kinsellacast - KINSELLACAST 334： Why Kamala will win (I hope and pray) - with Lilley, Mraz, Kheiriddin, Belanger plus Chemical Brothers, Joyce Manor, Band of Bastards and more!

00:00:00.000 It's the KinsellaCast starring Warren Kinsella.

00:00:21.260 Hey, it's Warren. Welcome to the KinsellaCast.

00:00:24.160 In what is going to be an extraordinary week, I think, for humankind.

00:00:34.360 I think you guys know my bias.

00:00:36.580 I've worked for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris.

00:00:40.940 So I really, really, really want her to win.

00:00:44.720 I think she will, for reasons I will shortly describe.

00:00:48.740 But I could be wrong.

00:00:49.680 I thought Hillary was going to win in 2016. 0.99

00:00:52.780 So we'll see.

00:00:54.520 To discuss all of that, because I really don't think there's any more event that will be as consequential as that.

00:01:02.200 I'm talking to Brian Lilly and John Mraz about that as it relates to Israel and Ukraine and Canada and Sanity.

00:01:12.280 So we're talking about that.

00:01:13.880 And then, of course, we'll be talking about other stuff with Tasha Carradine, Carl Belanger, and some great music.

00:01:20.840 I've got the Chemical Brothers.

00:01:22.000 Yes, I've got the Chemical Brothers.

00:01:23.940 I'm not all punk rock all the time.

00:01:27.780 Joyce Manor, which is punk rock.

00:01:29.500 Beach Community, Urethane, who did some stuff recently with Jim Lindbergh from Pennywise, which was awesome. 0.82

00:01:38.120 Band of Bastards with lack of love.

00:01:40.220 And so punky, but good stuff. 0.99

00:01:45.960 Campaigns matter.

00:01:47.460 That is the old political truism.

00:01:50.500 Anyway, for a long time, politicos have believed that.

00:01:54.020 To them, you know, it's like hockey.

00:01:55.640 The regular season doesn't matter.

00:01:58.140 Only the playoffs matter.

00:01:59.420 So you can be a bum in the regular season.

00:02:02.520 But if you can get your act together in the playoffs, you might end up hoisting the cup over your shoulders.

00:02:07.220 Anyway, that's the old political chestnut.

00:02:09.580 But it sure hasn't been true in the 2024 U.S. presidential race.

00:02:14.980 The Democrats, Kamala Harris, and again, I'm biased, but I think she's run an excellent campaign. 0.92

00:02:21.160 She entered the race late.

00:02:23.400 She hasn't made any big mistakes.

00:02:24.900 Joan Biden's made a couple whoppers.

00:02:26.920 But she's raised more money, like a billion dollars, in a very short period of time.

00:02:32.920 It's the biggest fundraising haul in the history of the United States of America.

00:02:37.840 History of the world, I think.

00:02:39.700 Republicans, meanwhile, have made lots of mistakes. 0.99

00:02:43.220 Childless cat ladies, island of garbage, people eating dogs and cats. 1.00

00:02:47.440 Check out the new Atlantic. 0.82

00:02:49.100 They've got a whopper of a story that just came out on the weekend.

00:02:52.660 And their candidate, Donald Trump, hasn't had a great time of it either.

00:02:57.980 Convicted felon, adjudicated sexual offender, twice impeached president, serial denier of election results that have been certified by the courts, by Congress, by his former vice president.

00:03:10.240 And quite a few of the people who worked for him from 2016 to 2020, they're voting for Harris.

00:03:17.520 But you know what?

00:03:20.080 It hasn't mattered.

00:03:21.980 They're tied.

00:03:23.740 Trump isn't just competitive against Harris.

00:03:26.480 He's very competitive.

00:03:28.040 Even though the vice president has run a solid campaign, and even though Trump has had a less than stellar campaign, it hasn't changed much.

00:03:36.560 The race has been tighter than a tick.

00:03:38.520 And I still think Harris is going to win, however.

00:03:43.980 The Canadian fans, and there's not a ton of them, but they exist, of Trump, just put down your pitchforks, your torches, just hear me out.

00:03:52.920 There's one reason why Trump is going to lose and Harris is going to win.

00:03:56.640 And she's not going to win by a landslide, but by enough to eke out a win in the Electoral College, likely after several days of fighting and court challenges. 0.95

00:04:08.800 It's GOTV, get out the vote.

00:04:11.920 Getting out the vote is always important, but in a race with a bigger margin, maybe not as much.

00:04:19.420 But in a tight race like this one, it's critical.

00:04:22.320 And believe me when I say that Kamala Harris has got a GOTV organization that is going to crush Trump's. 0.99

00:04:30.660 It's already doing so.

00:04:32.080 Like, look at North Carolina, for example.

00:04:34.100 Okay?

00:04:34.720 Hit by Hurricane Helene a few weeks ago.

00:04:39.200 Many people killed.

00:04:40.740 Many people lost everything.

00:04:42.600 Democrats have only won there once in the past quarter century, and only barely Barack Obama in 2008.

00:04:50.040 Despite that, the Harris Democrats have been everywhere in North Carolina in 2024, delivering supplies for relief efforts,

00:04:58.780 ferrying in water and batteries and toiletries, doing wellness checks on residents, running helplines for victims, knocking on tens of thousands of doors.

00:05:08.560 How could Team Harris do all of that?

00:05:11.260 Because they've got a huge get-out-the-vote team.

00:05:14.320 And they've got more money than God.

00:05:16.540 But Trump's team simply have not been able to compete at that level financially or organizationally.

00:05:24.180 Other signs of their dominance?

00:05:26.700 As early as July, Harris had nearly 300 field offices in every swing state.

00:05:32.660 There's seven of them.

00:05:33.980 And with thousands of paid staffers and volunteers.

00:05:37.060 Now she's got 350 offices. 1.00

00:05:38.540 And as much as a month ago, that Democratic army had knocked on hundreds of thousands of doors and made millions of phone calls.

00:05:46.900 In swing state Wisconsin, okay, alone, her direct voter contacts number in the millions, with a big focus on first-time voters.

00:05:57.040 Volunteers, which she has in abundance, are highly motivated to get out the vote.

00:06:01.280 Trump, however, has been forced to hire paid mercenaries who simply do not have the get-out-the-vote experience or the passion to win.

00:06:11.560 And Republicans themselves admit they're being beaten badly on get-out-the-vote.

00:06:15.400 And the Elon Musk thing, you know, that he's pumped $70 million into, it's a joke.

00:06:21.180 His canvassers took advantage of him.

00:06:24.160 Democrats are working with groups like Indivisible, which specializes in micro-targeting voters.

00:06:29.920 They mobilize them where they live with the help of the people who live there, too.

00:06:33.520 And their innovation is called neighbor-to-neighbor.

00:06:35.720 And it's far and above anything the GOP has.

00:06:38.840 It's an approach that works because nothing motivates voters better than neighbors talking to neighbors.

00:06:44.860 Now, could I be wrong?

00:06:46.340 Of course I could be wrong.

00:06:48.180 You know, I thought that Hillary Clinton was going to win in 2016.

00:06:51.880 She did not.

00:06:53.360 But this time, I think the difference is going to be get-out-the-vote.

00:06:57.860 Because she's got a superior team to his, and in a tight race, that matters.

00:07:03.840 Welcome to the KinsellaCast.

00:07:06.080 KinsellaCast.

00:07:14.620 KinsellaCast.

00:07:15.660 KinsellaCast.

00:07:16.300 Fable 2.

00:07:16.660 KinsellaCast.

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00:07:34.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:08:04.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:08:24.100 Lifting me higher

00:08:39.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:08:46.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:08:53.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:09:00.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:09:05.100 Lifting me higher

00:09:20.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:09:24.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:09:31.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:09:41.100 Your love keeps lifting me

00:09:46.100 Lifting me higher

00:09:49.100 Lifting me higher

00:09:53.100 Lifting me higher

00:09:56.100 No one looks casting At Stan

00:10:02.400 No one seems casting At Stan

00:10:13.940 We're all all 50

00:10:39.600 Thank you.

00:11:09.600 Thank you.

00:11:39.600 Thank you.

