Juno News - What's your prediction for the election？

00:00:00.000 hey everyone welcome back to the alberta roundup i'm your host rachel emanuel i hope that you guys

00:00:18.220 are having a great week so far thank you for joining me for the final episode of election

00:00:23.860 watch that's our special edition of the alberta roundup in which i am joined by three wonderful

00:00:29.240 panelists to break down the campaign events of the week we're going to head to them now i am once

00:00:34.220 again joined by evan menzies at crestview strategies erica baroudi's on the ucp campaign

00:00:40.320 and chris sims she's the alberta director of the canadian taxpayers federation we'll head to them

00:00:45.140 now hey everyone welcome back to the show and to the final edition of election watch it's certainly

00:00:50.160 been very fun having you all here with me one thing i wanted to start off if i felt like the last week

00:00:55.500 of the campaign has been a little bit quiet erica i know i've talked to some people on the ucp campaign

00:01:00.580 who said it was intentional that they tried not to over announce not to over promise during the

00:01:06.020 election campaign do you think this perhaps quiet week has been a symptom of that absolutely you know

00:01:12.520 we're looking at a lot of people paid attention to the debate a lot of stuff early on that showcases you

00:01:18.380 know the things that you've heard from the ucp the entire time economy affordability public safety and

00:01:24.980 so you know we've also seen the the turning of tides i guess or as i like to call the tsn turning

00:01:31.220 point which is when the um ndp brought in their you know business tax and we really saw people getting

00:01:38.820 angry um really mad and pushing back so we kind of just let it let that happen and focused on again

00:01:44.960 being positive for the remainder of of the campaign i mean i wouldn't say quiet was yesterday's rally but

00:01:50.800 i think we'll be talking about that too when we talk about a turning point in the campaign i know

00:01:56.320 last week we talked about how danielle smith had a very strong debate performance there was a huge

00:02:01.760 ucp rally in calgary yesterday we'll get to that a little bit later on but some of the people i've

00:02:07.120 talked to have said they really felt like that debate performance was a turning point for the party

00:02:12.000 at that point the mood really changed at the doors and just among people who are working on the

00:02:16.140 campaign evan do you think that is really a response to the fact that danielle smith did have

00:02:20.180 a strong performance and did kind of exactly what she needed to do by staying positive and delivering

00:02:24.560 her message during last week's debate yeah listen she she crushed it she did exactly what she needed

00:02:30.480 to do uh i think it's worth taking just a minute here to sort of reflect about where the ucp has been

00:02:36.520 over the last few years the party's been fractured there's been a lot of contentious debates

00:02:40.940 uh premier danielle smith has only been premier for seven months uh there's been a need to sort

00:02:46.540 of consolidate uh the conservative vote in the province uh i'm i'm i'm definitely hopeful and

00:02:52.780 thinking that that is occurring and with the performance uh danielle had at the debate last

00:02:58.380 week it sent the signal that uh conservatives let's get this done uh let's all come home together

00:03:03.580 and we've seen that this week as well we saw some endorsements of course from uh federal leader

00:03:09.020 pierre polyev steven harper's been on the campaign trail as well and i think this is sending the

00:03:14.300 signal conservatives let's come together let's uh repair any of the wounds from the battles from the

00:03:19.260 last couple years and let's get this done uh on election day on monday monday sure and when we

00:03:24.780 talk about that endorsement from pierre polyev as you mentioned we did also have one from steven harper

00:03:29.740 i felt that polyev was a little bit stronger he did mention daniel smith by name his was a little bit

00:03:34.540 longer more specific as to what a ucp government would mean for canada and for the province and a

00:03:40.380 lot of people say oh well you know of course a conservative is going to endorse another

00:03:43.660 conservative well not always conservatives across canada have often not been united it's actually a

00:03:49.180 really rare sign to see them unite in this way because there's so many fractures within the party and

00:03:53.900 within the movement at times one of the other things that i would say is that i don't think polyev

00:03:59.740 would have given this endorsement if he wasn't pretty sure that daniel smith is going to form

00:04:04.780 government on monday erica what's your take well i definitely love to see you know former leader um

00:04:12.140 ronna ambrose stephen harper pierre polyev come out supporting us um i don't know if it's out yet but

