kinsellacast - February 22, 2026


KINSELLACAST 402: Hockey heartache, Trump tariff turmoil with Lilley, Belanger and Bad Religion!


Episode Stats

Length

34 minutes

Words per Minute

143.50418

Word Count

5,006

Sentence Count

495


Summary


Transcript

00:00:00.000 It's the KinsellaCast, starring Warren Kinsella.
00:00:19.600 Hey, it's Warren. Welcome to the KinsellaCast.
00:00:22.600 And I apologize for the lateness of the KinsellaCast.
00:00:26.420 But we were in Montreal.
00:00:27.780 We went to Montreal to just go to Montreal.
00:00:33.140 So we got there on Friday and went to my parents' grave spot and tended that a bit.
00:00:43.080 And went to Snowden Deli and ate too much food.
00:00:48.860 And what did we do after that?
00:00:51.800 And then we went to the Wolf and Something Bar.
00:00:57.120 It's named after two early mayors of Montreal.
00:01:02.360 One of whom, or both of whom, were charged with treason.
00:01:05.060 I think it's basically in that era.
00:01:07.540 You can't be a mayor unless you were charged with treason.
00:01:10.100 And then the next day, we went to Atwater Market.
00:01:15.540 And it is just awesome and epic, that place.
00:01:18.980 And I had the best chocolate eclair I've ever had in my life.
00:01:22.720 Okay, I had two of them, not just one.
00:01:25.500 And what did we do after that?
00:01:28.080 Well, then I caught up with my friend Jay Bentley.
00:01:31.680 So Jay Bentley, if the name is familiar to you, and it should be, is the bassist for Bad Religion.
00:01:40.700 And Bad Religion is one of the best bands in the world, in my opinion.
00:01:47.080 And I've seen them a million times.
00:01:50.840 And I had planned to see them in Peterborough last week.
00:01:54.240 But the gig got canceled.
00:01:56.040 Couldn't figure out why.
00:01:56.920 Apparently, it was because the main act, the offspring, who I'm no big fan of,
00:02:01.700 their equipment weighed too much.
00:02:03.200 And there was too much snow on the roof.
00:02:04.440 And they were worried the snow would collapse the building.
00:02:07.920 So they went to Oshawa instead.
00:02:09.860 And I didn't feel like going to Oshawa.
00:02:11.320 So to hell with it.
00:02:12.200 And then there's Bad Religion Montreal.
00:02:16.100 There's me.
00:02:16.780 So I got in touch with Jay.
00:02:18.160 And we got together.
00:02:19.320 And then he got us in some great seats to see his band.
00:02:24.820 And then Offspring.
00:02:26.780 And he enjoyed Offspring.
00:02:30.460 And for me, when they came out with the giant inflatable skeletons,
00:02:35.080 that was time for Warren to go.
00:02:37.200 But she enjoyed herself.
00:02:39.920 So that was good.
00:02:42.380 And saw my cousins and my aunt.
00:02:45.800 And it was just a great couple of days.
00:02:50.820 But in there, of course, this morning, was the most important contest, in my opinion,
00:02:59.180 of the entire Olympics of 2026, which is the gold medal match between Canada and the United States.
00:03:07.220 When we got up, we started watching.
00:03:14.040 I interviewed Brian Lilley, by the way, and Carl Belange.
00:03:17.980 I couldn't get Karima this week.
00:03:20.580 Watched the first period.
00:03:21.920 They're behind.
00:03:22.760 So what did Warren do?
00:03:24.560 Well, it's Lent.
00:03:25.480 So I went to the Basilica, Notre Dame, which is one of the most beautiful buildings in Canada.
00:03:35.700 One of the most beautiful churches in the world.
00:03:38.120 And went to the Mass.
00:03:39.520 It was all in French.
00:03:40.500 And yes, I prayed for Team Canada.
00:03:46.380 They scored.
00:03:47.640 It worked.
00:03:48.820 So I left.
00:03:50.380 Left.
00:03:51.080 Finished the Mass.
00:03:52.040 Went back to the hotel to meet E.
00:03:54.160 And people started sending me messages.
00:03:57.180 Get back into church.
00:03:58.480 Get back into church.
00:04:00.080 Keep praying.
00:04:01.880 Because it's over time.
00:04:04.140 And we need to win.
00:04:05.680 Well, we didn't.
00:04:07.580 And it was sad.
00:04:09.220 And of course, that piece of shit.
00:04:11.800 The mango Mussolini.
00:04:13.320 The monkey with the machine gun.
00:04:15.080 The Cheeto Benito.
00:04:16.520 That son of a bitch.
