Juno News - The PPC isn't to blame for the Liberal win

00:00:00.000 Welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.

00:00:06.660 This is The Andrew Lawton Show, brought to you by True North.

00:00:12.740 Coming up, the PPC effect in this week's election,

00:00:16.080 the battle for the soul of the Conservative Party,

00:00:18.360 and the perils of identity politics.

00:00:22.180 The Andrew Lawton Show starts right now.

00:00:25.720 Hello and welcome to another edition of The Andrew Lawton Show,

00:00:31.920 Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show,

00:00:33.880 here on Friday, September 24th, 2021,

00:00:37.520 as the Conservative Civil War continues.

00:00:40.340 We'll talk about that and some other things that are happening in the world

00:00:43.760 in the next little while here.

00:00:45.740 But I do want to start with a little bit of an update on where things stand.

00:00:49.420 There hasn't been too much movement in the seat count since Wednesday,

00:00:53.560 but when we talk about these things,

00:00:55.860 it's important to put them in the context of understanding

00:00:58.240 the mail-in ballots just slow everything down.

00:01:02.300 So even if the overall result was something that we knew pretty clearly,

00:01:06.020 it does sometimes change individual ridings.

00:01:08.820 Although, what it's seeming like is like the mail-in ballots

00:01:12.140 only really benefit the left.

00:01:14.460 They're the ones that were really aggressively using the mail-in ballots,

00:01:17.340 so it's not like you went to bed on Thursday night and woke up this morning

00:01:20.820 and find it is a Conservative majority

00:01:23.240 because those mail-in ballots came in and, you know, swung things in Toronto.

00:01:26.980 Didn't work that way if you were hoping it would.

00:01:29.260 Well, I have some oceanfront property in Saskatchewan to sell you.

00:01:32.760 But I do want to talk a little bit about what's happening here.

00:01:35.520 I spent a little bit of time on the show yesterday talking about,

00:01:38.700 actually most of the time on the show yesterday,

00:01:40.800 talking about the push to have Aaron O'Toole recalled,

00:01:44.100 in particular the petition from Bert Chen,

00:01:47.340 who's a member of the Conservative Party's National Council.

00:01:50.160 Well, I want to talk about the other side of that debate today

00:01:53.220 with the creator of the counter-petition, Fraser MacDonald.

00:01:56.440 He'll be joining me very shortly here on the show.

00:02:00.020 But let's delve into some of the numbers here.

00:02:02.360 Because when I'm looking at this, the PPC,

00:02:04.780 and this was the party that we all wanted to watch,

00:02:06.920 the party that in the week leading up to the election,

00:02:09.500 we thought could be a game-changer, might even win a seat or two.

00:02:12.800 The PPC got 5% of the vote.

00:02:16.000 Now, this sounds low.

00:02:17.640 It is tripling the votes they got last time,

00:02:20.520 so certainly a win relative to 2019.

00:02:24.060 And as I can't remember if I mentioned it on this show

00:02:26.060 or if I was being interviewed somewhere else

00:02:27.900 and I mentioned it there or both,

00:02:29.360 but I'll say it again, bear with me.

00:02:31.440 This is an election in which every single leader thinks they won.

00:02:35.780 Justin Trudeau thinks Canadians, you know,

00:02:38.040 returned him to Ottawa because they love what he's doing.

00:02:40.140 Aaron O'Toole thinks Conservatives were winning

00:02:42.660 in the hearts and minds of Canadians.

00:02:45.040 And PPC, Maxine Bernier, they think they won.

00:02:47.780 The Green Party, maybe not.

00:02:49.600 But the Bloc, the NDP, everyone thinks they won.

00:02:52.520 So it's weird.

00:02:53.700 I mean, if everyone can be this happy with their performance

00:02:55.840 in Canadian elections,

00:02:56.920 maybe we don't need to change the party that's in power 0.90

00:02:59.900 because everyone can just feel like they emerged victorious,

00:03:02.580 even if they didn't.

00:03:04.320 And I said this to Candace

00:03:05.800 when we were doing our live election night show.

00:03:08.080 I said, I have this old-fashioned view of things

00:03:10.300 that a win is a win and a loss is a loss.

00:03:12.880 And I don't have much tolerance

00:03:14.540 for trying to spin losses as wins and wins as losses,

00:03:18.140 which is what's happening now.

00:03:19.920 Conservatives say,

00:03:20.680 oh, well, Justin Trudeau didn't get his majority,

00:03:22.300 so he lost.

00:03:23.400 Yeah, but he's still the prime minister.

00:03:25.200 That's the whole point of the election.

00:03:26.960 It's not just an ego boot.

00:03:28.240 I mean, for some people it is,

00:03:29.440 but it's actually about the results.

00:03:31.540 So Justin Trudeau has another mandate

00:03:33.320 and it's very important

00:03:34.740 that opposition parties work together

00:03:36.520 to block that mandate if they aren't happy with it.

00:03:39.500 The problem is that the NDP and block

00:03:41.360 are still likely to go down the road

00:03:43.420 that they were walking down since 2019,

00:03:46.020 which is signing that blank check for Justin Trudeau.

00:03:50.660 So to go back to the PPC for a moment,

00:03:53.200 5%, everyone thought that they were gonna be

00:03:56.180 a bit of a game changer

00:03:57.040 and it's very likely they were a quote unquote spoiler

00:04:00.360 in a couple of ridings

00:04:02.380 in the sense that they may have gotten enough support

00:04:05.560 from Conservatives that Conservatives were not elected.

00:04:08.840 However, and there's a big giant flashing beacon

00:04:13.640 of an asterisk here that I need to draw attention to.

00:04:16.740 One of the big mistakes that a lot of people are making

00:04:19.280 is assuming that a PPC vote

00:04:22.080 would otherwise be a Conservative vote.

00:04:25.300 And this is a big assumption

00:04:26.900 that is well founded in some cases,

00:04:29.500 but not in others.

00:04:32.100 So in 2019, the People's Party was a protest vote

00:04:35.600 against the Conservatives in a lot of ways.

00:04:37.420 And that's not to say that every single PPC voter

00:04:39.680 was a traditional Conservative voter.

00:04:41.980 It's just to say that most were.

00:04:44.640 And there are data to back this up.

00:04:46.440 And anecdotally, it's something that I experienced

00:04:48.460 just in talking to people.

