Juno News - Will Canada survive the Trump tariffs？

00:00:00.000 How about this leadership election?

00:00:01.740 I mean, we've been seeing so many clips surface.

00:00:04.180 What do you guys think the biggest fails have been so far?

00:00:08.100 Well, number one, I would say former B.C. Premier Christy Clark.

00:00:12.860 She just fumbled right out of the gate and was tripped up by a CBC interview.

00:00:19.680 Nonetheless, you would think entering friendly territory, you'd be better equipped to handle a question.

00:00:26.320 But she straight up just misled people about her former CBC membership, denying it altogether.

00:00:34.200 And then she has to go on Twitter to essentially apologize, claiming she misspoke.

00:00:41.200 And then she doubled down. 0.53

00:00:42.560 And only, I think, a day later, she announces she won't be running for the liberal leadership.

00:00:47.560 So talk about a flop.

00:00:50.120 It's funny how as soon as you start running for the liberal party, you know, you just immediately start misleading the public.

00:00:56.320 And, you know, you just start, you know, trying to deceive and weasel yourself into power.

00:01:02.840 You know, it's pretty funny.

00:01:04.320 It's like, you know, I don't know if you guys watch basketball, but it's like the Boston Celtics hosting the Washington Wizards on their home court.

00:01:11.060 And they're losing or the Leafs losing to the Winnipeg Jets in the Scotiabank Arena.

00:01:16.400 I don't know if that's a good analogy, if the Jets are good or not.

00:01:18.920 But the Jets are really good.

00:01:19.960 Not good.

00:01:20.640 Oh, okay.

00:01:21.280 So that's not a good analogy.

00:01:22.640 Just think about, like, a bad hockey team beating a good hockey team on their home ice.

00:01:27.660 Yeah, exactly.

00:01:28.600 You know, not very good.

00:01:30.740 The Washington Wizards aren't a good basketball team is what you're telling us.

00:01:33.960 And the Celtics are good.

00:01:36.580 Yes, exactly.

00:01:37.360 That's exactly what I'm trying to articulate here.

00:01:39.600 But Claude Clark and Aria, you know, they can provide us with a lot of entertainment before, is it March 7th that they're picking the new leader?

00:01:49.120 It'll be fun to watch.

00:01:50.260 March 9th.

00:01:50.820 March 9th.

00:01:51.220 March 9th.

00:01:51.940 Yeah, no, politics are becoming a lot like sports these days in how entertaining they are.

00:01:59.040 But let's hop right into the show.

00:02:00.980 All right.

00:02:07.700 Hello, everyone.

00:02:08.360 My name's Isaac Lamoureux, and I'll be hosting Off the Record today.

00:02:11.420 I'm here with my colleagues, Cosmin Georgia and Noah Jarvis.

00:02:15.380 So, yeah, we're going to start off with, of course, the looming U.S. tariffs, which has been leading the news headlines over the past few weeks because it's an issue that still hasn't been dealt with.

00:02:26.260 That being President-elect Donald Trump's proposed 25% tariffs, which is set to take effect when he's sworn in or directly thereafter on January 20th, which is the day of his inauguration.

00:02:39.960 So we've seen lots of different responses from Canadian leaders, specifically recently from Poilievre, who proposed retaliatory tariffs.

00:02:49.560 And we've seen similar measures proposed by some premiers, like Doug Ford.

00:02:55.220 He wants to retaliate.

00:02:56.340 But other premiers have taken a different stance, like Alberta Premier Daniel Smith, who completely said, we don't want to retaliate with oil and gas.

00:03:04.460 We want to collaborate.

00:03:05.440 We want to find a way to work together with Trump and make this happen.

00:03:08.740 And we've seen a rift develop between Smith and Trudeau and even the other premiers now.

00:03:16.160 What do you guys think of the developments going on with these tariffs as we get closer and closer to the inevitable date of January 20th?

00:03:23.960 So it was in a recent interview that Pierre Polyev essentially said that if he's elected prime minister, he's willing to use retaliatory tariffs.

00:03:34.420 Now, it's not very clear what that would look like, but I spent a little bit of time digging up what are the major exports that the U.S. sends to Canada that could be a potential target for tariffs.

00:03:49.320 And a couple of things came up.

00:03:51.860 Machinery, mechanical equipment is a huge export from the U.S. to Canada.

00:03:56.620 Transportation equipment, I'm assuming, you know, trucks, 14 wheelers, etc.

00:04:01.680 And we also import a lot of metals, steel, iron.

00:04:07.740 So obviously, there is territory there.

00:04:11.980 Canada makes up over 20% of U.S. exports in some of these categories.

00:04:17.400 So it's quite significant.

00:04:19.780 And I think U.S. President Donald Trump assumes that the U.S. economy won't be impacted that much from any Canadian action.

00:04:30.000 But that's not the case.

00:04:31.600 We're such an intertwined allies and economies that when one side gets impacted, the other will.

