Chris Sims, William Cosman and Isaac Haan join me to talk all things election day in Juneau, AKA the pregame show before the Juneau News special election show. We talk all about the campaign, the ups and downs, and our predictions for tonight's vote.
00:00:00.000I think we're going now Chris do you want to welcome us in sure if we're live on the air
00:00:16.860thank you so much for joining us folks my name is Chris Sims I'm the Alberta Director for the
00:00:21.660Canadian Taxpayers Federation I'm here with three of my very dear friends William Cosman and Isaac
00:00:27.780Hi. So they're joining us from the metropolises of Calgary, Victoria. Cosman moved to Victoria.
00:00:35.100He didn't tell me that. And Isaac is up in Edmonton. Guys, we've got a great show for you.
00:00:40.540This is the True North. It's the pregame show. So before, say, a big championship game,
00:00:46.580you know where they do that kind of warm-up show where they go into the locker room and they
00:00:49.800ask about giving 110%. This is that show right now because we are the warm-up show for the huge,
00:00:56.820ginormous Juneau News special election show. So you don't want to miss that. That is starting at
00:01:03.560the top of the clock. So for now, we're going to talk about all of the fun stuff that happened
00:01:08.700during the election, the not so fun stuff that happened during the election, and our brilliant
00:01:13.560predictions. I'm going to go around the horn here. William, I'm going to start with you because I
00:01:18.240think you're geographically closest to me. I'm in Lethbridge right now. William, anything top of
00:01:24.000mind going into today's vote or do you have a big prediction for the for the vote tonight yeah i mean
00:01:31.040you know you just think 12 short weeks ago the outcome of this election was a done deal it was
00:01:38.240going to be a thumping conservative majority government uh the liberals were going to be
00:01:43.580fighting for third place with the new democrats it was going to be uh you know the ushering in
00:01:49.120of a bold new era. And now, of course, we see incredibly tight polls. We see a photo finish
00:01:54.920coming. There's lots of reports that the race is tightening in Ontario and that some people are
00:02:00.700shy about sharing their opinions with pollsters because media unfairly and unflatteringly portray
00:02:06.420conservatives. So I'm going to be big and bold. I'm going to say the conservatives are going to
00:02:10.740win the election today, that when people actually get in that voting booth, they're going to think,
00:02:15.040Do I really want another four years of what I've been having for the past decade?
00:02:21.580And they're going to say, no, I do not.
00:02:23.820And they are going to vote conservative.
00:02:25.840Okay, I'm going to go clockwise around our Hollywood squares here.
00:02:28.900Isaac, what's your prediction or your main thought going into today's vote?
00:02:33.440Yeah, my line of thoughts, much similar to Williams.
00:02:37.140Obviously, the main question I've been wondering is whether this is going to be similar to what we saw in the United States with Kamala Harris, where she was dominating the polls.
00:02:44.560But then, of course, she was decimated in the election. So I think some people are hopeful for that. A lot of people questioning the polls, but unclear why that may be happening. I also want to predict a conservative win, but it's very hard to say. Obviously, it could go either way.
00:08:08.920So I've noticed that right down to the bed of the pickup truck yesterday that the Kearney team was taking a few pages out of the Polyev playbook.
00:08:17.960Who wants to kick off on some of the other elements that we've seen similarities with?
00:08:24.500You know, here's Mark Carney taking over this tired liberal government and, you know,
00:08:29.880immediately adopting some of the things that Pierre Pelley Everett and the Conservative
00:08:33.920Party have been talking about for years and years, saying, oh, they're a great idea.
00:08:38.820And then the Liberal Party saying, look, we, you know, vote for change, vote liberal.
00:08:43.120As if not 15 minutes before Mark Carney showed up, they were standing up in the House of Commons and saying anybody who opposes this carbon tax is a planet killer.
00:08:53.920I famously remember Mark Holland when people talked about rising gas prices and the carbon tax on fuel and how it's going to make going on family road trips so expensive.
00:09:04.720And he said, well, if you take your family on a road trip, then you just want to watch the planet burn.
00:09:10.240he roared in response. What a lunatic response that was. And so, you know, he's the change agent
00:09:17.100representing a longtime incumbent government. Only, in my opinion, in liberal land does that
00:09:23.260kind of logic make sense. The example I have, which, you know, there's no question if there's
00:09:28.260an issue Pierre Polyevre has been talking about from day one, apart from maybe the overall cost
00:09:33.000of living, I think it's about housing. He's talking about homes. He's talking about building
00:09:36.740new homes, put out a mini documentary about why housing prices have gone up and why so few homes
00:09:42.880are being built. And one of his big bold policies was to scrap the GST on new home purchases. So if
00:09:51.200you're buying a brand new house for the first time, you don't have to pay GST on it. Well,
00:09:56.520lo and behold, you know, stealing Mark Carney, thieving Mark Carney said, well, that sounds like
00:10:01.400great idea that my party deeply opposed but who cares what they think i'm in charge now and this
00:10:07.240is what i'm going to do and he literally introduced the exact same policy and you know you have to
00:10:12.760laugh if it weren't so incredibly frustrating i think for the conservative opposition who spent
00:10:18.120oh so many years talking about this issue and focusing on it i can only hope that why would
00:10:25.000you vote for the guy who only jumped on board with the policy 15 minutes ago when you could be on
00:10:30.360board with the guy who created the policy put it forward and loudly defended it for the past three
00:10:35.320years well to be fair william like he just touched down so i mean give the guy a break right yeah i
00:10:42.440just want to jump off william because i don't think they just opposed it i think they voted against it
00:10:47.640in the house of commons when it was introduced uh i think it was melissa lanceman introduced a
00:10:53.000private members bill to axe the GST, and the liberals voted against that policy. And here
00:11:00.600they are adopting it as their own, dressing it up as completely original, when people who pay
00:11:07.280attention obviously know it's not. And I think it really speaks to the Liberal Party's chameleon-like
00:11:14.100ability to shape itself into anything that they think will get them into power. Because when it
00:11:22.580boils down to actual principles and real values, I don't think they have any. They just do what's
00:11:29.780convenient to get power and get back in government. And we see it with the shift that Mark Carney
00:11:35.880has brought with the narrative of his party. But we also see it with what they did with the NDP.
00:11:42.860With the coalition Jagmeet Singh got in with, Justin Trudeau, he basically gave his policies
00:11:49.460to the liberals. Now the liberals can run on, we introduced pharma care, we introduced dental care.
00:11:56.760Jagmeet Singh gave all of the NDP policies to the liberals. And I think that's why they are
00:12:02.700successful because they shape and mold themselves to whatever they think will achieve results
00:12:09.280without actually standing on serious solid ground. Isaac? Yeah, a few things I wanted to
00:12:15.900coattail off there firstly cosman of course did a series where he uh examined the values of mark
00:12:21.100carney in his book values which he's largely contradicted for example the carbon tax he said
00:12:26.460politicians who abandoned the carbon tax should be held accountable but here he is abandoning the
00:12:30.860carbon tax or at least temporarily because the conservatives said and they'll remind you that of
00:12:35.660course the carbon tax still exists he just lowered the price to zero for now and we'll see what
00:12:39.260happens if he wins the election because he could easily just raise it back up without parliamentary
00:12:43.660approval as he did lower it to zero dollars and then just touching quickly on the housing policies
00:12:49.740once carney copied pierre's uh one million dollar gst free on tax homes pierre of course raised it
00:12:56.460to 1.3 million dollars but another thing interesting to add is carney's copying the same
00:13:01.580thing trudeau was which is essentially giving these fairy tale numbers about housing builds
00:13:06.220and we saw housing starts decrease under trudeau year over year but he said oh we'll build 500
00:13:10.300thousand a year we just have no possible way of accomplishing that uh i'll get into this a bit
00:13:14.460later but carney might actually accomplish it through mobile homes so that'll be the new
00:13:17.500home ownership dream for canadians you can live in a trailer with no parking space i was reading
00:13:22.940you know chris you have to laugh you wonder if the same numbers that they're pulling for the new
00:13:27.660housing builds is the same place they got that number for how many trees they were going to play
00:13:32.460i was going to say that how many trillions of trees did they promise quadrillions of trees a tree
00:13:39.500every meter in the country and of course they ended up planting like 62 or something like that
00:13:44.620william william that was gonna that's the magical lumber that they're going to use to build the
00:13:50.460magical houses out of i just didn't piece it together yet you know when i was in school
00:13:56.620was caught copying another student's homework the student caught copying was given to zero and i
00:14:02.700really hope that that's what voters are thinking of doing today they're looking at the copycat
00:14:07.420Kearney and they're saying this guy deserves a zero for copying other people's homework. We
00:14:11.980shouldn't reward bad behavior like that. You know, there's so many things here. Number one,
00:14:17.900yeah, people need to read the details real close on those housing promises because they were
00:14:22.460manufactured homes and nothing wrong with that. I've lived in a trailer park. I absolutely loved
00:14:26.620doing so. My son was born there. But if it's a government owned mobile home with no parking
00:14:33.900space, that's getting really big government-y, control-y and expensive and terrible in my mind.
00:14:39.200You got to really read the tea leaves on that. And I really must stress, Cosmin, thank you so much
00:14:44.980for reading that book, because I really don't think that enough folks did. So I read his book.
00:14:52.540I read Mark Carney's book, especially the chapters on climate change, on the ones on carbon tax.
00:14:59.320The ones on COVID, frankly, were making me too angry because he was praising lockdowns.
00:15:04.700He thought it was a great idea to have that kind of control.
00:15:07.320So I read the areas on the carbon tax.
00:15:10.180Folks, this dude is married to carbon taxes.
00:15:13.840He describes them as a cornerstone to his worldview.
00:15:17.800He says repeatedly that we must have carbon taxes and they must constantly increase.
00:15:23.640On top of that, he states in his book that he wants 80% of oil and gas to remain in the ground.
00:15:31.300So when he starts telling you energy superpower stuff, he's talking about like reflecting sunshine down a pipeline or something.
00:23:28.700and conversely of course 76 percent of conservatives were voting for the conservative
00:23:34.480party primarily based on hope because they felt that pierre poleva was the leader who
00:23:39.120could best provide a better future in canada to live work raise children raise a family really
00:23:43.820make canada its own prosperous nation so i mean that that poll really broke down the election i
00:23:49.400think in showing the reasons that people are supporting these parties i mean what do you guys
00:23:53.080think. The key thing I was looking at is the generational divide. I mean, who would have
00:24:00.440thought that the 18 to 35-year-old vote would swing conservative? And I've seen multiple polls
00:24:09.000as I've been watching this election, where that vote group, voter group, actually outnumbers
00:24:16.340for the conservatives over the liberals the NDP aren't capturing it either so it's astounding
00:24:23.900right like we're seeing a whole change when we're talking about generations people used to
00:24:29.360think of conservative voters in such a specific way they were usually older people right more
00:24:34.660established people but that's not the case and and it really tells us something about what people
00:24:40.960see in Pierre Polyev, especially young people. And as Isaac mentioned, they seem to be voting
00:24:47.720for hope that they will have a future, that they will be able to afford homes and live the same
00:24:53.580life that their parents and grandparents had in this country.
00:24:58.420Yeah, it is very interesting. I think we've now reached the point where there are two
00:25:02.600very different Canadas. There is a Canada, if you are retired or very secure in your work,
00:25:10.100So maybe, for example, working for the bureaucracy of a government in some capacity, if you own your own home or purchased it when it was a lot cheaper and therefore, you know, as the cost of living goes up, as mortgage rates increase, it actually doesn't matter so much if your mortgage is tiny.
00:25:29.860You know, if you only have a very small mortgage, you're insulated a bit from that.
00:25:34.840And so there's that Canada that I think really does line up with where a lot of older Canadians happen to be.
00:25:41.120And for them, I don't know if they really understand what it's like for people who aren't in that situation.
00:25:47.540They don't understand what it's like for new graduates who spend, you know, it used to be I couldn't find a job for a few weeks after graduating, too.
00:25:56.360I couldn't find a job for a few months after graduating.
00:25:59.240Now it's, I can't find a job for a few years after graduating, and I can't move out of my parents' house, and I can't afford to put a down payment on a home.
00:26:10.340I can't even save up enough for a down payment because prices escalated so quickly, and I can't afford to start a family because I know both me and my partner now have to work around the clock in order to just cover our bills.
00:26:24.300So I think for that cohort of people, this is a very different election, and they do not see hope in Mark Carney.
00:26:33.040They see hope in Pierre Polyever, not only because he looks a lot more like them.
00:26:39.460He's recently, you know, you could see him having to face some of these issues much more than international WUF globalist banker Mark Carney,
00:26:47.920who frankly doesn't know how much anything costs in a grocery store.
00:26:51.460In fact, I'm pretty sure he doesn't even buy his own groceries.
00:26:53.380So, you know, that's the real difference. And, you know, the vote shift is so fundamental. Another great example is, you know, there's a decent chance Elizabeth May will lose her seat in this election, which, you know, given the part of BC she represents, is not a traditional conservative heartland.
00:27:12.600And a lot of young voters, particularly who didn't like the liberal conservative vibe, parked their vote with the Greens. And now they're saying, well, Elizabeth May says we should have higher taxes to give more money to international countries because of Trump's foreign aid cuts.
00:27:29.920and they're like, we can barely afford to buy groceries and pay rent, and you want to raise my
00:27:34.560taxes to send the money out of Canada? That's lunacy for that. And I think, you know, she's
00:27:40.380going to face the same judgment that a lot of people maybe in that age bracket are, that they
00:27:45.040just do not understand what a huge portion of this country is going through when it comes to jobs,
00:27:50.020houses, bills, and the cost of living, and being able to move your life forward, you know, being
00:27:55.120able to move into the next stage of life rather than being stuck where you are right now yeah
00:28:03.440if i can hit it off i think this was perfectly encapsulated in what some people are calling
00:28:09.360the meme of the election and i'm sure all of you have seen the photos of the so-called branford
00:28:17.040boomer there they are we we've uh censored a bit of it because we're not so sure youtube would like
00:28:23.520that but this everyone was talking about it and i think there's a reason it really hit
00:28:29.520the nail on the head in terms of how people how young people particularly feel that older
00:28:35.920generations view their circumstance and situation and i'm not saying that people who are older
00:28:43.760seniors established people even all are like that but liberal voters have shown a disregard
00:28:51.360by wanting to re-elect essentially the same government that put us in this situation.
00:28:58.020And when you look at the poll numbers and the breakdown,
00:29:01.780the support for the Liberals comes from that age group.
00:29:09.620To your point exactly, Cosman, not all seniors or boomers are in that position.
00:29:15.900I just got off the phone a couple of days ago with a senior citizen,
00:29:19.060and I don't know why I didn't ask personal questions, but he and his wife, he's in his
00:29:24.460seventies are still paying rent. So they don't own a house. And so they're getting rent evicted
00:29:30.140like real soon. And like, he's a guy that used to work on cars all the time. Like he worked in a
00:29:35.420body shop and he's older now and his hands hurt so much that it's hard for him to hold tools. Sorry.
00:29:42.300It's just upsetting hearing from these people because the cost of living is just getting so
00:29:47.820out of hand for so many people. So number one, my heart goes out to those folks too. Number two,
00:29:55.980there is a big rain cloud for boomers here. It's called the home equity tax. And I really need to
00:30:03.120flag this hard because this is something the Canadian Taxpayers Federation has been investigating
00:30:09.460now for a couple of years. And we have caught this liberal government red handed. Okay. Really
00:30:16.100looking hard at taxing the wealth of your home equity. So your primary residence is government
00:30:23.540speak for the house you own and live in. Okay. Up until now, since the seventies, you do not pay
00:30:32.160tax on the income, the profit you make from the sale of that house. That is why so many people
00:30:38.360have used the house that they own as their nest egg, especially if they don't have some big
00:30:43.440government golden pension to rely upon. Okay. Someone who's running their own business. Somebody
00:30:48.100who's in the private sector often puts their investment into their house, imagining that when
00:30:53.040they're old, they'll sell, they'll downsize to a teeny tiny apartment or move in with one of their
00:30:58.240kids and use the rest of that money to live out the rest of their lives. Well, guess what? That's
00:31:03.320worth, I think in the more than a trillion dollars for the wealth across Canada. And this government
00:31:10.300is sniffing hard. So there's three elements of evidence here. Okay. Number one, the liberal
00:31:15.480government made you start reporting the sale of your primary residence on your tax form.
00:31:20.520If they're not going to tax you on it, why are they asking you that? Number two, they have funded
00:31:26.660almost $500,000 worth of studies through the federal government to investigate home taxes,
00:31:34.220including a home equity tax. Three, they denied meeting with these pushers of the home equity tax,
00:31:42.360but we filed freedom of information requests. And guess what? The PMO staff on at least two
00:31:48.040occasions met with one of the biggest pushers of home equity taxes in Canada. And this is where
00:31:53.600it gets weird. You guys have been in the game long enough. You know that usually if you mention
00:31:58.540something and a party wants to run away from it fast, they freak out and they deny it right away.
00:32:03.460Like even on a weekend, they'll come out and deny it. No, no, no, nothing to see here. Crickets. We've raised this during the election campaign, folks. Crickets. Nothing coming from the Liberals. So that's something to watch. And you guys were mentioning the disparity between the have-nots, right, and the so-called have-yachts. This is a report that's from the Privy Council, okay?
00:32:26.840That is basically the bureaucracy that manages the PMO. So there's the permanent government, the swamp of government. That's the bureaucracy. And there's the politically elected people, the staffers and the politicians. This is from the bureaucracy warning that on the current trajectory, we are going to wind up with great disparity between property owners and those who don't own property.
00:32:47.500so again these policies are up for grabs anybody who wants to grab a brain and change them is a
00:32:53.200good thing to do but it's a huge element that is uh that is looming large here um do we want to go
00:32:58.700around the horn here and talk about the most significant policy announcements who wants to
00:33:02.520kick that one off sure i can go first uh give her cause i think it maybe not the most significant
00:33:11.100but the most brazen, so to speak, was when Kearney floated a CBC increase to their funding,
00:33:20.160essentially a bribe, dumping tax dollars into CBC's annual budget. And I'm not sure exactly
00:33:29.020what the current figure is, but the last time I checked, it was about $1.4 billion.
00:33:34.860I think it's gone up significantly. And Chris, you might be able to speak more to that. But
00:33:40.380it just goes to show right before the election day, you're willing to do that. And there's so
00:33:46.720many questions, as we've discussed, about the impartiality of the legacy media during this
00:33:52.600election, especially because they're funded by the government and the CBC, most chiefly,
00:34:00.320because we're the ones who are getting our tax dollars sent to their budget.
00:34:06.060all right I can go next and I think this for me is the most significant policy announcement
00:34:13.260especially for anyone who cares about economics or fiscal responsibility and
00:34:18.020somewhat unfortunately we saw Pierre not release his platform until about a week ago which I just
00:34:23.960want to say is because Carney as you'll all remember allocated this election to be the
00:34:29.100shortest time frame possible which is 28 days and then Pierre might have wanted Carney to come up
00:34:33.720with his costed platform first, because we've seen no matter what policies Pierre comes out
00:34:38.300with, Carney seems to copy them. So he kind of had to wait until Carney came out with his. But
00:34:43.460just quickly into the numbers here. So they both came out with their costed platforms from the
00:34:49.220baseline deficit that the parliamentary budget officer provided, which was $141.7 billion
00:34:54.260between 2025 and 2028. And Polyev's costed platform would see the deficit fall to just
00:35:01.040over 100 billion whereas carney's would see it rise to almost 225 billion dollars in new debt
00:35:06.920so carney wants to add 129 billion dollars in new spending uh some of which is on climate
00:35:14.180initiatives and we saw other ludicrous things in carney's budget such as a carbon tariff on other
00:35:19.320countries oh you guys don't have a carbon tax well you have to pay this carbon tariff and his
00:35:22.960whole platform is against trump's tariffs but now he's implementing his own i mean it's just the
00:35:28.200more you look into it, the more ridiculous it is. And I could go through this policy for an hour,
00:35:32.180but just, I guess, highlighting a few more things. We already pay Canadians $1 billion per week in
00:35:40.100interest on the federal debt. And those charges would rise by over $5.6 billion over that four
00:35:46.760year period under Carney. But with Polyev at the helm, they would fall $2.4 billion. So I mean,
00:35:52.220this is ridiculous. And by the way, the $1 billion we pay weekly is more than Ottawa spends on
00:35:56.360healthcare payments to the province you might want to comment on this chris because i know you're
00:36:00.040really involved with it too well it's just maddening um i remember so straight up when i heard
00:36:06.840carney bring out his costed platform i thought i was mishearing it because for a normie you know
00:36:12.440not us okay political psychopaths who have to obsessively watch things okay for a normal person
00:36:18.360um i think they kind of perceived him as the money guy like oh yeah he's a banker he's good
00:36:23.880with money and then he's like nope i'm going to put more money on the debt than the drama teacher
00:36:30.040like the banker's worse with money than the drama teacher i did not see that one coming so i think
00:36:35.480he lost a lot of traction and a lot of credibility there so crazy amount of spending you're absolutely
00:36:41.720right isaac uh hidden in there is what they call border adjustment mechanisms which is government
00:36:48.360talk for a tariff. Folks, we've heard all this tariff talk about Trump. Carney's going to hit
00:36:55.320you with a tariff, his own tariff. It's a carbon tariff. It's different from the industrial carbon
00:37:02.120tax. Why is he going to do this? Because he believes so fervently in carbon taxes that when
00:37:08.640he looks around the world and finds a country that doesn't have a carbon tax, that upsets him.
00:37:14.620that upsets him so much he's going to punish that import into our country with his own carbon tariff
00:37:22.080and so that means that stuff I just did a little shopping trip did you we all know Windex is made
00:37:27.140in Wisconsin guess what Wisconsin in the United States United States doesn't have an industrial
00:37:32.660carbon tax or a federal carbon tax so guess what that's going to have a new tariff on it same thing
00:37:38.120goes for my kids pajamas things same thing goes for the bananas coming from South America a lot
00:37:42.800of countries around the world the majority of them don't have a national carbon tax so this
00:37:48.060carbon tariff thank you isaac for pointing this out it's right in there and they're guesstimating
00:37:53.360at the start it's going to cost us about half a billion dollars with a b just that one tariff and
00:38:00.540we know with government they always take in more money they always waste more money than they say
00:38:04.380they're going to so probably double that man oh man william did you want to have a kick at this
00:38:08.840Sorry, Chris, can I just add one thing? There's a hundred things I missed, obviously, but this perfectly highlights the lunacy of it all. Look, when Freeland was about to release the fall economic statement for former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, we expected the deficit to be about $40 billion. Of course, it was $62 billion. She resigned the day before because it was so bad. And here Carney is now doubling the debt. So he's saying, oh, Freeland, it was so bad that you resigned. I'll do you one worse. I mean, it's just insane.
00:38:34.580thank you for pointing that out let's repeat that okay real slow do people remember this drama that
00:38:41.420was happening it feels like a year ago but it was only like a couple months ago and freeland was
00:38:46.100supposed to come out with this terrible you know steaming bag of a of a of a budget okay she was
00:38:52.820only supposed to go 40 billion dollars over budget only a 40 billion dollar deficit but then she was
00:38:59.420told to come out with a 60 plus billion dollar deficit. So spending way too much money. And the
00:39:04.760narrative goes that she made a principled stand and she said no. And that apparently Trudeau
00:39:10.480wanted to hire this guy, Mark Carney, to be the finance minister instead of her over this
00:39:16.960kerfuffle. And now exactly to your point, Isaac, he's the leader of the party. He's spending,
00:39:23.700he's putting way more money down on the debt than what they were saying before. It truly is mind
00:39:28.660bending. Oh, last thing there on the costed platforms, if I may, for the conservatives,
00:39:32.760I don't know if you wanted to get into this, but we were really, okay, number one, we would like
00:39:37.400them to balance the budget in the fourth year of their term. Based on what they're planning to do,
00:39:42.340I think they can actually do it. So I'm actually quite optimistic that they will be able to make
00:39:46.580that a good news story at the end. Second, super happy to see them come out with a Taxpayer
00:39:51.560Protection Act. Like those of us here, I think there's three of us here sitting in Alberta,
00:39:55.900okay we don't have a sales tax because we don't we have a taxpayer protection act that shields us
00:40:01.460from it okay that is why we have lower taxes here for for polyev to say you know what i'm
00:40:06.940going to take this national and say if i create a new tax or raise your current taxes you'll have
00:40:13.380to give me a say so i'm going to ask you first in a referendum that means a lot for taxpayers so we
00:40:19.640were happy to see that one in there too i can just jump in we got a super chat from wayne here
00:40:25.220for a hundred dollars and i wanted to thank him thank you wayne it's very generous of you and i'll
00:40:30.500just read it out he said i'd like to put my cards on the similar election dynamics as the usa in
00:40:37.5402024 but i'm about to start holding my breath an election for similar policy and breaches with the
00:40:44.900same cabinet is a lose-lose solution to our future well said wayne thank you wayne so much for
00:40:52.020participating. And folks, remember, we are in a countdown mode right now. We are about 19 minutes
00:40:57.720before the top of the clock. That is when the Juno News election special kicks off. Candice
00:41:03.380Malcolm's going to be hosting. It's going to have all of your fan favorites, lots of reporters out
00:41:07.740in the field, including in Ottawa, Toronto, and Burnaby, to find out what's going to happen in
00:41:13.920Jagmeet Singh's riding. Lots of contributors all through the night. We're going to be here. We're
00:41:18.220going to have that ticker across the bottom that shows you that really stressful C count that drives
00:41:23.240me crazy, but I can't look away from it. So if you want to be part of the special chat group, okay,
00:41:30.020feel free, of course, to participate on Rumble and on YouTube and online. But if you want to be part
00:41:35.280of the special Juno News chat group, that's for subscribers only. So you've got about 18 minutes
00:41:41.420left to head on over to junonews.com, subscribe there, and you can then join the election night
00:41:47.720chat because they're going to be here all night uh william did you want to get into your most
00:41:52.520significant policy announcements or isaac do you have more timbits for us no i could go on but
00:41:57.600william should definitely speak no i think you should go on isaac i think we're going to move
00:42:01.880to my thing now you know just kidding poor william is falling asleep i'm babbling here i would say
00:42:06.700first of all you don't have to join the live chat right at the very beginning if at any point in the
00:42:11.300night you want to become a juno subscriber you're free to do so so don't want to make everybody
00:42:15.500think that they only have 17 minutes left to get that done you're losing my pressure wedge william
00:42:22.300yeah in terms of uh my biggest issue again i feel it's one where the liberals sort of tried to steal
00:42:29.260it from pierre but they didn't do a great job of the heist and it is the idea that canada could
00:42:36.620once again become a country where we could actually build things and have them become
00:42:43.020economic generators in this country. And as a Calgarian, as someone who has talked about this
00:42:49.100issue for decades now, making me feel old, building new pipelines was something that we
00:42:54.800have lobbied for forever. We said Energy East is a great idea because it means we don't only have
00:43:01.500to sell our oil to the United States. We can supply oil for our domestic energy needs because
00:43:07.360a lot of Quebec's oil was coming from places like Saudi Arabia at the time, which maybe I'm biased.
