 So, you know, two thirds of British Columbia, we can never build in again.

00:45:07.740 And it's just going to lead to the same failed projects and and anemic economic growth.

00:45:14.320 So sorry for blasting off on that one a bit.

00:45:17.900 As someone who lives in an energy center, it just, you know, really annoys us when we see government getting in the way of what we all know to be good nation building projects.

00:45:28.480 You don't need to apologize. You're among friends here, William. We hear you. I'm going to pick up where you left off there because I really think this needs to be hammered home. That Toronto Star thing that you didn't even say thank you, like that perfectly encapsulates the tone deafness, the language barrier that I'm noticing here between the Laurentians, I will fondly call them, and the rest of us, including working Canadians who are often in Ontario.

00:45:56.840 it seems like, I don't know, the force field of language misunderstanding. I don't know where to

00:46:01.620 put it. Maybe it's in Thunder Bay. Maybe it's in Wawa. I'm not sure, but they don't seem to be

00:46:07.960 able to understand this to Williams point exactly. Okay. There was a private company. It was the

00:46:14.220 Kinder Morgan pipeline. They already owned the pipeline that ran from Edmonton, Alberta, all the

00:46:19.580 way through the Rockies out to Burnaby. It was their property. They wanted to twin it, meaning

00:46:25.660 it's already in the same place. They're just digging next to it in order to get more of

00:46:31.340 Alberta's oil and gas out to market. That's what was happening. Kinder Morgan, the actual private

00:46:37.740 company, was going to spend its own money, own money, to hire Canadian people to work on the

00:46:44.920 pipeline, okay, to give you an idea of how much money we have lost out on just in federal income

00:46:52.520 taxes. Over the last 10, 15 years or so, $13 billion just in the income taxes that would have

00:47:02.820 been taken from the workers that build these pipelines. I'm not talking royalties. I'm not

00:47:07.540 talking even about property taxes. It's mind blowing. So Kinder Morgan wanted to twin this

00:47:11.800 pipeline. They got green lights, a lot of yes, yes, yes, yes for years. And then to your point,

00:47:17.880 William, the yeses slowed down. They slowed down so much that the company finally gave up and

00:47:24.440 walked away. Then the federal government came in and said, let's spend, what is it now? It's close

00:47:29.500 to $30 billion of taxpayers' money on this thing. The idea that the star would want us to thank them

00:47:36.840 for that dumpster fire is remarkable, but I think it perfectly explains it. I will quickly point out

00:47:42.920 that as far as these policy announcements that are coming from Kearney that are making me hit 0.87

00:47:48.940 the alarm bell the most, it's the industrial carbon tax because this sucker is going to be big. 0.84

00:47:54.300 Okay. We don't know how much it's going to cost us because nobody ever asked him directly.

00:48:00.280 Unfortunately, how much is your industrial carbon tax going to cost? But to give you an indicator,

00:48:04.800 the trade union workers trade union workers of the pipe fitters in hamilton in the steel industry

00:48:14.980 are so worried about this industrial carbon tax that that trade union is endorsing polyev

00:48:21.700 that i've never seen this before in my life the boilermakers are endorsing pierre polyev and the

00:48:27.500 conservatives like tradesmen are doing this out loud with their face and on paper they're saying

00:48:32.940 that this industrial carbon tax is going to decimate the steel industry in Ontario.

00:48:37.940 I will point out I heard nothing from Premier Doug Ford about this.

00:48:42.380 Not one bit.

00:48:43.540 I didn't hear him taking on Carney saying,

00:48:45.500 hey, how much is your industrial carbon tax going to screw over my steel industry workers? 0.99

00:48:50.060 Not one bit.

00:48:50.980 So I do want to flag that as far as a policy goes,

00:48:53.520 that right now Carney tries to say that, oh, we got rid of the carbon tax.

00:48:57.580 There's a lot of underlines there.

00:48:59.800 He's changing it.

00:49:00.820 He's going to hide it as the industrial carbon tax.

00:49:02.940 Folks are still going to pay, but it's definitely still going to cost you.

00:49:06.540 Do you want to quickly here?

00:49:07.520 We got about five minutes left.

00:49:09.060 Do we want to take a look at what happened during the leaders debate?

00:49:12.860 And in particular, just before we do, we have another super chat from Stefano for $139, actually pretty much $140.

00:49:24.320 Thanks.

00:49:24.840 And Stefano says, appreciate you guys.

00:49:28.280 I'm predicting a conservative minority.

00:49:30.540 legacy media has manipulated the truth manipulated is one thing but brain dead is another very true

00:49:37.980 who in their right mind would vote for higher taxes censorship crime dei net zero etc very well

00:49:45.840 said stefano thanks again and yeah i think we should play at least the uh clip from the debate

00:49:51.900 because uh to highlight true north's work we were at the debates on the ground there uh we got to

00:49:57.800 question mark carney directly and our reporter alex zoltan uh pretty much tripped him up carney

00:50:04.520 have was hard pressed responding to his question so i think we have the clip ready here to go

00:50:13.880 oh that was a brief second of it

00:50:20.840 okay well in the meantime what he essentially asked mark carney was how many uh genders there are

00:50:27.240 and mark carney begrudgingly actually said well in terms of sexes there was two and then he also

00:50:35.000 asked whether mark carney believes that women should have a right to their own spaces free

00:50:40.600 from biological males like uh changing rooms shelters etc and mark carney had a very fumbled

00:50:48.920 answer he started saying this is canada etc we're accepting everybody has a right to be

00:50:56.280 themselves but he didn't really answer the question directly now we know after that day

00:51:03.000 because this was uh during the after the french language uh debate in the post debate media scrum

00:51:09.480 in the follow-up debate the english language debate the commission there's a leaders debates

00:51:15.960 commission that's a government appointed body that manages these things they suddenly decided

00:51:21.960 to cancel the post debate scrum abruptly like in the middle of the uh debate itself they made the

00:51:29.000 decision and it was suddenly canceled it was outrageous and there was a whole uh kerfuffle

00:51:37.400 going on within the actual debates and and where the media was gathered in the media center

00:51:43.080 now do you guys want to go off a little bit more because i was watching it from home and

00:51:48.280 And I was just astounded how they behave themselves.

00:51:52.040 It's genuinely, you know, mind boggling how the legacy media went to pieces when independent media came and were allowed to ask questions.

00:52:03.420 And this is, by the way, we jumped through hoops.

00:52:05.720 We filled out forms.

00:52:06.900 We sent in photos of our journalists who were fingerprinted or eye scanned or some process.

00:52:13.500 Maybe it was just their driver's licenses.

00:52:15.000 But ultimately, we went through the same credentialing process everybody else did.

00:52:20.020 And then because we had the temerity to ask a question that CBC and others, but mostly CBC, did not like, they had a tantrum about it.

00:52:31.860 And that meant that nobody got to ask questions the next night of the leaders debate.

00:52:36.640 CBC would rather that nobody gets to ask questions than independent media get to ask questions that they were uncomfortable with.

00:52:46.060 I mean, if that doesn't tell you why, you know, CBC needs to be defunded, I don't think there's another clear reason.

00:52:53.880 Isaac?

00:52:55.000 Yeah, if I can just give you guys a quick perspective into the eyes of a journalist working for True North, it's just so frustrating.

00:53:01.260 you know for example i go to these press conferences and i don't get a question but

00:53:05.860 the legacy media do and every single question they asked i could have stood up there and answered

00:53:09.920 it's like what are what is the point of this we we want to ask challenging questions of the

00:53:14.620 leaders during the electoral process that the voters want to know and you're asking things that

00:53:18.360 have been commented on a thousand times i mean it's just insane like i said i could answer these

00:53:23.800 questions and and that's what the legacy media for some reason wants to do instead of challenging

00:53:27.980 the leaders, poking into their values. What do you really believe? How do you really feel? What

00:53:33.000 are you really going to do to the Canadian voter base? I mean, it's just shocking to me.

00:53:37.800 It really is. Folks, I've really appreciated your input here on our special True North

00:53:42.840 pregame show, which is, of course, teeing up the Juno News election special. William, Isaac,

00:53:49.380 Cosman, all of our viewers, all of our listeners. Wow, we've got an awful lot of people watching

00:53:53.900 live right now. All of the folks who are in the

00:53:56.080 chats, thank you so much for staying

00:53:58.000 with us through the show. Be sure to

00:54:00.040 stay tuned. At the top of the clock, starting

00:54:02.120 in just five minutes, you're

00:54:04.040 going to start watching Juno

00:54:05.940 News' special election coverage.

00:54:08.420 And remember, this is

00:54:09.960 where you can get the other side of the

00:54:12.000 story.

00:54:23.900 .

00:54:53.900 We'll see you next time.

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00:57:36.900 Alright.

00:57:42.580 Hey! 0.99

00:57:46.360 Hi!

00:57:48.660 Hi!

00:57:55.560 Hi!

00:57:58.360 Hi!

00:58:00.660 Hi!

00:58:03.960 Let's get started.

00:58:33.960 Let's go.

00:59:03.960 Hi, I'm Katie.

00:59:33.940 Candice Malcolm, and I am pleased and delighted to be joined by my Juno News co-founder, Kian Bextie.

00:59:40.740 Kian is in Alberta.

00:59:43.120 I believe you're at your father's campaign watch party.

00:59:46.000 So we have a great show for you, folks.

00:59:48.660 I am so excited.

00:59:49.820 I am so delighted that you are joining us today.

00:59:52.620 Thank you for being with us.

00:59:53.860 We have been working nonstop for the past 72 hours or longer, just working on every little element of this show,

01:00:01.620 bringing you the best broadcast that we possibly can. We have an audacious goal. We want to replace

01:00:08.100 the CBC. We hope that Pierre Polyev will become prime minister just so he can defund the CBC.

01:00:15.100 But when the CBC goes, we need something to put in its place. And that is why we are building

01:00:20.740 Juneau News. We are building the future in Canada. The politicians cannot do it by themselves. Pierre

01:00:26.100 Poliev alone cannot take on the establishment and all the gatekeepers and all of the elites that 0.99

01:00:32.800 want to hold on to their power. We need to do it together, folks. We need your help. We need help

01:00:37.660 from everybody across the country. Have your voice heard. Join our movement of independent media.

01:00:43.840 Head on over to JunoNews.com and subscribe. There is so much that you get from that subscription,

01:00:49.340 and we're very pleased tonight to be offering an exclusive chat for Juno News subscribers.

01:00:54.960 So over to JunoNews.com, subscribe and join the chat.

01:00:59.120 You can talk live to myself, to Kian Bexty, and we have a decision desk tonight.

01:01:04.380 We're going to be talking about that a little later on and introduce you to our decision desk team and analysts,

01:01:11.080 really some of the smartest people in politics, part of this broadcast this evening.

01:01:15.820 So I'll give it over to you, Kian. 1.00

01:01:17.840 How are you feeling right now?

01:01:20.100 You know, I'm feeling nervous.

01:01:23.440 who knows how this is going to go it's going to be my prediction uh well i've given a more

01:01:28.720 detailed prediction in the chat that people can join by scanning the qr code there in the bottom

01:01:32.560 left of the screen where we're discussing with our subscribers live what we think is going to happen

01:01:38.560 specific writings that the decision desk is looking into and calling but overall i i can just

01:01:44.400 say my and i think this is probably not that uh unrealistic but my prediction is that it's going

01:01:50.320 to be razor thin. Whatever happens, I think, and maybe I'll eat my hat later, that it will be a

01:01:56.860 minority government. I think that whether it's liberal or conservative, it will almost certainly

01:02:02.320 be a minority government. Will Mark Carney pull through? That's the question of the night.

01:02:07.540 If you asked someone two months ago, you would say that there was no way in hell that that would

01:02:12.620 ever happen, that the liberals would secure fourth government. Maybe it'll happen tonight. We don't

01:02:17.220 know. We thought that Pierre Polyev was going to run away with this, but after Donald Trump

01:02:22.040 said what he said at the start of the election, which we could have predicted that, but we

01:02:28.420 couldn't have predicted how well the Trudeau regime would capitalize off of that. So I guess

01:02:36.000 we'll see what happens. As polls start closing, we will have live results. You can see here on

01:02:42.100 bottom of the screen uh the seat counter that we have created uh our decision desk which as candace

01:02:49.620 candace mentioned uh has some of the most uh we're and we're going to introduce them to you

01:02:54.980 some of the smartest people when it comes to politics in canada are sitting behind us in the

01:03:00.740 back room uh with computers uh double checking everything looking at the numbers they've been

01:03:06.580 polling for us for weeks now throughout the campaign they've been producing our you know

01:03:12.340 our now famous juno neighbor poll which has predicted the conservatives will pull through here

01:03:18.820 um so you know i'm excited to see what happens and our decision desk like i said some of the

01:03:22.820 smartest in the business they are going to be lining up uh this this uh list here conservative

01:03:29.220 liberal ndp block green and ppc depending on how tonight pans out you'll see those numbers go up

01:03:35.380 and down and candace can you remind us what is the actual number that we need to get uh that any

01:03:41.540 party needs to get to secure a majority government it's 170 because they added a whole bunch of new

01:03:48.260 ridings so i believe the number is 170 we can get our decision to us to confirm that um later on

01:03:54.500 now before we get any further uh we have a guest joining us right off the bat here because he's

01:03:59.780 unavailable later on hopefully later later in the night uh he'll be coming back he's got an event

01:04:04.580 and dinner to come to this one is interesting evenings folks where the longer the night goes

01:04:09.700 on i think the better news right if the polls are right and there's a huge majority government for

01:04:13.700 the liberals we'll know the results by nine o'clock pm eastern time um so the longer night goes on the

01:04:19.620 better so i think we should all be hoping for a long night not just because it's going to be

01:04:22.900 entertaining and fun here but because the longer that we wait uh you know the more likelihood of a

01:04:28.900 very tight election and the polls being completely wrong but anyways i would like to introduce our

01:04:34.100 Our first guest of the evening, who is David Knight-Lag.

01:04:36.760 David is a frequent guest of The Candace Malcolm Show and a political commentator in Alberta.

01:04:41.620 David, welcome to Juno News' election night broadcast.

01:04:44.960 Great to be here.

01:04:45.880 Hey, David. How are you doing?

01:04:47.320 Hey, I'm good. And here's to your dad taking Bow River. I can't wait.

01:04:52.620 You know, I think that he might pull through.

01:04:54.780 I think there's a solid chance that the most conservative riding in the country is going to turn out conservative this time around.

01:05:01.920 rest of the country had the wisdom of the people of bow river in every way and what a friendly bunch

01:05:07.680 too i wish they were as nice as the people of bow river that's so true uh the people in bow river

01:05:13.280 are some of the best in the country uh they are always willing to lend a hand if you need help

01:05:18.080 with branding or harvest or taking your uh you know taking your kids to soccer neighbors lend

01:05:24.800 each other hand uh hand whenever they can and it really shows you know it's way better to live in

01:05:29.840 in a conservative writing than a liberal one.

01:05:31.920 Liberal writings are metropolitan and dehumanizing.

01:05:35.300 If you come out to the country 1.00

01:05:36.600 and you see what real Canada is like,

01:05:38.700 I think most people would enjoy it and wanna move here.

01:05:41.540 Well, I was a city slicker.

01:05:44.460 I was gonna say the same thing.

01:05:46.680 The solution to any kid with attitude

01:05:49.920 is to let your friend in Bow River take him branding.

01:05:53.780 And two days later, all your attitude was gone.

01:05:56.800 I won't go into what happens in the branding parties, but, uh, you know, you, you, uh, you come back just feeling lucky not to be, uh, a future steak. And also you come back either being tough or knowing that you're not.

01:06:11.760 Yeah, that's a great point. My first job actually was working at a feedlot. I'd have to wake up at like 6am to feed the cows and we'd be working till, you know, we'd be working till sunrise before sunrise to sunset.

01:06:26.180 And I've never had a job as grueling as that.

01:06:29.520 So the jobs that the people in Bow River do are some of the toughest jobs in the world, but some of the most important.

01:06:37.620 The farmers that work in this riding feed not just Canada, but the world.

01:06:43.560 And when I've been speaking to them, this campaign has been going on, and I've been speaking with my neighbors and my friends,

01:06:50.960 The issues that they have are deep, deep issues with the way that liberals have been governing this country for the last 10 years.

01:07:01.300 One perfect example is the tariffs that are on canola right now.

01:07:07.300 China has issued tariffs on canola products, which are devastating canola farmers in this part of the country.

01:07:14.540 And they're doing that because the liberals installed tariffs on electric vehicle parts.

01:07:20.960 So they're actually retaliatory tariffs against us that were completely unprompted because the liberal government wanted to prop up this electric vehicle industry.

01:07:29.800 And as a result, the collateral damage has been given, has been sent directly to canola farmers.

01:07:36.700 And for some reason, no political party in this country has been talking about canola tariffs.

01:07:41.860 It's been an absolute disaster for canola farmers and nobody is speaking out for them.

01:07:45.960 And it's really frustrating. And I think that I know why.

01:07:48.120 it's because there's no canola farmers in any swing riding in this country um the only swing

01:07:53.000 you know canola farmers vote conservative uh and the conservative party and the liberal party have

01:07:59.720 just been completely disinterested because if if they start talking about canola tariffs they have

01:08:03.640 to own up to the fact that they're putting these unprompted tariffs against china to prop up a

01:08:10.040 industry that really shouldn't you know you should be able to sort its own issues out uh whether

01:08:15.160 they're competitive or not against china it's not the problem of canola farmers but they're putting

01:08:19.720 canola farmers out of business as a result so there's you know there's been a lot of discussion

01:08:24.120 in this election campaign about and sorry if i'm going on long-winded here there's been a lot of

01:08:28.360 discussion about a lot of issues uh and too much of it frankly has been about donald trump donald

01:08:33.880 trump is not the number one threat to canada despite all of this this this frankly blatant

01:08:40.280 lying people who think that he's seriously going to occupy this country and and take over this

01:08:46.600 country it's a it's a joke on our part that we're taking it seriously when we have so many other

01:08:52.440 issues that we've been dealing with after a decade of of liberal destruction you you nailed it ken i

01:08:59.880 mean i think that's a 45 billion dollar industry which is basically principally a china demand

01:09:07.880 industry for canada it's not like we have multiple markets that's it's a critical industry

01:09:13.320 and we're fighting it on something where we are i think number 19 or 20 in terms of

01:09:18.760 whether canada creates another electric battery or not is almost totally irrelevant

01:09:24.280 and in in the planet and uh and it and that whole thing was propped up with the 50 billion dollars

01:09:30.600 that we didn't spend keeping our nato or norad promises or doing any of the things that would

01:09:34.520 of put us in a much better position with the Americans.

01:09:36.680 But you're putting your finger on something I think

01:09:38.800 really important about this campaign,

01:09:40.740 and it's been a feature of this campaign.

01:09:43.600 The amount of sort of armchair quarterbacking,

01:09:46.000 and I don't mean that in a negative way,

01:09:47.380 I just think a lot of us have been asking,

01:09:50.060 what exactly was the tactical point of stepping back

01:09:55.480 from making certain things critical points in the election?

01:09:58.880 And one of them to me has been,

01:10:01.100 why has China been getting a free pass this entire time? 0.75

01:10:04.420 by both parties why hasn't there been an outright you know you know just an explanation of why we're

01:10:11.300 tariffing certain chinese goods i think we did it in collaboration with the americans why have we

01:10:15.540 left certain tariffs on the americans and why aren't we you know sending an emissary to deal

01:10:20.820 with this canola tariff does it seem to me that it's it's done anything to protect people to your

01:10:25.380 point you know nations real nations don't prosecute their trade and security issues off the back of

01:10:33.060 who happens to form their best favorite voting bloc it's not the way it's supposed to work you

01:10:38.260 know those farmers are supposed to be protected by one government of one nation and i think the

01:10:43.300 sentiment in alberta which is one of the themes for me and maybe uh candace with apologies maybe

01:10:48.660 it's just because i'm out here but i can tell you tonight uh if it's anything like the conversations

01:10:53.060 i've been having and and this is not some fringe group you know that this is in some of the

01:10:59.460 the skyscrapers downtown here people are just saying you know what maybe it's time for divorce

01:11:04.180 seems like they walked away from us a decade ago and they're not walking back so you know i think

01:11:09.480 i think things like what happened with canola and other things have started to test the patience of

01:11:13.860 people to still believe in a federal system if there isn't a real re-architecting of what's going

01:11:19.480 on coming out of however this vote turns out well i think depending on how the night goes uh that

01:11:24.680 might be a conversation that we have to revisit and go much, much deeper on, David. Folks, you'll

01:11:29.600 see at the bottom of our screen, we are already reporting that the Conservatives are winning.

01:11:36.060 The polls closed in Newfoundland at 7 p.m. Eastern time. So that was just 13 minutes ago.

01:11:41.240 And we have the first result that has already come through. So like I said, throughout the night,

01:11:46.000 we are going to be announcing the seats as they come. We're going to introduce you to our decision

01:11:50.520 desk shortly, and we will be bringing you the results as they come in. So the next major poll

01:11:57.160 that closes is in 27 minutes, sorry, 17 minutes, the polls close in the rest of Atlantic Canada.

01:12:05.560 And at that point, we will go to our decision desk who might be able to give us some more

01:12:10.080 answers. And David, just to pick up on one of the things you were saying, you know, why weren't

01:12:14.540 these tariffs from China a bigger issue? I mean, why wasn't Chinese election interference a bigger

01:12:20.260 issue. The fact that some of the things that Mark Kearney got accused of or got stung with

01:12:25.680 during the election campaign, and I don't want to sit here and play like, what about? Because

01:12:30.340 the idea is that we know that the legacy media is so stacked against conservatives that it's not a

01:12:35.960 level playing field whatsoever. So it's hardly even worth sitting here and noticing, complaining

01:12:40.500 over the fact that they don't play it evenly. But if there were reports from CSIS, if there were

01:12:47.600 open, you know, WeChat exposés showing that, for instance, Republicans in the U.S. or the Russians

01:12:56.200 or any foreign government was promoting, interfering to promote the conservative

01:13:00.360 imperialism. We know that that would have been a theme of the entire election. We would have heard

01:13:03.840 from it every single day, every single moment from legacy media. That happened in this election with

01:13:09.580 Mark Kearney and the Chinese. They openly were interfering and promoting him. The legacy media 1.00

01:13:15.580 lied and said that Mark Kearney was being targeted by the Chinese. They were not targeting him in a

01:13:20.720 negative way. They were promoting him in a propagandistic way. And he even had to fire

01:13:25.800 one of his candidates. Well, it didn't fire him. Actually, he quit because Mark Kearney refused to

01:13:29.500 fire him. I'm talking about Paul Chiang in Markham Unionville because of that candidate's close ties

01:13:35.480 with China, because a candidate made a absolutely despicable, un-Canadian comment, saying jokingly

01:13:41.160 or whatever, but saying on a microphone to a roomful of people that they should turn his

01:13:46.760 opponent, his conservative opponent, over to the Chinese consulate and embassy for a bounty,

01:13:52.980 because that candidate had been an outspoken critic of the Chinese government. Chinese

01:13:56.980 government put him on a hit list. All this is to say is that this is an unbelievably big issue in

01:14:02.620 this campaign. I interviewed Sam Cooper, investigative journalist, many times on my

01:14:06.600 show. We'll have him join the broadcast later tonight to talk about this issue. It's really

01:14:11.140 unbelievable that it wasn't featured more heavily in the campaign yeah and candace to your point the

01:14:17.940 gentleman that went on to replace uh uh paul chang if i'm not mistaken um was then someone who had

01:14:25.300 been invited to a military parade in beijing and attended it um if i've got the the person right

01:14:33.060 you know i think canada has a big problem here and the the problem is not that there aren't

01:14:38.980 reasons why foreign adversaries might be playing games with who they target and how they target it

01:14:45.220 the problem is there's a distinct lack of media interest in chasing these things down and getting

01:14:50.340 to the bottom of them for the sake of of canadians having a sense of how reliable their elected

01:14:57.540 representatives are and and whether or not or why they could be bought off by foreign interests what

01:15:03.300 those foreign interests are you know and i think when you when you look at that the two rcp officers

01:15:09.140 that released the report on the nine sitting members of carney's cap current cabinet you

01:15:16.260 just think look that for their sake as much as for the sake of the country that should be dealt with

01:15:21.620 openly by intrepid journalism it can't continue to go on like this where we just sort of ignore

01:15:26.500 it because they're the favorite party of the journalistic class that depends on them for money

01:15:30.740 100%. And I mean, there's so many issues like this is frustrating. But even with Mark Carney

01:15:38.860 and this whole idea, I mean, the entire election narrative was built around this idea that Mark

01:15:42.660 Carney is the one that will stand up to Donald Trump. He is the one that can negotiate on our

01:15:46.060 behalf. It's not a true narrative. It's not based on fact. It's wish casting from the legacy media.

01:15:50.860 And yet, when we learned about what actually happened on Trump and Carney's first phone call,

01:15:56.060 it turns out that the version that was reported in the legacy media, the version

01:15:59.740 told to us by the Liberal Party and by the Prime Minister was a fabrication. And he didn't have

01:16:06.860 Trump's respect. Trump didn't say that he respected Canada's sovereignty, quite the

01:16:10.020 opposite. Trump said that Canada was 51st state, the exact same jab that he made at

01:16:15.480 Justin Trudeau prior. And in that call reportedly now, Mark Carney even said that he believed that

01:16:22.300 Donald Trump was a transformative president and that he looked forward to working for him. In

01:16:26.380 other words, he was kissing the ring, right? This is something that I wrote earlier in the campaign,

01:16:30.920 that one of Mark Carney's probably personal friends, I'm talking about Ian Bremmer, who runs

01:16:36.100 the Eurasia Group. Eurasia Group employs Mark Carney's wife. It employs Gerald Butts, who's

01:16:41.440 an advisor to Mark Carney. It employs one of his star candidates. Anyway, what he said was that

01:16:49.240 after the election, he suspected that the Prime Minister Canter will quietly fold to the Americans,

01:16:53.400 right this entire thing has just been a show that behind the scenes what the americans are being

01:16:59.580 told and what is being communicated in these professional circles is literally that the

01:17:04.500 prime minister of canada is acting tough mark carney is acting tough for the election and as

01:17:08.880 soon as the election ends he will quietly fold to the americans the fact that that wasn't again

01:17:13.420 a feature of this campaign that wasn't spoken about wasn't exposed more more broadly than just

01:17:18.760 here at Juno News and on YouTube, it's really a disservice to the Canadian public. Most Canadians

01:17:24.040 probably have no idea that that happened and that that will happen if Mark Carney is to form a

01:17:28.860 government here. Yeah, the collusion cuts both ways. What happens if that's the case is Mark

01:17:34.980 Carney knows who's buttered his bread. So partway through the campaign, he offered an additional

01:17:38.900 $150 million to the CBC on CBC channels. So you just, you know, when I express these things in

01:17:47.260 in other countries i spend most of my time overseas with some clients the people think that

01:17:53.260 i'm you know maybe a conspiracy theorist they're not sure that that could be true you know uh you

01:18:00.140 just like imagine you're in another imagine you're in a scandinavian country and you say look all of

01:18:06.940 the press that you know is being funded any alternative press is being taxed under the

01:18:12.780 guise of misinformation and the government itself uh works very closely and in the middle of a

01:18:18.700 campaign just made an announcement to offer another nine figures to the principal media platform

01:18:24.940 which they're promising to fund as they fight an election that's being prosecuted over that

01:18:30.540 platform to canadians right and and so i think on a whole host of things mark harney's um

01:18:38.700 you know economic credentials the fact that he kind of played third string for a couple minutes

01:18:43.900 of hockey when he was in college and then sees a hockey player you know these these kinds of things

01:18:49.260 are just the sorts of things that if a conservative tried it wouldn't even wouldn't wouldn't make it

01:18:54.380 to the uh you know that the press would call it out instantly and justifiably in many cases if

01:19:00.380 somebody's playing games he got caught but i think that that this fundamental problem of what's

01:19:06.860 happening with media and free speech is at the heart of of uh carne's campaign one of the things

01:19:13.580 to keep in mind is he's the one that wrote the the very ugly and i think deeply crass and totally

01:19:20.860 intentionally uh misaligned use of the word sedition when he talked about freezing bank

01:19:28.220 accounts finding foreign funding etc he was the dog whistle to christia freeland and the total

01:19:35.180 violation of the constitution of canada total violation of civil rights all that's been found

01:19:40.540 to have been a total violation of the constitution by by our federal courts thankfully one of the few

01:19:45.500 cases where you know the judicial lean towards progressive left didn't take place and yet he's

01:19:50.700 got a free pass from this from the pro from the press i just want to jump in on that david because

01:19:56.060 he gets he gets a free press on so many things right he's come in in the minds of many canadians

01:20:01.100 fair Canadians who might not pay close attention to politics, the way he's being portrayed is a

01:20:05.580 middle-of-the-road, competent, centrist banker. But the reality about Mark Carney is that he has

01:20:12.260 adopted many of the most hard-left radical positions when it comes to the environment,

01:20:17.740 when it comes to woke gender ideology, even this, what you're talking about, supporting

01:20:23.180 the Emergencies Act and being as extreme as you could possibly get when it comes to COVID

01:20:28.640 mandates and covid lockdowns right so just imagine a world where a conservative person who you know

01:20:36.000 is a successful bureaucrat or business person uh steps steps into politics and basically tells you

01:20:42.480 to ignore all of my positions for the past decade ignore all the extreme radical positions that i've

01:20:48.160 taken imagine if it was on the right um and just accept me as a centrist banker and the media go

01:20:52.480 okay that's fair we won't ask any questions about your radical climate plan we won't ask any

01:20:57.920 questions about your gender ideology and your belief when it comes to the idea that boys can

01:21:02.520 be girls and girls can be boys. And we'll just accept you at face value and go ahead. And I

01:21:07.900 mean, it's just such an absolute slap in the face of Canadians, a total abdication of their 1.00

01:21:13.340 responsibility as journalists. Sorry, I interrupted you. You can continue. No, not at all. I mean,

01:21:18.120 you're putting your finger on, I think, what is the critical issue of this campaign, which is the

01:21:22.720 corporate rebranding of the Liberal Party under somebody that's actually an extreme progressive

01:21:27.440 but wears a suit and happens to have been a technocrat banker and that that you know the

01:21:35.640 first step of course was to try and rebrand this around being a crisis instead of having to respond

01:21:40.620 to the problem of the last 10 years of misrule under this government the second part of the

01:21:46.440 rebrand was to take the most popular conservative policies eliminate the proposed capital gains tax

01:21:53.740 increase eliminate the carbon tax talk and act like conservatives on all of the mainstream policies

01:21:59.660 that had strong you know broad-based uh support across the country and then uh ensure that you

01:22:06.220 could dress up or just run from the things that were obvious uh misalignments with the with the

01:22:12.380 populational arts the industrial tax is being framed in a way that will try and keep the

01:22:17.660 population from knowing what they're talking about so is this bizarre idea which doesn't

01:22:22.620 hold water economically at all you can separate fixed operating costs and call them investments

01:22:28.940 and then use that to run up a planned 250 billion dollar additional deficit on top of the already

01:22:36.940 1.5 trillion dollar debt it will mean that the next generation is carrying we're already carrying 62

01:22:42.780 billion a year in uh debt funding debt servicing which is more than we have for federal health

01:22:48.460 transfers of the military and Mark Carney has been at the heart of this print money tax people

01:22:54.380 and spend it uh tied to climate alarmism it's the worst possible cocktail that you can put into a

01:22:59.900 modern economy it's it's crushed the UK and to the extent that the liberals have been following his

01:23:05.660 advice the last five years directly and before that indirectly it's crushed Canada and it's

01:23:11.660 reduced us to the worst in the OECD and the worst in the G7 on on almost every factor but certainly

01:23:17.740 in terms of the GDP, which is our ability to actually pay for our government and to pay off

01:23:23.140 the debt that our government's run out for the last 10 years. It's really, really unbelievable.

01:23:28.080 Well, folks, thank you so much for tuning in. I'm really pleased to announce we almost have 15,000

01:23:32.440 live viewers across all platforms. So we're well on our way to replacing the CDC. If you could just

01:23:37.640 do me a quick favor, go ahead and like this video. It really helps with the algorithm, both on X

01:23:41.760 on YouTube and we're streaming over at Rumble as well. So just give us a like, it takes a second

01:23:46.360 and help us get this stream bigger than the CBCs.

01:23:50.700 That is our only goal.

01:23:51.700 That is if-

01:23:52.540 It's crazy how effective likes and comments are

01:23:56.280 at overwhelming the algorithm.

01:23:58.600 And the CBC, they often turn their comments off.

01:24:01.220 If it gets too rowdy, we're not gonna be doing that.

01:24:03.980 But if you wanna see some rowdy comments,

01:24:05.820 I do recommend people do scan that code in the bottom left

01:24:09.240 to join our private chat room.

01:24:11.360 It's not being moderated by YouTube or even X.

01:24:15.480 It is just straight to business.

01:24:18.860 We're discussing things live with the decision desk there where we're just sort of having backroom conversations about what's going on.

01:24:25.240 One of them, for example, I just want to point out, and hopefully I'm not running over time here, Candace.

01:24:29.620 I just want to talk a little bit about the first riding that we're hoping to look at and get results from tonight.

01:24:37.480 It will be sort of a bellwether riding to explain to us and viewers and Canadians

01:24:43.620 if the Conservative Party is having a good night tonight or if they're having a bad night tonight.

01:24:48.220 And it's going to be St. John Kennebacchus, I believe is the way to pronounce it.

01:24:53.240 It's a riding in New Brunswick.

01:24:56.040 We expect that the Conservatives have a chance of holding the Liberals to a minority

01:25:00.500 if they do pretty well there.

01:25:02.560 The Conservatives need to get over 40% in that riding.

01:25:05.760 If they get over 44%, then it will be an exceptional night for Pierre Polyev.

01:25:11.000 If they get below 40, well, that's going to be a red flag, literally, that the Liberal Party might be doing better across the country if it is below 40% there.

01:25:21.520 So we're going to be keeping an eye on that.

01:25:23.560 And the polls close in exactly two minutes and 50 seconds.

01:25:27.660 So once those results start rolling in, we are going to be feeding you guys that information live, both in the chat room there on the bottom left and, of course, on screen.

01:25:37.460 You can already see the Liberals have taken a bit of a lead in Newfoundland in the polls that have closed there.

01:25:42.960 As votes are being tabulated, we're going to start declaring ridings.

01:25:46.620 That's what our decision desk is going to be doing.

01:25:49.540 And once they do start declaring ridings, you'll see in the right-hand side of the screen

01:25:54.960 a candidate slider, we're calling it, where candidates who have been either defeated

01:26:00.160 or have become victorious will be displayed there on the screen for you

01:26:04.340 so that you, in your own riding, might see your own candidate there.

01:26:07.600 And you'll see whether or not your riding went Conservative, Liberal,

01:26:10.620 or less likely NDP, Bloc, or even Green.

01:26:14.360 I don't think the Greens are going to have a very good night tonight.

01:26:16.480 I think that one of their co-leaders might even lose their seats.

01:26:19.560 But I guess we'll have to see.

01:26:21.100 It's going to be a very long night one way or the other.

01:26:23.800 Well, it's interesting, too, because it's hard for Conservatives to watch the results come in Atlantic Canada because that's not necessarily where the party is strongest.

01:26:32.060 So just keep in mind that the Conservative Party currently holds eight seats in Atlantic Canada.

01:26:36.700 And holding on to those eight seats will be a good night for the Conservatives.

01:26:41.360 And so it is a bit of a guide.

01:26:42.720 we will have our decision desk joining us very shortly.

01:26:47.080 David, I know we only have you for a few more minutes,

01:26:49.140 and we are hoping to have you later on.

01:26:51.040 Yeah, I've got another 25 now.

01:26:53.740 I just got a note from our good friend.

01:26:56.180 Okay, well, great.

01:26:57.140 Well, I was going to ask you for your quick prediction,

01:26:58.800 but I guess we don't need it to be quick.

01:27:00.100 So why don't you tell us what...

01:27:02.300 Well, to be, you know, we can't talk about the state-run media

01:27:07.160 being fast and loose on the facts.

01:27:10.160 so i just looked up the point i was making earlier so one of the writings i think we should watch is

01:27:15.200 markham unionville this is the writing where um the bounty hunter was replaced by the new gentleman

01:27:23.160 whose name is peter ewan let me just let me just give you some facts about peter ewan

01:27:27.400 so peter ewan is a former police officer he joined the board of something called the noic academy

01:27:32.960 which the canadian secret intelligence service flagged as an important part of the foreign

01:27:38.680 interference uh inquiry um he has also been a member of the the chinese confederation

01:27:46.680 of canadian organizations in toronto 2017 that's considered a prominent chinese influence operation

01:27:54.040 it's a member of the jenksu commerce council of canada again directly affiliated with chinese

01:27:59.800 communist party he's he's uh he attended this is this is the one that's sort of the most obvious

01:28:05.880 one the one that i knew about from friends in hong kong in 2015 yun attended a military parade in

01:28:11.160 beijing at the invitation of united front linked office which is a tactic by beijing to cultivate

01:28:16.600 ties with i think chinese leaders abroad now i lived in hong kong for about 15 years what i can

01:28:22.040 tell you is it is impossible to go anywhere near a military parade in beijing unless you're favored

01:28:28.040 by by the state the fact that mark carney at the end of a such a scandal where his candidate had

01:28:34.440 had to step down because Mark Carney wouldn't fire him

01:28:37.080 for his overt playing up to the CCP inside Canada

01:28:41.660 by referring somebody to secret police and a bounty,

01:28:44.920 both of which exist against dissidents in this country.

01:28:48.740 To replace somebody that horrible with this guy

01:28:52.520 is just a smack in the face of democracy and it's-

01:28:56.380 Okay, David, sorry to cut you off.

01:28:57.760 I just have to make a quick announcement

01:28:59.740 and then I have a very special guest

01:29:01.140 and I will get back to David and Kian in just a moment.

01:29:04.180 So hold that thought, please, David.

01:29:05.340 So the polls are now closed in Atlantic Canada.

01:29:08.300 So upon my next interview, we're going to go to our decision desk and hear more about what that means for the election.

01:29:14.680 But first, I'm very pleased to be joined by our second guest of the evening.

01:29:18.100 Very, very special guest here on the program.

01:29:20.780 And I'm talking about Anna Polyev.

01:29:23.200 Anna, welcome to the Juno News election night.

01:29:26.080 Thank you for having me.

01:29:27.080 It's a pleasure to be here with you.

01:29:28.540 It's great to see you.

01:29:29.360 So how are you feeling right now?

01:29:31.080 I'm feeling very good.

01:29:32.220 I think that my husband and the entire Conservative Party of Canada ran a very good campaign and I feel very good about it.

01:29:39.760 So I'm just wondering, when you first met Pierre, when you went on your first date, did you ever think that you would be here on an election night in the situation that you're in right now?

01:29:49.680 Yes and no.

01:29:51.440 No, because it's not definitely not just with Pierre, but with me.

01:29:55.800 My background is, you know, Pierre and I, we come from very humble beginnings.

01:29:58.840 So everything feels surreal.

01:30:00.720 At the same time, I would say yes, because I've always believed in the potential of Pierre.

01:30:05.440 So in that sense, I'm not so surprised, so it's good to be here.

01:30:09.380 Well, it's funny because there was a feature in a magazine from like 25 years ago when

01:30:14.420 he was a 20-year-old young man talking about what he would do if he was prime minister.

01:30:17.780 So I guess he was one of those people that wanted to be prime minister from a very young

01:30:22.300 age.

01:30:23.300 So why don't you just tell us about your day?

01:30:25.420 What have you done so far?

01:30:26.420 I presume you voted today or did you vote in the advanced polls?

01:30:29.420 We voted today.

01:30:30.420 So this morning, well, first of all, we got home last night very late.

01:30:33.460 So this morning, we woke up very eager to see the children for the first time in about two to three weeks.

01:30:39.980 So we spent time with the kids before they headed to school.

01:30:42.520 And then we went to vote.

01:30:44.620 And after that, we just went to see our team in the war room to, you know, thank them for the hard work.

01:30:51.180 And then it's been rather a quiet day after that.

01:30:54.080 It's like the eye of the storm, you know, where it's quiet.

01:30:56.700 There's nothing much for us to do.

01:30:58.260 It felt a bit weird.

01:31:00.100 but we're in a hotel room and we're going to be with our children, Pierre and I, just the four

01:31:04.340 of us quietly awaiting to see what Canadians are going to choose for this election.

