Juno News - Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are leading a BLUE WAVE across Canada

00:00:00.240 Conservatives are surging in the polls across the country.

00:00:03.440 Not only are Pierre Polyev's Conservatives in firm majority territory,

00:00:07.600 but even provincial Conservative parties are becoming increasingly popular.

00:00:11.600 Are we witnessing the end of woke socialist political rule in Canada?

00:00:15.280 We'll talk about it and find out. I'm Candice Malcolm and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.

00:00:30.000 Hi everybody. Thank you so much for tuning into the podcast. This will be our only podcast of the

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00:01:02.800 a story. Okay, so we all know that the Justin Trudeau Liberals have seen their support absolutely

00:01:08.640 collapse in recent months, basically ever since Pierre Polyev became leader of the opposition

00:01:14.000 and began to present a realistic and more compelling, frankly, alternative government to

00:01:19.360 that of Justin Trudeau. Well, according to the latest polls which were just released over the weekend,

00:01:24.320 the Libs could potentially slip into third or possibly even fourth party status in the next

00:01:29.920 election whenever that may be held. So check out the latest numbers. This is from Abacus polling.

00:01:34.960 This came out on March 24th and basically during the period of March 16th to March 21st, the Abacus

00:01:41.760 pollsters talked to 3,500 Canadians about who they would be voting for if an election were held today.

00:01:48.160 They found that 41% of committed voters would vote Conservative. Liberals were down at 23, the NDP at 19,

00:01:55.280 and the Bloc Quebecois notably have surged up to 33% in Quebec, which shows a dramatic fall from the

00:02:02.560 Liberals in that province. So you can see this nifty little graphic put up by our friends over at Canada

00:02:08.080 Proud. And they project that the Conservatives would win an enormous 223 seats. But look who would come in

00:02:15.280 second. According to this model, the Bloc would win 41 seats, only 39 for the Libs, NDP right behind at

00:02:23.360 37. So you could see a world where the Liberals are not the opposition party, that the Bloc Quebecois may

00:02:30.560 be the opposition party. And Jagmeet Singh is not too far behind. So really a huge, incredible shift. This

00:02:37.600 represents, this isn't an outlier. This represents what a lot of polls have been finding. So if we look over at

00:02:44.080 338, which is a polling aggregator, they aggregate polls and models of various data, this is the

00:02:50.480 latest update from March 24. It also shows the Conservatives at 42% nationally, the Libs down at

00:02:58.000 25, NDP at 19. So no matter which poll you look at, no matter which survey you see, what we see is that

00:03:05.120 Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party continue to hit new lows. We see that Canadians are desperately waiting

00:03:10.880 for an election so that we can tell the Trudeau Liberals exactly how we feel about them. So with

00:03:16.480 all this in the background, cue the Liberals to come up with a scheme that personally enriches themselves,

00:03:22.080 while also potentially tries to tip the scales in the next election. So last Wednesday, we saw the

00:03:27.520 Minister of Public Safety, Dominic LeBlanc, introduce potential changes to the Election Act. The main thing

00:03:33.600 that they talked about was potentially moving the current election date from October 20th to October 25th.

00:03:40.480 So as you know, Canada does not have set elections. And particularly when we're in a minority

00:03:45.200 governing situation as we are in right now, an election could happen at any time. Jagmeet Singh,

00:03:50.320 leader of the NDP, could wake up any morning, decide to grow a spine and decide to deliver to Canadians

00:03:56.160 what they want, which is an election. He could trigger an election anytime he wants. But Singh instead

00:04:02.800 continues to prop up the Liberals. And as he does, there is a maximum term that this government can be

00:04:09.040 in office. There is a law that says that there must be an election on the third Monday of October in the

00:04:14.720 fourth calendar year following polling day of the last general election. So last election, of course,

00:04:19.760 was in 2021, which means that the latest possible date for an election would be the third Monday

00:04:25.840 in October in 2025, which is approximately 18 months from now. So why would the Liberals want to delay that

00:04:32.480 vote by one week? Well, let's look at a recent report from True North. This is from our website

00:04:38.000 from Sunday. Liberals eyeing new election date that coincides with MP pension qualifications. So

00:04:42.800 Dominic LeBlanc claims that rescheduling the day to a week later is just to acknowledge the Hindu

00:04:47.760 religious festival of Diwali, saying that it is a bill designed to strengthen Canada's democracy.

