Juno News - Trade War reaction ⧸ Trudeau LIVE press conference ⧸ Are the polls legit (ft. Hamish Marshall)

00:00:00.000 Hi, I'm Candice Malcolm and welcome to the Candice Malcolm Show. We've got a big show for you today,

00:00:12.720 lots happening in the news right now. We're going to jump right into it. As you probably saw,

00:00:17.360 we are now in the middle of a trade war. So as of 12.01 a.m. Eastern time today, March 4th,

00:00:23.500 the United States, citing national security reasons, started taxing all Canadian and Mexican

00:00:29.400 goods at 25%, except for Canadian energy, which will be taxed at a lower rate of 10%. So immediately

00:00:36.160 following that, the Canadian counter tariffs have been also put into effect. They will be placed on

00:00:42.660 $30 billion worth of products starting today. And then we are told that they're going to rise

00:00:48.700 to $155 million on March 25th. So here we are in the middle of a trade war, and we are waiting

00:00:56.460 for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to come and speak to Canadians. He was supposed to be on

00:01:01.680 an hour ago at 10 o'clock, but we are still waiting for him. They bumped it to 10.30 and

00:01:06.760 here it is 11.05 Eastern Time. Still no sign of the Prime Minister. Nothing says urgently

00:01:11.300 addressing an emergency like the Prime Minister just strolling into a press conference an hour

00:01:16.180 late. Well, folks, as soon as that goes live, we will throw to it. But in the meantime, I'd like

00:01:20.440 to welcome our guest for the program today. Pleased to be joined by Hamish Marshall. Hamish is a

00:01:25.360 pollster. He is a partner at One Persuasion, which is a government relations and strategy firm

00:01:29.560 in Ontario. Hamish, welcome to the program. Whoops, I don't think your audio is working there,

00:01:36.460 Hamish. Well, you know why it's funny? Because today is Shrove Tuesday. It's pancake day. My 0.96

00:01:42.560 kids and I had like this wonderful morning. We woke up, we made pancakes, we're talking about

00:01:46.420 Easter. It was just like a nice normal morning. And then I turn on my phone and I'm like, oh yeah,

00:01:51.000 the world is on fire. And so that kind of quickly imploded there. But so, yeah, basically, Trump

00:01:58.060 told us this was happening. Yesterday in the White House, he said that it was coming forward.

00:02:03.680 Here is President Trump speaking about the tariffs yesterday.

00:02:08.520 Very importantly, tomorrow tariffs, 25 percent on Canada and 25 percent on Mexico, and that'll start.

00:02:16.360 So they're going to have to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants,

00:02:20.360 frankly and other things in the united states in which case they have no tariffs

00:02:26.520 and then we also uh trump was asked whether there was room uh for a deal to be made was

00:02:32.440 there going to be an 11th hour deal remember initially the these tariffs were supposed to

00:02:36.120 come in in february and then trump bumped it um so here's a question uh is there any room left and

00:02:41.880 trump just closing the door on that and saying no this is happening on the tariffs is there any room

00:02:47.480 left for canada and mexico to make a deal before midnight and should we expect those chinese 1.00

00:02:51.720 tariffs the extra 10 percent to take no room left for mexico or for canada no the tariffs uh you

00:02:57.880 know they're all set they go into effect tomorrow so it's here is happening we've had a few months

00:03:04.840 warning hamish we knew that this was coming we knew that that trump was serious about it

00:03:08.920 it doesn't seem like canada really came up with another strategy or plan we didn't diversify we

00:03:13.080 didn't open up new trading lanes i don't think we made any progress on opening up interprovincial

00:03:17.240 trade barriers or building new pipelines it just seems like we were kind of caught flat-footed

00:03:21.400 again maybe hoping that something would change but it didn't and now it's upon us uh what's

00:03:26.040 your takeaway from all this so far yeah i mean i think the approach of the liberal government has

00:03:30.040 been just a hope you know the there was tariffs supposed to come in when trump was first elected

00:03:34.760 then it was february 1st and we kind of got through those hurdles and and you know we thought

00:03:40.120 appointing a fentanyls are would be would be enough um and apparently you know it wasn't uh

00:03:45.800 you know, it's still not clear to me exactly what Trump wants per se. You know, he talks about

00:03:52.320 national security. He talks about trade. Sorry to interrupt you here, Hamish. We have Justin

00:03:56.180 Trudeau. So we're going to go live to the prime minister, hear what he has to say, and then we'll

00:03:59.880 come back to you. Let's go live to Justin Trudeau, prime minister of Canada. Today, the United States

00:04:05.940 launched a trade war against Canada. The closest partner and ally, the closest trade.

00:04:13.120 At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia, appeasing Vladimir 0.99

00:04:21.440 Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. 0.99

00:04:26.160 Make that make sense. 0.99

00:04:30.360 Canadians are reasonable, and we are polite, but we will not back down from a fight, not

00:04:36.500 when our country and the well-being of everyone in it is at stake.

00:04:44.200 At the moment, the U.S. tariffs came into effect in the early hours of this morning,

00:04:51.220 and so did the Canadian response.

00:04:54.880 Canada will be implementing 25% tariffs against $155 billion worth of American goods, starting

00:05:04.060 with tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods immediately and tariffs on the remaining $125

00:05:11.240 billion of American products in 21 days' time.

00:05:15.500 Encore aujourd'hui, on se voit forcés d'imposer des droits de douane de 25 % sur 155 milliards

00:05:24.060 dollars américains de marchandises, 30 milliards de dollars de façon immédiate, et dans 21

00:05:34.940 jours, 125 milliards de dollars de marchandises de plus. Today, we will also be challenging

00:05:43.500 these illegal actions by filing dispute resolution claims at the World Trade Organization and

00:05:50.620 through the USMCA. But in the meantime, our tariffs will remain in place until the US tariffs

00:05:58.700 are withdrawn and not a moment sooner. And should these tariffs not cease, we are in active and

00:06:06.860 ongoing discussions with provinces and territories to pursue several non-tariff measures. Measures

00:06:14.220 which will demonstrate that there are no winners in a trade war.

