00:02:37.320We make our aluminium in Canada with hydropower, so we're in a very strong position.
00:02:42.940And when he did that six or seven years ago, you know, there was virtually no effect on the industry,
00:02:51.420because we have, you know, and the more that the attack, the more the Canadian dollar is going down,
00:02:59.300so, you know, for us, they pay us more with their American dollars.
00:03:07.040So it's not kidding us, but it will cause a lot of problems to a lot of small factories in the United States.
00:03:15.480You need aluminium from Canada or our steel.
00:03:19.220So, you know, we have to stand up, not suck up, but stand up.
00:03:25.300So the question I've got is, you know, you've cited the example of aluminium.
00:03:29.920There's so many other examples where economists are saying Americans ultimately are the ones who are going to be bearing the weight of this.
00:03:40.960Why, you know, you've known presidents and prime ministers.
00:03:44.400You've known kings and queens in your time in politics.
00:03:48.560You've known all these different people.
00:03:50.920People are trying to understand why do you think that Trump is doing this?
00:03:55.080Is there any logic behind what he is doing?
00:03:57.700You know, I don't understand it, or I do, depends, you know.
00:04:04.980He talks about McKinley, who had put tariffs and decided to isolate the United States and to conquest some land,
00:04:17.380so he took over the Philippines at one time and so on and wanted to expand the territory.
00:04:23.140So it was, it's what happened after the First World War, you know, the society of nations that Wilson had negotiated was blocked by the Congress
00:04:37.300because they wanted to completely be isolated and not pay attention to the rest of the world.
00:04:43.780So, you know, it seems to be that mentality that seems to be prevailing.
00:04:48.880But, you know, if they do that, it's the end of what they call the American empire.
00:04:55.180Their entrance will dry down completely around the globe.
00:04:59.640It is a theory that they want to be on their own.
00:05:03.100And he wants to annex Canada because, you know, they know they need water and they need a lot of resources and a lot of land.
00:05:12.620And, you know, because, you know, if they want water from us, they will have to pay for it.
00:05:18.980You know, it was part of NAFTA at the beginning, but when I finished NAFTA, because it was not passed by the Congress of America,
00:05:28.880you know, I had to finish it with Clinton and I excluded the water.
00:05:33.020So the water cannot be, we're not obligated, so, you know, anymore to sell it to the United States.
00:05:40.140So, you know, we have a lot of assets that we can negotiate with them.
00:05:43.860And we are very good neighbor for them, very useful.
00:05:48.860You know, remember one day I said to Bill Clinton, I don't want to be too close to you because if I look like I'm the 51st state,
00:06:33.940And one of the theories that I advance in it is, well, because people suspect deep down that the Conservative Party under Mr. Polyev is more sympathetic to Trump than the Liberal Party is.
00:09:47.960But, you know, the market is there and the resources are here and it's closed and it's cheaper to do it this way.
00:09:53.660And my view is that, you know, if he keeps doing what he's doing, that, you know, the tariffs are not paid by Canadians, neither by the Chinese or the Mexicans.
00:10:06.880It's going to be paid by the consumers of the United States.
00:16:14.580Tasha Keridan, Carl Belanger, and I, Jazz Johal, Ben O'Hara Byrne, talking about all of just the crazy shit that's been going on in the past few days.
00:16:26.920Feels like seven years as opposed to seven days.
00:40:42.380Keep your head still, I'll be more through
00:40:45.820The night will go on, a little bit new
00:40:50.780And welcome to it. It will not be as exciting as the four nations face off, but we'll do our best here this morning on the CFRN Live City Political Panel. Joining us, the president at Traction Strategies, he is Carl Belanger. Good morning, Carl.
00:41:19.660I think a lot of Canadians getting a lot of aggression out last night and watching that Canada-US game. I wanted to leave the US-Canada side just for a second here because obviously here in Ottawa we did see Pierre Polyev speak yesterday. A big crowd for his Canada First campaign and a little bit of changing of the message a little bit here. Going after the US, going after Donald Trump a little bit. Tasha, I kind of set this up yesterday in a sense of this is a very fraught time for Pierre Polyev right now in terms of where he has to go.
00:41:49.420It's a tightrope right now. I think the speech was pretty good. Do you think he met the moment that was needed right now for Canada?
00:41:55.780Well, I think he did in the sense that he has to stand up for Canada. He has to be that Captain Canada if he is going to win the next election because that's what Canadians are looking for.
