Juno News - These are the ridings Pierre Poilievre MUST WIN to defeat Mark Carney

00:00:00.000 half of young Canadian women say they're putting off kids because they can't afford them 0.91

00:00:05.600 but Mark Carney wants 100 million people not for families for the machine

00:00:12.480 no homes no hope and no future just growth at any cost not to build Canada but to change it

00:00:30.000 I'm Candace Malcolm and this is the Candace Malcolm show we have a great episode for you today so we

00:00:38.400 wanted to give you a guide to what you should be looking for on election night it all comes down

00:00:44.800 to a few key swing writings we've been highlighting them throughout the campaign in our series Juno

00:00:50.160 polls with our in-house pollster David Murray and so we're going to spend some time sort of nerding

00:00:55.280 out on the data and talking about which seats as the polls close on Monday evening as the results

00:01:00.720 come in where should you be watching what specific writings do the conservatives need to win in order

00:01:06.080 to get their minority or even majority government and which ones do they have to protect and hold

00:01:11.440 on to to prevent Mark Carney from winning this election so we're going to go through it all

00:01:15.840 it's going to be a great episode very pleased so we have David Murray our in-house pollster from One

00:01:20.240 Persuasion also pleased to be joined by Wyatt Claypool invited to join this call because

00:01:25.120 he is so insightful he is a political commentator and the founder of the national telegraph gentlemen

00:01:30.640 thank you for joining us today thanks for having me on okay so I want to start with fake news Friday

00:01:36.720 it's my favorite segment on the Candace Malcolm show and this one just really stood out because

00:01:41.120 in the last few days before an election this is sort of how the media get away with tipping the scale

00:01:46.560 with really trying to make it so that the liberals will find out when the election this is the kind of

00:01:51.680 thing that they do they plan a fake story and they all ran with it so here we had the Globe and Mail

00:01:56.960 come up with this story Polyev may lose his Ottawa area writing as liberals poised to sweep the region

00:02:03.360 the Toronto Star followed suit wrote a similar kind of story conservatives poor resources into Pierre

00:02:08.880 Polyev's writing amid fears of a tight race and finally Postmedia Ottawa Citizen they all just basically

00:02:14.800 wrote the same story Pierre Polyev in a horse race in Carleton as gap with liberal candidate titans

00:02:21.760 I think this story is total nonsense planted in order to basically make conservative voters feel

00:02:29.040 like they have no hope like if Polyev is losing his own riding in rural Ottawa then the election's over

00:02:34.480 we might as well not even go out to vote on Monday I think it's not true at all and I think that well

00:02:40.560 the reason that I want to bring this up I'll go to you first Wyatt help me debunk this story is this

00:02:45.680 true do you think Pierre Polyev is in risk of losing his own riding well whenever someone makes a big

00:02:50.640 claim like this the first thing you should go to is see if the sources are actually public or they're

00:02:56.880 anonymous and this story is using anonymous sources from the progressive conservative party of Ontario

00:03:03.360 and it shouldn't be surprising at this point that the PC party does not like the CPC and will do

00:03:09.360 literally anything in order to undermine Pierre Polyev when it said that there was two anonymous

00:03:14.560 sources that were quoted from the progressive conservative party my immediate reaction was

00:03:18.960 what is it Corey Tanike and his friend Corey Tanike who are telling them that Polyev is totally going to

00:03:24.960 lose this is like if in the Alberta provincial election the UCP was going to lose Chestermere Strathmore

00:03:32.880 it's just obviously untrue yeah you could go down a suburban road in Carleton and find a bunch of

00:03:38.080 people who don't like Pierre Polyev do you think people who live on acreages in the more rural

00:03:42.800 areas in the small towns near or in Carleton that they're going to be voting liberal or for Bruce Fanjoy

00:03:48.720 a man who so fits in better to a Victoria council meeting than he does to a Carleton

00:03:54.720 federal election it's just obviously not true and in fact Mark Carney has a better chance of losing

00:04:00.480 Nepean than Polyev does have it has of losing Carleton interesting well you were in you were

00:04:07.200 campaigning in the region in I believe in Pierre Polyev's riding is that right Wyatt I wasn't in

00:04:12.640 Polyev's riding I was in the riding that Mark Carney is running in of Nepean I was in Ottawa West Nepean

00:04:18.640 and I was in Kanata that's right next to Carleton the Liberals in fact are actually scared

00:04:24.480 Mark Carney could lose and he's poaching volunteers from Kanata and Ottawa West Nepean and I know this

00:04:31.040 because I was on the ground and every day you'd be driving around or door knocking you couldn't find