00:04:50.240 2021 is a different ballgame.

00:04:52.160 And again, for the Conservatives

00:04:53.460 to have increased their vote share

00:04:55.420 and for us to also see the PPC go up in support,

00:04:59.760 it's pretty clear that the PPC

00:05:01.800 had to be drawing support from elsewhere.

00:05:04.620 And there are two places where this could have been.

00:05:06.860 Number one is other parties.

00:05:08.760 Number two, traditional non-voters.

00:05:12.060 But that in and of itself

00:05:13.840 is a bit of an interesting thesis

00:05:15.420 because we know that voter turnout

00:05:17.300 by and large is quite low.

00:05:19.540 So it is entirely possible and probable

00:05:24.000 that the PPC was drawing support from the Greens,

00:05:26.740 from the NDP, maybe from the Liberals,

00:05:29.560 and not just from the Conservatives.

00:05:31.700 Now, it depends where.

00:05:32.800 In rural Alberta ridings like,

00:05:35.160 oh, what's a good example here?

00:05:36.840 Like Fort McMurray, Athabasca,

00:05:39.260 or Fort McMurray, Cold Lake, rather,

00:05:40.860 where the PPC got, I think it was like 13% or 14%.

00:05:43.580 Yeah, they were probably drawing from mostly Conservatives

00:05:46.220 because you can see the collapse

00:05:47.600 in some ways of the Conservative vote there.

00:05:50.240 Conservatives still win with, you know,

00:05:51.400 55, 60% of the vote in a lot of these ridings,

00:05:54.480 but compared to 70, 80% in the last election.

00:05:59.240 So a lot of the Conservative vote in rural Alberta,

00:06:02.200 also in rural Ontario,

00:06:03.900 Chatham-Kent, Leamington, Elgin, Middlesex, London,

00:06:06.640 you get support that you could kind of see

00:06:08.880 bleed from the Conservatives to the PPC.

00:06:11.800 But in urban ridings, in elsewhere,

00:06:16.400 in Edmonton, for example,

00:06:17.900 in suburban parts of the country,

00:06:19.800 when the PPC was getting, in some cases,

00:06:22.180 5, 6, 9, 10, maybe more percent of the vote,

00:06:25.700 this is not something you can just say,

00:06:27.380 oh yeah, those are all Conservative votes.

00:06:29.560 Because this is what's happening right now,

00:06:31.200 is you've got some people looking at close races

00:06:33.040 where, oh, the Conservative lost to the Liberal

00:06:34.880 by, you know, only 1,000 votes,

00:06:36.940 and the PPC got 2,000 votes,

00:06:38.600 ergo, they split the vote and ruined it for everyone.

00:06:41.140 First off, no one has put forward a list of these ridings

00:06:44.380 that would actually,

00:06:45.660 assuming that all of them

00:06:47.280 would have been Conservative otherwise,

00:06:48.940 which I don't believe,

00:06:50.540 that wouldn't have made a difference

00:06:52.100 in the overall result of the election.

00:06:54.540 The number of seats that the Conservatives needed

00:06:57.280 to dethrone Justin Trudeau

00:06:59.860 is not something that you can say

00:07:01.780 the PPC took from them

00:07:03.220 in a riding by riding level.

00:07:05.640 Now, here's the part I would actually say

00:07:08.400 the PPC did do some damage on, though.

00:07:10.360 The PPC sucked a lot of the oxygen

00:07:12.280 out of the race

00:07:13.660 on things that the Conservatives

00:07:15.360 could have been leaders on, I think.

00:07:17.400 When it came to standing up for civil liberties,

00:07:19.940 standing out against lockdowns,

00:07:21.540 these are issues for which

00:07:22.680 there is a large coalition,

00:07:24.220 left and right,

00:07:25.780 especially small business owners,

00:07:27.440 and I do think the Conservatives

00:07:29.240 could have taken a leading role in that,

00:07:31.480 whereas the PPC was kind of positioning itself

00:07:33.920 as being the only party set apart

00:07:36.500 from the pack on a lot of these things.

00:07:39.120 And you can say they're right or wrong.

00:07:40.720 I am not into this.

00:07:41.660 I'm trying to be analytical about this

00:07:43.380 rather than making an endorsement.

00:07:45.140 But the whole point is the PPC was saying

00:07:46.980 all the other parties that are over there

00:07:48.860 were over here.

00:07:50.900 And over here had a large enough group

00:07:53.460 because of a combination of people

00:07:55.420 who are against vaccine mandates

00:07:56.980 and vaccine passports,

00:07:58.380 in some cases people who are just against vaccines,

00:08:01.160 other people who are just really anti-lockdown

00:08:03.640 because they've had enough of it all

00:08:05.220 after two years to flatten the curve.

00:08:07.360 So that was one of the big things.

00:08:09.340 And, you know, it's difficult to quantify that support

00:08:11.760 because you don't know, like I mentioned, yet,

00:08:13.980 and we could certainly try to find some data on this,

00:08:16.320 how many PPC voters would have voted Conservative

00:08:18.840 or how many people stayed home

00:08:20.520 because they thought,

00:08:21.360 well, you know, the PPC is not going to win.

00:08:23.380 I don't see a home in the Conservatives

00:08:25.140 or the Liberals, and that's that.

00:08:28.180 So these are some of the questions,

00:08:29.700 and I maintain that the Conservatives

00:08:31.540 needed to have and did not have a strategy

00:08:34.220 to deal with their right flank.

00:08:36.960 Aaron O'Toole was not wanting to engage

00:08:39.280 on the PPC question.

00:08:41.160 In the last week of the campaign,

00:08:42.340 I was actually at a press conference of his.

00:08:44.300 The election was on a Monday.

00:08:45.580 I was at a press conference on the Friday

00:08:47.720 because he was actually in London, where I live.

00:08:50.240 And I went there, and journalists were asking.

00:08:54.040 Journalists were asking about the PPC.

00:08:56.380 And he was saying,

00:08:57.800 oh, Justin Trudeau wants you to vote for smaller parties,

00:09:00.560 but the only way to get rid of him is to vote for me.

00:09:03.420 So he was appealing to that strategic voting mindset

00:09:06.540 the Conservatives have traditionally rejected.

00:09:09.260 But he wouldn't even use the PPC's name.

00:09:12.280 He wouldn't even say the name of the party.

