00:00:00.000I don't know if you guys have seen, but the Mark Carney gaffe where he said that he was helped advise Paul Martin to balance the budget back in the day.
00:00:11.280And people kind of caught him out on that. It's turned into an entire political meme extravaganza all over X.
00:00:19.760There's AI generated images of Mark Carney taking claim for massive historical events.
00:00:28.180Mark Carney invented the wheel. He discovered insulin. Mark Carney advised Winston Churchill in the Battle of Britain.
00:00:37.420It's pretty great. I don't know if you guys have seen it, but I would recommend people check it out because it's always wonderful when political serious matters kind of burst out into these creative arrays of memes and meme energy.
00:00:51.880Yeah, sometimes we take politics a little too seriously, but one of my favorites is Mark Carney was looking for Epstein Island in 1492, but discover North America.
00:01:04.960There's this funny one here I saw. In 2007, Mark Carney presented his new invention to the entire world, the iPhone, and he's dressed just like Steve Jobs.
00:01:13.380He's like presenting the iPhone. It's like, I mean, you could go through, you just type Mark Carney on X and there's probably thousands of these images and each one funnier than the last.
00:01:23.080I've been scrolling through them here just laughing because they are so funny.
00:01:27.640And it's such a good break to the, I guess, seriousness of this election.
00:01:32.620And it's always great to see this happen because on the one hand, they're so over the top, it's hard to get mad at them, right?
00:01:41.800If Mark Carney were to actually get mad and take this too seriously, it's like, well, clearly it's just so ridiculous and hilarious.
00:01:51.560But let's get right into it. We have a couple stories to talk about today.
00:01:56.720Okay, so right off the bat, we had the Ontario election last night, which saw Ontario Premier, the newly reelected Premier Doug Ford, win a third consecutive majority government in Ontario.
00:02:19.200Now, if I recall correctly, this is the first time that has happened in Ontario's political history, right, Noah?
00:02:27.160Yep. I have a poster on my wall of all the premiers in Ontario.
00:02:31.480And from about 1940 to 1980, Ontario was pretty much exclusively ran by the progressive Conservatives.
00:02:39.140But even in their heyday, they didn't have the political success of winning three majorities back to back and doing it in such convincing fashion in the way that Doug Ford has.
00:02:50.020So Doug Ford is definitely going to go down in the history books as one of the most politically successful politicians in Canada.
00:02:56.200So it's certainly one of the more politically successful Ontario Premiers.
00:03:00.580Whether you agree or not with his policies, he is quite successful.
00:03:05.120But going into the numbers is really interesting because in the last election, the Ontario PCs in a legislature of 124 seats won 83 seats, a pretty dominant performance.
00:03:15.560And Doug Ford called this election thinking he was going to gain more seats.
00:03:19.020He had the goal of winning all the seats in the legislature and being premier forever.
00:03:23.600Make that however you want to make that.
00:03:26.940But, you know, the PCs, they gain in vote share from about 40 percent to 43 percent.
00:03:32.220And their seat count actually went down from 83 to it's going to be about 80 or 81 after all the votes are completely tallied.
00:03:41.520The New Democrats, they lost about five to six percent.
00:03:45.760They reached an 18.6 percent margin and they won 27 seats, while the Liberals, they got to nearly 30 percent, 29.9 percent.
00:03:54.580And they only won 14 seats, about half of what the New Democrats won.
00:03:59.720So some pretty interesting political dynamics that are playing out in Toronto.
00:04:04.180One, that the NDP's vote share in the seats that they do win is becoming more concentrated.
00:04:09.620They're becoming more popular in the ridings that they do win and less popular in the ridings that they just don't win.
00:04:17.620And the Liberals, they have increased their popularity generally, but they've increased their popularity in ridings in which the PCs are already popular and are already the most popular party.
00:04:29.120So a lot of ridings are won by like 47 to 44 PC Liberal and the NDP get like five percent.
00:04:34.720So this might show that, you know, the PCs are going to have a convincing, you know, four years and in 2029, the opposition party is going to have a hard time winning.
00:04:46.420But this puts the Liberals in a position to where if the PCs decline in support and popularity and the Liberals increase in support of popularity,
00:04:55.500the Liberals are in a prime position to take a lot of the PCs seats and actually put themselves in position to leapfrog the NDP, who are only popular in certain pockets of Ontario.
00:06:47.960Yeah, well, we'll remember that Doug Ford said he wanted this election because he needed the mandate to deal with the Trump tariffs, essentially.
00:06:55.980And now we're seeing the threat of Trump tariffs change on a daily basis.
00:07:01.540So maybe Ford felt that it needed to be expedited in some fashion because, for all we know, the tariff threat could disappear tomorrow.
00:07:08.240But one thing we didn't mention, of course, was the Ontario Liberal Party leader, Bonnie Crombie, losing her seat,
00:07:13.840which reminds me sort of of the situation we've seen in Alberta over the last few months wherein NDP leader Nahid Nenshi kept smack-talking the government, essentially.
00:07:26.360And they were saying this was a different scenario because he didn't lose his seat.
00:07:29.540He was, of course, he just hadn't won a seat yet after he became party leader.
00:07:33.220But they were saying, so you're not in the parliament, Nenshi.
00:09:33.120She does try to claim some sort of victory, bringing the party back from unofficial status to slightly above the required number of seats to have official party status.
