KINSELLACAST 357： Batra on media, politics and more! Hot Nasties new tune world debut! Urback, Lilley, Mraz, Kheiriddin, Belanger, Mulroney and more! Plus Laura Jane Grace, Teen Mortgage, The Slow Death and even more!
On this week's show, we talk with the great editor-in-chief of The Globe and Mail, Adrienne Batra, about the upcoming debates, the new Hot Nasty song "Time," and a bunch of other stuff.
00:04:54.300But the CBC did it this week about Tory and grit claims about their respective rally attendants.
00:05:01.660And lo and behold, they discovered that the political parties were lying about size.
00:05:08.340As in the bedroom, as in life, when you claim something is really big, someone's eventually going to get out the measuring tape.
00:05:16.400Anyway, the leaders are now having a down date.
00:05:19.300Well, actually, it's usually a down date, but they're both on, as Brian Lilly points out on this week's show,
00:05:24.140Tout le monde en parle, which is the big, big talk show in Quebec.
00:05:28.480So Carney and Polyev are both on, although not at the same time, but they're getting ready for the debates.
00:05:34.600The debates are taking place on Wednesday and Thursday, so you're going to see less of them at their rallies, in quotation marks,
00:05:40.140and quite a bit more of their advertising, because consultants like me heavy up our ad buy during down days and debate prep days.
00:05:49.440So this week, you're going to be reminded that Pierre Polyev is a way better debater than Mark Carney, I think.
00:05:54.640He's going to dominate English and French, and the bloc leader, Blanchet, is going to be a big factor in the French one, too, obviously.
00:06:01.880But it's very unlikely to change the trajectory of the election campaign, I think.
00:06:06.740As with newspapers, as with newscasts and podcasts, people don't generally devote a lot of time to watching entire political debates anymore.
00:06:16.320What they watch is clips, and that's what killed Joe Biden's candidacy last year.
00:06:21.100Not the entire debate, per se, because it went for 90 excruciating minutes on June 27th, 2024, one of the worst days of my life.
00:06:29.940The clips of Biden in the debate in his worst moments, the clips.
00:06:35.520That's how Justin Trudeau dominated in 2015.
00:06:39.120Overall, he was not, not a better debater than Stephen Harper or Thomas Mulcair.
00:06:44.240But with his unerring sense of how online media work, Trudeau would come to life at key moments that he knew would be clipped.
00:06:53.760How will Mark Carney do with the Battle of the Clips?
00:06:56.480Good question. We're going to find out this week.
00:06:59.340Oh yeah, and I just want to remind, I'm in the, I told you so, kind of mood these days.
00:07:03.980I wrote these words a year ago, one year ago, quote, the moral of the story, when you get a new leader, all bets are off.
00:07:11.400It ain't called a honeymoon for anything, for nothing, folks.
00:07:14.680If Trudeau goes, and he will, and if there's a shiny new liberal leader, and there will be, things will change.
00:07:20.200Trust me, in politics, assumptions are really dangerous.
00:07:23.640Don't assume this one is in the bag, team conservative.
01:41:20.700Robin Urbach, current affairs columnist for the Globe and Mail and Warren Kinsella, former special advisor to Jean Grazie and CEO of the Daisy Group.
01:41:36.520The center of the known universe, of course.
01:41:39.300And we have Mayor Olivia Chow raising fees for construction companies because she says that construction is the number one reason for congestion in Toronto.
01:41:50.320The construction is the number one problem, and I don't think bike lanes are the number one problem is construction.
01:41:58.340We want to make construction projects transparent, accountable, efficient, and faster so we can clear the roads and ease congestion.
01:42:08.240If it takes the entire month for two lanes of traffic on Lakeshore, it will cost them right now $287,000.
01:42:28.120I mean, and we're seeing the beginning of it too, right, because the weather is getting warmer, so that means it's construction season before we know it will head back into snow season.
