Juno News - Will Conservatives ever win again in Canada？

00:00:00.040 What is the future for Conservatives in Canada? What will it take for them to win federally?

00:00:04.740 What will it take for them to maintain power in Ontario and in Alberta?

00:00:08.240 We'll speak to a pollster today to discuss. I'm Candice Malcolm and this is The Candice Malcolm Show.

00:00:17.000 Hi everyone, thank you so much for tuning in.

00:00:19.280 So as we get into December, as we get closer to the Christmas break,

00:00:22.620 we focus a little bit less on news here at The Candice Malcolm Show

00:00:25.580 because frankly there's not a lot of new news other than just the latest panic over COVID numbers or whatever.

00:00:31.940 So we like to slow down a little bit, reflect on the year behind, and talk a little bit about the year ahead.

00:00:37.880 And so to do that today, I am joined by Hamish Marshall.

00:00:40.840 Now, you might remember Hamish because he was True North's in-house pollster during the 2021 election.

00:00:46.700 It was a great pleasure to have Hamish on our team, on our staff.

00:00:49.880 He joined The Candice Malcolm Show once a week for an interview.

00:00:53.340 He did a really comprehensive guide to the writings that mattered.

00:00:58.080 He joined us for a live broadcast. It was really great to have Hamish with us.

00:01:01.760 Hamish is a partner at One Persuasion.

00:01:04.520 He was the Conservative Party's national campaign manager in the 2019 federal election,

00:01:09.020 and he ran Andrew Scheer's winning leadership campaign.

00:01:12.440 Hamish was also Prime Minister Stephen Harper's pollster

00:01:14.980 and helped the Conservatives win a majority government back in 2011.

00:01:19.340 So Hamish, thank you so much.

00:01:20.940 We've missed you on The Candice Malcolm Show, but it's great to have you back.

00:01:23.400 It's great to be back, yeah.

00:01:25.500 So let's look back at 2021.

00:01:29.260 Specifically, let's talk about the election campaign there,

00:01:31.900 because it was kind of a nothing election,

00:01:34.560 and the results were almost exactly what we had going out of it.

00:01:37.680 So I know that there weren't really a lot of highlights for most Canadians.

00:01:40.980 Most Canadians probably wish it didn't happen,

00:01:42.540 or at least wish that the $600 million bill that came with it didn't happen.

00:01:46.120 But for you, Hamish, what was sort of the highlight of that election campaign?

00:01:50.940 What was the biggest moment that sort of shaped the election,

00:01:53.400 shaped voters' minds in terms of how they voted?

00:01:55.880 Look, it was an election about expectations.

00:01:58.240 More than any other election I've ever experienced in my life,

00:02:01.480 it was an election about what people thought,

00:02:03.500 how everyone was going to do out of that election.

00:02:07.260 Trudeau called the election because he thought he could get a majority.

00:02:09.560 That's what his expectations were high.

00:02:13.040 You know, O'Toole had had very, very bad polling numbers

00:02:16.000 in the summer leading into the election.

00:02:17.460 The expectations were low for the Conservatives.

00:02:19.280 But then almost immediately it flipped.

00:02:21.160 You know, Trudeau called this election,

00:02:22.840 didn't seem to have a plan to explain why we're having an election to anybody.

00:02:26.440 And then O'Toole had a good, you know, first week, maybe two.

00:02:31.460 And suddenly it looked like O'Toole could win,

00:02:33.600 and then expectations got way out of whack, right?

00:02:36.220 Then it suddenly became O'Toole's going to win,

00:02:37.840 and I think one poll had them at 38% at one point.

00:02:41.460 And, you know, they thought they were going to win.

00:02:44.100 And on the flip side, you know, Trudeau's expectations were lowered for him.

00:02:48.380 And so on election day, we end up with, you know,

00:02:50.720 liberals in the end picking up three seats,

00:02:53.640 which if you'd asked anybody the day before

00:02:55.860 what they thought they were going to get,

00:02:56.940 that was exceeding expectations.

