Juno News - NEW Exclusive Poll： Poilievre CLOSES the Gap

00:00:00.000 China's killing our canola. $45 billion gone. Western farmers bleed. Mark Carney?

00:00:09.920 Silent. Made millions off Beijing's dime. He won't fight. He's Beijing's banker, not our Prime

00:00:18.720 Minister. Hi, I'm Candace Malcolm, and this is The Candace Malcolm Show. We're kind of getting into

00:00:31.760 the homestretch of the campaign, folks. We have the French language debates tonight. They changed

00:00:37.060 the time. Originally, they were going to be at 7. They moved them to 6 p.m. because, get this,

00:00:41.060 of the Montreal Canadiens game. You know that Canada is not really a serious country when the

00:00:45.900 debate, first of all, the debate is scheduled at the exact same time as a hockey game. Folks,

00:00:49.960 we get the hockey schedule, what, in like September or October? We knew that the Montreal Canadiens

00:00:53.900 were going to be playing. We knew there was going to be a Habs game, but somehow they didn't realize

00:00:57.380 it, and then the Block and the NDP put up a big fight saying, you got to move the debate. You

00:01:01.380 can't have it at the same time as a hockey game. So, they moved the time slightly forward. So,

00:01:05.620 the debate will now be at 6 p.m. Eastern time. We're going to go live at 5.30. So, we're going

00:01:10.360 to do a broadcast. We're going to have commentary before the debate starts, and then we'll show

00:01:15.440 you the entire debate. We're really excited because True North and Juneau News have three

00:01:20.220 reporters, three reporters that were approved to attend the debate and, more importantly,

00:01:25.420 ask questions afterwards. So, the debate itself, I don't know exactly what to expect. I don't have

00:01:30.100 high hopes because of the format, right? This is run by the government. The Trudeau government

00:01:33.720 created these federal debate commissions. So, rather than being hosted by private media companies,

00:01:38.840 it's government-run, which means that the issues will be predominantly what matters to, like,

00:01:44.100 left-wing Canadians, that the, you know, there's, well, the Green Party has dropped out of the

00:01:50.200 debate. They've been kicked out. So, there'll only be four leaders on stage, which is, I guess,

00:01:53.440 a good thing. But too much of time will be taken up by NDP grandstanding and block grandstanding.

00:01:59.340 Neither of those two parties have any shot at forming government or becoming prime minister.

00:02:03.660 In my mind, the debate should be a one-on-one between Poliev and Carney. I think that's what

00:02:08.020 Canadians want, but unfortunately, that's not what they're going to get. So, I think that the more

00:02:12.260 important part of the debate tonight will be when journalists get to ask questions of the leader,

00:02:17.960 the leaders, and that's why we have three journalists there. Very excited and happy about

00:02:22.340 that. If you want to support Juno News and support our ability to do these kind of things, right? Like,

00:02:27.720 we're not a big media company, a big corporate media company. We don't get government bailouts

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00:02:49.920 there. So, head on over to supportjuno.com and consider chipping in to help us with our coverage.

00:02:55.180 And then 5.30 tonight, 5.30 Eastern time, we will be live for the debate. We're really,

00:03:00.440 really excited about that. It will be on YouTube. So, please watch that. Our goal is to try to compete

00:03:06.980 with the big media companies and have Canadians watching us so that you don't have to watch the

00:03:11.240 bias coverage through the CBC and other legacy media reports. Okay, let's get to the big news. We

00:03:16.040 have a new exclusive poll from Juno News and it looks like things are trending in the right direction

00:03:22.360 for the Conservatives and for Pierre Polyev. They are closing the gap on Mark Carney. Like I've said,

00:03:28.040 the more Canadians get to know Mark Carney, the less they like him, the more questions arise and we

00:03:32.880 are continuing to see this. So, to talk about our poll, I'm very pleased to be joined by Juno News'

00:03:38.480 in-house pollster for this election, David Murray. David Murray works for One Persuasion and we have

00:03:43.640 hired him to come on for the election and give us analysis and do these exclusive polls for us.

00:03:48.640 David, welcome to the show.

00:03:50.220 Good to be with you.

00:03:51.200 Okay, so tell us about the recent poll. Pierre Polyev is closing that gap and narrowing in. This is

00:03:56.600 going to be an incredibly tight race. Tell us about the top line.