00:43:12.720I think Alberta oil, preferable to Saudi Arabian oil. And we could get it to refineries on the
00:43:18.720East Coast in places like New Brunswick, where we would then have the opportunity to export it
00:43:23.920to Europe, to lots of places who are in need of energy. And you had Quebec saying, oh,
00:43:30.320there's no social acceptance for pipelines and anything like that. And then mostly you had the
00:43:35.760Liberal government passing bills like Bill C-69 that we call the No More Pipelines Act,
00:43:42.080which was we're going to make it so slow and costly and difficult that nobody will ever want
00:43:49.360to build a major piece of infrastructure in this country again and you know i i did read a toronto
00:43:55.120star article a day or so ago and after i took a shower i was gonna say are you okay and recovered
00:44:01.920from that disturbing experience um you know the basic premise was albertans have no gratitude
00:44:08.080we bought them the Trans Mountain Pipeline and they haven't said thank you once. And the point
00:44:12.880is we didn't want Canada to buy the Trans Mountain Pipeline. We wanted the government
00:44:19.680to get out of the way so that the private sector could build the Trans Mountain Pipeline. We don't
00:44:25.920want government building infrastructure. We want the private sector to have an opportunity
00:44:31.840to create economic growth, create jobs, and create opportunity for the rest of the country.
00:44:37.200And it's so frustrating that, you know, you look at this expensive budget, by the way, how bad do you have to be to make Justin Trudeau look like the fiscally responsible one in this situation?
00:44:48.460That's a remarkable achievement. But, you know, you've got Mark Carney saying, oh, we're going to invest in infrastructure to build Canada.
00:44:55.000Well, no, you're not, because you're going to you're going to wrap the same regulations around the same red tape.
00:44:59.480You're going to say, oh, you know, you we've discovered this rare species of birds.
00:45:03.860So, you know, two thirds of British Columbia, we can never build in again.
00:45:07.740And it's just going to lead to the same failed projects and and anemic economic growth.
00:45:14.320So sorry for blasting off on that one a bit.
00:45:17.900As someone who lives in an energy center, it just, you know, really annoys us when we see government getting in the way of what we all know to be good nation building projects.
00:45:28.480You don't need to apologize. You're among friends here, William. We hear you. I'm going to pick up where you left off there because I really think this needs to be hammered home. That Toronto Star thing that you didn't even say thank you, like that perfectly encapsulates the tone deafness, the language barrier that I'm noticing here between the Laurentians, I will fondly call them, and the rest of us, including working Canadians who are often in Ontario.
00:45:56.840it seems like, I don't know, the force field of language misunderstanding. I don't know where to
00:46:01.620put it. Maybe it's in Thunder Bay. Maybe it's in Wawa. I'm not sure, but they don't seem to be
00:46:07.960able to understand this to Williams point exactly. Okay. There was a private company. It was the
00:46:14.220Kinder Morgan pipeline. They already owned the pipeline that ran from Edmonton, Alberta, all the
00:46:19.580way through the Rockies out to Burnaby. It was their property. They wanted to twin it, meaning
00:46:25.660it's already in the same place. They're just digging next to it in order to get more of
00:46:31.340Alberta's oil and gas out to market. That's what was happening. Kinder Morgan, the actual private
00:46:37.740company, was going to spend its own money, own money, to hire Canadian people to work on the
00:46:44.920pipeline, okay, to give you an idea of how much money we have lost out on just in federal income
00:46:52.520taxes. Over the last 10, 15 years or so, $13 billion just in the income taxes that would have
00:47:02.820been taken from the workers that build these pipelines. I'm not talking royalties. I'm not
00:47:07.540talking even about property taxes. It's mind blowing. So Kinder Morgan wanted to twin this
00:47:11.800pipeline. They got green lights, a lot of yes, yes, yes, yes for years. And then to your point,
00:47:17.880William, the yeses slowed down. They slowed down so much that the company finally gave up and
00:47:24.440walked away. Then the federal government came in and said, let's spend, what is it now? It's close
00:47:29.500to $30 billion of taxpayers' money on this thing. The idea that the star would want us to thank them
00:47:36.840for that dumpster fire is remarkable, but I think it perfectly explains it. I will quickly point out
00:47:42.920that as far as these policy announcements that are coming from Kearney that are making me hit
00:47:48.940the alarm bell the most, it's the industrial carbon tax because this sucker is going to be big.
00:47:54.300Okay. We don't know how much it's going to cost us because nobody ever asked him directly.
00:48:00.280Unfortunately, how much is your industrial carbon tax going to cost? But to give you an indicator,
00:48:04.800the trade union workers trade union workers of the pipe fitters in hamilton in the steel industry
00:48:14.980are so worried about this industrial carbon tax that that trade union is endorsing polyev
00:48:21.700that i've never seen this before in my life the boilermakers are endorsing pierre polyev and the
00:48:27.500conservatives like tradesmen are doing this out loud with their face and on paper they're saying
00:48:32.940that this industrial carbon tax is going to decimate the steel industry in Ontario.
00:48:37.940I will point out I heard nothing from Premier Doug Ford about this.
01:05:49.920is to let your friend in Bow River take him branding.
01:05:53.780And two days later, all your attitude was gone.
01:05:56.800I won't go into what happens in the branding parties, but, uh, you know, you, you, uh, you come back just feeling lucky not to be, uh, a future steak. And also you come back either being tough or knowing that you're not.
01:06:11.760Yeah, that's a great point. My first job actually was working at a feedlot. I'd have to wake up at like 6am to feed the cows and we'd be working till, you know, we'd be working till sunrise before sunrise to sunset.
01:06:26.180And I've never had a job as grueling as that.
01:06:29.520So the jobs that the people in Bow River do are some of the toughest jobs in the world, but some of the most important.
01:06:37.620The farmers that work in this riding feed not just Canada, but the world.
01:06:43.560And when I've been speaking to them, this campaign has been going on, and I've been speaking with my neighbors and my friends,
01:06:50.960The issues that they have are deep, deep issues with the way that liberals have been governing this country for the last 10 years.
01:07:01.300One perfect example is the tariffs that are on canola right now.
01:07:07.300China has issued tariffs on canola products, which are devastating canola farmers in this part of the country.
01:07:14.540And they're doing that because the liberals installed tariffs on electric vehicle parts.
01:07:20.960So they're actually retaliatory tariffs against us that were completely unprompted because the liberal government wanted to prop up this electric vehicle industry.
01:07:29.800And as a result, the collateral damage has been given, has been sent directly to canola farmers.
01:07:36.700And for some reason, no political party in this country has been talking about canola tariffs.
01:07:41.860It's been an absolute disaster for canola farmers and nobody is speaking out for them.
01:07:45.960And it's really frustrating. And I think that I know why.
01:07:48.120it's because there's no canola farmers in any swing riding in this country um the only swing
01:07:53.000you know canola farmers vote conservative uh and the conservative party and the liberal party have
01:07:59.720just been completely disinterested because if if they start talking about canola tariffs they have
01:08:03.640to own up to the fact that they're putting these unprompted tariffs against china to prop up a
01:08:10.040industry that really shouldn't you know you should be able to sort its own issues out uh whether
01:08:15.160they're competitive or not against china it's not the problem of canola farmers but they're putting
01:08:19.720canola farmers out of business as a result so there's you know there's been a lot of discussion
01:08:24.120in this election campaign about and sorry if i'm going on long-winded here there's been a lot of
01:08:28.360discussion about a lot of issues uh and too much of it frankly has been about donald trump donald
01:08:33.880trump is not the number one threat to canada despite all of this this this frankly blatant
01:08:40.280lying people who think that he's seriously going to occupy this country and and take over this
01:08:46.600country it's a it's a joke on our part that we're taking it seriously when we have so many other
01:08:52.440issues that we've been dealing with after a decade of of liberal destruction you you nailed it ken i
01:08:59.880mean i think that's a 45 billion dollar industry which is basically principally a china demand
01:09:07.880industry for canada it's not like we have multiple markets that's it's a critical industry
01:09:13.320and we're fighting it on something where we are i think number 19 or 20 in terms of
01:09:18.760whether canada creates another electric battery or not is almost totally irrelevant
01:09:24.280and in in the planet and uh and it and that whole thing was propped up with the 50 billion dollars
01:09:30.600that we didn't spend keeping our nato or norad promises or doing any of the things that would
01:09:34.520of put us in a much better position with the Americans.
01:09:36.680But you're putting your finger on something I think
01:25:02.560The Conservatives need to get over 40% in that riding.
01:25:05.760If they get over 44%, then it will be an exceptional night for Pierre Polyev.
01:25:11.000If they get below 40, well, that's going to be a red flag, literally, that the Liberal Party might be doing better across the country if it is below 40% there.
01:25:21.520So we're going to be keeping an eye on that.
01:25:23.560And the polls close in exactly two minutes and 50 seconds.
01:25:27.660So once those results start rolling in, we are going to be feeding you guys that information live, both in the chat room there on the bottom left and, of course, on screen.
01:25:37.460You can already see the Liberals have taken a bit of a lead in Newfoundland in the polls that have closed there.
01:25:42.960As votes are being tabulated, we're going to start declaring ridings.
01:25:46.620That's what our decision desk is going to be doing.
01:25:49.540And once they do start declaring ridings, you'll see in the right-hand side of the screen
01:25:54.960a candidate slider, we're calling it, where candidates who have been either defeated
01:26:00.160or have become victorious will be displayed there on the screen for you
01:26:04.340so that you, in your own riding, might see your own candidate there.
01:26:07.600And you'll see whether or not your riding went Conservative, Liberal,
01:26:10.620or less likely NDP, Bloc, or even Green.
01:26:14.360I don't think the Greens are going to have a very good night tonight.
01:26:16.480I think that one of their co-leaders might even lose their seats.
01:26:21.100It's going to be a very long night one way or the other.
01:26:23.800Well, it's interesting, too, because it's hard for Conservatives to watch the results come in Atlantic Canada because that's not necessarily where the party is strongest.
01:26:32.060So just keep in mind that the Conservative Party currently holds eight seats in Atlantic Canada.
01:26:36.700And holding on to those eight seats will be a good night for the Conservatives.
01:29:32.220I think that my husband and the entire Conservative Party of Canada ran a very good campaign and I feel very good about it.
01:29:39.760So I'm just wondering, when you first met Pierre, when you went on your first date, did you ever think that you would be here on an election night in the situation that you're in right now?
01:41:55.200And the people they look to to solve those problems are people like Pierre.
01:41:58.840They were people like Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney.
01:42:01.500So all, you know, these politicians, whether they're liberals or conservatives, they take in a lot and it changes a person going through these campaigns, going to these rallies that are so huge.
01:42:10.860It's like it's like going to a rock concert where people are putting not just a fun night into your hands.
01:42:16.500They're putting their hopes and dreams for a better future for themselves, for their aging parents and for their children.
01:42:22.660It really is a crazy thing to be a politician in this country.
01:42:26.560And, you know, some people don't have a lot of sympathy for them. But when you see interviews like that, I think that it's pretty clear that they are in this for the right reasons. And it gives me a little bit of hope because, you know, some politicians aren't in it for the right reasons. They haven't been quite on the campaign trail in the same way that Pierre and his wife have been.
01:42:45.220I've been impressed that she's followed him across this campaign almost 100% of the time.
01:43:04.280And you can tell that they really rely on each other for that emotional support.
01:43:08.120I mean, politics can be a very draining, challenging sport or profession.
01:43:14.040And, you know, you live it. It's your career, but it's your life and it's who you are. And I think Pierre Polyev is very lucky to have a woman like Anna Polyev by her side. What do you think, David?
01:43:23.880Yeah, look, I think one of the things that's noticeable, I was, you know, I actually hosted Pierre and Anna in Hong Kong back in the day. And, you know, I think they're just genuine, genuine. They love people. It's very genuine.
01:43:38.240When you run a campaign, things have to be scripted.
01:44:01.200one of the things that people don't understand is the sleep deprivation that that couple is under
01:44:06.840right now is probably extraordinary because you can't it's not just that your your pacing of your
01:44:12.300campaign is that intense it's that every 15 minutes some candidate somewhere says the wrong
01:44:17.580thing and it becomes a crisis of the moment that requires the leader to weigh in on it and then the
01:44:22.340next morning at you know 5 30 in the morning somebody who's supposed to have something done
01:44:27.740didn't get it done the plane didn't the plane needs to be fixed you're going to miss that thing
01:44:31.580and there's no way to get a bus out there it's constant and i think they're probably just at the
01:44:36.300in uh they're probably almost hallucinating they're so tired but surrounded by people who love
01:44:40.460them and they've they've left nothing on the field i think they can be very proud of the campaign
01:44:45.740that they ran i think there's going to be a lot of um you know this campaign in particular has
01:44:50.940already had some litigation of the strategy and tactics and i think that's an incredibly hard thing
01:44:57.740uh for a campaign i was i was very sympathetic to what was going on when you had that debate
01:45:03.340between the um you know the the team uh team conservative in ontario and uh team conservative
01:45:11.320federally and that's been a feature of this campaign is something we're gonna have to talk
01:45:15.200about yeah i i would love to hash that out right now actually as someone someone like you who knows
01:45:20.200this business really well um what what do you make of it when you see internal conservative
01:45:26.080party factions, or maybe I shouldn't say conservative party because Corey Tanike,
01:45:30.440for example, is not a member of the conservative campaign, but he is ostensibly a conservative
01:45:35.300in Canada. What do you make of it when these factions within the same party clash like this
01:45:40.660so publicly at such a crucial moment? Unfortunately, I mean, Ken, you know Alberta
01:45:47.820politics. I came back to work on Jason's campaign and we won a historic landslide and had an
01:45:55.020incredibly united you know recently united conservative party ucp uh but it wasn't united
01:46:01.560for long and i think it's i think it's in the nature of the conservative movement that people
01:46:06.740are very factional uh they think they know best they're independent minded and that there's
01:46:12.240something about that dna that's actually good and it forces a constant renewal and and and a
01:46:17.380constant reckoning and an accountability and there were things we certainly needed to be accountable
01:46:20.980before um and no one's you know wilting violet there but there's a point and i think what you're
01:46:28.980seeing happen right now unfortunately is that we do our laundry in public but we don't do it in a
01:46:34.140constructive way it's not put out there in a sense of like look we've got your back but we sure wish
01:46:39.120you were building better bridges with the local teams in terms of data running the campaign better
01:46:44.080in our space it was sort of being prosecuted i think with a lot of history in the air that's
01:46:50.700probably not worth going through on the air here but you know the history between the campaign
01:46:54.300managers and i think some of the um background and i think mistakes have been made and prices
01:47:00.520get paid for mistakes that get made you have to be a realist and you have to be a little bit
01:47:04.140machiavellian uh when you're gonna win but i do think that as a party we've got to get a better
01:47:10.500grip on what our overall tactics and strategy should be because the strong enduring sense across
01:47:16.100i think the spectrum of the players involved is that we should have won this clearly and cleanly
01:47:22.260it shouldn't be close in the way that it's close and well sorry david just to jump in here it's so
01:47:28.100unforgivable when when i see uh concert potential conservative candidates that would replace like
01:47:33.620the pre-positioning that's come on by some public service it's just so inappropriate and to me it's
01:47:39.220like such a such a unforgivable sin to do during an election campaign like i still believe that
01:47:45.460Pierre Polyev has a very good chance of becoming prime minister tonight and the fact that there
01:47:49.780are some campaigns and some politicians that are already pre-positioning to try to elbow their way
01:47:54.740in to lead this party is gross and i i'm glad you're calling them out on it it needs to stop
01:48:00.260and you know let's let's let's all be in together and we can we can do a post-mortem after the
01:48:05.460election talk about what went right what went wrong but you don't do that during an election
01:48:09.540right folks we have been talking about this uh since the broadcast began but i'm very pleased
01:48:13.540I want to introduce you to our decision desk host, Matt John. So Matt, he's the executive
01:48:22.900at Crestview, which is a public relations firm in Ontario, and he is going to be the one breaking
01:48:28.500down all the numbers for us. So as you can see in the bottom of our screen, we do have some results
01:48:33.620coming in already. They're slowly trickling in. The polls close in Newfoundland at 7 p.m. Eastern
01:48:39.540time, 5 p.m. Mountain Time. 7.30, the polls close in the rest of Atlantic Canada. That's 5.30 p.m.
01:48:46.420in Alberta, 4.30 p.m. in British Columbia. And so we are starting to see results trickle in. Like I
01:48:52.540mentioned earlier, the Conservatives only held eight seats going into this election. So yes,
01:48:58.140the early numbers coming in will always look a little disappointing for the Conservatives. But
01:49:03.860But just so that no, you know, conservatives aren't expected to do any kind of a blowout in Atlantic Canada.
01:49:12.180I will just note, Candace, while we're bringing him in, that the conservatives are leading right now in four ridings.
01:49:19.820One of them is just one poll reporting, so it's not really not even worth mentioning.
01:49:24.460But of the ridings that have currently, the non-incumbent is leading, two of those ridings are being taken by the conservatives.
01:49:33.020which means Anthony Germain right now is being upset by 300 votes. That's almost 7%. That's in
01:49:40.040Terranova. And then again, in Long Range Mountains, Don Bradshaw is being beat right now. He's the
01:49:49.320incumbent, liberal incumbent, is being beat by over 1,000 votes right now, which is 20% with 45
01:49:55.900out of 250 polls reporting. That's actually crazy right now that we're seeing. The liberals are,
01:50:02.100you know, the Conservatives not currently lost any of the seats that they held, but Liberals have
01:50:06.520lost two seats already. They're not being called, but they are trailing in seats that they are the
01:50:12.180incumbent in. And actually, more polls just came in in Bradshaw's riding, and he's now trailing
01:50:18.000even further. So, so far, it's looking good without speaking too early. Well, you know,
01:50:25.620you don't want to jump ahead of yourselves too much with, again, Atlantic Canada, not high
01:50:30.180expectations necessarily but really interesting context and we are going to be going to our
01:50:35.780decision desk and matt john who's going to be he's our numbers guy i'm actually so impressed by this
01:50:41.620so some of one of the things that we did here at juno news is first of all we created there's matt
01:50:46.740john hi matt welcome to the show thank you so much for joining us hi candace good to be with you okay
01:50:52.580so tell us about juno news's decision desk i'm so excited about this new announcement that we're
01:50:56.660making. Yeah, it's really exciting. I think as the folks who've been following in the chat would
01:51:02.400note, we posted some updates on the model that Juno has developed. And I would note that that
01:51:09.780model should give us a good indication of where things are headed tonight. If you looked at,
01:51:14.380if you took our model and put the Juno polling into it, you would see that would give us a seat
01:51:19.600count of about the CPC, a seat count of about 150 and the Liberals about 165. Your listeners
01:51:27.520would probably know that that's a pretty different seat count than what some of the publicly
01:51:30.900available polls and seat counts are showing, where they're showing more like 180 seats
01:51:36.120for the Liberals and the CPC closer to 130. So the difference between that R model and polling
01:51:43.400and the publicly available polling is a good indication overall of where things are headed.
01:51:48.900I would also just say, as you guys have noted in Nova Scotia, sorry, in Newfoundland, early results are actually really encouraging for the conservatives. There's probably at the most three writings there that I would call accessible to the Conservative Party. One that they already hold, which would be a must hold. That's the one in central Newfoundland where currently Clifford Small is leading by almost 1,700 votes or with 65% of the vote.
01:52:15.740a note that's only with 21% of the polls reporting. And I would also just, this is going to be
01:52:21.920something I'll probably say a lot tonight, but with the number of advanced votes that are out
01:52:26.380there, you have to kind of wait until some of those come in before you can really have an idea
01:52:32.340of what's going on. So just to give you a note in central Newfoundland, that's a writing that had
01:52:36.700over 8,000 people vote in the advanced polls. And you'll note right now only 5,300 votes have been
01:52:42.460counted there. So that, until we see that advance vote come in, it'll be difficult to
01:52:48.720really know what's going on, but very encouraging results for the Conservatives early on in that
01:52:53.740riding. Can you tell us of the ridings that we're about to start seeing results in,
01:52:59.180which ones do you have your eyes on the most? So I would say Nova Scotia, I'm going to look at
01:53:05.760the Conservatives holding those ridings. So I think you noted there is one Conservative lead.
01:53:09.540I think that's in the Rick Perkins writing. That's going to be an interesting one, because there actually isn't an NDP candidate in that writing. And so the fear of, you know, the NDP vote consolidating with the Liberals to oust a Conservative could be realized there.
01:53:24.480And then the next one I'd look at is, I think, can you mention this already on the broadcast, but St. John Canabasis in New Brunswick.
01:53:32.700That's a riding that if the Conservatives are having a good night or even a night where they're on track to hold the Liberals to a minority,
01:53:40.500that's a riding that you might see the Conservatives do well in potentially and win it.
01:53:45.720So that's what I'll be looking at early as we see these results coming in from the Atlantics.
01:53:50.480And so, Matt, can you tell us in your model, how many seats do you have the Conservatives winning in all of Atlantic Canada?
01:53:58.320In Atlantic Canada, we would have, sorry, I'm just going to pull it up.
01:54:02.380I'm looking over to my left here at my other screen, so just so I can get a good look at that.
01:54:07.580So in Atlantic Canada, we would have the Conservatives winning the eight that they currently hold, and then potentially another three or four beyond that.
01:54:17.460So that would be, I think you guys mentioned already a couple of those ridings in rural Newfoundland, St. John Canabasas that you already noted.
01:54:25.680Those would be the ones that we would see the conservatives picking up if they're on track for a minority, holding the liberals to a minority this tonight.
01:54:34.320And maybe you can fill me in on this. How does the advanced polls, when are they calculated? When are they added in?
01:54:39.640Like, why wouldn't they be the first votes that are counted? Why do they hold them to the end?
01:54:44.040That's a really, really good question. I think you saw some news reports recently of
01:54:51.220Elections Canada starting to count advance votes early. There has been certainly a tradition here
01:54:57.720that you wouldn't start counting any votes until the polls close for obvious reasons.
01:55:01.600I think with the volume of advance vote that we now see from 2019 to 2021 to today,
01:55:07.700You're going to have to see more and more the Elections Canada starting the vote count on
01:55:13.520advanced votes early so that they're ready to release them closer to when the rest of those
01:55:19.680votes are getting counted. You're going to see a challenge. If they're not able to pull that off,
01:55:24.740you are going to see some ridings that will look, they're trending one way as the election day vote
01:55:29.080comes in and then a huge amount of votes come in and potentially swing that riding.
01:55:34.060and do we have any indicator whether i know there was i think there was an angus reed poll that
01:55:38.220showed that the advanced polls were going very heavily liberal which i have a hard time believing
01:55:42.780that because if you're still motivated to get out and change the country it's because you want
01:55:46.700change right and you know my husband and i went in advance uh voted in the advance poll we went
01:55:51.580super early like the poll we were literally the first people there when the poll opened so we
01:55:54.780didn't really get a good impression of who else was there but i have heard like anecdotally that
01:56:00.220people who did go to advanced polls, it seemed to them that the people around them, the people
01:56:05.340that were voting, the ones that they spoke to, were in fact voting for change or voting for
01:56:08.620peer polio. So any indication of which way that is advanced voting may be going?