00:04:40.820 You might look back at the 2008 financial crisis with Stephen Harper, right, where Canada was able to avoid much of that catastrophe that the U.S. faced.

00:04:50.160 And that's one instance where we were able to sort of decouple.

00:04:54.200 But I think at this point with our trade relationship, we are so intertwined that when Trump introduces these tariffs, he will be also facing pressure from some of these industries back home to sort of soften up and perhaps come to the negotiating table with a conciliatory approach.

00:05:11.460 Yeah, Trudeau and Canada's premiers also recently held a meeting, and we saw them come out with a joint statement, which only the government of Alberta opposed.

00:05:23.360 So that was pretty interesting.

00:05:24.420 But we've also seen some federal ministers, like, for example, Melanesia Lee, saying that, oh, we'll just threaten to cut off oil.

00:05:33.860 But we've seen Smith explain that it's not that simple because to cut off American oil from Alberta, you'd also have to cut off Ontario and Quebec.

00:05:43.920 So, yeah, Noah, did you see anything out of that premier's meeting that you found interesting?

00:05:49.980 Yeah, I thought it was very interesting that Daniel Smith came so aggressively against the joint statement that the premiers and the federal government had issued.

00:06:00.760 And it's really because, as you guys have mentioned, energy.

00:06:05.200 Alberta, they do not want to impose restrictions on their ability to export oil and natural gas to the United States.

00:06:13.100 Specifically, they don't want to shut down their oil pipelines.

00:06:16.820 And that makes a lot of sense, not only for the Albertan oil and gas sector.

00:06:21.880 I mean, if you are shutting down oil sales to the United States, that means that you're not really generating any revenue.

00:06:29.180 And your employees and your economy in general will suffer.

00:06:34.160 And not only that, but provinces like Ontario and Quebec, they rely on pipelines that go through the United States to supply and help to power those economies.

00:06:45.240 So the Ontario economy and the Quebec economy will definitely suffer, will definitely have to deal with either energy shortages or an increase in the price of energy because there is a lack of supply there.

00:06:56.980 So it's not in the interest of Canada to cut off these pipelines that go down to the United States, especially the ones that have to go to the United States to go back up to Canada.

00:07:08.200 And I think that Premier Smith has to advocate for her province's interests.

00:07:15.260 And it makes sense that at the Premier's meeting, she is doing so.

00:07:19.440 However, if Canada wants to take the approach of really going after American consumers,

00:07:26.260 then one of the things that Canada probably has to consider is an export tax on Canadian oil and natural gas.

00:07:35.120 However, this is something that Premier Smith has also came out against.

00:07:38.240 She put out a post on Twitter and basically it shows that the Aubertin government has no sort of plans to help the Trudeau government or any government in Ottawa in making oil and gas more expensive for American consumers.

00:07:57.680 Now, this is a challenge because Canada, a lot of our exports to the United States are in the energy sector, about 33%.

00:08:07.640 So this means that we'd have to place tariffs on things like automobile parts, cars.

00:08:15.100 You'd have to place them on chemical products, mineral exports.

00:08:19.300 You'd have to place them on, say, aluminum exports.

00:08:21.560 And these are all things that the United States definitely does require.

00:08:27.640 But there's also the question of elasticity, whether or not the United States has the ability to supplant Canadian exports with their own domestically produced products or from stuff that is imported from around the world.

00:08:42.980 So it's definitely something that the provinces and the federal government have to juggle.

00:08:47.620 And it doesn't look as if coming out of that premier's meeting that the premiers and the federal government are coordinated in their efforts.

00:08:55.300 Just if I could jump off that, who would the United States be getting oil from?

00:08:59.880 Well, they would be getting oil from Maduro's Venezuela and such.

00:09:04.040 So it's obviously quite sketchy and suspect, the sources of oil that they might be willing to transition to.

00:09:11.280 But I mentioned Stephen Harper earlier a little bit, and I wanted to bring him up again.

00:09:16.920 You know, I talked about his handling of the 2008 financial crisis.

00:09:20.480 But Stephen Harper actually chimed in on the current discussion.

00:09:25.260 You know, he's made his rare, you know, several-month foray into Canadian politics.

00:09:31.580 He seems to be sort of out of view most of these days.

00:09:35.180 But he does provide some input, and we have a clip of that.

00:09:39.860 And I think it's important because he also does bring up oil.

00:09:42.700 But he also has quite a lot of good things to say about the U.S.-Canada economic and trade relationship.

00:09:51.240 Incoming President Trump has focused a lot on Canada in the last several weeks, threatening tariffs of 25%, unless there's a curb of the flow of drugs and migrants.

00:10:00.600 He talked about spending, that the U.S. spends, according to President Trump, about $200 billion a year protecting Canada.

00:10:08.920 Went on saying he doesn't need, the U.S. doesn't need Canada's lumber, cars, or dairy, and maybe even Canada should be a 51st state.

00:10:15.760 A lot out there just in a couple weeks.