00:06:21.640 Now, just like I did a month ago, I want to speak first directly to the American people.

00:06:31.020 We don't want this.

00:06:33.080 We want to work with you as a friend and ally, and we don't want to see you hurt either.

00:06:41.260 your government has chosen to do this to you. As of this morning, markets are down and inflation

00:06:51.760 is set to rise dramatically all across your country. Your government has chosen to put

00:06:58.200 American jobs at risk, that the thousands of workplaces that succeed because of materials

00:07:05.560 from Canada, or because of consumers in Canada, or both. They've chosen to raise costs for American

00:07:15.160 consumers on everyday essential items like groceries and gas, on major purchases like

00:07:21.480 cars and homes, and everything in between. They've chosen to harm American national security, 0.53

00:07:29.940 impeding access to the abundant critical minerals, energy, building materials,

00:07:35.220 and fertilizers that we have and that the United States needs to grow and prosper.

00:07:44.820 They've chosen to launch a trade war that will, first and foremost, harm American families.

00:07:52.260 They've chosen to sabotage their own agenda that was supposed to usher in a new golden age for the United States.

00:08:02.940 And they've chosen to undermine the incredible work we've done together to tackle the scourge that is fentanyl,

00:08:11.400 a drug that must be wiped from the face of the earth.

00:08:15.500 So on that point, let me be crystal clear.

00:08:18.540 There is absolutely no justification or need whatsoever for these tariffs today.

00:08:29.960 Now, the legal pretext your government is using to bring in these tariffs

00:08:34.540 is that Canada is apparently unwilling to help in the fight against illegal fentanyl.

00:08:42.100 Well, that is totally false.

00:08:46.340 Let's look at the facts.

00:08:48.540 Our border is already safe and secure.

00:08:53.120 Far less than 1% of fentanyl flows and less than 1% of illegal crossings into the United States comes from Canada.

00:09:00.920 But we acted because we know we can always do better.

00:09:07.820 We responded to concerns, including from the president, by implementing an ambitious $1.3 billion border plan.

00:09:15.620 A border plan that includes generational investments in new AI and imaging tools to stop the flow of fentanyl in its tracks, stronger coordination and information sharing with American agencies, along with the deployment of drones, helicopters, and additional personnel to keep our borders secure.

00:09:37.240 now a month ago as part of an agreement with the united states that paused the tariffs

00:09:43.480 we made further commitments we appointed kevin brusso as our fentanyl czar a man who dedicated

00:09:52.180 his multi-decade career in law enforcement to combating organized crime networks and drug

00:09:58.160 trafficking we designated seven drug cartels sick evil groups who cynically profit off the pain and

00:10:06.800 suffering of people on both sides of the border as the terrorist organizations that they are.

00:10:13.800 And just yesterday, we launched a new joint operations partnership supported by a $200

00:10:20.640 million investment between Canada's security and law enforcement agencies, a partnership

00:10:27.660 that will enhance the coordination of information and intelligence in order to thwart criminal

00:10:33.180 gangs involved in the illegal fentanyl trade.

00:10:36.800 and critically our actions are working as the u.s states as the u.s customs and border protection

00:10:47.020 just acknowledged there was a 97 percent drop in fentanyl seizures from january compared to

00:10:55.780 December to a near zero low of less than half an ounce seized in January, even with all the further

00:11:08.140 enforcements and actions we've taken at the borders. In sum, we stepped up. We engaged closely

00:11:17.620 and constructively with the President and his administration. We did everything we promised.

00:11:23.800 We stuck to our word, and we did it because we believe in working together to protect our citizens.

00:11:35.340 Now I want to speak directly to one specific American, Donald.

00:11:43.320 In the over eight years you and I have worked together, we've done big things.

00:11:50.300 We signed a historic deal that has created record jobs and growth in both of our countries.

00:11:58.500 We've done big things together on the world stage, as Canada and the U.S. have done together for decades, for generations.

00:12:07.360 And now, we should be working together to ensure even greater prosperity for North Americans in a very uncertain and challenging world.

00:12:23.100 Now, it's not in my habit to agree with the Wall Street Journal. 0.96

00:12:27.880 But Donald, they point out that even though you're a very smart guy, this is a very dumb thing to do. 0.72

00:12:37.360 We, two friends, fighting is exactly what our opponents around the world want to see.

00:12:48.520 And now, to my fellow Canadians, I won't sugarcoat it.

00:12:54.540 This is going to be tough, even though we're all going to pull together, because that's what we do.

00:13:01.040 We will use every tool at our disposal so Canadian workers and businesses can weather this storm.

00:13:08.040 From expanding EI benefits and making them more flexible to providing direct supports to businesses,

00:13:15.040 we will be there as needed to help.

00:13:20.040 But Canada, make no mistake, no matter how long this lasts, no matter what the cost,

00:13:26.040 the federal government and other orders of government will be there for you.

00:13:31.040 We will defend Canadian jobs.

00:13:34.600 We will take measures to prevent predatory behavior that threatens Canadian companies

00:13:40.060 because of the impacts of this trade war, leaving them open to takeovers.

00:13:45.960 We will relentlessly fight to protect our economy.

00:13:50.400 We will stand up for Canadians every single second of every single day

00:13:56.620 because this country is worth fighting for.

00:14:01.040 Okay. We can cut it there, Mon. So, I mean, Justin Trudeau kind of coming out and giving

00:14:10.360 the speech of his life, basically, and really like spelling it out. First of all, he takes

00:14:15.980 kind of an unnecessary jab at the beginning, talking about Putin. I think he's trying to

00:14:19.800 like insert himself into the dispute that happened last week, calling him an atrocious 0.72

00:14:23.640 murderer. His tone was kind of condescending at the beginning, Hamish, especially when

00:14:28.040 was talking to Americans because he was telling Americans that they were going to feel the pain.