00:12:09.600 And we're back, and we're back with John Mraz.

00:12:11.920 And John, this is a fateful and historic, and use whatever description you want to apply to it.

00:12:19.280 This is going to be quite a week.

00:12:21.840 We've got a U.S. presidential campaign, which I think everybody can agree, on the left or the right, is very consequential.

00:12:31.680 There's all kinds of implications.

00:12:33.880 And I wanted to talk to you about that.

00:12:35.800 So, if Kamala Harris wins, I think we can all agree that it's going to be more or less how things have been under Joe Biden.

00:12:45.640 And if Donald Trump wins, what does it mean for Ukraine, which is a subject you know a lot about?

00:12:54.300 What does it mean for Ukraine?

00:12:55.320 I don't know.

00:12:57.640 I suspect, first of all, that both of them are going to declare victory on Tuesday.

00:13:04.360 And so I don't think we'll know who won until the courts sort it out.

00:13:10.680 But I vacillate between thinking we're in between the middle of the rapture and just another day of Trump madness.

00:13:17.260 When it comes to Trump, what he says, I mean, he's actually been telling people using his proxies and sort of said it himself.

00:13:26.060 You can't take everything I say seriously.

00:13:28.520 Some of it's just jokes.

00:13:30.180 I don't know what to take seriously.

00:13:31.580 I do know he believes that the loss of life in Ukraine has been tragic.

00:13:36.300 It's the only thing he's ever said about it that made sense to me has been over 400,000 now dead, at very least, on both sides in Ukraine.

00:13:43.940 What a terrible, needless loss of life.

00:13:47.620 The question is whether he can force Ukraine to stop fighting, which is what he'd like to do. 0.97

00:13:52.420 He doesn't give a shit about what they've lost in territory or life or dignity or independence or the promise of a dream of independence from, you know, a Soviet. 0.96

00:14:00.540 I use that word deliberately, you know, republic to their north. 0.98

00:14:03.460 I don't know if he can force them to stop, even if he wanted to.

00:14:07.720 But let's say he could get them to the table. 0.99

00:14:11.040 The only way he does that is by cutting off their weapons supply and telling anybody else who's in NATO that they can't give them weapons either or they'll be shit. 0.99

00:14:18.640 There'll be a price to pay. 0.98

00:14:20.280 So I don't know what his first priority is.

00:14:23.000 Maybe it's to get big pharma off of CNN using RFK, you know, who dismembered a bear in Central Park. 1.00

00:14:29.780 And you can't make this shit up. 0.98

00:14:31.180 So I'm hoping, I'm hoping, of course, that Ukraine is allowed to continue to fight for its own independence, its sovereignty and its future. 0.99

00:14:39.940 But I have no idea what Trump would do in that very thick soup.

00:14:44.720 An honest but thoughtful answer.

00:14:46.560 Okay.

00:14:46.880 This week, Trump, as he's done before, raged against allies and praised the enemies of democracy and the enemies of the West.

00:14:59.940 I think that that is a telling and cautionary tale for my Jewish friends.

00:15:06.980 You've got lots of Jewish friends and family, too.

00:15:09.980 What do you think a Trump victory means for Israel?

00:15:13.400 Does it give Netanyahu a license to do whatever the hell he wants with Iran?

00:15:18.740 Or do things not really change?

00:15:21.120 Again, it's very clear the United States has been backchanneling for or to Iran, pardon me, on behalf of Israel or maybe not on behalf of Israel.

00:15:31.780 But certainly the U.S. State Department have their hand in that thick mix.

00:15:37.840 You know, Netanyahu and Netanyahu's Israelis, his bloc in Israel, certainly seem to support Trump and think he's better for them in allowing them to continue unmolested in their fight.

00:15:48.980 To the north was Hezbollah, with Syria, with Yemen, and, of course, with Iran. 0.77

00:15:55.860 But there was Trump last week.

00:15:58.420 And here you go.

00:15:59.020 You never know with Foucault Spaniel. 0.86

00:16:00.600 I mean, yesterday he called Tim Waltz retarded.

00:16:02.980 And I always think he's talking about himself when he speaks. 0.81

00:16:05.600 I mean, there he was with two leaders of the Muslim community, serious leaders of the Muslim community who are very much, quote, unquote, pro-Palestine at his rally, talking about his wonderful Muslim friends.

00:16:18.980 I have no idea what this guy believes in. 0.98

00:16:21.280 I mean, I suspect if he wanted to, you know, if he could promise that he'd try to play Abraham and give us all the heads of our penises back. 0.91

00:16:28.460 So I think, you know, Taylor Swift, I like to quote Taylor Swift. 0.95

00:16:32.760 You know, I've seen this show before.

00:16:36.700 I didn't like the end of this movie, something like that.

00:16:39.680 Trump is so inconsistent in his policies.

00:16:45.340 But what he has promised on both fronts, pardon the pun, is that he will end the wars in both regions.

00:16:52.460 I don't know what that looks like for Israel, but it's probably much more of a hawkish response or plan going forward and one much more supportive of Israel than perhaps Harris-Waltz coalition might bring to the table.

00:17:04.800 Well, it's interesting.

00:17:06.260 You raised the R word that he applied to Walls.

00:17:10.060 There is an excellent piece just out.

00:17:12.840 I was going to send it to you before we spoke, but I was in the middle of it.

00:17:16.820 Excellent piece in the Atlantic, kind of behind the curtains in the Trump campaign.

00:17:22.340 And it's even more chaotic and acrimonious and crazy than you'd think. 0.72

00:17:30.040 And apparently he was planning on publicly calling Joe Biden retarded, quote unquote. 0.79

00:17:37.560 And it was prevailed upon not to do that by his campaign managers who are presently sane people.

00:17:44.700 But now it's spilled out into the open.

00:17:48.120 So like you say, you can't really predict what Donald Trump's going to do.

00:17:52.200 However, maybe we can spend a few more minutes on this one.

00:17:55.700 So we've talked about Israel.

00:17:57.520 We've talked about Ukraine and what a Trump victory means to those.

00:18:03.020 What about Canada? 0.99

00:18:04.480 My thesis has been for some time, as I think you know, that Trudeau is not totally stupid. 0.98

00:18:11.620 He can read a poll like the next guy knows that he's in big trouble. 0.91

00:18:15.500 I believe that he's waiting to see what the outcome is of the presidential.

00:18:19.380 And he believes that he has a chance or his party has a chance if Trump gets reelected or elected for the second time.

00:18:27.600 What do you think?

00:18:30.180 I think Justin Trudeau should be wary.

00:18:33.340 Whether he can, first of all, whether he can read a poll or not is still highly up for debate.

00:18:38.280 Because the only poll that seems to matter is the conversation that he has with his own audience, his ego.

00:18:44.220 So Justin Trudeau is watching.

00:18:47.620 Maybe he's hopeful of a Harris-Waltz ascendancy and a resurgence of back to the center or even the left in the United States, of progressive politics, of sunny ways, of hopeful stuff.

00:18:57.680 Or maybe he's hopeful that Trump wins and Canadians will revile that result and associate Pierre Paulyevna with sort of Trumpism and populism and easy answers to complicated questions informed by no facts.

00:19:10.740 So maybe he thinks that he gets, you know, a good gut response, a gut check by Canadians who sort of will say to themselves, well, we can't have two Trumps on the continent.

00:19:20.760 We're Canada.

00:19:21.860 We're compassionate.

00:19:22.960 We care about people.

00:19:24.160 I would love to believe that about Canadians.

00:19:27.040 I suspect Trudeau might not get what he's wishing for.

00:19:32.020 You got to be careful what you wish for because there might be a very large chunk of Canadians who say we need a radical change in Canada as well.

00:19:39.380 And Trudeau is certainly not going to bring it to the table.

00:19:41.220 And Pierre Paulyevna is talking like he might go after our deep state if there is such a thing, our cold state.

00:19:49.880 So whatever is going on in the mind of Justin Trudeau, his hair looks great. 0.99

00:19:54.160 And I don't think as I walk around the streets of Toronto and Canada that anybody talks about him, gives a shit. 0.98

00:19:59.900 They've got a, they've done a gut check on him and they don't like the cut of his jib. 0.98

00:20:05.000 I'm not sure they like the cut of Pierre Paulyevna's jib either, but they might let it luff on the front of the boat for a while.

