Louder with Crowder - October 25, 2024


2024 Election Exclusive: Why you Shouldn’t be Fooled by the Early Voting Data


Episode Stats


Length

32 minutes

Words per minute

190.70778

Word count

6,287

Sentence count

643

Harmful content

Misogyny

7

sentences flagged

Toxicity

38

sentences flagged

Hate speech

10

sentences flagged


Summary

Summaries generated with gmurro/bart-large-finetuned-filtered-spotify-podcast-summ .

In this episode, we take a deep dive into CNN's latest poll numbers and discuss whether or not Donald Trump is losing his core base of non-college educated white voters to the Democrats. We also discuss why this might not be so bad, and what we can do about it.

Transcript

Transcripts from "Louder with Crowder" are sourced from the Knowledge Fight Interactive Search Tool. Explore them interactively here.
Misogyny classifications generated with MilaNLProc/bert-base-uncased-ear-misogyny .
Toxicity classifications generated with s-nlp/roberta_toxicity_classifier .
Hate speech classifications generated with facebook/roberta-hate-speech-dynabench-r4-target .
00:00:00.000 *Mario plays* Glad to be with you.
00:00:28.000 If you're watching on Rumble and YouTube, usually this is a Mug Club, well really only on Mug Club, but we do have some Mug Club exclusive data analysis because we've been putting a lot of work into it, paying a lot of the dough.
00:00:41.000 Cheddar.
00:00:42.000 Is that what people call it?
00:00:43.000 Cheddar.
00:00:43.000 I don't know.
00:00:45.000 I'm looking at, specifically, some data that we see right now on whether Trump, there's been some concern Donald Trump is losing his base.
00:00:54.000 And we're going to be talking about that and looking at these swing states and the polls.
00:00:57.000 Again, there's a lot of good news, but you are being sold some information that may not be entirely correct as it relates to some key swing states.
00:01:05.000 The good news is there's something that you can do about it.
00:01:07.000 So before we get into it, let me ask you, which blue states are part of the blue wall do you think President Trump is most likely to end up flipping?
00:01:14.000 Don't cheat.
00:01:15.000 Don't fast forward.
00:01:16.000 And then you can comment afterward when you see our analysis.
00:01:20.000 Josh has a bet on this, by the way.
00:01:22.000 He's got a prop bet on Trump flipping a solid blue state.
00:01:25.000 So whichever one, make sure it's on his list.
00:01:26.000 It's like 10 states listed.
00:01:28.000 You just have to pop it. 0.82
00:01:52.000 That's disgusting.
00:01:54.000 And here in search here because this is also under his domain.
00:01:59.000 One of our brilliant researchers here, Lane the Brain.
00:02:01.000 Also known as Ginger Snap.
00:02:03.000 He doesn't like that.
00:02:03.000 But it's a term of endearment because the ladies love him.
00:02:06.000 How are you?
00:02:07.000 Good.
00:02:07.000 You know, glad to be here to work on numbers because that's what my degree is in is math.
00:02:12.000 That's exciting.
00:02:13.000 That's true.
00:02:14.000 No better person to bring in. 0.74
00:02:16.000 And you're a friendly ghost.
00:02:18.000 So... 1.00
00:02:19.000 All white. 0.68
00:02:20.000 It's always tough with the...
00:02:22.000 Well, I'm so tan that I thought I could do it.
00:02:24.000 I know.
00:02:24.000 The truth is, that's kind of a marvel that, you know, obviously he's a man who, he's no stranger to the weights, and that's hard to make quite apparent when you are that pale.
00:02:34.000 That's true.
00:02:35.000 I don't really get the, you know, like the black dudes get that nice lighting. 1.00
00:02:39.000 So do the white dudes in bodybuilding.
00:02:41.000 The clear dudes do not.
00:02:44.000 Not enough contrast.
00:02:45.000 We present to you the next Mr.
00:02:46.000 Olympia, Larry Bird!
00:02:50.000 So, we wanted to get into this because we're hearing a lot of claims made out there, both on the left and on the right.
00:02:55.000 And it's easy to get nerdy but also lose the bigger picture.
00:02:58.000 And a lot of people will tell you, hey, don't try and compare this to other elections because everything is changing very rapidly.
00:03:04.000 I think there's some truth to that, but there's a difference between that and being disingenuous in making comparisons in order to try and make one side feel as though defeat is imminent.
00:03:15.000 That's what we're seeing from CNN.
00:03:17.000 They are not pulling apples to apples comparisons, and we actually have had our team here pour through the data to be able to make that comparison.