00:04:19.140 Posts a picture.
00:04:21.620 Mocking us.
00:04:22.720 An eagle.
00:04:23.440 Killing.
00:04:24.160 A Canada goose.
00:04:27.100 And.
00:04:28.820 Like, what do you say about that?
00:04:30.200 So there's a bunch of Americans I follow.
00:04:32.100 Apologize to us.
00:04:33.540 I think they're embarrassed.
00:04:35.160 But you know.
00:04:36.000 Like, they created that.
00:04:37.840 They did that.
00:04:39.020 They invented him.
00:04:39.940 77 million of them.
00:04:41.740 Invented him.
00:04:43.480 And I think.
00:04:45.240 Fellow Canadians.
00:04:46.360 We're dreaming in Technicolor.
00:04:47.820 We think when that bastard dies.
00:04:50.300 Things are magically going to get better.
00:04:53.100 I don't think that they will.
00:04:55.440 But anyway.
00:04:55.780 Our team.
00:04:58.500 Our athletes were amazing.
00:05:00.980 And my hat is off to them.
00:05:03.420 For the fine work that they did.
00:05:06.220 And.
00:05:07.940 Better luck next time, I guess.
00:05:10.000 So in the meantime.
00:05:10.780 Here is a Kinsella cast.
00:05:12.280 I've got some bad religion.
00:05:13.340 I'm going to play for you.
00:05:14.000 Of course.
00:05:14.400 Because.
00:05:15.040 We got to see bad religion.
00:05:16.460 I don't feel like playing offspring.
00:05:18.340 I'm sorry.
00:05:19.080 They're just not my cup of tea.
00:05:21.480 Oh yeah.
00:05:21.820 And I've got a big, big story.
00:05:23.240 In post media.
00:05:24.180 This morning.
00:05:26.860 It's cross country.
00:05:27.820 You can see it.
00:05:28.920 It is.
00:05:30.820 About.
00:05:31.780 Canadian funded charities.
00:05:35.580 Being infiltrated by Hamas.
00:05:39.860 Knowingly.
00:05:40.560 Maybe not.
00:05:41.520 But being infiltrated by Hamas.
00:05:43.140 I've got all the.
00:05:43.940 I've got all the scoop there.
00:05:45.420 So you can check that out.
00:05:46.980 But.
00:05:47.720 Anyway.
00:05:48.520 An eventful weekend.
00:05:49.680 In Montreal.
00:05:50.560 Back now in the county.
00:05:51.800 Heading to Toronto soon.
00:05:52.820 And thank you.
00:05:55.280 For tuning in to this episode.
00:05:57.380 Of the Kinsella cast.
00:06:02.060 I can't believe it.
00:06:06.260 The way you look sometimes.
00:06:09.580 Like a trampled flag on a city street.
00:06:13.920 Oh yeah.
00:06:16.380 And I don't want it.
00:06:18.580 The things you're offering me.
00:06:25.140 Civilized fire called quick ID.
00:06:27.820 Oh yeah.
00:06:32.820 Cause I'm a 21st century digital boy.
00:06:37.060 I don't know how to live.
00:06:38.740 But I got a lot of toys.
00:06:40.780 My daddy's a lazy middle class.
00:06:43.160 Intellectual.
00:06:44.380 My mommy's a valley.
00:06:46.060 I'm so ineffectual.
00:06:47.920 Oh yeah.
00:06:48.920 Ain't life a mystery.
00:06:51.100 Oh yeah.
00:06:57.660 I can't explain it.
00:07:01.780 The things they're saying to me.
00:07:05.100 It's going.
00:07:06.100 It's going ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya, ya.
00:07:09.380 Oh yeah.
00:07:12.260 Cause I'm a 21st century digital boy.
00:07:16.480 I don't know how to read.
00:07:18.220 But I got a lot of toys.
00:07:20.260 My daddy's a lazy middle class.
00:07:23.100 Intellectual.
00:07:23.880 My mommy's a valley.
00:07:25.600 I'm so ineffectual.
00:07:27.420 It's like a mystery.
00:07:31.340 I tried to tell you about no control.
00:07:35.080 But now I really don't know.
00:07:38.560 And then you told me how bad you had to suffer.
00:07:42.180 Is that really all you have to offer?
00:07:45.040 See, I'm a 21st century digital boy.
00:08:06.580 I don't know how to read.
00:08:08.260 But I got a lot of toys.
00:08:10.200 My daddy's a lazy middle class.
00:08:13.040 Intellectual.
00:08:13.600 So my mommy's a valley.
00:08:15.380 So ineffectual.
00:08:17.380 That's what I am for.