00:03:59.360 Sure, so the top line we have the Liberal Party of Canada led by Mark Carney at 39%,

00:04:04.000 the Conservatives at 37%, the NDP at 11%, the Greens to the Bloc Québécois at 8% and then other

00:04:10.960 parties is 3%. Wow, okay, so this really shows an incredibly tight race, right? Previously in the

00:04:20.380 campaign we had seen a pretty substantial lead for the Liberals and for Mark Carney even with our own

00:04:25.720 polls out in the field. I know a lot of viewers are quite skeptical of the polls. They don't think

00:04:30.660 that they have a good way of reaching Canadians and that many Conservatives might be disinterested

00:04:36.560 in polls. They might not answer, they might not reply, or they might just not tell the pollster what

00:04:42.300 they're thinking. And so even with this formula, we still see the Conservatives really closing that gap,

00:04:50.040 narrowing that gap. So tell us, can you describe how this has changed over like the past two, three

00:04:55.920 weeks here? The biggest, most notable change is in Ontario. So in Ontario, two weeks ago, we had a

00:05:02.860 14-point gap where the Liberals were 14 points above the Conservatives. Last week, we had Ontario at a

00:05:09.680 seven-point gap where the Liberals were seven points ahead of the Conservatives. This week, it's four

00:05:15.080 points. So if this trend continues, if this kind of momentum is able to be sustained, that's going to

00:05:21.160 be quite significant in terms of what that means, especially for the 905 and other very vital regions

00:05:28.320 within the province of Ontario. In Quebec, we're seeing a tightening of the race. Previously, we had

00:05:33.040 the Bloc Québécois leading the Liberals. Now they're both tied at 35%. That's going to make some very

00:05:39.940 interesting ridings across, especially in the eastern townships and over into the south side

00:05:46.280 of Montreal. That area, that's going to be, I think, a very, very pivotal region of the country,

00:05:53.120 especially for determining if it's a minority or a majority government. Those are areas that the

00:05:57.740 Liberals must win. Well, it's interesting because I said I'm not very interested in hearing from

00:06:03.320 Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet because he has no shot of becoming prime minister.

00:06:09.340 But the way you're describing it, he actually perhaps does play a big role in this because if

00:06:14.800 he shines tonight in the debate for the French audience, for the Quebec audience, it's possible

00:06:19.960 that those few seats that Marc Carney really needs to win in and around Montreal, that they could

00:06:25.580 possibly go towards the Bloc. Can you sort of describe that dynamic in Quebec and why this debate

00:06:31.280 tonight matters so much for the election? For sure. So in Quebec, especially on like the

00:06:38.500 Conservative side, the Conservatives are very strong in the National Capital Region, which is up by

00:06:42.200 Quebec City and up towards Jean-Claire, Chicoutimi, that area of the province. So when the Blocs start 0.98

00:06:48.500 to gain support, they're primarily taking away from the Conservatives. Once they reach a certain

00:06:53.760 threshold, that shifts to then them making progress significantly against the Liberals. And so

00:06:59.820 if we see a stronger and stronger Bloc, it doesn't actually take directly from the Conservative vote as

00:07:06.500 much as people think on a one-to-one basis. You start to see more interesting ridings come up, like

00:07:12.120 Trois-Rivières becomes very interesting, Bromisicoie becomes also very interesting. That's in the

00:07:17.340 southern, right along the Canadian-American border, right between Montreal and Sherbrooke. Those areas

00:07:23.960 are starting to become more and more in play as we go on. And while it might not be always a direct

00:07:31.000 benefit to the Conservatives, it's certainly very impactful on the overall makeup of how the House

00:07:37.820 of Commons will actually look, which is what really matters at post-election.

00:07:42.340 And so a lot was made after the Liberal leadership debates with Mark Kearney's French. I think that a

00:07:49.440 lot of Canadians would assume that he has like very good French just because he's part of Canada's

00:07:53.620 elite and he worked for the government. And yet when he was actually up on stage, it seemed that his

00:07:58.340 French was probably the worst of those on stage with the Liberal leadership debate. There was an

00:08:03.700 infamous phrase that he said, I think accidentally, that he said, we agree with Hamas. We agree with 1.00

00:08:10.640 Hamas. And so like, do you think that it's possible that he's going to have another blunder? I imagine 0.99

00:08:16.120 that he's been spending a lot of time practicing his French. Some people have said that it's improved

00:08:21.000 moderately throughout the past few weeks. The fact that Pierre Polyev is pretty much fluent, I don't

00:08:28.080 think French is his native tongue, but I understand that he speaks French very, very well. And then

00:08:33.700 obviously, the bloc. Do you think that that will have an issue? Like if French Canadians watch this 0.99

00:08:39.420 debate and realize that Mark Kearney isn't really one of them, and perhaps that the Liberals aren't the

00:08:44.040 party that best represents them? Is that an issue tonight?