00:03:25.000 Because CNN wants you to believe that an entire segment on the fact that Donald Trump is losing his core base, non-college educated white voters.
00:03:37.000 We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump's direction.
00:03:41.000 So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same.
00:03:45.000 But in fact, it's moving a little bit away from him.
00:03:47.000 So this is Trump's march with non-college white voters.
00:03:50.000 Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him.
00:03:53.000 It's actually moving slightly away.
00:03:54.000 So you go back eight years ago, he won him by 33.
00:03:57.000 You go back four years ago, he won him by 31.
00:04:01.000 Now what we look is we see that in the latest average of polls, he's only up by 27.
00:04:07.000 Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing these double-digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that's a rather interesting development.
00:04:27.000 Now, multiple problems with his analysis there, which we will get to, not the least of which, by the way, is, to be fair, it can be quite hard to poll non-college-educated white voters.
00:04:41.000 Is that a Rob Zombie film?
00:04:50.000 That's Margaritaville in the Lake of the Ozarks.
00:04:53.000 He's a parrot head, yeah.
00:04:57.000 So we do have some problems with the analysis here, and Lane and our team back here went through.
00:05:02.000 Let me give you the first problem.
00:05:04.000 You were pointing this out.
00:05:05.000 The source of the claim being made there, and that's Enten is the guy's name.
00:05:09.000 Yeah, Harry Enten.
00:05:10.000 Harry Enten.
00:05:11.000 The source of his claim is Enten's aggregate.
00:05:16.000 It's just like Prouders aggregate.
00:05:18.000 Now, here's the thing.
00:05:20.000 We are actually able to tell you where our data is coming from and which data is exclusive.
00:05:26.000 We, as far as I understand, Lane, please correct me, could not find the details of his data published in Anywhere, correct?
00:05:33.000 I would like to correct you, but I can't because we cannot.
00:05:36.000 Not anywhere.
00:05:36.000 It's not anywhere.
00:05:37.000 This is not to say it doesn't exist or they didn't run a focus group of two people from Pittsburgh.
00:05:42.000 I don't know how he got the information, but it's not available to us.
00:05:45.000 Okay, so here's a problem number two, by the way, that if you look at...
00:05:52.000 They're comparing...
00:05:52.000 Explain this second problem for people who don't know, and let's kind of simplify it.
00:05:55.000 Compared to 2024, right, the results that we have seen in these elections...
00:06:00.000 Right, so they're comparing polling right now with the white voters to what the exit poll showed after the actual election in 2020.
00:06:08.000 So actual results versus polling.
00:06:09.000 Right, actual results.
00:06:10.000 But we all know that the silent Trump voter is a real thing, and they don't tend to answer as heavily in polls as other voters.
00:06:17.000 And we'll get into that a little later on.
00:06:19.000 And by the way, when people say that Republicans outperform polls, what they mean to say, because you'll always get someone on the left saying, oh, that's not what happened in the midterms.
00:06:27.000 No, no.
00:06:28.000 What they mean to say is when Donald Trump is on the ballot.
00:06:30.000 Donald Trump outperforms polls.
00:06:32.000 There hasn't been an exception to that nationally yet.
00:06:36.000 And that's significant.
00:06:37.000 Okay, here's the third key problem, is that CNN's analysis claimed that the polling shows Kamala is holding her own.
00:06:46.000 In Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
00:06:48.000 That would seem pretty bad.
00:06:50.000 It would seem bad.
00:06:51.000 It would seem quite bad, which brings us to this exclusive Mug Club analysis.
00:06:55.000 All right.
00:07:01.000 And we will make this, of course, all references available to you.
00:07:04.000 Link in the description, lotwithcredit.com.
00:07:06.000 And some of this is exclusive, a lot of work into it.
00:07:08.000 So the numbers that we crunched, Lena, now you spend a lot of time with this.
00:07:12.000 Right.
00:07:13.000 What do we have?
00:07:13.000 We have data from 2020 with non-college voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
00:07:21.000 Right?
00:07:21.000 Yes.
00:07:22.000 Okay.
00:07:22.000 And a big problem that you see there, if we can bring up that still, is they used to include non-college educated voters.
