kinsellacast - January 25, 2026


KINSELLACAST 398: Madness in America, Defiance in Davos with Belanger, Lilley, Sa'd - plus Mitski, Dead Finks, Hannah Lew and New Pornographers


Episode Stats

Length

58 minutes

Words per Minute

117.486

Word Count

6,894

Sentence Count

449

Misogynist Sentences

4

Hate Speech Sentences

7


Summary

It's a Canadian winter weekend, and the snow is falling. But it's not snowing, and there's still plenty of time to listen to some music and talk about what's been going on in the world, including the latest Trump tweet, a Canadian band rocked by a child-porn scandal, and a president who no longer cares about peace.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 It's the KinsellaCast, starring Warren Kinsella.
00:00:14.140 Hey, it's Warren, welcome to the KinsellaCast on a snowy and cold Canadian winter weekend.
00:00:20.120 It's an old-fashioned Canadian winter we're having, pretty much everywhere.
00:00:24.020 And it's been very cold, the snow is about to commence,
00:00:27.240 and before all of that happened, I was able to secure the involvement and the wisdom of Kareem Assad and Brian Lillian and Carl Belanger,
00:00:36.660 talking about events from Davos to Quebec City to Minneapolis to wherever.
00:00:41.760 So, some great discussions about what has been a uniquely shitty week.
00:00:47.120 But I've got some great music. I've got Mitski, I've got Hannah Lou, I've got Dead Finks, all of whom I think I've played before,
00:00:53.500 and New Pornographers, who I've definitely played before.
00:00:56.460 And they have recently had a crisis of their own, a Canadian band.
00:01:01.720 Their drummer, their former drummer, was found in possession of child pornography.
00:01:08.060 And so, I think it was in the NME, they talked about how they dealt with that,
00:01:12.660 and how they moved forward, because they certainly thought about breaking up.
00:01:17.840 And just a fascinating interview, and pretty commendable how they dealt with it.
00:01:23.160 Having grown up in Alberta, as a hard-carrying liberal, I knew how to make friends with conservatives.
00:01:32.040 Because if I didn't, I wouldn't have had any friends.
00:01:36.040 So, when you're a progressive type surrounded by conservative types,
00:01:39.260 you learn pretty quickly that no ideology has a monopoly on common sense.
00:01:43.580 Every political tribe, liberals, conservatives, New Democrats, has their own share of total lunatics.
00:01:50.800 Every tribe has their own contingent of kooks and crooks.
00:01:54.880 But Donald Trump, he's in a category all of his own.
00:01:58.780 On Monday morning, it seems like a long time ago, it's been that kind of a week,
00:02:03.140 many of us spoke to news that Trump had written a text message to Norway's prime minister.
00:02:07.900 I'm not going to read all of it, I'll just read you the key sentence.
00:02:12.460 He said, because he didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize,
00:02:16.060 the world is not secure unless we have complete and total control of Greenland.
00:02:20.780 Thank you, end quote.
00:02:22.920 And he said he's not going to think about peace anymore,
00:02:27.000 because he didn't get the Nobel Prize.
00:02:29.000 So, it was confirmed as authentic by Norway.
00:02:31.980 PBS got the scoop.
00:02:33.100 So, there's the President of the United States
00:02:35.540 saying he no longer needs to think about peace,
00:02:38.900 because he didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize,
00:02:41.160 which is kind of ironic in and of itself, isn't it?
00:02:44.100 So, he's going to push to control Greenland, he said,
00:02:47.960 which, not that these things seem to matter anymore,
00:02:50.900 but it's actually an autonomous territory of the Kingdom of Denmark,
00:02:54.280 not Norway, you know, NATO ally.
00:02:57.980 There's been lots of insanity in Trump's second term.
00:03:01.960 Canada is the 51st state, prosecution of critics,
00:03:05.180 militarization of U.S. cities,
00:03:07.340 assaults on the Federal Reserve,
00:03:08.940 and the killing of Rene Good and Alex Preddy,
00:03:13.080 Alex Preddy this weekend,
00:03:14.860 the execution of those two people.
00:03:17.900 There's been crippling tariffs levied against allies,
00:03:21.040 but none against Russia, of course,
00:03:22.620 and it's been exactly a year since Trump commenced
00:03:25.100 his second spin through the White House,
00:03:27.800 which he's partly torn down and gilded up
00:03:30.780 like a hooker's drawing room.
00:03:33.180 But it feels like a decade, doesn't it?
00:03:36.020 And that's because Trump's first term in office,
00:03:38.280 while totally fucking nuts,
00:03:40.640 was not as bad as the last 12 months have been.
00:03:44.160 During his first term, he did lots of things that were crazy.
00:03:48.340 January 6th, abusing power,
00:03:50.860 obstructing elections,
00:03:51.900 those were the two big ones,
00:03:54.060 and they helped get him impeached twice.
00:03:57.100 But he was surrounded by comparatively sane people
00:03:59.760 in his first term, not this time,
00:04:02.400 not in 2025, 2026.
00:04:04.500 The inmates are running the asylum, full stop.
00:04:08.600 Now that Trump is signaling
00:04:09.880 he's prepared to destroy NATO,
00:04:12.140 and no longer thinks purely of peace
00:04:14.160 because he didn't get a stupid medal
00:04:15.680 named after the guy who invented dynamite,
00:04:17.820 I am more convinced than ever before
00:04:20.700 that he will not complete his term in office.
00:04:23.740 As I predicted at the tail end of 2025,
00:04:26.720 Trump is either going to have a major health crisis
00:04:29.000 because he clearly is not well,
00:04:30.840 or a serious attempt will be made
00:04:32.780 to loosen his grip on power
