KINSELLACAST 360： E. on the Tel Aviv missile attack - plus Lilley, Kheiriddin, Belanger, Mulroney and more on the election! And： Face to Face, Naked Raygun and more
On October 7th, 2011, a terrorist attack on the Iron Dome missile defense system in Tel Aviv targeted a plane carrying Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who was on his way home from a trip to Israel. The attack left many Israelis, including Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu, unable to return to their homes in time of need.
00:25:36.000You're certainly welcome to your opinion, but I don't think your opinion alone should be based on what you are feeding yourself through social media.
00:25:53.640So what is the message there for, I don't want to hear about this person.
00:25:57.580I want to hear what you want to say to everybody about this place that they think they understand about Israel, but they don't maybe necessarily understand.
00:26:08.080What do you want to say to all of the reasonable people out there who are listening?
00:26:14.600Well, the reasonable people is, you know, you come here.
00:26:20.420Or, you know, if that's not a possibility, you know, branch out in where you're receiving your information.
00:26:26.800And be very prudent in how you receive that information and how you process that information before you make a firm opinion or perspective on what this place is.
00:26:39.400And actually, who makes up the populace here?
00:26:42.160Because I think that is what is particularly unknown or what some people may be ignorant to is that this place is one of the most multicultural places I have ever been in the world.
00:26:53.960But again, if you want to have such a strong opinion, particularly if speaking to the non-rational people of one that is just full of vitriol and hatred, I really do think you need to visit this place.
00:27:05.800And talk to the people that are actually involved in this particular crisis day in and day out and historically have been, you know, the young people here, but also people that have lived here for a very long time and have experienced many other situations here.
00:27:22.120I don't think you can fully understand unless you talk to the people who actually experience it.
00:27:26.360From the comfort of our lovely lives back home in Canada, we can't possibly understand it.
01:17:42.280You know, I thought that Paulie have actually ran a very disciplined campaign.
01:17:45.860I thought the Liberals ran an okay campaign, but on balance, none of it mattered.
01:17:53.700You know, when Justin Trudeau leaving, Donald Trump arriving, those were the seismic events in this campaign.
01:18:00.980And that's what really determined the outcome.
01:18:03.840And, you know, we may still have a liberal majority.
01:18:07.020There's just a whole pile of seats that are too close to call, as they say.
01:18:11.780And, you know, it's just extraordinary when you consider at the start of the year, the Conservative Party of Canada under Pierre Polyeb was 30 points ahead.
01:18:23.060And he's lost his seat, and he decisively lost his seat.
01:18:27.640He got clobbered by a newcomer to politics, and his party lost the election.
01:18:34.080So, I mean, at a minimum, I believe that Polyeb has to take responsibility and resign as leader.
01:19:15.400What's his – we still don't know what kind of Prime Minister Mark Carney is going to be because, in my opinion, he hasn't yet been properly vetted.
01:21:36.040So, you know, I think I think we'll see how that plays out in the weeks, the weeks to come.
01:21:40.580You know, as Warren says, let the games begin.
01:21:42.120And as to Alberta, look, it's clear that Danielle Smith wants to go down this road.
01:21:47.280She already put out a statement saying, you know, that the liberal government is attacking Alberta, you know, yada, yada, yada.
01:21:52.600She's going to replay those greatest hits because it shields her from having to talk about her own government's failures.
01:21:58.120But I just don't sense that there's an appetite in Alberta outside of the, you know, sort of rural, you know, the rural communities that tend to always be interested in Alberta independence.
01:22:10.780You know, we we saw 30 percent of the vote go liberal.
01:22:13.680We saw, you know, two seats won by the liberals, not as much as they were hoping for.
01:22:17.680But there just isn't this groundswell of support for Alberta independence, especially right now.
01:22:22.840And and hopefully Mark Carney addresses that early on.
01:22:26.360And, you know, I've written a column saying that he should get rid of the emissions cap.
01:22:29.480I think that would go a long way towards nipping this in the bud.
01:22:32.420And then we can get on to more important matters because Alberta independence is not important.
01:22:37.160Now, let's assume for a moment that the numbers that we saw last night hold and the liberals maintain a minority.
01:22:45.500How do they get anything through the House of Commons?
01:22:47.540Do they try to form some sort of official relationship with the NDP?
01:22:51.500Do they invite some of those caucus members into their party, effectively tacking back to the left after pivoting to the center under Mark Carney?
01:23:03.760I mean, I think to Warren's point, it's still so close to call or too close to call.
01:23:08.000But I you're talking about I think the NDP currently have seven seats.
01:23:11.800That math would get them north of 172.
01:23:13.900I mean, you're talking about a decimated leader of this party that has no leader in caucus.
01:23:20.260They don't have official party status.