00:10:20.360 You know, what's your reaction to all of that?

00:10:21.900 Well, I must admit some degree of surprise.

00:10:28.520 You know, we've always, and I was, you know, ran a, in fact, our Conservative Party is a very, you know, pro-American, pro-Western party.

00:10:37.020 I was probably the most pro-American prime minister in the history of our country.

00:10:42.520 I view our relationship with the United States as one of Canada's great assets.

00:10:48.740 You are our closest neighbor, our vital security partner, and, you know, not just our friend and shared comrade in the propagation of the values of the free and democratic world everywhere.

00:11:04.700 And I've always viewed this as a tremendous partnership.

00:11:10.620 I understand that, you know, Donald Trump may want some changes in trade arrangements, but I must admit to being shocked by some of the things he said.

00:11:21.580 They're just not so.

00:11:24.660 You know, first of all, we don't actually sell dairy into the United States, or sell almost none.

00:11:30.060 So that's not true.

00:11:31.580 Canada, it is true that Canada presently has a modest trade surplus with the United States.

00:11:38.920 The reason, Gabe, we do is because you buy so much of our oil and gas.

00:11:44.060 So Harper sat down for a podcast-like interview with Gabe Groisman for about 30 minutes, and I watched the entire interview and wrote an article on it.

00:11:51.880 And throughout the majority of the interview, it was Harper going through all the recent statements made by Donald Trump and kind of whether he disagreed with him or agreed with him.

00:12:00.700 And while he disagreed with many or most of them even, he did, of course, find common ground with Trump on the border crisis, talking about the issues there and even criticizing President Joe Biden for how he's handled the border and what's led it to get to the point where it is with drugs, crime, migrants, illegal migrants, that is, overflowing through it.

00:12:24.160 But I'm curious, though, guys, to ask what you thought of Harper's position with Canada's relationship with the United States and maybe how that compares to how Trudeau or the Liberals have positioned Canada.

00:12:37.340 I mean, Harper's really spent a lot of time talking about how the importance, of course, of the Canada-US relationship and how we're allies, trading partners, et cetera.

00:12:45.760 Yeah, what did you guys take away from that?

00:12:49.120 I thought Harper's insights were, you know, very important.

00:12:53.260 And I think, you know, it really highlighted one of the main problems that the Trudeau government has delivered on the footsteps of Canadians over these past nine years.

00:13:02.340 And it's that they have positioned Canada in a unique position to where we are just unable to adequately respond to the threat that the tariffs from the United States pose on Canada and our economy.

00:13:17.200 The Harper government, they did a really good job in trying to expand trade relationships with other countries.

00:13:22.780 They signed dozens of free trade agreements with the countries around the world.

00:13:27.580 It doesn't mean, you know, we particularly do a lot of trade with, like, the Philippines or, like, you know, Congo or whatever.

00:13:33.540 But that does mean that we have the opportunity to trade with these countries.

00:13:38.780 But the Trudeau government, they did not really articulate much of an interest in, you know, developing these trade relationships.

00:13:44.680 Sure, they developed some trade relationships with the Asian countries, but they didn't really do a good job at expanding on the Harper legacy.

00:13:52.480 And they also hampered the oil and gas industry, as Harper mentioned.

00:13:56.500 And they had done everything in their power to basically regulate Canada's economy and tax Canada's economy into a position where we're just not growing.

00:14:08.620 So it makes it really hard for us to then respond to, you know, 25% tariffs from the United States.

00:14:16.080 And what Harper really emphasized is that, you know, these tariffs are not exactly a good idea for either country.

00:14:22.560 They're going to increase prices in the United States, and they're going to be very harmful for Canadian manufacturers and American manufacturers,

00:14:28.880 especially, say, in the automobile sector, where these economies are very integrated.

00:14:32.980 So we should really be seeking to deepen the economic partnership that we have with the United States, and that would be in the best interest of all of our citizens.

00:14:44.980 You know, deepening our trade or getting rid of trade barriers, deepening our labor mobility and the ability for Canada to bring in high end talent, not from, you know, countries that don't share a common culture with Canada,

00:15:00.820 but from the United States, which shares a pretty culture that's quite common in Canada.

00:15:06.740 So Harper's insights really show how Canada really did not put itself in a good position to deal with these tariffs in the past nine years,

00:15:15.320 and why, you know, these tariffs really are not in our interest.

00:15:18.960 And I think, you know, if that Harper economic sense were in the prime minister's office these past few years,

00:15:25.180 it would have made a big difference in responding and how we could respond to the tariff threats.

00:15:33.300 Cosman, did you want to add anything from the Harper interview?

00:15:36.380 Anything you took away that might be of interest?

00:15:38.260 Well, he did say he was the most pro-U.S. prime minister, and I do agree with that, probably in some good ways, some bad ways, some controversial ways.

00:15:49.960 You know, he continued Canada's presence in Afghanistan.