00:04:34.400 via the 25th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.
00:04:38.080 Either way, he is a goner.
00:04:40.340 And he's fucking crazy.
00:04:43.300 Like, it's not even debatable anymore.
00:04:45.840 What remains a mystery, however,
00:04:48.360 is why so many conservatives,
00:04:49.900 so many Republicans,
00:04:50.980 and so many conservatives up here
00:04:52.480 continue to support him.
00:04:55.040 Privately, all of them tell me they don't.
00:04:58.360 Publicly, they're quite different.
00:05:01.500 Conservatives, small c, large c,
00:05:04.000 play games when the subject matter is Trump.
00:05:06.740 Their three main hedges are well-established.
00:05:09.400 Number one, they tell everybody he's joking.
00:05:11.960 Number two, they tell critics they're deranged.
00:05:14.180 Number three, they go silent.
00:05:15.320 As we all prepare to disembark on a cruise
00:05:18.960 through the Bermuda Triangle
00:05:20.480 that is Trump's second year of his second term,
00:05:23.980 I'm not sure any of those time-tested circumventions
00:05:27.060 are going to work anymore.
00:05:28.960 Donald Trump is now hinting at war
00:05:30.820 because somebody didn't give him a coin.
00:05:32.780 Donald Trump's now executing his own citizens.
00:05:35.800 That is next-level insanity, folks.
00:05:40.660 So, conservatives, and I know,
00:05:43.460 and like quite a few of you, by the way,
00:05:46.360 having grown up around you,
00:05:48.640 you've got a choice to make.
00:05:50.440 Will you continue to label Trump's critics deranged,
00:05:54.020 or will you accept, at long last,
00:05:56.580 the Trump derangement syndrome
00:05:58.560 only refers to one person,
00:06:02.580 him.
00:06:02.880 We'll be right back.
00:06:32.880 We'll be right back.
00:07:02.880 We'll be right back.
00:07:32.880 We'll be right back.
00:08:02.880 We'll be right back.
00:08:32.880 We'll be right back.
00:09:02.880 We'll be right back.
00:09:32.880 We'll be right back.
00:10:02.860 We'll be right back.
00:10:33.360 It's an unprovoked mistake.
00:10:35.380 It was not necessary.
00:10:36.540 I mean, you can understand that he wants to focus on national unity with the threat of separatism, I think.
00:10:43.060 That's understandable.
00:11:13.060 It's absolutely nuts.
00:11:43.040 Because it suits yourself.
00:11:45.040 And let me tell you that the political class in Quebec has had a field day since Thursday with this speech.
00:11:53.160 The PQ leader and the PQ leader and the PQ leader have reconciled.
00:11:57.160 They held a big rally, they held a big rally yesterday, and so it's putting the Federalist camp on the defense at this stage, and it's very early on in the referendum cycle, if you are to believe the poll, that the PQ is going to win the next election.
00:12:14.620 You can't afford somebody, you can't afford somebody, you can't afford somebody, you can't afford those kinds of mistakes.
00:12:26.620 Let me quote to you a little bit of what Carney said, the planes of Abraham mark a battlefield, and also the place where Canada began to make its founding choice of accommodation over assimilation, of partnership over domination, of building together over pulling apart, end quote.
00:12:48.320 So really the criticism that's being made is that he's rewriting history in the way that people like Trump so often do.
00:12:56.120 Is that right?
00:12:56.560 Yeah, for sure, comparisons have been made, and you can see the columns in the Quebec papers this weekend, editorials, what have you.
00:13:06.900 Everybody's unanimous, even in the Gazette, in the Montreal Gazette, they're denouncing what Carney wrote, because it's not helpful.
00:13:14.920 And so, you know, you might mean well, but you have to have your story straight, and you have to have your story straight.
00:13:21.620 Because if not, you end up giving the kind of ammo to the PQ and the block that we saw yesterday in full flight.
00:13:36.360 So I'm not sure who in the PMO talked.
00:13:38.980 I mean, remember last week, I talked to you and said, I hope somebody in the PMO is paying attention, right?
00:13:43.840 And now I'm saddened to say that I wish they hadn't, because they can't act like this if they're going to face this threat seriously.
00:13:54.740 Colonialism is a notion that these days, whether you're in the Middle East or North America, is dangerous and potentially lethal to political futures.
00:14:05.020 And that's immediately what the Prince-Quebecois leader said, which is, it had a colonialist feel to it, Carney's speech.
00:14:15.060 I presume that's why PMO didn't publicize much of it after the fact, because the response was almost immediate, wasn't it?
00:14:23.440 Well, and that's probably why Mark Carney, who was supposed to answer questions from journalists, after the day on Friday, left without notice.
00:14:33.380 The podium was lined up in the building, journalists were waiting, and Mark Carney just took off.
00:14:40.260 Because, let me tell you, the press corps in Quebec City was ready for him.
00:14:44.460 They had tough questions for him, and I think they were not ready to face them, so they left.
00:14:51.860 And, you know, things are so bad in Quebec right now, following this speech,
00:14:56.120 that the day after Carney made this speech, the Quebec government announced that they were removing the crown from the Quebec hold of arms.
00:15:04.740 Wow.
00:15:04.960 That's how strong the symbol was.
00:15:08.100 Wow.
00:15:09.040 Well, he can run, but he's not going to be able to avoid Quebec, particularly with the PTQ government looking certain to return to power.
00:15:18.100 So, I think Carney's going to be paying a price.
00:15:21.940 I mean, you never know in politics, Warren, right?
00:15:23.560 Yeah, of course.