00:08:20.940 We're all searching for more.
00:08:24.340 And if it's right with me, pull on fire.
00:08:27.880 Everything I want, I really need.
00:08:31.640 21st century digital boy.
00:08:35.140 21st century digital boy.
00:08:38.320 21st century digital boy.
00:08:39.380 And we're back.
00:08:40.200 And I'm in Montreal.
00:08:41.060 And Carl is, where are you right now, Carl?
00:08:44.660 I'm in Chelsea, buddy.
00:08:45.920 You're near a TV.
00:08:47.380 You're close to a television.
00:08:49.100 Yeah, very much so.
00:08:50.800 So what do you feel?
00:08:51.620 So it's the end of the first.
00:08:53.880 The Americans are ahead by a point.
00:08:55.920 There's been some close calls.
00:08:59.160 What's your prediction so far?
00:09:01.040 How do you think this is going to go?
00:09:02.960 Well, I mean, we can come back.
00:09:04.980 We've done it before.
00:09:05.940 But the defense, it looks like it's behind right now.
00:09:09.240 Yeah.
00:09:09.700 Yeah.
00:09:09.880 And so, you know, we have to just step up.
00:09:13.320 We have just, you know, we can do this.
00:09:15.220 We have better offensive talent than them, I think.
00:09:19.500 But we can't let them play in our zone that much.
00:09:23.480 No, they've been spending a lot of time there.
00:09:25.880 Let's talk about stepping up politically.
00:09:27.860 So this week, the U.S. Supreme Court, surprisingly to me, because the conservatives dominate that court, many of them appointed by Donald Trump, ruled decisively.
00:09:38.940 They ruled that he had acted illegally, quote unquote, in a decision that I encourage everybody to look at.
00:09:45.900 And immediately, there was celebration.
00:09:48.800 And then right after that, people were like, what does this mean?
00:09:51.900 What does it mean for Canada?
00:09:53.200 What do you think?
00:09:55.020 Well, it doesn't mean much for Canada.
00:09:56.740 I mean, it's nice symbolically, but frankly, the biggest tariffs that have been imposed on Canada were not under the law that was struck down by the American Supreme Court.
00:10:09.640 Nevertheless, it's nice to see, I think, for everyone, that institutions prevail, that the rule of law prevails.
00:10:18.700 Of course, Donald Trump had a plan B.
00:10:22.060 I think they knew this was coming.
00:10:23.720 And so he came back with different tariffs under different laws.
00:10:31.060 We'll see if those will stand.
00:10:33.400 But the problem is that the world economy is still in shambles because of the way that this president is acting.
00:10:42.540 And frankly, I don't know if anyone can prepare for his actions because they are so erratic, they are so irrational, they are so bad, even for Americans.
00:10:53.220 And this is where, again, we have to have faith in the American institutions and the democracy that it is.
00:11:01.280 And, you know, it's going to take some time, but the midterms in the fall are key, not only for the Americans, but for the world.
00:11:10.620 And the numbers are not great for the Republicans at the moment.
00:11:13.740 More than 30 of them have indicated they're retiring and going back to spend more time with their families.
00:11:19.620 But Trump doubled down in his typically Saturnalian press conference on Friday morning and said he had three different statutory means to impose tariffs.
00:11:30.580 And that's true.
00:11:31.380 He does.
00:11:32.100 He does have that ability.
00:11:33.700 So for Canada, what should Carney's next move be, do you think, here?
00:11:38.420 Should he fight it out?
00:11:39.780 Should he play the long game?
00:11:41.400 What should he do?
00:11:41.920 Yeah, I mean, slow thing down, right?
00:11:45.880 Like, that's the key form.
00:11:47.620 Like, there is no rush to come to any kind of agreement with the United States.
00:11:52.520 We have one in place that is barely respected.
00:11:56.780 So the truth is that the review of the current free agreement is underway.
00:12:05.020 The deadline in July will come and it will go.
00:12:09.280 We can't panic because you cannot plan for a guy like this.
00:12:15.820 You cannot play chess when he's playing checkers, you know?
00:12:19.720 It's a very different thing.
00:12:22.700 So you have to wait it out.
00:12:24.460 You can't panic.
00:12:25.400 But the key, though, for Carney is that if he doesn't get it still soon or if he doesn't get any kind of improvement and Canadians still feel the pain from the U.S. president's action,
00:12:39.280 politically, it gives an opening to his opponents because he was elected to fix this.
00:12:46.340 He promised he would fix this.
00:12:48.700 And so far, it has not gone his way.
00:12:51.960 And even though it hasn't gone his way, if you look at the polling, Carney is just unbelievably popular.
