kinsellacast - January 26, 2025


KINSELLACAST 346: The enemy reveals himself to Lilley, Kheiriddin, Mraz, Belanger - plus Mitski, The Terrys, Bad Dreems, West Thebarton


Episode Stats

Length

1 hour and 9 minutes

Words per Minute

154.30542

Word Count

10,648

Sentence Count

725

Misogynist Sentences

5

Hate Speech Sentences

11


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 It's the KinsellaCast, starring Warren Kinsella.
00:00:18.400 Hey, it's Warren. Welcome to the KinsellaCast.
00:00:21.120 Welcome to the last few days before the Trump tariffs land and all that that means for us as a country
00:00:27.780 and our relationship with our former best friend and ally and partner.
00:00:35.180 So a lot of talk about that on this week's show with Tasha Carradine, Carl Belonger, Brian Lilly, John Mraz,
00:00:42.720 and got some good music too. Kind of poppy, new wavy stuff. I was feeling new wavy.
00:00:49.680 So I've got Mitski with Washing Machine Heart, which is from 2018, I know, but I just like it.
00:00:59.600 I like the production of the song. And then I've got other kind of poppy, new wavy stuff.
00:01:04.940 The Terrys with their song Tokyo. They're from Australia.
00:01:09.200 They're from a place called Garindong. Garindong? Gong? Get it on. David Essex, Bang a Gong.
00:01:16.860 Also from Australia. A lot of Australians on this show. Bad Dreams. Playing them again, I really like them.
00:01:24.960 And they've been together since 2015. And their song Cuffed and Collared, which is what should happen to Donald Trump.
00:01:34.440 Also from Australia, from Adelaide. Got Wes the Barton. That's two words, not three words.
00:01:41.620 With Stuck on You. Mitski, as I mentioned. And I may have time for the sprints from Ireland.
00:01:48.880 I played them before. How does the story end?
00:01:51.700 Because that's something all of us have been kind of wondering, is how does this story end?
00:01:56.960 But got some good stuff for you. And I'm grateful you are here to listen.
00:02:02.720 One's enemy reveals himself by degrees.
00:02:10.060 So like Putin's Russia didn't suddenly show itself to be the enemy of Ukraine on February 24th, 2022.
00:02:17.240 Like a dawn on that day, yes.
00:02:20.220 Russia launched air and ground assaults on Ukraine from the north and the south and the east, yes.
00:02:25.640 But Russia had been massing troops on its border with Ukraine since 2021.
00:02:32.400 Putin had written essays about his planned war, talking about how history demanded it.
00:02:39.800 Threats were made over and over to Ukrainian leaders and to NATO, too, to stay out, which worked.
00:02:46.880 Russia's transformation into the enemy of Ukraine did not happen overnight.
00:02:51.820 It had been underway for some time.
00:02:53.800 And so, too, now, Donald Trump.
00:02:56.820 He's transformed himself into Canada's enemy.
00:02:59.820 And the word is not an overstatement.
00:03:02.480 The dictionaries define enemy as a, quote,
00:03:05.760 person who is actively opposed or hostile to someone or something, end quote.
00:03:10.740 That's effectively what the newly returned President of the United States is now.
00:03:16.320 The person who is actively opposed to us as a people and a nation.
00:03:20.220 The one who has repeatedly shown hostility towards us.
00:03:24.180 And the evidence of that isn't difficult to find.
00:03:29.180 There's been a lot of it for weeks, every day, before and after Trump took the oath of office,
00:03:35.700 without, I note, putting his hand on the Bible.
00:03:38.380 He said he's going to use economic force against us.
00:03:41.900 He has repeatedly said he's going to impose 25% tariffs on us next weekend,
00:03:46.340 which would result in hundreds of thousands of Canadians losing their jobs in a recession.
00:03:51.860 He said he wants to take over Canada and make us the 51st state.
00:03:55.520 And he's mocked our duly elected leaders from Justin Trudeau to Pierre Polyev.
00:03:59.680 And this week, he broadcast his apparent hatred of Canada to the world,
00:04:04.920 to an audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
00:04:07.780 And just permit me a little bit of laughter about those fucking idiots
00:04:12.020 who used to go on and on and on about WEF conspiracies.
00:04:16.460 They're awfully silent since their hero showed up at the WEF, aren't they?
00:04:23.720 Anyway, here's just a few of the things that Trump said at the WEF.
00:04:29.320 These are quotes.
00:04:30.680 One thing we're going to be demanding respect from other nations, Canada.
00:04:34.100 We have a tremendous deficit with Canada.
00:04:36.940 If you're a state, we won't have a deficit.
00:04:39.000 We won't have to tariff you.
00:04:40.840 Canada's been very tough to deal with over the years.
00:04:42.780 It's not fair that we should have a $200 billion or $250 billion deficit.
00:04:47.900 We don't need them to make our cars.
00:04:49.600 We don't need their lumber because we have our own for us.
00:04:51.960 We don't need their oil and gas.
00:04:53.320 We have more than anybody.
00:04:55.660 Those are direct quotes, and they're all lies.
00:05:00.000 Now, pointing out the way in which Trump lies is a waste of time.
00:05:03.600 Everybody in America knew he was a liar,
00:05:06.160 and 77 million of them voted for him anyway.
00:05:10.260 So that doesn't work.
00:05:11.300 And mincing down to Mar-a-Lago cap-in-hand to suck up to Trump doesn't work either.
00:05:16.600 Trudeau and Daniel Smith both did that,
00:05:19.080 each in their own uniquely gutless ways,
00:05:22.260 and both returned home with bags of sweet fuck-all.
00:05:27.580 In Trudeau's case, he got marked as governor of the 51st state,
00:05:32.460 while Smith has been told, on a world stage no less,
00:05:35.260 that America doesn't need Canadian oil and gas.
00:05:38.200 And Justin and Danielle have been in a state of denial for weeks,
00:05:43.100 minimizing and denying the reality of what is happening.
00:05:48.060 They've got Trump-induced Stockholm Syndrome.
00:05:51.080 The reality, and that's what this week's show is about, is the reality.
00:05:55.500 The reality is this.
00:05:57.780 Trump is a thug and a bully, and his threats against us are not a joke.
00:06:02.720 He's going to move against us with more than words very soon.
00:06:07.760 That's why Doug Ford is going to have an election in which Donald Trump is the ballot question,
00:06:12.260 and in which Ford is going to win a bigger majority than before.
00:06:14.800 That's why Jean Chrétien wrote a wildly popular newspaper column
00:06:18.800 that declared Canadians will never give up on the best country in the world and join the U.S.
00:06:24.400 And that's why in the same week, Stephen Harper spoke to a U.S. podcaster
00:06:28.980 to say he has a real problem with Trump's attacks on us,
00:06:31.820 say that he's been shocked by Trump's anti-Canada rhetoric,
00:06:35.300 and to say that it does, this is a quote,
00:06:36.860 it doesn't sound to me like the pronouncements of somebody who's a friend, a partner, and an ally, end quote.
00:06:44.160 Which brings us back to where I started.
00:06:47.660 What is Donald Trump to Canadians?
00:06:50.220 What is America, which has been mostly silent about Trump's attacks on us,
00:06:56.800 like what is the best way to regard Trump now, because he's clearly not our friend?
00:07:03.020 He is the enemy.
00:07:04.260 And the sooner we accept that and act accordingly, the better off we'll be.
00:07:34.260 I hate running on this floor today.
00:07:42.460 I'm like a ride squad smoking on a Gatorade.
00:07:46.560 So hey, honey, why don't you flip my way?
00:07:49.260 Cause I'm feeling kind of cloudy, not a lot to say.
00:07:52.520 I got the feeling that I want to know.
00:07:59.720 There goes the feeling that I want to know.
00:08:04.780 I want to take the next plane that I seek to Tokyo.
00:08:12.180 And ask some other things that I am still yet to know.
00:08:15.300 I want to take the next plane that I seek to Tokyo.
00:08:18.240 And ask some other things that I am still yet to know.
00:08:21.960 I got the feeling that I want to know.
00:08:28.960 I got the feeling that I want to know.
00:08:33.960 There goes the feeling that I want to know.
00:08:40.960 There goes the feeling, the feeling I want to know.
00:08:53.420 And we're back.
00:09:20.640 We're back with our friend and colleague, Brian Lilly.
00:09:24.140 And we have so much to talk about this week.
00:09:25.980 But Brian, I wanted to start things off by talking about an interview that Pierre Polyev,
00:09:30.960 the leader of the Conservative Party, did with CTV Atlantic this week.