00:02:58.560 It was completely below what the expectations were

00:03:00.640 five weeks before when the election was called.

00:03:02.660 And then flip side O'Toole thought they were in position to win

00:03:05.560 and ended up losing two seats.

00:03:07.840 Which I guess in the overall context isn't terrible,

00:03:11.220 but it's certainly a step in the wrong direction.

00:03:14.100 And a lot of the results in individual ridings

00:03:17.020 were certainly very discouraging for the Conservatives.

00:03:20.720 Well, it's interesting how Justin Trudeau, you know,

00:03:25.100 after winning two elections, managed to somehow kind of shape himself

00:03:28.560 like an underdog in the campaign.

00:03:30.940 And we thought that maybe voters were going to punish him,

00:03:34.100 but then it turned out that they were sort of indifferent to it.

00:03:37.200 You mentioned that the pollsters had Aaron O'Toole up at 38%.

00:03:41.020 I remember at the time you were always a little skeptical

00:03:43.580 of those really high numbers.

00:03:45.360 I wonder, you know, given the sort of flack

00:03:48.820 that your profession has had over the last couple of years,

00:03:51.200 I would say ever since the 2016 U.S. election

00:03:53.780 where the pollsters just got it so wrong,

00:03:56.000 how did you think pollsters did in this election?

00:03:58.880 Did they get it right?

00:04:00.000 Or do you think that they still sort of missed the mark?

00:04:03.580 Look, I think like anything, it's a big profession.

00:04:05.540 I didn't count, but I think it was probably about a dozen,

00:04:08.960 maybe as many as 15 companies released polls

00:04:11.020 through the Canadian federal election.

00:04:12.200 And some of them did a very good job

00:04:14.040 and some of them do not have a record that was as good.

00:04:19.160 So if you look at, you know,

00:04:20.280 I don't want to, I'm not going to go through

00:04:21.400 any of everyone's rating.

00:04:22.480 We look at someone like Leger.

00:04:23.500 Leger did a very good job

00:04:24.680 and got the results very, very, very close.

00:04:28.400 And there's definitely a tier of professional,

00:04:31.060 often larger organizations

00:04:32.460 that have a good record of being quite accurate.

00:04:35.700 And then generally speaking,

00:04:36.920 we see that the pollsters that use demon dial technology

00:04:41.020 tend to get swingier results.

00:04:43.060 They tend to show,

00:04:44.060 they show the PPC shooting up to 10 or 11

00:04:45.960 when the PPC ended up getting, you know, five.

00:04:48.600 They were the ones who showed the Tories way up at one point

00:04:51.180 and then also showed them way down at another point.

00:04:53.800 So the technology, I think, sorts out a little bit.

00:04:56.440 So generally speaking, I think, you know,

00:04:58.820 looking at the demon dial

00:05:00.560 or the interactive voice response surveys,

00:05:03.180 I think you can see more and more of that jumping around,

00:05:06.800 which, you know, frankly, in some elections,

00:05:08.720 maybe there is big swings going on.

00:05:10.760 But I don't really believe there were in this election.

00:05:13.040 You know, I don't think what happened in the election

00:05:16.340 justified the big swings.

00:05:17.940 We've heard a lot about a concept

00:05:19.840 of the sort of shy Tory vote or phenomenon

00:05:23.120 where Canadians or Americans, whoever,

00:05:26.460 Conservatives, don't really feel like telling pollsters the truth.

00:05:29.300 They don't want to say that they support a Conservative

00:05:31.520 because they see Conservatives getting demonized in the media.

00:05:35.100 Do you think there's anything to that theory?

00:05:37.560 And do you think it applies in practice here in Canada?

00:05:40.440 Absolutely.

00:05:41.020 I mean, you know, the Conservatives won the popular vote

00:05:43.900 both in 2020 and in 2021,

00:05:46.940 not by huge amounts, but they were ahead.