00:14:31.660 And all I was thinking was, no, man, it's the Canadians that are going to feel the pain. Like,

00:14:35.480 yes, there will be pockets of Americans that will feel this, but their economy is just so

00:14:40.280 much larger than ours. Ours is such a fraction of it, so much more dependent upon their economy

00:14:44.520 for trade than vice versa. So the message that he was supposedly giving to Americans,

00:14:47.960 I felt like it really should have been aimed at Canadians. That moment where he was talking to

00:14:52.880 President Trump one-on-one, I thought that was actually quite effective, even though I don't

00:14:56.120 like. I cringe when I hear politicians using first names to one another. I just think it's

00:15:00.580 really inappropriate. But, you know, we were talking about that with President Zelensky in

00:15:05.420 the Oval Office, and he kept referring to the vice president as J.D., which I just I didn't like

00:15:09.460 that. But basically just saying there's no justification or need whatsoever for these

00:15:14.340 tariffs, spelling out what the Canadians had done to improve the border, to crack down on fentanyl.

00:15:18.700 I think that those are all really reasonable, good points, Hamish. But to me, there was like

00:15:22.140 he was missing he was missing the forest for the tree like he some of the just the major takeaways

00:15:27.580 here it's like dustin trudeau does not have a mandate at this moment president trump does not

00:15:32.720 like prime minister dustin trudeau part of the reason that we're in here you have to believe

00:15:36.640 is that these two individuals just don't see eye to eye they don't like each other they they kind

00:15:41.200 of enjoy making a spectacle of one another because their politics are so opposite so we don't have

00:15:46.000 a strong government in canada that just came in with a mandate we have a lame duck leader who's

00:15:50.560 loathed and despised by the people on his way out. He shouldn't be up there, right? He resigned on

00:15:56.060 January 6th. We could have had a federal election. We could have had an election. He could have put

00:16:00.800 someone else in. They could have had the election. We could be sitting here on March 4th with a new

00:16:05.260 fresh mandate and a new leader. But instead, Justin Trudeau has decided for himself to go out

00:16:10.920 this way, proroguing parliament, having a long leadership review process, and they're going to

00:16:15.220 put in their new prime minister on Sunday. To me, that's a story that Trudeau just seems to be

00:16:21.440 completely missing. What's your take on it? Look, I think a lot of this is a result of Trudeau's

00:16:27.360 weakness and Trudeau's disastrous time as prime minister, right? Canada, the reason Trump is

00:16:31.960 coming after Canada, you know, in a large sense, and I agree that it's not about specific security

00:16:38.440 or national defense issues or even drug issues that are sort of the fig leaves for this.

00:16:45.220 is that he sees Canada as an easy source of places to get jobs.

00:16:49.620 He wants one of his core promises and what he wants to deliver

00:16:52.360 is more manufacturing jobs, specifically manufacturing jobs in the United States.

00:16:57.040 Those are good, high-paying jobs that will go to places

00:17:01.160 and to the sort of people who are Trump supporters.

00:17:04.300 That is something he sees he wants to deliver for his people.

00:17:07.420 And part of that is to bring jobs back from China, but that takes time.

00:17:11.440 The easier thing to do is to create instability in the relationship with Canada and, frankly, with Mexico, so that if you're somebody who relies on shipping auto parts across the border, even if these tariffs go away in two, three, six months, six weeks, I don't know, to say, I don't want to go through this again.

00:17:29.800 I'm just going to move my auto parts plant from Windsor, Ontario.

00:17:34.760 We're going to move it down to Kentucky or somewhere because I just don't want to have to have that sort of disruption.

00:17:38.620 so the disruption is the purpose and that's what trump's trying to do and when trio is saying this

00:17:47.260 is going to hurt he's right it's going to hurt americans you're absolutely right it's going to

00:17:50.140 hurt canadians a heck of a lot more that's also kind of the point he will trump wants that pain 0.92

00:17:55.720 he wants the disruption so that people say i don't want to deal with this garbage anymore and just 0.85

00:18:00.020 move my my plants or our factories uh south of the border that's what he's trying to do and

00:18:06.920 And, you know, we're in a position as Canadians in our Canadian economy that we have less ability to stand up to that today than we did 10 years ago because of persistent decisions Trudeau has made.

00:18:16.980 You're right. Trudeau is, you know, being a weak leader and that Trump sees him as a weak leader.

00:18:21.760 And since really since Freeland resigned and then Trudeau has resigned, the weakness has only gotten more.

00:18:29.660 And that's why Trump's pushing hard today, because, you know, if the liberal, I honestly believe if the liberal leadership had been set that we had a prime minister, you know, two days ago, as opposed to, you know, in five or six days, and we had a new leader, the terrorists would have come in a week ago.

00:18:46.860 He's coming in when Canada's at, he's hitting us when Canada's at its weakest, and we're the weakest right now with Justin Trudeau.

00:18:52.340 And it seems like our response, Hamish, is not going to help. Like the whole idea here that we're throwing retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., it's a tax on Canadians. A retaliatory tariff is a tax on Canadians. So the hurt that Canadians are going to feel, it's going to be a little bit from what Trump is doing, but it's a lot more what our own leaders are doing.

00:19:11.720 So here is Doug Ford appearing on American News last night and NBC News with Aaron Gilchrist, basically saying that they're going to shut down the electricity going to the United States so that the Americans will feel the pain like they've never felt before.

00:19:25.320 If he wants to destroy our economy and our families, I will shut down the electricity going down to the U.S.

00:19:34.240 And I'm telling you, we will do it.

00:19:36.820 It's unfortunate.

00:19:38.020 I would rather ship you more electricity.

00:19:40.160 We're the number one trading customer to 28 states, and a lot of them are red states.

00:19:46.260 They're going to feel the pain like they've never felt before.

00:19:51.180 So I'm not sure if Canada stops selling electricity to the Americans, I'm sure the Americans will find another way to get it.

00:19:57.340 I mean, we might feel some pain there.

00:19:58.840 But to me, there's going to be a longer term pain felt by Canadians because who else are we going to sell to?

00:20:03.320 It's not like you have an option to go to another market with something like that.

00:20:06.320 What do you think?

00:20:06.960 Well, I think actually the non-tariff actions like blocking electricity, and I think the

00:20:13.360 other thing, the most interesting word the Prime Minister said in the entire speech was fertilizer.