00:04:18.300 there might be another one coming from stephen harper that gives a little bit more uh clarification

00:04:22.620 on exactly what that means both for canada and um alberta um you know everyone's kind of talking

00:04:29.740 about how we've seen this shift you know we still work hard act like you're four votes behind but um

00:04:35.660 having an endorsement from pierre you're right i think a lot of us live through pc and wild rose days

00:04:40.540 where um we we were fractured within our federal uh family and i think that it is impactful to have

00:04:47.900 pierre come out i think it's definitely a sign that you know we are performing and the momentum

00:04:53.420 is there we just have to get this across the finish line and and be a re-elected government

00:04:58.860 so i quickly wanted to move to one of the announcements the ucp did make this week daniel

00:05:02.860 smith made this announcement on wednesday in calgary she said that a re-elected united conservative

00:05:07.980 party government would force a referendum on a future government that try to increase personal

00:05:12.940 taxes or taxes on job creators i did try to get her to commit to adding the carbon tax to this

00:05:19.820 referendum she didn't commit to that seems like it could have been an easy win chris what's your take

00:05:25.500 yeah that's our take exactly so just to back up for people who don't know what this is the taxpayer

00:05:30.220 protection act has been in place now here in alberta for years it's one of the strongest laws

00:05:35.180 protecting taxpayers in all of north america if you enjoy not paying a pst it's because of the taxpayer

00:05:41.340 protection act because any politician that wanted to put through a provincial sales tax

00:05:45.980 would have to win a referendum here first good luck with that and so what's really great about

00:05:51.500 this promise from the ucp is that they're saying okay let's expand it so that any increase to personal

00:05:57.580 income taxes or increase to business taxes also has to win a referendum like that's a game changer for

00:06:03.900 taxpayers so we're super happy about that and what we're urging them to do is to say hey who knows what

00:06:09.660 the future is going to hold someday trudeau's carbon tax could be gone at the federal level

00:06:15.420 let's shield albertans in perpetuity from another provincial carbon tax let's just write that in

00:06:21.740 there because we know what's happened before rachel notley with her ndp government surprised albertans

00:06:26.700 with one in 2015 it cost people more than a billion dollars per year and she had never campaigned on

00:06:32.460 the thing so we think it's a really smart thing to put inside the taxpayer protection act

00:06:37.020 i do have to say that i wonder if one of the reasons they're not including this in bill one

00:06:42.540 the proposed bill one which would be their first piece of legislation if they are re-elected

00:06:46.220 is because they're planning another challenge to the carbon tax i guess we'll have to wait a little

00:06:50.860 bit longer to hear about that in future days if they are in fact re-elected on monday now i want

00:06:56.540 to move to the campaign rally i would say this was the biggest moment of the week this was on

00:07:00.540 thursday night so many people came out the crowd was about 1100 people from what i heard we're just

00:07:05.100 going to play our viewers a little video for our viewers who weren't able to make it just so you

00:07:08.860 could see a bit of the crowd size and the energy as well in the room

00:07:19.100 a ucp spokesperson also told me that they had planned to hold the event inside but too many

00:07:36.460 people showed up so they had to move it outside to that tent there you know these types of things

00:07:40.300 are always really funny because i attend these events i'm just trying to post some information

00:07:44.220 online to make people aware and you get of course the stupidest attacks people just get so angry

00:07:48.620 about stuff like this oh the crowd is really not that big oh the crowd so white oh they all look

00:07:53.740 so old it really is so silly and just unbelievably frustrating when you're just trying to do your job

00:07:58.940 but erica maybe you can speak to why this type of rally was important i know i talked to some

00:08:02.620 people who said oh i really feel like we should be out at the doors right now there was about 35 mlas

00:08:07.740 when they were first announced i think a couple came late and of course all the staffers were there

00:08:11.900 as well so they weren't doing a lot of active campaigning on the doors but i think sometimes

00:08:16.300 it can speak to just rallying the energy and getting people excited for monday's vote maybe

00:08:20.700 you can speak to that erica yeah so vitro and i had to stick back to do our broadcast so we we missed

00:08:26.540 going down and usually i'm the first person to say no rallies hit the doors to exactly what you're

00:08:31.660 talking about and i had fomo last night i i wish that i could have seen seen that crowd um it is coming