00:08:46.860 I think it's part of it for sure. I think the other part of it is also just the, there's a certain

00:08:53.480 amount of forgiveness that will be given on the language stuff if there's like minor corrections.

00:08:58.260 But what's not forgivable is not demonstrating that you actually understand Quebec values,

00:09:02.380 what Quebec, how Quebec sees itself as a nation within Canada, even the relationship between Quebec

00:09:12.440 municipalities and stuff like that. And even like immigration, the cultural side. It's so unique

00:09:18.260 and so different. And they take a lot of pride in that. And so any leader that is not able to firmly

00:09:23.580 really put that forward and like demonstrate that to the Quebec people, I think is probably more

00:09:30.700 important than the language stuff. But the language, it definitely, it definitely does play a factor.

00:09:36.540 And we also saw this in Tous les Mains d'Empart, which is the, one of the leading French cultural shows

00:09:43.500 where Mr. Carney himself was only able to give like relatively simplistic answers to often very complex

00:09:52.140 questions that were given to him by the hosts. And contrast that with Mr. Polievre and Mr. Blanchet,

00:09:59.120 they're able to be much more fulsome, actually like explain nuances, expect like, especially at the level

00:10:04.560 that is needed to demonstrate that you can actually have the best interest of Quebec at heart.

00:10:10.160 Interesting, interesting. Okay, let's go back to Ontario, because you mentioned that there was

00:10:13.540 quite a big gap. And it seems to me that every election period, the election is pretty much decided

00:10:20.020 by suburban voters in and around Toronto like that, that always seems to be like whatever those voters

00:10:26.420 decide to go for. Obviously, every vote matters and every region matters. And we could talk about

00:10:30.580 Atlantic Canada and Quebec, and of course, you know, British Columbia, parts of the prairies will also

00:10:35.560 determine it. But at the end of the day, like, every party needs to capture this like suburban Ontario

00:10:42.460 vote. It seems to me that earlier in the campaign, before the campaign even started, the media sort of

00:10:47.180 cemented the theme of the campaign to be who can best deal with Donald Trump, and who's the best leader

00:10:52.360 to combat this tariff situation that we're facing. And Mark Carney sort of came in with this shining

00:10:57.920 resume. And in the minds of many voters, unfortunately, I think, they believe that Mark Carney is the man

00:11:04.400 for the job, that he's the right person at the right time, he has the right resume. And that was

00:11:10.300 sort of cemented. I think that that is the belief of many people in and around Toronto, specifically

00:11:16.700 women, suburban, like middle aged women, it seems, support isn't quite as strong as we would have

00:11:22.540 previously thought, like, from two weeks down, the gap between liberals and conservatives went from

00:11:28.440 14% down to 4%. So can you just kind of walk us through that? Is that because those people lost

00:11:37.560 faith in Mark Carney, that they no longer think that he's the best person for the job? Or who are

00:11:43.840 those voters? And how did they lose basically a 10 point lead in Ontario? Or how did they lose 10 points

00:11:49.700 and basically go from a 14 point lead to a four point lead here?

00:11:53.120 I think we're starting to see the issue set fundamentally change, which was the gamble that

00:11:56.720 the Conservatives put on since the beginning of this campaign. As we see more and more,

00:12:02.560 not stability, but where Canada is not like nearly as in the crosshairs as it used to be with the

00:12:08.160 President of the United States, you're starting to see a lot more focus on things like cost of living,

00:12:12.380 on building much more industrial independence to be able to

00:12:15.880 make other trading arrangements with other nations, including the EU, Australia, the UK,

00:12:25.420 and such. There's a lot of things that I think are really pointing that direction. The other

00:12:30.540 huge one is housing, where there's been, like, this is also a very significant concern in this

00:12:38.820 region specifically. Housing is so unaffordable in Toronto, and that includes the sprawl that is

00:12:44.940 the GTA and the 905 and down through the Golden Horseshoe by Hamilton, and then also crime. So

00:12:52.040 especially in Pew region, so this is Mississauga and Brampton area, rampant auto thefts. It is just

00:12:58.720 such a problem. There was actually, it was such a problem that Mr. Polly himself actually hosted a

00:13:04.680 rally specifically for Stop the Crime. One of the key five pillars that he, for the last two and a half

00:13:12.280 ish years, has put forward as a primary idea of his. He had former police officer Ron Chinzer there.

