Juno News - July 11, 2021


Will history repeat itself in the next election？

Topics
vote buying
Mentioned
Justin Trudeau Pierre Trudeau Richard Wagner Andrew Scheer Erin O'Toole Mark Simone Joe Clark
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Episode Stats


Length

3 minutes

Words per minute

189.56

Word count

708

Sentence count

71

Harmful content

Hate speech

1

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

The coming election in Canada could prove to be 1974 all over again. In fact, Justin Trudeau is probably counting on it and hopes it'll turn out that way. But before we break down what happened in 1974, why does this matter and why is it relevant today?

Transcript

Transcript generated with Whisper (turbo).
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
Topics generated with Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct.
Hosts, guests, and mentioned names generated with spaCy (en_core_web_sm), reconciled against Wikidata.
00:00:00.000 I think the coming election in Canada could prove to be 1974 all over again.
00:00:10.660 In fact, Justin Trudeau is probably counting on it and hopes it'll turn out that way.
00:00:16.980 But before we break down, well, what happened in 1974 and why does this matter?
00:00:21.440 Why is it relevant today?
00:00:22.960 Let's talk about, wait, election?
00:00:25.160 There's one around the corner?
00:00:26.260 Is that definitely happening?
00:00:27.240 Well, it's not guaranteed to happen, but all signs indicate we're heading in that direction.
00:00:32.480 It's been about two years since the last election in Canada.
00:00:35.220 And while two years may not seem that long, for a minority government,
00:00:38.600 that is about the average lifespan that they have before there is an election.
00:00:43.060 And then the leaders go to the people and try and seek a majority mandate.
00:00:47.680 We've also got Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointing a new Governor General, Mary Simon.
00:00:51.960 That role had been vacant for six months.
00:00:54.060 The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, Richard Wagner, he had kind of been playing the role.
00:00:58.660 But you really need a person permanently in that position, obviously.
00:01:02.520 And you particularly need a GG when you're going to dissolve Parliament.
00:01:05.820 And then later when it reconvenes, you appoint a new cabinet and so forth.
00:01:08.980 Those are all things that the Governor General is a part of.
00:01:11.560 There's one giveaway.
00:01:12.760 Another giveaway is, well, all the giveaways that we're seeing.
00:01:16.400 Justin Trudeau and cabinet ministers flying across the country and handing out cash to people.
00:01:20.980 Doing the pork barrel spending, catering to special interest groups.
00:01:24.940 Clearly a bit of vote buying going on right now.
00:01:27.240 That typically happens in advance of there being an election.
00:01:30.520 So there you have it.
00:01:31.300 Looks like we will have one.
00:01:33.140 And looks like it may follow some of the timing of 1974.
00:01:37.400 So what's that all about?
00:01:39.400 1968, Trudeau mania takes over Canada.
00:01:42.760 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, he wins, gets a majority mandate.
00:01:46.720 1972, no Trudeau mania anymore.
00:01:49.360 In fact, he went to bed thinking he had lost.
00:01:52.080 And then there's a bit of a seat recount.
00:01:53.520 And no, he actually just scraped by, was with a minority government.
00:01:57.560 So majority term, then downgraded to a minority.
00:02:00.860 Sounds familiar?
00:02:01.880 That's just what happened to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
00:02:04.220 Sunnyways, he said.
00:02:05.320 He gets voted in, gets a staggering majority.
00:02:08.120 And then, well, he did not do very well in 2019.
00:02:10.880 Yes, he hung on with a minority.
00:02:12.540 But actually the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer, they got more of the popular vote.
00:02:17.080 They scored more votes from Canadians.
00:02:19.160 More Canadians voted for Conservative than they did Liberal.
00:02:22.080 But based on how it all breaks down in writings, Justin Trudeau, he did manage to hang on just by a little bit there.
00:02:28.960 By the way that the votes actually break down.
00:02:31.360 So we're in a minority situation.
00:02:33.920 1974, what happened to Pierre-Eli Trudeau?
00:02:37.520 Looks like he was only just getting started.
00:02:39.480 He didn't lose.
00:02:40.460 He actually won a majority again.
00:02:43.400 Went from minority to majority.
00:02:45.060 And, well, the rest is history.
00:02:46.520 He hung on as Prime Minister for another 10 years.
00:02:49.240 Aside from that little blip there in 1979 where Joe Clark was Prime Minister for just a little bit.
00:02:54.880 But if you look at all of that, you go, wow, Justin Trudeau.
00:02:58.320 I mean, he knows his father's history.
00:03:00.120 He's kind of hoping he can repeat it.
00:03:02.300 And kind of hoping that, is he about to lose with this minority government? 0.99
00:03:05.960 No, maybe Justin Trudeau is thinking he's just getting started.
00:03:11.120 Wow.
00:03:11.760 If you don't like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, you're not going to like that prediction.
00:03:15.280 But it's what happened for the old man.
00:03:16.880 So maybe it's what can happen for his son.
00:03:18.860 And if you actually look at the polling numbers there, Aaron O'Toole, Conservative leader, really failing to inspire people right now.
00:03:25.040 Anything is possible.
00:03:26.520 Anything can happen.
00:03:27.920 There's been so many examples of times when the polls, just a couple months, just five weeks before Election Day, say one thing.
00:03:33.800 Come Election Day, it means something totally different.
00:03:36.480 So everything's still on the table.
00:03:38.440 But one thing that is also on the table is, yes, it could be 1974 all over again.