00:15:53.840 He also adopted some of the similar policies imposed in the U.S. with like the Patriot Act,

00:16:00.300 and he created, he emboldened and gave more powers to Canada's security establishment.

00:16:04.880 And some people view that as controversial.

00:16:08.500 You know, he's done good things.

00:16:09.920 Like I mentioned, the 2008 financial crisis, that's a remarkable feat,

00:16:14.640 because he was able to maintain Canada's economy, prevent a recession at a time when the U.S. was plunging.

00:16:24.040 It was a disaster, a total disaster.

00:16:26.900 And that's, we are neighbors to a superpower.

00:16:29.280 And when something like that happens to a superpower, it's almost like a black hole that sucks everybody else up into it.

00:16:38.140 And yet Canada somehow survived.

00:16:40.460 But look at us now, right?

00:16:42.140 We are likely going to enter a recession if these tariffs come through because of the hit to our GDP.

00:16:50.820 Economists are pretty much saying a recession is inevitable.

00:16:54.100 Now, whether that can be avoided and whether once, if and when those tariffs are removed,

00:17:01.680 there will be an economic rebound that takes us to a better place than we are now,

00:17:06.960 I think that would be the hope, is that the rebound is significant enough and productive enough

00:17:15.100 to bring Canada's economy from the stagnation, from the overspending,

00:17:21.480 the entrance into generational debt that we have from the nine years of this liberal government

00:17:30.020 into something more prosperous and more stable for Canadians.

00:17:35.980 Yeah, and let's remember that the U.S. tariffs are expected to come through an executive order

00:17:41.660 after President Donald Trump's inauguration on Monday.

00:17:45.520 Which, a few more interesting things to add.

00:17:48.660 Trudeau decided to have his last cabinet retreat in Quebec during the inauguration,

00:17:53.940 so it's still not entirely clear if he is going unlikely, unless he juts off from his retreat to quickly go.

00:18:01.080 And I don't know whether he was even invited.

00:18:03.420 I did, of course, ask the PMO, but I got no response.

00:18:06.740 We know as well Conservative leader Pierre Polyèvre is not attending,

00:18:09.860 but Danielle Smith will be attending the inauguration in person in Washington after she was personally invited.

00:18:17.240 So that's pretty interesting.

00:18:20.180 And sticking with the Alberta theme, we, of course, saw Mark Carney declare his leadership campaign

00:18:27.060 for the Liberal leadership race on Thursday.

00:18:30.460 And candidates are required to declare by January 23rd to run in the race,

00:18:36.740 which is likely expected to be generally between Carney and Freeland.

00:18:41.740 And the race will conclude on March 9th.

00:18:45.760 So that will be not only the new Liberal Party leader, but the new Prime Minister of Canada.

00:18:51.460 So this is definitely an interesting development that we're keeping up with.

00:18:57.180 And yeah, we've seen a lot of clips surface recently of Carney saying ridiculous things,

00:19:01.940 like calling himself an outsider, even though he's been a political insider for several years.

00:19:07.940 And then in another interview, we can even run the clip if we want to,

00:19:12.540 he referred to himself as a European.

00:19:14.280 This is someone who's presenting himself to be Canada's Prime Minister, remember?

00:19:17.840 Do we want to run that clip?

00:19:18.780 Mark, you looked like you were about to...

00:19:20.340 Yeah, I was a tell.

00:19:21.480 As a European, you know, as a...

00:19:23.480 As a European, I am a European, actually.

00:19:25.240 Oh, you are?

00:19:25.840 Yeah, yeah, I'm an Irish citizen.

00:19:27.300 So there you go.

00:19:27.960 You're welcome.

00:19:28.240 Well...

00:19:29.080 Speaking as a European, I like to say falling. 1.00

00:19:32.400 Yeah, so just getting into this leadership race, guys,

00:19:34.680 do you think that Carney is going to win,

00:19:37.840 or could someone else possibly take the throne?

00:19:42.460 Well, you know, as you said, it's really a race between Christopher Freeland and Mark Carney.

00:19:47.940 You know, we don't have, you know, liberal cabinet ministers like François-Philippe Champagne

00:19:52.260 and Dominic LeBlanc running, you know, to really add a sort of French flavor to the leadership race,

00:19:58.440 to the liberal leadership race, which might be a concern for them.

00:20:01.320 But beyond that, it'll definitely be a race between Freeland and Carney.

00:20:05.980 And what we should probably see is a battle between these two politicians

00:20:13.400 and how they can manage to distance themselves from the Trudeau legacy.

00:20:18.260 The prime ministership of Justin Trudeau is very traumatic for Canada and Canadians.

00:20:23.180 As you can see, public opinion numbers don't really show prime minister Justin Trudeau is particularly popular in this country.

00:20:30.420 And what Mark Carney has really tried to do is position himself as an outsider trying to, you know,

00:20:39.360 take over the liberal leadership and, you know, someone who doesn't really have as many connections,

00:20:43.560 wasn't, you know, responsible for the carnage of the Trudeau government.