00:42:08.740And the National Post actually talked to a number of people who were standing outside the event and they were kind of split. Many of them were saying, you know, we've got to go beyond axe attacks, but others didn't want to completely leave the cost of living issues in the background.
00:42:25.140And I think he sort of, he straddled that line. He didn't completely abandon all the old positions because if he did, it would be far too abrupt a transition.
00:42:33.560And I think one of the things is, is that now the existential threat to our standard of living isn't what came before. It's what's coming next. It's Donald Trump.
00:42:42.900So I think talking about that stuff isn't bad, but I personally don't think axe attacks should be a slogan for this election. So, you know, I think he has to pivot further.
00:42:52.540I think it was the start of it because he knows and the party knows that they have to move somewhere else if they're going to have a chance to win, which everyone thought it was an automatic get. Now it's not.
00:43:04.140I do think it was interesting, though. He never mentioned Christopher Freeland. Everyone assumes it's Mark Carney. And turning the attacks to Carney, I, this is where I think the conservatives have to be a bit careful because the attacks they're putting out sound very Trumpian.
00:43:18.340It's a very much, you know, go for the jugular, attacking a person of integrity with, you know, complete viciousness. And that viciousness, the style, the tone, that I think they have to really watch and he has to watch going forward.
00:43:31.740Yeah. And you can see the liberal ads to counter that, right? They're very much trying to paint him as Trump. So it's kind of playing into their hands.
00:43:38.960Just a quick one on that idea of the axe attacks. Are we kind of in the shift here? Is that kind of an old battle in your mind? He's kind of kind of get set for the new battle here?
00:43:48.260Well, this is the thing. I think personally it is. And that's why the carbon tax Carney stuff doesn't, you know, it's it sounds a bit hackneyed, to be honest.
00:43:57.120It's like trying to fight that old battle, keep it alive. I think they're going to have to move to a full on, you know, nationalistic, what do we do with Canada move.
00:44:07.520But like I said, they're making that transition. If they just if they just junked everything immediately, I think it would it would see it would seem more artificial, but, you know, it seemed seem more calculated than it is.
00:44:20.120And Carl, just in terms of kind of changing and pivoting in some way, does this represent in your mind a full pivot? Is this a tweak? Did they make the turn successfully? Just what's your read on this situation?
00:44:31.600Yeah, I don't think it's a full pivot yet. I mean, the ad just ran on the air about carbon tax Carney and running a few times this morning, I might add. But anyway, exactly.
00:44:42.680So so that's still their core message. They're trying to pivot because there's something that's shifted in the polls on, you know, on top of the intentions before Christmas, before the old days, when you ask Canadians who's best position to face Donald Trump and to handle that relationship with the United States, Pierre Poirier was coming on top.
00:45:03.620No, no, no, no longer. And I think it's because of Trump's aggressiveness. In the past, people thought, well, Poirier is kind of, you know, coming from the same mold.
00:45:15.900Conservative will get better, will get along better with Republicans than Justin Trudeau and the liberals.
00:45:21.580But but but but now Trump is so aggressive that why do we need his buddy in power here?
00:45:28.280And that shift, they need an answer to. And so far, the answer has been to try to sound like Trump. Right.
00:45:36.220So we replace make America great again with Canada first and we're fighting fire with fire.
00:45:41.900Not sure it's going to work. Not sure that's what Canadians are looking for.
00:45:45.640But at least they're they're realizing that the ballot question might have shifted.
00:45:50.540But as Tasha said, they're trying to keep it alive because it's worked so well for them, this carbon tax issue.
00:45:56.660Well, in two things, Carl, because you mentioned the ads as well, which is clear that, you know, they consider Mark Carney a threat.
00:46:02.000But a specific Leger poll this week talking about, you know, who would work best with the Americans.
00:46:06.840Paulie did come in at first at 22 percent, but then you've got Carney right at 20 percent.
00:46:11.260So is Carney the threat that that he looks like he is to the Conservative Party right now?
00:46:17.580Well, he is the threat, but he's also the flavor of the month.
00:46:20.440I mean, this is what happens when you have a very unpopular leader that Canadians were starting to despise and certainly didn't want to vote for, resign and being replaced by somebody that people don't actually know.
00:46:33.620He remains he remains to be framed by by the opposition, by Canadians.
00:46:40.420They don't know what he actually stands for.
00:46:42.160But he is the brand new guy who, you know, can change things.
00:46:49.260And that narrative for change is the one that the Conservatives owned before Trudeau resigned.
00:46:55.860So sometimes in politics, you have to be careful what you hope for, because by getting Trudeau to go away, well, they've opened the door for a liberal comeback.
00:47:05.640But right now, they certainly are afraid of that.
00:47:07.720And Warren, with the speech yesterday, just on the, I guess, addressing the crowd there, do you think he did hit all the right notes and kind of meet the moment as he was kind of trying to there in a very fraught political time?
00:47:25.040You know, he was unlucky in the sense that it happened on the same day as the hockey game.
00:47:29.460I would argue the hockey game was actually more important than his speech.
00:47:34.320But at the, you know, the end of it, he's still got two big problems.
00:47:39.360The first problem is, I think it was abacus, you know, do you approve or disapprove the way the following individuals are handling their jobs?
00:48:18.200Second problem he's got, you know, he changed the words on the, his podium, you know, and everybody was carrying the signs in both official languages.
00:49:30.140But he's promised to come back to the center.
00:49:31.980And he's had this groundswell of support.
00:49:33.860Is that something that Pierre Polyev should heed in a sense of, you know, there's lots of room in the center if you want to make this happen?
00:49:39.260I don't think the fight against Trump is an ideological one.
00:49:43.140I don't think it's a left-right construct anymore.
00:49:45.700When you have Stephen Harper, who basically still owns the Conservative Party, come out and say,
00:49:51.460I am prepared to accept extreme hardship for Canada to defend our sovereignty.
00:49:57.220You know, that's the moment when this is ceased to be a left-right thing.
00:50:01.400But within Polyev's ranks, within his caucus, within his membership, and perhaps within his own brain,
00:50:08.320there is a lot of sympathy and a lot of fondness for Donald Trump, the guy who says he wants to take us over,
00:50:14.520the guy who says he wants to use force against us.
00:50:17.640And the problem they've got is Canadians know it.
00:50:21.540And if they don't know it, they suspect it.
00:50:23.880They suspect that, you know, Polyev, for the reasons that my friends have just outlined,
00:50:28.760Polyev's whole stylistic, that's what I always look at, is what is the style of a politician?
00:50:33.900Polyev communicates the same way Donald Trump does, you know, the bumper sticker slogan stuff.
00:50:40.640And it's anger all the time and never smiling and, you know, making fun of people and calling them names.
00:50:47.460It's the same approach that Trump has got, Polyev's got.
00:50:51.920And that is also a huge problem for the guy.
00:50:54.200And you bring up the guy south of the border.
00:50:57.900We obviously have to talk about that in terms of the uncertainty that we're facing right now,
00:51:01.720because it has changed our entire political landscape, whether we like it or not.
00:51:05.380So we did see some more steel and aluminum tariffs announced this week.
00:51:08.500But the premiers were there in Washington trying to get somebody to listen to them, it did seem like.
00:51:14.560Tasha, I guess, is this just putting the best face in a good situation?
00:51:17.280It felt like they were destined for failure here.
00:51:20.420It doesn't seem like the Trump administration even wants to listen right now.
00:51:22.840Well, I don't know what the success they would have had would be.
00:51:26.560I think it was more to show that, I mean, they don't speak for Canada.
01:05:40.920Before we get to Mr. Paulyev, just your thought on Donald Trump and what he has done to Canadian politics in regards to discourse, what is a priority in regards to what we talk about.
01:05:56.740Talk to me a little bit about Mr. Trump and the impact he's had on our politics.
01:06:01.700His impact has been greater than any American president in my lifetime.
01:06:08.340His impact is greater than I think anybody has had on us since perhaps even World War II.
01:06:16.700And, you know, the bad is easy to see.
01:06:19.920He talks about us all the time as being the 51st state.
01:06:23.700He says that we don't offer anything to the United States or the world.
01:06:30.360He says he's going to use economic force against us.
01:06:33.980He makes up all kinds of lies about how we are harming the United States when, in fact, we're not.
01:06:40.040But there's one good thing that has emerged, at the risk of sounding like Pollyanna, is he's really united us.
01:06:49.080There has been an upsurge in patriotism and, frankly, love of this country like I have also never seen in my lifetime.
01:06:58.200And the main reason for that is people are just enraged about the things that Trump has said about us and, you know, the threats he's made with tariffs and other things.
01:07:09.760And it's really brought people together.
01:07:17.040The latest Leger poll says that if the federal liberals are led by Mark Carney, one of the leadership hopefuls, the liberals are neck and neck with the federal conservative at 37 percent support.
01:07:31.460It's hard to believe that under Justin Trudeau they were down to 16 percent support.
01:07:38.020Do you buy this upsurge in liberal fortunes?
01:07:42.680Well, my advice to people always with political polling, because they're worth what you pay for them, you know, which is you're not paying anything.
01:07:50.780And you've got to look at a bunch of them over a period of time.
01:07:54.160And if you look at the last six weeks, the Conservative Party has been losing support.
01:07:59.720As you point out, at the start of the year, Justin Trudeau's Liberal Party was at 16 percentage points, according to the Angus Reid Institute.
01:08:08.540And the Conservative Party was, you know, 30 percentage points ahead of them.
01:08:17.080And if an election had been held then, you know, Pierre Polyev would have had the biggest majority in Canadian history.
01:08:22.740Well, you know, fast forward six weeks later to now, and you look at Leger.
01:08:28.240Leger is the most accurate federal pollster.
01:08:31.880And they came out with a poll yesterday saying that if Mark Carney was the leader of the Liberal Party, Canadians would be substantially much more likely to vote Liberal, because they think he's the best guy to deal with Donald Trump.
01:08:46.260So right now, you know, according to Leger, the two parties are tied.
01:08:50.980So that 30-point lead that Pierre Polyev had, it's gone.
01:09:26.180Starting this week, starting now, Conservatives are gathering in Ottawa for a big caucus meeting.
01:09:33.780And then on Saturday at an arena in Ottawa, Conservative MPs, their families, staff people, there's going to be hundreds and hundreds of Conservatives in attendance.
01:09:45.680And Polyev is going to speak with what he's calling the Canada First Rally.
01:09:50.180This is his opportunity, I think, to start to turn it around and to stop, you know, the loss that he's experiencing against the leaderless, effectively leaderless Liberal Party.
01:10:03.280And I think, you know, what he has to do, it's pretty straightforward.
01:10:07.080He has to kick the stuffing out of Donald Trump.
01:10:10.320He has to go after mega-Republicans talking about taking over Canada.
01:10:16.680That's what people want to see from him.
01:10:20.640He's been losing ground because many voters suspect that within his caucus, within his membership, he's got a lot of people who secretly or not so secretly support Donald Trump.
01:10:49.900And I looked at, there was another poll earlier, I think last week, that said that 47% of Conservative supporters think favorably, somewhat favorably, of Mr. Trump.
01:10:59.460Can you afford to alienate even 5-10% of them for fear that they may go to the People's Party of Canada with Maxine Bernier?
01:11:07.360Can he afford to lose those folks in the hopes that maybe there's more voters in the center that may come his way?
01:11:15.020Well, I think that's why he's been pussyfooting around this problem for a while and hoping that, you know, people won't notice that he hasn't really condemned Donald Trump, but it isn't working.
01:11:38.220And, like, that is going to be his legacy.
01:11:41.160He's going to be the guy who had a 30-point lead, and he blew it because he couldn't bring himself to condemn Donald Trump.
01:11:49.400And so that's why I think what he's doing this week in Ottawa is so important for him.
01:11:56.660As to alienating those people in his caucus, I don't think he's got any choice.
01:12:01.740You know, if somebody is sympathetic with Donald Trump's position after the weeks that we've gone through and the attacks that he's made on us, well, they should move south, in my opinion.
01:12:12.820You know, they're not really Canadians, and I think that's what Polyev needs to say to them as well.
01:12:27.000And it's an opportunity for him, as all existential moments are, but, like, if they don't realize the seriousness of the situation they've got, they're being beaten by a Liberal Party that was, as you pointed out, at 16% support at the start of the year.
01:12:44.180They're being beaten by a Liberal Party that effectively does not have a leader.
01:12:51.780And Justin's kind of checked out since he announced his resignation a few weeks ago.
01:12:55.920It is an extraordinary situation where you're losing to a political opponent that doesn't have a leader.
01:13:03.700But that's what's happening because people are so dissatisfied with the approach that Polyev has taken towards Trump.
01:13:09.740He's got to get his boxing gloves on, and he's got to start taking a swipe at Trump, or, you know, this could be the end of the road for him.