Juno News - What Quebec’s separatist victory means for Alberta independence

00:00:00.000 Our guest today is David Knight-Legg, advisor to governments and companies in the energy,

00:00:09.760 tech and finance space, coming to us from London, UK. Welcome, David.

00:00:14.440 It's great to be here with you, Mark.

00:00:16.400 Let's get your take on what just took place in Quebec, with the Conservatives having

00:00:23.360 an uncharacteristically strong showing, but a PQ win. How do you think that will resonate with,

00:00:30.080 say, independence-minded Albertans? How will they see that heading into the referendum vote?

00:00:37.200 You know, it's hard to take apart aggregated votes and then come up with a specific motivation.

00:00:44.800 You know, there'll be different reasons why different people voted the way they did

00:00:49.360 in in every direction there but i think there's three things going on one is there's dissatisfaction

00:00:56.320 with affordability in general you know i think across a lot of different markets there's

00:01:02.160 dissatisfaction with the state canada's in and i think quebec is in a particularly tough place

00:01:07.520 with respect to trade and what's happening in the economy and there's a bit of a renaissance

00:01:12.000 happening with conservative politics vis-a-vis the current status quo on the liberal side and

00:01:17.680 And so I think when you put those things together and you have this concern that's being tapped into by separatist sentiment, or I like to call it independent sentiment, there's a sense that there's probably some things that Canada needs to change fast, I think, in order to address some of the issues that people have, many of which are not characterized easily as separatist or federalist.

00:01:40.340 are more just issues around the architecture of the country, its representation,

00:01:44.580 and the quality of life and the decline in that quality of life over the last 10 years.

00:01:49.380 Well, the posts that I've seen from people like Jeff Rath and others involved in the independence

00:01:54.020 movement in Alberta is that they now have an ally in Quebec once the PQ government is settled in.

00:02:01.780 They see that as a positive going into the referendum vote. Do you think it'll sway any

00:02:07.620 albertans into voting a certain way look i think if you look at the polling in alberta and it's

00:02:13.220 good to ground things in data to the extent that we can you you see effectively or the way that i

00:02:18.660 read the polls about a third of albertans are open to the idea of an independence discussion uh you

00:02:25.860 know the referendum is currently phrased as a referendum about having a referendum on independence

00:02:30.260 and you have a third that seem open to that you have a third that are absolutely closed to that

00:02:34.580 And then you have a third in the middle that I call skeptical federalists who are not satisfied

00:02:39.220 with the status quo of where Canada is at right now, but they also don't want to move Alberta

00:02:44.820 directly into the independence column, but they are not scared of having an open debate about

00:02:50.020 elements of that. And I think you'll see some of that reflected in the first nine questions

00:02:54.500 in the Alberta referendum. And actually, I think if you ask those first nine questions of every

00:02:59.300 canadian you would have some solid majorities on aspects of those questions dealing with

00:03:05.060 judiciary law enforcement immigration benefits what people know is open benefits fraud through

00:03:11.780 an immigration asylum policy that's completely out of control across the country and i think

00:03:17.380 some of what's being reflected in the independence movement is actually capturing a much broader

00:03:21.860 concern by people that would never characterize themselves as being for independence they're

00:03:26.180 very concerned over the total loss of control over the borders uh growing uh presence of of 0.98

00:03:33.780 openly islamist sentiment being expressed in all kinds of horrible ways and openly in cities that 0.94

00:03:40.420 used to be safe uh particularly for the jewish uh population that's it's long-standing canadian

00:03:46.420 population for the first time is actually dealing with shots being taken and and a bail system in a

00:03:51.860 judiciary that is completely out of touch you know somebody can shoot at an embassy and and be let out

00:03:57.060 on bail how's that possible like we you know you have you have every literally every week you see

00:04:04.260 a new horror show of a judge that's decided that someone that's perpetrated a horrific crime uh

00:04:10.340 needs to be treated with kid gloves at the same time that that victims and their families have

00:04:15.700 issues that go completely unaddressed by the system and that that is starting to show up in

00:04:21.380 in things like this where people just say i'm losing the sense that any common sense is going