00:04:54.320 Other changes, which are also worth noting, that it will expand the days for advanced voting and

00:05:00.480 make it easier for mail-in ballots. So, of course, nothing these politicians ever say is true. This

00:05:07.280 has nothing to do with Diwali. It has nothing to do with strengthening our democracy. The idea of 0.95

00:05:12.160 mail-in ballots and advanced polling, everyone knows that it does the exact opposite to strengthening

00:05:16.960 our democracy. It makes our democracy easier to meddle with. Well, the real reason that the Libs want to 0.79

00:05:22.000 push back the date by one single week is so that more Liberal MPs will qualify for a gold-plated,

00:05:28.320 lifelong taxpayer-funded pension. So let's read more from this True North article. It says,

00:05:33.840 however, the rescheduling of election day also carries with it a significant caveat, which applies

00:05:40.160 to certain MPs' pensions depending on when they were voted in. So all MPs receive a pension after six

00:05:46.240 years of service, meaning that any MP that was elected back in the 2019 election will hit that six-year

00:05:53.600 threshold if the election is held after October 20th, 2025. Isn't that cute how that works out? So

00:06:00.240 an election date of October 27th, just seven days later, means that millions and millions more dollars

00:06:06.720 in taxpayer-funded benefits will go to politicians. So isn't that neat? Isn't that wonderful how that all

00:06:13.680 works out? So let's discuss polling. Let's discuss public opinion a little more. I am pleased to be

00:06:19.360 joined today by my guest, Hamish Marshall. You know Hamish well around here. He's a partner at One

00:06:24.160 Persuades, which is a government relations strategy firm based in Ontario. Back in 2019, he served as

00:06:29.440 the Conservative Party's national campaign manager. In 2017, he led Andrew Scheer's winning leadership

00:06:35.360 campaign. Prior to that, he worked for Stephen Harper as his manager of strategic planning and his

00:06:41.120 pollster. And you will remember him well because during that 2021 federal election, Hamish worked here at

00:06:46.880 Trenorth as our in-house pollster. And we always really enjoyed his analysis and his insight into

00:06:52.880 what's happening in Canada. So Hamish, welcome to The Canada's Welcome Show. Thanks for joining us.

00:06:57.200 Great to be here again. So first, let's start with the polls. Let's start with where Justin Trudeau

00:07:03.440 is, where Conservative leader Pierre Polyev is. What are your comments on these latest rounds of polls?

00:07:09.600 Well, I think I saw a desperate column by some sort of Liberal recently saying,

00:07:12.960 well, we're now doing math that shows that Pierre has peaked. And while he's doing well,

00:07:17.440 he can't possibly do any better. But I feel we saw things like that a few weeks ago,

00:07:21.840 and the numbers keep going up. And we're now consistently seeing numbers in the low 40s.

00:07:27.280 And really seeing the split between the NDP and Liberals, which means that we should see very low

00:07:32.720 numbers of Liberals and NDPers elected. The really stunning thing about this isn't just the collapse of

00:07:38.240 the Liberals, which we kind of hope for and expect with what's been going on with the way they've

00:07:43.600 been running the country. But the incredible thing is actually how the NDP haven't profited. In the

00:07:48.800 past, when the Liberals are dipping into the low 20s, the NDP are usually tied with them, or maybe ahead

00:07:54.000 somewhere in the mid-20s. They're picking up those votes. We're actually seeing, which is pretty

00:07:58.240 incredible, is that Polyev Conservatives are gaining votes not just from the Liberals, but also potential

00:08:05.040 votes from the NDP. There's lots of blue collar and traditional NDP voters who are taking a good

00:08:12.480 long look at the Conservatives and liking what they see. What is it that is appealing more and more

00:08:16.720 to blue collar workers? I mean, I think it's the directness of his message. I think it's the

