Juno News - November 04, 2025What to expect from Mark Carney’s budget
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Summary
It's a big week on Parliament Hill as the federal budget is finally here, and the pressure is on Prime Minister Mark Carney and Finance Minister Bill Morneau to deliver a balanced budget for the first time in 10 years. Is he up to the job?
Transcript
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Welcome to The Fighter with Chris Sims. I am Chris Sims. I'm the Alberta Director for the
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Canadian Taxpayers Federation. Thank you so much for watching the show. If you haven't done so yet,
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be sure to like this video, subscribe to the YouTube channel, and share it with your friends
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who need to know what is going on. Okay, we've got a big show for you today because it is a big
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week on Parliament Hill. The budget, finally. Yeah, you know that thing that's usually out in March?
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Well, it's coming out tomorrow in February. The federal budget is coming out, and this isn't
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just, you know, fiscal Christmas for, you know, nerds who like our pocket protectors and our
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spreadsheets present, okay? But it's really important for everyday working Canadians because this is
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basically the stress test for the government. This is where we get a look at the books and see
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where the government is spending your money. And the bottom line is this. The main number that matters
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in the budget tomorrow is how much is the carny government adding to the debt? It doesn't matter
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what label on the bucket of spending, what that says, okay? Doesn't matter if it's in the capital
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bucket or the operating bucket, okay? That cute little thing that they're trying to do with the
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budget to try to, you know, squint and look at it sideways and maybe decide that it's not looking so
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bad. That's all smoke and mirrors, okay? That is all a distraction, okay? What matters is how much
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money are they adding to the debt? Because right now, our debt is more than 1.2 trillion dollars.
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Former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was fiscally illiterate, okay, who never balanced the
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budget, not even one time, okay, he doubled the debt in 10 years. Trudeau doubled the debt in 10 years.
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So, now, all eyes are on the new guy, okay? Is the new boss going to be the same as the old boss,
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okay? Or will Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is no slouch when it comes to math, okay? The guy's got
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a PhD from Oxford in economics. He is the former head of the Bank of Canada, former head of the Bank of
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England. Is this guy going to do a better job with the budget than Trudeau? What he said earlier about
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this isn't super comforting. I think if you're listening to it with an ear of like a normal
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working person, we've got Prime Minister Mark Carney. Remember how I described that dude went to Oxford,
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okay? He hasn't been eating a lot of macaroni soup, okay, or shopping for used running shoes lately,
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to put this nicely. He hasn't been experiencing the same sort of financial difficulties the way a lot
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of working Canadians have been, okay? And he came out and said that Canadians have to be prepared to make
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We won't transform our economy easily or in a few months. It will take some sacrifices and it will
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take some time. Our government will work relentlessly to cut waste and drive efficiencies.
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And when we have to make difficult choices, we will be thoughtful, we'll be transparent,
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we'll be fair. Okay, so what do you think about that clip? Let me know in the comments because
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I don't feel great about him using the word transforming the economy. They don't need to
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transform the economy. They need to get out of the way of the economy, okay? Canada is blessed
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with a ton of natural resources and a lot of hardworking people. All government needs to do
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in this context is take the foot off of the neck of normal working people, especially in the resource
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sector. There's no magical transformation that we need to do to our economy. The problem is the
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federal government. The problem is what the Trudeau government did the last 10 years.
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But when he's talking about cutting waste and getting rid of inefficiencies, that's a good thing.
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So we're going to have to wait and see for tomorrow, I guess, to find out which Mark Carney
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is going to turn up for work. Now, again, what did he mean by sacrifices? I just wanted to remind
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people, okay, that we have got around 50% of Canadians, half of Canadians reporting that they're
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around $200 every month of not being able to make the minimum payments on their bills. We've got record
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numbers of working families needing to go to food banks. What that actually means, if you think
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about it, working families going to food banks, is that a parent who's holding down a job still counts
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on donated jars of charity peanut butter to feed their kid. That's what that means, okay?
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What does Pierre Polyev, the leader of the Conservative Party, the leader of the opposition,
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what are his thoughts on what's going to happen tomorrow at the budget? Let's listen.