00:09:36.320 And it's not a long clip.
00:09:38.320 You've brought it to the attention of the world.
00:09:40.820 You certainly brought it to my attention.
00:09:42.260 I think it's really important people hear what Pierre Polyev says about how we should respond to Trump.
00:09:51.920 And I'm not going to prejudge it by saying what I think about it just yet.
00:09:55.120 But we'll just pause here for a second and play people that clip.
00:09:59.640 I'm sure you've heard it in this region about the potential impacts.
00:10:03.660 I'm wondering if you can tell our viewers one specific thing, if you were in power, that you would do to respond to those.
00:10:14.200 Well, I don't want to, if you don't mind, I'd like to list a few things.
00:10:17.500 One would obviously be...
00:10:18.620 The more you want to list, the better.
00:10:19.800 Thank you.
00:10:20.280 I think people would like to get some specifics about how we're going to tackle this.
00:10:22.880 Look, President Trump is a dealmaker.
00:10:24.760 He wants to win.
00:10:25.700 But we're both going to lose, as Americans and Canadians, if we get into a trade war.
00:10:31.680 So what I would say is, how do we position the decision for him so that he understands that America can only win if it allows open, unbridled free trade with Canada?
00:10:42.300 So I would retaliate, and I would target products and services that, A, we don't need, B, we can make ourself,
00:10:48.980 and C, that we can buy elsewhere so that we maximize impact on the Americans while minimizing impact on Canadians.
00:10:57.780 Secondly, I would pass an emergency bring-it-home tax cut on work, investment, making stuff in Canada, energy, home building,
00:11:08.180 so that we can stimulate more economic growth here.
00:11:12.580 Three, we need to become more self-sufficient.
00:11:14.960 That means knocking down barriers, more interprovincial free trade.
00:11:18.260 We have freer trade with the Americans today than we do with ourselves.
00:11:22.300 We have to knock down those barriers, build pipelines, LNG liquefaction facilities to sell our stuff to the world without having to go through the Americans.
00:11:31.780 If they're going to be an unreliable trade partner, we've got to find ways to sell more to ourselves and more to the rest of the world.
00:11:37.080 Do you see it as a dollar-for-dollar retaliation?
00:11:39.820 I would say so, yeah.
00:11:40.980 It has to hit hard.
00:11:41.860 And, again, we have to be very pinpoint and surgical to make sure we're maximizing impact on the American side while minimizing impact on our side.
00:11:51.800 You talk about self-reliance.
00:11:53.580 Have successive governments in Canada over the decades, of all stripes,
00:11:56.700 become too reliant, too comfortable with the notion that U.S. will always be our biggest trade partner, and they're always right there, and we really can put it on autopilot.
00:12:07.740 Yes, and we live next door to the biggest military and economic superpower the world has ever seen.
00:12:12.960 So a lot of our economics have just been based on enjoying, basking in that glow, but we can't rely on it.
00:12:21.420 And so, right now, according to StatsCan, we have about a 7% effective tariff on goods between provinces.
00:12:29.820 We remember the Como decision.
00:12:31.420 Some poor guy got fined because he brought alcohol from...
00:12:34.100 Northern New Brunswick.
00:12:34.960 Yes.
00:12:35.900 I think he was from northern New Brunswick to...
00:12:38.700 Quebec.
00:12:39.100 To Quebec.
00:12:39.580 Quebec, and we've got to knock down those barriers.
00:12:42.780 We have to approve resource projects that allow us to get our stuff to market without going through the states.
00:12:49.380 Right now, we are importing oil from the Americans and the Saudis in the east at world prices,
00:12:56.380 and we're selling it to the Americans at discounts in the west.
00:13:00.420 It's a crazy business model.
00:13:02.360 We need pipelines.
00:13:03.400 We need LNG plants.
00:13:04.560 We need to approve resource projects quickly so that we can become self-reliant and start making things here in Canada.
00:13:11.400 Okay.
00:13:12.060 Brian, why did you put that clip up on the internet on X and elsewhere?
00:13:20.260 Why did you think it was important that people hear what Pierre Polyev had to say?
00:13:24.260 Well, it started floating around in my feed on Saturday, and it was a nine-minute clip, and, you know, that's long for attention span folks who are just on X for quick news.
00:13:39.820 And I kept hearing, this is good.
00:13:41.420 This is good.
00:13:41.940 So I watched it.
00:13:42.720 Now, I posted a shorter version.
00:13:44.020 It's only about two to three minutes, but it's the most detailed, articulate plan that I've heard from any leader, federal or provincial, on how we should respond.
00:13:55.480 So, you know, we've heard, we'll do dollar-for-dollar tariffs.
00:13:58.600 We'll do this.
00:13:59.360 We'll do that.
00:14:00.780 But there's no detail.
00:14:02.760 Now, it's a TV interview, and Todd Battis said, can you tell me one thing that you'd do?
00:14:08.080 And then Pierre Polyev said, well, can I tell you more?
00:14:13.920 I mean, you heard Todd.
00:14:15.100 He sounded kind of surprised.
00:14:16.420 Any of us that do interviews would be a politician wants to tell me more.
00:14:20.060 All right, I'll take it.
00:14:22.200 But it was the fact that he, you know, how he described, yes, dollar-for-dollar retaliation, but not across the board.
00:14:31.400 Target things that we make here.
00:14:35.160 Target things that we can buy elsewhere.
00:14:36.840 Things that aren't necessary.
00:14:39.260 I'm not sure how you define that.
00:14:40.700 That's a tough one.
00:14:41.820 But things that we make here, things that we can buy elsewhere, that's good.
00:14:46.560 So, you know, in the middle of winter, we're not putting a huge tariff on fruits and vegetables that we buy from the U.S.
00:14:53.260 We rely on the U.S.
00:14:55.340 for a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables during the winter.
00:14:58.660 Or putting a big tariff on that, what would that do to families trying to feed themselves?
00:15:05.400 So it was a far better answer than I've heard anyone give.
00:15:09.200 And compare that to the prime minister.
00:15:11.620 The two most important things he did this week was show up to speak to reporters with his sweater on backwards.
00:15:18.040 And declare that we should stop buying Heinz ketchup because it's American-made when really it's just made down the street from his Montreal constituency office.
00:15:26.380 So, you know, Paliyev has not said a ton on this.
00:15:34.880 He was on an Atlantic Canada tour this week and we got to hear his plan now.
00:15:39.940 And so people said to you it was good and you agreed that it was good.
00:15:44.440 Why is it a good plan?
00:15:47.940 Why is it better than what others are saying?
00:15:50.380 Because of that surgical nature of it, we don't make as much as we could or should in this country.
00:16:00.900 We are not self-sufficient.
00:16:03.120 So you can't do the across the board.
00:16:04.900 But then he also started talking about the need for building infrastructure, pipelines, LNG, liquefaction planes, so that we can export LNG.
00:16:13.700 Those are things that you've been saying we need to be doing.
00:16:18.940 I've been saying we need to be doing.
00:16:21.680 You know, lots of people have advocated that for that over the years.
00:16:25.760 It's the exact opposite of what the current government has been doing.
00:16:30.120 And it's also the exact opposite of what Mark Carney has been advocating.
00:16:33.600 So, you know, we can't say that we want to be economically independent from the Americans and then just sell our number one product only to them.
00:16:47.260 I mean, pointing out that we're still importing oil from Saudi Arabia, the United States.
00:16:52.420 We're importing oil from Russia.
00:16:54.160 He didn't mention that.
00:16:55.160 But yet we have imported oil from Putin's Russia in the middle of the war because we can't move oil from east to west.
00:17:03.680 We can only move it south or a little bit can be moved to the west coast.
00:17:10.280 His tone was different.
00:17:12.380 I was really struck by that.
00:17:14.100 You know, the kind of stentorian, almost angry Pierre Polyev really was absent from that interview.
00:17:22.520 Even the short clip that I played, I think people heard that.
00:17:27.920 Were you struck by that as well?
00:17:29.660 It's a different Pierre Polyev.
00:17:31.940 But that's the Pierre Polyev that I know, that I keep telling people exist.