00:07:29.000 It used to include people from vocational schools.
00:07:32.000 Correct.
00:07:32.000 Right.
00:07:32.000 So trade schools.
00:07:33.000 In 2020 it did.
00:07:34.000 Those were all in one category.
00:07:35.000 Yes.
00:07:35.000 Now that's been separated.
00:07:36.000 Now it's three separate categories.
00:07:38.000 Right.
00:07:38.000 So it's not an apples to apples comparison.
00:07:39.000 Exactly.
00:07:40.000 So the data that we've crunched makes the category as close as humanly possible to what we have seen in the last election.
00:07:47.000 Exactly.
00:07:48.000 Exactly.
00:07:48.000 Right?
00:07:49.000 And that number, when you look at that, comparing 2020, putting vocational schools or those who have attended them into that subset, 2020 compared to now, Trump is actually up 1.2% with all non-college educated people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
00:08:07.000 Here's a caveat.
00:08:09.000 We were not able to find exclusively non-college educated white voters outside of Enten's analysis.
00:08:18.000 Of course, his aggregate.
00:08:19.000 And the reason for that, I believe, Lane, is that no one has done it.
00:08:22.000 No, I mean, we looked through every polling source that we could find and we ended up settling mostly with Emerson because their crosstabs are the most detailed.
00:08:29.000 And it does not include the specific category of white non-college educated voters.
00:08:33.000 Again, why Enten doesn't just share where he's getting that information from, I'm not quite sure.
00:08:37.000 It would be very easy for him to do so.
00:08:38.000 You're not quite sure?
00:08:39.000 Well, I am.
00:08:40.000 You're not quite sure?
00:08:40.000 That's called sarcasm.
00:08:41.000 Come on! 0.61
00:08:41.000 Yes. 0.61
00:08:43.000 No, I know.
00:08:44.000 It would be very easy just to say that.
00:08:46.000 So the difference is here, we're saying, hey, here is where we got it.
00:08:49.000 Yeah.
00:08:50.000 And I would actually, based on all the data we have available to us, again, if we were to look at crosstabs of white voters versus, let's say, black voters, you would imagine that white non-college educated voters would be slightly higher than the overall 1.2% overperformance compared to 2020.
00:09:07.000 Yeah.
00:09:08.000 Right.
00:09:08.000 It makes sense to see that kind of downward shift from 2016 to 2020 because you have a white dude that resonated with a lot of kind of the old school Union Democrats.
00:09:18.000 Kamala's not resonating with old school Union Democrats, mostly because they wouldn't even endorse her. 1.00
00:09:23.000 Right.
00:09:23.000 That's true.
00:09:24.000 Also, because they don't understand her.
00:09:26.000 Nobody does, to be fair.
00:09:28.000 Also, not to be underestimated, they severely dislike her.
00:09:32.000 Some might argue disdain.
00:09:33.000 So at this point, when this man is telling you in CNN, and you are seeing this, unfortunately, then parroted across other platforms as though it is gospel.
00:09:40.000 That's the source.
00:09:41.000 Kind of like when you're talking about the Nazi comment, talking about the effing Mexican comment. 0.78
00:09:46.000 One person said something one time, and then everyone else thinks it's legitimate.
00:09:49.000 This is actually some pretty good news, but it seems like the left may just be flat out lying about Donald Trump.
00:09:56.000 Again, like they do, by the way, in all of their political ads.
00:09:59.000 Add it! *laughter* Hey there, I'm Colonel Slanders, here to talk to you about Donald Trump.
00:10:08.000 That Yankee's got a little too big for his britches. 1.00
00:10:11.000 But don't worry, because he's no bigger than a minnow in a fishing pond. 1.00
00:10:14.000 Hey, did you know that he called our fallen soldiers losers and suckers? 0.98
00:10:19.000 Well, as a Southerner, this offends me more than oven-baked chicken or mixed marriages. 1.00
00:10:24.000 And if you're taking your juicy, savory God-blessed chicken and baking it in the oven, then you, my friend, are the loser and or the sucker, because sure as hell ain't finger-licking good. 0.99
00:10:36.000 Good lord, that's good chicken. 1.00
00:10:38.000 Goddamn! 0.99
00:10:40.000 This ad's paid for by the Colonels for Harris Family Pack Bucket. 0.99
00:10:45.000 Oh, it's just a regular pack?
00:10:48.000 You know, I gotta say, that feels like an old-school Democrat I could get the wrong one.
00:10:52.000 I'd have a beer with him.
00:10:53.000 What do you mean by that?
00:10:54.000 I'd have a nice mint julep.
