Juno News - UCP comes out ahead on bungled announcement

00:00:00.000 hey everyone welcome back to the alberta roundup i'm your host rachel emanuel i hope that you guys

00:00:19.040 are having a great week so far this week i'm bringing you a special edition of the alberta

00:00:23.840 roundup called election watch for the next four weeks of the show i will be joined by panelists

00:00:28.480 and we'll discuss the top campaign moments of the week as the 2023 alberta provincial election

00:00:34.400 campaign between the ucp and the ndp rages on this week i'm joined by chris sims she's the alberta

00:00:41.200 director of the canadian taxpayers federation and evan menzies he's a senior campaign strategist

00:00:46.640 at crestview strategy and he's the former director of communications for the united conservative party

00:00:52.480 i'm joined by them both now well evan and chris thank you so much for joining me today on the

00:00:56.720 alberta roundup one of the things i wanted to start by discussing is just some of the emerging

00:01:01.280 trends coming out of this provincial election campaign i suspect that coming out of two years

00:01:05.920 of the covet 19 pandemic we're seeing runaway inflation of course many voters are upset about

00:01:10.720 that people are definitely penny pinching so affordability of course health care and public

00:01:15.440 safety i'm figuring are some of the bread and butter issues that we're going to be focusing on

00:01:19.760 the campaign chris what are you hearing from voters what do you expect this campaign is really going to

00:01:24.480 be about we're hearing the same thing that you guys are there rachel uh i used to get a phone call

00:01:30.240 once every six weeks or so from a working person saying something like you know what i'm busting

00:01:34.480 my butt but i still can't make ends meet we're now getting a phone call like that kind of every 10 days

00:01:40.480 so it's a lot more intense even here in alberta we are still seeing record demand for food banks 0.97

00:01:46.720 and often among working people so that's a big high indicator that they need to take inflation

00:01:52.560 seriously i will say uh that here in alberta we're still doing better than most we don't even have

00:01:58.320 a provincial gas tax here and it seems to be a serious dedication to fighting higher taxes so

00:02:03.440 we're happy to see that and evan outside of some of those main issues that we just discussed like

00:02:09.280 health care do you think those types of topics are going to be landing with voters or do you think

00:02:13.360 that they're a little bit tired of politics of course we just came out of a ucp leadership race

00:02:17.600 not too long ago and do you think that it's going to be harder for the parties to actually

00:02:21.440 land and to resonate with voters in this campaign yeah i think uh one of the advantages that the ucp

00:02:27.760 had in in this first week was danielle smith coming out with that immediate uh huge income tax cut 1.00

00:02:34.240 announcement sort of framing the uh the terms of the debate in week one uh favorably to the ucp and

00:02:41.760 i'm not sure a lot of voters are are hyper tuned in quite yet but certainly when uh for the issues

00:02:48.400 that have come up in week one so far uh the ucp i think have an edge to date uh folks uh will have

00:02:56.000 been telling pollsters this for a long time that affordability is a major issue chris just

00:02:59.920 touched on the fact that it's something people will talk about all the time uh even with the provincial

00:03:05.200 gas tax cut there's still the federal carbon tax it's driving up the prices at the pumps uh there's a

00:03:10.480 lot of things going on inflation still out of control so i think for the ucp uh if they can

00:03:15.280 continue to just be seen to have their brand tied with the fact that they are the party that's helping

00:03:20.400 drive prices down or at least keep things less crazy than they have been that's to their net advantage

00:03:26.160 the ndp if they obviously want to talk about health care i don't really think they've got their

00:03:30.400 message out so far this week and uh if things stay this way i think it's uh you know come election

00:03:35.440 day at ucp will bear positive fruits sure speaking of that tax cut for my viewers who aren't aware who

00:03:41.920 haven't heard about it yet on monday daniel smith came out with sort of a pinnacle campaign announcement

00:03:47.040 she said a ucp government if re-elected would create a new eight percent tax bracket on income

00:03:52.320 under 60 000 so that's saving of about 760 for an individual or closer to 1500 per family and then for

00:04:00.080 those albertans that are earning less than 60 000 annually they'll see a 20 reduction to their

00:04:05.760 provincial tax bill chris maybe you could weigh on this what would the impact of a tax cut like this

00:04:10.800 be on the alberta economy especially when people are really reigning in their savings oh it's it's

00:04:15.760 huge and this is something that we push for all the time every now and then you'll see a politician

00:04:20.480 because it's easier for retail politics to give you little specified targeted tax credits here and

00:04:25.680 there that's like giving out beef jerky when we want the whole steak and their announcement on monday