01:42:37.300But, I mean, it's certainly an issue on Toronto roads for anybody who's been commuting in the city for more than five minutes.
01:42:46.260You can see the bottlenecks that occur, particularly in the downtown corn when there's any type of project happening on the streets.
01:42:55.440The lanes get sort of funneled into one lane, and everybody's trying to fight their way through traffic, and it's very difficult.
01:43:04.620I don't know how much it's going to help it practice.
01:43:06.840And I'm thinking of, you know, John Tory came out when he was mayor with a whole bunch of initiatives, too, to sort of speed up construction and to make sure that there wasn't this sort of congestion happening in the downtown core.
01:43:17.920When he was mayor and he talked about idling vehicles and people that were parking in bike lanes, and he made all these wonderful sounding promises that never actually went anywhere.
01:43:28.160My fear is that this is going to be a lot of the same thing, that we're talking about cracking down on construction that's idling and eating up lanes.
01:43:36.000And it sounds nice, and it sounds like it's going to get a lot of important things done.
01:43:39.840And in practice, we're going to see the same old, same old, and it's not going to make all that much of a difference.
01:43:45.540Warren, what's the number one problem?
01:43:47.920Well, the city, you know, she's trying to blame, she's trying to blame, and full disclosure, I've represented off and on for many years, Leuna, who does, you know, their members do a lot of that work.
01:44:00.220And, you know, the right-of-way construction permits and the street occupation permits are issued by this entity known as the City of Toronto.
01:44:09.040And so, if there is a congestion problem, and there is, like, for example, in just one month last year, nearly $1.5 billion in permits were issued by the city.
01:44:23.140And it's like, well, no kidding, guys, we have a congestion problem as a consequence of construction, because you guys are issuing permits hand over fist, but not coordinating where they're going and permitting streets to be occupied.
01:44:40.180You know, all of us have passed construction sites, and those are great, and they're good, and they provide jobs and housing for people, those are all great things.
01:44:48.680But the city is permitting people to also occupy, you know, half of a two-lane street that goes alongside that construction site.
01:44:56.540And in other major cities in the world, including New York City, they don't do that.
01:45:04.020And, you know, I know the construction guys well enough to know, if you say to them, well, we can't, you know, let you occupy that street adjacent or abutting a construction site, they'll say, okay, we'll work around it.
01:45:53.980But, you know, the issue we're talking about, construction and construction permits, it's not fair to blame the construction guys because it's the city issuing the permits.
01:46:04.040The city knows exactly what's going to happen before they issue those permits, and they do it anyway.
01:46:08.600What about, and here's what I think, it may not be the number one reason behind congestion, but I think it could be the most effective thing to do to try and ease congestion is get rid of the streetcars.
01:46:22.900And I know that that is a touchy issue in Toronto.
01:46:27.140We're one of the last major centres in North America to still have streetcars plying the downtown.
01:46:33.760And we had, you know, years ago, every city had streetcars, and everyone's gotten rid of them for a reason.
01:46:40.380I can see how driving along Queen Street or Dundas would just be so much better without streetcars.
01:47:03.900I mean, especially in the winter, when you think of the streetcars kind of idling, and you've got snow banks on either sides, and cars just simply can't get by.
01:47:12.020And then you've got a lineup of, you know, I've seen 10, 12 streetcars all lined up.
01:47:17.180But again, I think it's this very romantic notion that we have about the charm of Queen Street and Dundas and other corridors in Toronto, where we look at the streetcar, and we think it's a beautiful electric vehicle that's just cruising along.
01:47:31.580And it speaks to our sort of Toronto heritage.
01:47:34.140And I mean, there's something to that.
01:47:35.500There is something sort of charming about it in a way.
01:47:42.100It's not the most efficient way to get traffic moving in the downtown core.
01:47:46.360I just don't see it happening, especially under this mayor.
01:47:48.720I think you'd have to have a Rob Ford personality to, I think, pull the plug, so to speak, on that sort of mode of transportation.
