Juno News - April 13, 2026


NDP pressures Carney to deliver on ＂New World Order＂ vision amid Iran crisis


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18 minutes

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2,528

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128

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Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In his Davos speech last January, Prime Minister Mark Carney said middle powers like Canada could join to rein in the unchecked powers of countries like the United States and China. What do you want the Mark Karni government to do then in terms of what s happening in the Middle East?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 NDP leader Abby Lewis is challenging Prime Minister Carney to put his Davos comments
00:00:10.300 into action to help bring an end to the war in Iran. In his speech to the World Economic Forum
00:00:16.900 last January, Prime Minister Carney said middle powers like Canada could join to rein in the
00:00:23.680 unchecked powers of countries like the United States and China. What do you want the Mark
00:00:28.640 Karni government to do then in terms of what's happening in the Middle East?
00:00:33.680 Yeah, I think Canada's role as a middle power, as the prime minister articulated
00:00:37.700 so enthusiastically at Davos, is to gather other countries that are middle powers and
00:00:43.840 exert a combined pressure on the superpowers to bring this war to an immediate end.
00:00:49.860 After the failure of negotiations with Iran on the weekend, the U.S. imposed a naval blockade
00:00:55.680 of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command stopped all maritime traffic entering and exiting
00:01:02.340 Iranian ports against all nations, no matter the port point of origin. This post by President Trump
00:01:11.680 warning, if any of these ships come anywhere close to our blockade, they will be immediately
00:01:19.880 eliminated using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at sea.
00:01:27.980 It is quick and brutal. Iran has so far refused to end uranium enrichment and funding of terror 0.71
00:01:36.960 groups, including Hamas and the Houthis. Meantime, our Carney's wife, Diana, says her husband's
00:01:44.600 Davos speech is required reading by some university students looking to bring in the new world order.
00:01:51.760 I have been told of university students already being required to read my husband's now quite
00:01:58.960 famous Davos speech, of intergenerational dinner table conversations being sparked by its contents,
00:02:06.180 of new possibilities opening up in its wake of Canada being the nation that is helping to define
00:02:14.920 and shape a new world order. Prime Minister Carney's liberals are on the cusp of gaining
00:02:22.500 a working majority pending the results of three by-elections. A new poll suggests Canadians are
00:02:28.800 growing less concerned with U.S. President Trump than they are with the state of Canada's economy.
00:02:35.920 Nano's research found the Liberals leading the Conservatives by 13 points, with Mark Carney
00:02:41.600 leading as the preferred Prime Minister. But worries about the economy are up five points
00:02:47.980 since last month, while concerns about Trump and America have fallen to fourth place as a national
00:02:54.380 issue. Our guest today is Joe Varner, former Director of Policy to the Minister of Defense
00:03:01.520 and senior fellow with the Macdonald-Laurier Institute.
00:03:04.480 Welcome, Joe.
00:03:05.780 Great to be with you again, Mark.
00:03:08.160 Well, Abby Lewis, the leader of the NDP,
00:03:09.940 wants Prime Minister Carney to put his Davos speech into practice.
00:03:14.260 This speech has gathered a lot of steam.
00:03:17.280 Apparently, according to Carney's wife,
00:03:20.880 it has now required reading at some universities.
00:03:24.580 And so Lewis wants Carney to gather other middle powers
00:03:29.600 to exert pressure on the United States to end the conflict against Iran,
00:03:34.860 including, of course, this action involving a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
00:03:41.300 What do you think of that?
00:03:43.420 Yeah, well, I think it's kind of wishful thinking,
00:03:46.200 and it's a pie-in-the-sky sort of view of the world. 0.97
00:03:52.160 The fact of the matter is the Iranians aren't backing down 0.69
00:03:55.800 on their control of the Strait of Hormuz, 0.99
00:03:58.300 and they've threatened the ports of their neighbors now.
00:04:01.680 The United States is not backing down.
00:04:03.820 They've now moved into an active naval blockade of Iranian ports. 0.95
00:04:10.940 The cost of the Iranians is going to be about $13 billion a month. 0.66
00:04:15.440 So it's an economic method of strangulation
00:04:19.720 that the Trump administration is now putting on the Iranian regime. 0.69
00:04:25.220 And I don't think anyone's going to move away from that. 0.92
00:04:28.300 at this point. 0.90
00:04:30.400 Yeah, I mean, Iran is desperate for money
00:04:33.800 in order to use that money to buy arms.
00:04:38.340 It's been getting some weapons apparently
00:04:40.560 from either Russia or China.
00:04:43.860 I guess my question now is how dangerous is the blockade
00:04:47.700 when you consider that China gets 45% of its oil
00:04:50.840 through that strait?
00:04:53.300 Could this bring the United States
00:04:55.360 into direct conflict with China?
00:04:58.300 Yeah, I suspect that they will work at a mechanism around the Chinese concerns.
00:05:06.880 The Chinese want very much to have that summit with President Trump and Secretary General Xi in the coming weeks.