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We want an affordable budget that will give Canadians affordable life before Christmas.
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That's my priority. We shouldn't be playing, Mark Carney shouldn't be playing games and trying
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to force an election. He should be sitting down with us. I'm willing to work all through the night,
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tonight and tomorrow, to come up with an affordable budget that will make an affordable life for
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Canadians. But we will not vote to raise grocery prices and increase housing costs, as the Liberals
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have done over the last decade. Canadians cannot afford any more Liberal sacrifices. So my message
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is one of let's bring in a budget that's affordable so that we can have hope, jobs and homes for all
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So you'll notice there how Polyev keyed in on the word sacrifices too. That was not a good thing for
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Carney to have said, especially where people are struggling already so much after 10 years of
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Trudeau. And he was just a fiscal dumpster fire. There's no way of sugarcoating it or putting it
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nicely. Just off the top there, the reason why that reporter asked Pierre Polyev, do you want an election
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before Christmas? Okay. I might be the minority view on this, and it might be because I'm out of the bubble
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in Parliament Hill, and I'm working here in Lethbridge. But the press gallery needs something
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to talk about for two weeks leading up to a budget. Okay. And I've seen this happen before. Okay. It's
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like, you know, throwing popcorn out to a crowd. Okay. It gets them talking and doing stuff.
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What has happened is there's this rumor going around Parliament Hill saying, oh, maybe the NDP is going to
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bring down the Carney government and force an election before Christmas. Now I might be wrong.
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And if I am wrong, I will buy Brian Lilly a banana split. Okay. But I don't think I'm wrong because
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look at the math. Look at how many seats the NDP has. Okay. The NDP, in my opinion, is not going to
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bring Carney down. Why? Well, for starters, they don't have a leader. They don't have a leader. So who's
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going to be on the debate stage for the leader's debate in this mythical election leading up to
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Christmas? The interim leader? What's he going to say? What he hopes the new leader is going to say?
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What? No. Second, the NDP doesn't have gas money to put into a minivan. Okay. It cannot afford an
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election. And election campaigns involves a lot of stuff. Okay. Traveling. Remember how Jagmeet Singh was
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on the bus? Okay. He wasn't even using a plane. Forget the bus. We're down to like a go-kart. No.
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So in my opinion, this is just kind of churn for the press gallery to talk about for, you know,
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two weeks to 10 days leading up to a budget. It's also a good way to kind of cow the NDP
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into coming on side even stronger. So in my opinion, the NDP is either going to vote with the government
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in favor of the budget, or they'll just abstain, which means the budget passes either way. Okay.
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More importantly, what does this budget mean for Canada's finances? What will the bottom line be?
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Will we be able to bring industry and investment back into Canada and start improving our economy so
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that people are going to have better jobs and ultimately be able to pay lower taxes? Let's find
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out. Joining me now is that smart fella, Michael Campbell. He is the host of Money Talks. Be sure
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if you are not yet a subscriber, be sure to subscribe to him online because that's where you get
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really insightful market analysis in a way that people like me can understand. And I sure as heck did
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not grow up on Wall Street. Michael Campbell, thank you so much once again for joining the show.
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My pleasure. Absolutely. Tons of stuff to talk about.
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Oh my goodness. Okay. So we were talking a little bit offline and I was speaking with my friend Franco
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over the weekend about this too. Can you please explain to our viewers, does it matter that Prime
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Minister Mark Carney is divvying up his budget into operating and capital when it comes to spending? At the
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end of the day, what does that mean? And does it matter? Does not matter to the credit markets. And we've got to
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remember that's who's financing. I mean, we need to borrow money. In fact, here's a number that'll blow you
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away. We need $623 billion estimated this year alone. Why? Because we don't pay off our maturing debt. So we've got
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about 76% of that as maturing debt. So we need someone to lend us that money again and about 24%. And it's an estimate
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because we haven't seen the budget and where they plan to spend their money. We've been announcement
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after announcement. You know, it's tough to accumulate them all, but the estimate is about
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24% of that will be new spending. And that's every year now, right through 2029, 30. So that's our
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biggest problem is who's going to lend us the money and at what rate they don't care what, how we
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categorize our spending. They don't care if it's, we borrowed 10 billion for potato chips or 10 billion for
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microcomputer chips. They don't care. So that's really the thing that it will obfuscate that.