00:17:36.620 And so if other people can see it, then that's good because he's, you know, as I've mentioned before, he's someone I've known for 20 years.
00:17:45.480 He's someone who is thoughtful and articulate and smart.
00:17:53.060 But I understand that that's not how everyone sees him and it doesn't always come across.
00:17:57.800 So if more people see that, then that's good for him.
00:18:01.840 Yeah.
00:18:02.080 And he's talking to people without disclosing anything.
00:18:05.780 I've heard that he's been kind of reaching out to a broader circle in recent weeks, you know, because of all the dramatic changes that have taken place for our country and for the world.
00:18:18.120 And he's listening.
00:18:20.540 And I think it looks good on him.
00:18:23.400 So that's him.
00:18:25.160 And that's the Trump stuff.
00:18:26.940 And as you and I have been predicting, the tariffs are real.
00:18:30.320 It's not a joke.
00:18:31.300 It looks very much like it's going to hit in the next few days.
00:18:34.580 So that's how Polyev's been dealing with it.
00:18:36.800 How have Mark Carney, Krista Freeland, you know, the other liberal contenders, there's not many of them, how are they dealing with Trump?
00:18:44.240 And what do you think about their response to the threat that is coming our way?
00:18:52.640 Freeland has talked a couple times.
00:18:55.120 And she said, you know, move away from the carbon tax, move away from the capital gains tax.
00:19:00.220 So she is reversing herself.
00:19:02.940 Excuse me.
00:19:03.720 She's reversing her own policies that she advocated for for years.
00:19:09.360 Mark Carney has been trying to say as little as possible.
00:19:13.380 He only got asked questions the other day because he was going to an event in Ottawa.
00:19:18.740 And Conservative MP Michelle Rempel-Garner held a press conference on Spark Street, an impromptu Q&A with journalists and said, he's having a meeting somewhere along here.
00:19:31.800 And I think people should be asking questions because it looks like he's about to become prime minister.
00:19:36.220 Mark Carney was asked questions in your old hood of the beaches the other day, or the beach, as you say.
00:19:45.880 Reporters tried to ask him, you know, are you going to scrap the carbon tax?
00:19:49.900 Yes or no.
00:19:51.320 And he just said, you'll see in a week.
00:19:55.280 I mean, the guy is right.
00:19:57.580 Everyone has to get this through their heads.
00:19:59.120 It's not running for the liberal leadership.
00:20:00.840 Whoever wins becomes PM.
00:20:03.480 What policies are you going to do?
00:20:06.820 Mark Carney was part of, he was the leader of an organization called the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.
00:20:16.880 And then that was tied into other UN groups about net zero.
00:20:21.440 And he said time and again that we need to do a different type of banking.
00:20:29.500 One that would include not loaning money for oil and gas projects like the pipeline to bring Canadian oil and gas from east to west without going through the United States.
00:20:40.100 Like a project to build liquefied natural gas export terminals.
00:20:48.260 HSBC, one of the members of Carney's alliance, actually did that.
00:20:53.740 Thankfully, a bunch of the Canadian and American banks have backed out of that alliance.
00:20:57.440 You can be as green as you want to be, but to think that we can live without oil and gas right now is ridiculous.
00:21:07.060 Can we reduce how much we use the intensity?
00:21:10.240 Absolutely.
00:21:10.640 But it's going to be a while before we find something to replace this that's reliable and doesn't require setting up huge diesel generators to make the green part work, which we sometimes have done.
00:21:25.820 So, you know, I wrote during the week that Carney's exactly the wrong man for this period.
00:21:35.480 And because it, you know, the plans you and I are talking about require doing things that he has opposed for years.
00:21:45.800 And he's championed the exact opposite.
00:21:49.900 We need, you know, if we're going to have a liberal and John Manley was running, I would say, okay, fine, great.
00:21:55.520 But Mark Carney is more of the same and he's got Trudeau's whole cabinet lining up behind him.
00:22:00.780 So why is that happening?
00:22:01.940 Why is he, why has he become the anointed one?
00:22:04.740 Why do they think they can win with him in light of everything you've just said?
00:22:08.140 Because people don't look at policy like you and I do.
00:22:13.920 You know that better than me.
00:22:15.800 You know, people are instinctive.
00:22:18.400 They're emotional.
00:22:20.000 That's voting is an instinctive and emotional exercise.
00:22:23.360 And to look at Carney and say, he looks good.
00:22:26.060 All right.
00:22:26.980 Oh, he's a banker.
00:22:28.200 Oh, great.
00:22:29.120 Yeah.
00:22:29.300 Put him in.
00:22:31.140 Like there's a world where Carney could win an election.
00:22:35.340 Even if the liberals don't hold off until October, there's a world where he could go in and win.
00:22:43.360 And I mean win, not just hold Paulieff to a minority.
00:22:48.860 So that's why they think they can win.
00:22:51.380 That and Trudeau and the team around him are just still so furious at Christian Freeland.
00:22:58.060 They see him as, or they see her as having stabbed him in the back.
00:23:04.240 She's the traitor.
00:23:05.340 Yeah.
00:23:05.900 Yeah.
00:23:06.380 And so they're running an anybody but Freeland campaign.
00:23:09.440 Now I've had some liberals working with or near the Freeland campaign saying between Carney's arrogance and all these people that are around Trudeau lining up behind Carney, they think the grassroots of the party, such as they are, will turn to Freeland.
00:23:27.120 I'm not sure I'd buy that.
00:23:28.560 But it's the riding by riding 100 point system now, preferential ballot.
00:23:33.820 Yeah.
00:23:34.260 Which is why, and as you always say, voters are fickle and polls change and we're going to put it on a t-shirt.
00:23:42.220 But you and I were on a panel with our editor Adrian Batcher this week and you kind of knocked me off my chair when you said, and I hadn't heard you say it before, what you just said a minute ago, which is liberals could win.
00:23:56.600 And that's something that I hadn't considered.
00:24:00.380 And then I saw a little bit of some tabs from an abacus survey.
00:24:06.600 David, our former colleague, David Coletto is in field right now showing if the question he asked was who, which party's best to deal with Trump?
00:24:15.560 Which party's the best to deal with Trump?
00:24:18.360 And for the first time in a year and a half, the Liberal Party was ahead of the Conservative Party on something.
00:24:25.260 Not by a lot.
00:24:26.360 31 to 29.
00:24:27.980 Not by a lot, but ahead.
00:24:30.780 That, I think, is where this election is going to go.
00:24:33.520 So final question, is that a campaign that you think the Liberal Party under Mark Carney can win?
00:24:42.760 Yeah.
00:24:43.380 Yeah, I think they could.
00:24:45.560 My worry is that it would just become a campaign about nationalism, which, again, I'll point out the irony of a party that has decided that we are a horrible, genocidal state built upon white supremacy suddenly embracing nationalism, which, by the way, they also said nationalism was bad, patriotism's bad.
00:25:06.020 The whole campaign will be about that.
00:25:07.620 And not trying to find a solution to the trade irritants that we have.
00:25:18.900 Donald Trump said again on the weekend, I think it was Friday, Canada's been really nasty to us on trade.
00:25:26.220 And I saw a bunch of people on X scoffing, oh, how can he say that?
00:25:29.900 And I said, okay, well, what are his trade irritants?
00:25:32.480 And I looked up, and this is not from Trump, it's from the Congressional Research Office, which is nonpartisan.
00:25:39.100 It supplies basic research to Democrat and Republican members of Congress, House and Senate.
00:25:44.400 The Tribal Liberals have passed three of the big trade irritants in the last couple of years, the Online Streaming Act, the Online News Act, and the Digital Services Tax.
00:25:56.240 And the Biden administration has complained vociferously about all three, and Trump will be doing the same.
00:26:01.840 They target the tech industry.
00:26:03.260 So my worry is that we're a very protectionist country, complaining about Donald Trump trying to bring in protectionism.
00:26:16.480 And we need to find leaders that will actually deal with the issues and find a solution rather than just chest thumping.