01:31:10.740 Well, what a tremendous campaign and what an experience to get to travel around the country,

01:31:15.220 see every part with your husband in this role and with your children too. I have to say, Anna,

01:31:19.700 it's brought me a lot of joy to see your children on the campaign trail and I caught an interview

01:31:25.380 that you and Pierre did, where I think your son would see the people lining up to the rallies and

01:31:31.620 say, oh, those are daddy's friends. Isn't it wonderful to have children to sort of like take

01:31:36.900 you away from the stress of politics? Because you spend time with them, you see the world through

01:31:41.780 their eyes. And it's a great way to sort of break up the stress of politics. How's it felt to have

01:31:47.380 them around? Absolutely. I think it was a very natural decision for us to keep the family

01:31:53.380 together as much as we could it's something uh it's also a value that i want to pass on to the

01:31:58.260 children that we're a tight family and whatever one of the family members chooses to do we tackle

01:32:04.100 it uh as a team and so that's been really wonderful to do and uh you know they're very young so i i

01:32:11.140 don't know as you know our daughter valentina she has special needs uh so she's non-verbal 0.87

01:32:16.500 um so we don't really know what she's taking in um and cruz is three years old but we believe that

01:32:22.420 you know one day they they will remember they will talk about this experience and we're going

01:32:26.340 to be very glad that we decided to bring them on board with us well it's just it's just such a nice

01:32:31.460 relief like you know even for me and you know my life is is one tenth uh as as demanding as yours

01:32:37.060 you know sometimes you have a hard day or a busy day and you just you go spend time with the kids

01:32:41.460 and it's like you know all the stuff all the politics everything that might be happening

01:32:45.220 online just kind of disappears and there's such joy in in being around children so it was really

01:32:49.700 nice uh to see them always put things into perspective you know when whatever you hear

01:32:54.420 like do you tune off the noise right away because it put things into perspective that what truly

01:32:58.420 really matters is our family and you know the future of of our children which is our purpose

01:33:04.260 and why we do this as well for everybody else's children to as well well exactly i think so many

01:33:09.540 people were casting their ballots today thinking about the future thinking about young canadians

01:33:14.580 and it's so interesting to see you know i think my whole life in politics there's been like an

01:33:18.820 adage that if you're if you're conservative when you're 20 you don't have a heart right if you're

01:33:22.900 not a conservative by the time you're 40 you don't have a brain and yeah in this election it seems

01:33:27.060 that older canadians are the ones you know that are that are voting or at least if you believe in

01:33:33.380 the polls uh might be leaning more towards you know doubling down on the last nine years and

01:33:38.740 it's conservatives uh younger the younger generation the under 34 um votes so tell me a

01:33:45.060 little bit about how you think the conservative party and peer poly have been able to capture

01:33:50.020 that younger that younger crowd that younger vote in this election i think it sums up to the word

01:33:55.540 hope my husband has restored hope we have an economy that has been weakened and if you don't

01:34:02.980 already own assets that inflated uh through inflation then you're really really starting

01:34:08.420 behind and so that's what happened with our youth our youth don't own homes they're dreaming of

01:34:13.780 owning a house and so they're starting uh life really really way far behind compared to our

01:34:20.500 parents and pierre is restoring that hope uh but you know it goes beyond the economy it goes with

01:34:26.980 crime as well um you know i think that this generation children they can't play outside like 0.95

01:34:33.540 the way we used to i don't know about you candace but i remember at the time that we had no cell

01:34:38.420 phones no nothing we could play outside go to the park and just tell mom and dad we'll be back at

01:34:42.980 5 p.m. right on time for dinner and our parents didn't have to worry about that I don't think

01:34:47.780 that parents today can do that and so we see that big gap you see that our youth and young parents

01:34:54.900 they're thinking about that a lot and my husband has restored a lot of hope well he's one of the

01:35:01.060 only ones that is willing to talk about these issues is brave enough to talk about them I mean

01:35:04.820 I have to tell you Anna everywhere I go people are talking about carjackings and home invasions

01:35:10.740 those are things that i never would imagine would happen in canada you know those are the kind of

01:35:15.060 things that i imagine might happen in south america or like south africa or something like that the

01:35:19.940 fact that that has become like normal shockingly normal in around toronto is just so outrageous

01:35:26.340 the fact that that wasn't the number one campaign issue is still you know unbelievable to me um but

01:35:33.380 it was fantastic that pierre was the one that was talking about and early too he's been talking about

01:35:38.260 this issue um for a very long time i mean how do you feel about the rising crime levels in canada

01:35:45.060 well you're absolutely right this is something that you would see in south america i was born

01:35:48.740 in caracas venezuela and i remember growing up my mother will take the four of us kids and she

01:35:54.980 will always tell us to hold tight to her her little belt so that she can feel that all four 0.96

01:36:00.340 kids are holding on to her because you know children could be taken away and that level

01:36:04.820 of crimes so one of the reasons why my family was looking for better opportunities and came here to

01:36:10.580 canada was because of the safety how safe canada used to be and now we're in a situation where

01:36:16.820 we don't really recognize the country my father and my stepmother they own a pharmacy in in

01:36:22.340 tronto and they have a video of four men with masks pulling into their driveway and they were

01:36:29.620 coming to do god knows what and it's so sad but my dad had already prepared for that where he had a

01:36:36.500 system where my stepmother can automatically lock that door so you can just imagine the fear that 1.00

01:36:44.040 my family lives under and all of canadian families are living under and it's just so ironic because 0.99

01:36:49.840 one of the reasons why my family left south america caracas venezuela was because of that reason and

01:36:55.500 And so it's unfortunately, you're right, Pierre is the only one who's been talking about these

01:36:59.940 issues. I think other parties have been trying to distract because they know that Pierre is the one

01:37:06.400 who's been connecting with the real issues. He's been traveling for three years. So there's hope

01:37:11.740 because we can bring safety back by changing our laws and giving all the tools that the police

01:37:17.900 force needs. And as you know, Candice, the police associations have endorsed Pierre and there's

01:37:23.460 a reason why. Absolutely. I just want to ask you a question about during the debate, each candidate

01:37:29.460 was asked what their sort of regret of the campaign was. And Pierre probably almost got

01:37:34.320 teary when he was talking about how he regrets that he can't spend more time on the ground with

01:37:39.860 individual Canadians. And it seems to me that this is like one of the things that really helps him

01:37:45.640 as a leader, because he, and like you said, for three years, he travels and he talks to people,

01:37:51.820 actually listens he hears about the things you know that i hear about when i go out that you

01:37:55.580 you hear about with your friends but i mean imagine hearing about it from tens of millions

01:37:59.260 of canadians all the time and being one of the first people to really understand um those issues

01:38:04.540 and so i'm wondering like you know you've traveled with him and you've gone on these

01:38:08.780 campaigns i know it's hard for him to be able to leave but like what you know what what is it like

01:38:14.060 to go to a rally with him well i was with him every single day of this campaign and you're

01:38:20.060 absolutely right when you say that my husband listens actually uh whenever i go on my little

01:38:24.780 solo tours and and i give a speech and i talk about my husband i'd like to tell people that

01:38:31.260 you know everybody knows pure polyev as a very good articulate man very good debater good

01:38:35.740 communicator but actually his best and strongest quality is that he listens and so he has a good

01:38:42.940 pulse on what's happening on the ground and he loves loves people and it shows because he stays

01:38:49.980 after like for hours after uh rallies so that he can hear the people listen from there directly

01:38:56.140 and that's how he knows what's happening on the ground and that has uh really created a strong

01:39:02.140 movement of people that feel that have been left behind that their voices have not been

01:39:06.940 represented in ottawa so peers bringing their voices to ottawa rather than the other way around

01:39:13.340 and you're right um i mean i can't even describe the rallies uh i don't know if you've had the

01:39:19.020 chance to come to one of those but the last uh rally that we had was uh last night in pierre's

01:39:25.340 writing and i got very emotional because this has been a three-year culmination for us and to think

01:39:32.780 that it was our last rally and being with all the people they shared their stories their pains their

01:39:39.580 struggles and we're doing it for them and it's an honor it's an honor for us what an incredible

01:39:47.100 service you provided to, you know, your new adopted country and to be on this journey with

01:39:53.260 Pierre. Well, you know, our thoughts and our prayers are with you, your family, and we're

01:39:57.780 really just hoping that tonight goes well. Is there anything specific that you're going to be

01:40:02.220 watching out for tonight? I'm just going to be thinking of the people. I'm going to be thinking

01:40:07.880 of the people that hugged us and with tears on their face, shared their stories, and we're doing

01:40:15.820 it for them and no matter what happens we're standing strong and we're going to continue

01:40:19.760 fighting for all of them absolutely wonderful well anna polio thank you so much for your time

01:40:24.500 thank you for joining us at juniors we really appreciate we'll be respectful of your time so

01:40:27.820 we'll say good night but wishing you all the best tonight well thank you for having me good night

01:40:31.820 all right thank you so much wow what an interesting uh discussion well uh kian david uh you've got

01:40:39.000 you back on so uh what did you think of the interview with anna there it was fantastic and

01:40:43.260 so generous of her to lend her time to Juno. I mean, I think it speaks to the fact that Juno is

01:40:49.500 really the fastest growing news outlet in this country. I think that we've had a huge impact in

01:40:56.040 this campaign and part of having a huge impact in the campaign in terms of turning the dial and

01:41:00.800 shedding a light on the stories that the mainstream media tries to brush under a rug,

01:41:05.300 you build an audience really, really quickly. And as a result, people like Pierre, you know,

01:41:10.240 one of our first interviews was with Pierre himself. And now this this interview with Anna,

01:41:14.980 I think you did great. Seeing the other side of the personal side of these politicians is really

01:41:20.540 an interesting thing, I think, to the viewers to understand what it is to be a politician in the

01:41:26.820 highest offices in this country. What does it do to you? What does it do to your marriage? What does

01:41:31.380 it do to your family? How do you change throughout the campaign when you speak to so many people

01:41:36.080 And you become a lightning rod for their issues.

01:41:39.100 You know, some people criticize politicians for crying on the campaign trail, but I've

01:41:43.060 been on a few campaign trails now and you see these candidates, they take in so much

01:41:48.460 from people who are struggling and they're dealing with some of the most painful things

01:41:53.840 you could ever imagine in your life.

01:41:55.200 And the people they look to to solve those problems are people like Pierre.

01:41:58.840 They were people like Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney.

01:42:01.500 So all, you know, these politicians, whether they're liberals or conservatives, they take in a lot and it changes a person going through these campaigns, going to these rallies that are so huge.

01:42:10.860 It's like it's like going to a rock concert where people are putting not just a fun night into your hands.

01:42:16.500 They're putting their hopes and dreams for a better future for themselves, for their aging parents and for their children.

01:42:22.660 It really is a crazy thing to be a politician in this country.

01:42:26.560 And, you know, some people don't have a lot of sympathy for them. But when you see interviews like that, I think that it's pretty clear that they are in this for the right reasons. And it gives me a little bit of hope because, you know, some politicians aren't in it for the right reasons. They haven't been quite on the campaign trail in the same way that Pierre and his wife have been.

01:42:45.220 I've been impressed that she's followed him across this campaign almost 100% of the time.

01:42:50.100 That is a very rare thing.

01:42:51.320 Even Donald Trump's wife doesn't do that. 1.00

01:42:53.700 Mark Carney's wife certainly hasn't.

01:42:55.260 And Justin Trudeau's wife obviously didn't either.

01:42:58.000 So it's an interesting thing.

01:42:59.420 And I think that Canadians are going to see that.

01:43:01.480 And I think they're impressed by it.

01:43:02.780 No, they're quite the power couple.

01:43:04.280 And you can tell that they really rely on each other for that emotional support.

01:43:08.120 I mean, politics can be a very draining, challenging sport or profession.

01:43:14.040 And, you know, you live it. It's your career, but it's your life and it's who you are. And I think Pierre Polyev is very lucky to have a woman like Anna Polyev by her side. What do you think, David?

01:43:23.880 Yeah, look, I think one of the things that's noticeable, I was, you know, I actually hosted Pierre and Anna in Hong Kong back in the day. And, you know, I think they're just genuine, genuine. They love people. It's very genuine.

01:43:38.240 When you run a campaign, things have to be scripted.

01:43:41.860 They're very tight.

01:43:42.800 You run things by sort of half minutes.

01:43:45.780 And Kian's seen this up close.

01:43:48.420 And I have.

01:43:49.500 And I think one of the things that's hard to do is just maintain that kind of level of connection and empathy and intention.

01:43:57.040 And he's carried it.

01:43:59.020 And it's incredibly grueling.

01:44:01.200 one of the things that people don't understand is the sleep deprivation that that couple is under

01:44:06.840 right now is probably extraordinary because you can't it's not just that your your pacing of your

01:44:12.300 campaign is that intense it's that every 15 minutes some candidate somewhere says the wrong

01:44:17.580 thing and it becomes a crisis of the moment that requires the leader to weigh in on it and then the

01:44:22.340 next morning at you know 5 30 in the morning somebody who's supposed to have something done

01:44:27.740 didn't get it done the plane didn't the plane needs to be fixed you're going to miss that thing

01:44:31.580 and there's no way to get a bus out there it's constant and i think they're probably just at the

01:44:36.300 in uh they're probably almost hallucinating they're so tired but surrounded by people who love

01:44:40.460 them and they've they've left nothing on the field i think they can be very proud of the campaign

01:44:45.740 that they ran i think there's going to be a lot of um you know this campaign in particular has

01:44:50.940 already had some litigation of the strategy and tactics and i think that's an incredibly hard thing

01:44:57.740 uh for a campaign i was i was very sympathetic to what was going on when you had that debate

01:45:03.340 between the um you know the the team uh team conservative in ontario and uh team conservative

01:45:11.320 federally and that's been a feature of this campaign is something we're gonna have to talk

01:45:15.200 about yeah i i would love to hash that out right now actually as someone someone like you who knows

01:45:20.200 this business really well um what what do you make of it when you see internal conservative

01:45:26.080 party factions, or maybe I shouldn't say conservative party because Corey Tanike,

01:45:30.440 for example, is not a member of the conservative campaign, but he is ostensibly a conservative

01:45:35.300 in Canada. What do you make of it when these factions within the same party clash like this

01:45:40.660 so publicly at such a crucial moment? Unfortunately, I mean, Ken, you know Alberta

01:45:47.820 politics. I came back to work on Jason's campaign and we won a historic landslide and had an

01:45:55.020 incredibly united you know recently united conservative party ucp uh but it wasn't united

01:46:01.560 for long and i think it's i think it's in the nature of the conservative movement that people

01:46:06.740 are very factional uh they think they know best they're independent minded and that there's

01:46:12.240 something about that dna that's actually good and it forces a constant renewal and and and a

01:46:17.380 constant reckoning and an accountability and there were things we certainly needed to be accountable

01:46:20.980 before um and no one's you know wilting violet there but there's a point and i think what you're

01:46:28.980 seeing happen right now unfortunately is that we do our laundry in public but we don't do it in a

01:46:34.140 constructive way it's not put out there in a sense of like look we've got your back but we sure wish

01:46:39.120 you were building better bridges with the local teams in terms of data running the campaign better

01:46:44.080 in our space it was sort of being prosecuted i think with a lot of history in the air that's

01:46:50.700 probably not worth going through on the air here but you know the history between the campaign

01:46:54.300 managers and i think some of the um background and i think mistakes have been made and prices

01:47:00.520 get paid for mistakes that get made you have to be a realist and you have to be a little bit

01:47:04.140 machiavellian uh when you're gonna win but i do think that as a party we've got to get a better

01:47:10.500 grip on what our overall tactics and strategy should be because the strong enduring sense across

01:47:16.100 i think the spectrum of the players involved is that we should have won this clearly and cleanly

01:47:22.260 it shouldn't be close in the way that it's close and well sorry david just to jump in here it's so

01:47:28.100 unforgivable when when i see uh concert potential conservative candidates that would replace like

01:47:33.620 the pre-positioning that's come on by some public service it's just so inappropriate and to me it's

01:47:39.220 like such a such a unforgivable sin to do during an election campaign like i still believe that

01:47:45.460 Pierre Polyev has a very good chance of becoming prime minister tonight and the fact that there

01:47:49.780 are some campaigns and some politicians that are already pre-positioning to try to elbow their way

01:47:54.740 in to lead this party is gross and i i'm glad you're calling them out on it it needs to stop

01:48:00.260 and you know let's let's let's all be in together and we can we can do a post-mortem after the

01:48:05.460 election talk about what went right what went wrong but you don't do that during an election

01:48:09.540 right folks we have been talking about this uh since the broadcast began but i'm very pleased

01:48:13.540 I want to introduce you to our decision desk host, Matt John. So Matt, he's the executive

01:48:22.900 at Crestview, which is a public relations firm in Ontario, and he is going to be the one breaking

01:48:28.500 down all the numbers for us. So as you can see in the bottom of our screen, we do have some results

01:48:33.620 coming in already. They're slowly trickling in. The polls close in Newfoundland at 7 p.m. Eastern

01:48:39.540 time, 5 p.m. Mountain Time. 7.30, the polls close in the rest of Atlantic Canada. That's 5.30 p.m.

01:48:46.420 in Alberta, 4.30 p.m. in British Columbia. And so we are starting to see results trickle in. Like I

01:48:52.540 mentioned earlier, the Conservatives only held eight seats going into this election. So yes,

01:48:58.140 the early numbers coming in will always look a little disappointing for the Conservatives. But

01:49:03.860 But just so that no, you know, conservatives aren't expected to do any kind of a blowout in Atlantic Canada.

01:49:12.180 I will just note, Candace, while we're bringing him in, that the conservatives are leading right now in four ridings.

01:49:19.820 One of them is just one poll reporting, so it's not really not even worth mentioning.

01:49:24.460 But of the ridings that have currently, the non-incumbent is leading, two of those ridings are being taken by the conservatives.

01:49:33.020 which means Anthony Germain right now is being upset by 300 votes. That's almost 7%. That's in

01:49:40.040 Terranova. And then again, in Long Range Mountains, Don Bradshaw is being beat right now. He's the

01:49:49.320 incumbent, liberal incumbent, is being beat by over 1,000 votes right now, which is 20% with 45

01:49:55.900 out of 250 polls reporting. That's actually crazy right now that we're seeing. The liberals are,

01:50:02.100 you know, the Conservatives not currently lost any of the seats that they held, but Liberals have

01:50:06.520 lost two seats already. They're not being called, but they are trailing in seats that they are the

01:50:12.180 incumbent in. And actually, more polls just came in in Bradshaw's riding, and he's now trailing

01:50:18.000 even further. So, so far, it's looking good without speaking too early. Well, you know,

01:50:25.620 you don't want to jump ahead of yourselves too much with, again, Atlantic Canada, not high

01:50:30.180 expectations necessarily but really interesting context and we are going to be going to our

01:50:35.780 decision desk and matt john who's going to be he's our numbers guy i'm actually so impressed by this

01:50:41.620 so some of one of the things that we did here at juno news is first of all we created there's matt

01:50:46.740 john hi matt welcome to the show thank you so much for joining us hi candace good to be with you okay

01:50:52.580 so tell us about juno news's decision desk i'm so excited about this new announcement that we're

01:50:56.660 making. Yeah, it's really exciting. I think as the folks who've been following in the chat would

01:51:02.400 note, we posted some updates on the model that Juno has developed. And I would note that that

01:51:09.780 model should give us a good indication of where things are headed tonight. If you looked at,

01:51:14.380 if you took our model and put the Juno polling into it, you would see that would give us a seat

01:51:19.600 count of about the CPC, a seat count of about 150 and the Liberals about 165. Your listeners

01:51:27.520 would probably know that that's a pretty different seat count than what some of the publicly

01:51:30.900 available polls and seat counts are showing, where they're showing more like 180 seats

01:51:36.120 for the Liberals and the CPC closer to 130. So the difference between that R model and polling

01:51:43.400 and the publicly available polling is a good indication overall of where things are headed.

01:51:48.900 I would also just say, as you guys have noted in Nova Scotia, sorry, in Newfoundland, early results are actually really encouraging for the conservatives. There's probably at the most three writings there that I would call accessible to the Conservative Party. One that they already hold, which would be a must hold. That's the one in central Newfoundland where currently Clifford Small is leading by almost 1,700 votes or with 65% of the vote.

01:52:15.740 a note that's only with 21% of the polls reporting. And I would also just, this is going to be

01:52:21.920 something I'll probably say a lot tonight, but with the number of advanced votes that are out

01:52:26.380 there, you have to kind of wait until some of those come in before you can really have an idea

01:52:32.340 of what's going on. So just to give you a note in central Newfoundland, that's a writing that had

01:52:36.700 over 8,000 people vote in the advanced polls. And you'll note right now only 5,300 votes have been

01:52:42.460 counted there. So that, until we see that advance vote come in, it'll be difficult to

01:52:48.720 really know what's going on, but very encouraging results for the Conservatives early on in that

01:52:53.740 riding. Can you tell us of the ridings that we're about to start seeing results in,

01:52:59.180 which ones do you have your eyes on the most? So I would say Nova Scotia, I'm going to look at

01:53:05.760 the Conservatives holding those ridings. So I think you noted there is one Conservative lead.

01:53:09.540 I think that's in the Rick Perkins writing. That's going to be an interesting one, because there actually isn't an NDP candidate in that writing. And so the fear of, you know, the NDP vote consolidating with the Liberals to oust a Conservative could be realized there.

01:53:24.480 And then the next one I'd look at is, I think, can you mention this already on the broadcast, but St. John Canabasis in New Brunswick.

01:53:32.700 That's a riding that if the Conservatives are having a good night or even a night where they're on track to hold the Liberals to a minority,

01:53:40.500 that's a riding that you might see the Conservatives do well in potentially and win it.

01:53:45.720 So that's what I'll be looking at early as we see these results coming in from the Atlantics.

01:53:50.480 And so, Matt, can you tell us in your model, how many seats do you have the Conservatives winning in all of Atlantic Canada?

01:53:58.320 In Atlantic Canada, we would have, sorry, I'm just going to pull it up.

01:54:02.380 I'm looking over to my left here at my other screen, so just so I can get a good look at that.

01:54:07.580 So in Atlantic Canada, we would have the Conservatives winning the eight that they currently hold, and then potentially another three or four beyond that.

01:54:17.460 So that would be, I think you guys mentioned already a couple of those ridings in rural Newfoundland, St. John Canabasas that you already noted.

01:54:25.680 Those would be the ones that we would see the conservatives picking up if they're on track for a minority, holding the liberals to a minority this tonight.

01:54:34.320 And maybe you can fill me in on this. How does the advanced polls, when are they calculated? When are they added in?

01:54:39.640 Like, why wouldn't they be the first votes that are counted? Why do they hold them to the end?

01:54:44.040 That's a really, really good question. I think you saw some news reports recently of

01:54:51.220 Elections Canada starting to count advance votes early. There has been certainly a tradition here

01:54:57.720 that you wouldn't start counting any votes until the polls close for obvious reasons.

01:55:01.600 I think with the volume of advance vote that we now see from 2019 to 2021 to today,

01:55:07.700 You're going to have to see more and more the Elections Canada starting the vote count on

01:55:13.520 advanced votes early so that they're ready to release them closer to when the rest of those

01:55:19.680 votes are getting counted. You're going to see a challenge. If they're not able to pull that off,

01:55:24.740 you are going to see some ridings that will look, they're trending one way as the election day vote

01:55:29.080 comes in and then a huge amount of votes come in and potentially swing that riding.

01:55:34.060 and do we have any indicator whether i know there was i think there was an angus reed poll that

01:55:38.220 showed that the advanced polls were going very heavily liberal which i have a hard time believing

01:55:42.780 that because if you're still motivated to get out and change the country it's because you want

01:55:46.700 change right and you know my husband and i went in advance uh voted in the advance poll we went

01:55:51.580 super early like the poll we were literally the first people there when the poll opened so we

01:55:54.780 didn't really get a good impression of who else was there but i have heard like anecdotally that

01:56:00.220 people who did go to advanced polls, it seemed to them that the people around them, the people

01:56:05.340 that were voting, the ones that they spoke to, were in fact voting for change or voting for

01:56:08.620 peer polio. So any indication of which way that is advanced voting may be going?

01:56:14.540 Yeah, I saw that Angus Reid poll. I mean, the problem with polling that is you're going to get

01:56:18.620 a very small sample size and a large margin of error, and it's probably not consistent across

01:56:23.900 the country. I also would, I think general political wisdom would tell you that the more

01:56:29.020 motivated voters are going to show up in the advanced polls and that generally tends to be

01:56:32.620 the voters who are are looking for a change i would only note to temper some enthusiasm around

01:56:37.820 that as potentially being good for the conservatives that a lot of the polling that public polling that

01:56:42.300 i've seen would indicate that there is a chunk of voters who uh i think it's time for a change

01:56:47.340 who are voting liberal uh that's perplexing to a lot of us but uh uh that some of the polls have

01:56:53.180 been showing that and so i think if you were the liberals you'd probably be spinning that those

01:56:56.620 orders are showing up uh in the advanced polls and that's uh gonna have a good night make it a good

01:57:01.260 night for you okay well matt john you are manning our decision desk we're so excited to have you so

01:57:05.740 folks if you head on over to juno news and subscribe or if you scan the qr code on your

01:57:10.940 screen you will be taken to our juno news chat and in there you can ask matt john questions live and

01:57:17.180 he will be responding ask him about your writing ask him about the data we also have an exclusive

01:57:22.700 spreadsheet that matt and his team have created it's really interesting if you are the type

01:57:27.180 that likes pouring through data looking through numbers we have made this available to all of our

01:57:31.820 paid subscribers so all you have to do is go over and get a subscription at juno news you get access

01:57:36.140 to the exact same spreadsheet that kian matt and i have opened in front of us that we're going through

01:57:41.260 to learn about every single writing who who currently holds it we have two different models

01:57:46.060 that we're basing this on so this is really interesting we have our juno polls that we

01:57:49.580 conducted throughout the campaign with one persuasion and then we also use our juno neighbor

01:57:54.540 poll we pioneered the neighbor poll abacus data followed suit and did their own neighbor poll so

01:57:59.100 you can see our different projections and models uh based on those two polling so i encourage you

01:58:03.980 to go over do that matt we will be back uh with you again shortly so thank you so much for joining

01:58:09.340 us and speaking i'll just mention something quickly here i'm looking at the live uh watch

01:58:16.380 numbers for our competition in the mainstream media from the canadian press to cpac to cp24

01:58:25.260 and the canadian press we are currently exceeding all of them for views we have three times as many

01:58:30.540 views right now as the canadian press 10 times as many views live viewers as cpac the legacy media

01:58:37.900 uh is going to have a reckoning after this election is over i think when people realize

01:58:42.700 exactly how they've hoodwinked this country we currently haven't exceeded the cbc but we are

01:58:47.500 almost about to surpass ctv and if we can do that i would consider it a huge win so i just want to

01:58:53.500 remind everyone to make sure to hit the like button it does a huge it plays a huge role in

01:58:59.580 making sure that regular regular everyday canadians who maybe aren't tuned in as much as you are are

01:59:06.540 fed our stream and our news by youtube and by the by the google algorithms and by x as well

01:59:12.700 We want to make sure that they're hearing the honest truth about what is going on in this country and what is going on tonight, because the stakes have never been more high and we cannot trust tonight in the hands of the CBC.

01:59:24.440 So I encourage you to like, leave a comment. If you do that, it'll help us out immensely.

01:59:28.720 And then scan the QR code at the bottom left-hand corner of your screen so that you can join our private chat room, as Candice was mentioning.

01:59:35.040 But Candice, I think we do have a commercial break coming up.

01:59:37.520 Okay. Yes. And we are, we'll be joined after the break by some new guests. So let's hear

01:59:43.680 a quick word from our sponsor. Then we'll be back with more analysis and updates.

01:59:50.400 Tired of plan.

01:59:53.360 Well, so we look maybe about an issue there. So if that is not ready, we can continue to go.

01:59:59.920 And I would say, you know, to the audience, don't, don't just like the video,

02:00:04.620 Send it to some friends, right?

02:00:05.960 If you know that some people in your family, your parents,

02:00:08.120 are sitting at home watching CBC,

02:00:10.160 let them know that that's not your only option.

02:00:11.980 We don't have to be held hostage by the legacy media any longer.

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02:00:26.480 We don't take money from the government,

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02:00:29.960 We tell you the truth how we see it,

02:00:31.840 And it doesn't matter how much money the Liberal Party is offering to the CBC or to the newspapers or even to digital startups, you know, they created this fund, they shook down Google and demanded that Google give them $100 million. And then they started distributing it to media companies, including digital startup companies like Juno News, we will not take that money, we will not take the government's money, we are funded entirely by our viewers.

02:00:57.460 And, you know, interestingly, we launched on Substack and we quickly became, I think, one of the largest, if not the largest Canadian news site on Substack.

02:01:06.360 Hundreds of thousands of people have subscribed.

02:01:08.920 We get millions of page views a month.

02:01:10.500 I think we're over nine million for this month.

02:01:12.500 It's been quite the ride over the last month, seeing the growth that Juno has had.

02:01:19.440 But while you can, so I'll give you some time to talk with our backroom about that commercial break.

02:01:23.880 I want to talk about Terra Nova and the Peninsulas, it's called. It's a riding in Newfoundland, as well as its sister riding, Long Range Mountains. These are two really interesting ridings to me. I don't know if we'll be able to bring it up on the screen or not, but I do want to talk about them.

02:01:39.440 So these form the largest part of the landmass of Newfoundland.

02:01:44.760 And the incumbent in Long Range Mountains, Dan Bradshaw, was a huge Trudeau acolyte.

02:01:50.820 He loved Justin Trudeau and took his marching orders every morning.

02:01:55.540 He was one of the most loyal people in Trudeau's caucus.

02:01:58.340 And he, as a liberal incumbent, is now trailing by more than a thousand votes.

02:02:04.720 So this would be a huge upset for the Conservative Party.

02:02:07.860 The Conservative candidate there is Carol Ainsley.

02:02:12.620 If she wins, that would be a big, big, big win and take home for the Conservative Party. 1.00

02:02:18.580 I'll talk about the other one, Terra Nova, the Peninsulas.

02:02:21.480 That's Jonathan Rowe.

02:02:22.680 He's the Conservative candidate there, and he's fought a long campaign.

02:02:26.280 That riding is a tough riding for Conservatives to win in.

02:02:29.200 Anthony Germain, as many of you who follow the House of Commons in question period,

02:02:34.640 will know Anthony Germain.

02:02:35.920 He is losing not by as huge of a margin, but this incumbent is still losing by 400 votes.

02:02:44.600 So it's tight. It's 5% of the current reported numbers that we're seeing here.

02:02:48.700 78 out of 270 polls are reporting there.

02:02:52.340 So almost a third have come back now, and there is a solid Conservative lead in that riding.

02:02:58.900 And as I mentioned earlier, the Liberals are holding on to most of their seats.

02:03:02.620 The Conservatives have not lost one yet that I've been able to find.

02:03:07.000 Every Liberal win that you see on the screen there, you can see they're currently, oh,

02:03:12.380 we just see one more to the Conservative Party now.

02:03:14.240 But all 16 of those that we're seeing from the Liberal Party have been seats that they

02:03:19.840 were already holding going into this election.

02:03:23.800 Wow, that's super interesting.

02:03:25.240 Okay, Kian, I'm going to bring in some guests here.

02:03:27.240 We are very pleased to be joined by Ashton Arsenault and Deirdre Hinsdale from Crestview.

02:03:33.260 I believe they are standing by, so we would like to welcome them to the broadcast.

02:03:38.640 Hi, thank you so much for joining us.

02:03:40.340 Sorry, I know you were waiting a little bit.

02:03:43.400 So Ashton is a partner at Crestview Government Relations firm based in Ottawa.

02:03:47.580 He's a former political staffer on the Hill and worked in the PEI legislature.

02:03:51.360 So a great person to be talking to as the polls are closing in eastern Canada.

02:03:54.160 and Deirdre is a vice president Crestview based in Quebec. She was previously a senior staffer

02:03:59.620 in the Harper government. So let me go first to you Ashton since you're from Prince Edward Island

02:04:04.540 what are you seeing so far as the results come in and how are you feeling?

02:04:09.120 It's very interesting we were exceptionally hopeful and I will say just because I think

02:04:14.780 I should mention it I have a younger brother that's working on the campaign for the conservative

02:04:19.340 candidate in Natalie Gamison in Charlottetown Center. And, you know, there was a point in time

02:04:25.300 where we thought it was plausible that the Conservative Party could flip up to three seats

02:04:30.100 in Prince Edward Island. That's just a few short months ago. And now it looks like that's going to

02:04:35.240 be a long road to hoe. And I think if there is one seat in play in Prince Edward Island tonight, 1.00

02:04:40.920 it would probably be Cardigan that was formerly held by longtime cabinet minister Lawrence

02:04:46.240 McCauley of the Liberal Party. He's not going to be running again this time around. And so it's

02:04:50.340 sort of a wide open concept with a really, really good candidate for the Conservative Party in James

02:04:55.260 Aylward, somebody that I've had the pleasure of working with previously. So that's the one I'm

02:04:59.900 watching. But to the point that's already been discussed, you know, I am looking for those

02:05:04.260 incremental pickups in Atlantic Canada. If we can pick up three, four, five, even, then I think that

02:05:11.540 tells me that it's not going to be a blowout. Perhaps we can relegate a liberal government to

02:05:17.620 a minority, and who knows, maybe even a surprise or two. Well, what would you say would be the

02:05:23.040 campaign, like the ballot box issue in Atlantic Canada? Did you think it was a similar one that

02:05:28.060 we were hearing in Ontario, or was there something more distinct happening out there?

02:05:32.060 Yeah, definitely a lot of what's happening in Ontario. So quite frankly, you know,

02:05:35.760 the leadership question, and of course, issues south of the border with President Trump.

02:05:41.000 One thing that I'm struck by in Atlantic Canadian politics is, you know, not dissimilar to Quebec.

02:05:46.320 The vote is fickle at times, and the population is aging in Atlantic Canada perhaps faster than you would see in some other areas of the country.

02:05:54.660 And as we've known through public opinion polling, that's, you know, unfortunately skewing towards the Liberal Party of Canada during this election.

02:06:03.340 And so you look at Atlantic Canada, it is a remarkable pivot in a few short months.

02:06:09.280 i mean there was a point in time where the conservative party was up uh you know 17 18

02:06:14.480 even 19 points in atlanta canada which uh look i've been doing this for long enough not as long

02:06:19.680 as others to know that uh you know a 19 point lead for the conservative party of canada in

02:06:24.480 atlanta canada is basically unheard of so and it turns out it might just be candace it turns out it

02:06:32.160 might just be well uh so what do you think uh in terms of the campaign that was run like how

02:06:38.800 How are you feeling about your confidence towards how peer poly around the campaign, how it was wrong, the issues that they focus on the platform that they ran on?

02:06:46.780 Yeah, I thought he's run an exceptionally well-defined campaign.

02:06:52.040 The reality is there are some circumstances that popped up along the way that were more or less out of his control.

02:06:58.380 In terms of his own personal performance, in terms of the performance of the candidates that the party was fortunate enough to nominate, I think they've done an exceedingly good job.

02:07:09.760 Let's see what the results say tonight.

02:07:11.900 Obviously, everybody's trying to avoid a blowout here and, you know, best case scenario, an upset, which I'd love to see the media coverage tomorrow in the event of an upset.

02:07:20.680 I do think there will be a good amount of open questions that need to be asked should be asked coming out of tonight. You know, what if anything could have been done differently? You know, should the messaging have pivoted a little early? Should it have pivoted at all? Should additional resources been sent to certain ridings? I mean, these are serious questions and any serious campaign does appear.

02:07:50.680 .

02:08:20.680 .

02:08:50.680 .

02:09:20.680 .

02:09:50.680 .

02:10:20.680 .

02:10:50.680 .

02:11:20.680 .

02:11:50.680 .

02:12:20.680 .

02:12:50.680 Had an election happened at that time, the NDP actually could have formed the official opposition. So the malpractice of ragging the puck and protecting the Liberal Party of Canada while it was failing and otherwise doomed to fail in the next election is really unforgivable.

02:13:10.320 and quite frankly, Jagmeet Singh is going to pay for it with his job. There is no chance that he

02:13:16.200 is able to retain the leadership post of that party coming out of this evening. First of all,

02:13:21.800 I don't think he's going to win his own seat. Second, I don't know if it's possible at this

02:13:26.360 point they actually get to official party status with 12 seats. Let's see. I think that's one of

02:13:30.460 the stories of the evening. But either way, this is Jagmeet Singh's last night running under the

02:13:36.420 banner of the new Democratic Party. Well, that might be the best thing that happens. Hopefully

02:13:41.280 other good things happen. Hopefully conservatives do better than the polls are suggesting. But

02:13:46.180 I think that Jagmeet Singh getting fired and losing his own seat and potentially losing party status

02:13:51.900 is exactly what he deserves for after what he has put Canadians through for all these years. Well,

02:13:57.920 Ashton Arsenal, I really appreciate your time and your insights. Thank you so much for joining us

02:14:01.260 here at Juno News. Thanks, Candace. Have a good evening. Thanks. Same to you. All right, folks.

02:14:05.380 Well, I think we might've had some technical difficulties, but hopefully we've got all of

02:14:09.020 those ironed out. We still have a lot to get to this evening. And so one of the things that we

02:14:16.420 are doing, there's Kian, Bexie. One of the things that we are offering is a live chat over at

02:14:22.940 Substack. So you can join the chat. You can send us your questions. We're going to be answering

02:14:27.200 some of them live on air. Others will answer in the chat. You can ask questions to Matt John.

02:14:32.200 He's sort of our data nerd for the night. He has all the information at his fingertips. So if you

02:14:37.100 have specific questions about certain riding, what the projections are saying, what the polls

02:14:40.480 are saying, what the numbers look like, just feel free to punch some questions right into that chat

02:14:46.860 and we'll have them answered. Kian, how are things looking over on your end? Yeah, so we are getting

02:14:54.200 some results now uh in pei and in new brunswick uh in st john canabacus which is the riding that

02:15:02.200 i said the conservatives needed to get more than 40 uh 44 in to have a good night uh right now

02:15:10.040 not to uh black pill everyone but the conservatives are oh as i say that the results updated they were

02:15:19.400 We're at 30%. They just spiked up to 36%, which has closed the gap a little bit with only four

02:15:26.860 polls reporting out of 159, which means that if this increases, if this gap continues to shrink,

02:15:35.300 those could have been advanced poll numbers that were coming in there that caused that huge number

02:15:40.500 for the Liberals early on, where they were almost at 70% of the vote. Now that is coming down 10%

02:15:47.000 by 10% as more polls come in. So it could still be a good night for the Conservatives, but right now

02:15:52.820 with a few polls reporting, that bellwether riding, which could determine how the rest of

02:15:59.040 the country plays out, is not looking good for the Conservatives. That is despite the fact that

02:16:03.980 Conservatives, for just the Maritimes reporting, having 12 seats right now and the Liberals with

02:16:10.280 18, it doesn't look too, too bad. But that one riding, which we had honed in on, thinking that

02:16:16.300 it would be a bellwether for the rest of the country is not looking excellent, is my prognosis

02:16:22.600 right now. Well, that is very interesting. And we are going to take a quick break and head over to

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02:19:06.480 hey everyone sorry about those technical issues that we are having this is the first

02:19:17.140 live broadcast that juno news has done on an election night uh it's a big night for the

02:19:21.860 country it's a big night for us as well so i appreciate you guys bearing with us

02:19:24.880 as we do this so i want to go back to the numbers uh because this is really uh the important part

02:19:30.240 of tonight is not what we're saying or who we're talking to but it's what canadian voters are

02:19:34.760 deciding. When they went to the ballot box today, of course, polls are closed across the easternmost

02:19:41.340 provinces in this country. And we're seeing a not too bad turnout for the Conservative Party as it

02:19:47.800 stands right now. Now, some ridings have been called. Certainly some have just been, we're just

02:19:53.620 reporting leads or those that are trailing. But the riding that I want to speak about in particular

02:19:59.920 is the bellwether riding that we have been going back to time and time again.

02:20:05.500 As more polls come in, St. John Kennebacchus is turning out to be exactly what we expected it would be,

02:20:14.020 which is an outlier in the region, but potentially a bellwether for the rest of the country.

02:20:19.660 St. John Kennebacchus is Wayne Long's riding.

02:20:22.760 You probably know Wayne Long if you do watch Question Period.

02:20:26.060 He has been a longtime member of Parliament and he has been a huge supporter of Justin Trudeau.

02:20:31.800 And then Mark Carney, as you know, as Mark Carney has taken the reins here in Ottawa.

02:20:39.640 So Wayne Long is sitting at 3,100 votes and Melissa Young, the challenger, the conservative challenger for that riding, is at 1,900 votes.

02:20:51.420 So she's coming up on 40%. But as we predicted, if that riding does not exceed 40%, if that riding doesn't exceed 40%, it's going to be a massive issue for the Conservative Party.

02:21:04.000 Now, not many polls have been reporting yet. We're at a very small number of polls that have completely reported.

02:21:12.180 so we're going to go over to uh the new brunswick sorry not new brunswick but um

02:21:18.180 newfoundland ridings which we have officially declared central newfoundland uh to be a conservative

02:21:24.820 uh get it is clifford small he's the conservative party candidate in that riding and it's looking

02:21:30.660 like the neighboring ridings beside that uh terra nova and long range mountains are trending in a

02:21:37.220 similar direction with the conservative party upsetting both of those two liberal candidates

02:21:42.740 now we're not declaring those two writings yet but we are saying right now that it is likely the

02:21:48.980 conservative party will uh will be taking those writings uh from the from the liberal party

02:21:55.620 we're gonna go uh see we should have some guests coming on the stream here soon uh we're just

02:22:00.980 speaking with the green room to see exactly when that is going to be happening um but we are going

02:22:06.580 to continue going riding by riding to see exactly what is going on in these first few ridings that

02:22:13.220 uh have been called and declared the conservative uh the the the liberal declarations that have that

02:22:20.180 have come out so far are the riding of labrador it's a huge riding in newfoundland uh and philip

02:22:27.140 earl who is the uh liberal candidate there is an incumbent it is being declared that that riding

02:22:33.700 will go liberal which was expected but it is one of the few that is fully in the bag for the liberals

02:22:40.100 right now acadia bathurst is another one that is coming out 70 for the liberal party of canada

02:22:48.260 which is a little bit surprising um that they're doing that well um but uh depending on how the

02:22:55.140 rest of the ridings go in that area uh will determine how the conservatives do uh and how

02:23:00.580 the you know how the liberal party does in the easternmost ridings of this country paul connors

02:23:05.060 in avalon uh he is doing exceptionally well as well with 53 of the vote uh steve kent is looking

02:23:13.380 like he's going to struggle that's the conservative party candidate there he's going to struggle

02:23:18.420 to uh upset that riding the conservative party really hoped that that would be happening uh that

02:23:23.700 the conservative party would be able to break through a little bit there and it's turning out

02:23:27.060 to just not be the case we're just waiting for some more results to come in uh here with um

02:23:39.620 more writings closing in 30 minutes we're going to have more coming on here soon with updates from

02:23:45.860 our decision desk that we will be relaying to you guys shortly i do want to mention you'll see me a

02:23:51.620 little bit looking at my screen uh i am chatting in this live uh chat room that we have on sub

02:23:58.020 stack junior news is hosting this exclusive chat room for subscribers and in the bottom left hand

02:24:02.500 corner of your screen you'll see this qr code which if you scan it uh you will be able to see

02:24:08.820 the spreadsheet that i'm looking at as results come in from election canada and as we are able

02:24:14.180 to report them. We are chatting with our subscribers about what is going on in this

02:24:24.500 country. So we are just waiting for our next guest to come on the show. Barbara Kay should be the one

02:24:28.920 that joins us. She's a reporter with the National Post. We're just waiting for her to come on the

02:24:34.860 screen now. Oh, there she is. There's Barbara. How are you today? I'm fine. I'm fine, Kean. How are you?

02:24:40.520 busy. Not too bad. Yeah, it has been a busy day for sure. I was just wondering, I wanted to ask

02:24:46.800 you, how are things, you're out east right now, how are things looking out there from the voters

02:24:51.360 that you've spoken to today? In Montreal or in general? Yeah, well in general, but in Montreal

02:24:58.360 specifically, we're curious. As someone out west, it's hard to understand exactly what

02:25:04.600 the political zeitgeist is out there. There's just so many more moving parts out there than

02:25:10.040 or is out west with the Bloc, with the NDP, with the Liberals and the Conservatives.

02:25:14.240 What is going on there from your perspective?

02:25:16.820 Okay, so I think the NDP are out of it, totally.

02:25:20.940 So it's really the Bloc, the Liberals and the Conservatives.

02:25:25.400 And Conservatives, I think they're hoping to get nine seats in the province.

02:25:30.340 In Montreal itself, they probably won't get seats.

02:25:34.960 It's in the Quebec City area where the Conservatives have had strong showings in the past and where they may have.

02:25:42.960 It's really the bloc that we're watching because the bloc traditionally has been stronger in the past and would have been stronger without the Trump effect.

02:25:54.140 and uh if the bloc had a strong showing in quebec in general it would really uh it would

02:26:01.800 really work to the conservatives advantage in in creating a minority government uh with you know

02:26:07.780 and they would be very supportive of some of the conservative ideas so um they have to get

02:26:17.360 they have to get 32%, break through that 32%.

02:26:21.060 And none of the pollsters that I've seen are willing to predict

02:26:27.180 because it's too close to call, or it was too close to call a while ago.

02:26:30.840 I haven't seen any movement so far.

02:26:35.200 So that's-

02:26:36.540 Can you describe for Western viewers, basically anyone outside of Quebec,

02:26:41.020 where is it that the Conservative Party would hope to break in in Quebec?

02:26:45.380 They don't have a ton of incumbent right now for the Conservative Party.

02:26:49.780 But if they were to do well, what would it look like and where would they be?

02:26:53.620 It would be in the Quebec City area and further north in Jean-Claude.

02:27:00.180 There are some conservative areas.

02:27:03.560 What would look good for them is I'm trying to think of the number, the magic number that they have to break through.

02:27:11.000 but they'd have to get like 30 seats or more uh to do well in montreal the liberals in the anglophone

02:27:20.760 sector and even in the uh even in the francophone sector it's pretty liberal pretty darn liberal

02:27:27.800 um you know my own writing was um uh mark carno's writing and before that um uh lucien

02:27:37.640 Lucille Robitaille, was it? I forget. Anyways, it's very, very, very liberal. So I,

02:27:43.080 I voted my protest vote to make sure that, you know, the population numbers at least, you know,

02:27:48.440 recorded a few votes for, for me and my husband, so. Yeah. If you don't mind me jumping in here,

02:27:56.280 Kian, great to see you, Barbara. I was off, but I'm back on the feed. One of the interesting things

02:28:01.080 about watching the debates was how well Yves-Francois Blanchet performed. He seemed to be

02:28:06.620 talking about the issues actually that mattered to me. He was the one that was hardest on

02:28:10.480 immigration, really hammering Mark Carney on conflict of interest and accusing him, rightfully

02:28:16.340 so, of saying different things in different parts of the countries, in parts of the country,

02:28:20.520 different languages. So when Mark Carney was in Alberta, he was talking about building pipelines

02:28:24.360 when he was in British Columbia. He said he was going to use the Emergencies Act to build a

02:28:27.460 pipeline. Two days later, he's on French CBC saying never, never going to happen, never going

02:28:31.720 to happen. Yeah, I thought he had a really good night on election night. He was also the only

02:28:35.680 person to mention the word Islamism, but nobody else took him up on it. And I thought that was 1.00

02:28:41.280 too bad because that is one of the many issues that have not been discussed in this election

02:28:47.880 cycle. And that really should have been. There are just a lot of issues, cultural issues that

02:28:54.260 mark carney doesn't want to go near at all uh so people like him uh he's sharp-witted but he um

02:29:03.860 if it weren't for the trump effect i i think he would have had an extremely good night

02:29:08.020 uh you know quebecers are funny they're very nationalistic but they got thrown by the trump 1.00

02:29:16.020 effect and and and they're still federalist at heart when it comes to stability uh they want

02:29:21.780 that stability you know the old story about wanting to be an independent country within a

02:29:27.140 strong canada you know that's the that's been the usual there's one writing that i follow with

02:29:33.540 extreme interest and that's uh um mount royal which was pierre trudeau's writing and is now

02:29:43.220 and it was erwin kotler's writing for many years and it's it's one of the strongest liberal writings

02:29:48.660 in the country and the most dependable. However, since October 7th, it's, it went up for grabs

02:29:55.900 because the, you know, the Kearney government is the same as the Trudeau government in that

02:30:02.000 respect, very little interest in stepping up to the plate on combating anti-Semitism and very,

02:30:09.780 very strong on keeping Muslim voters satisfied and respecting their, you know, their wishes.