00:20:11.380 Pardon the belabored pun.

00:20:13.360 Governments defeat themselves.

00:20:14.640 No, you're absolutely right.

00:20:15.620 All right, well then let's, I guess we don't know what's going to happen in the United States, as you pointed out, very honestly, in answer to my question.

00:20:25.480 So, and it's going to take a number of days for it to get settled.

00:20:29.080 I think you and I are agreed on that.

00:20:31.680 What, I'm going to put your feet to the fire here, is our final question for this week on the Kinsella cast.

00:20:38.540 What do you think Justin Trudeau is going to do?

00:20:44.040 Whether she wins, whether he wins, the next few days, you know, it looks like we're heading to another confrontation in the House of Commons.

00:20:52.720 The Bloc has said they are going to vote against the government.

00:20:56.340 The Tories obviously are going to do that.

00:20:58.640 The NDP looks like they're chickening out again.

00:21:01.500 But what do you think Trudeau is going to do?

00:21:03.880 Should he, like the clash stay?

00:21:06.480 Should he stay or should he go?

00:21:08.540 Anger can be power if you know that you can use it.

00:21:14.280 I think he is going to try and wrap his red cloak around Harris if she wins and maybe go to the polls on a surgency of hope.

00:21:22.740 I think he's certainly going to think about that.

00:21:25.020 I mean, I think the NDP, by the way, are irrelevant and irrelevant and spent force right now.

00:21:28.980 Their leadership is rudderless.

00:21:30.520 They don't have any money in the bank.

00:21:32.000 Nope, I don't think they care about their pensions.

00:21:33.720 I think they care about even surviving as a party.

00:21:36.180 But if Trump wins, and didn't Trump in the last couple of weeks make a – so he took a drive-by shooting on Trudeau and said, you know, if he came across the border, he'd have him arrested or worse.

00:21:46.800 He said something like that.

00:21:48.200 He did.

00:21:48.880 It's hard to keep up with Trumpisms every morning.

00:21:51.240 It's half an hour of my absurd day.

00:21:52.760 So I think he would be terribly worried, first of all, if Trump came to power, because one of Trump's big issues, and he's been consistent on it, and weirdly right, is that members of NATO should be spending the money and the commitment to NATO, or America's getting out of NATO and certainly not going to subsidize Canada and Western Europe anymore.

00:22:14.340 I think he would be terrified of a Trump win, but also might take the opportunity to secure another win if Trump does some of the crazy, crazy, absurd – I can't even believe he says them out loud – things that he says he's going to do, whether that's hypothetically assassinating Liz Cheney or building a wall or deporting two million people who just wanted a better life somewhere and are being treated like criminals because the world treated them poorly.

00:22:39.040 Pardon the pun.

00:22:40.500 So I don't know what's going on through the head of Justin Trudeau.

00:22:44.080 Maybe he's out surfing in Long Beach.

00:22:45.640 It's hard to tell.

00:22:47.160 But I know Pierre Pellet has also been cautious, I know, not to get too close to Trump.

00:22:53.300 I think he smells correctly that even right-wing Canadians are not that excited about the man, and I've got to say, actually said this week, look at this beautiful white skin.

00:23:02.500 I have the most beautiful white skin.

00:23:04.380 My white skin is beautiful. 1.00

00:23:05.620 Dude, last night he simulated giving a blowjob to a microphone. 1.00

00:23:12.300 I know. 0.99

00:23:12.920 Well, I thought it was great that he came out of the closet.

00:23:15.020 I mean, he's been on the low one.

00:23:17.460 Yeah, I encourage that sort of thing.

00:23:18.940 You can't make this up. 0.99

00:23:21.460 It's just fucking unbelievable. 0.96

00:23:23.620 Anyway, thank you, my friend, for your analysis.

00:23:28.020 You were excellent and prescient, and I guess we'll see what happens in the days to come.

00:23:34.500 John Mraz, thank you.

00:23:36.840 I go, I go.

00:23:37.520 I lost it all in a beach community where it was lost.

00:23:54.880 It's not all that clear to me.

00:23:56.460 Over the sidewalk into a slow talk, call the police.

00:24:00.500 Tell me I'm in the wrong town.

00:24:02.820 Wait for your shoe, cause my scene, it ain't over.

00:24:15.920 I torch up your house while your kids are at home.

00:24:18.940 What can you do when you're not getting sober?

00:24:21.920 It's hard to admit, but you're always feeling alone.

00:24:24.820 You're always feeling alone.

00:24:26.820 You're always feeling alone.

00:24:30.820 You're always just a few miles down.

00:24:37.820 As the streets count backwards, I realize it's true.

00:24:44.820 Everything reminds me of you.

00:24:47.920 I feel my house down.

00:24:50.300 As the streets count backwards, I realize it's true.

00:24:56.820 Everything reminds me of you.

00:25:00.280 Everything reminds me of you.

00:25:02.280 Everything reminds me of you.

00:25:06.280 Everything reminds me of you.

00:25:15.280 And we're back.

00:25:17.400 And Brian, like the presidential campaign, year 2024 AD, we've seen stuff.

00:25:27.780 We've seen stuff we thought we'd never see before.

00:25:31.060 You've been pretty consistent for months.

00:25:33.300 You weren't wild about either Trump or Biden.

00:25:35.960 You haven't been wild about Harris or Trump.

00:25:42.300 Let's say Harris wins.

00:25:45.360 What does it mean for Canada and the world?

00:25:47.900 And then we can talk about if Trump wins, what it means for Canada and the world.

00:25:52.340 So Harris first.

00:25:54.720 And my read of the polls and everything else would say Trump's more likely to win.

00:25:59.980 But you make a good case in your latest column for The Sun on how Harris might win.

00:26:05.960 With a superior get-out-the-vote campaign.

00:26:10.560 Polling, betting markets, all of that is leaning towards Trump.

00:26:13.480 But we all know that get-out-the-vote is incredibly important.

00:26:20.660 And she does seem to have an edge there.

00:26:23.160 Is it enough?

00:26:24.140 We'll see.

00:26:24.700 If she pulls it off.

00:26:27.440 I mean, what it means for the rest of the world, I'm not overly vexed by.

00:26:33.200 I know a lot of people are concerned about what it means globally.

00:26:38.180 I think Barry Weiss summed it up at a lunch you and I were at where she was speaking a month or so ago.

00:26:44.100 And she said, we've got one presidential candidate that doesn't want Israel to win.

00:26:48.740 That'd be Harris.

00:26:49.520 And another one that doesn't want Ukraine to win.

00:26:51.540 That'd be Trump.

00:26:52.200 That would be my one big concern internationally.

00:26:58.180 Other than that, I think there are strong institutions out there.

00:27:02.180 But on Canada, with trade, I...

00:27:05.700 What do you think?

00:27:06.600 Is she going to keep free trade with Canada?

00:27:09.240 I mean, the Republicans and the Democrats, as you pointed out on this program for two years,

00:27:14.940 is both of them are protectionists.

00:27:17.220 Both American mainstream parties are protectionists.

00:27:20.480 Will she...

00:27:21.580 Well, so we'll keep it in name.

00:27:24.060 I don't see her saying, oh, well, we're going to rip up NAFTA or KUSMA or whatever it's called now.

00:27:31.720 I don't see that happening at all.

00:27:33.780 But I would expect more protectionist measures.

00:27:39.400 And you look at things like the Inflation Reduction Act.

00:27:42.600 A lot of protectionist measures in there.

00:27:45.300 Every presidential candidate has increased things like buy America provisions on public transit.

00:27:51.560 That's why the rolling stock division, it used to be Bombardier.

00:27:55.460 Now it's Alstom up in Thunder Bay.

00:27:57.720 That's why they've had to shift some production.

00:27:59.540 So they build the exterior of the cars up there and then shift them down to the states.

00:28:03.260 And they do all the installation of the interior fit-ups.

00:28:07.000 You know, that's hurt jobs here. 0.98

00:28:08.760 Every president over the last several have increased, whether it's on roads or transit or different projects,

00:28:16.480 the buy America provisions, which, in my view, violate the free trade agreement.

