Juno News - Trade war BACKFIRES？! Canada’s U.S. liquor ban sparks blowback

00:00:00.000 Well, the ban on U.S. liquor products in most Canadian provinces has been flagged as a major

00:00:10.260 trade irritant between the two countries. This story by the Canadian press, by Canadian policy

00:00:17.260 flagged by U.S. as trade irritants. The report by U.S. Trade Representative Jamison Greer says

00:00:24.320 US producers are being shut out of the billion dollar Canadian market. Last year, Ontario Premier

00:00:31.360 Doug Ford announced measures aimed at punishing the US over that country's tariffs against Canada.

00:00:36.800 I don't start a tariff war, but we're going to win this tariff war. Right off the hop,

00:00:43.680 I've directed the LCBO, we're the largest purchaser of alcohol in the world,

00:00:48.880 to remove every bit of US alcohol off the shelves.

00:00:52.080 The U.S. trade report includes this quote,

00:00:55.780 The United States continues to raise serious concerns regarding these actions and to press Canada to ensure that U.S. alcohol beverages immediately and permanently return to all provincial and territorial markets.

00:01:10.020 Alberta and Saskatchewan are the only provinces not to ban U.S. liquor sales.

00:01:15.100 The U.S. trade tariffs led to a 25% reduction in the U.S. trade deficit with Canada.

00:01:21.000 But it also led auto giant Stellantis to shift production from its Brampton assembly plant to Illinois.

00:01:29.700 No, it's not an April Fool's joke.

00:01:31.440 Life just got a little more expensive for Canadians thanks to a slew of new tax hikes.

00:01:36.520 For a tiny group of politicians, however, paychecks just got bigger and taxpayers get to pay for it all, as usual.

00:01:44.080 This post by Kirk Lubomov, federal politicians get big pay increases, you get to pay more.

00:01:51.000 for booze. The federal excise tax for alcohol is up 2%, so beer, wine and spirits will cost

00:01:58.820 you more starting today. At the start of the year, the industrial carbon tax went up along

00:02:04.340 with increases in EI and CPP premiums. Alberta Premier Daniel Smith wants the provincial

00:02:10.800 NDP to explain how it plans to separate itself from its far left federal cousin.

00:02:16.820 We're getting a pretty clear idea of what the principles of the federal party are.

00:02:22.020 They're pretty communists.

00:02:23.680 They talk about nationalizing everything, from food to building houses to construction companies.

00:02:29.020 They want everyone to have a heat pump and take an electric or an EV bus to work.

00:02:34.560 So I think it's up to the provincial NDP to talk about how they're going to square the circle.

00:02:40.180 If this is federal policy and they're required to conform with it, what are they going to do to implement it?

00:02:45.400 and they can't hide behind we're a different party because they're not.

00:02:49.000 Newly minted NDP leader, Abby Lewis at the federal level has called for no new pipelines,

00:02:54.920 LNG terminals, or offshore oil projects. Our guest today is Kirk Lubomov, who's

00:03:01.720 basically a business consultant. He's got a great resume. He joins us from Calgary. Welcome, Kirk.

00:03:09.400 Hello. How are you doing?

00:03:10.760 Excellent. Thank you. I know you've got a great presence online.

00:03:13.880 That's where I noticed you with your posts basically, but I'd like you

00:03:19.320 to tell our audience exactly what it is that you do.

00:03:24.440 Yeah, I work in the intersection of policy, economics, and capital.

00:03:29.080 So I try to predict and advise of what's the best policy to attract capital, but

00:03:35.720 also where the best places to invest capital based on what's going on in Canada and into US.

00:03:41.640 Well, you could talk a little bit about that later on.

00:03:43.880 But I do want to ask you about this latest report.

00:03:47.060 This is from Jameson Greer, the U.S. trade rep, who basically has kind of thrown down the gauntlet a little bit on the issue of U.S. liquor sales or products in Canada.

00:03:59.740 Because, as you know, Ontario and other provinces, many other provinces, most, have basically banned the sale of U.S. liquor products in retaliation for the tariffs that we saw from the Trump administration.

00:04:10.880 and apparently we got their attention because they've come out

00:04:14.760 and basically said, we really don't like this

00:04:17.380 and this is something that's got to stop.