00:09:14.380 And when called on that, he said,

00:09:15.740 oh, I don't want to give them free advertising.

00:09:18.380 But I think it was the last or second last day

00:09:20.920 of the campaign, he had finally changed that.

00:09:22.760 And he actually was telling people directly,

00:09:25.240 don't vote PPC.

00:09:26.440 But you need to have a better reason

00:09:29.900 if you're four weeks into the campaign,

00:09:32.220 almost at the end,

00:09:33.220 and you've lost this large chunk of voters.

00:09:35.900 You need to have a better reason than,

00:09:37.260 well, we have to get rid of Justin Trudeau.

00:09:39.580 And I don't know what the strategy was

00:09:41.600 to deal with that side.

00:09:43.640 I maintain that the Conservatives

00:09:45.700 could have been more anti-lockdown.

00:09:47.840 There was a void in Canadian politics

00:09:49.520 for people to stand up

00:09:50.520 and not be pandemic deniers.

00:09:52.560 They don't need to do that.

00:09:53.400 They could say, yes, it's real,

00:09:54.800 but lockdowns are not the way out of this,

00:09:57.720 which is a position taken very realistically

00:10:00.180 and reasonably by leaders around the world.

00:10:02.460 But they didn't do that.

00:10:04.300 So as a result,

00:10:05.420 if it came down to a pandemic election narrative,

00:10:08.960 it was just about, all right,

00:10:10.180 well, do we vote for these guys

00:10:11.900 that believe the same thing?

00:10:13.080 Or it's these guys who believe

00:10:14.160 the same thing as these guys?

00:10:15.660 And that's not to say

00:10:17.000 that all the parties are identical.

00:10:18.460 I don't believe that.

00:10:19.280 I do believe there are fundamental differences.

00:10:21.140 But on that issue,

00:10:23.080 which was a ballot issue for a lot of people

00:10:25.080 in a pandemic election,

00:10:26.920 there was obviously going to be

00:10:29.800 a need, I think,

00:10:31.640 and an opening for a party

00:10:33.000 that was going to speak up

00:10:34.140 and say something different than the others.

00:10:37.480 And that's where I think

00:10:38.820 the Conservatives could have

00:10:40.000 and certainly should have prepared

00:10:41.280 for attacks against the right.

00:10:43.680 Now, whether that would have changed the election,

00:10:45.640 I'm not sure,

00:10:46.200 but it certainly is relevant

00:10:47.660 to how the Conservatives

00:10:48.880 and how Aaron O'Toole specifically moved forward.

00:10:51.820 Because right now,

00:10:52.480 Aaron O'Toole is fending off

00:10:53.560 mostly attacks from his right in the party.

00:10:56.800 Now, not exclusively.

00:10:57.880 There are some people

00:10:58.580 that are very conservative

00:10:59.640 that are just saying,

00:11:00.800 listen, I like Aaron O'Toole.

00:11:02.000 I respect him.

00:11:02.720 I want him to stick around.

00:11:04.200 I want us to build off of this.

00:11:06.380 But a lot of people

00:11:07.460 that also feel like

00:11:08.620 when they were supporting Andrew Scheer,

00:11:10.300 they got stabbed

00:11:11.220 by the same people

00:11:12.000 that put O'Toole in.

00:11:13.240 So there seems to be

00:11:14.020 a bit of payback.

00:11:14.760 And we spoke about this yesterday

00:11:16.040 with Jonathan Van Maren.

00:11:17.420 But I do want to give some light

00:11:18.980 to both sides of this debate

00:11:20.600 because this is highly relevant

00:11:21.940 to the Conservative movement in Canada,

00:11:24.300 not just the Conservative Party.

00:11:26.380 So I want to bring into the show

00:11:27.600 Fraser MacDonald.

00:11:28.560 He is the creator

00:11:29.240 of the I Support Aaron O'Toole petition,

00:11:31.560 which was launched

00:11:32.220 not long after the one

00:11:33.260 we spoke about yesterday,

00:11:34.240 calling for a recall of Aaron O'Toole.

00:11:37.160 Fraser MacDonald joins me now.

00:11:38.700 Fraser, good to talk to you.

00:11:39.580 Thanks for coming on today.

00:11:41.160 Pleasure, Andrew.

00:11:41.740 Nice to chat as well.

00:11:43.280 So let's,

00:11:44.220 first off,

00:11:44.680 you had admitted off air,

00:11:45.860 and I don't think it's pulling

00:11:47.480 the rug out for money

00:11:48.240 to share this,

00:11:48.980 that this was not meant

00:11:49.860 to be this large,

00:11:51.240 orchestrated,

00:11:51.960 well-funded campaign.

00:11:52.920 It was something

00:11:53.720 that you just did

00:11:54.540 because you wanted to say,

00:11:55.900 yeah, we've got to be back

00:11:56.900 Aaron O'Toole here.

00:11:58.520 Yeah, you're right.

00:11:59.260 You know,

00:11:59.660 I find our party

00:12:01.080 has this terrible

00:12:02.460 addiction

00:12:05.040 to going after its own

00:12:07.000 and, you know,

00:12:08.560 for lack of a better term,

00:12:09.620 knifing party leaders.

00:12:11.040 And, you know,

00:12:11.620 I didn't love the way

00:12:12.500 that Andrew Scheer

00:12:13.060 was treated

00:12:13.480 on the way out the door

00:12:14.340 last time.

00:12:15.480 And I just think,

00:12:16.560 I worry that

00:12:18.220 the disappointment

00:12:19.280 from the results

00:12:20.160 of this election

00:12:20.760 will cause us

00:12:21.420 to make a mistake here.

00:12:23.740 I think Aaron O'Toole

00:12:24.460 should remain the leader

00:12:25.340 and I'm going to

00:12:26.780 put my name out there

00:12:27.760 and ask other people

00:12:28.860 to do the same thing.

00:12:30.260 Is the message

00:12:31.420 that you think

00:12:32.180 Aaron O'Toole

00:12:32.700 should remain the leader

00:12:33.700 because of qualities

00:12:34.940 that Aaron O'Toole embodies

00:12:36.240 or is it more fundamental

00:12:37.660 that you think

00:12:38.520 a conservative leader

00:12:39.340 should get more

00:12:39.960 than just one kick

00:12:40.720 at the can

00:12:41.220 to go up against

00:12:42.460 Justin Trudeau

00:12:43.200 or any opponent?