01:47:57.900I don't see Mayor Chow ever going for something like that.
01:48:00.380I mean, I think if we wanted to keep it clean, clean energy, Warren, is just bring back the trolley buses along Queen and along Dundas, maybe even King Street as well.
01:48:12.180Because I do notice that when the streetcars are out of service for some reason and they're replaced by buses, traffic moves a lot smoother.
01:48:19.720Yeah, but they'll argue and they'll be right that, you know, a bus creates way more pollution and also causes congestion.
01:48:30.160You know, the streetcars have been in Toronto since the 1860s and a lot of people like them.
01:48:36.740They're actually, you know, literally the branding for the TTC.
01:48:39.880So I don't think it's going to happen.
01:48:42.220I know in the beach where I've got a place and, you know, it was just major disruption when they were putting it in.
01:48:50.660They actually, it's a pretty wild story.
01:48:52.820They put it in, it was ready to go, and then they discovered they made a mistake with respect to the height and the width of the new streetcars.
01:49:10.280And like, so if the streetcars are causing congestion, and I'm a Calgarian, I can tell you the first time I encountered the Toronto streetcars, I was like, oh, you know, that streetcar is slowing down and the lights are flashing.
01:51:02.340And people who supported her supported her wholeheartedly.
01:51:06.280And yet that wasn't enough to get things done.
01:51:08.120And so, I mean, you look at, for example, Pierre Polyev's rally in Edmonton, and then he brought out, I don't know, there was debate about how many people, 12,000 people, 15,000 people, whatever.
01:51:20.340I mean, the Conservatives can bring out a lot of people in Alberta.
01:51:23.980The problem is they can really, really, really win in Alberta.
01:51:27.440And that doesn't mean that they take the election and they're able to form government.
01:51:32.820And that's the problem, I think, that the polls are showing.
01:51:36.200What was interesting in the rally last night is that we saw some people outside, a couple of people wearing sweatshirts inside, saying, do you trust the polls?
01:51:45.560So, this is an idea that's sort of getting a lot of traction within Pierre Polyev's support circles.
01:51:52.600People are saying, well, look at the enthusiasm that's happening at these rallies.
01:51:56.520Look at the enthusiasm that he's getting with his online engagement.
01:52:00.400And with the people who are out there canvassing with him, they're saying that, yeah, people really, really like this guy.
01:52:08.980I mean, if you look at the broad numbers of support, the percentage of support, if we were in any other election, we'd say, wow, this guy is absolutely killing it.
01:52:18.340I mean, look at the overall popular support that he's getting.
01:52:22.000The problem is, is that an efficient vote for the Conservatives?
01:52:26.040And right now, if you believe the polls, and I know what the sweatshirts say, but if you believe the polls, it's not really an efficient vote for the Conservatives.
01:52:35.220And that's why the Liberals are projected to win a majority.
01:52:38.680Of course, there's still lots of time to go.
01:52:41.500There's other things that could change in the interim.
01:52:43.880But the projections do not look good for Pierre Polyev, even if he can bring out 12,000 people in Edmonton.
01:52:51.480You know, another way we used to gauge popularity was by lawn signs.
01:52:57.260But Warren, is it just me, or am I seeing a noticeable lack of lawn signs?
01:53:02.400And I think a lot of it has to do with the fact of the polarization, that people are afraid to say they're supporting one party or the other.
01:53:13.020I've run lots of campaigns, and I get young people coming back to the campaign office.
01:53:16.960You know, the other guys have got lots of signs, you know, on lawns everywhere, and I say, well, signs don't vote.
01:54:02.080But you can just take them all and divide them and get the middle point.
01:54:05.320And the gap right now, I think, is where Leger, Leger is the most, has been the most accurate pollster for the last two federal campaigns, is seven points.
01:54:16.140That is a big liberal majority government.