00:04:26.340 to break through here until i shake this government to wake it um so i think there's i think there's a

00:04:31.460 lot of social issues that are pushing people in that direction i think you'll see those reflected

00:04:34.980 in the results of the first nine questions which people often forget to talk about but in my mind

00:04:39.620 are actually the most important parts of that referendum discussion and then in the the final

00:04:44.180 question about whether it gets taken to a referendum, I don't see data evidence that

00:04:48.440 it will reach the 50% point. But I do believe that you're going to see it in the 30s and maybe

00:04:54.720 higher, depending on what happens the next week, that could sort of motivate people to get out and

00:04:59.240 say, I want to treat this as a wake-up call for a government that's lost touch. And they appreciate

00:05:05.360 what the prime minister is trying to do to generate better economic outcomes by some new

00:05:10.780 common sense moves, but also they don't see the shift that needs to be seen in a lot of the

00:05:16.220 everyday things that are changing and have changed their experience of a country that

00:05:21.420 looks totally different than it did 10, 12 years ago. You posted this, Latin America equals

00:05:28.160 conservative renaissance. You're talking about the vote that just took place in Brazil, which is

00:05:32.940 still subject to a runoff. I think it's almost three weeks from now, like 19 days. You say in

00:05:39.880 In the past 18 months, seven nations have joined the political wave that started with

00:05:44.640 the cultural and economic renaissance in El Salvador under Bukele, and the economic miracle

00:05:50.240 in Argentina under Milay.

00:05:52.720 And now it's happening in Brazil, which is exciting.

00:05:56.220 Now a lot of people have likened it to what happened with the USAID, in which we're seeing

00:06:03.080 reports of hundreds of millions, even billions, being funneled to NGOs which used that money

00:06:09.480 in order to help leftist groups in those countries that used to be run by leftists.

00:06:15.800 And once that money was cut off by the Trump administration,

00:06:19.100 well, then the tide started to turn

00:06:21.920 because those lefties didn't have that money to work with.

00:06:25.660 And now comes word that the Carney liberal foreign minister,

00:06:30.240 Anita Anant, announced $125 million in foreign aid for Brazil.

00:06:34.540 And I can't help but wonder if some of that money

00:06:38.440 might be intended to do what USAID money used to do. In other words, to funnel money to these NGOs

00:06:44.440 in order to help the Marxist Lula ahead of the runoff. Is that possible, do you think?

00:06:51.300 Well, look, I think what we know, first of all, yes, of course it's possible. Secondly,

00:06:56.800 this liberal government has had a very poor track record of taking Canadian taxpayer dollars and

00:07:02.700 spending it on pet ideological projects. I mean, the worst case, of course, has been their green

00:07:09.000 alarmism and an obsession with allocating capital into ideas that are sort of superficially green 0.65

00:07:15.460 in their minds that have nothing to do with Canada's relative standing or anything for

00:07:20.360 the environment. You know, the 50 billion that's gone into failed EV battery experiments, you know,

00:07:26.320 basically putting government bureaucrats in a position where they're competing with Elon Musk

00:07:31.480 and the Chinese supply chains. It's absolutely outrageous mismanagement of federal dollars at a

00:07:36.920 scale that is unprecedented. But then in addition to that, you have this extraordinary misallocation

00:07:43.460 of capital into places like Palestine where Hamas steals it routinely, and we know that.

00:07:48.780 And yet they're talking about it being untethered as if that's some kind of feature rather than a

00:07:53.120 deep bug in the way that they think about these things. And so the sad thing, the tragic thing,

00:07:58.680 Mark, is that hard-earned Canadian taxpayer dollars can be misappropriated by some of the

00:08:03.860 worst people in the world to do things that are horrific and are the exact opposite of what people

00:08:08.640 are implying that that money would be spent on. So when people imply that Canadians were generous

00:08:13.980 by spirit, their government will look at places where there's horrible issues or events that need

00:08:19.280 to be dealt with, and they'll help secure some of that using Canadian tax dollars. I think most

00:08:23.160 Canadians say that's a fair use of their money. But if you have somebody that's an activist on

00:08:29.300 the left, looking at places in the planet where they can sustain their activist fellow travelers