00:04:32.320 to give us the whole steak of boom you're going to have a new lower income tax bracket and it's going 0.99

00:04:38.880 to save people money across the board those are exactly the savings that taxpayers need and so what

00:04:44.240 that does is that number one helps them pay their bills number two it attracts more people to alberta

00:04:50.640 because if you're a family in some place like british columbia or ontario and you take a look

00:04:55.200 and you realize how much money you're going to be saving when you combine that with a lack of a pst

00:04:59.920 you're going to have even more moving trucks being booked here so that is a significant tax cut

00:05:05.440 in fact i may say and this is um kind of a gentle criticism because they were both two good announcements

00:05:10.960 they should have broken up their huge income tax cut by creating an eight percent one for lower income

00:05:16.320 folks and the fact that they're going to extend their fuel tax reduction so they made those announcements on

00:05:23.440 the same day and that both of those are significant the fact we don't have a fuel tax that saves you

00:05:29.920 fifteen dollars every time you're filling up a light duty pickup truck that is serious money that

00:05:35.600 is a chicken and a jug of milk every time you go into the grocery store so they should push that more

00:05:41.680 you know fair enough chris but when we're talking about tax cuts it's not exactly the sexiest issue and

00:05:46.160 you know unless you're a very strong-minded libertarian you know surprise to voters the ndp are coming out

00:05:51.360 promising so-called free things one of the things alberta ndp leader rachel nolly has promised is free

00:05:56.720 birth control i'm wondering how that is going to resonate with the female demographic in calgary

00:06:01.280 where we know much of the election is going to be decided evan what's your take yeah i'm uh when they

00:06:08.080 first made the announcement uh it's one of those types of policy announcement announcements no matter

00:06:12.160 where you sort of fall on the political spectrum i think for more uh what we usually call like low

00:06:17.840 information voters just being that they're not consuming politics 30 minutes 60 minutes a day

00:06:23.040 it's one of those announcements that uh is one of those like yeah that makes a lot of sense

00:06:27.600 announcements so i think for a lot of um voters in calgary that would probably be their response

00:06:33.280 i'm not sure it's a huge uh like swing vote issue that will um you know pull ucp voters away into the ndp

00:06:41.120 tent or or shift independent independent voters on election day um i'm i i personally think over

00:06:48.000 time this type of concept of uh having free free birth control or at least having a an accent a way

00:06:56.240 to access a plan for birth control will probably become more and more popular over time it's up to

00:07:00.800 conservatives to determine uh the most conservative way to frame a policy around that i just think that

00:07:05.600 um again just the reaction from the population will be like yeah it makes a lot of sense uh i can see

00:07:11.760 why that would be needed uh on those terms but at the end of the day i think for the ndp it's mainly

00:07:17.600 just a base motivator this is what they're going to use to try and get their people to show up on

00:07:22.720 election day whether it actually pulls anyone out of the ucp tent i'm i'm skeptical right now

00:07:29.360 i wanted to do a quick polling update all the polls that we've seen come out in recent weeks

00:07:34.080 seem to show the ucp and the albert ndp neck and neck one poll might have the ucp up by a couple

00:07:40.160 points and then the next poll will show the ndp up by a couple points evan are you seeing any

00:07:44.400 emerging trends coming out of the polling that we've seen so far yeah one of the things i'm

00:07:49.520 watching you know all these polls always have their own like little variations within them and

00:07:54.800 obviously that old adage wait until election day but one of the things i've noticed both from

00:07:59.440 publicly released polls and some that i've heard from that are more internal uh is that there is

00:08:05.040 positive momentum for the ucp in calgary right now uh it's you know again it's early days i have old

00:08:12.240 battle scars when i worked for danielle smith uh during the 2012 wild rose election and we were

00:08:17.520 pulling great for the first couple weeks and then it obviously fell apart in the last week so

00:08:21.600 i don't think the ucp should be pumping their tires too much quite yet but i think there's some

00:08:27.280 positive momentum heading towards the ucp their campaign plan seems pretty straightforward uh they

00:08:32.240 want to be boring they want to stick to their bread and butter issues like affordability tax cuts like

00:08:37.120 we had already mentioned they're able to stay on those messages not sort of lose the plot over the

00:08:43.360 next few weeks i think their brand their message will will carry the day um the ndp have hit a ceiling

00:08:50.480 in calgary in my view i don't think there's any new ndp voters out there there might be some undecideds

00:08:55.920 who could shift their way at election day but the ucp's challenge in the city is getting uh what i