01:54:19.180And I know the Tories find it very frustrating.
01:54:21.660They devoted a lot of time to these rallies, you know, because the photos of them, they're oppressive, and it looks like momentum, and it intimidates the other guy.
01:54:30.500But everybody plays that game, and it doesn't matter in the end.
01:54:33.760What matters is, you know, in this election, you've got the Conservative Party, as it always does, with a smaller base of voters who are much more motivated and much more excited about their choice.
01:54:47.040And then you've got a larger pool of so-called, you know, centre-progressive-left voters who don't go to events like that, you know, don't get as excited.
01:54:57.560But there's a lot more of them, and they've decided as a consequence of Donald Trump that they're going to vote liberal.
02:00:15.500I always tell people, look, pay attention to what he does, not what he says.
02:00:20.400So all of us have been stealing ourselves for these insane tariffs that he announced last week.
02:00:26.500And not only did he blink last night, he folded like a cheap suit that you'd get on Times Square, because he saw, and his people, those of them who had any kind of sense, and that's a dwindling number, they saw what was happening with the bond markets.
02:00:43.780The bond markets are really important, because that's the way investors indicate confidence in a country.
02:00:50.920And the safest bond market in the history of the world is...
02:00:54.240Yeah, I just want to emphasize, just because I did a little bit of context, and the bond markets are usually that safe harbor in a storm.
02:01:01.700And they were showing signs that they were no longer a safe harbor.
02:01:08.960The safest market, safest bond market, to the tune of about 45%, has historically always been the United States.
02:01:17.640The United States has always been a safe market.
02:01:19.860And what was happening is people were saying in the bond market, the investors, well, we no longer consider the United States of America a safe bet.
02:01:32.120You know, those of us in Canada who have been buffeted by this 51st state and governor, you know, the 51st state garbage from this guy for months, we all kind of knew that.
02:01:42.860We knew that the United States had ceased to be a reliable partner, which is what, you know, Mark Carney has brought himself to say, and Pierre Polyev couldn't, which is why Polyev's losing the election.
02:01:52.220But anyway, you know, but when the bond market starts to turn away from you in the way that was happening to Trump,
02:01:59.760that was, that was a very serious situation for the viability of the United States of America.
02:02:09.040I was there just this week and, you know, people, regular folks I was talking to and they, you know, when they find out I was from Canada, they'd apologize to me.
02:02:38.220But, you know, in the United States of America, it's going to have meaningful consequences.
02:02:42.960Like I was saying to some of the people I was with, you know, those shoes that are on your feet, 99% of the shoes in the United States of America are made outside of the United States of America.
02:02:53.420You know, you guys are going to have to cough up a mortgage payment for a pair of sneakers if this guy gets his way.
02:03:36.360And it's almost like the same idea behind retaliatory tariffs.
02:03:39.480And I understand, you know, when we talk about, everyone says this, that Trump respects strength.
02:03:46.360So we need to respond to these sorts of things, which is why Canada has implemented retaliatory tariffs.
02:03:51.660And by the way, the U.S. said that they were punishing China because they retaliated and actually keeping the agreement with Canada how it is.
02:04:01.260Even though we retaliated, maybe they don't notice.
02:04:04.640But the point is, like, when you implement something like retaliatory tariffs, you do it, it punishes our own people because we want to send a signal.
02:05:08.580Yeah, no, I think that there is a lot of anxiety right now.
02:05:11.380When you talk to any therapist, they'll tell you that about a third of their patients are coming in and exhibiting anxiety about the future and so on.
02:05:20.720And, you know, the irony is politically, Pierre Poliev tapped into that for two years.
02:05:25.700And he really reflected the mood of the country.
02:05:42.020And they didn't want to lean into Canada is broken anymore.
02:05:45.520They wanted somebody who would give them some hope about the future because they were, you know, they were fed up with wallowing in the depths of despair.
02:05:53.360And, you know, that's really what has happened.