00:05:49.140 And very, very, very few of the polls,

00:05:51.600 even some of those most reputable pollsters,

00:05:53.940 showed them ahead going into either of those elections.

00:05:57.700 So the statutory phenomenon exists.

00:06:01.360 I don't think it's massive.

00:06:02.340 I don't think, you know, I think it might count

00:06:03.920 for 1% of the electorate, maybe 2% in some areas.

00:06:06.400 It's not big, but I think it definitely exists.

00:06:08.700 I also think there's a significant chance

00:06:10.140 it's going to increase as time goes on.

00:06:12.500 You know, as what we're seeing

00:06:14.200 is we're seeing trust in the media,

00:06:16.000 certainly the old legacy media,

00:06:17.460 not places like Trinorth,

00:06:18.740 but we're seeing Conservatives on the whole

00:06:21.040 begin to lose trust in a lot of those institutions.

00:06:23.720 So when they get called,

00:06:25.000 they're less likely to participate,

00:06:26.420 perhaps in a poll from a pollster,

00:06:29.240 or they're more likely to sort of hedge their bets

00:06:31.960 and say they're undecided when they're really not.

00:06:34.580 Well, I want to pick up on that concept of the media

00:06:37.280 sort of being a little out of touch

00:06:39.120 from Conservatives specifically,

00:06:41.740 but also just Canadians by and large.

00:06:43.680 I mean, look, everyone I talk to,

00:06:45.920 everyone I know,

00:06:47.440 the issues that they're thinking about

00:06:48.640 and that they care about

00:06:49.460 is all related to cost of living.

00:06:51.780 It's all about the rising cost of gasoline,

00:06:54.640 the cost of things in the grocery store,

00:06:56.300 worrying about Christmas items,

00:06:57.760 the unaffordability of buying a home,

00:07:01.000 especially in places like Vancouver and Toronto.

00:07:03.540 And yet, if you tune into the media,

00:07:05.500 if you turn onto the CBC

00:07:06.820 or even picked up a copy of the Globe and Mail,

00:07:10.100 it's basically all about either climate change or COVID.

00:07:13.960 Those are like the only two things

00:07:15.440 that they really cover.

00:07:17.080 Splash in a little bit of like woke hectoring

00:07:19.320 about how like Canada's racist

00:07:21.440 or these are the words that you shouldn't use anymore.

00:07:24.180 That was on the CBC earlier this week.

00:07:27.260 Why is it that the media is so different from Canadians?

00:07:32.600 And I mean, you're a pollster,

00:07:34.000 so you do polls in the field

00:07:35.560 and you have probably a better idea

00:07:37.820 of what Canadians think.

00:07:40.200 So is it me that's out of touch or is it the media?

00:07:43.200 No, I think broadly speaking, it's the media.

00:07:44.980 And I think, frankly,

00:07:46.420 I think this has been a problem for a long time.

00:07:48.260 There's always been,

00:07:48.880 especially at the sort of more elite newspapers

00:07:50.640 that, you know, the Toronto Star

00:07:51.860 or the Globe and Mail,

00:07:53.400 there's always been a, you know,

00:07:55.520 a view that they want to report

00:07:56.580 what's important to them and people like them

00:07:58.260 and everybody else should learn from that

00:07:59.900 and just simply take their cues.

00:08:02.240 But I also think that, frankly,

00:08:04.080 as they get more and more subsidies

00:08:05.440 from the federal government,

00:08:07.180 the need to, for market reasons,

00:08:11.120 to reflect what people are interested in,

00:08:13.200 diminishes, right?

00:08:14.800 You get into a situation where it doesn't matter

00:08:17.400 as many people buy your papers

00:08:18.880 as long as the federal subsidy checks keep coming

00:08:20.860 or watch your TV show.

00:08:22.720 So it doesn't matter that you're less relevant.