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I mean, there's a lot of criticisms because, you know, the definition, I made the claim when
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Prime Minister Carney first said he was going to do this. I said, great, well, I can balance the budget
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maybe by tomorrow morning then, because you can, you know, the definitions of what qualifies
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specifically as an investment compared to what's operating is still very loose. And that's what the
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Parliamentary Budget Office says, the definitions. So for example, keep in mind, they called arrive
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Canada investment in like security. They call the CBC an investment in heritage and culture. They
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called Sustainable Technology Development Canada, you know, an investment in technology and all those
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things. And one more, because it's been on top of the news. They've been calling our EV manufacturing
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investments. Well, they've been darn poor investments to this point. But my point is, they're setting the
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definition. And I think that lends itself to, you know, let's see how strict they are in applying
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it because they're talking about tax credits, for example, as an investment. That's, that's not what
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I think traditionally is assumed to be that. So yeah, those things are all coming home to roost at
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this point. I don't think it makes any difference to the credit markets. What are, you know, the way
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we've categorized, just like right now, we do categorize what our health transfers are. We do categorize
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what, you know, highway expenditure is. They don't care. What's the total number? And are they going
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to get their money back when they lend it to us through the bond market when it matures? That's
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what they care about. Does Prime Minister Mark Carney understand that? I think I'm safe in saying that
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former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had no understanding of that. None, not even the faintest
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glimmer. But, you know, doesn't Carney understand that? I think he does. I assume he, of course, he
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has to actually. I mean, also, I never knew what Prime Minister Trudeau understood about any of the
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stuff he did. He didn't prioritize. I think it's very fair to say he never prioritized the economy
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or economic growth. He had other issues. Climate change, probably number one. Number two, LGBTQ, you
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know, reconciliation, all of those things. But they weren't about creating economic growth. And
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presto, look where we've landed. I mean, we have this declining productivity per capita,
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which economists will tell you, if you're only going to use one measure about our standard of
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living or, you know, success or failure, that's what they'd look at. So it's declining. Capital
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investment is declining. There are many, many pressing issues right now. And yeah, I'm sure Prime
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Minister Carney understands that. But he has a real challenge within his own caucus. You have people
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like Stephen Guibault. I mean, he is not in favor of economic growth at the expense of anything to do
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with climate change. You know, he's got many of the same cabinet ministers are in there that were in for
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the, you know, several years of the Trudeau government. So I think that might be a problem.
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I think he still has a climate agenda, which, of course, is a hot topic about whether the government
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supports, you know, for example, a pipeline to the West Coast, you know, for oil. So he's got all
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of those challenges within him. But I think he does understand it. And I summarized his speech,
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what was it about 10 days ago, we did the national speech, I summarized it, if you were going to make
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a bet on the private sector, or make a bet on government, further government intervention,
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he's chosen further government intervention. And what worries me about that is the track record is
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abysmal. I mean, really, I mean, I just looking at the numbers. So clearly, whatever's happened to
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this point, you know, hasn't worked. And secondly, those things like examples like Stellantis or
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North Fold, they give them the money for an EV battery, and it declares bankruptcy protection
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within 12 months, you know, the track record is not good when the government says I'm going to pick
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the winners. So when the lights come on, like when do those dashboard indicator warning lights
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actually show up for politicians, because I keep running into this where I had a lot of experience
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on the Hill back when Gretchen was Prime Minister, and Paul Martin was Finance Minister, and nobody's
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perfect, okay, they had lots of things that they did as a government that, you know, wouldn't have
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been good. However, they had some people who seemed to understand how the economy worked. You know,
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we were speaking with people like Dan McTague and John Manley, like these members of Parliament
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who seemed to understand the need for fiscal restraint and fiscal discipline, because the
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deficit, which is a which is a basically a yearly debt. So a deficit is like a miniature debt that
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is added on to the big debt every single year. They finally were taking that seriously, after
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years and years of budget overruns, because eventually, those creditors that you're talking
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about there, stop lending the money. In Saskatchewan, provincially, they ran into that, where
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back in the day in the in the 1990s, they ran into a situation where, yep, sorry, but no more money
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coming in for you. They wound up having to close like dozens and dozens of rural hospitals, like
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things got pretty rough there. So my question to you, Michael is, with this new Prime Minister, I'm
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hoping he has different advisors that he's brought in from like the real world, from the private business
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and industry world. When do those dashboard crash indicator lights pop up, pop up for this guy?