01:56:14.540Yeah, I saw that Angus Reid poll. I mean, the problem with polling that is you're going to get
01:56:18.620a very small sample size and a large margin of error, and it's probably not consistent across
01:56:23.900the country. I also would, I think general political wisdom would tell you that the more
01:56:29.020motivated voters are going to show up in the advanced polls and that generally tends to be
01:56:32.620the voters who are are looking for a change i would only note to temper some enthusiasm around
01:56:37.820that as potentially being good for the conservatives that a lot of the polling that public polling that
01:56:42.300i've seen would indicate that there is a chunk of voters who uh i think it's time for a change
01:56:47.340who are voting liberal uh that's perplexing to a lot of us but uh uh that some of the polls have
01:56:53.180been showing that and so i think if you were the liberals you'd probably be spinning that those
01:56:56.620orders are showing up uh in the advanced polls and that's uh gonna have a good night make it a good
01:57:01.260night for you okay well matt john you are manning our decision desk we're so excited to have you so
01:57:05.740folks if you head on over to juno news and subscribe or if you scan the qr code on your
01:57:10.940screen you will be taken to our juno news chat and in there you can ask matt john questions live and
01:57:17.180he will be responding ask him about your writing ask him about the data we also have an exclusive
01:57:22.700spreadsheet that matt and his team have created it's really interesting if you are the type
01:57:27.180that likes pouring through data looking through numbers we have made this available to all of our
01:57:31.820paid subscribers so all you have to do is go over and get a subscription at juno news you get access
01:57:36.140to the exact same spreadsheet that kian matt and i have opened in front of us that we're going through
01:57:41.260to learn about every single writing who who currently holds it we have two different models
01:57:46.060that we're basing this on so this is really interesting we have our juno polls that we
01:57:49.580conducted throughout the campaign with one persuasion and then we also use our juno neighbor
01:57:54.540poll we pioneered the neighbor poll abacus data followed suit and did their own neighbor poll so
01:57:59.100you can see our different projections and models uh based on those two polling so i encourage you
01:58:03.980to go over do that matt we will be back uh with you again shortly so thank you so much for joining
01:58:09.340us and speaking i'll just mention something quickly here i'm looking at the live uh watch
01:58:16.380numbers for our competition in the mainstream media from the canadian press to cpac to cp24
01:58:25.260and the canadian press we are currently exceeding all of them for views we have three times as many
01:58:30.540views right now as the canadian press 10 times as many views live viewers as cpac the legacy media
01:58:37.900uh is going to have a reckoning after this election is over i think when people realize
01:58:42.700exactly how they've hoodwinked this country we currently haven't exceeded the cbc but we are
01:58:47.500almost about to surpass ctv and if we can do that i would consider it a huge win so i just want to
01:58:53.500remind everyone to make sure to hit the like button it does a huge it plays a huge role in
01:58:59.580making sure that regular regular everyday canadians who maybe aren't tuned in as much as you are are
01:59:06.540fed our stream and our news by youtube and by the by the google algorithms and by x as well
01:59:12.700We want to make sure that they're hearing the honest truth about what is going on in this country and what is going on tonight, because the stakes have never been more high and we cannot trust tonight in the hands of the CBC.
01:59:24.440So I encourage you to like, leave a comment. If you do that, it'll help us out immensely.
01:59:28.720And then scan the QR code at the bottom left-hand corner of your screen so that you can join our private chat room, as Candice was mentioning.
01:59:35.040But Candice, I think we do have a commercial break coming up.
01:59:37.520Okay. Yes. And we are, we'll be joined after the break by some new guests. So let's hear
01:59:43.680a quick word from our sponsor. Then we'll be back with more analysis and updates.
02:00:31.840And it doesn't matter how much money the Liberal Party is offering to the CBC or to the newspapers or even to digital startups, you know, they created this fund, they shook down Google and demanded that Google give them $100 million. And then they started distributing it to media companies, including digital startup companies like Juno News, we will not take that money, we will not take the government's money, we are funded entirely by our viewers.
02:00:57.460And, you know, interestingly, we launched on Substack and we quickly became, I think, one of the largest, if not the largest Canadian news site on Substack.
02:01:06.360Hundreds of thousands of people have subscribed.
02:01:08.920We get millions of page views a month.
02:01:10.500I think we're over nine million for this month.
02:01:12.500It's been quite the ride over the last month, seeing the growth that Juno has had.
02:01:19.440But while you can, so I'll give you some time to talk with our backroom about that commercial break.
02:01:23.880I want to talk about Terra Nova and the Peninsulas, it's called. It's a riding in Newfoundland, as well as its sister riding, Long Range Mountains. These are two really interesting ridings to me. I don't know if we'll be able to bring it up on the screen or not, but I do want to talk about them.
02:01:39.440So these form the largest part of the landmass of Newfoundland.
02:01:44.760And the incumbent in Long Range Mountains, Dan Bradshaw, was a huge Trudeau acolyte.
02:01:50.820He loved Justin Trudeau and took his marching orders every morning.
02:01:55.540He was one of the most loyal people in Trudeau's caucus.
02:01:58.340And he, as a liberal incumbent, is now trailing by more than a thousand votes.
02:02:04.720So this would be a huge upset for the Conservative Party.
02:02:07.860The Conservative candidate there is Carol Ainsley.
02:02:12.620If she wins, that would be a big, big, big win and take home for the Conservative Party.
02:02:18.580I'll talk about the other one, Terra Nova, the Peninsulas.
02:03:40.340Sorry, I know you were waiting a little bit.
02:03:43.400So Ashton is a partner at Crestview Government Relations firm based in Ottawa.
02:03:47.580He's a former political staffer on the Hill and worked in the PEI legislature.
02:03:51.360So a great person to be talking to as the polls are closing in eastern Canada.
02:03:54.160and Deirdre is a vice president Crestview based in Quebec. She was previously a senior staffer
02:03:59.620in the Harper government. So let me go first to you Ashton since you're from Prince Edward Island
02:04:04.540what are you seeing so far as the results come in and how are you feeling?
02:04:09.120It's very interesting we were exceptionally hopeful and I will say just because I think
02:04:14.780I should mention it I have a younger brother that's working on the campaign for the conservative
02:04:19.340candidate in Natalie Gamison in Charlottetown Center. And, you know, there was a point in time
02:04:25.300where we thought it was plausible that the Conservative Party could flip up to three seats
02:04:30.100in Prince Edward Island. That's just a few short months ago. And now it looks like that's going to
02:04:35.240be a long road to hoe. And I think if there is one seat in play in Prince Edward Island tonight,
02:04:40.920it would probably be Cardigan that was formerly held by longtime cabinet minister Lawrence
02:04:46.240McCauley of the Liberal Party. He's not going to be running again this time around. And so it's
02:04:50.340sort of a wide open concept with a really, really good candidate for the Conservative Party in James
02:04:55.260Aylward, somebody that I've had the pleasure of working with previously. So that's the one I'm
02:04:59.900watching. But to the point that's already been discussed, you know, I am looking for those
02:05:04.260incremental pickups in Atlantic Canada. If we can pick up three, four, five, even, then I think that
02:05:11.540tells me that it's not going to be a blowout. Perhaps we can relegate a liberal government to
02:05:17.620a minority, and who knows, maybe even a surprise or two. Well, what would you say would be the
02:05:23.040campaign, like the ballot box issue in Atlantic Canada? Did you think it was a similar one that
02:05:28.060we were hearing in Ontario, or was there something more distinct happening out there?
02:05:32.060Yeah, definitely a lot of what's happening in Ontario. So quite frankly, you know,
02:05:35.760the leadership question, and of course, issues south of the border with President Trump.
02:05:41.000One thing that I'm struck by in Atlantic Canadian politics is, you know, not dissimilar to Quebec.
02:05:46.320The vote is fickle at times, and the population is aging in Atlantic Canada perhaps faster than you would see in some other areas of the country.
02:05:54.660And as we've known through public opinion polling, that's, you know, unfortunately skewing towards the Liberal Party of Canada during this election.
02:06:03.340And so you look at Atlantic Canada, it is a remarkable pivot in a few short months.
02:06:09.280i mean there was a point in time where the conservative party was up uh you know 17 18
02:06:14.480even 19 points in atlanta canada which uh look i've been doing this for long enough not as long
02:06:19.680as others to know that uh you know a 19 point lead for the conservative party of canada in
02:06:24.480atlanta canada is basically unheard of so and it turns out it might just be candace it turns out it
02:06:32.160might just be well uh so what do you think uh in terms of the campaign that was run like how
02:06:38.800How are you feeling about your confidence towards how peer poly around the campaign, how it was wrong, the issues that they focus on the platform that they ran on?
02:06:46.780Yeah, I thought he's run an exceptionally well-defined campaign.
02:06:52.040The reality is there are some circumstances that popped up along the way that were more or less out of his control.
02:06:58.380In terms of his own personal performance, in terms of the performance of the candidates that the party was fortunate enough to nominate, I think they've done an exceedingly good job.
02:07:09.760Let's see what the results say tonight.
02:07:11.900Obviously, everybody's trying to avoid a blowout here and, you know, best case scenario, an upset, which I'd love to see the media coverage tomorrow in the event of an upset.
02:07:20.680I do think there will be a good amount of open questions that need to be asked should be asked coming out of tonight. You know, what if anything could have been done differently? You know, should the messaging have pivoted a little early? Should it have pivoted at all? Should additional resources been sent to certain ridings? I mean, these are serious questions and any serious campaign does appear.
02:12:50.680Had an election happened at that time, the NDP actually could have formed the official opposition. So the malpractice of ragging the puck and protecting the Liberal Party of Canada while it was failing and otherwise doomed to fail in the next election is really unforgivable.
02:13:10.320and quite frankly, Jagmeet Singh is going to pay for it with his job. There is no chance that he
02:13:16.200is able to retain the leadership post of that party coming out of this evening. First of all,
02:13:21.800I don't think he's going to win his own seat. Second, I don't know if it's possible at this
02:13:26.360point they actually get to official party status with 12 seats. Let's see. I think that's one of
02:13:30.460the stories of the evening. But either way, this is Jagmeet Singh's last night running under the
02:13:36.420banner of the new Democratic Party. Well, that might be the best thing that happens. Hopefully
02:13:41.280other good things happen. Hopefully conservatives do better than the polls are suggesting. But
02:13:46.180I think that Jagmeet Singh getting fired and losing his own seat and potentially losing party status
02:13:51.900is exactly what he deserves for after what he has put Canadians through for all these years. Well,
02:13:57.920Ashton Arsenal, I really appreciate your time and your insights. Thank you so much for joining us
02:14:01.260here at Juno News. Thanks, Candace. Have a good evening. Thanks. Same to you. All right, folks.
02:14:05.380Well, I think we might've had some technical difficulties, but hopefully we've got all of
02:14:09.020those ironed out. We still have a lot to get to this evening. And so one of the things that we
02:14:16.420are doing, there's Kian, Bexie. One of the things that we are offering is a live chat over at
02:14:22.940Substack. So you can join the chat. You can send us your questions. We're going to be answering
02:14:27.200some of them live on air. Others will answer in the chat. You can ask questions to Matt John.
02:14:32.200He's sort of our data nerd for the night. He has all the information at his fingertips. So if you
02:14:37.100have specific questions about certain riding, what the projections are saying, what the polls
02:14:40.480are saying, what the numbers look like, just feel free to punch some questions right into that chat
02:14:46.860and we'll have them answered. Kian, how are things looking over on your end? Yeah, so we are getting
02:14:54.200some results now uh in pei and in new brunswick uh in st john canabacus which is the riding that
02:15:02.200i said the conservatives needed to get more than 40 uh 44 in to have a good night uh right now
02:15:10.040not to uh black pill everyone but the conservatives are oh as i say that the results updated they were
02:15:19.400We're at 30%. They just spiked up to 36%, which has closed the gap a little bit with only four
02:15:26.860polls reporting out of 159, which means that if this increases, if this gap continues to shrink,
02:15:35.300those could have been advanced poll numbers that were coming in there that caused that huge number
02:15:40.500for the Liberals early on, where they were almost at 70% of the vote. Now that is coming down 10%
02:15:47.000by 10% as more polls come in. So it could still be a good night for the Conservatives, but right now
02:15:52.820with a few polls reporting, that bellwether riding, which could determine how the rest of
02:15:59.040the country plays out, is not looking good for the Conservatives. That is despite the fact that
02:16:03.980Conservatives, for just the Maritimes reporting, having 12 seats right now and the Liberals with
02:16:10.28018, it doesn't look too, too bad. But that one riding, which we had honed in on, thinking that
02:16:16.300it would be a bellwether for the rest of the country is not looking excellent, is my prognosis
02:16:22.600right now. Well, that is very interesting. And we are going to take a quick break and head over to
02:16:30.780our sponsors. Really appreciate the sponsors that we have that help us make this broadcast
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02:18:36.480From far and wide, Juno is doing the work to turn the dial in the right direction, bringing
02:18:43.460you the news from the field and in the studio.
02:18:47.880Wherever it takes us, we get the job done.
02:19:06.480hey everyone sorry about those technical issues that we are having this is the first
02:19:17.140live broadcast that juno news has done on an election night uh it's a big night for the
02:19:21.860country it's a big night for us as well so i appreciate you guys bearing with us
02:19:24.880as we do this so i want to go back to the numbers uh because this is really uh the important part
02:19:30.240of tonight is not what we're saying or who we're talking to but it's what canadian voters are
02:19:34.760deciding. When they went to the ballot box today, of course, polls are closed across the easternmost
02:19:41.340provinces in this country. And we're seeing a not too bad turnout for the Conservative Party as it
02:19:47.800stands right now. Now, some ridings have been called. Certainly some have just been, we're just
02:19:53.620reporting leads or those that are trailing. But the riding that I want to speak about in particular
02:19:59.920is the bellwether riding that we have been going back to time and time again.
02:20:05.500As more polls come in, St. John Kennebacchus is turning out to be exactly what we expected it would be,
02:20:14.020which is an outlier in the region, but potentially a bellwether for the rest of the country.
02:20:19.660St. John Kennebacchus is Wayne Long's riding.
02:20:22.760You probably know Wayne Long if you do watch Question Period.
02:20:26.060He has been a longtime member of Parliament and he has been a huge supporter of Justin Trudeau.
02:20:31.800And then Mark Carney, as you know, as Mark Carney has taken the reins here in Ottawa.
02:20:39.640So Wayne Long is sitting at 3,100 votes and Melissa Young, the challenger, the conservative challenger for that riding, is at 1,900 votes.
02:20:51.420So she's coming up on 40%. But as we predicted, if that riding does not exceed 40%, if that riding doesn't exceed 40%, it's going to be a massive issue for the Conservative Party.
02:21:04.000Now, not many polls have been reporting yet. We're at a very small number of polls that have completely reported.
02:21:12.180so we're going to go over to uh the new brunswick sorry not new brunswick but um
02:21:18.180newfoundland ridings which we have officially declared central newfoundland uh to be a conservative
02:21:24.820uh get it is clifford small he's the conservative party candidate in that riding and it's looking
02:21:30.660like the neighboring ridings beside that uh terra nova and long range mountains are trending in a
02:21:37.220similar direction with the conservative party upsetting both of those two liberal candidates
02:21:42.740now we're not declaring those two writings yet but we are saying right now that it is likely the
02:21:48.980conservative party will uh will be taking those writings uh from the from the liberal party
02:21:55.620we're gonna go uh see we should have some guests coming on the stream here soon uh we're just
02:22:00.980speaking with the green room to see exactly when that is going to be happening um but we are going
02:22:06.580to continue going riding by riding to see exactly what is going on in these first few ridings that
02:22:13.220uh have been called and declared the conservative uh the the the liberal declarations that have that
02:22:20.180have come out so far are the riding of labrador it's a huge riding in newfoundland uh and philip
02:22:27.140earl who is the uh liberal candidate there is an incumbent it is being declared that that riding
02:22:33.700will go liberal which was expected but it is one of the few that is fully in the bag for the liberals
02:22:40.100right now acadia bathurst is another one that is coming out 70 for the liberal party of canada
02:22:48.260which is a little bit surprising um that they're doing that well um but uh depending on how the
02:22:55.140rest of the ridings go in that area uh will determine how the conservatives do uh and how
02:23:00.580the you know how the liberal party does in the easternmost ridings of this country paul connors
02:23:05.060in avalon uh he is doing exceptionally well as well with 53 of the vote uh steve kent is looking
02:23:13.380like he's going to struggle that's the conservative party candidate there he's going to struggle
02:23:18.420to uh upset that riding the conservative party really hoped that that would be happening uh that
02:23:23.700the conservative party would be able to break through a little bit there and it's turning out
02:23:27.060to just not be the case we're just waiting for some more results to come in uh here with um
02:23:39.620more writings closing in 30 minutes we're going to have more coming on here soon with updates from
02:23:45.860our decision desk that we will be relaying to you guys shortly i do want to mention you'll see me a
02:23:51.620little bit looking at my screen uh i am chatting in this live uh chat room that we have on sub
02:23:58.020stack junior news is hosting this exclusive chat room for subscribers and in the bottom left hand
02:24:02.500corner of your screen you'll see this qr code which if you scan it uh you will be able to see
02:24:08.820the spreadsheet that i'm looking at as results come in from election canada and as we are able
02:24:14.180to report them. We are chatting with our subscribers about what is going on in this
02:24:24.500country. So we are just waiting for our next guest to come on the show. Barbara Kay should be the one
02:24:28.920that joins us. She's a reporter with the National Post. We're just waiting for her to come on the
02:24:34.860screen now. Oh, there she is. There's Barbara. How are you today? I'm fine. I'm fine, Kean. How are you?
02:24:40.520busy. Not too bad. Yeah, it has been a busy day for sure. I was just wondering, I wanted to ask
02:24:46.800you, how are things, you're out east right now, how are things looking out there from the voters
02:24:51.360that you've spoken to today? In Montreal or in general? Yeah, well in general, but in Montreal
02:24:58.360specifically, we're curious. As someone out west, it's hard to understand exactly what
02:25:04.600the political zeitgeist is out there. There's just so many more moving parts out there than
02:25:10.040or is out west with the Bloc, with the NDP, with the Liberals and the Conservatives.
02:25:14.240What is going on there from your perspective?
02:25:16.820Okay, so I think the NDP are out of it, totally.
02:25:20.940So it's really the Bloc, the Liberals and the Conservatives.
02:25:25.400And Conservatives, I think they're hoping to get nine seats in the province.
02:25:30.340In Montreal itself, they probably won't get seats.
02:25:34.960It's in the Quebec City area where the Conservatives have had strong showings in the past and where they may have.
02:25:42.960It's really the bloc that we're watching because the bloc traditionally has been stronger in the past and would have been stronger without the Trump effect.
02:25:54.140and uh if the bloc had a strong showing in quebec in general it would really uh it would
02:26:01.800really work to the conservatives advantage in in creating a minority government uh with you know
02:26:07.780and they would be very supportive of some of the conservative ideas so um they have to get
02:26:17.360they have to get 32%, break through that 32%.
02:26:21.060And none of the pollsters that I've seen are willing to predict
02:26:27.180because it's too close to call, or it was too close to call a while ago.
02:27:03.560What would look good for them is I'm trying to think of the number, the magic number that they have to break through.
02:27:11.000but they'd have to get like 30 seats or more uh to do well in montreal the liberals in the anglophone
02:27:20.760sector and even in the uh even in the francophone sector it's pretty liberal pretty darn liberal
02:27:27.800um you know my own writing was um uh mark carno's writing and before that um uh lucien
02:27:37.640Lucille Robitaille, was it? I forget. Anyways, it's very, very, very liberal. So I,
02:27:43.080I voted my protest vote to make sure that, you know, the population numbers at least, you know,
02:27:48.440recorded a few votes for, for me and my husband, so. Yeah. If you don't mind me jumping in here,
02:27:56.280Kian, great to see you, Barbara. I was off, but I'm back on the feed. One of the interesting things
02:28:01.080about watching the debates was how well Yves-Francois Blanchet performed. He seemed to be
02:28:06.620talking about the issues actually that mattered to me. He was the one that was hardest on
02:28:10.480immigration, really hammering Mark Carney on conflict of interest and accusing him, rightfully
02:28:16.340so, of saying different things in different parts of the countries, in parts of the country,
02:28:20.520different languages. So when Mark Carney was in Alberta, he was talking about building pipelines
02:28:24.360when he was in British Columbia. He said he was going to use the Emergencies Act to build a
02:28:27.460pipeline. Two days later, he's on French CBC saying never, never going to happen, never going
02:28:31.720to happen. Yeah, I thought he had a really good night on election night. He was also the only
02:28:35.680person to mention the word Islamism, but nobody else took him up on it. And I thought that was
02:28:41.280too bad because that is one of the many issues that have not been discussed in this election
02:28:47.880cycle. And that really should have been. There are just a lot of issues, cultural issues that
02:28:54.260mark carney doesn't want to go near at all uh so people like him uh he's sharp-witted but he um
02:29:03.860if it weren't for the trump effect i i think he would have had an extremely good night
02:29:08.020uh you know quebecers are funny they're very nationalistic but they got thrown by the trump
02:29:16.020effect and and and they're still federalist at heart when it comes to stability uh they want
02:29:21.780that stability you know the old story about wanting to be an independent country within a
02:29:27.140strong canada you know that's the that's been the usual there's one writing that i follow with
02:29:33.540extreme interest and that's uh um mount royal which was pierre trudeau's writing and is now
02:29:43.220and it was erwin kotler's writing for many years and it's it's one of the strongest liberal writings
02:29:48.660in the country and the most dependable. However, since October 7th, it's, it went up for grabs
02:29:55.900because the, you know, the Kearney government is the same as the Trudeau government in that
02:30:02.000respect, very little interest in stepping up to the plate on combating anti-Semitism and very,
02:30:09.780very strong on keeping Muslim voters satisfied and respecting their, you know, their wishes.
02:30:21.100And so Anthony Housefather, who's had that writing for many years, he's a very nice guy,
02:30:26.080very decent guy, but he's had zero impact on the government. Trudeau made him his special advisor
02:30:33.280on anti-semitism to give him you know a kind of symbolic role but he has no power and he never
02:30:39.600did he he he was briefly parliamentary secretary um to um an anida anand what's is it and i forget
02:30:52.320but then he supported christia freeland for the leadership so i mean so he has zero influence and
02:30:57.600and he'll never be a cabinet minister, but the guy who's running against him, Neil Obermann,
02:31:03.480is a very strong guy. He's a lawyer who was successful in getting some of the encampments
02:31:09.520at McGill shutdown, and he's been running a very good campaign. You know, the Jewish residents of
02:31:17.700the writing are, I think, the second most densely Jewish in Canada. The most Jewish is Thornhill,
02:31:24.760I believe in Ontario, but here we have, you know, something like 25% of the riding is Jewish,
02:31:31.960and if they all come out and vote one way, it's definitely very, they are able to swing that
02:31:38.440riding. So it could go conservative, and so we're watching that, and that would make it the only
02:31:45.320conservative riding in Montreal, because if he gets other, if he gets conservative
02:31:50.760ridings at all it won't be in montreal it'll be further north uh so having um a conservative base
02:31:57.560in montreal would be very important to poly ev and he would i think uh neil oberman would for sure
02:32:04.520get a very good position in the government and he would have influence so that's i just want to
02:32:09.000interrupt here uh and and let uh our viewers know that we are calling two ridings now officially
02:32:17.080for the conservative party uh carol ainsley of long range mountain uh will be the next member
02:32:24.280of parliament uh one of the newest member of parliaments for newfoundland and labrador
02:32:29.240uh she is going to she has now exceeded 10 000 votes over 54 of the popular vote in her riding
02:32:36.440which is absolutely surreal for the conservative party in that area they knew that they were going
02:32:41.320to do a little bit better in this part of the province but they're doing exceptionally well
02:32:46.440there. Not too far behind it is Terra Nova and the Peninsulas, which will be another upset. If
02:32:52.720they do secure that, that will be the second handover from the Liberal Party to the Conservative
02:32:57.380Party tonight. And it's still just early hours of the campaign. What we're calling for the Liberal
02:33:02.800Party, just to run through them super quickly, Avalon, Labrador, Acadia Bathurst, that's Serge
02:33:11.000cormier's writing and then of course um uh i i'm not even going to try to pronounce it uh it's
02:33:17.960bezjour i i think uh it's dominic leblanc's writing of course that was going to go liberal
02:33:23.640and it did uh it went resoundingly liberal at almost 60 that has now been called as well
02:33:29.720and just as i'm reading this uh there's another declaration for tobik medicac uh i am sure i'm
02:33:37.720butchering these terribly you'll have to forgive me but richard bragdon the conservative party
02:33:42.200candidate uh has secured that seat he was an incumbent though unlike the two conservative
02:33:46.840writings that we've already called that is an incumbent seat secured for the conservative
02:33:51.160party so right now uh i it i think it is too early to say whether this is going well or not
02:33:57.000i think we'll bring our decision desk back soon to actually give an authoritative statistical
02:34:02.280analysis of whether it's a good night or a bad night for the conservative party as we're just
02:34:06.840projecting into the evening um but right now you know you can't be too upset with two uh two upsets
02:34:13.240of big liberal names wow this is so interesting barbara like i want to get your thoughts on this
02:34:19.880because it seemed that the pollsters were all pretty unanimously saying that this was going to
02:34:24.600be a huge liberal blowout tonight and i don't know that this is any early predictor it could just be
02:34:29.640a few anomalies but i'm deeply skeptical of the polls i know a lot of our audiences as well what
02:34:34.680do you what do you think of the the polls and the way that they've sort of all followed each other
02:34:39.080as a pack like kind of mirroring what each other is saying i have i i every election lately i have
02:34:47.400less um uh kind of confidence in the pollsters i think what happened in the united states
02:34:55.160at the last election just blew my mind how far off the mark uh the pollsters were
02:35:02.200and so I have taken the ones who say it's going to be a liberal blowout with a grain of salt
02:35:08.580I don't think I ever came around to thinking okay they're so far off the market it's going
02:35:15.140to be a conservative blowout I don't think that but I mean I have a very I think it's a very
02:35:22.840well-founded hope and hearing about these seats that Kian just told us about seems to me a very
02:35:29.400good sign um that well i can add some color to that um long range mountains for the conservatives
02:35:37.080our juno news decision desk modeling was projecting that the conservatives would win that by 47
02:35:44.840percent and for context for everyone if if you just want a little bit of hope here uh they're
02:35:50.680now winning it by 54 so that's exceeding uh that's exceeding it by almost eight percent of our models
02:35:57.240which were already um aggressive given how we were you know our juno news neighbor poll that
02:36:03.000we had been relying on already showed uh better results for the conservatives than pretty much
02:36:07.720any other uh pollster in in the country uh and now with our models with that aggressive
02:36:13.480conservative polling uh i shouldn't say conservative but with that aggressive
02:36:18.520polling for the conservatives um they're exceeding that in that one riding so it's just one one note
02:36:24.360and it could be a regional difference uh you know up to five percent you can say uh is it could be
02:36:30.520caused by a good or bad candidate of course the majority voters vote based off of who the leader
02:36:36.280is uh it goes leader party loyalty and then it goes down to who the candidate is whether they're
02:36:42.120a good candidate you know have they been a long time community advocate volunteer or whatever
02:36:46.040maybe they're a star candidate that would only change uh the actual results by about five percent
02:36:51.160And that could be what we're seeing here. But, you know, we're not you can't discredit yet that maybe this is just turning out to be better for the conservatives than expected.
