00:04:58.300Yeah, I suspect that they will work at a mechanism around the Chinese concerns.
00:05:06.880The Chinese want very much to have that summit with President Trump and Secretary General Xi in the coming weeks.
00:05:16.040And so I think that they will do their best to not sidetrack that.
00:05:20.800But the fact of the matter is, I don't see a shooting war with Chinese tankers or merchant ships.
00:05:30.940I do see them potentially being stopped.
00:05:33.260Now, there were reports earlier during the conflict that the Chinese had sent two ships with precursor elements for Iran's missile program.
00:05:47.020And I suspect those won't get through the blockade.
00:05:50.800Now, short of occupying that island, the Targ Island, I think it's called, and I think a blockade could be very effective in terms of putting pressure on Iran, certainly economic pressure, but it also puts pressure on European countries that also rely on oil coming through the strait.
00:06:11.120they have thus far played a minimal role.
00:06:14.880In fact, I believe UK Prime Minister Starmer
00:06:18.760has condemned the idea of a blockade altogether.
00:07:38.740And if the Americans shut down exports to Iran, there could be food shortages.
00:07:45.860Within 13 to 14 days, their oil storage facilities will be filled.
00:07:51.020They'll have to shut down production of their oil industry.
00:07:55.560And it's going to leave them in a pretty pickle.
00:07:58.440Like I said, $13 billion out of the economy a month.
00:08:03.020And I think you'll see that it'll have quite a downward pressure on their reel, which is their financial system.
00:08:11.940Yeah, I mean, there was a lot of talk that boots on the ground would be a possibility if, for instance, Trump were to order some kind of occupation of those critical islands in the strait that, you know, are so critical to oil passing through that area.
00:08:32.100And I'd like to ask you from a military standpoint, the use of the same strategy as the one used
00:08:39.860against Venezuelan drug boats, you know, the fast boats, does that make sense?
00:08:45.420You know, in a similar type, well, you have a different thing here.
00:08:50.300You have the boats, the drug boats, right?
00:08:52.140That were trying to transport their product to the United States.
00:08:57.760And in this case, you have boats that are deliberately potentially trying to sabotage
00:09:04.840Do you think it's a strategy that's sort of transferable to Iran in this case?0.62
00:09:11.880Well, I think that the United States would do quite a number on Iranian fast attack craft.
00:09:18.140They've probably got about 60% of their fleet left of fast attack craft, which is largely
00:09:23.480in the hands of the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
00:09:27.120Um, but I mean, their, their range is limited.
00:09:31.460Uh, they're going to be under constant surveillance.
00:09:33.940They're going to be subject, I'm sure to, uh, to attack by, uh, US, uh, A-10s and other
00:09:41.460aircraft that'll be in a position to strike them and, and, uh, potentially drones.0.97
00:09:47.180Uh, so the Iranians tend to use asymmetric strategies to confront their opponents.0.98
00:09:52.920So missile forces, drones, naval mines, and these fast attack craft, they should be underestimated.0.97
00:10:02.980The Iranians practice swarm attacks using these craft, but they're not going to stand up very well to air power, hammering them into the water.1.00
00:10:17.660and I mean I know it's hard to speculate how much longer this is going to go I mean I think0.99
00:10:26.180Iran's chief weapon here really is the hope that it'll drive up gas prices and the continuation0.73
00:10:34.220of the war will eventually lead to growing opposition to it in the United States and of0.96
00:10:40.800course with the midterms now closing in still a ways off but it's coming I mean all of those
00:10:47.640factors, at least from Iran's perspective, could force the United States' hand or Trump's hand
00:10:53.820as we get closer to, say, summer. That's really what they're counting on, isn't it? I think
00:11:02.120Iran is playing kind of a rag-the-puck game, isn't it? If they can just hold out long enough,1.00
00:11:10.800you know they could push this late enough in the election agenda cycle to for the United States
00:11:19.580for for Trump to just withdraw and give up is that what they're hoping for here absolutely
00:11:24.860they're hoping that Trump tires of the war and Trump single signaled that he was tired
00:11:29.460of the war and wanted a way out which led to the ceasefire negotiations which then collapsed0.73
00:11:36.300Now he's come back with this naval blockade, but the Iranians are playing for time.0.95
00:11:43.380Every chance they get now, they'll be moving their missiles around, they'll be repositioning their drones,0.96
00:11:49.880they'll be digging out launchers and missile bases that were heavily hit by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
00:11:56.700They're already seen to be creating barricades around some of their main nuclear sites, including Ishvahan's site, where they are believed to have a lot of their enriched uranium underground.
