Juno News - Vaccine passports were a conspiracy theory – now they’re the new normal

00:00:00.000 Welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.

00:00:06.480 This is the Andrew Lawton Show, brought to you by True North.

00:00:12.900 Coming up, the never-ending vaccine passport, compelled speech, and rising government spending.

00:00:19.840 The Andrew Lawton Show starts right now.

00:00:25.940 Hello and welcome to Canada's Most Irreverent Talk Show.

00:00:29.720 It is Thursday, October 14th, 2021.

00:00:32.800 Great to have you tuned in to the Andrew Lawton Show here on True North.

00:00:37.020 We have a great show planned for you.

00:00:39.340 We'll be talking...

00:00:39.860 Well, I say great, I should probably stop saying that,

00:00:42.940 because oftentimes we are talking about things that are not exactly fantastic.

00:00:47.320 And I've often said that, you know, the worst things are for the world and the country,

00:00:50.600 the better they are for the show, because if everything were great,

00:00:53.640 I would just be able to say, you know, hey, what's up?

00:00:56.720 Okay, see you next week.

00:00:57.960 So it's great in the sense that we've got a lot of things to get through,

00:01:01.980 and we'll talk about them in a way that hopefully is not totally depressing.

00:01:05.560 But at the end of the day, I don't want to oversell it,

00:01:08.060 because things are pretty grim if you are a freedom lover.

00:01:11.580 If you're not a freedom lover, then, I mean, you're probably not listening to the show,

00:01:14.700 but you're probably also not all that displeased with how things are.

00:01:18.620 Later on, we'll be talking to Fraser Institute Senior Economist Jake Fuss

00:01:22.940 about the state of government spending.

00:01:26.120 Again, not exactly a hopeful message.

00:01:29.000 Also going to be talking in the next little bit

00:01:30.720 about the never-ending vaccine passport infrastructure,

00:01:35.060 a theme I've spoken about in the past,

00:01:36.860 but we have some new evidence that it's going to be sticking around for quite a while.

00:01:41.440 But before we get into the swing of things,

00:01:43.280 I will start with a bit of personal news.

00:01:44.960 It is my birthday today, so I can indulge,

00:01:48.040 and you have to oblige, I think, for the next 30 seconds anyway.

00:01:51.100 I launched a newsletter this week over at Substack.

00:01:54.980 You can subscribe by heading over to andrewlotton.substack.com.

00:01:59.780 The newsletter is called Andrew Lawton.

00:02:01.900 Very creative, I know.

00:02:03.620 And why I've done this is because for several years now,

00:02:06.240 I've written a regular column, and I've moved it around.

00:02:09.580 It's moved around on me, and every now and then, I'll write in different places.

00:02:13.880 But I was kind of at the point where I felt like I needed to have a home that was mine

00:02:18.300 for that product and for other things that I want to share

00:02:21.380 that don't necessarily fit into other things that I'm doing.

00:02:24.500 And let me say, for starters, this has nothing to do with my work at True North

00:02:29.060 in the sense that I'm not leaving.

00:02:30.580 I'm still going to do my show.

00:02:31.800 I'm still going to write for True North.

00:02:33.120 I'm still going to do all of that stuff.

00:02:34.660 If anything, it is a great compliment to my show

00:02:37.340 because I'm able to extrapolate on some of the things I talk about in the show

00:02:40.940 and perhaps cover some of the stories that don't make it into the show.

00:02:44.380 But I wanted to do it, and I've gotten some great feedback already

00:02:47.640 from some of you who have subscribed.

00:02:49.280 If you want to, you can head on over to andrewlaughton.substack.com.

00:02:53.320 And by the way, one thing I'll say, it's a completely free newsletter.

00:02:56.460 You have the option to get a paid subscription.

00:02:59.060 I'm not telling you to do that at all.

00:03:00.880 In fact, if you want to put some money towards independent media,

00:03:03.400 do support the work we're doing here at True North.

00:03:05.860 This is where I'm doing the bulk of my work and will continue to.

00:03:09.220 The newsletter is just a little add-on.

00:03:11.560 But I wanted to say that, yes, I'm doing it, but no, I'm not leaving here.

00:03:15.360 Quite the contrary.

00:03:16.280 I'm doing more and more work with True North and absolutely loving it.

00:03:19.960 Let's talk about what's happening in Alberta, though.

00:03:23.240 Last week, Premier Jason Kenney gave a press conference in which he announced

00:03:27.400 that Albertans could now download a QR code to use as a vaccine passport

00:03:32.620 as the province expands this program,

00:03:35.340 which Jason Kenney for months had said he would never do

00:03:37.840 and then all of a sudden did.

00:03:39.380 Now, the case in Alberta, as we hear from the Alberta public health officials,

00:03:43.500 is quite dire.

00:03:44.480 They've got ICU capacity issues.

00:03:46.980 They've got hospital issues.

00:03:48.520 And I don't even want to get into all of that right now.

00:03:50.740 I want to talk about the long-term forecast of these measures

00:03:54.420 like the vaccine passport, which I'm very insistent will not go away easily.