02:36:59.660I certainly hope you're right. I've just the last couple of days, I've been so antsy and jittery.
02:37:10.520I can't settle down to anything. So I'm so glad this is going to be over a few hours, whatever.
02:37:16.000but but it's been a whirlwind uh whirlwind for a few months now ever since uh ever since
02:37:22.320Justin Trudeau announced that he'd be stepping down we knew that it was time to put the seat
02:37:25.740belts on uh because it was going to be a bumpy ride and now we are at the point in the night
02:37:30.620where results are actually starting to come in for Quebec so the Bloc Quebecois has received
02:37:37.160and reported their first votes um if if you could see the riding name that is in front of me right
02:37:44.280now, you would understand why I'm not trying to pronounce it. It is like 18 syllables and it's
02:37:49.580all in French. But Alexis Deschamps, I think is his name, it is already pretty clear that he is
02:37:57.980going to run away with this. It is two out of 300 polls. So maybe it's just polls that are
02:38:05.000favorable to him, but he is now sitting at 46%. That is with a split with the Liberals. The
02:38:13.400Conservatives are trailing in that riding.
02:38:15.120That's the first riding being called in Quebec.
02:38:19.880I am not even going to try to pronounce this one.
02:38:26.120So, you know, we will see as the night goes on how that goes.
02:38:30.020But polls are going to continue to close.
02:38:33.160And as ridings get called, I will just chime in here and hopefully not interrupt too much as we actually have decisions on each individual riding.
02:38:42.260all right well thank you for that kian and thank you so much for your time barbara this is barbara
02:38:46.400k from the national post we always appreciate your insights and we will be watching that mount
02:38:50.560royal riding now in quebec thank you for that added uh insight i hope i hope the conservatives
02:38:55.120managed to uh pull up a big upset there that would be really interesting thanks thank you thank you
02:39:00.700barbara and we are going to just go right into our next guest i'm super pleased to be introducing
02:39:05.380sam cooper who's an investigative journalist he runs the page called the bureau on subsec and he
02:39:11.240has just been phenomenal in feeding stories that are completely counter to what you find in the
02:39:17.240legacy media exposing mostly the work of china and the interference that they run in our elections
02:39:23.400the deep integration that they have in our country really alarming stuff things that you would expect
02:39:29.160a free press to be reporting on and yet they don't so do we have sam there sam jumping in
02:39:35.640Hey, Sam. Welcome to Juno News' live election broadcast. Great to see you.
02:39:45.740I'm feeling good, like everyone. I've been chasing this campaign in my own way, where my expertise is strong, and I'm enjoying your coverage.
02:39:55.180And it looks early on like we have a real a real race here.
02:39:59.240So we'll all be up, you know, tonight and I'll be following writings of my special interest.
02:40:05.760And that is where China is interfering in ways that no Canadian should accept.
02:40:10.980And, you know, I'm happy that I've been able to lead stories that were then jumped on by New York Times and the Globe and Mail.
02:40:18.300And there's just like really serious interference going on from the top support of Mark Carney to the bottom.
02:40:24.840And when I say bottom, I mean physical intimidation of Canadian election candidates, especially in the Toronto area.
02:40:32.820And so what specific writings then are you looking at?
02:40:35.200Obviously, we're talking about Markham Unionville, where Paul Chiang was the candidate and he was removed.
02:40:39.920What other writings do you think have been, you know, had China's thumb on the scale?
02:40:46.260Well, I start out in Richmond, Steveston.
02:40:49.620That's where Kenny Chu lost. As everyone knows, it's proven that a very egregious attack because, you know, he's a Hong Kong Canadian.
02:40:59.700Interestingly, I think a Christian background and Beijing doesn't like that.
02:41:04.540And so he suggested a foreign agent registry and was attacked through all vectors.
02:41:09.800And I believe, you know, I although it hasn't really come out, I think physical security was a concern there.
02:41:16.480He was beat by Parm Baines for the Liberals, who was, I believe, the subject of the NSI cop report in terms of a person benefiting from textbook foreign interference.
02:41:29.940And I won't get into the weeds too much, but very simply, Mr. Baines was asked on a Beijing sort of intelligent, sort of, I would say intelligence linked to media channel, you know, what he thought about foreign agent registry.
02:41:43.520Mr. Baines jumped right in and said, it's basically racist. And what do you know? He's
02:41:48.340supported by Beijing. So I'll be looking at the candidate, Zach Siegel, running for the
02:41:54.340Conservatives to see who gets the support there tonight. And as you said, in Toronto,
02:42:01.460two ridings, Markham Unionville, where Peter Yuen is running against Michael Ma, the Conservative,
02:42:06.840and uh dawn valley north uh where joseph tay another hong kong canadian uh democracy advocate
02:42:15.600who as you know has been deeply attacked through cyber operations and as i reported was uh to the
02:42:23.020extent where he was advised not to campaign toward a door this week to put a pause on appearing in
02:42:29.900person and the new york times followed up on my report confirming all that information so mr tay
02:42:35.540is running against Maggie Key for the Liberals.
02:42:39.400And all my indications are Maggie Key would be getting
02:42:42.300the same types of people friendly with the Toronto consulate,
02:45:56.220If The New York Times, you know, followed my reporting and confirmed its accuracy, I suppose, you know, maybe other Canadian media such as CBC might have to do something in the aftermath.
02:46:07.960But I think you're pointing to, one, we have deep institutional concerns where the issues I exposed have not been addressed.
02:46:17.360And also, you know, that that cascades down into Canadian media, which, as you know, a lot of it is, let's just say, quite friendly to the Liberal Party of Canada and not very willing to be very curious about digging into interference from China and also other countries.
02:46:33.760I want to make a note here of some live action that we're seeing in the betting markets.
02:46:40.600You know, the famous poly market that predicted Donald Trump would win had a lot of conservatives concerned early on in this campaign and throughout the end, especially when the conservatives ended up with a 20 percent likelihood of winning.
02:46:54.180You could put 80 cents on Mark Carney and get a dollar back. You could put 20 cents on Pierre Polyev and get a dollar back if he won right now.
02:47:03.760those uh those odds are uh converging actually there's been a huge spike in the likelihood of
02:47:10.560pierre paulia being the next prime minister of this country it went from 20 to 28 just in the
02:47:17.120last few minutes there's been a huge spike so that doesn't mean anything necessarily obviously those
02:47:21.920are not the votes that are being counted in the ballot box but they were accurate when donald
02:47:26.080trump ended up winning so seeing those converge here in the early hours of uh election night it
02:47:31.440It is definitely got to be, the war room is certainly watching those numbers, and they're probably pleased to see that convergence happening.
02:47:37.580I would like to ask Sam a quick question.
03:05:46.800And do you think that they should have maybe tried to get out there a little bit more?
03:05:50.760Well, I think part of the sensitivity around Donald Trump and just in general, you know, America being painted as now our, you know, quote unquote enemy because of the tariffs created a problem for them in the campaign.
03:06:05.640I think the strategy for them was to basically avoid a lot of the major podcasts, including Jill Rogan, you know, Patrick David Betts.
03:06:13.880And so I think that was done with precision and with intent, and I think they avoided it.
03:06:20.260And in a way, you know, my and like both of you have mentioned, like I'm very explicit about my bias and I think people are OK with it because I like to focus on facts.
03:06:33.560I like to focus on truth. I, you know, have the facts right behind me.
03:06:37.520I love using, you know, TikTok's ability to have a green screen behind you and speak to those facts.
03:06:42.400And I basically read through, analyze and interpret. And I give my interpretation and I like to go through it in a logical manner. And I think that there's, you know, the reason that's important is I felt as though I was trying to reach that audience that maybe the Conservative Party couldn't reach themselves.
03:07:02.460And I think, you know, having influencers like, you know, myself and Jasmine, and, you know, just in general, many others that have this wide reach does bring some yin to mainstream media's yang.
03:07:17.300And I truly believe mainstream media is extremely far right reaching.
03:07:21.400i believe it creates a massive problem and the peers rally in oakville the consistent messaging
03:07:30.160i heard was i wouldn't have voted conservative if it wasn't for you i had a gentleman a young guy i
03:07:37.120think he was probably in his mid to early 20s he's like i drove for five hours to see you
03:07:41.920and he's like i came down for this event to see you it was just it was absolutely mind-blowing
03:07:47.040at how many people you know i'm able to reach since uh the start of january i'm at i think a
03:07:54.340quarter of a billion uh views and i focus and this is across the three platforms and you know my
03:08:01.920and there's there's a rawness to what i do and what i say and and the rawness is you know i even
03:08:08.480i was approached at the event you know hey mario we'd like to do a sponsorship with you are you
03:08:12.480interested and i said no like i i don't take sponsorship i don't take money i don't promote
03:08:17.680anything i will never have anything online and i think that that creates this level of trust
03:08:24.460and people know that you know what i'm going to give them i'm not selling anything the only thing
03:08:30.100i'm doing this for is for change and literally my whole and this is this is i think the funniest
03:08:34.900part of the whole thing is i built my platform criticizing the liberal party just criticizing
03:08:42.140all of the corruption all the scandals everything that has happened over the last you know year and
03:08:46.740a half I mean for years and I'm just outlining it to people um and I think that the funny thing is
03:08:53.120I had a chuckle with my wife is if the conservatives you know do pull ahead and they do win
03:08:58.100I kind of created this self-destruct mechanism on on my account because that's what the whole
03:09:04.400account was created over and you know you know I'm okay with that yeah you're gonna run out of
03:09:09.780content. Well, hopefully not. I mean, I was feeling pretty good about ourselves here, Mario.
03:09:13.660I think we have like 12,000 live viewers or maybe a little higher actually. And then you go and drop
03:09:19.600your statistic about a quarter of a billion views and it's like, okay, it's like a drop in the
03:09:24.220bucket. I will say I avoided TikTok for a long time. Sam, you could probably speak to this. I
03:09:29.300was worried that it was basically Chinese spyware. Maybe it is. And I also felt like I was too old
03:09:34.200for TikTok because I'm like an older millennial and I'm like, let the kids be on TikTok. I'll have
03:09:39.200youtube show and then i met mario mario is like incredibly popular and he's i mean he looks young
03:09:44.400but he's a dad and he told me that it's like oh i moved to canada 40 years ago i'm like how do you
03:09:49.120look like you're like 25 but but i guess obviously if you moved to canada 40 years ago so i figured
03:09:54.080hey mario's older than me so if he can be a tick tock star then i can too so you inspired me to uh
03:09:58.800to start a tick tock account um sam what do you what do you think of tick tock wow that's a that's
03:10:05.920the question i i have never used it myself and i i'm not against it by by any means
03:10:14.320if i'm being very honest you know i'm under certain sort of um i could say that like joseph
03:10:21.200tay i get certain recommendations from canadian police and intelligence of things that i shouldn't
03:10:26.560do and probably if someone like myself that has very clearly been i can tell you i can share with
03:10:33.280you here that i've i've been told i shouldn't travel to china then probably you know if people
03:10:39.520care enough they can find a back door through anything but there's certain apps that probably
03:10:44.320a little bit easier to get a back door into and i'm not criticizing you know anyone mario obviously
03:10:50.480mario you've had your account shut down haven't you talk a little bit about that
03:10:54.880actually yes i'm on my second account so my first account was shut down i was at 186 000 followers i
03:11:00.800I was just, it was, it was just snowballing.
03:11:03.100I literally had to start from scratch and people don't have,
03:11:08.340people don't understand how hard it is to start from scratch.
03:18:37.120all right folks welcome back to juno news's live stream broadcast really excited to have
03:18:51.760you with us we had some technical issues so we dropped off on x so if you're watching on x right
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03:19:16.060Give us a like, give us a share. And if you have friends and family that are sitting at home
03:19:21.200watching the CBC, just turn the CBC off. We're trying to replace the CBC. And, you know,
03:19:26.520Pierre Polyev cannot do it alone. Yes, I hope he wins. I hope he wins the government just so that
03:19:30.240he can do one thing, and that is defund the CBC. But we have to have something to replace it. We
03:19:35.040have to have a professional, serious news organization that can do the work. That is
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03:20:00.140tonight we're offering a very special feature. You will see in the bottom corner of my screen,
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03:20:26.640a spreadsheet. A spreadsheet? Why am I trying to sell a spreadsheet? Well, you know, this has got
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03:20:36.200see all the writings all the seats you want to see what the projections are saying what different
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03:20:49.560there's a a tab on the page called chat you can just go ahead and hit the chat button and the chat
03:20:55.480will appear for you on subsac and you can join the conversation we are having a lot of fun on there
03:21:01.960are making our predictions. Kian Beksi gave a very specific projection on there earlier today.
03:21:08.740And I have to say, when I saw it, I thought, you know, this might be a little bit too optimistic
03:21:13.120from our friend Kian Beksi. You know, his dad is running as a candidate in this election. He's
03:21:18.040going to become the MP in all likelihood down in southern Alberta. And so I thought, you know,
03:21:23.540maybe Kian is just seeing the country through rose-colored glasses. And yet here we are,
03:21:27.920After the results came in in Atlantic Canada, Conservatives are performing above expectations, blowing those polling numbers out of the water. So if you're like me and you were quite skeptical of those polls, I think you've been vindicated. That's not to say that this election is in the bag and the Conservatives are definitely going to win. There's still a lot of the night is yet to come. We have a lot of results that will come in.
03:21:51.860And, you know, will this whole election come down to the 905, the area around Toronto, Greater Toronto?
03:21:58.840I'm not sure. I think a lot of it will also depend on what happens in Quebec.
03:22:03.460I think that in order for there to be a pathway for the Conservatives, the bloc must overperform.
03:22:09.500And I think they might. I thought that Yves-Francois Blanchet, I didn't know much about him before this campaign,
03:22:14.200but he did really impress me during the debates.
03:22:16.760I thought that he had the most pointed jabs at Mark Carney. He did the most damage to Mark Carney.
03:22:22.840He raised cultural issues like immigration that seems like a lot of the other candidates didn't
03:22:27.300want to touch. So, you know, I'm still holding on hope. I'm still optimistic. Let me know what you
03:22:33.220think. Let me know in the chat whether you think that the polls are right, whether you think the
03:22:38.340polls are wrong and how wrong. Right. That's the other question, because the margin of error on
03:22:42.900any poll is two to three percent so the poll could be off by two to three percent in either
03:22:47.280direction meaning if if the poll has conservatives at 39 and the liberals at 42 the liberals could
03:22:53.540be down two to three points so down to 39 the conservatives could be up two to three points up
03:22:58.120to 41 meaning it could be either way and i have kian bexty back on the line with us kian how's
03:23:05.260the night going for you any any news to report the uh surge that we had uh we have some updates
03:23:12.480The surge that we saw Pierre Polyev have on Polymarket has now crashed back down to the baseline that we saw from this morning at about 20%.
03:23:22.500There's actually some good news for Pierre and supporters of the Conservative Party.
03:23:27.100In Central Nova is a riding that I think is quite interesting to take a look at.
03:23:32.040It is coming up here with, it's Sean Fraser's riding for background there.
03:23:39.200He is a huge Liberal Party brand standard, even of Justin Trudeau's cabinet.
03:23:47.000I think he was one of the fellows who wanted to go spend some time with his family and then he came back.
03:23:52.020But he might not be. I don't know about that.
03:23:54.800But Bryson Jenkins, the Conservative candidate running against him, this stalwart of the Liberal Party,
03:24:01.940he is actually set to upset Sean Fraser.
03:24:05.360So by over 400 votes, it's just 2%. So it's razor thin margin. But we're seeing with 150 out of 229 polls reporting that the Conservatives are leading in central Nova. We're not going to see a call on that specific riding made until far later into the night, because in that situation where it's so, so razor thin, and it's an upset, something that wasn't, I don't think, predicted even by the Conservative Party themselves to happen.
03:24:33.320They're going to wait until the advance polls are in.
03:24:35.620And the last poll is called so that they can actually be certain.
03:24:39.360Is Sean Fraser just going to be shown the door by voters, even though he wanted to come back in a Mark Kearney government?
03:24:47.360It looks like voters are showing in the door.
03:25:29.540Now, one thing that we're seeing across eastern ridings in rural eastern ridings specifically is the Conservatives are doing very well.
03:25:38.400It's the metropolitan areas that they're not really succeeding in.
03:25:42.000And we're going to see if that comes and bites them where it hurts in Ontario and in Quebec.
03:25:47.480Once those ridings in Ontario and Quebec start reporting, we'll be able to see a more full picture.
03:25:52.700But while they're outperforming expectations in rural ridings in eastern Canada, we're wondering, is that potentially going to hurt the models that we're projecting that there was even a sliver of hope for the Conservative Party?
03:26:08.360because if if their vote is not distributed efficiently across the country as it is
03:26:12.920appearing to in eastern canada there's a question as to whether or not the conservatives can break in
03:50:22.740What's interesting about the People's Party of Canada is that their policies resonate with a large part of the Conservative Party base, but they haven't been able to turn that into votes.
03:50:31.280Whether that's because voters don't believe that they will actually be able to win, or if they think that the threat of the Liberal Party is just too much to risk going to any alternative other than the Conservative Party establishment.
03:50:44.260It remains to be seen. And the results, but I suppose the results speak for themselves. It is unlikely that the PPC will form, will win any seat in this election tonight from what we're seeing here.
03:50:58.380I speak to a lot of conservative supporters who say that they like the ideas of the People's Party, but they just don't understand the purpose of it.
03:51:05.080Like, when you have a leader like Pierre Polyev, who is the real deal, it's true blue, actually true blue, and he wants to push the country in a more conservative direction, the need for a right-wing protest party, it just doesn't seem very evident.
03:51:20.900And I have a lot of time for Maxine Bernier.
03:51:22.860I think that he is a very passionate, sincere person, but I didn't understand the campaign strategy of going on.
03:51:29.340And I mean, it was interesting to see him on American podcasts, and I wish that Pierre had done a little bit more of a more selection of podcasts and bigger podcasts as well.
03:51:37.720But I didn't really see him doing much out there.
03:51:41.400And at this point in time, it just seems like anything getting in the way of stopping the liberals to, you know, the average conservative voter just doesn't really make sense.
03:58:38.340You know, that's a very good question.
03:58:39.420And I really put it down to the NDP federally just having a very poor leader, running a
03:58:47.800very poor campaign and not being able to connect with people.
03:58:50.540And when you look at the NDP in British Columbia, the NDP party in British Columbia, they're
03:58:54.740actually more aligned with the federal liberal or you might say that the federal liberal is more
03:58:58.880aligned with some of the some of the components of the NDP party the two have really come very
03:59:05.320close together and so I think ultimately that's just something that we're seeing in British
03:59:10.100Columbia and it'd be it's going to be very interesting to see these results tonight
03:59:13.440yeah so when you're looking at the results in British Columbia which are the last polls to
03:59:20.460to report in this country, which areas are you expecting a Conservative breakthrough to happen?
03:59:25.840I'm really looking at Vancouver Island. I'm expecting to see some pickups for the Conservatives
03:59:30.580there. Ellis Ross, somebody that I work closely with up on the North Coast, I think they're going
03:59:36.420to win there. Some of the seats that I think are going to be quite interesting, you know, a seat,
03:59:41.120for example, in Delta with Jesse Sahota that's running there. I think that's going to be a very
03:59:45.900tight race and the polls were showing the Liberals should win that seat. And I disagree with that. I
03:59:51.060think that's going to be a really close race. You know, Carolyn Finley is going to, I think she's
03:59:55.360going to pull that off. I think she'll win that riding. There's one riding in the Okanagan I'm a
03:59:59.220little concerned about in terms of it. But, you know, I think really when you look at the campaign
04:00:04.480that the Conservatives are running, their efforts on the ground, they've been doing such a great
04:00:08.500job in Eastern Canada in terms of outperforming. You know, I'm pretty optimistic at this point that
04:00:14.480the Conservatives are going to pull off and hold some of the seats, as well as do those extra
04:00:19.760pickups that they need in British Columbia to help them with potentially forming a majority here.
04:00:24.400That would be, the Conservatives forming a majority government tonight would blow everyone's
04:00:29.780expectations out of the water. But, you know, coming from British Columbia, it's interesting
04:00:33.520to hear your take on that. I'm also curious to hear your thoughts on Vancouver Island, which is
04:00:39.340set to change entirely. There might be one riding that the NDP are able to clutch onto,
04:00:46.000but given the record of just one seat that we're reporting them leading in right now,
04:00:50.720that might even be up for grabs. Can you explain the dynamic, the political dynamic of Vancouver
04:00:56.980Island and how are the Conservatives possibly breaking through this area that is not typically
04:01:02.600known to be a Conservative stronghold? I mean, this is where the Green Party does well in.
04:01:06.520Yeah, and that'll be interesting to see whether the Green Party can even elect
04:01:09.120anybody in this election. But we had some great breakthroughs on Vancouver Island during our
04:01:15.180provincial election. We won North Island. We won Courtney Comox. We almost won another two or three
04:01:21.000ridings on the island. And there's a conservative movement that's there. And what it boils down to
04:01:25.520is a lot of people are just, they're tired of the fact that they have been left behind. They're tired
04:01:31.340with the poor economic performance. People just want a job. Obviously, affordability is a huge
04:01:37.400issue. And I really think that the conservative message and movement was connecting closely with
04:01:43.080people. And ultimately, you know, when you look across the country, if the younger vote comes out
04:01:48.300in the numbers, the Conservatives are going to win this. They're going to win a majority government.
04:01:52.800And I think there's no question in my mind. And so the outperformance that we've seen in
04:01:57.860Atlantic Canada and the good work from the campaign there gives me a lot of hope, I think.
04:02:02.960Yeah. So could you could you tell me a little bit about what it is that the Conservative Party said to British Columbians that resonated with them? You're on the ground. You know what British Columbians need for the rest of the country who's out east watching their polls close right now. What is it that that made British Columbians turn out for Pierre?
04:02:24.080I mean, we saw those record rallies in the interior.
04:02:30.320What was it about Pierre that was speaking to them in a way that he was not speaking to people across the country?
04:02:38.100Specifically to British Columbians, what issues mattered to them that Pierre was talking about?
04:02:42.120I mean, in British Columbia, and I think there's similarities, obviously, in other provinces.
04:02:46.420But I mean, when you look at crime, when you look at the mental health issues, the drug issues, you know, people not feeling safe, when you look at the really poor economic performance that we've had in British Columbia under an NDP government and, you know, obviously with the Liberal government federally, that people are, you know, are really wanting that change.
04:03:06.080They want to see that difference. And so I think, you know, the Liberals are going to are going to do well in a in a number of ridings in the very heavy urban population.
04:03:15.060But I think the Conservatives are going to surprise in a lot of areas in British Columbia.
04:03:19.400Like I say, Vancouver Island, you know, it may come down to that as to who ends up forming a government, whether it's a minority or majority.
04:03:25.940And like I say, I'm optimistic when you look at areas where Pierre had come out, did rallies and the thousands of people that came out.
04:03:33.280Like that was unheard of four or five years ago, certainly in previous elections.
04:03:37.800No conservative would ever have even dreamed of being able to have that.
04:03:41.540So Pierre has been able to connect with people in British Columbia.