00:04:21.240 I can ask you now what you think about that.

00:04:26.660 Well, the really big overall question is

00:04:30.240 what are they trying to do with this strategy?

00:04:33.900 At the end of the day, we should be in negotiations.

00:04:37.840 The KUSMA negotiations is happening this year.

00:04:40.320 it's one of the most important uh trade documents we have uh it gives us essentially uh 98 percent

00:04:48.240 tariff uh free uh trade with the us on 98 of the tariff lines uh it governs four billion dollars

00:04:57.680 in daily trade and to throw things into the wind and just to piss people off that you should be

00:05:05.360 trying to negotiate with and save our economy over, you know, a couple hundred million dollars

00:05:10.540 worth of liquor sales, if that, is just such a dumb strategy in general to grand scheme of things

00:05:19.240 of what's happening here. Yeah, the quote in the report is the United States continues to raise

00:05:23.700 serious concerns regarding those actions and to press Canada to ensure that U.S. alcohol beverages

00:05:29.680 immediately and permanently return to all provincial and territorial markets.

00:05:35.360 So they're serious about this, and I see your point, I mean, considering how much trade we do with the United States, to have an issue like this undermine those talks that are coming up fast doesn't seem to make much sense.

00:05:49.180 But I guess we have, particularly provincial premiers like Doug Ford, who have their elbows up, they insist on taking some kind of retaliatory action against the United States because they think it's the best approach in order to discourage and punish the United States.

00:06:05.360 Sadly, when you're talking about the differences in size between our economy and theirs, I don't think that that's a fight that we can win if we're going to just stand there and trade punches with the United States.

00:06:15.880 It doesn't make much sense to me.

00:06:17.100 How about you?

00:06:19.280 No, it doesn't.

00:06:20.380 And what the, what Candace tried to do is, uh, be selective. 1.00

00:06:25.900 Well, not as much Doug Ford, but in general to overall tariff retaliation

00:06:29.300 strategy was trying to be selective in targeting specific products that, uh,

00:06:34.360 particularly impact the red state, which is Donald Trump's voting states.

00:06:39.580 And, uh, you know, we pulled back quite a bit on it, uh, the liberals budget,

00:06:43.460 I think, uh, about $20 billion in revenue out of tariff retaliations.

00:06:47.700 and we dropped most of it and it's just uh you know we just had this childish point of

00:06:54.860 uh you know trying to pick the most ridiculous fights throwing pebbles at our biggest trading

00:07:01.740 partner especially with Toronto and Ontario right now in general that is essentially dependent on

00:07:08.780 the U.S. for electricity imports which Doug Ford by the way thought he would be able to

00:07:14.720 turn off exports to the US. It just does not make any sense. You know, at the end of the day,

00:07:23.080 how much are you willing to risk for such a small move that any gain locally will happen?

00:07:30.560 Let's talk a little bit about investment because you're very much plugged into the investment

00:07:34.880 community in Canada. I mean, we've seen it reported many times that Canada is actually

00:07:40.520 losing investment that billions continue to leave the country certainly i would say over the last

00:07:45.380 10 years that's probably true but you're seeing a change in that trend that some money is coming

00:07:50.180 back into the country can you talk a little bit about that yeah the canadian bonds in general are

00:07:58.740 you know there is essentially two ways to look at uh how canada or how a country is attracting

00:08:05.960 capital one it's into its markets and one it's into the more direct economy and in general

00:08:12.860 canada's really there's a lot of demand for our bonds i don't know why especially corporate bonds

00:08:18.200 as well government bond uh you know if you look at the overall financial health of canada just

00:08:24.460 doesn't really make much sense but uh you can tell from just a different position around the

00:08:31.620 world that they're looking for that uh for that kind of trade in the bond market uh so canada's

00:08:38.700 attracting money from that side what canada is not attracting is uh substantial investment into

00:08:47.220 industries uh if you remove the uh some mergers acquisition uh out of the equation canada just is

00:08:57.300 not attracting investment into the business world.

00:09:00.820 The venture capital world is essentially nonexistent almost in Canada.