00:05:16.040 And so I think that they will do their best to not sidetrack that.
00:05:20.800 But the fact of the matter is, I don't see a shooting war with Chinese tankers or merchant ships.
00:05:30.940 I do see them potentially being stopped.
00:05:33.260 Now, there were reports earlier during the conflict that the Chinese had sent two ships with precursor elements for Iran's missile program.
00:05:47.020 And I suspect those won't get through the blockade.
00:05:50.800 Now, short of occupying that island, the Targ Island, I think it's called, and I think a blockade could be very effective in terms of putting pressure on Iran, certainly economic pressure, but it also puts pressure on European countries that also rely on oil coming through the strait.
00:06:11.120 they have thus far played a minimal role.
00:06:14.880 In fact, I believe UK Prime Minister Starmer
00:06:18.760 has condemned the idea of a blockade altogether.
00:06:22.920 He wants it, you know, stopped.
00:06:26.440 And so there's a lot of moving parts to all of this.
00:06:30.480 Are you concerned with the way it may play out?
00:06:32.800 Or do you think that this could work
00:06:35.900 in the United States' favor
00:06:39.220 in terms of bringing about concessions from Iran,
00:06:43.360 which thus far have failed to materialize.
00:06:45.840 So according to them,
00:06:48.460 they've refused to end their nuclear program. 0.52
00:06:52.900 They've refused to stop funding terrorist groups
00:06:56.920 like the Houthis and Hezbollah.
00:07:00.100 And so how do you think this plays out? 0.96
00:07:03.460 Well, I think this may be the mechanism 0.92
00:07:05.420 that gets the Iranians back to the bargaining table.
00:07:09.220 But, but time will tell, uh, you know, a lot of the Gulf states are finding alternate means
00:07:15.780 of getting their, their oil to market.
00:07:18.020 Saudi Arabia is using its pipeline.
00:07:20.740 UAE is now using a pipeline to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
00:07:25.360 Uh, there's something like 68 tankers on the way to the United States to get oil, uh, big,
00:07:31.640 big carriers. 1.00
00:07:32.820 So I think that the Iranians are going to find that the leverage they think they have
00:07:37.380 is, is not that great.
00:07:38.740 And if the Americans shut down exports to Iran, there could be food shortages.
00:07:45.860 Within 13 to 14 days, their oil storage facilities will be filled.
00:07:51.020 They'll have to shut down production of their oil industry.
00:07:55.560 And it's going to leave them in a pretty pickle.
00:07:58.440 Like I said, $13 billion out of the economy a month.
00:08:03.020 And I think you'll see that it'll have quite a downward pressure on their reel, which is their financial system.
00:08:11.940 Yeah, I mean, there was a lot of talk that boots on the ground would be a possibility if, for instance, Trump were to order some kind of occupation of those critical islands in the strait that, you know, are so critical to oil passing through that area.
00:08:32.100 And I'd like to ask you from a military standpoint, the use of the same strategy as the one used
00:08:39.860 against Venezuelan drug boats, you know, the fast boats, does that make sense?
00:08:45.420 You know, in a similar type, well, you have a different thing here.
00:08:50.300 You have the boats, the drug boats, right?
00:08:52.140 That were trying to transport their product to the United States.
00:08:57.760 And in this case, you have boats that are deliberately potentially trying to sabotage
00:09:02.260 traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
00:09:04.840 Do you think it's a strategy that's sort of transferable to Iran in this case? 0.62
00:09:11.880 Well, I think that the United States would do quite a number on Iranian fast attack craft.
00:09:18.140 They've probably got about 60% of their fleet left of fast attack craft, which is largely
00:09:23.480 in the hands of the IRGC, the Revolutionary Guard Corps.
00:09:27.120 Um, but I mean, their, their range is limited.
00:09:31.460 Uh, they're going to be under constant surveillance.
00:09:33.940 They're going to be subject, I'm sure to, uh, to attack by, uh, US, uh, A-10s and other
00:09:41.460 aircraft that'll be in a position to strike them and, and, uh, potentially drones. 0.97
00:09:47.180 Uh, so the Iranians tend to use asymmetric strategies to confront their opponents. 0.98
00:09:52.920 So missile forces, drones, naval mines, and these fast attack craft, they should be underestimated. 0.97
00:10:02.980 The Iranians practice swarm attacks using these craft, but they're not going to stand up very well to air power, hammering them into the water. 1.00
00:10:17.660 and I mean I know it's hard to speculate how much longer this is going to go I mean I think 0.99
00:10:26.180 Iran's chief weapon here really is the hope that it'll drive up gas prices and the continuation 0.73
00:10:34.220 of the war will eventually lead to growing opposition to it in the United States and of 0.96
00:10:40.800 course with the midterms now closing in still a ways off but it's coming I mean all of those
00:10:47.640 factors, at least from Iran's perspective, could force the United States' hand or Trump's hand
00:10:53.820 as we get closer to, say, summer. That's really what they're counting on, isn't it? I think
00:11:02.120 Iran is playing kind of a rag-the-puck game, isn't it? If they can just hold out long enough, 1.00
00:11:10.800 you know they could push this late enough in the election agenda cycle to for the United States
00:11:19.580 for for Trump to just withdraw and give up is that what they're hoping for here absolutely
00:11:24.860 they're hoping that Trump tires of the war and Trump single signaled that he was tired
