Juno News - The PPC tipped the scales towards the Liberals in a few key Ontario ridings

00:00:00.000 A handful of Ontario ridings saw the PPC tip the scales towards the Liberals, costing the

00:00:11.120 Conservatives' wins. Alberta's UCP government is making it far easier to trigger referendums,

00:00:17.480 including on whether Alberta will separate from Canada. According to an Abacus data poll,

00:00:22.980 voters over the age of 60 prioritized how parties would handle Trump not improving the cost of

00:00:28.260 living in Canada. Hello Canada, it's Thursday, May 1st, and this is the True North Daily Brief.

00:00:33.360 I'm Isaac Lamoureux. And I'm Jeff Knight. We've got you covered with all the news you need to know.

00:00:38.620 Let's discuss the top stories of the day and the True North exclusives you won't hear anywhere else.

00:00:46.940 In Ontario, the People's Party of Canada played a decisive role in a handful of tightly contested

00:00:53.120 ridings, where their share of the vote may have cost the Conservatives potential victories or

00:00:58.020 even forced unexpected ties. The conflict between voting based on conviction and voting strategically

00:01:04.240 was a key theme of this election. While many progressive voters supported the Liberals to

00:01:09.640 block a potential Conservative government, PPC supporters largely stuck with their party,

00:01:15.180 even in close races where their votes might have changed the outcome. One of the clearest examples

00:01:20.200 came in Brampton East, where the PPC secured 4.7% of the vote. The Conservatives trailed the Liberals by

00:01:27.160 just 3.9%, suggesting that without the PPC presence, the Conservatives might have overtaken

00:01:33.380 the Liberals. In Kitchener-Conestoga, the PPC received 1.3% of the vote. The Liberal candidate

00:01:39.980 edged out a win with 48.2%, narrowly beating the Conservatives who earned 47.6%. Again, the PPC's

00:01:48.560 small share of the vote appears to have influenced the outcome. Meanwhile, in Brampton North-Caledon,

00:01:53.500 a highly competitive race ended in a rare statistical tie between the Conservatives and Liberals,

00:01:59.160 each taking 48.1% of the vote. The PPC took 3.9%, more than enough to have broken the deadlock

00:02:06.460 in the Conservatives' favour. So Jeff, what's the path forward for Conservative leader Pierre

00:02:11.440 Polyevre? Has he been trying to shore up support to stay on as leader?

00:02:15.720 Yeah, Isaac, Pierre Polyevre's path forward after the election loss is going to centre on consolidating

00:02:21.180 support within his party and addressing the vote-splitting that cost them key ridings.

00:02:26.320 He's already taking steps to shore up his leadership. In his concession speech, Polyevre made

00:02:30.480 it clear he intends to stay on, vowing to remain a champion for his supporters and emphasising the

00:02:35.520 party's gains, 41.4% of the vote, the highest since 1988 and over 20 new seats. To solidify his

00:02:42.040 position, he's likely planning to hold meetings within his caucus soon to rally support and ensure

00:02:46.780 party unity. He may also start reaching out to grassroots members through town halls and swing

00:02:51.440 ridings like Brampton and Kitchener, focusing on affordability and housing, issues where

00:02:55.560 Conservatives led Liberals by 10 points in the Abacus data poll. The vote-splitting by the People's

00:02:59.920 Party of Canada, as seen in ridings like Brampton East and Kitchener-Conestoga, remains a major hurdle.

00:03:05.040 Polyevre is expected to address this by appealing directly to PPC voters, emphasising shared values

00:03:10.000 like reducing government overreach. He might soon announce a policy review to better reflect the

00:03:14.080 priorities of all right-leaning Canadians, possibly echoing PPC-aligned ideas like lower

00:03:18.660 taxes and fewer regulations, which were essential to their 2021 platform. As the new leader of the

00:03:23.800 opposition, Polyevre will likely pledge to hold Mark Carney's minority government accountable,

00:03:28.640 focusing on fighting against Liberal NDP policies, particularly on trade deals with the U.S. amid

00:03:33.860 Trump's tariff threats. Polyevre's strategy will be to unify the right, maintain his leadership grip,

00:03:39.300 and position the Conservatives for a stronger showing in the next election, which could come quickly

00:03:43.740 given the fragility of Carney's 169-seat minority.

00:03:51.360 Alberta's united Conservative government has dramatically lowered the bar for triggering a

00:03:55.600 referendum, making it far easier for citizens to force a province-wide vote on major issues,

00:04:01.080 including Alberta's relationship with Canada. Alberta Premier Daniel Smith and Justice Minister

00:04:05.940 Mickey A. Murray announced the Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025, Bill 54, this week. The proposed

00:04:13.500 amendments were among a suite of changes to, quote, protect democracy, deliver fair and open

00:04:18.520 elections, and increase confidence in every vote cast. Smith said, quote, we are expanding

00:04:24.360 opportunities for Albertans to be involved in direct democracy by making changes to the threshold

00:04:29.200 needed for successful citizens' initiatives. Democracy is the foundation of our freedoms and the

00:04:34.120 source of legitimacy for governments at every level. It must be protected, strengthened, and defended.