00:28:22.040 But the Inflation Reduction Act, one of the big things that Harris pushed forward and that Biden supported

00:28:29.260 was his second attempt to get rid of the Canadian auto industry.

00:28:34.120 So that's my big worry with Harris.

00:28:37.680 The whole subsidies for the electric vehicles that they put in, where it would have to be made in America,

00:28:44.580 50% American parts, an American-made battery, and assembled at an American factory.

00:28:51.160 That was something that she pushed for a lot.

00:28:55.040 And it was only defeated, funny enough, because three Democrat senators, two from Georgia, one from West Virginia,

00:29:00.420 had auto shops in their states that were non-unionized.

00:29:06.120 So that would have hurt them.

00:29:07.580 That's the only reason that part of the Inflation Reduction Act ended up failing.

00:29:12.080 But what's she going to try next?

00:29:14.400 She is very protectionist. 0.96

00:29:16.520 And, you know, Canada doesn't have friends in Washington these days, hasn't for a long time.

00:29:23.060 Doesn't matter if it's Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.

00:29:25.460 We don't matter anymore.

00:29:28.640 And so does the president start initiating more protectionist measures?

00:29:35.680 And then what comes out of Congress?

00:29:37.000 Because back in the days of Bill Clinton or George Bush, either one, or Ronald Reagan,

00:29:44.600 the protectionism mostly came out of Congress, and it would be a phone call from the prime minister

00:29:49.520 to the president to try and work it out and tamp things down when they could.

00:29:53.580 That doesn't exist anymore.

00:29:55.840 Trudeau has no relationship in Washington.

00:29:59.380 So let's talk about that.

00:30:01.020 You've given an excellent summary of the policy implications of President Harris.

00:30:07.800 What about the political?

00:30:09.360 John Mraz flew a theory past me earlier today saying, you know, he can see it being good

00:30:15.880 for Trudeau as well.

00:30:17.820 He wraps himself in the warm, comfy blanket of international progressivism.

00:30:24.060 And, you know, look, she's one.

00:30:25.960 And that's why you need to keep the same tradition going up here.

00:30:28.740 What do you think about that?

00:30:29.600 What does it do for Justin?

00:30:31.880 Nothing, because nothing works for Justin Trudeau anymore.

00:30:35.680 People are past him.

00:30:37.160 His own party's past him.

00:30:41.180 There's very little enthusiasm for him.

00:30:43.540 I'm on his own caucus.

00:30:44.600 I know he survived that coup attempt, but there's just very little enthusiasm.

00:30:49.340 And when I talk to liberals, what I hear is frustration.

00:30:54.200 Because they say, well, we could be doing things, but we're not.

00:30:57.660 And, you know, so does Harris, who, by the way, is the least popular Democrat candidate

00:31:05.460 in Canada that we've seen in a while, because every presidential election, some polling company

00:31:10.460 goes out there and says, who would you vote for?

00:31:12.980 Harris would still win, but not by nearly as much as before.

00:31:16.180 So, yeah, I don't think that would help.

00:31:19.440 But, you know, Trump winning, you and I have discussed that before.

00:31:22.940 Let's pivot to that.

00:31:24.220 So Trump wins.

00:31:25.520 What does he do before we get to the policy piece?

00:31:28.420 What does Trump do for Trudeau?

00:31:29.760 So my theory, and I'm alone on this, as usual, is that it gives something, puts a spring in 0.58

00:31:36.160 the step of Trudeau, because he can say, hey, look at this mean, nasty guy in the Oval 0.81

00:31:40.560 Office. 0.80

00:31:41.240 Well, you don't want to have a mean, nasty guy in 24 Sussex or wherever the office is

00:31:46.240 these days.

00:31:47.160 What do you think about that?

00:31:47.920 Um, yeah, I think it could help him win, scare a few voters off and win a few points

00:31:55.420 back, but not enough to overtake Polyev and the Conservatives and where they're at.

00:32:00.840 Agreed.

00:32:01.480 They'd need more than that.

00:32:03.480 We're talking small, single digits, in my view, if he's able to get that much.

00:32:10.680 Polling, interestingly enough, shows that Canadians think Polyev would do a better job of dealing

00:32:15.900 with Donald Trump.

00:32:16.600 So, you know, that may not even work.

00:32:19.840 It may backfire.

00:32:21.180 They've spent more than a year trying to compare Polyev to Trump, including this past week.

00:32:26.940 They're using all the same rhetoric.

00:32:28.680 Adam Van Kayak calling Pierre Polyev a, an existential threat to Canadian democracy.

00:32:36.900 Did you just rip the talking points straight out of the New York Times?

00:32:42.940 Oh, by the way, you're a leader.

00:32:45.440 Same slogan.

00:32:45.580 Yeah, it's the exact same slogan.

00:32:48.640 That hasn't worked.

00:32:49.900 So, yeah, I don't see it there.

00:32:52.280 And just a quick aside, maybe we'll talk Canadian politics in a minute.

00:32:55.700 But, you know, you're saying Polyev's an existential threat to Canadian democracy while Parliament's 0.98

00:33:01.320 been shut down for a month because you refused to release papers to Parliament and the Speaker

00:33:06.600 over a spending scandal that the Auditor General raked you over the coals over?

00:33:13.320 Who's the real threat to democracy here?

00:33:15.440 Give me a break.

00:33:16.140 Okay, so what about Trump on the policy front?

00:33:19.900 And it doesn't have to just be Canada.

00:33:21.860 My view is it's bad news for Ukraine.

00:33:24.800 It's bad news for Taiwan.

00:33:26.000 I'm not clear on Israel.

00:33:28.240 Israel, potentially bad news for trade, for stability internationally.

00:33:34.400 Am I right?

00:33:35.120 Am I wrong?

00:33:35.660 What do you think?

00:33:36.140 Um, on Israel, I think it would actually help because the Biden administration has been

00:33:43.100 going in and telling Israel, look, we don't want you to lose this war.

00:33:47.580 We just don't want you to win it.

00:33:49.400 They've been telling Netanyahu, you know, not to attack Iran when Iran attacks Israel directly

00:33:58.180 and through proxies.

00:33:59.340 They've, uh, they told them don't go into Rafa.

00:34:03.040 Well, where was Senwar?

00:34:04.640 Where were a bunch of the hostages?

00:34:06.540 Uh, where were the tunnels that kept restocking the weapons and everything else that Hamas 0.94

00:34:12.720 needed?

00:34:13.080 They were in Rafa.

00:34:14.660 So I don't think that, uh, the, that Trump would be telling Netanyahu, yeah, hold back.

00:34:22.020 I think he'd say, okay, do what you have to do to finish them off and make it quick.

00:34:25.720 Um, Ukraine, obviously some worries.

00:34:28.440 Um, I don't have a good sense on China, so I just, I'll, I'll skip that one.

00:34:34.140 I think, I think Trump would be fine for Israel, uh, bad for Ukraine, kind of the flip of,

00:34:40.820 of, uh, of, uh, of Harris.

00:34:43.260 Um, I think she'd be fine for Ukraine, bad for, bad for Israel. 0.98

00:34:47.420 What about economically with Canada?

00:34:49.780 As you pointed out, nobody picks up the phone to hear from us anymore.

00:34:54.300 Certainly not from Justin Trudeau.

00:34:56.000 Uh, Trump has been very critical during this presidential campaign of Justin Trudeau.

00:35:01.160 I don't think it portends well for the future.

00:35:03.800 What do you think?

00:35:05.460 And of course he's been critical.

00:35:07.000 He knows that Trudeau has been running ads and campaigning against them for more than a

00:35:11.840 year.

00:35:12.160 And I said that back when, uh, Trudeau started doing this a year or so ago. 0.99

00:35:17.100 This is a really dumb policy. 0.97

00:35:19.360 Trump could win and then we're in trouble. 0.98

00:35:23.120 Um, you know, I, I don't think he wants to rip up, uh, free trade, um, on, you know,

00:35:32.480 if, if you look at the steel and aluminum tariffs, like, I think we only become, uh, victims of

00:35:39.260 tariffs, if we do something stupid and the steel and aluminum tariffs that he put in, 0.94

00:35:44.200 in 2017 or 2018, I forget the exact year. 0.97

00:35:48.420 Um, his trade representative had warned Canada for a year, stopped letting Chinese steel come

00:35:54.580 in.