00:13:18.080 This is a very big issue. And one of the things that was actually very telling was when he asked

00:13:23.240 people, like, raise your hand if you've been impacted by auto theft. And like two thirds of the

00:13:28.400 of the room raised it. Like, either them or they knew someone that was, that had been directly

00:13:32.840 impacted by this issue. This is something that's, like, front of mind. So as more and more of the

00:13:37.360 conversation shifts towards those issues, I think you're going to start to see more and more support

00:13:44.160 behind what Mr. Polly is actually putting, is actually putting forward.

00:13:48.160 It's interesting, because that did become an election issue this week. Pierre Polly have said that he would

00:13:53.240 even consider using the notwithstanding clause to override this sort of ban that the Supreme Court

00:13:59.620 has put on life sentences, literally for mass murderers. And then you had Mark Carney coming out

00:14:05.420 and defending the charter rights, saying that it's a dangerous thing. It's up to the prime minister to

00:14:09.820 protect charter rights, which to our viewers was quite ironic, given that he was the one during the

00:14:15.780 trucker convoy, he wrote an article, he wrote an op-ed in the Globe and Mail urging the government to use

00:14:20.900 the Emergencies Act to crack down on peaceful protesters on Parliament Hill. And as we reported

00:14:25.900 just yesterday, Megan Murphy, who is an outspoken critic of the trans ideology, she had her bank

00:14:32.620 account frozen, right? And so again, Mark Carney's saying that it's up to the prime minister to defend

00:14:37.260 the charter of rights and freedoms, and yet he has not done that. It's an interesting thing to happen

00:14:42.900 in the middle of the campaign. David, I want to move on. So the prairies, it looks like the

00:14:49.080 conservatives are just basically going to walk away with this thing. The polling that we had

00:14:53.720 has the conservatives at 55% on the prairies, that's up three points, and the liberals down to

00:14:58.600 29%. The NDP really collapsing, single digits on the prairies, 8%. Talk about the prairies and what's

00:15:08.300 happened with the NDP drop. Does that mean that potentially the liberals could actually win more

00:15:14.280 seats on the prairies, even though the conservatives have this huge resounding lead? Obviously, in sort

00:15:20.540 of more urban areas, there's always more left wing voters, and that creates a risk. So talk to us about

00:15:26.800 what's happening on the prairies. Yeah, so from my perspective, this definitely does put a lot more

00:15:33.240 in play for the liberals, specifically in Edmonton and Calgary, if we look at specifically Edmonton

00:15:37.400 Centre. This was one that the conservatives were certainly hoping to pick up, and they still could,

00:15:43.360 but it's becoming more and more challenging as the vote split that is needed between the NDP and the

00:15:49.200 liberals is not materializing in the way that it is necessary to be able to put that forward.

00:15:54.940 We've also seen at the same time, the liberal support overall in the prairies has actually gone

00:15:59.920 down by seven points in the last week as well. This is also a very significant movement,

00:16:04.560 but we cannot overemphasize how important it is to have a moderately strong NDP presence in some of

00:16:12.460 these, especially core urban ridings, to be able to make them competitive, specifically for conservatives.

00:16:17.640 Interesting, interesting. Okay, let's move on to British Columbia, because that is a place

00:16:20.660 where the NDP collapse hasn't been quite so pronounced. Like, I mean, we're talking about

00:16:25.160 8% for the NDP on the prairies, but it's still at 22%, which I guess is fairly respectable compared to

00:16:31.080 the national average. But given the fact that there's an NDP government in British Columbia,

00:16:35.000 it's still quite low. We have the conservatives all the way up at 39%, plus three over the week prior.

00:16:40.760 So what does that look like? And maybe talk about some of the ridings that the conservatives really

00:16:46.560 need to win in British Columbia? Well, a collapsing NDP has huge ramifications in British Columbia,

00:16:52.640 specifically on Vancouver Island. I think we have, I believe it's five seats in play on Vancouver

00:16:58.800 Island. And they're typically almost exclusively battles between the NDP and the conservatives.