00:04:39.140 The legislation drops the required number of petition signatures from 600,000 to just 177,000 based on

00:04:45.760 10% of ballots cast in the last general election. It also extends the time to collect signatures from

00:04:51.360 90 to 120 days, significantly improving the odds for referendum campaigns to succeed. The previous 600,000

00:04:58.280 signature estimate was based on 20% of all registered electors across Alberta. Under the revised law,

00:05:03.820 the threshold is now 10% of those who voted in the last general election, significantly increasing the

00:05:09.320 chances of a successful referendum. Other changes in the legislation include banning electronic tabulators

00:05:14.780 and automated voting machines, requiring votes to be hand-counted, removing vouching at voting stations,

00:05:22.140 updating the Recall Act by lowering the threshold and extending the time frame to collect signatures,

00:05:26.980 and more. The Recall Act formally required that a petition be signed by at least 40% of all registered

00:05:33.420 electors in the riding. Now, the threshold has been changed to 60% of the total electors who voted in

00:05:38.960 the electoral district's most recent election. The previous recall petition launched against Calgary

00:05:44.100 Mayor Jody Gondek received 72,271 signatures, well below the 514,284 signatures required at the time.

00:05:53.720 Per the new regulations, 235,854 signatures would have been required to Recall Gondek.

00:06:01.080 A. Murray said the changes follow a review of the province's democratic process legislation.

00:06:06.560 He added that the review highlighted opportunities to strengthen the democratic process in provincial

00:06:11.180 elections, Senate elections, referendums, and citizen initiative petitions. So Isaac, are these new

00:06:17.080 targets a more reasonable goal? What sort of issues did the past Recall referendum in Calgary run into?

00:06:22.480 Yeah, Jeff, not only are these new targets a more reasonable goal, but they are an attainable one.

00:06:28.340 I mean, for the petition to initiate a referendum on separation, for example, we're talking about a

00:06:33.200 reduction, as you said, from 600,000 to around 177,000, which is a shocking 70% decrease. And for

00:06:41.280 the recall petition, of course, this would decrease situationally based on the riding, for example.

00:06:45.720 Like you mentioned about the Gondek recall petition, this would fall from 514,284 to 235,854 based on the

00:06:55.620 same numbers, which is a 54% decrease. So these are huge differences that we're talking about here.

00:07:00.920 But just to quickly touch on the separation referendum, Jeff, as an Albertan, this is

00:07:07.420 beginning to become a movement unlike one I've seen in my lifetime. For example, when I started

00:07:12.740 writing the article on Wednesday morning, it had around 80,000 people registered. And then by the

00:07:18.260 early afternoon, that number rose to nearly 100,000. And this was just from 60,000 signatures the day

00:07:24.020 before, a change.org petition that calls for the same thing has over 200,000 signatures. But I should

00:07:31.380 mention that the Alberta Prosperity Project petition is a much better gauge accuracy wise, because they

00:07:36.120 actually take your information and are planning to collect the signatures and present them to

00:07:40.300 Elections Canada to initiate a referendum. In fact, I'm hearing predictions that the number of signatures

00:07:46.340 for the project could surpass 200,000 by the end of the week. But of course, we'll have to wait and see

00:07:52.220 either way, the train is moving very, very fast, and Albertans could see a referendum soon. As for the

00:07:58.380 previous Gondek recall issues, there were many issues that petitioner Landon Johnston, who launched

00:08:03.380 the campaign, told me back in April of last year. He said, for example, that there were issues with

00:08:08.280 campaign advertising and financing, both of which also saw changes in Bill 54. And Johnston pledged to

00:08:15.280 work with Smith directly, and she promised a year ago to review the legislation, and here we are getting

00:08:20.420 it now. Some of the initial recommendations from Johnston were to extend the campaign to 90 days

00:08:25.420 and to base the requirement on voters in the last election. And both of those things are obviously

00:08:30.800 now realities.

00:08:35.360 As Canadians reflect on the 2025 election results that delivered Mark Carney's Liberals a minority

00:08:40.880 government, polls show that Canadian voters over the age of 60 voted on the question of dealing with

00:08:46.500 U.S. President Donald Trump not making Canada a better place to live. A pre-election poll published

00:08:52.800 by Abacus Data shows that the most important factor to voters aged 60 and above in determining

00:08:58.100 their voting preference was the ability of the parties in dealing with Trump. All of the other age 0.66

00:09:02.980 demographics measured primarily voted to reduce the cost of living, a secondary priority for the 60-plus

00:09:09.100 demographic. In contrast, the 18 to 29-year-old demographic's primary concern was reducing the cost of

00:09:15.500 living, followed by making housing more affordable, making Canada a better place to live, and growing

00:09:19.840 the economy. Dealing with Trump only ranked as the fourth most important factor for them in voting.