02:30:21.100 And so Anthony Housefather, who's had that writing for many years, he's a very nice guy,

02:30:26.080 very decent guy, but he's had zero impact on the government. Trudeau made him his special advisor

02:30:33.280 on anti-semitism to give him you know a kind of symbolic role but he has no power and he never

02:30:39.600 did he he he was briefly parliamentary secretary um to um an anida anand what's is it and i forget

02:30:52.320 but then he supported christia freeland for the leadership so i mean so he has zero influence and

02:30:57.600 and he'll never be a cabinet minister, but the guy who's running against him, Neil Obermann,

02:31:03.480 is a very strong guy. He's a lawyer who was successful in getting some of the encampments

02:31:09.520 at McGill shutdown, and he's been running a very good campaign. You know, the Jewish residents of

02:31:17.700 the writing are, I think, the second most densely Jewish in Canada. The most Jewish is Thornhill,

02:31:24.760 I believe in Ontario, but here we have, you know, something like 25% of the riding is Jewish,

02:31:31.960 and if they all come out and vote one way, it's definitely very, they are able to swing that

02:31:38.440 riding. So it could go conservative, and so we're watching that, and that would make it the only

02:31:45.320 conservative riding in Montreal, because if he gets other, if he gets conservative

02:31:50.760 ridings at all it won't be in montreal it'll be further north uh so having um a conservative base

02:31:57.560 in montreal would be very important to poly ev and he would i think uh neil oberman would for sure

02:32:04.520 get a very good position in the government and he would have influence so that's i just want to

02:32:09.000 interrupt here uh and and let uh our viewers know that we are calling two ridings now officially

02:32:17.080 for the conservative party uh carol ainsley of long range mountain uh will be the next member

02:32:24.280 of parliament uh one of the newest member of parliaments for newfoundland and labrador

02:32:29.240 uh she is going to she has now exceeded 10 000 votes over 54 of the popular vote in her riding

02:32:36.440 which is absolutely surreal for the conservative party in that area they knew that they were going

02:32:41.320 to do a little bit better in this part of the province but they're doing exceptionally well

02:32:46.440 there. Not too far behind it is Terra Nova and the Peninsulas, which will be another upset. If

02:32:52.720 they do secure that, that will be the second handover from the Liberal Party to the Conservative

02:32:57.380 Party tonight. And it's still just early hours of the campaign. What we're calling for the Liberal

02:33:02.800 Party, just to run through them super quickly, Avalon, Labrador, Acadia Bathurst, that's Serge

02:33:11.000 cormier's writing and then of course um uh i i'm not even going to try to pronounce it uh it's

02:33:17.960 bezjour i i think uh it's dominic leblanc's writing of course that was going to go liberal

02:33:23.640 and it did uh it went resoundingly liberal at almost 60 that has now been called as well

02:33:29.720 and just as i'm reading this uh there's another declaration for tobik medicac uh i am sure i'm

02:33:37.720 butchering these terribly you'll have to forgive me but richard bragdon the conservative party

02:33:42.200 candidate uh has secured that seat he was an incumbent though unlike the two conservative

02:33:46.840 writings that we've already called that is an incumbent seat secured for the conservative

02:33:51.160 party so right now uh i it i think it is too early to say whether this is going well or not

02:33:57.000 i think we'll bring our decision desk back soon to actually give an authoritative statistical

02:34:02.280 analysis of whether it's a good night or a bad night for the conservative party as we're just

02:34:06.840 projecting into the evening um but right now you know you can't be too upset with two uh two upsets

02:34:13.240 of big liberal names wow this is so interesting barbara like i want to get your thoughts on this

02:34:19.880 because it seemed that the pollsters were all pretty unanimously saying that this was going to

02:34:24.600 be a huge liberal blowout tonight and i don't know that this is any early predictor it could just be

02:34:29.640 a few anomalies but i'm deeply skeptical of the polls i know a lot of our audiences as well what

02:34:34.680 do you what do you think of the the polls and the way that they've sort of all followed each other

02:34:39.080 as a pack like kind of mirroring what each other is saying i have i i every election lately i have

02:34:47.400 less um uh kind of confidence in the pollsters i think what happened in the united states

02:34:55.160 at the last election just blew my mind how far off the mark uh the pollsters were

02:35:02.200 and so I have taken the ones who say it's going to be a liberal blowout with a grain of salt

02:35:08.580 I don't think I ever came around to thinking okay they're so far off the market it's going

02:35:15.140 to be a conservative blowout I don't think that but I mean I have a very I think it's a very

02:35:22.840 well-founded hope and hearing about these seats that Kian just told us about seems to me a very

02:35:29.400 good sign um that well i can add some color to that um long range mountains for the conservatives

02:35:37.080 our juno news decision desk modeling was projecting that the conservatives would win that by 47

02:35:44.840 percent and for context for everyone if if you just want a little bit of hope here uh they're

02:35:50.680 now winning it by 54 so that's exceeding uh that's exceeding it by almost eight percent of our models

02:35:57.240 which were already um aggressive given how we were you know our juno news neighbor poll that

02:36:03.000 we had been relying on already showed uh better results for the conservatives than pretty much

02:36:07.720 any other uh pollster in in the country uh and now with our models with that aggressive

02:36:13.480 conservative polling uh i shouldn't say conservative but with that aggressive

02:36:18.520 polling for the conservatives um they're exceeding that in that one riding so it's just one one note

02:36:24.360 and it could be a regional difference uh you know up to five percent you can say uh is it could be

02:36:30.520 caused by a good or bad candidate of course the majority voters vote based off of who the leader

02:36:36.280 is uh it goes leader party loyalty and then it goes down to who the candidate is whether they're

02:36:42.120 a good candidate you know have they been a long time community advocate volunteer or whatever

02:36:46.040 maybe they're a star candidate that would only change uh the actual results by about five percent

02:36:51.160 And that could be what we're seeing here. But, you know, we're not you can't discredit yet that maybe this is just turning out to be better for the conservatives than expected.

02:36:59.660 I certainly hope you're right. I've just the last couple of days, I've been so antsy and jittery.

02:37:10.520 I can't settle down to anything. So I'm so glad this is going to be over a few hours, whatever.

02:37:16.000 but but it's been a whirlwind uh whirlwind for a few months now ever since uh ever since

02:37:22.320 Justin Trudeau announced that he'd be stepping down we knew that it was time to put the seat

02:37:25.740 belts on uh because it was going to be a bumpy ride and now we are at the point in the night

02:37:30.620 where results are actually starting to come in for Quebec so the Bloc Quebecois has received

02:37:37.160 and reported their first votes um if if you could see the riding name that is in front of me right

02:37:44.280 now, you would understand why I'm not trying to pronounce it. It is like 18 syllables and it's

02:37:49.580 all in French. But Alexis Deschamps, I think is his name, it is already pretty clear that he is

02:37:57.980 going to run away with this. It is two out of 300 polls. So maybe it's just polls that are

02:38:05.000 favorable to him, but he is now sitting at 46%. That is with a split with the Liberals. The

02:38:13.400 Conservatives are trailing in that riding.

02:38:15.120 That's the first riding being called in Quebec.

02:38:17.320 What is the name of the riding?

02:38:19.880 I am not even going to try to pronounce this one.

02:38:26.120 So, you know, we will see as the night goes on how that goes.

02:38:30.020 But polls are going to continue to close.

02:38:33.160 And as ridings get called, I will just chime in here and hopefully not interrupt too much as we actually have decisions on each individual riding.

02:38:42.260 all right well thank you for that kian and thank you so much for your time barbara this is barbara

02:38:46.400 k from the national post we always appreciate your insights and we will be watching that mount

02:38:50.560 royal riding now in quebec thank you for that added uh insight i hope i hope the conservatives

02:38:55.120 managed to uh pull up a big upset there that would be really interesting thanks thank you thank you

02:39:00.700 barbara and we are going to just go right into our next guest i'm super pleased to be introducing

02:39:05.380 sam cooper who's an investigative journalist he runs the page called the bureau on subsec and he

02:39:11.240 has just been phenomenal in feeding stories that are completely counter to what you find in the

02:39:17.240 legacy media exposing mostly the work of china and the interference that they run in our elections 0.62

02:39:23.400 the deep integration that they have in our country really alarming stuff things that you would expect

02:39:29.160 a free press to be reporting on and yet they don't so do we have sam there sam jumping in

02:39:35.640 Hey, Sam. Welcome to Juno News' live election broadcast. Great to see you.

02:39:41.960 Glad to be with you tonight.

02:39:43.760 How are you feeling?

02:39:45.740 I'm feeling good, like everyone. I've been chasing this campaign in my own way, where my expertise is strong, and I'm enjoying your coverage.

02:39:55.180 And it looks early on like we have a real a real race here.

02:39:59.240 So we'll all be up, you know, tonight and I'll be following writings of my special interest.

02:40:05.760 And that is where China is interfering in ways that no Canadian should accept.

02:40:10.980 And, you know, I'm happy that I've been able to lead stories that were then jumped on by New York Times and the Globe and Mail.

02:40:18.300 And there's just like really serious interference going on from the top support of Mark Carney to the bottom.

02:40:24.840 And when I say bottom, I mean physical intimidation of Canadian election candidates, especially in the Toronto area.

02:40:32.820 And so what specific writings then are you looking at?

02:40:35.200 Obviously, we're talking about Markham Unionville, where Paul Chiang was the candidate and he was removed.

02:40:39.920 What other writings do you think have been, you know, had China's thumb on the scale?

02:40:46.260 Well, I start out in Richmond, Steveston.

02:40:49.620 That's where Kenny Chu lost. As everyone knows, it's proven that a very egregious attack because, you know, he's a Hong Kong Canadian. 1.00

02:40:59.700 Interestingly, I think a Christian background and Beijing doesn't like that.

02:41:04.540 And so he suggested a foreign agent registry and was attacked through all vectors.

02:41:09.800 And I believe, you know, I although it hasn't really come out, I think physical security was a concern there.

02:41:16.480 He was beat by Parm Baines for the Liberals, who was, I believe, the subject of the NSI cop report in terms of a person benefiting from textbook foreign interference.

02:41:29.940 And I won't get into the weeds too much, but very simply, Mr. Baines was asked on a Beijing sort of intelligent, sort of, I would say intelligence linked to media channel, you know, what he thought about foreign agent registry.

02:41:43.520 Mr. Baines jumped right in and said, it's basically racist. And what do you know? He's

02:41:48.340 supported by Beijing. So I'll be looking at the candidate, Zach Siegel, running for the

02:41:54.340 Conservatives to see who gets the support there tonight. And as you said, in Toronto,

02:42:01.460 two ridings, Markham Unionville, where Peter Yuen is running against Michael Ma, the Conservative,

02:42:06.840 and uh dawn valley north uh where joseph tay another hong kong canadian uh democracy advocate

02:42:15.600 who as you know has been deeply attacked through cyber operations and as i reported was uh to the

02:42:23.020 extent where he was advised not to campaign toward a door this week to put a pause on appearing in

02:42:29.900 person and the new york times followed up on my report confirming all that information so mr tay

02:42:35.540 is running against Maggie Key for the Liberals.

02:42:39.400 And all my indications are Maggie Key would be getting 0.99

02:42:42.300 the same types of people friendly with the Toronto consulate,

02:42:46.920 you know, supportive of her,

02:42:49.020 as probably would be supportive of Peter Yuen,

02:42:51.840 as probably would be supportive out in Vancouver,

02:42:54.600 Vancouver consulate types of parm bains.

02:42:57.660 It's interesting to me that after what we found out

02:43:00.080 about the 2021 election,

02:43:01.880 which was that there was a coordinated WeChat campaign

02:43:05.160 that they targeted certain seats held by conservatives specifically against Erin O'Toole.

02:43:11.080 We had the report in parliament. They studied it. They looked into it. And then here we are in the

02:43:15.800 middle of a federal election. It's happening again. And Sam, I would say, aside from your

02:43:20.260 wonderful, intrepid, independent reporting, it really didn't seem like a major issue on the

02:43:25.160 campaign. You know, there was some coverage of it early on. And then we kind of just moved on,

02:43:30.120 knowing that China had, you know, active interference campaigns, that they had a plan

02:43:35.460 to paint Canadian conservatives like Trump that was released. And yet it was happening. And it

02:43:41.860 seemed like the legacy media just didn't mind. They just allowed it to continue. What do you

02:43:46.160 think about that? I agree with that. And, you know, to start with the, I would call the air

02:43:52.880 war narrative that Pierre Polyev would be a Trump-like candidate. As you know, that was the

02:43:59.140 Liberal Party campaign front and center.

02:44:02.620 And as I reported, and also the CITE task force,

02:44:06.240 which really came to life out of my previous sort of exposure,

02:44:11.360 they said controversially that Mark Carney was targeted

02:44:15.460 in a Beijing cyber operation when you and others would have noted

02:44:21.060 that really Mark Carney was boosted by a WeChat narrative

02:44:24.500 that he will be sort of, if I'm just paraphrasing,

02:44:29.140 very bluntly what this chinese intelligence high-level narrative was mark carney rockstar

02:44:35.300 economist will be a strong uh you know fighter against donald trump and this is where i say i

02:44:42.820 don't think i'm even out on a limb saying that i see consistently election to election

02:44:48.900 and overlap between the liberal party plat well the liberal party campaign talking points and what

02:44:54.900 I see as, and now confirmed, Chinese intelligence narratives. So you're right. I have the expertise 0.69

02:45:02.840 to drill down into actual sort of WeChat message boards because I have great sources within the

02:45:10.900 Chinese Canadian journalist community that can translate and can flag those issues for me. So I

02:45:17.420 think I had reports almost every day of this rolling interference. And again, I would report

02:45:24.080 something next week the site task force would essentially confirm it and you're right we did

02:45:29.200 i would say you know the globe and mail followed some of reporting and had a few good stories uh

02:45:36.480 my former employer uh jumped on the bandwagon a few weeks later and pointed to some you know

02:45:42.640 flag saluting from peter uen at toronto at the ontario legislature saluting beijing's flag and

02:45:50.640 And so, look, as I say, all of this stuff is out there in plain sight.

02:45:54.880 And you're right.

02:45:56.220 If The New York Times, you know, followed my reporting and confirmed its accuracy, I suppose, you know, maybe other Canadian media such as CBC might have to do something in the aftermath.

02:46:07.960 But I think you're pointing to, one, we have deep institutional concerns where the issues I exposed have not been addressed.

02:46:17.360 And also, you know, that that cascades down into Canadian media, which, as you know, a lot of it is, let's just say, quite friendly to the Liberal Party of Canada and not very willing to be very curious about digging into interference from China and also other countries.

02:46:33.760 I want to make a note here of some live action that we're seeing in the betting markets.

02:46:40.600 You know, the famous poly market that predicted Donald Trump would win had a lot of conservatives concerned early on in this campaign and throughout the end, especially when the conservatives ended up with a 20 percent likelihood of winning.

02:46:54.180 You could put 80 cents on Mark Carney and get a dollar back. You could put 20 cents on Pierre Polyev and get a dollar back if he won right now.

02:47:03.760 those uh those odds are uh converging actually there's been a huge spike in the likelihood of

02:47:10.560 pierre paulia being the next prime minister of this country it went from 20 to 28 just in the

02:47:17.120 last few minutes there's been a huge spike so that doesn't mean anything necessarily obviously those

02:47:21.920 are not the votes that are being counted in the ballot box but they were accurate when donald

02:47:26.080 trump ended up winning so seeing those converge here in the early hours of uh election night it

02:47:31.440 It is definitely got to be, the war room is certainly watching those numbers, and they're probably pleased to see that convergence happening.

02:47:37.580 I would like to ask Sam a quick question.

02:47:39.460 Sorry, if you want to.

02:47:40.380 I just wanted to ask because I've heard rumors, and maybe Sam can confirm this, and you can ask your question too, Kian.

02:47:45.140 But I've heard rumors that the poly markets are being manipulated somehow by China.

02:47:49.380 That's part of their Chinese interference. 0.99

02:47:50.780 It's just a rumor, but I'm wondering what your thoughts on that were.

02:47:53.220 Well, I was going to jump on Kian's point there.

02:47:55.920 I mean, I saw the snapback as soon as we see some early polls come in.

02:48:00.320 It's almost like those wide odds snap back together.

02:48:03.740 And, you know, I had the benefit of being, you know, welcome to Taiwan for some reporting in 2023.

02:48:09.960 As I knew they're the absolute test case of a democracy standing against, you know, deep, repetitive decades of interference.

02:48:18.920 And those intelligence officials in Taiwan disclosed to me, I'm paraphrasing the story that I broke.

02:48:25.340 they said there's a classic method of election interference from china they will feed underground

02:48:31.180 betting markets or i guess we could call them above ground crypto based betting markets and

02:48:36.780 they will skew the odds in such ways that they will uh you know offer the odds to people that

02:48:42.860 can pour big bets into a candidate and beijing is trying to get the impression that this will

02:48:48.380 be the front runner and they hope you know everyone knows people can be manipulated and influenced by

02:48:54.460 polls and so that's the strategy from beijing and you know that i've been the leader on exposing how

02:49:01.420 china uses organized crime uses gambling uses underground casinos and the taiwanese officials 0.97

02:49:07.420 told me they are very aware of that tactic they didn't name polymarket but they named they uh

02:49:14.140 probably for legal reasons they said certain markets are offered beijing manipulates them

02:49:19.900 to try to manipulate the election so was that happening here with holly market

02:49:24.860 i and others notice you know some very interesting activity and the proof could be in the pudding

02:49:30.700 here that you know we see those odds snap back as soon as there's some real votes coming in so

02:49:36.700 i i would not it's it's incredibly fascinating and it what it says to me is look i've talked

02:49:43.420 to u.s government officials canadian government officials they say mr cooper you're doing good

02:49:48.620 work exposing but even we in the u.s government do not understand the many deep and clandestine

02:49:55.500 ways that beijing interferes so it's not beyond a stretch of imagination that beijing would be

02:50:00.860 skewing those odds markets i have uh two uh two breaking news statements to make here

02:50:06.620 uh the juno news decision desk has just called saint john st croix and fundy royal as conservative

02:50:14.060 holds with mp john williamson and rob moore he's been a long-time conservative on track to return

02:50:22.620 to ottawa they have been re-elected officially that's the junior news decision desk and secondly

02:50:27.340 the cpc is currently on pace to hold all eight of their atlantic seats this is huge news folks

02:50:34.460 they will be very happy if these numbers hold uh every single one of their incumbencies

02:50:40.540 is so far uh looking good for them which is uh which is you know i i think better than they

02:50:47.100 could have hoped for atlantic canada given the polls given what we've seen that's the news cpc

02:50:52.620 leading in all of their incumbent seats they have even turned over two seats now from the liberals

02:50:58.060 so it's shaping up to be a good night in at least eastern canada we'll see how ontario and then i

02:51:04.060 you know i've been waiting to say vote rich ontario uh we'll see how ontario turns out as well but

02:51:09.340 But right now, you can bet that the Conservative Party war room is pretty thrilled with these results.

02:51:17.460 Wow. I mean, I saw a post earlier that said that if the Conservatives get eight seats in Atlantic Canada,

02:51:23.760 it's a precursor for potentially a Conservative blowout.

02:51:27.440 So I'm not saying it's happening. That was just one projection.

02:51:31.220 But really overperforming. And it brings me to the polls, Sam.

02:51:35.460 I'm curious what you think of the polls, whether you think they're accurate.

02:51:39.340 And what do you make of the whole sort of pollster polling industry?

02:51:43.400 Well, very early on, I saw, you know, one notorious pollster jumped out with, you know,

02:51:50.420 outlier polls suggesting that Mark Carney or the liberals were racing into majority territory.

02:51:56.380 And of course, I was very skeptical. And so, you know, obviously, the sort of Trump trolling

02:52:05.420 narrative did take hold and there was you know uh you know the the liberals are doing well

02:52:11.540 but i again if if china can skew polls and they do as taiwanese officials tell me in their election

02:52:19.000 interference i wouldn't put it beyond uh canadian political parties to be involved in getting you

02:52:26.260 know shady pollsters to throw out numbers and then you get some clustering happening

02:52:30.360 So I did suspect that could be an issue here. And maybe in these early numbers, we're seeing

02:52:37.060 that people were not so very ignorant to question the polls. Another thing that occurred to me

02:52:46.220 was that as the numbers started to roll forward, there were people that said, we need to question

02:52:54.140 the polls. And other people were stabbing back with, oh, this is kind of American

02:53:00.000 populism making its way into Canada's election again. And that snowballed into the whole,

02:53:08.340 okay, Mark Carney is the one to combat Trump 2.0 in Poliev. So I just find as an expert on

02:53:15.940 foreign interference and political manipulation, I think we're at a place where Canadians,

02:53:22.760 you know, are fair to question whether polling is accurate. And you, I know Juno pointed to the

02:53:29.140 sort of ask your neighbor poll or whether how is it what's your neighbor thinking about and that

02:53:34.540 points to whether there is kind of a shy conservative vote in the same way that uh the trump vote uh was

02:53:42.440 shy and i think that pointed to concerns around immigration so quite possibly there are canadians

02:53:48.060 that i think would be shy to admit that conservatives would be a little stronger

02:53:51.980 on immigration and that we could see that tonight i do believe interesting all right we bring on

02:53:57.760 new guests we have jasmine lane host of over opinionated on youtube and mario zalejo canada's

02:54:02.560 number one tick tocker welcome to the program guys thank you hey how you guys doing good how

02:54:08.880 are you feeling mario how do you think the night's going so far really good like very very good i um

02:54:15.520 i think i echo a lot of what sam was saying before is i i think i i was probably potentially one of

02:54:22.240 the most local people against the polls and i you know called out a lot of bias i found out from

02:54:29.600 a particular liberal mp that one of the owners of the poll was one of his campaign managers

02:54:34.800 and he's like he was my guy and i was like really he's like oh this guy bleeds red and you know

02:54:40.560 seeing the swings go from like you know liberals up 15 that would mean that you would have to take

02:54:46.720 maybe i think a double digit um double digit numbers away from the conservatives which to me

02:54:53.600 makes absolutely no sense because you know i i i don't want to overly generalize but i think a lot

02:54:59.920 of conservatives are very strong in their beliefs and i don't think it's one of those things where

02:55:04.320 oh wow mark carney's in the picture you know a bunch of us are going to leave and i i was always

02:55:10.160 very very skeptical and so i think some of the early results are very promising well i was all

02:55:16.480 I'll be perfectly honest. I was very confident for the Conservatives heading into the weekend.

02:55:20.660 I thought there was a couple of really strong signs. Sam mentioned our neighbor poll. We've

02:55:24.600 been doing a neighbor poll throughout the campaign, where rather than just asking people in a poll,

02:55:28.200 who are you voting for? We ask who their neighbor is voting for, because I think that's

02:55:31.900 kind of a more interesting tell. This has been helpful in other elections, helping you get

02:55:37.560 results that others miss, including the recent election in the U.S. But, you know, just based

02:55:43.080 on what's happening in your neighborhood, how many lawn signs are you seeing? What are you

02:55:45.640 on social media what are your friends and family talking about what are you hearing at work and

02:55:48.760 around the water cooler and the the the neighborhood consistently showed conservatives ahead now i

02:55:54.600 don't think that by any means you know we know what's happening uh just you know we've only had

02:55:59.320 polls close in atlantic canada so it's still a long night ahead a lot of those results are going

02:56:03.320 to be coming in in the next half hour when the ontario polls close jasmine i'll ask this question

02:56:09.160 to you like do you think that the poll well just i'll just ask you the basic question do you do

02:56:14.600 you think the polls are right if you think they're wrong how wrong are they are we talking about one

02:56:19.320 or two percentage or is it going to be like they're off by 10 is that possible i i would say

02:56:25.400 that i think the polls are right and they're wrong in the fact that they will kind of judge

02:56:32.040 what canadians are thinking and feeling based on a poll that has a sample size of anywhere from 800

02:56:38.120 to the most i saw in recent weeks was 3 000 canadians and somehow they can say that means the

02:56:43.720 liberals are going to win by a landslide so they're right in that the people answering them

02:56:49.080 are likely answering truthful but wrong in the way that they are conducted and how much they're used

02:56:54.280 to represent a far larger demographic than they actually do well and it's so interesting because

02:56:59.800 canada i mean we pretend that we're one big united country but really like each region is almost

02:57:04.760 distinct into of itself like i i don't know that the polls are accurately capturing quebec

02:57:09.000 at all it seems to me the bloc is doing really well and the bloc leader is you know hitting on

02:57:13.000 a lot of major cultural points that all the other parties are afraid of, and yet polls show that

02:57:17.120 liberals are doing really well there. So I agree with your skepticism. Mario, I want to change

02:57:21.740 gears a little, and maybe I'll bring Sam in on this as well. I've been noticing you have been

02:57:26.040 talking about some sort of voter irregularities, some concerns you have around election integrity

02:57:30.840 with regards to Elections Canada. Can you help us walk through the story of, I think, someone on the

02:57:36.440 ground reporting they saw campaign workers taking advanced polls home to their to their house and

02:57:43.180 then elections canada saying that that's that's a regular practice that they allow that walk us

02:57:47.940 through that story and then sam if you if you have any comments on that i'd love to hear your

02:57:51.420 thoughts too yeah so when i first heard the story completely blew my mind i was like there's no way

02:57:56.620 people are taking ballots home like this is crazy because i get a lot of messages and i'm sifting

02:58:00.360 through it. And I said, there's no way. I mean, I saw a video. I mean, I saw a video of someone

02:58:06.320 actually taking the polls home. And I initially posted the message that I got. And I got actually

02:58:14.060 a message from someone who's worked in the elections in the past. And they work currently

02:58:19.820 for a campaign. And they basically ran me through a high level process of they do do it. It's weird,

02:58:28.720 but it's normal and when they do do it it's um i guess they have some sort of a seal

02:58:36.260 i'll call it a seal system where they seal it they sign off on it and when they comes back in

02:58:43.240 that morning in the morning that seal is still in place that they did communicate to me that

02:58:48.660 he felt that there was very very very low chance and low probability of tampering happening but i

02:58:56.540 think all Canadians can basically agree it's a very weird thing to be able to take ballots home

02:59:03.120 with you. I find it very strange. I think it's something that definitely needs to be changed.

02:59:08.540 There needs to be a much better process for it. I don't like it whatsoever. Despite my concerns

02:59:16.600 being relatively alleviated based on what this gentleman told me, I simply just don't like it.

02:59:22.900 What do you think of that, Sam?

02:59:24.240 I have no awareness of the allegations that actual polls in themselves could be tampered with

02:59:32.380 or that officials could be carting them around. Certainly, you know, we're blessed now that we

02:59:38.180 have open source evidence and people able to capture, you know, evidence on their phones.

02:59:43.040 So if there's something there, let's get to the bottom of it. What I do know is, you know,

02:59:47.860 my expertise in the greater Toronto area, we've had ridings. I reported and broke the news that

02:59:53.620 Bob Sorolla, the incumbent in that Markham Unionville rioting. According to my senior

02:59:59.680 sourcing from the O'Toole campaign, CSIS had shared with the campaign that Mr. Sorolla and

03:00:08.280 his team were being followed around by Chinese agents and that there appeared to be suppression

03:00:14.140 efforts. That is the community, the diaspora, being intimidated to the extent where officials

03:00:19.920 may follow a campaign around and then go knock on the door a few minutes later. And you can imagine

03:00:25.800 what kind of fear could be filtered in that way. I also know, I believe it's public that Leona

03:00:33.000 Alisev, in her Toronto riding, I think she filed some affidavits. Certainly, I've heard the

03:00:38.860 allegations that there were concerns that actual Chinese proxies or officials could be in the

03:00:45.400 polling stations, again, raising the concern in 2021 that community members would feel fearful

03:00:51.680 to even vote for, let's say they wanted to go against the wave of the Chinese intelligence 0.88

03:00:58.960 propaganda and vote conservative, they would feel that they couldn't do that. So that's what I know

03:01:04.320 I can say with confidence. I do think those concerns could be continuing in this current

03:01:09.340 election. I think there's more to come on that question. Well, it's interesting because I know

03:01:15.080 that during the US election, when they were dealing with all kinds of weird ballot issues,

03:01:19.360 advanced polling and digital counters, I kind of took solace in the fact that Canada did the

03:01:24.520 old fashioned way where you just mark a ballot, it's a piece of paper, you know, someone's counting

03:01:28.720 them, but there's scrutineers watching. And then, you know, this time around, it just seems like

03:01:32.400 there's shenanigans at play. And it makes you a little nervous about the integrity of our election.

03:01:37.940 But obviously, we have faith in the system, I want to change gears a little, I mean, I'm speaking to

03:01:41.640 three of the most sort of influential people in the new media space. So Sam Cooper is an

03:01:47.500 investigative journalist who runs one of Canada's best Substack pages. Jasmine Lane has a huge

03:01:53.260 audience on multiple platforms. She hosts the over-opinionated podcast. You recently had a very

03:01:58.660 exclusive sit-down interview with Anna Polyev and Pierre Polyev. And then Mario, I kind of,

03:02:04.240 you know, I jokingly introduced you as Canada's number one TikToker. I think you are. I think

03:02:07.740 you show that you had 100 million views over the last, I think, 90 days. You're so much more than

03:02:13.440 that, though, because you're really kind of a journalist in your own right, you know, reporting

03:02:17.660 news, you get tons of tips sent to you, you're informing an entirely new generation of Canadians

03:02:22.500 that get their news from places like TikTok, but you also have a huge account on Instagram and Axe

03:02:28.200 as well. And so I'm wondering, I'll go to you first, Jasmine, how do you think that the new

03:02:33.220 landscape of independent journalists influencers content creators you know there's a whole group

03:02:39.620 of people that are really tipping the needle you know a lot of young people and a lot of people who

03:02:44.260 are much more i would say conservative than the establishment media types

03:02:50.100 you know there's so many points that i could make on that uh one in particular i read this there was

03:02:54.820 an article published by the crtc which is who essentially governs all mainstream media and

03:03:01.940 the crtc had actually done some research and they found that it was somewhere around 76 76

03:03:08.820 percent of canadians did not trust the mainstream media anymore which for them you would think would

03:03:14.580 be a massive wake-up call right to maybe change gears and be more relatable more trustworthy

03:03:20.100 possibly um but but as a whole you know i'm fully expecting to see vashi capellos on youtube in

03:03:26.740 another five years i i really do think that this is just the the very beginning of it and it goes

03:03:33.060 to show the the passion and the hunger that canadians have for multiple perspectives and

03:03:39.620 it's you know i always say it's it's fine to have a bias everybody has a bias but the difference

03:03:44.180 between um people like myself is that i give you my bias right right up front and you can then

03:03:51.780 make your opinions and judge with that in mind versus being under the impression that i'm giving

03:03:58.020 you a full story um to which you just think is is absolutely the truth when it when it simply

03:04:03.220 is not i'm telling you i'm not biased i'm a really good you know middle ground and then proceeding

03:04:08.500 to tell my bias and everything that i do and say so i i think it really just goes to show how hungry

03:04:14.260 canadians are for trust and transparency and honesty on so many different levels and i'm

03:04:19.780 I'm really happy to see it.

03:04:20.760 I really am.

03:04:21.240 I think it's a beautiful thing that so many people who, you know, it's not like you went

03:04:25.520 to school to get all these big degrees, but you did care a lot and caring a lot caused

03:04:31.280 you to say what you think and to do your research and create a wonderful community, you know,

03:04:37.220 where people genuinely just really care about the future of our country.

03:04:42.040 Oh, that's so interesting.

03:04:43.160 A hundred percent.

03:04:43.760 I mean, I think the biggest difference between myself or yourself and someone like Rosemary

03:04:47.440 Barton is that I'll openly say that yeah I'm I lean conservative my values are conservative

03:04:52.960 and that's where I stand and you know that about me and now I'm going to report the news I'm still

03:04:56.560 going to tell you the truth I'm still going to tell you the facts but I'm not going to pretend

03:05:00.320 that I'm some arbiter of truth or that I'm some completely neutral person and then quietly sneak

03:05:05.280 my bias in and you know pretend you know fact check people in real time even though you know

03:05:10.240 the facts aren't there with her talk about Rosemary Barton. Mario I want to ask you one of the things

03:05:16.880 that U.S. President Donald Trump did in 2024.

03:05:19.960 I know you were a fan of him back then.

03:05:21.340 I don't think so much anymore.

03:05:22.640 But, you know, he went out there

03:05:25.000 and met people where they were, right?

03:05:26.500 He really captured that young male audience

03:05:29.280 by doing podcasts, by going out

03:05:31.840 and hanging out with influencers

03:05:32.980 and doing things that were really

03:05:34.840 non-traditional for a politician.

03:05:37.300 I know, you know, we had Pierre Polyev

03:05:38.840 join Jasmine Lane's show and it was fantastic.

03:05:41.340 I kind of wish he had done more of that.

03:05:43.740 What do you think of the campaign

03:05:45.440 that the conservatives have run

03:05:46.800 And do you think that they should have maybe tried to get out there a little bit more?

03:05:50.760 Well, I think part of the sensitivity around Donald Trump and just in general, you know, America being painted as now our, you know, quote unquote enemy because of the tariffs created a problem for them in the campaign.

03:06:05.640 I think the strategy for them was to basically avoid a lot of the major podcasts, including Jill Rogan, you know, Patrick David Betts.

03:06:13.880 And so I think that was done with precision and with intent, and I think they avoided it.

03:06:20.260 And in a way, you know, my and like both of you have mentioned, like I'm very explicit about my bias and I think people are OK with it because I like to focus on facts.

03:06:33.560 I like to focus on truth. I, you know, have the facts right behind me.

03:06:37.520 I love using, you know, TikTok's ability to have a green screen behind you and speak to those facts.

03:06:42.400 And I basically read through, analyze and interpret. And I give my interpretation and I like to go through it in a logical manner. And I think that there's, you know, the reason that's important is I felt as though I was trying to reach that audience that maybe the Conservative Party couldn't reach themselves.

03:07:02.460 And I think, you know, having influencers like, you know, myself and Jasmine, and, you know, just in general, many others that have this wide reach does bring some yin to mainstream media's yang.

03:07:17.300 And I truly believe mainstream media is extremely far right reaching.

03:07:21.400 i believe it creates a massive problem and the peers rally in oakville the consistent messaging

03:07:30.160 i heard was i wouldn't have voted conservative if it wasn't for you i had a gentleman a young guy i

03:07:37.120 think he was probably in his mid to early 20s he's like i drove for five hours to see you

03:07:41.920 and he's like i came down for this event to see you it was just it was absolutely mind-blowing

03:07:47.040 at how many people you know i'm able to reach since uh the start of january i'm at i think a

03:07:54.340 quarter of a billion uh views and i focus and this is across the three platforms and you know my

03:08:01.920 and there's there's a rawness to what i do and what i say and and the rawness is you know i even

03:08:08.480 i was approached at the event you know hey mario we'd like to do a sponsorship with you are you

03:08:12.480 interested and i said no like i i don't take sponsorship i don't take money i don't promote

03:08:17.680 anything i will never have anything online and i think that that creates this level of trust

03:08:24.460 and people know that you know what i'm going to give them i'm not selling anything the only thing

03:08:30.100 i'm doing this for is for change and literally my whole and this is this is i think the funniest

03:08:34.900 part of the whole thing is i built my platform criticizing the liberal party just criticizing

03:08:42.140 all of the corruption all the scandals everything that has happened over the last you know year and

03:08:46.740 a half I mean for years and I'm just outlining it to people um and I think that the funny thing is

03:08:53.120 I had a chuckle with my wife is if the conservatives you know do pull ahead and they do win

03:08:58.100 I kind of created this self-destruct mechanism on on my account because that's what the whole

03:09:04.400 account was created over and you know you know I'm okay with that yeah you're gonna run out of

03:09:09.780 content. Well, hopefully not. I mean, I was feeling pretty good about ourselves here, Mario.

03:09:13.660 I think we have like 12,000 live viewers or maybe a little higher actually. And then you go and drop

03:09:19.600 your statistic about a quarter of a billion views and it's like, okay, it's like a drop in the

03:09:24.220 bucket. I will say I avoided TikTok for a long time. Sam, you could probably speak to this. I

03:09:29.300 was worried that it was basically Chinese spyware. Maybe it is. And I also felt like I was too old 0.99

03:09:34.200 for TikTok because I'm like an older millennial and I'm like, let the kids be on TikTok. I'll have

03:09:39.200 youtube show and then i met mario mario is like incredibly popular and he's i mean he looks young

03:09:44.400 but he's a dad and he told me that it's like oh i moved to canada 40 years ago i'm like how do you

03:09:49.120 look like you're like 25 but but i guess obviously if you moved to canada 40 years ago so i figured

03:09:54.080 hey mario's older than me so if he can be a tick tock star then i can too so you inspired me to uh

03:09:58.800 to start a tick tock account um sam what do you what do you think of tick tock wow that's a that's

03:10:05.920 the question i i have never used it myself and i i'm not against it by by any means

03:10:14.320 if i'm being very honest you know i'm under certain sort of um i could say that like joseph

03:10:21.200 tay i get certain recommendations from canadian police and intelligence of things that i shouldn't

03:10:26.560 do and probably if someone like myself that has very clearly been i can tell you i can share with

03:10:33.280 you here that i've i've been told i shouldn't travel to china then probably you know if people

03:10:39.520 care enough they can find a back door through anything but there's certain apps that probably

03:10:44.320 a little bit easier to get a back door into and i'm not criticizing you know anyone mario obviously

03:10:50.480 mario you've had your account shut down haven't you talk a little bit about that

03:10:54.880 actually yes i'm on my second account so my first account was shut down i was at 186 000 followers i

03:11:00.800 I was just, it was, it was just snowballing.

03:11:03.100 I literally had to start from scratch and people don't have,

03:11:08.340 people don't understand how hard it is to start from scratch.

03:11:11.360 Like it's very, very hard.

03:11:13.420 And the, my luck was that I had a very engaged following and they found me.

03:11:20.120 And so when I started putting out my content and I said, Hey guys,

03:11:22.700 my account got, you know, shut down immediately.

03:11:25.800 It started just snowballing again.

03:11:27.580 i created a backup account for my new account and i did it because i i was going to get that

03:11:35.120 second account already banned it actually got banned last week um and so i i from what i've

03:11:41.060 been told i got hit with a mass attack um and it got my account shut down and um you know

03:11:49.320 there's certain videos i would just talk about just facts i'm just saying you know this is

03:11:54.820 information I received this is what's happening I get a strike and I'm already headed down that path

03:12:00.660 again and so it's just I got access to my account again but it's it's a very tricky tough thing

03:12:08.540 because you're battling I and what I have seen and I know Jasmine will probably be able to attest to

03:12:14.140 this fact is I've seen so much bot farming on TikTok like literally four months ago you would

03:12:22.160 never see liberal content you would never see people being like pro trudeau poor you know pro

03:12:28.040 liberals pro you know uh as soon as mark harney stepped in the picture you could say mark harney

03:12:35.040 is you know better than peer polyev and it has like a thousand likes you would never see that

03:12:41.060 ever ever ever in in the history of tiktok and then all of a sudden you see all these comments

03:12:47.780 being upvoted i have a feeling and my opinion is cbc is heavily being infiltrated their tick tock

03:12:55.140 account because they have over 2 million followers it is so incredibly pro-liberal that never existed

03:13:01.620 you can go back in history and check some of those videos that stuff never existed that's what's

03:13:06.260 happening right now interesting sam do you have any comments on that i don't want to put you on

03:13:10.340 the spot because you said you don't know tick tock that well but it just to me it seems a little

03:13:13.940 fishy i don't know i mean we can just look at the joseph take case and you know i broke the news

03:13:19.780 that our our site election task force has disclosed that uh duyin which i think may have

03:13:26.580 some relationship wechat facebook a number of entities most of them chinese were used one to

03:13:33.540 amplify attacks on joseph tay so you would search we we were told that real news that is joseph

03:13:40.740 Teh's platform, Pierre Poliev's platform, would be suppressed on these entities that do have

03:13:46.560 control in Beijing. And on the other hand, the message that electing Joseph Teh would make

03:13:52.900 Canada, what do they say, a fugitive's paradise. That's the message from Beijing. And by the way,

03:14:00.240 that was kind of the message that Paul Chiang, Liberal MP, amplified himself. So your question

03:14:07.160 was is there a danger from apps controlled from china no question so i know mario you got to get

03:14:13.240 a couple burner accounts and some backups and keep your game rolling and you know i just wanted to

03:14:19.400 speak to your point look um in terms of the trust gap of canadian media yeah there's a big lane

03:14:26.520 opening up for investigative reporters influencers to grab that trust and also be open i'm i'm like

03:14:33.320 the rest of you look i break stories about the conservatives i break stories about the liberals

03:14:37.800 but i've said in this campaign voting for the liberals will be opening the door wider to the

03:14:43.160 destruction of our democracy because they're the party that china wants to win so i i'm very open 1.00

03:14:50.440 with people i say vote wisely or we're going to lose what we have here in canada 100 all right

03:14:56.600 well sam cooper mario zalejo jasmine i really appreciate the conversation great to have you on

03:15:00.920 i wish i could have you on for longer we do have to throw to a commercial break folks when we get

03:15:04.840 back we will be talking to our decision desk we have a couple of big breaking news announcements

03:15:10.600 when it comes to the seats and the votes rolling in so you're going to want to stick around

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03:18:37.120 all right folks welcome back to juno news's live stream broadcast really excited to have

03:18:51.760 you with us we had some technical issues so we dropped off on x so if you're watching on x right

03:18:56.720 now do me a favor give us a like it really helps with people discovering more people are watching

03:19:00.960 it more people will see it so it's always good to just you like the video share it get your friends

03:19:06.320 to be watching it as well. If you're watching on the YouTube channel, this is great. I'm so

03:19:11.600 excited by the number of people that we have watched. It's great to have you with us here.

03:19:16.060 Give us a like, give us a share. And if you have friends and family that are sitting at home

03:19:21.200 watching the CBC, just turn the CBC off. We're trying to replace the CBC. And, you know,

03:19:26.520 Pierre Polyev cannot do it alone. Yes, I hope he wins. I hope he wins the government just so that

03:19:30.240 he can do one thing, and that is defund the CBC. But we have to have something to replace it. We

03:19:35.040 have to have a professional, serious news organization that can do the work. That is

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03:19:54.540 emailed to you every morning. Get all kinds of exclusive content and podcasts as well. And

03:20:00.140 tonight we're offering a very special feature. You will see in the bottom corner of my screen,

03:20:03.660 there's a QR code. You can scan that and get access to a live chat where you can talk with

03:20:10.100 myself, with my co-founder, Kian Bextie, with our decision desk, Matt John. Ask any question that

03:20:15.600 you might have about the election, about your writing, how votes are coming in, what the polls

03:20:21.100 are looking like, any question that you might have. We have also exclusively to our paid subscribers

03:20:26.640 a spreadsheet. A spreadsheet? Why am I trying to sell a spreadsheet? Well, you know, this has got

03:20:32.600 all of the data if you're a political nerd like me you want to know all the numbers you want to

03:20:36.200 see all the writings all the seats you want to see what the projections are saying what different

03:20:39.880 projections from different models are saying where did the vote go in 2021 you have all that

03:20:44.520 data at your fingertips we're offering it over to our paid subscribers so head on over to judo news

03:20:49.560 there's a a tab on the page called chat you can just go ahead and hit the chat button and the chat

03:20:55.480 will appear for you on subsac and you can join the conversation we are having a lot of fun on there

03:21:01.960 are making our predictions. Kian Beksi gave a very specific projection on there earlier today.

03:21:08.740 And I have to say, when I saw it, I thought, you know, this might be a little bit too optimistic

03:21:13.120 from our friend Kian Beksi. You know, his dad is running as a candidate in this election. He's

03:21:18.040 going to become the MP in all likelihood down in southern Alberta. And so I thought, you know,

03:21:23.540 maybe Kian is just seeing the country through rose-colored glasses. And yet here we are, 1.00

03:21:27.920 After the results came in in Atlantic Canada, Conservatives are performing above expectations, blowing those polling numbers out of the water. So if you're like me and you were quite skeptical of those polls, I think you've been vindicated. That's not to say that this election is in the bag and the Conservatives are definitely going to win. There's still a lot of the night is yet to come. We have a lot of results that will come in.

03:21:51.860 And, you know, will this whole election come down to the 905, the area around Toronto, Greater Toronto?

03:21:58.840 I'm not sure. I think a lot of it will also depend on what happens in Quebec.

03:22:03.460 I think that in order for there to be a pathway for the Conservatives, the bloc must overperform.

03:22:09.500 And I think they might. I thought that Yves-Francois Blanchet, I didn't know much about him before this campaign,

03:22:14.200 but he did really impress me during the debates.

03:22:16.760 I thought that he had the most pointed jabs at Mark Carney. He did the most damage to Mark Carney.