04:03:44.620And, you know, that was something that we saw during our campaign as well.
04:03:48.360Obviously, it's interesting when you look at the conservative platform, there was a lot of things in the federal conservative platform which were very similar to things that we ran on.
04:03:56.040And so I was very pleased to see that and certainly how that is connecting with voters in British Columbia.
04:04:03.280Yeah. So one thing that a lot of people have been focusing on in this election is how provincial leaders have been either supporting or have been absent from this race.
04:04:14.400You know, we saw people like David Eby, who's he's a new Democrat, was it seemed like he was supporting Mark Carney.
04:04:23.480You know, he had very friendly meetings with him.
04:04:25.360They walked arm in arm into your legislature when they were having meetings between premier and prime minister.
04:04:31.180These things just don't happen between conservative premiers and liberal prime ministers during an election.
04:04:37.800That kind of photo op is something that Daniel Smith, for example, would run away from.
04:04:44.880So on the flip side, with Pierre being the conservative leader and there being conservative leaders like Doug Ford, Daniel Smith and yourself in British Columbia,
04:04:52.600what role do you see you guys playing in turning the dial nationwide and in your province when it comes to federal voters?
04:05:01.180You know, it's a very interesting question. Obviously, there's going to be a lot that needs
04:05:04.740to be thought about going forward from this election. And, you know, one of the things that
04:05:09.240I've talked about a lot is the fact that we need to think about how we renew our confederation. I
04:05:13.620mean, this is the greatest country in the world. We've got a lot going for us, but we have a lot
04:05:18.860of problems because of, you know, hopeless governments that have mismanaged things. And so
04:05:23.760hopefully we can see that change. But I think, you know, a lot of times when it comes to a federal
04:05:28.820campaign and you know obviously we're not directly aligned with the federal conservative party
04:05:32.660federal leaders don't necessarily want provincial leaders to get involved because sometimes that
04:05:39.780can actually create problems for them in their campaign and so for my part you know i respected
04:05:44.800obviously i was out supporting the conservatives and the conservative movement in in british
04:05:48.820columbia but i tried to play the role that wasn't really too front and center however you know we
04:05:54.820did mail out to all of our membership in the province, asking them to vote for the
04:05:58.900Conservatives. We came out and did some key endorsements and showed that kind of
04:06:03.020support. Lots of our MLAs worked on campaigns and were involved in trying to
04:06:07.140get our MPs elected. And so, you know, we've done what we can provincially in
04:06:11.780terms of it. But it's a delicate balance, of course, for a federal leader because
04:06:15.340they've got to play to a much broader audience across the country, not just to
04:06:19.920the local side. And Pierre's campaign, of course, was no different than most
04:06:24.040campaigns in terms of how they like to play that well uh mr russet i want to be respectful of your
04:06:29.840time it's uh really great to have you on uh the show tonight uh we might touch base with you later
04:06:36.560depending on what's going on but uh i i take what you've said so far about the conservative party
04:06:42.680performance and we will see uh if it turns out to be true that maybe maybe they are having a better
04:06:47.720night than what uh you know i i'm used to being treated poorly by electoral results you know so
04:06:52.800we'll see we'll see what actually ends up happening once the polls close in bc well you know when we
04:06:57.440looked at the uh when we looked at the polling results and some of the internal polls stuff that
04:07:01.660we did uh and that i i looked at it was a lot tighter than what the public polls were suggesting
04:07:06.580and i thought i think we saw that play out in atlantic canada uh and i think it's going to be
04:07:11.140very interesting to see how that plays out um in ontario and like i say i'm looking for some gains
04:07:16.120for the conservative party in british columbia uh in terms of like it would be wonderful to see
04:07:20.640those additional gains in British Columbia as being the seats that could make a difference
04:07:24.480in terms of who's going to form the next government. But thanks for having me on. I
04:07:27.880look forward to maybe chatting again later. Yeah, right on. Thank you, Mr. Rostat. I appreciate it.
04:07:32.360We are going to throw to Sue Ann, who is at the Liberal Party headquarters with a report for us
04:07:40.340for Juneau News, where she's sort of describing what is going on at the Liberal Party headquarters.
04:07:46.160We'll throw to that now, please. Standing in front of the Ottawa venue where
04:07:50.300Liberal leader Mark Carney's election night event is to be held and I have
04:07:56.760watched journalists from Reuters, from Washington, from the Times of London,
04:08:01.700from Slovakia, from Germany, from Italy, from Spain walk in and be accredited to
04:08:07.940cover the event but little old me from True North is not allowed to enter. In
04:08:13.820fact I was told by a gatekeeper from the Liberal Party that I am not on the list.
04:08:20.720well folks i am actually on the list it's called the d list it's called do not disturb
04:08:26.800mark carney with hard questions do not pass go and do not collect any sort of liberal
04:08:37.040we're we're uh working on getting that video from sue ann she is at the liberal party convention
04:08:42.800we're just with uh you know i couldn't even tell you the reason why that wasn't working but
04:08:47.760we'll try to get that to you and the back room just so you know you can cut me off at any time
04:08:51.840because i really do want to hear from sue ann and i don't want her sitting out there for too long
04:08:56.320um i do want to point out about roman babber though we're going to look at the numbers here
04:08:59.920uh in in york center so this is one of those writings that's just outside of downtown toronto
04:09:04.000for people who don't know the area york center roman babber is sitting at 515 votes that's 59
04:09:10.320of the share right now which is a pretty big number but but again that's just with the first
04:09:15.280poll reporting neighboring riding etobicoke north natalie lead is leading by just 10 votes
04:09:22.160and then the other side of that willowdale james lynn is leading and uh upsetting the liberal
04:09:29.040incumbent ali assai i believe her name is these are just really really early numbers of a single
04:09:35.200poll uh full reporting we're going to try and see if we can get candace back on here because i want
04:09:40.480want to ask her, from her perspective, she knows Toronto really well, Candace, would you be able
04:09:46.080to tell me just what would it mean for the Conservative Party if York Centre flipped for
04:09:52.520Roman Babber and Yara Sachs was left out in the cold? You're just muted right now. I'll let the
04:10:00.940back room fix that so that we can hear you. Can you hear me now? Yep, there you go. What would it
04:10:07.040mean for the Conservative Party to have Roman Babber in the House of Commons? And what would
04:10:12.340that mean across the country if the party was able to break in in that way? Well, you know,
04:10:17.360there's an interesting thing that happens in Toronto, right? Like you have Melissa Lanceman,
04:10:20.880who is able to win basically in a landslide right in the middle of Toronto. So it really just
04:10:25.560depends on the demographic of the specific riding. Riding's that have heavy Jewish populations tend
04:10:31.040to vote more Conservatives. That's what benefits Melissa Lanceman. And it's also happening for
04:10:35.940I think he would be a fantastic representative as part of Pierre Polyev's team. He was the most principled conservative in Doug Ford's caucus. That is why he left Doug Ford's caucus and sat as an independent because of the Orwellian lockdowns that we experienced in Ontario.
04:10:52.240He was one of the lone voices of sanity in the Ontario legislature in Queen's Park.
04:10:59.900And I think that he is a fantastic representative.
04:11:02.220I hope that he continues to gain ground in his Toronto seat.
04:11:08.760Now, we do have some unfortunate news to report here, folks.
04:11:13.760The CBC has called it, and we at Juno News are ready to make the call as well.
04:11:18.840We don't know whether it will be a minority or a majority, but it looks like the Liberals have won the election.
04:11:26.920Yes, that is right. Mark Carney will continue to be the Prime Minister.
04:11:32.020He has been elected as those votes are rolling in, as the numbers come in from Battleground Ontario.
04:11:40.140It seems that the people of central Canada have spoken, and they have decided that our country needs another term of Liberals.
04:11:51.080It's just a matter of whether it will be a majority or a minority.
04:11:55.880Our decision desk is saying that they are still unsure, but they are confident that it will be a Liberal government.
04:12:03.480That's interesting, and it's going to be a question of how well they'll be able to work with the Bloc,
04:12:07.980because you can bet that the Conservative Party will not be supporting this government
04:12:12.200and the NDP might not have anyone to support them with.
04:12:16.280It has just been, if anything, today was not an endorsement of Mark Carney.
04:12:21.340It was an absolute rejection of the incompetent political management
04:12:26.200and maneuvering of Jagmeet Singh, who will go down in history
04:12:29.660as one of the most inept, moronic losers to have ever operated in the House of Commons.
04:12:36.520We could have called this two years ago when we saw him standing behind some of Trudeau's most stupid decisions.
04:12:42.900You know, I could see if Mark Carney was operating this government and it was it was his record that Jagmeet Singh was negotiating with trying to pull him to the left.
04:12:50.960That's one thing. But after scandal, after scandal from the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh stood there beside Justin Trudeau with the supply and conference agreement so that he could get his pension locked in.
04:13:05.560Well, now Canadians have told them, told him and his party exactly what they think about that kind of behavior. He put himself before the country. He put himself before his party. And then he flushed his party down the toilet so that he could prevent Pierre Polyev from forming government back when he was pulling, you know, and that was his own decision. And he'll have to live with this, with his record of absolute moronic political operation.
04:13:31.140I couldn't agree more and it was really shocking Kian to hear earlier this week or I guess it was
04:13:36.880last week now Jagmeet Singh come out and say that he did it all on purpose he did it all intentionally
04:13:41.580that he didn't want to prop up the liberals but he had to stop Pierre Polyev and the conservatives
04:13:46.560and that is why he prolonged parliament and continued to prop up the government I don't
04:13:50.500understand why this man is so self-important that he believes that he has the right to block the
04:13:55.980democratic will of the Canadian public that he was there to block a conservative when they were up
04:14:02.000ahead and in the polls. I mean, look down at the bottom of your screen, folks. The NDP are sitting
04:14:06.720at three seats, three seats. So a big part urge that allowed for the Liberal Party to be, as Juneau
04:14:14.480News has declared, the winner of this election. They have 139 seats. They need 172 to get to a
04:14:20.180majority see the conservatives are doing their own with 95 but the total and utter absolute collapse
04:14:27.320of the NDP has absolutely been the story of the election and I'm hoping to get on here shortly
04:14:35.380I believe he's in the back room waiting to come on Brad how are you doing today can you tell us
04:14:42.320where are you and what are you seeing right now yeah thank you I'm in Calgary and you know things
04:14:49.460I would rather come on, not just after you guys called this election from the decision desk, but all that being said, from Calgary here.
04:15:04.040So I should introduce you to our audience.
04:15:06.380Brad Tennant, you are a conservative strategist, longtime operative, both inside and outside the party, helping campaigns and helping the conservative movement broadly across the country.
04:15:16.400So you know really well what it takes to win a campaign, but not just winning a campaign, what it takes to actually govern when you are there, when you are in the halls of power, the negotiating, the bartering that you have to do with other parties.
04:15:50.720And I think the bloc, we haven't seen the final results of what they're going to have.
04:15:55.420But I would think that the bloc is going to be at what has been their recent low of overall results here.
04:16:02.520And with that, I think the bloc is going to be aggressive in wanting to reassert their political position in Quebec.
04:16:09.860So I would think first, Mark Carney is going to be dealing with a Bloc Quebecois that wants another chance at an election that wants to, you know, rebuild its position, some of which looks like they lost Mark Carney this election.
04:16:26.100And Mark Carney, I think with the Bloc, we've known Quebec is quick to look for some concessions and everything there.
04:16:33.840But first things first, I think the Bloc is going to have to work on rebuilding here.
04:16:39.860Well, I am being told by our decision desk that the popular vote from the block is actually
04:24:50.180If you have technical or very specific questions about your writing or some of the polls or some of the numbers that are coming in, you can feel free to ask those questions and we are responding.
04:24:59.300But Brad, one of the themes that I am seeing very heavily in our chat, sad to say, is first of all, people saying that, you know, I can't really imagine a future in Canada if the country is just going to continue to vote for failed liberal policies.
04:25:12.900Maybe it's time to leave the country. Another one is the West is ignored. Alberta is not welcome in this country.
04:25:19.040We don't see a future in Canada as Albertans.
04:25:23.640I'm wondering, you know, from your perspective in Calgary, what's going to happen with this news of another Liberal government?
04:25:31.320And, you know, what are you hearing from people in and around Alberta and Conservative politics about, you know, what's next?
04:25:38.660Yeah, I think it varies. I think, obviously, there was almost people could sense a relief when Pierre was polling so high.
04:25:45.440There was a sense of hope and optimism because I think this part of Canada really just wants to be included.
04:25:53.700And, you know, I think a lot of that hope went to Pierre being successful in this election.
04:26:00.060As far as like going forward, I mean, everybody's going to have a bit of an opinion.
04:26:06.040I think, you know, sites like Juno will follow this as closely as anybody.
04:26:10.760But you're really going to have to see how stuff like that develops.
04:26:13.900There's going to have to be more results favoring Canada's resource sector, favoring Canada's agricultural sector.
04:26:21.760There's going to have to be a drastic move on from kind of Trudeau's government.
04:26:25.740Seeing Mark Carney win gives you very, very little hope for that.
04:26:29.860But on stuff like this, you just really genuinely have to see how it will play out.
04:26:35.660And, you know, I think Albertans are going to be frustrated with this.
04:26:39.620I think they were frustrated in 2019 and 2021 as well.
04:26:45.120But again, Alberta before, like there was one separatist MLA elected in a by-election in Drumheller in the late 80s.
04:26:55.160Outside of that, you haven't seen it really get any kind of on-the-ground traction.
04:27:00.100I think there would still have to be more to go.
04:37:22.980And you have to think about the next generation.
04:37:24.960I mean, how can you convince the next generation to take over agriculture?
04:37:28.620The reality with the Trudeau government and now with the Kearney government is that you are dealing with a highly urban-centric government.
04:37:39.260And urban-centric governments are not friendly to agriculture.
04:37:44.800Is there anything from the Kearney platform that was appealing to you as an industry expert?
04:37:53.680Actually, so this weekend I had the pleasure to talk to the current Minister of Agriculture, Cody Blois, who was just re-elected tonight from the Liberal government.
04:38:03.740And I actually reviewed all platforms.
04:38:07.320I did tell him that I actually believed that the Liberal platform was the most detailed when it came to agriculture and food, to be honest.
04:38:16.440The Conservative platform was very simplistic, easy to understand, but very simplistic.
04:38:21.460and it lacked detail. The challenge, of course, and you probably know where I'm going with
04:38:26.720this, is that will they deliver? That's the thing. Of course, the Liberals are the only
04:38:33.220party looking at processing as a very important node of the supply chain, and I agree with
04:38:39.400that, but they only plan to invest $200 million. You can't even build a new plant, a new federally
04:38:47.440licensed plan with $200 million. They are looking also at compensating farmers with
04:38:53.120agriture stability. They're increasing funding for agriture stability. But again, in their plan,
04:39:01.380it doesn't really acknowledge the fact that agriture stability is a non-popular program
04:39:05.900with farmers. Farmers don't like the program at all, so they're not adhered to it. So whatever
04:39:11.300the liberals will be doing it won't help many farmers at all so so there's the program looks
04:39:18.660good for the liberals but when it comes to execution i i i have my doubts i i want to
04:39:27.300introduce to our viewers erica broody's who is the senator in waiting for alberta and i think
04:39:33.860you're going to be waiting a little bit longer uh i think so here on on the results do you think
04:39:40.340mark carney is going to respect the wishes of albertans and appoint you as the next senator
04:39:44.900of alberta or are your hopes not super high well his uh predecessor appointed all the vacancies
04:39:51.700and most of those people have you know over a decade at least till they hit 75. so not sure
04:39:59.380that that's going to happen anytime soon uh whether it was just drew or mark carney and
04:40:05.540And even Pierre would have had to wait a little bit.
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04:49:54.240Hey folks, we are back. And so it is not the results that we were thinking we were going to
04:50:02.120get, not the result that we were hoping we were going to get, but we will live on to fight another
04:50:06.160day here at June is why independent media is so important because we need to be there on the
04:50:12.460ground to hold this government account, to hold them accountable, hold them to account, to make
04:50:17.660sure that Mark Carney doesn't continue to get away with it. So interesting, Matt, what we saw
04:50:21.560from the polls and again we always take polls with a grain of salt i'm going to ask you how
04:50:25.880closely things are lining up to what those polls were showing but it seemed to me that the more
04:50:31.640that canadians got to know mark carney the more the sort of fade uh the shine faded away and so
04:50:37.960he had a huge uh bump post being selected as a liberal leader and as the campaign went on
04:50:44.680things tightened up i know there's a lot of comparisons i saw a lot of people in the chat
04:50:48.200talking about how it's very similar to what happened in 2024 in the u.s with the democrats
04:50:52.920how they had joe biden he was not popular he was heading towards a historic defeat and then at the
04:50:58.600last minute they yanked him out replaced him with a new candidate and at first kamala harris had this
04:51:03.560sort of like shiny new car effect it was like wow isn't this interesting uh this new person that
04:51:08.440could become our president and people seem to like her and then as soon as she sat down for
04:51:12.360interviews as soon as she started going into like unscripted territory it was like wow this person
04:51:17.800is really extremely left-wing and really out of her depth when it comes to just being able to have a
04:51:24.120firm grasp of the issues. And it was at the very last minute, I think, that enough Americans saw
04:51:30.440through it that they decided they couldn't go with that. They decided to put their fortune with
04:51:35.960President Donald Trump, for better or worse. Now, in Canada, Mark Carney in some ways seemed to
04:51:42.440like game the system i mean he he called the shortest election period possible under law
04:51:49.080he must have known that he wanted to just do this quick and dirty fast and as fast as possible
04:51:55.080with as little as scrutiny as possible before his you know finances even needed to be disclosed
04:52:01.080under parliamentary rule and you know i can't have a wondering had the election been you know
04:52:07.000two three weeks later maybe this would have been a different result so curious your thoughts on
04:52:11.640that and also like how are things lining up with the polls at this point yeah i think he made a
04:52:18.840he made a tactically smart call in uh in calling the election as quickly as he did i think you'd
04:52:23.960see that the polls uh even the ones that were favorable to him started pulling back in the last
04:52:29.160week to 10 days and that closing of the gap uh in those you know polls is probably what's leading
04:52:36.040him to be right on that edge of majority minority at one point early on in the campaign the polls
04:52:40.680are predicting things like 200 Liberal seats. So certainly as the campaign went on, he got less,
04:52:49.320and he got more well-known with Canadians, he actually got less popular. In terms of how the
04:52:54.440polls are performing, overall I think you'd start to see that the sort of that 44-40, 43-40 Liberal
04:53:02.920Conservative vote overall is starting to emerge. We'll see where that ends up as the West starts
04:53:08.680to come in more i would note in ontario right now that it's much closer than most of the polls
04:53:13.880predicted i think it's last i checked something like two point lead for the liberals and that's
04:53:18.360that's i i had i don't think i saw any public uh polls that that called it that close again let's
04:53:24.600see what happens as toronto starts to come in uh more that that will probably widen it out but it's
04:53:29.480certainly closer than i would have expected i think it's also interesting to note in ontario that
04:53:34.440some of those ndp uh areas that uh delivered them seats uh the conservatives are actually doing much
04:53:40.840better and so i'd note uh london fanshaw riding that the ndp currently hold uh last i checked the
04:53:47.160conservatives had a had a small lead there i'd also note two of the windsor widings one where
04:53:52.040brian mass massey's the ndp incumbent i never thought i'd live long enough to see conservatives
04:53:58.520leading at any point in time in an election in windsor but the last i checked both of those
04:54:03.080those Windsor seats had Conservatives leading. Again, I would probably expect those to flip as
04:54:07.060the night goes on. But it's interesting to note that with the NDP decline, it isn't just causing
04:54:13.080Liberals to win seats. There are a few interesting examples where the Conservatives seem to be
04:54:17.600benefiting. That's really very interesting. Now, is that that's entirely because of the NDP
04:54:24.040collapse that the Conservatives are actually winning in Windsor? Is that right?
04:54:28.360Yeah, it looks to me, again, I'd have to really post-election go through poll by polls to really
04:54:33.040get the sense of what's happening there. But when you see that NDP number and an incumbent riding
04:54:37.740below 20 early on in the night, you start to wonder what the heck's going on. I think there,
04:54:45.320let's see where that ends up. But I'd be really interested to look into post-election
04:54:49.800in some of these more working class NDP ridings in Ontario. Did we see NDP votes moving conservative?
04:54:57.400I think people would know, you know, in Oshawa, as an example, that's a very working class NDP writing for a long time and then flipped conservative in the mid 90s and into the 2000s.
04:55:07.580And you'd wonder when when would that realignment maybe start to happen in some other NDP working class writings?
04:55:13.380Oh, that's so interesting. OK, well, can you walk us through other parts of Ontario?
04:55:16.960Like, I mean, what's happening in the 905? I know the rest of our decision desk are here saying that, you know, we're calling it.
04:55:25.320it's not going to be a majority government the liberals will not get to a majority we can i
04:55:31.160think definitively say that there is no path for a majority it will be a liberal minority which
04:55:55.320so there it is folks juno news can confidently declare that it will be a liberal minority
04:56:04.640government mark carney will become the prime minister but he will have to form some kind of
04:56:08.600coalition or at least get a few opposition mps i don't know how close it will be it looks like it
04:56:14.340might be very close remember 172 is the line that they would have had to cross to get to that
04:56:19.740majority so it looks like maybe we'll have to form a coalition with the ndp the bloc
04:56:25.140maybe the Greens, I don't know. Matt, what do you think might happen?
04:56:30.620Yeah, that's going to be an interesting conundrum for him to be in. With the NDP being so low,
04:56:38.700we'll see where they end up, but the Liberals and the NDP together may not have enough seats
04:56:43.860to hold the balance of power in Parliament. And if that's the case, you're going to start to see
04:56:49.040the Liberals looking to parties like the Bloc to have to prop them up. My guess is, not being an
04:56:55.540expert in either Bloc or Quebec politics, but my guess is that the Bloc would be reticent to form
04:57:00.840a formal coalition of any kind with the Liberals and more likely try to hold them hostage on a
04:57:05.700vote-by-vote basis, which could cause some interesting moments in the future. Great. And
04:57:11.420we wanted to bring in Sue-Ann Levy, our reporter with True North, who is on the ground. Sue-Ann,
04:57:16.800we had we saw your report outside the liberal convention or sorry the liberal headquarters
04:57:21.520how frustrating that they were letting in all of these foreign reporters they wouldn't even let
04:57:25.600in a veteran toronto sun retired reporter who's now with true north uh i hear you're at the
04:57:32.320conservative uh hq now why don't you give us a little bit of a scene set or tell us what the
04:57:37.200mood is like there and describe how you're feeling tonight yeah i was banned from the liberal um
04:57:45.120event venue i was told i was not on the list and uh you know basically asked to leave while i
04:57:52.560watched reporters from slovakia and germany and um you know every country in europe times of london
04:58:02.480uh walk in and be greeted with uh you know the the pats on the back so it it uh obviously
04:58:11.600conservative and uh independent conservative journalists long-time journalists don't count
04:58:16.480in the mark carney sphere of things but here i am at uh pierre polyev's uh headquarters or event
04:58:23.920venue and we had no problem getting in greeted with warmth and collegiality but unfortunately
04:58:32.480when the legacy media announced that uh the basically the election was over about an hour
04:58:39.360in uh it kind of sucked the oxygen out of the room uh there's uh they're pretty somber um although i
04:58:47.200see the results are fluctuating back and forth and i always say you know it ain't over till it's over
04:58:52.480until the fat lady sings well that's right especially with all these advanced polls right
04:58:58.000we got 7.4 million advanced polls they're sealed we don't know who they're for yeah sure we can
04:59:03.280assume that they're evenly split but uh you know some of us may still want to hold up hope we at
04:59:09.600juno news have declared that it will be a liberal minority uh suen what's what's on the agenda there
04:59:16.240what time are you expecting to hear from mr polyev and uh you know are there are there a lot of
04:59:22.320people there how are people feeling in the room right now well they you know they're disappointed
04:59:27.200they fear for their country the people we spoke to are very concerned about the future
04:59:34.000as am i and as i'm sure many at juno news are but no idea when pierre polyev might turn up
04:59:44.960i think as the numbers come in i think it's still really really close and i'm not saying
04:59:52.400that the cpc is going to win by any stretch of the imagination but uh you know i get really bothered
04:59:59.680when the legacy media declares a victory you know they're hoping because they don't particularly
05:00:07.120cbc doesn't want their money cut off so they're hoping and uh you know if they declare so it's
05:00:13.120true isn't it candace well you know i guess stranger things have happened i mean i was
05:00:19.360watching the 2020 U.S. election. You know, when I went to bed, it looked like it was going to be a
05:00:24.560Republican sweep. And then all of a sudden, like two days later, with all of those advanced polling
05:00:31.240and mail-in ballots, suddenly Joe Biden took a huge lead. And I think it was four days later
05:00:35.940they announced it. So hopefully it won't go on that long. Hopefully we will have a definitive
05:00:41.500answer tonight. But yeah, obviously quite disappointing. It's interesting. I think a
05:00:47.840of liberals are painting this as sort of like the comeback of the century and like an unbelievable
05:00:52.480lesson um but i i actually imagine liberals are quite disappointed right now i mean the ndp has
05:00:58.160slowly collapsed so not john point that you might not even have enough combined to to make a formal
05:01:03.760coalition uh it's going to be pretty close you can see the numbers at the bottom of our screen there
05:01:07.840so right now it's just a leading so 159 for the liberals 10 for the ndp that would not be enough
05:01:13.120even with that one green vote it still would not be enough as it's possible a very unstable very
05:01:18.320short uh parliament would you could also add i i i really think so and uh you know especially with
05:01:27.360somebody who campaigned with you know blocking and banning some of the people who asked hard
05:01:34.080questions and a lot of things were swept under the rug uh mr carney's assets his history um
05:01:42.880certainly his approach to anti-semitism was a big concern for my community and you know
05:01:50.560the economy he claimed when asked about his financial plan well just trust me i'm an economist
05:01:57.040well i have an mba and i couldn't understand a thing he said about the finances that he purports
05:02:03.840to uh be able to oversee so uh i suspect this won't last long at all um i don't know whether
05:02:13.360you have any feelings on pierre polyam's future i mean he he battled hard he worked hard but uh
05:02:20.640there were so many things against him the media bias trump um the timing everything he couldn't
05:02:28.880have had more things thrown at him. Yeah, I mean, I have to say I think Pierre has the support of
05:02:34.480the party. I think the base is with him. I think they're disappointed by the confluence of events
05:02:38.000that happened around him, notably Donald Trump's interference, which I've said on this broadcast,
05:02:43.040I'll repeat it. I don't think that what Donald Trump did is forgivable. I think it was the
05:02:47.920ultimate betrayal to Canadian Conservatives. I myself cheered him on and wanted him to win back
05:02:53.840in November. I thought he was going to bring in a new golden era of economic growth. I was really
05:03:00.560excited about it. And I can say unreservably now, I feel like I have a knife stabbed in my back,
05:03:05.600that the things that he said about our country, the things that he did to Pierre Polyev are
05:03:10.400unforgivable. It was an absolute betrayal. And we will not soon be forgetting that. But as far
05:03:17.760as what Pierre Polyev did, I mean, we'll have to wait, I suppose, to find out what the final
05:03:21.840numbers are, maybe Matt, John, you can jump in on this, but Pierre Polyev, you know, we're looking
05:03:27.440down at the bottom here, 142 seats. I mean, under different circumstances, that could be enough,
05:03:33.120right? If he's polling at 38 or 39%, that is what Stephen Harper got in the majority. So,
05:03:39.200you know, the situation around him totally changed. But I think the reason that so many
05:03:42.880conservatives felt like we were winning is because we were, right? We were getting the kind of
05:03:48.720support, the kind of excitement, the kind of numbers that in any other election cycle would
05:03:53.040have delivered a decisive election. But just because of this circumstance with the block,
05:03:57.920or sorry, with the NDP collapsing, the block underperforming, and this shiny new liberal
05:04:03.120leader, you know, enough, just the confluence of so many things happening at once led to this
05:04:10.320unfortunate result. But I think, again, that the base is still with Pierre Paulyo. That's my
05:04:15.520that's my assumption. Matt, jump in on that. Yeah, I think just that historical context
05:04:20.880is interesting. Stephen Harper won, as you mentioned, 39% of the vote when he won his
05:04:25.360majority in 2011. And I don't think anybody spun that as being a particularly close election or
05:04:32.000that 39% of the vote was a disappointing result for Mr. Harper. Pierre right now is on track.
