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Summary
In the wake of the recent by-elections, there are many questions about the future of the Conservative Party, including who will replace Pierre Polyvencic as leader, and what it means for the future direction of the party.
Transcript
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Well, the Liberal-majority government that Canadians did not vote for is here,
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thanks to four Conservative floor-crossers and one NDP floor-crosser.
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Yes, it was made official by the results of three by-elections on Monday,
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but let's be honest here all three of those writings were held by liberal mps before the
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by-elections were called so this majority government for the first time in canadian history
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was formed entirely through floor crossing this is politically unprecedented territory that we are
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now in and let's be honest about this as well it does undermine canadian democracy it doesn't mean
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canadian democracy is over it doesn't mean that mark carney is some evil villain it just does
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undermine democracy definitionally it does canadians did not give this government a majority mandate
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and yet they manufactured one but let's not pretend as if the blame on this doesn't largely
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fall with the conservative party in the last federal election the liberal party won 169 seats
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four conservative floor crossers alone gave the liberal party 173 seats a majority plus one
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which covers them with the speaker add lori idlow to that mix from the ndp and you get to where we
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are now 174 so whatever exactly happened in the minds of those four conservative mps that decided
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they would have a better home in the liberal caucus to turn their back on their voters is
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still to be fully understood you could maybe make a case for some of these mps but for maryland
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gladu the social conservative that's a hard case to make she essentially has sacrificed herself
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and her political career just to undermine pierre polyeth maybe there's a patronage position down
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the road maybe there's an ambassadorship to fiji somewhere in her agreement with mark carney but
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But otherwise, this makes very little sense, if not to personally undermine Pierre Paglia.
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So where do we go from here as conservatives in this country?
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Just months before the 2025 federal election, many in this country felt as though the conservatives
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were going to lead this country with the majority of their own.
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Today, leading Canada feels further away than it has in years.
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Today, Conservatives won't get another shot at a federal election until potentially 2029.
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That will take us to about 15 years of liberal rule in Canada.
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On this episode of Ratioed, I just want to talk about two options I see for the Conservative Party over this period of time.
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We're going to talk about Pierre Polyev's survival as leader,
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and I'm also going to talk about what I think the viewer can do to get involved and to make a
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difference. Juno News is delivering Canadians with hard-hitting, reliable, and most importantly,
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with truly independent journalism. Unlike other media outlets, Juno News doesn't take government
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handouts. So you can use my code junonews.com slash HarrisonReturn to get a discount on a
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Juno News subscription. I get my news on Juno and you should too. As always, before we get into it,
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be sure to drop a like on this video, subscribe to the Juno News YouTube channel, and the common
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question for the episode is this. If Pierre Polyev leaves as leader, who should lead the
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Conservative Party next? Let me know your answer in the comments below and let's get into it.
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Whether it was the Joe Rogan podcast appearance or the Canada-US relations speech delivered in
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Toronto, both of which were great, by the way, for Polyev, neither moment has managed to stop
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the bleeding. Neither moment has managed to lead to a turning point for the leader of the party.
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Let's just be completely blunt about this. Despite those two great moments, the Canada-US speech,
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the Joe Rogan appearance, floor crossings persisted. The polls haven't budged. And right
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Right now, it feels as if the Conservative Party has reached one of its lowest moments.
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Mark Carney now leads a majority government that he can ride out until 2029.
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The power that a prime minister of Canada has in relation to other Western democracies
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For example, far more than the UK prime minister and even the president of the United States.
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That's why many consider Canada to be what is described as an imperial democracy.
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He has complete control over judicial appointments.
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He has complete control over Senate appointments.
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He can appoint the leaders of Canadian crown corporations.
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Pretty much every major position at the top of the Canadian government and the Canadian
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now with the majority government, Mark Carney has complete control over the House of Commons.
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Canadian parliamentarians are some of the most disciplined in the world, meaning that they
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pretty much always vote with their party leader. Carney can expect to wield this enormous power
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for many years. It's bleak. There's simply no other way around it. But let's step back for a
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moment and look elsewhere. In 2024, Keir Starmer won a landslide majority government, completely
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decimating the uk tory party after a prolonged period of conservative rule today the labor party
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is polling in fourth place behind the green party leading in the polls is nigel farage's reform party
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trailed in a distant second place by the conservatives if this poll was to hold reform
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and the tory party would hold a considerable share of the vote and could control the balance of power
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in westminster political fortunes can change very quickly in australia the situation is even more
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interesting the anti-mass migration right-wing alternative party one nation led by pauline
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hansen is now pulling ahead of the liberal national coalition which is essentially the
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center-right party of australia traditionally the liberal national coalition is the most dominant
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party in Australia. But if this were to hold in the next election, there's a possibility that
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right-wing parties in Australia could hold the balance of power, One Nation, and the Liberal
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National Coalition. Now let's just point out the obvious fact here. In both examples I just cited,
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the party that is the most interesting to watch, in the UK the party that is leading, and in
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Australia the party that is making a surge, are alternative anti-conservative establishment
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political parties a populist protest movement against establishment conservative parties
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that have failed to actually govern conservatively the uk tories of course are the worst offenders
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of this with the only conservative aspect of the party being its name but the liberals in australia
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aren't too far behind either which is what has led to this sudden collapse in the establishment
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conservative vote and the rise in these protest alternative movements. We just don't have that
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in Canada. The PPC was never viable and it has now been relegated to being a joke. So with all
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that being said, I believe there are two options here in front of the conservative party. Crucially,
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none of which are guaranteed to succeed and neither of which will I be personally endorsing.