00:08:37.580 back to what we were talking about about momentum right this is danielle smith being able to speak to

00:08:43.260 our supporters show the volume of our supporters i mean the traffic was backed up down the highway it

00:08:49.820 started 30 40 minutes late uh because they wanted to make sure that everyone could get in um you know i

00:08:56.780 hate i hate social media and i hate how people tried to depict it it's i mean it just shows that it

00:09:01.900 worked it got people out it got people motivated and what the goal from the campaign is is that will

00:09:07.260 transition to people getting to advanced polls people being able to then volunteer on on e-day

00:09:12.380 so that we can really push this over over the edge so i usually am anti uh rally and i think

00:09:18.940 last night was a good tone to set for for internal morale but also to get some more resources on e-day

00:09:25.500 yeah absolutely evan i know that i saw you in the crowd what was your takeaway from the event personally

00:09:30.300 i felt like danielle smith's public speaking while already good has improved strongly during the

00:09:34.540 campaign it was a strong event again yesterday and i think she delivered a positive message for

00:09:39.180 for voters but what was your takeaway yeah no for uh definitely i i think one thing that's important

00:09:45.500 to remember too in the discussion about why why rally an event like this matters is the ndp and uh and

00:09:52.620 their their pundits on on the left they're really pushing hard trying to suppress turnout uh this week

00:09:58.060 trying to present this idea in this image that uh no no conservatives uh are coming in our direction

00:10:05.100 and i think this event showed quite clearly that there is a um definite energy for conservative

00:10:11.100 supporters in the city uh that yeah premier danielle smith has been on our a-game this entire election

00:10:17.020 uh whether it's been taking questions from the media meeting with uh volunteers uh campaign pit

00:10:23.580 stops of course we mentioned the debate already and i thought her message was pitch

00:10:27.980 perfect last night uh talking about notley's record in office albertans don't want to go back the

00:10:33.820 threat of the sing trudeau notley coalition uh it was uh yeah pitch perfect for the audience i think

00:10:40.380 everyone left that feeling good i i do think uh listen the ndp had a a rally in calgary acadia

00:10:47.580 in a room that had a capacity of 400 people they tried saying it was a thousand uh the ucp had their

00:10:54.780 rally and it was outside because they went over capacity inside uh i i you know they had there

00:11:01.820 was a giant lineup of cars outside folks who were feeling jazzed so i think it was an important event

00:11:07.420 and i think it will bear good fruits for the uh uh the last sort of couple days of advanced polls and

00:11:12.460 into election day sure so i guess if we're using the ndp standards to measure thursday night's crowd

00:11:18.620 size we would peg it at maybe like 100 000 people i think i have that correct um i know that we've

00:11:24.940 covered public safety a lot on this show for my viewers danielle smith did speak to that yesterday

00:11:29.340 she said we are running on public safety and talked about some of the rising criminal activity and how

00:11:33.740 that was unacceptable we're going to play a clip for for you guys right now on that public safety

00:11:38.620 because albertans need to feel safe in their homes and on transit and in their communities we know that

00:11:44.460 calgarians and edmontonians want to be able to enjoy a game or a meal or have their kids go

00:11:49.420 downtown without worrying that they're going to be randomly insulted or stabbed or have to walk past

00:11:55.180 an open doorway and be exposed to secondhand crystal meth smoke it's totally unacceptable

00:12:07.500 so just a small segment of her speech yesterday of course if you're interested in hearing more of it

00:12:11.580 you can definitely find that on my social media but now i want to move to the advanced polls that

00:12:16.620 began this week on tuesday and is running till saturday as of the time as filming we have about

00:12:21.580 470 000 votes cast in the advanced polls now in 2019 we saw just under 700 000 votes cast in the

00:12:30.460 advanced polls in total that was record-breaking numbers so i don't think we're seeing the same

00:12:35.180 turnout i think we can expect to see these numbers jump by maybe 100 150 000 before the advanced polls close

00:12:40.860 i'm sure a lot of people myself included wait till the absolutely last possible second

00:12:45.660 but evan what is your read on these votes does this mean that people aren't excited about a

00:12:49.740 daniel smith government does it mean that they're thinking the ucp will stay in government and aren't

00:12:53.420 feeling the need to turn out and vote another option is also that some people are really skeptical