00:20:17.520 He called out the Americans need our fertilizer. We have enormous potash reserves that are,

00:20:22.320 it's key to making fertilizer. Much of the modern world depends on, frankly, on fertilizer

00:20:27.760 and our ability to generate, and the Americans' ability to generate huge amounts of food. 0.56

00:20:32.960 um being if he says we're going to stop potash exports to the united states that gets very very

00:20:38.400 interesting because those are things that yes they can buy potash from other places but it's

00:20:43.040 it's really much much more expensive and it takes time for those to come in and that's even more

00:20:47.120 true with electricity the potash is shipping it around in containers and you buy it from

00:20:51.520 australia or somewhere else and it takes a while to trip but you know shipping containers shipping

00:20:56.240 containers electricity you've got the wires you can't just throw some electricity in a boat and

00:21:00.960 and move it somewhere else.

00:21:02.280 So will the Americans be able to make up the electricity

00:21:05.220 by firing up some old plants and things?

00:21:07.440 Perhaps, but that will take time.

00:21:08.960 It will contest a lot of money,

00:21:10.340 have a very immediate impact on the price

00:21:13.980 of a lot of things in the United States.

00:21:15.900 Most notably that have an impact

00:21:17.400 on those manufacturing plants

00:21:18.780 because they are enormous consumers of electricity.

00:21:21.500 So, and frankly, while Canada, you know,

00:21:25.960 a lot of the electricity that we sell the United States,

00:21:28.720 particularly from Quebec, but sometimes from Ontario,

00:21:30.520 generated by hydropower so it's not it's very easy to just to let the water run over the dam

00:21:35.580 and decide not to generate that electricity so turning that off is actually something we can do

00:21:40.200 without a lot of impact for us so i think that is ultimately where it's going to be the most effective

00:21:45.180 is looking at the the non-tariff things that they can only get to canada but from canada because

00:21:52.720 our economies are so integrated our infrastructure is so integrated is much more effective than to

00:21:57.240 your point, some tariffs that hurt Americans, but only a little bit. Well, it's interesting. So I

00:22:02.080 want to play this clip. This is Dr. Ian Lee, who is a professor, I believe, at Carleton in business.

00:22:06.460 And he was on the CBC explaining what tariffs are and basically saying that when you look at the

00:22:12.240 studies, when you look at the data, there is no redeeming argument whatsoever for a retaliatory

00:22:18.020 tariff. It doesn't do what we want it to do. It's not going to impact the Americans. So let's get

00:22:22.940 Let's play this clip, and then I'll get your response to it, Hamish.

00:22:26.820 Adrian, can I jump in on that?

00:22:29.460 You bet.

00:22:30.420 I want to put forward the other point of view.

00:22:33.860 Governor Macklem gave an unbelievably superb speech February 21st to Oakville Chamber of Commerce,

00:22:41.580 and he outlined very empirically and factually the extraordinary destructive impact of tariffs on the economy,

00:22:50.340 on investment, on inflation, on the price of goods.

00:22:54.200 And I went through that speech, the written document,

00:22:57.280 very, very carefully multiple times.

00:22:58.940 I couldn't find any redeeming arguments to support retaliatory tariffs.

00:23:04.680 They're going to be very destructive for us.

00:23:07.800 And so putting tariffs on top of tariffs,

00:23:10.420 and remember the Canadian tariffs will be on Canadians.

00:23:14.540 So when the government says $100 billion or $200 billion,

00:23:17.540 that's a tax on Canadians.

00:23:20.340 And then the argument is, is that somehow going to cause Mr. Trump to change his mind?

00:23:25.900 And, you know, it's such a huge economy.

00:23:27.940 We say these amounts are large.

00:23:29.420 A hundred billion dollars is a big amount.

00:23:31.880 The U.S. economy is 20, somewhere between 25 and 30 trillion dollars, depending on how you measure GDP without getting into the weeds.

00:23:40.580 So, you know, a hundred billion dollars on a 25 to 30 trillion dollar economy is like finding a loony on the sidewalk and thinking you've got to you've made it rich.

00:23:49.900 It's statistically insignificant.

00:23:53.660 Significantly, it's statistically insignificant.

00:23:55.560 I like that analogy of finding a loonie.

00:23:57.400 So as much as we push back, it's not really going to affect them.

00:24:00.460 I want to just play one more clip because it did remind me when I had the opportunity

00:24:03.300 to sit down with Conservative leader Pierre Polyev, I asked him about this because one

00:24:07.340 of the things that I'm not quite there on is this idea that the Conservatives agree

00:24:11.440 with this measure, that the Conservatives are there saying yes to Justin Trudeau.

00:24:14.520 We agree.

00:24:15.240 We want these retaliatory tariffs because really what they are is a tax-efficient agent.

00:24:17.860 So I'm going to play that clip and then I'll go back to you, Hamish.

00:24:21.640 Trudeau said that they would issue retaliatory tariffs against the Americans, 25 percent.

00:24:26.540 You came out in a basic agreement with that saying that you would also support.

00:24:29.920 So my question is, a tariff that Canada imposes is really just a 25 percent tax on the goods that we import.

00:24:37.720 So it's a 25 percent tax on what Canadians pay for.

00:24:40.620 So why is a conservative leader agreeing with basically a 25 percent liberal tax increase?

00:24:47.860 Well, I don't agree with any liberal tax increase of any kind ever. But I do believe that if a foreign government attacks Canadian industry, that we have to retaliate. That is the only tool we have to deter. These tariff threats from the United States are utterly unjustified. There is no justification for what Mr. President Trump is threatening on Canada.

00:25:07.140 so that was back on february 13th but the issue still remains pertinent so i i hear your point

00:25:13.940 that the other measures that are non-tariff measures might be more effective than the

00:25:18.400 tariffs themselves i'm not a fan of a 25 tax on canadians and i don't think it's going to work

00:25:22.500 right like if if we were at the point where you know we we turn we turn on this tax and it actually

00:25:27.340 has a devastating impact on the american economy and trump wakes up tomorrow morning and says this

00:25:30.580 is a big mistake i'm going to undo them i just don't i don't see that happening so at this point

00:25:34.980 I just don't understand why Canada is in such a weak position.