00:08:25.540 The other thing, of course,

00:08:26.220 that's happened is that with, you know,

00:08:29.920 with the amalgamation of a lot of the media,

00:08:32.760 you know, being bought up by large corporations,

00:08:34.740 as well as a lot of media closing,

00:08:37.920 as we go through the shift into the internet,

00:08:39.860 what we're seeing,

00:08:40.580 because there's less competition,

00:08:42.460 they can be less responsive, right?

00:08:44.480 And that's what's interesting.

00:08:46.660 And I think the future is obviously going to be,

00:08:49.140 you know, outlets like True North and others

00:08:50.860 that can build audiences that connect with people

00:08:54.040 on the issues that they actually care about.

00:08:56.240 You know, because we saw, you know,

00:08:58.160 we saw, you know, in the lead up in the summer,

00:09:01.220 we obviously had all the fallout

00:09:02.940 of the residential schools situation.

00:09:06.400 And we saw the fallout for that.

00:09:07.840 And we had, I saw media commentators

00:09:09.220 the entire month of July leading up

00:09:11.420 into the election, early August saying,

00:09:13.120 this election is going to be about

00:09:14.880 indigenous reconciliation.

00:09:16.240 It's going to be about, you know,

00:09:19.040 the fallout from the residential schools.

00:09:22.760 Nobody said any, none of the politicians

00:09:24.320 who actually have to go and get votes

00:09:25.680 really even dealt with it.

00:09:26.960 You know, there was a little bit here and there,

00:09:28.120 but it just was not an issue during the election

00:09:30.700 in any appreciable way.

00:09:32.520 And I think the media is, you know,

00:09:35.080 you know, in a market environment,

00:09:37.880 we'd be in a situation where they would be able to respond.

00:09:40.100 They would need to respond to what people are,

00:09:42.200 are saying about them and,

00:09:46.560 or the issues matter to people,

00:09:48.980 but they don't have to.

00:09:50.040 And we're seeing it, you know,

00:09:51.480 it becomes a bigger problem.

00:09:53.260 You know, not only do the subsidies,

00:09:54.300 but then there's places like the Globe and Mail,

00:09:56.180 which is owned by, you know, the Thompson family.

00:09:59.000 They've owned it for a very long time.

00:10:00.540 And they're just there to preserve the Globe.

00:10:01.840 The Globe and Mail is a jewel in their crown

00:10:04.620 of their media empire.

00:10:05.680 And, you know, of course they want the Globe

00:10:07.640 to make money,

00:10:08.200 but if it loses a bit of money one year,

00:10:10.120 that's not the point, right?

00:10:11.660 So the media is going to become,

00:10:14.800 I believe,

00:10:15.460 more about hectoring and lecturing

00:10:17.740 and telling us all what we should care about.

00:10:19.940 And the disconnect from the mainstream media

00:10:23.940 is only going to increase.

00:10:26.040 That's a really good point,

00:10:27.280 that the legacy media that are funded,

00:10:29.660 at least in part,

00:10:30.400 are subsidized by the federal government.

00:10:32.220 They're really playing for an audience of one,

00:10:33.880 and that is Justin Trudeau,

00:10:35.060 because as long as Trudeau's happy,

00:10:36.400 you know, they're making their money

00:10:37.900 and they don't mind.

00:10:39.320 Amish, I want to switch back to conservatives, 0.81

00:10:42.740 both, you know, the federal scene as well.

00:10:45.140 You know, it's going to be a big year,

00:10:46.140 2022 in Ontario with an election campaign,

00:10:49.440 in Alberta with a potential leadership review

00:10:51.860 for Premier Jason Kenney.

00:10:54.040 So let's start federally.

00:10:55.540 What do you think conservatives need to focus on

00:10:58.520 in 2022 to make inroads,

00:11:00.640 to gain ground,

00:11:01.760 and, you know, to position themselves

00:11:04.760 if and when the next federal election should happen?

00:11:09.920 Well, I think right now it has to be all about inflation.

