kinsellacast - KINSELLACAST 355： Coyne Campaign Conjecture! Plus Kheiriddin, Belanger, Lilley, Mulroney and more! Plus Aussie and non-Aussie punk!

00:00:00.000 It's the KinsellaCast, starring Warren Kinsella.

00:00:13.960 Hey, it's Warren. Welcome to the KinsellaCast, and welcome to the end of the first week in campaign 2025,

00:00:22.260 where all kinds of wild things have been happening.

00:00:24.900 The conservative campaign fighting amongst themselves, the liberals rising ever much in the polls,

00:00:33.200 and the conservatives having big rallies, the liberals having problems with plagiarism and crazy candidates.

00:00:39.700 Anyway, it's a real mixed bag. We'll be talking about it this week with Andrew Coyne, a friend of mine for many years,

00:00:46.980 and columnist for the Globe and Mail, an author of a forthcoming book that I know you're all going to go and pick up.

00:00:53.060 So we're going to talk about him, and we're going to talk about all of that.

00:00:57.620 Got Tasha Carradine, Carl Blanger, John Mraz, and Brian Lilly, of course, and we've got some great music.

00:01:04.080 I've got Drenge, who's an English three-piece band from Castleton in Derbyshire.

00:01:11.520 I'm not sure where that is, Castleton.

00:01:13.520 And they're in Sheffield now, and they've been around for about a decade.

00:01:16.120 Drunk Mums, with a song that's completely rude, but great.

00:01:20.260 I'm playing a lot of Aussie punk rock these days.

00:01:24.320 They call themselves pub rock influenced.

00:01:28.340 I think, actually, they just sit in pubs and drink a lot.

00:01:31.620 Sleaford Mods, who I love, played before.

00:01:34.320 They also hang out in pubs.

00:01:36.180 They actually just drink on stage and do their thing.

00:01:39.800 Dennis Cometty, with his song called Sonny Tan, also an Australian, not the son of the Australian sportscaster.

00:01:47.340 The Australian sportscaster had an Australian pro wrestler.

00:01:51.680 So I don't think it's the same guy.

00:01:53.800 They all have the same last name.

00:01:56.260 Anyway, they're from Perth, Australia.

00:01:57.900 And then from Melbourne, I've got Stiff Richards.

00:02:02.720 I love that name.

00:02:03.960 Such a good name.

00:02:04.700 So, anyway, crazy week in the campaign, and historic things happening.

00:02:12.800 One of them we saw on Friday, Thursday.

00:02:17.300 It was Thursday?

00:02:18.460 Yeah, it was Thursday.

00:02:19.120 The phone call was on Friday.

00:02:20.440 Mark Carney, you know, addressed the cameras, and he looked grave.

00:02:23.600 And he said, the old relationship we had with the United States, based on deepening integration of our economies and tight security and military cooperation, is over.

00:02:37.920 It's clear the United States is no longer a reliable partner.

00:02:42.520 Pretty wild.

00:02:43.500 And with that, a unique relationship that has endured for 158 years, a relationship that has survived war and pandemics and terror attacks, came to an end with a whimper, not a bang, at this hurriedly convened press conference in Ottawa, called to answer Trump's destructive tariffs on our auto industry.

00:03:08.700 And Carney's words ricocheted around the world, headlines everywhere, BBC, CNN, Fox News, all saying how surprised they were, like we were.

00:03:22.440 And partisan liberals gleefully celebrated what he said, and they posted online that he looked and sounded prime ministerial.

00:03:31.080 And that was true.

00:03:32.080 I actually thought he did look and sound like a prime minister for the first time in the very short time that he's been on the job.

00:03:39.120 But it wasn't anything to celebrate.

00:03:41.420 It was deeply, profoundly sad, in my opinion.

00:03:45.740 And importantly, his declaration is going to be very difficult, verging on impossible to walk back for him or his successor.

00:03:53.380 Cardi's liberals are going to argue, and they have, that his statement just acknowledges the obvious reality that when Trump is calling us the 51st state, when he's mocking us and our people, when he's threatening to use economic force against us, it would be an abdication of leadership to pretend that little has changed.

00:04:13.520 And that, in a sense, is what Pierre Polyevre has done, right?

00:04:17.860 And it has hurt his electoral prospects.

00:04:20.300 He's losing because he seems to think it's business as usual.

00:04:24.680 But Carney's statement sends the pendulum whipping in the opposite direction.

00:04:31.280 Like, to declare a relationship with the United States over, to state that they are no longer a reliable partner, it's going to be difficult or impossible to retract that.

00:04:40.860 Like, the statement was not ambiguous.

00:04:43.520 In the middle of an election campaign in which Donald Trump is the ballot question, his words will probably boost his party's popularity.

00:04:53.000 Like, Canadian nationalism is surging from coast to coast to coast, young and old, east and west, conservative and liberal.

00:04:59.760 If there's anything that unites us, it's our conviction that we want to remain Canadian.

00:05:04.500 But now that our Prime Minister, that's what he is, has declared our historical relationship with the United States over, what should be done about it?

00:05:15.100 What, in particular, is Mark Carney going to do about it?

00:05:18.540 His words impose a duty on him as Prime Minister to map out Canada's post-America future.

00:05:26.820 Pipelines, oil and gas, minerals to market, diversifying trade, finding new markets, strengthening our military and our security, building new alliances for intelligence sharing.

00:05:39.220 Like, what's Mark Carney's plan to construct new alliances to achieve these things, to replace the position that America used to hold in our lives?

00:05:49.200 We don't know.

00:05:50.200 We don't know.

00:05:50.760 He's not saying.

00:05:52.280 Now, this is politics, of course, and Carney's words could be a ruse.

00:05:56.640 Everyone expected his first telephone conversation with Trump, I certainly did, to be a disaster, with the U.S. president mocking him afterwards on truth social like he used to do with Justin Trudeau.

00:06:07.740 But instead, Trump quickly issued a statement calling their conversation extremely productive.

00:06:13.200 We agree on many things that they're going to meet soon.

00:06:16.240 It's going to end up being great for both Canada and the United States.

00:06:19.700 So, perhaps Carney's statement had the desired effect.

00:06:22.980 Perhaps auto tariffs may not somehow happen now.

00:06:27.240 Perhaps Trump's going to respond later when he goes off his medication, as he often does with friends or foe.

00:06:34.040 Like, with him, all of that's possible.

00:06:35.700 But in the meantime, we Canadians, now in the midst of a truly existential, historic election campaign, are entitled to hear a clear answer to this from our Prime Minister.

00:06:47.900 Now that you've said our 158-year-old relationship with America is over, what do we do next?

00:06:55.660 Seventy miles an hour I'm driving away from you

00:07:08.220 No telling what exactly I'm planning to do

00:07:14.620 But it's all over

00:07:19.320 Yeah, it's all over

00:07:25.620 Phenetic hours spent counting on blue of my fingers and toes 1.00

00:07:38.580 You say it stinks like shit, but at least at this point I've learned not to trust your nose 1.00

00:07:44.960 Well, maybe this is all that I can expect from somebody just like you 1.00

00:07:52.120 Did you expect it from me to? 0.99

00:07:57.660 I swear I don't need any fucking time 0.98

00:08:03.920 No good thing I can't believe in my 0.98

00:08:09.360 No, my, my, my, my, my, my

00:08:14.840 I'll leave it, I'll leave it, I'll leave it in my life

00:08:20.560 One, two, three, four

00:08:25.440 Baby, you call me just as I'm riveted and crazy

00:08:29.300 This party makes me wanna go home again

00:08:31.800 I'm trying, I'm trying, I'm trying to find a second reason to stay

00:08:36.440 So I can't breathe a lie to me

00:08:39.040 If you left him and then them

00:08:41.140 Convincing some girls that I can be 0.55

00:08:44.000 Cool again

00:08:45.940 I will never go back to Ohio

00:08:52.100 I won't even look down the road

00:08:54.100 Burn out in style

00:08:55.880 Too bad I'm told

00:08:57.060 They say the view from Mount Everest can kill

00:08:59.980 But the one without you

00:09:01.540 Is pretty good too 0.97

00:09:03.060 I swear I don't need any fucking time 0.98

00:09:14.940 No good thing I can't believe in my 0.97

00:09:20.260 Don't lie, now I need a chance to find

00:09:25.720 I'm living, I'm living, I'm living in my life

00:09:31.160 End of the night

00:09:35.600 Nobody's starting a fight

00:09:40.080 You stay inside

00:09:41.800 You're busy catching the light

00:09:45.760 End of the night

00:09:48.080 Nobody's starting a fight

00:09:52.480 You stay inside

00:09:54.520 I will never go back to Ohio

00:09:59.480 I won't even look down the road

00:10:01.500 Burn out in style

00:10:03.300 I'll do what I'm told

00:10:04.420 They say the view from Mount Everest can kill

00:10:07.360 But the one without you

00:10:08.800 Is pretty good too

00:10:10.180 Ohio

00:10:11.320 I won't even look down the road 0.92

00:10:13.300 Burn out in style

00:10:15.120 Too bad I'm told

00:10:16.320 They say the view from Mount Everest can kill

00:10:19.240 But the war without you is pretty good too 0.99

00:10:22.380 And we're back, and we're back with my friend Andrew Coyne.

00:10:32.660 And Andrew, we've known each other forever, and he, I'm very excited,

00:10:36.100 he has got a book coming out from Sullivan House,

00:10:38.960 and the title, Andrew, is The Crisis of Canadian Democracy, is that right?

00:10:43.060 The Crisis of Canadian Democracy, that is correct. 0.83

00:10:45.280 There you go, and certainly that is a timely subject.

00:10:49.780 Just give us a little sense, what is the book about?

00:10:54.800 It's about all the many ways in which our parliamentary democracy

00:10:58.220 falls short of being an actual functioning democracy.

00:11:01.920 And when you add it all up, whether it's the powerless of parliament

00:11:06.540 versus the government, the powerless of MPs versus their party leaders,

00:11:11.060 the wild distortions that our election results produce from voted for,

00:11:16.620 the way in which we conduct our campaigns,

00:11:18.120 any one of these things, you'd say, okay, that's problematic, but we'll fix it.

00:11:22.800 You add them all up together, and it's pretty damning.

00:11:25.340 We've got a lot of work to do.

00:11:26.820 Indeed.

00:11:27.340 And so that book is going to be out in the second week of May,

00:11:30.620 and I encourage everybody to go out and purchase multiple copies.

00:11:33.680 Exactly.

00:11:35.240 Because they make for excellent gifts and birthdays and bar mitzvahs and stuff.

00:11:39.920 So what I wanted to do, as I mentioned to you, you know,

00:11:44.340 people sometimes assume they know someone's story, and oftentimes they don't.

00:11:50.800 So how did Andrew Coyne get into the column writing business?

00:11:55.360 Like you're a Winnipeg guy, right?

00:11:57.540 Yeah.

00:11:58.120 I was mostly for, you know, for want of anything else.

00:12:01.600 I couldn't really figure out what else to do.