00:04:36.400 any liberal volunteers and in fact the conservative candidates were saying that Carney's people have

00:04:42.240 been sucking those volunteers into Nepean to the point where people like Anita Vandenbelt in Ottawa 0.68

00:04:47.360 West Nepean and Jenna Suds in Kanata are only going around with about 10 volunteers a day which is

00:04:52.400 pretty bad considering their opponents have about two to three times the volunteer base that they do

00:04:58.640 wow interesting well David I want to ask you a question because one of the interesting things

00:05:02.320 that happened in this campaign I don't know how it happened to me this is kind of like voter

00:05:06.800 shenanigans or election interference in some way but there's about 200 people running as independent

00:05:12.640 candidates in Pierre Polyev's riding if you look at the ballot it is an absurd joke like this to me

00:05:18.160 makes Canada just seem like an unserious country could that have any impact on the election and

00:05:23.440 from polls and numbers that you've seen in this campaign is Polyev in any risk of losing his own

00:05:29.280 seat Polyev is absolutely not in a risk of losing his seat of Carleton he has held this seat since 2004 he

00:05:35.840 held this through the Justin Trudeau majority there's no way that this is going red whatsoever as for the

00:05:42.560 ballot this is what's called the longest ballot initiative it is a effectively a stunt to try to

00:05:47.760 promote uh electoral reform it more just upsets people as more of just like a hassle as well

00:05:54.480 uh for election poll workers and and voters that are actually going to be filling out those ballots

00:06:00.320 they do not help in their cause at all it's frustrating to me when I look at it I just think

00:06:03.760 it's silly and it makes Canada seem unserious so just for reference to 2021 Pierre Polyev won the

00:06:08.800 election with more than 50 percent of the vote 51.86 percent to the Liberals 31 percent so I think

00:06:15.840 that's a bit of wish casting on behalf of the legacy media and like I said I think it's strategic

00:06:20.000 they're trying to discourage conservative voters and getting them to stay at home okay next thing

00:06:24.400 I want to talk about with you gentlemen is so I had David Murray on the show earlier this week we

00:06:28.800 talked about our final poll Juno poll we have a tie a dead heat the poll was uh in the field on Tuesday

00:06:35.600 so on Tuesday it was a dead heat 39 for the Liberals 39 for the Conservatives one thing that we've done

00:06:41.200 throughout this campaign is something we call the neighbor poll and in our neighbor poll we have

00:06:44.960 consistently shown that the Conservatives are ahead when you ask Canadians who their neighbors are voting

00:06:50.000 for they might be less shy to tell you that it is the Conservatives that's who the signs are showing

00:06:55.760 are that's you know signs in the neighborhood they outnumber Conservatives uh well David Coletu who I

00:07:01.280 consider one of the best if not the best pollsters in the country has followed suit and he's done his

00:07:06.640 own neighbor poll in this election and interestingly enough he found a very similar result to what we

00:07:12.560 found he asked the exact same question we asked who do you think your neighbors are voting for

00:07:17.120 and his poll found that 44 percent of people say conservative to the Liberals 40 percent uh David

00:07:25.040 what do you what do you think of abacus news uh picking up on our neighbor poll and their results

00:07:29.920 I think it's very smart I think that the fact that uh there's certain blind spots that the ballot

00:07:35.120 question can potentially have it's good to have a more fulsome picture uh and as mentioned this has

00:07:40.320 been a method that has been tried and tested down the United States and France and Germany

00:07:44.800 as picking up trends so it's a very interesting way to view the ballot and it might even get away from

00:07:51.120 some of the shy Tory syndrome that we that we know is like quite prevalent within the the polling

00:07:56.320 industry as we've seen around the world and what do you think Wyatt well one of the things that you

00:08:00.880 have with the current conservative coalition going into this election is that it's actually become

00:08:06.080 far more minority and it has always been rural and it still is so a poll question like this or asking

00:08:12.960 people who do you think your neighbor is going to vote for is also going to make up for those

00:08:18.240 individuals who are less likely to pick up the phone or go online and answer a poll it allows you to

00:08:23.680 find the people who are likely to answer a poll and have them answered on other people's behalf

00:08:28.560 or else what you're really going to do is get people who live in metropolitan areas and who are

00:08:33.280 older being the most likely people to actually answer your poll it's just natural that if you work

00:08:39.120 a white-collar job you are going to be more likely to take an online leger poll or an ivr poll than a

00:08:45.280 farmer driving his combine no it's so true and and the fact that i mean we were talking about this

00:08:51.440 um in the last show as well that there there is a bias where people sometimes tell the

00:08:55.440 pollsters what they think the pollster wants to hear and so if the theme on the cbc is you know