00:12:58.220 of the tabulators being used the tabulators are being used to count the advanced polls so that

00:13:02.700 there's not a delay and people who are typically more conservative would be a little bit nervous

00:13:06.940 of that type of technology being used in an election they might wait to show up till election

00:13:11.020 day to vote when their ballots are going to be hand counted evan what's your take yeah first of all

00:13:16.620 i tell any conservatives worried about that not to worry uh their vote will be counted and they

00:13:21.180 should definitely show up in at advanced polls it's traditionally been an advantage for conservatives

00:13:26.060 in this province that we show up at advanced polls and i think we are showing up at advanced polls

00:13:29.980 this election um but you know as far as uh reading into um what does this all mean on turnout so far

00:13:37.740 i'd expect that the turnout might be a little larger than it was last election on the advanced

00:13:41.980 poll count but it's it's really hard to read on what it all means i think in the ontario recent ontario

00:13:47.100 election they had increased advanced voter turnout voters have just become more comfortable as this this

00:13:51.980 as being the format that they uh they use to uh show up with their ballot uh you know in advance of

00:13:58.460 election day so uh it's hard hard to say what exactly it all means uh other than at least for

00:14:04.940 me just that people are more comfortable with the format but yeah i i would definitely for eric you

00:14:09.820 could speak to this too but for campaigns every time a conservative voter gets their vote in before

00:14:15.020 election day that just means that they've got more resources to uh on election day to get those last

00:14:21.260 people out that they need to make sure that the victory happens so if you're still waiting to get

00:14:25.820 your vote out uh you know advanced votes uh polls close on saturday so definitely take advantage of

00:14:30.940 it if you can yeah that's an interesting perspective i actually hadn't considered that erica you're in

00:14:35.820 the war room what are you guys looking for when you're taking a look at these advanced polling numbers

00:14:40.940 yes i first want to come back to the tabulator real quick uh if i can because i think last week

00:14:45.500 during the show i was at a very robust demonstration of the tabulators and to evan's point um they you know

00:14:52.940 i completely have trust and confidence in their process so if that is what's holding you back um

00:14:58.140 take my word i guess uh and just realize that that there is quite a robust process um and that you

00:15:04.540 know everything we saw was smooth as can be so um but coming back to what we're seeing so from from

00:15:12.140 the inside look especially in our target ridings um in calgary in the donut we are seeing a large portion

00:15:19.580 of our when we're going doing gotv for advanced polls large portion people being like i already

00:15:24.140 voted i already voted which is such a great thing to hear because to evan's point it you know relieves

00:15:29.660 you from doing the large outreach on election day um and then you can really focus on on getting the

00:15:36.380 folks you need uh for those numbers to get to the door so we have seen a very positive uptake i do agree

00:15:41.180 that we'll probably be just slightly under where we were last time in advanced polls but if i can reach

00:15:46.460 voters in any way i would say vote as early and as soon as possible it does help us from a local

00:15:51.580 campaign perspective it also helps us kind of be able to put our resources where we need to on

00:15:56.620 election day yeah and thanks for that bit about the tabulators for my viewers who do remain concerned

00:16:01.900 about them i have covered it extensively you can certainly go back and find my work on that i know

00:16:06.380 that premier smith has said she feels comfortable with them because the paper ballots are going to be

00:16:11.100 retained in case a recount is necessary unlike what we've seen in some other elections where the ballots

00:16:15.740 are actually destroyed in a recount is not possible that will not be happening in this case now we've

00:16:21.420 talked about the advanced polls i want to move to the polling these numbers have been so crazy and so

00:16:26.220 all over the place i don't think anyone knows what's going to happen in the election except for

00:16:30.060 of course a main street research ceo keto maggie he is calling for an ndp government on monday he said

00:16:35.100 i believe on twitter that he would eat two hats if there's an ndp if there's a ucp government rather

00:16:39.980 on monday so he's feeling pretty confident in his numbers then we know that i think hq poll for calgary

00:16:45.180 came out showing that the ndp were six points ahead again that was just in calgary but then just

00:16:51.740 friday morning we got another poll from the janet brown pollster we've talked about on the show before

00:16:55.980 how she's very well respected in this province and she's showing a ucp government on monday with 52

