KINSELLACAST 334： Why Kamala will win (I hope and pray) - with Lilley, Mraz, Kheiriddin, Belanger plus Chemical Brothers, Joyce Manor, Band of Bastards and more!
Kamala Harris has a chance to become the first woman to become president of the United States since 1988. Is she going to beat Donald Trump in 2020? Will she win? And will she win with a smaller margin of victory than Hillary Clinton had in 2016?
00:02:49.100They've got a whopper of a story that just came out on the weekend.
00:02:52.660And their candidate, Donald Trump, hasn't had a great time of it either.
00:02:57.980Convicted felon, adjudicated sexual offender, twice impeached president, serial denier of election results that have been certified by the courts, by Congress, by his former vice president.
00:03:10.240And quite a few of the people who worked for him from 2016 to 2020, they're voting for Harris.
00:03:28.040Even though the vice president has run a solid campaign, and even though Trump has had a less than stellar campaign, it hasn't changed much.
00:03:36.560The race has been tighter than a tick.
00:03:38.520And I still think Harris is going to win, however.
00:03:43.980The Canadian fans, and there's not a ton of them, but they exist, of Trump, just put down your pitchforks, your torches, just hear me out.
00:03:52.920There's one reason why Trump is going to lose and Harris is going to win.
00:03:56.640And she's not going to win by a landslide, but by enough to eke out a win in the Electoral College, likely after several days of fighting and court challenges.
00:04:42.600Democrats have only won there once in the past quarter century, and only barely Barack Obama in 2008.
00:04:50.040Despite that, the Harris Democrats have been everywhere in North Carolina in 2024, delivering supplies for relief efforts,
00:04:58.780ferrying in water and batteries and toiletries, doing wellness checks on residents, running helplines for victims, knocking on tens of thousands of doors.
00:13:31.580I do know he believes that the loss of life in Ukraine has been tragic.
00:13:36.300It's the only thing he's ever said about it that made sense to me has been over 400,000 now dead, at very least, on both sides in Ukraine.
00:13:43.940What a terrible, needless loss of life.
00:13:47.620The question is whether he can force Ukraine to stop fighting, which is what he'd like to do.
00:13:52.420He doesn't give a shit about what they've lost in territory or life or dignity or independence or the promise of a dream of independence from, you know, a Soviet.
00:14:00.540I use that word deliberately, you know, republic to their north.
00:14:03.460I don't know if he can force them to stop, even if he wanted to.
00:14:07.720But let's say he could get them to the table.
00:14:11.040The only way he does that is by cutting off their weapons supply and telling anybody else who's in NATO that they can't give them weapons either or they'll be shit.
00:14:31.180So I'm hoping, I'm hoping, of course, that Ukraine is allowed to continue to fight for its own independence, its sovereignty and its future.
00:14:39.940But I have no idea what Trump would do in that very thick soup.
00:15:21.120Again, it's very clear the United States has been backchanneling for or to Iran, pardon me, on behalf of Israel or maybe not on behalf of Israel.
00:15:31.780But certainly the U.S. State Department have their hand in that thick mix.
00:15:37.840You know, Netanyahu and Netanyahu's Israelis, his bloc in Israel, certainly seem to support Trump and think he's better for them in allowing them to continue unmolested in their fight.
00:15:48.980To the north was Hezbollah, with Syria, with Yemen, and, of course, with Iran.
00:16:00.600I mean, yesterday he called Tim Waltz retarded.
00:16:02.980And I always think he's talking about himself when he speaks.
00:16:05.600I mean, there he was with two leaders of the Muslim community, serious leaders of the Muslim community who are very much, quote, unquote, pro-Palestine at his rally, talking about his wonderful Muslim friends.
00:16:18.980I have no idea what this guy believes in.
00:16:21.280I mean, I suspect if he wanted to, you know, if he could promise that he'd try to play Abraham and give us all the heads of our penises back.
00:16:28.460So I think, you know, Taylor Swift, I like to quote Taylor Swift.
00:16:36.700I didn't like the end of this movie, something like that.