00:09:00.720 we have to put our elbows up and support liberals to stop donald trump then they might be inclined to

00:09:05.840 tell a pollster that even though their own intent might be to vote conservative i guess only time

00:09:09.920 will tell we'll find on election night uh whether there's something to our neighbor poll and it shows

00:09:14.800 something different than what the rest of the country's pollsters have been showing okay let's get to the

00:09:19.600 the ridings because this is kind of the fun part when everyone you know you pull out your spreadsheets

00:09:23.200 and you go back and look at the numbers throughout the years and you figure out like what does it look

00:09:28.480 like for pierre polyev to win this election what are the seats that he must win let's start east to

00:09:34.960 west because the polls will close first in atlantic canada so david uh if you know it's election night

00:09:40.640 we're watching the polls close and uh we're looking at atlantic canada what are the seats that you're

00:09:45.360 looking at and what are the ridings that polyev has to win so i'm looking first and foremost at

00:09:50.080 rural newfoundland specifically long range mountains and central newfoundland i think those two ridings

00:09:55.280 are actually going to be quite telling as to some of the dynamics that we're seeing throughout the

00:09:59.440 entire region secondly i'm going to be looking at south shore state markers with rick perkins it's a

00:10:04.480 very interesting dynamic given that the ndp has dropped out uh rick has been a very effective

00:10:08.720 parliamentarian so we'll get to see how his ground game and his base support especially on the in the

00:10:13.520 fisheries files which he's been a very outspoken advocate for uh on the criminal justice side of

00:10:18.720 that specifically so we'll see how that actually translates interesting okay and why what are you

00:10:23.600 what are you going to be looking for in atlantic canada well in atlantic canada what people do

00:10:27.840 need to watch out for is that the conservatives don't need to win atlantic canada to be able to

00:10:33.440 win the election sometimes it's actually kind of like how americans react to different states going

00:10:38.320 in the democrat or republican uh like a slot for their electoral college and they think oh my goodness

00:10:44.480 all is lost it's like in atlantic canada the conservatives just need to be grabbing a little

00:10:49.360 more than a third of the seats and they're in business for the rest of the country and now i

00:10:53.520 even know people who are on the ground in nova scotia and in other atlantic provinces where the media has

00:10:59.040 also been deploying these stories about how long-time conservative incumbents who won massive victories in 2021

00:11:05.680 could go down to defeat in this election they not only have been working for the conservatives on

00:11:10.480 the ground hitting doors but they themselves are pulling analysts and they've been saying that's

00:11:15.120 complete nonsense yes you will see a little bit of suburban drift near two cities towards the liberals

00:11:21.440 but in the deep rural areas or along the more bedroom communities of places like halifax and st john's

00:11:29.680 and fredericton it's conservative it's conservative because working class voters especially union voters

00:11:35.200 have shifted towards conservatives in maybe the same rate that many people who are retired and

00:11:40.720 watch the legacy media at home have shifted towards the liberals hey that's so interesting and so do you

00:11:46.160 have a number for how many seats you think the conservatives need to win in atlantic canada i

00:11:50.880 believe we established there are seven going into this election do you do you think do either of

00:11:55.120 you think that there's a chance that they're going to pick up seats do they have to just hold those

00:11:58.080 seven seats um or like what are you thinking i'll start with you david it was actually my mistake

00:12:02.960 yesterday uh because it was it's actually eight are the incumbent seats so i think that eight

00:12:08.640 is very probable it could we could see up to ten is what i would suggest interesting and do you have

00:12:14.880 any thoughts on that one what i think that what we saw with the uh fishermen protesting the mark

00:12:20.320 carney event in newfoundland that that probably does point to there being a lot of these rural atlantic

00:12:26.800 ridings where maybe the macro national trends don't pick up on them going conservative but

00:12:31.840 the micro issues on the ground around fishing and around oil and gas and newfoundland might

00:12:36.800 end up actually having a lot of sort of off the table wins for the conservatives that we didn't

00:12:41.360 expect this has happened in provincial elections leading up to this where the conservatives in

00:12:46.720 british colombia end up winning a bunch of surrey seats and it's just because you can't pick up on

00:12:50.080 the type of voters who are moving conservative in the polling that's interesting yeah there are

00:12:54.480 distinct voters out there okay let's move on to quebec i don't want to spend too much time on this

00:12:58.400 region because conservatives don't really do very well in quebec but david why don't you walk us

00:13:03.280 through uh what are the most important issues maybe even not for the conservatives but just to watch

00:13:08.000 out for like i know we talked earlier in the campaign about the block surging and winning more