00:12:03.680 And I sort of got into the journalism thing in university.

00:12:08.200 I worked for the student paper at the University of Manitoba, where I started out.

00:12:12.360 And out of that, you know, I did a summer job a couple of summers for the Winnipeg Sun.

00:12:18.380 And, you know, then I went off to grad school, and I still didn't know what I wanted to do,

00:12:22.500 but I came back from that, and I'd been doing this journalism thing anyway.

00:12:26.040 And so I applied for a job as an editorial writer at what was then the Financial Post,

00:12:32.880 which was at that point a weekly paper.

00:12:35.080 And that sounded like a very gentlemanly piece of work.

00:12:38.280 Little did I know.

00:12:40.640 And basically I've been doing the same thing ever since.

00:12:43.800 So while I figure out what else I'm going to do.

00:12:46.140 So you still love it?

00:12:47.800 It's good fun.

00:12:48.420 You know, it dawned on me some years once I was into the trade that it was probably a pretty good match for me.

00:12:55.300 I'm a bit of a generalist by nature, and I get to, you know, look at a whole bunch of different subjects.

00:13:00.420 And virtually none of it is drudge work, right?

00:13:02.800 It's all just stuff that interests me and that, you know, I've always been a bit argumentative by nature,

00:13:08.120 which might not surprise you.

00:13:10.060 So, yeah, it probably was a good fit.

00:13:13.360 Yeah, well, argumentative is good.

00:13:15.060 And certainly, so I thought people are going to be most interested in hearing your reaction to the extraordinary time in which we live.

00:13:25.060 I think you and I share, from what I've seen, many of the same views about the madness emanating from our neighbors to the south

00:13:33.240 and the dysfunction of our democracy and so on.

00:13:36.980 So you just, you know, you express yourself beautifully and clearly all the time in the globe, in the pages of the globe.

00:13:45.060 About what's going on.

00:13:46.840 Like, but the one thing I've noticed, you can tell me if I'm wrong, that you as a guy, you as a citizen, you as a person,

00:13:53.960 have been genuinely upset by a lot of the stuff that is happening right now, particularly as it relates to Donald Trump.

00:14:01.720 Am I right?

00:14:02.620 How could you not be?

00:14:04.120 We're watching the end of something here, at least for now.

00:14:07.380 I mean, maybe they can recover after it, but it's hard to know.

00:14:10.600 It'll take a long time.

00:14:12.620 He is bent on doing as much destruction as he possibly can, he and the people around him.

00:14:18.660 In his case, I think, and I would not say this about any other world leader, but I genuinely think, and I'm not alone, that he is out of his mind.

00:14:27.880 He has a number of different personality disorders, and they express themselves as a desire for dominance, a desire to always be countering the conventional wisdom,

00:14:40.360 even if the conventional wisdom is just what everybody, in fact, knows to be a fact.

00:14:44.020 And so he always has to do the opposite of whatever is the right thing.

00:14:49.500 He will always do the worst thing that's possible to imagine, and the craziest thing that's possible to imagine, without fail.

00:14:55.180 It's not coincidental.

00:14:56.440 It's a policy.

00:14:58.480 And part of that is he can only feel large by making other things small, by destroying things.

00:15:04.460 And he's got around him a bunch of fanatical ideologues, as well as the usual opportunists,

00:15:09.020 opportunists, but particularly these ideologues who want to destroy everything because they're going to build some revolutionary right-wing utopia out of the ashes.

00:15:16.960 And that is a remarkably dangerous combination, and we're seeing it in the destruction of American democracy right in front of our eyes,

00:15:26.540 and in the same time, the destruction of the American system of alliances that has protected the democracies for 80 years.

00:15:33.780 And so it's a really, really perilous time.

00:15:37.800 And, oh, by the way, he's also threatening our country.

00:15:40.800 Well, just following on the heels of your book, which is just weeks away,

00:15:46.540 an important component of the democratic process is not just leaders like Trump, in quotation marks,

00:15:51.880 but also the people who put him there.

00:15:54.400 That's right.

00:15:55.060 You know, so God will take him home, or a poll will swallow him up, or whatever happens to him in due course,

00:16:03.280 probably at the midterms.

00:16:05.600 But there's 77 million people voted for the guy.

00:16:08.600 What does that say, do you think, about their democracy and how dysfunctional it's become?

00:16:14.620 Well, it's a very good point.

00:16:16.160 You know, I'd always, my view of the American democracy had always been, you know,

00:16:20.460 yeah, it's elephantine, and it's got all these crazy rules and checks and balances that make it hard to get anything done,

00:16:26.780 but at least it will protect them from a dictatorship.

00:16:29.460 At least it will, you know, keep the crazies out.

00:16:32.880 And it turns out that's not true.

00:16:34.360 So, yeah, you know, I'm critical of the institutions of Canadian democracy in the book.

00:16:40.120 But, you know, one thing that bears emphasizing is that we still do seem to have a relatively sane political culture

00:16:46.580 that avoids extremes.

00:16:49.800 And by extremes, I don't mean radical right or left.

00:16:52.800 I mean extremism, you know, craziness.

00:16:57.520 And whereas the Americans, they seem to have locked themselves into a combination of polarization and stasis,

00:17:04.620 like nothing ever changes.

00:17:05.740 You watch that last election campaign where Trump did everything wrong and Kamala Harris did everything right,

00:17:11.840 and nothing moved.

00:17:12.960 Nothing moved.

00:17:14.040 We've had, admittedly, one of the most unprecedented shifts in public opinion.

00:17:19.920 You know, it's hard to think of anything quite to match it in terms of both the size of it and the solidity of it,

00:17:25.720 if I can put it that way.

00:17:26.700 It's not just based on, oh, we're all in love with Mark Carney.

00:17:29.800 It's, I'm really scared for the country, and right now I'm thinking maybe I should stick with the liberals.

00:17:33.980 So that speaks well of us in a way.

00:17:37.760 I don't mean because people are voting for any party or not,

00:17:40.140 but the fact that people are willing to change their minds and can be moved by different circumstances

00:17:45.980 is still the case in Canadian politics.

00:17:47.960 I'm not sure.

00:17:49.060 I mean, Trump's losing a little bit in the polls, but the people who like him like him more than ever.

00:17:54.020 So our institutions are in badly need of repair in Canada,

00:17:57.520 but the Americans really need to fix their political culture,

00:18:00.840 because you can have all the strong institutions.

00:18:03.840 They've got all the checks and balances written down on paper,

00:18:06.040 but if nobody is doing their job,

00:18:09.260 if none of the Republican senators will actually stand up for the Senate's historical role,

00:18:14.560 for example, of advising and consenting on these presidential appointments,

00:18:20.340 which are, as with everything else with Trump,

00:18:22.740 the worst appointments you could possibly think of in each of those posts,

00:18:26.740 then, you know, your institutions are only as strong as the people that inhabit them.

00:18:31.940 So that is a good segue.

00:18:33.260 You gave me a good segue to our situation and our politics.

00:18:37.820 You know, one of my theories about politics, which is often proven right,

00:18:42.660 is it's like comedy.

00:18:43.960 It's all about timing.

00:18:44.940 So, you know, Pierre Polyev came along angry, bumper sticker policy,

00:18:49.220 never smiled, grouchy, mocked the media, you know, convoy stuff and vaccines stuff and all of that.

00:18:57.940 And it worked for him like gangbusters for two years because it matched the mood of the country.

00:19:03.660 Now he's not the flavor anymore.

00:19:06.380 What do you think?

00:19:07.200 Do you think that's part of what has happened to him,

00:19:09.680 this precipitous drop that has hit him and his party?

00:19:13.660 A hundred percent.

00:19:14.300 So he got to the heights because he was quicker than any of the other party leaders

00:19:20.380 to see how badly the affordability and housing thing had affected people

00:19:23.880 and how much that affected their moods.

00:19:26.120 And so he became their lightning rod.

00:19:28.160 He became their go-to.

00:19:30.660 Some of that was just people parking their vote with the conservatives

00:19:34.080 because they didn't like Justin Trudeau.

00:19:35.680 So some part of that closing of the gap that's happened

00:19:38.560 opened up a new gap now into the conservatives or liberals' favor.

00:19:41.840 But some of that was, oh, I just want Justin Trudeau to be gone

00:19:45.540 and I'll say I'm voting conservative for now.

00:19:48.380 Some of it is people are interested and intrigued by Kearney.

00:19:52.080 He's got a good CV.

00:19:53.200 He looks like a solid guy and people are, there's a bit of that.

00:19:57.960 But I have, you know, you have to figure a good chunk of it is people,

00:20:01.300 and you hear people saying this all the time is, you know,

00:20:03.940 I'm not keen on the government, but I really, I just can't get my mind around Poirier.

00:20:07.480 And, yeah, he carved out this persona.

00:20:10.760 The nationalists and the negativity is one thing,

00:20:12.960 and I agree with you that that's sort of off-key right now

00:20:15.660 when people are kind of rallying around the country.

00:20:18.500 But also just so many things that are imitating the Trump populist thing.

00:20:24.300 And he's by no means Donald Trump.

00:20:27.200 He's not a threat to Canadian democracy, you know, none of that.

00:20:29.840 But he's been way too willing to play to that end of the field

00:20:33.940 and to mimic that kind of language and, you know, the silly nicknames for people

00:20:40.760 and, you know, even the slogan.

00:20:42.880 Of all the slogans you could have chosen at this particular moment in history,

00:20:45.740 you choose Canada first, which rhymes with America first.

00:20:50.360 So I think the people around him, I think, drank their own bathwater a bit,

00:20:54.580 got a little too full of themselves.

00:20:55.800 From what I hear even today, there's a bit of denial in the, you know,

00:21:02.020 the headquarters of Conservative HQ that they still think this is all going to turn around

00:21:05.520 and don't be such nervous, Nellie, a phrase that you would be familiar with.

00:21:09.820 And, look, sometimes that's true.

00:21:11.940 Sometimes, you know, you've got to keep a cool head

00:21:13.880 and stay on the course you're on and don't be thrown off it.

00:21:16.320 Sometimes you have to understand that the entire political game has been changed.

00:21:21.060 This is an election unlike any we've ever had.

00:21:23.960 And when people are this frightened and when they're this serious about the situation for the country,

00:21:35.400 you tell me, but my sense is they measure people by different metrics.

00:21:39.940 They're not looking at who's playing the political game the best, you know,

00:21:43.540 who had the best day on the hustings and all that stuff.

00:21:46.520 They're looking at which of these people is going to, you know, protect my interest, protect my country.

00:21:53.400 Exactly.

00:21:53.900 You know?

00:21:54.400 And right now, I'm not saying he can't turn around, but he was so late to pick up on this.

00:22:00.080 And he's always seen about a week behind the curve in terms of how he's messaging versus Trump.

00:22:06.900 And so the things he's saying now are certainly a bit tougher than they were, but he's way late to the game.

00:22:13.340 Yeah.