00:17:05.560 This is quite significant. It's very interesting also to see that Mark Carney showed up to

00:17:10.200 Victoria, a riding that the liberals have struggled in for so long. It really points to even the

00:17:19.160 liberals identifying this kind of vulnerability that the NDP find themselves in. This also translates

00:17:26.360 itself into other areas, specifically in the BC interior, I think is very interesting when we start

00:17:31.760 to talk about South Okanagan around Lake Penticton area. And in Vancouver proper itself, ridings like

00:17:39.040 Port Moody, Coquitlam is another, is a classic example of this. The dynamics that this actually

00:17:46.360 plays out in West Vancouver, Sunshine Coast, Sea Sky Country, and even down into Vancouver Kingsway and

00:17:53.200 others within the actual metro area itself. The fall of the NDP, despite even EB coming out,

00:18:01.280 vocalizing his support for them, is going to have very huge ramifications for the entire election as a

00:18:07.680 whole. Interesting. Okay. I want to talk about one of the questions that we specifically asked

00:18:12.960 to the, in the poll this week. I know you mentioned that crime, cost of living, all these other issues

00:18:19.920 have come into play. They're all kind of tangentially related to immigration. Immigration, you know,

00:18:25.600 this is something that Trudeau kind of drastically departed from the norm in Canada, say over the last

00:18:30.880 20, 30 years, really opened up the border. And especially post-COVID, it seemed like they were

00:18:37.360 trying to boost immigration in order to boost the GDP. It was kind of like a hack, just let in a lot of 0.99

00:18:43.440 people. And even though the economy is not doing well, you know, all these people will create growth in

00:18:47.680 the economy. The only problem of course was that, well, there's lots and lots of problems, but a major

00:18:51.760 problem was that there weren't enough housing for people and that there's not a lot of economic

00:18:56.160 opportunities for young men, which often leads to increases in crime, which we talked about that.

00:19:00.880 Canada became the car theft capital of the world, according to a UK paper. And so it all kind of

00:19:07.840 comes down to immigration. So why don't you ask, why don't you talk about this poll question that we

00:19:13.920 asked Canadians? We didn't say whose policy was who, but we presented the three different policies

00:19:19.840 of the three different parties to people in the polls, two Canadians to find out which one

00:19:25.840 they support without telling them which party voice, which policy. So why don't you walk us

00:19:32.560 through that question? Sure. So the actual question itself was, which of the following statements do you

00:19:37.440 agree with most? Number one, the government should increase its annual permanent resident target to 500,000

00:19:43.360 in an effort to increase Canada's population to 100 million by the year 2100. The second option was,

00:19:49.760 the government should maintain its present annual target of 395,000 new permanent residents per year.

00:19:57.360 Third option was, the government should decrease its annual permanent resident target to 261,000

00:20:04.320 permanent residents, bringing immigration levels in line with Prime Minister Stephen Harper's 2014

00:20:10.240 targets and then don't know. The top line of this is that an overwhelming rejection of anything but

00:20:17.680 Mr. Harper's targets. So 57% of Canadians across the country indicated that they would like to reduce

00:20:25.440 the permanent resident section of the immigration stream. Remember there's permanent residents and

00:20:30.720 there's a permanent resident stream. And then there's also a few temporary streams as well. This is only

00:20:35.840 dealing with permanent residents. The status quo, 23% of Canadians wanted to remain there. And then only 0.88

00:20:44.080 5% of Canadians want to increase it to the Century Initiative's 100 million people by 2100 target.

00:20:54.640 Wow. So even though, you know, Mark Carney's a preferred prime minister to the majority, or not majority,

00:20:59.840 plurality of Canadians, his immigration policy is incredibly unpopular. This idea that Canada needs 1.00

00:21:06.240 to just let in a million people a year and boost our population to 100 million. The purpose for the

00:21:12.560 Century Initiative is that they want Canada to be like a bigger geopolitical player. And they think

00:21:17.200 that in order to do that, we have to have this huge, massive population from people from all over the

00:21:22.000 world. That is a very fringe position for Canadians, like only 5% of Canadians actually want that Canadians

00:21:29.040 don't like open borders. And I almost suspect that if there was a fourth question, like, no immigration,

00:21:34.480 like, let's put a pause on immigration for a few years until our economy can grow, we can build more

00:21:38.800 houses, and we can integrate the people that are actually here. I suspect that that would also have

00:21:42.240 been a popular one, but we wanted to keep it with the parties. So folks will recall that it was actually

00:21:47.760 in the interview that Pierre Polyev did with us at Juneau News, the sit down that we did in February,

00:21:52.560 that he pledged to go back to Harper level targets and numbers. And that was back when Canada used to

00:21:58.880 admit approximately a quarter of a million Canadians, newcomers per year in the permanent residence

00:22:04.320 stream, 57%. So I think that shows that this is a winning issue for Conservatives, by and large,

00:22:10.640 and that Polyev should lean into it and talk about it more. What's your takeaway on that, David?