00:26:25.080 And I think we're headed to an election where people plump chests and insult the guy who can put on or take off the tariffs at will, and that we're in for a world of hurt.
00:26:37.320 Which brings us back to where we started this segment.
00:26:40.860 So I encourage everybody to seek out the full segment of the interview that Paulie outdid with CTV Atlantic, which our friend Brian Lilly has brought to our attention.
00:26:50.600 So, sir, thank you for that.
00:26:53.060 Thank you for your insight and wisdom, as always.
00:26:55.100 Have a great day and a great week.
00:26:57.040 Talk soon.
00:26:57.420 Talk soon.
00:26:57.440 Talk soon.
00:27:27.440 Talk soon.
00:27:32.940 Talk soon.
00:27:35.020 Talk soon.
00:27:36.000 Talk soon.
00:27:53.800 Talk soon.
00:27:55.620 Talk soon.
00:27:56.740 Talk soon.
00:27:56.860 I know who you pretend I am
00:28:02.400 I know who you pretend I am
00:28:06.180 But don't me, T-Y
00:28:11.500 Not me, why
00:28:16.660 Not me
00:28:19.180 Don't me, T-Y
00:28:25.420 Not me, why
00:28:30.260 Not me
00:28:32.760 Don't me, T-Y
00:28:39.180 Not me, why
00:28:43.760 Not me
00:28:55.420 And we're back, we're back with John Mraz and John, you know, well here, I'm going to confess a mistake.
00:29:11.380 As I think you may recall, when Trump won the Electoral College with a few hundred thousand more votes than Kamala Harris, I thought that the Americans would turn inward.
00:29:26.380 I thought that's what he had a mandate to do, is they become protectionist and focused on themselves and less interested in the world.
00:29:36.680 Well, as it's turned out, I was wrong.
00:29:39.080 He's quite interested in taking Panama by force, Greenland by force, Canada by economic force.
00:29:47.040 Are people right to be anxious about all of this stuff?
00:29:52.600 I remember when Putin started building tens of thousands of troops, you know, putting them in Belarus and along the border in the north of Ukraine, that the world wanted to believe that he would never, ever, because there was no common sense in it, invade Ukraine.
00:30:09.840 But he did. And it seems to me that America, having fought in Korea, Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, those are the big wars since the Second World War, and it was invested in dozens of proxy wars along the way.
00:30:23.840 What do they get for it? They get earth manufacturing, some domestic economy, but the resources are always in play after the fact, and the long game never works.
00:30:33.560 So maybe what Trump meant when he said that he would pull America away from war is that he would target to build an economic region so large that they were untouchable by anybody.
00:30:46.180 He would build a block of countries that couldn't defend themselves.
00:30:49.900 And that seems to be what he was saying to an American audience at one of his infernal rallies last night, that, you know, when I get through, folks, the United States is going to be a bigger place.
00:31:07.900 It's going to have more territory. It's going to have more geography than ever before.
00:31:13.560 You know, I think you and I and others, Brian Nilley, have been observing over the past few weeks, where you had people kind of insisting this is all a joke, and it couldn't possibly be true, like Conrad Black or what have you.
00:31:27.460 And now, obviously, we're just days away from 25% tariffs, and he's been talking about taking Canada, making us the 51st state, every single day for weeks.
00:31:40.600 What do we as a country need to be doing, let's say, as a people first, to deal with this existential threat?
00:31:52.160 I ask myself that question every day.
00:31:54.500 We have domestic political voices that are arguing at federal level, at leadership levels, at provincial levels about what we should do to secure ourselves economically so his sanctions don't break us.
00:32:10.600 The problem is the simple math of the American economy, being the size it is.
00:32:16.440 They can take a punishment that we cannot.
00:32:20.380 They have a base in Texas that has more people at arms than our entire armed forces.
00:32:27.480 They are completely depending on the fact that China or Russia would never dare try and protect us,
00:32:33.820 and the EU, who have already become, in a way, an economic empire, competing with the United States,
00:32:40.540 are far too busy dealing with Russia to help Canada or Greenland or Panama.
00:32:45.380 And by the way, Panama, I always assume, you take Panama and then you just chunk your way north all the way to the top of the Mexican border.
00:32:53.600 Why not take it all, Oceania?
00:32:55.180 So, who's going to stop them?
00:32:59.260 The question is, will the military and diplomatic and intelligence columns in the United States obey his order,
00:33:07.500 which would be internationally illegal, constitutionally, I think.
00:33:12.960 Anyway, point being, we keep on thinking Donald Trump can't get elected, couldn't get away with all the things he has.
00:33:20.640 We keep on thinking Russia will not continue to try and expand, or China will not continue to try and fuck with our elections.
00:33:27.600 Everybody is doing exactly the worst thing that we imagine they could.
00:33:33.080 So, it's become more and more clear to me that there's a very good chance that Donald Trump doesn't give a shit
00:33:38.780 who's in charge of the prime minister's office, who wins a leadership campaign.
00:33:43.760 He has openly said he doesn't care for Polio.
00:33:46.100 He doesn't care for anybody who's here in our political forum.
00:33:51.920 And that's what I said on CFRA this morning.
00:33:55.360 Basically, what you just said is that we're in that period, which we've seen many times throughout human history,
00:34:01.800 where you get people just kind of going, well, this couldn't possibly be happening, and it happens.
00:34:07.060 Well, that couldn't happen, and it happens.
00:34:09.400 You know, the principal advisor, the President of the United States, making Nazi salutes, making Holocaust jokes,
00:34:17.140 and then appearing before a neo-Nazi party and saying we need to forget about the sins of the past on the eve of Holocaust Remembrance Day.
00:34:26.840 Like, all these things are actually happening in real time, as the elf lords say.
00:34:33.440 And so, you know, that's my advice to people.
00:34:37.220 It's like, I know, as depressing as it is, you can't deny the reality of it.
00:34:41.300 What then do our governments need to do?
00:34:43.880 Justin Trudeau is checked out.
00:34:46.020 I think I've told you he's apparently building a place in Costa Rica and is going to disappear from the stage for a while,
00:34:52.200 which is probably prudent for him to do so.
00:34:54.140 You are, just so everybody knows, helping out one of the liberal leadership candidates.
00:35:00.720 But, you know, maybe the liberal leadership candidates don't matter.
00:35:05.040 Maybe Paliyev doesn't matter.
00:35:06.440 Who Prime Minister is doesn't matter.
00:35:08.860 But, like, at the national level, the people we count on to respond to the threat that Trump poses,
00:35:17.340 like, what do you think we should be doing there?
00:35:19.560 It seems to me that the right politician for Canada right now would be one that builds an economic consortium
00:35:27.000 with the EU, Asian entities, an archipelago, if you will, of free, open, quasi-capitalistic states around the world.
00:35:40.520 If Trump started to sanction Canada or go for Greenland or try and take Panama would, in concert, be able to sanction the United States so severely that they would stop.
00:35:53.900 And that means, unlike the Allies, like, you're going to have to call China up in India and say,
00:36:01.240 hey, let's create a block, a BRICS, if you will, a new BRICS as a response to the idea of American manifest destiny in Germany,
00:36:13.060 which is what he's all about, right?
00:36:15.040 Isn't it amazing that we're talking about that?
00:36:18.280 Like, you're not the only person, and I can hear some of my readers saying,
00:36:21.920 I can't believe John is talking about, you know, China, but you're not the only one doing it.
00:36:28.980 Like, there have been some serious people in the past few days saying,
00:36:32.860 we need to re-examine the relationship with China in order to offset the economic pain that's coming our way from the United States.
00:36:40.880 And all of that happening in the context of Madam Justice Hogue about to release her report about foreign interference and the liberal leadership.