00:13:12.960 seats picking up more seats in suburban montreal will really help the conservatives in just keeping

00:13:17.680 mark carney's number down so talk to us about what are the most important writings to watch in quebec

00:13:23.920 there's two in particular that jump off the page for me the first is la perry atatacan that's one

00:13:28.480 of the actual key swing riding profiles that we did and the reason for it is it's a natural step for

00:13:34.240 both the liberals and the bloc quebecois both in and out of the island of montreal and for a further

00:13:40.400 expansion to the south shore which is where the liberals will be seeking to expand uh their holdings

00:13:45.920 and then the second one is going to be toile rivier we have the former mayor running for the 0.62

00:13:50.480 conservatives and this is going to be a very interesting race specifically between the bloc

00:13:53.920 and the conservatives interesting one of the writings i keep hearing from uh people about

00:13:58.960 is montreal which is a montreal riding that basically it's a liberal stronghold the conservatives have no

00:14:04.480 business even being competitive in this area except for the fact that there is a sizable jewish community 0.92

00:14:10.080 and many believe that the jewish community in canada has flipped and that they will be voting

00:14:14.400 conservative in this writing so why why don't you talk to us a little bit about that dynamic and

00:14:18.480 like do you think that conservatives actually have a chance to win this riding i wouldn't give them

00:14:23.120 a big chance of winning mount royal naturally it is a long time default liberal riding but you are

00:14:28.960 right that a significant portion of the jewish community has gone from being default liberal

00:14:33.200 voters to now probably being default conservative voters because of the liberal and the ndp coalition's

00:14:39.440 enabling of pro-hamas protesters and the kind of soft way that they deal with hamas and gaza itself and

00:14:47.120 the way they constantly condemn israel in the in the united nations so i don't think that uh neil

00:14:53.200 oberman is the favorite to win mount royal but the fact that it's competitive is going to probably say

00:14:58.560 things about how it's going uh how writings are going to play out in the toronto area as well as

00:15:02.800 the ottawa area because when i was in ottawa west nepean we were in uh jewish default liberal

00:15:08.480 ridings or poll areas where the conservatives previously only won maybe 13 of the vote or 14 of the

00:15:14.960 vote and we were probably grabbing up every third door or so uh which is pretty good you know maybe

00:15:20.720 not everyone turns out but that's kind of your litmus test in many of these ridings to see whether

00:15:26.000 or not they can actually be flipped go to the liberal sections of a liberal riding and see if it's more of

00:15:32.320 a tight fight or if it's still stayed with a massive uh a gap between the liberal vote and the conservative

00:15:38.640 vote that's interesting and so why do you have any other uh thoughts or anything else that you're

00:15:43.120 looking at specifically in quebec david is going to be way better at explaining quebec than i am but

00:15:48.720 if i am to simplify it for people like myself on what's going on in quebec is that right now it's

00:15:55.760 just can the bloc prevent the liberals from breaking out of the island of montreal if that happens like

00:16:02.000 in atlantic canada if the conservatives can gain a couple seats and defend their incumbents then the

00:16:06.880 liberals are again not actually adding towards their ability to win the election especially if the

00:16:11.760 bloc is able to take some uh seats in montreal and actually take some seats from the liberals

00:16:17.120 then i think then we're just seeing can the conservatives now run up the score in ontario

00:16:21.840 can they run up the score in bc interesting okay well let's move on to ontario battleground ontario

00:16:27.920 this is sort of where all elections sadly are fought and won or lost uh it's frustrating for

00:16:33.600 someone like me grew up in vancouver i'm still a western canadian even though i live in toronto now

00:16:37.520 but um it's always been frustrating that you know a small group of sort of the uh 905 or suburban

00:16:43.760 ontario determines the entire country and it looks like it will come down to this once again so we have

00:16:48.880 quite a few parts of ontario that we want to focus on let's start with southwest ontario uh david what

00:16:54.800 should we be looking out for on auction night i'll be looking at specifically the some of the bedroom

00:16:59.360 communities that you're seeing throughout uh the region a lot of this has to do with people like

00:17:05.920 specifically young canadians getting pushed out of the out of the urban centers because of real

00:17:10.080 estate prices and whatnot uh and when you're talking about cost of living issues these are things that

00:17:14.640 are front and center of mind for those voters specifically there's some that are going to be

00:17:18.960 very interesting and i'll be paying attention to specifically the first is going to be niagara

00:17:22.960 south i think that that's a very interesting uh community uh um i think next i would be also

00:17:30.000 looking at like kitchener conestoga so that's even like over the mix like a loop around

00:17:35.200 uh the kitchener area and that could be uh we've seen a migration of folks not only from within kw