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Well, clearly, they didn't when the interim parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques was
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there and warning about this is unsustainable. He used language that he was criticized for in some
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quarters because it was but I'm thinking from his point of view, asking the same question, what is it
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going to take for you guys in Parliament to understand this is a serious situation? And I got
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to say something about Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien. This is not the same Liberal Party. You know,
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clearly, it's not the same Liberal Party. I mean, Paul Martin, you know, worked diligently to get
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finances under control and with the support of Prime Minister Chrétien. So I don't see any similarity
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whatsoever when it comes to public finances with the current government. And we'll see with Mark Carney,
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but so far, he hasn't given me any indication that is similar to Paul Martin. I think Mr. Carney's
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approach is going to be government intervention to grow the economy faster than, of course, our
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expenditures. And that's been a big problem under the last I looked like since 2020, for example,
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program spending is up 20 65%. The economy grew eight to 10%. Well, that's not a good formula. And I think
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he would understand that. But his it's more his belief that the government can be a major player
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in goosing that productivity and goosing, you know, economic growth, GDP growth. And what that remains
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to be seen, that's the big government model. I'm not betting on it personally, by the way, but that's
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the big government model. So he does acknowledge that he knows that's a problem. But it's what the
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solutions are going forward. And of course, sorry, I'm going on and on, but it's so problematic
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to not be taking advantage of our greatest resource. I mean, we're the only country doing
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that to this degree. And, you know, we remain, this will be the final blow, whether he's going to,
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whether it was, you know, in one time, he goes to Quebec, French language, and says he's not going
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to do pipelines against the First Nations or provincial objections. Another, you know, about three days
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before he said he would, it's a national priority. So we'll get a chance to really see that in black
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and white coming up. I'm not so sure our house gets back in order without taking full advantage
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of our most important and most productive resource. I wanted to zero in on that right now. We were
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speaking with Professor Ian Lee, very smart gentleman from Sprott School of Business there in Ottawa.
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And he basically said, hey, to your point, hello, like we're sitting on, you know, a treasury
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of oil and gas here. We have got a ton of natural resources. So we have got all of this stuff,
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even apart from oil and gas, all of our minerals and rare earth minerals and potash and like the
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stuff, okay, geographically under our feet, that the rest of the world wants to buy with money for us.