00:12:58.600 There was a main street.
00:12:59.580 I think it was an outlier.
00:13:01.380 But showing that the Liberal Party was within the margin of error of the Conservative Party in the province of Alberta, in my former home province.
00:13:11.260 Incredible things happening.
00:13:12.300 So it suggests to me that Canadians, notwithstanding the absence of results, still have a lot of confidence in Mark Carney, don't they?
00:13:19.680 And here's the thing.
00:13:22.220 Those numbers started moving back up when Mark Carney brought back his elbows up.
00:13:28.600 Because since the election, he put them down.
00:13:32.800 He was not the Mark Carney that people saw in the beginning of his mandate as prime minister.
00:13:39.880 And during the campaign, the guy promised he would give tit for tat, that he would fight back for Canada.
00:13:45.820 But that guy's been back since the beginning of the year, you know?
00:13:49.520 And certainly the devil's speech was a turning point.
00:13:53.140 Meanwhile, the Conservatives are in the state that they are.
00:13:57.100 So he is benefiting from that, clearly, because that's what Canadians want to see.
00:14:02.900 That's what Canadians want their prime minister to do.
00:14:06.060 Not the guy that goes to the White House and says,
00:14:08.540 Oh, Donald, look at the tie I'm wearing.
00:14:10.900 I wore it for you.
00:14:12.260 That's not the guy we voted for, you know?
00:14:15.820 Now, the Trump, it's impossible to figure out what he's going to do.
00:14:21.960 And Carney, I guess, we'll see what we're going to do.
00:14:24.660 You know, for Kuzma, you know, for this all-important agreement that is now subject to renegotiation,
00:14:31.000 do you feel, as I do, that the prospects don't look good?
00:14:35.560 I mean, I don't know why this guy seems to be so angry or so hateful towards Canada all the time,
00:14:42.180 but he is, he's always critical of Canada on the basis of nothing.
00:14:48.880 Does that portend bad things for the Kuzma?
00:14:51.720 Well, yeah, I think it does, which is why you can't rush into it, right?
00:14:59.880 But the reason why, I think, the reason why Trump has it for Canada is because we are too successful a partner.
00:15:08.680 We are winning too much.
00:15:10.500 And for Trump, that's all this is about.
00:15:12.640 It's about winning, and it doesn't matter if Americans are getting their, you know, their fair share.
00:15:19.480 It's not about fairness.
00:15:20.880 It's about winning.
00:15:22.080 And he feels that somehow the trade deals that we've had, that Canada is getting ahead.
00:15:29.080 I don't think it's true.
00:15:30.080 I think, you know, certainly in the automobile sector, the industry is so integrated that there's no clear winner.
00:15:41.400 But for Trump, he sees that as a loss because our industry has been thriving here the way it's been constructed.
00:15:49.100 And so this is all it's about.
00:15:51.080 You know, the art of the deal, if you've read that book, it's not about making good deals.
00:15:55.920 It's about winning.
00:15:57.020 And this old psyche is what's driving the trade policy of the United States right now because all of his sycophants are buying into that strategy.
00:16:09.020 And, you know, again, you have to go and trust the institution and assume that the public pronouncements and the bluster will not hold in the long run.
00:16:19.020 But you have to prepare for the worst.
00:16:22.360 Absolutely.
00:16:22.600 And we've got to prepare for the second period coming up.
00:16:25.280 I promised you I would keep it within the break.
00:16:28.380 Very quickly, NDP.
00:16:31.800 So that lunatic Eve Engler showed up to mess with the final NDP leadership debate.
00:16:38.820 It was crazy and ridiculous and a shit show.
00:16:43.580 So at the end of this process, we're getting closer to the end of the NDP leadership process.
00:16:50.360 It doesn't matter.
00:16:51.260 What do you think?
00:16:51.860 What's your prediction about who's going to win and will it count when they do?
00:16:55.560 Well, I think at this point, Avi Lewis looks like he's in the driver's seat.
00:17:04.900 And the question is not, can Avi Lewis win?
00:17:08.660 The question is, can he lose?
00:17:11.300 And this is where it's going to be very interesting because it's a ranked ballot.
00:17:17.640 It's not like a good old delegated convention where camps and factions can work together to create an anybody but Avi movement.
00:17:26.040 But behind the scenes, you know that the organizers are talking to each other and they're trying to convince their supporters to, you know, rank their magnificent fans, rank Rob Ashton as number two and vice versa.
00:17:42.740 So that you create that kind of condition to stop Avi Lewis from winning.
00:17:47.660 Will it work?
00:17:48.280 It's hard to say because in a one-member, one-vote type of formula, you cannot really predict that.