00:17:44.880 to the more rural parts but like within toronto coming that way as well i would also finally also

00:17:50.320 be paying attention to halton region as well uh down in milton we're talking about like a mythic again

00:17:56.080 these younger families that are getting pushed out and priced out of the urban markets this is

00:18:00.480 one of the first places that they're really going to okay and then we talked a little bit about the

00:18:05.520 sort of i guess i don't know if we call them ethnic writings anymore but the ridings that are very

00:18:09.600 heavily based with immigrant communities and you know um places like brampton and mississauga that it

00:18:17.120 is quite hard to pull and figure out which way this community is leading i've seen some estimates that

00:18:22.080 show that the conserves could pick up a few seats in brampton um so david why don't you walk us through

00:18:27.920 that sort of that sort of area of the gta and um what what you think might happen sure so the first

00:18:33.360 one i would actually be paying attention to would be mississauga lake shore this is along the south

00:18:36.880 side of mississauga right on the lake uh the shore of lake ontario uh and then it just peel region

00:18:43.040 goes on up north from there that's where um some of the stronger cultural communities as you say like

00:18:48.800 have a very significant influence into how uh what the election and results are going to be for those

00:18:55.120 individual ridings and they're going to be quite telling it's entirely possible that we'll get um

00:19:00.640 like we could get six seven we could also get zero it all it all depends completely on how those

00:19:06.720 cultural divides uh really uh measure out within the the actual electorate which as you point out is

00:19:12.480 sometimes quite difficult to measure well it's just it's different than polling the rest of the

00:19:16.160 country and it's it is hard to tell because a lot of it will come down to sort of like the local

00:19:20.320 candidate um the organization that they have on the ground and it's maybe different themes than what

00:19:25.520 the general election um theme to be why i'll bring you in on this um what do you think about the fact

00:19:29.920 that like some of these ridings in brampton mississauga um when we go out west we'll talk about surrey

00:19:35.920 um how you know the these kind of ridings where uh you know it's it's it's kind of like seek uh or maybe

00:19:43.120 some i don't know exactly who all the candidates are um but these ethnic communities um having such

00:19:48.320 a big influence on the election who do you think's run a better campaign in this regard and who do you

00:19:52.320 think that these uh communities are going to come out for i couldn't say what party is specifically

00:19:57.760 running a better campaign with these ridings because it really depends on the riding who did

00:20:02.880 they pick as the candidate how is the ground game been is it somebody who's only acting like a paper

00:20:07.760 candidate or like what you saw in the bc provincial election you have some of these candidates who are

00:20:12.960 going out there every single day with 60 volunteers and they door knock the thing four times over

00:20:17.920 the funny thing with brampton and mississauga and actually also with the east asian community

00:20:22.720 in places like markham unionville and dawn valley north is that they're almost in a time warp these

00:20:28.000 ridings have not really been affected by trade war politics nearly as much as what you would consider

00:20:34.320 older white suburban ridings where people again watch a lot of legacy media because these people

00:20:38.960 don't watch a lot of legacy media it's a truism but it is true that many people in the minority

00:20:44.640 community get all their news from youtube they get it from online sources and so we're really seeing

00:20:50.240 a race that probably hasn't been affected by the liberal surge in these suburban areas with a lot

00:20:55.840 of retirees it's actually going to be its own election completely i have heard especially because

00:21:01.600 i've had a lot of experience door knocking in communities with heavy minority uh like uh 0.99

00:21:07.120 representation and what i found is that while you actually got a lot of older white voters who may

00:21:12.320 have been default conservatives before going liberal when i have or whenever i talk to an asian household

00:21:18.160 or an indo household it's pretty much eight to two conservative out of ten houses and this was just a

00:21:25.200 couple days ago every single chinese house is voting conservative except for one it was pretty nuts

00:21:30.080 because again they are not reacting to legacy media narratives about how you need to vote liberal

00:21:35.760 because it will make trump upset and pure poly of his mini trump and all that that's interesting yeah

00:21:40.560 i remember uh hearing anecdotes about this back in 2011 that the chinese uh people when you're knocking 1.00

00:21:46.400 on doors chinese households like they would just be like yes harper he's strong we like him and it was

00:21:50.880 very much based on the you know the perception of who is a stronger leader and uh it's interesting

00:21:55.840 because we know that there's been chinese election interference in this election i had sam cooper

00:21:59.760 investigative journalists on my show several times throughout the campaign talking about

00:22:03.600 this active campaign that was going on with wechat um this happens in basically in chinese communities

00:22:10.640 and we know it had an impact in 2021 we know that it prevented aaron o'toole from winning a few