00:04:01.340 The fundamental nature of these types of programs is that government,

00:04:05.520 like government infrastructure in general, is not in the business of dismantling barriers.

00:04:10.360 What government wants to do is build things and then keep them going

00:04:13.740 because they allow the bureaucracy to have a raison d'etre and so on.

00:04:17.920 And this is where we are.

00:04:19.060 Now, I asked Jason Kenney at this press conference about what the off-ramp was.

00:04:24.200 The question, I think, was a very important one

00:04:26.080 and one that no one else has been asking in Alberta or elsewhere.

00:04:28.940 What are the metrics for success that would make the vaccine passport obsolete? 0.95

00:04:35.520 Because remember, with a lot of the other lockdown measures,

00:04:38.560 the government officials would say,

00:04:40.220 OK, when our case counts are here, when our hospital capacity is here,

00:04:43.760 then we'll drop them.

00:04:44.640 And they did this as a way to have some transparency,

00:04:47.600 but also motivate people to get through this process

00:04:49.980 and, quote unquote, do the right thing.

00:04:52.480 And here's the exchange with Premier Kenney.

00:04:54.700 For the restriction exemption program and other restrictive measures that are in place,

00:05:01.280 is there an off-ramp that's baked into this?

00:05:03.880 Is there a point or a metric at which you think this program is no longer necessary

00:05:08.620 that you can share either with a scan of hospitalizations or simply vaccination rates?

00:05:13.820 Thank you, Andrew.

00:05:14.760 The straight answer to that is no.

00:05:18.100 We have not defined a particular criteria to end the program.

00:05:24.380 I fully expect that we will have it in place through at least the first quarter of next year of 2022

00:05:30.800 because we are headed into an uncertain period.

00:05:34.780 Even if we continue to see downward momentum in the case numbers and hospitalization numbers,

00:05:42.020 even if we exit this fourth wave through the month of October,

00:05:47.200 we will have to be on our guard as we go into colder weather.

00:05:51.700 When people spend more time indoors, we will head into seasonal headwinds in terms of viral spread.

00:06:00.840 And we will also may be experiencing waning protection both from naturally acquired immunity through prior infection

00:06:11.400 and potentially through vaccines as well.

00:06:15.380 The jury is still out on exactly when,

00:06:18.880 but we do know that both of those kinds of immunity from prior infection and from vaccines can wane over time.

00:06:25.600 So between weather, seasonal patterns, more indoor activity, and the potential for waning protection,

00:06:34.380 we don't want to let down our guard, let's say in November, if we get out of this fourth wave,

00:06:40.900 only to potentially face a Christmas spike or a winter spike.

00:06:46.160 So I think we've just adopted the program.

00:06:51.280 It seems to be working well.

00:06:52.960 The businesses with whom I've spoken generally seem happy with it.

00:06:56.920 Many of them say this is exactly what they wanted,

00:06:59.160 and they thank us for having put it in place.

00:07:01.360 I want to thank the vast majority of Albertans for cooperating with the program.

00:07:05.320 It seems to have had at least some effect in helping to increase vaccination rates

00:07:09.200 and therefore probably reducing case numbers and hospitalization.

00:07:12.720 So we think the program is working well.

00:07:14.560 It will be in place at least until the first quarter of next year.

00:07:17.140 We'll assess it then based on COVID trends here and around the world.

00:07:21.660 You know, on one hand, I appreciate the direct response.

00:07:25.160 Simply put, no, there's no metric.

00:07:27.620 But on the other hand, I am deeply concerned about what will become a permanent system,

00:07:33.240 a permanent program.

00:07:35.020 And you may think, well, okay, well, why does it need to be permanent?

00:07:37.420 I mean, once you're vaccinated, you're vaccinated.

00:07:39.220 You can go to restaurants and all of that.

00:07:41.320 And as Jason Kenney says, it's only going to be through the first quarter of 2022 at least,

00:07:46.440 and then they'll reevaluate.

00:07:48.220 Well, by that time, we may well be looking at additional shots required to be considered

00:07:54.320 fully vaccinated.

00:07:55.860 This is the experience in Israel where starting a couple of weeks ago, if you were fully vaccinated,

00:08:01.140 you are no longer fully vaccinated.

00:08:03.040 You've been de-vaccinated.

00:08:04.680 You were fully vaccinated one day.

00:08:06.120 The next day, you were just two thirds vaccinated.

00:08:08.520 And if you wanted to get your third shot, that's the only way that you can reclaim that green

00:08:14.700 pass, which is required to go around and engage in civil society.

00:08:18.800 And there's already talk about fourth shots and beyond.

00:08:21.620 And at a certain point, it's like the booster shot is every three months.

00:08:24.820 And then that's what you need to start enjoying things in life.

00:08:27.840 And I asked Premier Kenney about that.

00:08:30.240 And here's what he said.

00:08:31.800 We've seen in other jurisdictions, notably Israel, that at a certain point, two shots is not

00:08:37.060 enough to be classed as fully vaccinated for their vaccine passport.