00:17:56.740 But all indicators seems to point to an Avi Lewis win.
00:18:02.180 And if he does, you know, I mean, let's be honest.
00:18:06.220 The guy has the better public profile of all the candidates.
00:18:10.680 He is charismatic.
00:18:12.040 And he's coming from an NDP royal family.
00:18:15.480 You know, David, his grandfather, and Stephen, his father, were successful politicians.
00:18:20.700 And they are still very active politically.
00:18:23.300 They are raising a lot of money on his behalf, especially in Ontario.
00:18:27.380 So there's a vacuum on the left right now.
00:18:31.120 Can Avi Lewis take advantage of that?
00:18:33.500 But maybe, at the same time, when he does, and if he does win, it's going to create problems with some provincial wings, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
00:18:44.760 And maybe problems for Mark Carney.
00:18:47.580 Well, listen, I'm watching.
00:18:48.880 Looks like the game will be coming back soon.
00:18:50.640 But my friends, thank you so much for taking the time to chat with me this week.
00:18:55.020 And go Canada.
00:18:56.420 Go Canada.
00:18:57.260 Go.
00:18:57.620 Can't you feel it?
00:19:19.060 Can't you see the promise of prosperity?
00:19:21.120 It's overwhelming, you and me.
00:19:23.120 It afflicts a psychotic disease.
00:19:24.800 Uniquitous, competitive, we cling to you like crazy glue, and injects such a potency, it's best for all humanity.
00:19:40.800 The spread of culture, the sword of primress, the vector of suffering, a warm and septic breeze.
00:19:47.740 The palm ventilation, the duty and vocation, the blood of the hybrid, it's just a recipe.
00:19:54.800 Reliving our ancestry, the fight for lack of harmony, our forefathers who led the way, their victims are still in a day.
00:20:13.340 Now it's time to erase the story of our bond, has fed our history, as it's portrayed as just a recipe for hate.
00:20:21.380 A recipe for hate.
00:20:24.800 The spread of culture, the sword of primress, the vector of suffrage, a warm and septic breeze.
00:20:33.200 The palm ventilation, the duty and vocation, the blood of the hybrid, it's just a recipe.
00:20:39.280 And we're back, we're back.
00:20:57.560 I'm in Montreal, Brian Nilley's in Toronto.
00:21:00.320 He is beside his television set.
00:21:03.440 I don't know if they call it television sets anymore.
00:21:06.160 Maybe they just call them television.
00:21:08.600 Because the game is about to start.
00:21:10.220 So by the time everybody hears this, I guess we'll know the outcome.
00:21:13.580 So what is your, you're in the prediction business?
00:21:16.420 What's your prediction?
00:21:17.800 I'm too nervous.
00:21:19.160 It's like the curling yesterday afternoon.
00:21:21.500 Two very well-matched teams.
00:21:23.300 And on paper, Britain was better.
00:21:26.680 And Canada won yesterday.
00:21:28.320 Yeah.
00:21:28.960 And today, we're better on paper.
00:21:31.940 Sydney Crosby not playing.
00:21:33.360 So we'll see.
00:21:34.420 We'll see.
00:21:34.920 It's, yesterday's curling was so exciting because they're such great match teams.
00:21:39.480 So, and I'm expecting that sort of thing today.
00:21:41.800 We watched a bit of the bobsled yesterday.
00:21:43.800 And my view is, if I was the guy at the back of the bobsled who didn't do anything, I would be excellent at that.
00:21:54.320 Just the, I'm the dead weight guy.
00:21:56.680 I'd be good at dead weight.
00:21:58.320 Okay.
00:21:58.800 Well, I won't put you on the spot and ask you who's going to win the game.
00:22:01.840 But matters of Canadian pride are a big deal this week.
00:22:06.560 A lot of Canadians feel that a huge victory was scored against Donald Trump's tariffs this week.
00:22:14.320 And I think you wanted to point out to people, not so fast.
00:22:19.440 My view is that this victory at the Supreme Court against tariffs doesn't mean anything for us.
00:22:27.760 Because the tariffs hitting us are not the International Economic Emergency Act.
00:22:34.320 I think you got the name of the act right, the IEEPA tariffs are what were struck down.
00:22:39.160 Those barely apply to anything coming from Canada to the U.S.
00:22:43.080 Our tariffs are what's called Section 232.
00:22:46.500 That's Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act from, I think, 1962.
00:22:53.340 Those weren't challenged.
00:22:55.040 And if you read the legislation, which I'm a geek and I have,
00:22:58.440 whoever is president has all the power in the world to impose those tariffs.