00:16:39.680Trump is so inconsistent in his policies.
00:16:45.340But what he has promised on both fronts, pardon the pun, is that he will end the wars in both regions.
00:16:52.460I don't know what that looks like for Israel, but it's probably much more of a hawkish response or plan going forward and one much more supportive of Israel than perhaps Harris-Waltz coalition might bring to the table.
00:18:47.620Maybe he's hopeful of a Harris-Waltz ascendancy and a resurgence of back to the center or even the left in the United States, of progressive politics, of sunny ways, of hopeful stuff.
00:18:57.680Or maybe he's hopeful that Trump wins and Canadians will revile that result and associate Pierre Paulyevna with sort of Trumpism and populism and easy answers to complicated questions informed by no facts.
00:19:10.740So maybe he thinks that he gets, you know, a good gut response, a gut check by Canadians who sort of will say to themselves, well, we can't have two Trumps on the continent.
00:19:24.160I would love to believe that about Canadians.
00:19:27.040I suspect Trudeau might not get what he's wishing for.
00:19:32.020You got to be careful what you wish for because there might be a very large chunk of Canadians who say we need a radical change in Canada as well.
00:19:39.380And Trudeau is certainly not going to bring it to the table.
00:19:41.220And Pierre Paulyevna is talking like he might go after our deep state if there is such a thing, our cold state.
00:19:49.880So whatever is going on in the mind of Justin Trudeau, his hair looks great.
00:19:54.160And I don't think as I walk around the streets of Toronto and Canada that anybody talks about him, gives a shit.
00:19:59.900They've got a, they've done a gut check on him and they don't like the cut of his jib.
00:20:05.000I'm not sure they like the cut of Pierre Paulyevna's jib either, but they might let it luff on the front of the boat for a while.
00:20:15.620All right, well then let's, I guess we don't know what's going to happen in the United States, as you pointed out, very honestly, in answer to my question.
00:20:25.480So, and it's going to take a number of days for it to get settled.
00:20:31.680What, I'm going to put your feet to the fire here, is our final question for this week on the Kinsella cast.
00:20:38.540What do you think Justin Trudeau is going to do?
00:20:44.040Whether she wins, whether he wins, the next few days, you know, it looks like we're heading to another confrontation in the House of Commons.
00:20:52.720The Bloc has said they are going to vote against the government.
00:20:56.340The Tories obviously are going to do that.
00:20:58.640The NDP looks like they're chickening out again.
00:21:01.500But what do you think Trudeau is going to do?
00:21:30.520They don't have any money in the bank.
00:21:32.000Nope, I don't think they care about their pensions.
00:21:33.720I think they care about even surviving as a party.
00:21:36.180But if Trump wins, and didn't Trump in the last couple of weeks make a – so he took a drive-by shooting on Trudeau and said, you know, if he came across the border, he'd have him arrested or worse.
00:21:52.760So I think he would be terribly worried, first of all, if Trump came to power, because one of Trump's big issues, and he's been consistent on it, and weirdly right, is that members of NATO should be spending the money and the commitment to NATO, or America's getting out of NATO and certainly not going to subsidize Canada and Western Europe anymore.
00:22:14.340I think he would be terrified of a Trump win, but also might take the opportunity to secure another win if Trump does some of the crazy, crazy, absurd – I can't even believe he says them out loud – things that he says he's going to do, whether that's hypothetically assassinating Liz Cheney or building a wall or deporting two million people who just wanted a better life somewhere and are being treated like criminals because the world treated them poorly.
00:22:47.160But I know Pierre Pellet has also been cautious, I know, not to get too close to Trump.
00:22:53.300I think he smells correctly that even right-wing Canadians are not that excited about the man, and I've got to say, actually said this week, look at this beautiful white skin.
00:41:54.460This is CFRA Live, Sunday political panel.
00:42:24.460And welcome to it. Everybody's well rested on a Sunday morning. So what better than to talk about politics? Joining us on the phone this morning, Tasha Carradine, political columnist for the National Post, writer for GZERO Media and an author. Tasha, good morning. I hope you're well rested.