00:08:41.180 I know Alberta has expanded the eligibility for booster shot.

00:08:45.440 Is this a possibility that to be considered fully vaccinated for accessing all of these

00:08:50.480 things under the restrictions exemption program, there could be a point at which two shots is

00:08:55.060 not enough?

00:08:56.360 That's not where we're at now.

00:08:58.220 So far, we continue to see very strong protection from the second shot, the two-dose regime that

00:09:06.140 we've maintained for the broad population.

00:09:09.200 And as you know, 90% of our ICU patients with COVID are unvaccinated.

00:09:16.600 So that's just a reflection of just how strong the vaccines have been here.

00:09:21.120 But we will closely monitor the data.

00:09:25.340 You've mentioned Israel.

00:09:26.520 We have the advantage, we and countries around the world, of closely watching the Israeli experience

00:09:33.340 to study the impact of their widespread application of booster shots to the population.

00:09:45.440 So we'll be closely watching all of those trends.

00:09:48.900 I won't rule out the possibility that if we find, you know, over the winter, a significant

00:09:55.700 decline in the protective effect of the vaccines, that we may very well receive advice from our

00:10:04.020 Advisory Committee on Immunization, as well as the National Advisory Committee on Immunization

00:10:08.040 for broader application of booster shots.

00:10:11.240 So we'll cross that bridge.

00:10:12.820 If and when we come to it, I wouldn't rule that out.

00:10:15.080 But it's not something that is under current consideration.

00:10:17.380 The answer is not yet, not now.

00:10:20.600 But at the same time, it's also that we're monitoring and we're looking to see what Israel

00:10:24.700 does and how Israel's experience unfolds.

00:10:27.520 And if we need to learn from there and reevaluate, we will.

00:10:31.340 So a couple of main takeaways from that.

00:10:34.120 And again, I appreciate the clarity.

00:10:35.900 I appreciate that he wasn't beating around it.

00:10:37.740 But the two big things that I take is number one, there's no designated off ramp for vaccine

00:10:42.460 passports.

00:10:43.020 And number two, we are not ruling out the idea of requiring boosters.

00:10:47.380 For being considered fully vaccinated.

00:10:50.180 And we'll look at Israel to see how their experience unfolds.

00:10:53.600 So what we take from that, and this is, again, just one province, but it's a province who's,

00:10:58.100 I think, even more averse to some of these measures than other places like Ontario and

00:11:02.920 Quebec and Manitoba.

00:11:04.480 Alberta is saying, yeah, we could be in this for the long haul.

00:11:08.400 Now, this aligns with the messaging we've heard from the federal government as well.

00:11:12.420 It was during the campaign just a few weeks ago that Justin Trudeau made the comment that

00:11:17.780 we could be using a temporary vaccine passport until the end of 2022 before a permanent one

00:11:25.720 comes into place.

00:11:26.680 This was that clip from one of his campaign press conferences.

00:11:29.740 But in the interim and as a first step, since a number of provinces have chosen to step forward

00:11:35.740 with the vaccine certification of their own, we have decided that the best way to do that

00:11:41.920 is to work with each of them so that they are reasonably standardized across the country

00:11:46.420 and so that there is a federal certification on that that will be accepted for international

00:11:52.060 travel.

00:11:52.920 It is an interim measure, perhaps will last a year or so before we bring in the formalized

00:11:59.560 passport version of it.

00:12:01.340 But right now, because most Canadians are not worried about whether or not they can go to

00:12:07.500 Paris or the Dominican Republic right now, they're worried about whether they can go to

00:12:11.640 their favorite diner down the street.

00:12:13.160 They're worried about when they can go back to the movies, where they're worried about

00:12:16.740 whether they're going to be able to be safe at the gym.

00:12:19.240 So Justin Trudeau's position on this is that the temporary stopgap vaccine passport needs

00:12:26.560 to last more than a year from now, and then we'll have something permanent.

00:12:31.120 Now, part of this, again, and I've said this time and time again, is that other countries

00:12:35.580 may put whatever barriers they want in place.

00:12:38.160 We do not, as Canadians, have a right to tell the people of Malta or Austria or Thailand

00:12:43.800 or Tanzania or whatever the case may be.

00:12:46.080 We don't have the right to tell them what entry requirements they should have.

00:12:51.040 So in that sense, yeah, if a country somewhere else in the world is going to have a vaccine

00:12:55.460 requirement in place, Canadians need to have an ability to prove their vaccination status.

00:13:00.380 So that's part of the international vaccine passport regime.

00:13:04.400 However, the rhetoric here is moving closer and closer to this becoming a permanent fixture

00:13:11.320 of Canadian society, a permanent fixture of governments.

00:13:15.720 And there's a story that I haven't told on the show that I think is worth sharing here.

00:13:20.980 I was out in Alberta a couple of weeks ago, and a few of us went out after a conference

00:13:26.580 that I was speaking at, the Canada Strong and Free Conference, and we went to a restaurant

00:13:30.060 and had a grand old time.

00:13:32.100 And what happened at that restaurant was that we went back the next day.

00:13:36.840 We had such a good time, we went back.