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Like, this should be pretty clear. Like, as a family, if you're worried about your finances,
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one of the first things you look at is, where's the money coming in from? Do I need to pick up a
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second job? Does someone else need to pick up a second job? Can we cut back on our spending? Like,
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this is not rocket science. And so this is where I think a lot of regular people are getting frustrated
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here, Mike, is that we've got access to all of this stuff that we can sell to other countries
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for profit in order to, to your point, goose that level of the budget, okay, the revenue side of the
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budget coming in, because it's not just royalties that come in, it's the income taxes that come in
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from the folks who are building those pipelines and working in those industries who have those big
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energy and resource jobs, because those are high paying jobs, and they're long term jobs,
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and they pay higher income taxes, which brings in more revenue for government. Okay, so I, the last
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little bit of hope I had was about a month or so ago, it feels like, is when they were talking about
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the Keystone Pipeline. Suddenly that word came back up, because last I checked, we had it built right
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to our border, and then Biden killed it. Biden's not in the White House anymore. There's a guy in there
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that kind of likes pipelines. So this is where I'm hoping that push comes to shove, and that Carney
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says, you know what, we need to take advantage of our natural resources. Couldn't he convince
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himself here, here, Michael, couldn't he convince himself that government is doing good by getting
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out of the way? Or do they need that credit so bad that they would rather go to the casino and gamble
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on corporate welfare projects? Well, I think with Keystone, it was a political ploy. It certainly doesn't
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address the things they were talking about in February and March, April, June, which is diversify
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our customer base. You know, that would be a US pipeline, you know, through the US consumer. It
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wouldn't, as opposed to Asia, which would do that diversification. We were talking so much about,
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by the way, we talked specifically the same words, same words in 2018, with Trump and the aluminum and
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steel tariffs. Then we didn't do anything about it. But so yes, that would certainly help because it's
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still more product going out, etc. Again, I think the challenge is that we've had a lot of mixed
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messages to this point. We've had them acknowledge, Tim Hodgson, who is the energy minister, acknowledge
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we've got a terrible regulatory process going on. That's the other challenge. Keep in mind,
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we have short term problems you alluded to earlier. You know, we have people who are having trouble
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making ends meet. And we don't need to chronicle, there's 1.5 million people without jobs, 2.2
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million used food banks in March, you know, that kind of thing. Well, these are long term projects,
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nothing in what we've been discussing, you know, broadly over the last couple of months has addressed
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the need for attracting capital investment. You know, because that's where you start. There's no
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economic growth. If I want to expand my restaurant, I need capital. You know, it doesn't matter. If I want
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to start a business, I need capital. Well, Canada has not been in a positive competitive position.
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And look at what across the border, they're lowering taxes, they're lowering the cost of
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regulation. That's our competition, immediate competition. So now we're reading about, you know,
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companies saying, I'm going to relocate to the States. And there seems to be a new one every couple
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of days there, we have to address that competitive aspect. So finally, I'll say that, you know, we've got
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short term problems and long term problems, the sort of five major capital investments we could
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talk about, but that's still a long term solution. Critical minerals is the new buzzword. I don't
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know, they couldn't discover it two years ago, but now they've got it in the dictionary, you're still
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looking at 10 to 15 years to go from discovery into production in that way. I mean, along the way,
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of course, you're building stuff. So there will be some income and there will be some jobs. But
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the point is, you know, we need some short term, midterm and long term. And I think that's very
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difficult to argue against. Again, that's why this budget's got so many people with eyes on it. Are
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they finally going to answer some questions they have not answered? The Prime Minister's not answered
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in six months. That's why I brought up Keystone, because it felt a little bit more shorter term, because
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last I was told, I actually had a friend's husband who was working on it when it got canned. Last I was
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told, it was built on the Canadian side, at least, up to the border. So it felt a little shorter term
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than, say, one out to the West Coast, which, by the way, we also need to get rid of the West Coast
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tanker ban, because it'd be all fine and good to have a pipeline out there. But if we can't fill
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ships with the stuff that we have coming out of the pipeline, then what exactly are we doing?
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Michael, before I let you go, so again, a layman here, but if Carney announced, okay, all that stuff
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that was bad, okay, Bill C-69, the no more pipelines, the West Coast tanker ban, any of
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the other regulatory strangling red tape, if he said that's gone today, gone, ordering council,
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I'm getting rid of all of it. I don't care how fast I need to move, it's happening right now.
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Poof. Is that short term? Like, is that more of like a green light dinner bell for capital
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investors? Do they hear things like that and say, hey, maybe I will put my money there now?
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Well, of course, that talks to regulation, that would be a good thing, reducing regulation,
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taxation, we have to be competitive with the states when it comes to taxation.
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Also, though, again, my first question, by the way, would have been, what took you so long?
00:24:22.180
If you're going to do this, why didn't you do it six months ago, for goodness sakes?