00:22:17.280 Well, it's very telling, even among people that are indicating that they're going to vote for the

00:22:22.400 Liberal Party today, only 8% of those people want to go to the Century Initiative target.

00:22:30.720 35% of Liberal supporters want to have the status quo, and 40% agree with Mr. Polyev in reducing to the

00:22:38.000 Stephen Harper targets. And then just one final, within the NDP, it's 6% that support the Century

00:22:44.240 Initiative targets. 47% want status quo, so that's much higher than everyone else. But still,

00:22:50.400 3 in 10 new Democrat supporters want to reduce immigration permanent stream residents' volumes

00:22:57.840 down to the Harper targets. This is not a fringe position. This is held by, straight at the top

00:23:06.800 level, a majority of Canadians. This is very significant. And I think that all party leaders

00:23:11.520 would be wise to understand that. And to listen to Canadians, that this isn't,

00:23:17.520 you know, I think that the left and the media like to say that those who oppose immigration

00:23:21.200 have some sort of bigoted mindset that they just don't like newcomers. It's clearly not the case,

00:23:27.040 given the ethnic makeup of our country already. And the fact that people are still saying that they're

00:23:31.360 open to having a quarter of a million newcomers come every year, 57% say that. So it's not,

00:23:37.200 it's not about any kind of like, thoughts on ethnicity or race. It really is, you know,

00:23:44.800 these other tangential issues that creates, you know, we're talking about social division,

00:23:49.200 we covered this on the show yesterday, these pro Hamas rallies that are kind of run amok all over

00:23:53.760 Canada, some liberal party sort of extremism, like you had MP Adam, then, then, Vancouverton,

00:24:03.120 Vancouverton, out there, at an extreme mosque, basically just saying, we're the party that

00:24:08.560 believes that Israel is committing genocide, and we're gonna defend Palestinians, and we're gonna do

00:24:13.760 all this stuff. And then on top of that, well, and also just sort of wreaking havoc and terrorizing

00:24:20.000 Jewish Canadians. And then on top of that, you also have the issues of housing, a lot of people

00:24:25.120 are connecting those dots and saying that part of the reason that housing has just become so

00:24:28.320 unaffordable, it's because we've had this huge influx of newcomers, new people in the country, 1.00

00:24:32.080 and not enough houses being built to catch up, keep up with that. And then on top of that,

00:24:37.040 the crime, obviously, there's a huge overlap. And a lot of that is just because of, like I said,

00:24:41.680 there's not a lot of economic opportunities. It's also interesting that there's now a mismatch in

00:24:46.960 terms of males and females in Canada, because so much of our immigration is dominated by young

00:24:52.160 men coming to Canada, that there's now I think it's like six or 7% more men than women, which creates 0.77

00:24:59.760 a whole other type of social division issue. Okay, David, I want to move on. There was another

00:25:07.440 polling company that sort of caught my eye. And this is the Main Street Research polling. And so it

00:25:14.480 seems to me, first of all, these guys are prolific, they seem to constantly be in the field, like

00:25:18.800 every every day or every other day on the campaign, we get a new poll from Main Street Research. And I

00:25:25.760 noticed over the weekend, on Saturday, they had a poll that had to be conservatives up two points. This

00:25:32.000 is the first poll that I have seen conservatives winning, maybe in the entire election campaign,

00:25:37.360 or at least in the last two, two and a half, three weeks. And so Main Street found that the Tories are up

00:25:42.960 by 2% 44% to the liberals 42%. I'm not sure if that would equate to I think that would still

00:25:50.160 equate to a liberal minority, if I recall correctly, just given that the liberal vote is more efficient

00:25:55.840 in those suburbs. But look at the NDP. So even with the total total collapse of the NDP at only 6%,

00:26:02.320 they still had the conservatives up at 44%. And then just in full transparency,

00:26:10.000 they did have another poll that they put out the next day. And that one had the opposite. Basically,

00:26:15.600 they had the liberals at 44 in the second poll, and the conservatives at 43. So either way, though,

00:26:22.960 Main Street is definitely picking up and capturing something that is obviously a major shift, right?