00:13:38.400 And in Alberta, you need to either have proof of vaccination or a negative test result.

00:13:43.280 And we were all dutifully lining up and getting out the paperwork.

00:13:46.280 And one of the guys in our party was turned down because the overzealous restaurant supervisor

00:13:53.400 or manager, whatever it was, didn't recognize his BC vaccine certificate.

00:13:58.600 It was missing one of the numbers that he wanted to see, so he wouldn't let us in.

00:14:02.340 So, I mean, I've never been turned away from a bar before by a bouncer for being underage

00:14:08.400 or for any other reason.

00:14:09.440 This was like more embarrassing than that, because now all of a sudden you've got some restaurant

00:14:13.020 guy that is just, you know, scrutinizing your vaccination paperwork and deciding that your

00:14:17.560 papers are not in order.

00:14:19.220 And everything's difficult now.

00:14:21.480 It's overcomplicated everything.

00:14:23.420 And if you think it's just as simple as, well, just get the shot and move on, you're sorely

00:14:27.120 mistaken.

00:14:27.620 Because we know that there's the threat of changing the goalposts yet again, of moving

00:14:32.040 them yet again, and starting to require booster shots, among other things.

00:14:36.760 And another caveat here is that we're talking about a vaccination regime right now that is

00:14:42.140 very likely to expand to minors under the age of 12, kids as young as five.

00:14:48.180 We know in Toronto, for example, they're already raring to go, gearing up to start a mass vaccination

00:14:52.840 effort of kids 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11 years old who are not eligible right now.

00:14:59.060 And we know this is going to come at a certain point.

00:15:01.920 And a lot of parents, a lot of parents who were fine to get the vaccine themselves, maybe

00:15:06.720 they were eager, maybe they just did it because they had to for work or for some other

00:15:10.500 reason, are going to be a lot more reticent when it comes to getting their children vaccinated.

00:15:17.260 That's going to be a game changer for a lot of people.

00:15:19.480 And all of a sudden, the vaccination rate is going to go down because the denominator,

00:15:24.520 the number of eligible people, is going to increase significantly.

00:15:29.280 And the numerator may not catch up.

00:15:31.420 Well, I mean, it won't catch up with it as much as it is now.

00:15:34.040 I spoke earlier in the week about the idea of having a non-coercive vaccination campaign,

00:15:43.320 which is what they were doing in Leeds-Grenville in Eastern Ontario.

00:15:46.260 All that's done.

00:15:47.760 All governments are doing now is trying to find more ways to coercively impose vaccination

00:15:54.120 on those holdouts who, for whatever reason, don't want to get it.

00:15:58.940 And at a certain point, we have to reckon with that.

00:16:02.880 So to go back to Jason Kenney's comments, even if, I mean, I gave him an out in the question.

00:16:07.420 I said, is there a case rate, a hospitalization rate, or a vaccination rate that would trigger

00:16:13.700 the end of vaccine passports?

00:16:16.220 And the answer was no.

00:16:17.920 So what I infer from that is that even if 100% of Albertans, which isn't going to happen,

00:16:23.480 but if 100% of Albertans were to get vaccinated, the vaccine passport would still be there.

00:16:27.940 So every single person, and that would not be enough for this program to go away.

00:16:37.400 And that's very, very important to note.

00:16:41.720 Because the whole point of any of these measures that trample on rights, and make no mistake,

00:16:46.280 these measures do trample on rights, the rights violation has to be narrow, it has to be targeted,

00:16:52.560 and it has to be temporary in order for it to be justified.

00:16:56.300 Now, I'm certain that there are going to be many legal challenges.

00:17:00.540 I don't have a huge amount of optimism, given how the court's been ruling on a lot of these

00:17:04.720 things.

00:17:05.040 But nevertheless, that is the proper channel at this point that I know will be pursued.

00:17:09.820 And if a rights violation is justified by the government, a charter rights violation,

00:17:14.260 or by the court, by the judiciary, that's the rule.

00:17:16.940 It has to be very narrowly connected to the stated objective of the government, and it

00:17:23.560 has to be no more than would be necessary to achieve that objective.

00:17:28.940 So if Alberta has a 100% vaccination rate, or a very high vaccination rate, or a vaccination

00:17:34.580 rate that's as high as it can be, it's difficult to justify a vaccine passport system that remains

00:17:42.340 in place.

00:17:42.820 And what happens if we start using this to measure people getting the flu shot?

00:17:49.060 In BC, for example, a couple of weeks ago, doctors were warning of a twindemic because

00:17:53.760 they think the flu season this year is going to be bad.

00:17:56.580 So they're now touting flu shot.

00:17:58.040 So you've got to get your COVID shot, your flu shot, your second COVID shot, your booster

00:18:02.180 shot for the COVID shot.

00:18:03.440 Maybe you need to get a booster flu shot.

00:18:04.980 I don't know.

00:18:05.700 And while you're at it, make sure your measles, mumps, rubella shot is up to date.

00:18:09.880 Get the Gardasil vaccine.

00:18:11.320 Get them all.