05:04:38.240He's almost at 40. And with the West still coming in to report, it's possible he's going to
05:04:43.680actually go over 40 percent of the vote uh if you told me uh at any point in time in the last
05:04:50.64020 years that the conservative party was federally was at 40 i probably would have said it's an easy
05:04:55.360majority the flip side there of course is that the ndps right now under five percent of the vote
05:05:00.320uh again with the west uh maybe they get a bit of a bump at bc and they go over um so i'd almost
05:05:06.400say there's a bit of a good news bad news here that uh if you told me that we were at 40 i
05:05:11.520probably would have called majority but if you'd also told me that the ndp were under five percent
05:05:15.760i probably would have called a massive liberal majority and so the fact that the liberal party
05:05:19.520of canada isn't able at this point to win a majority government with the ndp essentially
05:05:25.280becoming um on the same level as the greens or some of these other minor parties uh i think if
05:05:32.640i was a liberal right now i would probably be uh wanting to take a pretty hard look at at our
05:05:39.760the future of how we can win uh when essentially you're the only left of center party uh running
05:05:46.160well i presume that the ndp will send jagmeet singh packing and select a sensible new leader
05:05:52.400and the next election cycle will sort of be back to normal i don't think the ndp has gone forever
05:05:57.120i mean we you don't want to call one of these parties out right like many people thought that
05:06:01.520after michael lignaciev the liberal party were just no more and that they would never be back
05:06:05.360and then boom all it took was a charismatic uh leader with a famous last name and suddenly you
05:06:10.720know four elections in a row uh for the liberals so i i just presume that someone like a rachel
05:06:16.720motley or um knob canoe or i don't know maybe obby lewis someone will come in and take over this
05:06:23.120party and by the next election cycle they'll be back to uh 20 of the vote sorry can i just uh
05:06:30.160sorry can i just jump in really quickly just because i'm looking at the numbers move in the
05:06:33.680the bottom of the screen there. If you looked at the Juno model and the Juno model with the polling
05:06:40.980that you guys did, you'd see those numbers at the bottom of the screen are very similar to what
05:06:46.560the model predicted. So I think we should also note that not all minority governments are made
05:06:52.340the same, right? A minority government that can't just be the NDP and the Liberals together to form
05:07:00.120majority is a very different thing than the kind of minority government that we've we've had the
05:07:04.560last couple of years again let's see what happens ontario still very early and lots of seats can
05:07:10.040flip back um yeah but i think that's an interesting thing to note don't forget my own riding saint
05:07:18.000paul's in the by-election um i went to sleep and don stewart had lost when i woke up he had won
05:07:26.280so like i said it ain't over till it's over and and they you know the legacy media is reporting
05:07:34.100that the liberals have gained seats when you know five polls are reported or ten polls
05:07:39.940so it's like they're almost a self-fulfilling prophecy they figure if they report it it will
05:07:45.400happen but you know like you say the advance vote hasn't been counted and largely hasn't been
05:07:51.740counting. Right. I think like, sorry, go ahead, Candice. No, I was just going to go back, but
05:07:57.180you go ahead. Go ahead. Oh, I was just going to say, I'm just, as I'm looking off to the side
05:08:01.920here, I'm trying to look at some of these results coming in in Ontario. York region looks to be
05:08:07.020coming in for the conservatives at a higher clip than most of the legacy media or the public
05:08:13.400pollsters would have predicted at this point. I'd note that in there, there's some heavily
05:08:17.860Chinese writings that last time didn't deliver for the Conservatives, and this time seemed to be
05:08:25.700coming in a little bit better for the Conservatives. So some interesting things afoot,
05:08:29.620and I think that's partially what's driving that CPC leading number down below is that York region
05:08:36.980is coming in more heavily for the Conservatives at this point than was predicted.
05:08:42.260Well, our decision desk chat is saying, don't reverse the call or anything,
05:08:46.020but the conservative vote is going up in some surprising ways. So I do still believe that the
05:08:53.220Liberals have won this election, but it might end up being pretty close. Matt, you said that this
05:08:57.660was quite in line with what our Juno News projection was based on our latest poll. We
05:09:02.700projected that the final would be Liberals with 165, Conservatives with 150, NDP with three. I
05:09:09.860don't know how that got so low, but block at 23. So, you know, aside from the NDP number,
05:09:15.880and then, and then if you go to our Juneau News neighbor poll, we have the liberals at 158,
05:09:21.820the conservatives at 157. That, that might not be that far off. I mean, I don't know how many
05:09:28.180polls we haven't included in these bottom numbers. I mean, I could try to do very quick math. It
05:09:33.500looks like there's still 20 or so that aren't there. I guess, presumably that would be British
05:09:37.000Columbia. But interesting to your point, Sue, and it's not it's not over yet. I mean, it does
05:09:43.400seem pretty confident that the liberals have won the election. But, you know, it might be
05:09:48.160incredibly close, so close that the liberals and the NDP together wouldn't be able to form
05:09:52.180a government. In which case, I mean, if they can't combined make enough to pass a budget,
05:10:01.080we may be heading back to the polls very soon. This may be a very short, very unstable
05:10:06.180government. Sue Ann, thank you so much for your time. We'll probably come back a little later on
05:10:10.900closer to when Pierre Polyev speaks, but we appreciate your work on the ground and your
05:10:15.220reporting. I just want to say that I think that once people discover that the emperor has no clothes,
05:10:23.860meaning Mr Carney, there may be a snap election again. So I think a lot of people
05:10:34.660were sold a bill of goods and they may find out very quickly well i think that is probably right
05:10:43.300juno news has another announcement former true north reporter andrew lawton has been elected
05:10:50.500so he will be a member of parliament in the riding of elgin st tom thomas london south and
05:10:58.100And we want to say a big, warm congratulations to our dear friend, Andrew.
05:11:03.060We were sad when you left the world of journalism, independent reporting, and your show, The Andrew Lawton Show at True North.
05:11:10.340Very excited and happy to see that you will be representing the good people in your London area writing.
05:11:17.880Congratulations to our friend, Andrew Lawton.
05:11:28.100wonderful news there i guess uh some sort of relining i mean it's still pretty close here
05:11:37.260matt uh do we have any idea of what the final sort of popular vote is at this point or
05:11:42.100we're really just seeing the numbers and the writings so yeah it looks like again i'm just
05:11:47.680checking off to the side here it looks like uh it's narrowed rather uh significantly it's now
05:11:52.940down to about 43 and a half to 41. Again, I'd expect there's probably a lot of Alberta,
05:11:58.760Saskatchewan ridings that are now really starting to report. We'll see as BC comes in, obviously,
05:12:05.780lower mainland and some of those ridings in the Vancouver area are going to deliver some big
05:12:11.880wins for the Liberals. What I don't have a good sense of right now, but I'll certainly try to
05:12:16.660check as night goes on, is where the city of Toronto is. I'd expect that you're going to see
05:12:22.260some liberals doing quite well there. But I think this is another thing that I think that some of
05:12:28.820the media were a bit lazy about in this election is talking about vote efficiency and the lazy
05:12:34.860narrative of the conservative vote is less efficient, which was certainly true in 2019 and
05:12:40.1602021. But as liberals started to expand their leads in urban centers like Toronto or Vancouver,
05:12:47.020picking up NDP votes, you're going to see their efficiency should actually go down and the
05:12:52.740conservative efficiency should start to go up a bit. Another example of that might be Alberta,
05:12:57.700where the Liberals are probably somewhere over 25% in Alberta at the moment. That has got them
05:13:05.400probably quite a few more votes, but not actually resulted in that many more seats. And so their
05:13:10.240voter efficiency goes down. So I think that's another interesting thing for folks to think
05:13:14.660about. And for pundits to opine on after this election is at the moment, I would say those
05:13:21.380numbers below would indicate that there's a lower liberal vote efficiency in this election than in
05:13:27.680previous ones. Super interesting. Can you walk us through some of the 905 ridings? I'm specifically
05:13:33.300curious to find out what's happening in York, what's happening in Vaughn, what's happening in
05:13:39.360Richmond Hill, because those were sort of the, you know, those were the battleground ridings
05:13:44.220that this election was fought on. I'm presuming they're all going liberal, but maybe you could
05:13:47.920walk us through some of them. Yeah, so I'm just going to look off to the side again as I try to,
05:13:52.080as I try to read these results, but Richmond Hill South, that's a riding with the liberal
05:13:56.920incumbent. Right now, the conservative is ahead by almost 2,000 votes, about half of the polls
05:14:02.600reporting. Again, no way to know how much of that is advanced vote, but that's certainly a pretty
05:14:07.280good sign uh at this point uh markham unionville uh that's a riding that um fewer polls reporting
05:14:15.200only 75 but uh the conservative uh right now has about a 600 vote lead um uh and then if you look
05:14:23.200up to i think you guys talked about new market aurora uh earlier in the night 80 of the 212
05:14:28.720polls reporting so still some some ways to go there uh but the conservative candidate there
05:14:33.760is up by about 600 votes um wow and that's with you know to note there that's with the ndp at 2.2
05:14:40.960of the vote uh i don't think there's many conservatives in ontario who would have thought
05:14:44.880we could win a gta riding or have a chance to win a gta riding uh with the ndp at below three percent
05:14:50.560of the vote and what about the richmond hill uh richmond hill oak ridges aurora what about oh
05:14:56.560Oh, yes, sorry. So, you know, that to me, 75 of the 219 polls reporting so far. And right now,
05:15:03.840the conservative candidate is about 15, 1400 votes ahead. Again, not insurmountable with that
05:15:10.020many polls still to come and not knowing if those are advanced polls or not. But that's
05:15:15.220certainly a better result than most of the public polls would have predicted.
05:15:22.940There's definitely something going on here with those numbers at the bottom tightening and the overall vote percentage, vote share tightening as well that we really need to track because this could be a much smaller liberal minority than the liberals had hoped for.
05:15:44.220And I honestly believe most liberals probably thought that this was a majority government night, not even a minority government night.
05:15:49.960Well, even half an hour ago, it seemed that way. And now all of a sudden, it seems like we are a closer, tighter race. It looks like we have Dan McTeague, a former Liberal Member of Parliament, to join us. Dan, thank you so much for joining the show.
05:16:04.420Oh, good to be here. Thank you for having me.
05:16:06.680Well, so how are you feeling? We're watching the votes come in. It seems like things are actually tightening. I mean, I know we've called it already. We said that it will be a liberal minority government. And yet it almost, when you look at the numbers, I don't know if we can throw them back up on the bottom of the screen, but people are wondering in the chat if we combine those conservative and block numbers, you know, maybe they could form a coalition government.
05:16:29.180I mean, obviously, the party that wins the most seats gets the first chance to form the government.
05:16:34.140But, wow, we could be in for something really interesting over the next few days and weeks here.
05:16:39.540So what do you make of all of this, Dan?
05:16:42.380You can remember the 45th Parliament by the number of weeks it's going to survive.
05:25:42.160The Toronto Star, Globe and Mail, Ottawa Citizen Post Media, many of them had the same article saying that the Conservatives were worried that Pierre Polyev was going to lose in his riding, that they quoted senior sources from the Conservatives.
05:25:55.800It turned out it wasn't from the Conservative Party of Canada, it was from the Ontario PC Party, so you can sort of guess who that might have been, saying that they were worried.
05:26:03.860I dismissed it as total fake news because it just didn't seem right, given that Pierre Polyev had won with such massive majorities throughout his entire term.
05:26:12.160you know, he's been an MP since he was 25 years old. So he's held, you know, there's been some
05:26:16.840redrawing of the seats, but he's held his Ottawa area seat for almost 20 years. So Matt, I'll put
05:26:24.800it over to you, Matt John, our decision desk host. Can you walk us through that writing and walk us
05:26:29.400through any other seats in Ontario that you want to talk about? Yeah, so let's talk about Carleton
05:26:37.760first. That is a writing with a huge amount of advance vote, as people have noted. And I think
05:26:42.640that's one of those writings where they started counting that advance vote early. It's possible
05:26:46.300that some of those returns in Carleton right now are actually advance vote coming in. We'll keep
05:26:51.920monitoring it. I would still say that the fundamentals of that writing, as you noted,
05:26:56.34051% for Pierre in the last election should hopefully drag it back for him. But something
05:27:02.240something certainly to monitor. It would be maximum chaos scenario if the numbers stayed
05:27:08.560this close, but Pierre was to lose his seat. A couple of other interesting things, just to
05:27:13.940call a couple of ridings. So King Vaughn in Ontario, I think we're now prepared to call
05:27:20.080for the Conservative Party, and that's a flip from the Liberals. I think back in the days of
05:27:26.860Mr. McTeague as an MP, it would have been very highly unlikely for the Conservatives to be
05:27:30.860competitive there, but here we are. The other riding I think we're prepared to call is York
05:27:36.460Centre, where Mr. Baber looks to be comfortably enough ahead that he should be able to hold on
05:27:41.160in that riding. And the last CPC flip that I think we're prepared to call is Edmonton Greaseback
05:27:47.340out in Alberta. So again, some interesting ridings coming in. Another one that just got called is
05:27:56.700in the north, Kappas Kays and Timmins called for the Tories. That would be another flip
05:28:02.440from the NDP. So some interesting results. And that number down at the bottom there is staying
05:28:09.800stubbornly close. The Liberals seem to really have a problem getting above about 160. You'll
05:28:15.440notice they climb up to about 160, maybe up to 165, and then they come back down. And that seems
05:28:21.380to be a bit of a hard ceiling for them at the moment, which I would suggest is a pretty
05:28:25.880disappointing result for them based on where I think they all thought they were about a week ago.
05:28:30.560Well, it's interesting. I'm looking at Elections Canada and it's showing the popular vote right
05:28:35.040now, percent of the vote, 43% for the Liberals, 41.4% for the Conservatives. So again, that would
05:28:40.560be a historic high for the Conservative Party of Canada. I don't know that they've ever had an
05:28:45.520election with that high of a vote since becoming the Conservative Party of Canada. Dan, what do
05:28:51.660what do you make of these results coming in in both alberta ontario and uh you know this historic
05:28:57.420uh finish that we're still watching unfold well we know it's a transfer of ndp votes to the
05:29:02.700liberals in much the same way when i lost in 2011 after what 18 years uh it was a transfer of liberal
05:29:08.700votes to the ndp these people are interchangeable and uh they love their uh as long as they can get
05:29:12.940their grift a little bit of money on the side and they can be assured and you know that someone's
05:29:17.420got their back and that they uh don't have to respond to crises that liberals tend to create
05:29:23.260as they did as i mentioned earlier in 2021 and again now in 2025 but it's not working this time
05:29:28.460there's just too many working people out there who are scared young people i think
05:29:32.540i saw a pollster saying young people didn't vote uh conservative they actually voted liberal bologna
05:29:37.740horse bucky they actually did vote for the conservatives and started to show up look i i
05:29:42.780I think this is just sort of a round two is coming up very soon.
05:29:47.500It's going to demonstrate the shortcomings of tonight's voting patterns.
05:29:53.420If the Liberals don't win that 172 or even 173, because, of course, there's always someone who might be sick or decides to cross the floor, whatever the case may be.
05:30:06.600It's going to be, you know, the Liberals are going to be forced to on their heels to try to maintain their government.
05:30:13.400Any of their policies that are going to be significantly damaging, the net zero policies, the whole charade around Mark Carney hiding or being able to hide his assets, his liabilities.
05:30:23.240Everything about Mark Carney is finally going to get exposed and he can't get the protection, the veneer that his paid media was giving him and the pollsters, of course, who were behind it.
05:30:32.000Now Canadians have decided they've seen through the ruse,
05:30:34.760you've given them a shock of their life with Trump and it still didn't work.
05:30:37.940The fact that the Conservatives are at 149, the Liberals only 156,
05:30:41.660when most people had conceded it was going to be a majority for the Liberals,
05:30:46.780And I think the next couple of years, with the strong leadership,
05:30:50.100especially for Pierre Polyev, who has experience here,
05:30:52.760the Liberals have to come back to the House of Commons.
05:30:55.100Mark Carney has to face questions and it's not going to be very easy.
05:30:58.360The Bloc, on the other hand, they worked for the Conservatives before.
05:31:00.920Remember 2006? They worked with the NDP and brought them down. The NDP, as you pointed out, and the LPC doesn't quite cut the mustard. As for the Greens, down to one seat, they're not a factor. So I don't want to put my running shoes away or go and help more conservative candidates. I'm helping 12, 13, 14 of them. I have a feeling that we're going to be doing this again within the next year.
05:31:23.720Well, it's just so interesting, just again, to look at these numbers at the bottom of our screen, because, and this is a question for you, Matt, John. I mean, with the Conservatives at 149 votes and the Bloc at 25, is it possible that those two parties could, like, maybe walk us through the process, because I believe the party that gets the most seats, so that will be the Liberals, will get the first chance to form a government.
05:31:44.720If they don't have enough seats to form a government, will it then go to the Conservatives?
05:31:49.800And is it possible that we could see a formal coalition with the Conservatives and the Bloc
05:32:13.380I was thinking, though, about, if you remember in 2006, Stephen Harper won a minority.
05:32:19.220He won the most seats, but certainly the Liberals could have made an attempt then to form a coalition with some other party to stay in power, but declined.
05:32:28.820And Mr. Martin resigned on, I think, I believe he resigned on election night.
05:32:33.600So there are other options besides formal coalition available to them.
05:32:39.640You know, the Liberal Party certainly has the right to meet Parliament and face Parliament and an early confidence vote on either their throne speech or an early piece of legislation.
05:32:52.200If they feel like they don't have the confidence of Parliament, if they lose that vote, the Governor General certainly could ask the Conservatives to form a government without there being an election,
05:33:04.160if the Governor General is convinced that the Conservatives would be able to have the confidence of the House.
05:33:09.640And that's where I think, whether it's a formal coalition or not, I doubt any party would form a coalition with the bloc. I doubt the bloc would want to form a coalition with any party. But the bloc may see it as advantageous to prop up one or the other, depending on what they feel they can get out of them.
05:33:29.660And so that's going to be a really interesting thing to watch.
05:33:32.520If it stays this close, the bloc are probably licking their chops right now on what they might be able to pull off in the next parliament.
05:33:42.620Right. Well, I want to be respectful of your time, Dan, but I will just put the same question to you.
05:33:47.240I mean, walk us through what scenarios we might see here in the forming of this government.
05:33:52.960Oh, it's quite right. I think we're looking at the Liberals to be asked to form government,
05:33:56.280uh especially if they now have you know 12 15 seat advantage over the conservatives uh um we'll
05:34:02.600have to see whether or not uh the leaders of both parties win their seats of course that's always a
05:34:07.480given but it's uh it's it's important tonight um but uh it's in that context the liberals uh
05:34:14.200are going to have to come up with something extraordinary uh in order to say hey we're
05:34:18.120forming a government based on the following and having uh you know the the block go along with
05:34:22.600them with the ndp it'll work for several months i mean we're not going to an election in 2025
05:34:27.960unless something crazy should happen uh like we saw in 1979 on 19th senate leader gasoline there's
05:34:33.960a funny issue no wonder i like that issue uh but i can tell you that uh you know come 12 14 16 months
05:34:41.160this is going to creep up on us and some people have said said to me oh when that happens people
05:34:44.760are gonna get mad they get mad for the very first week and then they forget about it and get back
05:34:48.680to the business of voting so uh this isn't over by a long shot this is not decided and i think the
05:34:53.560unusual circumstance of things like tariffs and trump having played such an inordinate uh uh you
05:34:59.880know part of this uh of this uh of this election means that canadians are going to want to have an
05:35:04.600election in which they focus on issues that are important to them and canadian domestic issues as
05:35:09.240opposed to uh foreign stuff that uh you know might satisfy one particular constituency one party but
05:35:15.080doesn't really respond to the wider needs of Canadians and I think the numbers tonight
05:35:19.160show if anything Canadians have become unshackled from uh the uh the uh existing legacy media and
05:35:27.720pollsters uh they have all got egg on their face and they're going to there's a lot of splaining
05:35:31.960to do tomorrow when they all wake up and look like they've been misleading the public by these
05:35:36.760polls that really did not do what I did many others have done actually knocking on the doors
05:35:41.720and finding out man that conservative vote is really strong it's very determined i had this
05:35:45.960discussion with john wright uh two weeks ago and said are you guys even looking that he says we're
05:35:50.040starting to see that the liberal vote is not as strong as committed as the uh the conservative
05:35:55.080vote i think that's one of the big takeaways from this election is that people are going to take
05:35:59.400future pollsters and future media interests with a significant grain of salt oh absolutely i
05:36:06.360completely agree with that well dan mcteague former liberal mp we really appreciate your
05:36:10.120your time thank you so much for joining our take everybody bye-bye all right take care and matt
05:36:14.900we will uh come back to you again later we want to bring on noah jarvis who is a true north reporter
05:36:20.120and he is on the ground in richmond hill and he is he did an exit poll for us and i think he's
05:36:27.320coming to us from the conservative the local conservative uh headquarters there for costas
05:36:33.100metagakis who's a former mp he's running again that is in the writing of aurora oak ridge's
05:36:38.740Richmond Hill. I believe we also have Mark Nixon online. Mark is a social media influencer with a
05:36:45.540large following on TikTok and X. So, gentlemen, thanks for joining us. I guess let's go to you
05:36:52.820first, Noah. Tell us about where you are. Give us a little scene setter and what you have been
05:36:57.460reporting today. Yeah, I'm at the Caucasus Managakis campaign party in Aurora,
05:37:04.020uh aurora encourages richmond hill where there's a lot of energy a lot of enthusiasm here by the
05:37:10.740volunteers and some of the campaign staff uh as costas is currently in the lead according to
05:37:16.580uh elections canada data news uh reading the current liberal incumbent by about nine percent
05:37:22.420and this reflects some of the uh stuff that myself and my colleague clayton had been finding in the
05:37:27.300rioting these past few hours. We did some exit polling at a polling station and we asked the
05:37:34.260people who they decided to vote for and we got some astonishing results. We had 20 people tell
05:37:40.500us they're voting conservative, only four people said they're voting liberal and about just as many
05:37:45.460people who said they're voting conservative decided not to tell us who they're voting for.