00:09:02.080 call ucp shy voters to show up at advanced polls and on election day there's still a large section

00:09:08.720 of ucp voters in the city who are just not quite sure what to make of danielle smith quite yet uh she's

00:09:14.800 been premier since october but obviously have some long memories still trying to uh sift through those

00:09:21.600 old wild rose pc debates back in the day so i think danielle as premier has done a good job

00:09:28.400 showing those voters that they're welcome in the tent and she obviously has to her job as leaders to 0.91

00:09:33.120 make sure that they show up uh for those advanced poll and uh advanced poll dates and on election day

00:09:40.960 sure and arguably you know with the ndp attacking danielle smith and saying she can't be trusted or that

00:09:45.840 she's crazy that's some of the sentiments that we've seen in the rhetoric they're trying to build 0.98

00:09:49.840 around smith the ucp's focus on running what you're saying is a boring campaign would be a very

00:09:54.720 good one just to show voters that they are trustworthy and they are consistent now when we

00:09:58.880 look at the polling numbers chris we know that the alberta ndp spent six million dollars on attack

00:10:04.240 ads in the pre-writ campaign period i'm not sure that that is actually having an impact in calgary

00:10:09.840 do you know if that has been successful has that actually been able to swing voters over in the

00:10:13.840 calgary or does it seem largely like that was a swing and a mess that's a great question i will

00:10:19.600 say anecdotally speaking and taking off my ctf hat for a moment uh even when i'm watching the playoff

00:10:25.120 hockey like i'm watching the edmonton oilers uh i see attack ad after attack ad and i don't see

00:10:31.440 answering ads usually they match and i don't know why there aren't answering ucp ads abutted next to

00:10:39.200 those ndp ones also even on local radio so i'm here in lethbridge and i'm listening to the country

00:10:44.880 station or the rock station it is wall to wall every time they go to a break i'm not surprised

00:10:50.320 they spent that amount of money because it sure sounds like it uh it's always a rachel notley

00:10:54.720 attack ad on danielle smith so if that sways people uh who are on the fence that's a pretty good question

00:11:02.640 uh i will say that the ucp has brought in some heavy hitters and seasoned campaign managers so

00:11:10.080 steve outhouse uh is a very experienced campaign manager out of ottawa i worked with him there

00:11:16.480 when i was a staff member and largely as a as a journalist on parliament hill with the gallery

00:11:23.040 and what i find interesting about that is that there's always a pool of staffers that will hang

00:11:28.320 out or talk to each other even from other parties and i don't know anyone who's ever said anything

00:11:33.600 bad about the guy after 20 something years which is remarkable uh from from that perspective of a

00:11:39.760 place like ottawa and so i think he's probably got a pretty solid game plan the question is what don't

00:11:46.720 they don't know anything can happen in three weeks and there's always uh some sort of risk of an

00:11:52.480 october surprise so we're really early like evan said we'll have to see speaking of surprises

00:11:58.000 there was a bit of a hiccup in the ucp campaign this week on tuesday i'm sure you guys caught this

00:12:02.800 i'm just going to give a brief recap for my viewers basically on tuesday ucp candidates brian

00:12:07.840 gene and rebecca schultz had a big announcement they had two independent reports that said that

00:12:12.640 rachel notley's plan to reach a net zero electricity grid by 2035 would cost the province and taxpayers 87

00:12:19.600 billion dollars they had added together two separate reports on this issue the one was the aso report

00:12:25.040 that's the alberta electric system operator they estimated the cost of the actual power generation

00:12:29.920 grid at 52 billion dollars and then they had a navius research report finding that the opportunity

00:12:35.760 cost of the economy would be 35 billion dollars between now and 2035 that's for a total of 87

00:12:42.640 billion dollars however navius research came out and basically said their numbers were being

00:12:46.880 mischaracterized they said reports in the media pegged their report at almost double what the actual

00:12:51.840 cost would be eventually it seemed that the ucp and navius came to an agreement the ucp released a

00:12:57.120 tweet their war rooms be specific released that tweet in acceptance with navius they had worked on this

00:13:02.480 statement together kind of coming on an agreement of the specific wording that should be used that

00:13:07.520 being said the sentiment is sort of that when you're explaining you're losing evan do you think

00:13:12.400 this was a missed opportunity for the party now it seems like they've had to explain so much

00:13:16.560 what these numbers are do you think that that really distracted from the issue at hand here

00:13:22.240 yeah it's possible but i i kind of see it from another point of view i wasn't sure

00:13:27.600 as i was following the press coverage from from that press announcement until navius put out that