00:22:13.580 No, and I'm certainly hearing, and I'm sure you are as well from your sources,

00:22:17.260 that this state of denial persists at Conservative HQ,

00:22:21.820 and they think somehow that it is going to turn around, but good luck to them.

00:22:26.040 Final question.

00:22:27.300 Unfair question.

00:22:28.960 Who's going to win the election?

00:22:30.140 My answer to most of those questions is I don't know.

00:22:36.380 You know, if you had to guess, you would say at this point that the liberals seem to be more matching the mood of the country on this.

00:22:45.020 You know, they certainly have lots of reasons to deserve being kicked out of power,

00:22:50.220 but you're always making a choice between imperfect and alternatives.

00:22:53.020 And at this point, you know, I'm just going by where the, I guess, combination of the polls

00:22:57.320 and just kind of reading atmospherically the public mood.

00:23:01.240 But, you know, this could change.

00:23:04.600 It could particularly change because we're going to see all kinds of things happening in the next few weeks.

00:23:09.280 Trump's going to be dropping all kinds of bombs into the middle of our campaign, just for starters.

00:23:14.820 God knows what the Russians and the Chinese and the Indians are going to be doing in terms of

00:23:19.120 of giving stuff up on social media.

00:23:21.860 So hang on to your hats, I guess, is the only thing, a real thing to say.

00:23:25.100 Well, it's a lot of fun for guys like you and me sitting on the sidelines.

00:23:29.280 And then we come down from the hills, as they say, to shoot the wounded.

00:23:32.660 So we'll continue to do that.

00:23:34.440 Listen, Mr. Coyne, thank you so much.

00:23:37.560 Really appreciate it.

00:23:38.560 Everybody needs to rush out and buy Andrew's book when it arrives in bookstores.

00:23:43.800 Find bookstores near you across the country in the middle of May.

00:23:47.040 And thank you, sir.

00:23:48.400 My pleasure.

00:23:48.880 Thank you.

00:23:49.280 Thank you.

00:24:18.880 Thank you.

00:24:19.880 Thank you.

00:24:20.880 Thank you.

00:24:21.880 Thank you.

00:24:22.880 Thank you.

00:24:23.880 Thank you.

00:24:24.880 Thank you.

00:24:25.880 Thank you.

00:24:26.880 Thank you.

00:24:27.880 Thank you.

00:24:28.880 Thank you.

00:24:29.880 Thank you.

00:24:30.880 Thank you.

00:24:31.880 Thank you.

00:24:32.880 Thank you.

00:24:33.880 Thank you.

00:24:34.880 Thank you.

00:24:35.880 Thank you.

00:24:36.880 Thank you.

00:24:37.880 Thank you.

00:24:38.880 Thank you.

00:24:39.880 Thank you.

00:24:40.880 Thank you.

00:24:41.880 Thank you.

00:24:42.880 Thank you.

00:24:43.880 Thank you.

00:24:44.880 Thank you.

00:24:45.880 Thank you.

00:24:46.880 Thank you.

00:24:47.880 Thank you.

00:24:48.880 Thank you.

00:24:49.880 Thank you.

00:24:50.880 Thank you.

00:24:51.880 Thank you.

00:24:52.880 Thank you.

00:24:53.880 Thank you.

00:24:54.880 Thank you.

00:24:55.880 Thank you.

00:24:56.880 Thank you.

00:24:57.880 Thank you.

00:24:58.880 Thank you.

00:24:59.880 Thank you.

00:25:00.880 Thank you.

00:25:01.880 Thank you.

00:25:02.880 Tell me what's your poison?

00:25:04.880 Tell me what's your deal?

00:25:07.880 Tell me what's your poison?

00:25:09.880 Tell me how you feel?

00:25:13.880 That speaks.

00:25:16.880 That spoken.

00:25:19.880 It breaks.

00:25:22.880 You open.

00:25:23.880 In the vein.

00:25:24.880 And we're back and we're back.

00:25:54.660 An election time is a time where you have to watch your nutrition.

00:25:58.860 And here, with all of your election-related vitamins, is my friend Brian Lilly.

00:26:03.640 Brian, welcome.

00:26:06.060 That's a different way to introduce me.

00:26:07.920 I figure it was new.

00:26:08.860 Now, tell me about your story that you've got on the front page this morning and why it's important.

00:26:16.740 It's a liberal MP.

00:26:19.260 He is still a sitting MP.

00:26:21.360 People shouldn't forget that.

00:26:22.600 During the election, they're still MPs.

00:26:24.500 But he's also a liberal candidate in Markham Unionville.

00:26:28.360 His name's Paul Chang.

00:26:29.780 And he said openly to Chinese language media, which, you know, I don't read, I don't watch, I don't follow, but it came out this week that he was telling people, you know, that Joe Tay, you should go down and get him and take him to the Chinese consulate.

00:26:50.360 But let me get to the direct quote.

00:26:52.320 To everyone here, you can claim the $1 million bounty if you bring him to Toronto's Chinese consulate.

00:26:58.180 He said this openly to the Chinese language media.

00:27:02.620 It got reported on.

00:27:04.220 About a conservative candidate, right?

00:27:06.360 About a conservative candidate named Joe Tay, who's running at Don Valley North.

00:27:11.020 There is a $1 million Hong Kong dollar bounty on Tay's head.

00:27:16.080 Why?

00:27:16.600 Because he's been an activist for democracy in China.

00:27:20.460 He's originally from Hong Kong.

00:27:22.220 He's lived in Canada for years, but speaks out about democracy in China.

00:27:26.880 And the liberal MP said, you should go get him and hand him over to the Chinese. 0.52

00:27:32.520 And we're still dealing with Chinese foreign interference.

00:27:37.220 And now you've got Paul Chang, who, according to Aaron O'Toole, former conservative leader, said Markham Unionville was one of the worst ridings in the country for foreign interference in the 2021 election.

00:27:50.140 The conservatives are calling for Mark Carney to fire Chang.

00:27:56.040 Now, Chang has apologized.

00:27:57.500 It's not up for debate whether he said this.

00:28:00.060 It's up for debate what the reaction should be.

00:28:03.820 He's apologized.

00:28:05.200 The liberals say that's enough.

00:28:07.420 And Carney has been absolutely silent on this. 0.99

00:28:11.380 I find this absolutely fucking outrageous. 0.97

00:28:14.920 Like, forget about just dumping him as a candidate. 0.98

00:28:17.980 I wonder if he's broken the criminal code by encouraging an indictable offense, kidnapping and abduction and illegal confinement.

00:28:29.060 Like, this is nuts.

00:28:31.480 Like, I can't believe the liberals are letting this thing kick along.

00:28:36.020 Yeah.

00:28:36.200 And if people think we're being, you know, too out there saying kidnapping, he said you can get the one million dollar bounty if you bring him to Toronto's Chinese consulate.

00:28:46.820 Do you think Joe Tay is just going to be like, oh, you want to take me somewhere?

00:28:50.320 Oh, where do you want to visit?

00:28:51.100 You want to go have coffee at the Chinese consulate?

00:28:53.040 Oh, down on Bedford?

00:28:56.040 No.

00:28:57.060 Wow.

00:28:57.660 He's not going to be doing that.

00:28:58.960 So he's telling people, go get him.

00:29:00.660 Bring him to the Chinese consulate.

00:29:04.520 Very disturbing.

00:29:05.800 And, you know, this has been out there since, in English, since Friday afternoon, late Friday afternoon.

00:29:13.460 And you and I are talking at 7.30 on Sunday morning.

00:29:16.640 And at this point, the liberals have done nothing.

00:29:19.500 It's terrible.

00:29:20.420 Well, hopefully that changes.

00:29:22.340 One thing that never changes is, well, not the guy I'm talking to, but a lot of people in the journalism business love process stories.

00:29:31.940 It's way more fun than writing about policy and, you know, people's plans and what they want to do.

00:29:39.460 I hate process stories.

00:29:40.880 Well, we...

00:29:41.620 Which one are you talking about?

00:29:42.640 Well, the big one.

00:29:43.680 The one that CBC and the Star and the Globe and Global News, everybody's covered.

00:29:50.900 You know, containing, bursting at the seams with anonymous sources, which is the wheels falling off the Tory campaign bus story.

00:29:59.740 What's your take on it?

00:30:01.000 You and I have talked about it during the course of the week.

00:30:03.380 It seems to be everywhere.

00:30:04.920 Is it true?

00:30:07.240 Well, none of those secret conservative sources are talking to me and saying this.

00:30:13.860 One is talking to me and talking to everyone who will listen openly, and that's Corey tonight.

00:30:19.320 Doug Ford's campaign manager.

00:30:21.400 He's worked for Stephen Harper, run on Maxine Bernier's leadership campaign in 2017.

00:30:28.440 You know, Corey's no slouch, knows what he's talking about.

00:30:30.620 But he says that the conservatives have to pivot and start talking about Donald Trump all the time.

00:30:37.760 Interesting counterpoint piece at the Hub, written by David Coletto, the pollster for Abacus Data.

00:30:43.700 And we can talk about his numbers and why he says that's the wrong move in a moment.

00:30:47.260 But everyone else is anonymous.

00:30:49.280 I saw Jazz Joe Holland.

00:30:51.580 I know you go on Jazz's show.

00:30:53.580 He posted saying he's hearing that lots of senior conservatives want to dump Jenny Byrne in favor of Hamish Marshall.

00:31:02.960 That is the correct reaction to that.

00:31:05.500 No offense, Hamish, but I haven't heard anybody say we've got to bring back Hamish Marshall.

00:31:10.600 Oh, sorry.

00:31:11.420 That's the funniest thing I've heard all week.

00:31:14.060 Hamish ran Andrew Scheer's 2019 campaign.

00:31:17.820 Into the ditch.

00:31:19.320 I have not heard anybody say we need to bring back Dan Robertson, who ran Aaron O'Toole's 2021 campaign.

00:31:27.160 Nobody's saying that.

00:31:28.100 Now, there's lots of claims about infighting and Jenny's absent. 0.87

00:31:34.700 And so I reached out to one of my sources and said, OK, this is the rumor.

00:31:39.480 What am I?

00:31:40.380 And he's like, well, Jenny's sitting 15 feet from me at the moment and has been in four meetings with myself and Pierre today.

00:31:50.140 Look, it's one week into the campaign, people.

00:31:53.400 It's one week.

00:31:54.660 And guess what?

00:31:55.800 But despite the fact that the liberals want to make it seem like they are running away with this and a lot of people in the media want to declare the election over, we still have almost a month left.

00:32:10.000 But the stories are damaging, right?

00:32:11.720 I mean, they are.

00:32:12.300 Whether they're true or not, they're damaging as hell.

00:32:14.460 Yeah, they're more damaging than the story of Mark Carney using Bermuda as a tax haven to set up his $25 billion funds in Bermuda to avoid Canadian taxes.

00:32:28.940 Or the plagiarism story.

00:32:30.200 Yeah, now, in fairness, the tax haven story got knocked out of the news cycle by the Trump auto tariffs, which was Trump's attempt to knock out a story about a signal group chat involving high defense people and a journalist.