00:12:44.980 Well, it's both.

00:12:45.760 I mean, first of all,

00:12:46.500 I think Aaron is a good leader.

00:12:48.420 I think he's done a good job.

00:12:49.620 He still has things

00:12:50.720 to improve upon,

00:12:51.600 obviously,

00:12:51.980 because we didn't win.

00:12:53.400 But I think he is

00:12:54.980 the man for the job

00:12:55.820 and I think he will finish

00:12:57.220 the job next time

00:12:58.180 if we're smart enough

00:12:59.660 to keep him around.

00:13:00.860 I don't think anyone

00:13:01.700 automatically deserves

00:13:03.020 a second chance.

00:13:03.940 What I would say is,

00:13:05.020 is there room to grow

00:13:06.220 and do we have evidence

00:13:07.740 that they can get

00:13:09.440 where they need to get to?

00:13:10.600 And I believe we do.

00:13:11.440 There's a double standard

00:13:13.760 that some people

00:13:14.440 have pointed out

00:13:15.140 and this could work

00:13:16.000 in either direction

00:13:16.980 depending on how

00:13:17.620 you argued it.

00:13:18.300 With Andrew Scheer,

00:13:19.440 he brought Trudeau

00:13:20.440 down to a minority,

00:13:21.540 increased the conservative

00:13:22.540 seat count

00:13:23.200 and still had to go.

00:13:24.860 With Aaron O'Toole,

00:13:25.700 we don't really see

00:13:26.580 the gain a lot.

00:13:27.720 Or let me clarify,

00:13:28.540 a lot of people are saying

00:13:29.540 there isn't a gain there

00:13:31.060 that can really be

00:13:32.620 granted to him

00:13:33.540 a sort of a victory.

00:13:34.700 And I'm curious

00:13:35.140 what your thoughts

00:13:35.700 about that line

00:13:36.720 of argument on this was.

00:13:38.000 Yeah, I don't agree

00:13:39.980 with much of that argument.

00:13:42.040 I would say

00:13:42.760 these are completely

00:13:43.700 different elections.

00:13:44.960 And, you know,

00:13:45.460 having been in the trenches

00:13:46.400 on this election,

00:13:47.480 I can really,

00:13:48.500 I can speak from

00:13:49.820 good experience,

00:13:51.140 both, you know,

00:13:52.460 watching how it unfolded

00:13:53.860 behind the scenes,

00:13:54.560 but also as a person

00:13:56.060 who was outdoor knocking

00:13:57.120 pretty much every day

00:13:58.560 for the last month and a half.

00:14:00.280 I think I have

00:14:01.220 a pretty good insight

00:14:01.860 into what people

00:14:02.500 are thinking out there.

00:14:04.000 And, you know,

00:14:05.120 what I would say is

00:14:06.000 there were just

00:14:06.600 some enormous headwinds here.

00:14:08.080 I mean,

00:14:08.500 Justin Trudeau

00:14:09.420 called this election

00:14:10.520 assuming he had

00:14:11.580 a majority in the bag.

00:14:12.820 This was not some

00:14:14.200 neck and neck election

00:14:15.380 at the beginning.

00:14:16.180 He had the upper hand.

00:14:17.280 He had all the levers

00:14:18.100 and he decided to go for it

00:14:19.800 because of what he saw.

00:14:21.340 And so while you might say

00:14:23.140 this is apologism

00:14:24.540 saying that,

00:14:25.440 you know,

00:14:25.880 we came to a stalemate

00:14:27.360 and that's,

00:14:28.380 I don't,

00:14:28.660 I wouldn't call it a win.

00:14:29.580 I would call it

00:14:30.340 doing reasonably well

00:14:31.840 in the circumstances.

00:14:32.640 It was a really tough election.

00:14:34.400 I think in the last election,

00:14:36.460 the PPC was a non-event.

00:14:38.000 And this time they weren't.

00:14:39.380 They,

00:14:39.800 they,

00:14:40.280 there was a lot of angry people

00:14:42.080 that were moving over to them.

00:14:43.800 And I just think

00:14:44.840 the framing of the election

00:14:46.500 and the framing of the issues

00:14:47.700 with the help

00:14:49.080 of the mainstream media

00:14:49.900 was really favorable

00:14:51.040 to Justin Trudeau.

00:14:51.980 and we kept him to a minority

00:14:53.940 and I think we're going to

00:14:56.060 keep him on the ropes here

00:14:57.020 if we let our leader

00:14:57.840 do his thing.

00:14:59.380 But don't you think

00:14:59.860 that Aaron O'Toole

00:15:00.440 has to own a bit

00:15:01.420 of that PPC rise

00:15:02.580 in that he didn't really

00:15:03.520 seem to have a plan

00:15:05.200 for defending against it.

00:15:06.920 And even in the last week

00:15:08.040 of the campaign,

00:15:08.860 wasn't really prepared

00:15:10.020 to address that it was a thing

00:15:11.720 and make an appeal beyond,

00:15:13.680 well,

00:15:13.780 we don't want to split the vote.

00:15:15.820 Well, look,

00:15:16.480 I think that's one

00:15:17.140 of the questions

00:15:17.600 that needs to be answered

00:15:18.620 in a fulsome postmortem

00:15:20.120 that the party needs to do

00:15:21.340 and the leaders agreed

00:15:22.400 to do that.

00:15:23.100 So I would like to see

00:15:24.460 more data on that

00:15:26.320 and also hear from them

00:15:27.500 about why certain decisions

00:15:29.800 were made to address

00:15:31.680 the needs and concerns

00:15:33.240 of those voters.

00:15:34.760 What I would say is

00:15:36.380 there's a certain,

00:15:37.840 right now,

00:15:38.680 vaccines are a lightning rod issue

00:15:40.260 and our party

00:15:42.420 has a wide range of views

00:15:44.980 on how the vaccination issue

00:15:47.240 should be addressed.

00:15:49.140 And Trudeau,

00:15:49.780 throw a grenade

00:15:50.360 right in the middle

00:15:50.920 of our tent.

00:15:52.040 And I think,

00:15:53.440 quite honestly,

00:15:54.360 his strategy

00:15:55.200 was to let us split in half

00:15:57.480 and Aaron O'Toole

00:15:58.760 held most of the

00:16:00.040 conservative movement together,

00:16:01.600 not all of it.