00:42:37.800I am. I have no excuse to not be on today.
00:42:41.520I say that every Sunday, but it still feels different. Warren Kinsella, strategist and Post Media columnist, you can read his latest in the Toronto Sun. Good morning, Warren.
00:42:49.580Morning. You mean it's not nine o'clock?
00:42:51.840This is the new nine o'clock as of right now. Carl Belanger is also here. He is the president at Traction Strategies. Carl, good morning.
00:43:00.960Good morning, guys. I have nothing clever to say.
00:43:03.200Yeah. It usually takes me a few hours anyway, Carl.
00:43:07.420Coming up, obviously, I want to get to the U.S. election because there's been lots of talk about that.
00:43:11.100We'll kind of hit that probably last here, but a couple of very interesting notes here in federal politics this week.
00:43:16.960So kind of honing in on this, you know, Justin Trudeau fighting a two-front war in many ways.
00:43:20.880So he's got the opposition parties and his own caucus.
00:43:23.280So let's start with the opposition parties.
00:43:25.420The bloc saying that it will start to work with those parties to bring down the government.
00:43:29.380The liberals haven't been playing ball when it comes to negotiations over old age security and increasing those benefits.
00:43:37.260The NDP saying it isn't playing ball at all.
00:43:40.060Just kind of wondering from your perspective, Warren, here, is there a move that the Trudeau government should be making right now to kind of move forward with trying to govern things?
00:43:48.040Because it seems like there's just a stalemate at the House of Commons right now, and they're not going to be able to move anyway.
00:43:53.740No, they're not going to be able to move any legislation.
00:43:57.620You know, the House of Commons is paralyzed.
00:44:00.120But, you know, not much is happening there anyway.
00:44:03.560The NDP looks, you know, I long for the days when my friend Carl Belanger was there giving them excellent advice because they just look ridiculous.
00:44:14.820You know, we're no longer part of this arrangement with the liberals, and we're going to defeat the government at the earliest opportunity.
00:44:20.680And then at the earliest opportunity, they fold like a cheap suit, and they're not doing that.
00:44:26.500So what the bloc is saying, you know, with the support of the conservatives really doesn't matter because, you know, the math suggests to me that the liberals are going to live to, you know, survive another day or survive to live another day or whatever.
00:44:43.260So it's really all a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.
00:44:46.720And the big question, you know, out of all of that noise, the only question anybody's asked, talking about in any of the parties, is what is Justin Trudeau going to do?
00:44:58.060You know, this is obviously not sustainable.
00:45:07.000So is he going to stay or is he going to go, as the clash said?
00:45:10.340My bet is still that he's going to go, but he's going to wait until after the presidential vote on Tuesday.
00:45:16.560And I suppose we'll wait and see how that kind of squares out.
00:45:20.480Carl, just first on the idea of the parties here.
00:45:23.720Everything seems to be at a standstill right now.
00:45:25.820Do you see a way for Justin Trudeau in the Liberal government to kind of maneuver its way out of this, to negotiate its way out of this?
00:45:32.040Or is this something where they don't control their own destiny right now?
00:45:34.560Well, they have a lot more control than they would if the NDP was willing to go at the end of its logical conclusion after ripping up the deal.
00:45:46.340As Warren said, they ripped up a deal.
00:45:49.120And, you know, the logical conclusion would be to bring down the government if they don't, you know, deliver on a few things.
00:45:55.600But there's no demand from the NDP right now.
00:45:57.980So the Liberals have the bigger side of the stick because, you know, what Chekman Singh said this week made sense.
00:46:05.420You don't want to have Pepe Roliev becoming prime minister.
00:46:08.860The problem is that they had to deal with things that could get done.
00:46:31.880And I think the NDP will play along because why not?
00:46:34.820At this point, there is no reason to keep the conservatives, you know, paralyzing parliament like they've been doing on this issue of disclosing documents to the RCMP.
00:46:46.780Just a quick follow, Carl, because I was talking to Gary Keller, so I don't want to steal his term this week.
