Juno News - Will there be a federal election this fall？

00:00:00.000 hey everyone welcome back to the Alberta roundup I'm your host Rachel Emanuel today we are joined

00:00:15.540 by the one and only Andrew Lawton whenever I run into you guys in public you always tell me

00:00:20.120 how much you love Andrew and how he's your favorite true north personality so I thought

00:00:24.820 I would stop boring you all with myself and finally give the people what they want welcome

00:00:29.020 to the show Andrew I don't believe anyone's ever said that to you but it's a kind introduction

00:00:32.640 anyway so I'll take it so I have a surprise for you guys that I hadn't announced yet I was actually

00:00:37.840 supposed to have Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on my show this week we were going to record that on

00:00:42.280 Friday that has been moved it's still happening it will just be next week instead because Andrew who

00:00:47.560 is coming to us live from the Canada Strong and Free Networking Conference which is still informally

00:00:53.080 known as the Manning Conference stole my interview with Alberta Premier Daniel Smith he will be

00:00:57.820 interviewing Premier Smith at the Manning Conference on Friday in my defense I didn't know

00:01:03.260 I was stealing Premier Danielle Smith from you I was just I they just told me where to go they told me

00:01:07.720 to go on a stage to moderate a fireside chat so with no intended efforts on my part to disrupt you

00:01:15.640 you'll be the one has the final word so that means that I'll just get it warmed up and then you'll be in

00:01:20.240 there with the real questions now this isn't the first time that this has happened but in Andrew's

00:01:24.860 defense I think I went on mat leave the last time so I guess it's not entirely his fault Andrew I'm sure

00:01:30.160 you don't want to give away your entire fireside chat with Danielle on Friday but what's a little

00:01:35.260 bit of a look ahead what are some of the things that you're hoping to ask the Premier about I think

00:01:38.860 certainly we'll be talking about parental rights I did an interview with her about this when she was

00:01:44.340 in Ontario actually a couple of months ago and I think there's a lot more on that and she's speaking

00:01:48.520 to a room full of people who are part of the Conservative movement in the country so my hope is that

00:01:52.860 she'll be able to be particularly candid compared to you know if she's on a CBC interview or something

00:01:58.120 like that not that she makes a habit of that so I also want to talk about some of the affordability

00:02:03.220 issues I mean obviously we know her position on the carbon tax and on federalism but she's actually

00:02:07.820 faced some criticism from the Canadian Taxpayers Federation for allowing the Alberta gas tax to go up and

00:02:14.740 I've never really heard her explain in too much detail how she rationalizes that inherent contradiction

00:02:21.840 so that'll be one thing I'd like to talk about as well and I also think in general when you're

00:02:27.500 speaking to a Premier in this particular point in time really that Ottawa province relationship what

00:02:33.420 is it what does it need to look like and what might a perhaps Conservative government do differently that

00:02:39.340 she would rather see and help that relationship because we see these criticisms from provinces not

00:02:44.160 just Alberta Saskatchewan New Brunswick even Ontario to some extent like the Federalist project right now

00:02:50.000 is broken. Now Andrew you obviously cover the federal government you cover the Federal Conservative

00:02:55.180 Party when we're talking about parental rights especially of course Alberta Premier Danielle Smith

00:02:59.280 has come out and said what she intends to do here in Alberta we've had some other provinces come out

00:03:03.480 do you think that there is one province that's really setting the tone and do you think the fact

00:03:07.560 that provinces have come out in such strong support of parents do you think that has impacted

00:03:12.440 Federal Conservative leader Pierre Polyev and his willingness to also come out

00:03:16.480 and stand up for parents whereas before he kind of just said it was up to the provinces to decide

00:03:21.660 what to do. I think it certainly made an effect I think New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs who I'm going to be

00:03:28.800 doing an interview with as well I think he really was the one that led the way on this in terms of established

00:03:35.100 political voices people in elected office moving on this issue but Danielle Smith when she took it on she actually went beyond

