Juno News - January 08, 2023


Why there won’t be an election in 2023


Episode Stats


Length

2 minutes

Words per minute

223.3619

Word count

617

Sentence count

43


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

Will there be an election in Canada in the months ahead? Is Justin Trudeau going to run for re-election in the next election? Is there a chance that someone other than Justin Trudeau is going to become Prime Minister of Canada in 2020? In this episode, I talk about why I don't think there's going to be another election.

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
00:00:00.180 There's nothing the Ottawa bubble loves more than election speculation, and it looks like
00:00:04.300 we're in such a cycle again, as everyone's asking, will there, won't there be an election
00:00:08.500 in the months ahead in Canada?
00:00:10.460 And I think the answer is definitely no, for a few reasons.
00:00:14.180 For starters, Prime Minister Justin Cheneau has a good thing going on right now with this
00:00:18.040 supply and confidence agreement he has with the NDP.
00:00:21.720 This whole coalition, but just don't call it a coalition thing he has with Jagmeet Singh.
00:00:26.220 Now, Singh said that there would be checks and balances.
00:00:28.680 He would hold the Liberals to account.
00:00:30.560 But who are we kidding here?
00:00:31.820 He hasn't done that.
00:00:32.940 Jagmeet Singh is practically a non-entity in Canadian politics right now.
00:00:36.380 I mean, I haven't heard from him, seen from him in quite some time.
00:00:39.240 Does he even show up at the House of Commons anymore?
00:00:41.340 I don't know.
00:00:42.240 So Justin Cheneau basically has a majority.
00:00:44.920 So why shouldn't he run out the clock on that?
00:00:47.380 Now, one of the other big ones is the state of the economy right now.
00:00:50.360 Lots of negative stuff going on.
00:00:52.420 Numbers are not looking good.
00:00:53.920 Canadians who face very rising mortgage payments, they could unfortunately lose their homes.
00:00:58.680 That's just not a situation where you want to be running a campaign on or you're running
00:01:02.260 for re-election.
00:01:03.440 Incumbents often get punished in those scenarios.
00:01:06.020 Now, third, let's not pretend that the Liberals are not afraid of running up against Pierre
00:01:11.380 Polyev.
00:01:12.160 I think they're very nervous because Pierre Polyev wants to do things differently.
00:01:16.200 He's not going to be playing by the old rules, media communication strategies, and they're
00:01:20.500 very nervous about that.
00:01:21.560 And I think the big tell is that they keep saying, Pierre's actually the guy that the
00:01:25.680 Liberals really want to run against.
00:01:26.940 We want to run against this guy.
00:01:28.040 And you're like, yeah, right.
00:01:29.160 I think you're doing reverse psychology by saying that he is the person you want to run
00:01:33.800 against.
00:01:34.580 But lastly, I think one of the reasons that they don't want an election is because this
00:01:39.720 is the end for Justin Trudeau.
00:01:41.920 If only because he's been in office actually for a pretty long time now, 2015, 2023, it's
00:01:49.340 eight years.
00:01:50.400 You're kind of getting there to close to being a decade.
00:01:53.340 Eight years is the amount of time that an American president is allowed to serve in office
00:01:57.520 for.
00:01:57.820 And then, of course, you can't have a third term.
00:01:59.460 And it's a big chunk of time.
00:02:01.340 And I remember in 2015, a lot of people say, oh, Stephen Harper will win again.
00:02:05.140 I just kind of thought, well, I don't know if he'll win again, if only because he's just
00:02:07.900 been around for so long.
00:02:08.960 People get tired of seeing the same guy on their television screens or on the videos
00:02:13.640 on their phones, talking to them about their daily lives and just talking to them about
00:02:17.340 Canadian politics.
00:02:18.140 And they say, I want to change things up.
00:02:20.420 And I just think they're stale.
00:02:22.100 They've run their course.
00:02:23.080 And this is the time you've got.
00:02:24.360 It's a pretty good run.
00:02:25.940 And you can't be the new guy.
00:02:27.440 You can't be a change agent.
00:02:28.560 You can't put forward new ideas because then we say, well, why didn't you implement them
00:02:32.000 in the past eight years?
00:02:33.200 And that's what they're up against.
00:02:34.460 I don't think there's going to be another term for Justin Trudeau and the liberals for those
00:02:38.800 sort of basic fundamental reasons.
00:02:41.420 So they're going to want to run out the clock.
00:02:43.180 They're going to want to serve for as many months as they can.