00:36:49.240 Like, it's just, it's, I think conservatives are crazy to think that the Liberal Party would agree to have an election right now.
00:36:57.360 Like, I don't understand, maybe you can explain it to me.
00:37:00.260 Why do conservatives think that we as a country would be served by being leaderless in the middle of an election campaign in all of this stuff going on?
00:37:10.160 How does that benefit us?
00:37:11.780 Am I missing something?
00:37:13.820 I think the better question, the more absurd question is,
00:37:16.780 why would any opposition party want an election until the existing government had worked this out for better or worse,
00:37:26.000 so they didn't have to wear it?
00:37:27.800 Bingo.
00:37:28.900 Bingo.
00:37:29.720 No, absolutely.
00:37:30.320 Although, Pauliev, the discussion I had earlier today with Brian Lilly, I started the segment with a clip,
00:37:40.200 I don't know if you've seen it yet, Pauliev speaking to CTV Atlantic with Todd Battis.
00:37:45.960 And man, it was really good.
00:37:48.400 It was reassuring, because he's obviously accepted that the Trump threat is real,
00:37:53.940 and he's got a bit of a plan to deal with it.
00:37:57.500 It was more detailed than I've heard from a federal leader in quite some time,
00:38:00.960 so I encourage you to check it out.
00:38:02.940 Final thing, and again, you know, you're working and helping to run one of the liberal leadership campaigns,
00:38:09.120 but one thing I draw to your attention, I caught it late last night,
00:38:16.940 David Coletto, who you know, the head of Abacus, a very fine polling agency,
00:38:22.480 came out with a little bit of data last night saying the question he asked people was,
00:38:29.540 which party is best to deal with Trump, given the crisis that's unfolding all around us?
00:38:35.260 And for the first time ever, John, it showed the Liberal Party of Canada
00:38:40.100 headed the Conservative Party on something, not by a lot, it was like two or three points, but ahead.
00:38:45.620 Is that the path of salvation for the Liberal Party?
00:38:49.580 No, I think that the excellent Liberal Party and the excellent Conservative Party
00:38:53.140 are irrelevant to this conversation.
00:38:55.220 And I'm going to go back to the beginning of our conversation.
00:38:57.800 We need a leader with international acumen who can immediately and effectively create
00:39:03.860 an economic international consortium that sanctions the United States if they have to so quickly
00:39:10.960 and so effectively that the punishment of the United States is greater than the benefit
00:39:15.180 of neocolonial imperialism in Canada, Greenland, and of course, Panama.
00:39:23.160 Well, just quite a time we live in.
00:39:27.960 Next week, you and I will be talking about this stuff possibly quite differently,
00:39:33.020 because next week the tariffs are supposed to hit.
00:39:36.560 Next Saturday, February the 1st.
00:39:38.700 So I guess we'll all wait to see what happens then.
00:39:41.640 But in the meantime, John Mraz, thank you very much for your insight and your views.
00:39:45.920 Thank you.
00:39:46.300 Thanks for having me.
00:39:48.080 Aito Aito.
00:39:48.600 Aito Aito Aito
00:40:18.580 Feeling
00:40:20.680 That confounds me
00:40:23.400 Life is
00:40:25.780 So demanding
00:40:27.900 Showing me
00:40:30.520 Some understanding
00:40:32.840 Cuffs and collar
00:40:35.640 Bleeding on the ground
00:40:37.420 Cuffs and collar
00:40:40.460 Leading me around
00:40:42.180 Bleeding
00:40:47.240 Cuffs and collar
00:40:50.560 Bleeding on the ground
00:40:51.760 Cuffs and collar
00:41:00.440 Bleeding on the ground
00:41:08.560 Touched and clawed, bleeding on the ground
00:41:13.420 Touched and clawed, bleeding on the ground
00:41:18.220 Touched and clawed, bleeding on the ground
00:41:23.020 Give it up
00:41:38.560 Touched and clawed, bleeding on the ground
00:42:03.880 Touched and clawed, bleeding on the ground
00:42:08.560 We'll be right back.
00:42:38.560 This is CFRA Live Sunday Political Panel.
00:43:08.560 Also an author, Tasha, good morning.
00:43:11.820 Hello.
00:43:12.880 So it's tough to even know where to begin here, but it's kind of that we're in Groundhog Day.
00:43:17.960 We're having the same kind of conversations over and over again.
00:43:20.300 But, you know, Donald Trump appearing with the World Economic Forum this week and, you know, doubling down on the tariff threat again, banting about whether or not Canada should be the 51st state.
00:43:28.900 So kind of directly pushing back on the retaliatory tariffs that we've kind of talked about here, at least publicly, both the Premier of Ontario and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
00:43:38.060 But I suppose is this from the perspective of does this change anything, I guess, in how Canada approaches this, Tasha?
00:43:45.640 Or is this all just more noise and we kind of stay focused on the goal, which I guess is now February 1st?
00:43:50.640 Well, I think the government at least has a plan.
00:43:54.960 Whether it's the right one or not remains to be seen.
00:43:57.080 It's got three phases of tariffs.
00:43:59.660 And meanwhile, you know, Donald Trump continues to say we should be the 51st state.
00:44:04.800 Greenland should be part of the U.S.
00:44:06.220 And the Gaza Strip should, I don't know, presumably have a Trump Hotel on it when they finish redoing it because everyone should move to Egypt and Jordan and it'll, I guess, be a resort town then after.
00:44:14.920 I don't know.
00:44:15.560 I mean, it gets crazier by the day.
00:44:18.960 And so I think we do have to stay focused.
00:44:21.260 I think that's the key in this storm is that if we don't, if we scatter, we're done.
00:44:27.580 And this is why it's very important that all premiers be on board.
00:44:31.780 And, you know, Daniel Smith is still complaining that, you know, well, everyone was freelancing, so what do you expect?
00:44:37.520 I have to defend Alberta.
00:44:38.560 And I get it.
00:44:39.040 She has to defend her interests and Alberta's interests.
00:44:42.400 But at the same time, if we don't hang together, you know, that's the danger is that while the world swirls around and Trump says more things every single day about something else, maybe he'll get distracted and forget about it.
00:44:56.620 I don't know.
00:44:57.140 But we have to just stay focused.
00:44:59.160 I think that's the key thing.
00:45:00.700 And, Carl, it's this weird space we find ourselves in, right, where you want to ignore some of the more, you know, for lack of a better word, off the beaten path type stuff.
00:45:10.060 But you can't.
00:45:11.100 He's the most powerful man in the world.
00:45:12.300 And he has talked about, you know, Canada and our economy.
00:45:15.020 And is there a balance here?
00:45:16.600 How do you ignore him without ignoring him, I suppose?
00:45:19.660 Yeah, it's kind of an impossible mission to do because, you know, as president of the United States, anything he says has consequences.
00:45:27.720 And, you know, other countries are listening and they're taking their lead from that.
00:45:33.480 And other, you know, officials in the states are also taking their lead from that.
00:45:37.540 And, you know, unfortunately, you have to deal with the consequences.
00:45:40.780 Now, there's a glimmer of hope, I would say, is that public opinion is opposed to these tariffs in the United States.
00:45:48.960 And the fact that Donald Trump has not realized that yet is puzzling.
00:45:54.720 But most Americans are opposed to it.
00:45:56.740 And they're opposed to it because they know that if there are tariffs imposed, they will have to pay more for goods.
00:46:01.960 And they don't want that.
00:46:03.020 And, in fact, it goes contrary to what Donald Trump himself promised during the campaign, which was, you know, reducing the cost of living, reducing the cost of gas, reducing the cost of goods.
00:46:14.260 And so the resistance, really, for Donald Trump to change his mind, I mean, Canada will do what it does and other countries will do what they do.
00:46:22.300 But the resistance needs to come from the American public and the American officials.
00:46:26.740 And it needs to come from the American Republican Party.
00:46:29.780 So far, in that party, there's not enough dissenting voice because, you know, he's entered the famous honeymoon phase of his political career, just being elected, just being sworn in.
00:46:43.320 And it'll take a few weeks, it'll take a few months, but the tide will turn because these tariffs are not good public policy, not for Canada and not for the United States.