00:09:04.320 If you compare it to the U.S. or the hot markets, we're not getting the capital

00:09:10.920 as much as we should be if you look at the mining world, oil and gas world,

00:09:16.580 where especially at the current prices and things that are happening

00:09:21.040 in the global economy, we should be rolling in capital into Canada.

00:09:24.980 the unfortunate part is just there's so much red tape that makes things uncertain

00:09:29.480 uh it just it hinders everything and one of the issues with Canada especially on the industrial

00:09:35.480 side is we are supposed to be attracting capex dollars which are long-term investment dollars

00:09:41.380 so those are decisions financial decisions that investors and other companies do

00:09:46.660 they will will happen over the next 10 20 years so investors need to feel really good about the

00:09:54.260 long-term outlook of canada in order to make an investment decision into canada and this is not

00:10:00.260 happening with the current state of affairs now there was some optimism when carney at least in

00:10:05.060 some quarters amongst liberals um once the carney government took over they they won a year ago

00:10:12.340 there was some expectation that you know given his history leading brookfield that a guy with

00:10:19.460 his business acumen might turn things around in canada but we're not really seeing that are we

00:10:25.780 i mean that's not the case and i guess you put the blame squarely on the regulations that companies

00:10:32.980 have to go through i guess they take one look at that and go i can't make any money in canada

00:10:39.540 yeah companies need to be able to build right there is there's just so much regulation from

00:10:45.140 every aspect if you're a startup if you're a tech startup and you're trying to get into

00:10:50.180 uh fintech or you know you name the industry there is very little support but there is also

00:10:56.980 a lot of regulations that you have to jump through um and on the industrial side is just it's so hard

00:11:04.500 to uh you know we can't get anything out to market uh when the current government came uh

00:11:13.700 into power they you know raw rared with uh we're gonna announce national nation building project

00:11:22.020 and they announced a whole bunch of projects that were already in play for the last 10 years

00:11:27.460 and haven't announced anything new in months uh which really speaks to the level of regulations and

00:11:34.260 uh lack of trust in this government to be able to actually move anything

00:11:39.620 uh even right now you know we're dealing with the pipeline uh conversation from alberta and they

00:11:44.740 just will not remove the uh the uncertainty on the west coast that's creating uh that investment not

00:11:52.260 to materialize and it's very simple and it can be done with a stroke of a pen but they just choose

00:11:58.100 not to do so yeah i mean recently the minister of energy tim hodgson stood up and said that

00:12:05.540 the Canada is basically booming and that the government has fast-tracked projects in the oil

00:12:12.980 sector, like pipeline construction and so forth. And when I looked at what really took place,

00:12:18.340 there was no fast-tracking whatsoever. And then we had Premier Daniel Smith on who said, well,

00:12:23.860 at least we didn't get the kind of obstruction we've had in the past. I'm not sure it's the

00:12:28.660 same thing to say, you know, no obstruction versus fast-tracking. I think the government

00:12:34.420 in ottawa is playing fast and loose with this but there seems to be a major disconnect between what

00:12:39.140 they're saying is going on and what is actually happening and i guess you're obviously seeing

00:12:43.460 what's going on at the ground level aren't you yeah and it's uh it's it's extremely unfortunate

00:12:51.860 because you know for talking about pipelines in general or oil alberta is going to be essentially

00:12:57.620 maxed out on oil production to the next couple years we need new pipelines in any direction if

00:13:03.300 want to increase exports substantially uh and it's it's going to be created a backlog which is

00:13:10.980 going to lose the canadian economy billions of dollars it's as simple as that uh even right now

00:13:18.100 when the world needs oil demands our lng uh the federal government the best they can do is try to

00:13:25.540 increase uh production by 140 000 barrels a day which is uh which is essentially a drop in the

00:13:34.420 bucket to offer to the world and it's uh and it's only happening because of a little bit process

00:13:41.140 optimization because of weather and and and not shutting down for the season for to do maintenance

00:13:48.820 which will also cost thousands of jobs in the meanwhile.

00:13:53.680 Where are you on the memorandum of understanding

00:13:56.120 that was signed between Prime Minister Carney and Premier Smith?

00:13:59.760 Is that the game-changer that it was touted to be,

00:14:02.940 or do you see more of the same?

