Juno News - Presidential Politics and Another Civil War

00:00:00.000 you're tuned in to the andrew lawton show

00:00:06.500 welcome back to the andrew lawton show as i said at the top it is a canadian

00:00:15.200 domiciled show but we try to get a sense of what's happening in the world everywhere and

00:00:20.000 certainly with the american election coming up in just a couple of weeks we'd be remiss to not

00:00:24.620 point it out but it's not coming from the place of obsession like a lot of canadian media approaches

00:00:29.900 it nor is it coming from the place of not actually understanding american politics i've spent a lot

00:00:36.200 of time focusing on u.s politics and in the u.s observing elections and whatnot and i think it's

00:00:41.560 very important that we we talk about this in a more measured way than a lot of other canadians do

00:00:46.800 with that being said i want to talk about some of the big themes in this we've got the debate coming

00:00:52.020 up on thursday as i said the election coming up in just a couple of weeks and we've also got

00:00:57.480 some dynamics in the media that i think are going to play out regardless of what happens

00:01:02.960 but i want to talk about some of those eventualities i'm very pleased to be joined on the phone by my

00:01:08.440 friend and a colleague dennis lennox a conservative and republican commentator and strategist dennis good

00:01:15.020 to talk to you thanks for coming on today hey andrew thanks for having me now one of the things that

00:01:19.500 i think is important to start off on here you being from michigan this was one of the the great

00:01:24.060 stories of the 2016 election where you had the democrats not pay any attention to michigan

00:01:30.400 wisconsin the midwest more generally and these people really being i think the the cornerstone

00:01:36.480 of donald trump's victory where do you see the midwest playing a role in 2020 well you know in

00:01:43.880 2016 by this point i had actually predicted that trump would win because of what i was seeing on the

00:01:48.720 ground in michigan um this time around though andrew um i just can't make a prediction um i want to

00:01:55.780 believe that trump's enthusiastic support gives them an immeasurable advantage i mean let's be honest

00:02:01.280 nobody really supports joe biden and of course i know many of the listeners aren't aware of sort of the

00:02:05.760 the inter machinations and dynamics but basically biden has no support you know you contrast that by

00:02:12.540 trumpsters trumpians trumpists whatever we call them uh many of those people would jump off the

00:02:18.700 peace bridge for trump i've never seen anything like it those people never came out for romney

00:02:23.760 they never came out for mccain um never seen them in the past um i've said for four years this

00:02:29.500 election in places like michigan will be about turnout if more republican voters show up trump's

00:02:35.020 going to win um it's not that i don't believe the polls i just don't trust him you know i was i saw

00:02:40.480 some um internal private polling that i'm privy to over the weekend that and i'm no pollster but i've

00:02:46.520 been around the game for a while that you know the sample that they had put together for us 70 percent

00:02:51.440 of the respondents were cell phone respondents great you know if you're in york center if you're

00:02:56.660 in detroit that works great you're in these rural areas states like michigan and wisconsin that are

00:03:03.120 going to largely be decided by rural voters i'm not quite sure if a 70 cell phone sample is actually

00:03:09.660 reflective of the voter demographics let alone a 75 year old retiree in florida or 70 year old auto

00:03:17.460 worker in ohio i just don't see them using you gov's online polling panel um it's entirely possible

00:03:24.180 that trump wins but the math is so stacked against republicans because of the electoral college system

00:03:30.340 and the changing demographics of this country he's got to run the table he has to win florida

00:03:35.380 he has to win ohio he has to win arizona which is becoming very difficult he has to carry north

00:03:41.680 carolina and he either needs to win pennsylvania or he needs to win a combination of michigan and

00:03:47.200 wisconsin otherwise it's just mathematically impossible um for the republicans to win because

00:03:53.200 of the changing demographics of the united states yeah and that's a really important point and i don't

00:03:59.960 want to get too in the weeds on on numbers but it used to be you know four or five six elections ago

00:04:05.500 that there were a few states that if you won those you had a fighting shot now there is a series of

00:04:12.080 states for a republican not for a democrat a series of states for a republican wherein everything needs

00:04:16.960 to go right for you to win not just four or five elections ago uh look trump last week was in georgia

00:04:23.820 two and a half weeks before the election trump was in georgia that would have been unthinkable

00:04:28.920 an election ago i mean that's the that is the american trump going to georgia two and a half weeks

00:04:34.140 before the election four or eight years ago would have been considered the american equivalent of the

00:04:40.280 tory leader going to battle river crowfoot two weeks before the election that the reality is arizona

00:04:47.820 once solidly red north carolina once solidly red georgia once solidly red they're all either

00:04:55.420 blue dow or trending that way virginia is a lost cause texas is trending battleground status

00:05:01.680 there's not a single blue state you know blue in the american context being leftist um that is trending

00:05:09.580 republican so the democrats have a democratic advantage to their favor in that most of these red states

00:05:17.400 um that are desirable places to live are trending democrat and that hurts republicans now trump did

00:05:25.920 something in 2016 that no other republican could do let's not forget this the republican party was