00:22:15.680 key seats that maybe could have helped him inch closer to a minority government so it will be

00:22:20.400 interesting to watch just in regards to whether or not the foreign election interference had an influence

00:22:25.600 um or you know whether whether or not um this trend is going to maintain where perhaps more of the uh

00:22:32.960 people are going to show up for the conservatives uh let's move on i know uh david you wanted to talk

00:22:38.000 about um york center and about york region so let's uh let's um zero in a little bit on 905 in these

00:22:44.400 toronto area writings sure so one of the bigger places to actually watch as well and this would be

00:22:49.600 likely the first bit of the gta to actually go conservative before anything else would be

00:22:54.800 primarily the three uh three of the key ridings in york region so we're talking about new market

00:23:00.480 aurora aurora oak ridge richmond hill and richmond hill south you also have the vaunt the two vons and

00:23:05.920 then the uh the markums uh the markums are very interesting specifically because of that east asian

00:23:13.200 uh heritage specifically chinese canadians and the issue set that they care about is very much so in

00:23:18.800 line with a lot of what mr polly has been speaking about specifically on the stop the crime

00:23:24.560 uh kind of pillar of the of his entire platform but also a lot of the drug stuff because this is

00:23:29.920 something that's very important to this community so be interesting to see how this actually plays out

00:23:33.920 in those writings oh that's interesting well i um i'm a resident voter of um aurora oak ridges richmond

00:23:40.560 hill and so my husband and i did our part we got out early and voted in advance polls but

00:23:44.960 yes we will certainly be looking out at that okay anything else in ontario david that we

00:23:49.440 should be keeping our eye out for um so there's a few there there's it's interesting with the the

00:23:54.880 collapse of the impending collapse of the ndp there's a few other writings that become actually

00:23:59.280 quite interesting so windsor tecumseated lakeshore that's another one where you have like a very strong

00:24:04.240 blue collar uh union uh kind of electorate that when you see all the private a bunch of private sector

00:24:10.640 unions i've been endorsing mr polyev and his campaign uh that could also be very interesting

00:24:15.760 looking at hamilton and some of the writings right around there with the deep manufacturing base that

00:24:20.240 they have same idea uh traditionally strong union territory especially with the steel uh and this

00:24:26.640 is also where there's a differentiator between mr karni and mr polyev is that um the tariff response

00:24:34.080 uh on steel and aluminum and specifically the pledge by mr polyev to remove the entire the

00:24:39.760 industrial carbon tax which actually disproportionately impacts steel specifically and then lastly i

00:24:44.880 would actually look up north into northern ontario where we're talking about things like developing

00:24:49.440 the ring of fire uh and further collapse of the liberals uh i'm sorry of the ndp uh this actually

00:24:57.120 makes some very interesting uh races that we haven't seen typically but the ring of fire and

00:25:04.560 everything around it has been such a staple of mr polyev's um speech and he's also been up there

00:25:10.960 countless times uh specifically before the election was called uh this is something that he has talked

00:25:16.800 about the issues that the folks up there really care about especially on like the union side the

00:25:21.840 workers blue collar jobs this is all stuff that he's been talking about quite uh quite deliberately so

00:25:28.000 making gains up there with some of those seats will actually be very telling interesting uh why do you

00:25:32.560 have any comments on the rest of ontario there yeah i was just gonna this is more so a national uh

00:25:37.040 a comment but it does have a lot to do with ontario when people see that of ndp voters who are going to

00:25:43.600 different parties that the liberals are gaining two-thirds of it and the conservatives tend to be

00:25:48.000 gaining one-third of the ndp's vote they have to remember that the distribution of that on the map

00:25:54.160 is very key when it comes to like vote efficiency this is why i mean when i say that the liberals

00:25:59.520 are actually maybe ending up with a less efficient vote than the conservatives because the ndp votes

00:26:05.120 that the liberals are disproportionately eating up are going to be in ridings like parkdale high park

00:26:10.640 and university rosedale and downtown montreal and stuff like that whereas the one-third of the ndp

00:26:17.200 vote that the conservatives are gaining are going to be in these working-class suburban areas and like

00:26:22.880 david's mentioning up in the ring of fire where you actually might be the conservatives are gaining the

00:26:27.600 one-third of the ndp that disproportionately matters compared to the two-thirds of downtown

00:26:33.120 progressive activists interesting okay i'm gonna we're gonna talk about the total like overall

00:26:38.560 predictions for election but let's go through the prairies in bc uh so david you talked to me about

00:26:43.200 winnipeg and how some of the ridings in manitoba are potential uh potentially up for grabs that the

00:26:49.360 conservatives could lose and then there's a couple of other ones in both calgary and edmonton that are