00:35:54.820 And in, it was the same morning in Mexico, uh, what was happening was the steel and aluminum

00:35:59.460 were coming in and it was being polished.

00:36:03.000 It was coming in from China, getting polished once and shipped down to the States as Canadian 1.00

00:36:06.580 or American or, uh, Canadian or Mexican steel and aluminum.

00:36:10.540 And they told them for a year, stop this.

00:36:14.060 And they didn't.

00:36:15.520 And Bill Morneau didn't respond until the day after the tariffs were put in.

00:36:19.240 And then we had six months of hurt for our workers because we didn't want to piss off

00:36:23.620 China. 1.00

00:36:25.100 So I'm worried about us doing something stupid like that. 0.99

00:36:27.660 Like, you know, uh, Trump is, has said on Chinese made EVs that, uh, he would consider 0.99

00:36:35.120 an even bigger tariff than what Biden's talked about.

00:36:37.440 And I think Biden's tariff policy on Chinese made EVs is right. 0.93

00:36:41.260 Well, let's say Trudeau's still in and we start importing a bunch of these Chinese made 1.00

00:36:46.680 EVs.

00:36:47.320 We're going to get, um, tariffs slapped on our entire auto industry.

00:36:52.300 If we do that.

00:36:52.720 Absolutely.

00:36:53.160 Um, I'm not sure what Trump does on softwood lumber.

00:36:57.080 He had the tariffs on softwood lumber lower.

00:36:59.820 Biden increased them, maybe increases them on Canada of spite.

00:37:04.340 Uh, and because he, he thinks it'll be good for, you know, uh, woodlots in, in Georgia,

00:37:10.240 let's say, you know, we, we could be on trouble, uh, on that side on softwood.

00:37:14.960 But, you know, I, I, I think we end up, uh, from Trump being potentially the victims of

00:37:22.820 him attacking, you know, us, uh, products coming in from other countries.

00:37:28.360 And we're just a side effect.

00:37:29.600 I don't think he's purposely going to pick on us this time.

00:37:33.860 Not yet.

00:37:35.320 Final beat to the fire question.

00:37:38.460 Everybody wants to know what you think.

00:37:40.920 Who's going to win on Tuesday?

00:37:42.820 Well, I guess nobody's going to win on Tuesday.

00:37:44.520 It's going to go for days.

00:37:45.600 You and I are great on that.

00:37:47.280 Who do you think is going to win?

00:37:48.060 Uh, it's too tight to tell the five 38 did, uh, hundreds and hundreds of, uh, computer

00:37:56.520 simulations based off the betting markets and the polling and 53 out of every 100 times

00:38:04.020 it went to Trump, 47 out of every 100 times it went to Harris.

00:38:08.140 Um, a lot of them calling it too close, saying it's too close to call.

00:38:12.900 If men show up in Pennsylvania for Trump, he wins that. 0.97

00:38:17.760 If he wins Pennsylvania, he takes the election.

00:38:20.560 Um, uh, although, uh, you know, um, Mark Halpern, I don't know if you saw the video I posted

00:38:26.860 earlier today, he's out on the road and he says there's a chance that, uh, Harris could

00:38:32.940 win Pennsylvania and still lose the election because of Wisconsin, which he feels is now

00:38:37.940 going towards Trump.

00:38:39.380 So that we're, we're basically going to be staring at results from Wisconsin, Michigan

00:38:46.280 and Pennsylvania because, uh, uh, I think the Southern states are all in Trump's column.

00:38:51.900 Now, North Carolina, you think she could win it that's tight, but we're watching those great 1.00

00:38:58.680 Lake States and it's our neighbors across the Lake, uh, that are going to decide who wins

00:39:05.420 this election.

00:39:06.040 And, and we're just going to be staring at those three.

00:39:09.140 Yeah, we are.

00:39:10.060 And for days to come, well, I couldn't think of a better guy to hang out with and stare

00:39:14.440 at those results with.

00:39:15.920 And, uh, I think you and I are going to have a lot of fun in the coming days.

00:39:19.040 Maybe not so much the free world, but it's good.

00:39:23.400 It's good for pundits.

00:39:24.600 It's good for pundits.

00:39:26.040 And, um, so, uh, we're grateful.

00:39:28.180 We got your, your punditry, uh, for the Kinsella cast.

00:39:31.480 My friend, thank you so much.

00:39:33.240 Have a great day and a great week.

00:39:35.260 Talk soon.

00:39:35.800 We'll be right back.

00:40:05.800 And now when I get a stare at the ceiling at night

00:40:11.380 I wonder what I couldn't cause

00:40:16.200 For a million years past, I'm over and home

00:40:21.560 For centuries now, I dream of you

00:40:25.760 And we'll take fights tonight 0.63

00:40:28.960 Over and over, I'll be here in this home 0.99

00:40:33.080 Try to bury your bones

00:40:39.480 Set in the way you never can trust anyone 0.70

00:40:46.980 If you take up between your legs and rise

00:40:51.740 When the thunder crashes outside of the windows at night

00:40:57.320 You're wasting something that we don't want

00:41:00.900 For a million years past, I'm over and over, I'll be here in this home

00:41:07.720 For centuries now, I'm over and over and over, I'll be here in this home

00:41:18.120 You're wasting something that we made

00:41:27.840 And you hated the love that I gave and I waited

00:41:34.400 But you faded away so

00:41:38.460 To these dark years

00:41:41.980 Try to bury your bones

00:41:48.380 Try to bury your bones

00:41:50.380 Try to bury your bones

00:41:54.460 This is CFRA Live, Sunday political panel.

00:42:24.460 And welcome to it. Everybody's well rested on a Sunday morning. So what better than to talk about politics? Joining us on the phone this morning, Tasha Carradine, political columnist for the National Post, writer for GZERO Media and an author. Tasha, good morning. I hope you're well rested.

00:42:37.800 I am. I have no excuse to not be on today.

00:42:41.520 I say that every Sunday, but it still feels different. Warren Kinsella, strategist and Post Media columnist, you can read his latest in the Toronto Sun. Good morning, Warren.

00:42:49.580 Morning. You mean it's not nine o'clock?

00:42:51.840 This is the new nine o'clock as of right now. Carl Belanger is also here. He is the president at Traction Strategies. Carl, good morning.

00:43:00.960 Good morning, guys. I have nothing clever to say.

00:43:03.200 Yeah. It usually takes me a few hours anyway, Carl.

00:43:07.420 Coming up, obviously, I want to get to the U.S. election because there's been lots of talk about that.

00:43:11.100 We'll kind of hit that probably last here, but a couple of very interesting notes here in federal politics this week.

00:43:16.960 So kind of honing in on this, you know, Justin Trudeau fighting a two-front war in many ways.

00:43:20.880 So he's got the opposition parties and his own caucus.

00:43:23.280 So let's start with the opposition parties.

00:43:25.420 The bloc saying that it will start to work with those parties to bring down the government.

00:43:29.380 The liberals haven't been playing ball when it comes to negotiations over old age security and increasing those benefits.

00:43:37.260 The NDP saying it isn't playing ball at all.

00:43:40.060 Just kind of wondering from your perspective, Warren, here, is there a move that the Trudeau government should be making right now to kind of move forward with trying to govern things?

00:43:48.040 Because it seems like there's just a stalemate at the House of Commons right now, and they're not going to be able to move anyway.

00:43:53.740 No, they're not going to be able to move any legislation.

00:43:57.620 You know, the House of Commons is paralyzed.

00:44:00.120 But, you know, not much is happening there anyway. 0.99

00:44:03.560 The NDP looks, you know, I long for the days when my friend Carl Belanger was there giving them excellent advice because they just look ridiculous.

00:44:14.820 You know, we're no longer part of this arrangement with the liberals, and we're going to defeat the government at the earliest opportunity. 0.79

00:44:20.680 And then at the earliest opportunity, they fold like a cheap suit, and they're not doing that.