00:05:30.880 dead it was on life support before trump uh this is a party that you know once in six attempts won a

00:05:38.900 national majority over 24 years trump did something that no other republican could have done if the nominee

00:05:44.720 in 2016 had been chris christie or little marco or lying ted or you know scott walker the idea that

00:05:53.240 any of them could have beaten hillary clinton is absurd

00:05:56.340 yeah and that this was i think the big story and and where there is an importance in anyone who's

00:06:04.920 outside of the u.s looking in to understand which is the dynamics that really drove the trump victory

00:06:11.740 and and a lot of those people i guess here's the question the people that had lost their

00:06:16.240 factory job to outsourcing to china people that had been forgotten by democrats and republicans for the

00:06:23.800 last half a century in rural america the people that were called bitter clingers by obama the flyover

00:06:30.160 country i mean we've heard all the euphemisms the deplorables are those people still trump supporters

00:06:35.980 four years later or do we even know sure but there's just not enough proverbial bald fat old

00:06:41.760 white men with plumbers crack to win the election i mean you know that there's there's just not enough

00:06:47.100 of them um i said it in 2008 in fact actually i think in one of your previous iterations we've had

00:06:53.060 this discussion before um you know i said it in 2008 um after the obama title wave that and the

00:07:01.040 republican party had to start looking and talking like the america of the second decade of the 21st

00:07:07.100 century we're not in the third decade of the 21st century the reality is you just can't win with

00:07:13.720 bald fat old white men now that trump you know trump's goal is to gin up the turnout as much as he can 0.55

00:07:20.740 pick off enough of the african-american black vote and pick and and do a respectable number with 0.97

00:07:26.720 hispanics in states like nevada florida and arizona um that it will you know cancel out the losses that

00:07:32.980 the republicans are facing in once uh solidly red states and in suburbs which were trending democrat

00:07:39.480 before trump i mean trump is you know the conclusion of a realignment he gets blamed for republican

00:07:45.540 problems in the suburbs um in places like detroit and in pennsylvania etc the reality is any honest

00:07:52.920 political observer will admit that those areas were trending democrat long before trump we're in the

00:07:58.640 we're at the end of an american political realignment where you know the democratic party despite its

00:08:05.040 rhetoric is basically a gentry liberal party you know the equivalent of york center or whatever

00:08:10.280 um in canada and the republican party now is a uh is a rural party with working class voters um and small

00:08:19.040 business owners so let me ask you then about these cultural dynamics because this is not going to go

00:08:27.500 away i mean i know everyone says that politics gets more and more polarized but we're at the point where

00:08:33.620 people are talking whether it's an exaggeration or not about being on the brink of a civil war of

00:08:39.380 sorts and i don't want to get too uh into this idea of you know conspiratorial theorization but but i do

00:08:46.180 think it's going to be messy whatever happens and especially if trump wins re-election i mean we've

00:08:50.660 already seen in the last uh couple of months riots and looting i i suspect there will be some version

00:08:55.740 of that what happens i mean you know before we get to the answer of what happens to trump let's be honest

00:09:01.780 who created the mess i mean the the reason why we have this strife uh in our country anyways at the

00:09:07.200 moment and these divisions that we're seeing is because of the culture wars that the left has

00:09:11.880 are you know engineered over the past 25 years no no no argument for me on that and the reality is

00:09:17.980 americans no longer share the same values americans no longer conservative and liberal americans or as

00:09:24.520 i like to say conservatives and progressives no longer go to the same churches they no longer shop

00:09:29.160 at the same stores the the the integration of american fabric uh has just disintegrated you know

00:09:35.520 that sort of post-world war ii fabric that bound the country together we no longer share in the

00:09:39.960 same ideals and same values because the political left is trying to fundamentally change uh the values

00:09:45.580 of the values proposition of the united states and i don't think that's a conspiracy theory but what

00:09:50.060 happens if trump after trump look whether trump wins or loses and i i still believe there's a path

00:09:55.820 for him to win but as i said a few minutes ago it's mathematically difficult because he basically has

00:10:02.360 to run the table he can't afford to lose anywhere whereas joe biden can afford to lose a lot of states

00:10:08.680 but there's going to be a civil war you know no pun intended uh within the republican party literally

00:10:14.340 not figuratively um after trump regardless of whether he wins or loses the real question is

00:10:21.680 what is the republican party i don't see how the republican party can return to what it was before trump

00:10:28.820 i think that party is dead i don't see never trumpers the deranged never trumpers particularly the ring

00:10:35.020 leaders uh coming back um i i don't know how they weasel their way back after what they've done

00:10:41.460 um i i again i think we're at the conclusion of a political realignment the real question is

00:10:47.900 how do you keep the trump voters enough of them while still bringing in people that you need

00:10:54.840 that is to say asians indians hispanics to the column uh trump is doing some interesting

00:11:02.500 things despite the media's reportage and they're never going to give him credit uh with hispanic

00:11:08.260 voters in states like florida and nevada and arizona where his numbers are actually pretty

00:11:12.140 respectable of course trump did better with black voters in 2016 than most republican nominees better