03:22:22.840 He raised cultural issues like immigration that seems like a lot of the other candidates didn't

03:22:27.300 want to touch. So, you know, I'm still holding on hope. I'm still optimistic. Let me know what you

03:22:33.220 think. Let me know in the chat whether you think that the polls are right, whether you think the

03:22:38.340 polls are wrong and how wrong. Right. That's the other question, because the margin of error on

03:22:42.900 any poll is two to three percent so the poll could be off by two to three percent in either

03:22:47.280 direction meaning if if the poll has conservatives at 39 and the liberals at 42 the liberals could

03:22:53.540 be down two to three points so down to 39 the conservatives could be up two to three points up

03:22:58.120 to 41 meaning it could be either way and i have kian bexty back on the line with us kian how's

03:23:05.260 the night going for you any any news to report the uh surge that we had uh we have some updates

03:23:12.480 The surge that we saw Pierre Polyev have on Polymarket has now crashed back down to the baseline that we saw from this morning at about 20%.

03:23:21.220 But that's not all.

03:23:22.500 There's actually some good news for Pierre and supporters of the Conservative Party.

03:23:27.100 In Central Nova is a riding that I think is quite interesting to take a look at.

03:23:32.040 It is coming up here with, it's Sean Fraser's riding for background there.

03:23:39.200 He is a huge Liberal Party brand standard, even of Justin Trudeau's cabinet.

03:23:47.000 I think he was one of the fellows who wanted to go spend some time with his family and then he came back.

03:23:52.020 But he might not be. I don't know about that.

03:23:54.800 But Bryson Jenkins, the Conservative candidate running against him, this stalwart of the Liberal Party,

03:24:01.940 he is actually set to upset Sean Fraser.

03:24:05.360 So by over 400 votes, it's just 2%. So it's razor thin margin. But we're seeing with 150 out of 229 polls reporting that the Conservatives are leading in central Nova. We're not going to see a call on that specific riding made until far later into the night, because in that situation where it's so, so razor thin, and it's an upset, something that wasn't, I don't think, predicted even by the Conservative Party themselves to happen.

03:24:33.320 They're going to wait until the advance polls are in.

03:24:35.620 And the last poll is called so that they can actually be certain.

03:24:39.360 Is Sean Fraser just going to be shown the door by voters, even though he wanted to come back in a Mark Kearney government?

03:24:47.360 It looks like voters are showing in the door.

03:24:49.480 It's a little bit early.

03:24:51.000 It hasn't been called by Juneau.

03:24:52.620 It hasn't been called by the CBC decision desk either, I should note.

03:24:57.180 So we will see how that writing goes specifically later in the night.

03:25:01.000 That's one that I'm definitely going to be watching.

03:25:03.980 Along with St. John Kennebacchus, that is the one that we were trying to watch the numbers on early in the night,

03:25:09.960 saying that if the Conservative Party got more than 40%, then it would be a minority situation.

03:25:15.400 Right now, we're seeing the Conservatives trail by 6% in that riding for that benchmark that we were looking for,

03:25:22.100 for them to at least hold the Liberals to a minority.

03:25:25.600 They're not making that goal right now.

03:25:27.860 They're short by 6% of the vote.

03:25:29.540 Now, one thing that we're seeing across eastern ridings in rural eastern ridings specifically is the Conservatives are doing very well.

03:25:38.400 It's the metropolitan areas that they're not really succeeding in.

03:25:42.000 And we're going to see if that comes and bites them where it hurts in Ontario and in Quebec.

03:25:47.480 Once those ridings in Ontario and Quebec start reporting, we'll be able to see a more full picture.

03:25:52.700 But while they're outperforming expectations in rural ridings in eastern Canada, we're wondering, is that potentially going to hurt the models that we're projecting that there was even a sliver of hope for the Conservative Party?

03:26:08.360 because if if their vote is not distributed efficiently across the country as it is

03:26:12.920 appearing to in eastern canada there's a question as to whether or not the conservatives can break in

03:26:18.440 uh in uh in toronto and

03:26:38.360 .

03:27:08.360 .

03:27:38.360 .

03:28:08.360 .

03:28:38.360 .

03:29:08.360 .

03:29:38.360 .

03:30:08.360 .

03:30:38.360 .

03:31:08.360 Thank you.

03:31:38.360 just not reflecting this compare rally to rally uh mark carney in toronto to pierre polyev in

03:31:45.000 edmonton it's just not even remotely similar so do you see the polls as being accurate what do you

03:31:50.680 what do you what could the flaw be or or are the polls right you know is is mark carney on his way

03:31:57.160 cruising to victory well we had a stop by mark carney in our riding and it was a very uh subtle

03:32:05.640 kind of 65-person event versus, I think, the bigger rallies that you're seeing Pierre Poliev

03:32:11.240 attract and the energy and the people lining up around the block and, you know, willing to come

03:32:17.720 hours before just for the chance to hear one of his speeches, be part of the energy. I think it's

03:32:23.840 night and day, it's black and white in terms of how they're approaching the campaign. I think the

03:32:28.940 distrust in polls is natural because we sort of have these dated systems where what are they using

03:32:36.740 phone calling how many people are picking up their phone from these random numbers like I don't think

03:32:42.580 it's really getting at the heart of sort of the silent majority of conservatives that aren't

03:32:48.060 really tuned into giving their voting preferences on these so I think there's got to be some kind

03:32:53.880 of innovation and you can't just have an online poll either but when you look at the demographics

03:32:58.940 these boomers these older generation are tend to be liberal and the younger people the people with

03:33:04.560 families the younger generation is really uh wanting to adopt more conservative ideas and

03:33:12.140 the platform has really been resonating with that demographic and what's interesting is the

03:33:17.160 conservatives have put out very early in the campaign their big ideas of cutting taxes uh

03:33:22.700 completely blowing up the bureaucracy in terms of the consultants and how they're going to do the

03:33:28.360 one-for-one rule of reining and spending. So that stuff was announced early on. The entire platform

03:33:35.540 wasn't wrapped in a bow until a little bit into the advanced polls, but the bones were there of

03:33:41.240 what the conservatives were going to do. And Polyev, even in recent days, announced what his

03:33:45.400 first 100 days would be. Here's the plan of the implementation of the type of legislation he would

03:33:51.100 bring in let's build the homes let's fix the budget let's stop the crime and here's how I'm

03:33:55.200 going to do it we're ready we're willing and we're waiting for Canadians to have their say in this

03:33:59.900 election so I think that those type of things matter because people are just so tired of

03:34:06.220 you know to me it's fascinating that people describe Carney as sort of this like you know

03:34:14.220 blue liberal where he's he has this sort of aura of oh I'm an economist I'm going to rain things

03:34:21.080 in. But then when you look at the platform he presented, it just blows the rails off of even

03:34:26.500 Trudeau's crazy debt spending and deficit financing. So I think his honeymoon is going

03:34:33.420 to be over soon. I hope it ends tonight. But if it doesn't, I think his honeymoon will end soon.

03:34:40.300 And we need to have these new faces in the conservative bench in place to really hold him

03:34:45.700 to account because I think he's going to make a lot of errors and continue to stumble if there

03:34:51.580 is anything but a Conservative government come tomorrow. Do you think that it's realistic to

03:34:57.720 expect Pierre and Yves-Francois Blanchet to actually create a functioning minority government

03:35:05.520 or is it in the case of the Conservatives majority or bust? You know Stephen Harper did

03:35:11.500 work with the Bloc famously in the early days of his tenure, but it didn't last long. So if it's

03:35:18.220 a minority situation, are we going back to the polls quickly, or do you think that there could

03:35:22.440 be some sort of long-term agreement with the Bloc and the Conservatives in the same way the Liberals

03:35:28.000 had it with the NDP? Well, just judging by the leaders' debates, I think Blanchet said that he

03:35:34.980 would come to the table with the leaders, and as long as there's things that the Quebecers that

03:35:41.120 he represents can get behind, I think he would play ball. And I mean, I guess we're going to have

03:35:46.480 to see how the numbers roll in. But I frankly think anything's possible. You know, we've,

03:35:50.880 we've seen the liberal NDP coalition govern for so long and do so much damage that anything is a

03:35:58.100 step up from that. So if the conservatives do have to, you know, have a bit of an agreement going to

03:36:04.380 get some of our big, bold, transformative ideas in there, you know, that's a lot better than having

03:36:10.880 Carney as our Prime Minister. So I think it will be exciting to see where those seats come in.

03:36:16.880 It is unfortunate that, you know, we're sort of having a discussion if the NDP will even have

03:36:22.000 official party status. I think if they were a real alternative, you know, those three-way seats would

03:36:28.400 have been a bit easier for the Conservatives because, you know, you do have the collapse of

03:36:32.960 the NDP generally favouring the Liberal Party. But yeah, the fact that we have so many looking

03:36:40.000 at the clock to the seat count tick up uh just below the screen are changing yeah you're right

03:36:45.600 the conservatives are moving up so as the liberals polls are closing across the country

03:36:50.420 as uh as we speak polls are starting to close and we're starting to get results as far as the

03:36:57.000 prairies i'm not sure if these are advanced ballots that are coming in or not but i think

03:37:02.980 it's safe to say that Alberta is going decisively conservative. The riding that I'm in right now

03:37:10.520 of Bow River has the first vote results come in. The first poll, one of 221. And David Bexty is

03:37:19.820 sitting at 93% of the vote, if you can believe it. It's pretty crazy to see the difference.

03:37:26.700 you know we're we're picking apart percent by percent maybe tenth of a percent out east

03:37:32.620 and then you just see these blowouts in the prairies and it's it's you know at you're you're

03:37:38.620 from alberta so you know this but it's hard to relate this to our colleagues uh in the media and

03:37:43.740 in politics as well out east exactly what it's like to be in the the the most conservative places

03:37:51.420 in this country you you hardly even need to go door knocking to win a campaign here which of

03:37:55.980 course makes the campaigns out east jealous i remember when i was an intern a political intern

03:38:00.620 uh they were teaching you how to campaign uh back when i was younger they were they were very jealous

03:38:05.580 and they thought that we were just we we were incompetent political operatives frankly because

03:38:09.740 all we needed was like a pizza party to win an election uh but obviously out where you're

03:38:14.780 campaigning right now it's a little bit of a different story um where it's going to be pretty

03:38:19.100 tight i think but uh you know i i i'm just hearing from the back room that we have candace coming 1.00

03:38:24.620 back on here soon. She might come on the screen here at any moment. But while we're wrapping up

03:38:29.920 here, do you have any last words to say to our viewers and to Canadians about where you think

03:38:36.120 the campaign came from and where we're at now? Well, one thing I like to say is, you know,

03:38:40.820 we've got the Conservative Party, but then we also have the Conservative movement. So having

03:38:44.500 Conservative media, having Conservative institutions to really help change the future of Canada is

03:38:49.820 what we need to do going forward. We can't just rely only on the Conservative Party. We need to

03:38:54.080 have all the other pieces in place so i'm glad to see uh kian you taking this initiative and uh

03:38:59.840 doing the results in the decision desk here i think it is also interesting you're talking about

03:39:04.560 how in uh alberta you know we can have uh really strong efforts but there is a race in the

03:39:10.240 nomination process so we do get fresh faces and it's great to see david bexty uh i don't know if

03:39:15.920 you've called it for him yet i think we are actually preparing to call the race for david

03:39:20.000 bexie right now uh it is the graphic coming on screen shortly uh there it is david bexie will

03:39:30.580 be the next member of parliament for cow uh for bow river in alberta it's the first race that

03:39:36.600 we're calling here today with an overwhelming majority uh i am i'm thrilled uh because i know

03:39:44.620 that david is going to be a wonderful member of parliament that is that is a wrap for the

03:39:49.200 campaign for him uh i i can see the campaign here is not shocked by the results i'm looking sort of

03:39:56.040 at them now but it is official that is uh david bexie will be the next member of parliament for

03:40:00.600 bow river joining a few new conservative mps from alberta as you mentioned the nomination process

03:40:06.160 really is the election in this part of the country uh it doesn't really matter which liberal runs

03:40:11.160 doesn't matter which ndp candidate runs uh it is all about the nomination and they're usually tough

03:40:16.440 thought um since it was a little bit of a uh surprise election i think there were some

03:40:21.800 appointments that were made by the conservative party especially in areas like calgary confederation

03:40:26.440 where they appointed jeremy nixon and then in northeast calgary where there wasn't time for

03:40:31.240 a nomination race or whatever reason they decided to appoint those candidates but in in the cases of

03:40:37.160 nomination i mean william stevenson i believe his name is he ran a really tough race where he

03:40:42.760 actually ended up beating an incumbent uh i believe which is not common but it does go to

03:40:47.880 show that there is a pretty healthy uh democracy in alberta even though the liberals are not really

03:40:53.400 in contention in rural alberta um we're just waiting on our back room to throw candace back 0.89

03:40:59.080 on the screen um amber if you do have to go i don't want to hold you i want to be respectful

03:41:04.520 of your time i'm just going to go through some writing results here as we start seeing results

03:41:09.640 come in in Ontario. We have Perry. Oh, and we have Candace here. Candace, we're just talking

03:41:15.000 that we just called the race for my dad's riding in Bow River. I saw. Congratulations,

03:41:21.700 Kian. Man, you must be excited. I am thrilled. It's just, as I said, the room is not surprised

03:41:28.660 at all. But the numbers are starting to get serious here. We're seeing 36 for the Liberals,

03:41:36.980 27 for the conservative party uh and the block is sitting at 12. now i'll note about the block

03:41:42.500 what we're watching with our models uh if they exceed 23 seats we're expecting the conservative

03:41:48.580 party to have a very good night now they're at 12 right now and we'll see how that goes if they

03:41:55.140 dip below 20 the block uh it makes it very easy for the liberal party to start forming a majority

03:42:01.140 government so we'll see how that goes throughout the night but right now you can see the numbers

03:42:05.220 they're growing. And for that majority government number, we were talking about this at the start

03:42:10.540 of the stream, Candace, it's 172 that any party needs to make a majority government. Now that

03:42:18.180 includes a speaker, and the speaker would be breaking ties if it was that close, razor thin.

03:42:23.940 So I'm expecting a minority government right now. The way things are turning out, we'll see exactly

03:42:30.020 how that goes. But Amber, I do want to thank you for your time. I appreciate you coming on. It's

03:42:36.300 always great to talk to you. Good luck in your campaign, and we'll see you when you're back

03:42:39.900 in God's country in Alberta. Thank you so much. Great to see you, Amber. I didn't get to say hi,

03:42:45.480 but I heard you're working out in my neck of the woods in the 905, so best of luck to you in that

03:42:49.860 campaign. Absolutely. Thank you, and congratulations, Candice, on this wonderful broadcast and this

03:42:55.560 program. Thank you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Okay. So I guess this is where it's all going to come

03:43:02.440 down to. I don't know if you made the announcement, Kim, but the polls have closed across most of the

03:43:08.860 country. So we now have Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta, all the polls closed

03:43:15.200 at the same time, 9.30 Eastern time, 7.30 Mountain time. And the results are going to come in fast

03:43:21.720 and furious. The Conservatives did overperform in Eastern Canada, but just because they did well in

03:43:27.560 the rural parts of Atlantic Canada does not necessarily mean that that will translate

03:43:32.180 into rural Ontario. We know that in order for there to be a pathway for victory for Pierre

03:43:39.080 Polly and the Conservatives, the Bloc must perform well. We're looking at the need for upwards of 25, 0.62

03:43:45.600 possibly 30 or more seats from the Bloc, and if we don't see that, the path for victory becomes very

03:43:51.260 hard it's going to come down like i just said to amber ruddy who's working on a campaign out in 0.96

03:43:56.140 new market aurora it will come down to the 905 it will come down to these outer suburbs of greater

03:44:03.260 toronto and how these voters will decide for the future of our country it's frustrating for many

03:44:09.820 that a small group of people get to determine the outcome of election after election after election

03:44:15.340 but here we have it i would really like to bring matt john and the decision desk into the

03:44:20.380 conversation so to the control room if we could get matt john on that would be fantastic here he

03:44:26.300 is now okay matt we haven't talked to you we need we need the information um what are your updates

03:44:32.140 give it to us here well hopefully um elections canada's site has crashed so that's uh that's

03:44:38.860 good timing on their part as most of the country uh closed i will say i would uh i'd look at a

03:44:43.900 couple things just to pull pull the viewers back to the atlantics uh there's still a riding in

03:44:49.500 newfoundland that has not been called yet that the conservatives are leading in uh very close but if

03:44:54.860 they win that would be a pickup there's also another riding in nova scotia central nova

03:45:00.460 that the conservatives are leading in over sean frazier uh still but again very close uh with a

03:45:06.220 large amount of advance vote and then on the on the negative side we talked about uh south star

03:45:11.580 st margaret's which is rick perkins writing the writing where there's no ndp candidate he looks

03:45:15.900 to be down now by about four or five hundred votes maybe a bit more than that as stuff comes in so

03:45:20.300 it's not looking great for him there but uh if we pick up center no or this if the conservatives

03:45:24.940 pick up central nova then uh that would make up for potentially losing uh mr perkins seat

03:45:30.860 when i look back oh sorry no i was gonna i'm gonna move on but why don't you continue what

03:45:35.660 you were saying i was gonna move to ontario so i want you to i want you to touch on quebec because

03:45:41.500 Because I was just telling the audience that my belief is that the Bloc has to win at least

03:45:45.540 25 seats for there to be a pathway for victory for the Conservatives.

03:45:48.900 That was just kind of a rough guess, though.

03:45:50.320 You have the numbers at your fingertips.

03:45:51.980 I mean, you can correct me and make it more specific.

03:45:54.920 Well, interestingly, my number for the Bloc over under is 25.

03:45:58.780 If they're over 25, then I think it's not going to be a great night for the Liberals 0.98

03:46:02.960 in Quebec.

03:46:03.440 If they're under 25, then some of the public polling we've seen that indicated the Liberals

03:46:07.980 doing well in Quebec might be accurate.

03:46:09.940 it uh at the moment it's still very early but i haven't seen any writings in particular where i

03:46:14.980 would have thought the block should be doing better uh the writing that kian struggles to

03:46:20.100 pronounce which i will not uh attempt to pronounce uh flipped back to the block and so that's uh that

03:46:25.700 looks like it's a hold for them i i want to give it a shot what is the writing someone someone said

03:46:29.940 this one i'll make a i'll make an attempt to pronounce it the first word is gasp to say outside

03:46:35.780 of that there's just no hope the third word i'm not going to attempt at all okay all right we'll

03:46:44.980 just move on then i don't want to embarrass myself very poor british columbia french here but um

03:46:50.740 okay let's move on to uh ontario then yeah so ontario obviously early time uh lots of early

03:46:57.620 stuff reporting uh the gta is starting to come in a bit i can see some of the more liberal writings

03:47:02.340 in the GTA are coming in, as I would expect. I would note very early results in Thorne Hill,

03:47:09.020 York Centre, which is a riding, I'm sure people are watching, potential flip to the Conservatives

03:47:14.620 if they're having a good night. That is Roman Babber, who was a member of the Progressive

03:47:21.500 Conservative Caucus in Ontario. He got removed from caucus for being an outspoken critic of

03:47:26.300 COVID lockdown policies. He ran for leader of the Conservative Party against Pierre Paulyov

03:47:31.280 loss and then now he's uh running as a candidate just just for that context so he it looks like

03:47:36.480 he's leading in that in that writing is that what you're saying so only one poll reporting but uh

03:47:41.200 he is uh he is up uh 60 to 40 which is uh always better to be up than behind uh and then um if i

03:47:48.920 look across to another potential uh swing riding markham stoville again very early one poll reporting

03:47:54.680 but the conservative up there as well um uh those are some of the writings that i would start to

03:47:59.980 watch. But again, very early in Ontario as I'm just clicking through some of them here

03:48:04.320 and still not a lot reporting. I would also, again, just to caution folks when they're looking

03:48:12.040 at these things, the amount of advance poll vote in some of these ridings is so substantial

03:48:16.220 that until we think that that advance vote has started to come in, it's very difficult to make

03:48:21.740 a call on some of these ridings. We have some breaking news to throw to here from the riding

03:48:28.680 of bose quebec our decision desk is prepared to announce something we're we're just getting ready

03:48:37.320 to play it maxime bernier has been defeated uh in probably one one of the writings that he was

03:48:57.400 hoping to win if he was going to turn the uh people's party of canada into a serious contender

03:49:03.720 in this election uh the results are probably if if uh supporters and campaigners from the ppc were

03:49:11.560 being honest with themselves probably would have been expected uh and the conservative candidate

03:49:17.320 that will win in both is jason grillo uh he's sitting at 60 of the vote share he's going to

03:49:24.040 take home a majority of that riding. It's an interesting riding because the Berniers have

03:49:30.060 run that riding for a long time, back when they were in politics. I suppose Maxime is still in

03:49:34.780 politics. But when they were in the House of Commons, it was Maxime Bernier's riding for a

03:49:38.320 very long time. And their family was member of parliament representing it for two generations,

03:49:43.040 I believe. And now that is not the case. And it looks like Maxime will not be going to Ottawa

03:49:48.540 as either the member of Parliament for both,

03:49:53.220 and it's yet to be seen if he will resign as leader of the People's Party of Canada.

03:49:58.900 They notably have not had a leadership race in a very long time.

03:50:03.280 People comment, they say that the PPC is the Maxime Bernier party,

03:50:07.940 and it remains to be seen if the party can operate without Maxime Bernier.

03:50:13.340 If Maxime can't win in the riding that he represented back when he was for the Conservative Party,

03:50:17.740 He also couldn't win in Manitoba.

03:50:22.740 What's interesting about the People's Party of Canada is that their policies resonate with a large part of the Conservative Party base, but they haven't been able to turn that into votes.

03:50:31.280 Whether that's because voters don't believe that they will actually be able to win, or if they think that the threat of the Liberal Party is just too much to risk going to any alternative other than the Conservative Party establishment.

03:50:44.260 It remains to be seen. And the results, but I suppose the results speak for themselves. It is unlikely that the PPC will form, will win any seat in this election tonight from what we're seeing here.

03:50:58.380 I speak to a lot of conservative supporters who say that they like the ideas of the People's Party, but they just don't understand the purpose of it.

03:51:05.080 Like, when you have a leader like Pierre Polyev, who is the real deal, it's true blue, actually true blue, and he wants to push the country in a more conservative direction, the need for a right-wing protest party, it just doesn't seem very evident.

03:51:20.900 And I have a lot of time for Maxine Bernier.

03:51:22.860 I think that he is a very passionate, sincere person, but I didn't understand the campaign strategy of going on.

03:51:29.340 And I mean, it was interesting to see him on American podcasts, and I wish that Pierre had done a little bit more of a more selection of podcasts and bigger podcasts as well.

03:51:37.720 But I didn't really see him doing much out there.

03:51:41.400 And at this point in time, it just seems like anything getting in the way of stopping the liberals to, you know, the average conservative voter just doesn't really make sense.

03:51:51.720 Let's go back to the polls, Matt.

03:51:56.540 Are we getting anything else in?

03:51:58.600 And can you help make some context of the numbers at the bottom of our screen?

03:52:01.600 So we currently have this is the numbers.

03:52:04.380 Are they are they leaning or are they called?

03:52:07.060 And can you walk us through the 55 for the conservative, 77 for the liberals?

03:52:11.020 Looks like NDP may have just won their first seat.

03:52:13.780 So if you could provide some context on those numbers, please.

03:52:17.320 Yeah, those are those are ridings where the party is leading.

03:52:20.800 We may not have called the writing, but the party is leading there.

03:52:24.500 I would note that the NDP sitting at one seat in the entire country that they're currently leading in is a fairly bad result for them.

03:52:35.640 I'm not even sure which riding that is. I can't even pick it out quickly.

03:52:39.300 But the fact that we're now having almost the entire country reporting and they're only leading in one riding is pretty bad for them.

03:52:47.380 That would portend a bad night for them.

03:52:50.920 on the on the uh conservative and liberal side as you start to see some of the west come in you'll

03:52:58.320 start to see that cpc number uh go up and then as that gta comes in we'll start to see how that

03:53:03.960 impacts the lpc number um and hopefully that block number at 11 as we start again to see more

03:53:10.040 writings report in quebec look we should see that uh we should see that creep up um hopefully we

03:53:15.460 can make some more calls soon but elections canada's ground to a halt in terms of reporting

03:53:20.420 results at the moment. So hopefully they will like get their act together and we'll be able to

03:53:24.760 continue to update folks accordingly. Well, it's one of those interesting things we were talking

03:53:28.680 about earlier in the broadcast, which is that if the election is close, it will be a very long

03:53:34.320 night. If the polls are right and the Liberals are going to walk away with this thing and it's

03:53:38.660 going to be a five, six, seven point lead, we should find out fairly quickly. So I don't know

03:53:44.200 if elections Canada's dragging their feet because they're overwhelmed by the number of votes that

03:53:48.580 have to count i mean they could have predicted this um or if this is an indication that things

03:53:52.500 are tightening up what what do you think kian well canada's famous uh for being much faster at uh

03:54:00.980 coming to a decision after the polls especially when you compare them in the united compare us

03:54:07.220 in the united kingdom and even the americans quickly because we're so distributed uh that

03:54:12.500 we count locally uh and there's not too much screwing around thing that i do want to point to

03:54:17.380 and just draw our attention back

03:54:19.400 to the very easternmost corner of this country

03:54:22.360 in, well, maybe not quite the most east,

03:54:25.340 but very east, Central Nova, Don Fraser.

03:54:28.360 This riding is turning out to be extremely important.

03:54:31.800 Pollsters put him at around 90%,

03:54:34.640 99% chance of being reelected,

03:54:38.780 this Liberal candidate, Sean Fraser.

03:54:40.780 And it is looking like he will lose his riding

03:54:43.240 to the Conservative Party,

03:54:44.420 which means if the Conservative Party steal this

03:54:46.500 when pollsters were saying there was a 99% chance

03:54:49.060 that this Liberal incumbent was going to be sent back

03:54:50.900 to Ottawa, well, the Liberals are going

03:54:52.900 to be having a very, very rough

03:54:54.960 night, especially whether they win or

03:54:56.920 lose. This was a pretty

03:54:58.600 safe seat for the Liberal Party, I think, and

03:55:00.640 correct me if I'm wrong,

03:55:02.920 but Bryson Jenkins, I

03:55:04.880 don't think, had high hopes coming into

03:55:06.740 tonight, the Conservative candidate there,

03:55:09.160 but he is, and I'm just

03:55:10.800 going to do some mental math, he's 200 votes ahead

03:55:12.940 right now, so it could flip the

03:55:14.840 other way 160 polls out of 229 polls are reporting and he's ahead by just 200 votes but that is uh

03:55:23.420 you know you only need to win by one and saying that that sean fraser had a 99 chance of winning

03:55:30.860 tonight this is razor thin for him given that given that prediction from pollsters so it is

03:55:36.000 safe to say that the pollsters were wrong about what was going to happen today it just depends

03:55:41.140 on how wrong uh we're gonna see and find out at the end of the night i suppose just to uh give

03:55:47.460 you some further contact on central nova uh the uh the juno model had um mr jenkins at uh for uh 39

03:56:00.180 of the vote and he's currently on uh 47 so yeah so even with that with our model being a little

03:56:06.500 bit more uh optimistic for the conservatives uh he's even outperforming that so uh let's see where

03:56:11.780 that comes in when that when all the votes are counted but he's uh he's really outperforming uh

03:56:15.940 what i think anybody expected him to do so the interesting thing is that like we're saying

03:56:21.060 they're outperforming especially in these key ridings that are really interesting but then

03:56:24.420 you look at the numbers and you see lp uh liberal party of canada at 86 and the conservative party

03:56:29.300 at 64. i think 64 seems high honestly so i think that that does mean that they are doing pretty

03:56:35.060 well. But if they're doing this well, can you explain why they are not in the lead right now

03:56:41.820 and how, as we go across this country, things need to pan out for it to end up with a conservative

03:56:47.180 W? Yeah, I would say that the early stuff that gets reported is all the liberal stronghold,

03:56:53.080 right? So you've got the Atlantic's coming in and you've got Quebec coming in. The liberals are

03:56:58.260 going to have to build a lead in seat count coming out of those regions. And then we see where the

03:57:03.440 battleground of ontario plays out as uh the western uh uh region starts to report in you're

03:57:09.700 going to start to see that cpc number coming up um and we'll we'll hopefully be seeing that gap

03:57:15.060 close um if they're having a having a good night i think right at the moment uh i would say the cpc

03:57:21.680 is outperforming um the uh the pollsters and the models and uh and we should start to see that

03:57:27.060 close but the the gta is probably going to tell that tell that tale in about an hour yeah it all

03:57:32.120 comes down to the gta uh we know how alberta is going to vote we know how manitoba is going to

03:57:36.680 vote we know how the bc interior is going to vote vancouver will be interesting uh richmond

03:57:41.460 especially is one that i'm watching pretty closely uh we have john rustad waiting speaking of british

03:57:48.300 columbia uh waiting to come on and i'm hoping he'll join us here and and maybe you might have

03:57:52.960 some questions for him as well uh if we could bring john rustad on the show here he is the

03:57:58.160 leader of the opposition in British Columbia, leader of the Conservative Party.

03:58:02.260 He famously ran a campaign that almost defeated the NDP.

03:58:07.980 I bet he was wishing that he was running the campaign now after this insane NDP collapse that we've seen here.

03:58:16.640 John, Mr. Rustad, could you please tell us how, you know, with the NDP having done a pretty good job at reforming,

03:58:26.100 I mean, I shouldn't say good job, but they did a good enough job to form government in

03:58:31.140 British Columbia.

03:58:32.280 Why have they collapsed nationally when they were just able to form a government in one

03:58:36.200 of Canada's largest provinces?

03:58:38.340 You know, that's a very good question.

03:58:39.420 And I really put it down to the NDP federally just having a very poor leader, running a

03:58:47.800 very poor campaign and not being able to connect with people.

03:58:50.540 And when you look at the NDP in British Columbia, the NDP party in British Columbia, they're

03:58:54.740 actually more aligned with the federal liberal or you might say that the federal liberal is more

03:58:58.880 aligned with some of the some of the components of the NDP party the two have really come very

03:59:05.320 close together and so I think ultimately that's just something that we're seeing in British

03:59:10.100 Columbia and it'd be it's going to be very interesting to see these results tonight

03:59:13.440 yeah so when you're looking at the results in British Columbia which are the last polls to

03:59:20.460 to report in this country, which areas are you expecting a Conservative breakthrough to happen?

03:59:25.840 I'm really looking at Vancouver Island. I'm expecting to see some pickups for the Conservatives

03:59:30.580 there. Ellis Ross, somebody that I work closely with up on the North Coast, I think they're going

03:59:36.420 to win there. Some of the seats that I think are going to be quite interesting, you know, a seat,

03:59:41.120 for example, in Delta with Jesse Sahota that's running there. I think that's going to be a very

03:59:45.900 tight race and the polls were showing the Liberals should win that seat. And I disagree with that. I

03:59:51.060 think that's going to be a really close race. You know, Carolyn Finley is going to, I think she's 1.00

03:59:55.360 going to pull that off. I think she'll win that riding. There's one riding in the Okanagan I'm a

03:59:59.220 little concerned about in terms of it. But, you know, I think really when you look at the campaign

04:00:04.480 that the Conservatives are running, their efforts on the ground, they've been doing such a great

04:00:08.500 job in Eastern Canada in terms of outperforming. You know, I'm pretty optimistic at this point that

04:00:14.480 the Conservatives are going to pull off and hold some of the seats, as well as do those extra

04:00:19.760 pickups that they need in British Columbia to help them with potentially forming a majority here.

04:00:24.400 That would be, the Conservatives forming a majority government tonight would blow everyone's

04:00:29.780 expectations out of the water. But, you know, coming from British Columbia, it's interesting

04:00:33.520 to hear your take on that. I'm also curious to hear your thoughts on Vancouver Island, which is

04:00:39.340 set to change entirely. There might be one riding that the NDP are able to clutch onto,

04:00:46.000 but given the record of just one seat that we're reporting them leading in right now,

04:00:50.720 that might even be up for grabs. Can you explain the dynamic, the political dynamic of Vancouver

04:00:56.980 Island and how are the Conservatives possibly breaking through this area that is not typically

04:01:02.600 known to be a Conservative stronghold? I mean, this is where the Green Party does well in.

04:01:06.520 Yeah, and that'll be interesting to see whether the Green Party can even elect

04:01:09.120 anybody in this election. But we had some great breakthroughs on Vancouver Island during our

04:01:15.180 provincial election. We won North Island. We won Courtney Comox. We almost won another two or three

04:01:21.000 ridings on the island. And there's a conservative movement that's there. And what it boils down to

04:01:25.520 is a lot of people are just, they're tired of the fact that they have been left behind. They're tired

04:01:31.340 with the poor economic performance. People just want a job. Obviously, affordability is a huge

04:01:37.400 issue. And I really think that the conservative message and movement was connecting closely with

04:01:43.080 people. And ultimately, you know, when you look across the country, if the younger vote comes out

04:01:48.300 in the numbers, the Conservatives are going to win this. They're going to win a majority government.

04:01:52.800 And I think there's no question in my mind. And so the outperformance that we've seen in

04:01:57.860 Atlantic Canada and the good work from the campaign there gives me a lot of hope, I think.

04:02:02.960 Yeah. So could you could you tell me a little bit about what it is that the Conservative Party said to British Columbians that resonated with them? You're on the ground. You know what British Columbians need for the rest of the country who's out east watching their polls close right now. What is it that that made British Columbians turn out for Pierre?

04:02:24.080 I mean, we saw those record rallies in the interior.

04:02:27.540 They were absolutely insane in size.

04:02:30.320 What was it about Pierre that was speaking to them in a way that he was not speaking to people across the country?

04:02:38.100 Specifically to British Columbians, what issues mattered to them that Pierre was talking about?

04:02:42.120 I mean, in British Columbia, and I think there's similarities, obviously, in other provinces.

04:02:46.420 But I mean, when you look at crime, when you look at the mental health issues, the drug issues, you know, people not feeling safe, when you look at the really poor economic performance that we've had in British Columbia under an NDP government and, you know, obviously with the Liberal government federally, that people are, you know, are really wanting that change.

04:03:06.080 They want to see that difference. And so I think, you know, the Liberals are going to are going to do well in a in a number of ridings in the very heavy urban population.

04:03:15.060 But I think the Conservatives are going to surprise in a lot of areas in British Columbia.

04:03:19.400 Like I say, Vancouver Island, you know, it may come down to that as to who ends up forming a government, whether it's a minority or majority.

04:03:25.940 And like I say, I'm optimistic when you look at areas where Pierre had come out, did rallies and the thousands of people that came out.

04:03:33.280 Like that was unheard of four or five years ago, certainly in previous elections.

04:03:37.800 No conservative would ever have even dreamed of being able to have that.

04:03:41.540 So Pierre has been able to connect with people in British Columbia.

04:03:44.620 And, you know, that was something that we saw during our campaign as well.

04:03:48.360 Obviously, it's interesting when you look at the conservative platform, there was a lot of things in the federal conservative platform which were very similar to things that we ran on.

04:03:56.040 And so I was very pleased to see that and certainly how that is connecting with voters in British Columbia.

04:04:03.280 Yeah. So one thing that a lot of people have been focusing on in this election is how provincial leaders have been either supporting or have been absent from this race.

04:04:14.400 You know, we saw people like David Eby, who's he's a new Democrat, was it seemed like he was supporting Mark Carney.

04:04:23.480 You know, he had very friendly meetings with him.

04:04:25.360 They walked arm in arm into your legislature when they were having meetings between premier and prime minister.

04:04:31.180 These things just don't happen between conservative premiers and liberal prime ministers during an election.

04:04:37.800 That kind of photo op is something that Daniel Smith, for example, would run away from.

04:04:42.820 But David Eby was doing that.

04:04:44.880 So on the flip side, with Pierre being the conservative leader and there being conservative leaders like Doug Ford, Daniel Smith and yourself in British Columbia,

04:04:52.600 what role do you see you guys playing in turning the dial nationwide and in your province when it comes to federal voters?

04:05:01.180 You know, it's a very interesting question. Obviously, there's going to be a lot that needs

04:05:04.740 to be thought about going forward from this election. And, you know, one of the things that

04:05:09.240 I've talked about a lot is the fact that we need to think about how we renew our confederation. I

04:05:13.620 mean, this is the greatest country in the world. We've got a lot going for us, but we have a lot

04:05:18.860 of problems because of, you know, hopeless governments that have mismanaged things. And so

04:05:23.760 hopefully we can see that change. But I think, you know, a lot of times when it comes to a federal

04:05:28.820 campaign and you know obviously we're not directly aligned with the federal conservative party

04:05:32.660 federal leaders don't necessarily want provincial leaders to get involved because sometimes that

04:05:39.780 can actually create problems for them in their campaign and so for my part you know i respected

04:05:44.800 obviously i was out supporting the conservatives and the conservative movement in in british

04:05:48.820 columbia but i tried to play the role that wasn't really too front and center however you know we

04:05:54.820 did mail out to all of our membership in the province, asking them to vote for the

04:05:58.900 Conservatives. We came out and did some key endorsements and showed that kind of

04:06:03.020 support. Lots of our MLAs worked on campaigns and were involved in trying to

04:06:07.140 get our MPs elected. And so, you know, we've done what we can provincially in

04:06:11.780 terms of it. But it's a delicate balance, of course, for a federal leader because

04:06:15.340 they've got to play to a much broader audience across the country, not just to

04:06:19.920 the local side. And Pierre's campaign, of course, was no different than most

04:06:24.040 campaigns in terms of how they like to play that well uh mr russet i want to be respectful of your

04:06:29.840 time it's uh really great to have you on uh the show tonight uh we might touch base with you later

04:06:36.560 depending on what's going on but uh i i take what you've said so far about the conservative party

04:06:42.680 performance and we will see uh if it turns out to be true that maybe maybe they are having a better

04:06:47.720 night than what uh you know i i'm used to being treated poorly by electoral results you know so

04:06:52.800 we'll see we'll see what actually ends up happening once the polls close in bc well you know when we

04:06:57.440 looked at the uh when we looked at the polling results and some of the internal polls stuff that

04:07:01.660 we did uh and that i i looked at it was a lot tighter than what the public polls were suggesting

04:07:06.580 and i thought i think we saw that play out in atlantic canada uh and i think it's going to be

04:07:11.140 very interesting to see how that plays out um in ontario and like i say i'm looking for some gains

04:07:16.120 for the conservative party in british columbia uh in terms of like it would be wonderful to see

04:07:20.640 those additional gains in British Columbia as being the seats that could make a difference

04:07:24.480 in terms of who's going to form the next government. But thanks for having me on. I

04:07:27.880 look forward to maybe chatting again later. Yeah, right on. Thank you, Mr. Rostat. I appreciate it.

04:07:32.360 We are going to throw to Sue Ann, who is at the Liberal Party headquarters with a report for us

04:07:40.340 for Juneau News, where she's sort of describing what is going on at the Liberal Party headquarters.

04:07:46.160 We'll throw to that now, please. Standing in front of the Ottawa venue where

04:07:50.300 Liberal leader Mark Carney's election night event is to be held and I have

04:07:56.760 watched journalists from Reuters, from Washington, from the Times of London,

04:08:01.700 from Slovakia, from Germany, from Italy, from Spain walk in and be accredited to

04:08:07.940 cover the event but little old me from True North is not allowed to enter. In

04:08:13.820 fact I was told by a gatekeeper from the Liberal Party that I am not on the list.

04:08:20.720 well folks i am actually on the list it's called the d list it's called do not disturb

04:08:26.800 mark carney with hard questions do not pass go and do not collect any sort of liberal

04:08:37.040 we're we're uh working on getting that video from sue ann she is at the liberal party convention

04:08:42.800 we're just with uh you know i couldn't even tell you the reason why that wasn't working but

04:08:47.760 we'll try to get that to you and the back room just so you know you can cut me off at any time

04:08:51.840 because i really do want to hear from sue ann and i don't want her sitting out there for too long

04:08:56.320 um i do want to point out about roman babber though we're going to look at the numbers here

04:08:59.920 uh in in york center so this is one of those writings that's just outside of downtown toronto

04:09:04.000 for people who don't know the area york center roman babber is sitting at 515 votes that's 59

04:09:10.320 of the share right now which is a pretty big number but but again that's just with the first

04:09:15.280 poll reporting neighboring riding etobicoke north natalie lead is leading by just 10 votes

04:09:22.160 and then the other side of that willowdale james lynn is leading and uh upsetting the liberal

04:09:29.040 incumbent ali assai i believe her name is these are just really really early numbers of a single

04:09:35.200 poll uh full reporting we're going to try and see if we can get candace back on here because i want 1.00

04:09:40.480 want to ask her, from her perspective, she knows Toronto really well, Candace, would you be able

04:09:46.080 to tell me just what would it mean for the Conservative Party if York Centre flipped for

04:09:52.520 Roman Babber and Yara Sachs was left out in the cold? You're just muted right now. I'll let the

04:10:00.940 back room fix that so that we can hear you. Can you hear me now? Yep, there you go. What would it

04:10:07.040 mean for the Conservative Party to have Roman Babber in the House of Commons? And what would

04:10:12.340 that mean across the country if the party was able to break in in that way? Well, you know,

04:10:17.360 there's an interesting thing that happens in Toronto, right? Like you have Melissa Lanceman,

04:10:20.880 who is able to win basically in a landslide right in the middle of Toronto. So it really just

04:10:25.560 depends on the demographic of the specific riding. Riding's that have heavy Jewish populations tend

04:10:31.040 to vote more Conservatives. That's what benefits Melissa Lanceman. And it's also happening for

04:10:35.940 I think he would be a fantastic representative as part of Pierre Polyev's team. He was the most principled conservative in Doug Ford's caucus. That is why he left Doug Ford's caucus and sat as an independent because of the Orwellian lockdowns that we experienced in Ontario.

04:10:52.240 He was one of the lone voices of sanity in the Ontario legislature in Queen's Park.

04:10:59.900 And I think that he is a fantastic representative.

04:11:02.220 I hope that he continues to gain ground in his Toronto seat.

04:11:08.760 Now, we do have some unfortunate news to report here, folks.

04:11:13.760 The CBC has called it, and we at Juno News are ready to make the call as well.

04:11:18.840 We don't know whether it will be a minority or a majority, but it looks like the Liberals have won the election.

04:11:26.920 Yes, that is right. Mark Carney will continue to be the Prime Minister.

04:11:32.020 He has been elected as those votes are rolling in, as the numbers come in from Battleground Ontario.

04:11:40.140 It seems that the people of central Canada have spoken, and they have decided that our country needs another term of Liberals.

04:11:51.080 It's just a matter of whether it will be a majority or a minority.

04:11:55.880 Our decision desk is saying that they are still unsure, but they are confident that it will be a Liberal government.

04:12:03.480 That's interesting, and it's going to be a question of how well they'll be able to work with the Bloc, 0.90

04:12:07.980 because you can bet that the Conservative Party will not be supporting this government

04:12:12.200 and the NDP might not have anyone to support them with.

04:12:16.280 It has just been, if anything, today was not an endorsement of Mark Carney.

04:12:21.340 It was an absolute rejection of the incompetent political management

04:12:26.200 and maneuvering of Jagmeet Singh, who will go down in history 0.99

04:12:29.660 as one of the most inept, moronic losers to have ever operated in the House of Commons. 1.00

04:12:36.520 We could have called this two years ago when we saw him standing behind some of Trudeau's most stupid decisions. 1.00

04:12:42.900 You know, I could see if Mark Carney was operating this government and it was it was his record that Jagmeet Singh was negotiating with trying to pull him to the left. 0.99

04:12:50.960 That's one thing. But after scandal, after scandal from the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh stood there beside Justin Trudeau with the supply and conference agreement so that he could get his pension locked in.

04:13:05.560 Well, now Canadians have told them, told him and his party exactly what they think about that kind of behavior. He put himself before the country. He put himself before his party. And then he flushed his party down the toilet so that he could prevent Pierre Polyev from forming government back when he was pulling, you know, and that was his own decision. And he'll have to live with this, with his record of absolute moronic political operation.

04:13:31.140 I couldn't agree more and it was really shocking Kian to hear earlier this week or I guess it was 0.78

04:13:36.880 last week now Jagmeet Singh come out and say that he did it all on purpose he did it all intentionally

04:13:41.580 that he didn't want to prop up the liberals but he had to stop Pierre Polyev and the conservatives

04:13:46.560 and that is why he prolonged parliament and continued to prop up the government I don't

04:13:50.500 understand why this man is so self-important that he believes that he has the right to block the

04:13:55.980 democratic will of the Canadian public that he was there to block a conservative when they were up

04:14:02.000 ahead and in the polls. I mean, look down at the bottom of your screen, folks. The NDP are sitting

04:14:06.720 at three seats, three seats. So a big part urge that allowed for the Liberal Party to be, as Juneau

04:14:14.480 News has declared, the winner of this election. They have 139 seats. They need 172 to get to a

04:14:20.180 majority see the conservatives are doing their own with 95 but the total and utter absolute collapse

04:14:27.320 of the NDP has absolutely been the story of the election and I'm hoping to get on here shortly

04:14:35.380 I believe he's in the back room waiting to come on Brad how are you doing today can you tell us

04:14:42.320 where are you and what are you seeing right now yeah thank you I'm in Calgary and you know things

04:14:49.460 I would rather come on, not just after you guys called this election from the decision desk, but all that being said, from Calgary here.