00:44:26.500 So what the bloc is saying, you know, with the support of the conservatives really doesn't matter because, you know, the math suggests to me that the liberals are going to live to, you know, survive another day or survive to live another day or whatever.

00:44:42.100 So they're okay.

00:44:43.260 So it's really all a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

00:44:46.720 And the big question, you know, out of all of that noise, the only question anybody's asked, talking about in any of the parties, is what is Justin Trudeau going to do?

00:44:58.060 You know, this is obviously not sustainable.

00:45:00.500 It's not good for the Liberal Party.

00:45:02.120 It's not good for Parliament.

00:45:03.400 It's not good for the country.

00:45:04.900 Like, it's a bad situation.

00:45:07.000 So is he going to stay or is he going to go, as the clash said?

00:45:10.340 My bet is still that he's going to go, but he's going to wait until after the presidential vote on Tuesday.

00:45:16.560 And I suppose we'll wait and see how that kind of squares out.

00:45:20.480 Carl, just first on the idea of the parties here.

00:45:23.720 Everything seems to be at a standstill right now.

00:45:25.820 Do you see a way for Justin Trudeau in the Liberal government to kind of maneuver its way out of this, to negotiate its way out of this?

00:45:32.040 Or is this something where they don't control their own destiny right now?

00:45:34.560 Well, they have a lot more control than they would if the NDP was willing to go at the end of its logical conclusion after ripping up the deal. 0.63

00:45:46.340 As Warren said, they ripped up a deal.

00:45:49.120 And, you know, the logical conclusion would be to bring down the government if they don't, you know, deliver on a few things.

00:45:55.600 But there's no demand from the NDP right now.

00:45:57.980 So the Liberals have the bigger side of the stick because, you know, what Chekman Singh said this week made sense.

00:46:05.420 You don't want to have Pepe Roliev becoming prime minister.

00:46:08.860 The problem is that they had to deal with things that could get done.

00:46:12.740 But they ripped that up.

00:46:15.240 So now they have no demand and the NDP will support the Liberal government no matter what without getting anything in return.

00:46:22.880 So if I'm Justin Trudeau, I just reach out to the NDP and I say, hey, we need to get this parliament moving.

00:46:28.500 We need to get some things done.

00:46:30.040 What do you want to get things done?

00:46:31.880 And I think the NDP will play along because why not?

00:46:34.820 At this point, there is no reason to keep the conservatives, you know, paralyzing parliament like they've been doing on this issue of disclosing documents to the RCMP.

00:46:46.780 Just a quick follow, Carl, because I was talking to Gary Keller, so I don't want to steal his term this week.

00:46:50.440 But he said, you know, there was going to be divorce proceedings at some point over this deal between the NDP and the Liberals.

00:46:55.660 Do you feel like the NDP should be moving more strongly?

00:46:58.700 Or do you think it's working well right now in terms of trying to just lay back and get a sense of the political landscape right now and try to get more votes away from the Liberals?

00:47:06.700 Well, it worked well when the bloc took the balance of power to try to get something.

00:47:11.700 And so the NDP was no longer the one responsible for keeping the Liberal government alive.

00:47:16.860 The minute the ultimatum passed, then the onus is on the NDP.

00:47:21.220 And that's where the problem lies.

00:47:22.740 Because the NDP right now has not made any demands.

00:47:27.840 They will not make any demands.

00:47:29.840 And therefore, the balance of power that they have is not getting any results.

00:47:35.380 So why did they do that?

00:47:37.280 In the short run, it worked.

00:47:39.200 They went up in the poll.

00:47:40.740 They won the by-election in Manitoba.

00:47:42.600 But right now, people are like pondering, why is the NDP still supporting Justin Trudeau?

00:47:48.920 It seems like they're kind of sitting, waiting, wishing, to quote our friend Jack Johnson.

00:47:52.780 But in terms of, Tasha, the idea of where do you go from here?

00:47:57.860 Is there a way out of this from the Liberals?

00:47:59.100 It appears like they are kind of trapped in a court of their government anyway.

00:48:02.040 Is there a way for them to kind of negotiate their way out of this right now?

00:48:06.520 Well, negotiate.

00:48:07.560 I mean, you know, like the NDP is wanting to divorce, but it's still living in the same house.

00:48:13.240 Didn't move out.

00:48:13.980 You know, it's a separation.

00:48:15.100 Yeah, it's really going to be separate bedrooms, I guess, at this point.

00:48:18.980 But really, it's a joke.

00:48:21.280 So the Liberals, in terms of negotiating, I mean, Carl's right.

00:48:23.940 They could say to the NDP, hey, you know, you don't want to make Pierre Polyev prime minister,

00:48:28.540 so let's do a deal on X, Y, or Z.

00:48:32.720 But the thing is, it's still just buying time.

00:48:35.080 And the real question is, Justin Trudeau, and what's he going to do?

00:48:38.580 He has become his party, or his party has become him.

00:48:41.560 So until he makes a decision, that feeling of paralysis will still hold.

00:48:48.240 And I think the Liberals, their big challenge is that as long as he's leader,

00:48:52.300 there are people within the party who will not be motivated.

00:48:55.160 Thinking of volunteers, thinking of people on the ground, like their ground game,

00:48:58.360 they've got to get that going.

00:48:59.780 So either he gets, either he finds a way to motivate them,

00:49:05.340 or he gets out of the way so someone else can do that,

00:49:08.000 because the clock is ticking.

00:49:09.580 He could prorogue.

00:49:10.300 But even then, he buys a few months, and that's it.

00:49:13.120 So he has got to decide the way forward for the Liberals and himself.

00:49:17.640 It's a good point.

00:49:18.400 The individual, as much as the party, kind of matters right now,

00:49:20.360 which direction they're going in.

00:49:21.960 Carl, just on the issue I wanted to ask you about in terms of, yes, Trudeau's,

00:49:26.000 I guess, standing within the party here.

00:49:28.240 We heard from, you know, everything was united a couple of weeks ago.

00:49:30.960 Now we're hearing someone kind of a secret vote on Liberal leader Justin Trudeau

00:49:34.460 in terms of kind of being able to kind of push him out.

00:49:36.920 Has this, Carl, kind of made the situation worse?

00:49:40.140 Kind of, in some ways, ignoring the backbenchers' concerns here.

00:49:43.300 Has this made the situation worse for the Prime Minister? 0.95

00:49:45.320 It made it worse for the losers who have been trying to defeat him

00:49:49.560 and have not been able to because they, you know, clearly feel the heat from the poles, 0.78

00:49:56.060 clearly feel the heat from this current landscape.

00:49:59.860 And their solution was to throw out the captain out of the ship.

00:50:02.900 The problem is that when you're a sinking ship and you decide to poke holes at a hole,

00:50:07.740 you're bringing yourself down.

00:50:09.980 And that's what's happening.

00:50:11.240 And these guys have tried, not once, but twice, to bring him down,

00:50:16.360 trying to take some kind of secret ballot.

00:50:18.220 It hasn't worked.

00:50:19.480 And he's still going at it.

00:50:21.180 It's counterproductive.

00:50:22.540 It's not helping their cause.

00:50:24.120 It's not helping the Liberal Party.

00:50:26.100 And meanwhile, it's actually not helping Justin Trudeau to make his decision 0.99

00:50:29.680 because why would he cave on the pressure for a bunch of losers 0.97

00:50:34.260 who are currently thinking, well, we're going to lose 0.96

00:50:37.440 and therefore we need to bring down the government, bring down the Prime Minister.

00:50:41.360 It's not working, and I don't think it's going to work.

00:50:43.800 Carl doing his best Warren Kinsella impression there, I think.

00:50:47.860 Warren, just on the secret vote aspect of this,

00:50:50.540 is this wishful thinking, this whole kind of secret vote?

00:50:53.900 Are they, like Carl says, are they making this worse?

00:50:56.920 Now I want to do my Carl Belanger impersonation.

00:51:01.640 What, is it Saturday Night Live?

00:51:02.880 That's right.

00:51:04.980 Yeah, it's like Maya and Kamala.

00:51:07.040 Well, you know, it's just, it's like Carl says.

00:51:11.480 They took their shot.