00:26:54.400 going to be tight tighter than they have been in previous years so why don't you walk us through

00:26:58.240 this yeah so there's some of the suburban ridings around winnipeg that are clearly targets for the

00:27:03.840 liberals um thinking about like a kildone in saint paul and also uh marty morance's riding this

00:27:11.360 these are clear targets for the liberals uh and the polling shows that there is strength among the

00:27:16.240 there is strength building among the liberals in the prairies and if it's going to be concentrated in any

00:27:20.960 uh areas that that's where it likely would manifest itself and then secondly on the two alberta major

00:27:27.920 cities uh edmonton southeast is a very interesting one with energy so he uh being the liberal candidate

00:27:33.840 um and then also edmonton griesbach where we have blake deserlay as an ndp he's vulnerable to carry

00:27:39.040 diot the resident conservative uh candidate the former mp uh as well so there's an established brand

00:27:45.920 there as well uh and why i believe you're from calgary yes and so i would say that the uh the

00:27:51.760 two ridings in calgary that are going to be interesting are or i would say three i'll throw

00:27:56.320 three into the mix here there's technically four but if the liberals are going to win any it's going

00:28:00.400 to be three out of the four at best you have calgary confederation you have calgary center and then

00:28:06.080 you have calgary skyview and the mcknight riding we have had a specific riding poll come out of

00:28:12.880 mainstream research showing that skyview is safe for the conservatives i'll just assume that's true

00:28:17.200 and assume that it's now mcknight center and confederation now i actually think there's a

00:28:22.880 better shot of us losing confederation and center than we have of actually losing mcknight to george

00:28:30.080 jahal who defected into that riding because skyview wasn't as friendly and i think it's because

00:28:35.200 metropolitan concern or metropolitan voters in calgary are disproportionately moving liberals so

00:28:41.520 that's where the liberals are going to benefit in somewhere like confederation and center who had

00:28:45.760 previously gone conservative pretty consistently super interesting stuff okay let's move on to

00:28:50.720 british columbia david walk us through what you're watching in bc so there's a few ndp seats in the

00:28:56.480 interior specifically just to start off that i think are very interesting uh similkameen south okanagan

00:29:01.760 west kootenay this is one that could be a very big pickup uh and then also uh skeena bulkley valley we have

00:29:08.880 there's an extremely strong candidate ellis ross that's going to be running there uh those two i

00:29:14.240 think are very interesting next looking at the lower mainland uh and the metro van area first i would

00:29:19.360 start with jagmeet singh's riding it's looking like he's not going to be returning to parliament if things

00:29:24.960 uh manifest themselves as they're currently projected to wow and then if we look at uh other ridings that

00:29:31.120 their primary liberal uh conservative duels i think it's specifically of delta and around that area

00:29:37.120 uh that's actually going to be a a necessary pickup for the conservatives for hope for a government

00:29:42.960 and then lastly i would also point to the tri-cities area talk about like coquitlam poor coquitlam in that

00:29:49.120 area um this is going to be this is again another bedroom community uh where you're seeing a lot of

00:29:56.320 young families that have been priced out of the market of specifically vancouver uh so cost living

00:30:01.680 issues uh and such are very uh front in mind for many of their of the electorate out there

00:30:08.880 well why wasn't that the front page headline on all of those newspapers uh the legacy media talking

00:30:14.960 about the fact that jagmeet singh is probably very likely going to lose his seat and not be in parliament

00:30:19.440 wouldn't be interesting if the liberals win a minority and they need to be propped up by the ndp 0.85

00:30:24.480 the ndp doesn't have a leader um and it has a small caucus i mean it looks like the ndp could end up

00:30:30.560 winning what less than 15 seats uh what do you think of that scenario why and what do you think would

00:30:35.760 happen well this is the perfect question to ask me because i was actually just having coffee a few

00:30:41.040 days ago with an ndp insider and they are saying that currently heather mcpherson is not even really

00:30:46.560 focusing on her re-election in i believe it's uh edmonton strathcona and she's just preparing to run

00:30:53.120 to replace jagmeet singh as the leader and so yeah the ndp is not going to be becoming more

00:30:58.320 moderate over time which means that if the liberals do win a minority government and you have

00:31:03.200 heather pro-hamas mcpherson as the leader it's going to get very uncomfortable trying to work with

00:31:08.560 the ndp if they cannot get the bloc quebecois on side and frankly it would be very foolish for

00:31:14.080 the bloc to work with the for the liberals again because they would be basically saying why even

00:31:18.160 bother voting bloc when you could have just voted liberal and gotten a clear majority government

