Juno News - July 11, 2021


Will history repeat itself in the next election？


Episode Stats

Length

3 minutes

Words per Minute

189.55823

Word Count

708

Sentence Count

62

Hate Speech Sentences

1


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 I think the coming election in Canada could prove to be 1974 all over again.
00:00:10.660 In fact, Justin Trudeau is probably counting on it and hopes it'll turn out that way.
00:00:16.980 But before we break down, well, what happened in 1974 and why does this matter?
00:00:21.440 Why is it relevant today?
00:00:22.960 Let's talk about, wait, election?
00:00:25.160 There's one around the corner?
00:00:26.260 Is that definitely happening?
00:00:27.240 Well, it's not guaranteed to happen, but all signs indicate we're heading in that direction.
00:00:32.480 It's been about two years since the last election in Canada.
00:00:35.220 And while two years may not seem that long, for a minority government,
00:00:38.600 that is about the average lifespan that they have before there is an election.
00:00:43.060 And then the leaders go to the people and try and seek a majority mandate.
00:00:47.680 We've also got Prime Minister Justin Trudeau appointing a new Governor General, Mary Simon.
00:00:51.960 That role had been vacant for six months.
00:00:54.060 The Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Canada, Richard Wagner, he had kind of been playing the role.
00:00:58.660 But you really need a person permanently in that position, obviously.
00:01:02.520 And you particularly need a GG when you're going to dissolve Parliament.
00:01:05.820 And then later when it reconvenes, you appoint a new cabinet and so forth.
00:01:08.980 Those are all things that the Governor General is a part of.
00:01:11.560 There's one giveaway.
00:01:12.760 Another giveaway is, well, all the giveaways that we're seeing.
00:01:16.400 Justin Trudeau and cabinet ministers flying across the country and handing out cash to people.
00:01:20.980 Doing the pork barrel spending, catering to special interest groups.
00:01:24.940 Clearly a bit of vote buying going on right now.
00:01:27.240 That typically happens in advance of there being an election.
00:01:30.520 So there you have it.
00:01:31.300 Looks like we will have one.
00:01:33.140 And looks like it may follow some of the timing of 1974.
00:01:37.400 So what's that all about?
00:01:39.400 1968, Trudeau mania takes over Canada.
00:01:42.760 Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, he wins, gets a majority mandate.
00:01:46.720 1972, no Trudeau mania anymore.
00:01:49.360 In fact, he went to bed thinking he had lost.
00:01:52.080 And then there's a bit of a seat recount.
00:01:53.520 And no, he actually just scraped by, was with a minority government.
00:01:57.560 So majority term, then downgraded to a minority.
00:02:00.860 Sounds familiar?
00:02:01.880 That's just what happened to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
00:02:04.220 Sunnyways, he said.
00:02:05.320 He gets voted in, gets a staggering majority.
00:02:08.120 And then, well, he did not do very well in 2019.
00:02:10.880 Yes, he hung on with a minority.
00:02:12.540 But actually the Conservatives under Andrew Scheer, they got more of the popular vote.
00:02:17.080 They scored more votes from Canadians.
00:02:19.160 More Canadians voted for Conservative than they did Liberal.
00:02:22.080 But based on how it all breaks down in writings, Justin Trudeau, he did manage to hang on just by a little bit there.
00:02:28.960 By the way that the votes actually break down.
00:02:31.360 So we're in a minority situation.
00:02:33.920 1974, what happened to Pierre-Eli Trudeau?
00:02:37.520 Looks like he was only just getting started.
00:02:39.480 He didn't lose.
00:02:40.460 He actually won a majority again.
00:02:43.400 Went from minority to majority.
00:02:45.060 And, well, the rest is history.
00:02:46.520 He hung on as Prime Minister for another 10 years.
00:02:49.240 Aside from that little blip there in 1979 where Joe Clark was Prime Minister for just a little bit.
00:02:54.880 But if you look at all of that, you go, wow, Justin Trudeau.
00:02:58.320 I mean, he knows his father's history.
00:03:00.120 He's kind of hoping he can repeat it.
00:03:02.300 And kind of hoping that, is he about to lose with this minority government?
00:03:05.960 No, maybe Justin Trudeau is thinking he's just getting started.
00:03:11.120 Wow.
00:03:11.760 If you don't like Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, you're not going to like that prediction.
00:03:15.280 But it's what happened for the old man.
00:03:16.880 So maybe it's what can happen for his son.
00:03:18.860 And if you actually look at the polling numbers there, Aaron O'Toole, Conservative leader, really failing to inspire people right now.
00:03:25.040 Anything is possible.
00:03:26.520 Anything can happen.
00:03:27.920 There's been so many examples of times when the polls, just a couple months, just five weeks before Election Day, say one thing.
00:03:33.800 Come Election Day, it means something totally different.
00:03:36.480 So everything's still on the table.
00:03:38.440 But one thing that is also on the table is, yes, it could be 1974 all over again.