04:14:57.920 And, yeah, happy to be here.

04:15:00.340 Do you think that the Liberals are going to be able to work with the Bloc Québécois?

04:15:04.040 So I should introduce you to our audience.

04:15:06.380 Brad Tennant, you are a conservative strategist, longtime operative, both inside and outside the party, helping campaigns and helping the conservative movement broadly across the country.

04:15:16.400 So you know really well what it takes to win a campaign, but not just winning a campaign, what it takes to actually govern when you are there, when you are in the halls of power, the negotiating, the bartering that you have to do with other parties.

04:15:30.360 Can you give us some color here?

04:15:32.620 What is Mark Carney going to have to do to maintain a government with the Bloc Québécois?

04:15:39.060 Well, I think that he is going to have to give up a fair bit of concessions.

04:15:44.360 But I think coming out of this, too, you've got to look at it from the bloc's perspective.

04:15:48.920 What will the bloc want to do?

04:15:50.720 And I think the bloc, we haven't seen the final results of what they're going to have.

04:15:55.420 But I would think that the bloc is going to be at what has been their recent low of overall results here.

04:16:02.520 And with that, I think the bloc is going to be aggressive in wanting to reassert their political position in Quebec.

04:16:09.860 So I would think first, Mark Carney is going to be dealing with a Bloc Quebecois that wants another chance at an election that wants to, you know, rebuild its position, some of which looks like they lost Mark Carney this election.

04:16:26.100 And Mark Carney, I think with the Bloc, we've known Quebec is quick to look for some concessions and everything there.

04:16:33.840 But first things first, I think the Bloc is going to have to work on rebuilding here.

04:16:39.860 Well, I am being told by our decision desk that the popular vote from the block is actually

04:16:45.860 looking quite good.

04:16:46.860 It's just not being met and matched by the by the seat numbers.

04:16:51.720 We talked earlier about how for there to be a pathway for the conservative victory, the

04:16:55.440 block needs somewhere between 25 and 30 seats.

04:16:57.520 It looks like they're kind of ending up.

04:16:59.100 It just jumped up from 19, I believe, up to 21.

04:17:02.960 The block did just fine.

04:17:04.860 I think, again, the real story of the election is just a total and utter collapse of the

04:17:09.660 NDP, left-wing Canadians saying enough, we don't need to split, we don't need to give this party

04:17:15.560 our vote. Many people on the left choosing to consolidate around Mark Carney. What do you make

04:17:21.380 of that, Brad? I think that's exactly it. Jagmeet Singh gave Canadians nothing to believe in.

04:17:27.920 He worked with the Liberals on everything. He helped them pass their last year and a half in

04:17:32.660 office. And when it was very, very clear Canadians were done with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals,

04:17:39.400 Jagmeet Singh was his only remaining ally.

04:17:41.540 Even when Trudeau's own caucus members were attacking him,

04:17:45.120 the NDP was making sure that they were going to hold the government together.

04:17:48.600 And I think that's really the story.

04:17:50.380 And I also just think the NDP, Canadians gave them a huge opportunity in 2011

04:17:55.260 and have to varying degrees in other places,

04:17:58.840 but they just haven't delivered for Canadians.

04:18:02.920 And I think with that, their vote became less and less solid

04:18:07.120 and to the point that we're seeing now and uh they're leading in three seats some of those

04:18:11.680 seats i don't even expect them to win um but it's been it's been very very tough for the ndp but

04:18:19.680 they also spent years building to get here okay just for the audience we have brought matt john

04:18:25.200 our in-house decision desk uh reporter i guess i don't know why i don't think you're a reporter but

04:18:30.960 the numbers guy that's reporting are from our decision desk. So Matt, you weren't on the call

04:18:37.980 when we made the call that the Liberals have won this election. Can you walk us through that,

04:18:43.240 please? Yeah, I think it looks like they are doing better in Quebec than we had anticipated,

04:18:50.520 despite the fact that the bloc is starting to creep up close to that 25. But the Liberals

04:18:56.940 to be doing better in quebec i would also say early indications from ontario gta specifically

04:19:02.460 they look to be at least holding if not doing a little bit better than expected um if that's

04:19:07.980 the case then i think it's going to be a very near run thing on minority or majority i think

04:19:14.060 our model right now is probably putting the liberals on about 167 and i think as you noted

04:19:19.580 earlier they need to get to 172 for a majority let's see what happens as more results come in

04:19:25.100 from ontario as we we've seen things are flipping back and forth in some of these close writings but

04:19:29.900 uh at the moment i i think our call would be be a very close um minority um for the government

04:19:35.260 for the the liberals potentially a majority if they catch a couple breaks wow can i bring you

04:19:40.300 in here a little bit and and and can you tell us what does this mean for pierre uh and his

04:19:46.460 leadership you could see on on x online liberals were were just uh you know they were salivating

04:19:53.900 at the idea of a Liberal win, because it would mean that Pierre has to resign. There's no way

04:19:57.740 he can stay on. What are your thoughts on that? Do you think that's true? Do you think it's

04:20:01.820 different if it's a majority versus minority? Can you tell us what you think?

04:20:05.820 I think Liberals and media have never liked Pierre being in charge of the Conservative

04:20:10.300 Party of Canada. And, you know, that was very evident long before this election. That was

04:20:15.740 very evident during the Conservative leadership. And, you know, I think that they may keep up that

04:20:21.180 case and try to put these stories in there look pierre's a popular popular leader i would say at

04:20:26.620 a level that conservatives usually do not get to conservative leaders or politicians of any

04:20:32.380 stripe do not get to he's the story with these rallies is really unprecedented of how many people

04:20:38.060 are coming out in 24 48 hours notice so look i think i think that the party no matter what is

04:20:44.300 going to look at election results and decide from there but i don't think there's any question of

04:20:48.780 pierre's personal popularity within the conservative party of canada if anything i think it's grown

04:20:53.900 since um since he won a overwhelming mandate in a leadership race not long ago

04:21:01.740 i want to just go to uh the chat for a minute and um ask a question just to bring it back to you

04:21:07.580 matt and uh brad you can you can feel free to chime in on this one too uh chad still is asking

04:21:12.460 he says it's very confusing how is everyone able to call the election when the results have not

04:21:16.300 even been reported fully in ontario so matt can you take that question yeah that's a good very

04:21:22.060 good question and honestly i think one that that everybody struggles with every election

04:21:26.860 my answer to that would be you can look at trends that are emerging from certain ridings so we've

04:21:31.580 been talking a lot about ridings that are swing seats you can see the results there i would also

04:21:39.420 say that after a certain amount of polls have reported and by polls i don't mean the public

04:21:45.580 polling i mean the individual geographic districts that make up um each riding as those polls start

04:21:51.740 to report you can start to see the trend and it's it's unusual for that trend to reverse itself uh

04:21:59.100 in most canadian ridings and so as we look at at some of these ridings and we see how many of the

04:22:04.060 polls have reported there um this right this election as i've said many times it's a bit

04:22:09.020 different because of course the advanced polls are a huge portion of that um but as those start to

04:22:13.180 come in you start to get a sense of the trend and then the number just becomes too much for

04:22:17.500 for the other party to uh to have a chance to win so can you talk about how the advanced polls are

04:22:23.260 going to play and i know i've asked this question before for people who are just joining the live

04:22:27.100 stream like we had a record number of advanced polling come through or 7.4 million canadians

04:22:33.020 advanced those votes have not been counted yet and so i'm wondering how can you make a prediction if

04:22:38.460 you don't have a significant portion of what like what if it turns out that those advanced polls

04:22:43.180 were very heavily conservative so i can tell you that's something we've uh we've talked about a lot

04:22:48.780 at the decision text on on when and how to call some of these writings and uh in some cases you

04:22:55.180 can look at the amount of vote that's being reported and make a an educated guess that

04:22:59.820 perhaps the advanced polls have reported in that particular writing in other cases you can look at

04:23:05.180 the size of the lead in that writing and say even if the advanced polls came in overwhelmingly for

04:23:10.540 one party over the other it still wouldn't be enough to uh to overcome that lead um and so

04:23:16.780 i i would also note that as some of the advanced polls seem to have to come in and been reported

04:23:21.420 in the atlantics from what we can tell it isn't uh showing much of a conservative lead if any

04:23:26.220 with those voters in some cases i think it's it's showing the liberals being able to claw back

04:23:30.780 um leads that the the conservatives had built uh we'll see what that happens in ontario and uh

04:23:37.020 especially you know a lot of conversation about carl the riding of carlton pierre's riding

04:23:41.820 but with uh substantial amounts of advanced vote in a lot of these ontario writings um you know

04:23:46.700 we'll start to get a good picture pretty pretty quickly on uh did that advance vote sway one way

04:23:52.060 or the other for for either party okay well we'll have to have you back on a little later on i would

04:23:56.940 really like to once we get a bit better idea of how the exact writing broke down i'd love to

04:24:02.060 find out more about exactly which writings have been called for the liberals and around the 905

04:24:06.860 which ones were the ones that made the difference we have any friends or allies and conservative

04:24:10.860 party that have been elected ontario so we will uh hopefully have you back uh inside an hour to

04:24:15.900 go through that uh brad will i have you i wanted to ask you a question this is something that's been

04:24:20.620 and really echoed in our Juno News chat.

04:24:24.020 So folks that are watching on X, YouTube or Rumble,

04:24:28.200 we have a live chat going.

04:24:30.300 You can see that there's a QR code

04:24:31.720 in the bottom corner of my screen here.

04:24:34.940 And if you take the picture of that,

04:24:36.780 or if you just head on over to junonews.com,

04:24:38.920 there's a chat button.

04:24:40.040 You can join our live Juno News chat.

04:24:42.360 We will be responding to questions

04:24:43.920 and reading out interesting comments in real time.

04:24:47.380 Matt John from our decision desk

04:24:49.040 will also be answering questions

04:24:50.180 If you have technical or very specific questions about your writing or some of the polls or some of the numbers that are coming in, you can feel free to ask those questions and we are responding.

04:24:59.300 But Brad, one of the themes that I am seeing very heavily in our chat, sad to say, is first of all, people saying that, you know, I can't really imagine a future in Canada if the country is just going to continue to vote for failed liberal policies.

04:25:12.900 Maybe it's time to leave the country. Another one is the West is ignored. Alberta is not welcome in this country.

04:25:19.040 We don't see a future in Canada as Albertans. 0.99

04:25:23.640 I'm wondering, you know, from your perspective in Calgary, what's going to happen with this news of another Liberal government?

04:25:31.320 And, you know, what are you hearing from people in and around Alberta and Conservative politics about, you know, what's next?

04:25:38.660 Yeah, I think it varies. I think, obviously, there was almost people could sense a relief when Pierre was polling so high.

04:25:45.440 There was a sense of hope and optimism because I think this part of Canada really just wants to be included.

04:25:53.700 And, you know, I think a lot of that hope went to Pierre being successful in this election.

04:26:00.060 As far as like going forward, I mean, everybody's going to have a bit of an opinion.

04:26:06.040 I think, you know, sites like Juno will follow this as closely as anybody.

04:26:10.760 But you're really going to have to see how stuff like that develops.

04:26:13.900 There's going to have to be more results favoring Canada's resource sector, favoring Canada's agricultural sector.

04:26:21.760 There's going to have to be a drastic move on from kind of Trudeau's government.

04:26:25.740 Seeing Mark Carney win gives you very, very little hope for that.

04:26:29.860 But on stuff like this, you just really genuinely have to see how it will play out.

04:26:35.660 And, you know, I think Albertans are going to be frustrated with this.

04:26:39.620 I think they were frustrated in 2019 and 2021 as well.

04:26:45.120 But again, Alberta before, like there was one separatist MLA elected in a by-election in Drumheller in the late 80s.

04:26:55.160 Outside of that, you haven't seen it really get any kind of on-the-ground traction.

04:27:00.100 I think there would still have to be more to go.

04:27:02.340 But look, I'm optimistic.

04:27:03.980 I think Premier Daniel Smith has a solid hold on the United Conservative Party here.

04:27:08.380 the conservative movement in Alberta, I think results will show is really as strong as ever.

04:27:14.300 So there's there's some things to build from, too. Interesting. Well, that is a story that we

04:27:18.880 will be following very closely here at Juno News. Brad Tennant, thank you so much. It's been such a

04:27:24.680 pleasure talking to you. Thank you for your time this evening. All right, folks, thank you for

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04:28:13.180 from our sponsor i i i do want to throw to commercial but i do want to i do want to explain

04:28:18.480 you know why juno news is so important i obviously have bias you know you have bias as well i mean

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04:29:14.280 we're still waiting to determine if this is going to be a minority majority so we're going to stay

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04:32:11.060 All right. And we are now live with the food professor, someone who I met on Twitter, actually

04:32:19.840 on X, I suppose. One of the most interesting people when it comes to thinking about food

04:32:26.280 processes in this country, affordable food, healthy food, and how policy from the Trudeau

04:32:33.300 and now Kearney government is impacting the price of food on grocery shelves, which we

04:32:38.260 know was one of the biggest issues in this campaign was affordability and when when it's

04:32:42.100 affordability when you're concerned about affordability it's not just the uh the price

04:32:45.400 of your home it is the price of the food that you put on your table so uh thanks for joining us here

04:32:50.320 today i i have a question for you i'm curious how you think this is going to play out now uh with

04:32:56.000 negotiations with donald trump in the next few months with mark carney becoming the next prime

04:33:00.880 minister of canada or at least staying on as prime minister of canada sorry the crowd here

04:33:05.600 cheering for me now. Not for me. In the room, you might hear them getting quite loud. I'm not sure

04:33:11.660 what was just announced. But I would like to hear from you. How do you think Mark Carney is going

04:33:16.180 to navigate this as it comes to food security in Canada, supply management, and dealing with the

04:33:21.960 Trump government down south? Nation, I've been following you guys for a while, by the way. You're

04:33:29.480 doing great. It's great to have independent voices out there. As far as things go, obviously

04:33:37.360 it's a little too early, to be honest. We don't know whether or not Mr. Carney will

04:33:41.580 have a majority, and that's really a huge asset at this point. If he doesn't have a

04:33:48.700 majority, then he will have to negotiate with the bloc, probably. And in my view, that's

04:33:56.420 probably worse than dealing with a majority liberal government because we saw what happened

04:34:02.800 with this deal with the NDP for four years. And that's why we saw our debt increase, deficits

04:34:11.520 increase as well. I suspect that with the Bloc, it could be worse because the Bloc only 0.98

04:34:18.020 thinks about Quebec. It doesn't necessarily think about the national debt, doesn't think

04:34:23.060 about any fiscal responsibilities whatsoever and certainly would discourage any development

04:34:30.260 related to the oil and gas sector, which is critical for our country, our independency.

04:34:37.120 So I honestly, at this point, given that a Carney government has been declared, I actually

04:34:44.260 am hoping that Mr. Carney will get a majority so he can actually have a clear mandate moving

04:34:50.580 forward especially when dealing with donald trump yeah it's going to be interesting to see

04:34:56.420 exactly how things pan out and and hoping for a liberal majority is quite the statement to say

04:35:03.000 because you know and but i you know i understand it's not necessarily the outcome i wanted but

04:35:08.380 at this point i mean we have to think about uh how to limit damages as much as possible and if

04:35:16.900 we're looking at an extra four years with a liberal minority willing to sell out our next

04:35:22.880 generation yet again i don't know about you but i don't think it sounds good so can you describe

04:35:29.780 for our viewers what does selling them out when it comes to food policy uh you know supply management

04:35:34.700 is the first thing that comes to my mind uh and it's something that the bloc will not negotiate

04:35:38.300 on and it's something that mark carney has said is integral to the structure of canada uh do you

04:35:44.000 buy that literally when it comes to the price of milk. Do you think that that's going to be a

04:35:49.260 sticking point with Donald Trump? I just want to get a bigger picture of how Mark Carney is going

04:35:55.440 to impact the price of food from your perspective going forward if he's left either checked or

04:36:00.380 unchecked by the block. Yeah. So if you want to start with supply management, I do think that

04:36:08.140 Mr. Carney will have the same approach as Mr. Trudeau, to be honest. He will say out in public

04:36:15.060 that the supply management is not touchable, but he will end up doing something with it,

04:36:24.060 granting the Americans with more access. And of course, in return, we'll probably have to 0.91

04:36:30.140 compensate dairy farmers or poultry farmers and egg farmers with billions of dollars.

04:36:36.500 And, of course, when you understand supply management, farmers aren't losing anything, really.

04:36:42.040 It's just it's been argued out there.

04:36:44.560 So farmers can actually get more money from taxpayers, which is really unfortunate.

04:36:49.620 So that game will likely continue.

04:36:52.540 That game will cost taxpayers more money.

04:36:54.940 It will actually make more sectors, the SM5, so the supply manager sectors, overcapitalize,

04:37:02.060 impacting other sectors like the hog sector, cattle, wheat, barley, canola.

04:37:09.380 All these sectors are undercapitalized, looking for some scalability.

04:37:15.540 But if farmland becomes too expensive because of dairy farmers and whatnot,

04:37:20.480 it's much more difficult to expand.

04:37:22.980 And you have to think about the next generation.

04:37:24.960 I mean, how can you convince the next generation to take over agriculture?

04:37:28.620 The reality with the Trudeau government and now with the Kearney government is that you are dealing with a highly urban-centric government.

04:37:39.260 And urban-centric governments are not friendly to agriculture.

04:37:44.800 Is there anything from the Kearney platform that was appealing to you as an industry expert?

04:37:53.680 Actually, so this weekend I had the pleasure to talk to the current Minister of Agriculture, Cody Blois, who was just re-elected tonight from the Liberal government.

04:38:03.740 And I actually reviewed all platforms.

04:38:07.320 I did tell him that I actually believed that the Liberal platform was the most detailed when it came to agriculture and food, to be honest.

04:38:16.440 The Conservative platform was very simplistic, easy to understand, but very simplistic.

04:38:21.460 and it lacked detail. The challenge, of course, and you probably know where I'm going with

04:38:26.720 this, is that will they deliver? That's the thing. Of course, the Liberals are the only

04:38:33.220 party looking at processing as a very important node of the supply chain, and I agree with

04:38:39.400 that, but they only plan to invest $200 million. You can't even build a new plant, a new federally

04:38:47.440 licensed plan with $200 million. They are looking also at compensating farmers with

04:38:53.120 agriture stability. They're increasing funding for agriture stability. But again, in their plan,

04:39:01.380 it doesn't really acknowledge the fact that agriture stability is a non-popular program

04:39:05.900 with farmers. Farmers don't like the program at all, so they're not adhered to it. So whatever

04:39:11.300 the liberals will be doing it won't help many farmers at all so so there's the program looks

04:39:18.660 good for the liberals but when it comes to execution i i i have my doubts i i want to

04:39:27.300 introduce to our viewers erica broody's who is the senator in waiting for alberta and i think

04:39:33.860 you're going to be waiting a little bit longer uh i think so here on on the results do you think

04:39:40.340 mark carney is going to respect the wishes of albertans and appoint you as the next senator

04:39:44.900 of alberta or are your hopes not super high well his uh predecessor appointed all the vacancies

04:39:51.700 and most of those people have you know over a decade at least till they hit 75. so not sure

04:39:59.380 that that's going to happen anytime soon uh whether it was just drew or mark carney and

04:40:05.540 And even Pierre would have had to wait a little bit.

04:40:07.420 So yes, we're senator-in-waiting ellipses longer

04:40:11.420 is the new panel.

04:40:13.700 Can you tell me a little bit about these results

04:40:15.380 that you're seeing?

04:40:16.220 Is it what you expected?

04:40:17.780 Were you thinking there was gonna be a conservative upset?

04:40:21.420 What do you make of things?

04:40:23.200 Yeah, so I will say, and thanks for having me on.

04:40:27.220 I'm at Western Standard filming live tonight.

04:40:31.300 So I will say we went across the panel

04:40:34.260 And I sounded like the pessimist saying liberal majority, not because I wanted it, but that's

04:40:40.360 how just my gut was feeling.

04:40:43.080 And then we saw Atlantic Canada results come in and it really looks strong for the conservatives,

04:40:50.000 you know, going up in ridings, looking pretty strong across, you know, in some early pools.

04:40:56.840 However, like I think the reason why I felt.

04:41:04.260 .

04:41:34.260 .

04:42:04.260 .

04:42:34.260 .

04:43:04.260 .

04:43:34.260 .

04:44:04.260 .

04:44:34.260 .

04:45:04.260 .

04:45:34.260 .

04:46:04.260 he ran a really good strong campaign as far as i'm concerned i think he ran a great campaign i

04:46:18.260 think he's been campaigning for two years he's you know where i think they're doing strong right now

04:46:23.780 is because he got different people motivated to come out and vote different demographics for our

04:46:28.820 party younger as well as maybe people that had never voted before like he his rallies are

04:46:34.500 something to look to as getting people off their couch and into the system so he has made you know

04:46:42.420 some milestones unfortunately it's just not given a w today yep interesting okay we're gonna

04:46:51.620 of this who should be um should be hopping on here in a second we're joined by sue ann as well 1.00

04:47:01.460 uh we're seeing some applauses happening here in the room that i'm in i don't know if you guys can

04:47:06.100 hear that uh the crowd is actually excited for the news that we've seen here with mark carney

04:47:11.780 my screen has rosie barton on so i'm not clapping for anything

04:47:15.140 yeah well thank you so much for joining us today guys i really appreciate it we're going to cut to

04:47:22.720 a quick commercial break um thanks for having you guys appreciate it bye-bye thanks see ya

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04:49:54.240 Hey folks, we are back. And so it is not the results that we were thinking we were going to

04:50:02.120 get, not the result that we were hoping we were going to get, but we will live on to fight another

04:50:06.160 day here at June is why independent media is so important because we need to be there on the

04:50:12.460 ground to hold this government account, to hold them accountable, hold them to account, to make

04:50:17.660 sure that Mark Carney doesn't continue to get away with it. So interesting, Matt, what we saw

04:50:21.560 from the polls and again we always take polls with a grain of salt i'm going to ask you how

04:50:25.880 closely things are lining up to what those polls were showing but it seemed to me that the more

04:50:31.640 that canadians got to know mark carney the more the sort of fade uh the shine faded away and so

04:50:37.960 he had a huge uh bump post being selected as a liberal leader and as the campaign went on

04:50:44.680 things tightened up i know there's a lot of comparisons i saw a lot of people in the chat

04:50:48.200 talking about how it's very similar to what happened in 2024 in the u.s with the democrats

04:50:52.920 how they had joe biden he was not popular he was heading towards a historic defeat and then at the

04:50:58.600 last minute they yanked him out replaced him with a new candidate and at first kamala harris had this 1.00

04:51:03.560 sort of like shiny new car effect it was like wow isn't this interesting uh this new person that

04:51:08.440 could become our president and people seem to like her and then as soon as she sat down for 1.00

04:51:12.360 interviews as soon as she started going into like unscripted territory it was like wow this person

04:51:17.800 is really extremely left-wing and really out of her depth when it comes to just being able to have a 0.98

04:51:24.120 firm grasp of the issues. And it was at the very last minute, I think, that enough Americans saw

04:51:30.440 through it that they decided they couldn't go with that. They decided to put their fortune with

04:51:35.960 President Donald Trump, for better or worse. Now, in Canada, Mark Carney in some ways seemed to

04:51:42.440 like game the system i mean he he called the shortest election period possible under law

04:51:49.080 he must have known that he wanted to just do this quick and dirty fast and as fast as possible

04:51:55.080 with as little as scrutiny as possible before his you know finances even needed to be disclosed

04:52:01.080 under parliamentary rule and you know i can't have a wondering had the election been you know

04:52:07.000 two three weeks later maybe this would have been a different result so curious your thoughts on

04:52:11.640 that and also like how are things lining up with the polls at this point yeah i think he made a

04:52:18.840 he made a tactically smart call in uh in calling the election as quickly as he did i think you'd

04:52:23.960 see that the polls uh even the ones that were favorable to him started pulling back in the last

04:52:29.160 week to 10 days and that closing of the gap uh in those you know polls is probably what's leading

04:52:36.040 him to be right on that edge of majority minority at one point early on in the campaign the polls

04:52:40.680 are predicting things like 200 Liberal seats. So certainly as the campaign went on, he got less,

04:52:49.320 and he got more well-known with Canadians, he actually got less popular. In terms of how the

04:52:54.440 polls are performing, overall I think you'd start to see that the sort of that 44-40, 43-40 Liberal

04:53:02.920 Conservative vote overall is starting to emerge. We'll see where that ends up as the West starts

04:53:08.680 to come in more i would note in ontario right now that it's much closer than most of the polls

04:53:13.880 predicted i think it's last i checked something like two point lead for the liberals and that's

04:53:18.360 that's i i had i don't think i saw any public uh polls that that called it that close again let's

04:53:24.600 see what happens as toronto starts to come in uh more that that will probably widen it out but it's

04:53:29.480 certainly closer than i would have expected i think it's also interesting to note in ontario that

04:53:34.440 some of those ndp uh areas that uh delivered them seats uh the conservatives are actually doing much

04:53:40.840 better and so i'd note uh london fanshaw riding that the ndp currently hold uh last i checked the

04:53:47.160 conservatives had a had a small lead there i'd also note two of the windsor widings one where

04:53:52.040 brian mass massey's the ndp incumbent i never thought i'd live long enough to see conservatives

04:53:58.520 leading at any point in time in an election in windsor but the last i checked both of those

04:54:03.080 those Windsor seats had Conservatives leading. Again, I would probably expect those to flip as

04:54:07.060 the night goes on. But it's interesting to note that with the NDP decline, it isn't just causing

04:54:13.080 Liberals to win seats. There are a few interesting examples where the Conservatives seem to be

04:54:17.600 benefiting. That's really very interesting. Now, is that that's entirely because of the NDP

04:54:24.040 collapse that the Conservatives are actually winning in Windsor? Is that right?

04:54:28.360 Yeah, it looks to me, again, I'd have to really post-election go through poll by polls to really

04:54:33.040 get the sense of what's happening there. But when you see that NDP number and an incumbent riding

04:54:37.740 below 20 early on in the night, you start to wonder what the heck's going on. I think there,

04:54:45.320 let's see where that ends up. But I'd be really interested to look into post-election

04:54:49.800 in some of these more working class NDP ridings in Ontario. Did we see NDP votes moving conservative?

04:54:57.400 I think people would know, you know, in Oshawa, as an example, that's a very working class NDP writing for a long time and then flipped conservative in the mid 90s and into the 2000s.

04:55:07.580 And you'd wonder when when would that realignment maybe start to happen in some other NDP working class writings?

04:55:13.380 Oh, that's so interesting. OK, well, can you walk us through other parts of Ontario?

04:55:16.960 Like, I mean, what's happening in the 905? I know the rest of our decision desk are here saying that, you know, we're calling it.

04:55:25.320 it's not going to be a majority government the liberals will not get to a majority we can i

04:55:31.160 think definitively say that there is no path for a majority it will be a liberal minority which

04:55:55.320 so there it is folks juno news can confidently declare that it will be a liberal minority

04:56:04.640 government mark carney will become the prime minister but he will have to form some kind of

04:56:08.600 coalition or at least get a few opposition mps i don't know how close it will be it looks like it

04:56:14.340 might be very close remember 172 is the line that they would have had to cross to get to that

04:56:19.740 majority so it looks like maybe we'll have to form a coalition with the ndp the bloc

04:56:25.140 maybe the Greens, I don't know. Matt, what do you think might happen?

04:56:30.620 Yeah, that's going to be an interesting conundrum for him to be in. With the NDP being so low,

04:56:38.700 we'll see where they end up, but the Liberals and the NDP together may not have enough seats

04:56:43.860 to hold the balance of power in Parliament. And if that's the case, you're going to start to see

04:56:49.040 the Liberals looking to parties like the Bloc to have to prop them up. My guess is, not being an

04:56:55.540 expert in either Bloc or Quebec politics, but my guess is that the Bloc would be reticent to form

04:57:00.840 a formal coalition of any kind with the Liberals and more likely try to hold them hostage on a

04:57:05.700 vote-by-vote basis, which could cause some interesting moments in the future. Great. And

04:57:11.420 we wanted to bring in Sue-Ann Levy, our reporter with True North, who is on the ground. Sue-Ann,

04:57:16.800 we had we saw your report outside the liberal convention or sorry the liberal headquarters

04:57:21.520 how frustrating that they were letting in all of these foreign reporters they wouldn't even let 1.00

04:57:25.600 in a veteran toronto sun retired reporter who's now with true north uh i hear you're at the

04:57:32.320 conservative uh hq now why don't you give us a little bit of a scene set or tell us what the

04:57:37.200 mood is like there and describe how you're feeling tonight yeah i was banned from the liberal um

04:57:45.120 event venue i was told i was not on the list and uh you know basically asked to leave while i

04:57:52.560 watched reporters from slovakia and germany and um you know every country in europe times of london

04:58:02.480 uh walk in and be greeted with uh you know the the pats on the back so it it uh obviously

04:58:11.600 conservative and uh independent conservative journalists long-time journalists don't count

04:58:16.480 in the mark carney sphere of things but here i am at uh pierre polyev's uh headquarters or event

04:58:23.920 venue and we had no problem getting in greeted with warmth and collegiality but unfortunately

04:58:32.480 when the legacy media announced that uh the basically the election was over about an hour

04:58:39.360 in uh it kind of sucked the oxygen out of the room uh there's uh they're pretty somber um although i

04:58:47.200 see the results are fluctuating back and forth and i always say you know it ain't over till it's over

04:58:52.480 until the fat lady sings well that's right especially with all these advanced polls right 1.00

04:58:58.000 we got 7.4 million advanced polls they're sealed we don't know who they're for yeah sure we can

04:59:03.280 assume that they're evenly split but uh you know some of us may still want to hold up hope we at

04:59:09.600 juno news have declared that it will be a liberal minority uh suen what's what's on the agenda there

04:59:16.240 what time are you expecting to hear from mr polyev and uh you know are there are there a lot of

04:59:22.320 people there how are people feeling in the room right now well they you know they're disappointed

04:59:27.200 they fear for their country the people we spoke to are very concerned about the future

04:59:34.000 as am i and as i'm sure many at juno news are but no idea when pierre polyev might turn up

04:59:44.960 i think as the numbers come in i think it's still really really close and i'm not saying

04:59:52.400 that the cpc is going to win by any stretch of the imagination but uh you know i get really bothered

04:59:59.680 when the legacy media declares a victory you know they're hoping because they don't particularly

05:00:07.120 cbc doesn't want their money cut off so they're hoping and uh you know if they declare so it's

05:00:13.120 true isn't it candace well you know i guess stranger things have happened i mean i was

05:00:19.360 watching the 2020 U.S. election. You know, when I went to bed, it looked like it was going to be a

05:00:24.560 Republican sweep. And then all of a sudden, like two days later, with all of those advanced polling

05:00:31.240 and mail-in ballots, suddenly Joe Biden took a huge lead. And I think it was four days later

05:00:35.940 they announced it. So hopefully it won't go on that long. Hopefully we will have a definitive

05:00:41.500 answer tonight. But yeah, obviously quite disappointing. It's interesting. I think a

05:00:47.840 of liberals are painting this as sort of like the comeback of the century and like an unbelievable

05:00:52.480 lesson um but i i actually imagine liberals are quite disappointed right now i mean the ndp has

05:00:58.160 slowly collapsed so not john point that you might not even have enough combined to to make a formal

05:01:03.760 coalition uh it's going to be pretty close you can see the numbers at the bottom of our screen there

05:01:07.840 so right now it's just a leading so 159 for the liberals 10 for the ndp that would not be enough

05:01:13.120 even with that one green vote it still would not be enough as it's possible a very unstable very

05:01:18.320 short uh parliament would you could also add i i i really think so and uh you know especially with

05:01:27.360 somebody who campaigned with you know blocking and banning some of the people who asked hard

05:01:34.080 questions and a lot of things were swept under the rug uh mr carney's assets his history um

05:01:42.880 certainly his approach to anti-semitism was a big concern for my community and you know

05:01:50.560 the economy he claimed when asked about his financial plan well just trust me i'm an economist

05:01:57.040 well i have an mba and i couldn't understand a thing he said about the finances that he purports

05:02:03.840 to uh be able to oversee so uh i suspect this won't last long at all um i don't know whether

05:02:13.360 you have any feelings on pierre polyam's future i mean he he battled hard he worked hard but uh

05:02:20.640 there were so many things against him the media bias trump um the timing everything he couldn't

05:02:28.880 have had more things thrown at him. Yeah, I mean, I have to say I think Pierre has the support of

05:02:34.480 the party. I think the base is with him. I think they're disappointed by the confluence of events

05:02:38.000 that happened around him, notably Donald Trump's interference, which I've said on this broadcast,

05:02:43.040 I'll repeat it. I don't think that what Donald Trump did is forgivable. I think it was the

05:02:47.920 ultimate betrayal to Canadian Conservatives. I myself cheered him on and wanted him to win back

05:02:53.840 in November. I thought he was going to bring in a new golden era of economic growth. I was really

05:03:00.560 excited about it. And I can say unreservably now, I feel like I have a knife stabbed in my back,

05:03:05.600 that the things that he said about our country, the things that he did to Pierre Polyev are

05:03:10.400 unforgivable. It was an absolute betrayal. And we will not soon be forgetting that. But as far

05:03:17.760 as what Pierre Polyev did, I mean, we'll have to wait, I suppose, to find out what the final

05:03:21.840 numbers are, maybe Matt, John, you can jump in on this, but Pierre Polyev, you know, we're looking

05:03:27.440 down at the bottom here, 142 seats. I mean, under different circumstances, that could be enough,

05:03:33.120 right? If he's polling at 38 or 39%, that is what Stephen Harper got in the majority. So,

05:03:39.200 you know, the situation around him totally changed. But I think the reason that so many

05:03:42.880 conservatives felt like we were winning is because we were, right? We were getting the kind of

05:03:48.720 support, the kind of excitement, the kind of numbers that in any other election cycle would

05:03:53.040 have delivered a decisive election. But just because of this circumstance with the block,

05:03:57.920 or sorry, with the NDP collapsing, the block underperforming, and this shiny new liberal

05:04:03.120 leader, you know, enough, just the confluence of so many things happening at once led to this

05:04:10.320 unfortunate result. But I think, again, that the base is still with Pierre Paulyo. That's my

05:04:15.520 that's my assumption. Matt, jump in on that. Yeah, I think just that historical context

05:04:20.880 is interesting. Stephen Harper won, as you mentioned, 39% of the vote when he won his

05:04:25.360 majority in 2011. And I don't think anybody spun that as being a particularly close election or

05:04:32.000 that 39% of the vote was a disappointing result for Mr. Harper. Pierre right now is on track.

05:04:38.240 He's almost at 40. And with the West still coming in to report, it's possible he's going to

05:04:43.680 actually go over 40 percent of the vote uh if you told me uh at any point in time in the last

05:04:50.640 20 years that the conservative party was federally was at 40 i probably would have said it's an easy

05:04:55.360 majority the flip side there of course is that the ndps right now under five percent of the vote

05:05:00.320 uh again with the west uh maybe they get a bit of a bump at bc and they go over um so i'd almost

05:05:06.400 say there's a bit of a good news bad news here that uh if you told me that we were at 40 i

05:05:11.520 probably would have called majority but if you'd also told me that the ndp were under five percent

05:05:15.760 i probably would have called a massive liberal majority and so the fact that the liberal party

05:05:19.520 of canada isn't able at this point to win a majority government with the ndp essentially

05:05:25.280 becoming um on the same level as the greens or some of these other minor parties uh i think if

05:05:32.640 i was a liberal right now i would probably be uh wanting to take a pretty hard look at at our

05:05:39.760 the future of how we can win uh when essentially you're the only left of center party uh running

05:05:46.160 well i presume that the ndp will send jagmeet singh packing and select a sensible new leader

05:05:52.400 and the next election cycle will sort of be back to normal i don't think the ndp has gone forever

05:05:57.120 i mean we you don't want to call one of these parties out right like many people thought that

05:06:01.520 after michael lignaciev the liberal party were just no more and that they would never be back

05:06:05.360 and then boom all it took was a charismatic uh leader with a famous last name and suddenly you

05:06:10.720 know four elections in a row uh for the liberals so i i just presume that someone like a rachel

05:06:16.720 motley or um knob canoe or i don't know maybe obby lewis someone will come in and take over this

05:06:23.120 party and by the next election cycle they'll be back to uh 20 of the vote sorry can i just uh

05:06:30.160 sorry can i just jump in really quickly just because i'm looking at the numbers move in the

05:06:33.680 the bottom of the screen there. If you looked at the Juno model and the Juno model with the polling

05:06:40.980 that you guys did, you'd see those numbers at the bottom of the screen are very similar to what

05:06:46.560 the model predicted. So I think we should also note that not all minority governments are made

05:06:52.340 the same, right? A minority government that can't just be the NDP and the Liberals together to form

05:07:00.120 majority is a very different thing than the kind of minority government that we've we've had the

05:07:04.560 last couple of years again let's see what happens ontario still very early and lots of seats can

05:07:10.040 flip back um yeah but i think that's an interesting thing to note don't forget my own riding saint

05:07:18.000 paul's in the by-election um i went to sleep and don stewart had lost when i woke up he had won

05:07:26.280 so like i said it ain't over till it's over and and they you know the legacy media is reporting

05:07:34.100 that the liberals have gained seats when you know five polls are reported or ten polls

05:07:39.940 so it's like they're almost a self-fulfilling prophecy they figure if they report it it will

05:07:45.400 happen but you know like you say the advance vote hasn't been counted and largely hasn't been

05:07:51.740 counting. Right. I think like, sorry, go ahead, Candice. No, I was just going to go back, but

05:07:57.180 you go ahead. Go ahead. Oh, I was just going to say, I'm just, as I'm looking off to the side

05:08:01.920 here, I'm trying to look at some of these results coming in in Ontario. York region looks to be

05:08:07.020 coming in for the conservatives at a higher clip than most of the legacy media or the public

05:08:13.400 pollsters would have predicted at this point. I'd note that in there, there's some heavily

05:08:17.860 Chinese writings that last time didn't deliver for the Conservatives, and this time seemed to be

05:08:25.700 coming in a little bit better for the Conservatives. So some interesting things afoot,

05:08:29.620 and I think that's partially what's driving that CPC leading number down below is that York region

05:08:36.980 is coming in more heavily for the Conservatives at this point than was predicted.

05:08:42.260 Well, our decision desk chat is saying, don't reverse the call or anything,

05:08:46.020 but the conservative vote is going up in some surprising ways. So I do still believe that the

05:08:53.220 Liberals have won this election, but it might end up being pretty close. Matt, you said that this

05:08:57.660 was quite in line with what our Juno News projection was based on our latest poll. We

05:09:02.700 projected that the final would be Liberals with 165, Conservatives with 150, NDP with three. I

05:09:09.860 don't know how that got so low, but block at 23. So, you know, aside from the NDP number,

05:09:15.880 and then, and then if you go to our Juneau News neighbor poll, we have the liberals at 158,

05:09:21.820 the conservatives at 157. That, that might not be that far off. I mean, I don't know how many

05:09:28.180 polls we haven't included in these bottom numbers. I mean, I could try to do very quick math. It

05:09:33.500 looks like there's still 20 or so that aren't there. I guess, presumably that would be British

05:09:37.000 Columbia. But interesting to your point, Sue, and it's not it's not over yet. I mean, it does

05:09:43.400 seem pretty confident that the liberals have won the election. But, you know, it might be

05:09:48.160 incredibly close, so close that the liberals and the NDP together wouldn't be able to form

05:09:52.180 a government. In which case, I mean, if they can't combined make enough to pass a budget,

05:10:01.080 we may be heading back to the polls very soon. This may be a very short, very unstable

05:10:06.180 government. Sue Ann, thank you so much for your time. We'll probably come back a little later on

05:10:10.900 closer to when Pierre Polyev speaks, but we appreciate your work on the ground and your

05:10:15.220 reporting. I just want to say that I think that once people discover that the emperor has no clothes,

05:10:23.860 meaning Mr Carney, there may be a snap election again. So I think a lot of people

05:10:34.660 were sold a bill of goods and they may find out very quickly well i think that is probably right

05:10:43.300 juno news has another announcement former true north reporter andrew lawton has been elected

05:10:50.500 so he will be a member of parliament in the riding of elgin st tom thomas london south and

05:10:58.100 And we want to say a big, warm congratulations to our dear friend, Andrew.

05:11:03.060 We were sad when you left the world of journalism, independent reporting, and your show, The Andrew Lawton Show at True North.

05:11:09.340 I'm very proud of you.

05:11:10.340 Very excited and happy to see that you will be representing the good people in your London area writing.

05:11:17.880 Congratulations to our friend, Andrew Lawton.

05:11:28.100 wonderful news there i guess uh some sort of relining i mean it's still pretty close here

05:11:37.260 matt uh do we have any idea of what the final sort of popular vote is at this point or

05:11:42.100 we're really just seeing the numbers and the writings so yeah it looks like again i'm just

05:11:47.680 checking off to the side here it looks like uh it's narrowed rather uh significantly it's now

05:11:52.940 down to about 43 and a half to 41. Again, I'd expect there's probably a lot of Alberta,

05:11:58.760 Saskatchewan ridings that are now really starting to report. We'll see as BC comes in, obviously,

05:12:05.780 lower mainland and some of those ridings in the Vancouver area are going to deliver some big

05:12:11.880 wins for the Liberals. What I don't have a good sense of right now, but I'll certainly try to

05:12:16.660 check as night goes on, is where the city of Toronto is. I'd expect that you're going to see

05:12:22.260 some liberals doing quite well there. But I think this is another thing that I think that some of

05:12:28.820 the media were a bit lazy about in this election is talking about vote efficiency and the lazy

05:12:34.860 narrative of the conservative vote is less efficient, which was certainly true in 2019 and

05:12:40.160 2021. But as liberals started to expand their leads in urban centers like Toronto or Vancouver,

05:12:47.020 picking up NDP votes, you're going to see their efficiency should actually go down and the

05:12:52.740 conservative efficiency should start to go up a bit. Another example of that might be Alberta,

05:12:57.700 where the Liberals are probably somewhere over 25% in Alberta at the moment. That has got them

05:13:05.400 probably quite a few more votes, but not actually resulted in that many more seats. And so their

05:13:10.240 voter efficiency goes down. So I think that's another interesting thing for folks to think

05:13:14.660 about. And for pundits to opine on after this election is at the moment, I would say those

05:13:21.380 numbers below would indicate that there's a lower liberal vote efficiency in this election than in

05:13:27.680 previous ones. Super interesting. Can you walk us through some of the 905 ridings? I'm specifically

05:13:33.300 curious to find out what's happening in York, what's happening in Vaughn, what's happening in

05:13:39.360 Richmond Hill, because those were sort of the, you know, those were the battleground ridings

05:13:44.220 that this election was fought on. I'm presuming they're all going liberal, but maybe you could

05:13:47.920 walk us through some of them. Yeah, so I'm just going to look off to the side again as I try to,

05:13:52.080 as I try to read these results, but Richmond Hill South, that's a riding with the liberal

05:13:56.920 incumbent. Right now, the conservative is ahead by almost 2,000 votes, about half of the polls

05:14:02.600 reporting. Again, no way to know how much of that is advanced vote, but that's certainly a pretty

05:14:07.280 good sign uh at this point uh markham unionville uh that's a riding that um fewer polls reporting

05:14:15.200 only 75 but uh the conservative uh right now has about a 600 vote lead um uh and then if you look

05:14:23.200 up to i think you guys talked about new market aurora uh earlier in the night 80 of the 212

05:14:28.720 polls reporting so still some some ways to go there uh but the conservative candidate there

05:14:33.760 is up by about 600 votes um wow and that's with you know to note there that's with the ndp at 2.2

05:14:40.960 of the vote uh i don't think there's many conservatives in ontario who would have thought

05:14:44.880 we could win a gta riding or have a chance to win a gta riding uh with the ndp at below three percent

05:14:50.560 of the vote and what about the richmond hill uh richmond hill oak ridges aurora what about oh

05:14:56.560 Oh, yes, sorry. So, you know, that to me, 75 of the 219 polls reporting so far. And right now,

05:15:03.840 the conservative candidate is about 15, 1400 votes ahead. Again, not insurmountable with that

05:15:10.020 many polls still to come and not knowing if those are advanced polls or not. But that's

05:15:15.220 certainly a better result than most of the public polls would have predicted.

05:15:22.940 There's definitely something going on here with those numbers at the bottom tightening and the overall vote percentage, vote share tightening as well that we really need to track because this could be a much smaller liberal minority than the liberals had hoped for.