00:17:01.580 points for the ucp and 44 for the ndp chris these numbers are so all over the place what's your take

00:17:09.740 uh polling is really difficult to trust because of course everybody is obsessed with watching them

00:17:15.260 because there's so much of their lives invested right no matter which party you're in uh you've

00:17:19.500 been eating and sleeping in that war room now for probably the last six weeks i know what that feels

00:17:24.620 like and so you're always looking for indicators what we would say from a taxpayer's perspective at

00:17:29.820 the ctf is we don't endorse a party what we do push for our policies and from our people there's

00:17:36.700 thousands of them in alberta we keep hearing about lower taxes no carbon tax balanced budgets taxpayer

00:17:43.740 protections so to everybody listening right now i would give the same advice that i always do to

00:17:48.620 our people at the ctf you already know what you want to do you're already informed tell 10 friends

00:17:56.380 tell 10 friends if you're already listening to this podcast you're engaged you're active you know what you

00:18:01.340 want out of this province they've got you so to speak tell 10 friends of what you think is important

00:18:07.820 if you're opposed to the carbon tax if you think balanced budgets are important if you think fiscal

00:18:12.300 restraint is important so that we actually have money to save for a rainy day to pay for things like

00:18:17.100 emergencies and schools and hospitals and all those things that people like and we don't want to see

00:18:21.580 massive debt piled up and we don't want to see credit downgrades tell 10 friends well i dare say that

00:18:28.620 was chris's final pitch for voters before they head to the polls this weekend and on monday evan maybe

00:18:34.300 you can give us your take on the polls are you reading a lot into them what's your take yeah i mean

00:18:39.900 i would tell conservative voters that uh you know keto's had a couple misses uh before measuring calgary

00:18:46.140 and alberta audiences so if you wanted to see want to see him uh eat two hats show up and vote uh go

00:18:52.780 help a campaign out uh they need all hands on deck here and uh i i wouldn't you know i was involved in

00:19:00.220 the 2012 wild rose election campaign and we had good polls right up until the day before and you can't

00:19:07.420 um you can't take anything for granted so i i would say that there's some good trend lines for the ucp i

00:19:13.020 would say both from a quantitative talking about these polls but also a qualitative perspective talking to

00:19:17.580 people at the doors that that there is a real sort of stern backbone to the conservative vote and i i

00:19:23.420 would expect strong turnout i would expect the conservative vote to outperform uh some of these

00:19:29.580 polls that we've been seeing but uh it's just absolutely crucial this weekend that you show up

00:19:34.380 and vote the alberta ndp and it's not talked about nearly often enough but they've effectively

00:19:38.620 consolidated and sucked in the entire left-wing vote in alberta alberta is um a conservative province

00:19:45.260 and how it thinks and and views issues and and uh obviously how it views its relationship with

00:19:49.900 ottawa but it's uh the left wings always had a 35 to 45 percent vote coalition in the province and

00:19:58.300 they're fully united so you can't take anything for granted you got to show up and vote you got to help

00:20:02.780 out wherever you can if you want to see a ucp government on monday okay guys before i let you

00:20:08.700 go everyone has to give their election prediction what do you think is going to happen on monday and what

00:20:13.660 do you think the seat count is going to be erica i'm going to go to you first you were going to do

00:20:17.020 that um no i well i'm feeling optimistic i think um both chris and evan spoke to it the doors are

00:20:23.420 getting warmer the doors are the undecideds are folding to to conservatives because of the record

00:20:28.780 versus disastrous record um so i'm obviously given a ucp win um i don't know if i can should say this i

00:20:37.820 think that i'm going to give a range because i'm going to cop out on this uh probably 48 to 52 seats

00:20:43.580 for the ucp well you're allowed to cop out because you're on the campaign but the rest of you aren't

00:20:48.220 going to be so lucky yeah yeah uh chris what's your prediction i'm pretty terrible at predictions

00:20:56.300 to be honest i think it's going to be a very late night and then it's going to be close but i think

00:21:01.820 ultimately i'll put it this way i think people vote uh based on their priorities and so far the

00:21:07.740 main priorities that i've heard from ctf people are balanced budgets low taxes and fighting the

00:21:12.140 carbon tax so i think it's going to tip that way chris you're a number more than i did yeah

00:21:19.820 i am a numbers expert but i'm bad at predicting so i don't want to go out on a limb or jinx anything so

00:21:24.540 we'll see i hope i'm wrong and it's way higher okay evan how about you yeah i i i'm pegging it at 50.