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I'm just giving you two options for the direction I think the party could take at this obvious low
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point in the party's history the first option become a regional coalition split between the
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west and the east here's why i say this federal conservatives do not seem able to make considerable
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electoral inroads in eastern ridings the same way that provincial conservatives can
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tug ford is able to consistently win liberal gta ridings in provincial elections where you have a
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considerable number of voters that are voting liberal federally and conservative provincially
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in newfoundland a conservative tony wakem has just won now he's not a western conservative
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he is firmly what you would describe as a progressive conservative tim houston is the
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same way this same approach can be said for prince edward island and although new brunswick
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is now led by a liberal blaine higgs was able to win new brunswick so why is it that we just
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can't seem to see the same federal gains that we're seeing at a provincial level it's pretty
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obvious that the ideological base of the modern conservative party is in the west it is in alberta
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i think that's pretty uncontroversial to say at this point and i will also say that it's really
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important that a major federal party is that connected with the west in canada i think it's
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good for canada but is it good electorally is it working if for example you had a progressive
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conservative party that was focused on winning over seats in the east in ontario all the way
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out to newfoundland that operated in the same style as doug ford tony wakem or tim houston
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and then you had a western conservative party call it the conservative party of canada that
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operated in the style of danielle smith or scott moe then potentially you could actually form a
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legitimate coalition and ensure that conservatives hold on to power now this is not guaranteed to
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work i want to stress that and i also want to stress that i'm not proposing anything totally
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original here this has been brought up before i'm just offering it as a potential idea to try and
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overcome this eastern issue the other option of course is to go full-throated conservatism to try
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a reform style campaign shift now this may require a new leader to signal a genuine turning point for
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the party but it might not have to what i mean by this is that the conservative party could try at
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this point to go all in on conservatism no holds barred i'm talking about running on immigration
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restrictionism, an elimination of ethnic politics from government, mass deportations, bringing back
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the death penalty, and a willingness to adopt social conservative policies. Look, this is not
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a complete list of ideas and it's by no means extensive here. I think you know what I'm getting
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at here. Going full-throated conservatism all the way and just seeing what happens.
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at this point i imagine there's quite a few conservative voters that just want to see it
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they just want to see what happens who feel like there really isn't much to lose at this point
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the risk with this one is high for sure you could walk into the worst electoral defeat in decades or
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generations with this strategy it could result in another 15 years of liberal rule but for many
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many years now conservatives have not actually tried this approach they have tried to dance
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around this approach they've tried to be conservative sometimes and more centrist most
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of the time they've taken almost the posture of being slightly ashamed of how they actually feel
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on most issues but i'm talking about an approach that is bordering near reckless abandon full
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conservatism this would certainly differentiate the conservative party from the liberal party
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it would give canadian voters the greatest contrast yet at the ballot box when you read
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comments on social media from conservative supporters you'll often hear people urging
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the party to adopt a gloves off approach to be more conservative to not be afraid of receiving
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negative media backlash this is what i think they're getting at here and it is obviously an
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option we've seen it work and if you look at the way the political winds are changing in the west
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those that are adopting these positions are in some cases reaping the rewards in others not so
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much but there is something happening here look you may feel quite depressed about all of this
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if you're a conservative in canada which almost all of you are if you happen to be a liberal
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watching this video to embrace the conservative cope well i hope you've enjoyed it but i came
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across a tweet from national post columnist tristan hopper earlier this week that i wanted
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to share because i think it's really important at this point in time he wrote this one thing i
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advise young canadians particularly men is to join something a church a service organization any
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anything strengthen your community and that community becomes less easy to divide and exploit
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now you don't need to get involved politically but i also urge all of you watching to get involved
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in your federal and provincial electoral district associations your local conservative boards you
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can actually urge the party to adopt policy changes you can actually make a difference
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if you bring in numbers if you are serious the country is obviously in a bad way right now
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morale is low especially if you're a conservative now is the time to get involved not to wait around
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for politicians not to wait around for mps to speak up for you this is an all hands on deck
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moment for canada and for people who are genuinely serious let's briefly just touch on the leadership
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of pierre pauliev here already the toronto sun for example is making the case that if pierre
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pauliev continues to lose conservative mps he can no longer hold on to the leadership of the
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conservative party i think it's a fair point to make and it's especially poignant coming from
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the toronto sun loyal to the conservative cause no doubt pierre pauliev has more charisma more energy
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than erin o'toole and andrew sheer there was really no debate about that people believed
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that pierre paulia was going to become prime minister i'm sure that hundreds of thousands
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of canadians if not a million conservative canadians believe that he still can become
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prime minister but the problem is that he cannot get a grip on the polling the prime minister is
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wildly popular and there are many reasons for that not everyone who supports mark carney is a raging
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liberal, woke, social justice warrior. We need to be honest about this as conservatives.
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Mark Carney is wildly popular. Pierre Polyev is not nearly as popular as Mark Carney. So we are
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in the early stages of a serious reckoning. We are back in that cycle as conservatives.
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And we're going to have to see if the party can hold on to what it has, wait for a liberal
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scandal. Wait for something that might finally change the channel on this message that Mark
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Carney is running away with power in this country and that he's going to hold on to it until 2029.
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All right, everyone, that's going to do it for us today on the show. A reminder that you can use
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my link, junonews.com slash Harrison return to get a discount on a Juno news subscription. And
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further reminder to engage in the comment question of this video if pierre pauliev is to leave as
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conservative leader who would you like to lead the conservative party next let me know in the
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in the comments below. My name is Harrison Faulkner, and this is