05:15:44.220 And I honestly believe most liberals probably thought that this was a majority government night, not even a minority government night.

05:15:49.960 Well, even half an hour ago, it seemed that way. And now all of a sudden, it seems like we are a closer, tighter race. It looks like we have Dan McTeague, a former Liberal Member of Parliament, to join us. Dan, thank you so much for joining the show.

05:16:04.420 Oh, good to be here. Thank you for having me.

05:16:06.680 Well, so how are you feeling? We're watching the votes come in. It seems like things are actually tightening. I mean, I know we've called it already. We said that it will be a liberal minority government. And yet it almost, when you look at the numbers, I don't know if we can throw them back up on the bottom of the screen, but people are wondering in the chat if we combine those conservative and block numbers, you know, maybe they could form a coalition government.

05:16:29.180 I mean, obviously, the party that wins the most seats gets the first chance to form the government.

05:16:34.140 But, wow, we could be in for something really interesting over the next few days and weeks here.

05:16:39.540 So what do you make of all of this, Dan?

05:16:42.380 You can remember the 45th Parliament by the number of weeks it's going to survive.

05:16:46.420 I don't see this surviving.

05:16:47.800 And I know both the Bloc and the Conservatives realize that once Orange man bad is out of the equation,

05:16:54.920 which could be several months from now, it's wide open.

05:16:57.680 the liberals have very little in which to rely on and this uh this parliament is uh is is headed

05:17:02.400 for their waste basket we've seen much shorter ones in my time as a liberal canvasser liberal

05:17:07.200 going back to 1974. i remember the 79 election uh i fully remember the shortness of the 2004 2006

05:17:14.720 period uh i don't see this problem especially given all the controversy so with everything

05:17:21.440 that we're taking into consideration i think uh this is definitely not the victory that liberals

05:17:26.320 had hoped for used fear for the second election they did it with covid last election this time

05:17:30.880 of course it was uh donald trump in paris it looks like it's not going to work and uh i wouldn't be

05:17:36.080 surprised to see the numbers tightened to you know the liberals have a very slim nine seat

05:17:41.360 minority right now uh for those change and the night is still very young and suddenly you've

05:17:46.640 got uh you know uh something that could it could easily be a situation where the conservatives

05:17:51.680 uh might even be able to form government with the help of the bloc not that i would want that

05:17:55.920 but it looks like the NDP is not going to have much of a factor either. The NDP has learned two

05:17:59.840 lessons tonight. One, they can't play footsies with the Liberals anymore and pretend that the 0.57

05:18:04.240 hate conservatives are for reason they support. A new leader, assuming Jagmeet doesn't win his seat,

05:18:10.000 is going to have to take a much more solid NDP, pro-NDP position as opposed to one that's always

05:18:15.760 buttressing the Liberals. Well, it's so interesting. It just seems like we're stuck in this really

05:18:19.920 strange moment in Canadian politics where the NDP has been wiped out as soon as they get a new

05:18:24.880 leader, I presume they'll be back, pulling it somewhere between 15-20% of the vote as usual.

05:18:30.080 I think the more that Canadians get to know Mark Carney, the less they like him, the more

05:18:33.600 all of the obvious laws that we point out day in and day out here at Juneau News become more

05:18:38.160 evident to Canadians. Dan, what do you think of the campaign that the Liberals run? I just want

05:18:44.480 to ask because it seems to me every time I turn to legacy media, they're fact-checking Pierre

05:18:48.880 Polyev and saying there's misinformation here. And then they're pointing out some minute details

05:18:53.600 like, oh, this report that was released by the federal government, well, that wasn't actually

05:18:57.460 written by the federal government. It was written by the consultants that the federal government

05:19:00.540 hires. And therefore, Pierre Polyev is pushing misinformation definitively. Meanwhile, you turn

05:19:04.960 on Mark Carney's campaign, and he's out there saying, Pierre Polyev is going to Americanize

05:19:09.960 our healthcare. Pierre Polyev is going to ban abortion. Pierre Polyev, you know, this and this

05:19:14.140 and this. Pierre Polyev wants to side up with Donald Trump. None of that is true. And I didn't

05:19:19.660 hear legacy media fact checking mark carney not at all never pointing out misinformation or

05:19:24.360 disinformation from the liberal campaign even though there's plenty of it i know and you know

05:19:27.940 you were a long time liberal and i don't know if there's much love lost between you and the party

05:19:31.260 today but it just seemed very very disturbing to see the media behave in this way it's to see

05:19:38.400 mark carney behave in this way what did you think of that it's ripped by the way i was mentioning

05:19:42.840 that this is going to tighten 155 to 150 wow i think our paid media is going to have a hard time

05:19:48.780 candace trying to get around this as will the pollsters and others who are going to have absolute

05:19:52.760 egg on their face uh we are going to an election in the next uh nine to 18 months mark my words

05:20:00.580 and uh this is not the victory that mark carney the liberals had wanted no this is uh they were

05:20:05.400 they were told that they were going to get this given to them on a silver platter and they threw

05:20:09.340 everything they could to try to make this look like it was going to be a slam dunk for them but

05:20:13.540 the reality is very very different canadians are ticked working canadians are ticked they

05:20:18.420 they're a little tired of having to pay for people out there who take it frankly a very parasitic

05:20:23.140 view of this country and they're also very concerned to think about suddenly our newfound

05:20:27.780 nationalism yeah because donald trump pointed out our weakness started slapping us around a little

05:20:32.820 bit uh suddenly they got the canadian flags up where the hell they've been for the past 10 years

05:20:36.820 they've been out burning churches knocking out uh statues uh trying to erase our history no

05:20:43.860 i think the liberal party the one i belong to by the way i'm here with bob retina downstairs uh

05:20:48.420 along with our good friends uh here at northern perspective with uh ryan and tanya who say hello

05:20:53.140 and uh we are having a great time just looking at this and saying uh this is not canada didn't

05:20:59.380 change in six or seven weeks what changed was extreme events being promoted by media

05:21:04.420 uh being promoted by pollsters being promoted by influencers who are well paid by your dollars and

05:21:10.260 mine to go out and try to push one side but you know what um the gravy train is coming to an end

05:21:16.500 it's stopping to use the old rob ford expression i can use that i won't talk about the other for

05:21:21.060 doug ford very disappointed i'm sure that he uh like donald trump don't are not getting the

05:21:26.500 results tonight that they actually wanted well it's super interesting and again i mean don't

05:21:32.420 count peer poly about folks i mean yes june news has declared that the liberals will form a minority

05:21:37.700 government but look at how tight that is and again i just i think that we are headed into a very

05:21:42.580 interesting chapter in canadian politics i mean it's already been a tremendous uh past three

05:21:47.940 months i mean just in the last 90 days think of all of the things that have happened like 90 days

05:21:52.100 ago justin trudeau was still the prime minister and christian frillon was still the finance minister

05:21:56.660 um you know i don't think those two names were even mentioned much on the campaign because it's

05:22:00.740 such distant history now but you know you you look at those numbers and you imagine folks you

05:22:05.860 have to hit 172 to get a majority or to get a coalition right so even the combined liberal

05:22:12.500 and ndp numbers on the bottom of your screen that's not enough that's not enough to actually

05:22:17.380 form government form a coalition pass a budget it's hard to see how this would function we have

05:22:25.300 keen bexie back on the line cannot show if you can hear me but uh what are you thinking at this

05:22:30.180 point in the night? Well, I'm thinking that Bow River is the most conservative riding in the

05:22:34.060 country, and it was an expertly executed campaign. Other than that, it's interesting to see what's

05:22:40.720 going on in the Calgary area. We're looking at Calgary Centre right now, which has the Liberals

05:22:46.180 leading. Lindsay Linau is, I don't know if that's a male or a female, but they are leading Greg

05:22:52.400 McLean, the incumbent Conservative. I mean, I haven't heard much from Greg McLean during his

05:22:57.080 time in office. I'm not sure if he's going to win or lose that one, but that's interesting

05:23:01.320 because currently Calgary's returning more non-conservative MPs than Edmonton. And, you

05:23:07.620 know, it's worth noting that Pierre had a actual rally in Edmonton and in Calgary, he

05:23:13.380 had a last minute whistle stop. Did that have an impact? I don't know. But Calgary Confederation

05:23:18.280 would be the other riding where Jeremy Nixon was the conservative candidate there. He's

05:23:23.240 being led by Corey Hogan, the Liberal, by almost 4%. Jeremy Nixon is a perennial candidate who's

05:23:30.120 tried time after time to win elections. He's won one in his life. And now he actually lost a

05:23:39.040 nomination campaign in Calgary and then was appointed by the party to a different one last

05:23:44.440 minute, and that is Calgary Confederation. When he was running in Calgary, Signal Hill did end up

05:23:49.080 uh turning out a conservative uh that would be david mckenzie he won with 60 of the vote but

05:23:54.760 in calgary confederation it's an uphill battle for jeremy nixon and it's going to be probably

05:23:58.760 a pretty tough night for him i will point out also george chahal a famous liberal uh the porch pirate

05:24:05.640 himself is trailing in his riding of calgary mcknight that's with only about 20 percent of

05:24:12.440 uh polls reporting so there's still 80 to come in but if these numbers hold george chahal

05:24:18.680 could be upset and kicked out of cabinet which is interesting because he was actually the liberal

05:24:24.200 mp that first jumped on board i i can just hear someone uh i think our pollster um he was actually

05:24:33.720 the uh liberal mp who stood behind uh mark carney in edmonton when they launched his campaign for

05:24:40.760 leader he was one of the first people to say no christia freeland is not the answer uh to

05:24:46.520 Justin Trudeau's failures. It's Mark Carney. He launched his campaign with him and he might lose

05:24:51.040 this, which, you know, this is the first election he's fighting since it came to light that he was

05:24:55.760 stealing mail and that he actually had his campaign manager vote in a writing that she

05:25:01.260 was not legally allowed to vote in. So it's going to be interesting if he loses. You know,

05:25:05.700 I kind of hope that he does because he's been a terrible representative for Calgary.

05:25:09.200 But the very fact that Calgary is turning more non-conservatives out right now than

05:25:13.700 than Edmonton sure is interesting.

05:25:17.920 Well, I want to bring it back to Ontario for a moment

05:25:20.640 because we are seeing some news in Ottawa,

05:25:23.900 in Carleton riding where Pierre Polyev is a representative.

05:25:27.400 He won with 51% in 2021.

05:25:30.640 And as the first polls come in,

05:25:32.160 it looks like he is behind and trailing.

05:25:34.060 Now, I will say that the legacy media put out

05:25:37.260 a series of coordinated news articles

05:25:39.780 on the eve of the election on Friday.

05:25:42.160 The Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, Ottawa Citizen Post Media, many of them had the same article saying that the Conservatives were worried that Pierre Polyev was going to lose in his riding, that they quoted senior sources from the Conservatives.

05:25:55.800 It turned out it wasn't from the Conservative Party of Canada, it was from the Ontario PC Party, so you can sort of guess who that might have been, saying that they were worried.

05:26:03.860 I dismissed it as total fake news because it just didn't seem right, given that Pierre Polyev had won with such massive majorities throughout his entire term.

05:26:12.160 you know, he's been an MP since he was 25 years old. So he's held, you know, there's been some

05:26:16.840 redrawing of the seats, but he's held his Ottawa area seat for almost 20 years. So Matt, I'll put

05:26:24.800 it over to you, Matt John, our decision desk host. Can you walk us through that writing and walk us

05:26:29.400 through any other seats in Ontario that you want to talk about? Yeah, so let's talk about Carleton

05:26:37.760 first. That is a writing with a huge amount of advance vote, as people have noted. And I think

05:26:42.640 that's one of those writings where they started counting that advance vote early. It's possible

05:26:46.300 that some of those returns in Carleton right now are actually advance vote coming in. We'll keep

05:26:51.920 monitoring it. I would still say that the fundamentals of that writing, as you noted,

05:26:56.340 51% for Pierre in the last election should hopefully drag it back for him. But something

05:27:02.240 something certainly to monitor. It would be maximum chaos scenario if the numbers stayed

05:27:08.560 this close, but Pierre was to lose his seat. A couple of other interesting things, just to

05:27:13.940 call a couple of ridings. So King Vaughn in Ontario, I think we're now prepared to call

05:27:20.080 for the Conservative Party, and that's a flip from the Liberals. I think back in the days of

05:27:26.860 Mr. McTeague as an MP, it would have been very highly unlikely for the Conservatives to be

05:27:30.860 competitive there, but here we are. The other riding I think we're prepared to call is York

05:27:36.460 Centre, where Mr. Baber looks to be comfortably enough ahead that he should be able to hold on

05:27:41.160 in that riding. And the last CPC flip that I think we're prepared to call is Edmonton Greaseback

05:27:47.340 out in Alberta. So again, some interesting ridings coming in. Another one that just got called is

05:27:56.700 in the north, Kappas Kays and Timmins called for the Tories. That would be another flip

05:28:02.440 from the NDP. So some interesting results. And that number down at the bottom there is staying

05:28:09.800 stubbornly close. The Liberals seem to really have a problem getting above about 160. You'll

05:28:15.440 notice they climb up to about 160, maybe up to 165, and then they come back down. And that seems

05:28:21.380 to be a bit of a hard ceiling for them at the moment, which I would suggest is a pretty

05:28:25.880 disappointing result for them based on where I think they all thought they were about a week ago.

05:28:30.560 Well, it's interesting. I'm looking at Elections Canada and it's showing the popular vote right

05:28:35.040 now, percent of the vote, 43% for the Liberals, 41.4% for the Conservatives. So again, that would

05:28:40.560 be a historic high for the Conservative Party of Canada. I don't know that they've ever had an

05:28:45.520 election with that high of a vote since becoming the Conservative Party of Canada. Dan, what do

05:28:51.660 what do you make of these results coming in in both alberta ontario and uh you know this historic

05:28:57.420 uh finish that we're still watching unfold well we know it's a transfer of ndp votes to the

05:29:02.700 liberals in much the same way when i lost in 2011 after what 18 years uh it was a transfer of liberal

05:29:08.700 votes to the ndp these people are interchangeable and uh they love their uh as long as they can get

05:29:12.940 their grift a little bit of money on the side and they can be assured and you know that someone's

05:29:17.420 got their back and that they uh don't have to respond to crises that liberals tend to create

05:29:23.260 as they did as i mentioned earlier in 2021 and again now in 2025 but it's not working this time

05:29:28.460 there's just too many working people out there who are scared young people i think

05:29:32.540 i saw a pollster saying young people didn't vote uh conservative they actually voted liberal bologna

05:29:37.740 horse bucky they actually did vote for the conservatives and started to show up look i i

05:29:42.780 I think this is just sort of a round two is coming up very soon.

05:29:47.500 It's going to demonstrate the shortcomings of tonight's voting patterns.

05:29:53.420 If the Liberals don't win that 172 or even 173, because, of course, there's always someone who might be sick or decides to cross the floor, whatever the case may be.

05:30:03.600 This looks a lot like 2006 to 2008.

05:30:06.600 It's going to be, you know, the Liberals are going to be forced to on their heels to try to maintain their government.

05:30:13.400 Any of their policies that are going to be significantly damaging, the net zero policies, the whole charade around Mark Carney hiding or being able to hide his assets, his liabilities.

05:30:23.240 Everything about Mark Carney is finally going to get exposed and he can't get the protection, the veneer that his paid media was giving him and the pollsters, of course, who were behind it.

05:30:32.000 Now Canadians have decided they've seen through the ruse, 0.99

05:30:34.760 you've given them a shock of their life with Trump and it still didn't work.

05:30:37.940 The fact that the Conservatives are at 149, the Liberals only 156,

05:30:41.660 when most people had conceded it was going to be a majority for the Liberals,

05:30:44.940 I think it's very telling.

05:30:46.780 And I think the next couple of years, with the strong leadership,

05:30:50.100 especially for Pierre Polyev, who has experience here,

05:30:52.760 the Liberals have to come back to the House of Commons.

05:30:55.100 Mark Carney has to face questions and it's not going to be very easy.

05:30:58.360 The Bloc, on the other hand, they worked for the Conservatives before.

05:31:00.920 Remember 2006? They worked with the NDP and brought them down. The NDP, as you pointed out, and the LPC doesn't quite cut the mustard. As for the Greens, down to one seat, they're not a factor. So I don't want to put my running shoes away or go and help more conservative candidates. I'm helping 12, 13, 14 of them. I have a feeling that we're going to be doing this again within the next year.

05:31:23.720 Well, it's just so interesting, just again, to look at these numbers at the bottom of our screen, because, and this is a question for you, Matt, John. I mean, with the Conservatives at 149 votes and the Bloc at 25, is it possible that those two parties could, like, maybe walk us through the process, because I believe the party that gets the most seats, so that will be the Liberals, will get the first chance to form a government.

05:31:44.720 If they don't have enough seats to form a government, will it then go to the Conservatives?

05:31:49.800 And is it possible that we could see a formal coalition with the Conservatives and the Bloc

05:31:54.680 and that they could form government?

05:31:57.220 So I hesitate to opine on the workings of Parliament with such an esteemed Parliamentarian

05:32:02.680 on the call who sat through some minority Parliaments, who probably knows the ins and

05:32:06.680 outs of this much better than I do.

05:32:08.380 But yes, the Liberals would get a chance to form government, especially if they won the

05:32:12.920 most seats.

05:32:13.380 I was thinking, though, about, if you remember in 2006, Stephen Harper won a minority.

05:32:19.220 He won the most seats, but certainly the Liberals could have made an attempt then to form a coalition with some other party to stay in power, but declined.

05:32:28.820 And Mr. Martin resigned on, I think, I believe he resigned on election night.

05:32:33.600 So there are other options besides formal coalition available to them.

05:32:39.640 You know, the Liberal Party certainly has the right to meet Parliament and face Parliament and an early confidence vote on either their throne speech or an early piece of legislation.

05:32:52.200 If they feel like they don't have the confidence of Parliament, if they lose that vote, the Governor General certainly could ask the Conservatives to form a government without there being an election,

05:33:04.160 if the Governor General is convinced that the Conservatives would be able to have the confidence of the House.

05:33:09.640 And that's where I think, whether it's a formal coalition or not, I doubt any party would form a coalition with the bloc. I doubt the bloc would want to form a coalition with any party. But the bloc may see it as advantageous to prop up one or the other, depending on what they feel they can get out of them.

05:33:29.660 And so that's going to be a really interesting thing to watch.

05:33:32.520 If it stays this close, the bloc are probably licking their chops right now on what they might be able to pull off in the next parliament.

05:33:42.620 Right. Well, I want to be respectful of your time, Dan, but I will just put the same question to you.

05:33:47.240 I mean, walk us through what scenarios we might see here in the forming of this government.

05:33:52.960 Oh, it's quite right. I think we're looking at the Liberals to be asked to form government,

05:33:56.280 uh especially if they now have you know 12 15 seat advantage over the conservatives uh um we'll

05:34:02.600 have to see whether or not uh the leaders of both parties win their seats of course that's always a

05:34:07.480 given but it's uh it's it's important tonight um but uh it's in that context the liberals uh

05:34:14.200 are going to have to come up with something extraordinary uh in order to say hey we're

05:34:18.120 forming a government based on the following and having uh you know the the block go along with

05:34:22.600 them with the ndp it'll work for several months i mean we're not going to an election in 2025

05:34:27.960 unless something crazy should happen uh like we saw in 1979 on 19th senate leader gasoline there's

05:34:33.960 a funny issue no wonder i like that issue uh but i can tell you that uh you know come 12 14 16 months

05:34:41.160 this is going to creep up on us and some people have said said to me oh when that happens people

05:34:44.760 are gonna get mad they get mad for the very first week and then they forget about it and get back

05:34:48.680 to the business of voting so uh this isn't over by a long shot this is not decided and i think the

05:34:53.560 unusual circumstance of things like tariffs and trump having played such an inordinate uh uh you

05:34:59.880 know part of this uh of this uh of this election means that canadians are going to want to have an

05:35:04.600 election in which they focus on issues that are important to them and canadian domestic issues as

05:35:09.240 opposed to uh foreign stuff that uh you know might satisfy one particular constituency one party but

05:35:15.080 doesn't really respond to the wider needs of Canadians and I think the numbers tonight

05:35:19.160 show if anything Canadians have become unshackled from uh the uh the uh existing legacy media and

05:35:27.720 pollsters uh they have all got egg on their face and they're going to there's a lot of splaining

05:35:31.960 to do tomorrow when they all wake up and look like they've been misleading the public by these

05:35:36.760 polls that really did not do what I did many others have done actually knocking on the doors

05:35:41.720 and finding out man that conservative vote is really strong it's very determined i had this

05:35:45.960 discussion with john wright uh two weeks ago and said are you guys even looking that he says we're

05:35:50.040 starting to see that the liberal vote is not as strong as committed as the uh the conservative

05:35:55.080 vote i think that's one of the big takeaways from this election is that people are going to take

05:35:59.400 future pollsters and future media interests with a significant grain of salt oh absolutely i

05:36:06.360 completely agree with that well dan mcteague former liberal mp we really appreciate your

05:36:10.120 your time thank you so much for joining our take everybody bye-bye all right take care and matt

05:36:14.900 we will uh come back to you again later we want to bring on noah jarvis who is a true north reporter

05:36:20.120 and he is on the ground in richmond hill and he is he did an exit poll for us and i think he's

05:36:27.320 coming to us from the conservative the local conservative uh headquarters there for costas

05:36:33.100 metagakis who's a former mp he's running again that is in the writing of aurora oak ridge's

05:36:38.740 Richmond Hill. I believe we also have Mark Nixon online. Mark is a social media influencer with a

05:36:45.540 large following on TikTok and X. So, gentlemen, thanks for joining us. I guess let's go to you

05:36:52.820 first, Noah. Tell us about where you are. Give us a little scene setter and what you have been

05:36:57.460 reporting today. Yeah, I'm at the Caucasus Managakis campaign party in Aurora,

05:37:04.020 uh aurora encourages richmond hill where there's a lot of energy a lot of enthusiasm here by the

05:37:10.740 volunteers and some of the campaign staff uh as costas is currently in the lead according to

05:37:16.580 uh elections canada data news uh reading the current liberal incumbent by about nine percent

05:37:22.420 and this reflects some of the uh stuff that myself and my colleague clayton had been finding in the

05:37:27.300 rioting these past few hours. We did some exit polling at a polling station and we asked the

05:37:34.260 people who they decided to vote for and we got some astonishing results. We had 20 people tell

05:37:40.500 us they're voting conservative, only four people said they're voting liberal and about just as many

05:37:45.460 people who said they're voting conservative decided not to tell us who they're voting for.

05:37:48.820 This is likely a lot of liberal voters but at the end of the day you had a lot of people who are

05:37:53.300 passionate about uh voting for the conservatives and the conservative party and we also did some

05:37:57.700 streeters just walking around talking to regular people and a lot of the people who said they were

05:38:02.260 voting conservatives were very passionate so you can definitely see that uh based on the election

05:38:07.620 results costas is a former liberal conservative mp from 2011 to 2015 so he knows this region very

05:38:13.940 well and it seems as if his campaign did a very good job getting out the vote as they're currently

05:38:18.980 uh they would currently hold a solid lead in the polling right now well it's so interesting

05:38:23.300 let you know that we our decision desk has actually as you said that just called aurora

05:38:28.660 oak ridges for the conservative party uh clausus minigakis will be the next conservative

05:38:34.900 member of parliament for that riding so you can go to the party and let them know that our

05:38:39.140 statisticians in the back room think that there's no path to victory for the liberals in that riding

05:38:45.540 now it's so interesting because this is this is the coveted 905 and i would say this is a

05:38:53.780 battleground this is where the election is all coming down to and it seems like the conservatives

05:38:58.900 are pulling out the wins that they need and we just announced that they won in king vaughn

05:39:03.220 they're winning in markham unionville the uh the the riding where the uh former mp that said that

05:39:11.780 the Chinese government bounty, that the Conservatives should get turned over for that. So

05:39:17.380 it seems like the Conservatives are coming through in some of these key ridings. And then other ones,

05:39:21.140 like we were just talking about Carleton in Ottawa, Pierre Polyev's riding where he won with 51%

05:39:26.420 of the vote in 2021. Our polls are still showing him trailing in that riding. Mark, I want to bring

05:39:33.060 you in on this. First of all, thank you so much for joining our broadcast. I don't think we've had

05:39:37.780 you on before but it's great uh to see you and have you how are you feeling i think you're out

05:39:42.580 in british columbia so tell us what the mood is like out there yeah so you know i was actually

05:39:48.340 on another show um so first of all thank you so much for having me it's a pleasure and um and

05:39:54.340 juna news i'm all you guys are great so this is fantastic um in bc i mean at the beginning people

05:40:01.060 were biting their nails people were frustrated they were worried um but you know i was telling

05:40:07.780 people i said you know to get um when we started off with those 10 seats i mean that was that you

05:40:14.420 know this is this is not a bad as doom and gloom i mean the worst would be a majority government for

05:40:22.020 the liberals let's be honest this is this is um and so block 23 that's right there ndp with with

05:40:29.780 nine i'm surprised so one of the things that you know is going to allow me to sleep at night is

05:40:36.340 knowing that jagmeet singh is finished this is an exciting time for canada like we're sick of jagmeet

05:40:43.540 singh and you know what's funny is on my social media channels i've been publishing jagmeet singh

05:40:49.220 on he does his um you know cpac's got uh 240 000 subscribers and five hours after his campaign

05:40:57.700 videos published there's 400 views and seven likes and you just know that you know it's unbelievable

05:41:04.420 he's kind of almost feel sorry for him well not really because he not only did he destroy his party

05:41:11.620 um but a lot of the votes that um you know the balance of power like you know the ndp had was

05:41:18.260 all about fighting for the workers and you know i did some uh spaces on x and i had some ndp

05:41:24.740 people come onto my onto the discussion and they said they've always voted ndp their entire life

05:41:31.620 and they've they this election they voted conservative and i said how could you go from

05:41:38.100 ndp to conservative actually a lot of people across the country went all the way to ndp and

05:41:43.780 it's because the conservatives represents the people the workers it's a big shift in politics

05:41:51.060 and people they always when i speak to people i say you need to stop looking at the left or right

05:41:57.620 or center it's like what does the party represent for you today it the stuff in the past when they

05:42:03.220 talk about harper i said harper that's like a decade ago the party's evolved each party evolves

05:42:08.740 into something and the liberal party has evolved into something that's unrecognizable from the past

05:42:14.740 if they used to be center i don't even know what they are anymore they the policies that they do

05:42:21.060 um are destructive you know this green uh you know agenda that they've tried to push 0.87

05:42:27.620 onto us it didn't mark carney said that the carbon tax only reduced carbon emissions by

05:42:34.340 six percent or something ridiculous and and you know a month before the election they decided

05:42:40.660 to remove the carbon tax so that they could get votes but think about the 40 increase in inflation

05:42:48.740 on everything a pack three stakes before the pandemic was 20 try to get three stakes today

05:42:56.580 it's like 80 to 100 meat is unaffordable and it's only becoming more and more expensive with these

05:43:03.460 liberals because the only thing they know how to do is open up those printing presses they just

05:43:08.980 print money they don't understand that you have to create more goods and services whatever money

05:43:13.700 buys in order to be prosperous you can't just print money and expect prices not to go up and

05:43:21.060 so when they said they were going to do uh an additional quarter of a trillion dollars over

05:43:26.420 four years and i went onto their website and looked at i read their platform in and out not once

05:43:33.460 did a pipeline in all that money there's no mention of pipeline can you believe that that

05:43:39.780 is incredible because think about it we don't have manufacturing in canada we did these evs

05:43:45.620 all a waste of money we don't create anything what we have is an abundance of energy we need

05:43:52.260 to sell our energy to the world that's what made canada prosperous in the first place if we want

05:43:57.460 hospitals that doesn't have 18 hour wait lines which we have in bc they have rolling blackouts

05:44:03.700 on hospitals what happens when delta hospital closes then they all flood to another hospital

05:44:09.540 and all the lineups explode to like 18 to 24 hours just see so you know what bc health said

05:44:15.620 they said this is our advice to you british columbia don't get sick are you kidding me

05:44:22.660 that's that's their advice and the thing that people don't understand is even if you throw

05:44:29.860 a bag of money tons of money at this you're not creating it's not getting better because you're

05:44:36.180 not we're not selling stuff to the world we're not creating so we need to be stronger and that's

05:44:42.580 why the conservatives they had that they actually had a plan to make our country prosperous again

05:44:49.780 like build our energy build our pipelines do that corridor they were offering a solution to

05:44:55.620 you know 10 years of financial um so on so right now um with 146 and 164 it's it might actually be

05:45:05.700 better better numbers because if you look at um you know when i first came on here

05:45:10.980 jeremy nixon in calgary confederation is now leading and calgary calgary center is also

05:45:19.900 gone blue so calgary's all blue wow and that is uh shocking one writing that i i'll point out uh

05:45:29.720 is calgary or not calgary uh carlton here's writing uh the leader of the conservative

05:45:35.360 party is currently trailing in his writing uh they said that it was all hooey that he was

05:45:40.540 not leading in that race and it's i have to say getting tight for him it's not looking good for

05:45:47.320 the leader of the conservative party at this moment uh in his own riding i think nationally

05:45:51.540 i you know he's he spent his entire campaign campaigning across the country um and i don't

05:45:57.000 think that this win from the liberals was so much a liberal victory so much as an ndp collapse

05:46:02.960 and in that same vein i don't think it was a loss from pierre uh i don't think pierre polyev ran a

05:46:10.240 bad campaign. I don't think he didn't pivot soon enough. I think Jagmeet Singh was such an

05:46:15.740 incompetent political operative and decision maker throughout his time in office and during this

05:46:21.340 campaign that the collapse that we've witnessed from the NDP was something that Pierre could have

05:46:27.760 pivoted 360 degrees and he wouldn't have found a way to solve the incompetent Jagmeet Singh problem.

05:46:34.920 Well, I just want to jump in and I'll just say it. Something is not right in Carleton. There is an absolute assault on our democracy happening right now. And Elections Canada is allowing it. They're facilitating it. They're letting them get away with it. There was an absolutely anti-democratic movement. I think it was called Flood the Ballot or some nonsense like that.

05:46:56.560 there were dozens, I think hundreds of independent people running in Carleton. I have no idea why

05:47:04.580 Elections Canada allows this. It is an absolute mockery of our system. And so the fact that

05:47:10.000 Pierre Polyev, who got 51% of the vote in 2021, who has been an incumbent member of parliament

05:47:16.300 for almost 20 years, the fact that he is at risk of losing his own seat when he ran a national

05:47:21.680 campaign where his party went from 33 percent in 2021 it looks like they're going to finish at 42

05:47:28.960 folks 42 so tell me how the popular leader of the conservative party who has run an historically

05:47:37.280 excellent campaign and will win more of the popular vote than any other time in the history

05:47:43.760 of this party the conservative party of canada how is it that he loses his own seat something

05:47:48.480 is not right. I do not trust the numbers coming in. I do not trust Elections Canada to run a fair

05:47:54.000 campaign when they are allowing hundreds of names to be on the ballot. It is absolutely outrageous.

05:48:00.900 Mark, what do you think? I will make one note on this, that the polls that are being reported

05:48:06.700 right now from Carleton, it's 40 out of 266. So it's 20% of polls reporting just under actually.

05:48:14.220 so the results could change and in fact they likely will i'm speaking with the conservative

05:48:20.640 party war room right now some folks inside of it and they still remain confident that pierre will

05:48:26.000 win this they don't think that this will go for the for the liberals i think they think there's

05:48:30.600 just some early liberal polls reporting for this so i think that they're still confident in this

05:48:35.980 result it's just shocking to see right you know seeing uh the leader in a history as a you said

05:48:42.780 historic campaign um these are these are huge numbers uh for pierre across the country in fact

05:48:49.100 he almost has the popular vote if you subtract or if you add the ppc vote right now which is sitting

05:48:54.540 at about 0.8 percent to the conservative numbers the conservatives would have a plurality popular

05:49:00.540 vote right now so it doesn't make sense for him to lose carlton with the math that we're looking at

05:49:05.020 it's just it it seems to me that it's the polls that are reporting but i agree with you the fact

05:49:10.220 that they allowed targeted manipulation of the ballot in pierre's writing is really really

05:49:16.620 suspicious uh and i think that it was anti-democratic i got two things to mention

05:49:24.620 who saw pierre pauliev try to put that ballot in the box it almost didn't go through the slot

05:49:32.060 like it's unbelievable what they've done there it's ridiculous and then for them to start counting

05:49:38.220 the ballot six hours early and we're only at 20 of the the count it's it's unbelievable and there's

05:49:44.780 another thing i want to mention about this bruce fanjoy i've never seen this man before i've never

05:49:51.260 spoken to him never even posted anything against him i've never i don't even know who this person

05:49:56.700 is and uh i went on to just like click and click on his thing he's banned me from blocked me from

05:50:03.260 everything i've never talked to him and then i found out i made a post about it on my x account

05:50:09.260 saying hey can you check are you blocked by this fan joy and he's basically blocked every

05:50:14.860 single conservative on x so you and i it just that doesn't sit well with me if you are going

05:50:22.540 to try to become a politician or you are a current politician and you can't have your

05:50:27.900 comments section on you do not deserve to work in politics you serve the public you don't serve

05:50:34.220 yourself and if you you also need to stand by what you say online and if you can't stand by that and

05:50:40.540 you turn things off and that goes for the rest of the liberals i don't see anybody else blocking or

05:50:46.220 blocking blocking not even muting blocking that's even further um and i just wanted to add that um

05:50:52.860 I don't know what your thoughts are on that, Candice.

05:50:56.800 I don't know who you're talking about.

05:50:58.500 Maybe he blocks me.

05:50:59.400 I don't spend a lot of time on X's days,

05:51:01.440 but I do think it's sort of absurd.

05:51:04.220 I think with the new feature, though,

05:51:05.420 you can still see people that block you, right?

05:51:09.240 You can still see people,

05:51:10.620 but you can't communicate with them.

05:51:14.360 So if you wanted to, you know,

05:51:17.060 you have to screenshot if you want to,

05:51:19.760 you know, you can see what they posted,

05:51:21.100 screenshot it, crop it,

05:51:22.220 and then you could comment on what they've done but you can't that you can't communicate and it

05:51:27.980 won't show up on your feed you kind of gotta you know track them click on them you know so it's a

05:51:34.200 little bit of extra work um i you know what i'm never gonna talk to this bruce fanjoy but you

05:51:41.880 know these people the public cannot vote for someone that silences canadians it doesn't matter

05:51:49.380 what your viewpoint is it doesn't matter um you know you have a voice and if someone's blocking

05:51:57.000 you and they're in politics they don't just i have some uh i have some breaking news to announce

05:52:02.300 here uh the juno news decision desk has just called the uh election in furnaby uh we have

05:52:10.820 we have some news to share with our viewers right now um jag

05:52:16.040 jagmeet singh has been trounced i believe is the word uh the the word i'm looking for

05:52:32.280 uh it is with great joy that i declare him a loser now and forever uh he is not just losing

05:52:41.500 He is in third place in the riding he holds incumbency in right now, being defeated by the liberal Wade Chang.

05:52:50.220 This is the story of the election.

05:52:53.440 This is why the liberals have won, because of ridings exactly like Burnaby Central.

05:52:59.340 Because the NDP, and Jagmeet Singh specifically, looked at the liberals, took the keys of his car out of his pocket, and handed it to them.

05:53:10.340 and said here you go uh here's the country you run it because i am too incompetent to do it myself

05:53:17.300 and voters saw that and they agreed they said yes you do not deserve to be in public office

05:53:23.860 you were in it for yourself uh you did nothing for us except for waste taxpayers dollars on 0.99

05:53:30.900 belligerently stupid uh uh government programming that did nothing for anybody didn't sort out any 0.99

05:53:39.220 problems for anyone that needed it. And his record will be one of failure. So I don't know, 1.00

05:53:45.600 Candace, do you think he'll be resigning tonight? I hope so. I don't usually celebrate when people

05:53:51.420 lose their jobs, but I think there's a special exception for Jagmeet Singh for all he has done

05:53:56.260 to Canadians. I mean, we heard him come out last week just basically saying that, yeah,

05:54:00.760 I kept propping up the Liberals because I just wanted to block a Conservative government. So I

05:54:05.620 think after that. I also don't know who on earth would hire a man like Jagmeet Singh. I don't know

05:54:10.020 what his post-politics career will look like. Maybe he will get into the social media influencing

05:54:16.100 game. He seems to be always more interested in the clicks and the likes than actually the

05:54:21.380 governing of the country. Mark, Jagmeet Singh is a representative out in your neck of the woods

05:54:25.820 in British Columbia. So what do you think of this? To be honest with you, he is, I voted Jagmeet

05:54:32.400 thing out it was such a glorious feeling to literally be one of the canadians that gets to

05:54:38.860 see this guy out he is in i live in burnaby central riding and uh when i was voting it felt

05:54:46.780 so good knowing that he would be finished obviously i voted for james yang um he is

05:54:53.520 you know i mean i i knew it'd be a tight race and um my writing is has always traditionally

05:55:01.000 been left leaning. So to see James actually right up there, it's impressive. I tried to help him

05:55:07.360 out on X and he came, you know, one thing that I really liked about the conservative James that

05:55:13.180 was in Jagmeet Singh's writing, he came to my door twice. He knocked on every single door in

05:55:19.540 the writing twice. I know because I saw him like, wow, man, that's two times he came to my house.

05:55:24.780 jagmeet singh did not knock on one door you would think that if he wanted to keep us he knew that

05:55:32.280 it would be a battle for his riding if he actually cared he would have knocked on every single door

05:55:38.140 but he was too busy traveling across canada with um what's that uh that girl that was on

05:55:46.020 only's fan you know actually when you look at the look at his entire campaign the only time that his

05:55:52.720 ratings went up was when he was caught with an only's girlfriend other than that his writing

05:55:58.080 was a campaign was was terrible it was and you know doesn't that make canadians furious that

05:56:05.500 not only did he not call an election in september or rip he after he ripped up the supply and

05:56:12.120 confidence agreement and then after that we went all the way to december he could have done it

05:56:16.540 again when you know when the when um the budget the whole thing he could have done it so many

05:56:22.480 times he might have even been opposition leader but yet he waited until he got his pension

05:56:28.980 and canadians see this and that's why the ndp has is non-party status and jagmeet singh is

05:56:36.560 retiring from politics tonight thank goodness thank goodness uh no i want to bring you back

05:56:42.760 and Noah Jarvis is on the ground at a conservative headquarters in, I believe it's Richmond Hill,

05:56:48.340 or is it Aurora? I know the writing is Aurora Oakridge's Richmond Hill. I don't know exactly

05:56:52.280 where the writing you're in, but can you give us an update of what's happening there?

05:56:58.000 What do we think of this news that Jagmeet Singh has lost his seat?

05:57:04.060 Well, to start off with right here, I've just heard a big eruption from the crowd behind me.

05:57:10.400 I guess the CBC had just announced that Richmond Hill, Oak Ridge, Aurora had been called for the Conservatives and perhaps Tossus also locked in.

05:57:22.420 But it really goes to show that, yes, there is a significant movement looking for change in this country.

05:57:27.960 The reason why Pierre Collier brings out the use of thousands and thousands of people, even tens of thousands of people in some cases,

05:57:35.000 is that he has a message that is resonating, and it's clearly resonating in the 905.

05:57:39.480 by the cbc they showed one graph that's fairly that the conservatives uh vote share

05:57:48.120 oops i think we may have lost noah with his reception there i

05:57:54.840 mark are you still there can you still hear me i'm here i'm here okay i want to i want to ask

05:57:58.360 you about this for years i mean and once you oh you can just go ahead and cut noah's audio there

05:58:05.720 i think it was pretty clear that this party would be suffering as a result and

05:58:11.240 you know the results are here

05:58:29.400 sorry about that uh shall i go through some writing by writings right now candace no i

05:58:34.120 I want to ask, I just want to ask Mark, well, this is sort of a pet peeve of mine when American

05:58:38.160 sort of political commentators jump in and start talking about Canada when they clearly just don't

05:58:44.060 know what they're talking about. Okay, let me just give some context here. I'm looking at the numbers.

05:58:49.420 Pierre Polyev under any other election scenario would have won. It looks like he's got 42% of the

05:58:54.820 vote. Okay, first of all, the polls were wrong. They were spectacularly wrong. They were putting

05:58:58.980 the Conservatives in the mid to high 30s, like 37, 38, 39. That was the range that most polls

05:59:05.240 had Polyev. Polyev would have won this election under most other circumstances had the NDP carried

05:59:10.980 their weight. So we didn't see a colossal loss from Pierre Polyev. We saw a huge collapse of

05:59:17.700 the NDP vote and the surge go towards the Liberals barely able to eke it out. We're talking about

05:59:23.300 winning by just a couple of seats here. We have Patrick Bet-David. Earlier in the campaign,

05:59:30.640 Patrick Bet-David called out Pierre Polyev and said, why haven't you come on my podcast?

05:59:34.500 If you want to win the election, you have to come on these big American podcasts. I don't

05:59:38.680 necessarily disagree. I think that Pierre Polyev should have had a more open campaign strategy

05:59:43.520 where he would have gone on and spoken to more independent creators and independent journalists.

05:59:48.820 But now to hear these American commentators basically dancing on Pierre Polyev's grave,

05:59:53.080 or at least trying to, saying you blew it, you lost, you need to be held accountable, this is your

05:59:59.960 loss. It seems to me they just don't really understand Canadian politics because I am a

06:00:05.040 conservative in Canada. I talk to a lot of conservatives in Canada. I don't think that

06:00:09.260 people are looking at Pierre Polyev and seeing a huge loss. I think people are frustrated at what

06:00:14.040 the legacy media did to prop up Mark Carney, frustrated at other Canadians that have chosen

06:00:18.460 to give a fourth term to this disastrous liberal government but i'm not hearing a lot of conservative

06:00:23.420 people talking about how pier polia blew it and yet this is what some of these big american

06:00:30.300 podcasters and social media influencers are trying to say what do you what do you make of this

06:00:34.540 i'm just trying to i'm scratching i'm like which one said that it was at bed david yeah i can i

06:00:39.500 can read it here he posted on uh x about an hour ago he said this is patrick sorry patrick bet

06:00:44.940 David, he said, Canada, I certainly hope your candidate Pierre Polyev did everything his power

06:00:49.860 to win for you. I hope you held him accountable. I hope you drove him to earn his victory instead

06:00:56.460 of being entitled to it. You know, he goes on and on about how he should have done these big

06:01:01.680 American podcasts. And then he just says, I certainly hope I'm wrong and he wins. But the

06:01:07.040 future looks bright for those who campaign like their country counted on them. So he's just saying

06:01:11.720 that basically poly have lost because he refused to go on this big american podcast so wondering

06:01:16.400 i yeah i don't i i don't agree with that so the one thing is that i notice about pierre poly of

06:01:22.560 is he you know he didn't he didn't take like i feel like he didn't take that many chances he

06:01:30.300 he he kind of just but that's okay like he drove the ship steady he did a great job like look we

06:01:38.780 He did, based on where we're at today, with the Liberals not getting the majority government, this is a win.

06:01:45.800 This is a win for Canadians.

06:01:47.280 This is a win for Pierre Polyev.

06:01:50.220 The big story, like you said, is Jagmeet Singh.

06:01:53.800 Not only did he screw Canada last year, but he screwed Canada on the way out. 0.57

06:01:59.000 That's a double screw.

06:02:00.040 He could have done, like, what about all the people in the NDP?

06:02:03.860 Why didn't they step up and say, hey, Jagmeet, we're not doing so good.