05:37:48.820This is likely a lot of liberal voters but at the end of the day you had a lot of people who are
05:37:53.300passionate about uh voting for the conservatives and the conservative party and we also did some
05:37:57.700streeters just walking around talking to regular people and a lot of the people who said they were
05:38:02.260voting conservatives were very passionate so you can definitely see that uh based on the election
05:38:07.620results costas is a former liberal conservative mp from 2011 to 2015 so he knows this region very
05:38:13.940well and it seems as if his campaign did a very good job getting out the vote as they're currently
05:38:18.980uh they would currently hold a solid lead in the polling right now well it's so interesting
05:38:23.300let you know that we our decision desk has actually as you said that just called aurora
05:38:28.660oak ridges for the conservative party uh clausus minigakis will be the next conservative
05:38:34.900member of parliament for that riding so you can go to the party and let them know that our
05:38:39.140statisticians in the back room think that there's no path to victory for the liberals in that riding
05:38:45.540now it's so interesting because this is this is the coveted 905 and i would say this is a
05:38:53.780battleground this is where the election is all coming down to and it seems like the conservatives
05:38:58.900are pulling out the wins that they need and we just announced that they won in king vaughn
05:39:03.220they're winning in markham unionville the uh the the riding where the uh former mp that said that
05:39:11.780the Chinese government bounty, that the Conservatives should get turned over for that. So
05:39:17.380it seems like the Conservatives are coming through in some of these key ridings. And then other ones,
05:39:21.140like we were just talking about Carleton in Ottawa, Pierre Polyev's riding where he won with 51%
05:39:26.420of the vote in 2021. Our polls are still showing him trailing in that riding. Mark, I want to bring
05:39:33.060you in on this. First of all, thank you so much for joining our broadcast. I don't think we've had
05:39:37.780you on before but it's great uh to see you and have you how are you feeling i think you're out
05:39:42.580in british columbia so tell us what the mood is like out there yeah so you know i was actually
05:39:48.340on another show um so first of all thank you so much for having me it's a pleasure and um and
05:39:54.340juna news i'm all you guys are great so this is fantastic um in bc i mean at the beginning people
05:40:01.060were biting their nails people were frustrated they were worried um but you know i was telling
05:40:07.780people i said you know to get um when we started off with those 10 seats i mean that was that you
05:40:14.420know this is this is not a bad as doom and gloom i mean the worst would be a majority government for
05:40:22.020the liberals let's be honest this is this is um and so block 23 that's right there ndp with with
05:40:29.780nine i'm surprised so one of the things that you know is going to allow me to sleep at night is
05:40:36.340knowing that jagmeet singh is finished this is an exciting time for canada like we're sick of jagmeet
05:40:43.540singh and you know what's funny is on my social media channels i've been publishing jagmeet singh
05:40:49.220on he does his um you know cpac's got uh 240 000 subscribers and five hours after his campaign
05:40:57.700videos published there's 400 views and seven likes and you just know that you know it's unbelievable
05:41:04.420he's kind of almost feel sorry for him well not really because he not only did he destroy his party
05:41:11.620um but a lot of the votes that um you know the balance of power like you know the ndp had was
05:41:18.260all about fighting for the workers and you know i did some uh spaces on x and i had some ndp
05:41:24.740people come onto my onto the discussion and they said they've always voted ndp their entire life
05:41:31.620and they've they this election they voted conservative and i said how could you go from
05:41:38.100ndp to conservative actually a lot of people across the country went all the way to ndp and
05:41:43.780it's because the conservatives represents the people the workers it's a big shift in politics
05:41:51.060and people they always when i speak to people i say you need to stop looking at the left or right
05:41:57.620or center it's like what does the party represent for you today it the stuff in the past when they
05:42:03.220talk about harper i said harper that's like a decade ago the party's evolved each party evolves
05:42:08.740into something and the liberal party has evolved into something that's unrecognizable from the past
05:42:14.740if they used to be center i don't even know what they are anymore they the policies that they do
05:42:21.060um are destructive you know this green uh you know agenda that they've tried to push
05:42:27.620onto us it didn't mark carney said that the carbon tax only reduced carbon emissions by
05:42:34.340six percent or something ridiculous and and you know a month before the election they decided
05:42:40.660to remove the carbon tax so that they could get votes but think about the 40 increase in inflation
05:42:48.740on everything a pack three stakes before the pandemic was 20 try to get three stakes today
05:42:56.580it's like 80 to 100 meat is unaffordable and it's only becoming more and more expensive with these
05:43:03.460liberals because the only thing they know how to do is open up those printing presses they just
05:43:08.980print money they don't understand that you have to create more goods and services whatever money
05:43:13.700buys in order to be prosperous you can't just print money and expect prices not to go up and
05:43:21.060so when they said they were going to do uh an additional quarter of a trillion dollars over
05:43:26.420four years and i went onto their website and looked at i read their platform in and out not once
05:43:33.460did a pipeline in all that money there's no mention of pipeline can you believe that that
05:43:39.780is incredible because think about it we don't have manufacturing in canada we did these evs
05:43:45.620all a waste of money we don't create anything what we have is an abundance of energy we need
05:43:52.260to sell our energy to the world that's what made canada prosperous in the first place if we want
05:43:57.460hospitals that doesn't have 18 hour wait lines which we have in bc they have rolling blackouts
05:44:03.700on hospitals what happens when delta hospital closes then they all flood to another hospital
05:44:09.540and all the lineups explode to like 18 to 24 hours just see so you know what bc health said
05:44:15.620they said this is our advice to you british columbia don't get sick are you kidding me
05:44:22.660that's that's their advice and the thing that people don't understand is even if you throw
05:44:29.860a bag of money tons of money at this you're not creating it's not getting better because you're
05:44:36.180not we're not selling stuff to the world we're not creating so we need to be stronger and that's
05:44:42.580why the conservatives they had that they actually had a plan to make our country prosperous again
05:44:49.780like build our energy build our pipelines do that corridor they were offering a solution to
05:44:55.620you know 10 years of financial um so on so right now um with 146 and 164 it's it might actually be
05:45:05.700better better numbers because if you look at um you know when i first came on here
05:45:10.980jeremy nixon in calgary confederation is now leading and calgary calgary center is also
05:45:19.900gone blue so calgary's all blue wow and that is uh shocking one writing that i i'll point out uh
05:45:29.720is calgary or not calgary uh carlton here's writing uh the leader of the conservative
05:45:35.360party is currently trailing in his writing uh they said that it was all hooey that he was
05:45:40.540not leading in that race and it's i have to say getting tight for him it's not looking good for
05:45:47.320the leader of the conservative party at this moment uh in his own riding i think nationally
05:45:51.540i you know he's he spent his entire campaign campaigning across the country um and i don't
05:45:57.000think that this win from the liberals was so much a liberal victory so much as an ndp collapse
05:46:02.960and in that same vein i don't think it was a loss from pierre uh i don't think pierre polyev ran a
05:46:10.240bad campaign. I don't think he didn't pivot soon enough. I think Jagmeet Singh was such an
05:46:15.740incompetent political operative and decision maker throughout his time in office and during this
05:46:21.340campaign that the collapse that we've witnessed from the NDP was something that Pierre could have
05:46:27.760pivoted 360 degrees and he wouldn't have found a way to solve the incompetent Jagmeet Singh problem.
05:46:34.920Well, I just want to jump in and I'll just say it. Something is not right in Carleton. There is an absolute assault on our democracy happening right now. And Elections Canada is allowing it. They're facilitating it. They're letting them get away with it. There was an absolutely anti-democratic movement. I think it was called Flood the Ballot or some nonsense like that.
05:46:56.560there were dozens, I think hundreds of independent people running in Carleton. I have no idea why
05:47:04.580Elections Canada allows this. It is an absolute mockery of our system. And so the fact that
05:47:10.000Pierre Polyev, who got 51% of the vote in 2021, who has been an incumbent member of parliament
05:47:16.300for almost 20 years, the fact that he is at risk of losing his own seat when he ran a national
05:47:21.680campaign where his party went from 33 percent in 2021 it looks like they're going to finish at 42
05:47:28.960folks 42 so tell me how the popular leader of the conservative party who has run an historically
05:47:37.280excellent campaign and will win more of the popular vote than any other time in the history
05:47:43.760of this party the conservative party of canada how is it that he loses his own seat something
05:47:48.480is not right. I do not trust the numbers coming in. I do not trust Elections Canada to run a fair
05:47:54.000campaign when they are allowing hundreds of names to be on the ballot. It is absolutely outrageous.
05:48:00.900Mark, what do you think? I will make one note on this, that the polls that are being reported
05:48:06.700right now from Carleton, it's 40 out of 266. So it's 20% of polls reporting just under actually.
05:48:14.220so the results could change and in fact they likely will i'm speaking with the conservative
05:48:20.640party war room right now some folks inside of it and they still remain confident that pierre will
05:48:26.000win this they don't think that this will go for the for the liberals i think they think there's
05:48:30.600just some early liberal polls reporting for this so i think that they're still confident in this
05:48:35.980result it's just shocking to see right you know seeing uh the leader in a history as a you said
05:48:42.780historic campaign um these are these are huge numbers uh for pierre across the country in fact
05:48:49.100he almost has the popular vote if you subtract or if you add the ppc vote right now which is sitting
05:48:54.540at about 0.8 percent to the conservative numbers the conservatives would have a plurality popular
05:49:00.540vote right now so it doesn't make sense for him to lose carlton with the math that we're looking at
05:49:05.020it's just it it seems to me that it's the polls that are reporting but i agree with you the fact
05:49:10.220that they allowed targeted manipulation of the ballot in pierre's writing is really really
05:49:16.620suspicious uh and i think that it was anti-democratic i got two things to mention
05:49:24.620who saw pierre pauliev try to put that ballot in the box it almost didn't go through the slot
05:49:32.060like it's unbelievable what they've done there it's ridiculous and then for them to start counting
05:49:38.220the ballot six hours early and we're only at 20 of the the count it's it's unbelievable and there's
05:49:44.780another thing i want to mention about this bruce fanjoy i've never seen this man before i've never
05:49:51.260spoken to him never even posted anything against him i've never i don't even know who this person
05:49:56.700is and uh i went on to just like click and click on his thing he's banned me from blocked me from
05:50:03.260everything i've never talked to him and then i found out i made a post about it on my x account
05:50:09.260saying hey can you check are you blocked by this fan joy and he's basically blocked every
05:50:14.860single conservative on x so you and i it just that doesn't sit well with me if you are going
05:50:22.540to try to become a politician or you are a current politician and you can't have your
05:50:27.900comments section on you do not deserve to work in politics you serve the public you don't serve
05:50:34.220yourself and if you you also need to stand by what you say online and if you can't stand by that and
05:50:40.540you turn things off and that goes for the rest of the liberals i don't see anybody else blocking or
05:50:46.220blocking blocking not even muting blocking that's even further um and i just wanted to add that um
05:50:52.860I don't know what your thoughts are on that, Candice.
05:50:56.800I don't know who you're talking about.
05:52:53.440This is why the liberals have won, because of ridings exactly like Burnaby Central.
05:52:59.340Because the NDP, and Jagmeet Singh specifically, looked at the liberals, took the keys of his car out of his pocket, and handed it to them.
05:53:10.340and said here you go uh here's the country you run it because i am too incompetent to do it myself
05:53:17.300and voters saw that and they agreed they said yes you do not deserve to be in public office
05:53:23.860you were in it for yourself uh you did nothing for us except for waste taxpayers dollars on
05:53:30.900belligerently stupid uh uh government programming that did nothing for anybody didn't sort out any
05:53:39.220problems for anyone that needed it. And his record will be one of failure. So I don't know,
05:53:45.600Candace, do you think he'll be resigning tonight? I hope so. I don't usually celebrate when people
05:53:51.420lose their jobs, but I think there's a special exception for Jagmeet Singh for all he has done
05:53:56.260to Canadians. I mean, we heard him come out last week just basically saying that, yeah,
05:54:00.760I kept propping up the Liberals because I just wanted to block a Conservative government. So I
05:54:05.620think after that. I also don't know who on earth would hire a man like Jagmeet Singh. I don't know
05:54:10.020what his post-politics career will look like. Maybe he will get into the social media influencing
05:54:16.100game. He seems to be always more interested in the clicks and the likes than actually the
05:54:21.380governing of the country. Mark, Jagmeet Singh is a representative out in your neck of the woods
05:54:25.820in British Columbia. So what do you think of this? To be honest with you, he is, I voted Jagmeet
05:54:32.400thing out it was such a glorious feeling to literally be one of the canadians that gets to
05:54:38.860see this guy out he is in i live in burnaby central riding and uh when i was voting it felt
05:54:46.780so good knowing that he would be finished obviously i voted for james yang um he is
05:54:53.520you know i mean i i knew it'd be a tight race and um my writing is has always traditionally
05:55:01.000been left leaning. So to see James actually right up there, it's impressive. I tried to help him
05:55:07.360out on X and he came, you know, one thing that I really liked about the conservative James that
05:55:13.180was in Jagmeet Singh's writing, he came to my door twice. He knocked on every single door in
05:55:19.540the writing twice. I know because I saw him like, wow, man, that's two times he came to my house.
05:55:24.780jagmeet singh did not knock on one door you would think that if he wanted to keep us he knew that
05:55:32.280it would be a battle for his riding if he actually cared he would have knocked on every single door
05:55:38.140but he was too busy traveling across canada with um what's that uh that girl that was on
05:55:46.020only's fan you know actually when you look at the look at his entire campaign the only time that his
05:55:52.720ratings went up was when he was caught with an only's girlfriend other than that his writing
05:55:58.080was a campaign was was terrible it was and you know doesn't that make canadians furious that
05:56:05.500not only did he not call an election in september or rip he after he ripped up the supply and
05:56:12.120confidence agreement and then after that we went all the way to december he could have done it
05:56:16.540again when you know when the when um the budget the whole thing he could have done it so many
05:56:22.480times he might have even been opposition leader but yet he waited until he got his pension
05:56:28.980and canadians see this and that's why the ndp has is non-party status and jagmeet singh is
05:56:36.560retiring from politics tonight thank goodness thank goodness uh no i want to bring you back
05:56:42.760and Noah Jarvis is on the ground at a conservative headquarters in, I believe it's Richmond Hill,
05:56:48.340or is it Aurora? I know the writing is Aurora Oakridge's Richmond Hill. I don't know exactly
05:56:52.280where the writing you're in, but can you give us an update of what's happening there?
05:56:58.000What do we think of this news that Jagmeet Singh has lost his seat?
05:57:04.060Well, to start off with right here, I've just heard a big eruption from the crowd behind me.
05:57:10.400I guess the CBC had just announced that Richmond Hill, Oak Ridge, Aurora had been called for the Conservatives and perhaps Tossus also locked in.
05:57:22.420But it really goes to show that, yes, there is a significant movement looking for change in this country.
05:57:27.960The reason why Pierre Collier brings out the use of thousands and thousands of people, even tens of thousands of people in some cases,
05:57:35.000is that he has a message that is resonating, and it's clearly resonating in the 905.
05:57:39.480by the cbc they showed one graph that's fairly that the conservatives uh vote share
05:57:48.120oops i think we may have lost noah with his reception there i
05:57:54.840mark are you still there can you still hear me i'm here i'm here okay i want to i want to ask
05:57:58.360you about this for years i mean and once you oh you can just go ahead and cut noah's audio there
05:58:05.720i think it was pretty clear that this party would be suffering as a result and
06:19:51.020They're flipping to the conservatives.
06:19:54.300So London, and when I say urban centers, I really mean Vancouver and Toronto, not the sort of smaller ones.
06:20:02.220So London Fanshawe, a writing that the NDPs held in a number of elections, has flipped to the Conservatives.
06:20:07.540Windsor West, a writing that I would never have believed a Conservative could ever win an election in my lifetime, has flipped to the Conservatives.
06:20:16.640We see seats in Ontario's North, like Nickelbelt, which I don't think a Conservative has won since probably the late 1960s.
06:20:23.580flipping to the conservatives. And then you look at BC and you see writings like this on Vancouver
06:20:30.900Island with North Island, Power River, that again, NDP held seat flipping to the conservatives. So
06:20:36.480it certainly seems to me that yes, while the collapse of the NDP is certainly helping the
06:20:40.840liberals in writings like Carleton, it's also hurting them in some of these writings that I
06:20:45.180don't think people gave conservatives much of a chance of winning a week ago.
06:20:49.560And I know I've asked you this, but I just people keep sending it to me. And it's so unbelievable to me that Pierre Polyev appears to be losing his writing. Are we anywhere close from the decision desk to calling that? And oh, look, we've got David Knightleg back. David, welcome back. Just asking our decision desk host here, Matt John, to talk to us a little bit about the Carlton riding, which, you know, despite Pierre Polyev leading a party with, you know, the highest votes in the
06:21:19.540history of the Conservative Party of Canada. It looks like he's trailing his own
06:21:23.380riding, and I don't know if he can come back from it. I don't know if it's an insurmountable
06:21:27.580trailing that he's seeing there. Yeah, he's down by 1,900 votes at the
06:21:34.340moment, which actually has gone up by about 400 votes in the last 15 minutes, so an eight-point
06:21:40.800gap in terms of percentage. There's still only 80 of the 266 polls reporting, so if the advanced
06:21:49.400polls there, which I think were largest in the country at 21,000 votes. If those skewed to the
06:21:56.500Liberal Party, but the election day votes are skewing back to the conservatives, maybe he can
06:22:01.960eat this back and squeak it out. But I will say it's getting very late in the game. And
06:22:06.960if he doesn't start to turn that around in the next few 20 to 30 polls, you might have a very
06:22:18.540Okay, well, David, I'll bring you in on the conversation. So you were here at the
06:22:23.380beginning of the show. A lot of a lot has happened since then. So what do you what
06:22:27.620do you make of the results as we've seen them come in here?
06:22:34.580Oops, I don't think your audio is connecting there, David, I'll give you a
06:22:39.300minute to try to get it going. I don't know if that's you or our tech team
06:22:44.660there. But I'm trying to get some more information about, wow, it just looks like all of Eastern
06:22:51.760Ontario is really gone for the Liberals. It's totally red over here. So yeah, Ottawa, I would
06:22:59.860just jump in quickly on that, Candice. I would say Eastern Ontario, you know, there's a few losses
06:23:04.880there we wouldn't have thought of, but it's the Ottawa region specifically that has really swung
06:23:10.260to the liberals fairly heavily uh i mean take a look at canada as an example 57 the liberals have
06:23:16.560right now um that's that's uh much higher than i think people would have thought um and even in
06:23:23.000ridings where you know we would have uh taken the law would assume the conservatives were going to
06:23:27.860lose you know ottawa west nepean 63 i mean that's a riding john baird held uh up until 2015 right so
06:23:34.500So for some reason, the city of Ottawa has really significantly swung against the Conservative Party and Pierre is falling victim to that at the moment.
06:23:44.960And so just one more time, like what would happen if tomorrow morning we wake up and the Conservatives have a minority government?
06:23:51.980I mean, I don't think that's going to happen, but if the Conservatives have a great showing and then Pierre Paulyov loses his own seat, like can he go on as leader without having his own seat or what would happen there?
06:24:05.300I think it's important to remember that regardless of what happens tonight, Pierre is the leader unless he chooses to not be the leader.
06:24:13.480And so whether he wins his seat or not, you know, he's going to have to make that decision on whether he wants to stay on as leader or not.
06:24:25.500I would suggest if the numbers stay as we're looking below 161, 150, it would be in the best
06:24:30.880interest of the party for the leader to stay on because I suspect in the next couple of months,
06:24:35.560there's going to be quite a lot of uncertainty. And I wouldn't want to add to that uncertainty,
06:24:39.860the question of leadership. However, I can imagine there might be some who might make the point that
06:24:47.060if he can't win his seat, he doesn't have a seat in the house that he should step aside.
06:24:50.920okay let's try to go back to david night leg david uh let's try your audio again can you uh
06:24:57.720test us out here yeah how's that working there you go yeah okay so like i was saying you know
06:25:02.520lots has happened in the last few hours since we had you on so what do you think of all these
06:25:05.880results coming in well you know i'll make the i guess obvious observation which is the conservatives
06:25:11.880with the bloc would form a government right now the liberals with the ndp would not um that's
06:25:19.480interesting uh i'm you know we've got a lot to figure out it's incredibly frustrating the point
06:25:26.740that kian made that we have you know we've kind of it's it's interesting we talked a little bit
06:25:31.640about the self-defeating moves of the conservatives against each other when it came to sort of
06:25:37.560figuring out some of the um actual campaigning issues and uh and i think the other issue that's
06:25:45.220kind of happened here is the PPC killing three to five seats or opportunity at three to five seats.
06:26:00.180So I think what's going ahead. So thanks so much for having me on. I'm Chris Sims. I'm the Alberta
06:26:05.880Director for the Canadian Taxpayers Federation. I'm taking a look at this and I'd like to know
06:26:10.200what you guys think about this. So let's say that these numbers stayed the same tomorrow.
06:26:14.500Okay. So Prime Minister Mark Carney, who's been all about Canadian unity and Team Canada and
06:26:21.300elbows up and all this fun stuff, then has to dance with the separatist party in order to form
06:26:28.260government. How is that going to work? Because one, either one of them, Mark Carney or Pierre
06:26:35.540Polyev is going to have to go to the governor general saying, if these are all the same numbers,
06:26:40.640because they could change hey i don't have enough for a majority but here's the dance partner that
06:26:46.400i have and it's the bloc quebecois i'm curious how long that is going to last in the house of
06:26:52.640commons as a narrative if we were all supposed to be fighting trump teaming up together i'd be
06:26:59.280very curious to see what you guys both think about this i i think it's uh uh important to
06:27:06.720to note that mark carney gets to meet the house uh if these numbers held hold he wouldn't need
06:27:11.940to form a formal coalition he wouldn't even need to go to the governor general and say
06:27:15.660um i uh i have the confidence of the house he is the the prime minister and the tradition would
06:27:21.180dictate that he would get to uh to meet the house um uh and so and how and prove whether the house
06:27:28.060has confidence in uh in him his government or not and my guess is that's probably what he would
06:27:33.320attempt versus trying to cut a deal with the bloc. That being said, you know, with how close
06:27:41.220it is there below, it might be difficult for him to have the confidence of the House. And that's
06:27:47.440where something like Pierre Polyev, keeping a seat or not, really makes a difference, because
06:27:52.420it'd be unlikely that you'd want to take the Liberals down until the Conservatives had figured
06:27:57.740out their own leadership situation. Right. And so you guys are keeping a close eye then.
06:28:02.420And last I checked on Pierre Polyev's writing, let me just refresh my page here.
06:28:08.580That looks like it's still, goodness, that's still about 1,600.
06:28:14.100Now, it has narrowed a bit in the last 10 minutes.
06:28:24.760They have about 33% of the vote in there, taking a look at the Elections Canada website.
06:28:29.420So they have 90 of 266 polls reporting.
06:28:34.700Now, I have some experience in that riding.
06:28:38.580Typically, now I don't know if this happened this year.
06:28:41.660Typically, they bring in the advance vote and then they count the polls that are largely dominated by neighborhoods of government employees.
06:28:50.040So there's kind of a spur of Carlton, of Pierre Polyev's riding, that includes a big neighborhood that is full of townhouse after townhouse of government employees.
06:29:01.960So that was always kind of tough door knocking for him.
06:29:05.540However, yeah, this would be concerning.
06:29:09.040I still think he'll probably pull it off and win his seat.
06:29:11.640But then the question then, I guess, becomes which member of parliament is going to take a knee for their leader?
06:29:19.160will it be somebody in alberta like one of those and one of those mps now i'm getting into
06:29:25.380the speculation game do you want to jump in uh yeah i mean i look the the speculation game we
06:29:35.920could go through uh 149 ridings and see which one might be the most likely to quit but uh i suspect
06:29:42.360uh you're right that he would probably look to somewhere like alberta and uh in a riding that
06:29:47.360the CPC win substantially to see if he can get one of those guys. If you recall, way back in
06:29:55.840the Canadian Alliance days, Stockwell Day won the leadership without a seat. And there was a bit of
06:30:00.700drama about whether he was from Red Deer and the Alliance MP from Red Deer wasn't going to step
06:30:06.980aside for him. And he ultimately ended up running out in British Columbia, which some people might
06:30:10.600remember. I do remember that. All the way through the Harper government. So Jagmeet Singh, for that
06:30:18.260matter, ended up in Burnaby because he didn't have the opportunity to run in a Branton seat,
06:30:23.660and he didn't hold them. So it's not unprecedented for that to happen. It would be somewhat unusual
06:30:30.560for somebody to win 150 seats and not their own seat, but stranger things have happened, I suppose.
06:30:39.200Yeah, Polyev's writing. So I was a talk show host and a producer there right in Ottawa for a long time. So 580 CFRA has got a lot of listeners, or at least it used to before it became eaten by Bell. It used to have a lot of kind of farming. It was the outlying areas of Arnprior, Karp. There were a lot of kind of military families in that area.