00:10:56.000 So, we want to give you an update here, too, as far as polling that we have seen and early voting, which is pretty significant.
00:11:04.000 Some ships are a lot of good to see.
00:11:06.000 But some wrinkles.
00:11:07.000 Good news is, it's a problem that you can directly affect.
00:11:11.000 So, the RCP average that we see right now has Kamala ahead, and you can correct me if I'm wrong on anything, Lane, has Kamala ahead by 0.2%.
00:11:19.000 Yes.
00:11:20.000 Right?
00:11:20.000 Okay.
00:11:21.000 The last four polls have gone Donald Trump.
00:11:23.000 Give this another three, four, five days, six days.
00:11:27.000 That may flip to Donald Trump.
00:11:29.000 Wall Street Journal just had him up three.
00:11:31.000 Did they really?
00:11:31.000 Yes.
00:11:32.000 That bastion of right-wing extremism.
00:11:34.000 In all those polls, it's plus two or three, I believe.
00:11:37.000 I don't believe there's one in the last four that's plus one.
00:11:39.000 I think it's either two or three in those polls.
00:11:41.000 One more poll and that number goes away.
00:11:43.000 And here's where the overperformance that you see from Donald Trump in polls historically, assuming, by the way, that maybe, maybe pollsters haven't gotten it 100% right.
00:11:52.000 We've been told that they have at this point, so you can trust them.
00:11:55.000 And this is just one tool that you have available to you.
00:11:57.000 But we'll look at 2020, okay?
00:11:58.000 2020 at this point, Biden was up by 8.1%.
00:12:01.000 Wow.
00:12:02.000 Right?
00:12:02.000 In those polls.
00:12:03.000 Final popular vote?
00:12:04.000 He won by 4.5%.
00:12:06.000 So he won by half.
00:12:08.000 Yeah, he won by about half.
00:12:10.000 Kamala's up 0.2%.
00:12:12.000 So if it's even close to the overperformance, again, let's look at Hillary Clinton. 1.00
00:12:15.000 2016, she was up by 5.5 at this point in that election.
00:12:19.000 The final popular vote, she did win by 2.1%.
00:12:22.000 So again, about half.
00:12:24.000 Let's take the low number, the three.
00:12:25.000 They're off by three, the closest one they got with Hillary Clinton.
00:12:28.000 Right.
00:12:28.000 Three points?
00:12:29.000 That means Donald Trump wins the popular vote by two points.
00:12:32.000 It means that, yes, the popular vote is well within reach at this point.
00:12:36.000 That's one where I think the betting odds might actually be wrong a little bit because everyone has said, well, he's not going to lose the popular vote.
00:12:42.000 Yeah, they just assume it's going to happen.
00:12:43.000 Can you imagine the meltdown of Trump, like, way overperformed in California and won the popular vote but ended up losing the Electoral College?
00:12:49.000 That would be absolutely insane.
00:12:50.000 What do you think?
00:12:51.000 Why would you put that out in the ether?
00:12:53.000 Well, Because that would absolutely burn down Democrats' entire worldview.
00:12:57.000 Yes, it would.
00:12:57.000 James Carville would be in the White House.
00:12:59.000 The point is, they would be twisted and not.
00:13:02.000 I don't want it to happen.
00:13:03.000 No, no one wants it to happen.
00:13:04.000 James Carville would be out in the streets with an AR-15.
00:13:06.000 No, no, I get it, man.
00:13:08.000 No, but Harris...
00:13:09.000 James Harris won.
00:13:11.000 It don't matter.
00:13:12.000 It don't matter.
00:13:13.000 If she lost that popular vote, that's what matters.
00:13:15.000 You're making the rules, we just call them.
00:13:16.000 One of the electoral cards.
00:13:18.000 So...
00:13:19.000 Let's look at the swing states.
00:13:21.000 Right now, Donald Trump is leading in all swing states.
00:13:25.000 The average across all of them is Trump is up 0.9%.
00:13:28.000 Again, in 2020, Biden was leading in all swing states.
00:13:33.000 The average advantage he saw was about four points.
00:13:36.000 Four points!
00:13:37.000 That's about a five-point spread.
00:13:40.000 That's pretty significant.
00:13:41.000 And then we get to early voting. 0.99
00:13:44.000 So, again, it's too early to make all of these judgments, but we can certainly make the judgment that that guy in CNN likely full of crap, right? 0.99
00:13:51.000 That's safe? 0.99
00:13:52.000 Yeah, safe.
00:13:53.000 Most likely scenario.
00:13:55.000 I would sooner trust Frank Luntz with his hairpiece and white sneakers.
00:14:00.000 Always white sneakers.
00:14:01.000 Now, how many people are going to vote for Trump?
00:14:04.000 Show of hands.
00:14:04.000 Show of hands.
00:14:05.000 There you go.