00:51:12.960 It's Shakespearean. 1.00

00:51:14.400 You know, when you strike at the king, you've got to kill him. 0.99

00:51:17.480 And they didn't. 0.98

00:51:18.440 So, if anything, they solidified his position.

00:51:22.560 And because I'm older than dirt, you know, I've lived through this before with Kretzian 1.00

00:51:26.640 when the Martin munchkins were after him.

00:51:30.840 And, you know, every time they took a swipe at him,

00:51:32.940 they certainly didn't make for a great day for us.

00:51:35.800 It wasn't very pleasant.

00:51:36.840 But he ended up staying, like, two years longer than he planned to.

00:51:40.520 He actually ended up staying a longer, you know, a third election,

00:51:43.600 because he wasn't planning on doing that.

00:51:45.800 So, you know, they've done nothing to diminish Trudeau's position.

00:51:50.300 But as I pointed out earlier, you know, they've certainly distracted Parliament

00:51:55.120 and distracted the Liberal Party.

00:51:57.420 And it's not good for the country, because we actually do have important issues

00:52:00.980 to talk about other than, you know, the state of the Liberal Party of Canada.

00:52:05.420 So, you know, I think that he's bought himself some time, but not a lot of time.

00:52:14.280 And, you know, he's got to make a decision.

00:52:17.540 And I think, you know, Justin, if you're listening to us,

00:52:20.580 I think you're a smart enough guy to figure out it's all over.

00:52:24.140 It's done.

00:52:25.420 You're done like dinner.

00:52:26.920 And you've got to go if you're going to save the Liberal Party of Canada.

00:52:30.600 The question is, are you?

00:52:32.480 And so far, no is the answer.

00:52:34.440 We'll see if that changes over the course of the next couple of weeks.

00:52:37.540 Turning our attention to Pierre Polyev here, the opposition leader, of course.

00:52:41.140 We've seen a little bit of an interesting kind of move forward on this foreign interference aspect this week.

00:52:45.580 So the big question was around security clearance.

00:52:47.560 Should Polyev get security clearance to see these briefings,

00:52:51.020 these detailed briefings that perhaps, as the prime minister says,

00:52:53.780 show some within his own party have been unwitting or winning members

00:52:57.420 of taking part in kind of foreign interference here?

00:52:59.660 But it kind of saying he's willing to release the conservative MPs' names this week if they were attached to it.

00:53:05.720 I don't know how he would get a hold of them.

00:53:07.540 But has he kind of successfully, Tasha, kind of batted off this issue in your mind?

00:53:11.880 Or is this kind of a weakness for him moving forward?

00:53:14.860 No, I think it's a weakness.

00:53:16.580 The problem is it's not a weakness that really matters to a lot of voters.

00:53:20.400 And it's so frustrating because foreign interference ultimately is one of the most important issues.

00:53:27.100 It strikes at the heart of sovereignty and democracy and the ability to run your own country.

00:53:32.800 And most people don't care about it.

00:53:35.320 Why?

00:53:35.860 Partly because they care more about things that are day-to-day for them,

00:53:38.680 like paying the rent and feeding the kids and all those things that this government has made it harder for them to do.

00:53:43.780 So they look at that.

00:53:45.440 But Pahliev, I go back to him.

00:53:47.720 I've always said about this.

00:53:48.960 It's not about what he can tell the rest of the world about foreign interference.

00:53:52.920 No, it's about cleaning his own house.

00:53:55.300 And to clean his house, he needs to know who the people are.

00:53:58.360 All the leaders have that responsibility.

00:54:00.680 It's the RCMP's responsibility to prosecute people,

00:54:03.900 or rather to get prosecutions underway to investigate whether people are, in fact, treasonous to the country.

00:54:11.420 Their job is to investigate that and recommend the laying of charges, and that's what they do.

00:54:16.620 But if there are five people in your company that are stealing from you, for example,

00:54:22.360 it's not in your interest to go out and put a notice on the wall or an ad or a social media post saying,

00:54:28.180 these people are stealing from me.

00:54:29.240 You just fire them. 0.74

00:54:30.540 That's what he needs to do.

00:54:32.120 So he needs to get the security clearance.

00:54:34.280 He needs to find out who they are and stop politicizing this issue.

00:54:37.120 Warren, do you find this is still kind of something hanging around Pahliev's neck,

00:54:40.400 or do you think he's kind of successfully weaned off this attack from the prime minister?

00:54:45.640 Yeah, I don't think it really works with, you know, beyond the ranks of Trudon and, you know, the Trudeau hardcore.

00:54:53.620 Maybe some members of the press gallery.

00:54:55.700 But, you know, most people, I just totally second everything that Tasha said.

00:55:02.120 Like, it is a super important issue, you know, a foreign hostile power meddling in our democracy at the time of an election. 0.63

00:55:11.440 And that we're learning that, you know, China and Russia and Iran and others and India certainly have been doing that,

00:55:19.040 you know, outside of time of elections.

00:55:21.040 That's really, really important.

00:55:23.360 But, you know, and I'd love to say that Joe and Jane Front Porch, your average Canadian, are seized with the issue.

00:55:29.520 They're just not.

00:55:30.760 They are not paying attention to it.

00:55:33.060 They're paying attention to the other subject that Pahliev talks about all the time,

00:55:37.380 which is the pocketbook stuff, you know, cost of groceries, cost of housing, cost of living.

00:55:43.520 Like, in Toronto this week, the food banks announced that they are now serving 2 million people.

00:55:54.120 Like, that to me is the biggest news of all.

00:55:57.620 And, you know, shameful in a country like this that we're experiencing something like that.

00:56:02.640 2 million people using food banks.

00:56:05.360 They've had to now take, you know, boxes of cereal that they used to give up to get out to families.

00:56:11.900 They had to divide up the boxes of cereal because they don't have enough food to give out to people.

00:56:17.320 That's where people are at.

00:56:19.300 They're not thinking about foreign interference.

00:56:21.520 Yeah, and locally much the same.

00:56:23.260 Many community food banks here this week asking the federal government and the provincial government for help here.

00:56:27.960 Carl, just on the issue of foreign interference, I mentioned a couple of things Pahliev has said this week.

00:56:32.240 Do you think he successfully warded off kind of this attack?

00:56:35.200 Or, like the other two really are saying, this isn't really something or an issue that hits home with many voters.

00:56:41.240 Oh, that's right.

00:56:41.820 It's not.

00:56:42.920 If anything, it's hurt the liberal government more than it's hurting Pahliev for sure.

00:56:48.240 And the thing is, I mean, Pahliev is a smart guy.

00:56:51.600 I've known him since the late 90s.

00:56:53.640 And believe me, I think he does know already who the MPs are in this caucus that benefited from foreign interference.

00:57:03.800 And I think he knows that foreign interference was at play during the leadership race.

00:57:07.600 Of course he knows.

00:57:09.300 I mean, anybody who's been involved in federal politics knows that some of these actors have been quite involved in nomination meetings for decades now.

00:57:19.020 And so I think that Pahliev is just playing a game.

00:57:22.780 That's what he does.

00:57:23.560 He likes to play games.

00:57:25.440 And he's doing that, you know, not to act.

00:57:29.720 So is that the attitude that we are looking forward in a statement?

00:57:34.060 No.

00:57:34.800 It doesn't matter because there are bigger issues at play.

00:57:37.460 And it's not hurting him the way it hurt the liberals when they were brought, kicking, and screaming into having this public inquiry into foreign interference.

00:57:49.580 I just wanted to head south of the border as well to the circus that is the U.S. race for the White House right now.

00:57:56.220 I know a lot of people, you know, they don't like talking about U.S. politics or they think it doesn't affect us.

00:58:00.280 I think that's not true.

00:58:01.300 Obviously, our biggest trading partner does affect us, whoever their leader is in this way.

00:58:07.480 Warren, I know you kind of alluded before that, you know, that or you think that Trudeau is hoping for a Trump win here in terms of helping him in the polls.

00:58:15.060 Do you think that's a distinct possibility right now?

00:58:17.300 We're looking at a 50-50 race south of the border.

00:58:20.540 It is a distinct possibility.

00:58:22.280 But as of last night, things started to shift.