00:18:11.800 Just get every vaccine out there.

00:18:13.460 Just get them all.

00:18:14.200 That's how you'll be maximally protected.

00:18:16.000 But what happens if your vaccine passport starts to incorporate the flu shot?

00:18:21.840 Again, people may say, well, what's the big deal?

00:18:23.800 Get the flu shot then.

00:18:24.620 The whole point is, all of a sudden, this thing that was just such an extreme measure

00:18:28.500 that was justified because desperate times call for desperate measures becomes a fixture

00:18:33.860 of the new normal.

00:18:35.900 And you can never allow normal to be changed for something that normal, freedom-loving people

00:18:44.920 should be rejecting.

00:18:47.900 Don't internalize this and think this is how a healthy society is supposed to function.

00:18:53.400 It simply isn't.

00:18:54.880 We'll be back in a moment.

00:18:55.860 Stay tuned.

00:18:56.280 You're tuned in to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:19:04.360 Welcome back to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:19:06.420 I speak a lot on this show about the importance of preserving and protecting free speech in

00:19:11.320 Canada, which means government not being able to or encouraged to prohibit what you can

00:19:17.080 say.

00:19:17.540 The only thing worse than government-imposed censorship is the corollary to it, which is

00:19:24.140 compelled speech.

00:19:25.400 Not government telling you what you can't say, but government telling you what you must

00:19:29.660 say.

00:19:30.020 Literally putting words in your mouth.

00:19:32.620 Now, this is about as Orwellian as it gets.

00:19:35.120 In fact, I think compelled speech actually goes a little bit beyond some of the themes we

00:19:39.140 see in Orwell.

00:19:39.940 But compelled speech is exactly what's been ordered by an Alberta justice this week against

00:19:45.620 Pastor Archer Pawlowski.

00:19:48.200 Now, Pastor Archer Pawlowski is the pastor in Calgary who first shot to fame when he was

00:19:52.540 chasing out Alberta Health Services inspectors from his church.

00:19:56.200 Then he was later arrested.

00:19:57.900 He's been fined numerous times.

00:19:59.840 And he was in court this week on yet another contempt charge after he was arrested on the

00:20:05.240 tarmac at Calgary Airport.

00:20:06.820 And the judge thought that he wanted to go to jail.

00:20:11.680 The judge in this case, Justice Germain, thought that Pawlowski wanted to be a martyr.

00:20:16.780 So the judge said, well, I'm not going to play this game.

00:20:19.280 I'm not going to send you to jail.

00:20:20.440 But what the judge did do is compel speech.

00:20:25.660 He has ordered that Pastor Archer Pawlowski must talk about what public health experts say

00:20:32.680 anytime he talks about his own position on COVID.

00:20:36.680 Now, I don't know how he intends to enforce this, but the judge says the COVID threat has

00:20:42.200 never been greater in Alberta.

00:20:44.300 The Pawlowskis have contributed to an ominous health situation by encouraging others to doubt 1.00

00:20:50.120 the legitimacy of the pandemic.

00:20:51.900 And he's issued this order that whenever he speaks about COVID, he must put the other side

00:21:00.800 on record.

00:21:02.140 This is what the judge said.

00:21:03.120 He suggested wording like Pawlowski saying, quote, I am aware that the views I am expressing

00:21:09.180 to you may not be held by medical experts or the majority of medical experts favor social

00:21:14.800 distancing or they favor vaccination, unquote.

00:21:18.220 This is literally the judge's order.

00:21:20.380 The judge is putting words in Pawlowski's mouth.

00:21:23.360 Saying that anytime Pawlowski speaks his own mind, he has to qualify his own opinion by talking

00:21:31.360 about what these mythical public health experts, hashtag, trademark, are all saying.

00:21:36.560 Now, first off, you can drive a Mack truck through it.

00:21:41.100 Norm MacDonald, a fantastic comedian who passed away recently, and that one actually hit me

00:21:45.360 hard.

00:21:45.580 He did in a Netflix special a couple of years ago, a fantastic bit that I love and my wife

00:21:50.260 and I love, in which he said that you should never lie, but you should tell the truth in

00:21:56.480 a really sarcastic voice if you want to get away with lying.

00:21:59.940 And he goes on, and I'm not going to, I can't do it justice, so you should look up the special.

00:22:03.840 But, you know, he says, for example, you know, if you were talking to your wife and you

00:22:07.320 say, oh, you know, I, yeah, I cheated on you.

00:22:10.440 Yeah.

00:22:10.560 Like something like that.

00:22:11.840 And I feel like Pawlowski could do the same thing here saying, oh, but we know social distancing

00:22:16.800 is the way to go.

00:22:18.140 Oh, we know masks work. 0.88

00:22:19.980 Oh, we know you have to be vaccinated.

00:22:21.920 Like he could make a mockery of this entire thing.

00:22:24.880 So is he going to be back in court because he has to defend his tone?

00:22:28.960 Is he going to be back in court because the judge has to decide, I don't think you meant

00:22:33.380 it.

00:22:33.600 Say it like you mean it.