00:32:46.440 But the plagiarism story, I think, is still significant.

00:32:51.320 You think it's significant.

00:32:53.200 And most of Canada's establishment media looked at it and said, literally said, this is nothing.

00:32:59.780 Why are you bringing it up?

00:33:00.860 And that was so shocking and disappointing because you and I know in our business, we've both written books, we've written journalism.

00:33:09.260 If you steal somebody else's words without attribution, you get fired.

00:33:14.520 And in academia, where 30-year-old Mark Carney wrote his Ph.D. thesis, you lose your Ph.D.

00:33:22.380 Like, it's a big deal.

00:33:24.080 And I can't believe people are poo-pooing it.

00:33:25.940 Well, Mr. Irrelevant over at the Globe and Mail was saying, has one academic other than this, Sigmund, who the liberals have dismissed as a conservative donor, is the one who said that this is an issue.

00:33:40.020 And it was a UBC law professor who said, yeah, I'm saying it's an issue and pointed out that this would have been written up by Carney before you could easily just do control C, control V and copy and paste.

00:33:51.900 That he had to physically type it in on one of those old word processors.

00:33:58.860 So, and I don't know Catherine Levesque from the National Post who wrote this.

00:34:03.920 We work for the same company, but she's out of Ottawa.

00:34:06.160 Don't really know her at all.

00:34:07.440 I'm not sure if I've met her.

00:34:10.080 But when I saw the headline, I thought, okay, is there real meat here or is it a nothing burger?

00:34:15.200 And I read the piece and it's very thorough.

00:34:18.840 It quotes people who believe it is plagiarism, people who believe it's not.

00:34:24.320 I think it was two to one were the two saying it is, one saying it's not.

00:34:29.580 But she actually documented all 10 incidents that were found.

00:34:34.340 And, again, Carney getting saved by, you know, holding a call with Trump and not really getting asked about this.

00:34:45.020 So, he's been lucky he'll probably get saved by Trump again this week.

00:34:49.680 Well, let's talk about that.

00:34:51.080 So, the phone call.

00:34:52.360 The big phone call.

00:34:54.180 Carney had been delaying it.

00:34:55.500 Looked to me like he was actually even ducking it.

00:34:57.740 But it finally happened on Friday morning and I predicted wrongly that, you know, it would result in Trump saying all kinds of horrible things about Carney after the call.

00:35:08.880 That didn't happen at all.

00:35:10.320 He called it productive and constructive.

00:35:12.320 So did Carney.

00:35:13.780 So, that was a bit of a shocker.

00:35:16.600 And, I mean, my Trump rule, as you know, is always pay attention to what he does, not what he says.

00:35:21.540 But, like, wow, what a surprise.

00:35:24.860 Yeah.

00:35:25.340 So, background on the call, and don't believe me, you can believe, Wall Street Journal, Toronto Star, CBC, Globe and Mail all reported this as well.

00:35:36.200 Carney tried to get a call on his first day at the p.m. after he was sworn in.

00:35:40.440 They reached out immediately.

00:35:42.540 And Trump didn't return his call until this week.

00:35:45.080 So, even though he was going around saying, I'll talk to him when he shows respect to Canada, he was not getting his call returned until this week.

00:35:56.080 And that may have to do with the fact that during the leadership campaign, he referred to Trump as Baltimore and Orange Man and things like that.

00:36:04.100 If you want to get respect, you've got to give respect.

00:36:06.580 You can't be, like, don't be name-calling.

00:36:09.920 Doug Ford has taken a very strong stand on Trump and the tariffs, and he's never made it personal, not once.

00:36:15.280 He doesn't go out there and call names.

00:36:17.540 Guess what?

00:36:17.920 He said he was getting phone calls this week from Howard Lutnick as well, saying, don't worry, the auto tariffs aren't going to be as hard on you guys.

00:36:23.900 Here's why.

00:36:25.180 So, you know, Ford's been getting action from the Trump administration.

00:36:28.820 Call went better than I thought on Friday morning as well.

00:36:32.260 I was monitoring through social to see, watch for an explosion.

00:36:35.860 It didn't happen.

00:36:36.860 It didn't happen.

00:36:37.940 Trump was swearing in a new attorney general for New Jersey, I guess, and gets asked about it.

00:36:47.920 Spoke for about a minute.

00:36:49.160 I posted the video on all the socials, if you haven't seen it, and said very good things.

00:36:54.740 Yeah, Mark called me at 10 o'clock.

00:36:56.640 We had a good call.

00:36:58.320 Is Canada going to get higher tariffs if they retaliate?

00:37:01.820 Absolutely.

00:37:04.740 Weird.

00:37:05.800 It was weird.

00:37:07.320 He said, absolutely, they're going to get harder tariffs if they retaliate.

00:37:10.740 But we had a good call.

00:37:12.540 And, you know, things are going to go well with Canada.

00:37:14.640 And then later in the same Q&A session, just going on about all the things he wants to do on auto from tariffs.

00:37:24.120 But also, and this kind of sounds like what Biden wanted to do with the Inflation Reduction Act and a tax break for buying an electric car.

00:37:32.940 Trump wants to give a tax break for buying any American-made car.

00:37:37.700 And if we're not included in that, that could hurt us big time.

00:37:41.380 So, you know, the threats to our economy are still there.

00:37:45.780 And so, you know, to get back to the Corey Tanike thing versus David Colletto, Colletto's piece at the Hub said

00:37:55.940 that the conservatives would not win against the liberals in a battle for who's best to beat Trump.

00:38:05.320 But there's still over 50% of the electorate wants change.

00:38:08.960 And if you can convince them you're the right change, then you can win.

00:38:13.020 And so if there's a pivot, it's going to be to we're best positioned to fix the economy to counter what Trump is doing.

00:38:26.700 And if you see Paglia's latest announcement today, which is an announcement that if you sell any asset and reinvest it in Canada,

00:38:41.400 you pay zero capital gains tax.

00:38:44.080 And that's for individuals and companies to try and get billions of dollars of investment in Canada.

00:38:50.180 Might just work.

00:38:51.240 Might just work.

00:38:51.820 But so, you know, Colletto said, looking at my own polling data, he's the only pollster that hasn't tied.

00:38:59.360 But I think most of the reputable ones, it's like three or five.

00:39:04.420 It's still a competitive race.

00:39:05.860 He says, looking at his polling data, he sees that as the most plausible path to victory for the conservatives with four weeks to go.

00:39:14.860 There you go.

00:39:15.640 Well, next week, the tariffs hit.

00:39:17.220 So that's going to occupy a lot of time and a lot of ink.

00:39:19.980 And you and I will be writing about that.

00:39:21.820 And it's going to be tougher for Polyev to break through, but maybe he might with some good ideas.

00:39:25.920 So we shall see.

00:39:26.860 Maybe a breakthrough by getting Paul Chang fired and people talking about Chinese interference again.

00:39:32.380 A legitimate case of interference.

00:39:34.780 Ryan Lilly, thank you so much for giving me some of your vitamins on an early on a Sunday morning.

00:39:40.600 Have a great day with your gal and with Chloe and a great week.

00:39:44.800 Thank you.

00:39:45.280 Talk soon.

00:39:45.680 Talk soon.

00:39:45.720 Talk soon.

00:39:45.780 Talk soon.

00:39:45.880 Talk soon.

00:39:46.780 Talk soon.

00:39:47.720 Talk soon.

00:39:51.820 Talk soon.

00:40:17.720 Talk soon.

00:40:18.620 Talk soon.

00:40:19.080 Upgrade call.

00:40:19.660 Talk soon.

00:40:21.820 Talk soon.

00:40:21.940 Talk soon.

00:40:23.120 Talk soon.

00:40:23.320 Talk soon.

00:40:25.660 Talk soon.

00:40:25.820 Talk soon.

00:40:27.780 Talk soon.

00:40:28.920 Talk soon.

00:40:30.800 Talk soon.

00:40:37.220 Talk soon.

00:40:37.840 Talk soon.

00:40:38.620 Talk soon.

00:40:38.860 Talk soon.

00:40:39.860 Talk soon.

00:40:41.260 Talk soon.

00:40:41.860 Talk soon.

00:40:45.880 A ghost tonight

00:40:47.120 I wanna play with my friends

00:40:49.060 On the other side

00:40:50.420 Gonna come back tomorrow

00:40:52.140 Tell them you're alright

00:40:53.540 I wanna be

00:40:54.860 A ghost

00:40:56.660 Tonight

00:40:57.880 We're still writing songs

00:41:12.540 Build a space up in the room

00:41:15.900 The door is still open

00:41:19.000 And we're waiting for you

00:41:22.240 I was playing drums in Texas

00:41:25.160 I was barking at the moon

00:41:28.340 I was searching for reflections

00:41:31.980 In a picture of you

00:41:35.320 I wanna be a ghost tonight

00:41:38.680 I wanna party with my friends

00:41:40.620 On the other side

00:41:41.960 Gonna come back tomorrow

00:41:43.700 Tell them you're alright

00:41:45.000 I wanna be

00:41:46.420 A ghost

00:41:48.200 I wanna be

00:41:50.220 A ghost tonight

00:41:51.520 I wanna party with my friends

00:41:53.460 On the other side

00:41:54.820 Gonna come back tomorrow

00:41:56.540 Tell them you're alright

00:41:57.960 I wanna be

00:41:59.240 A ghost

00:42:00.960 Tonight

00:42:01.960 I wanna be

00:42:16.120 A ghost tonight

00:42:19.840 I wanna be

00:42:20.160 You're alright

00:42:22.200 I wanna be a ghost tonight

00:42:46.300 I wanna part you and my friends on the other side

00:42:49.580 Gonna come back tomorrow, tell them you're alright 0.79

00:42:52.620 I wanna be a ghost tonight

00:42:57.080 Tonight

00:43:03.020 Tonight

00:43:03.680 Good morning, good morning Canada

00:43:18.260 Welcome to Canada's best love, punk rock, geriatric political website

00:43:22.800 With none other than another punk rocker

00:43:25.540 I wouldn't call him geriatric

00:43:27.340 He's younger than me, more sprightly than me

00:43:29.860 And he's up early, bright and early on a Sunday morning

00:43:32.420 John Mraz, welcome

00:43:33.340 Pre-geriatric, I'm almost there

00:43:36.060 Well welcome, thanks so much for giving us some time

00:43:39.200 I wanna talk to you, maybe we'll talk about domestic stuff first

00:43:41.800 You've run lots of liberal campaigns

00:43:43.440 You've been involved in the Liberal Party for many, many years

00:43:46.780 What are you hearing, is it as good on the ground

00:43:50.220 As the polls are suggesting

00:43:52.220 I don't know, I'm not sure

00:43:54.420 I believe the polls

00:43:55.300 It seems unfathomable to me

00:43:58.180 I mean, if one is to assume

00:44:00.420 That the polls were correct two and a half months ago

00:44:02.420 And that the Tories will be conservative

00:44:04.480 We're 15 points ahead

00:44:06.240 We'll say median, 15 points ahead

00:44:08.240 And that now they're up to 15 points behind

00:44:10.660 You're talking about a 30% shift

00:44:13.500 It's not just 15 points, it's 30

00:44:16.100 And that means one in three Canadians

00:44:18.320 Have changed their minds in the last two months

00:44:20.860 As a direct result of either what's going on here

00:44:23.900 Or more likely what's going on in the United States

00:44:26.700 With Donald Trump

00:44:28.660 That's an awfully big shift

00:44:31.080 And I think whatever support exists

00:44:33.460 Repair Polyamor, who has been wholly unlikable for years

00:44:36.580 But was an alternative to Trudeau

00:44:38.480 And what's going on for Mark Carney

00:44:40.240 Who's been mostly an enigma of Canadians 1.00

00:44:42.300 But is not, again, that likable

00:44:44.520 That all that support is an inch thick

00:44:47.540 And a mile wide

00:44:48.760 So I think the fat lady is yet to sink 1.00

00:44:51.980 Can we still use that expression?