00:58:26.140 You know, the most accurate pollster in the United States of America is in the little state of Iowa.

00:58:31.960 And the woman who runs that polling agency found that Kamala Harris is definitively ahead of Trump, three or four points in Iowa.

00:58:44.040 Iowa, you know, which Trump won twice last time.

00:58:47.580 And then New York Times and Siena is the other most accurate poll.

00:58:52.600 Those are the two most accurate.

00:58:54.420 And they're finding her ahead in North Carolina.

00:58:57.600 She's ahead in Georgia.

00:58:59.200 She's ahead in Wisconsin.

00:59:01.220 She's ahead in Nevada.

00:59:02.900 She's ahead in, well, they're tied in Michigan.

00:59:04.840 So, like, on the seven-front battle, you know, seven-front war that she's been waging, it's kind of like Israel, she's starting to win at the right time. 0.89

00:59:16.200 She's peaking at the right time.

00:59:18.340 But I think, and I've got a column about it in post-media this morning, the reason why I think she's going to win is in a tight race, getting out the vote is everything.

00:59:29.680 And she raised, between July and October, guys, $1 billion U.S.

00:59:37.980 $1 billion?

00:59:39.760 $1 billion.

00:59:41.480 Nobody's ever raised that much money in the history of politics.

00:59:46.440 Nobody's ever done that.

00:59:47.820 So she's been able to spend money on down-ticket Democrats and help them out. 1.00

00:59:52.560 She's been able to help out on abortion initiatives in different states because they all have different ballots.

00:59:57.780 She's certainly been able to advertise.

01:00:00.500 You can't go anywhere in the United States without seeing one of her ads.

01:00:03.500 But she's been able to spend money on getting out the vote teams. 1.00

01:00:07.580 And that really matters because the Republicans don't have the ability to do that.

01:00:12.680 They farmed out their get-out-the-vote operation to Elon Musk, who may know a lot about rockets and Twitter.

01:00:19.640 Well, actually, he doesn't know a lot about either. 0.99

01:00:21.580 But anyway, he's an idiot, and he has messed up their get-out-the-vote operation, and it's too late to fix it. 0.99

01:00:29.140 So I apologize for going so long, but I think that she's going to win. 1.00

01:00:32.940 She's going to eke it out probably by Friday afternoon, Saturday morning in the Electoral College 1.00

01:00:39.020 because her team is just going to be way better at getting out the vote.

01:00:42.720 It's going to be incredible to kind of watch because it is going to take some time, I think, here to get a final winner.

01:00:48.760 That's going to be no doubt.

01:00:49.820 Carl, thoughts on where this is headed.

01:00:51.780 As we mentioned, it is a very close race.

01:00:53.620 That Iowa poll, the New York Times poll, showing some bumps for Harris in the last moments here.

01:00:58.800 Any thoughts on the final stretch to this race?

01:01:02.480 45% of conservative voters in Canada are hoping that Trump will win.

01:01:06.380 And then in the other parties, you have a handful of voters who think that Trump or hope that Trump will win.

01:01:12.840 And then you have Justin Trudeau rooting for Donald Trump because if Kamala Harris wins, he doesn't have the Trump card.

01:01:19.520 He needs a Trump card.

01:01:20.920 That's a good asset for him to use in the next election because he can equate Poitier to Trump.

01:01:28.020 But if Trump loses, Justin Trudeau has one less card in his hand.

01:01:33.960 And I think even though in his heart I believe he wants Kamala Harris to win, it would be much better for him if Donald Trump won.

01:01:42.040 There's a headline for Wednesday morning, Trudeau loses Trump card.

01:01:45.400 Tasha Carradine, what do you think on this in terms of it is a very close race?

01:01:49.680 Do you have any picks here or, I guess, predictions?

01:01:53.980 And will this have an impact on the race here, particularly with Justin Trudeau?

01:01:58.080 Well, I don't have the insider knowledge that Warren does.

01:02:01.220 But just looking at what I've seen, I think the Madison Square Garden fiasco was a tipping point.

01:02:08.420 Polls since then show, especially women, and some of the other things he's said since then,

01:02:12.680 you know, we'll protect women even if they don't want us to. 0.76

01:02:15.320 These kinds of unforced errors that have annoyed and irritated specific groups, you know, Puerto Ricans, women, black Americans.

01:02:24.100 Like just it was that event was it was it was actually symbolic of his entire campaign.

01:02:29.740 It was it was a night of overconfident Bergadaccio and with people who weren't even politicians, because at the end of the day, Trump isn't either.

01:02:38.220 He is a celebrity turned politician, celebrity business person turned politician.

01:02:41.640 And it was, you know, we're going to win.

01:02:44.720 And here we are in New York and trying to make a statement.

01:02:47.540 And it went so sideways.

01:02:49.780 And I think that that has has, like I said, irritated, angered people who may have, in some cases, been prepared to vote for him and just said, you know what?

01:02:59.740 It's a last last straw.

01:03:00.960 I can't do it.

01:03:01.620 I just can't do it.

01:03:02.700 And either they will vote hot hairs or they just won't vote, period.

01:03:05.660 They won't.

01:03:06.160 They'll stay home.

01:03:06.740 And that goes to the whole ground game.

01:03:08.840 I mean, getting people out is important.

01:03:10.420 But if they don't want to get out, then you can't get them out no matter how much.

01:03:14.420 Right.

01:03:14.680 They may just choose to just choose to not vote.

01:03:17.680 And I think that that may change things at the end of the day.

01:03:21.020 As for Trudeau.

01:03:22.140 Yeah, he wants Trump to win.

01:03:23.960 You know, self-saving person that he is.

01:03:27.480 It's all about him.

01:03:28.600 But at the end of the day, I don't know if that will actually matter.

01:03:31.240 Because if Trump does win, then that sense of outrage that is driving his campaign, of which some is present in Canada and it's economically driven here, will still be here.

01:03:43.020 I don't think it will disappear because he gets into office.

01:03:46.420 In fact, if anything, it might be reinforced.

01:03:48.200 So I don't think it will help Trudeau necessarily the way he thinks it will.

01:03:52.260 Fascinating stuff.

01:03:53.120 I don't know the cliche is voter turnout, right?

01:03:55.420 But it appears like it actually is going to be the case here.

01:03:57.560 But we'll wait to see on Tuesday.

01:03:59.040 Carl Belanger, Warren Quintella, Tasha Carradine, thanks so much for your time this morning.

01:04:02.600 I really appreciate it.

01:04:03.920 Thanks, guys.

01:04:04.900 Go Kamala.

01:04:06.020 That is our CFRA Live Sunday political panel.

01:04:08.360 As you heard there, Warren Quintella is a strategist.

01:04:11.420 He had a Post Media columnist.

01:04:12.380 You can read his latest in the Toronto Sun.

01:04:14.260 Tasha Carradine, political columnist for the National Post and a writer for GZERO Media.

01:04:17.760 And Carl Belanger is the president at Traction Strategy.

01:04:21.040 Culture's a policy. 1.00

01:04:23.920 Shit has with no remorse. 1.00

01:04:27.580 Wasted all humanity. 1.00

01:04:29.040 Life as it topples out.

01:04:33.720 Weigh in polluted heat.

01:04:37.660 Stardews with empty worms.

01:04:41.320 Lies at once and gave us false hope. 0.88

01:04:44.560 Life as it topples out.

01:04:50.280 Lies at once. 0.98

01:04:53.440 Lies at once. 0.98

01:04:56.940 Lies at once. 0.98

01:04:57.720 Lies at once. 0.98

01:05:16.000 Lies at once. 0.98

01:05:17.040 Listen like a love, listen like a love for yourself 1.00

01:05:47.040 No more, wasting all humanity, fucker, laugh at it 1.00

01:05:54.040 Double down! 1.00

01:05:56.040 Wings, looted, leaked, starched, ripped, words

01:06:02.040 You laugh at it, it's awful, but we laugh at it

01:06:07.040 Double down! 1.00

kinsellacast - November 03, 2024

KINSELLACAST 334： Why Kamala will win (I hope and pray) - with Lilley, Mraz, Kheiriddin, Belanger plus Chemical Brothers, Joyce Manor, Band of Bastards and more!

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