00:22:34.960 And all of a sudden the judiciary is this childhood paternalism that you all got

00:22:40.480 from your parents of like, you know, smacking you to say, say, thank you.

00:22:43.800 No, say it like you mean it.

00:22:45.780 Apologize to your brother.

00:22:47.640 And this sort of nonsense.

00:22:50.020 So this, this is compelled speech.

00:22:51.860 And again, you may agree with the speech.

00:22:53.720 It doesn't matter.

00:22:55.160 It doesn't matter whether you agree with the speech that's being compelled.

00:22:57.920 The fact that it's being compelled makes it tremendously disagreeable.

00:23:03.560 And that is so dangerous.

00:23:07.780 If we're talking about a free society, this is worse than being censored.

00:23:11.600 This is being forced to say something that you do not believe, that you do not mean,

00:23:15.600 which means you're being denied the right to have your own opinion.

00:23:18.060 You can't express your own opinion without expressing the party line.

00:23:21.640 And this is literally the definition of the state line.

00:23:25.320 You have to become a mouthpiece for the state's narrative, whatever it is.

00:23:29.260 And again, I mean, it doesn't even matter.

00:23:32.820 It doesn't even matter what they're making you say.

00:23:35.620 It matters that they are making you say it.

00:23:39.260 Now, I'm sure this is going to be appealed.

00:23:41.440 And I hope that a judge at a higher court looks at it and says,

00:23:44.080 in a free society, we do not support compelled speech.

00:23:46.740 But this is what things have come to right now.

00:23:49.860 We've got to take a break.

00:23:50.940 When we come back, more of The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:23:52.960 Stay tuned.

00:23:55.100 You're tuned in to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:23:59.860 Welcome back to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:24:02.100 We've talked a lot about what the new normal is going to look like.

00:24:05.240 Life after COVID.

00:24:06.480 How long it's going to be until we can get back.

00:24:08.480 All of those things that we had from the big things to the small things.

00:24:12.840 Like, you know, for example, knowing if you're allowed to shake someone's hand when you meet them.

00:24:16.740 But one thing that is going back to the old normal is government spending.

00:24:21.160 There has not been a reality check to government.

00:24:23.300 In fact, they may be more empowered to spend money after all the programs that a lot of Canadians,

00:24:28.220 I think in fairness, were in need of last year.

00:24:31.560 New report from the Fraser Institute finds that in 2021, we're still seeing monumental spending,

00:24:37.900 vastly outpacing even recession years, such as in 2008, 2009, and certainly beyond.

00:24:44.940 Jake Fuss is a senior economist with the Fraser Institute and joins me now.

00:24:49.160 Jake, good to have you back on the show.

00:24:50.620 Thanks for coming on.

00:24:51.780 Thanks very much for having me on, Andrew.

00:24:52.980 So this report here, I think it's interesting because when you look at this,

00:24:57.540 everyone knows last year was going to be a bit of a write-off if you wanted fiscal austerity,

00:25:02.440 governments around the world spending hundreds of billions, trillions of dollars.

00:25:06.640 A lot of those programs have carried into 2021, though, it looks like.

00:25:11.580 Yeah.

00:25:11.920 Well, while COVID has certainly created difficulties for government finances across Canada,

00:25:16.800 what we're kind of seeing now is the new normal level of federal spending is really at unprecedented levels in Canadian history.

00:25:23.920 So what we actually see in 2021, for instance, we're expecting per-person spending to be over $13,000.

00:25:30.540 This would be significantly above what we saw during the 2009 recession and during the peaks of World War II.

00:25:36.600 It's also significantly above the levels that we saw before COVID in 2019, which were already at record levels in Canadian history.

00:25:44.540 So it's certainly concerning to see that new normal is going to be actually above what we even had before COVID.

00:25:50.720 Is it fair to call 2021 normal or extrapolate normal from that, given that we are, as you know,

00:25:57.220 still in the midst of a lot of the hardship and heartache from the COVID era?

00:26:02.020 Yeah, it's a great question.

00:26:03.600 I mean, ultimately, you know, we still do have some COVID-related spending, some emergency spending that's going on in 2021.

00:26:10.080 But we actually do in our analysis, we also look at 2022, which is expected to be a little bit more normal than 2021.

00:26:17.400 And while per-person spending will actually decrease a little bit in 2022, it'll still be, again, significantly above what we saw before COVID.

00:26:24.940 So we're expecting per-person spending at the federal level to be about 12% to 18% above what we saw in 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.

00:26:34.180 And again, 2019 was already at record levels in Canadian history.

00:26:38.120 So if we even just look at 2022, I think that's probably a good barometer of where we're headed in the future as well.

00:26:44.940 Now, are we adjusting for inflation with these numbers?

00:26:48.100 Yeah, that's correct.

00:26:48.880 So all of our numbers are adjusted for inflation.

00:26:50.740 So $1 in the year 1870 is equivalent to $1 in the year 2021, for instance, to make it comparable.

00:26:58.800 So, I mean, with that being said, what's to account for such a significant jump, even from the 08-09 recession?