00:21:33.340 um they it could be less it could be more but i think 50 is a safe spot i you we mentioned janet

00:21:39.420 brown's pull earlier she pegged it at 51. uh i do take that uh that read with a high level of

00:21:46.300 credibility so yeah we'll wait and see i uh it uh elections come down to turnout and uh yeah if

00:21:53.500 conservatives show up uh they can expect a good night on election night and i think 50 is a

00:21:58.300 realistic number if folks show up and i know a lot of uh ucp candidates have been working hard on the

00:22:03.900 doors i know they've got a lot of their folks out to vote already so um yeah i think 50 is uh my magic

00:22:09.660 number great well i'm glad that i was able to get a straight answer to at least one of you so there you

00:22:14.460 guys have it evan menzies crestview strategies pegging it at 50. we will know on monday okay guys thank you

00:22:20.220 so much for tuning in today i know that my audience has really appreciated your insight over the last

00:22:24.460 four weeks i'm hoping that i will be able to catch some of you on monday night for a live hit for our

00:22:29.900 audience we are doing a live show down in calgary at the ucp campaign event so you'll definitely want

00:22:34.700 to tune into that you won't want to miss it to hear everyone's wonderful insight thank you so much

00:22:39.100 you guys have a great weekend okay guys and before i let you go i'm going to quickly do my weekly

00:22:43.740 comment roundup you guys know that i appreciate your comments so much and there were so many under last

00:22:48.300 week's episode so let's take a look at a few of those now brian sen said you guys rock the house

00:22:53.500 and thanks for giving us hope thank you brian i'm sure we all really appreciate that compliment user

00:22:59.420 glittle said the funniest and saddest thing i've seen in this election cycle is the fact that all ndp

00:23:04.380 channels i've been on has the comments turned off so strong and concrete in their position that they can't

00:23:09.820 take comments lmao it's sort of like how they won't take questions from reporters they don't like

00:23:15.340 there seems to be a theme here wild bill says rachel i don't think you know how much we albertans and

00:23:21.900 westerners appreciate your presence and sincerity with your move west don't worry you will fit right

00:23:27.500 in and albertans will always show you hospitality keep on keeping on thank you wild bill i've seen

00:23:33.100 a bunch of your comments under my show and i appreciate that you seem to be a weekly or at

00:23:37.580 least somewhat regular listener and people here in alberta certainly have been very friendly and

00:23:42.540 finally user beau ottenbrait i apologize if i butchered the pronunciation of your name said

00:23:47.340 this video was a stroke fest it's hard to pretend the ucp message is anything like it should be

00:23:52.780 sure there are way better than the ndp but there are easily versions of the smith-led ucp right now that

00:23:58.060 would be much much better when our number one issue should be securing rights and freedoms

00:24:02.300 a focus on mostly urban issue is really poor form when the number one push should be for economy and

00:24:07.820 quality of life the focus instead is on health care and education the playthings of the ndp both

00:24:13.420 horribly flawed systems i do have to say that i disagree the ucp has been focusing quite a bit on

00:24:19.180 jobs in the economy during the election i think they're hoping that that's going to be the ballot

00:24:23.580 box question i don't think that it is but most of their announcements have been about tax cuts for

00:24:28.380 the general population and about building a strong economy i do agree with you however that the focus has

00:24:33.900 mostly been urban issues i'm sure some of you in rural alberta are feeling a little bit left out

00:24:38.540 but i would say the ucp really needs to appeal to moderates in calgary to win this election and so i

00:24:43.580 think they're doing what they need to do to form government on monday whether you like that or not

00:24:49.740 you can have that opinion but i would say they are probably doing exactly what they need to do to

00:24:53.820 give them the best chance to win government okay guys that's all i have for you today a friendly

00:24:57.740 reminder as i mentioned on the panel you can watch our live show covering the election results

00:25:02.540 on monday night i will be joined by my colleagues andrew lawton and william mcbeth

00:25:07.980 so i'll see you guys on monday night enjoy the rest of your weekend and god bless

Juno News - May 27, 2023

What's your prediction for the election？

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