00:15:23.980 You've been around long enough.
00:15:25.220 And there's a leadership race now for the Coalition of Venir-Québec.
00:15:28.160 It looks like this will be a two-way race between Environment Minister Bernard Drinville
00:15:32.820 and Minister of Economy Christine Fréchette.
00:15:36.280 And Drinville is infamous because he was a former Pekist.
00:15:39.820 He's the one who brought the Charter of Values that started the whole movement of banning religious symbols in the public service and teachers and what have you.
00:15:50.100 So, it's a battle royale between somebody who was in it for the economy and somebody who was in it for identity and nationalism.
00:16:00.840 Well, very important development in Quebec this week.
00:16:03.720 And those of us who have been around politics for a while know that you have to tread very carefully when talking about culture and history in the province of Quebec.
00:16:13.960 And Carney didn't do that.
00:16:17.280 Another politician who is stomping all over the landscape and now stomping, in my view, on people's rights in the United States is Donald Trump.
00:16:28.240 So, we've had another terrible death that, I'm not a forensic scientist, but looks to me like an execution.
00:16:35.720 A man, an unarmed man shot in the back while he was on his knees, shot in the back three times when he was going to help a woman.
00:16:43.020 That looked like an execution to me.
00:16:45.440 You know, watching all this stuff from afar, from our position in Canada, what's your take?
00:16:51.100 Do you think that, where is this all heading?
00:16:54.040 Is Trump going to back off in the way that he did to some extent after Davos, or is he going to double down?
00:17:03.840 Well, I hope he doesn't double down, frankly, because we've already had two deaths in the past few weeks in Minneapolis.
00:17:13.420 And these are people that, really, were not a threat, really, when you look at the footage, they were not.
00:17:23.720 But what's disheartening, what's disconcerting is how quickly the administration, the Department of Homeland Security, and all of them, jump to conclusion and defend the actions and don't even take a stand to look into it, to have an investigation, a proper investigation.
00:17:43.720 The rule of law seems to not apply, and G.D. Vance said it.
00:17:49.260 They are above the law, basically, ICE agents, and don't mess with them.
00:17:54.100 And it's, you know, this crop of Republican is a different crop of Republican.
00:18:02.020 Like, I followed American politics for all my career.
00:18:06.380 I disagreed with Ronald Reagan.
00:18:08.560 I certainly disagreed with the Bushes.
00:18:11.120 You know, I'm not necessarily agreed all the time with Democrats like Clinton or Obama.
00:18:15.120 But my thinking at this point is that, well, George Bush wasn't so bad, was he?
00:18:24.200 I think the difference is that the Republicans, at the time, you may disagree with their policy.
00:18:31.220 You may have disagreed with their policy.
00:18:32.520 You may be against.
00:18:33.660 You may have thought they were going too far or going too, you know, too far on the right-wing side of things.
00:18:43.340 But they meant well.
00:18:45.920 Ronald Reagan meant well.
00:18:47.860 That was clear to me.
00:18:49.880 I think George Bush, both father and son, meant well.
00:18:54.200 They were wrong in many instances, but they meant well.
00:18:56.900 I don't think these guys mean well.
00:18:59.380 So what does it mean, final question, for the conservative movement there and here?
00:19:05.400 Mr. Paliyev is just a few days away from his leadership being reviewed in Calgary.
00:19:10.280 And who knows what will happen?
00:19:13.160 I've gotten leadership or a few numbers wrong an awful lot in the past few months.
00:19:18.700 Like, there's now people saying that Donald Trump is single-handedly destroying the conservative movement that seemed to be on the rise everywhere.
00:19:28.760 What's your take?
00:19:29.440 Do you think that Paliyev will continue to be associated with Trump in the minds of Canadian voters?
00:19:35.280 Well, I think in many voters, he will always remain associated.
00:19:41.340 Just the way he handles himself on social media, the way he jumps to conclusion, the way he makes pronouncements that make no sense, the way he threatens to send former Prime Minister Trudeau to jail.
00:19:53.540 I mean, that kind of rhetoric is not helpful to him.
00:19:56.160 So he needs to take stronger stance and quicker stance when Trump says things about Canada.
00:20:05.420 But he's been, you know, slow to react at times.
00:20:09.480 Now, that said, do I think that the solution for the conservative is to have a fifth leader in five elections?
00:20:19.520 I am not sure.
00:20:21.620 So I think the questions that they need to ask themselves, they go well beyond leadership.
00:20:27.440 It goes to what do they believe in?
00:20:30.760 What are their values?
00:20:32.480 And what are they fighting for?
00:20:34.260 That's what it's all about.
00:20:35.240 That is indeed what it's all about.
00:20:38.300 And I guess we'll see what happens in Calgary.
00:20:40.940 Guys like you and I will be watching the numbers and seeing the reaction and the behavior that comes after the fact.
00:20:47.960 But until then, my friend, thank you so much for your insight and your wisdom as always.
00:20:52.380 Have a wonderful day and a wonderful week.
00:20:54.920 Thanks, Wyatt. Talk soon.
00:20:55.860 My hands are cupped around to match.
00:21:19.000 I'm just trying to keep the lights on.
00:21:28.700 But the lighthouse should not be in leak.
00:21:32.820 With the rocks, the lights on point, it's all in shudder waters.
00:21:38.600 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:21:52.560 Hands are cupped around to match.