00:14:06.860 Yeah, I think I was probably the most vocal

00:14:09.340 and the first one to rip it apart

00:14:11.460 because it was such a bad MOU.

00:14:14.680 I don't understand why we need to increase taxes

00:14:18.060 to have an economy.

00:14:19.880 I don't understand why we need to invest

00:14:22.020 an uneconomical project as a proxy

00:14:26.200 to develop economical projects to begin with.

00:14:29.940 So the MOU essentially gives Carney

00:14:33.180 all of his ideological green net zero targets

00:14:37.920 on a silver platter.

00:14:39.420 He gets them all as a function.

00:14:42.640 Pretty much he said to Alberta,

00:14:43.940 if you want to be able to develop your economy,

00:14:45.820 you have to submit to everything that I want and everything that he's been working on for

00:14:49.920 10 years before he even became a prime minister. And one of the key aspects of it is a $16 billion

00:14:57.440 pathway project, which is a carbon capture project. It is so bad and so uneconomical that

00:15:04.240 the industry itself does not want to build it. And it wants the government to subsidize it.

00:15:09.440 So for Alberta to build a pipeline, first it has to spend close to six, seven, possibly eight billion dollars on a project that will never make any money.

00:15:19.480 And there is extreme resistance to it from First Nations and farmers just because of how intrusive it is to lands and overall environment.

00:15:29.840 it so you know it just makes no sense why we create such insane hurdles for

00:15:36.220 ourselves in Canada rather than just let's just build the economy and leave

00:15:40.320 the nonsense aside there's an independence referendum coming up in

00:15:43.780 Alberta in the fall where do you stand on just strictly the economic impact in

00:15:51.920 Alberta were that to move forward and the level of cooperation that has been

00:15:58.220 touted by the independent side with the United States, you know, would that lead

00:16:03.320 to a boom in the energy sector in Alberta?

00:16:09.200 It's an interesting question because I don't think the independence, if it goes

00:16:14.800 through there, I don't think it will impact the energy sector in a negative

00:16:20.120 way at all, you know, the contracts, the pipelines that we already have and set

00:16:25.580 and everything that's moving around, you know, Canada is not going to shut it down.

00:16:29.220 British Columbia is not going to shut it down.

00:16:31.800 But the biggest opportunity we have is a pathway for resources south of the border through the U.S.

00:16:39.940 And if we have that independence to make quick decisions and the U.S. is serious about making deals in business for us,

00:16:47.900 there'll be a huge boom for the resource sector.

00:16:51.040 Absolutely huge opportunity.

00:16:53.080 And we don't have to have any industrial carbon tax regulation.

00:16:57.820 We don't have to have any of those self-defeating policies to be able to develop an economy.

00:17:05.000 So that will save us huge amounts of money from the red tape point of view.

00:17:09.240 It'll also keep a lot more taxes within Alberta.

00:17:12.120 So that's a huge bonus.

00:17:13.740 The other aspect is that with the Alberta independence that isn't talked about enough,

00:17:19.640 I think is that the movement still has to think about other industries besides oil and gas.

00:17:27.480 We still need to see sound policy coming around, you know, what the tech industry will look like,

00:17:34.200 what other industries will look like, which are paramount for our future.

00:17:38.440 And, you know, I would like to see more discussions on that side.

00:17:42.680 okay fantastic now you have as i mentioned earlier quite a an online presence you have

00:17:50.680 people can subscribe for instance to your x account maybe you could tell people how they

00:17:55.720 can access the information in the post that you create online yeah people can follow me on x

00:18:04.040 under my name under kirk lubimov i also write on substack and it's free i don't charge anything

00:18:10.520 for it. And it's under Kirk Lubimov as well. Yeah.

00:18:14.520 Kirk, thank you so much for coming on the show. We really appreciate it.

00:18:18.040 My pleasure. Thanks, Mark.

00:18:19.560 If you enjoyed this show, consider supporting great independent journalism by becoming a

00:18:23.400 premier member of Juno News. Go to junonews.com backslash straight up. You can find the link below.

00:18:31.160 It helps us do what we do. Thank you so much for tuning in. We'll see you next time.

Juno News - April 01, 2026

Trade war BACKFIRES？! Canada’s U.S. liquor ban sparks blowback

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