Juno News - Ottawa already seeking to 'derail' an Alberta pension

00:00:00.960 Rachel Emanuel brings the news each day on Alberta Roundup. She has her say.

00:00:10.560 Hey, everyone. Welcome back to the Alberta Roundup. I'm your host, Rachel Emanuel.

00:00:14.320 Today, we are once again taking a look at the Alberta pension plan. We know that there has

00:00:18.480 been some people organizing all over the province trying to push this thing through. Today, I am

00:00:23.520 joined by Mitch Sylvester. He's the UCP chair for Bonneville, and he's also the lead on the

00:00:28.400 Alberta First Pension. Mitch, thanks so much for joining us today.

00:00:31.920 Yeah, you're welcome. Nice to be here.

00:00:35.520 So Mitch, why don't you start off by explaining. I know that you've been doing town halls all over

00:00:39.280 the province informing people about the Alberta pension plan, what that would look like for

00:00:42.800 Albertans. What exactly is your plan here? What are you guys working on right now?

00:00:47.200 Well, what we're trying to do is we're trying to basically educate people and get them to

00:00:50.560 understand why it's such a good idea to move the Alberta pension plan here from the CPP.

00:00:54.400 We're really seeing that it's an absolute no-brainer from our perspective. Albertans will be richer,

00:01:01.920 we'll have a better pension plan in the end, and it'll be a large transfer of a huge asset to the

00:01:07.520 province of Alberta and away from control of the federal government.

00:01:12.080 So you just said it's a no-brainer. What are some of the actual digits that we're looking at? What

00:01:16.640 would be the cost benefit for Albertans if we were to pull ourselves out of the Canadian pension plan?

00:01:20.880 Well, Albertans pay $9 billion a year to the CPP and only collect six. So that'll give us the

00:01:27.680 opportunity to use the difference to give our seniors a large increase in pay. The way we're

00:01:32.880 framing this is that we can give seniors a 40% increase in pay, which comes to about $3,600 a year

00:01:39.200 based on a $750 a month check, which is the average. And the other great benefit of that is that

00:01:46.080 the fund actually owes the province of Alberta $335 billion based on the original formula that

00:01:53.200 set this whole thing in motion. So when Canada Pension was built, it was designed so that people

00:01:58.080 could leave the pension fund and leave with their contributions, their net contributions,

00:02:03.280 even if they had run their own pension plan. So as a consequence to that, Alberta's overpaid

00:02:08.160 has paid more than other provinces and accumulated $335 billion. Now that's based on an actuarial report

00:02:17.280 by LifeWorks, which is formerly Morneau-Chapelle. Now looking at that, we understand that when they

00:02:24.640 came up with that $335 billion number, I'm sure that they looked at it very carefully,

00:02:30.640 fully understanding how big a deal that was going to be if they released that number,

00:02:34.480 and how much of a big deal it would be for the province of Alberta to acquire an asset of that

00:02:38.800 size. So one of the things that you just said that caught my attention there was that if we were to

00:02:44.720 pull ourselves out of the Canada pension plan, we would actually be able to give seniors a boost

00:02:48.880 in their pension plan payments. One of the things that the Alberta NDP has been saying time and time

00:02:53.120 again with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith and looking at this idea of an Alberta pension plan is, you know,

00:02:57.520 they're really fear mongering. They're saying to seniors, you guys aren't going to have a pension.

00:03:01.440 The Alberta government wants to steal your pension. Sounds like you're saying the exact opposite.

00:03:06.080 What would be the monetary value of this boost to payments for seniors?

00:03:10.800 $3,600 a year, it would be very easy to do without changing anything. So it's based on our

00:03:16.160 contributions, which are $9 billion a year, because we're younger, we work more hours, and we're richer.

00:03:23.040 And that's not going to change for 25 more years. So what we're seeing is that in the very short term,

00:03:29.280 Albertans will be able to get an immediate 40% raise, but in order to bring it over, it has to

00:03:34.640 at least match CPP. But that won't be a problem. We'd still have that $3 billion surplus. So if we

00:03:42.400 decided to give seniors a 40% increase in income, we could actually leave that $335 billion or whatever

00:03:50.960 that number is that they owe us sitting in one pile. And we could allow it to collect interest. If we

00:03:56.800 allowed that to collect interest at the current rate, in eight years, it would double. So just

00:04:00.880 imagine we'd have $670 billion in a pile there that was also collecting interest. And at the current

00:04:08.560 rate of return, that would give us about 10 times the annual rate of return of what we actually pay

00:04:14.960 into Canada Pension. So the stability of it is unquestioned. There's absolutely no worries about

00:04:20.320 stability. As a matter of fact, I would venture to say that we would be way more stable than the actual

00:04:25.840 CPP itself. So Mitch, you've been doing some of these town halls. What are some of the questions

00:04:31.920 that you're getting? How are Albertans feeling about the prospect of having their own pension plan?