00:44:53.440 Well, I'm good anyway

00:44:54.020 Rubenesque, I say Rubenesque

00:44:55.920 And then I get in less trouble

00:44:57.180 Baudichelian, sure

00:44:58.720 The Rubenesque lady is about to warble 0.82

00:45:01.000 Well, yeah, I think you're quite right

00:45:02.920 I mean, next week, though

00:45:04.560 He's going to be challenging for Polyamor

00:45:06.260 Because the tariffs are going to hit

00:45:07.820 That obviously is going to eat up

00:45:09.800 Much of the news cycle

00:45:11.500 The response will be

00:45:13.600 The relevant response

00:45:14.700 Will be coming from the government

00:45:15.780 Which is one Mark Carney

00:45:17.040 So it's going to be tough for Polyamor to break through 1.00

00:45:19.440 And then before you know it

00:45:20.440 You're in week three, aren't you?

00:45:22.940 Yeah, well, which is the doldrums

00:45:25.320 As we know

00:45:26.180 And I noted that you wrote

00:45:28.500 A few days ago

00:45:29.740 Maybe the Liberals have peaked too soon

00:45:31.480 But just as they peaked too soon

00:45:34.140 Assuming maybe that they had

00:45:36.600 They got hit by, what, a plagiarism scandal

00:45:38.920 That seems to have a few legs

00:45:41.020 The press in Quebec

00:45:42.540 Have been less than kind

00:45:43.820 To Mr. Carney's ties

00:45:46.000 To his firms and international dealings

00:45:48.700 And yet

00:45:49.900 The numbers keep on getting better

00:45:52.580 For Mr. Carney

00:45:53.480 And Mr. Paglia

00:45:54.440 Is now being ransacked

00:45:57.220 By whom?

00:45:58.560 Liberals?

00:45:59.100 No

00:45:59.300 The press?

00:46:00.080 No

00:46:00.320 Tories

00:46:01.320 Ontario Tories

00:46:03.340 Seem to be after him

00:46:05.180 And at his heels

00:46:06.180 The people running the Ford campaign

00:46:08.640 Or some of the people associated

00:46:09.980 With the Ford operation

00:46:11.600 Are taking easy pot shots

00:46:13.820 At what they say is a campaign

00:46:15.160 That assumed too much

00:46:16.360 Wasn't ready on the ground

00:46:17.700 Treats people poorly

00:46:18.900 And is running a campaign

00:46:22.020 Somewhat akin to the way Trump ran his campaign

00:46:24.280 Which did work

00:46:25.240 Which is rallies over hard

00:46:27.720 Identified vote

00:46:28.760 And a complete lack of direction

00:46:31.660 Or response

00:46:33.280 To what?

00:46:34.140 The only issue that matters to Canadians 1.00

00:46:35.880 Sovereignty

00:46:36.840 Donald Trump

00:46:37.700 And the tariffs that, you know

00:46:39.120 Emit

00:46:39.600 And

00:46:40.460 Sphere out

00:46:42.480 From his influence

00:46:43.420 Around the world

00:46:43.860 Let's talk about that

00:46:44.720 So this is one of those few elections

00:46:46.480 First since

00:46:47.160 Ninety

00:46:48.020 Since 88

00:46:48.960 I believe

00:46:49.600 Where international affairs

00:46:51.420 I.e. our relationship

00:46:52.640 With the United States 0.78

00:46:53.380 Has played a big role

00:46:54.420 But it's not just us

00:46:55.900 We're seeing in Europe

00:46:56.940 In Ukraine

00:46:57.880 In Taiwan

00:46:58.840 Around the world

00:47:00.320 And in Israel

00:47:01.640 Where Netanyahu's

00:47:03.640 Tendency towards bad behavior

00:47:06.160 Has been magnified by Trump

00:47:08.420 You know

00:47:10.020 The Donald Trump effect

00:47:11.380 Internationally

00:47:12.280 Is extraordinary

00:47:13.080 I can't remember a president

00:47:14.680 That has had so much of an impact

00:47:17.040 So quickly

00:47:17.960 Internationally

00:47:19.260 What's your take on that?

00:47:20.380 Like is this

00:47:20.880 Is this

00:47:21.600 Am I right?

00:47:22.340 Is it unprecedented?

00:47:23.600 And if so

00:47:24.060 Is it good?

00:47:25.540 Wow

00:47:25.780 Two things about that

00:47:27.220 I mean

00:47:27.900 The first one

00:47:28.540 I noticed

00:47:29.000 Somebody

00:47:29.620 Compiled a list

00:47:31.040 Of the countries

00:47:31.700 That have given

00:47:32.240 Travel advisory warnings

00:47:34.360 Since Trump's inception

00:47:36.560 A couple

00:47:37.280 Two or three months ago

00:47:38.560 When

00:47:39.640 As it relates

00:47:40.960 To their citizens

00:47:41.680 Going to the U.S. 0.95

00:47:42.800 There are now

00:47:43.260 Fourteen

00:47:44.140 Western democratic

00:47:45.900 Or democratic countries

00:47:47.160 Around the world

00:47:47.820 That historically

00:47:48.620 Have been strong allies

00:47:50.020 Of the U.S. 0.92

00:47:50.520 Who are telling their citizens

00:47:51.640 Not to go to the U.S.

00:47:53.380 Because it's too dangerous

00:47:54.360 For them

00:47:54.920 Wow

00:47:55.420 That is extraordinary

00:47:56.880 The other thing

00:47:57.660 That occurred to me

00:47:58.200 Which I haven't seen

00:47:58.960 Written anywhere

00:47:59.580 Was that

00:48:00.420 If there was a country 0.98

00:48:01.980 Hypothetically 0.99

00:48:02.680 That was behaving

00:48:03.480 Exactly the way

00:48:04.420 The U.S.

