KINSELLACAST 399： Amit Segal on Iran, Lilley and Belanger on Poilievre, Sa'd on Minneapolis, CKNW and more - Springsteen, NOFX, Yeah Yeah Yeahs, Civic, Sean Solomon
This week on The KinsellaCast, Warren talks about protest culture in the Twin Cities, NoFX re-releases a song about the city, and more. Episode 400 is out now on all streaming platforms.
00:25:09.960And we're back. We're back with Brian Lilly.
00:25:11.780He's back from Calgary, from the conservative convention, where Pierre Poliev got 87% approval. He got a green light to continue as leader. So Brian, just generally, how was it? What was the mood in Calgary?
00:25:26.260It was more positive than I expected. Poliev did even better than I expected. You and I both said if he gets between 70 and 80, he's fine.
00:25:34.500A lot of people were saying, well, Harper got 84, he's got to at least get that. Like, do you need Saddam Hussein numbers where everyone has the same ink on their finger and the dear leader wins with 99%? No.
00:25:49.720But I'll tell you an interesting factoid that they probably don't want me to know, but I do know because I just talk to people constantly and people tell you stuff when you talk to them, is that there was an advanced voting on Friday morning and early afternoon.
00:26:08.460It was called religious observance voting because there were some observant Jews there, but you didn't have to be Jewish to do the advanced voting, but it was labeled on the door religious advanced voting.
00:26:19.720And so he went in, or you could go in and just declare, yeah, I want an advanced vote.
00:26:25.480I didn't get what the winning percentage was in that versus the regular voting, but it was higher in the regular voting, which happened after the speech.
00:26:37.000And Gary Keller, who makes an appearance in my full comment podcast tomorrow, Steve Outhouse and MPs and a whole pile of people.
00:26:44.820Gary Keller said he, the speech didn't move him because he's heard it all before and immersed in this, but he's standing in line, waiting to vote.
00:26:53.680And he's listening to the people around him.
00:26:55.380And he said, I think this is going to move some people 87.4% higher than what a lot of people thought the, uh, the later voting had a higher margin of victory than the advanced voting.
00:27:08.340Hmm. So why did it happen? What did, what did Polly Eve and his team do to achieve such a big result?
00:27:15.360Well, you know, part of what this is about, it's organizing, making sure you get the right delegates, uh, elected at the local level and that you're getting the right people up.
00:27:23.980But also his base loves him. They absolutely love him. And, um, he's got to figure out how to get that elusive swing voter back.
00:27:34.840It's either getting new low propensity voters to show up or it's winning back some of the, um, uh, the people that lent their vote to Carney that would normally vote conservative.
00:27:47.220And, um, you know, combination of the two talk to Steve outhouse about that. Um, and, um,
00:27:54.340Well, let's talk about that. I've got a column, but that in our paper today and you, cause you've put your finger on the issue.
00:28:00.560I think, you know, you've got close to 80% of card carrying or self-identifying conservatives, love the guy, want them to stay.
00:28:09.360Right. And then Leger, our pollster found at the same time, nearly as many, you know, liberal and new Democrat and block voters want them gone.
00:28:19.260Um, and he, he's just not as popular with Canadians as he is with Canadian conservatives. How does he turn that around?
00:28:26.980Um, before I tell you that, let me just remind you, uh, voters are fickle. Polls can change.
00:39:26.980I agree with everything you say, but I've got a column in the post-media this morning saying, you know, there's no question, as you say, the Conservative Party base is absolutely loyal to him.
00:39:57.800It's like they're caught in a trap, right?
00:39:59.680I mean, it's like when he came out at the end of last year saying that the RCMP was basically a complacent police and that Justin Trudeau and some liberals should have done jail time because of the SNC-Lavalin and the Aga Khan scandal.
00:40:18.720I mean, that was red meat for the base.
00:40:21.480And the base reacted by saying, yeah, it's about time a leader says the real things, you know?
00:40:26.520But the problem is that most people say, well, what do you mean?
00:40:29.020You want to put the former prime minister in prison when all he got is a slap on the wrist from the ethics commissioner?
00:40:34.300And that's the kind of stuff that reminds them of Trump.
00:40:39.880That's the kind of stuff that Donald Trump does.
00:40:44.420And they're worried that Poilievre will act just like Trump.
00:40:49.160Because in many ways, when he speaks, when he makes those kinds of pronouncements, his tactics, his tone reminds Canadians of Donald Trump.
00:40:59.760Yeah, just like when Nicolas Maduro got forcibly removed from power by Trump, Poilievre took about three seconds to issue a tweet congratulating President Trump.
00:41:12.700It's the kind of stuff that hurts him.
00:41:14.540And so that's why, you know, my rule in politics is how a candidate is by the time he or she reaches the age of 40.
00:41:34.040Can they change the fundamentals of the guy?
00:41:37.020You know, you led an NDP leader to the most successful result in the history of the New Democratic Party.
00:41:44.120And I think you guys did that by letting Jack Layton be himself instead of trying to make him into something else.
00:41:51.280Well, we did not try to transform him, but we took what was his assets and we helped him grow into the role and to the politician that he became.