00:16:02.720 And I think we got to figure out

00:16:04.480 how to hold all of it together,

00:16:05.900 but he held most of it together

00:16:07.200 and I don't think

00:16:08.240 we should underplay

00:16:09.120 that accomplishment.

00:16:10.540 Well,

00:16:10.720 the other thing I would say

00:16:11.420 is, you know,

00:16:12.280 we fell short

00:16:14.120 in the overall result

00:16:15.580 and we fell short

00:16:16.620 in certain key regions,

00:16:17.920 but, you know,

00:16:19.000 we went up in Ontario,

00:16:20.100 we went up in Quebec

00:16:20.880 and I think as the leader

00:16:22.740 pointed out,

00:16:23.280 I think there was 15 or 20 seats

00:16:25.500 that are within 2,000 votes.

00:16:27.120 So we are right there

00:16:28.660 knocking on the door

00:16:29.620 and I think,

00:16:31.500 you know,

00:16:32.140 the economic trouble

00:16:33.540 that's coming for Trudeau

00:16:34.840 and I think inevitably

00:16:36.180 with Liberals,

00:16:37.100 the accountability

00:16:38.380 and ethics issues

00:16:39.700 that are going to

00:16:40.200 inevitably arise

00:16:41.060 are going to keep them

00:16:42.240 on the ropes.

00:16:42.760 And so the last thing

00:16:44.180 we want to do

00:16:45.040 as Conservatives

00:16:45.760 who are concerned

00:16:46.500 with governing

00:16:47.180 is head into

00:16:48.920 a party civil war

00:16:50.060 that's going to be divisive

00:16:51.280 and let Trudeau

00:16:52.000 off the mat.

00:16:53.040 Let's keep them 1.00

00:16:53.540 on the ropes,

00:16:54.200 keep fighting them.

00:16:55.600 Carbon tax

00:16:56.620 perceived as a flip-flop,

00:16:58.380 firearms flip-flop

00:16:59.780 in the middle

00:17:00.120 of the campaign,

00:17:01.060 conscience rights.

00:17:02.160 These are three issues

00:17:03.640 that have not sat well

00:17:05.140 with a lot of people

00:17:06.020 in the base.

00:17:06.920 The carbon tax one

00:17:08.100 is one of the items

00:17:09.240 listed in the initial petition

00:17:11.000 to recall Aaron O'Toole,

00:17:12.880 the one put forward

00:17:13.580 by National Councilor

00:17:14.880 Bert Chen.

00:17:15.740 When you have this frustration

00:17:17.000 from groups

00:17:17.780 that do make up

00:17:18.640 a significant part

00:17:19.440 of the Conservative base

00:17:20.380 and in general

00:17:21.240 just from Conservatives,

00:17:22.560 how does Aaron O'Toole

00:17:23.580 hold on to his leadership?

00:17:26.240 How does he hold on

00:17:26.940 to his legitimacy

00:17:27.600 when you have people

00:17:28.460 pointing to a few,

00:17:29.640 not just a general frustration

00:17:31.080 with losing,

00:17:31.820 but a few very specific things

00:17:33.380 that they feel

00:17:34.380 amounted to betrayals?

00:17:36.760 Well, I think you,

00:17:38.320 at the end of the day,

00:17:38.880 you have to trust

00:17:39.580 that the leadership team

00:17:40.980 is going to put together

00:17:41.920 a plan that can appeal broadly

00:17:43.480 to all Canadians

00:17:44.580 and get us in a position

00:17:46.480 to win a majority government.

00:17:48.080 This is not just about

00:17:48.900 eking out a win.

00:17:49.740 This is about getting

00:17:50.480 to that 38, 40 percent

00:17:52.120 that we need

00:17:52.760 to win a majority government.

00:17:54.280 And the reality is

00:17:55.240 Canadians want

00:17:56.060 a serious,

00:17:56.820 credible climate change plan.

00:17:58.380 And I know that there are

00:17:59.460 some in our party

00:18:00.460 and our movement

00:18:00.960 that don't agree with that.

00:18:03.260 And I don't know

00:18:05.180 what to tell them

00:18:05.700 other than, you know,

00:18:06.660 the voters have been

00:18:07.740 very clear on that issue.

00:18:09.380 And I think we've found

00:18:10.840 a way to,

00:18:12.120 in a way that's fair

00:18:12.960 to Canadians

00:18:13.440 and is not punishing

00:18:14.380 rural Canadians.

00:18:16.760 And I think it's an improvement

00:18:18.420 on the Liberal plan.

00:18:20.300 And we should embrace

00:18:23.320 the type of party leader

00:18:24.260 that's willing to change

00:18:25.580 the party

00:18:25.920 and move it forward.

00:18:26.600 But, I mean,

00:18:28.280 changing the party, though,

00:18:29.460 those terms will not

00:18:30.600 sit well on their own

00:18:31.580 with people

00:18:32.020 because you've got

00:18:32.620 a lot of members

00:18:33.240 of the Conservative base

00:18:34.140 that say, okay, you know,

00:18:35.460 yeah, we want to win

00:18:36.240 and we obviously want

00:18:36.920 to expand the base

00:18:37.840 and respect that

00:18:38.800 we're a big blue tent,

00:18:39.740 but they don't want

00:18:40.320 the party to be changed

00:18:41.420 in a way that leaves

00:18:42.360 them out of it.

00:18:45.220 Well, and frankly,

00:18:47.200 I think the polling

00:18:48.280 would show that

00:18:48.960 that's not what happened.

00:18:50.420 I think people,

00:18:51.540 by and large,

00:18:52.660 of a Conservative persuasion

00:18:54.400 may have not loved

00:18:55.680 every element of the plan,

00:18:57.380 but still voted Conservative.

00:18:58.920 I think the Conservative base

00:18:59.980 is still intact.

00:19:00.760 We won the popular vote.

00:19:03.040 You know, voter turnout

00:19:04.220 was down significantly,

00:19:05.360 so it's hard to look

00:19:06.380 at raw vote numbers.

00:19:07.920 But we won the popular vote

00:19:09.500 and we increased

00:19:11.340 our percentage of the vote

00:19:12.740 in Ontario and Quebec.

00:19:14.460 So, you know,

00:19:15.400 it was a tough election

00:19:16.660 and we wanted to win

00:19:18.500 and it's always going

00:19:20.620 to be disappointing

00:19:21.220 when we don't.

00:19:22.280 But I don't think

00:19:23.040 it's fair to say

00:19:23.700 that that's, you know,

00:19:25.080 a lightning rod issue

00:19:25.960 that caused us to lose.

00:19:27.920 Since you brought up

00:19:28.440 just being at the doors

00:19:29.660 and canvassing

00:19:30.440 with your candidate

00:19:31.360 for the campaign you managed,

00:19:32.940 what were the biggest reasons

00:19:34.620 or what was the biggest reason

00:19:35.840 given to you

00:19:36.400 by non-supporters,

00:19:38.000 people who said,

00:19:38.740 yeah, I'm not voting for you?

00:19:39.860 What was it that you saw

00:19:41.260 on the ground

00:19:41.720 wasn't resonating with people?

00:19:44.160 I think the challenge

00:19:45.660 the Conservative Party has

00:19:47.200 and that Aaron O'Toole's

00:19:49.880 got to figure out

00:19:50.780 an answer to

00:19:51.460 is they just,

00:19:53.400 there are certain groups

00:19:54.660 that just don't trust us yet.

00:19:56.260 We haven't earned

00:19:56.880 their support.

00:19:57.720 We're close.

00:19:58.740 We were in the mix

00:19:59.560 and there were all kinds of,

00:20:00.520 you know,

00:20:00.720 the undecided voter

00:20:01.960 and I think in the end

00:20:03.120 too many of them

00:20:04.640 swung back to the Liberals.

00:20:06.400 And what I would say is,

00:20:07.940 you know,

00:20:08.260 Aaron O'Toole was

00:20:09.360 elected leader of the party

00:20:11.480 only a year before

00:20:12.540 the rate dropped

00:20:13.260 and the whole year

00:20:14.920 he was in

00:20:15.520 was during a pandemic,

00:20:16.680 much of it

00:20:17.080 which was full lockdown.

00:20:18.440 So his ability

00:20:20.300 to introduce himself

00:20:21.480 to Canadians

00:20:22.060 and get his message out

00:20:23.220 and show people

00:20:24.720 what the party

00:20:25.520 is all about

00:20:26.100 under Aaron O'Toole's

00:20:26.920 leadership

00:20:27.220 was very limited.

00:20:28.640 And I think

00:20:29.000 considering all of that stuff,

00:20:30.360 he actually did a great job

00:20:31.640 and once people

00:20:32.700 got to know him

00:20:33.240 in the election,

00:20:34.220 all of his numbers

00:20:34.900 started to go up.

00:20:36.120 So I think more of that

00:20:38.080 and, you know,

00:20:39.180 God willing,

00:20:40.100 less lockdown society

00:20:41.800 over the next year or two

00:20:43.020 will give him the runway

00:20:44.560 to show what he's all about.

00:20:45.900 And I think by and large

00:20:47.080 Canadians have liked it so far

00:20:48.900 and will like him

00:20:50.140 and warm up

00:20:50.620 and continue to warm up to him.

00:20:52.440 So I think a lot of it

00:20:53.580 is just more time

00:20:54.600 and more getting people

00:20:56.200 comfortable with

00:20:57.260 what we're all about.

00:20:58.600 I think people held their nose

00:21:01.180 to vote for Trudeau this time

00:21:02.400 because they weren't quite there

00:21:03.700 with Conservatives

00:21:04.520 and we need to

00:21:06.660 keep getting out there

00:21:07.480 and showing them

00:21:08.000 that we are the best party

00:21:09.040 and for their interests

00:21:11.660 and that we've got their back.

00:21:14.260 Yeah, unfamiliarity,

00:21:15.640 tends to be a big hurdle

00:21:17.060 for Conservatives to overcome

00:21:18.640 and you can look at

00:21:19.940 a number of reasons for that.

00:21:21.180 Mainstream media's branding

00:21:22.340 and maligning of Conservatives

00:21:23.840 being probably pretty high

00:21:24.980 up on that list.

00:21:25.660 So a very valid point.

00:21:27.000 The petition at change.org.

00:21:28.760 I support Aaron O'Toole,

00:21:30.440 Fraser MacDonald,

00:21:31.260 Conservative activist

00:21:32.100 and former campaign manager

00:21:33.880 joining me now.

00:21:34.900 Fraser, good to talk to you.

00:21:35.680 Thanks for coming on.

00:21:37.020 Appreciate it, Andrew.

00:21:37.780 Nice to see you.

00:21:39.000 That was Fraser MacDonald.

00:21:40.900 And I should say,

00:21:41.980 it's not just a couple of activists

00:21:44.100 and a national councillor.

00:21:45.660 There's even at least one caucus member

00:21:47.660 who seems very frustrated

00:21:50.220 with Aaron O'Toole.

00:21:51.760 Two reporters,

00:21:52.820 Mercedes Stevenson with Global

00:21:54.460 and John Paul Tasker with CBC,

00:21:57.360 on the same evening last night

00:21:59.440 had shared eerily similar conversations

00:22:02.320 they said they had

00:22:03.200 with an unnamed Conservative caucus member

00:22:05.940 who proactively reached out to them

00:22:08.680 and I'll quote from

00:22:10.280 John Paul Tasker's story here.

00:22:11.840 He campaigned as a liberal.

00:22:13.000 He wasn't even liberal light.

00:22:14.360 He campaigned as a liberal

00:22:15.580 with no input from caucus

00:22:18.480 or the party or anyone else

00:22:20.520 and it simply didn't pay off.

00:22:23.200 And this candidate said,

00:22:24.880 I didn't even know

00:22:26.080 what we were running on

00:22:27.360 until I saw him on TV.

00:22:29.160 He took a risk

00:22:29.860 and it didn't pay off.

00:22:31.200 Now, this is again

00:22:32.440 an unnamed Conservative caucus member,

00:22:34.960 presumably a re-elected

00:22:36.420 member of Parliament.

00:22:37.700 But the reality is

00:22:38.800 frustration coming

00:22:39.780 from inside the House.

00:22:40.900 Now, I don't know

00:22:41.340 how many people are here.

00:22:42.820 Other caucus members,

00:22:43.920 including very high profile ones,

00:22:45.720 have spoken out

00:22:46.460 in support of Aaron O'Toole,

00:22:48.420 including some social Conservatives.

00:22:50.780 Leslyn Lewis put out

00:22:51.800 a lengthy statement

00:22:52.580 in which she said that

00:22:53.660 she wants Aaron O'Toole 0.84

00:22:55.000 to hang around.

00:22:55.760 She said she didn't like

00:22:56.660 what the party did to Andrew Scheer

00:22:58.120 and she doesn't want it

00:22:59.360 to repeat the mistake

00:23:00.540 with Aaron O'Toole.

00:23:01.980 Garnet Jenis,

00:23:02.720 another very prominent

00:23:03.800 social Conservative,

00:23:04.740 he's been on this show

00:23:05.640 numerous times,

00:23:06.800 has said that the party

00:23:08.200 needs to stand

00:23:09.100 behind Aaron O'Toole.

00:23:11.160 He says Conservatives

00:23:12.040 should stay united,

00:23:13.260 defend our principles,

00:23:14.440 and remain focused

00:23:15.280 on giving Canadians

00:23:16.300 better government.

00:23:17.440 We must learn

00:23:18.100 the lessons of the election,

00:23:19.620 share constructive feedback,

00:23:21.280 and remain united

00:23:22.640 behind Aaron O'Toole.

00:23:24.120 And also,

00:23:25.020 Michelle Rempel,

00:23:25.660 now not a social Conservative,

00:23:26.940 but again,

00:23:27.440 someone from a different

00:23:28.160 aspect of the party,

00:23:29.680 someone from Alberta,

00:23:30.520 who says

00:23:31.480 we should stay united.

00:23:33.260 Now,

00:23:33.580 I note that

00:23:34.160 Michelle Rempel-Garner's

00:23:35.540 comments didn't come across

00:23:37.900 as a ringing endorsement

00:23:39.500 of Aaron O'Toole specifically,

00:23:41.140 but she did speak out

00:23:43.100 very firmly

00:23:44.280 in support of the idea

00:23:45.640 of unity

00:23:46.220 and continuity.

00:23:47.960 And I actually want to read this

00:23:49.040 because I don't want you to feel

00:23:50.240 or I don't want to be

00:23:51.080 misrepresenting it.

00:23:52.620 She said,

00:23:53.020 six weeks ago,

00:23:53.860 everyone in the country

00:23:54.600 said the Conservatives

00:23:55.580 would be wiped out.

00:23:56.820 Instead,

00:23:57.440 we held and built

00:23:58.600 we have a younger caucus

00:24:00.080 with more women 0.95

00:24:00.880 and regional diversity,

00:24:02.700 a renewed mandate

00:24:03.840 to work in Parliament

00:24:05.060 and address challenges.

00:24:06.580 She says she's looking forward

00:24:07.900 to contributing

00:24:08.520 to a review

00:24:09.300 of the party's campaign.

00:24:10.680 There are things

00:24:11.140 that need to change,

00:24:12.220 but a lot to build on.

00:24:13.680 And she says,

00:24:14.580 I take Aaron O'Toole

00:24:15.600 at his word

00:24:16.080 that he will do this

00:24:16.920 and I will contribute

00:24:18.260 to that process.

00:24:19.200 And she talks about

00:24:20.040 turmoil following 2019,

00:24:22.260 the loss of goodwill,

00:24:23.400 which had to be rebuilt

00:24:24.220 during a pandemic.

00:24:25.320 And she says,

00:24:26.040 I'd prefer

00:24:26.740 to address concerns,

00:24:28.700 move forward

00:24:29.420 and show Canadian stability

00:24:31.360 in a ready-to-govern party

00:24:33.320 than doing that again.

00:24:35.800 So that's her perspective

00:24:37.160 on this.

00:24:37.740 That again,

00:24:38.380 I'm not saying

00:24:38.980 she's undermining Aaron O'Toole,

00:24:40.480 but she's not saying

00:24:41.480 Aaron O'Toole is great,

00:24:42.300 rah, rah, rah.

00:24:42.840 She's just saying,

00:24:43.620 yeah,

00:24:43.900 we did some good stuff.

00:24:45.360 We've got to build on it.

00:24:46.400 And he says he's going

00:24:47.220 to review things,

00:24:47.980 which he does say.

00:24:48.780 So I believe him

00:24:50.180 and I take him

00:24:50.700 at his word

00:24:51.180 and let's do that.

00:24:52.160 So we've got different aspects

00:24:54.240 of the party here,

00:24:55.420 social conservatives,

00:24:57.100 others,

00:24:58.000 Westerners

00:24:58.760 that are saying,

00:24:59.640 yeah,

00:24:59.880 we've got to hold the line.

00:25:01.280 The question will be

00:25:02.400 who wants to speak up vocally

00:25:04.160 from within the caucus

00:25:05.380 to say Aaron O'Toole

00:25:07.000 has to go.

00:25:08.280 Because right now,

00:25:09.160 yeah,

00:25:09.320 there's this change.org petition,

00:25:11.020 but there isn't really anyone

00:25:12.780 that's leading the charge

00:25:14.000 saying,

00:25:14.800 yeah,

00:25:14.960 we've got to unseat Aaron O'Toole.

00:25:16.780 And part of the reason

00:25:17.720 for that

00:25:18.200 is that the people

00:25:19.320 that stand to gain from that

00:25:20.860 are those who would run

00:25:21.900 for leadership

00:25:22.480 in his absence.

00:25:24.520 But those people

00:25:25.500 don't want to have to shoulder

00:25:26.760 the backstabbing,

00:25:28.260 treasonous allegations

00:25:29.560 that will come

00:25:30.660 if they're the ones

00:25:31.320 that stick the knife in.

00:25:32.200 So I think everyone

00:25:32.840 who wants O'Toole gone

00:25:34.040 is probably waiting

00:25:35.720 for someone else

00:25:36.820 to make the first move

00:25:38.400 so that they can jump in.

00:25:39.600 And even with Andrew Scheer,

00:25:40.940 a lot of the calls

00:25:41.680 were not coming

00:25:42.300 from within caucus.

00:25:43.160 They were coming

00:25:43.560 from groups

00:25:44.100 outside of caucus

00:25:45.480 within the conservative movement.

00:25:46.980 And then you had

00:25:48.100 that steady leak

00:25:49.180 of stories

00:25:49.860 like expenses

00:25:50.980 and all that other stuff

00:25:52.220 that were really just there

00:25:53.680 to try to just force him out.

00:25:55.500 And just to go back

00:25:56.240 to a recurring theme

00:25:57.260 here on the show

00:25:57.920 for a moment

00:25:58.460 about the media,

00:25:59.360 you can do all you want

00:26:00.920 to bend over backwards

00:26:02.180 and say,

00:26:03.100 no, no, no,

00:26:03.480 we're diverse,

00:26:04.260 we're this and this

00:26:05.000 and we're not

00:26:05.440 your father's conservative party.

00:26:07.320 The media is not interested

00:26:09.640 in anything like that.

00:26:11.220 Another John Paul Tasker story

00:26:13.140 here from CBC.

00:26:14.400 After Monday's vote,

00:26:15.620 the federal conservative caucus

00:26:16.940 will be 95% white.

00:26:19.700 And one of the reasons

00:26:20.680 for this is that

00:26:21.660 some of the visible minorities

00:26:22.960 who are in the conservative caucus

00:26:24.380 have been ousted

00:26:25.900 like Alice Wong

00:26:27.120 and Kenny Chu

00:26:28.160 and Jag Sahota.

00:26:29.940 And Kenny Chu

00:26:30.720 is an interesting one

00:26:31.520 to watch here

00:26:32.100 because he has been

00:26:33.260 speaking out against

00:26:34.280 what he believes

00:26:35.360 was Chinese interference.

00:26:37.720 The conservatives

00:26:38.460 have lost a lot

00:26:39.820 of very heavily

00:26:40.460 Chinese ridings 0.79

00:26:41.560 that they've had.

00:26:42.420 And there is

00:26:44.000 some speculation so far

00:26:45.560 that this might be

00:26:47.120 because of influence campaigns

00:26:48.560 that could be linked back

00:26:50.100 to the Chinese Communist Party.

00:26:51.420 Now, again,

00:26:52.140 something to look into

00:26:53.380 when you see anomalies

00:26:54.960 in ethnically Chinese ridings

00:26:56.680 that have traditionally

00:26:57.740 been strong ridings

00:26:58.700 for conservatives.

00:27:00.060 I think it's something

00:27:01.020 to look into.

00:27:02.020 But I mean,

00:27:02.960 this accusation

00:27:03.880 that, oh,

00:27:04.120 the conservative caucus

00:27:04.980 is so white now.

00:27:06.500 I mean, sure,

00:27:07.200 diversity is a great thing

00:27:08.320 to have.

00:27:08.800 I don't think it's something

00:27:09.740 that you need to put above

00:27:10.760 other areas of interest

00:27:12.880 and focus,

00:27:13.520 which is why conservatives

00:27:14.640 mocked Justin Trudeau's

00:27:16.560 gender parity cabinet.

00:27:17.680 Not because they're against

00:27:18.980 having half a cabinet

00:27:20.180 made of women,

00:27:21.080 but because everyone

00:27:22.320 should be chosen

00:27:23.000 based on whether

00:27:23.960 they are the best

00:27:24.720 for the job.

00:27:25.580 But it's entirely impossible.

00:27:28.860 Even if you have

00:27:29.740 50% minorities,

00:27:31.340 50% women, 1.00

00:27:32.540 whatever the breakdown is

00:27:33.560 of candidates running,

00:27:35.280 you don't get to choose

00:27:36.520 who Canadians vote for.

00:27:38.140 So I'm not clear

00:27:40.480 what the point is

00:27:41.320 of trying to look

00:27:41.840 at the conservatives

00:27:42.400 right now and say,

00:27:43.180 oh, well,

00:27:43.540 they have too many

00:27:44.260 white people.

00:27:45.000 Are they saying

00:27:45.540 that the voters

00:27:46.060 should have reelected

00:27:47.080 all the conservative

00:27:47.940 minority candidates?

00:27:49.320 Is that the implication?

00:27:50.680 I'm sure the conservatives

00:27:51.680 would love that.

00:27:52.280 Yeah, we should have

00:27:53.000 more seats just because

00:27:54.060 then our caucus

00:27:55.000 would be more diverse.

00:27:56.400 But it's just ridiculous here

00:27:58.060 that you can go down

00:27:59.300 this road time and time again.

00:28:00.960 No matter what

00:28:01.800 the conservatives do,

00:28:03.100 the narrative is the same.

00:28:05.860 The narrative is the same.

00:28:06.980 It doesn't matter

00:28:07.460 what they say or do.

00:28:08.460 The story's already written.

00:28:09.820 Yeah, I mean,

00:28:10.140 it's based on the premise

00:28:11.260 that conservatives are racist.

00:28:13.500 That's the thrust

00:28:14.360 of the story here.

00:28:15.360 And it doesn't matter

00:28:15.880 if it's true or not.

00:28:16.960 All they'll do is

00:28:17.840 throw up a lot of these stats

00:28:19.080 and say, oh, well,

00:28:19.900 they're 95% white

00:28:21.000 in the conservative caucus.

00:28:22.120 Okay, so tell the voters

00:28:24.020 they made a mistake

00:28:24.800 or is the conservative

00:28:26.040 party to blame?

00:28:26.840 They fielded minority candidates

00:28:28.380 and obviously they all

00:28:29.480 wanted to win.

00:28:30.320 So, but this is the problem

00:28:31.860 with identity politics.

00:28:32.960 Eventually you stop talking

00:28:34.040 about anything else

00:28:34.700 that matters

00:28:35.320 and it all just becomes

00:28:36.640 this one-upsmanship

00:28:37.520 about these numbers

00:28:38.920 and stats that don't

00:28:39.780 actually have to do

00:28:40.720 with competence

00:28:41.760 in the political sphere.

00:28:44.080 We've got to end things there.

00:28:46.160 My thanks to all of you

00:28:47.060 for tuning into the program today.

00:28:48.980 Lots more of Canada's 0.99

00:28:50.060 most irreverent talk show

00:28:51.220 next week.

00:28:51.980 Thank you, God bless,

00:28:52.920 and good day to you all.

00:28:53.920 Thanks for listening

00:28:54.540 to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:28:55.960 Support the program

00:28:56.780 by donating to True North

00:28:58.020 at www.tnc.news.

00:29:01.180 The Andrew Lawton Show.

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Juno News - September 24, 2021

The PPC isn't to blame for the Liberal win

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