00:22:11.040 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:22:41.040 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:23:00.040 Hands are cupped around to match.
00:23:02.920 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:23:04.920 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:23:09.920 I didn't see you there.
00:23:12.920 If you wanted quick results.
00:23:16.800 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:23:30.580 I didn't see you there, I didn't see you there.
00:23:35.920 Oh, has it already gone down?
00:23:57.580 Hands are cupped round and match
00:24:01.220 I'm just trying to keep the lights on
00:24:08.040 Hands are cupped round and match
00:24:14.180 I'm just trying to keep the lights on
00:24:21.020 I didn't see the air
00:24:24.880 I didn't see the air
00:24:28.080 I didn't see the air
00:24:31.460 I didn't see the air
00:24:34.780 And we're back. We're back with Brian Lilly, who just wrongly described himself to me as an old man.
00:24:42.320 He's not, but he's sitting by the window with a blanket raptor on his legs, which is kind of an old guy thing to do.
00:24:47.820 Well, it's a lovely Sunday morning in Toronto. I'm looking out at the towers of this city being enveloped in snow because the storm that has hit the United States really hard is starting to hit here.
00:25:07.700 And we're expecting it started out as 10 to 15 centimeters of snow warning and the last time I looked at the Environment Canada warning, which is now up to an orange warning, this color coding is new to me.
00:25:22.420 It could be up to 40 centimeters of snow in certain areas.
00:25:28.800 So I'm going out to go mall walking later today or walk the path or something just so I can get outside and not deal with living on the planet Hoth for all you Star Wars fans.
00:25:43.260 Well, bring your snowshoes because Elisvia Chow will indefinitely find some way to fuck it up.
00:25:49.520 Well, yeah, the subway won't work.
00:25:51.760 Well, they're already starting to shut sections of it down and recreation centers and all that's all started.
00:25:58.140 So, past few days, it seems like 100 years ago at this point, but Mark Carney gave a speech in Davos.
00:26:07.620 What?
00:26:08.320 Yeah, at the World Economic Forum.
00:26:11.440 If he was a minister of Pierre Polyev, he wouldn't have been allowed to go, but he went and gave a speech that has been, without exaggeration, universally well-received, accolades everywhere across the spectrum, right and left.
00:26:26.020 Not for me.
00:26:26.860 Except from one guy.
00:26:28.800 One guy, probably alone in the universe at this point.
00:26:33.880 One Brian Nilley, did not like the speech and was critical of it.
00:26:38.720 Why was Brian Nilley critical of the speech?
00:26:41.440 Well, I'm not alone.
00:26:43.120 And even someone like Michael Kovrig, who said, yes, a very powerful speech, but also said there's a very dark subtext to this.
00:26:52.220 I think he said it was the darkest subtext to a political speech not given by Trump.
00:26:57.660 And that's kind of my issue with it, is he comes from going to China and Qatar and shows up to give a speech about how evil the United States is.
00:27:15.980 You just left Beijing praising President Xi, you just left Qatar praising them.
00:27:24.940 And then you show up and use Vaclav Havel's Power of the Powerless story.
00:27:32.540 I'm not alone in saying, I'm not alone in saying in an incorrect way, to criticize the United States and hegemons, which is very different than Pokemon, which is the only thing that it sounds like.
00:27:48.420 So, you know, I'm fine with him criticizing the United States.
00:27:55.640 I'm not fine with him needlessly poking the bear, which, in my view, is what he was doing.
00:28:05.960 And then I watched the rest of the week and his speech in Quebec City, where he talked about land soaked in blood at the Plains of Abraham.
00:28:14.840 Well, no, we'll talk about that in a second.
00:28:16.960 He was very nationalist.
00:28:18.520 But by the end of the week, what did it look like?
00:28:21.180 But let's talk about your take.
00:28:23.800 I mean, isn't his response would be, Brian, I'm stating the fucking obvious, right?
00:28:30.060 Like sucking up to Trump.
00:28:31.800 I, of all people, now know that doesn't work.
00:28:34.880 And I'm not saying this is a transition.
00:28:36.900 I'm saying it's a rupture, quote unquote.
00:28:38.940 And I'm just acknowledging the obvious.
00:28:40.780 Why should I be criticized for acknowledging the obvious?
00:28:44.840 Well, he's been using terms like rupture since the election campaign last year.
00:28:52.540 And yet when he's next to Donald Trump, he's fawning.
00:28:57.780 And then when he's not next to Donald Trump, he takes shots at him.
00:29:03.540 It's a very cowardly way to do things.
00:29:06.760 If you're going to be fawning and look at his two White House visits, look at his, you know, standing with Trump.
00:29:17.060 Or, you know, Gavin Newsom might say he has knee pads on.
00:29:22.920 It can an ask us.
00:29:24.300 Or, you know, his last minute trip to Davos that cost us almost a million dollars to go to his peace summit in Egypt.
00:29:35.460 But, he's fawning over Trump when he's next to him.
00:29:40.700 And then when he's not next to him, he's always taking shots at the guy.
00:29:46.620 He's like, you're not as brave as you think you are.
00:29:49.740 But, if you're going to be fawning over him when you're there, when he's there, and then be the big brave boy and put on your big boy pants when he's not in the room, like, no, that's not being brave.