00:48:04.980 Is right now

00:48:05.720 Protectionism

00:48:07.020 Threats

00:48:08.220 Isolationism

00:48:09.540 Threats of

00:48:10.940 Neo-imperial

00:48:12.040 Or corporate

00:48:12.720 Or security

00:48:13.700 Informed

00:48:14.300 Colonialism 0.81

00:48:15.060 We're going to take

00:48:15.840 Greenland

00:48:16.260 We need Canada

00:48:17.280 It's good for the world

00:48:18.540 It's good for international security

00:48:20.080 The first country 0.98

00:48:21.580 In the world

00:48:22.120 If such a hypothetical

00:48:23.420 Country existed

00:48:24.480 That would confront them

00:48:25.880 Isolate them 0.78

00:48:26.640 And possibly invade them 0.99

00:48:27.720 To stop them

00:48:28.260 From doing that

00:48:28.860 Historically

00:48:29.940 Would have been

00:48:30.760 The United States

00:48:32.080 They are behaving

00:48:33.840 As if they were

00:48:34.800 Their own worst enemy

00:48:35.780 I mean Ukraine

00:48:37.580 Is a different question

00:48:38.600 I don't know

00:48:39.020 What specific question

00:48:40.020 You want to ask

00:48:40.560 But

00:48:40.760 What's happening there

00:48:41.800 I mean

00:48:42.340 They faded from the news

00:48:43.740 This peace initiative

00:48:45.400 That Trump had

00:48:47.180 And then sabotaged himself

00:48:48.660 Is disappeared

00:48:49.580 Disappeared from the headlines

00:48:51.220 What's the state of the war

00:48:53.360 What's the state of play

00:48:54.580 In Russia

00:48:55.140 And Kiev

00:48:56.040 At the moment

00:48:56.660 Well we're in

00:48:57.840 We're at the end

00:48:59.000 Of one week

00:48:59.760 Of what 0.92

00:49:00.500 Hypothetically

00:49:01.860 Is an armistice

00:49:03.160 Or a ceasefire

00:49:04.680 When it comes to

00:49:05.600 Energy infrastructure

00:49:07.400 Ukrainians and Russians

00:49:09.020 Are not supposed to be able 0.98

00:49:10.080 To blow up

00:49:10.700 Each other's

00:49:11.640 Energy infrastructure

00:49:12.660 And Russia

00:49:13.360 Is not supposed to be

00:49:14.720 Attacked

00:49:16.100 Internally

00:49:17.420 By the Ukraines

00:49:18.340 Using Western

00:49:19.320 Made

00:49:20.100 Supplied

00:49:20.600 Or sanctioned

00:49:21.200 Weapons

00:49:21.540 There's been

00:49:23.120 Some abrogations

00:49:23.920 On both sides

00:49:24.720 And I'm not surprised

00:49:25.840 Zelensky

00:49:27.360 In the middle

00:49:27.980 Of the week

00:49:28.540 Outrightly

00:49:29.580 Rejected

00:49:31.120 Trump's

00:49:31.960 New ceasefire

00:49:32.940 Offer

00:49:33.300 Which demanded

00:49:34.540 Even more

00:49:35.420 Of Ukraine's 0.99

00:49:36.400 Wealth

00:49:36.860 And subservience

00:49:38.180 Not only to Russia

00:49:39.320 But now to the United States

00:49:40.540 In permanence

00:49:41.500 Which by the way

00:49:43.300 Let's remember

00:49:44.000 What happened

00:49:44.560 At the end

00:49:44.860 Of First World War

00:49:45.660 We made Germany pay 0.99

00:49:47.020 Which led to what

00:49:48.360 The Second World War

00:49:50.540 Right

00:49:51.980 So

00:49:52.720 I don't think

00:49:54.360 There's been any

00:49:54.980 Real movement

00:49:56.220 And now

00:49:57.100 Vladimir Putin

00:49:58.140 Just to complicate things

00:49:59.200 Says that all of the

00:50:00.300 Members of BRICS

00:50:01.340 His own economic

00:50:02.960 Organization

00:50:03.700 I suppose

00:50:04.380 The economic

00:50:05.820 Antipode to NATO

00:50:07.700 Should be involved

00:50:09.160 In these negotiations

00:50:10.120 Including North Korea

00:50:11.200 And Brazil

00:50:11.720 And South Africa

00:50:12.520 And China

00:50:13.060 And the rest

00:50:13.580 Of his buddies

00:50:14.660 In the totalitarian world

00:50:16.540 It's all a stew 1.00

00:50:18.660 Of meaningless horseshit 0.99

00:50:20.200 Why? 0.97

00:50:21.440 Well

00:50:21.960 Because the fighting

00:50:22.840 Continues

00:50:23.600 There's been a new

00:50:24.340 Push by the Ukrainians 1.00

00:50:25.460 Up into Russia 0.90

00:50:26.060 And the Kurds 0.77

00:50:26.680 They're still fighting

00:50:28.180 In the trenches

00:50:28.780 There's been absolutely

00:50:30.540 Nothing accomplished

00:50:31.700 Effectively

00:50:32.800 The only thing

00:50:33.880 It seems to have done

00:50:34.780 Is unified Europe

00:50:36.200 And now

00:50:37.220 Europe is unified

00:50:38.580 Around

00:50:39.800 Stopping

00:50:41.360 Russia's further advances

00:50:44.020 Into Ukraine

00:50:44.820 Putin oddly

00:50:46.740 Has responded to that

00:50:47.680 By suggesting

00:50:48.420 A UN-led government

00:50:50.620 In Ukraine

00:50:51.660 Because I think

00:50:52.920 He recognizes

00:50:53.640 That collectively

00:50:55.060 Europe is a much

00:50:56.480 Stronger force

00:50:57.360 Than Russia 0.88

00:50:58.340 Standing alone

00:50:59.300 But Europe

00:51:00.020 Is protecting itself

00:51:01.100 As a clan

00:51:02.280 As a group

00:51:02.960 Unifying

00:51:04.020 Economically

00:51:05.160 And militarily

00:51:05.760 Not only to protect

00:51:06.980 Itself

00:51:07.380 From Russia

00:51:08.240 But to protect

00:51:08.860 Itself

00:51:09.200 From the United States

00:51:10.100 So you have

00:51:11.440 A much harder

00:51:12.960 Concretized

00:51:13.820 Unified Europe

00:51:14.620 Which is a collection

00:51:15.460 Of pretty left-wing

00:51:16.800 And pretty right-wing

00:51:17.500 Governments

00:51:17.940 That otherwise

00:51:18.520 Should never meet

00:51:20.240 Or be getting along

00:51:21.080 On any basis

00:51:22.200 And they are unified

00:51:24.120 In their rejection

00:51:25.560 Of Trump's

00:51:26.960 Aggressive

00:51:28.380 Isolationism

00:51:29.460 And tariff

00:51:30.340 Happy

00:51:31.200 Meanderings

00:51:32.300 And they're

00:51:33.040 Certainly concerned

00:51:34.920 And ready to fight

00:51:36.480 What Putin calls

00:51:38.560 An inevitable war

00:51:39.640 And I wanted

00:51:40.080 To get to this

00:51:40.780 We don't

00:51:41.800 We have

00:51:42.240 We've got about

00:51:42.860 30 seconds

00:51:43.620 So get to it

00:51:45.180 Putin says

00:51:46.280 Thank you Mr. Trump

00:51:47.400 For giving us

00:51:48.000 Four years

00:51:48.660 To prepare

00:51:49.380 For the inevitable

00:51:50.360 War with Europe 0.66

00:51:51.740 And he tends

00:51:53.140 To tell the truth 1.00

00:51:53.960 When it comes to this shit 1.00

00:51:54.960 So that makes me worried 1.00

00:51:56.700 And that's all

00:51:57.200 I wanted to mention

00:51:57.940 Well I don't know

00:51:58.660 If I should be worried

00:51:59.420 But conclude here

00:52:00.520 I never thought

00:52:01.600 I would find myself

00:52:02.500 Applauding

00:52:03.120 Germany

00:52:03.680 Dramatically

00:52:05.360 Rearming itself

00:52:06.420 Talking about

00:52:07.480 Taking a route

00:52:08.200 Through Poland

00:52:08.880 To get to Ukraine

00:52:10.320 And the front line

00:52:11.140 With Russia 1.00

00:52:11.640 That's kind of

00:52:12.240 A reversal of history

00:52:13.180 Isn't it

00:52:13.660 But anyway

00:52:14.020 Nothing ever goes wrong

00:52:15.320 When Germany arms up 0.78

00:52:16.500 That's right

00:52:17.100 My friend

00:52:18.580 Thanks so much

00:52:19.280 For chatting with me

00:52:20.680 So early

00:52:21.220 Have a terrific day

00:52:22.580 And a terrific week

00:52:23.420 Zip zap

00:52:24.480 Eiko Eiko

00:52:25.360 We can do

00:52:54.260 We can do

00:52:54.900 We can do

00:52:55.420 What we want

00:52:56.220 We're like

00:52:59.060 Bunny and Clyde

00:53:00.020 But without any vibe

00:53:01.080 We're gonna make out

00:53:01.940 If they shoot out

00:53:02.560 On the day

00:53:02.980 That we thought

00:53:03.440 We put our mates

00:53:04.260 With big lights

00:53:04.740 We put our lives

00:53:05.540 On the line

00:53:06.060 We can do

00:53:06.940 We can do

00:53:07.580 We can do

00:53:08.040 What we want

00:53:08.880 What we want

00:53:09.860 We can do

00:53:19.260 We can do

00:53:19.520 We'll be right back.

00:53:49.520 We'll be right back.

00:54:19.520 We'll be right back.

00:54:49.500 I think that CSIS foreign interference story feels like a year ago.

00:54:52.680 It was like a week ago.

00:54:54.100 Just one of the big stories this week.

00:54:55.780 Warren Kinsella also here.

00:54:57.060 He is a strategist and post-media columnist.

00:54:59.020 Good morning, Warren.

00:55:00.300 I love elections.

00:55:01.380 What's the problem?

00:55:02.340 I wish they could go forever.

00:55:04.020 Nerd Super Bowl.

00:55:05.160 That's what's happening this week.

00:55:06.500 Tasha Carradine is also here, political columnist for the National Post and a writer for GZero

00:55:10.500 Media and author, too.

00:55:11.720 Tasha, good morning.

00:55:13.440 Is it Sunday?

00:55:14.620 Oh, yeah.

00:55:16.300 We're all kind of stumbling through this campaign trying to remember what happened yesterday.

00:55:20.040 So I wanted to get you guys a week or takeaways just from the first week of the campaign.

00:55:24.720 But first, I wanted to start with a couple of things that are very pressing right now in terms of what's hitting both parties right now.

00:55:30.900 One of them will start in Toronto here.

00:55:33.040 This story about Paul Chang.

00:55:34.640 This is a Toronto candidate, GTA Liberal candidate, suggesting there's been an interview that's come to light here over the last few days, suggesting that people attempt to claim a Chinese bounty on a local conservative candidate there.

00:55:46.040 That is Joe Tay.

00:55:47.520 Now, from the looks of it, it appears that the Liberals are standing behind this candidate as of right now.

00:55:52.320 So, Warren, I'd mentioned this is kind of probably the first bozo eruption of what will probably be many for others. 0.96

00:55:57.940 But what do you think about the Liberals' handling of this candidate?

00:56:01.820 Should he be allowed to stay on in this circumstance?

00:56:04.320 Well, I think it's far worse than a bozo eruption. 1.00

00:56:08.200 You know, I think this is legitimately a case of campaign election democracy interference of the type that Madam Justice Hogue was writing about.

00:56:17.800 And even more seriously, putting on my lawyer's hat, I wonder if it is now kind of transgressed into the criminal code.

00:56:24.940 It's advocating an indictable offense, placing a bounty on a Canadian's head, in this case, an opponent in an election race.

00:56:35.600 I think it's very, very serious.

00:56:37.340 It broke in the Chinese media midweek, didn't really get covered until Friday, surprisingly, tellingly.

00:56:45.920 But it's an important story.

00:56:48.520 And, you know, something like this that happened in the United States would be front page for a week.

00:56:52.900 Maybe not so much these days, but it's big, big news.

00:56:57.200 And I don't think there should have been any debate within the Carney campaign.

00:57:01.740 They needed to get rid of this guy and get rid of him immediately.

00:57:05.140 And it is deplorable that they've not done so yet.

00:57:08.840 Yeah, and Carl, there's nothing funny about what he's suggesting here in many senses, right, putting out a bounty to be arrested and perhaps worse in some kind of way, shape or form.

00:57:17.940 Are you surprised that the liberals, you know, given the, I guess, the campaign momentum that they have right now, that they didn't just simply cut this guy loose?

00:57:26.440 Yeah, no, I am surprised.

00:57:27.660 And it's funny because, you know, from the, you know, from the outside world, you look at it, there's no reason for him, for them not to cut them loose.

00:57:36.040 But, but they are not, you know, sure that they are actually winning this.

00:57:42.500 And that's why they're not cutting him loose.

00:57:44.600 And, and, you know, in a way, it's actually a problem for them because if they had cut him loose, it would be over.

00:57:52.700 You would not talk about it.

00:57:54.400 And now we are talking about it and it confirms that they are not, you know, fully, you know, aware of the situation.

00:58:03.140 And they're probably thinking twice about where they are.

00:58:07.680 And, and frankly, I think it's an impediment on their campaign.

00:58:11.300 They should cut him loose.

00:58:13.420 They should have done that.

00:58:14.960 But if that did it, they allowed it to linger.

00:58:18.060 And that's the kind of situation that, you know, could derail the campaign.

00:58:22.320 And we'll see if we see a reversal.

00:58:24.560 But as of last night, standing behind this candidate, Tasha, they're saying this apology is good enough in many senses here.

00:58:31.100 I guess, how do you think the party has handled this situation?

00:58:34.200 Badly.

00:58:34.780 And this is, okay, they got to watch out.

00:58:36.780 This is what kids think them.

00:58:38.380 They're flying so high like Icarus by the sun.

00:58:41.020 It's all nice.

00:58:41.700 These kinds of issues and how they handle them are the ones that can sink a flying campaign.

00:58:48.660 And this goes to the heart, actually, of the Canada-U.S. relationship.

00:58:53.780 Trump.

00:58:54.360 All sorts of issues around China and Canada.

00:58:57.320 And the fact that it's not just fentanyl.

00:59:00.020 That's more of a, you know, it's a, that's in the window.

00:59:02.840 But the U.S. has been very annoyed at how Canada has allowed ourselves to be infiltrated by China on multiple levels.

00:59:11.700 And while I'm not saying this man is infiltrated, to say that implies that it's okay to suppress free speech in Hong Kong and have someone, you know, be, be forcibly taken back, kidnapped, essentially, on a bounty to go back and face a charge that in Canada wouldn't be a charge because we believe in free speech.

00:59:29.700 This is the kind of thing that Carney needs to get ahead of.

00:59:33.880 He even said we should not pivot to China on trade.

00:59:37.020 We should pivot to other nations that are, you know, more democratic like us.

00:59:40.700 Well, what's he doing here?

00:59:42.580 Bad look.

00:59:43.400 Very bad look.

00:59:44.340 And what frustrates me, though, is, yeah, the headlines are conservatives call for this guy to be turfed.