00:25:38.240 Why are we making ourselves weaker with this tax?

00:25:41.040 Well, I mean, I agree with Mr. Polly.

00:25:42.420 I think you have to stand up for yourselves.

00:25:43.940 I think you have to, there will be an impact.

00:25:45.860 And as I think one of the commenters made in a lot of red states, which I think will hopefully help when members of Congress begin to start hearing complaints from their constituents, that will filter up to the president, hopefully.

00:26:01.920 But I also think the other thing Mr. Paglius proposed is a really good idea of saying, if we're going to have these tariffs, let's make sure we take any revenue collected from them and put them into immediate tax cuts for Canadians, so that if we are going to all have to pay more for certain things that are imported, we'll all have a little more money in our pocket.

00:26:21.100 And I appreciate that will allow people to get ahead to some extent in a very difficult situation.

00:26:32.100 But I think we do have to stand up for ourselves because the most important thing, I think, from the beginning is that, as I said at the very beginning of this, Trump smells weakness.

00:26:41.100 And I think if we don't put anything back, he'll just see it as more weakness and he'll say, great, 25 percent, let's make it 35.

00:26:48.100 So I think we have to stand up for ourselves and say that we are going to have to inflict some pain going the other way as well, while recognizing we can do far less damage to the American economy than they can to us.

00:26:59.800 Well, here is Immigration Minister Mark Miller.

00:27:02.680 He was on CBC, and he said that it's OK because Canadians, he says, have a higher pain threshold, apparently, than Americans.

00:27:11.340 Let's play that clip.

00:27:11.840 And it will continue to be important to diversify our economies, but we can't replace an economy that is responsible for 80% of our trade overnight and it's going to hurt. My message to Canadians is that we have a higher pain threshold than our partners to the south of us. We can continue to fight. We will have to bring the fight and it will hurt Americans as well.

00:27:34.560 And not to be outdone, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was out there last night saying that it's time for Trudeau to basically kick Donald Trump out of the G7 and uninvite him from the upcoming G7 meeting in Alberta.

00:27:52.520 Let's play that clip.

00:27:53.080 Given that we are the host of the G7 summit and given that Donald Trump has threatened

00:27:59.320 our very sovereignty, threatened our economic security, we should not invite Donald Trump

00:28:05.920 to the G7. It doesn't make any sense to do so. As a host, we should work with other countries

00:28:10.800 to develop a strategy on how we can resist the very dangerous ideas that Donald Trump's

00:28:16.580 putting forward. And that should be the focus of the summit.

00:28:19.040 I mean, forget about Singh's comments there because they're silly, but it will be interesting.

00:28:24.260 I mean, we have this meeting coming up. Trump will be there and we will have a new prime minister. 0.69

00:28:28.880 Maybe we'll have two new prime ministers by then, but it won't be Justin Trudeau.

00:28:32.760 And I think that that will be a meeting to watch. What's your takeaway from some of these reactions we're seeing?

00:28:37.900 I mean, I think Mark Miller's trying to sort of play to some sort of bizarre version of K-Nationalism.

00:28:43.520 He couldn't even get through the line about a higher pain threshold without sort of smirking and laughing himself. 0.75

00:28:49.040 knew he was ridiculous and it was when he was saying it it was just it's just absurd uh and 0.82

00:28:53.280 it really shows just how the liberals are you know this is serious business and they can't quite 0.96

00:28:58.080 they can't quite manage to to deal with these serious topics and it's one of the reasons why

00:29:02.000 we're in that we're in this mess you know you're obviously saying this just being silly and further

00:29:07.200 proving how absolutely inadequate he is for anything um remotely approaching the leaders

00:29:11.680 of power um look donald trump's a deal maker he prides himself on a deal maker if there's

00:29:16.080 anything he sees himself as it's a deal maker um frankly an in-person meeting at a summit in canada

00:29:22.400 that's an opportunity for something i think i think trump sees this you know the meeting is in

00:29:27.920 three or four months i believe and that is about enough time that for him trump to make a point

00:29:34.080 with tariffs and have a new prime minister to make a deal with i think trump might see it as an

00:29:37.920 opportunity to to make a deal and it could be it could be an opportunity to do so and i think

00:29:42.560 So Canadians would be foolish to turn back on that opportunity to come up with some sort of deal that will last for the rest of the Trump presidency.

00:29:51.080 Well, because I have you, I just have to take it over and talk about the polling because we have just seen a spectacular change in fortunes.

00:29:59.700 Right. Like I started I came back and started doing my show in early January.

00:30:03.520 I came coming back from maternity leave. And at that point, the conservatives looked like they were going to walk away with the largest majority in the generation.

00:30:11.400 And it seemed just like a matter of time, like Justin Trudeau needs to step down when

00:30:15.160 the election comes, we will see this change.

00:30:17.520 And then you look at what has happened basically since that time, since January, and just the

00:30:23.700 spectacular change.

00:30:25.020 I think we have that graph that everyone has been pointing at.

00:30:27.860 So conservative lead, you know, just in the last two, two, three months there has basically

00:30:33.060 all but disappeared.

00:30:34.660 We've had you on the show a few times, Hamish, to sort of help us understand whether, you

00:30:39.080 the polls were real, whether it was something that the media was manufacturing or somehow were

00:30:44.860 they overreading a trend. It still confuses me because the latest Ipsos poll, which came out on

00:30:49.840 February 23rd, shows that the Liberals are actually beating the Conservatives by two points. And that

00:30:55.240 would be the first time that the Liberals have been ahead in a poll since 2021. Still very close,

00:31:01.500 but it shows Liberals clearly ahead. But then after that, Abacus data came out and Abacus has

00:31:07.000 repeatedly found that the conservatives are ahead. David Coletto is a very reputable pollster and by

00:31:13.780 no means a conservative. Very fair and balanced. And he's gone out into the field several times

00:31:19.660 to try to see if the liberal bounce is real. He doesn't seem to be able to find it. So his latest

00:31:25.300 poll shows conservatives up at 41, liberals down at 29. Maybe first of all, talk about the

00:31:31.920 discrepancy there and which which poll do you think is is more accurate or are they both off

00:31:37.200 like where do you think we are as a country right now so when i see things like that when i see

00:31:41.660 multiple reputable pollsters um coming up with dramatically different results it clearly shows

00:31:47.780 to me that we have an electorate in turmoil that has extremely soft impressions of everything

00:31:52.940 that's going on what's very very clear to me is that people were very very sick and tired of

00:31:58.000 Justin Trudeau, and they wanted change. With him leaving, they're getting something of change.