06:02:07.880 let's change our messaging and if you notice in the debate why was he going after Pierre Polyev

06:02:14.600 and talking over him the entire time that right there so showed not only disrespect but it's

06:02:22.140 almost as if did he make a deal with Carney like what's going on here it doesn't make any sense the

06:02:27.920 whole thing doesn't make any sense and when I watched that debate I'm like he got his pension

06:02:32.720 doesn't care his party should have kicked him out and ran somebody else and actually made it an

06:02:39.120 election like out of it and so this whole thing just doesn't make much sense and i'll tell you

06:02:44.800 one of the things that really infuriated me about this entire election campaign is the mainstream

06:02:50.240 media they have completely failed canadians in every retrospect i don't know if you saw but what

06:02:57.280 they said the other day when they i'm i'm still furious about it is when cbc said they were

06:03:04.480 defending they said um when mark when mark carney was caught lying about his discussion his phone

06:03:11.600 call with donald trump saying that he he'd protect he he talked about um canada not he didn't talk

06:03:18.880 about uh you know taking over canada protecting um he's like yeah he was respectful about canada's

06:03:24.800 sovereignty he was respectful about my position as prime minister and he said that we're going to

06:03:30.400 talk after the election and you know talk about you know economic and different things okay so

06:03:38.000 then cbc says that it's their fault for not asking him about the 51st state and they're blaming

06:03:47.120 themselves and they're saying yeah we did bad reporting uh it's our fault how disgusting is

06:03:52.560 that no it's not yeah it's terrible reporting 100 terrible reporting and then for them to blame

06:03:58.860 themselves as well like we need these people to be independent and not state propaganda because

06:04:06.320 they get their bonuses they get paid and they do terrible reporting and that is also why all of the

06:04:12.920 independent people and all of the that are are that are actually working hard and providing

06:04:18.020 real news stories are blowing up across canada this not only election a change but it's also

06:04:25.660 the way that canadians receive their information and it's wonderful to watch enough is enough

06:04:31.420 well i think that's right i think that the fact that 42 percent of canadians still voted for

06:04:37.160 conservatives they saw through the propaganda the legacy media i mean we still have our work cut out

06:04:41.440 for us i can't say that the media has been made irrelevant because they clearly have huge amounts

06:04:47.060 of power and being able to shake the narrative and you know tell many many canadians how they

06:04:51.460 should vote um but certainly it feels like you know there is a groundswell of people who just

06:04:57.220 want real information especially younger canadians who get their news online that aren't sort of

06:05:01.940 captured by the cbc and you know because of that i think they think more independently so

06:05:08.340 this is mark nixon he's a independent content creator you can find him on x and on tick tock

06:05:14.820 uh really appreciate your insights and your time today mark thanks so much for joining us

06:05:19.060 yeah i just want to mention one thing oh man i was with jagmeet saying i was hoping that elizabeth

06:05:25.380 may would go into the sunset as well and i'm here right now she it looks like she's going to be

06:05:31.460 winning her seat unbelievable yeah interesting okay we'll have to look into that well we have

06:05:37.460 our decision desk host matt john back on the line so matt why don't you pick up right there and uh

06:05:42.740 tell us about some of the seats and some of the things that are happening out in British Columbia.

06:05:49.060 Yeah, so it does look like Elizabeth May, somehow the ultimate survivor of Canadian politics,

06:05:54.420 is able to hold on to her seat. We've never been able to explain how Elizabeth May wins elections, 1.00

06:06:00.420 but she's obviously got some secret sauce in that riding. I would say though that on Vancouver 1.00

06:06:05.540 Island, the Conservatives seem to be doing quite well with a couple of seats. We aren't ready yet

06:06:12.580 to declare winners i think but um but seem to be doing well um uh i would also note just to come

06:06:19.940 back to ontario for a second uh when you're talking about polling misses i was just looking at the

06:06:27.140 current popular vote uh percentage uh in ontario uh right now it's within two points 47 45 don't

06:06:35.780 off the top of my head i cannot think of a public pollster that had ontario that close

06:06:40.500 even up to election day. And I think as you guys were talking about on sort of that vote

06:06:48.400 suppression thing, when you've got public poll after public poll putting the Liberals up anywhere

06:06:55.500 from six to 10 points in Ontario, you do wonder how many Conservative voters potentially thought

06:07:03.220 maybe it was over and didn't show up to vote. And in some of these, there's a number of very

06:07:07.560 close ridings in Ontario. And you wonder, in some of those close ridings, were there

06:07:11.840 voters who thought there was no chance for the Conservative Party, and so they didn't

06:07:15.760 bother to vote who might be kicking themselves now?

06:07:19.500 It's so, yeah, so interesting. And things are certainly tight and very close. I think

06:07:24.980 Pierre Polyev is certainly outperforming the polls by a great margin. I believe we have

06:07:30.540 True North reporter, Waleed Tam Tam, at the Conservative headquarters in Toronto. So

06:07:37.060 whenever, sorry, in Ottawa. So whenever he is available, we'll put him up on the screen

06:07:42.000 and talk to him. Kian, how are things out in your neck of the woods and what are you hearing and

06:07:48.060 seeing? I'm looking at the popular vote numbers right now and as the night has gone on, it's

06:07:57.320 become more and more clear that the People's Party vote share, it's at 0.8% right now,

06:08:02.960 added to the conservative vote share the conservatives would have won the popular vote

06:08:08.400 which it appears that they're not going to right now but they have almost 42 percent which is

06:08:13.780 historically really a good performance for the conservative party and normally you would think

06:08:18.900 that they'd be able to form government with that number anyways I'm curious and I'm hoping you can

06:08:23.840 come back to us maybe in our next loop around here and let us know are there any ridings that

06:08:29.760 conservatives would have won if the pvc vote was not there i just hold that thought for a second

06:08:37.600 because we do have waleed who is at the conservative headquarters in ottawa uh waleed uh give us the

06:08:43.600 scenes that are what's happening there yeah well i'm here now and it's quite a quiet environment

06:08:49.680 frankly it was a very loud night uh from the start people felt optimistic people did not believe the

06:08:56.320 polling that they were seeing online um the media had called the election around uh i think it was

06:09:02.480 closer to 10 30 uh 10 eastern time after the final polls were closed in dc uh but they were cheering

06:09:09.360 because when they saw those seat counts come close to five and six between the liberals and

06:09:12.800 conservatives they believed that uh the impossible could have became possible so the feelings are

06:09:18.800 definitely sad for the most part and there is a quiet tone at the midnight mark but uh considers

06:09:24.400 here definitely had a good roller coaster of emotions for sure and so is there any word from

06:09:31.280 leader piher polyev uh when are they expecting him to come out and speak

06:09:36.320 as of yet he has not stepped out i don't know when that will be probably sometime soon i'm hoping of

06:09:42.640 course because there are those of us who do need to be up tomorrow morning but uh we're still

06:09:47.760 waiting on him to show up to the stage well it is interesting because i know i i spoke to many

06:09:53.120 friends who work in the party and people in the war room, and they were optimistic. They did feel

06:09:57.520 good about their chances. And I think rightly so. I mean, the polls were wrong. Polly have massively 0.98

06:10:02.740 outperformed. We're talking about 41.8% of the popular vote at this point, which again, I said

06:10:10.220 this several times, but that would have been enough to win any other election in any other

06:10:13.260 circumstances. So, you know, with good reason that they were feeling good. And still, I mean,

06:10:20.800 it's so close at this point Malid that you know it really will come down to how they will form 0.99

06:10:26.640 a coalition have you had any other interesting conversations with conservative supporters

06:10:30.480 anything else that you're hearing on the ground there well we've heard from quite a few supporters

06:10:35.600 a very very young energetic room actually a lot of people closer to my age and people that really

06:10:41.600 believe that they had a chance of winning and that now they're looking at possibly changing plans for

06:10:47.440 their future looking at housing as a mainstream issue among the young demographic we covered this

06:10:52.800 previously on on our report on the difference of priorities between older and younger voters

06:10:58.480 housing versus trump um so i definitely got the sense that the room was a very good mix between

06:11:05.680 young and old uh across the country frankly um but i also do know for i heard personally from

06:11:12.400 people like goldie gamari who held a seat before uh with the provincial conservatives that uh they

06:11:18.640 believe in the leadership of pierre you know maybe it's not the result they wanted but uh

06:11:22.560 pair paliev seems to have the grip to conserve the party still in his hands i'm not too sure

06:11:27.280 how we see this going currently but i do know that his party remained faithful in him and i've

06:11:31.760 asked a few supporters questions about his leadership given these results and i think

06:11:36.640 supporters remain steadfast uh with parents well that's an interesting point and maybe i'll bring

06:11:41.280 Matt John on about this, can you give us an update with what is happening in Pierre Polyev's

06:11:46.020 riding in Carleton and what might happen if he does lose his seat, but his party goes on to

06:11:53.340 become the opposition? Would he run in another seat or what would happen in that scenario?

06:11:59.460 Yeah, so I'm looking at it right now. He's down by about 1,100, almost 1,200 votes.

06:12:04.620 That seems to be a margin that has sort of solidified in that riding. My guess is that

06:12:09.920 all of the advance vote has now been counted. And so what we're going to see now come in is

06:12:14.480 election day vote. We're at 64 of 266 polls reporting. So actually still, there's still

06:12:20.740 quite a few polls that have to come in, but not sure how much vote is out there. I think it's

06:12:26.020 going to be very close. It's pretty clear to me that in that writing, the NDP essentially collapsed

06:12:31.680 their vote to the Liberal. You can also wonder if potentially all the reporting about Pierre's

06:12:38.180 seat being in danger caused some NDP voters in that riding to vote strategically in a way they

06:12:43.680 may not have if they had thought that Pierre was going to win that riding easily. I hope that we

06:12:49.680 see those numbers close, but if Pierre was to lose his seat, he'd have a couple of options.

06:12:54.860 One, if he decides to stay on as leader, he could stay on as leader and just not have a seat in the

06:13:00.860 House. Other leaders have done that. Eventually, though, I think he'd have to find a seat and more

06:13:06.720 than likely what he'd have to do is get somebody in his caucus who's got a fairly solid conservative

06:13:11.860 seat to step aside for him so that he can run in a by-election in that seat and get himself into

06:13:17.380 the house. I think at 150 seats for the conservatives to win 150 seats and for Pierre not to win his

06:13:31.920 seat would be not a result I don't think anybody could have predicted. Well it's wild and

06:13:36.260 And Kian, you were making the point before we brought Walid on about the PPC being a spoiler.

06:13:42.400 Why don't you pick that thread up again?

06:13:43.920 So this is, I'm just looking writing by writing right now to sort of analyze.

06:13:48.760 And I've only gotten to Brampton so far.

06:13:51.760 And what I'm seeing is really disheartening.

06:13:56.440 You know, as and I won't get into why, you know, why the PPC is doing this and whether they might fall apart as a party after this.

06:14:09.060 But what is clear in Brampton North Calden, Sat and Ann, the PPC candidate, got 1.6 percent of the vote.

06:14:16.820 This has not been called yet. So just a grain of salt.

06:14:19.680 But, add the PPC vote there to the Conservative candidate, they beat the Liberals.

06:14:25.460 Ruby Sohota would have been defeated currently with the announced polls, which is about 50% right now. 0.97

06:14:31.680 Go to Brampton, Chinacusee Park, same thing.

06:14:36.180 1.8% to the PPC.

06:14:38.240 Add that on to the Conservatives, who are trailing by less than a percent, they would have won.

06:14:44.380 Brampton Centre, same story.

06:14:47.660 Just shy, actually.

06:14:49.680 they're they're just shy of adding the ppc on to a victory there but very close within a margin of

06:14:54.720 error and a recount might change that and again only about 50 percent of polls reporting brampton

06:14:59.020 south same story again they are actually trailing the conservative party is trailing by 0.1 percent

06:15:06.660 and the ppc got 0.8 percent maxime bernier has elected mark carney as prime minister and that

06:15:17.180 is almost as unforgivable as jagmeet singh's incompetence is the false comparison of pierre

06:15:25.020 polyev and mark carney the pretend notion that uh that for some reason uh

06:15:33.900 the the ppc really is this like the the true conservative party in this country granted they

06:15:39.660 have some you know good ideas and i i agree with a lot of their policy points but i agreed with

06:15:45.340 those policy points and i agreed with their leadership when aaron o'toole was the alternative

06:15:50.060 when when it was a red tory who was almost a liberal himself and now we have a strong conservative

06:15:56.620 alternative who could have turned the direction of this country in into a uh it could have turned

06:16:03.340 canada into a country where people my age could afford a home uh where people my age could start

06:16:08.700 a family and afford to buy groceries we would have had a leader who could have negotiated with

06:16:15.260 donald trump on a solid footing instead of someone who's going to compromise because really behind

06:16:21.660 closed doors they're good friends with jared kushner uh maxime bernier decided for canadians

06:16:27.260 that through his arrogance and through his desire to be relevant

06:16:31.260 and through his desire to collect a salary from ppc donors so that he can buy more houses abroad

06:16:38.700 that we're going to have Mark Carney, and that's really disappointing.

06:16:42.320 That's just Brampton that I'm looking at right now, four ridings in Brampton,

06:16:47.460 and it might change as the poll results come in.

06:16:50.040 There might be more, there might be fewer, but when you look at these numbers,

06:16:54.020 nine seat difference between government and three of them,

06:16:59.420 just looking quickly at Brampton, were decided by Maxime Bernier.

06:17:04.100 They were handed to Mark Carney by Maxime Bernier.

06:17:07.040 that is uh ppc voters are going to have to go home tonight and are going to have to live with

06:17:14.920 themselves for the next four years potentially that because of their decision we have mark carney

06:17:21.000 it's yeah it's really shocking especially given that uh maxine bernie didn't really campaign i

06:17:28.000 mean he was out on a couple podcasts but we didn't really see much from him on this campaign i'll

06:17:31.860 admit it i supported the party in the past and i voted for them in the past like you said uh when

06:17:36.280 wasn't happy with the direction of the Conservative Party but with a leader like Pierre Polyev I mean

06:17:41.080 there's just no purpose for the party anymore and the fact that they could actually be playing

06:17:44.920 spoilers in some of these close ridings it's really unbelievable. Matt John I'll get you on

06:17:51.080 can you provide us some more insight on some of these numbers? Yeah definitely there's going to

06:17:58.520 be if the if the election stays this close there's going to be a couple of seats that the 0.99

06:18:03.480 PPC votes cost us, as Kian has pointed out. We're also seeing some interesting results

06:18:10.200 coming in out west. I think there was talk in the campaign of potentially the Liberals picking

06:18:17.880 up more seats in Saskatchewan and Alberta than they're currently on track to pick up,

06:18:24.380 so they're underperforming there. I definitely think Manitoba, we picked up, the Conservatives

06:18:31.120 picked up Elmwood Transcona from the NDP. So that's again, another one that I don't think

06:18:35.140 was being predicted by a lot of folks. We'll still see where BC is going to come in. There's

06:18:39.960 some interesting stuff out there, but if they're at the course of the night, some of those BC

06:18:44.880 seats flip, you could start to see that number narrow even further beyond the 160, 151 that's

06:18:52.480 showing up right now. Can you talk to us a little bit about North Island Powell River? Our friend

06:18:57.180 Aaron Gunn is running for the Conservatives. It looks like he's ahead. I'm just looking at the

06:19:02.380 numbers on the CBC's website. It shows him at 38.4 to the NDP's 35.2. Interesting. Maybe you can

06:19:11.760 comment on that writing and talk a little bit about how the collapse of the NDP has impacted

06:19:17.480 the vote so far in British Columbia. Yeah, so it looks to me like Aaron Gunn is doing well. I still,

06:19:24.300 I don't think he's far enough ahead at this point in the night to say for sure that he's going to win.

06:19:30.540 That writing has 310 polls, which is one of the highest number of polls I've ever seen.

06:19:35.500 And there's only 199 of those in.

06:19:37.560 So still a ways to go there, but he's certainly doing well.

06:19:40.380 And I think he's part of a bigger trend that we're seeing, which is NDP seats that are not in some of the urban centers.

06:19:49.360 They're not flipping to the liberals.

06:19:51.020 They're flipping to the conservatives.

06:19:54.300 So London, and when I say urban centers, I really mean Vancouver and Toronto, not the sort of smaller ones.

06:20:02.220 So London Fanshawe, a writing that the NDPs held in a number of elections, has flipped to the Conservatives.

06:20:07.540 Windsor West, a writing that I would never have believed a Conservative could ever win an election in my lifetime, has flipped to the Conservatives.

06:20:16.640 We see seats in Ontario's North, like Nickelbelt, which I don't think a Conservative has won since probably the late 1960s.

06:20:23.580 flipping to the conservatives. And then you look at BC and you see writings like this on Vancouver

06:20:30.900 Island with North Island, Power River, that again, NDP held seat flipping to the conservatives. So

06:20:36.480 it certainly seems to me that yes, while the collapse of the NDP is certainly helping the

06:20:40.840 liberals in writings like Carleton, it's also hurting them in some of these writings that I

06:20:45.180 don't think people gave conservatives much of a chance of winning a week ago.

06:20:49.560 And I know I've asked you this, but I just people keep sending it to me. And it's so unbelievable to me that Pierre Polyev appears to be losing his writing. Are we anywhere close from the decision desk to calling that? And oh, look, we've got David Knightleg back. David, welcome back. Just asking our decision desk host here, Matt John, to talk to us a little bit about the Carlton riding, which, you know, despite Pierre Polyev leading a party with, you know, the highest votes in the

06:21:19.540 history of the Conservative Party of Canada. It looks like he's trailing his own

06:21:23.380 riding, and I don't know if he can come back from it. I don't know if it's an insurmountable

06:21:27.580 trailing that he's seeing there. Yeah, he's down by 1,900 votes at the

06:21:34.340 moment, which actually has gone up by about 400 votes in the last 15 minutes, so an eight-point

06:21:40.800 gap in terms of percentage. There's still only 80 of the 266 polls reporting, so if the advanced

06:21:49.400 polls there, which I think were largest in the country at 21,000 votes. If those skewed to the

06:21:56.500 Liberal Party, but the election day votes are skewing back to the conservatives, maybe he can

06:22:01.960 eat this back and squeak it out. But I will say it's getting very late in the game. And

06:22:06.960 if he doesn't start to turn that around in the next few 20 to 30 polls, you might have a very

06:22:15.660 interesting results in Carleton.

06:22:18.540 Okay, well, David, I'll bring you in on the conversation. So you were here at the

06:22:23.380 beginning of the show. A lot of a lot has happened since then. So what do you what

06:22:27.620 do you make of the results as we've seen them come in here?

06:22:34.580 Oops, I don't think your audio is connecting there, David, I'll give you a

06:22:39.300 minute to try to get it going. I don't know if that's you or our tech team

06:22:44.660 there. But I'm trying to get some more information about, wow, it just looks like all of Eastern

06:22:51.760 Ontario is really gone for the Liberals. It's totally red over here. So yeah, Ottawa, I would

06:22:59.860 just jump in quickly on that, Candice. I would say Eastern Ontario, you know, there's a few losses

06:23:04.880 there we wouldn't have thought of, but it's the Ottawa region specifically that has really swung

06:23:10.260 to the liberals fairly heavily uh i mean take a look at canada as an example 57 the liberals have

06:23:16.560 right now um that's that's uh much higher than i think people would have thought um and even in

06:23:23.000 ridings where you know we would have uh taken the law would assume the conservatives were going to

06:23:27.860 lose you know ottawa west nepean 63 i mean that's a riding john baird held uh up until 2015 right so

06:23:34.500 So for some reason, the city of Ottawa has really significantly swung against the Conservative Party and Pierre is falling victim to that at the moment.

06:23:44.960 And so just one more time, like what would happen if tomorrow morning we wake up and the Conservatives have a minority government?

06:23:51.980 I mean, I don't think that's going to happen, but if the Conservatives have a great showing and then Pierre Paulyov loses his own seat, like can he go on as leader without having his own seat or what would happen there?

06:24:05.300 I think it's important to remember that regardless of what happens tonight, Pierre is the leader unless he chooses to not be the leader.

06:24:13.480 And so whether he wins his seat or not, you know, he's going to have to make that decision on whether he wants to stay on as leader or not.

06:24:25.500 I would suggest if the numbers stay as we're looking below 161, 150, it would be in the best

06:24:30.880 interest of the party for the leader to stay on because I suspect in the next couple of months,

06:24:35.560 there's going to be quite a lot of uncertainty. And I wouldn't want to add to that uncertainty,

06:24:39.860 the question of leadership. However, I can imagine there might be some who might make the point that

06:24:47.060 if he can't win his seat, he doesn't have a seat in the house that he should step aside.

06:24:50.920 okay let's try to go back to david night leg david uh let's try your audio again can you uh

06:24:57.720 test us out here yeah how's that working there you go yeah okay so like i was saying you know

06:25:02.520 lots has happened in the last few hours since we had you on so what do you think of all these

06:25:05.880 results coming in well you know i'll make the i guess obvious observation which is the conservatives

06:25:11.880 with the bloc would form a government right now the liberals with the ndp would not um that's

06:25:19.480 interesting uh i'm you know we've got a lot to figure out it's incredibly frustrating the point

06:25:26.740 that kian made that we have you know we've kind of it's it's interesting we talked a little bit 0.99

06:25:31.640 about the self-defeating moves of the conservatives against each other when it came to sort of

06:25:37.560 figuring out some of the um actual campaigning issues and uh and i think the other issue that's

06:25:45.220 kind of happened here is the PPC killing three to five seats or opportunity at three to five seats.

06:26:00.180 So I think what's going ahead. So thanks so much for having me on. I'm Chris Sims. I'm the Alberta

06:26:05.880 Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. I'm taking a look at this and I'd like to know

06:26:10.200 what you guys think about this. So let's say that these numbers stayed the same tomorrow.

06:26:14.500 Okay. So Prime Minister Mark Carney, who's been all about Canadian unity and Team Canada and

06:26:21.300 elbows up and all this fun stuff, then has to dance with the separatist party in order to form

06:26:28.260 government. How is that going to work? Because one, either one of them, Mark Carney or Pierre

06:26:35.540 Polyev is going to have to go to the governor general saying, if these are all the same numbers,

06:26:40.640 because they could change hey i don't have enough for a majority but here's the dance partner that

06:26:46.400 i have and it's the bloc quebecois i'm curious how long that is going to last in the house of

06:26:52.640 commons as a narrative if we were all supposed to be fighting trump teaming up together i'd be

06:26:59.280 very curious to see what you guys both think about this i i think it's uh uh important to

06:27:06.720 to note that mark carney gets to meet the house uh if these numbers held hold he wouldn't need

06:27:11.940 to form a formal coalition he wouldn't even need to go to the governor general and say

06:27:15.660 um i uh i have the confidence of the house he is the the prime minister and the tradition would

06:27:21.180 dictate that he would get to uh to meet the house um uh and so and how and prove whether the house

06:27:28.060 has confidence in uh in him his government or not and my guess is that's probably what he would

06:27:33.320 attempt versus trying to cut a deal with the bloc. That being said, you know, with how close

06:27:41.220 it is there below, it might be difficult for him to have the confidence of the House. And that's

06:27:47.440 where something like Pierre Polyev, keeping a seat or not, really makes a difference, because

06:27:52.420 it'd be unlikely that you'd want to take the Liberals down until the Conservatives had figured

06:27:57.740 out their own leadership situation. Right. And so you guys are keeping a close eye then.

06:28:02.420 And last I checked on Pierre Polyev's writing, let me just refresh my page here.

06:28:08.580 That looks like it's still, goodness, that's still about 1,600.

06:28:14.100 Now, it has narrowed a bit in the last 10 minutes.

06:28:17.600 It has.

06:28:18.160 It has.

06:28:19.460 That is concerning.

06:28:21.680 I wouldn't lie if I were part of his leadership team.

06:28:24.040 That is concerning.

06:28:24.760 They have about 33% of the vote in there, taking a look at the Elections Canada website.

06:28:29.420 So they have 90 of 266 polls reporting.

06:28:34.700 Now, I have some experience in that riding.

06:28:38.580 Typically, now I don't know if this happened this year.

06:28:41.660 Typically, they bring in the advance vote and then they count the polls that are largely dominated by neighborhoods of government employees.

06:28:50.040 So there's kind of a spur of Carlton, of Pierre Polyev's riding, that includes a big neighborhood that is full of townhouse after townhouse of government employees.

06:29:01.960 So that was always kind of tough door knocking for him.

06:29:05.540 However, yeah, this would be concerning.

06:29:09.040 I still think he'll probably pull it off and win his seat.

06:29:11.640 But then the question then, I guess, becomes which member of parliament is going to take a knee for their leader?

06:29:19.160 will it be somebody in alberta like one of those and one of those mps now i'm getting into

06:29:25.380 the speculation game do you want to jump in uh yeah i mean i look the the speculation game we

06:29:35.920 could go through uh 149 ridings and see which one might be the most likely to quit but uh i suspect

06:29:42.360 uh you're right that he would probably look to somewhere like alberta and uh in a riding that

06:29:47.360 the CPC win substantially to see if he can get one of those guys. If you recall, way back in

06:29:55.840 the Canadian Alliance days, Stockwell Day won the leadership without a seat. And there was a bit of

06:30:00.700 drama about whether he was from Red Deer and the Alliance MP from Red Deer wasn't going to step

06:30:06.980 aside for him. And he ultimately ended up running out in British Columbia, which some people might

06:30:10.600 remember. I do remember that. All the way through the Harper government. So Jagmeet Singh, for that

06:30:18.260 matter, ended up in Burnaby because he didn't have the opportunity to run in a Branton seat,

06:30:23.660 and he didn't hold them. So it's not unprecedented for that to happen. It would be somewhat unusual

06:30:30.560 for somebody to win 150 seats and not their own seat, but stranger things have happened, I suppose.

06:30:39.200 Yeah, Polyev's writing. So I was a talk show host and a producer there right in Ottawa for a long time. So 580 CFRA has got a lot of listeners, or at least it used to before it became eaten by Bell. It used to have a lot of kind of farming. It was the outlying areas of Arnprior, Karp. There were a lot of kind of military families in that area.

06:31:09.200 .

06:31:39.200 .

06:32:09.200 .

06:32:39.200 .

06:33:09.200 .

06:33:39.200 .

06:34:09.200 .

06:34:39.200 .

06:35:09.200 .

06:35:39.200 .

06:36:09.200 was out on the road meeting with thousands of people and talking with them getting his picture

06:36:15.940 with them really building that brand i mean that's why we have t-shirts with his name on it and you

06:36:21.120 know ball caps and all that stuff and apparently uh the cat was away and then the mice did play

06:36:26.100 and this is apparently the story that this liberal challenger who's i think still in the lead let me

06:36:32.160 quickly check election canada is leading holly ev so goodness gracious what a little trick this is

06:36:39.900 it's looks like it's about if i'm reading that right 1800 votes difference 1700 votes difference

06:36:47.180 right now so the liberals are leading by about 1700 using my really rough math here and

06:36:54.380 43 percent of the vote is in that's going to be a squeaker that is going to be a speaker for them

06:37:02.600 goodness we might be watching that one till the wee hours of the morning well i know i will be

06:37:09.040 um then i think the question then is how much are they able to keep the conservative team together

06:37:15.540 while pier poliev is trying to you know hopefully gets his own seat in his view

06:37:20.580 But if he doesn't, trying to find a seat, are they able to keep their ship tight enough so that they can challenge Carney again in a speedier election?

06:37:30.360 Because if these numbers hold, to me, especially if the bloc is the one that has to vote along with the government each time in the House of Commons, I don't see it lasting as long as the deal with the NDP had lasted.

06:37:48.440 Yeah, no, I think that's right.

06:37:50.580 And I think there's also another interesting point there about if the liberals are relying

06:37:58.220 on the bloc to govern, you know, they open themselves certainly up to an attack of partnering

06:38:04.800 with the separatist party just to keep themselves in power.

06:38:07.100 I think you could see Pierre Pauliot being able to hammer that fairly successfully if

06:38:12.700 he chose to.

06:38:14.180 Just to cut in quickly on a declaration, we have now declared that Aaron Gunn is the

06:38:20.280 uh, the winner in his, uh, North Vancouver Island seat of, uh, North Island,

06:38:24.460 Powell river.

06:38:25.260 It's like he's got about 39% of the vote or so.

06:38:28.720 Um, and there's two 45 out of three 10 reported.

06:38:32.520 So, um, enough that we can, uh, we can confidently say he's going to win.

06:38:36.280 So it is now official.

06:38:37.700 We're declaring the Aaron gun is winning his seat.

06:38:39.740 Wow.

06:38:40.500 So Aaron, Aaron gun, uh, for folks who don't know him, uh, he's a great documentary filmmaker.

06:38:46.300 he was the one that did the film that you might have seen clips of called Vancouver is Dying

06:38:51.020 and then he did more of a broadband version of it called Canada is Dying and that's where he

06:38:57.180 was focusing on crime in the streets and in particular what was happening to the folks

06:39:02.140 who were suffering in the downtown east side got some news here oh there that well there it is

06:39:11.760 We are officially declaring that Aaron Gunn has been elected in North Island Powell River.

06:39:17.380 That is a unique riding because it takes up the north of Vancouver Island and then Powell River

06:39:22.540 is actually across the strait and it's on the mainland of British Columbia. You have to take

06:39:27.640 a ferry to get over there. It's a neat mix. I grew up in that riding. I often refer to it,

06:39:33.580 it's a neat mix of hippies and loggers. So you're either cutting down the trees or you're hugging

06:39:38.860 the trees but most of the folks all smoke weed so yeah uh just to cut in with some more news it

06:39:44.540 looks like jagmeet singh has resigned as a leader of the ndp that does not seem all that surprising

06:39:50.860 knowing that he's lost his seat apparently he is speaking and we are just gathering the

06:39:56.060 connections and or the tape if i can use an old term you guys both look like you remember what

06:40:01.420 that term means um and we will roll that tape as soon as we have it ready um so that's interesting

06:40:07.260 I was always expecting Jagmeet Singh to finally do something in the House of Commons after, of course, he qualified for his pension.

06:40:15.960 So we will have to be able to calculate.

06:40:17.980 I'm sure that Franco Teresano, my colleague, has already calculated Jagmeet Singh's pension as he goes off.

06:40:23.880 To that point, I just need to marvel at this a little bit more.

06:40:27.680 Because when I first started on Parliament Hill, I was a cub reporter for CFRA.

06:40:32.300 That was back when the Canadian Alliance was there.

06:40:34.340 And we were always taught that the NDP had to do really, really, really well for the Conservatives or the Canadian Alliance to do really well.

06:40:44.020 And to see the Conservatives over, let me refresh it again, over 41% of the vote, basically on their own, because the NDP has collapsed.

06:40:55.080 They're 5.9% of the popular vote right now.

06:40:58.380 like most of the time the conservatives are thinking that the NDP needs to soak up about

06:41:05.260 15%. So to have the NDP crater down to 5.9% and seeing the conservatives at over 41.7,

06:41:13.040 I'd be curious at both of your opinions. Have we now become kind of a two-party situation,

06:41:18.840 or do you eventually see somebody coming up the middle for the NDP again? Maybe someone,

06:41:23.400 you know wab canoe speaks french yeah i found that out i found that out a few weeks ago and i went

06:41:32.000 well that certainly changes the game now doesn't it so yeah wab canoe uh premier of manitoba

06:41:37.460 speaks french so i'd be really curious to see uh if this is the end for the ndp and this now

06:41:44.560 becomes more of a two-party system or if the ndp is able to uh resuscitate itself they've got more

06:41:51.520 seats than i expected i thought they were going to get four seats but they've got seven so

06:41:55.040 okay we are just waiting to hear from jagmeet singh apparently our team is busy getting

06:42:02.460 the speech ready to go here and he has just resigned so let me take a look here

06:42:12.680 i'm just trying to refresh and update folks on pierre pauliev's writing

06:42:17.260 yeah that is really stubborn gap there seems to have gone back closer to 2000 last i checked

06:42:25.880 yeah so right now the liberal uh contender bruce fanjoy has 16 256 votes and pierre paulia of the

06:42:37.720 incumbent conservative has 14 144 votes and i will just check to see how many polls we have in there

06:42:46.860 Still less than half the polls returning

06:42:49.960 So they've got 46%

06:42:52.020 Or 47% of the polls

06:42:53.820 Returning there

06:42:55.980 And that is of course in the riding of

06:42:57.860 Carlton

06:42:58.720 Alright let me take a look here

06:43:02.460 I think do

06:43:04.100 Folks do we have Jagmeet's

06:43:05.900 Jagmeet Singh's

06:43:08.100 Swan Song

06:43:09.340 I'm just waiting to hear

06:43:11.720 To see if they've got

06:43:12.800 The tape ready to go here

06:43:15.940 no it doesn't look like it yet all right he's destroyed the party do you think so yeah yeah

06:43:29.440 he really has he's um he's i i think because the way that he approached the um narrative of this

06:43:39.460 election was uh and you saw this in the debates he he had he had lost completely what used to be

06:43:47.220 actually quite a strong kind of moral authority for the ndp which was speaking for the working class

06:43:52.980 speaking for the middle class speaking for people that were you know down and out and just just

06:43:59.460 trying to be the moral conscience of the safety oh i think this is his speech here

06:44:04.740 let's see if we can turn this up so folks can hear him

06:44:09.460 can you guys hear i can't hear him not yet i don't know if our viewers can hear him

06:44:16.020 viewers can you hear jagmeet singh speaking there

06:44:18.980 i'm just checking our comments we can't hear him in our ears yet

06:44:29.700 they're all saying no yep i i know how hard you worked i spent time with

06:44:39.300 amazing. I'm so sorry

06:44:41.880 you're not going to be able to represent your communities.

06:44:43.760 I know you're going to continue to fight for them.

06:44:45.680 I know on how many doors you knocked,

06:44:47.780 how many family dinners you missed,

06:44:49.500 how many nights your kids went to bed without you

06:44:51.720 there to tuck them in. I know it was a tough

06:44:53.740 sacrifice, and I just want to thank, and we can

06:44:55.780 give a round of applause to every single candidate that went for us.

06:44:58.880 Thank you.

06:45:02.000 Yeah.

06:45:08.060 Thank all those

06:45:08.920 the incredible candidates, and their incredible teams.

06:45:12.040 Because no candidate can do without a team.

06:45:14.160 The volunteers, the staff, you know, thank you to all those candidates

06:45:17.440 and their incredible staffs. One time, one more time.

06:45:29.200 Choosing to commit your life to politics obviously comes with some sacrifice.

06:45:33.560 But we choose this life because of the chance to change

06:45:36.960 the country we love for the better we may lose sometimes and those losses hurt you know it's

06:45:42.460 tough but we are only defeated if we stop fighting we're only defeated when we believe that those

06:45:50.020 that tell us that we can never dream of a better canada a fairer canada a more compassionate

06:45:55.200 canada i have met new democrats from coast to coast to coast who will never back down

06:46:01.900 even when they're told that there's no room for them at the table

06:46:05.140 we make room for everyone because we believe that there is enough wealth in

06:46:22.840 Canada for all of us to the live the life that we deserve honestly I got to

06:46:37.180 avoid making eye contact with certain people because then it's gonna get into

06:46:39.820 motion up here so I just made the mistake of doing that so I'm gonna look

06:46:43.060 away now you know who you are don't look at me again almost eight years ago I

06:46:51.800 I was elected the leader of this incredible party,

06:46:55.160 this incredible movement.

06:47:06.280 I've worked really hard to be worthy of this trust,

06:47:09.180 to live up to the legacy of our movement.

06:47:14.180 Hold on a sec, I guess.

06:47:17.500 Thank you.

06:47:18.500 One more sec, one more sec.

06:47:28.840 Tonight, I've been forwarded a party leader

06:47:31.260 that I'll be stepping down as party leader

06:47:32.760 as soon as an interim leader can be appointed.

06:47:36.800 Now, I could not have done this incredible job

06:47:39.340 without, here's a point,

06:47:41.060 give me a second to break down a bit.

06:47:43.060 I couldn't have done it without the incredible support

06:47:45.300 my wife could have given it. 0.62

06:47:48.500 she has been my rock she's been my foundation uh for the past couple years i've been regretting

06:48:04.660 that i didn't thank her on the night of the last election so this is my opportunity to make up for

06:48:10.900 it uh she has literally been my rock i couldn't have done this without her she's backed me up

06:48:18.500 she has made she has made so many sacrifices she commences that she's

06:48:30.680 enjoyed them all but I don't know but she's amazing I'm just so so thankful

06:48:36.800 Thanks for being on this journey.

06:48:37.920 I'm gonna give you a hug.

06:48:38.760 Hold on.

06:48:52.800 Also, I might break down this part because,

06:48:56.280 and Anhad and Dhani, my daughters,

06:48:58.140 remind me of the future. 0.96

06:49:00.420 God damn it, that we are fighting for. 0.97

06:49:06.800 that's just because i get emotional anytime i talk about my kids i'm very sappy when it comes 0.99

06:49:14.080 to my my daughter so i still i get a little emotional uh i've also been supported by my

06:49:19.360 family and i gotta thank my parents who are here today they're amazing love you both

06:49:30.480 my brother i wouldn't have been i wouldn't have been on this journey without my brother so big

06:49:34.960 shout out to my brother cuttin um and honestly this may sound funny but my in-laws i literally

06:49:47.280 could have done this without my in-laws uh they're amazing where are my in-laws they're somewhere here

06:49:54.240 wherever they are they're here

06:49:57.920 i wanted to like look at them and point at them too oh there they are yeah i couldn't

06:50:00.720 done it without them literally uh if you uh if you're a parent you know how important your

06:50:05.440 parents are and your in-laws too it turns out so huge thank you uh they've supported us they've

06:50:11.440 kept me grounded uh given us great advice i'm just i'm so thankful to my family you can't do this

06:50:16.160 work without uh great people and you can't do this without a great family supporting you so thank you

06:50:20.480 to my family. I'm spilling my water and everything. It's getting a little bit trying to be graceful

06:50:33.520 here folks. I also want to thank my NDP caucus. This is this is a team that together we brought

06:50:39.440 historic change for people. We brought real change to the lives of Canadians.

06:50:43.120 I know that people are concretely better off because of our work over the last eight years

06:50:47.680 and no election results will ever diminish that. So thank you so much.

06:51:07.840 Well, that cut off abruptly. Maybe they didn't pay their bill. So that was it. I will say that

06:51:16.560 was the first time i can remember seeing what i would describe as authenticity coming from

06:51:23.120 jagmeet singh when he was tearing up there i'm not trying to pick on the person i know he just lost

06:51:28.000 but um usually i found him to be very kind of um slogany and teflon and he would just say stuff and

06:51:34.640 move past things without really listening to what people were saying but him breaking down there i

06:51:39.280 i did notice that was a big change um and so just curious to get your thoughts on that that now like

06:51:44.720 you just said do you still feel that he is destroyed the party or do you think there's a

06:51:48.960 chance i don't know that the kids in the back room can okay no he's a man child he he had zero

06:51:55.760 messaging discipline um he acted juvenile during the debates it's one thing to sort of be tactically

06:52:02.640 capable of interrupting somebody effectively with clear points that counteract their influence and

06:52:09.920 each but he didn't have any of that he was he was uh undisciplined he had no message discipline

06:52:17.440 he didn't differentiate himself in the little party and the fundamental conceit

06:52:21.600 of the entire jagmeet singh um moment as the leader of this party was entirely self-serving

06:52:29.520 and people knew that i mean the the discussions about his pension he could never deal with the

06:52:34.400 pension discussion in the way that i thought was incumbent on him to deal with it which is

06:52:38.880 to say i work for the working class people here this is not about a specific time frame this is

06:52:44.560 not about a specific moment this is about making the arguments that count that the liberal party

06:52:50.320 will forget about if i'm not here to be their conscience and here's why i'm going to make those

06:52:55.520 arguments and here's why i'm the one that's supposed to make those arguments effectively

06:52:59.440 he literally had you know when a conservative like me can make a better ndp argument than he can oh

06:53:04.320 sorry uh we're just gonna get you off we have pierre paulia of leader of the conservative

06:53:08.560 party who is now my message to canadians the promise that was made to me and to all of you

06:53:15.040 is that anybody from anywhere could achieve anything that through hard work you could get a

06:53:19.840 great life you have a nice affordable home on a safe street my purpose in politics is

06:53:26.800 and will continue to be to restore that promise thank you

06:53:49.200 to the candidates who ran under our banner as conservatives to the volunteers who knocked on

06:53:57.520 the doors made phone calls put up lawn signs rallied at our events donated their hard or hard

06:54:02.960 earned money to our cause i thank you from the bottom of my heart to the millions of people who

06:54:08.720 voted for the conservative party and put their hopes and dreams in our vision thank you it will

06:54:15.760 It will be an honour to continue to fight for you and to be a champion of your cause as we go forward.

06:54:45.760 me battre pour vous, parce que j'ai un honneur d'être votre voix, c'est un honneur de me

06:54:51.860 battre pour les valeurs conservatrices pour lesquelles vous avez voté, et surtout, ça

06:54:57.660 va être un honneur de continuer d'avancer la promesse du Canada, que chacun ici au Canada

06:55:03.720 qui travaille fort peut avoir une belle vie, une belle maison abordable dans une communauté

06:55:09.000 sécuritaire. C'est ça notre vision, et on va le ramener chez nous. Merci beaucoup.

06:55:15.760 To my fellow Conservatives, we have much to celebrate tonight.

06:55:23.560 We've gained well over 20 seats.

06:55:25.420 We got the highest share of vote our party has received since 1988.

06:55:35.500 We denied the NDP and Liberals enough seats to form a coalition government meeting.

06:55:45.760 And we did all of this in a very difficult environment.

06:55:50.520 That said, we are cognizant of the fact that we didn't quite get over the finish line yet.

06:55:57.280 We know that change is needed, but change is hard to come by.

06:56:04.400 It takes time. It takes work.

06:56:07.340 And that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight so that we can have an even better result

06:56:11.540 the next time the Canadians decide the future for the country.

06:56:15.760 Canadians, Canadians have opted for a razor thin minority government, a virtual tie in the vote

06:56:36.000 count. So I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government.

06:56:42.240 No, no. We'll have plenty of opportunity to debate and disagree. But tonight we come together as Canadians. We will do our job. Yes, we will do our job to hold the government to account. But first, we congratulate people from all political backgrounds on participating in the democratic process.

06:57:06.200 And as I said, while we will do our constitutional duty of holding government to account and proposing better alternatives,

06:57:14.120 we will always put Canada first as we stare down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President Trump.

06:57:21.340 Conservatives will work with the Prime Minister and all parties with the common goal of defending Canada's interests

06:57:27.440 and getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty and the Canadian people.

06:57:36.200 I want to thank my Conservative team, my caucus, my members of the Conservative staff and others

06:57:48.680 who've helped reshape the entire political landscape in this country.

06:57:53.860 Conservatives have achieved major breakthroughs tonight.

06:57:56.500 We brought in record support from blue-collar and unionized workers, youth, new Canadians.

06:58:02.980 we gave voices to countless people across this country who've been left out and left behind for

06:58:10.420 far too long we won the big debates of our time on the carbon tax on inflation on housing on the

06:58:16.900 drug prices on crime conservatives have been leading the debate and we will continue to put

06:58:22.940 forward the best arguments to improve the lives of our people right across this country but we

06:58:28.000 will not stop there. Every single day, our conservative caucus and I will be holding

06:58:33.380 the government to account on behalf of the millions of Canadians who believed in the message

06:58:38.340 of change.

06:58:58.000 J'ai eu l'honneur de parcourir le pays, parler aux milliers de personnes qui ont partagé leurs préoccupations, leurs peines, leurs espoirs.

06:59:08.480 Everywhere I went, hardworking people took precious time out of their day to tell me about their struggles, their pain, their fears, but also their hopes and dreams.

06:59:20.200 welders and waitresses, farmers and factory workers,

06:59:24.120 seniors, small business owners and single mothers,

06:59:28.400 young Canadians and young families pleading for the chance to own a home,

06:59:33.140 parents who worried that their kids would never be able to move out of their home,

06:59:37.400 grandparents who saw their grandchildren suffering from the shortfalls of our economy,

06:59:43.540 and countless others who are afraid to go outside because of the rising wave of crime.

06:59:49.280 All of these stories touched my heart and gave me inspiration to work towards something better.

06:59:57.540 These people continue to need voices, and I will continue to fight for them every day and every day.

07:00:04.620 We will never give up on fighting for the Canadian people.

07:00:14.220 Thank you.

07:00:15.060 we hear your stories we will carry those stories with us into parliament

07:00:21.420 we will not forget the people for whom we work and for whom we fight every day now i know that

07:00:28.080 some of you might be disappointed that change did not get over the finish line tonight change

07:00:33.920 takes time most of all it requires that we never give up because our people and our country are

07:00:41.740 worth fighting for.

07:01:11.740 changement. Je sais que vous êtes déçus. Le changement est difficile et ça prend du temps.

07:01:17.740 Surtout, ça veut dire qu'on ne peut pas, on ne peut jamais lâcher. Parce que notre pays et son peuple

07:01:25.740 méritent qu'on se batte pour eux. I will never give up on fighting for everyone who stood with us today

07:01:31.740 and the millions of people who voted for other parties.

07:01:35.740 And so, my message tonight, for the single mother working two jobs but still has an empty fridge and an empty bank account,

07:01:46.260 for the young people who despair at never being able to afford a home,

07:01:51.180 for the seniors on fixed incomes whose savings are eroded by inflation and no longer feel safe in their local neighborhood parks,

07:01:59.320 for those who are now living in fear and terror because of crime,

07:02:04.100 for those worried about losing their jobs because of unacceptable tariffs from the United States of America,

07:02:10.280 for all of those who feel left behind and forgotten, my message is one of hope.

07:02:16.080 Change will take time, but we will fight for that change, and we will deliver that change,

07:02:21.260 and we will never give up on fighting for the great Canadian promise that anyone from anywhere can achieve anything,

07:02:29.240 that hard work gets you a great life in a beautiful house on a safe street protected by our brave

07:02:36.240 troops under our proud flag. Canada first, Canada always. Let's bring it home. Thank you very much,

07:02:44.660 Canada. Merci beaucoup, Canada.