00:04:36.480 Well, everybody's very excited about it by the time you leave the building. What I'm seeing, the

00:04:41.680 big concern is, is the transportation part of it. But I mean, that's built into every pension plan.

00:04:47.600 The pension would follow you if you decide to move away and you've paid into Alberta pension. It would be

00:04:52.880 just the transportation part of it would be just like CPP. If you move somewhere else,

00:04:57.040 it follows you around. I think that's the biggest worry people have. We haven't really heard much

00:05:01.360 about the fact that people are afraid that the pension wouldn't be there for them.

00:05:05.280 One of the things we know is that, you know, the Alberta government commissioned this report

00:05:09.440 and the federal government disputed its findings. And now we're waiting for the federal government to

00:05:13.200 say what they actually believe Alberta is out. I believe that number is expected in the fall.

00:05:17.120 Is this an issue for people saying, well, you know, I'm interested in having an Alberta pension plan,

00:05:21.520 but I don't actually know what we would be getting from the federal government. And so I'm not really

00:05:25.040 keen to make a decision until we hear that number from the feds. Is that something that's coming up?

00:05:30.880 That's only coming up from government. I really haven't heard it from the people. The people are

00:05:36.240 anxious. Everybody understands that there's going to be money coming over. The lowest number we've heard

00:05:41.440 is $120 billion. Even at $120 billion, if you look at the financial position of the province,

00:05:47.840 which is $100 billion in debt with $25 billion in the heritage trust fund, that's still a large windfall.

00:05:55.440 That's a lot of money. But that's also not including the $9 billion a year that we pay into the fund,

00:06:02.480 which makes it very stable for Albertans, much more stable than for probably anywhere else in the

00:06:06.400 country. So even without the number, we have a very stable fund and could give seniors an increase in pay.

00:06:12.720 So that latter number that you just mentioned, do you think it's still worth it then for Alberta to

00:06:18.640 pull out of the Canada pension plan, have its own, even if the federal government were to say,

00:06:22.160 I disagree with your findings, I'm going to give you about one third of what the province is asking

00:06:26.560 for, what the province believes it owes. Is it still worth it to pull out and create our own?

00:06:30.240 Absolutely. It would be, it's still, it's still absolutely worth it. It's more than,

00:06:37.520 it would still be one of the most solid pension plans anywhere in the world. There's absolutely no

00:06:42.640 way that if somebody offers you even $125 billion with the amount, with the way we pay in, that by

00:06:50.880 the time that our demographics and our population gets to the point where we're collecting more than

00:06:56.400 we're paying, that fund will be a huge amount of money. The other thing that I see here is that

00:07:02.560 most people that we talk to in town halls and everything don't really feel that there's going

00:07:07.520 to be a pension plan there for the younger people or for their kids. This way we would assuredly have

00:07:13.280 a pension plan there for everybody. When we talk about that $125 billion being on the lower end,

00:07:19.280 I mean, I think you'll agree with me that the current federal level government isn't exactly a big

00:07:24.000 fan of Alberta. Most of us feel we haven't exactly gotten a fair deal. It seems that Prime Minister

00:07:28.080 Justin Trudeau isn't too interested in Albertans. Do you think there's any chance that, I mean,

00:07:32.080 for lack of a better word, the feds would maybe try to screw Alberta over even more than by giving 1.00

00:07:36.560 them less than that $125 billion? I just suspect they are going to make this process as difficult

00:07:41.680 as possible and to drag it out as long as possible because it's not in Ottawa's best interest to have

00:07:46.640 Alberta pull out of this plan. That's absolutely correct. So right now they're already trying to

00:07:52.640 to derail us. Heather McPherson, an NDP member from Edmonton, is putting in legislation

00:07:59.520 that would actually say that they're going to have to change the rules as they go. So what they're

00:08:05.920 proposing is they're proposing to make it like a constitutional thing where you have to have seven

00:08:10.160 out of 10 provinces agree before Alberta could leave the pension plan. Based on the current agreement,

00:08:15.120 it's Alberta's right to leave the pension plan anytime it wants. If they change that, 0.89

00:08:18.960 which is such a large asset at stake, I think they're going to do everything they can to keep it.

00:08:24.800 I believe that that would be their best chance to derail this. I think the number's in stone.

00:08:30.320 I really think that I talked to other actuaries and I asked them literally, how close is this number?

00:08:37.040 And they said, well, you have to understand the fact that these people have done homework and they've

00:08:41.040 looked really hard at these numbers and they wouldn't publish that and put their name on it

00:08:44.720 if they thought that this number wasn't very accurate. And the other thing that I always bring

00:08:49.200 up at our talks and meetings is that Bill Morneau, who was finance minister for the Liberals up until

00:08:54.800 a very few years ago, it's his firm that wrote this report up. He's very aware of what that number is.

00:09:01.120 He's a liberal. He totally understands the consequences of putting that kind of a number out there.