00:31:23.120 wow so i mean if that happens i feel like the odds of another election coming very soon

00:31:28.080 are probably quite high david i know you don't want to make a prediction uh but you know what what's your

00:31:34.480 best estimate in a projection you know we we had our poll come out on tuesday or wednesday sorry based

00:31:40.400 in the polls um in the field on tuesday we had it at 39 39 just a reminder folks in 2011 when stephen

00:31:47.920 harper won his massive majority government he had 39 of the vote so here we have a scenario where pier

00:31:54.320 poliev could come in as high as stephen harper did when he got that massive majority not win the

00:32:00.320 election i think it's going to happen i'm still optimistic i still think that pier poliev could win

00:32:04.640 my prediction would be a conservative minority uh but david where where are you thinking things are

00:32:09.200 going to land i think it's going to be a minority of some sort whether it's liberal or conservative

00:32:13.680 the question becomes how much support especially if it's a liberal minority how much support in the

00:32:19.520 house of commons can the ndp give them with guarantees and things like that um because if the

00:32:26.400 if the gap is bigger and they require more seats than the ndp caucus has there is a significantly uh

00:32:33.440 stronger chance that we could be in election in the next six months and be here doing this all over

00:32:39.600 again uh because the bloc uh would be a very interesting dance partner uh in parliament

00:32:47.120 specifically so um you also have very fundamentally competing visions for quebec's place in canada so

00:32:54.400 we're talking about a party that is very much at odds at like the core spiritual level of of its existence

00:33:02.320 uh potentially being forced to work with them uh and so that would if that is the case then that would be

00:33:09.040 a very fragile relationship at at least just to start uh my guess would be at that point you we

00:33:16.160 would be back at the polls within between six to nine months wow wouldn't that be interesting well

00:33:20.240 why you had a picture on your youtube channel and someone sent it to me they were commenting on my

00:33:25.280 youtube channel in the comments saying that why it says that there's a chance that the conservatives

00:33:29.840 could actually lose a popular vote that carney could get 39 pauliev could get 38 but because

00:33:35.120 of the math pauliev could still win so why don't you walk us through that scenario and is that

00:33:38.960 your is that your prediction i i'm just not my prediction i would say i'm kind of like david

00:33:44.320 it's going to be a minority government of some description i would say that if it's the neighbor

00:33:49.360 poll that we assume is going to be accurate i think it's going to be a conservative minority if

00:33:52.960 it's the other polls saying uh with like the the the other pollsters saying that the liberals are up

00:33:58.800 by a few it's going to be a liberal minority if it's somewhere in between i think the conservatives

00:34:03.120 eke out a minority that kind of looks like those projections that i was showing because if you

00:34:07.360 go on to the website 338 canada you can pull up their election simulator and you know maybe it's

00:34:13.360 not entirely accurate but they show if the bloc can actually perform at six and a half percent seven

00:34:18.960 percent nationally all that obviously being concentrated quebec and they block the liberals

00:34:24.240 from being able to pick up a lot of seats in quebec and then the conservatives generally have a decent

00:34:29.200 performance everywhere else pick up a few seats in atlantic canada pick up a bunch in ontario and bc

00:34:35.040 i think that the path to victory could actually have the conservatives win while actually dropping

00:34:40.400 the popular vote to the liberals because again the problem with the liberals is they are picking up

00:34:44.560 votes in ridings that they can't win or ridings they were already going to win anyway so they're going

00:34:49.840 from winning 50 victories in places like montreal and toronto and downtown vancouver to winning

00:34:56.160 overwhelming victories from 50 to sometimes up to 75 percent and again that's where the ndp working

00:35:03.280 class vote comes into play are the liberals winning most of the ndp defectors sure but if they're

00:35:08.720 winning them in spadina fort york and they're winning them in university rosedale it doesn't

00:35:12.560 really matter you want the voters who are actually in the ridings that can swing and that looks like

00:35:18.800 what the third of ndp voters of the conservatives are winning are going to be really interesting stuff

00:35:24.400 well uh thank you so much for your time david murray our in-house pollster at joe news is with one

00:35:28.480 persuasion wyatt claypool who is political commentator and he runs his own youtube channel

00:35:32.960 you should go subscribe the national telegraph thank you so much for looking forward to monday

00:35:37.600 evening and we'll talk to you then take care okay thanks so much that's all the time we have for

00:35:43.520 today i'm kendis malcolm this is the kendis malcolm show thank you and god bless

00:35:58.480 so

00:36:11.760 so

00:36:23.600 We'll be right back.

Juno News - April 25, 2025

These are the ridings Pierre Poilievre MUST WIN to defeat Mark Carney

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