00:46:53.140 And, Warren, kind of similarly, you see a lot of similarities in how he's been dealing with Greenland as well with the threat of tariffs and then, you know, the possibility of a takeover here.
00:47:00.820 We saw a bizarre phone call this week.
00:47:02.880 From your perspective, like I was saying about, how do you take it seriously at the same time as listening to some of this stuff?
00:47:09.460 Well, we have to take it seriously.
00:47:12.640 And history has taught us we can't turn away, you know, we can't turn on the TV and just pretend that what's taking place in the world around us isn't happening.
00:47:25.600 Like the principal advisor to the most powerful man on earth has this week given a Nazi salute, made jokes about the Holocaust.
00:47:34.620 By the way, it's Holocaust Remembrance Day tomorrow, given a platform on social media for neo-Nazis and white supremacists, and then appeared before a neo-Nazi party in Germany saying, forget the lessons of the past.
00:47:49.060 Those are the people he's listening to.
00:47:51.280 Meanwhile, Trump is giving speeches, as he did yesterday, just yesterday, saying that the United States of America is about to become bigger, with more territory, more territory than ever before.
00:48:04.100 Every single day for the past three weeks, he has been talking about his territorial designs, his expansionism on Canada.
00:48:13.380 It's real. It's real. The tariffs are real. His expansionism is real.
00:48:21.000 And we cannot just, you know, turn on the TV and descend into some other place and pretend it's not happening.
00:48:27.740 This stuff is happening. The president of Poland this morning on X, ironically, is talking about what they do in Europe about U.S. troops landing on their soil to go after Denmark and Greenland.
00:48:42.060 Like, all of these things are actually happening.
00:48:45.540 And it amazes me, the number of people I know, and I know people are scared, they're anxious, are turning away and saying, this can't possibly be happening.
00:48:54.960 Well, in history, we've all seen what happens when you take that approach.
00:49:00.380 We've all seen what happens when you say that it's not real. It's real.
00:49:05.100 I wanted to throw in the point there that Poland and Greenland both, or I guess the Danes, are NATO members as well.
00:49:14.340 The other issue on this, tariffs too.
00:49:16.620 Tasha, I wanted to mention this because you wrote about this this week, is, you know, we've been facing this, you know, imminent economic threat because of tariffs.
00:49:22.900 But you were also writing this week about how the Trump agenda might actually hurt our economy in general away from tariffs.
00:49:27.980 Just a little bit on that.
00:49:29.000 Well, yes, because it's got two other elements to it that people really haven't focused on.
00:49:35.280 And the first is energy, of course.
00:49:37.440 You know, the U.S. is our biggest customer.
00:49:40.300 They've been buying our oil at a discount, 4 million barrels a day.
00:49:44.660 Donald Trump is talking about ramping up production, 3 million barrels a day.
00:49:48.180 And if the U.S. is either going to saturate the market, that brings down prices.
00:49:55.340 If it's going to become energy self-sufficient, quote, unquote, that will depress prices for us, maybe make our oil less necessary.
00:50:04.060 So we're facing less revenue as a country.
00:50:07.740 And, you know, Alberta can be all upset that it says that it's not going to be able to send its oil if there's tariffs or if we don't allow the oil, you know, to cross the border.
00:50:19.200 Like, I mean, the problem is they may end up not buying it anyway down the road.
00:50:24.080 We're buying it really cheap.
00:50:25.400 And then Alberta's economy collapses, too.
00:50:27.440 So that is one of the big things that we have to worry about.
00:50:30.700 And the second is the U.S. is changing a lot of its policies, specifically around diversity, equity, and inclusion.
00:50:36.320 And this has been happening for the past six months, even before Trump takes office.
00:50:40.360 Major companies, Walmart, McDonald's, John Deere, I mean, all sectors, they have been junking their DEI policies because they knew when Trump came in, he would basically, by fiat, junk them for the entire government.
00:50:52.320 And they don't want to be on the wrong side of that.
00:50:54.280 And plus, I think also DEI has been shown a lot of its application does not benefit either the bottom line or morale often within companies.
00:51:02.700 It actually divides a lot of people more than it unites.
00:51:05.640 So the opposition that has been building for a while, how is that going to affect Canada?
00:51:10.400 Because we have a lot of companies here that also follow the DEI line.
00:51:14.380 Are they going to have to, you know, change their policies?
00:51:17.060 And if they don't, are people who are not on board with it going to go to the states?
00:51:21.340 Are we going to see a brain drain of people saying, you know what, I'm just, I'm tired of dealing with some of these issues here.
00:51:26.700 I have more opportunity in the U.S.
00:51:28.860 And it's funny, since I wrote my column, I've actually had emails from people saying, yeah, my kids are leaving because of this.
00:51:35.100 I know people going to the states because of that.
00:51:37.840 I was shocked.
00:51:38.860 I didn't expect to get a response immediately.
00:51:41.640 But I'm not completely surprised.
00:51:45.020 And we can't afford more of a brain drain than we already do have in terms of talent and money to the states.
00:51:50.900 So how are we going to respond to that?
00:51:53.000 It's going to be a challenge for our companies and our institutions as well.
00:51:56.220 Yeah.
00:51:56.400 And I just wanted to mention that as well, because as you mentioned, not just tariffs, there is some other issues and aspects on this as well.
00:52:02.580 And if people wanted to read that, they can read that in the National Post from this week as well.
00:52:05.900 Also to mention, just we've been talking about Danielle Smith.
00:52:07.700 She is coming up on CTV this morning on Question Period of Fashion Capellos after 11 o'clock.
00:52:11.860 So I'm sure she'll have some interesting things to say as well.
00:52:14.500 So I guess just one more on this whole point, I guess, Warren, from your perspective, when we're talking about leadership, I've got a lot of texts and complaints.
00:52:21.780 And, of course, we're in a very partisan time.
00:52:24.100 But, you know, questioning whether or not Justin Trudeau is the leader at this time to be leading us in this very moment with these tariff threats on the way he's going out the door.
00:52:32.740 Or is there any issue right now with you see that Justin Trudeau is standing in the way of making progress on this issue, other than just politically for himself?
00:52:40.320 He's gone.
00:52:41.300 You know, he's building a cabin in Costa Rica, I'm told, or something like that.
00:52:45.900 He's gone.
00:52:47.220 So right now we're in a period of auditioning his replacement, who we're going to hire to take over.
00:52:54.120 And, you know, all of the liberal leadership candidates have said stuff about the existential threat we're facing from Trump and about, you know, the challenges we face in the country.
00:53:07.860 PolyEv does that all the time.
00:53:10.680 The exposure, and Abacus is just doing some polling right now about this issue, and they released a little bit of it last night.
00:53:19.060 If the question is, who's the best person to, or political party, rather, to deal with the Trump threat, the liberal party comes out ahead.
00:53:30.300 That's the first time the liberal party's come out ahead on anything in the past year and a half.
00:53:36.240 And that is the threat to PolyEv, is we're sitting here, you know, doing a job interview with him.
00:53:42.440 Are you the right guy to deal with what we are going to be facing as a nation in the months and years ahead?
00:53:50.780 And the problem that PolyEv has got is there's a suspicion that Canadian voters have got that maybe a third of his caucus and certainly a third of his membership support Trump and like Trump and defend Trump.
00:54:06.860 And that is lethal for PolyEv.
00:54:09.960 If that perception continues to grow and take hold, and believe me, Mark Carney, who's going to be the next liberal leader, is going to hold on to it like his life depends on it, because his life does depend on it.
00:54:22.300 PolyEv is in big, big trouble.
00:54:24.760 Now, I'm not saying he's going to lose the election, but he might lose his majority.
00:54:30.380 And at that point, he's dead man walking.