00:08:20.400 authenticity. He is projecting very much that he understands and cares about their lives. The Liberal

00:08:27.360 government has very much been focused on fancy people. Whereas Pierre, his message is very,

00:08:34.400 very focused on how he's going to make life better for everyday Canadians. And you don't have to

00:08:42.400 try to buy an EV and live in downtown Toronto to do well in Pierre's Canada. So I think he's very

00:08:48.800 much connecting with those voters, both in industrial places like Windsor or Thunder Bay and in places like

00:08:57.040 Thunder Bay, like Northern Ontario or Vancouver Island, where there's a whole chunk of blue collar

00:09:00.640 board workers that Haleev was really appealing to. Well, not to make it too personal, but I always

00:09:05.280 found it really interesting that the sort of blue collar left would still rally around an individual

00:09:10.560 like Jagmeet Singh. I mean, it's almost like a satire when you see some of the things that Jagmeet Singh does.

00:09:17.600 I mean, I think he has a Rolex watch collection. He drives a BMW. His wife posts images of her on Instagram,

00:09:24.400 wearing like $1,000 dresses. I think there was someone caught a picture of him shopping in Toronto

00:09:29.200 a couple of weeks ago when he was carrying like a Versace shopping bag. I mean, I can't imagine how

00:09:35.200 he would continue to have the support of blue collar people. I guess the only question I have is like,

00:09:39.920 why did it take so long for them to notice that Jagmeet Singh is obviously not a champion

00:09:45.840 of the working man? He's an elitist and a champagne socialist.

00:09:49.360 I think it's partly that voting habits are just that. They're often habits. People sort of say,

00:09:55.840 well, I'm with this party and they generally stick with the party. Most people generally

00:09:59.120 stick to the party unless they're sort of knocked hard out of that lane. So I think it's partly

00:10:04.560 habit. I think it's people not paying that close attention to Mr. Singh. But I also think that

00:10:10.560 conservatives had to have someone who directly appealed to those sort of voters. And, you know,

00:10:16.480 Pierre Paulieva has gone out of his way and gone after those voters in a direct way and it's paying

00:10:20.400 off big time. So what do you think of the latest poll that shows that perhaps Justin Trudeau wouldn't

00:10:25.600 even be the leader of the opposition if there were an election held today? What do you think will happen

00:10:30.800 to the Prime Minister if he were to lose an election that badly? Will he stick around in office? Will he

00:10:36.240 immediately resign? What do you think will happen? You know, they won't be finished counting the

00:10:39.760 ballots before he resigns, if it's anything like that. You know, Justin Trudeau is interested in being in one

00:10:44.720 thing and that's being Prime Minister. Well, actually, according to an interview he did a few

00:10:48.240 weeks ago and perhaps not even interested in that. He's not interested in sticking around as leader of

00:10:53.520 the opposition. He's done that. He did that, you know, as the leader of a third party 10 years ago

00:10:58.240 and he's not going to sign up for that again. He'll be gone very, very, very, very, very quickly.

00:11:04.720 What did you think of that, by the way, that article where he said, I mean, I think that his spin

00:11:08.880 doctor has tried to claim that the word he used, plot, doesn't mean boring. From the comments in

00:11:14.560 our video when we talked about it, French-speaking people said that, no, no, it doesn't just mean

00:11:18.720 boring. It means that you're bored because you believe the job is beneath you. What do you make

00:11:25.040 of all that? I mean, I don't think I've ever seen anything sort of so tone deaf. I mean, how do you run

00:11:33.120 again to be Prime Minister once you've given that impression that the job is beneath you,

00:11:37.120 the job that can be, quote unquote, super boring? It's staggering. It is, you know,

00:11:43.120 it's obviously not a job for everyone, but it is a job of constant stimulus, a job we're dealing

00:11:48.800 with crises every day across this huge country. The idea that you could find that boring and still

00:11:55.200 want the job is, it's just mystifying. Yeah, that's exactly what I thought. I'm like,

00:11:59.760 are you even doing the job? Like, do you, like, it's so all encompassing. I remember Stephen Harper

00:12:04.320 being like so incredibly busy working all the time with like huge files in front of his desk. Like,