07:02:59.240 There's something tender about, there's something hidden about, there's something all generations can have and can hold.

07:03:19.420 We break down the walls and break out.

07:03:22.240 coming back to us here here we are hi folks okay we're into hour seven of our live broadcast here

07:03:33.480 we just heard from conservative leader pierre poly of on stage there with his wife anna poly

07:03:38.020 of anna joined the show about five hours ago now um we had her on to start off the live show at

07:03:44.140 7 p.m so yeah about five hours ago uh chris sims thanks for stepping in here and helping us out

07:03:50.200 with hosting appreciate that um you know i'm not used to looking at these uh bright studio lights

07:03:55.240 so i'm like taking breaks to just go outside and uh get get out of the bright lights but i i'm

07:04:00.980 wondering what what did you what did you think of poly of speech he seemed to hit all the right

07:04:05.660 notes obviously there's a bit of disappointment on the conservative side particularly for poly of

07:04:10.460 i mean it looks like he will lose his own seat which is truly unbelievable but aside from that

07:04:16.460 there's just so much good news. When you look at the numbers, it's really almost shocking

07:04:20.440 to see how wrong the pollsters were, how much better Pierre Polyev performed. I mean,

07:04:27.460 he mentioned that he got more higher percentage of the popular vote than any conservative party

07:04:32.700 since the 80s. Really, I mean, this is a tremendous, it should be victory. It looks

07:04:38.720 like they have held a liberal NDP coalition to below that majority threshold. So, you know,

07:04:44.480 there's lots and lots of things to be happy about.

07:04:47.760 And yet, obviously, it was not the result that Pierre Polyev would have wanted.

07:04:51.220 So what are your thoughts?

07:04:53.020 Especially close to home.

07:04:54.840 Like, this is a really weird election.

07:04:57.340 Like, this is a really weird election.

07:04:59.900 I'm just looking at Elections Canada right now.

07:05:02.820 As of right now, the Conservatives have 41.7% of the vote.

07:05:07.560 As I was saying, to give people perspective,

07:05:09.920 prime minister stephen harper won his strong stable majority government with i think 39.6

07:05:16.980 percent of the vote so like polyev's right in that he's got like a huge popular vote for a

07:05:23.440 conservative party and a conservative leader but the strangest thing is happening back home

07:05:28.240 so while he was busy crossing you know canada and going to those rallies and meeting with the people

07:05:35.000 that he was just talking about there and I know he's been meeting with them which is why he's got

07:05:41.880 people like the Boilermakers Union supporting him and the Pipe Workers Union supporting him

07:05:48.280 and just full disclosure I've known Polyev for quite a while like a long time we were staffers

07:05:55.720 at the same time we're the same generation we basically hit Parliament Hill at the same time

07:06:00.740 And so I've worked quite closely with him.

07:06:02.960 I used to book him on my show all the time when I had a radio show and a TV show there in Ottawa.

07:06:09.980 If he loses his seat, this is going to be hard on him because he was always he was a really young member of parliament when he won that riding first.

07:06:20.000 He took it away from a sitting cabinet minister.

07:06:24.220 So he was a big upstart upset kind of guy back then.

07:06:27.140 That was long before he became a husband and a dad.

07:06:30.820 And I would say this of anybody, no matter what the party is, we grow.

07:06:35.300 We grow as we grow up and we, you know, find somebody to marry and have kids.

07:06:40.380 And so if he does lose that seat, that will be difficult for him.

07:06:45.240 But him coming right out of the gate and saying, I will remain on and I will continue.

07:06:50.920 He kept using the word continue.

07:06:52.720 I think that will give a lot of the, I would call it the conservative movement, a little

07:06:58.000 bit of stability going forward.

07:06:59.500 so we will have to see does this mean then that he asks one of his members of parliament in say

07:07:05.240 Alberta for example to step aside and allow him to do a by-election because I was mentioning

07:07:12.020 before you came back Candace that I can't really see how long this current setup if these seats

07:07:17.960 stay about the same how long these current setup will last in the house of commons when it's the

07:07:23.940 block that is holding the balance of power that the liberals are having to rely on how is that

07:07:29.560 going to fit the narrative of team canada strong elbows up and all that jazz so very odd election

07:07:36.320 tonight to your point there's been a lot of seats that have flipped like in the conservative column

07:07:42.200 so the conservatives are definitely uh winning more seats than the polls were saying they were

07:07:47.520 going to and they're flipping some pretty important seats have we confirmed whether or not andrew

07:07:52.480 Lawton has won his seat yet. Yes, we called it Elgin Thomas, London South. So Andrew Lawton is

07:07:58.780 your new member of Parliament. We're very excited about that. Andrew, of course, is a long time

07:08:02.700 radio host in London. And he hosted a show, The Andrew Lawton Show, for us at True North,

07:08:07.100 who's a long time friend and colleague. And we're very excited for him. And Chris Sims,

07:08:11.880 our other former former, actually, I don't know if you had overlap with Aaron. I did. Yeah.

07:08:15.840 When I was at the Canadian Tax Federation, he was the director of the program called Generation

07:08:20.320 screwed trying to engage young people at the time in university campuses. And he went on to become

07:08:26.880 an independent journalist, a documentary filmmaker. And, you know, I hate to lose independent

07:08:31.200 journalists to the party machine. But that said, I think that this, you know, out of all the party

07:08:37.800 machines out in the country, I think that the Conservative Party under Pierre Polyev is not

07:08:41.880 a bad one to lose these young or these former independent journalists and now members of

07:08:48.820 Parliament. David, I want to bring you in on this. So we're just waiting for Mark Carney. He's

07:08:53.380 expected to take the stage any moment now. We will throw to that as soon as it comes on.

07:08:58.340 What did you read from Pierre Polyev up on stage? How do you suspect that he's taking the news? And

07:09:05.220 do you think he has any concerns that, you know, there might be a movement to replace him as leader?

07:09:12.540 Look, I think one of the themes has been conservative infighting. You know, we talked

07:09:17.360 about the marginal way in which the PPCs affected several ridings unnecessarily for no gain for the

07:09:27.300 conservative movement. Well, I'll just quickly jump in and then I'll go back to you. I'm looking

07:09:31.700 at these Brampton ridings. There's three ridings in Brampton. Brampton is very difficult to

07:09:37.320 understand through polling because it's quite heavily ethnic Indo-Canadians. But, you know,

07:09:43.860 we're talking about Brampton Caledon riding looks like the difference here is fewer than 200 votes

07:09:50.100 Brampton center is separated by you know 120 we have Brampton south separated by 300 250

07:10:00.660 um and of course in each of those ridings that's more than how many the PPC got so PPC got very

07:10:05.780 very small numbers you know a few hundred but but that's that's the difference in all of these

07:10:10.420 ridings um in around brampton so i mean just right there those four writings the conservatives could

07:10:15.300 have won if that vote was consolidated uh apologies for interrupting you can continue

07:10:20.180 no i mean you're making the point and i think the other the other angle to this was the

07:10:25.380 obvious dynamic between uh doug ford's team and pierre's team in the middle of the campaign and

07:10:32.100 some of the confusion i think for canadians around the liberal party attempt to litigate donald trump

07:10:39.380 instead of the past decade of their mismanagement of the country and unfortunately there was a you

07:10:45.940 know the liberals did a good job of uh splitting the conservative movement at least playing on the

07:10:51.620 tension that exists between pierre's campaign team and um and the ontario campaign team so

07:10:59.220 so i think one of the themes here is that it's disappointing i think he was addressing that

07:11:03.220 in his first remark where he said i will lead on i think you know he has to address what's

07:11:08.100 happening with carlton he's got to address the fact that obviously there's people that would

07:11:11.940 position themselves to replace him um i i think it's really one of the features that i've got

07:11:17.780 to get the numbers on this but voter turnout apparently was only around 60 percent

07:11:22.900 so for this extraordinary change election where everything's hanging in the balance

07:11:28.100 incredibly consequential i think a lot of canadians um you know are kind of i don't know what what

07:11:35.940 the word is if it's apathy or or something like that i think that the other theme that is so

07:11:42.820 interesting about this election is just how wrong these polls are especially the aggregating polls

07:11:47.860 you know 338 it should just quit it's the you know it's complete misdirection um effectively

07:11:55.780 you know we knew that there were polls that they include that are you know pure kind of

07:12:00.420 register voter bell curve polls at best that don't do any of the necessary preliminary work to frame

07:12:07.780 the cohorts that they're measuring or compare them to previous cohorts or to try and arrive

07:12:12.420 at a likely voter cohort and yet in canada this somehow passes and gets included in national

07:12:20.660 metrics that people use to guide how they're thinking about it and that does a disservice

07:12:24.580 to the conservative party i think a lot of people you know kandace you said just just listening and

07:12:29.060 watching the polls just made you depressed all the time if i had said to you you know the way

07:12:33.220 this will turn out it'll basically be like 42 to 40 42 right you'd have been thrilled at how close

07:12:40.340 it was but i think these polls and the way they're measured needs to be questioned understood i think

07:12:45.940 we do need to figure out the get out the vote strategy somehow it's got to be slightly more

07:12:51.540 sophisticated slightly better and we've got to figure out how to consolidate our own team a

07:12:56.260 little bit you know a few of those marginal differences and you'd see a conservative majority

07:13:02.340 i think one of the one of the big um so the big losers the pollsters uh especially the poll

07:13:08.500 aggregators mainstream media which didn't hold carney accountable and didn't really follow up

07:13:13.220 on a lot of the key stories and also the ndp the complete self-destruction of what used to be a

07:13:19.140 party that had significance in canadian politics now they can sit in an suv well i just want to

07:13:25.060 jump in with one more uh big loser of the night i think this is a point that i heard ezra levant

07:13:29.860 making about an hour ago on his broadcast alberpidics is so interesting but we heard during

07:13:35.460 the campaign from people around doug ford specifically corey tonight who is his chief

07:13:42.340 of staff and ran his campaign and the whole idea was that they were saying that pauliev needed to

07:13:47.380 pivot he was running a bad campaign that it wasn't going well for him just interfering in a really

07:13:52.740 unappealing way. I mean, it is not a good look to see conservatives infighting. There's no reason

07:13:59.360 for it, right? During the campaign, support your team. After the campaign ends, raise your

07:14:04.660 criticism. But for them to come out in the middle of the campaign was so unbecoming.

07:14:09.260 Ezra made the point that in the last election, which just happened a few months ago in 2025,

07:14:14.480 Doug Ford was elected with around 42% of the vote. Well, we're being told right now that the

07:14:21.260 popular vote coming in in Ontario for Pierre Polyev and the Conservatives is 45%. So Pierre

07:14:28.720 Polyev is getting 45% of the vote in Ontario, not nationally, in Ontario. That's where it is right

07:14:36.760 now. Doug Ford only got 42. So no to Corey Tanike and Doug Ford and the people in and around

07:14:44.340 Queen's Park saying that they could have run a better campaign, that Pierre didn't do very well.

07:14:47.900 that is wrong. Pierre outperformed you in Ontario. Shame on you for getting involved

07:14:52.580 in this election in a negative way. I don't want to hear from you unless you're promoting the

07:14:56.320 candidate. Again, raise your criticisms after the campaign. And I think that Pierre's performance

07:15:01.660 hopefully should quiet them up. Yeah, it was wild to watch. Did you see the interview with

07:15:09.680 Tucker Carlson and uh Maxine Brunette yeah I purposely did not watch that one it was it was

07:15:18.080 you know you have an opportunity to basically go on the offensive against somebody like Mark Carney

07:15:23.760 who's got a series of really destructive very progressive uh you know climate alarmist policies

07:15:31.500 that will set Canada back another half decade if he's allowed to persist in them um and and yet

07:15:38.220 that you spend that time going after your cousin,

07:15:42.460 you know, your sort of conservative cousin, Pierre Polyev,

07:15:46.680 and pushing, you know, Tucker Carlson

07:15:49.100 to make these mindlessly uninformed views

07:15:52.700 and promote them.

07:15:54.280 You know, I know a lot of that stuff is just theater,

07:15:56.740 but it's unfortunate theater.

07:15:58.880 It hurts us, it hurts the spirit

07:16:01.860 of what needs to be a coherent conservative movement

07:16:05.020 to try and turn Canada around

07:16:06.500 based on just better ideas.

07:16:08.840 And the stakes are so high to try and get this right,

07:16:11.920 try and find a cooperative, collaborative way

07:16:13.820 to articulate what the country can be for our kids,

07:16:17.500 for everybody's kids.

07:16:19.120 And if you spend that time fighting each other

07:16:22.200 and allowing the liberals to persist

07:16:23.780 in all of these terrible ideas that are degrading the country,

07:16:28.340 then it's just a missed opportunity.

07:16:29.800 And I think that's one of the things that I hope,

07:16:32.220 when people are talking about litigating

07:16:33.680 the outcome of this election,

07:16:34.600 think they were thinking about, do we have to, you know, talk about another leader, I

07:16:39.500 don't think that there's any place for leadership conversation right now. I think the conversation

07:16:44.340 has to be a really solid look inside and asking what we're doing with this PPC movement, letting

07:16:50.880 the perfect be the enemy of the pretty good. And what we're doing with our provincial versus

07:16:57.400 federal division of labor and what we're doing, frankly, just how organized we get tactically

07:17:02.120 in terms of sharing critical data between some of the municipalities and the provinces

07:17:06.880 and the feds, if we're running a coherent conservative campaign, I think the balkanization

07:17:12.520 of the conservative movement is something that has to be addressed.

07:17:15.080 Because without it, these numbers would look very different.

07:17:17.920 We'd be in a position to potentially inform the government.

07:17:20.240 And we can't keep losing by defeating ourselves anymore.

07:17:24.780 Well, 100%.

07:17:25.400 And one of the things that I've noticed, and it's just becoming a pet peeve, but you said

07:17:29.360 that tucker carlson sort of mindlessly making comments on uninformed i'm seeing a lot of big

07:17:34.280 conservative american accounts kind of coming down on pierre and repeating this nonsense narrative

07:17:40.060 that he blew a 20-point lead i mean yes that on like a very shallow superficial understanding of

07:17:46.720 politics sure but it became a totally different race when mark when pierre justin trudeau stepped

07:17:52.220 down and mark carney stepped in and if you're looking again just to go back to the popular vote

07:17:58.640 But I mean, Pierre got 41 or 42 percent. Like that's that's a win. That's a victory. That's a majority government under different circumstances. So to sort of like ignore all that context and pretend that he just blew a 20 point lead is just such a surface level misunderstanding.

07:18:14.340 and I just I don't have time for these big American accounts who are out there I don't know

07:18:19.180 what they're trying to do like rage farm against Canadian conservatives like hey guys um we were

07:18:25.200 doing just fine up here right until you guys started interfering in our election narrative

07:18:29.460 and it was President Trump um that put the dagger in our back and I think it's unforgivable what he

07:18:34.780 has done as well to Canadian conservatives so I'm a little frustrated by uh people who don't really

07:18:42.300 know very much about Canadian politics pretending that somehow, you know, they're going to own 0.96

07:18:46.460 Pierre Polyev by pointing out something really stupid that isn't true at all. Chris, what do 0.97

07:18:51.960 you think? Well, they loved him. They loved him. You know, I got more comments from people watching

07:18:57.980 him munch the apple and talk to the reporter. I mean, that played in the States. He's had a couple

07:19:03.240 of these that have really played broadly in the U.S. They really liked him. I think what's happened

07:19:08.060 there, Candace, is the conservative movement in the states has its own Achilles heel.

07:19:13.180 And one of those things has been that the populism under Donald Trump has taken over.

07:19:18.180 And there's a little bit of a witch hunt for anybody that's a Republican in name only.

07:19:21.560 And you can see this in very unusual situations like Thomas Massey.

07:19:26.020 There's a great guy out of Texas.

07:19:27.760 He's the guy with the eye patch.

07:19:29.060 His name escapes me right now.

07:19:30.900 Dan Crenshaw?

07:19:31.900 See, I've kind of flipped on him.

07:19:33.440 Oh, look, it looks like Mark Carney is coming up.

07:19:36.740 so not not that i want to do this folks i'd actually rather sit and talk to uh david and

07:19:41.060 chris here but uh this is our prime minister he's won the election so let's go to mr mark carney

07:19:59.460 that is nepean that is the spirit of nepean behind me right there

07:20:06.740 Bonsoir, tout le monde. Bonsoir. Oh, quel bonsoir. C'est une bonne bonne soirée.

07:20:14.440 I have a question. Who's ready? Who's ready? Who's ready to stand up for Canada with me?

07:20:30.040 And who's ready? Who's ready to build Canada strong?

07:20:36.740 Okay, we got that settled.

07:20:40.080 That's good.

07:20:41.080 Before we start, I would like to congratulate the other parties, the campaign, and all the

07:20:49.620 work they have done.

07:20:51.620 I would like to thank you for your service towards Canada, now and in the future.

07:21:01.400 I want to thank the leaders of the other parties.

07:21:04.780 I want to salute the contribution of Jagmeet Singh, leading on Progressive Values.

07:21:16.180 Elizabeth May will be returning to the country.

07:21:22.380 And I want to congratulate Pierre Polyev on a hard-fought, very good campaign, his commitment

07:21:27.700 to the country that we both love.

07:21:34.780 They all have many, many more contributions to our land.

07:21:39.220 Thank you, Diana.

07:21:40.280 Thank you, Diana, for your work on this campaign.

07:21:46.520 Thank you, Diana, for the commitment and compassion you bring to everything that you do.

07:21:54.060 Tonight, it simply would not have been possible without you

07:21:57.460 and without the support of our four children who inspire me to service every single day.

07:22:10.240 I also want to salute the women and men who put their name on the ballot from all parties.

07:22:17.620 Thank you for standing up to serve our country at this critical time.

07:22:21.260 And for those who were elected, particularly those Liberals who were elected, I am looking

07:22:31.820 forward to working together to deliver for Canadians.

07:22:35.980 And Bruce, yes, Bruce Van Joy, I'm looking forward to working with Bruce Van Joy.

07:22:44.740 Fantastic. He is a great – he will be a great MP.

07:22:51.740 We're going to have fun tonight. Yes, we're going to have fun.

07:22:55.740 Of course, I would like to thank the thousands of volunteers here tonight and across the country

07:23:03.740 who have given their time to catch up to the port, to make calls,

07:23:09.740 to exchange with their neighbors and members of their community to give us a strong government.

07:23:26.060 You know, I chose to enter politics because I felt we needed big changes in this country,

07:23:32.220 But big changes guided by strong Canadian values.

07:23:38.600 Values that I learned at the dinner table from my parents, Bob and Verley,

07:23:42.600 and from my siblings.

07:23:44.800 I appreciate this more in retrospect from my siblings.

07:23:48.320 My siblings, Brenda, Sean, and Brian.

07:23:51.300 Values that I learned on the ice from my coaches.

07:23:55.120 Values that have been reinforced as I've met with Canadians across this great country.

07:24:02.220 And those include three values that I want to highlight this evening.

07:24:06.580 Humility. It's Canada, after all.

07:24:09.740 Ambition. It's Canada, after all.

07:24:12.220 And unity. It's Canada.

07:24:19.660 I love you. Right back. Right back.

07:24:23.460 These are good values. These are Canadian values.

07:24:27.680 Values that I will do my best.

07:24:30.620 I'm just getting worked up here.

07:24:31.920 these are values that i will do my best to uphold every day as your prime minister you betcha

07:24:43.280 okay well you have to judge after this next section because i am going to begin

07:24:47.520 i am going to begin with the value of humility and by admitting that i have much to be humble

07:24:54.000 about that's true over my long that's not an applause line it's just a statement of fact

07:25:00.400 Over my long career, I have made many mistakes, and I will make more.

07:25:09.420 But I commit to admitting them openly, to correcting them quickly, and always learning from them.

07:25:21.580 Humility underscores the importance of governing as a team in cabinet and in caucus,

07:25:28.580 and working constructively with all parties across Parliament.

07:25:35.740 Of working in partnership with the provinces and the territories

07:25:40.160 and with Indigenous peoples.

07:25:44.300 And at this time, it underscores the value of bringing together

07:25:48.240 labour, business, civil society

07:25:49.900 to advance the nation-building investments we need to transform our economy.

07:25:55.520 Humility is also about recognizing that one of the responsibilities of government is to

07:26:04.740 prepare for the worst, not hope for the best.

07:26:09.460 As I've been warned, America wants our land, our resources, our water, our country.

07:26:18.120 Never.

07:26:19.120 never but these are not these are not idle threats president Trump is trying

07:26:27.520 to break us so that America can own us that will never that will never ever 0.64

07:26:34.280 happen but we but we also must recognize the reality that our world has

07:26:45.160 fundamentally changed there is also for me as I stand before you this evening

07:26:53.080 humility in recognizing that well many have chosen to place your trust in me

07:27:00.920 trust in the Liberal Party millions of our fellow citizens preferred a different

07:27:07.480 outcome and my message to every Canadian is this no matter where you live no

07:27:14.040 No matter what language you speak, no matter how you voted, I will always do my best to

07:27:19.720 represent everyone who calls Canada home.

07:27:28.820 You know, during this short campaign, I went to Saskatchewan and Alberta a couple of times.

07:27:37.240 Even though, you know, we're Liberals, it's tough out there, I grew up there.

07:27:42.960 But I went because I intend to govern for all Canadians.

07:27:48.560 And at the end of this campaign, all Québécois and Québécoises opened their doors and gave

07:27:57.560 their confidence.

07:27:58.560 I am deeply touched on it and I thank you.

07:28:04.360 La langue française, la culture québécoise, elles sont au cœur de l'identité canadienne.

07:28:16.260 Elles définissent le pays que j'aime tant et je vais les défendre sans relâche.

07:28:26.360 Thank you.

07:28:56.360 So, as we come here after this consequential, most consequential election, let's put an

07:29:17.360 end, let's put an end to the division and anger of the past.

07:29:25.400 We are all Canadian, and my government will work for and with everyone.

07:29:38.100 I began with humility, but Canadians are ambitious.

07:29:43.280 And now, more than ever, it is a time for ambition.

07:29:46.800 It is a time to be bold, to meet this crisis with overwhelming positive force of a united

07:29:53.640 Canada. Because we, we are going to build. Build, baby, build.

07:30:07.060 Exactly. Throughout, well, no, we're building now. We've gotten over that bit.

07:30:18.440 Throughout, throughout our history, there have been turning points. Throughout our

07:30:22.800 history there have been turning points when the world's fortunes were in the

07:30:25.740 balance. That was at this that was the case at the start of the Second World

07:30:30.480 War just as it was at the end of the Cold War. And each time Canada chose to

07:30:37.180 step up to assert ourselves as a free sovereign and ambitious nation to lead

07:30:43.720 the path of democracy and freedom and because we are Canadian to do so with

07:30:50.820 compassion and generosity. We are, we are once again, we are once again at one of those

07:31:01.160 hinge moments of history. Our old relationship with the United States, a relationship based 0.95

07:31:08.020 on steadily increasing integration, is over. The system of open global trade anchored by

07:31:16.740 the United States, a system that Canada has relied on since the Second World War, a system

07:31:23.240 that while not perfect, has helped deliver prosperity for a country for decades, is over.

07:31:33.300 But it's also our new reality.

07:31:36.740 We are over, we are over the shock of the American betrayal, but we should never forget

07:31:43.160 the lessons.

07:31:44.160 But you're going to take us forward.

07:31:46.420 We have to look out for ourselves.

07:31:50.660 And above all, we have to take care of each other.

07:32:02.920 When I sit down with President Trump,

07:32:06.260 it will be to discuss the future economic and security relationship

07:32:10.760 between two sovereign nations.

07:32:14.160 And it will be with our full knowledge that we have many, many other options than the

07:32:26.040 United States to build prosperity for all Canadians.

07:32:30.400 Nous allons renforcer nos relations avec des partenaires fiables en Europe, en Asie

07:32:40.940 et ailleurs.

07:32:41.940 Et si les États-Unis ne veulent plus jouer un rôle de premier plan dans l'économie

07:32:48.680 mondiale, le Canada le fera.

07:32:52.400 We will leave North America.

07:32:55.940 Nous sommes maîtres chez nous.

07:32:58.440 Nous allons bâtir des millions de logements, une superpuissance énergétique, de bonnes carrières dans les emplois spécialisés, et une seule économie canadienne, Patrice.

07:33:10.960 We will chart a new path forward, because this is Canada, and we decide what happens here.

07:33:18.380 we will need to think big and act bigger your phones ring

07:33:32.980 all right just hang on it's okay

07:33:39.960 it might be important

07:33:43.720 we will need to do things previously thought impossible at speeds we haven't seen in generations

07:33:54.800 it's time to build twice as many homes every year with an entirely new housing industry

07:34:01.640 using canadian technology canadian skilled workers canadian lumber

07:34:06.380 it's time to build new trade and energy corridors working in partnership with the provinces

07:34:17.220 territories and indigenous peoples it's time it's time to build hundreds of thousands of

07:34:27.020 not just good jobs but good careers in the skilled trades it's time to build canada into

07:34:34.760 an energy superpower in both clean and conventional energy.

07:34:40.140 And it's time to build an industrial strategy that makes Canada more competitive while fighting

07:34:46.040 climate change.

07:34:52.200 We will build a Canadian economy, not 13, with a government committed to free trade

07:34:57.100 in Canada by Canada Day.

07:35:01.660 The point is that we can give ourselves far more than the Americans can ever take away.

07:35:11.820 But even given that, I want to be clear.

07:35:14.460 The coming days and months will be challenging, and they will call for some sacrifices.

07:35:21.280 But we will share those sacrifices by supporting our workers and our businesses.

07:35:26.900 The challenges in front of us are intimidating, and it's normal.

07:35:33.900 The big changes, like those that we live, are always worrying.

07:35:40.900 We have a lot of ways to do, but I have confidence.

07:35:44.900 I have confidence in you.

07:35:46.900 I have confidence in Canada.

07:35:49.900 Because Canada is more than a nation.

07:35:57.540 We are and we always will be a confederation.

07:36:01.380 A sacred set of ideas and ideals built on practical foundations.

07:36:06.620 That we know we're not always perfect, but we always strive to be good.

07:36:12.960 We do things because they're right, not because they're easy.

07:36:19.900 that we see kindness as a virtue not as a weakness most importantly we know that our

07:36:26.940 strength lies in our resolve to work together as a country it relies on our unity you know

07:36:34.700 on the second day of this campaign i went to gander where nine where on 9 11 they welcome

07:36:41.660 thousands of passengers into their homes without question or hesitation i sat down with two of the

07:36:48.140 the many heroes of the time, Diane Davis and Beulah Cooper.

07:36:53.120 And during our conversation, they showed me a thank you card that they'd received from

07:36:57.140 a young girl called Ellie, who wrote, your kindness motivates me to use my kindness.

07:37:06.460 That touching phrase captures what Canadians instinctively know, that virtue is like a

07:37:14.000 muscle that grows with its exercise.

07:37:17.820 We become just by doing just acts,

07:37:20.380 brave by doing brave acts.

07:37:22.620 When we are kind, kindness grows.

07:37:25.640 When we seek unity, unity grows.

07:37:28.680 When we are Canadian, Canada grows.

07:37:38.400 And united,

07:37:40.200 united in our history,

07:37:42.100 we have done hard, seemingly impossible things.

07:37:44.880 United, we have built one nation in harsh conditions despite a sometimes hostile neighbor.

07:37:52.880 Yes, they have forum on this, the Americans.

07:37:55.880 United, we have confronted our own past with indigenous peoples. 1.00

07:38:00.880 Unis, nous avons bâti un pays qui rassemble des langues, des cultures et des croyances différentes.

07:38:08.880 Unis, nous avons bâti des institutions culturelles essentielles, comme CBC Radio-Canada.

07:38:20.640 United, we have created universal public health care.

07:38:26.340 And now, in the face of this crisis, united, we are buying Canadian.

07:38:32.020 We are exploring everything this country has to offer.

07:38:34.320 We are supporting our friends and neighbors in the crosshairs of President Trump through a crisis that we did not create.

07:38:42.580 Unite our country and build the strongest economy in the G7, an economy that works for everyone.

07:38:48.860 We will fight back with everything we have to get the best deal

07:39:18.840 for Canada. We will protect our workers and businesses. And above all, we will build an

07:39:26.180 independent future for our great country. A future that makes the greatest country on

07:39:33.200 the earth even better. Together, we will build a Canada worthy of our values. We will build

07:39:39.780 Canada strong, Canada free, Canada forever. Vive le Canada. Thank you very much.

07:39:48.840 Let me just unweep myself.

07:40:05.100 Well, interesting speech there.

07:40:06.120 One thing I want to note is that he doubled down on the strange idea that our relationship with the United States was over.

07:40:12.580 You know, I heard him say that once on the campaign trail, and I thought it was like a gaffe.

07:40:17.180 I didn't think that that was a good message for the prime minister to say.

07:40:20.980 It seemed out of place.

07:40:22.420 And then again, tonight, it's like, why is he declaring this at this moment?

07:40:27.900 A couple of other things that didn't sit well with me.

07:40:31.380 He was congratulating his colleague in Carleton.

07:40:36.120 The writing hasn't been called yet, but he was sort of jokingly congratulating him,

07:40:41.940 saying that he had, I guess, you know, taking a jab at Pierpaglia of saying,

07:40:46.240 can't wait to work with you, Bruce Fan Choi. It does look like Bruce will win and that Pierre

07:40:50.660 Polly will lose a seat, but it seemed totally classless from my perspective for Mark Carney

07:40:56.380 to be making that point. And, you know, even just hearing him talk about taking the higher road and

07:41:03.160 choosing hope and not division, you know, from a person who ran what I thought was a fairly nasty

07:41:11.420 campaign just in terms of personal attacks, totally mischaracterizing what Pierre Polyev

07:41:16.700 believes, what his platform was, what he planned to do. You know, you have this opportunity

07:41:24.200 after an election to really try to unite Canadians. And I just saw something very

07:41:30.100 kind of petty and partisan from that speech. David, what were your thoughts?

07:41:36.240 well it's um there are aspects of this speech that i think rang the right bells the problem

07:41:46.480 with mark carney is that i'm never entirely convinced that that's an authentic thing and

07:41:52.960 not simply a pr man um that he knows that those are the right bells to ring and and the reason

07:41:59.200 for that that may sound a little bit petty but the reason for that is because he has these moments

07:42:04.320 you you've referred to one of them but you know throughout the campaign at multiple points he

07:42:10.080 backed away from things that he had said as concessions and i think he's sort of i think

07:42:15.200 he's very pragmatic i think he's technocratic i think he knows that he had to do what it took to

07:42:19.920 win and he's done that and he's won um but i think that there are some real gaps right now in the

07:42:26.880 country and unfortunately i didn't see the seriousness that i thought you know there's

07:42:31.600 sort of this kind of smirky had to go to alberta saskatchewan boy it's tough there were liberals you

07:42:37.920 know there's a little bit of that which i think wants to kind of treat uh like the op-ed that

07:42:44.160 press and manning wrote you know um the reaction to that by people like carney is sort of an eye

07:42:50.320 roll and i i don't think they they are nearly co i just don't think they're coherent on the scale

07:42:57.520 of how the east is entirely supported by the enterprising west period and i think that that

07:43:05.280 gap in the east and the under you know i've talked to friends in quebec they have no idea

07:43:10.400 that alberta funds quebec makes quebec plausible right they have no idea that that ontario people

07:43:16.400 in ontario have no idea that they're poorer than arkansas now they don't know that right they're

07:43:20.720 they're unaware of it or they're sort of left with the sense that it's okay or that there's

07:43:25.280 some sort of gaming of per capita gdp or something the the idea that the country is systemically

07:43:30.800 poorer more crime-ridden suffering from depression and suffering from drug use

07:43:36.640 like the the sort of the decline of the nation over the last 10 years is so significant and so

07:43:41.520 serious then the the the you know the bright point of a carny takeover of this party is if he is a

07:43:49.520 serious person and he does intend to get industry built and he does intend to make us a conventional

07:43:55.280 and clean energy superpower and he will be humble um in other words if everything that he said is

07:44:01.360 true and it's not simply a pr move then there's hope because this is what the country needs

07:44:07.440 if it turns out not to be true then i think that uh the conversations i've been having

07:44:13.280 when we talked about this a little bit earlier are that people have had it now and i and i don't

07:44:18.320 think that when i when i see some of the jokey stuff i don't think that the the seriousness with

07:44:24.400 which people see the decline of their cities and their purchasing power and their dollar

07:44:31.040 and what they get paid and the decline of the public services that they pay

07:44:35.680 an enormous uh record-breaking tax load to support and get treated very poorly by

07:44:41.920 is being taken seriously enough and so i um i hope the best for mr carney i think

07:44:48.960 you know um it took my son this anglican church and he wondered why we really had to pray for

07:44:54.400 Prime Minister Carney. I said, because that's what we believe. We believe that that's an

07:45:01.100 essential part of what it means to be, you know, Christian and sort of have this idea that we want

07:45:07.680 him to lead with wisdom and grace. But for that to be taken seriously by large parts of the country,

07:45:15.200 it's got to be accompanied by some serious action. I think he's going to have to act very quickly to

07:45:20.540 just say we're expediting the northern gateway pipeline and we're going to take the kxl pipeline

07:45:26.060 concept to president trump and get that signed off and get that built i think if he does those

07:45:30.840 two things you'd have a reprieve from the current sentiment that's in the air in alberta if he goes

07:45:36.220 in the direction of industrial taxes and finding a way for that to shadow box the energy industry

07:45:41.700 in alberta which is what people here really fear then that energy tax sort of loophole that he's

07:45:47.880 using to go back after the fossil fuel sort of bogeyman that they are always concerned about

07:45:54.340 as climate alarmists will become a breaking point, I think, for the country. And I don't sense from

07:46:01.260 his response right now that he's kind of stepped right into that. There's something still kind of

07:46:07.020 performative about the way that he speaks that doesn't leave him with conviction. I hope that

07:46:12.120 doesn't sound petty, but that's my immediate reaction as I sort of hear it. I know it was

07:46:17.020 perfectly articulated chris did you want to jump in on that yeah to your point and you make a very

07:46:21.740 good one there i think partly why he sounds performative is that it is performative um he's

07:46:27.660 kind of back in the game so to speak i personally when i saw his video with mike myers and they were

07:46:33.420 talking about like references from about 40 years ago and really nothing new um that really spoke

07:46:39.980 volumes to me. And to your point exactly, I sense a really big disconnect between himself and

07:46:48.840 average working people. So people are so strapped right now. We're getting emails every single day

07:46:55.500 at the Taxpayers Federation, somebody saying something along the lines of, I've worked my

07:46:59.920 entire life, I'm holding down a job, but I just can't afford rent. Like I can't afford food.

07:47:06.240 There was a really interesting moment during the campaign just a couple of days ago, where Pierre Polyev was in the Lower Mainland, and he's doing a rally. I think he was in Delta. And a gentleman who looked like he was in his, you know, late 30s, yelled out, I'm working three jobs, and my rent is $5,000 a month.

07:47:26.680 which is true like that is standard for a detached house in vancouver now the house this gentleman

07:47:35.020 was renting was four bedrooms it was built in the 1960s not updated that is standard anybody can go

07:47:41.460 look it up online and i think that there's a big disconnect between how some how hard somebody will

07:47:47.520 need to work to afford five thousand dollars a month for a basic house and mr carney or dr carney

07:47:55.020 I should call him because he has his PhD from Oxford. When he was at the Bank of England,

07:48:01.380 for example, his wage was about $800,000 Canadian. And his housing allowance on top of that

07:48:09.100 was close to half a million dollars. Like, there is a disconnect here. And exactly to your point

07:48:17.320 on energy, I'm very alarmed by Mr. Carney or Prime Minister Carney's statement that he wants

07:48:24.260 to be an energy superpower, but he won't say what kind of energy. Because he states directly in his

07:48:30.600 book repeatedly, values, which I read, 80% of oil and gas must remain in the ground. 80. That's how

07:48:37.900 he feels. He also stated that, he quoted, that 90% of our energy needs around the world can be met

07:48:45.440 through wind and solar. So if this is something that he believes, I just don't see how that lines

07:48:50.680 up with the interests of places like Alberta and Saskatchewan. And also to your point, there's so

07:48:57.200 many areas of Eastern Canada that just don't understand that it's Alberta's oil and gas

07:49:03.140 industry and our workaholism out here that is funding things like their healthcare system in 1.00

07:49:09.940 Nova Scotia, to give you an idea. So I heard a lot from Carney tonight, but again, it doesn't

07:49:16.260 sound like it's actually like it doesn't feel like the chain is actually hitting the gears here

07:49:21.360 but we'll have to wait and see if he's actually going to offer an olive branch to Alberta because

07:49:25.840 um I'm already getting text messages from people saying how upset they are um I need to stress

07:49:31.960 though how odd this feels tonight to take a look again at the popular vote if I may I think that

07:49:39.260 the Conservatives are still at 41.7% of the popular vote, which is a huge high watermark

07:49:47.060 for the Conservatives. Again, Prime Minister Stephen Harper had just over 39% support when

07:49:53.880 he won his majority. And here, Pierre Polyev has got close to 42%. So, and they've flipped a lot

07:50:00.900 of seats blue, including apparently a big one in Windsor. I didn't get a chance to see what the

07:50:05.280 actual name of it was but I just got a text text message from a supporter saying I can't believe

07:50:10.580 that my riding went blue so a lot of hard-fought places have turned blue except this really strange

07:50:17.840 situation with Pierre Polyev while he was out campaigning and meeting people for the past

07:50:23.240 two and a half years back home there was a brush fire starting with Bruce Fanjoy and I guess nobody

07:50:31.140 smelled the smoke in time, because it looks like Pierre Polyev is actually going to lose his riding

07:50:36.400 of Carlton. To be fair, it is a very tight race. Back in 2015, it was a really tight race too.

07:50:42.820 I think Pierre Polyev won it by about 1,200 votes then. Right now, there's about 2,000 votes,

07:50:49.060 a little less than 2,000 votes separating them, and the Liberal is in the lead. So in this situation,

07:50:54.840 Candace, I'd like to know what you think about this. In this situation then, if he's able to

07:50:59.760 consolidate his support from his caucus, which I think he'll be able to do. He's quite well liked

07:51:05.440 by the people in his caucus. I think he's got a lot of loyalty there. Where do you see him trying

07:51:10.260 to go to get a by-election going? A lot of folks are saying to come out to Alberta. I mean, his

07:51:16.200 mom is here. His brother lives here. They're all in Calgary. He grew up there. Do you see him trying

07:51:21.160 that angle? It's an interesting question. I hadn't ever considered it because I didn't think it was

07:51:26.360 possibility that he would lose his his writing and you know for for folks who don't know ottawa

07:51:31.640 very well you know i i had this misperception when i first came to be a political staffer i

07:51:36.440 worked in the harper government briefly and i you know you just kind of assume that everyone

07:51:40.920 in ontario is kind of a liberal um and and then when you get out here it's actually like wow

07:51:45.720 ontario parts of ontario are super conservative and some of my ontario conservative friends are

07:51:50.360 like just as conservative or even more right-wing than the albertans um sorry to say that but it's

07:51:55.400 true oh it was true and uh and and for a riding like carlton you know it's feel it's full full

07:52:02.760 of farmers it's full of uh beef farmers and other kinds of farmers so it's quite a rural riding

07:52:07.960 and so it is quite surprising uh to see the results here i suppose maybe it's becoming more

07:52:14.280 more suburban or maybe i mean surely you know the ottawa area is filled with government bureaucrats

07:52:20.440 and they seem to be the liberals biggest constituency. So yeah, I don't, I don't know.

07:52:25.860 I can't say that I know Pierre Polyev very well. Chris, you seem to know him quite a bit better

07:52:33.320 than I do, or, you know, you've worked with him through the years. So I don't, I don't know where

07:52:36.900 his family lives or where, where his sort of second option was. I would assume that he would

07:52:40.740 look for a seat in and around Ontario close to home. So he doesn't have to travel so much with

07:52:45.720 this young family there. But yeah, it's certainly an interesting scenario where we have a party

07:52:52.760 leader who is, I think the conservative base, the conservatives that I talked to on the ground,

07:52:58.520 there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite to replace the leader. The only people calling for

07:53:02.200 that seem to be people who are from either the Liberal Party or the PPC party, but I'm not hearing

07:53:08.200 it or seeing it from a lot of conservatives. So yeah, I guess that will be the challenge for Pierre

07:53:14.440 going forward because it does look like he is losing his seat and I mean I talked about this

07:53:20.980 earlier on the broadcast but it seems to me that this is going to be a very unstable government I

07:53:25.180 mean you see the numbers at the bottom of the screen they have ticked up for the liberals so

07:53:28.940 172 is what they need for a majority so if things go the way that they are looking it looks like

07:53:37.200 they could team up with the NDP and that would be enough to pass a budget and to create a government

07:53:43.340 of course the ndp doesn't have a leader right now so that'll be interesting as well um david

07:53:49.340 do you have any final thoughts we'll wrap up the live stream in a few minutes here it's uh

07:53:53.020 getting uh close to 2 a.m and um my kids waking up early my children are usually up

07:53:58.060 before the crack of dawn so um you know i think we're all gonna need coffee and maybe something

07:54:03.820 stronger on the weekend to process this it's too early to it's too early to really i think process

07:54:10.780 uh everything i think that the um you know it's time to step back i i think the numbers actually

07:54:21.140 show that there's a strong uh conservative cohort in the country um and i am still amazed i want to

07:54:30.660 look into those voter turnout numbers there's something in that that i just can't believe how

07:54:34.460 can you have 60 of the country only turn out in an election like this i'm very surprised by that

07:54:39.400 but understanding the affordability stuff and how just broke people were.

07:54:43.640 And yeah, I'm shocked by that low burden.

07:54:46.820 It's hard to interrupt.

07:54:47.940 And we've got to look into it and make sure that's right.

07:54:50.420 That's just a note that I got from, from somebody.

07:54:53.040 I think that, I think that the, um,

07:54:56.540 I think it's going to be a chance for us and, you know, there's, there's,

07:55:00.520 you don't want to kind of make this, uh, whatever the language is,

07:55:03.880 just sort of try and see it as a glass half full.

07:55:05.740 but i do think that mark carney has an extraordinarily hard job in front of him

07:55:10.700 right now this lost decade comes with an unbelievable debt crisis an unbelievable

07:55:17.180 productivity crisis an unbelievable crime crisis an immigration crisis a housing crisis i mean the

07:55:24.300 trump crisis that they've used is sort of the pinata that they can keep hitting hoping that

07:55:29.500 it will influence the boomers to vote for them worked but at the end of the day that's going to 0.97

07:55:34.140 go away quickly because it's ephemeral and what we're going to be left with is all the things that

07:55:40.060 we caused or that the liberal party created as problems for the country and now they have to

07:55:45.100 hold that bag and so i do think that there's an opportunity um you know probably in the next 24

07:55:51.580 months to get our act together hopefully to get more consolidation of the conservative vote and

07:55:57.260 And to come up with a game plan and also a narrative that's so attractive that in the next election, we win by a huge landslide and are able to actually invoke really serious change.

07:56:10.000 It might have been a very, very hard situation to come in and be the minority conservative government desperately kind of hanging on to a party, you know, whatever the alternative party would have been where you just wouldn't have been able to have any purchase politically.

07:56:24.200 And that would have been deeply disappointing and would probably fracture the conservative movement even more.

07:56:29.100 I think we have a chance to create unity, figure out our game plan and come back stronger, hopefully within 24 months.

07:56:35.780 Well, it's a very optimistic note to end it on.

07:56:39.060 So I think we'll wrap it up here, folks.

07:56:40.960 We've been going live for some seven hours.

07:56:42.680 Started out with you, Chris Sims, and finished up on the back end with you as well.

07:56:46.240 So I really appreciate your time.

07:56:48.480 Chris Sims is the Alberta director.

07:56:51.020 I'm Alberta director.

07:56:51.980 I can remember if you were out in British Columbia.

07:56:54.200 It's been a long night. I'm pretty tired.

07:56:55.640 But I'm Calverta, director of the Canadian Taxpayer Federation.

07:56:59.240 And then we have David Knightleg, who is a political commentator in Calgary.

07:57:04.060 All right. Thank you so much for joining us.

07:57:05.280 We really appreciate all your time and all of your insights.

07:57:08.520 And to the audience, thanks so much for sticking with us,

07:57:11.120 bearing with us throughout the evening.

07:57:12.200 We really appreciate your support and your support of independent media and Juno News.

07:57:18.360 We'll be back with analysis and updates on the Candace Malcolm show tomorrow

07:57:23.660 and throughout the rest of the week.

07:57:25.080 So thank you so much, everyone.

07:57:26.980 And we'll see you soon.

07:57:28.220 God bless.

07:57:53.660 Thank you.

07:58:23.660 Thank you.

07:58:53.660 Outro Music

Juno News - April 29, 2025

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