00:54:32.640 He knows, and all of us have heard this internally, his people know it's a majority or nothing, because they would have a, you know, life expectancy of just a few, few months if they get a minority.
00:54:44.900 The liberals and the NDP will, and the bloc will come together to take them out.
00:54:48.600 He has to get a majority, and the big threat, the threat is with him.
00:54:52.920 That is the problem he's got, is his own people.
00:54:55.780 And Carl, we've been talking about Pierre Polyev, as Warren mentioned here, and we did hear a little bit more from some policy perspective this week on a couple of different issues.
00:55:05.100 Finally saying that, you know, he would go dollar for dollar in terms of retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. as well.
00:55:11.400 It seems like he is trying to stay away from the spotlight in some ways on this particular issue, but do you think he made any ground this week in at least kind of laying down a little bit more of a policy platform?
00:55:20.460 Well, I think if the numbers that Warren is referring to are true, I think Pierre Polyev and his team knows that it is a threat, and therefore they're starting to play defense with this issue.
00:55:33.560 Because he's said a few things over the past few weeks about this, but he is not trying to attract the spotlight.
00:55:40.880 He's not trying to be the top news item on this issue.
00:55:47.380 But, you know, whether he says fighting fire with fire or going dollar for dollar, these are the kind of things that Canadians want to hear from their leader.
00:55:55.560 And there's a reason why Doug Ford is about to go to the polls, because he took a lead, and people are rewarding him with support.
00:56:01.580 And he's been labeled across the country as Captain Canada, filling the vacuum left by Justin Trudeau.
00:56:07.500 So there is an opportunity there, but for that you need to be public, and you need to be pretty forward about what you want to do.
00:56:15.160 And so Polyev realized that there's a bit of a vacuum here on the conservative front.
00:56:21.280 At the same time, you know, it's unclear when you look at a different conservative position on dealing with Trump that we have.
00:56:29.640 I mean, you compare Daniel Smith with Doug Ford and then with Pierre Polyev.
00:56:33.280 Like, what is the actual conservative position on this?
00:56:36.380 Like, it's all over the place, and I think that's part of the problem for Pierre Polyev is that he doesn't have a fully united party behind him on this issue and how to handle Donald Trump.
00:56:49.860 Because, as Warren outlined, there's a bunch of people in this party that actually like Trump, that would vote for Trump, that support Trump.
00:56:56.820 In fact, except for Max and Bernie's party, if it ever exists anymore, no other party in this country supports Trump more than the conservative party of Canada.
00:57:08.360 Fantastic.
00:57:08.980 You know, all of that being said, does that actually make even more sense that Pierre Polyev would perhaps be, you know, a little bit quieter right now, even as he's, you know, pulling for an election here?
00:57:17.360 Well, it is a sea change.
00:57:22.080 I watched the interview that Pierre Polyev gave to CTV Atlantic about the tariffs and what he would do, and it was a different Pierre Polyev and not as comfortable, I felt, with the subject matter as when he is attacking traditionally the liberal government.
00:57:37.960 Because this is a very different situation.
00:57:39.560 He had, it's not about attacking, it's about proposing, it's about saying what you would do as prime minister to deal with an existential threat to your country, not about internal threat, not changing, you know, tax policy on carbon, not changing housing policy because the liberals screwed it up.
00:57:55.320 This is, how would I deal with an existential threat to my country and coming up with a better plan than the other guy?
00:58:02.620 And his plan is the same as what the liberals are doing.
00:58:04.560 He's saying we're going to impose tariffs on selected things that will hurt the Americans but not hurt us.
00:58:08.700 That's exactly what we did back in 2018.
00:58:11.140 That's exactly what we'll do again.
00:58:12.380 You don't have to drink bourbon.
00:58:14.220 You know, we love orange juice, but you can live without it for a while or pay, you know, drink less because it's more expensive.
00:58:20.280 There's things there that we can hit the Americans on that will cause pain.
00:58:24.800 And that's exactly what this government, so he's saying the same thing as what the government's going to do, which is, you know, which is not where he wants to be as differentiating himself and saying I'm the guy to take them on.
00:58:35.480 And the second thing I thought was, you're right, there are people within the caucus.
00:58:40.780 I mean, Jamil Giovanni, one of his MPs, is a friend of J.D. Vance from college.
00:58:45.680 There's always been a higher number of conservatives that did support the Republicans under Trump.
00:58:50.600 So you are dealing with an internal split, and then there's Alberta.
00:58:55.100 And as I've said, you know, Pierre Polyev is the Nixon who could go to Alberta, the Nixon to go to China.
00:59:00.140 He'd go to Alberta and say, guys, let's get on board.
00:59:03.140 Let's be part of the Team Canada.
00:59:04.380 We have to do this because it's in the national interest.
00:59:07.300 He's not doing that because he knows that the people within his own party would get very angry with him, and they're the same base as Alberta.
00:59:14.800 It's very tricky for the conservatives right now.
00:59:17.880 So I think the best may not be that he has an election immediately when we're having this threat going on, but, you know, we'll see.
00:59:27.460 But also the longer it goes on, then that could be out for the conservatives, too.
00:59:31.040 So it's changed the game 100 percent.
00:59:33.880 And just, I guess, last thing on the Polyev interview from this week, I guess, Warren, I'll ask you just on this sense of you guys have been in the Ottawa bubble, obviously,
00:59:40.620 and you understand that it does exist in many ways.
00:59:43.320 So we heard about public sector cuts, possible public service cuts this week, and, you know, locally that becomes an issue here.
00:59:49.320 But I'm wondering, you know, Warren, outside of the Ottawa bubble, is that a net positive for the conservatives?
00:59:53.960 We look at the deficit that we're facing right now.
00:59:57.660 He's talking about reining in spending.
00:59:59.600 Outside of places like Ottawa, does something like that actually resonate with, you know, the average Canadian?
01:00:04.780 Yeah, in a way that is not sympathetic.
01:00:09.660 Yeah.
01:00:09.840 And that will be particularly the case.
01:00:12.660 If Ford is right and that we're going to lose a half a million jobs in Ontario because of Trump's tariffs,
01:00:22.080 well, I can't use the word on air, but the rest of the country is not going to give you know what about public servants losing their jobs in Ottawa.
01:00:31.480 That place is, again, like all these events are conspiring against, you know, Polyev, as Tasha just pointed out.
01:00:40.300 It's like he's, you know, he's gone to the movies and he's coming out and going, wow, that isn't the movie I was expecting to see.
01:00:48.300 Like everything's changing under his feet.
01:00:50.980 And this would be an example of that because he represents an Ottawa riding.
01:00:57.200 You know, he's got a lot of public servants in his riding.
01:01:00.860 And what does he say about that?
01:01:03.060 I don't think he was expecting something like this either.
01:01:06.440 So, like, we live, unfortunately, in interesting times where all of the things we thought we'd be talking about in 2025 aren't the things that we're talking about.
01:01:16.920 Yeah, go figure.
01:01:18.880 And, yeah, liberal leadership race, yeah, I think just for time we'll kind of skip over this.
01:01:23.440 I don't think there's anything incredibly interesting to talk about this week.
01:01:27.060 We have people in the race, of course.
01:01:28.500 The deadline has passed.
01:01:29.320 But I wanted to get time to talk about this election call from Doug Ford because, obviously, this is huge political news this week, I guess.
01:01:35.760 Tasha, is this kind of a no-brainer given the position that Doug Ford is in in the polls right now?
01:01:39.560 Or is there, you know, a concern that he could pull a David Peterson at some point?
01:01:44.600 Well, no, I mean, I think he'll be re-elected.