00:11:13.040 And it has to be more than just sort of

00:11:15.740 ranting about inflation

00:11:16.760 as some sort of anonymous global force,

00:11:18.920 like, you know, a hurricane.

00:11:20.540 It's about tying inflation to Justin Trudeau.

00:11:23.380 The reason why, you know,

00:11:24.800 it costs more to fill up your car

00:11:27.400 is because we don't have the pipelines

00:11:28.880 to get Canadian oil and gas

00:11:33.000 to different parts of the country.

00:11:34.400 The reason why,

00:11:35.600 and not to mention a carbon tax, of course,

00:11:37.360 the reason why, you know,

00:11:39.520 it costs more to buy all sorts of other things

00:11:41.140 is because, you know, money,

00:11:43.160 the cost of money is money.

00:11:45.540 So cheap right now,

00:11:46.080 because money supply has grown so much

00:11:47.940 because of Trudeau's overspending.

00:11:49.600 You know, it's unclear to me

00:11:51.460 when interest rates are going to go up,

00:11:53.200 although the Bank of Canada

00:11:54.920 is now talking about them

00:11:55.780 in a way that they wouldn't dream

00:11:57.160 of talking about it

00:11:57.880 even three or four months ago.

00:12:00.520 You know, when interest rates go up

00:12:02.680 and people's mortgages start costing more

00:12:04.540 and their car payments start costing more,

00:12:06.700 this is a result

00:12:07.460 of Justin Trudeau's monetary policy

00:12:09.360 and his out-of-control spending,

00:12:11.280 which he will try to pretend

00:12:12.620 is all about COVID,

00:12:13.540 but frankly, really predates COVID.

00:12:15.400 And there's an awful lot of spending

00:12:16.500 in their COVID package

00:12:17.540 that was, you know, simply unnecessary.

00:12:19.800 So conservatives have to

00:12:21.800 not only focus relentlessly on inflation,

00:12:24.060 but build the bridge

00:12:25.280 between the Trudeau and inflation.

00:12:27.840 And then the follow-up to that,

00:12:29.480 which maybe is more of a 2023 thing,

00:12:31.540 but is then explain

00:12:32.920 how they would do things

00:12:34.500 significantly differently

00:12:35.960 as to credibly be able

00:12:37.700 to solve the problem.

00:12:39.520 And I think they have to be focused

00:12:40.920 like a laser on it.

00:12:42.660 That's great.

00:12:43.380 Yeah.

00:12:43.660 Okay, well, let's move on to Ontario then.

00:12:45.760 So it looks like

00:12:46.340 there's going to be an election.

00:12:47.320 What are things looking like

00:12:49.000 on that front?

00:12:49.940 And do you think that Doug Ford

00:12:51.380 is a shoe-in for Premier again?

00:12:55.020 I don't.

00:12:55.840 I think assuming that

00:12:56.920 this Ontario election

00:12:57.960 is going to be a shoe-in for anybody

00:12:59.040 would be a big mistake.

00:13:00.540 The polling jumps around a bit,

00:13:02.240 but it's fairly consistent

00:13:03.300 that the conservatives,

00:13:05.300 the PCs,

00:13:05.840 are somewhere in the mid-30s.

00:13:07.720 Sometimes they pull up 36, 37,

00:13:09.280 sometimes they're down at 33.

00:13:10.580 It bounces around a bit,

00:13:12.120 but they're fairly consistently

00:13:13.440 within a point or two of 35,

00:13:15.400 let's say.

00:13:15.800 The NDP and the Liberals

00:13:19.440 have spent most of the last year

00:13:20.940 more or less being tied

00:13:22.080 somewhere in the high 20s.

00:13:24.400 What I believe will happen

00:13:25.820 going into this year

00:13:26.660 is there will be consolidation

00:13:27.840 around one of those two parties.

00:13:29.360 We're unlikely to be going in

00:13:30.540 with a three-way split.