00:32:04.700 Carney is even newer to the scene in terms of frontline politics than Mr. Polyev,

00:32:12.200 and people are checking that out. We're seeing Mr. Carney's running into a lot of trouble where

00:32:17.540 he keeps making things up, and I think things will begin to... The reality of Carney will not

00:32:26.140 line up with sort of the fantasy version we're getting at the moment but what we're seeing is

00:32:30.500 that canadians are just saying well thank god trudeau's gone we want change and they're kicking

00:32:34.300 the tires a bit is this carny guy are the new liberals are they actually change or is it still

00:32:39.620 the conservatives um so i don't particularly when i see does it when i see two pollsters that are

00:32:46.280 both reputable coming with radically different results it really is is a function of a great

00:32:51.480 deal of unsettlingness and that neither of them probably either of the views being measured are

00:32:58.560 probably too firmly held and we can expect change and almost certainly something will be different

00:33:05.360 by the time we get through an election so we're going into a period of turmoil we're going to a

00:33:09.640 period where people want change but we've seen this before right when when Brian Mulroney stepped

00:33:14.980 down and Kim Campbell became leader of the PCs they got back into they went from being that I

00:33:20.360 12% of the polls back up to being in the lead. When, you know, Justin Trudeau's father stepped

00:33:25.260 down and John Turner became the prime minister, again, the incumbent government that had been

00:33:31.600 extremely unpopular went back into the lead. People were excited about something different.

00:33:35.540 Just have a different name when you turn on the news and it's not the same person you can't stand.

00:33:40.900 So that's all been going on. We'll see how it lasts once we get into an election campaign and

00:33:46.700 people start evaluating, you know, Kearney or whoever the Liberal leader is on their own merits.

00:33:52.020 And I think we'll begin to see some convergence in the polls.

00:33:56.440 Well, it is interesting when you look at some of the crosstabs here. So Abacus Poll asks Canadians,

00:34:01.400 what is the top issue that you are looking at in the election? And it shows, if we can show that

00:34:07.340 on the screen there, 61% of Canadians still say that the rising cost of living is the top concern.

00:34:13.220 But what has popped all the way up to second place there is Donald Trump and his administration.

00:34:19.200 And my guess is that number would be even higher after the news that we're getting today.

00:34:23.140 The two issues are sort of becoming linked because people will feel a greater economic pain thanks to these tariffs.

00:34:29.980 And then the next one that I want to show is who do you believe is the party best able to handle these issues?

00:34:36.500 And so you can see that when it comes to cost of living, 37 percent trust the conservatives, only 21 percent say liberals.

00:34:43.640 But then when it comes to Trump, it's 29 percent conservatives and 39 percent liberals.

00:34:48.960 There's a couple of other issues that favor conservatives, including immigration and crime, which are also big issues.

00:34:54.100 But I think that the two big ones there are sort of split.

00:34:57.880 So I want to ask you a bit of a strategy question, Hamish, because some people on the political right are upset with Pierre Polyev saying that he shouldn't be taking the same position when it comes to tariffs, that maybe he should try to be seen as more reconciliatory towards Trump and trying to strike a deal.

00:35:14.720 Now, that probably would seem like political suicide to people who are more liberal voters. And Trump obviously is not a beloved character in Canada. I think most people, the majority of Canadians, overwhelming majority, have a negative opinion on him.

00:35:27.520 So do you think that part of the issue here is that Polyev doesn't have the right strategy?

00:35:33.960 No, I think Polyev's got the right strategy.

00:35:36.180 I think he's moved to, you know, obviously things changed since Trudeau stepped down and these Trump tariffs have dominated the landscape.

00:35:48.320 And I think he's got the right strategy rolling ahead by explaining how he would do things differently.

00:35:54.280 a great example really is taking that any money collected from tariffs and using it to cut taxes

00:35:59.400 to make life more affordable. It's interesting, liberals are just talking about pain. They're

00:36:03.820 not talking about doing anything the other side to make life in any way more affordable for

00:36:06.960 Canadians, which has been what they frankly have done for the last three or four years as we've

00:36:11.600 gone through this inflationary period. So I think Mr. Pauly was on the right approach. I think

00:36:18.020 sucking up to Donald Trump at this point would be absolute political suicide in this country. 0.50

00:36:21.860 I think that I know lots of people who are Trump supporters, many of whom are backing away from that now. 0.98

00:36:29.400 He's showing he is absolutely no fan of Canada and no friend to our country, doesn't value the relationship we have with the United States at any level.

00:36:38.660 And that while some people might still like some of the things that Mr. Trump's doing in the United States, that there is not a market for that political position in Canada.

00:36:48.580 And I think a conciliary tone, frankly, Mr. Trump would simply see that as more weakness and more ability to to push even further and to try to get even more of a change deal, whatever that looks like, that's even better for him.

00:37:07.560 So I think the approach is the right one. Look, the Liberals have a long history of standing up to Americans. It's been part of their brand identity for a very, very long time. So I'm not surprised they're ahead as a party on that issue.

00:37:22.880 I think it's striking that every other issue except for climate change and Trump, the Conservatives, lead the Liberals, even on things like health care and housing.

00:37:31.700 And it's it's been it's pretty striking.

00:37:35.740 But you're right. It's it's certainly a challenge.

00:37:39.640 And but I think Mr. Polio is on the right track.

00:37:43.320 He's got further to go, but he's on the right track and we'll see how things play out in time.