00:14:05.000 That's 100%.
00:14:06.000 What was that?
00:14:07.000 Sorry, 90%.
00:14:08.000 More money, please.
00:14:09.000 Brilliant.
00:14:09.000 Yeah.
00:14:11.000 So let's look at the early voting here, 2020 versus now.
00:14:15.000 And Lane, make sure you kind of provide some context here, because some people may have a tough time with the sources that we are going to be giving to you, looking at the crosstabs and the references.
00:14:25.000 Right.
00:14:25.000 So we're pulling all the data from all available references and then looking at what best represents where we are right now, which is 12 days out from the election.
00:14:36.000 So all these early voting kind of statistics that we're going to see are comparing to the same 12 days out and voting in 2020.
00:14:45.000 Exactly.
00:14:45.000 And that's important because what you were talking about earlier, there's a difference in basically comparing polling before an election and then Exit points.
00:14:53.000 Huge difference.
00:14:54.000 So we're making sure that we're comparing at this exact moment in time because each day can make a significant difference.
00:15:00.000 Okay, so let's look at North Carolina.
00:15:02.000 What you have seen with early voting is a 14-point swing toward Republicans.
00:15:09.000 That means 14 points...
00:15:13.000 Along that scale toward Republicans.
00:15:15.000 That doesn't mean Republicans are winning by 14 points.
00:15:17.000 It means it's a 14-point difference in early voting now versus the exact time in the election in 2020.
00:15:27.000 That's huge.
00:15:28.000 Absolutely huge.
00:15:30.000 And what's the other key point that you were saying here, Lane?
00:15:33.000 Is that Democrats were leading in early voting until, if I'm not mistaken, yesterday morning?
00:15:38.000 Yeah, yesterday morning, actually, the total.
00:15:40.000 It's not just that there has been that 14-point swing, but now it's actually put Republicans into positive territory.
00:15:45.000 So they are, in terms of raw numbers, right now ahead in North Carolina.
00:15:49.000 Yeah, which is huge.
00:15:50.000 When you have a very close state, 10, 20, 30,000 votes, making sure that you get people out to start kind of winning.
00:15:56.000 Like, if all of these early voters vote early and then we have a terrible turnout on Election Day, yeah, that can be bad for Republicans.
00:16:03.000 But these are positive signs that if we keep doing what we're doing...
00:16:06.000 This could be very good.
00:16:07.000 Well, I will tell you this.
00:16:08.000 Before the hurricane, I was most concerned about North Carolina.
00:16:10.000 Yes.
00:16:10.000 I thought that it was a dark horse a lot of people weren't paying attention to.
00:16:14.000 And it didn't seem like maybe there was as good of a ground game there.
00:16:18.000 But it seems like now, again, it's not.
00:16:20.000 Nothing is a guarantee.
00:16:21.000 Nothing is a safe bet at this point.
00:16:23.000 So you need to do your port.
00:16:24.000 We cannot say port.
00:16:26.000 Did I say you need to do your port?
00:16:27.000 Your port.
00:16:27.000 You need to do your parts.
00:16:29.000 It's your worst nightmare.
00:16:31.000 Your car broke down.
00:16:32.000 And you don't do your port.
00:16:33.000 A good way to look at this, and I think when people use point, like the term point swing, 16-point swing, whatever, it's kind of hard to digest, but if you just think about it like in basketball or something, and the home team is down by five, and they hit a three-pointer.
00:16:46.000 Well, there's been a three-point swing in favor of the home team, but they're still down by three.
00:16:50.000 What happened in North Carolina is they hit enough shots that they're actually ahead now.
00:16:56.000 Right.
00:16:56.000 Yes.
00:16:56.000 Exactly.
00:16:57.000 So it could be, let's say, if Republicans were losing, it could take them from, let's say, 40...
00:17:05.000 I have a headache right now. 0.93
00:17:09.000 I said I wanted to puncture my skull with a nail gun. 0.99
00:17:13.000 You did it. 1.00
00:17:13.000 I brought a nail gun and you chickened out. 1.00
00:17:16.000 It's really hard to do math when you do have a headache.
00:17:17.000 Well, Lane did it too.
00:17:18.000 He said you hit a three-pointer when you're down by five and you're still down by three.
00:17:21.000 Just look.
00:17:22.000 Check the sources and the cross tabs.
00:17:25.000 It's the bad math.
00:17:26.000 It's contagious. 0.99
00:17:29.000 We've spent so much time watching Kamala Harris interviews that we are actually dumber.