00:11:29.460 of the war and wanted a way out which led to the ceasefire negotiations which then collapsed 0.73
00:11:36.300 Now he's come back with this naval blockade, but the Iranians are playing for time. 0.95
00:11:43.380 Every chance they get now, they'll be moving their missiles around, they'll be repositioning their drones, 0.96
00:11:49.880 they'll be digging out launchers and missile bases that were heavily hit by U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
00:11:56.700 They're already seen to be creating barricades around some of their main nuclear sites, including Ishvahan's site, where they are believed to have a lot of their enriched uranium underground.
00:12:12.080 So they're using the time to wear down the United States, to wear down the world in terms of oil and gas prices and aviation fuel.
00:12:22.920 And they're using the time to their military advantage. 0.64
00:12:28.920 I'm wondering if a blockade, at least in the minds of the American public, which has no appetite for yet another forever war, might play better.
00:12:40.260 A blockade might play better in the American public than, say, a shooting war, bombings and all that sort of thing.
00:12:48.480 Is it possible that Trump is bargaining on the possibility, counting on the possibility that there'd be a little bit more of an appetite for a blockade than there would be, say, in just more bombing?
00:13:02.720 Yeah, I don't think there's any doubt that this is why they've resorted to a naval blockade.
00:13:07.640 But keep in mind that the naval blockade also puts enormous pressure on the coffers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. They're about 40% of the GDP of Iran, and they get a lot of their money from the oil revenues.
00:13:26.060 So this really puts a crimp in their social life in terms of their proxy militias and their friends around the Middle East. 0.78
00:13:33.720 And so I'm sure that this is much preferable with the midterms coming from a political point of view at home. 0.78
00:13:41.500 But it has a real impact on the Iranians. 0.63
00:13:44.360 And I think that if there's a danger of the ceasefire coming apart, it's going to be when we see the Iranians try and break that naval blockade or attack a U.S. vessel, and then all bets are off.
00:14:01.400 What about Canada's role?
00:14:03.560 Much has been made by Prime Minister Carney, but Canada's growing role internationally.
00:14:09.940 I personally don't see that role having changed all that much.
00:14:14.940 I see us playing kind of a bit player type of part.
00:14:19.640 But, you know, in a case like this, we've heard Precious Little from Canada in terms of our position on the blockade.
00:14:29.060 We've heard the UK, for instance, be dead set against it.
00:14:33.420 But, I mean, if Mark Carney wants to play a role on the global stage and wants Canada to punch above its weight in terms of being a global player, shouldn't he be actively speaking out on this blockade one way or another?
00:14:51.440 I would suspect that the prime minister will be forced to do that at some point today, probably in support of his allies, Britain and France.
00:15:02.300 And Britain and France are trying to put together 40 countries or so to open up the straits and open up the Persian Gulf.
00:15:12.660 And I would suspect that they'll put pressure on Canada to join that effort.
00:15:18.060 That also keeps Canada out of any U.S.-led coalition effort, which would seemingly be the interest of the Kearney government.
00:15:28.120 I mean, in real terms, we can send some people, we could send some aircraft, or we could send a ship or two, or some helicopters or maritime patrol aircraft, but it takes a while to get them there, and it's going to require a lot of effort and a lot of money.
00:15:46.080 It's not clear to me that that effort and money is in place at this point.
00:15:50.680 I'm sure that the military, as they always do, have contingency plans.
00:15:55.200 But the real issue is how quick can you get people there
00:15:59.140 and how quick can you get equipment there?
00:16:01.660 And if they're not forward positioned, it takes some time.
00:16:07.420 Of course, we're spending more, supposedly we're spending more money.
00:16:11.760 We're up to that 2%.
00:16:13.420 I don't know where that money is going to come from,
00:16:15.300 except maybe just to borrow it.
00:16:17.640 But how does that factor in?
00:16:19.840 I mean, the fact that Canada now meeting its NATO commitment, does
00:16:24.760 that factor into any of this?
00:16:28.000 I think it's a good start that we're, we're, we're doing that, but keep in
00:16:31.600 mind, we're only getting to 2% by massive, uh, uh, uh, uh, kind of big,
00:16:39.000 big raises for military personnel, which they certainly deserve.
00:16:43.040 But the money went into the personnel, uh, pillar.
00:16:45.960 There's been some purchase of equipment, but the fact of the matter is to get to 2%, they had to bring in basically any sort of funding that they can find in 22 government departments that might be related to defense, including taking over the Transport Canada Challenger fleet and the Canadian Coast Guard, neither of which add anything to Canada in terms of military combat power.
00:17:11.660 Joe Varner, thank you so much for coming in the show. We really appreciate that.
00:17:17.360 Thank you, sir.
00:17:18.260 Joe Varner is senior fellow with the McDonald Laurier Institute. If you enjoyed this show,
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00:17:35.660 what we do here at Juno News. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll see you next time. Bye-bye for now.
00:17:41.660 Thank you.