00:30:07.340 But, that's fair enough, and, you know, an illustration of your point is Dominic LeBlanc, as Post Media is reporting this morning, is already walking back some of the criticism of the United States by Trump, either implicit or explicit criticism, and saying, well, you know, that's not quite what we mean, and so on.
00:30:26.620 So, you're right in that regard, but, I mean, it is reality, and it is right, it is a fair criticism to say that Carney's actions, like so many politicians, don't, you know, equal his words.
00:30:40.540 His rhetoric is not, you know, representative of his action.
00:30:44.980 But, it seems to me like the Canadian government and the Europeans have decided, well, you know what, we can't change this guy's behavior.
00:30:55.120 We've got to change our approach.
00:30:58.440 We've got to take a different approach to the United States and the world, or we're going to get fucked.
00:31:04.520 Well, we're going to get fucked no matter what, I guess, but are we going to do it with China or with the United States?
00:31:14.360 And, Carney is at least making it sound like we prefer China.
00:31:20.500 Yeah, I mean, he stood in Beijing, and it was the Canadian reporter for the New York Times who asked him,
00:31:28.300 Who's excellent, by the way.
00:31:30.060 Is China a more reliable and predictable partner than the United States?
00:31:36.620 And he said yes.
00:31:38.380 And two of his ministers had said yes in the days leading up to that.
00:31:42.080 Well, there is a predictability of dictatorships, isn't there?
00:31:47.660 Sure.
00:31:48.600 Ask Michael Kovrig, who I mentioned earlier.
00:31:51.600 How predictable is China?
00:31:52.880 They're going to kidnap you.
00:31:55.280 But, I will actually, I've been asked to go to China.
00:31:58.640 I will not go to China because I believe I will not come back.
00:32:03.580 Yeah, you could be staying for a while.
00:32:04.920 I was just in the United States twice in the last couple of, in the last 30 days, I've been down to the States twice.
00:32:13.220 And I'll be going again soon.
00:32:15.040 I have no fear of not coming back from the U.S.
00:32:17.840 I have a fear, I will not go to Cuba, and I will not go to China.
00:32:21.400 Because I've been critical of their governments, and they will arrest me.
00:32:25.040 I'm critical of the U.S. government.
00:32:27.440 They will not arrest me.
00:32:29.620 Yeah, but there's some people who aren't going now because they fear being arrested.
00:32:32.880 I mean, I'm like you, I'm a white male.
00:32:35.280 I'm unlikely to be targeted by anybody there.
00:32:38.100 It's just, you know, it's a vote of conscience or a vote of principle.
00:32:42.040 Like, for me, I'm like, fuck it.
00:32:43.440 I'm not going to give them my money.
00:32:45.300 I'll spend my money somewhere else.
00:32:47.300 It's like a capitalist choice.
00:32:49.220 Yeah, and that's fine.
00:32:51.000 I know people making that choice.
00:32:52.600 But, you know, as you know, my wife's family has a place in California.
00:32:56.880 So, you know, usually go there over Christmas.
00:33:00.060 I'm not going to sell the place because some guy's president for four years.
00:33:05.620 And, you know, I went down to Washington because, hey, how do you figure out what's going on with the U.S.?
00:33:11.060 You have to go talk to them.
00:33:12.800 Yeah.
00:33:12.920 It's like why I interviewed the Alberta separatist last Tuesday.
00:33:20.440 You know, Keith Wilson's a smart guy.
00:33:22.700 We met in person, had a big debate about Alberta separatism.
00:33:25.820 I said, okay, well, you know, got to talk to you.
00:33:29.000 Got to put what you're saying out there.
00:33:31.420 You've got to actually talk to people.
00:33:33.700 So let's talk about Alberta.
00:33:36.260 Let's talk about Alberta.
00:33:37.420 Because you are heading to Alberta.
00:33:41.420 Most likely.
00:33:42.660 Most likely.
00:33:43.040 Oh, you haven't decided yet.
00:33:43.600 Most likely.
00:33:44.300 Okay.
00:33:44.680 Well, because a lot of people are going to be very, very interested in what you have to say in your analysis of what transpires in Calgary,
00:33:53.260 which is the convention of the Conservative Party of Canada, where the leadership of one Pierre Polyev is being subjected to review a vote.
00:34:03.160 And so you and I have felt that he's going to land somewhere between 70 and 80.
00:34:07.460 I was talking to a couple members of his caucus this weekend.
00:34:10.780 They think he's going to be above 80.
00:34:12.880 What's the latest you've heard?
00:34:14.360 What's your prognostication at this point?
00:34:16.480 So I was talking with Tasha Kerrigan and Stuart Thompson, both with the National Post, for the Full Comment podcast.
00:34:24.000 We've recorded on Friday for an episode that comes out Monday.
00:34:28.300 And they were both saying, oh, Tasha was saying he has to be above 80.
00:34:33.140 And anything below 80, he's in trouble.
00:34:35.840 And I said, no, like anything above 70 is fine.
00:34:40.820 If he's below that, he's in trouble.
00:34:42.860 But now I'm not sure he'll get there.
00:34:46.480 So it'll be interesting.
00:34:49.420 You know.
00:34:50.540 So you're starting, just to clarify, so you're starting, like me, to have some doubts about 70%, getting above 70?
00:35:00.220 Yeah, like if I was, if I had to put money down on it and I could lose the money, then I'd say he's probably going to get over 70.
00:35:11.160 But I'm not absolutely sure now.
00:35:14.620 And I don't know why.
00:35:16.120 No, I've had, it's so funny you say that.
00:35:18.560 I've had the same reaction.
00:35:19.860 I'm like, you know, the only thing I learned in law school is I asked myself the question, what if I'm wrong?
00:35:24.680 And I was like, man, you know, the numbers just don't improve.