00:13:32.580 We're going to see,

00:13:33.520 you know,

00:13:34.020 either the Liberals

00:13:34.720 or the NDP fall back

00:13:35.840 and the other one profiting from that

00:13:37.460 and saying we're the only people

00:13:38.640 who can beat Doug Ford.

00:13:40.180 You know,

00:13:40.500 Ford's numbers are a lot better now

00:13:41.660 than they were before the pandemic.

00:13:43.460 He's done a reasonably good job

00:13:45.180 of going through the pandemic

00:13:47.260 and has gained some popularity

00:13:48.900 and some trust from that,

00:13:50.160 which helps and makes

00:13:51.280 this next election

00:13:51.980 a lot easier

00:13:52.880 than it otherwise would have been.

00:13:54.500 But this is going to be

00:13:55.460 a very, very tough fight

00:13:56.480 and I know a lot of people

00:13:57.620 are very dismissive

00:13:58.820 of both Corvath and Del Duca

00:14:00.960 saying,

00:14:01.740 well,

00:14:01.920 nobody sees them as a premier.

00:14:03.540 It doesn't really matter.

00:14:06.640 I think being dismissive

00:14:08.300 at this point

00:14:09.120 would be a big, big mistake

00:14:10.320 and assuming

00:14:11.260 that both the Liberals

00:14:13.020 and the NDP

00:14:13.420 are going to be

00:14:14.020 more or less tied

00:14:14.940 for second place

00:14:15.840 is also a big mistake.

00:14:18.120 So what do you think

00:14:18.960 the Conservatives

00:14:19.620 then have to do?

00:14:20.320 Because I know

00:14:21.220 for Doug Ford,

00:14:23.040 a lot of sort of

00:14:24.400 grassroots Conservatives

00:14:25.800 are really fed up with him,

00:14:27.540 don't like the COVID lockdowns,

00:14:29.260 don't like the restrictions,

00:14:30.400 don't like some

00:14:30.880 of the flip-flops

00:14:31.460 that he's had

00:14:32.040 over vaccine mandates

00:14:34.040 and so on.

00:14:36.080 So there is

00:14:36.640 some disenfranchisement

00:14:37.460 and then it seems like

00:14:38.480 the people who think

00:14:39.220 he's done a great job

00:14:40.620 are sort of more

00:14:41.600 like the centrist

00:14:42.560 media crowd,

00:14:43.420 which seems to be

00:14:44.380 the ones

00:14:44.780 that he does

00:14:45.780 really need

00:14:46.240 to hold on to.

00:14:48.060 So what do you think

00:14:49.580 the best strategy

00:14:50.380 is for the

00:14:51.620 Progressive Conservatives

00:14:52.320 in Ontario?

00:14:53.440 Well, I think

00:14:53.820 they've got to make sure

00:14:55.000 every single last

00:14:55.820 living Conservative

00:14:56.440 comes out to vote.

00:14:58.020 You know,

00:14:58.200 they got 40.5%

00:14:59.620 last time,

00:15:00.280 which was not huge

00:15:01.440 compared to,

00:15:03.860 say, Mike Harris'

00:15:04.460 victories,

00:15:05.000 45% in each

00:15:06.480 of his elections

00:15:07.160 or in each

00:15:09.160 of his victories.

00:15:09.680 So, you know,

00:15:11.560 being down to 35%,

00:15:12.700 like there's not

00:15:13.040 a lot of margin

00:15:13.680 for error

00:15:14.260 and being down

00:15:15.240 around 35%,

00:15:16.600 you know,

00:15:17.680 the problem

00:15:18.660 that the,

00:15:19.120 I have no doubt

00:15:20.260 that the PCs

00:15:21.360 can win the most seats.

00:15:23.500 It's winning

00:15:24.060 a majority government

00:15:25.000 that I think

00:15:25.380 is going to be,

00:15:25.980 is going to be difficult.

00:15:27.580 And on top of that,

00:15:29.680 the,

00:15:30.980 because the chances

00:15:31.720 of the Liberals

00:15:32.220 and NDP

00:15:32.460 creating a coalition

00:15:33.320 is about 100%,

00:15:34.900 you know,

00:15:35.260 if the PCs

00:15:36.040 don't win a majority.