00:12:09.680 I mean, if you think it's boring, it's probably because you're not doing the job. Like,

00:12:13.840 it makes me think someone else is running the government. I don't know. Let's talk a little

00:12:17.920 bit about this idea of more mail-in ballots, because, I mean, you've focused on elections

00:12:23.760 pretty much your entire career. And, you know, the details are pretty slim about these changes

00:12:29.920 that are going to happen. But when I look at what happened in the United States in 2020,

00:12:35.120 what we saw is a huge, huge increase in mail-in ballots, and it wasn't split evenly amongst the

00:12:40.400 parties. So, as we know, Biden voters were nearly twice as likely as Trump voters to vote by mail.

00:12:47.360 So, if you look at it, 46% of all voters voted by mail, which is astonishingly high. I mean,

00:12:52.720 this was peak COVID, right? It was the fall of 2020. But only 32% of Trump voters voted by mail-in

00:13:00.000 ballots versus 58% of Biden voters. So, obviously, the Democrat Party were a lot more effective and

00:13:06.800 efficient at driving out those votes through mail-in ballots, which just leads to all kinds

00:13:11.200 of questions and suspicions about who those folks were. So, I think, from my perspective,

00:13:16.960 mail-in ballots just make things less clear and less safe. What are your thoughts on that?

00:13:22.400 Yeah, I think it depends how the system is run. I think the one caveat on some of those numbers is

00:13:26.000 that a lot of states made themselves solely mail-in ballots in that election. So, Oregon,

00:13:32.880 for instance, which is quite a heavily Democratic state that Biden won easily, you could only vote

00:13:37.520 by mail-in ballots. It was the only option in some Democratic-leaning states was to vote by mail.

00:13:43.360 So, there's definitely a skew, and there was definitely sort of a distrust, I think, of the

00:13:49.520 government systems that Trump voters had that were less likely to put their ballot in the mail and

00:13:55.040 not be sure it ever ended up getting counted. You put it in the mail, who knows where it goes.

00:13:58.960 It was sort of the feeling. You know, we had large numbers of mail-in ballots in various elections

00:14:03.920 in Canada during COVID. It seemed to work reasonably well, but I think we should be cautious. I think

00:14:12.320 I'm a big, big believer in people voting on Election Day with a pencil. The system is basically

00:14:18.000 entirely unhackable, and I think that's a very, very good thing. So, look, we've had mail-in ballots in

00:14:23.840 this country for a long time for people who are going to be out of town on Election Day or away for

00:14:27.520 a month or sick or something, and that's okay, but a wholesale expansion of the program for no

00:14:34.480 other reason than it would seem as convenient. I think we should just sort of keep our eyes open and

00:14:38.960 make sure that the appropriate safeguards are in place. Well, and you made an important point

00:14:43.680 there. I don't know if you meant to, but it's called Election Day. It's supposed to be the day that

00:14:47.200 we all come together to vote, so things can happen. Things can change at the last minute,

00:14:51.600 and with that 2020 election, I remember that a lot of people were encouraged to vote in advance,

00:14:56.960 and then some crazy scandal would happen, and the top trending thing on Google would be like,

00:15:01.760 how can I change my vote, or is it too late? Can I re-vote or something like that? Because they had

00:15:06.080 already mailed in their ballot like two months earlier, and then they didn't realize maybe how

00:15:10.320 cognitively declined Joe Biden was, or something like that, and they wanted to change. I mean,

00:15:15.840 interesting analysis, but yeah, you're supposed to vote on one day. It's supposed to be Election Day.

00:15:21.520 Yeah, I mean, in this country back in the 1800s, elections took place over a matter of weeks,

00:15:25.040 where people had different areas, different polls, and there was lots of days, and there was lots of

00:15:28.800 confusion around it, and the idea of putting everything on Election Day in one day was actually

00:15:34.080 sort of for democracy. The idea that everybody voting at the same day, there's less funny games,

00:15:38.160 everybody has the same information, and it's actually a fairer election, and it's really funny

00:15:42.800 when you think that we literally have rules in this country, but when the polls can be open on

00:15:47.200 Election Day, you know, there are different hours in BC and Ontario in order to have the most amount

00:15:52.160 of overlap as possible, so people, you know, can't vote in BC when the election's already being decided

00:15:57.600 back east, or something like that. You know, we've gone to this idea of having everybody vote on the

00:16:01.920 same day is enshrined in legislation. It's something that they take a lot of time to take very seriously,

00:16:07.040 and yet, now they're saying, well, no more people should vote, you know, weeks in advance.