00:17:33.000 I'll speak for seven minutes on the next point, please.
00:17:35.000 Yes.
00:17:36.000 At Notre Dame education.
00:17:38.000 Terrence Howard appreciates your math.
00:17:41.000 That's because I spent time with Pythagoras.
00:17:44.000 You did, huh?
00:17:46.000 It's the flower of life.
00:17:49.000 Why do you sound like you're going to cry?
00:17:50.000 It's just the way I talk.
00:17:54.000 Let's go.
00:17:55.000 Let's go to Nevada.
00:17:57.000 There's been a 16-point swing to Republicans.
00:18:01.000 And this is the first time, actually, that Republicans are leading early voting since 2008.
00:18:07.000 Have that right, Lane?
00:18:08.000 Yes, you do.
00:18:09.000 And a big reason for that is that the rural vote is, well, you have the Clark County, the wall is not as strong as it needed to be.
00:18:16.000 And the rural vote has been overperforming by a significant number.
00:18:21.000 I wonder why that is.
00:18:22.000 I wonder why the rural vote right now is coming out.
00:18:25.000 The people that are most, in my opinion, maybe the people that are most overlooked in this country.
00:18:29.000 They're all the time referred to, not just as flyover states, but even within states.
00:18:33.000 Like, alright, we care about Chicago, but we care about nothing else south of Chicago.
00:18:37.000 These people that have been marginalized, that are having to go to the grocery stores and pay some of the highest prices.
00:18:41.000 I wonder why they're like, you know what?
00:18:43.000 No, no, screw it.
00:18:44.000 I'm voting.
00:18:45.000 Right.
00:18:45.000 I think that's a huge point for us right now, because there's a lot of ground we can gain.
00:18:49.000 Yesterday, we took a chat from somebody saying, ah, people just don't vote because they think Chicago and Illinois is going to carry the state.
00:18:55.000 Sure.
00:18:56.000 You're getting a lot of those people this time around, hopefully, that are like, screw it, we're voting.
00:18:59.000 Right.
00:18:59.000 Yeah, I think you're right.
00:19:00.000 And of course, there's some anomalies because of COVID, the China virus in the rearview mirror here.
00:19:07.000 Hopefully, God willing.
00:19:08.000 Arizona.
00:19:09.000 Arizona.
00:19:09.000 We've seen a 16-point swing toward the Republican Party.
00:19:14.000 So that means that right now Republicans are actually leading by 53,000 votes and counting.
00:19:22.000 That's great.
00:19:23.000 And they've been leading from the beginning of early voting, and the reason that that, again, context matters, Republicans never led in the early voting in 2020.
00:19:32.000 So you've heard this a lot.
00:19:33.000 I've seen this on message.
00:19:34.000 Actually, Republicans always lead early voting, and they try and say Democrats led mail-in voting, Republicans led early voting.
00:19:39.000 Well, there wasn't as much of a gap, and it kind of goes state to state, but in Arizona, definitively, Republicans never led early voting in 2020 at all.
00:19:47.000 They're leading by 53,000.
00:19:49.000 Fox said they did.
00:19:50.000 Right.
00:19:50.000 That's right.
00:19:51.000 Yeah, exactly.
00:19:52.000 12 days before anybody else said they did.
00:19:54.000 That's right.
00:19:55.000 And they called it with, I believe it was, you know, we had to revise it.
00:19:58.000 0.01% of the votes.
00:20:00.000 Yeah, 0.01%.
00:20:01.000 Roughly.
00:20:03.000 They were like, watch, we're going to make this call.
00:20:04.000 People are going to like us for this.
00:20:07.000 Jeff voted.
00:20:10.000 One guy, and it's over, folks!
00:20:14.000 They got, like, their two top execs fired.
00:20:16.000 I know.
00:20:18.000 And it didn't even matter.
00:20:19.000 Why would you put your job of the life for that call?
00:20:23.000 What are you doing?
00:20:24.000 And here's a really messed up point, and I know that some of you are screaming at your screen right now, or if you're driving at your phone, eyes on the road.
00:20:31.000 Arizona has now claimed that it will take them likely 10 to 13 days to tabulate results.
00:20:39.000 County leaders are asking voters for patience and to be prepared.
00:20:43.000 No.
00:20:44.000 Tight races, high interest in the election, and a two-page ballot are leaving Maricopa County officials warning of lines on election day and also warning it's going to take them 10 to 13 days to tabulate results.
00:20:56.000 And by the way, of course, any interference or the steel is a figment of your imagination.