00:46:50.440But he said, you know, there was going to be divorce proceedings at some point over this deal between the NDP and the Liberals.
00:46:55.660Do you feel like the NDP should be moving more strongly?
00:46:58.700Or do you think it's working well right now in terms of trying to just lay back and get a sense of the political landscape right now and try to get more votes away from the Liberals?
00:47:06.700Well, it worked well when the bloc took the balance of power to try to get something.
00:47:11.700And so the NDP was no longer the one responsible for keeping the Liberal government alive.
00:47:16.860The minute the ultimatum passed, then the onus is on the NDP.
00:57:09.300I mean, anybody who's been involved in federal politics knows that some of these actors have been quite involved in nomination meetings for decades now.
00:57:19.020And so I think that Pahliev is just playing a game.
00:57:34.800It doesn't matter because there are bigger issues at play.
00:57:37.460And it's not hurting him the way it hurt the liberals when they were brought, kicking, and screaming into having this public inquiry into foreign interference.
00:57:49.580I just wanted to head south of the border as well to the circus that is the U.S. race for the White House right now.
00:57:56.220I know a lot of people, you know, they don't like talking about U.S. politics or they think it doesn't affect us.
00:58:01.300Obviously, our biggest trading partner does affect us, whoever their leader is in this way.
00:58:07.480Warren, I know you kind of alluded before that, you know, that or you think that Trudeau is hoping for a Trump win here in terms of helping him in the polls.
00:58:15.060Do you think that's a distinct possibility right now?
00:58:17.300We're looking at a 50-50 race south of the border.
00:59:02.900She's ahead in, well, they're tied in Michigan.
00:59:04.840So, like, on the seven-front battle, you know, seven-front war that she's been waging, it's kind of like Israel, she's starting to win at the right time.
00:59:18.340But I think, and I've got a column about it in post-media this morning, the reason why I think she's going to win is in a tight race, getting out the vote is everything.
00:59:29.680And she raised, between July and October, guys, $1 billion U.S.
01:01:20.920That's a good asset for him to use in the next election because he can equate Poitier to Trump.
01:01:28.020But if Trump loses, Justin Trudeau has one less card in his hand.
01:01:33.960And I think even though in his heart I believe he wants Kamala Harris to win, it would be much better for him if Donald Trump won.
01:01:42.040There's a headline for Wednesday morning, Trudeau loses Trump card.
01:01:45.400Tasha Carradine, what do you think on this in terms of it is a very close race?
01:01:49.680Do you have any picks here or, I guess, predictions?
01:01:53.980And will this have an impact on the race here, particularly with Justin Trudeau?
01:01:58.080Well, I don't have the insider knowledge that Warren does.
01:02:01.220But just looking at what I've seen, I think the Madison Square Garden fiasco was a tipping point.
01:02:08.420Polls since then show, especially women, and some of the other things he's said since then,
01:02:12.680you know, we'll protect women even if they don't want us to.
01:02:15.320These kinds of unforced errors that have annoyed and irritated specific groups, you know, Puerto Ricans, women, black Americans.
01:02:24.100Like just it was that event was it was it was actually symbolic of his entire campaign.
01:02:29.740It was it was a night of overconfident Bergadaccio and with people who weren't even politicians, because at the end of the day, Trump isn't either.
01:02:38.220He is a celebrity turned politician, celebrity business person turned politician.
01:02:41.640And it was, you know, we're going to win.
01:02:44.720And here we are in New York and trying to make a statement.
01:02:49.780And I think that that has has, like I said, irritated, angered people who may have, in some cases, been prepared to vote for him and just said, you know what?
01:03:28.600But at the end of the day, I don't know if that will actually matter.
01:03:31.240Because if Trump does win, then that sense of outrage that is driving his campaign, of which some is present in Canada and it's economically driven here, will still be here.
01:03:43.020I don't think it will disappear because he gets into office.
01:03:46.420In fact, if anything, it might be reinforced.
01:03:48.200So I don't think it will help Trudeau necessarily the way he thinks it will.