00:37:49.380 Well, so this must have been a gift to Polyev then. Trump was speaking in an interview with

00:37:55.880 Spectator magazine, a U.S. publication, but an American journalist on Friday. And he said that

00:38:02.400 basically President Trump took aim at Pierre Polyev saying his biggest problem is he's not

00:38:07.140 a mega guy, not a Trump guy at all. I think we have an audio clip of this. Let's go to that.

00:38:13.120 Well, I think his biggest problem is he's not a mega guy, you know,

00:38:17.060 He's really not. He's not a Trump guy at all.

00:38:21.100 He's more of a throwback Republican.

00:38:23.340 He's different.

00:38:25.020 Yeah.

00:38:26.480 Making a big mistake. They all make that mistake.

00:38:28.900 They think they're going to be the tough guy and they're going to knock out Trump.

00:38:35.160 And they end up getting the hell beat out of him.

00:38:38.060 So I don't know. I mean, I can't tell you, Pierre.

00:38:40.440 So this gave Polyev the opportunity to hit back. And did we did we lose our video here? Okay,

00:38:51.780 we might have to go audio only. This gives Pierre Polyev the opportunity to hit back

00:38:56.480 and basically just say, I'm not MAGA. You're right, President Trump. I'm not MAGA.

00:39:02.660 And, you know, he puts out this tweet saying that Mr. President is true. I'm not MAGA. I'm

00:39:08.920 For Canada First, Canada has always been America's best friend and ally.

00:39:14.520 We will never be the 51st state.

00:39:16.960 So, Kamish, what do you make of that?

00:39:20.100 Do you think that this was helpful to Polyev at all?

00:39:22.680 Do you think that this will help break the impression that somehow Polyev won't be strong against Trump?

00:39:28.500 I think it will.

00:39:29.820 I think that distinction is important.

00:39:32.840 And I think that there's a certain part of the left who sort of will always see anybody, you know, to the right of Justin Trudeau as sort of a cartoon villain that all gets together in some sort of global right wing conspiracy.

00:39:46.840 But I think the fact that we that, you know, we can draw the line so close, so clear, so separately between Polyev and Trump, I think will be positive for Mr. Polyev.

00:39:58.340 You know, he's a fierce believer and fighter for Canada. And I think that will come out, continue to come out. The speech he gave back in the middle of February was fantastic, explaining, you know, Canada's history and the role that we've played in North America and his vision going forward. I think it was phenomenal. And, you know, I think we'll see a lot more of that. And I think that will resonate with Canadians.

00:40:22.100 Okay, I want to get your opinion on this one, because I think Mark Carney is a front runner.

00:40:25.660 I think that there are some issues with him.

00:40:27.420 But I believe that the liberals will, I mean, he's sort of the person that's been selected to come in and save the Liberal Party from destruction.

00:40:36.200 But Chrystia Freeland is also out there making her case.

00:40:38.800 She was on real time with Bill Maher over the weekend.

00:40:42.380 And it was interesting to see Hamish, because first of all, she throws Justin Trudeau under the bus.

00:40:47.140 Prime Minister Trudeau talks about how virtue signaling and identity politics has been overdone

00:40:52.800 and talks about why she left Trudeau's cabinet. Let's play that clip.

00:40:57.360 Justin Trudeau, who's on his way out, used to be very popular. I mean, he still has his fans, three.

00:41:05.120 And they may be asking, why did you turn on him? Because, you know, you were part of his government.

00:41:09.920 What was it?

00:41:10.780 My party, we're actually called the Liberal Party. And I am an old school liberal.

00:41:16.580 And liberals in Canada win when we are focused on people and on what they need in their lives.

00:41:24.860 And we lose when people think that we're focused on virtue signaling and identity politics.

00:41:34.000 So apparently she's an old school liberal.

00:41:36.660 I haven't seen much of that over the last few years.

00:41:39.140 I don't know if freezing bank accounts and using the Emergencies Act is really what we consider old school liberals.

00:41:46.040 She also takes a swipe at Pierre Polyev, calling him Maple Syrup Mega.

00:41:51.680 Let's play that clip.

00:41:53.740 And the guy you will be running against, Paul Pierre...

00:41:58.140 How do we say his name? Pierre...

00:42:02.560 Well, I call him Maple Syrup Mega.

00:42:05.900 Or...

00:42:06.300 So, it's funny because Bill Maher's painting it as if it's a given

00:42:15.160 that she's going to be running against Parapallia.

00:42:17.060 I don't think that's going to happen.

00:42:18.760 But interesting that she's trying to make that happen.

00:42:22.240 She's been using that nickname a lot,

00:42:23.920 calling him Maple Mega,

00:42:24.800 but I don't think it's resonating.

00:42:26.180 I don't think it works.

00:42:27.620 No, and I think if you're trying to make someone

00:42:29.440 sound like they're going to be pro-American,

00:42:32.860 associating them with the word maple

00:42:34.220 is probably kind of a poor branding choice.

00:42:38.440 Look, I mean, it just further shows

00:42:39.980 that Christopher Freeland's the worst communicator

00:42:42.460 in the Western world.

00:42:43.300 and it's one of the reasons why she's not going to be the Liberal leader in a few days.

00:42:48.180 Well, it was interesting that she, because Bill, sorry, Mark Carney went on with Jon Stewart

00:42:53.080 and that's how he launched his campaign and then you see Freeland on with Bill Maher.

00:42:57.000 So it's interesting that they're choosing to go to an American audience, right?

00:42:59.940 Like the Liberals are this like, hey, they literally fund the Canadian media.

00:43:03.580 They literally bail them out, fund them, put all this cash into CBC

00:43:06.740 and then when it comes to trying to reach their audience,

00:43:08.620 they know that no one's watching the Canadian show so they go on the American shows,

00:43:12.780 which tells you everything you need to know.

00:43:15.580 So, Hamish, what should we be looking out for on Sunday

00:43:18.460 with the Liberal leadership race being announced?

00:43:21.340 Who do you think is going to win?

00:43:23.800 Do you think it's going to be close?

00:43:25.040 And what should we be looking for?

00:43:27.120 I think it's going to be Carney.

00:43:28.660 All the indicators seem to be it's him.

00:43:30.520 Not just, you know, the big endorsements,

00:43:32.840 but a lot of the behind-the-scenes organizers.