01:23:21.720So I don't think it will be overly difficult for them to, you know, put some olive branches out, maybe invite some of them to cross the floor and join the liberal caucus.
01:23:30.820I just you know how thin that margin is between the minority and the majority.
01:23:35.040I just don't think it'll be that much of a challenge for them to to coerce some of that some of those NDP MPs to vote alongside them.
01:23:43.120Warren, is it naive of me to hope for a scenario where the liberals in an attempt to govern on behalf of all Canadians try to find common cause on a few key issues as they relate to the Trump tariff threat on a few key issues that matter to Tories to find something that they could all vote in favor of?
01:24:06.120Because that would represent over 80 percent of the will of the people.
01:24:09.040Well, you're never naive, and I don't think that that's naive at all.
01:24:15.100I was one of the people opining that, you know, we're going through an existential crisis.
01:24:19.780We've got the most powerful person on Earth talking about taking us over, talking about using economic force against us, you know, mocking us, mocking our leadership, all of our leaders.
01:24:29.780So I felt for some time that having some kind of a unity government or at least a coalition or whatever you want to call it is a prudent thing to do because we've got to respond as a country.
01:24:42.300You know, Daniel Smith, once again, like she she never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.
01:24:47.520Once again, she's breaking away from the popular consensus.
01:24:50.940She can't even bring herself to say now we need to face the threat that is posed by the United States and by the Trump administration.
01:24:58.960So, you know, I think that that's not naive at all.
01:25:06.300I mean, I think everybody wins in a scenario like that.
01:25:09.060Everybody has a chance to look like they're putting country over party.
01:25:12.300Things could get accomplished and we don't go back into the same old routines of, OK, the liberals gravitate to the NDP to get their agenda back and then the Tories gripe about it.
01:25:21.980It could it could be a chance to reset and do something different if only on one or two issues.
01:25:30.320You know, I think if the liberals are looking to poach MPs to cross the floor, I'd much rather see them looking to the conservative side than the NDP side for precisely that reason.
01:25:40.400You know, I think there's a bunch of issues as as divided as the parties are on on culture war stuff, on bread and butter issues, you know, whether it's interprovincial trade barriers, whether it's housing, whether it's dealing with Trump.
01:25:52.740There is a large amount of overlap between the conservatives and liberals on how to go forward.
01:25:57.680And I think that Carney should absolutely go down that road.
01:26:00.040He should he should dare the conservatives to to not go along with them on building more housing, on knocking down these trade barriers, on building energy corridors.
01:26:08.720And, you know, he doesn't you know, he doesn't need the for those.
01:26:12.180He needs the conservatives to come along for the ride.
01:26:17.720Well, more with our political panel when we continue, including where do the conservatives go from here after this loss in the 45th federal election?
01:27:09.460If you look at the numbers, however, when they were poised for that, quote unquote, super majority of over 200 seats, they were going to do that with 44 percent of the vote.
01:27:16.640They they they they captured just shy of 42 percent.
01:27:19.940So it's not an it's not an epic failure.
01:27:22.280But that being said, all of that is spin.
01:28:45.920Chris Chapin, does the calculus for the party change if the Liberals maintain this minority or if after all the votes are counted, they actually form a majority government?
01:28:58.020Because if they have a minority with the current calculus, I mean, they could plot along for a few years or they might fall after their first budget.
01:29:07.900But if they have a majority, they're there for four years, which then gives the Conservative Party time to rebuild.
01:29:13.780But if if an election could be called at at the drop of a hat, don't they need a leader locked and loaded?
01:29:23.420And I don't think the calculus does change.
01:29:25.460I've thought a lot about this since last night.
01:29:27.660And I I think the party just needs to do I don't want to say something as cliche as soul searching, but I think we need to ask ourselves, you know, was the 42 percent last night a really good turnout in a three way race?
01:29:41.420Or was it a a poor turnout in what turned into being a two way race and electorally?
01:29:46.880It turned out to be not nearly enough in what was a two horse election.
01:29:51.640But I think the question I keep going back to is why did it become a two horse race and what what did we as a party do to cause it to become us versus the Liberals and where what did we maybe do that made the NDP voters, you know, and I won't even say just the NDP voters.
01:30:09.760I'd say the entire Canadian electorate has shifted the there's been a lot of talk that the NDP voters all backed Mark Carney, but the Tories won 13 seats from the NDP.
01:30:21.380Like, yeah, there was something that was appealing to NDP held ridings before about Pierre Polia, but there was something clearly very unappealing to many people across the country about the form of politics we put forward.
01:30:34.620And I don't believe that that was solely to do with Donald Trump.
01:30:37.620I think there was something about our party that that we need to figure out what we got wrong, because Pierre Polia has won that seat in Carleton, you know, election after election after election handily.