00:08:35.340 in the Middle East, in Eastern Europe, or down in Latin America, it's disgusting. They did the

00:08:42.420 same thing when it came to Hungary. They've done it with activist groups. And this is part of that

00:08:47.480 Soros Open Society Network. And these are things that Christian Freeland and others are closely

00:08:53.080 connected with these are things where they take what should be canadian dollars and they spend it

00:08:57.480 on liberal left activist policies around the world using canadian taxpayer money and that's what makes

00:09:02.840 it wrong and you know that one of the worst victims of this has been a free press which

00:09:09.400 people like you were helping address by doing what you do and forcing these conversations into the

00:09:14.280 open like you do and that's essential because our press has also been given a lot of money and by

00:09:21.720 virtue of being given a lot of money, they self-censor. So where is the press story asking

00:09:26.300 a hard question about what $100 million being given to Gaza is actually going to? And how can

00:09:33.040 we be sure that Hamas won't steal it like they always have? Why are we the only ones that are 0.94

00:09:38.820 so naive that we trust UNRWA, which had dozens of open terrorists being paid? Because if you're an

00:09:45.340 UNRWA employee, what are you going to do? Tell Hamas gunmen they're not allowed to staff your

00:09:49.440 team like that that's not possible and so you know canada doesn't have to be naive but canada

00:09:55.680 also needs to be really crystal clear that if conservatives are in power we're not deploying

00:10:00.560 capital to give it to specific conservative activists around the world which defrauds the

00:10:05.520 canadians that wouldn't want their tax dollars spent on conservative activism likewise when the

00:10:10.320 liberals are in power the ndp are in power they can't be taking canadian tax dollars and deploying

00:10:15.200 it into liberal activist causes that otherwise should be relying on their own grassroots.

00:10:20.760 And I do see a problem with that. And I think you see this tendency, it can happen in any party,

00:10:26.580 but I think this party has been particularly bad at self-policing the way that tax dollars for all

00:10:32.680 Canadians should be spent. We don't have the money. They're the worst debt ever in the history

00:10:37.080 of the country. They've raised more debt than all other Canadian governments combined in history.

00:10:41.980 and they've got the worst deficits right now we've got a decline we've got the worst productivity

00:10:47.420 rate in the world in the advanced world in the ocd it's on a trend line that's worse than anybody

00:10:53.220 else and yet they're finding nine figures to give to another advanced economy at at a moment where

00:11:01.460 there's a massive election underway between people that they agree with ideologically and guys like

00:11:08.180 me agree with the Bolsonaro camp and the free market camp, which fortunately, it seems most 0.95

00:11:13.820 Latin Americans now agree with. And they're deploying my tax dollars to support their deep 0.98

00:11:19.240 ideological position. I don't like it for a second. And I don't like the fact that we don't have a

00:11:22.780 press that would hold Anita and add his feet to the fire on something like this and force her to

00:11:27.160 show us where this money's going because they have a terrible track record of letting it disappear.

00:11:31.820 Let's be real. Crime is up. Repeat offenders are released on bail. Police responses are slower

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00:12:41.240 Yeah, and that includes, I would suggest, the billions that we're sending to Ukraine. But this

00:12:45.300 125 million was actually announced in July, which is before the election. But nonetheless,

00:12:54.660 and I'm just going to read you part of this. That happened during a trip by Anita Anand to

00:13:00.240 Sao Paulo and the Canada-Brazil Strategic Partnership Dialogue, that's when this 125

00:13:08.000 million Canadian was announced in Findev Canada commitments for certain infrastructure projects.

00:13:16.800 But the question still remains, why are we sending money, Canadian dollars, that we don't have

00:13:22.800 ourselves, probably borrowed money, which is an emerging economy.

00:13:29.600 and strengthening by the day, I guess it's one of the BRICS nations. I mean, it doesn't make sense

00:13:35.800 unless you look at some of this foreign aid directed at countries which are either about

00:13:44.280 to go through some kind of election or struggling to get rid of right-wing governments. And I think

00:13:53.160 since the USAID money was cut off by the Trump administration, you've seen this wave of victories.