00:16:11.680 Well, it's interesting, Hamish, because speaking of British Columbia, I mean, I grew up in BC,

00:16:14.800 and I remember, well, I remember learning about how election, there was an election, I don't know

00:16:18.800 exactly which one it was, it might have been Chrétien, or it might have been an older Trudeau,

00:16:22.880 where basically the results were in before polls closed in BC, so nobody bothered to vote in BC,

00:16:28.320 because it's like, well, the election is over, it doesn't matter what we think, and I think that kind of

00:16:32.640 helped fuel a little bit of Western alienation, certainly in BC, but I want to talk to you about

00:16:38.800 polling out in BC, because it seems like there's been a seismic shift in polls, I couldn't believe

00:16:43.280 this when I saw it, which is that there were new polls that were out in the field from March 18th

00:16:49.680 to 19th, that showed that the NDP, which is a provincial government, the governing party out there,

00:16:55.280 still in the lead with 40%, but the second place is no longer what used to be the BC Liberals,

00:17:00.800 now called the BC United, you can see there in like green 15%, but basically a new party that no one's

00:17:06.160 ever really heard of, or at least has never had large numbers of support, you can see that the

00:17:11.200 increase is 32, and that the party is pulling at 34%, so maybe you can provide some insight, I know we're

00:17:17.440 both originally from BC, although neither of us live there now, but what's happening out west?

00:17:24.000 Well, you know, you make an interesting point I've never heard of, first of all, this polls a bit of an

00:17:28.880 outlier compared to other polls that have been out in the field that generally show BC Conservatives

00:17:33.280 and BC United around the same point in the 20s, and look, you're right, the BC Conservatives are a

00:17:38.720 party that has not had a lot of profile for a very long time, they've picked up two MLAs of BC United

00:17:46.000 MLAs who have left BC United for a variety of reasons and ended up with BC Conservatives, but what they do

00:17:51.040 have is a fantastic name. The other thing that poll had was the provincial, sort of the federal ballot

00:17:55.840 question, which showed that the Polio Conservatives were at like 49 and a half or 50% in British

00:18:00.640 Columbia, which is staggeringly high, in which case they'd win all the three or four seats in

00:18:05.680 the province probably. And so what people are hearing, people, you know, don't know what BC

00:18:12.080 United is, it used to be called the BC Liberal Party, which is also probably not a great name these days,

00:18:16.400 and BC United is still a new name, and then they hear Conservative and they go, yeah, like I said,

00:18:21.360 I like the Polioff guy, and we'll see how maybe I like these guys provincially. So I think they're

00:18:26.080 profiting from having a really, really good name. But they're, you know, they're a very small party

00:18:30.880 that doesn't have a lot of resources. And, you know, we'll see how that translates in the actual

00:18:36.480 election. But also, this poll seems pretty out of step with, with most of the other polls. So we've

00:18:42.320 certainly seen polls with the BC Conservatives in second place in the last six months, but they've been

00:18:46.720 sort of at, you know, 24%. And the NDP has been at 44 kind of thing. So this part of big jump in the

00:18:53.360 last few weeks, it doesn't really line up with what we're seeing from the other pollsters.

00:18:58.320 So does it look like the NDP will win another election? I'm not even sure when the next election

00:19:05.280 is. The election's in October. In October. And, you know, it's been true in BC for the better part

00:19:11.840 of 100 years, which is when the right is split, the NDP win. So if, unless there's some sort of

00:19:18.640 consolidation, the NDP is going to have a much easier go of it. But, you know, the other thing

00:19:24.960 that's happening is that, you know, the NDP is being in power for eight years now. They're getting

00:19:30.640 pretty shop-worn. The stories that are coming out of BC and healthcare, which is supposed to be

00:19:35.360 the NDP's great strength are just unbelievably appalling, just horrific stories. People being

00:19:42.000 people having spending two weeks on in hallway medicine in a hospital, getting just seniors,

00:19:48.640 getting discharged to bus stops in the middle of the night. It's just unbelievable horror stories.