00:35:28.880 I think he, you know, I said to one of his caucus members last night, I thought his response to Carney in Davos was excellent.
00:35:37.040 But it was measured, he didn't swim against the tide, like, you know, guys like you and I, well, no, you, but you guys like you, we're paid to do that.
00:35:45.580 We're supposed to do that.
00:35:46.460 We're not supposed to do predictable things or run with the pack.
00:35:49.760 And so it was kind of courageous, which you did, quite frankly.
00:35:53.020 I disagreed with you, but it was courageous.
00:35:56.880 But the, you know, Carney Poliev seems to be trying to do better, trying to change his ways.
00:36:05.380 Because the question is whether the conservative base is ready to give him credit for that.
00:36:14.520 And, you know, folks have said to me, well, you know, it's in Calgary.
00:36:20.900 And so, therefore, he saved some of the grumpiest conservatives that I've talked to about Pierre are from Calgary, are from Alberta.
00:36:34.060 Yeah.
00:36:34.200 So, there's going to be a Quebec delegation there that's sizable.
00:36:40.740 There's going to be grumpy Calgarians.
00:36:46.780 You know, it does make it more interesting and does lead me to want to go.
00:36:55.560 So.
00:36:56.460 Well, you've got to go.
00:36:57.320 And I just have one piece of advice.
00:36:59.820 You have to go to Michael's Pizza on 10th Avenue.
00:37:04.200 At First Street, Southwest, right behind the Palliser for the greatest pizza in the world.
00:37:09.360 Tell them I sent you.
00:37:10.840 Right behind the Palliser?
00:37:12.120 Right behind the Palliser.
00:37:13.680 It's a little dodgy area.
00:37:15.540 Well, actually, the Steve Fonio lived in that building for many years.
00:37:19.980 Poor old Steve Fonio.
00:37:21.000 God bless him.
00:37:21.640 And, but man, it's the best fucking pizza in the world.
00:37:25.660 It is the best.
00:37:28.200 Chloe's coming up to say hi.
00:37:29.740 She's trying to find me.
00:37:30.660 She's getting onto the old man.
00:37:33.360 Completing the picture of the old guy in the window with his blanket.
00:37:36.160 And, and, and, and the dog on his lap as he looks at the snow out there.
00:37:41.320 Um, I, I, okay.
00:37:42.980 I got to give you a recommendation then.
00:37:44.940 All right.
00:37:45.240 And that is, um, read Niall Ferguson's piece in the free press.
00:37:51.440 Okay.
00:37:51.880 Uh, on he, his take on Davos.
00:37:57.380 And he says Trump won Davos, not the Canadians and the Europeans.
00:38:00.740 And then explains why.
00:38:02.560 Okay.
00:38:03.460 I'll check it out.
00:38:04.100 And it's an interesting take.
00:38:05.400 You know, Ferguson is a very interesting guy.
00:38:09.540 Um, different take on the world.
00:38:11.760 Of course, Harvard prof, Stanford prof, uh, and very smart guy.
00:38:16.240 And he has a, a very different view of what, what went down in Davos.
00:38:20.400 And he's been going for years.
00:38:22.360 And, uh, you can also listen to him on Scott, uh, Scott Calloway's, uh, podcast.
00:38:28.120 Um, you know, Scott's a big progressive Democrat and had him on and they have very different
00:38:35.400 views on what went down in Davos, but they were both there.
00:38:38.120 Okay.
00:38:38.860 So we'll check it out.
00:38:39.840 Well, I encourage everybody, encourage everybody to check out Brian Lilly's takes on the prime
00:38:44.920 minister's comments in Davos.
00:38:46.860 And, and, and my take on, on Trump over the last few days is stop overreacting Canadians.
00:38:54.020 That's my latest column.
00:38:55.260 Stop overreacting emotionally to everything he says.
00:38:58.900 Cause he craves the chaos.
00:39:00.680 He thrives on the chaos and you just hurting yourself and giving yourself ulcers and, and
00:39:08.380 giving him what he wants.
00:39:09.260 So, like, relax.
00:39:12.840 Well, he is kind of, Frankie says relax.
00:39:15.080 He is kind of killing people in the streets, but we can talk about that another day.
00:39:18.640 My friend, thank you so much.
00:39:20.520 Have a great day and a great week and all the best to Chloe Nestle on your lap.
00:39:24.020 Talk to you.
00:39:25.700 Where did I leave?
00:39:43.820 Where did I go?
00:39:47.720 Where did I go?
00:39:51.120 Where did I go?
00:39:52.680 A woman always on the street called me a ditch
00:39:59.400 A ditch on my block, she said
00:40:02.620 I just want my mind to be a clear glass
00:40:06.600 Clear glass with nothing in my head
00:40:09.260 I keep thinking surely somebody will save me
00:40:13.900 At every turn I learn that no one will
00:40:17.100 I just want my mind to be a clear glass
00:40:21.060 Clear glass with nothing still
00:40:23.700 Oh, where did I leave?
00:40:27.860 Where did I go?
00:40:31.560 Where did I go?
00:40:35.100 Where did it go?
00:40:38.940 Where's my phone?
00:40:42.560 Where's my phone?
00:40:51.060 If that is like you punched a hole into tomorrow
00:40:55.020 I would sit for hold on, long
00:40:58.520 I'll stay on until my mind is like a clear glass
00:41:02.540 Clear glass with nothing going on
00:41:05.540 We're like a bug floating in the melted ember
00:41:09.780 Oh, there's such an elephant in the gold
00:41:13.380 I just want to tell my mind is like a clear glass
00:41:17.040 Clear glass melted in the gold
00:41:19.380 Clear glass melted in the gold
00:41:23.300 Greater glass samen
00:41:31.860 Clear glass or rock
00:41:35.400 Clear glass?
00:41:38.080 Clear glass
00:41:39.980 clear glass
00:41:43.840 Clear glass
00:41:45.800 Clear glass
00:41:47.120 Clear glass
00:41:48.200 Clear glass
00:41:49.860 Clear glass
00:41:51.140 Bye-bye.
00:42:21.140 And we're back. We're back with my friend Karima Saad, who's back from Israel.
00:42:35.440 We'll talk about that in a minute.
00:42:36.700 But Karima, there's been another terrible event in Minneapolis where a border patrol agent,