00:14:00.440 And I don't think that's a coincidence. Right across South America, you noted it during your

00:14:06.580 post. And that tells me that Canadians need to be doubly aware of where all of a sudden our

00:14:15.220 foreign aid is going and the timing of it and what it's going to be used for. I don't think

00:14:20.480 i'm out of line and suggesting that that be the case where are you on this one yeah look i think

00:14:26.460 across the board that the trickiest one is the dynamics in the middle east because you have

00:14:31.480 uh israel which is the only democracy in the middle east they're an ally of canada's they're

00:14:36.980 an ally of the united states out of the uk but you have center-left governments who have

00:14:41.600 somehow made a pact on the left with a very a deeply sort of anti-israel free palestine motif

00:14:49.420 they're out even elected officials calling what's happening Gaza genocide you know which is

00:14:55.340 extraordinary language to be using when they know how Hamas is structured and what they've been

00:15:00.260 doing and you've got a very strange sort of ideological tension within the left right now

00:15:05.840 and what you do and how you do it and I think Canada at the worst possible moment Prime Minister

00:15:10.540 Carney made a massive mistake coming out and arguing for a specific two-state solution other

00:15:16.060 things that were what Hamas was demanding in the middle of a hostage negotiation over

00:15:21.000 a year ago. It was extraordinarily bad timing. And I think that the problem for the Liberal

00:15:26.960 Party is that they need to be deeply circumspect about the things that look so much like they're

00:15:32.820 ideologically left positions rather than positions that really represent the best interests of

00:15:37.880 Canada in a particular place at a particular time. And that needs to be the case whether

00:15:42.180 you're conservative or liberal or NDP. You know, there needs to be a really clear sense that

00:15:46.960 Canada has a single unified strategic position on the way that we're going to operate in certain

00:15:52.600 places. I think it is ludicrous for us to have an open ticket for people from Palestine to come 1.00

00:16:00.360 into Canada unless they're deeply vetted, because we currently have a situation where the government

00:16:04.740 has admitted that it's lost control of the vetting process, the security vetting process

00:16:09.300 for asylum seekers. We now have over 300,000 people, and we used to have 16,000 in 2015,

00:16:15.520 over 300,000, and these people disappear. People get deportation orders, they ignore them,

00:16:20.740 and they escape, right? We have what Global News called over 800 IRGC agents in Canada right now

00:16:27.380 they can't find. We have Hamas agents in Canada. We had interventions the FBI led us on that helped

00:16:32.580 us arrest two ISIS individuals that were planning a mass attack. Canada is now the source of over 1.00

00:16:38.420 80% of all terror watchlist interdictions going into the United States over the northern border

00:16:43.940 in spite of the fact we're a fraction of the total people that land in the United States.

00:16:48.880 So we have a lot to fix before we start opening the doors to places that are notorious. Palestine

00:16:56.340 is so bad that Egypt will not permit anybody from Palestine to relocate or claim asylum in Egypt. 0.53

00:17:02.640 the regions that the moderate Muslim countries around Palestine refuse to allow Palestine to

00:17:08.880 immigrate without enormous security structures and vetting around it and yet Canada out of it

00:17:13.360 out of a desire to sort of be on the side of and I believe we want to be on the side of the angels 0.99

00:17:18.140 as a nation but the naivete and the complete loss of control and the incompetence around immigration

00:17:23.340 it's one of the things that's driving the sentiment in Quebec right now it's one of the

00:17:27.420 things that's driving the sentiment and I think you're going to see the the numbers in those first

00:17:31.400 nine questions in Alberta right now. But broadly, if you ask the first nine questions that Albertans

00:17:36.360 are lucky enough to have a direct democracy function to respond to and hold their government

00:17:41.640 to, if you ask those questions of all Canadians, I think the Liberal Party would be shocked

00:17:45.860 at the comeuppance they would be getting specifically on issues related to immigration,

00:17:51.200 foreign policy, open borders, lax judiciary, etc. And I think that's where a lot of Canadians

00:17:56.780 looking at this would say, I can think of a hundred better things to do with $150 million

00:18:01.260 dollars than give it to another OECD nation that can raise its own money and build its own