00:21:01.000 Sorry, at the last election in Maricopa County, I believe it was, you couldn't vote for about four hours, which, if you work for a living, maybe means you can't vote.
00:21:10.000 And by the way, yes, we do have more technology available to us than ever before.
00:21:13.000 But it's not going to be like previous elections where we didn't have said technology, and you know the results that night.
00:21:18.000 It's going to take a week and a half to two weeks, which, by the way, Should occur in no world if Republicans are leading the early voting.
00:21:27.000 Because they didn't lead last time.
00:21:28.000 You'd have to believe that Democrats would show up in such huge numbers on election day that there would be no way to call it.
00:21:35.000 How can you take that long to count votes?
00:21:38.000 I just looked this up last night.
00:21:39.000 Taiwan has like 10 plus million voters or something like that.
00:21:42.000 They counted every vote in six hours and you knew the winner of the election that night.
00:21:46.000 Well, yeah, that's because they have some kids like chained to the voting room. 0.95
00:21:49.000 Look how I can't see about it.
00:21:52.000 It looks spoiled.
00:21:53.000 Don't spoil about it.
00:21:54.000 Count about it.
00:21:55.000 No spoil.
00:21:55.000 They're using the abacus without actually having it in front of me.
00:21:57.000 Have you ever seen that when they do it from memory?
00:21:59.000 It's like, what the heck?
00:22:00.000 They do Asian math. 0.67
00:22:01.000 We count five minus three.
00:22:02.000 Yes, I know.
00:22:03.000 And get three.
00:22:04.000 No, no.
00:22:05.000 No, it happened.
00:22:05.000 It did.
00:22:06.000 I did it.
00:22:06.000 Guilty.
00:22:07.000 No, he did it.
00:22:08.000 You did the other one.
00:22:09.000 So let's go to Georgia.
00:22:11.000 Georgia.
00:22:12.000 And this is why it's kind of interesting.
00:22:14.000 Again, these things can shift, right, depending what kind of votes come in.
00:22:17.000 But there is reason to feel good about this at this moment in time.
00:22:24.000 Not overconfident.
00:22:25.000 Georgia, we're not saying the same kind of ghetto that you saw in North Carolina or Arizona, which may surprise people.
00:22:30.000 There's been a four-point swing to Republicans.
00:22:34.000 So a new poll actually did come out, which is pretty much only 28% of Georgia men support Kamala.
00:22:40.000 That's kind of surprising.
00:22:42.000 Oh, wow.
00:22:42.000 Good.
00:22:45.000 It's because she's been campaigning there a lot, Stephen.
00:22:47.000 I think that's the problem.
00:22:48.000 Yes, yes, that is the primary problem.
00:22:50.000 She won't leave.
00:22:51.000 Because there are a lot of just, I don't know if you know this, there are a lot of black voters in Georgia, a lot of black men in Georgia, which may be why, you know, 50% of Georgia men supported Biden, 28% not supporting Kamala.
00:23:02.000 I think you're right.
00:23:02.000 I think she spoke.
00:23:04.000 She spoke.
00:23:04.000 She's like the auntie that will never go home.
00:23:06.000 Yes, exactly.
00:23:08.000 Yes.
00:23:09.000 She would do better if she just said nothing.
00:23:11.000 She just left. 0.85
00:23:12.000 Just pull the Joe Biden strategy.
00:23:14.000 Go sit in a basement somewhere, see what happens.
00:23:16.000 50% of Georgia men supported Biden.
00:23:18.000 He looks like he could have been a slave owner.
00:23:22.000 He could have been alive.
00:23:25.000 You've got to be kidding me.
00:23:26.000 50% of the people in that state? 0.98
00:23:28.000 Atlanta is heavily gay, though, to be fair. 0.97
00:23:30.000 Oh, is it? 0.98
00:23:30.000 Oh, okay. 0.98
00:23:31.000 And they don't like women. 0.99
00:23:32.000 That makes sense.
00:23:33.000 It does.
00:23:33.000 It's adding up.
00:23:34.000 I guess it does.
00:23:35.000 We dive deep here.
00:23:36.000 Yes, we do.
00:23:37.000 Because Joe had a Grindr account.
00:23:39.000 Like, Anderson's at CNN. Oh, my gosh.
00:23:41.000 Can you imagine?
00:23:42.000 Oh, yeah. 0.99
00:23:42.000 What an erection kill that would be if you're right. 0.99
00:23:45.000 Like, hey, let me talk to you about... 0.99
00:23:47.000 Ah!
00:23:50.000 Come on, Jack.
00:23:51.000 They were going to head CNN in San Francisco, but they couldn't.
00:23:56.000 The two in the grinders just came with ice cream.
00:24:02.000 Swipe left. 0.99
00:24:04.000 Pennsylvania.
00:24:04.000 Okay, this is the most interesting one, and I know you're very passionate about this, Lane.
00:24:08.000 So we have seen a 19-point swing to Republicans.
00:24:11.000 Yeah, that's huge.
00:24:13.000 Here's something that you need to know, though.