00:26:29.120 This is the first time I guess the first time we've seen conservatives ahead or even that close

00:26:33.280 in a poll that high 43% conservatives, even in their second one, 44. So first of all, maybe you

00:26:38.640 can comment on this poll and what you think of this firm and their results here. And then second,

00:26:44.880 like has the mood of the country shifted? Has there been like a vibe change that has allowed Poliev

00:26:52.800 to really have the momentum and really be heading into the home stretch with more and more enthusiasm on

00:26:58.880 the side? For sure. So on this poll specifically, I think it's very notable that it's an IVR poll. So

00:27:05.360 this is done like through your phone. What IVR polls are particularly good at, at least from my

00:27:11.440 experience, they're good at being the first to detect movement and the direction that it's going in.

00:27:17.440 They found that the magnitude for which the direction to which the movement actually happens,

00:27:23.040 that's up for debate. I think that the actual like endpoint for which it like consolidates around at

00:27:27.760 the end, that's also up for the debate, but they're typically the first to actually break that

00:27:33.120 there is a movement in a certain given direction. And so I think it's very interesting that we're

00:27:38.080 starting to see at least one other pollster, notably with this methodology to see this. It's

00:27:45.200 typically a canary in the coal mine in terms of like the actual like dislodging of public opinion

00:27:51.440 from one party to the next. In terms of the actual momentum going into the last the home stretch,

00:27:59.840 I think that it's worth also raising the button gate issue only because it was so counter to

00:28:06.400 everything that the liberals were trying to project and build their entire electoral coalition and brand

00:28:11.360 around, which was stability and being able to be the steady hand at the wheel. This kind of reckless

00:28:18.400 political activity that the war room staffers were engaged with, which obviously had the blessing 0.78

00:28:27.680 of the higher ups. You do not do something like that without very senior folks understanding what's

00:28:33.600 exactly going on. I think that while it's not a golden shot or anything like that, it really puts

00:28:43.600 forward some undertones that really discredit that position for which the liberals are trying to build.

00:28:50.800 And so if there's more and more of these kind of events that happen in the next like three to four

00:28:55.360 days, I think it could really snowball and really damage kind of the equity in their brand that the

00:29:01.040 liberals are trying to salvage and trying to pull off this wind. It's so interesting. We talked about

00:29:05.840 this on the show yesterday because there was also a leaked report that came out that showed that

00:29:10.960 CSIS was warning that the Chinese election interference would happen and that they would

00:29:15.600 be trying to paint conservatives in Canada as Trumpian and Trump-like to try to discredit them,

00:29:21.200 to try to make sure that the liberals win, which we know that China is supporting of Mark Carney and

00:29:26.160 the liberals. And so it's sort of right out of the playbook. Like we're seeing that this was actually

00:29:31.600 the liberals were warned that this would happen. And yet the liberals are the ones that are kind of

00:29:35.840 trying to like wag the dog in this way by using these like fraudulent tricks to try to fool most of

00:29:42.000 the media, but also Canadians, fool the media to make them think that conservatives are Trumpy and

00:29:46.080 then fool Canadians to think that Polyev is like a mini Trump or something like that. And I think also

00:29:51.600 just the fact that Mark Carney didn't fire these individuals, right? Like this is, this is to your point

00:29:58.400 that they obviously had higher up approval. But like on a campaign, if two junior staffers are out there

00:30:04.240 committing shenanigans and potentially committing some kind of an election fraud, uh, by trying to

00:30:09.920 frame conservatives for doing something they're not and then out bragging about it at a bar, um,

00:30:14.400 so that a CBC reporter heard about it, which is how the story got broken, um, hilariously,

00:30:20.240 like fire them, just fire them. There's two weeks left in the campaign, right?

00:30:23.920 Even the judgment of like Kate McKenna identified herself as a CBC journalist and they still

00:30:30.320 told her this is, this is just like a complete lapse of judgment at all levels with this guy.

00:30:36.240 That's why it's just so ridiculous. Well, and it's so easy to fire them. There's so much cause

00:30:41.600 to fire them. And yet Mark Carney was out there saying that he was going to reassign them, right?