01:30:50.460And it wasn't a small defeat last night in his own riding.
01:30:52.900And so I think that's where we really need to look at is what what changed so drastically in the last four months and what do we need to do to do to fix that?
01:31:01.740And I think that that I think that's bigger than just the leader.
01:31:04.560Yeah. And Max, if if things can change that quickly to the detriment of the conservatives, couldn't they change back just as fast?
01:31:11.960I mean, the danger is that, you know, there's a lot to like if you're conservative about Pierre Polia and what he brought to the party and how he who he brought into the party.
01:31:22.760And there's a danger that if you get rid of him after this result, you're throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
01:31:29.180There is. There's also the risk that you've doubled down on the same formula that didn't work.
01:31:34.440And that's that's the choice that conservatives, I guess, have to have to make right now.
01:31:38.400You know, to me, the most interesting under the surface outcome or below the top line outcome last night was Ontario,
01:31:45.760because the seat projections in the rest of the country were mostly spot on.
01:31:50.280But in Ontario, they missed and the conservatives significantly outperformed.
01:31:54.280And I don't think Pierre Polia gets credit for that. I think credit for that goes to Doug Ford.
01:31:58.620I think that that speaks to the fact that the the most successful brand and version of conservative politics in this country is Doug Ford.
01:32:06.440Well, but Max, let me just push back because because Pierre Polia and his and his brand of conservatism got a million more votes than Doug Ford got in his election just a few short months ago.
01:32:19.840Sure, but that's that's the difference between a high turnout election and a low turnout election.
01:32:23.460And, you know, Doug Ford's low turnout election was in part a referendum on his government and how much of a risk it presented.
01:32:30.980And you didn't see the NDP and liberals hurting together in fear of Doug Ford because Doug Ford isn't scary.
01:32:37.240And, you know, he he patched together that sort of NDP conservative switching that that was what drove a lot of the, you know,
01:32:45.380the conservative wins last night in places like Windsor, where they don't usually tend to win seats at the federal level.
01:32:50.280So I just think that's the choice in front of them.
01:32:52.860And, you know, Jamil Giovanni in his attack on Doug Ford, I guess, brought it out into the open.
01:32:57.580But they have to decide, do they want to go down the Doug Ford path or the Pierre Polia path?
01:33:02.740We don't have a lot of time left, but I do want to spend some time on the NDP and where they go from here.
01:33:09.100I was musing before that Jagmeet Singh has taken his long walk in the snow.
01:33:13.280But the question is, should the party be taken out behind the woodshed?
01:33:16.600I mean, are we now at the point where they they they've lost their way to the point that even if they got a new leader,
01:33:23.060they might not be able to rebuild this thing.
01:33:25.140So let's go around the horn. Chris, we'll start with you in just a few short sentences.
01:33:31.240Tell me, do they pick a new leader? And if they do, what are their chances of rebuilding?
01:33:49.840And so, you know, maybe at some point they could beg Wob Canu to take over the helm of the party.
01:33:55.880But at seven seats, I don't think that's happening anytime.
01:33:59.420Yeah. I mean, Warren, the value proposition to bring a guy like Wob Canu in from from the heights of where he is to the struggles of what he would be required to do.
01:34:10.940Yeah. And it's like Doug, all these people saying Doug Ford wanted to be like Doug Ford being leader of the opposition, Wob Canu leading a party that doesn't have party status.
01:34:24.280But the NDP needs to analyze what they did, you know, like saying attacking Polly during both debates.
01:34:31.980Like, Polly was the enemy. The enemy was Mark Carney and, you know, becoming more preoccupied with Gaza than Guelph, you know, and forgetting who they're representing.
01:34:42.660Like, they've made a whole series of mistakes and they are capable.
01:34:46.380There are sensible social Democrats in this country.
01:34:50.940You know, there's a majority social Democratic Party in British Columbia who's the government.
01:34:55.960So it is possible, but they've got a long, hard slog ahead of them and they need to have a leader who's got some vision and is prepared to eat a lot of rubber chicken because that's what's coming.
01:35:06.200Max Fawcett, the last 30 seconds are to you.
01:35:10.080Yeah, I mean, they're not going to get Wob Canu, but they need someone like Wob Canu.
01:35:14.240They need a leader who understands the importance of economic development, of economic growth and who has an economic message.
01:35:20.760And that's never been at something that Jagmeet Singh has even been remotely interested in.
01:35:25.900And so, you know, if they're going to rebuild themselves and find their way back into the conversation, they need to draw on the leaders in the West.
01:35:34.120You know, the David Eby's, the Rachel Notley's, the Wob Canu's, the Roy Romanos.