06:36:09.200was out on the road meeting with thousands of people and talking with them getting his picture
06:36:15.940with them really building that brand i mean that's why we have t-shirts with his name on it and you
06:36:21.120know ball caps and all that stuff and apparently uh the cat was away and then the mice did play
06:36:26.100and this is apparently the story that this liberal challenger who's i think still in the lead let me
06:36:32.160quickly check election canada is leading holly ev so goodness gracious what a little trick this is
06:36:39.900it's looks like it's about if i'm reading that right 1800 votes difference 1700 votes difference
06:36:47.180right now so the liberals are leading by about 1700 using my really rough math here and
06:36:54.38043 percent of the vote is in that's going to be a squeaker that is going to be a speaker for them
06:37:02.600goodness we might be watching that one till the wee hours of the morning well i know i will be
06:37:09.040um then i think the question then is how much are they able to keep the conservative team together
06:37:15.540while pier poliev is trying to you know hopefully gets his own seat in his view
06:37:20.580But if he doesn't, trying to find a seat, are they able to keep their ship tight enough so that they can challenge Carney again in a speedier election?
06:37:30.360Because if these numbers hold, to me, especially if the bloc is the one that has to vote along with the government each time in the House of Commons, I don't see it lasting as long as the deal with the NDP had lasted.
06:38:40.500So Aaron, Aaron gun, uh, for folks who don't know him, uh, he's a great documentary filmmaker.
06:38:46.300he was the one that did the film that you might have seen clips of called Vancouver is Dying
06:38:51.020and then he did more of a broadband version of it called Canada is Dying and that's where he
06:38:57.180was focusing on crime in the streets and in particular what was happening to the folks
06:39:02.140who were suffering in the downtown east side got some news here oh there that well there it is
06:39:11.760We are officially declaring that Aaron Gunn has been elected in North Island Powell River.
06:39:17.380That is a unique riding because it takes up the north of Vancouver Island and then Powell River
06:39:22.540is actually across the strait and it's on the mainland of British Columbia. You have to take
06:39:27.640a ferry to get over there. It's a neat mix. I grew up in that riding. I often refer to it,
06:39:33.580it's a neat mix of hippies and loggers. So you're either cutting down the trees or you're hugging
06:39:38.860the trees but most of the folks all smoke weed so yeah uh just to cut in with some more news it
06:39:44.540looks like jagmeet singh has resigned as a leader of the ndp that does not seem all that surprising
06:39:50.860knowing that he's lost his seat apparently he is speaking and we are just gathering the
06:39:56.060connections and or the tape if i can use an old term you guys both look like you remember what
06:40:01.420that term means um and we will roll that tape as soon as we have it ready um so that's interesting
06:40:07.260I was always expecting Jagmeet Singh to finally do something in the House of Commons after, of course, he qualified for his pension.
06:40:15.960So we will have to be able to calculate.
06:40:17.980I'm sure that Franco Teresano, my colleague, has already calculated Jagmeet Singh's pension as he goes off.
06:40:23.880To that point, I just need to marvel at this a little bit more.
06:40:27.680Because when I first started on Parliament Hill, I was a cub reporter for CFRA.
06:40:32.300That was back when the Canadian Alliance was there.
06:40:34.340And we were always taught that the NDP had to do really, really, really well for the Conservatives or the Canadian Alliance to do really well.
06:40:44.020And to see the Conservatives over, let me refresh it again, over 41% of the vote, basically on their own, because the NDP has collapsed.
06:40:55.080They're 5.9% of the popular vote right now.
06:40:58.380like most of the time the conservatives are thinking that the NDP needs to soak up about
06:41:05.26015%. So to have the NDP crater down to 5.9% and seeing the conservatives at over 41.7,
06:41:13.040I'd be curious at both of your opinions. Have we now become kind of a two-party situation,
06:41:18.840or do you eventually see somebody coming up the middle for the NDP again? Maybe someone,
06:41:23.400you know wab canoe speaks french yeah i found that out i found that out a few weeks ago and i went
06:41:32.000well that certainly changes the game now doesn't it so yeah wab canoe uh premier of manitoba
06:41:37.460speaks french so i'd be really curious to see uh if this is the end for the ndp and this now
06:41:44.560becomes more of a two-party system or if the ndp is able to uh resuscitate itself they've got more
06:41:51.520seats than i expected i thought they were going to get four seats but they've got seven so
06:41:55.040okay we are just waiting to hear from jagmeet singh apparently our team is busy getting
06:42:02.460the speech ready to go here and he has just resigned so let me take a look here
06:42:12.680i'm just trying to refresh and update folks on pierre pauliev's writing
06:42:17.260yeah that is really stubborn gap there seems to have gone back closer to 2000 last i checked
06:42:25.880yeah so right now the liberal uh contender bruce fanjoy has 16 256 votes and pierre paulia of the
06:42:37.720incumbent conservative has 14 144 votes and i will just check to see how many polls we have in there
06:42:46.860Still less than half the polls returning
06:56:07.340And that's why we have to learn the lessons of tonight so that we can have an even better result
06:56:11.540the next time the Canadians decide the future for the country.
06:56:15.760Canadians, Canadians have opted for a razor thin minority government, a virtual tie in the vote
06:56:36.000count. So I would like to congratulate Prime Minister Carney on leading this minority government.
06:56:42.240No, no. We'll have plenty of opportunity to debate and disagree. But tonight we come together as Canadians. We will do our job. Yes, we will do our job to hold the government to account. But first, we congratulate people from all political backgrounds on participating in the democratic process.
06:57:06.200And as I said, while we will do our constitutional duty of holding government to account and proposing better alternatives,
06:57:14.120we will always put Canada first as we stare down tariffs and other irresponsible threats from President Trump.
06:57:21.340Conservatives will work with the Prime Minister and all parties with the common goal of defending Canada's interests
06:57:27.440and getting a new trade deal that puts these tariffs behind us while protecting our sovereignty and the Canadian people.
06:57:36.200I want to thank my Conservative team, my caucus, my members of the Conservative staff and others
06:57:48.680who've helped reshape the entire political landscape in this country.
06:57:53.860Conservatives have achieved major breakthroughs tonight.
06:57:56.500We brought in record support from blue-collar and unionized workers, youth, new Canadians.
06:58:02.980we gave voices to countless people across this country who've been left out and left behind for
06:58:10.420far too long we won the big debates of our time on the carbon tax on inflation on housing on the
06:58:16.900drug prices on crime conservatives have been leading the debate and we will continue to put
06:58:22.940forward the best arguments to improve the lives of our people right across this country but we
06:58:28.000will not stop there. Every single day, our conservative caucus and I will be holding
06:58:33.380the government to account on behalf of the millions of Canadians who believed in the message
06:59:08.480Everywhere I went, hardworking people took precious time out of their day to tell me about their struggles, their pain, their fears, but also their hopes and dreams.
06:59:20.200welders and waitresses, farmers and factory workers,
06:59:24.120seniors, small business owners and single mothers,
06:59:28.400young Canadians and young families pleading for the chance to own a home,
06:59:33.140parents who worried that their kids would never be able to move out of their home,
06:59:37.400grandparents who saw their grandchildren suffering from the shortfalls of our economy,
06:59:43.540and countless others who are afraid to go outside because of the rising wave of crime.
06:59:49.280All of these stories touched my heart and gave me inspiration to work towards something better.
06:59:57.540These people continue to need voices, and I will continue to fight for them every day and every day.
07:00:04.620We will never give up on fighting for the Canadian people.
07:04:54.840Like, this is a really weird election.
07:04:57.340Like, this is a really weird election.
07:04:59.900I'm just looking at Elections Canada right now.
07:05:02.820As of right now, the Conservatives have 41.7% of the vote.
07:05:07.560As I was saying, to give people perspective,
07:05:09.920prime minister stephen harper won his strong stable majority government with i think 39.6
07:05:16.980percent of the vote so like polyev's right in that he's got like a huge popular vote for a
07:05:23.440conservative party and a conservative leader but the strangest thing is happening back home
07:05:28.240so while he was busy crossing you know canada and going to those rallies and meeting with the people
07:05:35.000that he was just talking about there and I know he's been meeting with them which is why he's got
07:05:41.880people like the Boilermakers Union supporting him and the Pipe Workers Union supporting him
07:05:48.280and just full disclosure I've known Polyev for quite a while like a long time we were staffers
07:05:55.720at the same time we're the same generation we basically hit Parliament Hill at the same time
07:06:00.740And so I've worked quite closely with him.
07:06:02.960I used to book him on my show all the time when I had a radio show and a TV show there in Ottawa.
07:06:09.980If he loses his seat, this is going to be hard on him because he was always he was a really young member of parliament when he won that riding first.
07:06:20.000He took it away from a sitting cabinet minister.
07:06:24.220So he was a big upstart upset kind of guy back then.
07:06:27.140That was long before he became a husband and a dad.
07:06:30.820And I would say this of anybody, no matter what the party is, we grow.
07:06:35.300We grow as we grow up and we, you know, find somebody to marry and have kids.
07:06:40.380And so if he does lose that seat, that will be difficult for him.
07:06:45.240But him coming right out of the gate and saying, I will remain on and I will continue.
07:17:25.400And one of the things that I've noticed, and it's just becoming a pet peeve, but you said
07:17:29.360that tucker carlson sort of mindlessly making comments on uninformed i'm seeing a lot of big
07:17:34.280conservative american accounts kind of coming down on pierre and repeating this nonsense narrative
07:17:40.060that he blew a 20-point lead i mean yes that on like a very shallow superficial understanding of
07:17:46.720politics sure but it became a totally different race when mark when pierre justin trudeau stepped
07:17:52.220down and mark carney stepped in and if you're looking again just to go back to the popular vote
07:17:58.640But I mean, Pierre got 41 or 42 percent. Like that's that's a win. That's a victory. That's a majority government under different circumstances. So to sort of like ignore all that context and pretend that he just blew a 20 point lead is just such a surface level misunderstanding.
07:18:14.340and I just I don't have time for these big American accounts who are out there I don't know
07:18:19.180what they're trying to do like rage farm against Canadian conservatives like hey guys um we were
07:18:25.200doing just fine up here right until you guys started interfering in our election narrative
07:18:29.460and it was President Trump um that put the dagger in our back and I think it's unforgivable what he
07:18:34.780has done as well to Canadian conservatives so I'm a little frustrated by uh people who don't really
07:18:42.300know very much about Canadian politics pretending that somehow, you know, they're going to own
07:18:46.460Pierre Polyev by pointing out something really stupid that isn't true at all. Chris, what do
07:18:51.960you think? Well, they loved him. They loved him. You know, I got more comments from people watching
07:18:57.980him munch the apple and talk to the reporter. I mean, that played in the States. He's had a couple
07:19:03.240of these that have really played broadly in the U.S. They really liked him. I think what's happened
07:19:08.060there, Candace, is the conservative movement in the states has its own Achilles heel.
07:19:13.180And one of those things has been that the populism under Donald Trump has taken over.
07:19:18.180And there's a little bit of a witch hunt for anybody that's a Republican in name only.
07:19:21.560And you can see this in very unusual situations like Thomas Massey.
07:40:22.420And then again, tonight, it's like, why is he declaring this at this moment?
07:40:27.900A couple of other things that didn't sit well with me.
07:40:31.380He was congratulating his colleague in Carleton.
07:40:36.120The writing hasn't been called yet, but he was sort of jokingly congratulating him,
07:40:41.940saying that he had, I guess, you know, taking a jab at Pierpaglia of saying,
07:40:46.240can't wait to work with you, Bruce Fan Choi. It does look like Bruce will win and that Pierre
07:40:50.660Polly will lose a seat, but it seemed totally classless from my perspective for Mark Carney
07:40:56.380to be making that point. And, you know, even just hearing him talk about taking the higher road and
07:41:03.160choosing hope and not division, you know, from a person who ran what I thought was a fairly nasty
07:41:11.420campaign just in terms of personal attacks, totally mischaracterizing what Pierre Polyev
07:41:16.700believes, what his platform was, what he planned to do. You know, you have this opportunity
07:41:24.200after an election to really try to unite Canadians. And I just saw something very
07:41:30.100kind of petty and partisan from that speech. David, what were your thoughts?
07:41:36.240well it's um there are aspects of this speech that i think rang the right bells the problem
07:41:46.480with mark carney is that i'm never entirely convinced that that's an authentic thing and
07:41:52.960not simply a pr man um that he knows that those are the right bells to ring and and the reason
07:41:59.200for that that may sound a little bit petty but the reason for that is because he has these moments
07:42:04.320you you've referred to one of them but you know throughout the campaign at multiple points he
07:42:10.080backed away from things that he had said as concessions and i think he's sort of i think
07:42:15.200he's very pragmatic i think he's technocratic i think he knows that he had to do what it took to
07:42:19.920win and he's done that and he's won um but i think that there are some real gaps right now in the
07:42:26.880country and unfortunately i didn't see the seriousness that i thought you know there's
07:42:31.600sort of this kind of smirky had to go to alberta saskatchewan boy it's tough there were liberals you
07:42:37.920know there's a little bit of that which i think wants to kind of treat uh like the op-ed that
07:42:44.160press and manning wrote you know um the reaction to that by people like carney is sort of an eye
07:42:50.320roll and i i don't think they they are nearly co i just don't think they're coherent on the scale
07:42:57.520of how the east is entirely supported by the enterprising west period and i think that that
07:43:05.280gap in the east and the under you know i've talked to friends in quebec they have no idea
07:43:10.400that alberta funds quebec makes quebec plausible right they have no idea that that ontario people
07:43:16.400in ontario have no idea that they're poorer than arkansas now they don't know that right they're
07:43:20.720they're unaware of it or they're sort of left with the sense that it's okay or that there's
07:43:25.280some sort of gaming of per capita gdp or something the the idea that the country is systemically
07:43:30.800poorer more crime-ridden suffering from depression and suffering from drug use
07:43:36.640like the the sort of the decline of the nation over the last 10 years is so significant and so
07:43:41.520serious then the the the you know the bright point of a carny takeover of this party is if he is a
07:43:49.520serious person and he does intend to get industry built and he does intend to make us a conventional
07:43:55.280and clean energy superpower and he will be humble um in other words if everything that he said is
07:44:01.360true and it's not simply a pr move then there's hope because this is what the country needs
07:44:07.440if it turns out not to be true then i think that uh the conversations i've been having
07:44:13.280when we talked about this a little bit earlier are that people have had it now and i and i don't
07:44:18.320think that when i when i see some of the jokey stuff i don't think that the the seriousness with
07:44:24.400which people see the decline of their cities and their purchasing power and their dollar
07:44:31.040and what they get paid and the decline of the public services that they pay
07:44:35.680an enormous uh record-breaking tax load to support and get treated very poorly by
07:44:41.920is being taken seriously enough and so i um i hope the best for mr carney i think
07:44:48.960you know um it took my son this anglican church and he wondered why we really had to pray for
07:44:54.400Prime Minister Carney. I said, because that's what we believe. We believe that that's an
07:45:01.100essential part of what it means to be, you know, Christian and sort of have this idea that we want
07:45:07.680him to lead with wisdom and grace. But for that to be taken seriously by large parts of the country,
07:45:15.200it's got to be accompanied by some serious action. I think he's going to have to act very quickly to
07:45:20.540just say we're expediting the northern gateway pipeline and we're going to take the kxl pipeline
07:45:26.060concept to president trump and get that signed off and get that built i think if he does those
07:45:30.840two things you'd have a reprieve from the current sentiment that's in the air in alberta if he goes
07:45:36.220in the direction of industrial taxes and finding a way for that to shadow box the energy industry
07:45:41.700in alberta which is what people here really fear then that energy tax sort of loophole that he's
07:45:47.880using to go back after the fossil fuel sort of bogeyman that they are always concerned about
07:45:54.340as climate alarmists will become a breaking point, I think, for the country. And I don't sense from
07:46:01.260his response right now that he's kind of stepped right into that. There's something still kind of
07:46:07.020performative about the way that he speaks that doesn't leave him with conviction. I hope that
07:46:12.120doesn't sound petty, but that's my immediate reaction as I sort of hear it. I know it was
07:46:17.020perfectly articulated chris did you want to jump in on that yeah to your point and you make a very
07:46:21.740good one there i think partly why he sounds performative is that it is performative um he's
07:46:27.660kind of back in the game so to speak i personally when i saw his video with mike myers and they were
07:46:33.420talking about like references from about 40 years ago and really nothing new um that really spoke
07:46:39.980volumes to me. And to your point exactly, I sense a really big disconnect between himself and
07:46:48.840average working people. So people are so strapped right now. We're getting emails every single day
07:46:55.500at the Taxpayers Federation, somebody saying something along the lines of, I've worked my
07:46:59.920entire life, I'm holding down a job, but I just can't afford rent. Like I can't afford food.
07:47:06.240There was a really interesting moment during the campaign just a couple of days ago, where Pierre Polyev was in the Lower Mainland, and he's doing a rally. I think he was in Delta. And a gentleman who looked like he was in his, you know, late 30s, yelled out, I'm working three jobs, and my rent is $5,000 a month.
07:47:26.680which is true like that is standard for a detached house in vancouver now the house this gentleman
07:47:35.020was renting was four bedrooms it was built in the 1960s not updated that is standard anybody can go
07:47:41.460look it up online and i think that there's a big disconnect between how some how hard somebody will
07:47:47.520need to work to afford five thousand dollars a month for a basic house and mr carney or dr carney
07:47:55.020I should call him because he has his PhD from Oxford. When he was at the Bank of England,
07:48:01.380for example, his wage was about $800,000 Canadian. And his housing allowance on top of that
07:48:09.100was close to half a million dollars. Like, there is a disconnect here. And exactly to your point
07:48:17.320on energy, I'm very alarmed by Mr. Carney or Prime Minister Carney's statement that he wants
07:48:24.260to be an energy superpower, but he won't say what kind of energy. Because he states directly in his
07:48:30.600book repeatedly, values, which I read, 80% of oil and gas must remain in the ground. 80. That's how
07:48:37.900he feels. He also stated that, he quoted, that 90% of our energy needs around the world can be met
07:48:45.440through wind and solar. So if this is something that he believes, I just don't see how that lines
07:48:50.680up with the interests of places like Alberta and Saskatchewan. And also to your point, there's so
07:48:57.200many areas of Eastern Canada that just don't understand that it's Alberta's oil and gas
07:49:03.140industry and our workaholism out here that is funding things like their healthcare system in
07:49:09.940Nova Scotia, to give you an idea. So I heard a lot from Carney tonight, but again, it doesn't
07:49:16.260sound like it's actually like it doesn't feel like the chain is actually hitting the gears here
07:49:21.360but we'll have to wait and see if he's actually going to offer an olive branch to Alberta because
07:49:25.840um I'm already getting text messages from people saying how upset they are um I need to stress
07:49:31.960though how odd this feels tonight to take a look again at the popular vote if I may I think that
07:49:39.260the Conservatives are still at 41.7% of the popular vote, which is a huge high watermark
07:49:47.060for the Conservatives. Again, Prime Minister Stephen Harper had just over 39% support when
07:49:53.880he won his majority. And here, Pierre Polyev has got close to 42%. So, and they've flipped a lot
07:50:00.900of seats blue, including apparently a big one in Windsor. I didn't get a chance to see what the
07:50:05.280actual name of it was but I just got a text text message from a supporter saying I can't believe
07:50:10.580that my riding went blue so a lot of hard-fought places have turned blue except this really strange
07:50:17.840situation with Pierre Polyev while he was out campaigning and meeting people for the past
07:50:23.240two and a half years back home there was a brush fire starting with Bruce Fanjoy and I guess nobody
07:50:31.140smelled the smoke in time, because it looks like Pierre Polyev is actually going to lose his riding
07:50:36.400of Carlton. To be fair, it is a very tight race. Back in 2015, it was a really tight race too.
07:50:42.820I think Pierre Polyev won it by about 1,200 votes then. Right now, there's about 2,000 votes,
07:50:49.060a little less than 2,000 votes separating them, and the Liberal is in the lead. So in this situation,
07:50:54.840Candace, I'd like to know what you think about this. In this situation then, if he's able to
07:50:59.760consolidate his support from his caucus, which I think he'll be able to do. He's quite well liked
07:51:05.440by the people in his caucus. I think he's got a lot of loyalty there. Where do you see him trying
07:51:10.260to go to get a by-election going? A lot of folks are saying to come out to Alberta. I mean, his
07:51:16.200mom is here. His brother lives here. They're all in Calgary. He grew up there. Do you see him trying
07:51:21.160that angle? It's an interesting question. I hadn't ever considered it because I didn't think it was
07:51:26.360possibility that he would lose his his writing and you know for for folks who don't know ottawa
07:51:31.640very well you know i i had this misperception when i first came to be a political staffer i
07:51:36.440worked in the harper government briefly and i you know you just kind of assume that everyone
07:51:40.920in ontario is kind of a liberal um and and then when you get out here it's actually like wow
07:51:45.720ontario parts of ontario are super conservative and some of my ontario conservative friends are
07:51:50.360like just as conservative or even more right-wing than the albertans um sorry to say that but it's
07:51:55.400true oh it was true and uh and and for a riding like carlton you know it's feel it's full full
07:52:02.760of farmers it's full of uh beef farmers and other kinds of farmers so it's quite a rural riding
07:52:07.960and so it is quite surprising uh to see the results here i suppose maybe it's becoming more
07:52:14.280more suburban or maybe i mean surely you know the ottawa area is filled with government bureaucrats
07:52:20.440and they seem to be the liberals biggest constituency. So yeah, I don't, I don't know.
07:52:25.860I can't say that I know Pierre Polyev very well. Chris, you seem to know him quite a bit better
07:52:33.320than I do, or, you know, you've worked with him through the years. So I don't, I don't know where
07:52:36.900his family lives or where, where his sort of second option was. I would assume that he would
07:52:40.740look for a seat in and around Ontario close to home. So he doesn't have to travel so much with
07:52:45.720this young family there. But yeah, it's certainly an interesting scenario where we have a party
07:52:52.760leader who is, I think the conservative base, the conservatives that I talked to on the ground,
07:52:58.520there doesn't seem to be much of an appetite to replace the leader. The only people calling for
07:53:02.200that seem to be people who are from either the Liberal Party or the PPC party, but I'm not hearing
07:53:08.200it or seeing it from a lot of conservatives. So yeah, I guess that will be the challenge for Pierre
07:53:14.440going forward because it does look like he is losing his seat and I mean I talked about this
07:53:20.980earlier on the broadcast but it seems to me that this is going to be a very unstable government I
07:53:25.180mean you see the numbers at the bottom of the screen they have ticked up for the liberals so
07:53:28.940172 is what they need for a majority so if things go the way that they are looking it looks like
07:53:37.200they could team up with the NDP and that would be enough to pass a budget and to create a government
07:53:43.340of course the ndp doesn't have a leader right now so that'll be interesting as well um david
07:53:49.340do you have any final thoughts we'll wrap up the live stream in a few minutes here it's uh
07:53:53.020getting uh close to 2 a.m and um my kids waking up early my children are usually up
07:53:58.060before the crack of dawn so um you know i think we're all gonna need coffee and maybe something
07:54:03.820stronger on the weekend to process this it's too early to it's too early to really i think process
07:54:10.780uh everything i think that the um you know it's time to step back i i think the numbers actually
07:54:21.140show that there's a strong uh conservative cohort in the country um and i am still amazed i want to
07:54:30.660look into those voter turnout numbers there's something in that that i just can't believe how
07:54:34.460can you have 60 of the country only turn out in an election like this i'm very surprised by that
07:54:39.400but understanding the affordability stuff and how just broke people were.
07:54:43.640And yeah, I'm shocked by that low burden.
07:54:56.540I think it's going to be a chance for us and, you know, there's, there's,
07:55:00.520you don't want to kind of make this, uh, whatever the language is,
07:55:03.880just sort of try and see it as a glass half full.
07:55:05.740but i do think that mark carney has an extraordinarily hard job in front of him
07:55:10.700right now this lost decade comes with an unbelievable debt crisis an unbelievable
07:55:17.180productivity crisis an unbelievable crime crisis an immigration crisis a housing crisis i mean the
07:55:24.300trump crisis that they've used is sort of the pinata that they can keep hitting hoping that
07:55:29.500it will influence the boomers to vote for them worked but at the end of the day that's going to
07:55:34.140go away quickly because it's ephemeral and what we're going to be left with is all the things that
07:55:40.060we caused or that the liberal party created as problems for the country and now they have to
07:55:45.100hold that bag and so i do think that there's an opportunity um you know probably in the next 24
07:55:51.580months to get our act together hopefully to get more consolidation of the conservative vote and
07:55:57.260And to come up with a game plan and also a narrative that's so attractive that in the next election, we win by a huge landslide and are able to actually invoke really serious change.
07:56:10.000It might have been a very, very hard situation to come in and be the minority conservative government desperately kind of hanging on to a party, you know, whatever the alternative party would have been where you just wouldn't have been able to have any purchase politically.
07:56:24.200And that would have been deeply disappointing and would probably fracture the conservative movement even more.
07:56:29.100I think we have a chance to create unity, figure out our game plan and come back stronger, hopefully within 24 months.
07:56:35.780Well, it's a very optimistic note to end it on.
07:56:39.060So I think we'll wrap it up here, folks.
07:56:40.960We've been going live for some seven hours.
07:56:42.680Started out with you, Chris Sims, and finished up on the back end with you as well.