00:03:42.400 what happened in New Brunswick and beyond what happened in Saskatchewan so I think it added to

00:03:47.880 a current that already existed in Canadian politics which certainly made it easier for Pierre Polyev

00:03:52.740 who remember used to just say yeah this is a provincial matter and then a few weeks back he's coming out

00:03:57.740 and saying no biological men don't belong in female spaces so he clearly has evolved to become more

00:04:03.660 comfortable taking this on and I think it is really a reflection of Premiers such as Danielle Smith

00:04:09.620 providing a political base and proving there is a political base on these issues.

00:04:15.020 Based on your observations of covering the federal government of covering the federal conservative

00:04:18.680 party do you think there is one province that's really setting the tone for conservative policy

00:04:23.460 in the country right now and potentially could impact a future federal conservative government?

00:04:28.740 It's a tough question I mean in some ways I'd say New Brunswick does stand out because New Brunswick is not an

00:04:33.960 especially conservative place so when they're doing what I would call red meat conservative policies

00:04:39.160 the stakes are a lot higher than they are in Alberta which for the most part is a very

00:04:43.920 conservative province notwithstanding the orange aberration of a few years back but I think the

00:04:50.420 important thing is that if you can't do it in Alberta you can't do it anywhere and to go back to

00:04:55.640 the COVID era when the Alberta government under Jason Kenney went down the road of vaccine mandates

00:05:00.740 and vaccine passports that really killed the idea that anywhere in the country could really

00:05:06.300 reject those. So I think Alberta needs to be that line in the sand where we can get away with doing the 0.94

00:05:14.920 really big bold conservative things.

00:05:17.860 So I know the conference hasn't really begun people are trickling in right now and registering but I'm sure

00:05:22.140 there's some excitement on the ground right now. Something that I'm wondering is whether people are

00:05:26.180 talking about a federal election. I was watching an interview with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau recently on

00:05:31.820 CBC News actually and they were questioning him about a federal election. We know that the Prime Minister has been

00:05:37.300 jetting all across the country you know when he comes to Alberta he must have a good reason for it and he's been

00:05:42.740 making some big budget announcements. So do you see that as a sign that we could see a federal election this fall?

00:05:48.920 Yeah it's a good question. I think that the fact that conservatives really really want an election

00:05:53.040 means the Liberals don't have an incentive to call one. People on the right would love to go to the polls now.

00:05:58.900 I had on my show Jamil Javani the newly elected Conservative Member of Parliament who even though

00:06:03.860 he does want a by-election is saying that he wants to go back to the polls for a general election like

00:06:08.180 now because it's looking so great. So when the conservatives are posting like 10, 15, 20 point

00:06:14.560 leads depending on the poll over the Liberals I don't think the Liberals are in any hurry to go to an

00:06:19.860 election. I think maybe theoretically if something big happens this summer and the Liberals start to do

00:06:25.880 really well they might be motivated to pull the trigger but I'm kind of thinking at this point

00:06:30.640 it's going to be fall 2025 which is the scheduled election date. Another thing I have to ask you about

00:06:36.360 is the carbon tax. I know that there is going to be a panel on the carbon tax this weekend. Of course

00:06:41.580 we've had the AXA tax protest going on here in Calgary for over a week now. I know there's a couple

00:06:47.060 other locations where a remnant of protesters had stayed for now over a week to protest the carbon tax.

00:06:52.840 Now of course there's not too many people at these protests at least not during the week. We typically

00:06:56.240 see them swell on the weekends when more people are off work and can show up but do you think that

00:07:00.440 these protests are actually making an impact or is it really just too few people for people to be

00:07:04.340 talking about it in the news headlines and also just in discussions at the at the conference?