00:59:50.420 No, no, no, no, no, no, no.

00:59:51.560 A lot of people are calling for him to be turfed.

00:59:53.480 Yeah, and it's hard to describe the feeling of why this isn't or the thought that this guy isn't gone as of yet, but that's the decision they're standing by.

01:00:04.140 We'll see how that kind of plays out.

01:00:05.940 When it comes to the other side of the political spectrum on the conservative side, we're seeing the last few days the stories have been kind of mounting from a number of different news organizations talking about some inner turmoil within the conservative campaign, which is just kind of very interesting.

01:00:18.620 I'd love your thoughts on this, Tasha, for a couple of different reasons.

01:00:21.260 One, it seems like, I'm not sure, is this a warning signal to try to, you know, put the smoke signal out to the national campaign that, hey, we need some help here.

01:00:30.480 We really got to figure this out.

01:00:32.180 There's some inner turmoil happening, personal stuff.

01:00:34.740 Just what's your read of why this is happening now?

01:00:36.700 This is a month away from the election.

01:00:38.660 You still got 40 percent in some polls.

01:00:40.500 The conservatives are still polling very high.

01:00:41.980 So I just don't understand where this is kind of coming from right now.

01:00:45.340 Well, it's coming from Corey to Nike.

01:00:47.140 For one person, I was shocked to see, you know, the architect of, or one of the architects anyway, of Doug Ford's victory in Ontario, well-respected conservative strategist at both federal and provincial levels, coming out and outing an internal poll.

01:01:03.920 You don't do that.

01:01:04.900 Internal polls are internal for a reason.

01:01:07.260 Parties use them to gauge the mood so that they have a better idea perhaps in what is in the public space.

01:01:13.180 He outed an internal poll showing the conservatives falling in Ontario and how bad it was and saying they've got to change direction in a very public way.

01:01:23.620 I'm really, if he's doing that, there's a problem there.

01:01:28.440 The wheels are falling off the bus.

01:01:30.120 I've talked personally to several people who thought they would be the candidates in the greater Toronto area who worked their tails off for a year, year and a half, selling membership, keeping the face full in the fold. 0.97

01:01:41.240 And the party treated them like garbage. 0.84

01:01:43.220 It didn't even call them to tell them that, oh, guess what? 0.99

01:01:46.760 Someone else is being appointed in that riding you thought you had that we told you you'd probably have and, you know, just suck it up, basically.

01:01:55.580 The party has a management problem.

01:01:58.140 And I think that's partly at the root of this is that the way they have dealt with the election and people that they're supposed to be that are on their team,

01:02:05.000 the grumbling is getting public because people are mad at how the parties handle things.

01:02:11.080 And so I think that they have a serious problem.

01:02:14.180 There are ways of fixing it, perhaps, but with four weeks to go, it's really, really a high bar, high slog to do.

01:02:21.320 And it seems like Corey tonight got the ball rolling.

01:02:23.480 And then that was the other stuff we were hearing later in the week, which you're kind of talking about, this, I guess, mismatch or just kind of lack of cohesiveness between the local candidates,

01:02:31.980 some very upset or kind of left behind in all of this, and with the national kind of campaign as well.

01:02:37.520 So it feels like it's a couple of different things happening at once.

01:02:40.660 Warren, what is your read on all of this?

01:02:42.960 And again, I'll point out, we still got a month before the election.

01:02:46.400 Well, full disclosure, Corey's a friend.

01:02:48.360 I didn't talk to him ahead of time, you know, him doing this, but I can tell you he's a very smart cat and he would not be doing this without approval.

01:02:58.180 And what that says to me is the Trump, Trump, the Ford guys.

01:03:05.900 I'll clip that.

01:03:06.920 It's OK.

01:03:07.880 Trump probably actually likes it because he loves division.

01:03:10.440 But the Ford guys have decided that Pierre Polyev can't win.

01:03:17.400 And, you know, the polls suggest strongly that that's the case.

01:03:21.080 You know, I think Liaison last night has been doing a daily rolling poll, small sample, but, you know, they've got a baseline and it's showing liberals, you know, six points ahead.

01:03:31.740 So I think the Ford guys, like the media and a lot of other people, decided that Polyev is losing and the Ford guys are making their move.

01:03:41.860 And there may be some very rapid changes after the election if Mr. Polyev doesn't win it.

01:03:47.580 Like Polyev's in a, he's in a tough, tough situation, guys.

01:03:50.940 Like, so this week, you know, he had some wins like this, you know, candidates saying there's a place of bounty on the opponent and Carney, the plagiarism thing.

01:04:02.880 There was some stuff that helped the Tories, but it doesn't seem to be moving the needle.

01:04:07.180 Next week's going to be even worse because the tariffs are going to hit.

01:04:11.320 That's going to occupy all of the breathing room for any other stories.

01:04:15.920 People are going to necessarily turn their attention to the government for a governmental response.

01:04:21.500 And the leader of the opposition, you know, he's going to be lucky if he gets two people to pay attention to him.

01:04:26.060 So, you know, he's going to be entering week three, probably with more of these process civil war stories.

01:04:32.800 And that it's pretty tough to recover from that.

01:04:35.480 I think at this point, probably the Tories are putting all of their money on the debate fights and how well they're going to do there if they want to turn this thing around.

01:04:42.620 And we saw even this week with that, you know, the phone call and the auto tariffs, how it just took over for two days, right?

01:04:48.040 And you can easily get the message kind of lost in there.

01:04:50.540 And, you know, Carl, that was kind of my first thought here.

01:04:52.660 You know, the idea that, you know, some people aren't happy with the way this is going.

01:04:57.380 But I was thinking, you know, it's still very early.

01:04:59.960 You know, could we be seeing people kind of carving out corners for an eventual loss?

01:05:03.400 But it still seems kind of so early, I guess.

01:05:05.380 What's your read on what you're hearing about all of the infighting here within the Conservatives?

01:05:09.580 The smell of a losing campaign.

01:05:13.520 That's what's happening.

01:05:15.280 And there is not much they can do about it because the real campaign is not Polly versus Carney.

01:05:21.100 It's Carney versus Trump.

01:05:22.980 And that's what people are looking at.

01:05:24.880 And on that front, there is very little Carney can do to lose that because people are rallying behind the leader during the crisis.

01:05:33.020 And that's the calculation that the Liberals did when they, you know, called this campaign.

01:05:39.280 They didn't need to solve it.

01:05:41.100 They don't actually want to solve it.

01:05:43.860 They just needed to keep going.

01:05:45.900 And they knew that Trump would, you know, go down that road during this campaign.

01:05:50.400 And that's what happened this week.

01:05:51.760 That's what will happen next week.

01:05:53.160 And that's what will happen over the next month for the Liberals.

01:05:57.120 It's win-win.

01:05:58.500 There is nothing that can happen that will make them lose this momentum that they have because people are looking at Trump and they're making the following calculation.

01:06:10.460 A, Pierre Poirier is too close and looks too much like Donald Trump.

01:06:16.520 We don't want him.

01:06:18.020 B, Mark Carney looks like a serious guy.

01:06:21.140 We are behind him to fight Trump.

01:06:23.740 That's it.

01:06:24.440 That's the campaign.

01:06:25.860 And we know once those perceptions are kind of built in or what you kind of feel like you're going to vote for, it is very difficult to kind of change people's minds.

01:06:32.220 So we'll see if they're able to kind of square that circle over the course of the next few weeks here or make it a little bit softer.

01:06:38.180 I guess, Carl, I'll stick with you just talking about that first week of the campaign because, you know, to the Trump-Cartney phone call taking up a huge part of it here.

01:06:45.020 Just one on that phone call, we did see, you know, Donald Trump kind of take a more, we'll say, as gracious as Donald Trump can be tone, talking about Carney, you know, calling him the prime minister and not a governor and things like that.

01:06:56.880 Are we taking too much away from that?

01:06:58.980 It seems like a little bit of a 180 from Donald Trump, but the bar is also very low at this point.

01:07:03.600 Well, it's very low, and that was the calculation, right?

01:07:07.000 Like, unless he called him Governor Carney, and unless he doubled down on the 51st state, it looks like Carney is actually making progress.

01:07:16.440 So for Canadians, they're looking at this like, well, that was a good thing to get rid of Trudeau.

01:07:22.300 We have Carney who's, like, making progress.

01:07:25.200 Things are looking up.

01:07:27.100 So liberals are just basing their campaign on this.

01:07:30.120 And if you look at what Trump said in that email, he said, no, of course, he didn't say the thing about the 51st state.

01:07:39.520 He also said, I expect to meet with Mark Carney after the election.

01:07:44.520 He already thinks that Carney's going to win.

01:07:48.060 And for the conservative, it's a big problem, especially when you have Daniel Smith, the premier of Alberta, campaigning in the United States, trying to convince the Trump administration to help you up well.

01:08:00.260 Yes, that's because of that.

01:08:02.820 Helping.

01:08:03.280 I think that's what she calls it.

01:08:04.240 I think she says she's helping, for sure.

01:08:06.360 A couple of things I wanted to ask you about Carney.

01:08:09.100 I'll ask you as well.

01:08:10.160 Just this idea.

01:08:10.760 So the Bermuda-Brookfield story I thought was very interesting and might have some legs this week in terms of bringing some, I guess, not mud, but some serious questions into perspective about Mark Carney and his finances.

01:08:23.480 Do you still think with that story and, you know, his finances, do you still think that could be an issue that Canadians aren't a big fan of or could reject Carney on?

01:08:31.700 Could that be the thing that brings him down, I suppose?

01:08:33.580 Well, the conservatives are banking on character assassination because they don't really have a lot else.

01:08:39.160 And they did this.

01:08:39.980 They do this very effectively.

01:08:41.120 The character assassinated Justin Trudeau for two years and drove his numbers into the grave.

01:08:46.080 The character assassinated during leadership, the other candidates, and drove them into the grave.

01:08:50.780 This is what they do.

01:08:52.140 The problem with this is that, first of all, most people don't even know what Brookfield is.

01:08:56.300 The average person on the street is like, what?

01:08:58.040 But the tax haven thing, yes, it does strike at the notion, un-Canadian, you know, it's hard to explain that one away.

01:09:06.360 People who aren't in business circles will say, okay, there you go, crooked business again.

01:09:10.960 But I think that people who see that, their eyes are still glazing over because of the Trump, the larger issue, right?

01:09:20.140 In the same way Trump, I hate to say, got away with so many bad things he did.

01:09:24.600 But, I mean, business and other, the guy is, you know, he's not a great businessman, actually.

01:09:29.780 But people just were blinded by the light of, I don't know, his celebrity status and he's going to, you know, he's the guy.

01:09:37.320 It's a similar phenomenon except, you know, Carney's not a celebrity.

01:09:41.020 But I think to what Carl has said, it's that people look at the situation and go, okay, he made some progress.

01:09:47.980 Let's, you know, this makes me feel better.

01:09:50.040 Stay with that.