00:19:53.040 And everybody I speak to in BC has got some sort of terrible healthcare story. So the NDP is certainly

00:19:58.640 weak. And, you know, whether it's BC United or BC Conservatives, I think BC United's got more

00:20:05.040 horsepower in terms of institutional resources, you know, can certainly do a, the NDP can be

00:20:12.800 certainly damaged, but they've got a, they've got a big structural advantage right now.

00:20:16.320 Well, it's interesting because in Alberta, the party, the two parties did merge and they became

00:20:21.520 the Alberta United party. And here it's called the BC United party, but they haven't, they don't seem to

00:20:26.000 be very united. So yeah, if they hand another election victory to the NDP, I think that'll be a huge

00:20:34.080 mistake for the parties for, for not finding a way to get along. Hamish, I wanted to ask, so I had you

00:20:40.400 on in December, right before New Year's. And I asked, will there be an election 2024? You said no. And I

00:20:46.800 think that you, you left a lot of the viewers and myself included a little bit dismayed by that answer,

00:20:52.800 because I think we all just want an election. We want to, we want to see Pierre Polyev in action.

00:20:57.760 So, you know, the, the, the stories that I talked about off the top of the show are all

00:21:01.600 about potentially 18 months until an election, no election anytime soon. Final question. Do you

00:21:08.240 still hold up that same prediction or the same idea that we're not going to have an election until the

00:21:12.160 very last minute? Unfortunately, I mean, the liberals might be very bad at running the country,

00:21:17.760 but they're not suicidal. And there's no universe where Justin Trudeau, when he's 20 points behind,

00:21:23.280 is going to call an election. So I think we're going to have an election in the fall of 2025.

00:21:28.240 Well, what about Jagmeet Singh though? We were looking it up and apparently his pension

00:21:31.840 vests or whatever you want to call it, his full pension kicks in, in February of 2025. So I figure,

00:21:37.360 hey, anytime after that, maybe the guy will be willing to grow a spine and call an election. What

00:21:41.360 do you think from the NDP? I think the most likely scenario is that in about a year from now,

00:21:46.640 the NDP is going to want to try to separate themselves from the liberals in order to say,

00:21:50.800 they actually weren't doing what we all know they did, which is prop up the liberals all this time.

00:21:56.560 And they are going to manufacture some sort of left-wing demand, I don't know what, where they

00:22:01.760 will say, you know, we demand X or Y. And unless the liberals give it to us, we're going to withdraw

00:22:09.760 from the agreement in advance of the budget in the spring of 2025. So maybe the election will be a year,

00:22:16.160 there'll be some sort of manufacturing crisis about a year from now. And in the budget itself,

00:22:20.560 or in the fallout from it, there will be some sort of vote that the NDP would vote against the

00:22:28.080 liberals and cause an election. But everything we've seen from the NDP for the last decade

00:22:34.720 is that they're actually not very confident in coming up with strategies that help themselves.

00:22:38.320 So I don't expect them to implement something like that. So I still think all things being equal,

00:22:44.080 the fall of 2025 is the most likely time.

00:22:46.480 Well, I'm disappointed to hear that. Although I think you're completely correct that they're

00:22:49.280 not very good at coming up with these. I mean, that was what PharmaCare was supposed to be. That's

00:22:52.800 what I think what this whole Gaza resolution was supposed to be about. But NDP don't seem very

00:22:57.200 good at even following out their own, whatever they're trying to do right now. Well, Hamish Marshall,

00:23:01.920 thanks as always for the wonderful insights. This is Hamish Marshall from One Persuades,

00:23:06.480 Candice Malcolm, and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.

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Juno News - March 26, 2024

Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are leading a BLUE WAVE across Canada

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