00:30:46.080 Which means to me that he's not taking it very seriously, which means to me again, that he endorses

00:30:50.960 it or he approves of it, or he thinks that it's, it's, that's, that's part of the acceptable behavior

00:30:56.080 within team liberal. And I think that again, it's kind of like Paul Chang, right? He, he, he came out,

00:31:03.120 uh, Mark Carney came out after the Paul Chang controversy for folks that don't remember, uh,

00:31:07.200 the union mill Markham MP and candidate for the liberals, um, was caught on tape basically saying

00:31:14.000 that his political opponent and a conservative candidate in the area should get turned over to

00:31:18.720 the Chinese because the Chinese didn't like his advocacy, uh, for, for, uh, free speech and a free,

00:31:24.400 uh, an independent Hong Kong. And so therefore he should get turned over for bounty. Um, Mark Carney

00:31:30.400 refused to fire him. And it wasn't until like three or four days of really, really intense scrutiny

00:31:35.440 from the press and, uh, pro democracy campaigns and Chinese Canadians that he eventually withdrew

00:31:42.800 himself, uh, Paul Chang. So it seems to me that Mark Carney has a bit of a problem, um, with discipline

00:31:47.600 or with, um, knowing the difference between right and wrong as basic as it seems. Uh, do you think

00:31:53.840 this is something that is, is, is shifting Canadians minds? And then final question, like,

00:31:57.680 what are you watching out of these two debates this week? Uh, what, what do you think the main

00:32:01.200 thing that Pierre Polyev has to do? Uh, so on the second, I think that it debates are easy to lose

00:32:06.960 and hard to win. So it needs to be, Mr. Polyev needs to project himself as being prime ministerial,

00:32:11.680 has to be very thoughtful, has to demonstrate that, uh, like really his policy chops, which are

00:32:16.880 extremely, uh, extremely advanced and fine-tuned. I would know this very well personally. Um, so like

00:32:23.680 that contrast, he needs to try to, uh, build, especially given that the, the narrative that

00:32:29.760 they're trying to build around Mr. Polyev is one of basically recklessness and trying to compare him to,

00:32:36.960 to the president of the United States is very, uh, very focused on what their, it's very clear what

00:32:42.640 their objective is, and you really need to deny them that, uh, and Carney needs to not screw up, uh, which

00:32:49.360 is, uh, very, uh, in a world where like he, so he has very advanced corporate communication skills. Um,

00:32:59.040 that is fundamentally different than political communications. I think that people are starting

00:33:02.160 to realize that now, um, he gets flustered very easy. I think that it's very easy for other like

00:33:08.960 journalists that are not, that don't have a huge vested interest in, uh, like a, not, not nearly as

00:33:15.680 direct as, as Mr. Polyev to, uh, to make, uh, to get the one up on him or whatever, to get under his skin.

00:33:22.720 Like that, like these are things that are just unforced errors that he has not learned from, like thinking

00:33:27.680 about the tax saving stuff, uh, where he follows his taxes. Uh, there's even some of the, the other

00:33:32.560 Brookfield, uh, uh, issues that have been identified over the course of the campaign. He's never

00:33:40.480 gotten a question, gone back and thought about the answer after, because he knows he's going to get

00:33:46.560 asked it again. Or like if you give an unsatisfactory answer, you're guaranteed to get asked it again.

00:33:52.400 And if you don't come prepared, like that's even worse than that, because you don't have the

00:33:58.080 opportunity to put any issue to bed if, if that's the case. So those are things that I'm really going

00:34:03.200 to be looking for in the, uh, in the debates. I think that they're actually going to be quite

00:34:07.600 substantial. I think the viewing audience that's going to be viewing the entire debate, like watching

00:34:12.400 it from start to finish, I think it's going to skew towards the over 55s, which is the demographic

00:34:17.120 that Mr. Carney has the most to lose. Um, and every party is going to be pushing out their clips. So

00:34:23.520 on the positive side, in terms of that, like that's going to be universal, but the whole debate, uh, is

00:34:29.600 going to be like quite meticulously scrutinized from all sides. Very, very interesting. Well, thank you,

00:34:35.040 David Murray, for the insights. We look forward to having you back next week will be our last poll

00:34:39.600 of the election campaign. And we're going to do a writing by writing deep dive into where Polyev needs to

00:34:44.800 win in order to win and where Carney would need to win. So looking forward to that. Uh, thanks so

00:34:48.720 much. And we'll talk to you again soon. Take care. All right, folks, we'll be back

00:34:53.520 live at 5 30 PM Eastern time for our French debate show. Don't worry. Our broadcast won't be in French,

00:35:00.240 but, uh, we will be covering the French debates and I hope you will tune in then. Thank you so

00:35:05.120 much. I'm Candace Malcolm. This is the Candace Malcolm show. Thank you. And God bless.

Juno News - April 16, 2025

NEW Exclusive Poll： Poilievre CLOSES the Gap

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