00:11:17.760 than mit romney for example never hear that and with women as well another demographic that people 0.98

00:11:23.160 wouldn't have accepted him to get now the black vote is a challenge personally um you know there's

00:11:29.040 probably no politically correct way to say this uh i've always thought republicans spending money

00:11:35.500 on the black vote was a wasted effort i would much rather spend that money on asians and hispanics and 1.00

00:11:41.280 indians indians as in india um of course you know in the united states context i'm like they're in

00:11:46.540 canada when we say indians we mean we mean native americans um i think that's where we have to expand

00:11:52.420 and you know the conservative party in canada you know jason kenney and those sorts of people did

00:11:57.700 some interesting things a few years ago with expanding to those communities and we can do a

00:12:01.860 better job in the republican party with that regardless of whether trump wins or loses but

00:12:07.500 yeah andrew 2024 um i mean the race has already started for 2024 nikki haley is out there she's

00:12:13.640 totally running mike pompeo the secretary of state he's totally running uh you know mike pence thinks

00:12:20.120 he's the heir apparent as well well i don't think he runs if trump loses if trump wins pence totally runs

00:12:26.300 no he goes down with that ship and but that actually brings up another important question of

00:12:30.940 in that sort of never trump trump divide there are very few neutrals i mean there are people that

00:12:36.920 have you know become on one hand trump loyalists and on the other hand were never trumpers and

00:12:41.240 you've got a couple of people that were very critical that have kind of

00:12:44.700 more aligned with trump like your marco rubio types but yeah well nikki haley is a great example there 0.92

00:12:51.640 but in a lot of cases i mean if if there is a what's perceived as a trump implosion it will be

00:12:57.340 very difficult for people who were aligned with trump to rebound but i i don't think that

00:13:03.220 the never trump fantasy is going to happen whereas you know the house of cards comes crashing down and

00:13:08.440 everyone looks to bill crystal and david from as you know being the spiritual leaders who will write

00:13:13.060 all along david from back to canada please can you guys just oh we don't want him you're stuck with

00:13:18.500 you know him and him and rosie barton can just hang out all day long because we're sick of her 1.00

00:13:23.000 we're sick of him you know she she thinks she's on like fox or cnn by her tweets you know about 0.66

00:13:27.960 american politics but no i mean you're totally right i there is no constituency there's no

00:13:32.940 demographic for never trumpism and there wasn't before right before trump there wasn't well no the

00:13:38.760 demographic is uh liberal cable news yeah the reality is that the never trump brand of republicanism

00:13:45.940 lost five out of six elections in which it was the dominant ideology of the republican party

00:13:51.940 the real question is going to be how does somebody you know keep trump voters in the republican column

00:13:59.280 i i do think the question is going to be particularly if trump loses were you with trump or did you actively

00:14:06.100 work against him that is something that republican primary voters and caucus goers in 2024

00:14:11.780 2024 will remember particularly since joe biden's only going to be a one-term president so 2024 is

00:14:18.040 going to either be an open seat or you know if you're a conspiracy theorist kamala harris is going 1.00

00:14:23.220 to be the sitting president at the time um and look i would keep an eye on somebody like christy noem

00:14:28.280 nobody knows who she is yet the governor of south dakota you know she's running two ads an hour on 1.00

00:14:34.680 fox news using south dakota tourism money promoting herself she's campaigning in states like

00:14:40.000 new hampshire right now for trump of course new hampshire you know traditionally holds the

00:14:44.460 the first contest in the presidential nominating campaigns um tom cotton the senator from arkansas

00:14:51.140 is interesting josh holly senator from missouri is interesting um you know there are probably a half

00:14:57.180 dozen dozen potential you know a-listers about there and high b-listers again though the problem is

00:15:03.260 it's not so much who the generic republican nominee after trump is it's whether or not the republican

00:15:09.480 party can compete demographically when you have states like texas and georgia and arizona either

00:15:15.520 blue or trending competitive and that's that's the real challenge right you can't win you can't the

00:15:22.260 the you know it's already a challenge enough this year when states like arizona and georgia and north

00:15:27.700 carolina um you know are competitive if the republican can't count on texas then the republican party

00:15:34.180 might as well file bankruptcy and go out of business because there's no way whatsoever it can win

00:15:39.260 yeah and we've actually talked about that very dynamic on the show in the past with former rnc

00:15:45.360 chairman michael steel about whether uh the the system itself is holding republicans back rather

00:15:51.220 than helping republicans which is what a lot of them still cling to in spite of the math you've just

00:15:56.280 mentioned so i will have to have another discussion about that dennis lennox political commentator and

00:16:01.280 strategist a conservative joins me it's great to talk to you dennis thanks very much for coming on

00:16:05.820 hey and thanks for everything you do andrew pushing back at that horrible canadian media complex that you

00:16:10.940 guys have up there well i appreciate that and thanks for being an american that knows what york center is

00:16:14.960 take care thanks for listening to the andrew lawton show support the program by donating to true north

00:16:20.400 at www.tnc.news

Juno News - October 20, 2020

Presidential Politics and Another Civil War

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