00:23:06.280 So, you know, all this talk of, oh, well, they're struck down.
00:23:09.920 Oh, he's bringing in 10% ones.
00:23:11.580 No, 15% ones.
00:23:12.800 Doesn't really matter to Canada because those 25% and 50% tariffs and 45% tariffs on steel,
00:23:20.240 aluminum, autos, lumber, those are still in place.
00:23:24.280 They didn't go anywhere.
00:23:25.260 And this new global tariff he's bringing in, well, everything in Kuzma is exempt.
00:23:31.080 Most of our exports, other than those sectoral ones I just listed off, covered by Kuzma.
00:23:36.400 So, you know, this is good news and big news for other countries.
00:23:40.860 Doesn't amount to a hill of beans for us.
00:23:43.740 One day I'm going to read the decision.
00:23:46.540 And one thing that's good about the American decisions is they're written very plainly.
00:23:52.400 I know as a lawyer, you read court decisions and sometimes ours gets too flowery.
00:23:56.780 There's, I don't know how this happened, but they're very short and very to the point.
00:24:01.820 And so easy to read and understand.
00:24:03.920 And I'm told that Gore such as concurrence of Justice Roberts' majority decisions,
00:24:09.180 well worth reading as he lays out separation of powers,
00:24:12.220 which is why they were struck down.
00:24:15.380 The law Trump used did not give him the power to impose tariffs.
00:24:20.740 Congress did not surrender that power the way they did in this other act,
00:24:24.080 which is why we're stuck with it.
00:24:25.880 They clearly delineated the power on national security grounds.
00:24:30.440 And that's why we're stuck with these.
00:24:31.720 Well, you're absolutely right on language.
00:24:33.880 The Americans have what they call a plain language movement within the legal profession
00:24:38.260 and to make it more accessible and understandable to people.
00:24:42.000 So they are doing that.
00:24:43.480 But I did still get, I got a phone call immediately after the decision,
00:24:48.500 a friend of mine who's in the beans business, who said,
00:24:52.320 what does this mean for me and my business?
00:24:54.600 What do I do?
00:24:55.320 My advice to him, and you can tell me whether I've written it or not,
00:24:58.380 is, look, this ain't over yet.
00:25:01.240 Take whatever you would have been paying in a tariff
00:25:03.840 and put it in a trust account.
00:25:06.680 Don't spend it somewhere else on your business.
00:25:08.960 Hold on to it because he may figure out some way to get at that money in the future.
00:25:15.720 You know, notify the Americans that you're keeping the money in a trust account
00:25:19.320 and wait to see where it goes.
00:25:22.020 And I said, you know, commence the decade-long litigation
00:25:26.120 to try and get your money back.
00:25:28.300 But it's going to take a while.
00:25:29.040 It's going to be a long time before, you know,
00:25:32.820 because the Trump guys have news that they won't give the tariffs they've collected back.
00:25:37.220 But if they are illegal, as the Supreme Court said,
00:25:40.620 then that money should be returned.
00:25:42.540 So there's going to be a fight over that.
00:25:44.660 And a weird thing that's been happening...
00:25:46.100 Although, in fairness to him, Trump didn't say the money wouldn't be paid back.
00:25:49.780 He didn't say that.
00:25:51.340 Oh, his administration officials have been saying that in interviews for months.
00:25:55.040 Oh, they have.
00:25:55.780 Oh, all right.
00:25:56.260 Yeah, yeah.
00:25:57.460 You know, well, no, this money will not be repaid.
00:26:01.220 Well, okay, we'll see.
00:26:03.600 But, you know, financial markets are weird.
00:26:07.640 And companies have been buying up long before the court decision.
00:26:14.240 Companies were buying up people's payables on what they paid,
00:26:20.740 you know, giving the potential for a refund.
00:26:23.360 And one of the biggest purchases of it, according to one report I saw,
00:26:27.960 is a little firm called Cantor Fitzgerald,
00:26:31.220 which used to be headed up by a guy named Howard Lutnick.
00:26:34.200 They bet big that they're going to get repaid one day.
00:26:38.040 And so they, you know, if you had paid a million dollars in tariffs
00:26:41.260 and you weren't sure you were going to get them back,
00:26:43.140 they would buy them for, I don't know, 300,
00:26:47.360 they'd buy your refund for $300,000 or $400,000.
00:26:50.660 And then they'll sit on it and wait to get the million back.
00:26:54.140 And they've done that with a bunch of firms.
00:26:56.160 Well, maybe Lutton had cooked that up when he was having a family vacation
00:26:59.320 on Epstein Island.