00:07:09.740 Well people are certainly talking about it. I mean I'm right now across the hallway from the Canada

00:07:14.620 the Canadian Taxpayers Federation booth and they've certainly been sounding the alarm about this. I know

00:07:19.700 you've been doing tremendous coverage of people in the west that weren't just content to have a one

00:07:24.000 day protest that have kept this on now for approaching two weeks. So I think people are

00:07:28.360 talking about it. I think the carbon tax is one piece of a broader affordability question where

00:07:34.100 you know even if the carbon tax were to disappear overnight it doesn't make inflation go away. It

00:07:38.040 doesn't make government debt go away. It doesn't make all of these things go away. The issue is not

00:07:42.300 that it's a panacea to get rid of the carbon tax. The issue is that it's government deliberately

00:07:47.040 aggravating a lot of people in this country who are already struggling and I think in that sense

00:07:51.740 it's become a very meaningful political issue for people. So I know federal conservative leader

00:07:56.640 Pierre Polyev is slated to speak at the conference. He also spoke last year. There's been other times

00:08:01.160 where we haven't seen a federal conservative leader attend the conference but this year there's a pretty

00:08:05.360 good lineup. Do you think that with Pierre speaking and some of the other big conservative names they

00:08:09.740 have like Danielle Smith, do you think that the Manning Conference is really setting itself apart as the

00:08:14.240 place to be to discuss conservative policy in the country? So I actually believe that Prime Minister Stephen

00:08:21.060 Harper when he was the Prime Minister never spoke at one of these and that was when you'd assume he would

00:08:26.580 want to but it just didn't happen. It didn't have the relevance of say CPAC in the U.S. on these sorts of

00:08:32.920 things. So I think there's been a change. I think the movement in the right in Canada has evolved a lot in the

00:08:38.420 last few years in particular. I see we see the proliferation of independent media. We see the COVID

00:08:44.300 era and how that has really caused there to be this expansion, this swelling of the conservative

00:08:48.960 base. And then you have a guy like Pierre Polyev who has really come up age in the development of the

00:08:53.580 conservative movement. He was on Preston Manning's riding board when he was 14. The Canada Strong and

00:08:58.580 Free Network used to be the Manning Centre. I think he has a guy who was there when the right was uniting,

00:09:03.880 the reform and then the alliance uniting with the PCs to birth the Conservative Party of Canada. So I

00:09:09.160 think the fact that he's here is that he's reflecting that he is a movement conservative. He's not one of

00:09:13.700 these guys that's from the red Tory tradition or a social conservative background. He's really coming

00:09:19.540 from that grassroots Western-led conservative movement and I think he has a soft spot for the

00:09:25.840 organization and the people here. And Andrew, I have to ask, which panel are you most looking forward to?

00:09:30.900 Well, I've got to be my own if I just do that. But no, no, no, I wouldn't say my own. I'm actually

00:09:35.220 interested in Tony Abbott, who's the former Prime Minister of Australia, and he's actually going to

00:09:40.040 be a guest on my show as well. But he was a very fascinating figure in Australia. Again, he was a

00:09:45.920 very hard-line conservative in a country that isn't inherently conservative. And I think there might be

00:09:50.480 some perhaps lessons he can bring to Canadians on the right from his experiences in Australia.

00:09:55.860 And finally, just before I let you go, I'm wondering where are viewers who are interested

00:10:00.260 and following your content can find that this weekend.

00:10:03.940 We are live every day on the Andrew Lawton Show at True North at 11 a.m. Mountain Time,

00:10:09.300 and we'll have some other interviews coming out over the course of the weekend and also next week.

00:10:13.920 Okay, Andrew, thank you so much for joining the show. For the rest of you, I'll be back on Saturday

00:10:18.320 with my regular episode and, of course, with some coverage of the Canada Strong and Free Networking

00:10:23.320 Conference, including what Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Andrew Lawton talked about on Friday.

00:10:28.260 I will see you guys on Saturday. I hope that you have a great rest of your week, and God bless.

Juno News - April 10, 2024

Will there be a federal election this fall？

Episode Stats

Summary

Transcript