01:09:50.780 And they're trying to picture in their head Polyev on that call.

01:09:53.600 That's what I, you know, I was thinking, well, what would he have said?

01:09:56.420 How would that have gone?

01:09:57.760 We don't know, right?

01:09:58.940 But we do know how this went.

01:10:00.380 So, I don't know.

01:10:01.580 I think they'll keep doing this, the character assassination, because, like I said, it's one of the few things they've got right now.

01:10:07.020 Warren, do you see this as the most kind of effective line of attack right here right now?

01:10:10.100 I guess the kind of flip side is, right, I don't think anybody would surprise, you know, corporations are trying to pay as little tax as possible.

01:10:16.100 Well, shocking, I know, but could this be one of the things in terms of his finances that could be, you know, his undoing, if anything?

01:10:23.200 No.

01:10:23.740 In fact, it may rebound in his favor, you know, and, you know, drive everybody's attention to the mango Mussolini. 0.59

01:10:31.540 You know, one of the reasons why, if you look at the research going back to 2016, why Trump won is people saw him as a successful business person.

01:10:42.940 And, you know, a lot of Americans, a lot of Canadians believe if you're a successful business person, you should run government.

01:10:48.900 I actually have the completely opposite view.

01:10:51.240 But anyway, that's what most people think.

01:10:53.180 And so what the Tories are doing here is actually highlighting Carney's strength, not his weakness.

01:11:01.300 The same thing happened in 2008 with Obama.

01:11:04.960 You know, the Republicans, I don't know if you guys remember, I'm old.

01:11:08.200 And the Republicans went after the fact that Obama had been a community organizer in Chicago, and they made fun of that, and they mocked it.

01:11:15.480 They thought, you know, it was a negative.

01:11:17.320 Well, a lot of voters, particularly young voters, thought it was a positive, and it's, you know, why young people voted for him more than they'd had for any president for, you know, many elections before.

01:11:29.460 Same thing here.

01:11:30.940 I think what the Tories are doing are actually testifying to Carney's strength, which is a smart economic business kind of guy, which is what we need right now when we're fighting an economic war.

01:11:42.080 And I wanted to touch on just what we have a couple of minutes, just the NDP as well.

01:11:45.720 And, you know, if I wasn't following the campaign as closely as I have been, it would be very difficult to hear from Jagmeet Singh right now.

01:11:52.100 There's just been so much kind of going on, and, you know, a lot of it has to do with Donald Trump.

01:11:56.540 But, Carl, it appears, and even Jagmeet Singh said this this week, that, you know, they're not going to go after Carney on tariffs or anything kind of like that in terms of U.S. relations because they want to kind of have a united front, and they're going to hit him on a bunch of domestic issues, including, you know, housing and things like that.

01:12:12.860 Is that the right strategy if you're trying to kind of maintain party status and pick up some seats here?

01:12:17.680 It seems like they are seeding that they're going to get blown out, I guess, here in the next month.

01:12:21.940 Yeah, I guess they're taking one from the team, because if you don't go after Carney, you're going to lose.

01:12:28.840 And, you know, the fundraising emails that the NDP was sending this week, they were all focused on Pierre Poirier.

01:12:34.880 The more they talk about Pierre Poirier winning, the more they talk about being scared of Pierre Poirier forming a government, the more votes they lose.

01:12:44.320 But they're doubling down on that.

01:12:46.220 So it's a problem.

01:12:47.500 It's a big problem.

01:12:49.000 And likely, if they don't find a solution, it's going to be Jagmeet Singh's last election.

01:12:55.300 They need to go after Mark Carney.

01:12:57.080 They also need to remind people that Mark Carney is actually not as progressive as his party.

01:13:04.280 In fact, he's running as a progressive conservative, but that's just a label.

01:13:09.180 What's coming is a liberal austerity program.

01:13:12.360 They need to double down on that.

01:13:14.320 If they don't do that, they are in big, big trouble.

01:13:17.780 In fact, they are in big trouble right now.

01:13:19.720 And the truth is that if they don't pivot, if they're not able to go after Mark Carney, there is very little upside for the NDP's campaign on right now.

01:13:32.680 Because people are afraid of Pierre Poirier.

01:13:35.140 They're scared of Pierre Poirier.

01:13:37.020 Mark Carney is benefiting from it.

01:13:39.320 And Warren, do you think that the NDP should be pivoting here?

01:13:42.960 You know, even as, you know, trying to sell yourself as the party that will keep the liberals honest here, if they do get in, do you think that a pivot is needed from the NDP so people know where they are right now?

01:13:55.960 Sorry.

01:13:56.600 I think we lost Warren there for a second.

01:13:58.800 Oh, sorry.

01:13:59.580 Oh, no, you're good.

01:14:00.220 You're good.

01:14:00.880 Sorry.

01:14:01.460 No, I was muted by Jagmeet Singh.

01:14:03.880 So, you know, I think they, in fairness to them, I think they actually did some things right this week.

01:14:10.040 For example, when the auto stuff broke, and that was the big story, Pierre Poirier was out in BC, and he didn't even talk about auto.

01:14:19.540 And Singh changed his schedule.

01:14:21.420 And he rushed down to the southwestern Ontario and talked about the issue and met with workers.

01:14:27.400 That's smart.

01:14:28.320 Or, for example, I got a notification that they had a candidate campaigning with a guy who talked about wiping Israel off the map.

01:14:37.840 And they got rid of that campaign worker, and that was the right move.

01:14:41.780 So they've made some of the right moves, but they're not getting any credit for it.

01:14:45.080 Why is that?

01:14:46.160 I think because they propped up Justin Trudeau for too long.

01:14:48.860 People are mad at them.

01:14:49.900 And they also are not seen as a credible voice to offset the Donald Trump issue, which we all agree is the biggest issue in campaign 2025.

01:14:58.660 So, you know, they're doing some things right, but they're not getting credit for it.

01:15:02.660 I thought it was interesting, too, a housing announcement there.

01:15:04.500 They were using a Brookfield-owned apartment building.

01:15:06.480 I thought that was kind of sly, too, but the message was completely lost, I guess.

01:15:10.540 Tasha, when it comes to the NDP, what do they have to do to at least get some attention here in this campaign for the next month?

01:15:17.980 Ah, that is a million-dollar question for them.

01:15:21.060 They'll be calling you after this.

01:15:23.320 Well, no, because Jagmeet Singh had floated the word minority and said, you know, let's hold the Liberals to him.

01:15:28.900 And we're ready to prop up a Liberal minority.

01:15:31.300 He said that, essentially.

01:15:32.620 And so, or work with the Liberals or whatever he couched it in.

01:15:35.840 Because it's gone so well, right?

01:15:37.740 Yeah, we could have more of the last three years.

01:15:40.220 Maybe not.

01:15:41.860 So, I think that they're stuck just like Paulyev is stuck because of the ballot question.

01:15:48.240 But it's kind of worse for them in some ways because their base is really pouring off to the Liberals.

01:15:54.220 They have a place to go.

01:15:55.400 Even though Carney is not progressive, as NDP voters would probably like, absolutely.

01:16:00.200 But the alternative is Mini-MAGA, in their minds, which is the Conservatives.

01:16:05.060 They look over there and they say, no, no, no, no, no.

01:16:07.100 So, they have an outlet.

01:16:09.460 So, that's why you're seeing the NDP at six seats.

01:16:12.460 Last, I saw in the projections, it's a disaster.

01:16:15.300 But I'm not sure what they can do.

01:16:16.880 They can't go hyper-local.

01:16:18.340 And I think that's maybe what they can.

01:16:19.880 Some of their candidates are very popular on the ground.

01:16:21.780 They can double down on hyper-local campaigns and really just focus on saving the furniture.

01:16:27.800 Because I think that is the best they can hope to do, honestly, in this election.

01:16:33.100 And on that front end, if I can add, that's the model that Merritt Stiles and the Ontario NDP had.

01:16:39.880 They were 10% behind the Ontario Liberals and they doubled their seat count.

01:16:46.380 That's the hope the NDP has.

01:16:47.920 The problem is that at 6%, there is not much furniture to save.

01:16:54.180 No, you're just waiting for, I guess, rearranging the deck chairs at this point.

01:16:57.880 But we'll see how it squares out for the next week anyway.

01:17:00.760 But Carl, Warren, Tasha, thank you so much for your time this morning.

01:17:03.420 I very much appreciate it.

01:17:04.960 Thank you.

01:17:05.880 Stay safe, stay warm out there, guys.

01:17:07.520 That is Carl Belanger, president at Traction Strategies.

01:17:09.680 Warren Kinsella, he's a strategist and post-media columnist.

01:17:12.140 You can read his latest in the Toronto Sun.

01:17:13.980 Tasha Carradine, political columnist for the National Post and author, a writer for GZero Media.

01:17:18.100 You can see her on Substack as well.

01:17:19.980 You can find her there in her latest musings.

01:17:22.260 Always interesting stuff.

01:17:23.220 Science has got a name for each chemical inside your head.

01:17:43.180 And when you're crying, I wish I listened.

01:17:48.260 But my teacher said, that when she's breathing.

01:17:53.340 There's plenty of things you must remember to do.

01:17:56.600 So I got out of breathing.

01:17:59.960 There's a variety of problems inside of her boy.

01:18:09.500 Oh, yeah.

01:18:10.460 In your veins and dry and now, saliva's exit in your mouth.

01:18:13.640 I say it's gonna be okay.

01:18:15.340 I'm all right.

01:18:15.900 And you're so two-faced.

01:18:17.100 Why repeat the same questions? 0.98

01:18:19.820 Well, I'm gonna repeat the same nonsense.

01:18:23.240 I'm all right.

01:18:23.800 What do you think so wrong about?

01:18:25.460 Take it out there, cause you can't get your head on.

01:18:28.320 It's gonna hold you again.

01:18:37.040 Try it. 0.99

01:18:39.560 Tripping on the sides of your titties. 0.98

01:18:41.740 Now they're gonna say, use what you're buying. 0.98

01:18:46.800 You're counting all these money on these corn.

01:18:49.180 You're gagging, girl. 1.00

01:19:02.580 Oh, yeah.

01:19:03.640 In my veins and dry and now, saliva's exit in your mouth.

01:19:06.820 I say it's gonna be okay.

01:19:08.560 I'm all right.

01:19:09.220 I'm just so confused.

01:19:10.240 Why?

01:19:10.740 I'm gonna repeat the same questions. 0.71

01:19:13.060 But I'm gonna repeat the same nonsense.

01:19:16.480 And I don't know if they say, well, we're not taking up the phone. 0.96

01:19:19.820 It's gonna get your head.

01:19:21.120 It's gonna hold me again.

01:19:23.080 Hold me.

01:19:23.660 Hold me.

01:19:25.520 Hold me.

01:19:25.780 Hold me.

01:19:30.120 Hold me.

kinsellacast - March 30, 2025

KINSELLACAST 355： Coyne Campaign Conjecture! Plus Kheiriddin, Belanger, Lilley, Mulroney and more! Plus Aussie and non-Aussie punk!

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