00:27:05.000 Because, again, in a recession, people would, I think, fairly expect government to be spending a lot of money and racking up deficits.

00:27:12.080 We can argue about whether that's the best fiscal policy, but I think that's politically where the narrative has gone.

00:27:17.220 And what's to account for, even in 2018, 2019, pre-pandemic, significantly more spending per person than in 08-09?

00:27:26.640 Yeah, it's a great question.

00:27:27.700 So really what we saw, you know, beginning in the 2009 recession was a big spike in per person spending across Canada.

00:27:34.060 And then there was a slight decline following that recession for about five or six years.

00:27:38.360 I mean, really, we saw the spending starting to ramp up again in about 2015, 2016, as the new government started to implement new programs, expand, you know, programs as well.

00:27:49.920 And really what we saw between about 2015 and 2018 or 2019 or so, we really saw per person spending increase by about $1,000.

00:27:58.620 So on an individual basis, you know, the federal government was spending more than $1,000 per person, in addition to what they had already spent before that.

00:28:06.300 So we saw that start to climb up above about $9,300 a person.

00:28:11.040 So, you know, obviously this had to do with new programs, but also expansions to old programs as well, like the Canada Child Benefit and a number of other programs.

00:28:18.180 And now what we're seeing, you know, after COVID, you know, talking about introducing new programs as well, like national child care, national pharma care, and a number of other programs as well that are only going to compound these costs as well for Canadians.

00:28:32.720 I know you look at the spending specifically in terms of the cost and not necessarily delving into the detail of the individual programs.

00:28:40.580 But as a taxpayer, I'd look at this number and say, am I getting, you know, 15, 16, 17% more from the government?

00:28:46.780 Am I getting that much more for being a Canadian taxpayer?

00:28:49.840 And I think for a lot of people, the answer would be no.

00:28:52.660 Well, it's certainly, you know, a question for all Canadians to kind of answer too, you know, looking at the tax rates that you pay relative to, you know, kind of the bang for the buck that you get for all these various services.

00:29:02.000 And also understanding the different cost implications.

00:29:04.840 If we have, you know, deficits that we're running because of all this spending,

00:29:08.040 really what we're doing is implementing higher tax rates in the future to pay for today's spending.

00:29:12.920 At the same time, we're going to face, you know, debt interest costs at the same time in the future, particularly when interest rates are rising.

00:29:19.300 So there are costs and trade-offs to every decision that they make in Ottawa.

00:29:22.900 So it's certainly something important for all Canadians to be informed of.

00:29:26.920 Now, I know you looked at election spending as well, or specifically election promises.

00:29:31.600 And that is going to, as I understand it, push this even higher.

00:29:35.960 Yeah, exactly.

00:29:36.580 So before the election, 2021 per person spending was going to be about $12,700.

00:29:43.140 But based on campaign promises by the Liberals, that would actually take you to over $13,000 per person.

00:29:50.120 And, you know, obviously they're in a minority government situation, so they're going to have to work with opposition parties in order to pass budget bills and survive as a government.

00:29:57.780 So we also looked at, you know, one of their likely partners in governing at the NDP's platform.

00:30:03.260 And that would, if they were to implement all of the promises in that platform, it would take you to almost $14,000 at about $13,700.

00:30:10.860 So it's certainly a significant increase in spending, and we're likely to see, you know, that per-person spending range somewhere between that $13,000 and $13,700 per person.

00:30:20.960 So that's certainly a significant increase, maybe about, you know, over 50% higher than what we saw during the 2009 recession.

00:30:28.520 And we also know, just from looking at other reports, including the Parliamentary Budget Office's assessments, that we could be on track to run up deficits.

00:30:37.880 I think the one scary statistic was until 2070.

00:30:40.880 And I know that a lot of this is all interconnected.

00:30:43.500 The more that's being spent to maintain and pay for debt, to service the debt, all of that, the more money that is coming from tax revenue to do that,

00:30:51.620 which means the less that is available for services, thus more taxes.

00:30:54.740 I mean, all of these things are very much interconnected when Canadians are, by and large, paying more.

00:31:00.020 Well, exactly.

00:31:00.600 You get into that vicious cycle of deficits and debt over time.

00:31:04.060 And at the same time, you know, not only do we have federal challenges, we also have provincial challenges as well.

00:31:09.740 We have an aging population in Canada, a rising health care costs.

00:31:13.460 So, you know, provinces are asking for more money from the federal government right now.

00:31:17.100 So significant challenges really all across governments in Canada.

00:31:20.980 You know, we're seeing spending really rise all across the country at, you know, the local, provincial and federal level.

00:31:27.260 So there's going to certainly be big challenges coming out of COVID for all governments.

00:31:32.300 What do you think it says that we're spending just monumentally more than even in the midst of the war,

00:31:37.540 which is often held up as, you know, the gold standard for when spending is just going to be so wildly out of check?

00:31:42.640 Yeah, well, that's something that we found was especially interesting in our analysis, too.