00:42:44.020 not quite sure where the border is running through Minneapolis, but apparently it does now,
00:42:48.180 shot in the back three times a man who was on his knees and had been disarmed.
00:42:58.360 And a lot of people, including Kamala Harris and Hillary Clinton and many others,
00:43:05.100 and Tim Wolfe are calling it execution, calling it a murder.
00:43:08.760 And I wanted to get your take on it because you're somebody who pays a lot of attention to protests
00:43:16.380 and confrontations between different sides and interaction with police.
00:43:21.040 Have you had a chance to take a look at it and form an opinion?
00:43:23.680 Yeah, I've reviewed some of the footage.
00:43:27.800 I've reviewed some of the statements that have been made publicly, both by, you know,
00:43:32.960 the Trump administration and leaders within Minnesota and kind of the general analysis of it,
00:43:43.420 a horrific incident.
00:43:44.740 I think that that should be easy to say unequivocally.
00:43:51.200 You know, this is violence on the streets that is almost, is it ushering in a civil war?
00:43:59.740 Are they already there?
00:44:01.260 Is this the precursor?
00:44:03.480 It's certainly unrest and very disturbing to see.
00:44:08.700 What I will say is having attended countless protests and being sort of either recording
00:44:19.640 or at the center of a number of incidents that become controversial, thankfully none of them fatal,
00:44:25.980 it's not so easy.
00:44:28.080 It's not so easy, you know, to be sort of an armchair quarterback and parse through the scenes
00:44:36.020 and kind of know what was happening, right?
00:44:38.480 Even with footage, even with alternate vantage points, the one thing that I can reliably say
00:44:44.880 is it's very difficult to rely on anything in assessing these opinions.
00:44:50.680 And that's not maybe particularly helpful, but that is my experience.
00:44:55.220 So what does all of this mean?
00:44:58.220 You know, the facts I think that are agreed upon are that this individual was recording ICE agents,
00:45:06.920 that he was accompanied by someone who, it sounds like he was trying to help,
00:45:14.080 that he had a gun with him, and that he was then disarmed and shot.
00:45:22.800 Is this sort of a summary style execution where just by virtue of having a gun,
00:45:28.640 he was deemed a justifiable target and eliminated?
00:45:33.840 Is it that in the description provided by Christy Noem,
00:45:41.260 that one seems to accord the least with what's visible in clips, right?
00:45:47.260 It didn't look like he was violently attacking anyone.
00:45:49.680 But, you know, what is the thought process in bringing a gun to this kind of demonstration
00:45:57.180 and to being in a position where you could be perceived as obstructing officers?
00:46:02.620 I think that protesters are out of touch with the degree to which they are in danger.
00:46:08.980 And, you know, that reality needs to sink in real quick,
00:46:16.820 unless they are okay with taking these kinds of losses.
00:46:22.600 And, you know, that's my take on it.
00:46:25.840 So let's talk about those two things you touched upon.
00:46:28.820 Number one, eyewitness testimony or eyewitness statements or evidence.
00:46:35.500 I've been a cop reporter.
00:46:36.920 I, too, have been a litigator like you and know that eyewitness testimony is among the most unreliable.
00:46:47.460 So, you know, from your perspective, somebody who pays attention to hundreds,
00:46:52.400 maybe thousands of protests, you know that people in good faith can have very different perspectives on things,
00:46:59.400 number one.
00:47:00.180 And number two, the potential for lethality.
00:47:03.360 And you and I have talked about this in the past, that these things can get very dangerous very quickly.
00:47:10.700 If you can touch on both of those, just reliability of what people are seeing,
00:47:15.580 what they think they're seeing with their own eyes,
00:47:17.360 but also how these things are dangerous and seem to become more dangerous with each passing day.
00:47:24.020 Okay, so lots to unpack there.
00:47:28.220 As far as eyewitness goes, yes, very unreliable form of testimony, particularly where there are heightened emotions,
00:47:37.680 there's tension, there's a lot going on simultaneously.
00:47:42.440 You know, just anecdotally, I took a course in law school on wrongful convictions.
00:47:47.040 And in one of the course sessions, the professor had arranged for someone to come run into the classroom
00:47:55.340 and make a little bit of a spectacle and run back out.
00:47:58.500 And then we were all tasked with describing what had happened, what were they wearing, what did they look like?
00:48:04.200 And we did a really bad job.
00:48:06.440 And everyone was, I think, honest in their sort of expression and what they thought they saw.
00:48:13.940 But that doesn't necessarily match with reality.
00:48:19.160 And so there's not zero value in eyewitness testimony, but it's easily compromised,
00:48:25.200 particularly when people are stressed or scared or have, you know, an idea coming into something of, you know,
00:48:34.400 what the existing narrative is, right?
00:48:36.480 Good guys versus bad guys.
00:48:38.340 So that's the issue with relying solely on what people see, like the way, you know, you could triangulate.
00:48:47.260 And ideally, there is objective evidence to rely on as well.
00:48:51.480 In this case, there's video, right?
00:48:53.020 So that makes it a little bit easier.
00:48:57.260 Cops, danger, bloodshed, potential for that.
00:49:01.880 You've covered so many of these things and all of us, senior footage.