00:09:44.000And there seems to be a trend with provincial leaders kind of sticking it out after defeating or at least initially declaring.
00:09:53.160Back in your court, Isaac, if you recall, Rachel Notley wanted to stick around initially after her electoral defeat.
00:10:03.700Here in British Columbia, we saw this happened with the Green Party.
00:10:08.580The Sonia first to know the Greens leader.
00:10:11.400She lost her own seat in Victoria and stayed on as leader and remains leader to this day.
00:10:16.120So, what do we make of Bonnie Crombie's attempt here?
00:10:21.420Will she actually stick by her word to remain as party leader?
00:10:26.200Losing her own seat in Mississauga, a place where she used to be the mayor of that area.
00:10:34.120And it makes me wonder, right, like, how many alternatives do the Liberals really have?
00:10:39.940Yeah, I would say that it would be interesting to see because there's a few things playing for and against Crombie.
00:10:48.740For one, she increased the Liberals' popular vote share by 6%.
00:10:56.920And she can make the argument that, you know, she was put into a snap election just, you know, a year after she became leader.
00:11:04.140She didn't have enough time to introduce herself to the Ontario public.
00:11:08.380She brought the party from not having official party status to having official party status.
00:11:14.260And she could, you know, get one of the MPPs to resign and win a by-election.
00:11:21.140However, I would say that some of the 14 MPPs might be saying, hey, you know, I'm actually in the legislature.
00:11:27.540I might do a better job as the OLP leader than Bonnie Crombie.
00:11:32.440And for someone to not win their seat is definitely damaging, especially when they were the mayor of Mississauga and you can't win a seat in Mississauga.
00:11:40.700It looks like she ran in the wrong riding.
00:11:42.520She ran in Mississauga East Cooksville that the Liberals lost by 3.4%.
00:11:46.980And the Liberals lost Mississauga Erin Mills by 20 votes, which is 0.1%.
00:11:52.520So if she won, she ran in Erin Mills, she could have gotten a leader bump that many leaders see and won that riding.
00:12:02.600But I think that Crombie is going to have to fight to retain the leadership, but she definitely can.
00:12:09.080And you see that left-wing parties are a little bit more loyal to their leaders.
00:12:13.080You see this, especially with the NDP, where Jagmeet Singh and Rachel Notley get, you know, multiple kicks at the can to run, whereas, you know, conservative leaders, you could be the premier and get deposed.
00:12:24.600So it really will – it really remains to be seen what will happen with Crombie.
00:12:30.160But I expect her to have some success in maintaining her position as leader.
00:12:34.520Yeah, Crombie should have taken – sorry, I'll just say something quick, Cosmin.
00:12:38.900I think Crombie should have taken some advice or some – yeah, some advice from Nenshi because, obviously, he's the former Calgary mayor.
00:12:47.940And some would argue he's not very well-liked there, so he is not running in Calgary.
00:12:52.300He's instead running in Rachel Notley's former seat, an NDP stronghold in Edmonton, where it's almost a guarantee that he literally can't lose.
00:13:02.160So, I mean, Crombie could have done something similar because, as we mentioned, I mean, losing her riding.
00:13:08.240She's talking about – I just found her speech there ironic.
00:13:10.820She's talking about fighting for the party.
00:13:12.080It's like, you're not in the legislature.
00:13:13.640You literally can't do what you're saying.
00:13:16.800Now, just to bring this back to Doug Ford and his future as premier of Ontario,
00:13:23.320obviously, the big issue on the table is the incoming tariffs, which are scheduled to happen next week,
00:13:33.040if we are to take what Trump is currently saying to heart.
00:13:36.920And Doug Ford, there's been talk about him potentially being unleashed, in a sense, in this third consecutive majority government.
00:13:48.220Will Doug Ford shy away from some of his reluctance to address things like some of the culture war stuff,
00:20:58.200But one is still in the hospital being treated for their wounds.
00:21:02.040They are expected to make it out okay.
00:21:04.780But after this happened, this individual was released from custody, allowed to go back home by the RCMP, and charges were only pressed later this week.
00:21:17.680How could this happen when we have somebody committing crimes against children, potentially endangering the lives of children, and they're only pressing aggravated assault charges several days later when the evidence is so clear that there was wrongdoing involved?
00:21:36.960Yeah, this really just comes down to the catch-and-release bail policy.
00:21:43.520We've covered so, so much at True North Cosmin.
00:21:45.940I mean, there's literally countless organizations, police organizations, unions, governments, saying there is nothing we can do.
00:21:54.080These people just get released on bail the same day they commit the crime.
00:21:59.000And we've seen Paul Yefra talk about it.
00:22:01.120He's saying, I don't have the data, but it's like such a small percentage of individuals are committing the vast majority of the crimes because they're committing crimes over and over and over and over again.
00:22:13.760Like, we covered that one Hungarian man at True North.
00:22:19.500I mean, these people, you're just committing crimes on an almost daily basis, which sounds ridiculous, but literally, you commit the crime, you get locked up, I guess, for a day, and then you're released on the very next day, and you're going to go commit more crimes, which obviously isn't good for the safety of Canadian citizens.
00:22:36.960But nor is it good for the offenders, because we know that going to jail, you have a chance to rehabilitate your life, to become someone, and maybe not be a criminal in the future.