00:12:12.080So they're using the time to wear down the United States, to wear down the world in terms of oil and gas prices and aviation fuel.
00:12:22.920And they're using the time to their military advantage.0.64
00:12:28.920I'm wondering if a blockade, at least in the minds of the American public, which has no appetite for yet another forever war, might play better.
00:12:40.260A blockade might play better in the American public than, say, a shooting war, bombings and all that sort of thing.
00:12:48.480Is it possible that Trump is bargaining on the possibility, counting on the possibility that there'd be a little bit more of an appetite for a blockade than there would be, say, in just more bombing?
00:13:02.720Yeah, I don't think there's any doubt that this is why they've resorted to a naval blockade.
00:13:07.640But keep in mind that the naval blockade also puts enormous pressure on the coffers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. They're about 40% of the GDP of Iran, and they get a lot of their money from the oil revenues.
00:13:26.060So this really puts a crimp in their social life in terms of their proxy militias and their friends around the Middle East.0.78
00:13:33.720And so I'm sure that this is much preferable with the midterms coming from a political point of view at home.0.78
00:13:41.500But it has a real impact on the Iranians.0.63
00:13:44.360And I think that if there's a danger of the ceasefire coming apart, it's going to be when we see the Iranians try and break that naval blockade or attack a U.S. vessel, and then all bets are off.
00:14:03.560Much has been made by Prime Minister Carney, but Canada's growing role internationally.
00:14:09.940I personally don't see that role having changed all that much.
00:14:14.940I see us playing kind of a bit player type of part.
00:14:19.640But, you know, in a case like this, we've heard Precious Little from Canada in terms of our position on the blockade.
00:14:29.060We've heard the UK, for instance, be dead set against it.
00:14:33.420But, I mean, if Mark Carney wants to play a role on the global stage and wants Canada to punch above its weight in terms of being a global player, shouldn't he be actively speaking out on this blockade one way or another?
00:14:51.440I would suspect that the prime minister will be forced to do that at some point today, probably in support of his allies, Britain and France.
00:15:02.300And Britain and France are trying to put together 40 countries or so to open up the straits and open up the Persian Gulf.
00:15:12.660And I would suspect that they'll put pressure on Canada to join that effort.
00:15:18.060That also keeps Canada out of any U.S.-led coalition effort, which would seemingly be the interest of the Kearney government.
00:15:28.120I mean, in real terms, we can send some people, we could send some aircraft, or we could send a ship or two, or some helicopters or maritime patrol aircraft, but it takes a while to get them there, and it's going to require a lot of effort and a lot of money.
00:15:46.080It's not clear to me that that effort and money is in place at this point.
00:15:50.680I'm sure that the military, as they always do, have contingency plans.
00:15:55.200But the real issue is how quick can you get people there
00:15:59.140and how quick can you get equipment there?
00:16:01.660And if they're not forward positioned, it takes some time.
00:16:07.420Of course, we're spending more, supposedly we're spending more money.
00:16:28.000I think it's a good start that we're, we're, we're doing that, but keep in
00:16:31.600mind, we're only getting to 2% by massive, uh, uh, uh, uh, kind of big,
00:16:39.000big raises for military personnel, which they certainly deserve.
00:16:43.040But the money went into the personnel, uh, pillar.
00:16:45.960There's been some purchase of equipment, but the fact of the matter is to get to 2%, they had to bring in basically any sort of funding that they can find in 22 government departments that might be related to defense, including taking over the Transport Canada Challenger fleet and the Canadian Coast Guard, neither of which add anything to Canada in terms of military combat power.
00:17:11.660Joe Varner, thank you so much for coming in the show. We really appreciate that.