00:18:06.340 infrastructure. We have a lot of fundamental problems here and we're passing on the worst

00:18:10.760 intergenerational debt ever in the history of the country to our kids. We're going to make them pay

00:18:15.440 for all this money plus interest. And so if you turn to your kids and say, I'd love you to get

00:18:19.820 your degree here and stick around and build a business here and raise a family here. And they

00:18:22.920 say, I think I'm going to go to Florida where Mark is, right? And you say, why? And they say,

00:18:27.780 because because they don't send 150 million dollars to some they don't borrow 150 million

00:18:32.500 dollars pass me the bill plus interest and tell me it was in my own best interest because the

00:18:37.140 brazilians wanted to build a bridge right it's ludicrous for a country that is this poorly

00:18:42.820 fiscally managed and has this many problems in terms of its relevance in the world to be throwing

00:18:48.580 money around as if we've got it we don't have it it's it's fake and uh and and to your point what

00:18:54.900 makes it worse is when it's deeply ideologically suspect when it's money being given to another 0.88

00:19:00.580 fellow traveler i mean this this guy lula's bad news he's a socialist he's deeply corrupt

00:19:06.180 so i don't know if that bridge costs 15 million and the the other 135 is going into the pockets

00:19:12.100 of his friends but i'd love to know what anita and ann and her team are doing to keep track of

00:19:16.420 this money because it doesn't belong to her it doesn't belong to the liberal party it belongs

00:19:20.980 the canadians my guess is that they're doing very little on that front because they know where that

00:19:25.940 money is going to end up especially now that brazil is so desperate going into that runoff

00:19:31.220 to try and grease as many palms as possible in order to get that runoff to go their way

00:19:36.820 but i do have one more question for you before we let you go and it's on the trade front i know

00:19:41.940 that's an area of strength for you and we see now strengthening trade between the united states and

00:19:47.300 in Venezuela, which, as I understand it, is now shipping aluminum to the United States,

00:19:52.220 along with heavy crude. And so any thoughts that Canada had of trying to strong arm the

00:19:58.900 Americans with these dollar-for-dollar tariffs? It's looking more and more foolish by the day, 0.99

00:20:04.180 and it's beginning to look more and more like Venezuelan trade is going to start to supplant 0.86

00:20:09.020 Canadian trade because of Trump's mindset as far as Canada ripping off America all these years.

00:20:15.700 Where are you on that one?

00:20:17.300 Well, I don't think Canada's ripped off America. So I disagree with the president. The president won't care that I disagree with him. But I think I know a couple people. I was at the inauguration. I've got some good friends that are involved with the current administration. I don't think anybody in the administration thinks Canada's been ripping off America or that America's been ripping off Canada. I think that they know that we are going to try and protect industries that matter a lot to us. And we're the we're the smaller player on the field. But that means we have to be more tactical. And the surprise to them of the last year is how untactical we've been.

00:20:47.300 And I know people that are engaged on the trade front, and they're just wondering what our game is, what we're going to do next.

00:20:55.540 They're not waiting. They're going to keep doing what they're doing.

00:20:58.460 I think with Venezuela in particular, you know, Venezuela and Canada produce almost chemically identical forms of crude.

00:21:06.360 Theirs is called Mary Crude. Ours is obviously from the oil stands.

00:21:10.300 And the country that most needs the crude that they lost from the rendition of Maduro and the taking over of Venezuela's China, they did 550,000 barrels a day of merry crude, the heavy crude that can only be replaced by our crude.

00:21:24.560 And that is a pipeline for us, you know, that we should have immediately underway and supply China with the replacement of that crude.

00:21:33.660 I've talked with friends in the States.

00:21:35.220 And the interesting thing about the way the great powers are competing right now is the

00:21:40.240 Americans would fully support Canada building a supply of heavy crude directly to China

00:21:45.060 because they would love to see another country that is a mediating country like Canada have

00:21:50.520 the Chinese depend for part of their energy security on Canadians, which is allied to

00:21:55.040 them.