00:13:32.080 tweet i wasn't sure it was getting the coverage it deserved and it turned out that the next day

00:13:37.120 this is all everyone is talking about and it's an important topic to talk about uh listen when the ndp

00:13:42.240 were in charge they uh they they took coal off the grid moved us to 70 30 natural gas and renewables

00:13:50.080 those renewables are intermittent and not reliable our power grid is going to face significant issues

00:13:54.960 in years ahead and this idea of alberta getting to net zero in just 12 years with our current power mix

00:14:02.560 is something that needs to be discussed this election campaign so i think the fact that you know maybe

00:14:07.760 there was a bit of a communications blip sure but it sounds to me at the end of the day that

00:14:12.560 navius at least concedes it's going to cost us in the tens of billions of dollars as ratepayers

00:14:17.840 taxpayers could be on the hook for even more and beyond that discussion just what it's going to cost

00:14:23.520 us as taxpayers and as ratepayers uh what what what's our power grid actually going to look like

00:14:29.680 how reliable will our power be when it's hot in the summer and cold in the winter that's not at

00:14:34.640 all clear to me with rachel notley's plan for net zero and i i think um i'm glad it's been brought

00:14:40.320 up i'm glad that um reporters caught interest in this story once they saw a communications blip because

00:14:47.280 quite frankly rachel notley and the ndp are hoping no one really talks about this election so maybe this

00:14:51.440 is maybe it's one of those things where it's an opportunity for the ucp to keep pressing the issue

00:14:55.760 uh certainly for the ndp they wanted to talk about the ucp's record on health care over the last few days

00:15:02.240 they haven't so it's it's kind of campaigns are interesting and they're unpredictable so

00:15:07.360 that's kind of my read on it over the last 24 hours yeah but i think that's a fair perspective

00:15:12.160 maybe this blip has actually caused the situation to get more media attention than it otherwise would

00:15:16.560 have i talked to the ucp about it this week and they said even if you look at just the 52 billion

00:15:21.840 dollar number that's still the most expensive political campaign promise in alberta political

00:15:26.320 history and they've also said what you just said now that rachel notley doesn't want to talk

00:15:30.480 about what this is going to cost chris you can weigh in here you're our numbers expert has not

00:15:35.040 only spoken about the cost of this and what do you think it would actually mean for alberta taxpayers

00:15:39.600 if this pledge of net neutrality by 2035 goes forward that's a great question i was listening

00:15:44.880 to her interview on calgary radio station yesterday and she very deftly moved around those questions of

00:15:50.800 numbers even though the host was pressing saying hey like how are you going to pay for this you're

00:15:54.960 promising to balance the budget now there's always asterisks around that and you're proud you're

00:15:59.680 promising to not raise personal income taxes so where are you going to get this money from and

00:16:03.360 she was ducking and weaving the way most seasoned politicians do i think to evan's point that's very 0.61

00:16:09.280 clever that's a good point and a good way of looking at it it kept it in the media where

00:16:13.040 otherwise wouldn't have been even though it was kind of a comms-ish mistake in communications

00:16:18.800 and so what i was surprised by is seeing the contradiction come forward from the research group

00:16:25.120 itself that's a conversation that should have happened last week just saying hey just so we're

00:16:30.640 clear these are the numbers we're going out with this is the kind of wording we're going out with

00:16:34.640 everybody cool yes everybody cool uh we work with numbers here at the taxpayers federation all the time

00:16:40.080 and you don't want to get undermined as you're trotting out your message however again to evan's point

00:16:45.680 it did keep it in the media and i think if it's 50 billion 30 billion or 80 billion that is a heck of

00:16:54.160 a lot of money and i think the average albertan is going to be wondering how am i going to pay for

00:16:59.280 this to give people an idea of a billion a billion build you a pretty good looking hospital so instead

00:17:06.720 of imagining 30 billion dollars picture 30 new hospitals or 50 new hospitals so that's a better

00:17:15.680 rule of thumb when people are trying to wrap their head around these big numbers a billion dollars

00:17:19.920 is pretty close to a hospital bill well i think that's a great place to leave it for today chris

00:17:23.840 and emmon thank you so much for joining our show i know our viewers will appreciate your input viewers

00:17:28.480 thank you so much for tuning in today to this special edition of the alberta roundup as always if you're

00:17:32.960 able please consider supporting independent media you can do that over at donate.tnc.news thanks for

00:17:38.160 listening and have a great weekend

Juno News - May 06, 2023

UCP comes out ahead on bungled announcement

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript