kinsellacast - KINSELLACAST 352： Calgary Grit Dan Arnold on the shiny new Liberal era! With Kheiriddin, Lilley and Mraz - plus Galaxie 500, Tunde Adebimpe, Califone, The Concretes and more!

00:00:00.000 It's the KinsellaCast, starring Warren Kinsella.

00:00:22.040 Hey, it's Warren. Welcome to the KinsellaCast. A little bit early this weekend. It's East

00:00:26.500 birthday. And also the liberal leadership vote. Theoretically, hearing there are problems

00:00:33.680 with the vote and how they're doing it and the mechanics of blah, blah, blah. So God

00:00:39.960 knows what we're going to hear about when Mr. Carney is assuming the mantle of leadership.

00:00:45.460 If in fact he is. Some people are saying he won't. So we shall see. But I've got Tasha

00:00:51.020 Carradine and Brian Lidley talking about that. And John Mraz talking about Ukraine, which

00:00:59.440 I think is a much more important story. But Dan Arnold, Dan Arnold, former Calgary grit,

00:01:06.520 somebody I've known for 20 years now. I can't believe it. And he became a big cheese in Trudeau's

00:01:15.780 office. And he's now a big cheese with Polaro, one of Canada's leading polling organizations.

00:01:23.340 Great guy. So we are going to lead with a discussion he and I had. And then I get all the others on

00:01:29.120 there too, as well as the concretes. It's kind of this Swedish indie pop group. Got together

00:01:35.520 back in 95. They're now a 20 piece with their song Chico Galaxy 500. Of course, you all know

00:01:40.980 who they are. With one of their covers. And it is a cover of one of my favorite songs that I actually

00:01:48.480 have tattooed on my arm. Ceremony by New Order slash Joy Division. And the tattoo, by the way, says

00:01:55.800 lean towards this time. Okay. If you must know. So this cover is from 1989. Then we got Caliphon

00:02:02.680 from Chicago. Kind of experimental art pop stuff. Bottles and Bones from 2001. Got the

00:02:10.260 Halo Benders. Also back in the 90s. A lot of this music, as you're going to hear, is kind

00:02:15.840 of similar stuff. Although this one is funny. Don't touch my bikini. And it's got members

00:02:22.760 Beat Happening, Built to Spill. They're kind of Pacific, Northwest Coast, Idaho and Washington

00:02:29.660 guys. Great band. And then somebody who's stuck. I was just driving and I heard him

00:02:35.360 and I was like, who is that? Tunde Adabimpe. Adabimpe? Adabimpe. I apologize if I pronounced

00:02:42.700 that wrong. He's an American musician, artist, director, actor. He's on Sub Pop. He's done

00:02:51.040 stuff with Run the Jewels and the Ya Ya Ya's. And he's just amazing. So I've got one of his

00:02:57.640 tunes for you on this week's show. So, Justin. Justin. Justin. We hardly knew you. Although

00:03:08.560 towards the end, the reverse was actually true, wasn't it? We'd gotten to know Justin Trudeau

00:03:15.860 all too well. We had measured him and we had found him wanting. The indictments of Justin

00:03:23.260 Pierre James Trudeau could be conjured up without a Google search. Blackface, SNC-Lavalin,

00:03:31.420 the Alga Khan, the We Scandal, Arrive Can, election interference, and no balanced budgets,

00:03:38.420 no reconciliation with Indigenous Canadians, no electoral reform. It's a long list.

00:03:43.920 I broke the story about one of the scandals, Gropgate. In 2018, I published that Trudeau had

00:03:50.320 been credibly accused of groping a female reporter at a BC Beer Festival many years earlier and years

00:03:56.500 before he became Prime Minister. And the victim, who I did not name and have never named, disclosed

00:04:02.440 that Trudeau had groped and blatantly disrespected her words. I'd voted for Trudeau in 2015. I thought

00:04:11.300 he was the change the country needed. But then the young woman revealed what Trudeau had said to her

00:04:17.200 at the time. This is what he said. I'm sorry. If I'd known you were reporting for a national paper,

00:04:23.400 I would have never been so forward. That was bad enough. But when my little scoop attracted

00:04:30.440 unhelpful headlines around the world for Mr. Trudeau, he was confronted by the Canadian media

00:04:37.260 and he shrugged about what he did. And he added another disclaimer for the ages. This lesson we are

00:04:43.460 learning, and I'll be blunt about it, often a man experiences an interaction as being benign

00:04:48.480 or not inappropriate. And a woman, particularly in a professional context, can experience it

00:04:54.120 differently. Experience it differently. When I heard that from the self-professed feminist, that was it

00:05:03.260 for me. And when blackface broke in the following year, it merely added to the conviction that I,

00:05:09.180 and many others already had, which is that Justin Trudeau was ethically deficient. He was simply not

00:05:16.400 who we thought he was. Now, he was, and he is a man, of course, and he has failings like us all.

00:05:24.080 But his response to the groping incident and his acknowledgement that he had used racist blackface

00:05:29.960 more times than he could remember, those were a bridge too far for me. I voted for the NDP in the

00:05:36.700 next election and conservative in the two after that. The fact that people kept returning him to

00:05:41.920 high public office was irrelevant to me. It did not cleanse him of his sins. It just spread the sins

00:05:48.960 around. So now we're days away from the end of the Justin Trudeau era. He's about to be replaced by one

00:05:56.860 of two men who are his polar opposite, a bland, boring banker who is genetically incapable of the

00:06:04.620 melodramatic flourishes of Trudeau, or a morose, cranky ideologue who keeps auditioning for the job he

00:06:12.400 already has. What can be salvaged for Justin Trudeau? What can we add to the inevitable political

00:06:19.880 obituaries in the few days that remain that could be considered good? Because there is good. There are

00:06:26.540 achievements. Justin Trudeau cut child poverty in this country in half. His Canada child benefit was a

00:06:34.400 positive thing. It helped lift up close to a million children out of poverty and the hunger and the

00:06:41.340 desolation that always accompany it. He kept the separatists at bay in his decade in power. The

00:06:47.540 Canada wreckers could not resuscitate their destructive movement. Is that because he gave them

00:06:53.940 too much or because Quebecers trusted him more than the rest of us did? Historians will debate that,

00:07:00.040 but the reality is that under him, separatism became and remains a memory. He had big political

00:07:08.100 achievements as well. He lifted his party from a distant third place to a historic first place

00:07:13.600 parliamentary majority. He effected a friendly acquisition of the new democratic party's base,

00:07:19.680 and he still owns it, still owns it. And he beat three conservative leaders in a row, including one,

00:07:27.280 Stephen Harper, who was a giant. And now, at the very end, Justin Trudeau is revealing glimpses of what

00:07:35.800 we all thought we saw a decade ago, a fighter, a patriot, a believer in the undeniable greatness of this

00:07:43.320 country. On the morning that Donald Trump's destructive tariffs landed, I tweeted out Trudeau's

00:07:49.600 own words, quote, the United States launched a trade war against Canada, its closest partner and

00:07:54.940 ally, their closest friend. At the same time, they're talking about working positively with Russia,

00:08:01.800 appeasing Vladimir Putin, a lying, murderous dictator. Make that make sense. Those words of Trudeau were

00:08:11.500 seen and applauded two and a half million times. It was one of his finest moments. It was a moment of

00:08:18.960 courage and conviction. It was sad, however, that we were only seeing that leader at the very end of

00:08:26.080 his time at the top. It was what we had thought we all saw back at the beginning, wasn't it? When we

00:08:33.720 knew him, and then we hardly knew him at all.

00:08:37.040 I was thinking about my time in space. I was thinking about the human race. In the age of

00:08:43.560 tenderness and rage, had me kicking through the empty days. From inside I heard a message

00:08:50.500 cry, shining lightning in the sky. So get your head right, hold it high. So look around now,

00:08:59.820 babe you know you got good such big as you're old.

00:09:02.340 5, 3, 8, 8, 0, syncytizer. You can't drown but you're gonna get higher. I've had this

00:09:08.500 I was thinking about my time in space

00:09:25.200 I was thinking about the human race

00:09:27.920 In the age of tenderness and rage

00:09:30.920 Can you pippin' for an extra page?

00:09:34.300 From inside I heard a message cry

00:09:36.440 Shining like new

00:09:37.860 In the skies

00:09:39.220 Get it together, kid, it's time to fly

00:09:42.100 Send us around now

00:09:45.300 You know you got the touch if it's yours

00:09:47.700 And then it's a ghost of a sazer

00:09:50.160 You can't find what you're gonna get prior

00:09:52.900 How much is still it gonna lose to the fire?

00:09:55.980 What they gonna do with the lightning rioter?

00:09:59.200 And then it's a bolt in the air

00:10:01.480 Territory's flying everywhere

00:10:04.160 Cross paths will spread through the fire

00:10:07.020 What they gonna do with the lightning rioter?

00:10:09.480 Get down to basics

00:10:11.940 We're gonna crush your matrix

00:10:14.680 And what you gonna do about that?

00:10:17.640 Gonna get all your out of my life

00:10:21.240 Get down to basics

00:10:23.320 We're gonna crush your matrix

00:10:26.120 And how you gonna do with the lightning rioter?

00:10:31.580 And how you gonna feel about that?

00:10:32.580 And how you gonna feel about that?

00:10:33.580 And how you gonna feel about that?

00:10:34.580 And how you gonna feel about that?

00:10:35.580 Why'd you wanna come like that for?

00:10:37.580 To get higher

00:10:38.340 Out of the skin

00:10:39.560 And how you gonna feel about that?

00:10:40.040 What he gonna do with the lightning rioter?

00:10:44.040 I'll get it

00:10:45.460 Off to the air

00:10:46.880 There's no way to be flying everywhere

00:10:49.780 Cross paths will spread through the fire

00:10:52.460 What they gonna do with the lightning rioter?

00:10:55.880 Down in it

00:10:57.040 Don't fix the sazer

00:10:58.400 If it's not what you're gonna get higher

00:11:01.220 Cross paths will spread through the fire

00:11:03.880 What they gonna do with the lightning rioter?

00:11:06.960 And we're back, and we're back with Dan Arnold.

00:11:10.640 And Dan, just so everybody knows a little bit about him,

00:11:15.180 if they don't already,

00:11:16.540 Dan oversaw the Trudeau Liberals research program

00:11:20.940 in 2015, 2019, 2021, in all of those elections.

00:11:26.540 And he did focus groups and tracking,

00:11:30.900 and then in between all of that,

00:11:34.040 worked in the Prime Minister's office

00:11:35.640 as Director of Research, Advertising, and Correspondence.

00:11:39.540 And he's now back where he was before all of that,

00:11:43.220 which is a Polara research in Toronto

00:11:47.180 run by some terrific people.

00:11:50.600 And, but Dan, so I wanted to welcome you to the Gonsalcast,

00:11:54.080 but also you and I encountered each other years ago

00:12:00.080 in your incarnation as Calgary Grit.

00:12:03.160 Tell people what Calgary Grit was.

00:12:05.640 Well, this was a blog, and I feel like an old man now,

00:12:09.640 if I have to explain what a, well, at the time,

00:12:11.680 it was very cutting-edge and trendy,

00:12:13.180 but it was basically Substack long before Substack.

00:12:16.320 And it was a big thing for a while,

00:12:17.960 and yeah, we had a lot of online conversations

00:12:20.440 back in the day there.

00:12:22.400 Yeah, we did indeed.

00:12:23.580 Anyways, you did fine work,

00:12:25.260 and it attracted the attention of a lot of people.

00:12:27.760 So obviously one of them was Justin Trudeau.

00:12:29.680 So how did you come to work

00:12:31.960 in the office of the Prime Minister of Canada?

00:12:36.540 Yeah, and it was really just, I guess,

00:12:38.240 right place at the right time.

00:12:39.660 I was, as you mentioned, I was working at Polara

00:12:42.140 and briefly across the hall from you,

00:12:43.800 I think actually at one point there.

00:12:45.240 But, you know, I'd been in the research industry there

00:12:48.680 for four or five years,

00:12:49.740 working with Michael Marzolini,

00:12:51.540 who was Jean Chrétien's bolster back in the day.

00:12:53.440 So he taught me a lot about political research.

00:12:56.420 And the Trudeau folks were looking to hire someone

00:12:59.100 to do the polling for them

00:13:00.540 in the lead up to the 2015 campaign,

00:13:02.840 who could actually work and do this around the clock

00:13:05.720 in working for the party.

00:13:08.580 And, you know, I just, I had a bit of experience,

00:13:11.140 but was not so experienced

00:13:13.000 that I was too expensive for them, I guess.

00:13:15.220 And, you know, it just sort of fell into place.

00:13:17.700 So they hired me on,

00:13:18.420 and I did all the polling

00:13:19.940 in the lead up to the 2015 campaign.

00:13:21.740 So, yeah, we tested platform and commercials

00:13:24.360 and, you know, mapped out target ridings and all of that.

00:13:27.800 And then that campaign obviously ended well.

00:13:31.580 And, you know, from there,

00:13:32.480 went into the prime minister's office.

00:13:34.240 That's great.

00:13:34.740 So what was that like?

00:13:35.700 One thing, I remember a couple of years ago,

00:13:38.580 I was talking to a conservative pollster

00:13:40.800 and he was, we were both speaking

00:13:44.520 at some kind of a panel thing.

00:13:46.700 And he was saying, you know,

00:13:48.580 conservative partisans should be careful

00:13:51.000 because they always assume that,

00:13:54.300 you know, the majority of folks

00:13:55.740 dislike Justin Trudeau as much as they do.

00:13:59.020 And he said, you know,

00:13:59.900 the research has shown that

00:14:02.400 there was always a wellspring.

00:14:04.840 There was always a group of Canadians

00:14:06.560 who liked Trudeau quite a bit.

00:14:09.140 What did you find when you were doing

00:14:11.300 that kind of research for him?

00:14:13.800 Yeah, I think in 2015, that was the case.

00:14:17.540 You know, there was a segment of people

00:14:19.200 who kind of felt like they knew Justin

00:14:21.460 since he was in diapers, literally,

00:14:23.200 and wanted him to do well.

00:14:26.600 You know, that said,

00:14:27.700 the conservative attack ads,

00:14:29.100 the Just Not Ready campaign

00:14:30.360 in the lead up to that election

00:14:31.460 certainly did knock his support levels down.

00:14:33.580 But I think there was still

00:14:34.340 an undercurrent of goodwill out there.

00:14:37.120 And there was enough, you know,

00:14:39.280 people who wanted change

00:14:40.380 that it really was not a matter

00:14:41.340 of even beating Stephen Harper

00:14:42.340 that campaign.

00:14:43.080 It was more a matter of, you know,

00:14:44.260 beating Tom Mulcair that campaign.

00:14:46.460 And I think, you know,

00:14:47.740 Trudeau performed well that campaign

00:14:49.620 on the stump and the debates.

00:14:50.880 And ultimately,

00:14:51.800 for people who wanted change,

00:14:53.180 he looked like the more changey option,

00:14:55.760 I guess, between him and Mulcair

00:14:57.060 and kind of coasted into the office

00:15:00.220 based on that.

00:15:01.460 I'm looking for war stories from you.

00:15:03.400 So I relate one with an eye experience

00:15:07.240 working for Mr. Chrétien.

00:15:10.360 Chrétien was, I found,

00:15:13.520 because I was the guy when we won in 93

00:15:15.720 who was in charge of cutting polling

00:15:18.100 and advertising because he felt that

00:15:20.640 it was a promise that had been made

00:15:21.920 in the Red Book.

00:15:23.040 And he felt that it was,

00:15:24.480 there was some unnecessary expenditure

00:15:26.320 happening there.

00:15:27.440 And what I learned in that exercise

00:15:29.280 and subsequently is that he's

00:15:31.360 a gut level politician where

00:15:33.240 he paid close attention

00:15:35.020 to research and data and surveys

00:15:38.140 and all that good stuff.

00:15:39.540 But he trusted his gut

00:15:42.420 probably even more than he did the numbers.

00:15:45.360 What was your experience with Trudeau?

00:15:47.660 Yeah, I would say Trudeau

00:15:49.000 is a very data driven politician

00:15:52.420 in the sense that even at one point,

00:15:55.560 I remember in 2015,

00:15:56.360 there was this big dashboard console

00:15:59.180 that had been created

00:16:00.180 that had all the projections

00:16:01.400 for every riding

00:16:02.180 and all the health

00:16:02.880 and the door knocks

00:16:03.540 in every riding.

00:16:04.360 And basically the campaign team

00:16:05.860 had to lock him out of console

00:16:07.680 because he was spending too much time

00:16:08.820 like going riding by riding

00:16:09.860 and figuring out

00:16:10.440 how many door knocks were happening

00:16:11.520 and what the fundraising members

00:16:13.160 were in every riding.

00:16:14.020 And he definitely is somebody

00:16:15.180 who likes data

00:16:15.940 and likes kind of digging through it.

00:16:18.380 And my experience as well,

00:16:19.820 like whenever I was doing presentations,

00:16:21.120 is that he is somebody who,

00:16:23.040 I know there was an image

00:16:24.520 in some quarters

00:16:25.180 that he's kind of a flighty airhead,

00:16:27.080 but honestly, like very bright.

00:16:28.700 He's a former math teacher, right?

00:16:29.760 He likes numbers

00:16:30.340 and he asked a lot

00:16:31.420 of difficult questions

00:16:32.540 in terms of, you know,

00:16:34.120 you know, just because this is

00:16:35.640 what the numbers are showing,

00:16:36.900 like, is there some other

00:16:37.900 undercurrent factor here?

00:16:39.300 Is there a correlation

00:16:41.380 that is not being measured in here?

00:16:43.140 And like actually asking

00:16:43.920 the types of questions

00:16:44.640 that you would ask

00:16:45.440 in a, you know,

00:16:46.380 university level statistics course.

00:16:49.020 You know, so I had to be

00:16:50.240 very well prepared

00:16:50.920 for any presentations

00:16:51.840 because I was usually expecting

00:16:53.540 to get difficult questions

00:16:55.180 about the data

00:16:56.580 and some of the different factors

00:16:59.160 that could come into play there.

00:17:00.260 So I think, you know,

00:17:00.880 very bright guy

00:17:01.860 who can connect a lot of dots

00:17:03.160 and, you know,

00:17:04.540 keep a lot in his head

00:17:05.680 and then, you know,

00:17:06.780 draw the connections

00:17:07.500 between what he's seen on data

00:17:08.820 and what he's seen

00:17:09.540 in other places.

00:17:11.880 That's fascinating.

00:17:12.920 So what do you think

00:17:13.740 the legacy will be for this?

00:17:16.560 This is projecting ahead,

00:17:17.780 I guess,

00:17:18.600 for this very bright guy.

00:17:21.220 Where do you think

00:17:23.700 it's going to end up

00:17:25.120 in the days to come?

00:17:26.800 I think that there's a turn

00:17:28.340 that's taken place

00:17:29.420 in the past, you know,

00:17:30.660 few weeks with Trump

00:17:31.740 and we can talk about that

00:17:32.720 in a minute.

00:17:33.540 What do you think ultimately

00:17:34.500 his legacy is going to be?

00:17:37.560 Yeah, and if anything,

00:17:39.400 obviously when he announced

00:17:40.420 his resignation on January 6th,

00:17:43.840 he was doing it at a time

00:17:44.820 when he was, you know,

00:17:45.560 at the bare bottom of the well

00:17:47.860 in terms of approval ratings,

00:17:49.520 people felt about him.

00:17:51.340 There wasn't a lot of,

00:17:52.260 honestly, like tributes

00:17:53.660 or things rolling in

00:17:54.560 because, you know,

00:17:55.720 he left at a time

00:17:56.680 when, you know,

00:17:57.300 he kind of was being forced out

00:17:58.880 at a level of very low popularity.

00:18:01.820 I do think the last month or two

00:18:03.860 has actually probably helped

00:18:05.600 a little bit

00:18:06.120 in terms of building

00:18:07.200 a bit of that legacy

00:18:07.900 just because people seem

00:18:09.900 to have responded positively

00:18:11.000 to how he's dealt with Trump

00:18:12.040 and a few of the other crises

00:18:12.960 that have been going on

00:18:14.300 in the world.

00:18:14.720 And God, there have been

00:18:15.200 a lot of crises so far in 2025.

00:18:17.400 So, you know,

00:18:18.560 he's been thrust into that role

00:18:20.300 and, you know,

00:18:21.080 I think if you're trying

00:18:22.260 to kind of sum up

00:18:23.120 the Trudeau legacy,

00:18:24.120 I think it will get looked back

00:18:25.800 on as somebody

00:18:26.380 who led the country

00:18:27.860 through very difficult times,

00:18:29.260 through COVID,

00:18:30.060 through Trump,

00:18:31.680 through Trump again.

00:18:32.440 And I think that's probably

00:18:34.220 where the legacy will form.

00:18:36.640 We actually,

00:18:37.340 Blair, we actually did

00:18:37.940 a poll on this

00:18:38.560 that we're putting out

00:18:39.200 this week in the paper

00:18:41.900 in terms of asking Canadians

00:18:43.840 what they felt the strongest

00:18:44.940 and weakest parts

00:18:45.800 of the Trudeau legacy were.

00:18:47.320 And, you know,

00:18:48.120 the things that popped there

00:18:49.220 was, yes,

00:18:49.800 his leadership during COVID,

00:18:50.980 but, you know,

00:18:51.380 legalized marijuana,

00:18:52.580 dental care, child care.

00:18:53.880 So I think there are

00:18:54.420 some programs

00:18:55.200 that assuming they survive,

00:18:57.960 you know,

00:18:58.180 whatever comes next,

00:18:59.360 probably stand out

00:19:00.960 as being positives.

00:19:02.960 But I found interesting, too,

00:19:04.140 is when we asked

00:19:04.520 about the negatives.

00:19:05.900 You know,

00:19:06.340 the negatives that people

00:19:07.200 went to are not even

00:19:08.380 the scandals

00:19:10.040 or the controversies.

00:19:10.980 Like SNC was pretty

00:19:11.940 low down the list.

00:19:12.960 India trip,

00:19:13.580 like all those things

00:19:14.120 were pretty low down.

00:19:14.940 It was, you know,

00:19:16.280 he let immigration

00:19:17.100 get out of control.

00:19:18.020 He ran large deficits.

00:19:19.440 Inflation went up.

00:19:20.320 Housing prices went up.

00:19:21.420 So, you know,

00:19:22.240 a lot more kind of

00:19:23.020 in the economic space

00:19:24.320 in terms of those

00:19:26.000 criticisms there.

00:19:27.780 And, you know,

00:19:28.280 10 years from now,

00:19:29.520 I don't know how people

00:19:29.900 will look back on that.

00:19:31.040 Those opinions might change.

00:19:32.440 For better or for worse.

00:19:34.080 But I think, you know,

00:19:35.560 everyone we asked

00:19:36.560 could come up with a positive

00:19:37.400 and everybody could come up

00:19:38.180 with a negative.

00:19:38.800 So, you know,

00:19:40.440 I think there are certainly

00:19:43.040 pros and cons

00:19:43.980 that Canadians see

00:19:44.700 in his time in office.

00:19:46.140 For sure.

00:19:46.460 Interesting.

00:19:47.040 Because those are

00:19:48.080 the principal issues

00:19:49.340 that failed Kamala Harris

00:19:50.820 as well, I think.

00:19:52.240 Like in the past few days,

00:19:54.660 whoever, you know,

00:19:55.220 I put up just a tweet

00:19:57.560 containing his words

00:19:59.020 from his statement

00:20:00.720 the morning the tariffs hit

00:20:02.620 and, you know,

00:20:03.880 got over 2 million views of it.

00:20:06.520 And I took that

00:20:07.420 as an indication.

00:20:08.240 Not obviously

00:20:08.840 all of those people

00:20:10.200 are looking at that

00:20:11.340 and expressing love for him.

00:20:14.140 But approving of the way

00:20:15.860 he's been conducting himself

00:20:17.640 in these dying days

00:20:19.720 of his tenure,

00:20:20.540 I really think

00:20:23.500 that he's done

00:20:24.360 an exemplary job.

00:20:26.560 You're seeing that

00:20:27.420 and your colleagues

00:20:28.860 are seeing that

00:20:29.500 in your polling,

00:20:30.440 aren't you?

00:20:30.980 That there seems to be

00:20:32.460 a change in perception

00:20:33.860 of the guy

00:20:34.480 ironically at the end

00:20:35.980 of his time.

00:20:37.800 Yeah, and it's interesting.

00:20:39.580 I don't know what

00:20:39.920 the counterfactual was.

00:20:40.960 Like if he had not announced

00:20:41.860 he was resigning

00:20:42.640 would people still look at

00:20:43.960 how he's handled Trump

00:20:45.440 the same way

00:20:46.100 or they look at it as like,

00:20:47.180 oh, he's just like

00:20:47.860 doing this for,

00:20:49.040 you know,

00:20:49.580 his own political,

00:20:50.620 trying to save himself

00:20:51.520 and like would he get

00:20:52.440 looked at differently?

00:20:53.300 But I think because

00:20:53.940 he's announced he's leaving,

00:20:55.200 like people kind of like

00:20:56.660 see this as like

00:20:57.720 he's doing what he feels

00:20:58.960 he needs to do

00:20:59.620 for the good of the country.

00:21:00.800 It's, you know,

00:21:01.180 they kind of take

00:21:01.720 the political motivations

00:21:03.140 off the table

00:21:03.780 to some extent,

00:21:04.940 which has probably helped.

00:21:06.360 And yeah, look,

00:21:07.200 I think he has looked

00:21:08.640 very capable

00:21:10.740 and strong

00:21:11.440 in the face of Trump.

00:21:13.120 And it's always,

00:21:13.760 you know,

00:21:14.040 when you have a common enemy

00:21:15.040 and we haven't had

00:21:16.320 a common enemy

00:21:16.860 like Donald Trump

00:21:17.500 in a long time,

00:21:18.180 I think as Canadians.

00:21:18.880 So, you know,

00:21:20.480 I think Canadians

00:21:21.120 are looking for that type

00:21:22.540 of leadership

00:21:22.940 and that type of strength.

00:21:24.360 And he certainly feels

00:21:25.320 like he's risen

00:21:25.800 to the moment.

00:21:27.240 And I think that will,

00:21:28.980 you know,

00:21:29.480 help him a lot

00:21:30.340 in the long run

00:21:31.060 in terms of what

00:21:31.800 that legacy looks like.

00:21:33.660 I agree.

00:21:34.280 No, I think he has risen

00:21:35.340 to the moment.

00:21:36.340 And he does have

00:21:37.380 some achievements

00:21:38.240 that can be pointed to.

00:21:40.580 And I wrote a column

00:21:41.880 in Post Media

00:21:42.740 this weekend

00:21:43.520 about, you know,

00:21:44.900 having child,

00:21:46.260 cutting in half

00:21:47.440 child poverty

00:21:48.240 and, you know,

00:21:49.560 suppressing the separatist

00:21:50.840 movement in Quebec

00:21:51.620 and taking the Liberal Party

00:21:56.160 from a distant third place

00:21:58.080 in the House of Commons

00:21:58.920 to a substantial

00:22:00.500 parliamentary majority,

00:22:01.980 which is a tribute

00:22:02.800 to him

00:22:03.280 and to guys like Hugh.

00:22:05.260 So he moves on

00:22:07.020 to the lecture circuit

00:22:08.060 writing his memoirs

00:22:09.400 and all the stuff

00:22:10.020 that prime ministers

00:22:10.840 do afterwards.

00:22:12.920 Where do you think

00:22:13.920 things go now

00:22:15.180 for the Liberal Party?

00:22:16.440 The party's back

00:22:17.920 from the dead

00:22:18.720 where it was

00:22:19.800 at the start of the year.

00:22:21.720 People obviously

00:22:22.820 have misgivings

00:22:23.880 about Paliyev

00:22:25.120 as the guy

00:22:26.160 to handle Donald Trump.

00:22:27.640 Why is that?

00:22:28.520 What have,

00:22:29.320 what's your sense

00:22:30.440 about why

00:22:31.240 they've got to hold back

00:22:32.720 about him

00:22:33.440 and Trump?

00:22:34.500 Yeah,

00:22:36.360 and I think,

00:22:36.860 look,

00:22:37.180 I think Paliyev

00:22:38.180 for the last two years

00:22:39.120 has really just been

00:22:39.880 coasting on being

00:22:41.120 not Justin Trudeau

00:22:42.460 and, you know,

00:22:43.720 he was doing well

00:22:44.960 in the polls

00:22:45.320 because people

00:22:45.820 wanted change

00:22:46.480 and they saw him

00:22:47.040 as change.

00:22:48.800 But I don't think

00:22:49.880 he ever built up

00:22:50.520 a ton of personal love

00:22:52.640 for himself

00:22:53.880 and now that

00:22:55.280 the ballot question

00:22:55.960 has kind of shifted

00:22:56.640 away from,

00:22:57.680 you know,

00:22:57.960 that change,

00:22:59.640 you know,

00:23:00.140 acts of attacks

00:23:00.800 for things he was

00:23:01.380 talking about

00:23:01.920 to dealing with Trump,

00:23:03.540 you know,

00:23:04.920 he just,

00:23:05.520 I think for a lot

00:23:06.140 of voters,

00:23:06.540 doesn't look like

00:23:07.500 the guy to handle

00:23:08.340 Trump.

00:23:09.280 And, you know,

00:23:09.880 again,

00:23:10.180 Polari put out

00:23:10.700 a poll this week

00:23:11.540 and said,

00:23:12.660 you know,

00:23:12.900 for each of these

00:23:13.340 following people,

00:23:14.000 if they were

00:23:14.220 prime minister,

00:23:14.940 do you think

00:23:15.420 they would do

00:23:16.380 what Donald Trump

00:23:17.040 demands

00:23:17.520 or would they

00:23:18.320 strongly oppose

00:23:19.060 Donald Trump's

00:23:19.660 demands?

00:23:20.040 And for Trudeau,

00:23:22.160 for Carney,

00:23:23.260 you know,

00:23:24.340 you've got

00:23:24.820 more than two

00:23:26.380 to one that say

00:23:27.140 he would oppose

00:23:28.340 rather than do

00:23:28.920 what Trump wants,

00:23:29.680 whereas Poliav

00:23:30.200 it's reversed.

00:23:30.780 You have more

00:23:31.080 Canadians who think

00:23:31.880 Poliav would do

00:23:32.880 what Trump wants

00:23:33.660 than people who

00:23:34.240 feel like he would

00:23:35.000 stand up to Trump.

00:23:37.000 And that's,

00:23:38.120 you know,

00:23:38.420 in the fairness,

00:23:39.000 Poliav has never

00:23:39.440 said he'd go along

00:23:40.120 with Trump.

00:23:40.460 He's obviously

00:23:40.740 said all the right

00:23:41.440 things,

00:23:42.260 but I think he's

00:23:42.960 just kind of built

00:23:43.560 up a bit of a

00:23:44.660 reputation as a guy

00:23:45.660 who uses slogans

00:23:46.920 and has a bit

00:23:47.820 of a Trumpian

00:23:48.560 sort of playbook

00:23:50.240 that he plays

00:23:51.680 off of.

00:23:53.180 And,

00:23:53.420 you know,

00:23:54.800 when voters are

00:23:55.300 looking for someone

00:23:55.960 who has a different,

00:23:58.040 you know,

00:23:59.560 different style than

00:24:00.460 Trump and a different

00:24:01.160 approach than Trump

00:24:02.000 and is not aligned

00:24:03.140 with Trump,

00:24:03.620 I think there is

00:24:04.180 some underlying

00:24:04.760 concerns that he

00:24:05.720 would maybe go

00:24:06.840 along with Trump

00:24:08.160 and maybe not be

00:24:08.860 as forceful

00:24:09.480 opposing him.

00:24:11.160 So,

00:24:11.860 you know,

00:24:12.440 you could still

00:24:12.780 win the next

00:24:13.180 election.

00:24:13.600 Honestly,

00:24:13.860 if I was betting,

00:24:14.380 I'd still bet on

00:24:15.040 Poliav winning

00:24:15.580 the next election

00:24:16.300 because I think

00:24:16.640 people will want

00:24:17.440 change after a

00:24:18.440 long time

00:24:18.940 of liberals

00:24:19.600 and he does

00:24:21.340 a lot of other

00:24:21.720 things really well

00:24:22.320 as a politician

00:24:23.020 and can certainly

00:24:24.280 mobilize people

00:24:25.380 and has been on

00:24:25.860 the right side

00:24:26.380 of a lot of

00:24:26.780 issues around

00:24:27.300 inflation and

00:24:27.900 cost of living

00:24:28.400 and still has

00:24:28.780 good messages

00:24:29.220 there.

00:24:30.200 But,

00:24:30.460 yeah,

00:24:30.740 he's certainly

00:24:31.620 facing his

00:24:32.700 biggest challenge

00:24:33.460 that he has

00:24:34.640 in the last

00:24:35.080 two years

00:24:36.060 because,

00:24:37.020 you know,

00:24:37.700 the whole board

00:24:39.100 has been shaken

00:24:39.620 and turned upside

00:24:40.240 down with Donald

00:24:40.880 Trump.

00:24:41.280 It just doesn't

00:24:41.600 seem like the

00:24:42.080 right person

00:24:42.600 to,

00:24:43.740 in the eyes

00:24:44.220 of a lot of

00:24:44.580 voters,

00:24:44.900 to deal with

00:24:45.320 this new

00:24:46.140 reality that

00:24:46.660 we're in here.

00:24:47.240 No,

00:24:47.440 it is a new

00:24:47.900 reality and it's

00:24:48.740 an extraordinary

00:24:49.300 time and you

00:24:50.720 have been part

00:24:51.260 of it over the

00:24:51.880 past few years

00:24:52.740 and so I hope

00:24:54.620 you have a

00:24:55.080 wonderful time

00:24:55.940 in Ottawa

00:24:57.040 this weekend,

00:24:59.380 you know,

00:24:59.720 recapturing some

00:25:00.520 of the memories

00:25:01.540 of the great

00:25:02.460 victories that you

00:25:03.160 guys scored

00:25:03.740 and also going

00:25:04.920 back to your

00:25:05.400 days as Calgary

00:25:06.120 Grit when we

00:25:08.020 first met.

00:25:08.620 So, Dan,

00:25:09.920 thank you very

00:25:10.400 much.

00:25:10.720 Very grateful

00:25:11.320 for you

00:25:12.020 taking some

00:25:13.340 time to

00:25:13.960 speak to me

00:25:15.220 on the podcast

00:25:16.140 this weekend.

00:25:17.120 Thank you.

00:25:18.200 Yeah,

00:25:18.400 thanks,

00:25:18.640 bud.

00:25:18.720 Thank you.

00:25:29.420 I'm

00:25:29.720 going

00:25:30.120 to

00:25:30.540 Thank you.

00:26:00.540 Thank you.

00:26:30.540 Thank you.

00:27:00.540 Thank you.

00:27:30.540 Thank you.

00:28:00.540 Thank you.

00:28:30.540 Thank you.

00:29:00.540 Thank you.

00:29:02.540 Thank you.

00:29:04.540 Thank you.

00:29:06.540 Thank you.

00:29:08.540 Thank you.

00:29:10.540 Thank you.

00:29:12.540 Thank you.

00:29:14.540 Thank you.

00:29:18.540 Thank you.

00:29:20.540 Thank you.

00:29:22.540 Thank you.

00:29:24.540 Thank you.

00:29:28.540 Thank you.

00:29:30.540 Thank you.

00:29:32.540 Thank you.

00:29:34.540 Thank you.

00:29:36.540 Thank you.

00:29:38.540 Thank you.

00:29:40.540 Thank you.

00:29:42.540 We'll be right back.

00:30:12.540 We'll be right back.

00:30:42.540 We'll be right back.

00:31:12.520 We'll be right back.

00:31:42.520 Well, maybe you are on spring break.

00:31:44.920 I'm not.

00:31:45.680 I'm not in Ottawa either, where all of the luminaries in the Liberal Party of Canada are gathering this weekend, or a lot of them.

00:31:54.140 What do you anticipate is going to be the result of the big vote on Sunday?

00:31:59.760 Well, I anticipate that Mark Kearney is going to win.

00:32:02.620 By how much?

00:32:03.660 I will not guess.

00:32:05.820 The system, as you know, is weighted so that if you have a lot of votes in ridings where there's not a lot of people, you can get a lot of those points, 100 points per riding.

00:32:16.380 So I had heard Krista Freeland sold a lot of memberships out west in Alberta where the membership levels are low.

00:32:23.980 So maybe she'll get some bump from that.

00:32:26.580 You know, I saw some stuff on Twitter.

00:32:29.260 And should we believe it or not?

00:32:30.400 I don't know that only 1.5 million, sorry, 150,000 of the 400,000 Liberals had actually voted, which is interesting.

00:32:37.880 And there was people reporting glitches.

00:32:39.300 They couldn't understand the process.

00:32:40.540 And so they say, well, maybe this will favor Karina Gould.

00:32:42.900 I don't know if either of them will be able to overcome the lead Kearney is supposed to have and that he has an opinion polls, both of Liberal supporters and in general population.

00:32:54.320 So I think that will influence people's choice a lot as to who could win the next election.

00:32:58.060 And if you think it's him, I think he'll win.

00:33:00.480 Okay.

00:33:00.900 So let's say he does win.

00:33:02.740 He pulls it off.

00:33:03.640 If you were advising him, would you advise him to go to the people for an election right away or wait a little while and let them get to know you a bit better?

00:33:14.660 Well, I would say that there's two ways to approach this.

00:33:19.400 What's best for the Liberal Party and for him, I think, would be to go right away.

00:33:22.540 I think that they're surfing a wave right now.

00:33:25.180 When you look at the aggregators of polls, they could even potentially get a majority.

00:33:30.640 That's shocking, but at the very least, a minority.

00:33:33.600 They're in that space and the conservative lead has shrunk immeasurably.

00:33:37.620 The NDP has also cratered, which helps the Liberals, their votes going there.

00:33:41.900 So that polarity between Liberals and the conservatives is there.

00:33:44.580 So I think he's got to seize the moment.

00:33:46.760 Politically, the smart thing to do is seize the moment.

00:33:49.060 What's best for the country would probably be to actually try and deal with the crisis we're facing in some kind of, you know, I suggested a unity government.

00:33:57.960 And I've never actually been ratioed so much in my life, I think, by conservatives who really want an election.

00:34:03.420 A lot of people think it's a good idea if you've got everyone around the table to agree.

00:34:06.840 I do.

00:34:07.660 I agree with you.

00:34:08.400 I saw that.

00:34:09.180 Yeah.

00:34:09.500 It would be, I think, in the national interest.

00:34:12.260 But I don't think the conservatives would go for it.

00:34:13.780 So I think faced with that, he really has no choice but to go to the polls.

00:34:17.020 So does he have, if he goes to the polls right away, or even later on, does he have what it takes?

00:34:24.120 You and I, I was very influenced by a column you did for the National Post about the first debate, which was in French.

00:34:31.160 And you really influenced my thinking and a lot of others saying that you and your daughter felt he really wasn't up to snuff.

00:34:38.340 And then we, I think we're all waiting to see how he'd do in the English debate.

00:34:42.260 And it was kind of lunchbag letdown in that one too.

00:34:45.300 Like, how do you think he will do in the debates that are the real debates with Pierre Polyev and also, you know, on the campaign trail?

00:34:54.100 I don't think he'll do great in the debates.

00:34:57.180 I don't.

00:34:58.260 The question is whether it matters.

00:35:00.140 I think his performance here, his French, is definitely not up to par.

00:35:03.620 He was the weakest of the four.

00:35:05.620 And, you know, Polyev's French is much better.

00:35:09.040 And, of course, François Blanchet is French.

00:35:12.000 So he won't, he didn't, he couldn't get his message across in that debate.

00:35:17.560 So the others dominated.

00:35:18.600 Christopher Freeland and Gould actually kind of dominated that debate.

00:35:22.240 It wasn't the case in the English debate.

00:35:23.820 They didn't dominate that one.

00:35:26.480 I thought he was much better than his French performance.

00:35:28.940 But he's still not a natural politician.

00:35:31.080 It comes across, you know, he takes a long time to explain certain things.

00:35:34.800 He pauses in odd ways sometimes.

00:35:37.160 You know, these things can be ironed out over time.

00:35:40.040 But that's the problem.

00:35:41.580 He didn't have a lot of time.

00:35:42.960 The runway's really short.

00:35:44.720 So if that's the case, I think the issue will be then, do those debates matter?

00:35:49.960 Because if the issue is, who's the best person to take on Donald Trump?

00:35:53.480 Will people vote based on a debate of how well you perform in French?

00:35:57.460 Or, you know, whether you can trade insults with Pierre Polyev?

00:36:01.080 Or will they just say, you know what?

00:36:02.740 I trust that guy.

00:36:04.180 He's going to get my vote, even if he's not the best debater.

00:36:06.820 And so that, you know, that is the choice that we're facing.

00:36:11.260 The guy who, as you describe, is not a natural politician, you know, kind of this bland, boring banker.

00:36:18.900 And then on the other side, you've got this moody, kind of angry, Canada's broken guy who always auditions for the job he's got.

00:36:28.100 Like, as we're dealing with this literal existential crisis, which way do you think Canadians are going to go?

00:36:35.380 I think that they're going to give Carney a chance.

00:36:39.840 I don't know if he'll be able to pull off government.

00:36:42.360 But I think the Conservatives, definitely, it's not a given.

00:36:45.580 I would have said, as most people, a month and a half ago, it's a given.

00:36:48.620 It's a walk.

00:36:49.440 They're going to win.

00:36:50.140 But it's not that Trump changed the game.

00:36:53.900 It's what Trump did change the game.

00:36:55.920 I mean, Trump never talked about annexing Canada during his election campaign.

00:37:00.120 He talked about the border, and he talked about crime, and he talked about wokeism and stuff.

00:37:05.540 He talked about those things.

00:37:06.720 He never talked about Greenland and Panama.

00:37:08.660 He never had these grand ambitions.

00:37:10.480 And his tariffs that he did talk about, he didn't flesh them out.

00:37:14.560 He didn't say, I'm going to impose them one day, take them off the next day, put them back.

00:37:18.140 Oh, then we're going to tax Biden.

00:37:20.120 I mean, come on.

00:37:21.740 If you managed a corporation like that, as a CEO, you'd be fired.

00:37:25.080 It's not even good management.

00:37:26.920 So I think no one expected that.

00:37:28.820 So that's what's changed the game.

00:37:30.640 So that's what people are now looking for, is like, who?

00:37:32.980 So I think Carney is not the most exciting speaker and not the best debater.

00:37:38.080 But he is someone who can say, look, I understand how economies work.

00:37:41.580 And yeah, I'm a globalist.

00:37:42.940 And guess what?

00:37:43.460 You know what?

00:37:43.940 In this world, that's actually not a bad thing.

00:37:47.300 The whole anti-globalist rhetoric comes from who?

00:37:50.220 Donald Trump.

00:37:51.200 So every time Pierre Polyev starts saying, oh, he's a globalist.

00:37:54.720 Well, that's what Trump said in the Oval Office the other day.

00:37:57.860 He's like, yeah, I've got to get the globalists.

00:37:59.600 They're bad.

00:37:59.960 Like, you know what?

00:38:01.620 He's undoing the global world order in such a fast and frightening way.

00:38:06.400 He's the problem now, not the globalists.

00:38:08.580 So I think Carney has a lot of cards to play.

00:38:11.120 But we'll see, you know, also what happens in the next month.

00:38:14.540 Because anything could change more.

00:38:16.460 Like, you don't even know.

00:38:18.420 Well, in that regard, so Mr. Polyev, what can he change to become more competitive?

00:38:23.520 Because as you point out, he has lost a 30-point lead in a matter of weeks.

00:38:28.700 Like, it's just extraordinary how much ground he has lost.

00:38:32.740 What can he do to make up that lost ground?

00:38:35.940 Bring back Justin Trudeau?

00:38:37.280 No.

00:38:39.180 Convince him not to leave.

00:38:40.240 I think he's got to examine why he lost that 30 points.

00:38:44.640 And the first is that Trudeau left, and he can't change that.

00:38:47.500 He's gone.

00:38:48.060 He's got a new adversary.

00:38:49.340 The second is that people are turning against everything Trump represents.

00:38:54.620 So he has to pivot away from that, too.

00:38:56.780 He has to not, you know, rant on about the WEF and the globalism and sounding like Trump,

00:39:02.480 the style piece that he has.

00:39:04.320 Because that's the real place that people say you're like Trump, because a lot of his

00:39:08.120 policies aren't.

00:39:08.960 Some are, you know, stuff like on trans rights and stuff, he absolutely mirrors what Trump

00:39:13.700 said.

00:39:15.180 And that sort of thing before, I think a lot of people would have potentially agreed with

00:39:19.720 him and said, you know what, maybe things have gone too far.

00:39:22.000 But now it echoes, it sounds like what the other guy is saying.

00:39:26.260 And that's a problem for him, because it's going to provoke a reaction from people who say

00:39:30.720 you're just like Trump.

00:39:31.540 So he has to back off and he has to focus, I think, on how he would best fight for Canada.

00:39:37.400 And he is doing that.

00:39:38.860 But he also has a problem with his base, because, you know, they are the most likely to say,

00:39:43.600 like 18% of conservatives think we should be the 51st state.

00:39:46.900 Only 9% of overall Canadians do.

00:39:49.840 So, you know, there's a sense that perhaps his base is a tad MAGA, and other people don't

00:39:55.160 like that either.

00:39:56.080 So that's the thing he has to dispel.

00:39:57.940 But if he makes them mad, then he might lose them.

00:40:00.060 He's caught between a rock and a hard place.

00:40:02.320 He really is.

00:40:03.280 You know, it's his persona, his party, his policies, all those things that you point

00:40:08.080 out.

00:40:08.440 He really, he's in, you know, somebody in the Globe, I think, this morning wrote, the

00:40:13.920 conservatives are hitting the panic button.

00:40:15.900 I'm not sure that's the case.

00:40:17.200 You would know better than me.

00:40:19.040 But they've got to definitely be more nervous than they were just six weeks ago.

00:40:23.700 Yeah, they're not.

00:40:24.500 Panic would be, I think, a stretch.

00:40:26.540 It's more that they are internally, they have struggles.

00:40:31.120 And there are internal debates happening about, you know, what direction they should

00:40:34.420 take.

00:40:35.140 Because some will say, oh, we can't be liberal light.

00:40:38.960 That's not worked for us in the past.

00:40:41.100 Others are saying, but we have to make sure voters don't, the centrist voters don't flee

00:40:45.360 to the liberals.

00:40:46.720 Because they never really liked us that much to begin with.

00:40:49.380 And now they have someone they feel safer with.

00:40:51.140 Um, it's, it's a real, it's a real paradox.

00:40:54.700 And also they risk, you know, alienating the 3% of people that left the People's Party

00:40:59.920 in terms of total vote, right?

00:41:01.900 The People's Party had about 4% last election.

00:41:04.420 And they've got, they went to the conservatives.

00:41:06.200 That's not insignificant.

00:41:07.300 Because if they lose those people, or if they just don't show up, because now they think

00:41:10.780 Pierre is a sellout, because he's not MAGA.

00:41:12.880 Uh, there are ridings they could lose based on that.

00:41:16.220 So it, he's really, he's got to pick a lane.

00:41:20.260 That's basically what he has to do.

00:41:21.540 And he has to go in that lane and stay in it and make sure his, also his team doesn't

00:41:26.140 go offside.

00:41:26.740 Because that's another danger is that someone will say something wacko and he has to wear

00:41:29.760 it.

00:41:30.360 And always, that is always a danger for conservative campaigns is you get somebody in the backbench

00:41:35.440 torpedoes your campaign.

00:41:37.180 And, but anyway, for you and I in the commentariat, we're going to have lots of fun in the coming

00:41:42.600 weeks, because I think you're quite right.

00:41:44.280 I think we are going to have an election pretty fast and it's going to be exciting and fun.

00:41:48.240 And I'm most grateful for you giving us some time this weekend to talk about all of it.

00:41:52.900 Tasha, thank you.

00:41:54.160 Thanks, Warren.

00:41:54.760 I'll get back to my March break now too.

00:41:57.040 All right.

00:41:57.560 Enjoy it.

00:41:58.240 Bye-bye.

00:41:58.800 Thanks.

00:42:07.180 Bye-bye.

00:42:37.180 Bye-bye.

00:43:07.180 Bye-bye.

00:43:37.180 Bye-bye.

00:43:38.160 Bye-bye.

00:44:03.640 Life is resurrected, calls you in, calls you in Still your sweet decline, this is the longest

00:44:19.640 fight, hey can you get your pocket, yeah, bottles of gold, shit and something, kick the glass

00:44:44.320 The top of your path, calls you in, calls you in, calls you in Traps for your fingers, fire for your mouth

00:45:14.320 Stones for your passage, brass for your cheated on, deep beneath the baking fields and hardening the starless sky

00:45:44.320 Make your column bone clean, cold pacific shallow, spilt and filled and resurrected, come in the

00:46:14.300 Calls you in, calls you in, calls you in Still your sweet decline, this is the longest

00:46:25.900 goodbye, yeah, can you get your pocket, yeah, bottles of gold, shit and something, kick the glass,

00:46:36.300 love your way, yeah, can you get your pocket, yeah, can you get your pocket, yeah, can you get your

00:46:48.320 Killing the plans out of your way

00:46:52.720 I'll call you now, call you now, call you now

00:47:18.320 And we're back, and we're back at the Kinsella cast

00:47:26.520 with our stalwart, our muse, our great prognosticator, Brian Lilley

00:47:32.300 And Brian, welcome

00:47:34.360 We're getting together before the liberals figure out who their next leader is

00:47:39.920 I think we all

00:47:40.740 Mark Carney

00:47:41.220 You're excused

00:47:43.860 Yeah, I think we all know who it's going to be

00:47:47.240 However, on Friday night late, Kevin Vickers, who I regard as a hero

00:47:53.060 The guy who took out the Islamic terrorist who tried to assassinate a bunch of people on Parliament Hill many years ago

00:48:02.800 I didn't even know he was liberal, but he was trying to vote, and he talked about it on Twitter

00:48:09.300 And he said, I can't get through, and if old guys like me can't get through

00:48:15.380 And I guess there's tens of thousands of people

00:48:17.920 It could be an upset for an upstart campaign

00:48:21.200 I'll tell you what the upset is, okay, because this just landed in my inbox

00:48:28.160 And the inbox of every registered liberal within the last hour

00:48:31.860 It's over

00:48:33.800 Eddie Fry has written a letter

00:48:36.180 To Freeland

00:48:37.560 That's going to do it

00:48:40.340 It is a very complex system to verify your ID

00:48:45.360 And, you know, the liberals faced a lot of criticism because of their really loosey-goosey rules

00:48:53.380 And I think all the parties are way too loosey-goosey with the rules on who can vote in their contests

00:48:59.320 But the liberals were the loosiest of the goosiest

00:49:02.240 And so they were taking a lot of heat for that

00:49:06.720 Like, hey, buddy, you're picking the next prime minister

00:49:10.040 You need better

00:49:11.160 And so they turned around

00:49:12.800 And, you know, you can still be a 14-year-old foreign national

00:49:16.420 And vote to pick the next prime minister

00:49:18.400 But you're going to have to show your ID

00:49:20.500 And it's an online voting system

00:49:23.180 So that's very complex

00:49:24.160 There's apparently this Canada Post ID app

00:49:27.180 And it's very onerous

00:49:30.000 And difficult to use

00:49:31.720 And so 400,000 people registered as liberals

00:49:37.180 Only 150,000, I'm told, validated their ID

00:49:41.280 And we're at about 133,000 as of yesterday

00:49:45.240 Who voted

00:49:46.760 So, you know, Kevin Vickers is surmising

00:49:50.920 Maybe Carney's camp won't come out

00:49:54.800 I believe he signed up to vote for Carney

00:49:57.300 Vickers did

00:49:58.260 He's already a liberal

00:49:59.680 And, by the way, a very fine man

00:50:02.180 I used to

00:50:02.600 My office was in Center Block for five years

00:50:05.360 I used to see him when he was sergeant-at-arms all the time

00:50:08.120 Very dignified

00:50:08.960 Good man

00:50:09.920 But he says, well, if old guys like him can't vote

00:50:14.600 And that is Carney's demographic

00:50:16.140 When you look at any images or videos from his rallies

00:50:21.360 Older, white

00:50:23.660 Remember when that was a problem

00:50:25.960 At leadership rallies?

00:50:27.540 Yeah, I remember that

00:50:27.900 Oh, wait, that was only when it was Pierre Pauly

00:50:29.660 I'm drawing out older, white people

00:50:31.180 Carney gets this exact same demographic

00:50:34.240 And so he says, well, if us old farts can't figure it out

00:50:40.060 Maybe Karina Gould is an upset

00:50:42.240 I'm not sure about that

00:50:43.660 I was being spun by a Freeland supporter yesterday

00:50:47.360 That perhaps that could happen

00:50:49.880 That Freeland could sneak in

00:50:52.800 Because the turnout's going to be quite low

00:50:55.940 The truth is, we won't know

00:50:58.380 We expect Carney, but we don't know

00:51:00.020 I do want to point out a piece of foreign interference, though

00:51:03.460 Larry Summers, former Obama administration

00:51:06.300 Secretary of the Treasury

00:51:08.840 And monkey-muck at Harvard

00:51:10.880 Wrote a letter for Freeland as well

00:51:13.440 Saying, dear Canadian friends

00:51:14.740 I'm an American

00:51:15.600 I wish I could vote for Chrystia

00:51:18.040 It is a really weird race

00:51:20.440 Where it starts with Mark Carney going on Jon Stewart

00:51:23.120 Ends with Chrystia Freeland on Bill Maher

00:51:25.700 And Anderson Cooper

00:51:27.000 It's all things American

00:51:29.640 It's liberals American style

00:51:32.100 But maybe there's a reason for it, right?

00:51:34.480 The Trump thing has reordered our politics, obviously

00:51:38.880 It's not a revelation for me to say that

00:51:42.080 It's just been extraordinary over the past few weeks

00:51:47.020 What's happened in our politics

00:51:48.980 Have you ever seen anything like this before?

00:51:50.720 Where a U.S. president basically took the, you know

00:51:54.540 The Canadian politics and turned it on its head?

00:51:58.320 Turned it on its head in so many ways

00:52:00.060 Noah Richler is writing positive pieces about Doug Ford

00:52:03.760 In the Washington Post

00:52:05.000 While saying that, you know, he ran for the left-wing MVP

00:52:10.800 Back in 2015

00:52:12.060 But he finds himself cheering for Doug Ford

00:52:15.120 Yeah

00:52:17.260 I mean, we'll talk about the polls quickly

00:52:19.760 Leger is the pollster for Post Media

00:52:22.060 And they were the one that dropped the bombshell a little while ago

00:52:26.620 Saying a Carney-led liberals would be ahead

00:52:29.280 And, you know, I don't

00:52:31.600 People know why you and I don't trust ECOS

00:52:34.240 But Leger came out with a poll saying

00:52:38.000 Carney-led liberals would win

00:52:39.620 And if it's still Justin Trudeau or somebody else

00:52:43.140 Then it's like a three-point gap

00:52:45.000 And then Ipsos came out and said

00:52:47.620 Liberals ahead by two with Carney at the top

00:52:50.200 But Leger is now back to 43-30

00:52:53.480 And I remember saying to you

00:52:55.420 That there were a couple of things that I didn't think would hold

00:52:59.040 Or there were oddities in that first Leger poll

00:53:02.360 One was the liberals being at 40% in Quebec

00:53:07.680 And the Bloc Québécois being down at 24%

00:53:12.000 Tied with the conservatives

00:53:13.360 Now, if the conservatives do really, really well

00:53:16.280 They could hit 24%

00:53:17.480 But I don't think they will

00:53:18.480 I think they'll hit maybe 20%

00:53:21.220 If Pierre has a good campaign

00:53:22.640 If not, they'll drop back down to 16%

00:53:25.060 Win their seats in the Quebec City area

00:53:26.720 And that's it

00:53:27.280 But there's no way that the liberals under anybody

00:53:30.400 Are at 40% in Quebec

00:53:34.920 And the Bloc is at 24%

00:53:36.340 They have not hit 40% in Quebec in a very long time

00:53:40.420 And in B.C.

00:53:41.920 The Leger poll had them at 50%

00:53:44.280 Their high watermark in the last several decades

00:53:46.780 Has been 35% in B.C.

00:53:49.420 Which has been a three-way race for a long time

00:53:52.240 35% in 2015 under Justin Trudeau

00:53:55.480 So the difference in the poll

00:53:58.000 Of why it's back to 43-30

00:53:59.880 In favor of the conservatives

00:54:01.160 Those two numbers, Quebec and B.C.

00:54:03.620 Dropped back down to normal

00:54:04.800 And everything else stayed the same

00:54:06.260 So it is tightening up

00:54:08.240 And if it's Carney-led liberals

00:54:10.680 It goes to 41-33, I think

00:54:14.580 Still a majority

00:54:15.940 Under Leger

00:54:17.700 The only one with the recent poll

00:54:20.100 Saying the liberals are ahead

00:54:22.040 Are ECOS

00:54:22.920 And, well

00:54:23.560 Take those with a dose of gummies

00:54:27.480 Yeah, well there's been lots of odds making

00:54:30.240 Probably all legal now

00:54:32.840 To do that

00:54:33.360 You can bet on anything these days

00:54:34.960 But, you know, the odds

00:54:36.760 As you point out

00:54:37.760 Do favor the Tories

00:54:39.100 That the, you know

00:54:40.140 It says the liberals have

00:54:41.600 Whatever percentage shot

00:54:43.240 At a minority

00:54:44.000 The Tories have a shot

00:54:46.800 At a minority

00:54:47.480 But the conservatives

00:54:49.220 Have got a much bigger shot

00:54:50.960 The odds favor them

00:54:52.440 To get a majority

00:54:53.640 But let's say

00:54:54.780 I forgot you can bet on politics

00:54:56.340 These days

00:54:56.800 Yeah

00:54:57.100 You pointed that out to me

00:54:58.560 Yeah, you bet on the

00:54:59.960 Ontario election results

00:55:01.040 It's just ridiculous

00:55:01.900 But let's say

00:55:03.440 Pierre Polyev

00:55:05.240 You know, who told us

00:55:07.720 For a long time

00:55:08.300 He was running to BPM

00:55:09.460 What if he just gets a minority

00:55:11.680 What do you think

00:55:12.740 The liberals

00:55:13.320 Under Carney

00:55:14.720 Presumably

00:55:15.480 The NDP

00:55:16.800 The Bloc

00:55:17.520 Will they give him

00:55:18.780 Much room to live

00:55:20.140 Like happen with

00:55:21.920 Stephen Harper years

00:55:23.240 Or do they

00:55:24.300 Kill the government

00:55:25.620 Right away

00:55:26.100 Like happen with

00:55:27.100 Doug

00:55:27.340 Joe Clark

00:55:28.320 No, I think it always depends

00:55:30.840 You know

00:55:31.780 How strong a minority

00:55:33.620 What is the

00:55:36.220 The feeling

00:55:37.840 Of the population

00:55:39.400 Things like that

00:55:41.200 I think that's what

00:55:42.300 It ends up coming down to

00:55:43.540 So

00:55:45.640 You know

00:55:46.440 Is it

00:55:47.940 A very strong minority

00:55:49.680 Where they're only

00:55:50.300 Off by two seats

00:55:51.720 I think

00:55:53.600 When that sort of

00:55:54.460 Things happens

00:55:55.260 That

00:55:57.140 No, Chloe

00:55:58.240 Chloe's jumped up

00:55:59.360 In my lap

00:55:59.860 Trying to remove

00:56:01.340 Is she trying to vote

00:56:03.500 Yeah

00:56:04.800 She's trying to vote

00:56:05.740 She's trying to move

00:56:06.840 The laptop

00:56:07.360 She paused at the screen

00:56:08.620 And tried to get it to move

00:56:09.640 So

00:56:10.920 You know

00:56:11.600 If it's

00:56:12.120 A very weak minority

00:56:13.840 Elizabeth May

00:56:15.040 Is already talking about

00:56:16.040 Forming a coalition

00:56:17.160 With the NDP

00:56:17.920 And liberals

00:56:19.120 To ensure the conservatives

00:56:20.260 Don't govern

00:56:21.020 If

00:56:22.640 You know

00:56:23.700 As I say

00:56:24.540 If it's like a two seat thing

00:56:25.880 And the mood of the country

00:56:26.960 Is

00:56:27.620 Still in the direction

00:56:29.060 Of change

00:56:29.640 Then

00:56:29.960 They probably let them

00:56:31.320 Govern for a little bit

00:56:32.380 So

00:56:34.380 The

00:56:34.680 This week

00:56:36.380 For you

00:56:37.560 And I

00:56:38.200 And anybody

00:56:39.060 In the journalistic

00:56:40.240 Trade

00:56:40.940 Has been crazy

00:56:43.480 Rollercoaster

00:56:44.520 Does not begin

00:56:45.320 To describe it

00:56:46.440 Tariffs

00:56:48.140 No tariffs

00:56:48.860 Tariffs

00:56:49.340 No tariffs

00:56:50.080 I think we ended the week

00:56:51.500 With

00:56:52.460 No tariffs

00:56:53.280 But then some tariffs

00:56:54.740 The markets

00:56:57.100 Are

00:56:57.940 Very unhappy

00:57:00.080 Forget about

00:57:00.740 What Canada

00:57:01.720 And China

00:57:02.400 And Mexico

00:57:02.900 Think

00:57:03.340 The markets

00:57:04.440 Lost trillions

00:57:05.940 With a T

00:57:07.100 In value

00:57:08.360 This week

00:57:09.700 Presumably

00:57:11.400 That's something

00:57:12.020 That Donald Trump

00:57:12.720 Still pays attention to

00:57:14.040 Looking at your

00:57:15.820 Crystal ball

00:57:16.460 What do you see ahead

00:57:17.720 For this

00:57:18.260 This file

00:57:19.280 Do you think that

00:57:19.980 The Americans

00:57:20.920 Are going to back off a bit

00:57:22.240 Or

00:57:22.740 You know

00:57:23.360 Do you think

00:57:23.780 It's going to continue

00:57:24.620 To be chaos

00:57:25.400 I wrote a

00:57:28.140 Column

00:57:28.720 On

00:57:29.380 Wednesday

00:57:30.460 Or Thursday

00:57:31.140 Talking about

00:57:32.740 All the different

00:57:33.540 Positions

00:57:34.040 That the Americans

00:57:34.800 Had

00:57:35.260 I wrote it

00:57:35.880 In the morning

00:57:36.400 Published and posted

00:57:38.400 Around nine

00:57:39.340 And by noon

00:57:41.020 To one p.m.

00:57:42.380 I had to change it again

00:57:43.420 Because they changed

00:57:44.700 Their minds yet again

00:57:45.660 You've got

00:57:47.600 Navarro out

00:57:48.540 Saying

00:57:48.940 This is about

00:57:49.780 Fentanyl

00:57:50.340 And you've got

00:57:51.100 Hassett

00:57:51.560 Who's I think

00:57:52.760 Probably the smartest

00:57:54.040 Advisor around

00:57:54.920 Trump on economics

00:57:55.940 Based on

00:57:57.100 You know

00:57:57.820 Just what I hear

00:57:58.920 From each of them

00:57:59.980 With their media

00:58:00.640 Appearance

00:58:01.080 He says it's about

00:58:02.280 Fentanyl

00:58:03.440 Lutnik says

00:58:04.600 It's about

00:58:05.180 Reciprocal tariffs

00:58:06.100 And it's about

00:58:07.260 Respect

00:58:09.200 And then

00:58:10.920 Levitt

00:58:11.860 The spokesperson

00:58:12.400 Starts saying

00:58:13.320 Things about

00:58:14.420 The 51st state

00:58:15.320 And then Trump

00:58:16.120 Says something

00:58:16.680 Different

00:58:17.080 You know

00:58:18.700 They put a

00:58:19.700 Pause on

00:58:20.660 The tariffs

00:58:21.420 And on

00:58:23.080 I guess that was

00:58:23.820 Thursday

00:58:24.280 So it was Thursday

00:58:25.120 I had to

00:58:25.860 Reto the column

00:58:26.820 Twice

00:58:27.260 They put a

00:58:29.840 Pause on

00:58:30.300 Some but not

00:58:30.940 All

00:58:31.220 And then on

00:58:33.540 Friday

00:58:33.900 Trump was saying

00:58:34.980 They're very

00:58:36.580 Bad to us

00:58:37.200 They're ripping us

00:58:37.760 Off on dairy

00:58:38.380 And lumber

00:58:38.840 And

00:58:40.080 I've said to you

00:58:42.220 Before

00:58:42.580 How we handle

00:58:44.580 The dairy file

00:58:45.320 Is a big problem

00:58:46.400 And we've got

00:58:47.400 To grow up

00:58:47.980 And deal with

00:58:48.440 It properly

00:58:48.920 Which doesn't

00:58:50.740 Mean get rid

00:58:51.200 Of supply

00:58:51.560 Management

00:58:52.000 But we've

00:58:52.580 Got to

00:58:53.120 Do something

00:58:54.260 So that the

00:58:54.800 Americans don't

00:58:55.400 Feel like we're

00:58:55.940 Trying to

00:58:56.180 Screw them

00:58:56.660 And cock

00:58:57.080 Walk them

00:58:57.460 At every

00:58:57.780 Turn

00:58:58.060 Which is

00:58:58.400 What we

00:58:58.700 Do

00:58:58.980 They negotiate

00:59:01.000 A certain

00:59:01.540 Amount of

00:59:01.900 Access

00:59:02.160 And then we

00:59:02.680 Screw them

00:59:03.060 Over

00:59:03.300 We have to

00:59:05.200 Do

00:59:05.360 Fix that

00:59:06.300 Or the

00:59:07.140 Whole deal

00:59:07.560 Is going to

00:59:07.860 Blow up

00:59:08.200 But on

00:59:08.720 Friday

00:59:09.000 Trump

00:59:09.300 Starts saying

00:59:09.880 Tariffs on

00:59:10.700 Canadian

00:59:11.200 Dairy and

00:59:11.700 Lumber

00:59:11.940 As of

00:59:12.320 Monday

00:59:12.580 Or

00:59:13.300 Tuesday

00:59:13.600 Maybe

00:59:13.960 It'll be

00:59:14.280 Tuesday

00:59:14.580 So I

00:59:15.560 Mean

00:59:15.680 You can't

00:59:16.820 Figure it

00:59:17.880 Out

00:59:18.100 We're

00:59:19.300 Going to

00:59:19.660 Have to

00:59:19.920 Deal with

00:59:20.220 What he

00:59:20.500 Does

00:59:20.820 Not what

00:59:21.180 He says

00:59:21.620 As you've

00:59:22.220 Been advocating

00:59:22.800 For a while

00:59:23.460 And that's

00:59:24.700 Why when I

00:59:25.120 Had

00:59:25.360 I filled in

00:59:26.380 For jerry

00:59:26.840 Agar on

00:59:27.360 1010

00:59:27.840 On friday

00:59:29.040 Here in

00:59:30.160 Toronto

00:59:30.460 And I

00:59:31.620 Had

00:59:31.960 Both

00:59:32.780 Pierre

00:59:33.040 Polly

00:59:33.340 If he

00:59:33.720 Came in

00:59:34.100 Studio

00:59:34.480 And doug

00:59:35.780 Ford

00:59:36.100 Phoned in

00:59:36.680 And i

00:59:36.940 Talked to

00:59:37.300 Both of

00:59:37.660 About how

00:59:39.120 Do we

00:59:39.320 Restructure

00:59:39.840 Our economy

00:59:40.420 What do

00:59:40.880 We have

00:59:41.180 To do

00:59:41.540 To ensure

00:59:42.200 That we

00:59:42.620 Are

00:59:42.880 Resilient

00:59:44.780 And

00:59:45.640 Competitive

00:59:47.000 Beyond

00:59:47.760 Retaliatory

00:59:48.880 Tariffs

00:59:49.260 It is

00:59:49.900 Going to

00:59:50.080 Be four

00:59:50.480 Years

00:59:50.880 Of

00:59:51.040 Doing

00:59:51.620 Things

00:59:51.960 But also

00:59:52.400 As we

00:59:52.820 Discussed

00:59:53.300 Before

00:59:53.680 Him

00:59:54.360 Changing

00:59:54.700 His

00:59:54.940 Own

00:59:55.100 Economy

00:59:55.520 So

00:59:55.900 They both

00:59:57.300 Had

00:59:57.460 Really

00:59:57.720 Good

00:59:57.920 Answers

00:59:58.320 They're

00:59:58.540 Headed

00:59:58.820 In

00:59:58.940 The

00:59:59.060 Same

00:59:59.240 Direction

00:59:59.800 It's

01:00:00.280 The

01:00:00.420 Opposite

01:00:00.840 Direction

01:00:01.260 Of

01:00:01.420 Where

01:00:01.560 Mark

01:00:01.800 Carney

01:00:02.100 Wants

01:00:02.380 To

01:00:02.540 Go

01:00:02.760 Carney

01:00:03.440 Is

01:00:03.640 Not

01:00:03.880 In

01:00:04.000 Favor

01:00:04.300 Pipelines

01:00:05.520 Or

01:00:06.100 LNG

01:00:06.700 Exports

01:00:07.400 You know

01:00:08.320 Everything

01:00:08.840 That

01:00:09.140 Even

01:00:09.720 Folks

01:00:10.080 That

01:00:10.240 Were

01:00:10.400 Pretty

01:00:11.440 On

01:00:11.660 Board

01:00:11.920 With

01:00:12.100 The

01:00:12.240 Trudeau

01:00:12.680 Economic

01:00:13.240 Policy

01:00:13.820 And

01:00:14.320 Switch

01:00:14.800 Since

01:00:15.160 Trump

01:00:15.420 Happened

01:00:15.940 Carney

01:00:16.580 Not

01:00:16.900 He

01:00:17.420 He's

01:00:17.900 Like

01:00:18.140 Leave

01:00:18.440 In

01:00:18.660 The

01:00:18.740 Ground

01:00:19.100 We

01:00:19.920 Will

01:00:20.180 Have

01:00:20.560 Every

01:00:20.980 Business

01:00:21.520 Reporting

01:00:22.000 On

01:00:22.200 Carbon

01:00:22.620 Risk

01:00:23.140 And

01:00:23.740 We

01:00:24.080 Will

01:00:24.220 Go

01:00:24.380 Forward

01:00:24.720 With

01:00:24.920 Net

01:00:25.140 Zero

01:00:25.420 Banking

01:00:26.060 So

01:00:26.320 That

01:00:26.520 Pipelines

01:00:27.680 Can

01:00:27.860 Never

01:00:28.060 Be

01:00:28.260 Financed

01:00:28.720 That's

01:00:29.340 Where

01:00:29.460 His

01:00:29.720 Head

01:00:30.040 And

01:00:30.520 I

01:00:30.660 Don't

01:00:30.860 Understand

01:00:31.380 But

01:00:31.720 Why

01:00:32.180 Like

01:00:32.560 It

01:00:32.720 Just

01:00:32.940 There

01:00:33.460 Is

01:00:33.620 Actually

01:00:34.000 Now

01:00:34.300 A

01:00:34.480 Consensus

01:00:35.080 Around

01:00:35.580 This

01:00:35.840 As

01:00:36.060 You

01:00:36.160 Point

01:00:36.460 Out

01:00:36.820 You

01:00:37.360 Know

01:00:37.500 Even

01:00:37.820 Those

01:00:38.180 On

01:00:38.380 The

01:00:38.680 Left

01:00:39.500 You

01:00:39.920 Know

01:00:40.100 Even

01:00:40.620 Those

01:00:40.880 In

01:00:41.020 The

01:00:41.140 NDP

01:00:41.560 Saying

01:00:42.160 We're

01:00:42.840 A

01:00:43.020 Resource

01:00:43.500 Country

01:00:44.200 And

01:00:44.920 We've

01:00:45.140 Got

01:00:45.280 To

01:00:45.400 Get

01:00:45.560 Away

01:00:45.840 From

01:00:46.120 This

01:00:46.440 Notion

01:00:46.860 Of

01:00:47.060 Leaving

01:00:47.380 Our

01:00:47.680 Resources

01:00:48.280 In

01:00:48.680 The

01:00:48.800 Ground

01:00:49.180 Because

01:00:50.060 It's

01:00:50.360 It's

01:00:50.640 Hurting

01:00:51.000 Us

01:00:51.240 We

01:00:51.400 Now

01:00:51.660 Need

01:00:52.020 Those

01:00:52.280 Resources

01:00:52.880 To

01:00:53.260 Forge

01:00:53.680 A

01:00:54.160 Different

01:00:54.420 Kind

01:00:54.680 Of

01:00:54.780 Economy

01:00:55.180 I

01:00:55.660 Don't

01:00:55.980 Understand

01:00:56.480 Is

01:00:57.220 There

01:00:57.380 Something

01:00:57.740 That

01:00:58.000 We're

01:00:58.200 Missing

01:00:58.740 Why

01:00:59.340 Carney

01:00:59.800 Is

01:01:00.060 Sticking

01:01:00.540 To

01:01:00.820 The

01:01:01.020 Old

01:01:01.240 Way

01:01:01.420 Of

01:01:01.540 Doing

01:01:01.700 Things

01:01:02.160 I

01:01:03.380 Think

01:01:03.840 It's

01:01:04.080 Just

01:01:04.380 Like

01:01:05.320 A

01:01:05.460 Religious

01:01:05.860 Fervor

01:01:06.300 Commitment

01:01:06.880 He's

01:01:07.460 Got

01:01:08.120 Religion

01:01:08.540 On

01:01:08.820 This

01:01:09.040 File

01:01:09.460 And

01:01:10.100 I

01:01:10.820 Know

01:01:11.000 In

01:01:11.460 Western

01:01:12.040 Canada

01:01:12.520 He

01:01:12.820 Made

01:01:13.040 It

01:01:13.160 Sound

01:01:13.400 Like

01:01:13.600 He

01:01:13.700 Wanted

01:01:13.960 Pipelines

01:01:14.420 He

01:01:14.580 Talks

01:01:14.860 About

01:01:15.060 Build

01:01:15.400 Baby

01:01:15.760 Build

01:01:16.240 But

01:01:16.800 Doesn't

01:01:17.040 Say

01:01:17.220 What

01:01:17.520 And

01:01:18.640 Then

01:01:19.000 Talks

01:01:19.320 More

01:01:19.520 About

01:01:19.780 Renewable

01:01:21.500 Energy

01:01:22.000 Which

01:01:22.380 Look

01:01:23.020 Is

01:01:24.180 Part

01:01:24.440 Of

01:01:24.520 The

01:01:24.620 Mix

01:01:24.820 Already

01:01:25.220 Will

01:01:25.460 Continue

01:01:25.960 To

01:01:26.160 Be

01:01:26.400 But

01:01:27.060 It's

01:01:27.280 Much

01:01:27.520 More

01:01:27.740 Expensive

01:01:28.320 We

01:01:29.000 Can't

01:01:29.280 Export

01:01:29.660 It

01:01:29.800 The

01:01:29.920 Way

01:01:30.020 We

01:01:30.180 Can

01:01:30.420 Oil

01:01:30.880 Or

01:01:31.180 Electricity

01:01:31.960 Or

01:01:32.160 Natural

01:01:32.500 Gas

01:01:32.940 And

01:01:34.580 It

01:01:34.740 Cost

01:01:35.100 A

01:01:35.300 Hell

01:01:35.440 Of

01:01:35.560 A

01:01:35.640 Lot

01:01:35.860 So

01:01:36.240 He

01:01:36.520 Says

01:01:36.940 One

01:01:37.180 Thing

01:01:37.360 In

01:01:37.500 Western

01:01:37.780 Canada

01:01:38.280 Tells

01:01:39.100 Quebec

01:01:39.380 No

01:01:39.600 I'll

01:01:39.760 Never

01:01:39.940 Put

01:01:40.140 A

01:01:40.240 Pipeline

01:01:40.620 Through

01:01:40.900 It's

01:01:44.160 Like

01:01:44.940 We

01:01:45.800 Need

01:01:46.060 To

01:01:46.220 Break

01:01:46.560 Away

01:01:46.980 From

01:01:47.460 The

01:01:47.720 Economic

01:01:48.180 Policy

01:01:48.640 That

01:01:48.860 Got

01:01:49.120 Us

01:01:49.360 Here

01:01:49.620 And

01:01:50.420 Carney

01:01:51.100 Is

01:01:51.220 No

01:01:51.340 Different

01:01:51.600 Than

01:01:51.820 Trudeau

01:01:52.200 So

01:01:52.420 Still

01:01:53.440 Think

01:01:53.660 We

01:01:53.780 Need

01:01:53.960 An

01:01:54.080 Election

01:01:54.440 What

01:01:55.980 I'm

01:01:56.220 Hearing

01:01:56.460 Is

01:01:56.860 Transition

01:01:58.920 March

01:01:59.200 11th

01:01:59.600 Or

01:01:59.680 12th

01:02:00.340 Smaller

01:02:00.980 Cabinet

01:02:01.360 If

01:02:01.980 Carney

01:02:02.240 Wins

01:02:02.760 Dominic

01:02:04.760 LeBlanc

01:02:05.140 Stays

01:02:05.400 At

01:02:05.540 Finance

01:02:06.080 And

01:02:07.260 Then

01:02:07.460 They'll

01:02:07.680 Be

01:02:07.840 Looking

01:02:08.120 To

01:02:08.460 Be

01:02:08.820 A

01:02:09.000 Very

01:02:09.240 Short

01:02:09.720 Cabinet

01:02:10.580 Swearing

01:02:10.960 In

01:02:11.160 Because

01:02:11.760 It

01:02:12.460 Could

01:02:12.580 Be

01:02:12.720 Calling

01:02:12.980 The

01:02:13.160 Election

01:02:13.400 March

01:02:13.680 16th

01:02:14.340 Or

01:02:14.540 The

01:02:14.680 23rd

01:02:15.280 But

01:02:15.460 Don't

01:02:15.680 Expect

01:02:15.980 Parliament

01:02:16.380 To

01:02:16.600 Come

01:02:16.760 Back

01:02:16.960 On

01:02:17.100 The

01:02:17.200 24th

01:02:18.020 So

01:02:18.300 As

01:02:18.480 You've

01:02:18.660 Just

01:02:18.820 Pointed

01:02:19.080 Out

01:02:19.280 There's

01:02:19.500 All

01:02:19.700 Kinds

01:02:20.020 Of

01:02:20.140 Stuff

01:02:20.360 Going

01:02:20.660 On

01:02:20.960 So

01:02:21.180 Maybe

01:02:21.440 As

01:02:21.700 A

01:02:21.980 Final

01:02:22.480 Point

01:02:23.020 For

01:02:23.220 Us

01:02:23.420 To

01:02:23.620 Discuss

01:02:24.160 You know

01:02:26.540 It's

01:02:26.840 Almost

01:02:27.060 Being

01:02:27.480 Forgotten

01:02:28.020 In

01:02:28.160 The

01:02:28.260 Mix

01:02:28.480 A

01:02:28.660 Little

01:02:28.820 Bit

01:02:29.080 This

01:02:30.000 Is

01:02:30.120 The

01:02:30.220 End

01:02:30.460 Of

01:02:30.580 The

01:02:30.700 Justin

01:02:31.040 Trudeau

01:02:31.540 Era

01:02:31.820 This

01:02:32.460 Guy

01:02:32.760 That

01:02:33.040 You

01:02:33.320 And

01:02:33.460 I

01:02:33.620 Have

01:02:33.760 Been

01:02:33.880 Writing

01:02:34.180 About

01:02:34.600 Not

01:02:35.720 Just

01:02:35.920 For

01:02:36.080 A

01:02:36.160 Decade

01:02:36.320 For

01:02:36.520 More

01:02:36.780 Than

01:02:36.960 A

01:02:37.120 Decade

01:02:37.520 You

01:02:37.800 Be

01:02:38.180 Be

01:02:38.260 Be

01:02:38.280 Be

01:02:38.580 Liberal

01:02:39.080 leader

01:02:39.380 In

01:02:39.580 April

01:02:40.420 Of

01:02:41.920 What

01:02:42.800 2013

01:02:43.520 Right

01:02:44.440 So

01:02:44.680 He's

01:02:44.960 He's

01:02:45.380 Been

01:02:45.500 There

01:02:45.620 A

01:02:45.780 Long

01:02:45.980 Time

01:02:46.240 I

01:02:46.700 Help

01:02:46.960 Put

01:02:47.200 Him

01:02:47.320 There

01:02:47.540 That

01:02:48.000 Boxing

01:02:49.580 Match

01:02:49.940 Yeah

01:02:50.180 We're

01:02:50.420 Going

01:02:50.520 To

01:02:50.540 Have

01:02:50.680 Patrick

01:02:51.020 Briseau

01:02:51.460 On

01:02:51.720 The

01:02:52.060 Podcast

01:02:53.080 Next

01:02:53.580 Week

01:02:53.800 He's

01:02:54.040 Going

01:02:54.140 To

01:02:54.220 Talk

01:02:54.420 About

01:02:54.600 That

01:02:54.900 And

01:02:55.180 His

01:02:55.740 Challenge

01:02:56.180 To

01:02:56.420 Donald

01:02:56.660 Trump

01:02:56.940 Junior

01:02:57.260 But

01:02:58.100 You

01:02:59.540 Know

01:02:59.760 I

01:03:01.320 I've

01:03:01.840 Tried

01:03:02.100 To

01:03:02.240 Find

01:03:02.420 Some

01:03:02.740 Nice

01:03:03.120 Things

01:03:03.400 To

01:03:03.580 Say

01:03:03.800 About

01:03:04.220 Justin

01:03:05.300 Trudeau

01:03:05.780 In

01:03:06.100 My

01:03:06.620 Column

01:03:07.060 In

01:03:07.260 Post

01:03:07.520 Media

01:03:07.840 This

01:03:08.180 Weekend

01:03:08.780 What

01:03:09.780 Is

01:03:09.960 What's

01:03:10.480 Your

01:03:10.600 Take

01:03:10.840 Just

01:03:11.060 Looking

01:03:11.340 Back

01:03:11.800 Over

01:03:12.420 The

01:03:12.820 History

01:03:13.180 Of

01:03:13.360 This

01:03:13.560 Man

01:03:13.860 The

01:03:14.120 History

01:03:14.560 Of

01:03:14.820 His

01:03:15.140 Leadership

01:03:15.640 What

01:03:16.440 Would

01:03:16.640 You

01:03:16.780 Want

01:03:17.140 People

01:03:17.680 To

01:03:18.400 Know

01:03:18.660 About

01:03:18.960 What

01:03:19.260 You

01:03:19.480 Think

01:03:19.880 About

01:03:20.520 How

01:03:20.780 He

01:03:21.020 Did

01:03:21.280 And

01:03:21.500 How

01:03:21.780 He

01:03:22.000 Didn't

01:03:22.340 Do

01:03:22.580 Long

01:03:26.200 Pass

01:03:26.640 He's

01:03:27.180 Left

01:03:27.480 His

01:03:28.660 Country

01:03:29.000 Incredibly

01:03:29.660 Divided

01:03:30.360 Western

01:03:31.800 Alienation

01:03:32.580 Is

01:03:32.800 Up

01:03:33.020 Support

01:03:33.740 For

01:03:33.980 Separatist

01:03:34.400 Parties

01:03:34.860 In

01:03:35.020 Quebec

01:03:35.320 Is

01:03:35.520 Up

01:03:35.780 The

01:03:39.180 There

01:03:40.780 Are

01:03:40.920 People

01:03:41.300 And

01:03:41.780 I

01:03:42.360 Experienced

01:03:42.900 Them

01:03:43.040 Online

01:03:43.400 And

01:03:43.580 I'm

01:03:43.760 Sure

01:03:43.920 You

01:03:44.140 Do

01:03:44.320 Too

01:03:44.620 Who

01:03:45.040 Were

01:03:45.120 So

01:03:45.340 Angry

01:03:45.840 About

01:03:46.140 Trudeau

01:03:46.620 In

01:03:47.160 The

01:03:47.260 Last

01:03:47.500 Update

01:03:47.800 That

01:03:47.980 They're

01:03:48.160 Willing

01:03:48.420 To

01:03:48.560 Cheer

01:03:48.820 Against

01:03:49.200 Their

01:03:49.560 Own

01:03:49.720 Country

01:03:50.140 While

01:03:51.960 He's

01:03:52.280 In

01:03:52.420 Office

01:03:52.700 Because

01:03:53.240 Well

01:03:53.880 He

01:03:54.640 Needs

01:03:54.920 To

01:03:55.060 Go

01:03:55.300 He

01:03:56.080 Stayed

01:03:56.460 Too

01:03:56.660 Long

01:03:56.940 He

01:03:59.100 Should

01:03:59.420 Have

01:03:59.700 Solidified

01:04:00.500 Some

01:04:00.760 Of

01:04:00.880 The

01:04:01.020 Things

01:04:01.260 That

01:04:01.480 He

01:04:01.860 Wanted

01:04:02.780 As

01:04:02.920 His

01:04:03.080 Legacy

01:04:03.460 Like

01:04:04.180 His

01:04:04.320 Child

01:04:04.580 Care

01:04:04.800 Program

01:04:05.460 He

01:04:05.700 Did

01:04:06.060 An

01:04:06.220 Announcement

01:04:06.660 This

01:04:06.940 Week

01:04:07.160 On

01:04:07.400 It

01:04:07.500 He's

01:04:07.740 Still

01:04:07.900 Making

01:04:08.200 Announcements

01:04:08.800 That

01:04:09.040 He's

01:04:09.320 In

01:04:09.800 Full

01:04:10.060 Control

01:04:10.400 Of

01:04:10.580 The

01:04:10.680 Government

01:04:11.000 When

01:04:11.260 He's

01:04:11.400 Not

01:04:11.720 Yeah

01:04:12.200 But

01:04:12.720 The

01:04:13.100 The

01:04:13.480 Ten

01:04:13.680 Dollar

01:04:13.920 A

01:04:14.080 Day

01:04:14.180 Child

01:04:14.480 Care

01:04:14.660 Deal

01:04:14.920 He

01:04:15.080 Had

01:04:15.200 To

01:04:15.280 Put

01:04:15.440 More

01:04:15.620 Money

01:04:15.940 Into

01:04:16.200 It

01:04:16.360 And

01:04:16.540 Every

01:04:16.980 Province

01:04:17.460 Is

01:04:18.220 Still

01:04:18.440 Saying

01:04:18.780 It's

01:04:19.400 Not

01:04:19.600 Enough

01:04:20.000 It's

01:04:20.300 A

01:04:20.420 Structural

01:04:20.920 Deficit

01:04:21.640 That

01:04:22.440 Includes

01:04:23.240 Liberal

01:04:23.620 Premiers

01:04:24.360 New

01:04:24.840 Democrat

01:04:25.260 Premiers

01:04:25.860 And

01:04:26.100 Doug

01:04:26.560 Ford

01:04:26.880 Who

01:04:27.100 Worked

01:04:27.520 Very

01:04:27.760 Closely

01:04:28.160 With

01:04:28.440 Them

01:04:28.580 Said

01:04:28.840 We're

01:04:36.940 He

01:04:37.460 Was

01:04:37.640 Very

01:04:37.900 Bad

01:04:38.280 At

01:04:38.520 Delivering

01:04:39.000 On

01:04:39.620 His

01:04:40.100 Policies

01:04:40.800 He's

01:04:41.220 Very

01:04:41.440 Good

01:04:41.620 At

01:04:41.760 Talking

01:04:42.080 About

01:04:42.360 Them

01:04:42.600 But

01:04:43.280 This

01:04:43.480 Was

01:04:43.640 A

01:04:43.780 Government

01:04:44.100 That

01:04:44.360 Relied

01:04:44.720 On

01:04:44.900 Communications

01:04:45.580 And

01:04:46.020 Not

01:04:46.260 Strong

01:04:46.660 Ministers

01:04:47.160 Getting

01:04:48.100 Things

01:04:48.480 Done

01:04:48.860 Which

01:04:49.540 Is

01:04:49.660 What

01:04:49.800 The

01:04:49.940 Guy

01:04:50.120 That

01:04:50.280 You

01:04:50.480 Worked

01:04:50.760 For

01:04:51.020 Relied

01:04:51.700 On

01:04:52.000 What

01:04:52.620 Stephen

01:04:53.100 Harper

01:04:53.460 Relied

01:04:54.500 On

01:04:54.740 They

01:04:55.080 Were

01:04:55.580 About

01:04:55.900 Posing

01:04:56.780 Not

01:04:57.340 Delivering

01:04:57.960 Yeah

01:04:59.800 The

01:05:00.220 Deliverology

01:05:01.060 That

01:05:01.580 They

01:05:02.020 Talked

01:05:02.400 About

01:05:02.800 At

01:05:03.520 The

01:05:03.680 Start

01:05:03.940 It's

01:05:04.520 Hilarious

01:05:04.920 When

01:05:05.200 You

01:05:06.940 An

01:05:07.080 Expert

01:05:07.340 In

01:05:07.660 Something

01:05:07.960 Called

01:05:08.360 Deliverology

01:05:09.200 Yeah

01:05:09.740 It

01:05:09.840 Was

01:05:10.000 Kind

01:05:10.220 Of

01:05:10.320 Farcical

01:05:11.580 But

01:05:12.380 He

01:05:12.540 Didn't

01:05:13.120 Deliver

01:05:13.460 Much

01:05:13.820 You

01:05:13.980 Know

01:05:14.060 I

01:05:14.180 Sat

01:05:14.420 Down

01:05:14.660 And

01:05:14.780 I

01:05:14.900 Gave

01:05:15.100 Him

01:05:15.260 Credit

01:05:15.640 For

01:05:16.060 You

01:05:16.900 Know

01:05:16.980 The

01:05:17.160 Child

01:05:17.520 Canada

01:05:18.480 Child

01:05:18.820 Benefit

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01:05:56.080 That

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01:07:29.240 Why

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01:07:39.020 Kennedy

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01:07:41.240 By

01:07:41.420 Justin

01:07:41.720 Fruto

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01:07:56.880 Win

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01:08:09.920 Taking

01:08:10.220 The

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01:08:11.420 Always

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01:08:12.720 Look

01:08:12.920 Forward

01:08:13.200 To

01:08:13.600 Exchanging

01:08:14.100 Text

01:08:14.720 Messages

01:08:15.180 With

01:08:15.440 You

01:08:15.540 Tomorrow

01:08:15.780 Night

01:08:16.040 Thank

01:08:16.620 You

01:08:16.760 Sir

01:08:16.900 Thank

01:08:17.300 You

01:08:17.640 When I'm

01:08:37.520 Out

01:08:38.240 When

01:08:38.600 I'm

01:08:38.820 Out

01:08:39.520 When

01:08:39.900 I'm

01:08:40.060 Out

01:08:40.760 When

01:08:41.120 I'm

01:08:41.340 Out

01:08:41.780 When

01:08:42.340 I'm

01:08:42.560 Out

01:08:43.280 Of

01:08:43.640 Love

01:08:44.500 Cheek

01:08:47.340 Friend

01:08:48.060 Cheek

01:08:48.580 Friend

01:08:49.300 Cheek

01:08:49.880 Friend

01:08:50.540 Cheek

01:08:51.120 Friend

01:08:51.680 Will

01:08:52.380 Be

01:08:53.200 Around

01:09:14.500 He

01:09:33.000 Blood

01:09:34.960 He

01:09:37.700 Will

01:09:38.340 Carry

01:09:39.820 Carry

01:09:40.500 He will carry me, carry me, carry me

01:09:47.500 He will carry me, carry me, carry me

01:09:56.500 He was fortunate and loved

01:10:06.500 He was fortunate and loved

01:10:14.500 So when I'm out, when I'm out, when I'm out

01:10:34.500 So when I'm out, when I'm out of love

01:10:40.500 Shake a friend, shake a friend, shake a friend, shake a friend

01:10:44.500 We'll be around

01:10:50.500 He will carry me, carry me, carry me, carry me

01:11:00.500 He will carry me, carry me, carry me, carry me

01:11:10.500 He was fortune teller

01:11:19.500 He was fortune teller

01:11:29.500 He was fortune teller

01:11:39.500 He was fortune teller

01:11:49.500 He was fortune teller

01:11:58.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:06.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:12.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:16.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:22.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:26.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:32.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:36.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:46.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:48.500 He was fortune teller

01:12:58.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:00.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:02.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:12.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:14.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:16.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:18.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:20.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:22.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:24.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:26.500 He was fortune teller

01:13:28.500 But neither of us are there. And John, I thought it would be important for you to tell us what is happening in Ukraine, which is a much more important and a much more significant story, frankly, what people are experiencing there and kind of the story behind the headlines.

01:13:48.380 Now that the United States has fully abandoned Ukraine, I wanted to get a sense of what is happening on the ground.

01:13:58.500 Well, you're absolutely right about one thing. It'd be better to be in Ottawa on a Sunday, even at a Liberal Party event, than it would be to be anywhere near Ukraine right now.

01:14:08.740 So in sum, the war continues unabated, and young men and women are dying every day, and not just soldiers, but civilians.

01:14:18.800 A couple dozen children have died in the last 48 hours as a result of Russian shelling and Russian missile attacks out of, you know, at the direction of Moscow.

01:14:33.460 You'd never know it watching the news. People seem to have forgotten that you have a full-scale trench war going on in a very large European country.

01:14:43.960 And as, of course, as that continues, Donald Trump, as if he was working for Russia and the new Soviet Union, New Orleans and CIA under Putin, have denied and continued to increase the denial of help to Ukraine, that help that day was so essential to giving Ukraine a chance to holding onto its territory and stopping the Russians from taking the entire country.

01:15:12.180 They have now denied Ukraine. They have denied Ukraine. They have denied Ukraine. They have denied Ukraine the support they need to use the F-16s that Biden gave them, the F-16s being the jets.

01:15:27.440 They are pushing Europe, including Britain, to also deny Ukraine intelligence or help them in any meaningful way.

01:15:38.740 And so Europe is arming up, and Europe, Sweden, by example, and Norway have increased their commitment.

01:15:45.640 All right, well, slow down, slow down.

01:15:46.880 So the intelligence. Explain to people why, you know, that word gets used a lot, but I don't think it gets explained nearly enough.

01:15:58.300 What do you mean when you say intelligence? What is it that the, like, can't the Ukrainians see a drone coming at them or, you know, a rocket?

01:16:07.960 Like, what are they missing that is making the war easier for Vladimir Putin?

01:16:14.320 America has satellite and air technology. Air technology looks like something called a globalist.

01:16:22.160 They used to be known as AWACS. Those are planes that fly around the periphery of Ukraine 24 hours a day, seven days a week,

01:16:30.880 and alert the Ukrainians to incoming missiles or Russian troop movements or anything else that the Russians are doing that imperils or threatens Ukraine any further.

01:16:43.620 And so what they've done, it's like putting blinders on a horse.

01:16:47.720 They have taken away Ukraine's long-distance sight and capacity to determine what the Russians might be doing next, what they're launching.

01:16:57.760 And so the Ukrainians have to rely on their own intelligence, which really means not just, we're not talking about spies on the ground.

01:17:06.180 We're talking about hardware that allows you to fight a war with 360-degree sight.

01:17:13.360 And so lacking that, is this why we're hearing about so many terrible casualties and attacks?

01:17:23.020 It seems to be getting worse in the past week. Is this why people are saying Donald Trump's got blood on his hands?

01:17:31.060 It looks like that. Yes. Because prior to this week, the Ukrainians might have had a better chance of shooting the missiles that are raining down on apartment buildings and hospitals and schools.

01:17:43.500 They might have had a better chance of stopping them with American and European intelligence supporting them.

01:17:51.920 And as to Donald Trump having blood on his hands, Donald Trump 1,000% has blood on his hands.

01:17:58.460 He has decided that this war needs to end under any circumstances.

01:18:03.260 And if that means forsaking Ukrainian independence or the loss of tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives, then so be it.

01:18:11.900 His argument is very simple, that we enticed, we invited, we forced Russia's hand, that Russia's invasion was a result of our neo-imperialism, of our invitation to Ukraine, not only to join the EU, but to even potentially one day join NATO.

01:18:31.480 And so he's laying the cause of the war at Ukrainian and Western feet and siding with Russia.

01:18:41.340 And he is siding with Russia.

01:18:42.620 Now, but, but, but, you know, a couple of days ago, he said that he would bring to bear sanctions, at least, I guess, financial sanctions against Russia if they didn't cool it.

01:18:53.840 Was that just bullshit? Was that for show?

01:18:56.320 Well, yeah, it might have just been for show.

01:18:59.180 In the same way that two days before Zelensky arrived in Washington, D.C. for that horrible meeting last week that we discussed on the last show, he said that Zelensky was the right man, a great president, I think he said, for Ukraine.

01:19:15.380 I think he rope-a-dopes people regularly, and so he said that he might impose further sanctions on Russia.

01:19:23.400 I would shoot coffee up my nose if he actually does that.

01:19:27.480 I mean, the third part of this story is, as you may or may not know, there are peace talks that are supposed to move forward, get underway in Saudi Arabia.

01:19:38.020 Zelensky was, at one point, to attend those talks as of two hours ago out of the Guardian.

01:19:44.600 It has now been announced he will not be attending those talks.

01:19:47.140 I don't know how you can have peace talks when you don't have the leader of one of the countries at the table.

01:19:52.620 But Zelensky is bending over backwards and bending the knee far too many times just to see what he can salvage with respect to his relationship with the United States.

01:20:04.080 He has agreed to hand over the mineral rights, which really means America wants its money back and is going to take whatever Russia doesn't.

01:20:16.000 He is prepared to sit down at the table.

01:20:18.640 That probably means that he is now prepared to give up some of the territory that Ukraine has lost permanently.

01:20:25.860 And then he said that he's ready to sit down in earnest for peace talks any time.

01:20:30.480 Trump, of course, read that letter that he wrote to the entire United States the other day.

01:20:37.340 And Trump seemed to think of that as some sort of great victory.

01:20:41.020 There are no victories for a free Europe or for a free and safe Ukraine right now in the news.

01:20:48.960 Well, let's conclude on that.

01:20:51.820 So what is the victory for Europe?

01:20:53.840 The Europeans are talking more and more about involvement in Ukraine, about extending the nuclear umbrella, about ramping up their defense spending dramatically.

01:21:06.000 What is Europe going to do?

01:21:07.800 What can Europe do at this point?

01:21:10.360 Well, historically, when Germany and France and Britain decide that they want to arm up,

01:21:16.000 they've proven their capacity in the Second World War in particular to do so very rapidly, especially the Germans.

01:21:25.320 And so German arms production and research and development is moving at a furious pace.

01:21:31.940 They are some of the best engineers in the world, and they're rapidly starting to produce what the United States is not producing.

01:21:40.360 The other thing that's happened in the last week is that northern European countries, including Sweden and Norway, I was going to get there earlier,

01:21:49.700 are not just doubling but tripling the amount of money that they're committing towards supporting the Ukrainian front and the Ukrainian war effort.

01:21:58.280 And finally, France.

01:22:00.200 And I'm impressed by Macron, and I'm rarely impressed by Macron.

01:22:03.280 Macron is now talking, is the leader in talking about extending the nuclear umbrella.

01:22:10.480 That is, giving other countries in Europe the capacity to develop and build their own nuclear weapons, which is a dangerous thing.

01:22:22.300 And the United States were the proxy, the defenders of Europe,

01:22:26.800 and sort of guaranteed Russia that they would not be confronted by a dozen or 14 or 16 countries that had nuclear capacity.

01:22:36.140 Well, if you're going to cut off their access to that sort of defense ability, that defensive ability, well, they're going to have to produce it on their own.

01:22:46.140 It's inevitable, isn't it?

01:22:47.220 Okay, final question.

01:22:48.660 20 seconds or less.

01:22:50.520 Yeah.

01:22:50.880 Should Canada have its own nukes?

01:22:53.560 I think that Canada, sitting right next to the United States, doesn't need its own nukes.

01:23:02.840 Should it have its own nukes?

01:23:04.300 I mean, the United States sort of forced us out of the nuclear game 20 years ago with the demise of AECL,

01:23:10.000 and now we're starting to develop a commercial nuclear program once again.

01:23:16.240 Should we have our own nukes?

01:23:18.200 That depends on whether we're part of the United States or not and whether we're an ally of the United States.

01:23:23.380 Because we don't look like one right now.

01:23:25.600 So I don't know what the answer to that question is.

01:23:27.620 I would like to think not, because I'm not particularly impressed or heartened by nuclear weapons.

01:23:33.980 But maybe so, if things keep on going the way they're going.

01:23:38.580 Pretty wild, eh?

01:23:39.500 That I would have to ask you that question, and it wouldn't be just laughed at.

01:23:44.400 What a time we live in.

01:23:45.740 And John Mraz, thank you for your analysis, as always, about the terrible events in Ukraine this week.

01:23:51.900 I suspect we're going to be talking about it more next week.

01:23:54.880 Have a great day, and have a great week.

01:23:57.560 Thank you.

01:23:57.920 Bye, come on.

01:23:58.420 Bye, come on.

01:23:58.480 Bye, come on.

01:23:59.480 Bye, come on.

01:24:27.920 Bye, come on.

01:24:28.920 Bye, come on.

01:24:57.900 Bye, come on.

01:24:58.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:27.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:28.900 Bye.

01:25:29.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:30.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:31.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:32.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:33.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:34.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:35.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:36.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:37.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:38.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:39.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:40.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:41.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:42.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:43.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:44.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:45.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:46.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:47.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:48.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:49.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:50.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:51.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:52.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:53.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:54.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:55.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:56.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:57.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:58.900 Bye, come on.

01:25:59.900 Bye, come on.

01:26:00.900 Bye, come on.

01:26:01.900 Bye, come on.

01:26:02.900 Bye, come on.

01:26:03.880 Alright, alright.

01:26:04.880 Bye, come on.

01:26:05.900 Bye, come on.

01:26:06.940 Bye, come on.

01:26:08.880 Bye, come on.

01:26:09.880 Bye, come on.

01:26:10.880 Bye, come on.

01:26:27.760 Bye, come on.

01:26:28.820 You can hate me, you're my body, you can hate me when it's sunny, when it's raining, there's no body, I can turn to heavy breathing, send a meeting, a proceeding proper greeting, you can feed me, you can raid me, do you need me?

01:26:42.460 You can train me, double dating, total fitness, misbehaving, need a witness, bigger tropey, you can make me get some milk, you can make me, when the feeling overtakes me, there's no body, you can break me like you break me, when you hate me, extra crazy, I'm tired.

01:26:59.620 You can't eat me, you want me, you can't get me, you can't hate me, you can't eat me, I know what you want, you can't get me, you can't buy me, no body, you can't gain me, you can't keep running, Ariana, you can't need a witness, bigger tropey, you can't get me, don't問題, you can't go up, tell your tropey, you can't happen, you can't keep me, you can't push me make me, I can't help my notqu Mouse crack me, Zoe, I can't help my notquились droit 통ama,啦, darn na, my Caucasus, codamamagian, capapolis, nucapt KC Island, let's pause.

01:27:15.640 x3

kinsellacast - March 08, 2025

KINSELLACAST 352： Calgary Grit Dan Arnold on the shiny new Liberal era! With Kheiriddin, Lilley and Mraz - plus Galaxie 500, Tunde Adebimpe, Califone, The Concretes and more!

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