00:15:37.200 So, you know,

00:15:38.440 their quest for a majority,

00:15:39.420 they've got to make sure

00:15:40.240 every living,

00:15:40.860 every breathing,

00:15:41.400 living conservative

00:15:42.560 comes out and votes.

00:15:43.480 They've got to do

00:15:43.860 some things

00:15:44.440 to motivate their base

00:15:45.320 and get them excited

00:15:46.040 to come out and vote.

00:15:47.680 And they've got to,

00:15:49.240 once whomever emerges

00:15:51.320 as the most likely

00:15:54.500 anti-forward person,

00:15:55.520 whether it's Horvath

00:15:56.060 or Del Duca,

00:15:57.060 they have to do

00:15:57.520 a very effective job

00:15:58.560 of making that person

00:15:59.400 look very, very risky

00:16:00.420 and being someone

00:16:04.580 that people have

00:16:05.340 to come out to stop.

00:16:07.100 And, but, you know,

00:16:08.200 if they're going

00:16:08.920 to get from 35%

00:16:10.800 up to 38, 39

00:16:12.120 in order to win

00:16:12.680 a majority,

00:16:13.760 they've got to,

00:16:14.840 they've got their work

00:16:15.900 cut out for them.

00:16:17.520 Some of those suggestions,

00:16:18.920 Samish,

00:16:19.200 sounded a little,

00:16:20.160 a little bit like

00:16:20.800 the 2006 federal campaign

00:16:22.720 for Harper,

00:16:23.400 you know,

00:16:23.580 the idea that you'd have

00:16:24.480 some scary coalition

00:16:25.420 and that the other side

00:16:27.240 is just not,

00:16:27.680 not trustworthy,

00:16:28.460 Ryan's view of what,

00:16:30.080 what they did

00:16:30.680 with Stefan Dion.

00:16:31.520 But anyway,

00:16:32.700 I want to move on.

00:16:33.380 Finally,

00:16:33.860 final question here.

00:16:34.880 What do things

00:16:36.420 look like in Alberta?

00:16:37.640 Do you think our friend,

00:16:38.960 Premier Jason Kenney,

00:16:40.180 stands a good chance

00:16:41.100 of being Premier

00:16:41.640 at the end,

00:16:42.400 you know,

00:16:42.620 a year from now?

00:16:43.320 Or do you think

00:16:43.980 that he's handled

00:16:45.420 things too poorly

00:16:46.040 and that he can't

00:16:46.560 make it up?

00:16:47.520 I think he's had,

00:16:48.480 I think he's had

00:16:49.020 a very difficult go

00:16:50.320 the last few months.

00:16:51.260 The amount of turmoil

00:16:52.320 inside his party,

00:16:54.080 inside his caucus

00:16:54.700 has obviously

00:16:55.240 been significant.

00:16:57.520 You know,

00:16:57.900 I think he's had

00:16:58.640 a better few weeks.

00:16:59.520 I think the ECB convention,

00:17:02.320 I think,

00:17:02.640 didn't blow up

00:17:03.500 into something.

00:17:04.520 I think the chances

00:17:05.380 of a leadership review,

00:17:06.980 now that there are

00:17:07.960 people out there

00:17:09.660 talking about

00:17:11.420 wanting to run

00:17:11.980 for leader,

00:17:12.820 I think the chances

00:17:13.780 that now

00:17:14.960 the alternatives

00:17:16.420 to Premier Kenney

00:17:18.520 become more real.

00:17:21.220 And when you put

00:17:22.260 someone else

00:17:22.720 on the ballot

00:17:23.180 or someone else,

00:17:23.960 that person has

00:17:24.600 lots of pluses,

00:17:25.380 but they also have

00:17:25.840 lots of minuses.