00:20:47.040 However, a lot of people have disputed this.

00:20:50.460 Mark Carney is good friends with prime minister Justin Trudeau.

00:20:53.180 Justin Trudeau tried to recruit Mark Carney into his government for several years,

00:20:58.500 and he has recently made this statement.

00:21:02.400 And Mark Carney is someone who was, for example, the Bank of Canada governor in Canada and in the United Kingdom.

00:21:09.800 He was the United Nations climate envoy.

00:21:13.840 He has also, you know, been an advisor to Boris Johnson and has worked on the COP26 conference,

00:21:21.320 basically the big climate conference that the United Nations holds every year.

00:21:25.680 So Mark Carney is definitely a man of the establishment.

00:21:28.900 He is not a man of the people.

00:21:30.260 He might try and portray himself like that, but every time he steps onto, you know, a soccer field, a football field, an ice rink,

00:21:36.580 he looks awkward.

00:21:37.560 He looks like, you know, a robot, a Chinese robot trying to figure out, you know, how to be human. 1.00

00:21:42.160 But it really will be interesting to see how Mark Carney runs away from that sort of technocratic elitist record,

00:21:52.060 run away from his statements on the carbon tax, and if he can outmaneuver someone like Chrystia Freeland,

00:21:58.620 who has actually been in elected politics for 10 years, well, more than 10 years,

00:22:03.400 and who really knows their way around the political game.

00:22:08.800 Now, that doesn't mean that Chrystia Freeland is a particularly talented politician. 0.99

00:22:11.480 She's not.

00:22:12.820 But, you know, you have someone who has very little experience running in politics going against someone who is a born politician.

00:22:23.540 It's like the Mike Tyson fight against Jake Paul.

00:22:29.000 So, you know, and you can draw more analogies to that fight in more than one way.

00:22:33.360 But it'll definitely be interesting to see how Mark Carney does in this liberal leadership.

00:22:39.420 And, Cosman, thinking of specifics that have recently happened, of course,

00:22:42.560 I'm wondering what effect you think this will have on the leadership race,

00:22:46.520 that being Chrystia Freeland's surprise resignation right before the budget,

00:22:50.720 and how that might influence voters.

00:22:52.720 And then, of course, for Carney, I'm wondering if even liberals are against the carbon tax these days.

00:22:59.360 And, of course, carbon tax Carney is the nickname given to Mark Carney by the conservatives.

00:23:04.080 I'm wondering if you think that will have an effect on him.

00:23:07.420 Well, I just had an idea of a game show, and it would be called,

00:23:11.960 Did Mark Carney Say It or Did Chrystia Freeland Say It?

00:23:16.180 Because I think it would be very hard to distinguish between some of the quotes

00:23:20.220 and policy positions of these two individuals.

00:23:22.740 And when you just look at the facts and what they've presented before in the past,

00:23:31.200 you know, you mentioned he's a UN special envoy for the climate.

00:23:34.920 I think Canadians will be looking at whether there's any distinguishing attributes

00:23:40.420 or policy positions between the two frontrunners.

00:23:43.580 Do they support the carbon tax?

00:23:45.720 What's their position on online hate speech, different censorship legislation?

00:23:52.660 What's their position on further taxing Canadians and consistently raising taxes

00:23:59.240 in several different areas, not just the carbon tax?

00:24:02.780 There's the liquor tax.

00:24:04.060 There's also the hidden carbon tax.

00:24:06.640 What's their position on crushing the energy industry,

00:24:11.540 you know, imposing all this legislation that essentially landlocks Canadian energy.

00:24:17.300 And I suspect that there will be little differences to be found between the two.

00:24:23.160 And the only people invested in this race, seriously, are liberal members themselves. 0.57

00:24:31.580 I don't think Canadians look at this race and see a new restart, rather, to the Liberal Party.

00:24:40.620 They see, same as usual, the continued influence of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's nine years

00:24:48.260 of ideological leading in this country.

00:24:52.940 And I just don't see that vitality, that new energy, that willingness from the Liberals

00:25:00.540 to take the party in a totally different direction.

00:25:03.660 There's been a lot of talk about, let's bring the Liberals back to the center-right.

00:25:07.660 That doesn't seem to be happening.

00:25:09.040 It's the same old sort of elitist, pro-globalist agenda.

00:25:15.280 And when you have someone like Mark Carney, who's a member of the World Economic Forum,

00:25:19.600 you know, Chrystia Freeland is affiliated with the World Economic Forum.

00:25:23.920 We have Klaus Schwab saying he's penetrated the cabinets of world governments, including Canada.

00:25:29.600 Right?

00:25:30.100 It just makes you wonder, like, how is this any different?

00:25:33.460 And I don't think it is.

00:25:35.000 Yeah, for your game show, I'll suggest a third choice.

00:25:39.640 Did Mark Carney say it?

00:25:41.120 Did Chrystia Freeland say it?

00:25:42.340 Or did Justin Trudeau say it?