00:09:06.880 Our biggest thing is that it's such a slam dunk, no brainer for us. We're just not understanding

00:09:12.560 why Albertans are not all excited about getting it to come over as fast as they can. Everybody's wary

00:09:19.040 of it, but I think that there's no need to be. I think it's absolutely, it's law. It's something that's

00:09:25.200 been thought out in the sixties when they wrote it up. And the number coming to Alberta is legitimately

00:09:31.920 large. And that's why all the fuss. You said, you know, people seem a bit wary, usually after

00:09:38.080 the town halls, people sound more excited about it, hearing the benefit to Albertans. Have you noticed

00:09:42.400 a difference at all doing a town hall and say rural Alberta versus somewhere like Edmonton,

00:09:46.080 the response, or is it pretty much the same everywhere you go? It's been pretty much the

00:09:50.800 same everywhere we go. We've had very little opposition, actually, in the town halls we've been at.

00:09:57.760 We bring an expert to answer the questions. That's not me. It's been 10 or 10 days been coming with us.

00:10:06.880 He's an economist. So he answers all the hard questions because he has all the answers. That's

00:10:11.920 what he does for a living. And he currently agrees that it would be a very, very good deal for Alberta.

00:10:18.560 An actual Marnot Chapelle's report actually agrees that it would be a very good deal for Alberta.

00:10:23.600 So we're not by ourselves and thinking that it's going to be a very good deal for Alberta. Actually,

00:10:28.480 anybody that talks about it agrees that this is a very good deal for Alberta, not such a good deal

00:10:33.600 for the rest of the country. But you know what? I think that's not our concern. I think the rest of

00:10:39.520 the country votes against Alberta on a regular basis. They bring in governments that try to hurt Alberta

00:10:46.960 and continue to try to hurt Alberta. So I think Alberta, in this particular case, needs to take care

00:10:52.880 of itself. I was looking at some numbers and it seems like everywhere else from the rest of Canada

00:10:57.040 is trying to move here anyway. So it might be in their best interest after all. More people are

00:11:00.640 moving to Alberta than any other province in Canada. So Mitch, you're doing these town halls. What exactly

00:11:06.080 is the process? You guys are collecting signatures. Explain to me what are the steps that you're doing

00:11:09.680 before we might actually have a referendum on having an Alberta pension plan?

00:11:14.160 So we need 10% of the electorate to sign on our petition in order to get the referendum triggered.

00:11:21.920 What we need to do is we need to gather the names of the people. We have a 90-day window to do it.

00:11:27.680 So we're going to gather the names ahead of time and then we're going to go door to door and get the

00:11:32.640 signatures after it's done. Or if failing that, the other thing that's come up lately is we just

00:11:39.280 might do a straight door to door campaign after we do the town halls. So you're doing the town halls,

00:11:45.360 collecting signatures now, getting the names, and that way when you only have that 90-day period,

00:11:49.440 you kind of know who to go back to and get signatures from again. Do I have that correct?

00:11:53.680 Absolutely. That's exactly the plan. So for people who are listening or interested,

00:11:58.480 is there somewhere that you're posting your town halls, people can know where to go?

00:12:01.280 How can people best get involved?

00:12:04.160 Okay. So we have an Alberta First Pension website. You can sign up directly on the website.

00:12:09.200 You can do it there. And then the other thing is, our town halls are all going to be posted there.

00:12:13.760 We'll be going all over Alberta again. So we'll have a town hall very close to where you live,

00:12:18.240 no matter where you live. We're going to go back to the peace country and then come back south. 0.94

00:12:23.600 We're going to be in Edmonton on Monday night, the 27th. And then we'll be starting a whole bunch

00:12:28.720 more meetings in June, back to central southern Alberta, the far south. So yeah, we pretty much

00:12:35.200 got Alberta already all booked and all covered for the next five, six weeks.

00:12:40.000 Great. Mitch, thanks so much for joining us today. You know, I don't think the Alberta Pension Plan

00:12:45.200 has gotten much coverage in the legacy media, but it's probably one of the bigger stories unfolding

00:12:48.960 in the province right now. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of months and

00:12:52.320 certainly to see what that number that the federal government offers us in October is. So thanks very much

00:12:56.640 again for explaining to my audience and just telling us a little bit about what's going on in those

00:13:00.080 efforts. Yeah. Thanks, Rachel. Thanks for the opportunity. All right, everyone. I hope that

00:13:04.640 you guys have a great rest of your week. Don't forget to subscribe to True North so you don't miss any of

00:13:08.640 my content or any of my colleagues content and to like this video. Let me know if you guys want to hear

00:13:13.200 more about the Alberta Pension Plan. I'll see you guys on Saturday. Have a great week and God bless.

00:13:26.640 Thank you.

Juno News - June 05, 2024

Ottawa already seeking to 'derail' an Alberta pension

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