00:43:34.780 This is a race that's about getting people signed up, 0.97

00:43:38.060 getting them registered, and then getting them to vote.

00:43:40.700 It's an on-ground organization that matters a ton.

00:43:44.480 Carney has the money, and he's got a lot of the good organizers with him.

00:43:47.440 So that should make sure he wins.

00:43:51.380 It'll be interesting.

00:43:52.160 The two things I'm looking out for, number one, is overall how many people actually vote engaged in this process.

00:43:57.100 There's a lot of media hype about Carney.

00:43:58.860 There's a lot of focus in the polls about Carney.

00:44:02.820 But when you look at the pictures of his events, the crowds aren't that big.

00:44:07.140 His engagement on social media is respectable but not incredible.

00:44:10.280 um the so the number of people who actually came out and voted is going to be extremely important

00:44:16.220 you know it's about 400,000 people signed up but then they have to register and then vote

00:44:21.240 um so we'll see what that number is uh and I think it's going to be quite small when you

00:44:26.640 compare it to the over 600,000 who voted in the conservative uh leadership race a couple of years

00:44:31.680 ago or two and a half years ago so overall it's going to be interesting and then I think we're

00:44:35.680 going to look for other areas, particularly in Quebec. I mean, Mark Carney's French is fairly

00:44:40.400 appalling for someone trying to be prime minister, especially with a large electoral, a party with a

00:44:45.540 large electoral base in Quebec. And I'm very interested to see if any of the others, none of

00:44:51.140 whom are frankly, you know, particularly strong Quebec sympathetic politicians, but if they're

00:44:57.260 able to do anything there because of that. So that will be very interesting to see if that's

00:45:02.800 what I'm looking out for. Well, it is just interesting that Mark Carney, I mean, he's not

00:45:07.560 a politician. He hasn't really done this before. He's never been elected to anything. So if he

00:45:11.120 becomes party leader and prime minister, he'll be a prime minister without being a member of

00:45:15.500 parliament, without having a seat. I don't know that they're going to quickly go to a by-election

00:45:19.200 or just trigger an election. I do want to make a point though, Hamish, that he'll mention that,

00:45:24.560 oh, I'm not a politician and kind of use that as a plus, which is something that Donald Trump

00:45:28.520 also says, but for Donald Trump, the thing about him not being a politician was that he was a

00:45:33.560 little rough around the edges, not politically correct. He would make statements that to the

00:45:37.160 political ear sounded outrageous, but to the American, maybe like the middle of the road

00:45:41.120 American, they actually liked what he was saying. And he also had this business background. So he

00:45:45.520 was going to take business mindset and apply it to politics. I'm not saying that it's going well,

00:45:50.580 but that was his shtick. With Carney, it's like, what is his career? Well, he's been an

00:45:55.580 unelected bureaucrat who sort of seems like he tries to take a lot of credit for things that

00:46:01.520 he may or may not have really been involved in. And, you know, his career is that he's a bureaucrat.

00:46:07.760 So, you know, I don't think that that is really has the same kind of like interest for the people

00:46:13.520 to say like, OK, well, he's not a politician. We'll give him a pass because he's been operating

00:46:16.900 in this political world for so long. I see that as a major weakness for Carney. But I did want

00:46:22.440 to ask you, you can comment on that, but I also want to ask you, when do you think that the general

00:46:26.480 election will get triggered? Because we've heard rumors and it might happen immediately, like within

00:46:30.360 24 or 48 hours. Other people say, no, he's going to want to be prime minister for a month or two

00:46:35.900 and get the hang of it, maybe even wait until the G7 conference. So comment on Carney and then tell

00:46:41.220 us when you think the election is going to happen. Yeah, I think politicians say I'm not a politician

00:46:45.260 is something that nobody believes. The way Trump was able to communicate that is exactly as you

00:46:50.260 said, but he didn't act like a politician. He didn't sound like any politician anybody had

00:46:53.700 ever heard in 2015 and 2016, right? It was completely different. And that's how he didn't

00:46:57.500 have to say, I'm not a politician because he didn't act like one. You know, Mark Carney

00:47:01.180 acts exactly like sort of an identikit, mass produced politician. And he keeps lying about

00:47:10.260 being involved in political things, or he claims he helped Paul Martin balance the budget, which

00:47:15.760 he didn't. But also if you're trying to say you're not part of the system claiming you are,

00:47:20.260 It was weird, and then claims that he was key to saving Canada during the global financial crisis when it was Jim Flaherty making the tough calls.

00:47:33.920 And, of course, Jim's not here to defend at all.

00:47:38.120 But, again, if he's trying to be a politician, he shouldn't be associating himself with all these political-type things.

00:47:43.940 He's completely, I think, doing it completely backwards there.

00:47:46.320 But I will say that, you know, the rumor mill in Ottawa, for what it's worth, is that, you know, Carney will get sworn in as Prime Minister a few days after he wins the Liberal leadership, I'm not sure exactly which day, and then call an election about a week later.

00:48:02.620 That might work.

00:48:04.180 It prevents him having to go for a by-election to get into the House, obviously.

00:48:08.380 Although there is bizarrely a by-election that was called on Sunday for Halifax.

00:48:12.820 It's open right now.

00:48:13.520 So maybe he could jump in as a Liberal candidate right now there.

00:48:17.860 But I will say that the last time someone tried this was John Turner, who was not a

00:48:25.340 member of Parliament, became Prime Minister, and called an election 10 days later and took

00:48:29.680 his party to the worst defeat in in canadian history so you know hopefully that's what happens

00:48:34.540 again okay well we'll have to uh have you back amish thanks for joining the show it's always a

00:48:38.700 pleasure to have you on hear your insights thank you so much for joining us thank you all right

00:48:44.160 everyone thank you so much for tuning in we'll be back again tomorrow with all the news i'm

00:48:47.640 Candice Malcolm. This is the Candice Malcolm Show. Thank you and God bless.

Juno News - March 04, 2025

Trade War reaction ⧸ Trudeau LIVE press conference ⧸ Are the polls legit (ft. Hamish Marshall)

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