00:17:26.920 And that results

00:17:28.000 in a situation

00:17:28.560 where suddenly

00:17:29.160 you're no longer

00:17:30.240 comparing,

00:17:30.960 you know,

00:17:31.560 Premier Kenney

00:17:32.020 with someone

00:17:32.720 who has

00:17:33.480 some sort

00:17:34.080 of mythical

00:17:34.500 other candidate.

00:17:38.400 So I think

00:17:39.480 he's in a better position.

00:17:40.800 I think he's got

00:17:41.200 a lot of work to do.

00:17:41.960 I think he's got

00:17:42.280 to re-green the trust

00:17:43.240 of a lot of people

00:17:44.640 in his party.

00:17:45.740 I mean,

00:17:45.920 there's obviously

00:17:46.380 a letter from,

00:17:48.000 you know,

00:17:48.260 25% of writing

00:17:49.300 presidents or something

00:17:50.140 demanding a quicker

00:17:51.620 leadership review.

00:17:52.380 So there's obviously

00:17:53.060 been some trust lost

00:17:54.100 and he has to spend

00:17:54.900 a lot of time

00:17:55.960 doing that.

00:17:57.760 You know,

00:17:58.240 if he can get

00:17:58.620 through the spring,

00:17:59.440 I think his chances

00:18:01.140 he'll be,

00:18:01.760 you know,

00:18:02.060 Premier a year from now

00:18:02.880 and be in a position

00:18:03.560 to fight the next election

00:18:04.620 are very,

00:18:05.460 very high.

00:18:06.800 And I especially,

00:18:07.980 I think he's got

00:18:08.580 a good chance of that.

00:18:09.860 You know,

00:18:09.960 the price of oil

00:18:10.980 is up.

00:18:12.120 People generally think

00:18:12.940 it's going to keep going up.

00:18:15.060 You know,

00:18:15.220 there's been a lot

00:18:15.800 of tech investment

00:18:16.480 in Calgary.

00:18:17.800 Things are beginning

00:18:18.460 to get back

00:18:18.980 on their feet.

00:18:19.480 So I think,

00:18:21.260 you know,

00:18:21.840 should he get around

00:18:23.440 to,

00:18:24.020 you know,

00:18:24.220 should he get through

00:18:24.820 the spring

00:18:25.260 and this internal challenge,

00:18:26.780 I think he'll have

00:18:27.320 a pretty good message

00:18:28.120 to take to people

00:18:28.960 in Alberta

00:18:29.420 and be able

00:18:31.300 to paint Rachel

00:18:32.300 Notley as dangerous.

00:18:35.140 That's really,

00:18:35.920 yeah,

00:18:36.140 some really interesting

00:18:36.760 points.

00:18:37.160 It's like,

00:18:37.500 it seems like

00:18:38.080 some of the old players

00:18:38.780 from five,

00:18:39.640 six years ago

00:18:40.500 in Alberta

00:18:40.860 are back

00:18:41.400 on the playing field

00:18:42.640 with Brian Jean

00:18:43.720 looking to run

00:18:44.480 and Danielle Smith

00:18:45.360 voicing some interest

00:18:46.220 there.

00:18:46.620 So it should be

00:18:47.560 a really interesting year

00:18:48.440 on a number of fronts.

00:18:49.280 Hey, Mish,

00:18:49.640 we really appreciate

00:18:50.640 all the insights.

00:18:51.620 As usual,

00:18:52.260 thank you for joining us

00:18:53.280 throughout the year.

00:18:53.860 It was great to have you

00:18:54.420 on our team in 2021

00:18:55.660 and we hope to see

00:18:56.280 a lot more from you

00:18:56.940 in 2022.

00:18:58.320 My pleasure.

00:18:59.600 All right,

00:18:59.880 thank you so much.

00:19:00.520 I'm Candice Malcolm

00:19:01.040 and this is

00:19:01.700 The Candice Malcolm Show.

Juno News - December 01, 2021

Will Conservatives ever win again in Canada？

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