00:42:05.560Because when he arrived on the Hill, I mean, he was, for all purposes, a guy who was, his reflexes were municipal, right?
00:42:14.080He was a former city councillor, president of the Canadian Federation of Municipalities.
00:42:20.220So his reflexes were not, you know, they were not right.
00:43:39.380But just an absolutely sordid bunch of Epstein emails and documents and photographs were released this week, belatedly by the U.S. Justice Department.
00:44:16.680Like, how this relates to changing a political leader.
00:44:20.900How has Trump been able to survive in these extreme circumstances where these terrible things are coming out and people are just shrugging?
00:44:57.720So, it's the extreme polarization of the United States has reached a point where the worst of my guys is still better than the best of your guys.
00:45:08.240And it didn't used to be like that, but that's where things are at.
00:45:13.200Or so, you know, at least it feels that way.
00:45:17.380However, I mean, there was a, there's a Senate seat in Texas that flipped.
00:45:51.700And if, if, if, if they, they are not fed up with what's happening, if they're, if they're not willing to push him out, there is very little that others can do.
00:46:02.560It's all about the voters and the midterm that are coming up in November, that's going to be the real test.
00:46:08.220There are, there, there, there will be shockwaves because of that seat flipping.
00:46:12.620Uh, and Republicans will start, I think, um, uh, they're going to start thinking about what's next because they are, uh, Trump right now is bringing down that brand, uh, in a way that he didn't do in the first term.
00:51:58.280This is a way that it can engage people who, again, may have already been engaged or may have been more hands-off, but that's what celebrity does.
00:52:10.580It draws eyeballs and can pull heartstrings.
00:53:08.160I think, you know, it depends on who the celebrity is and the nature of the endorsement and how well it's done.
00:53:16.000Because the worst thing, I think, that could happen is the sense of support being astroturfed.
00:53:24.320And, you know, this isn't really organic and the celebrities are playing some sort of part and it's all performative, which celebrity by nature is performative.
00:53:34.240But if that kind of, that illusion is shattered and it really feels that this is inauthentic, I think it can have the opposite as intended effect.
00:54:17.320You know, I, myself, like I don't know that, you can't put too much stock into it, but it is, to the extent that protests are an element of culture and pop culture, it's noteworthy at the very least.
00:54:39.360Well, Israel, that you just returned from, I participated in a protest there against the Netanyahu government, walking around the headquarters IDF on King Saul Street.
00:54:51.520And what amazed me is not that taking place, but how the world didn't seem to be noticing at all.
00:54:58.840There were many people in Israel who object to the government there and objected to the war.
00:55:03.320In the case of what's unfolding in the United States, not exclusively in Minneapolis, it's happening in Maine and other places, but mainly in Minneapolis.
00:57:09.000If there's one thing I can say with confidence or certainty, it's that things are very rarely just as they appear.
00:57:16.560Well, maybe that'll be my final question for you, because, as you know, we've got our documentary called The Campaign coming out, and you're a big part of that, talking about that issue.
00:57:28.480And also my book, The Hidden Hand, which is starting to come out this month in e-book form, and you're part of that as well, is authenticity.
00:57:35.880The authenticity of these protests and these events and these stagings, however you want to describe them, it really is critically important that they look organic and spontaneous and populist, isn't it?
00:57:51.560Because the moment a suggestion is made by a guy like me that it's organized and stage managed, it loses a lot of its currency, doesn't it?
00:58:03.000And that's kind of maybe part of our romanticization of protests, because there is organizing to anything that is successful.
00:58:15.420I don't know that I can think of any real examples where just spontaneously people have all coalesced in perfect order and achieved the goal that they are looking to accomplish.
00:58:30.600So there's always going to be a degree of organization, the question is, you know, who is involved to what end, and kind of what's the, people can be involved in something and feel very sincerely about it, but, you know, is there a gap between the lead organizers, the ones who are actually pulling the string, so to speak, and who's on the ground?
00:59:01.680My friend, thank you so much for your insight, as usual, into what's happening out there in the world, and hopefully, can you come back next week?
00:59:11.620We've got the 400th edition of the KinsellaCast next week, so hopefully you can be there.
01:02:37.320We are starting, though, with the latest, with the continued reaction to our Prime Minister's speech when he spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
01:02:52.500If you've seen the speech, then you know some of the comments he made, the points he made, the response to it, a rare standing ovation.
01:03:00.800When he concluded after making comments, including, let me be direct, we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition.
01:03:07.240He talked about the fact, he said, you cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination.
01:03:17.020Just a couple of quotes from that speech.
01:03:20.020Well, fast forward to just within the last 24 hours or so, we've heard from the U.S. Treasury Secretary.
01:03:30.040Scott Bessent went on Hannity on Fox News and said that after that speech, the Prime Minister actually called the U.S. president and walked things back.
01:03:41.180Let's talk about the Prime Minister, or if you prefer, Governor of Canada, and him threatening to, you know, break economic alliances with the U.S., go with China.
01:03:51.560The president has threatened 100 percent tariff.