00:27:00.440 But so you're Mark Carney, you're Mark Carney,
00:27:05.560 and you're looking at this dog's breakfast on Friday.
00:27:11.140 This judgment rendered clearly,
00:27:13.740 but then President of the United States coming out
00:27:15.880 to kind of fuzzify the whole thing
00:27:18.760 and fuzzify our understanding of it.
00:27:20.580 If you're Mark Carney, what should you do?
00:27:22.120 Well, last week, Dominic LeBlanc was the leader
00:27:27.820 of a 370-person delegation to Mexico
00:27:30.500 to expand trade, do a charm offensive.
00:27:37.240 Our exports to the United States are worth 68 times
00:27:40.580 what they're worth to Mexico.
00:27:42.900 And Mexico's our fifth largest export market.
00:27:45.660 And by the way, you add up the fourth,
00:27:48.520 the second, third, fourth, and fifth largest export market
00:27:52.100 for Canada, and it amounts to about six weeks of trade with the U.S.
00:27:57.180 And our big exports are being tariffed.
00:28:02.760 So I think he's got to do a charm offensive in Washington again.
00:28:07.400 We have never done anything on the scale.
00:28:10.420 A lot of the people that have been there,
00:28:11.860 and Goldie Heider from the Business Council,
00:28:14.100 you know, big player in the trip to Mexico,
00:28:16.360 he's in Washington all the time.
00:28:18.440 But do the charm offensive in Washington,
00:28:21.080 get moving on the Kuzma deal.
00:28:23.780 The Mexicans are well ahead of us on this.
00:28:25.760 Well, they moved ahead of us on trade, didn't they,
00:28:30.180 this week, officially, for the first time.
00:28:33.040 They struck a critical minerals deal earlier this month.
00:28:36.660 They're full into the Kuzma review.
00:28:39.480 And we think that the Mexicans are going to stand up for us.
00:28:44.400 I mean, that's what Dominic LeBlanc is saying.
00:28:46.640 Do you not remember the last time this happened?
00:28:48.920 The Mexicans had a full deal,
00:28:51.780 and we had to sign off to what they negotiated at the last minute.
00:28:55.280 Yeah, they wanted us out.
00:28:56.940 And so that was a result of the Mexicans not really giving a shit about us,
00:29:01.020 which I still don't think they do.
00:29:02.720 And a guy who was not yet the U.S. trade representative,
00:29:07.600 he was Robert Lighthizer's chief of staff.
00:29:11.000 Now he's the USTR.
00:29:12.480 His name's Jameson Greer.
00:29:14.340 Greer was the guy that had that deal ready to go,
00:29:17.240 and then Canada had to sign on at the last second.
00:29:19.700 We don't want to be in that position.
00:29:21.560 Go in there.
00:29:22.500 People say, you can't get a deal with Trump.
00:29:24.960 Look, auto parts, not part of the 25% sectoral tariffs.
00:29:28.680 Why?
00:29:29.040 People went down and made the case.
00:29:31.060 We're going to end up at a deal at some point.
00:29:34.820 Stop waiting him out.
00:29:36.720 I know eventually he's going to be gone,
00:29:39.440 but that's still two and a half years.
00:29:41.440 And meanwhile, we're losing jobs.
00:29:42.840 Stellantis at GM in Oshawa.
00:29:45.860 The Brampton plant for Stellantis is not opening up again.
00:29:51.060 You've got job losses in other sectors.
00:29:55.820 Waiting things out is good if you're not impacted by it.
00:29:58.880 It's horrible if you're an auto worker,
00:30:00.340 a steel worker, aluminum worker.
00:30:02.440 Lumber.
00:30:03.440 Nobody talks about lumber,
00:30:05.060 but lumber tariffs are now at,
00:30:07.240 between the countervailing duties and tariffs, 45%.
00:30:09.860 45%.
00:30:10.660 It's decimating VC's industry.
00:30:13.840 We've got to do something.
00:30:15.860 Absolutely.
00:30:16.600 And their housing industry.
00:30:18.200 But let me, let's conclude with this,
00:30:19.900 because usually,
00:30:21.360 well, my role is to be the glass half empty guy.
00:30:26.700 Why do you believe,
00:30:28.280 if I understood you correctly,
00:30:29.700 why do you believe that Kuzma is going to be renegotiated?
00:30:32.880 Is it possible that we fail at getting a new deal?
00:30:37.320 I think, at the least,
00:30:40.260 we'll get a bilateral deal.
00:30:42.480 And part of the reason I know these trade numbers
00:30:46.860 off the top of my head
00:30:49.020 is because I was looking at them this week.