00:25:44.300 And that's obviously another technique that the Conservatives have been implementing against

00:25:50.260 the Liberals, especially against Mark Carney.

00:25:52.060 It's just like Justin.

00:25:53.200 That's their new slogan, just like Justin, because they're arguing that there's really

00:25:57.140 no difference.

00:25:57.740 And bringing it back to Harper, he actually discussed this in his interview where he said

00:26:01.740 the new Liberal leader is essentially in an untenable position because to win the leadership

00:26:07.160 election, they're going to have to present themselves as a bastion of the Liberal Party

00:26:11.040 who supports the Liberal Party policies and what it has become, a Liberal Party that polls

00:26:16.400 are showing Canadians are done with.

00:26:18.520 So then they have to go into an election potentially a few weeks later when Parliament resumes if

00:26:24.280 a non-confidence vote passes.

00:26:26.380 And they've just been a supporter of the Liberal Party, a party that Canadians are done with.

00:26:30.440 So they're really in an unwinnable situation, which might be why we've seen many people try

00:26:36.240 and distance themselves from this leadership election and not participate.

00:26:40.980 Yeah.

00:26:42.420 Let's bring it more provincially, Cosmin.

00:26:45.380 And obviously you live in British Columbia.

00:26:47.500 So a few things coming up with these election concerns, let's call them.

00:26:55.640 I'm curious in talking to local residents whether they are concerned about what happened in the

00:27:01.420 election.

00:27:01.800 Obviously, it took a long time to tally, but now we're seeing a potential investigation

00:27:06.380 in one of the ridings that had 22 votes.

00:27:08.900 Yeah.

00:27:09.040 Do you want to talk to us about that?

00:27:11.780 Okay.

00:27:11.980 So this was an incredibly close election.

00:27:16.020 It was also a new phenomenon for this province to have a conservative party enter the official

00:27:23.980 opposition and surge in the polls in the same way they did.

00:27:28.620 Running into the 2024 election, there were polls showing the BC NDP and the BC Conservatives neck

00:27:36.640 and neck.

00:27:38.200 And we're talking about certain ridings.

00:27:40.260 There's a handful of ridings that were within a few dozen votes.

00:27:44.600 So if you're not at least questioning whether the process was run properly, I think that's like the democratic thing to do to say, let's make sure we got this right, that the people's vote was counted properly, and that there was no mucking about in the process of it.

00:28:05.180 Right. And to say that any criticism that there is no such thing as human error and any criticism of ballot counting and the way the election is conducted is anti-democratic is ridiculous. 0.51

00:28:19.060 It is the democratic thing to do to have scrutiny of elections.

00:28:24.060 Now, what we're talking about here specifically, I think the most convincing argument that the BC Conservatives have put forward relates to the Surrey-Guildford riding, which was won by the BC NDP candidate by a margin of 22 votes.

00:28:44.140 And what they're alleging is that there is a group home where there's people with dementia, with different mental health concerns.

00:28:53.500 It's called Argyll Lodge, and they're alleging that there were some voter irregularities here.

00:29:00.960 And now they filed the candidate, the Conservative candidate for that riding has filed a legal complaint.

00:29:07.400 And Elections BC is looking into it, and they have several affidavits from residents at this center or lodge, which claim that they received mail-in ballots without actually requesting them when there was a ballot location directly across the street from this facility.

00:29:32.040 And they're not prevented from leaving the facility, they have free roam, they can exit the facility and go vote if they wanted to.

00:29:40.240 There are also allegations that some of the residents didn't even know there was an election happening.

00:29:46.240 There are allegations that there are people who cast mail-in ballots who don't have their wits about them, they suffer from mental health concerns, confusion, etc.

00:29:55.420 There are allegations that they were told to mark the X in the box, quote-unquote, on these mail-in ballots.

00:30:03.360 And there are also allegations that some of them felt pressure that if they didn't cast this mail-in ballot, they might not be treated fairly at this facility.

00:30:12.620 And also, there is Elections BC data that shows that the manager in question of this location is a BC NDP donor in 2023.

00:30:26.560 Now, I would like to add for the record that the manager has said that there is no wrongdoing, and they've disputed the claims that the BC Conservatives have made.

00:30:37.860 There has been no court to actually overturn any election results yet.

00:30:44.040 That particular writing actually went into a judicial recount, and the Supreme Court of British Columbia certified the voting results.

00:30:54.840 But the question is, was the BC Supreme Court aware of this particular facility?

00:31:01.420 I don't think so, because this is the first time it's been brought up.

00:31:04.760 So, an investigation has been launched by Elections BC.

00:31:08.900 The BC Conservative leader, John Rustad, has made several recommendations to bring forward more evidence.

00:31:16.200 And essentially, they've also filed a complaint with the RCMP to investigate violations of the BC Elections Act.

00:31:26.060 So, all of this combined, it is quite a bomb to throw into the election, whether it will actually turn into a by-election, which I think might be the outcome they hope for is a by-election in this specific writing to do it over again.