00:21:55.720 It's a great trade for us worth $15 billion a year. 0.98

00:21:58.820 It's a great trade for the Chinese, which need to replace Venezuelan crude they can't

00:22:02.520 get.

00:22:03.260 And the way the teapot refinery system is structured, you need that chemistry for it to

00:22:08.540 work. You don't want to take that refinery system down. So it's a perfect trade for the

00:22:14.660 Chinese. It's perfect for us. It's perfect for the Americans. It's great for the world. We make 1.00

00:22:18.160 a lot of money. The Chinese end up getting secure supply from a reliable country. And if the Chinese

00:22:24.220 misbehave in some way we don't like, we would have trade leverage and energy security leverage 0.77

00:22:28.440 with the Chinese in our negotiations. And the Americans don't mind that we do. And so I think

00:22:33.220 Some of the mistakes being made with the Canada-U.S. conversation right now are that we haven't been as overtly realist in the world we're now living in as a nation and describing what we want in clear ways and then deciding if it works or it doesn't work.

00:22:48.560 The biggest problem I had with us walking away from the table is no one knows what was on that table.

00:22:54.300 And so there's a question, and it's a similar question we were just talking about.

00:22:57.240 The question is, to what extent were some of the things on the table going to be changed for the purposes of satisfying domestic political interests for the Liberal Party or for Premier Ford versus good enough to get on with the deal and then wait for some of the other pieces on heavy trucks and other things for another round?

00:23:15.900 So there's real questions right now about why we can't have an open conversation as a country

00:23:20.980 and an open debate about what's good enough, because we haven't escaped. We're right back

00:23:27.520 to where we were the day before we walked away from the table, which is now what are they going

00:23:31.800 to put on the table? And here's the burning question. Have the Americans seen anything

00:23:35.880 that tells them that they need to put something different or better on the table? Did we bring

00:23:40.780 any new leverage since we walked away. And if we if we haven't, then we have a fundamental issue

00:23:46.640 that we have to address. And that's going to be, I think, the real sort of struggle for us as a

00:23:51.880 country is how do we come back to the table with something new and different and compelling that

00:23:57.060 says, here's how I believe we can create the largest free trade zone in the world between

00:24:01.960 Canada and the United States, drop these tariffs across the board and start to create what will

00:24:07.220 become the example to the world of the fullest, freest possible trade. Tie that also to a North

00:24:14.100 American fortress security structure where we integrate our armed forces, their armed forces,

00:24:19.280 as we have with NORAD anyway, but take that across the board. Join AUKUS for the submarine

00:24:24.100 warfare platform with the UK and Australia and the US for the North and just open this thing up

00:24:30.860 and quit pretending that, you know, Telesat's ever going to compete with SpaceX for satellite-based

00:24:36.780 security infrastructure. It's implausible. Those guys haven't done anything except additional

00:24:42.760 grants from a federal government. They've been given more money from the federal government of

00:24:47.140 Canada than their market capitalization. It's insane now, right? And they still haven't launched

00:24:51.480 a single LEO satellite. They're not even close to competing with SpaceX. SpaceX just released

00:24:57.620 more satellites on one trip than Telesat can release in its entire game plan by 2030. And

00:25:04.740 we're treating this like it's a national security issue. It just doesn't make any sense. It reminds

00:25:09.860 me of what we did with batteries. It's a waste of money. If it made any sense at all, the market

00:25:15.280 would come up with money and fund it. But we're at a place right now as a country where thankfully

00:25:19.580 we're moving things ahead. But the one thing we're still doing is pretending that the government

00:25:22.960 and taxpayers have to be on the hook for all of it instead of creating the conditions under which

00:25:28.100 private capital can come in and build these things, fund these things, create, innovate,

00:25:33.500 and let Canadians and the government and security be the beneficiary of that.

00:25:38.540 If you enjoyed the show and appreciate great independent journalism,

00:25:41.900 please consider becoming a premier member of Juno News

00:25:44.940 by going to junonews.com backslash straight up.

00:25:48.760 It helps us do what we do here.

00:25:50.360 Thank you so much for tuning in.

00:25:51.840 We'll see you next time.

Juno News - October 14, 2026

What Quebec’s separatist victory means for Alberta independence

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