00:31:47.480 Even just looking at 2018 and 2019 before COVID, so really before any crisis period as well, you know,

00:31:54.600 we are spending far more than we were during the 2009 recession and before World War and what we were spending at the peak of World War II as well.

00:32:03.280 So really during the good times during 2018 and 2019, you know, we were spending higher than what we were during the crisis levels.

00:32:10.080 So this has kind of had a compounding effect if you're already spending more than you were during crisis periods,

00:32:15.160 during the good times, when bad times come around, then that only, you know, spiral out of control even more.

00:32:20.960 And then when you're setting that new normal in 2022 and beyond, what you're going to see is, you know,

00:32:25.960 spending again rising and rising and rising further beyond what we were, you know, during 2009 or during the Second World War.

00:32:33.460 So it's certainly concerning in that aspect for sure.

00:32:35.680 To look a bit more forward instead of backward here, I mean, is this a fiscal death sentence or is it possible to start pushing these figures in the right direction?

00:32:44.500 Because I know that we have seen, if you look at the chart and there's a good infographic that accompanied your report,

00:32:50.040 what we have seen decline notably in the 80s and 90s towards the 2000s, but we're also dealing with such higher numbers now.

00:32:57.560 So is it possible to start pushing back the other way?

00:33:00.100 Well, certainly, you know, I would reference the 1990s, for example.

00:33:03.700 I mean, we're not at the near fiscal crisis that we saw during the 90s.

00:33:07.580 But, you know, as things kind of get out of control, then you can get into a situation like the 1990s again.

00:33:13.840 But they made a lot of decisions during the 90s, you know, spending reviews.

00:33:17.980 You know, the Chrétien and Martin government, for example, cut per person spending really by about 17 percent over a three-year period.

00:33:25.220 So it was a significant change that they had to make, but obviously they had to make difficult decisions because they had high interest costs.

00:33:33.680 And debt interest costs essentially took up about one in every three dollars of revenue at that point.

00:33:38.940 Obviously, we're nowhere near that right now.

00:33:41.440 But certainly, you know, you can get to a point in the future where you have to make these difficult decisions.

00:33:46.460 So the longer you put off these decisions, you know, the harder and harder it gets to return to budget balance and to prudent finances.

00:33:53.780 Now, I have to say something just on a technical note here.

00:33:57.780 I know you've broken it down in chunks here by, you know, notable events, but also terms of government.

00:34:04.660 And I'm guessing that's very deliberate to look at it that way rather than just individual years.

00:34:09.820 Yeah, exactly.

00:34:10.440 We wanted to show, you know, we're kind of ranking prime ministers kind of on the amount of spending over their terms as well.

00:34:16.440 We obviously want to correct, you know, certain prime ministers had recessions while others didn't.

00:34:20.680 So we want to account for all those different factors.

00:34:22.860 You know, but what we really see, you know, in the ranking of prime ministers, for example, is that Justin Trudeau ranks the highest on the increase in per person spending since the Second World War at about 11.7 to 12.4 percent, depending on the figure in 2021.

00:34:40.520 So there's significant increases in per person spending.

00:34:43.880 And, you know, Trudeau also ranked fairly high even before COVID as well on that list.

00:34:48.180 Yeah, that's the thing as well.

00:34:51.480 I mean, lest anyone blame the pandemic, we were already at a record high in 2016 to 2020, outpacing the previous record of 2009, which was when the recession was.

00:35:00.820 So I wouldn't let anyone use that as a kind of an escape hatch for accountability on this.

00:35:05.380 Yeah, well, one of the interesting things that we found in our analysis is, you know, Justin Trudeau is actually on track to record the five highest years of spending in Canadian history based on 2018 to 2022.

00:35:18.400 So if the spending plans that they laid out in the election come to fruition, we'd actually see, you know, not only before the pandemic and after the pandemic, you know, we'd see those highest years in Canadian history for spending, which is certainly concerning there.

00:35:31.820 Well, that's one way to put yourself on top in the history books.

00:35:35.740 Jake Fuss, Senior Economist with the Fraser Institute, the report in question you can catch by looking at Prime Ministers and Government Spending, the updated 2021 edition, so brand new.

00:35:46.320 Jake, always a pleasure.

00:35:47.280 Thanks for coming on.

00:35:48.520 Thanks very much for having me on.

00:35:50.020 That was Jake Fuss from the Fraser Institute.

00:35:52.720 My thanks to him and my thanks to all of you for tuning in to today's edition of The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:35:57.900 We will be back tomorrow with a special doing a deep dive into Canada's relationship with Taiwan.

00:36:03.800 We've got a fantastic panel.

00:36:05.520 You won't want to miss that.

00:36:06.820 And then back with the regular edition of the program next Tuesday.

00:36:10.140 My thanks to you all.

00:36:10.920 We'll talk to you soon.

00:36:11.840 Thank you.

00:36:12.300 God bless.

00:36:12.820 And good day, Canada.

00:36:14.100 Thanks for listening to The Andrew Lawton Show.

00:36:16.060 Support the program by donating to True North at www.tnc.news.

Juno News - October 14, 2021

Vaccine passports were a conspiracy theory – now they’re the new normal

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