00:09:25.720 Abacus's poll found that Canadians say Carney and the Liberal Party is best positioned to handle Trump

00:09:30.560 and the impact of his decisions, with 45% indicating support for the Liberals, while Pierre Polievre's

00:09:35.760 Conservative reached 34%. Polievre's Conservative held a 10-point margin over the Liberals on the issue of

00:09:41.720 reducing the cost of living and making housing more affordable, while holding a significant lead

00:09:45.980 on running an ethical and scandal-free government and making Canada a better place to live. Carney's

00:09:50.940 primary message on the campaign trail was facing the threat of Trump, while Polievre delivered a

00:09:55.760 message of putting Canadian interests first and on change. While each leader dominated in support with

00:10:01.340 voters, primarily voting on Trump or change, dealing with Trump ended up as the more important issue.

00:10:06.480 While Abacus's headline polling estimates were not spot-on, the firm did successfully predict the

00:10:11.700 election would result in a two-point lead in the popular vote for the Liberals. The poll mainly

00:10:15.740 overestimated support for the NDP and the PPC. Nearly 900,000 Canadian students participated in a

00:10:22.300 mock election, where the Conservatives won nearly 36.4% of the popular vote compared to the Liberals'

00:10:27.800 31.7%. This would have given the Conservatives a minority government of 165 seats in the mock vote.

00:10:34.360 So Jeff, the key question remains, has Mark Carney actually addressed the concerns of young voters?

00:10:40.340 Yeah, Isaac, Mark Carney's campaign has largely missed the top concerns of young voters. As

00:10:45.020 highlighted by the Abacus poll, voters aged 18 to 29 prioritized reducing the cost of living and

00:10:50.440 making housing more affordable. Yet Carney's primary message centered on dealing with the U.S.

00:10:54.940 President Donald Trump, an issue that ranked only fourth for this demographic. On housing,

00:10:59.300 Carney's platform promised to double housing construction to 4 million homes over several years,

00:11:04.360 by streamlining federal programs and unlocking private investment. However, this plan leaned

00:11:08.800 heavily on multi-unit housing, which clashes with the Wahey survey showing 61% of Canadians

00:11:14.120 prefer single-family homes with backyards, something young families often want. Critics,

00:11:19.000 including a National Post article from April 20th, argue this approach does not address the immediate

00:11:23.520 affordability crunch young people face, especially with home prices still out of reach. On the cost of

00:11:28.580 living, Carney's actions have been even less convincing. While he reduced the consumer

00:11:33.020 carbon tax to zero dollars, as noted in an earlier statement, he's kept the industrial carbon tax,

00:11:38.460 which 70% of Canadians in a Leger poll believe gets passed on to consumers, driving up prices for

00:11:43.960 everyday goods. His $130 billion spending plan, released April 19th, has also been called inflationary

00:11:49.900 by the Fraser Institute on April 22nd, potentially worsening the cost of living crisis young voters care

00:11:55.020 most about. Carney did pledge to fight online crimes like sextortion to protect kids, which might

00:12:00.240 resonate with younger demographics concerned about safety. But on their core issues, cost of living

00:12:05.000 and housing, his policies feel disconnected, overshadowed by his Trump-focused messaging that

00:12:09.800 appeal more to the 60-plus crowd, who prioritized U.S. relations and helped deliver his minority

00:12:15.080 government. The mock election, where students gave conservatives 36.4% to liberals' 31.7%,

00:12:22.360 suggests young voters might feel unheard by Carney's agenda so far.

00:12:26.360 Yeah, Jeff, just a few things I wanted to add about Carney's housing plan, because I've covered it

00:12:29.860 so extensively. Of course, we remember Trudeau promised the same thing Carney is, 4 million homes.

00:12:35.560 But we saw housing starts decrease under his watch year over year. And also, now we see Carney

00:12:41.440 promising to accomplish these goals through building mobile homes, which after speaking to realtors,

00:12:47.280 investors, et cetera, they revealed to me that these affordable homes, quote unquote, are more of a

00:12:54.400 mirage because when it comes down to utilities and dealing with Canada's weather, they saw clients

00:13:00.020 paying over $2,500 monthly just to live in these mobile homes.

00:13:04.660 That's it for today, folks. Thanks for tuning in. You can stay on top of new episodes every weekday

00:13:12.440 by subscribing to The Daily Brief on iTunes and Spotify. Also, while you're at it, make sure to

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Juno News - May 01, 2025

The PPC tipped the scales towards the Liberals in a few key Ontario ridings

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