00:31:45.440 People aren't certain, and it's not obvious that the courts will actually be willing to take that step to relaunch an election just so soon after it happens.

00:32:00.500 So, again, if it does happen, we're talking about a very slim majority for the NDP.

00:32:06.000 They lose one seat, and it's pretty much game over for them.

00:32:10.260 So, yeah, a lot happening in British Columbia, and it makes one wonder whether, you know, I've seen on social media, a lot of people were concerned about how the elections, BC, ran the last election.

00:32:24.060 They took so long to certify votes and count mail-in ballots.

00:32:27.680 And is there enough faith in mail-in ballots, right?

00:32:31.540 Like, I would throw that question to you guys.

00:32:36.220 Well, for example, we know, in Alberta at least, there's been a lot of developments around election integrity, not just mail-in ballots, but, for example, electronic tabulators have been the main point of discussion.

00:32:50.840 And Smith and her government have been steadfast in their view that hand-counted ballots from voting stations are the main, the best way forward.

00:33:01.120 But, Cosman, I just wanted to ask quickly, because you only alluded to this.

00:33:03.760 If this, say, an investigation occurred and there was wrongdoing found and this rioting flipped, what would that mean for the provincial government in BC?

00:33:12.980 Yeah, so they won with a slim majority.

00:33:15.140 They had to, essentially, nominate somebody to be Speaker of the House because nobody else wanted to do it.

00:33:23.780 So that leaves them with very little wiggle room.

00:33:27.300 They've had to create a coalition with the Green MLAs, and I think there's two that were elected, which gives them majority status.

00:33:37.660 And, you know, they'll have to negotiate and do certain things that the Greens ask of them to continue being in power.

00:33:46.480 But whether they will actually last a full mandate of four years, that's yet to be seen.

00:33:52.220 We're talking about a situation where somebody misses, you know, they don't, they hit the snooze button too many times and they don't show up for a crucial vote.

00:34:01.580 Or, God forbid, you know, somebody gets in an accident, somebody passes away, somebody is ill, you know, somebody goes on maternity leave, right? 0.78

00:34:11.060 There are so many circumstances that could push this government into a non-confidence vote, which would surely be triggered by the BC Conservatives triggering another election in British Columbia.

00:34:24.320 And that would leave, you know, the official opposition, John Rustad, when he was elected, he promised to trigger election as soon as possible.

00:34:36.320 And, Noah, what do you think about the whole mail-in ballots situation?

00:34:40.900 Should elections just be at voting stations and hand-counted?

00:34:46.140 I think the simpler an election is conducted, the better.

00:34:49.600 A lot of people definitely distressed when, you know, you have to mail in your ballots, when you're punching a vote into a machine, you know, electronic voting systems.

00:35:01.160 These sort of intermediaries to, you know, the voter and the actual election results really is harmful to the trust, you know, in elections.

00:35:10.660 And we saw that in the United States in the 2020 election where, because of COVID-19, they had to conduct an election where a lot of ballots were mailed in.

00:35:20.060 And the Republicans, they brought up a lot of concerns with these mail-in ballots, so much so that it basically caused a mini-political crisis in that country.

00:35:29.500 Now, we haven't had, you know, the same level, same level of concerns as we have, that they have in the United States.

00:35:37.460 Alberta, they have worked towards making some electoral reforms, but there's definitely concerns with, say, ballot harvesting.

00:35:45.420 You know, if you have parties going around basically offering to collect ballots and mail them in on behalf of the voter, you know, there could be some nefarious going on with, you know, ballot harvesting.

00:35:57.260 You could have ballots that get damaged in the mail.

00:36:00.380 You know, what if someone decides during election season to pour a cup of coffee down a Canada Post bin?

00:36:06.140 Now you have a bunch of ballots that get ruined.

00:36:09.440 You know, there are serious things that can be done to just interfere with an election when there are mail-in ballots.

00:36:15.940 I, you know, I'm not, like, the smartest guy in Canada, and I was able to come up with a way to tarnish a bunch of ballots in five seconds.

00:36:22.980 So I'm pretty sure, you know, much more devious and much more intellectual people can come up with ways to, you know, go about rigging an election or, at the very least, messing with the integrity of an election.

00:36:34.860 Now, there's no real, concrete, definitive evidence to say that the B.C. conservatives are right on this issue when it comes to the election being illegitimate in this rioting.

00:36:47.980 But when you have mail-in ballots, when you have electronic tabulators, when you have these sort of intermediaries between the voter and the election results, you're going to create more and more distrust.

00:37:00.420 And, you know, there are real serious Democratic consequences to this.

00:37:06.000 So I hope that Elections B.C. does everything they can in their power to ensure the validity of the election results and hope that we have the we get a result that results in the Democrat, the Democratic process being played out to its conclusion.

00:37:22.420 Conclusion and voters being enfranchised to make sure that they are actually, you know, being able to vote for the people that are ruling over them rather than just, you know, giving blind hope in and blind faith in Elections B.C.