00:49:06.260 And the stuff, obviously, that attracts the greatest number of eyeballs that you do are the things where there's violence and people thrown to the ground,
00:49:14.380 you know, people spitting on your videographer.
00:49:16.840 You mentioned it in my new book.
00:49:20.860 You know, those things have always happened, I guess, but they seem to be happening with more frequency now to me.
00:49:28.160 Am I right or am I wrong?
00:49:29.180 I think you're right.
00:49:31.660 That's my perception, at least.
00:49:33.480 Again, we're very fortunate that, like, I at least haven't seen anything fatal or even any serious injuries arising from interactions between cops and protesters.
00:49:45.620 But protesters need to understand that there is a very high degree of deference afforded to police, right?
00:49:55.160 They're in uniform.
00:49:56.440 They already have the advantage of their gun and their badge and all sorts of presumptions that work in their favor.
00:50:04.360 And, you know, they rightly or wrongly, and I would say wrongly, probably, but they have more control over sort of the narrative that gets put out, right?
00:50:15.960 Like a police press release that is going to be an initial sort of like an early narrative setter, right?
00:50:25.880 So all of these things are working in favor of police.
00:50:29.740 And, you know, even in a situation where the police are wrong, that's typically dealt with after the fact, right?
00:50:37.980 After the arrest, not in the heat of the moment.
00:50:41.000 And so if protesters, and particularly protesters who are going in with very anti-police ideas, who don't consider the police to be legitimate or think that it's such a deeply corrupted institution that, you know, we shouldn't have to respect it.
00:51:01.940 Those are all opinions that it's fair to hold, but will have real life consequences if you start pushing back against police physically and sometimes even verbally, right?
00:51:16.900 And it's the police aren't meant to be judge, jury, executioner on the street.
00:51:22.760 But if put before a court and an officer says, well, I was scared, I was being swarmed, this person had a gun, I didn't know what was going to happen next.
00:51:36.280 Those are all things that will be mitigating factors.
00:51:41.040 And again, that's not to say that this particular instance, the most recent death will, I don't know what the outcome will be one way or another.
00:51:50.900 But if I'm representing the police, those are all factors that I'm going to emphasize.
00:51:58.200 Absolutely.
00:51:59.000 So final question, you're back from Israel and you saw all kinds of places and things, some happy, some sad.
00:52:08.760 Wanted to just get your impression of what you, you were there as I have been with the Exigent Group and Larry Marr.
00:52:16.540 And it's always fascinating and they don't interfere with what you and I write or broadcast.
00:52:21.860 They don't censor it.
00:52:22.960 They don't want to see it in advance.
00:52:24.600 They just let us write and say what we want.
00:52:27.640 So what is your early take as a journalist and as a broadcaster who went and saw Israel?
00:52:34.440 I'm still processing, but I, you know, overall was exposed to sites and viewpoints that I don't think I otherwise would have received.
00:52:51.280 So I'm grateful for that, you know, and apart from what was part of the scheduled tour and kind of the meetings that were curated for us, there was also a little bit of opportunity to go outside of that and to speak with just casually with Israeli citizens.
00:53:15.460 And so I took advantage of that as well, you know, it, I guess it ties into what we were just talking about as far as being on the ground, reality on the ground and how kind of, you know, perspective is shaped, obviously, by what you see and experience, but also what you don't see and what you don't hear.
00:53:40.680 So I'm parsing through all of those thoughts and just kind of longing for a world in which, you know, it wasn't so contentious or controversial or, you know, it was just, we were truly able to be in peace because from the majority of people that we heard from and that I spoke with, that was the prevailing sentiment.
00:54:08.380 You know, we would really just like peace, to live in peace.
00:54:12.660 And I think that that's how people feel south of the border as well.
00:54:16.720 I'm confident that that's how many Canadians feel as well.
00:54:20.380 And it's just now we have these differing ideas of what does that peace mean and how do we achieve it?
00:54:25.960 And I'm no closer to answering any of that, but I, again, I'm, I'm grateful for sort of all of the information that I can take in to form my own thoughts and opinions.
00:54:39.500 Well, I am grateful for your thoughts and your opinions and your fairness and your sense of balance this week and every week.
00:54:46.880 So welcome back.
00:54:47.920 Look forward to hearing more when you've had time to process your thoughts, what you've seen and what you heard in Israel.
00:54:53.800 And in the meantime, thank you so much.
00:54:56.160 When confusion holds the line, you're forced to sight.
00:55:20.720 Thank you so much.
00:55:50.720 Thank you.
00:56:20.720 Thank you.
00:56:22.720 Thank you.
00:56:50.720 Thank you.
00:56:52.720 Thank you.
00:56:53.720 Thank you.
00:56:54.720 Thank you.
00:57:20.720 Thank you.
00:57:22.720 Thank you.
00:57:50.720 Thank you.
00:57:51.720 Thank you.
00:57:52.720 Thank you.
00:57:53.720 Thank you.
00:57:54.720 Thank you.
00:57:56.720 Thank you.
00:57:57.720 Thank you.
00:57:58.720 Thank you.
00:57:59.720 Thank you.
00:58:20.720 And I don't mind
00:58:23.780 I'm safe and falling
00:58:27.340 Waiting for the sun to go down
00:58:32.400 I'm safe and falling
00:58:35.360 Waiting for the sun to go down