00:24:26.260
You know, there's a lot of, a lot of things we can talk about with that. We haven't taken our
00:24:31.900
economic growth seriously in a long time. And I'll give you an example. Weren't we supposed to have
00:24:36.000
no provincial trade barriers by July 1st? Well, we find out that's a lot easier to say than it is
00:24:43.060
to do because it's provinces and the federal government. I'm not doubting the federal government
00:24:47.440
would like to get rid of them. But, you know, clearly we have problems on the provincial level
00:24:51.060
there. But that's more than offsets anything with the Trump tariffs. You know, so there's the other
00:24:57.180
big thing that we're really discussing and a bigger issue is uncertainty. Nobody knows. That is not why
00:25:03.740
people make capital investments. You mentioned Keystone. Well, do we have any doubt that the
00:25:07.880
Trump administration would support it? You know, of course they would, you know, but that's an
00:25:12.500
example of one area of capital investment. But there's so many others. The level of uncertainty and
00:25:17.700
some of it is not caused by Canadians. It's the Trump tariff approach. But in my opinion, that should
00:25:23.340
have been clear years ago. I mean, Trump started to talk about tariff is my favorite word back in
00:25:28.580
November. We made no reaction to that whatsoever. And here we are running these Reagan-esque ads.
00:25:34.880
Where were you 12 months ago? I was, I said right away, tell Americans it's going to cost them more.
00:25:40.500
That's don't talk about Canada. Talk about it's going to cost you more. I still think that's
00:25:45.620
effective. They have been saying that and certain governors certainly have. But again, what are those
00:25:51.140
ads really accomplishing? It was 12 months late. And there's a lot of things like that, that create
00:25:55.880
this level of uncertainty and there's alternatives. And the U.S. is providing themselves for a lot of
00:26:00.860
reasons as a positive alternative for capital investment. So we've got our work cut out for
00:26:05.780
excuse me. And I think we've got 15 minutes to solve it. That's how pressing it is.
00:26:12.840
Reminds me, showing our generations here reminds me of that. How close are we to midnight?
00:26:18.720
Four minutes to midnight type thing. Yeah. Michael Campbell, I really appreciate your insight here.
00:26:24.480
I will check back with you after the budget. I'm still trying to be hopeful here that the smart
00:26:29.980
guy will win out and realize that we've got a huge bloated bureaucracy. We're wasting way too much
00:26:35.560
money. And we have got to get regular capital investment, smart guys and gals back in Canada,
00:26:42.140
spending their money on big projects. Any, any last words on the budget in your heart?
00:26:47.460
Just a reminder that the budget are forecast numbers. They are not held accountable for,
00:26:52.220
I'm not blaming them, but I mean, think of all the variables they're dealing with.
00:26:55.440
We shouldn't be talking about them as if they're certainty. Secondly, this has nothing to do with
00:27:00.880
the incredible reports that are coming out of our Auditor General for a number of years of how much of
00:27:05.420
our tax dollars are wasted. And I just don't want people to assume this is going to be effective
00:27:10.380
spending, no matter what it is, whether it's cut in half, it still doesn't mean that last half is
00:27:14.600
effective. Nobody is addressing that issue. We haven't heard a word from government,
00:27:18.640
government, not from the Liberal Party, not, you know, and they've been in power now 10 years.
00:27:23.020
But I don't think the Conservatives dare take that on, you know, because of the power of the
00:27:26.980
public sector unions. But we've got a problem that way. Michael Campbell, host of Money Talks. Be sure
00:27:32.900
to subscribe. Thank you so much, sir. My pleasure. Once again, that is Michael Campbell. He has his own
00:27:38.640
show called Money Talks. It's been on forever. And he explains stuff that way. You know, I'm not some
00:27:44.720
capital investor from other countries, but I still understand what he's talking about because Michael
00:27:49.860
is such a great communicator and he keeps his eye on the markets and what smart, intelligent, wealthy
00:27:57.240
people are doing with their money. And unfortunately, they're not parking it in Canada, which is what we
00:28:03.300
need them to do. What do you guys think? Leave a comment, please. Leave a note in the comments. What are
00:28:09.620
your hopes for the budget? Do you think that the economist Carney is going to win out? Or
00:28:16.020
do you think that the guy who used to work at the UN Carney is going to win out when it
00:28:21.800
comes to the budget? Folks, if you haven't done so yet, be sure to like this video, subscribe
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00:28:33.820
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