00:30:50.660 There's a big piece in the New York Times
00:30:52.180 quoting Greer extensively from multiple interviews
00:30:55.760 over a few weeks to lead up to this piece.
00:30:59.500 And it talked about that Trump may just want
00:31:02.520 a bilateral deal.
00:31:04.300 And I don't see overall how that's a bad thing for us.
00:31:09.400 You know,
00:31:09.740 so the numbers that I have,
00:31:12.480 419 billion in exports to the U.S. in 2024.
00:31:17.520 6.1 billion in exports to Mexico in 2024.
00:31:21.720 As I said, 68 times different.
00:31:25.880 So we export about 6 billion to Mexico.
00:31:28.680 They export to us 34 billion in that same year.
00:31:35.120 And it's not just agricultural products.
00:31:36.920 13 billion of that is autos.
00:31:39.300 You know,
00:31:39.520 we have a very lopsided trading agreement with Mexico.
00:31:42.640 We're not even trading with them.
00:31:44.620 You know,
00:31:44.840 my answer to Mark Carney going around the world
00:31:47.240 trying to secure new trade deals is,
00:31:49.340 stop doing that.
00:31:50.920 Work on the ones we have.
00:31:52.060 We have free trade deals with 51 countries,
00:31:54.040 and we only pay attention to one of them.
00:31:57.140 You know,
00:31:57.340 work the 50 that we already have going
00:31:59.320 and we'll improve things.
00:32:02.180 So if we end up with a bilateral deal,
00:32:04.680 does it change that much for us?
00:32:07.480 You know,
00:32:08.200 our big thing is,
00:32:10.020 do we have a deal with Washington?
00:32:12.700 So we'll at least get that
00:32:14.780 and we need to get the best deal that we can.
00:32:18.560 In 2018,
00:32:19.860 Trudeau went in and his big concern was
00:32:21.800 gendered language has to be part of it.
00:32:24.040 Well,
00:32:24.520 we did not get the best deal that time.
00:32:26.480 As I said,
00:32:26.920 we signed on to what the Mexicans had agreed to for us.
00:32:30.240 And they agreed to insert gendered language
00:32:32.660 into the deal,
00:32:34.240 laughed and moved on
00:32:35.180 while they got better access to our markets.
00:32:37.400 We need to focus on better access for our markets
00:32:40.460 and our producers
00:32:42.320 and come from a position of strength,
00:32:45.200 use oil leverage,
00:32:46.340 use critical minerals,
00:32:47.980 point to the big increase in defense spending
00:32:50.420 that Carney's announced and it's happening.
00:32:52.420 Do all of that.
00:32:53.840 From your lips to God's ears,
00:32:55.420 I hope you're right
00:32:56.080 because I'm not entirely convinced
00:32:58.020 we are going to get a deal.
00:32:59.160 But maybe as we get closer to the midterms,
00:33:01.440 maybe that increases our leverage.
00:33:02.940 I guess we'll find out.
00:33:03.980 And we'll find out who wins the hockey game.
00:33:05.940 So go and enjoy it.
00:33:06.920 Thank you,
00:33:07.380 sir,
00:33:07.500 for taking the time.
00:33:09.040 Much appreciated.
00:33:10.040 Have a great day and a great week.
00:33:11.240 Talk soon.
00:33:12.440 Hey,
00:33:13.340 sit down and listen,
00:33:28.920 and they'll tell you when you're wrong.
00:33:30.720 You're at a gate,
00:33:31.620 but vindicate as progress keeps along.
00:33:34.320 Pure and dead work,
00:33:35.280 I think they change its subconscious edge.
00:33:37.500 As old glory may change your consciousness.
00:33:39.520 There's a loser in the house
00:33:52.500 and a puppet on a stool
00:33:54.220 and a crowded way of life
00:33:55.900 and a black-reflecting fool
00:33:57.620 And as a people then
00:33:59.320 the moral fabric dies
00:34:01.160 Then comes against pretend
00:34:02.600 to ignore its people's cries.
00:34:09.440 Because you are the government
00:34:12.460 You are the imprudence
00:34:16.160 You are the volition
00:34:19.200 You are the conviction
00:34:22.520 And I make a difference
00:34:27.240 You are the volition
00:34:42.780 And I that Beauty
00:34:44.100 It's a god
00:34:44.540 I he his thing
00:34:44.780 You are the volition
00:34:45.700 And I know
00:34:46.560 that we are a man
00:34:48.140 You are the volition
00:34:48.640 True and error
00:34:49.760 True and error
00:34:50.200 And I think of
00:34:50.680 Well,
00:34:51.380 You are the volition
00:34:52.060 wrong
00:34:52.520 Where does your feelings