01:01:47.840 I don't think we need – do we need an election right now?
01:01:49.840 No, we don't need an election in Ontario.
01:01:51.900 Nobody – I mean, this is – it's to consolidate power for the next four years.
01:01:56.700 It's absolutely, you know, naked political opportunism.
01:02:00.100 He doesn't need another mandate from people.
01:02:02.340 To do what exactly?
01:02:03.880 You know, he's still got over a year on the clock to run out.
01:02:08.660 So it's absurd.
01:02:10.920 But we're going to have this election because he knows the opposition is divided.
01:02:14.300 People are divided.
01:02:14.980 The liberals and the NDP.
01:02:15.960 The liberals have not made the breakthrough that they would have needed to, I think, to really be a threat.
01:02:21.940 So that's why we're having an election.
01:02:24.300 And I think he will be handily re-elected because by the time he's also there – this is the thing with, you know, the tariffs may come in on the 1st of February.
01:02:33.700 He's Captain Canada.
01:02:35.000 Like, it all works in his favor.
01:02:36.600 As opposed to Polyev, this works actually for him.
01:02:39.620 Yeah, everything is seemingly kind of coming together at once.
01:02:42.180 Carl, you know, a couple of Ford supporters – you know, a couple of things on the text board the last couple of days.
01:02:45.860 Just hearing about the cost of this election is, like, fiscal conservatives, they're upset about that.
01:02:49.400 So there is some consternation out there.
01:02:51.160 But do you think there's enough of a pushback here that Doug Ford is at serious risk of losing a majority government?
01:02:57.780 Well, you never know.
01:02:58.720 You know, when you have power and you decide to throw it away, to gamble it, and to try to get another majority, you don't know how the voters will react.
01:03:06.920 You know, they're gambling that they know that they will vote for him again because he's Captain Canada, as I said earlier.
01:03:12.720 But, you know, when Peterson did that, we ended up with the Bob Ray government.
01:03:20.080 I'm not saying that we're going to have a married files government, but I'm just saying that you never know what voters will do.
01:03:26.140 The truth, though, is that one of the reasons why Doug Ford wants to go, I think, is because of Pierre Poirier.
01:03:33.000 I think it's always been on the radar for the progressive conservatives in Ontario that they would rather go to the polls with Justin Trudeau and the Liberals in power in Ottawa than Pierre Poirier.
01:03:44.500 Because if Poirier comes in and starts cutting public services, well, you know, the backlash could hurt Doug Ford's chances.
01:03:52.340 He doesn't want that.
01:03:53.260 So he'd rather go before that federal election.
01:03:55.880 And I think that's the main reason we're seeing this election happening this week, because, you know, he has a majority.
01:04:02.760 He can do what he wants.
01:04:04.880 You know, he's not going to change his tune after the election about what he says about Trump, the exact tune that puts him in the position in the polls that, you know, make him feel pretty good about his prospect.
01:04:15.140 Nothing's going to change.
01:04:16.300 So it's really about what can change if we go later.
01:04:19.800 You have an unpopular conservative government cutting public servant jobs, which are mostly in Ontario.
01:04:26.600 And Warren, I guess this is a last point for you on this issue of Doug Ford calling a provincial election.
01:04:32.040 I guess, you know, it looks like he's set to return to another majority and rolling the dice here.
01:04:36.240 Is there a risk that it could blow up in his face?
01:04:39.240 It's always a risk.
01:04:40.080 But given that my colleagues have only given me 30 seconds to speak, I will say that...
01:04:45.080 You can go much longer.
01:04:46.020 Trust me.
01:04:46.920 He has to go.
01:04:49.200 Like I was saying a minute ago, everything's changed.
01:04:52.340 All of the things that politicians have been getting us ready for haven't happened.
01:04:56.740 We've got a dramatically different world.
01:04:58.820 And he does need a mandate.
01:05:00.260 Like if he's talking about income supports for half a million people losing their jobs, like he needs a mandate to map that out.
01:05:07.360 You know, one of the problems we had with during the pandemic is nobody saw it coming.
01:05:11.260 We weren't ready.
01:05:12.200 Well, he needs to get ready.
01:05:13.360 I think that he has to go early.
01:05:15.840 And I think he does know that it's a risk to him.
01:05:19.260 He's calculated that.
01:05:20.820 But my bet is he's going to get a bigger majority next time, this time, than he did last time.
01:05:25.340 How about that?
01:05:26.320 Still a few days before the rate even drops.
01:05:28.200 But thanks, guys, for stopping by on the CFR Live Sunday political panel.
01:05:30.760 I really appreciate it.
01:05:31.500 I hope you have a great day.
01:05:32.480 Always fun.
01:05:33.320 Bye-bye.
01:05:33.720 That is Carl Belanger, president at Traction Strategies.
01:05:35.980 You've also been hearing from Warren Kinsella, strategist and Post Media columnist.
01:05:38.680 You can read his latest in the Toronto Sun.
01:05:40.800 Tasha Keridan is an author, political columnist for the National Post.
01:05:44.600 As I mentioned, you can read her latest on the Trump administration this week and potential impacts on Canada.
01:05:49.440 She is a writer for GZERO Media as well.
01:06:10.800 Get off my back.
01:06:12.100 I've been kicked in the gods already.
01:06:17.520 Too many pills to bite.
01:06:19.020 Get away.
01:06:19.820 5 p.m. I'm finished.
01:06:21.220 I am just a single man.
01:06:22.740 Yeah.
01:06:23.040 Looking for a way out.
01:06:24.360 But I'm sitting in the bath.
01:06:26.100 I'm sitting in the bath.
01:06:27.680 I'm sitting in the bath.
01:06:29.280 I'm waiting for a ring.
01:06:30.820 And a preposition.
01:06:32.000 Bad decision.
01:06:32.800 Greek message.
01:06:33.500 And suddenly.
01:06:34.420 Play the last pill.
01:06:35.680 I was sipping on a long neck.
01:06:37.680 Yeah.
01:06:38.340 Stuck on you.
01:06:39.800 I'm stuck on you.
01:06:40.900 Yeah.
01:06:42.100 It's a point of truth.
01:06:44.520 We're the point of truth.
01:06:46.200 Yeah.
01:06:46.500 I'm stuck on you.
01:06:48.660 Yeah.
01:06:49.560 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:02.480 I made bad choices.
01:07:06.140 But we don't all think the world's flat.
01:07:08.240 We shut the fence.
01:07:10.860 Crying.
01:07:11.260 Just trying to laugh at every party.
01:07:12.980 I went to the Northwest.
01:07:14.480 Now it's 5 a.m.
01:07:16.180 And my eyes are loose.
01:07:17.300 I feel I'm bleeding.
01:07:18.220 Good luck.
01:07:18.660 I can see.
01:07:19.280 But I'm swimming in a cup.
01:07:21.080 That is just a behavior.
01:07:22.760 If we go.
01:07:23.460 Fuck the law.
01:07:24.340 Life's a rough.
01:07:25.040 And now it's high.
01:07:25.780 Just really good.
01:07:27.640 Yeah.
01:07:28.180 Run on my clock.
01:07:29.080 We're tight.
01:07:30.180 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:31.620 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:32.760 What's a point of truth?
01:07:36.540 We're the point of truth.
01:07:38.140 Yeah.
01:07:38.340 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:40.900 Yeah.
01:07:41.560 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:42.860 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:44.620 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:47.180 What's a point of truth?
01:07:49.460 We're the point of truth.
01:07:51.160 Yeah.
01:07:51.440 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:53.340 Yeah.
01:07:54.100 I'm stuck on you.
01:07:55.400 I'm stuck on me.
01:07:55.640 I'm on to work
01:08:09.360 I'm not at tea
01:08:12.480 My blessed hey mate
01:08:15.640 You're late
01:08:16.460 Always on a mandate
01:08:18.100 Will I get paid on Friday
01:08:22.800 Wanna play Saturday
01:08:24.400 Give them Sunday
01:08:25.600 When we're same by fate
01:08:27.460 I'm always broke on Sunday
01:08:29.340 Always broke on Sunday
01:08:30.980 Always broke on Sunday
01:08:32.540 I'm stuck at the end
01:08:34.720 I'm stuck at the end
01:08:36.300 I'm stuck at the end
01:08:38.620 What's a boat to do
01:08:41.020 When I'm part of a pod
01:08:42.680 Yeah I'm stuck at the end
01:08:44.420 Yeah I'm stuck at the end
01:08:47.520 I'm stuck at the end
01:08:49.360 I'm stuck at the end
01:08:50.880 What's a boat to do
01:08:54.000 We're a part of the place
01:08:55.660 Yeah, I'm stuck in here
01:08:57.440 Yeah, yeah, I'm stuck in here