00:37:37.640 that they'll do the right thing.

00:37:38.780 If I may just bring this back to the liberal leadership, that was a situation where the party was facing so much scrutiny over their membership rules, right?

00:37:50.600 We have the Liberal Party of Canada essentially only requiring proof of residence within Canada.

00:37:58.080 You don't have to be a permanent resident.

00:37:59.720 You don't have to be a Canadian citizen to become a Liberal Party member.

00:38:04.720 All you have to do is prove that you somehow have spent time in Canada and they were forced because of all the scrutiny from the Elections Canada, you know, past campaigners from just the media and political world itself and security establishment to revise those rules, at least for the Liberal leadership race, where if you want to vote in the Liberal leadership, you now have to prove that you're a Canadian citizen.

00:38:33.760 Or a permanent resident because of the implications and all of the unanswered questions we have to this day regarding foreign interference in Canada's elections.

00:38:45.900 You know, we have claims about Chinese seniors being bussed by the consulate to independent MP Handong's writing when he was nominated for the Liberal candidacy in the last election.

00:38:59.380 And these issues are real.

00:39:03.840 There are powers trying to influence our election and the more stringent and secure the voting process is, the more confidence you inspire in the average voter.

00:39:18.700 Yeah, and just briefly, the last thing we'll maybe touch on here, Cosmin, I'm curious, with the federal election looming, do you think Canadians nationwide should have similar concerns and whether there's anything the Liberals or Elections Canada, for example, could implement to make sure that our elections are the most secure that they can be?

00:39:41.920 Well, there will definitely be a discussion about foreign interference, naturally, given all of the claims that have been put out there in just the last year or so.

00:39:52.740 You know, there's an inquiry into the foreign interference, the Prime Minister refuses to release the list of his MP of the MPs who are accused of being under the influence knowingly or unknowingly of foreign powers.

00:40:08.340 Will those MPs? Will those MPs run again? We have no idea, right? There is a very plausible scenario where the, you know, what is it, 11 or 12 MPs named on that list are running for re-election.

00:40:21.540 We don't know. Voters don't know. And when they go to the ballot, vote for that candidate, they have no clue.

00:40:27.280 And I think that raises a huge problem because there will be, in the informed voter, that question in the back of their mind, is this individual a foreign agent or at least under the influence of a foreign agent, whether they are or not?

00:40:45.060 You know, it could be a perfectly legitimate candidate who has, you know, his own writing or her own writing's best interests at heart.

00:40:54.140 But the voter, knowing what we know about the list of MPs, could still be asking those questions about a perfectly legitimate candidate unless the government clears the air, which they have shown absolutely no intention of doing.

00:41:08.760 All right. Again, my name's Isaac Llamour. I'm happy to be joined by my colleagues, Cosmin Jirja and Noah Jarvis. And remember, everything you heard today was off the record.

00:41:23.640 How'd that go? First time hosting? Not bad, eh?

00:41:27.080 Yeah, pretty good job. I think, yeah, no, I think the first time Andrew...

00:41:31.840 Personally.

00:41:32.840 He was, yeah, he was complaining a lot and stuff. So you're definitely on the right track there.

00:41:40.080 No, I never complain. No, I'm happy to be here. I just sit here and smile. It's all good.

00:41:45.680 I'm just wondering.

00:41:48.760 I was just going to wonder...

00:41:50.120 I'll just say, Isaac's a favorite amongst the donor class, the two-north donor class.

00:41:55.400 They really, they love that Albertan chin, you know, that really great sort of manly jawline.

00:42:03.840 So, no, I think if you post more often, we'll get some more donors.

00:42:09.040 You know, maybe you'll get a pay increase. Who knows?

00:42:12.500 That'd be nice, eh?

00:42:14.760 What were you going to say, Cosmin?

00:42:16.000 Yeah.

00:42:16.480 I was just wondering, like, who do you think is going to be next to announce their candidacy?

00:42:21.220 Like, will it be... I know Karina Gold has said she's going to go...

00:42:24.820 Yeah, I heard she was going to announce soon, but I don't know.

00:42:27.960 We see all these names pop up.

00:42:29.720 I don't know who could announce that won't make it a race between Carney and Freeland, right?

00:42:33.840 Like, that's what we're looking at here, I think.

00:42:36.620 So, once they're declared...

00:42:39.220 Like, with Freeland and Carney being declared, at that point, other candidates might just be like,

00:42:45.540 oh, why would I even bother?

00:42:46.500 Unless they want to, as Noah kind of talked about earlier, push their platform forward in some way, right?

00:42:52.880 Yeah.

00:42:53.500 It looks like Noah's equipment failed right at the right time.

00:42:58.600 Yeah.

00:42:59.420 We're just happy that we made it through a show with his equipment.

00:43:02.100 It's a true blessing.

Juno News - January 17, 2025

Will Canada survive the Trump tariffs？

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