00:24:15.000 And Scott Pressler's been doing great work there.
00:24:17.000 Phenomenal.
00:24:17.000 Most of what you've heard, by the way, almost is true as far as the good news.
00:24:20.000 But there is some context that really matters.
00:24:22.000 The good news is you can do something.
00:24:24.000 Republicans there would need a huge voter turnout to win Pennsylvania.
00:24:28.000 Let me be clear.
00:24:29.000 There is no world that exists...
00:24:32.000 In which it's anything other than razor thin in Pennsylvania for Republicans to win this.
00:24:38.000 If you could help us go through some of these numbers for people who aren't number nerds out there, Lane.
00:24:43.000 Six minus three is three, just to be clear.
00:24:45.000 You said they were down by five.
00:24:46.000 Whatever.
00:24:47.000 They hit a three.
00:24:48.000 Anyway, okay, so...
00:24:49.000 Don't try to fact check me!
00:24:51.000 If we're looking at the registration in Pennsylvania right now, Democrats have 3.95 million people registered.
00:24:57.000 That's actually a decrease of 181,000 from the same time in 2020.
00:25:01.000 That's good for us.
00:25:02.000 That's good.
00:25:03.000 We're seeing a decrease.
00:25:04.000 And Republicans have slightly less at 3.6 million registered voters, but that is a positive trend of 156,000 more at the same point in 2020.
00:25:13.000 So that's good, but the raw number is still favoring Democrats.
00:25:17.000 Right.
00:25:17.000 Because what was the voter turnout in 2020?
00:25:20.000 So this is another key point because Republicans actually outperformed in the turnout in 2020 as well by about 7%.
00:25:26.000 I think 84% of Republican registered voters turned out to only 77% of registered Democrat voters.
00:25:33.000 And that's a key fact because it does bring us to another, again, exclusive piece of analysis here from the Mug Club team.
00:25:33.000 Right.
00:25:33.000 Right.
00:25:39.000 All right, we've got nerdy.
00:25:46.000 So put this next point as simply as possible, Lane, for the folks out there going, give me the number here.
00:25:52.000 Right, so we saw that we've closed the gap, but we still have a smaller, raw number of registered voters.
00:25:59.000 So if all things remain the same, and the same percentage of registered voters for both parties turn out in 2024 as compared to 2020, Republicans will win.
00:26:10.000 But only by 58,000 votes or less than 1%.
00:26:14.000 Which, if we know how Democrats operate and they see the number 58,000, well, they have a bunch of voters that they're leaving on the table.
00:26:22.000 And I think there's plenty of methods that they might use to get them on the table.
00:26:26.000 And that's the concern that some people have with early voting, is it gives you just sort of, okay, this is what you need to close that gap.
00:26:26.000 Exactly.
00:26:33.000 I'm hoping that we see a higher, again, voter turnout, because in some states it's been outpacing even registrations.
00:26:38.000 So here's kind of some analysis that we've done, obviously, that paints a very clear picture of do not take anything for granted in Pennsylvania at all.
00:26:46.000 But here's the positive news.
00:26:49.000 I think baked into that, I hope there is a larger percentage of those new registered voters that are going to turn out for Republicans based on the work that Scott Pressler has done.
00:27:00.000 Right?
00:27:01.000 So I'm hoping what we'll see is that if, let's say, he got 100,000 people signed up.
00:27:05.000 The numbers are different than that.
00:27:06.000 But let's say he got 100,000 people signed up to register to vote.
00:27:09.000 I'm hoping we see a significantly higher than 84% number of those people actually going to vote.
00:27:15.000 Because they're excited about it.
00:27:15.000 Yeah.
00:27:15.000 Right?
00:27:16.000 They're getting registered.
00:27:17.000 They're engaged.
00:27:18.000 They're going to go vote on Election Day.
00:27:20.000 So I hope we'll see increased turnout.
00:27:22.000 But for him, he knows the work is not done just because you're able to vote.
00:27:26.000 The work is done once you do vote.
00:27:28.000 Yes.
00:27:28.000 And once you confirm your vote.
00:27:30.000 Yeah.
00:27:30.000 Once you confirm, it's like, who voted here?
00:27:33.000 My name's not Joe Lewis.
00:27:35.000 That must be an error.
00:27:36.000 So that's the thing people need to look out for, though.
00:27:38.000 77% Democrat turnout, I believe, is what we said in 2020.
00:27:41.000 That's a little low.
00:27:42.000 They can increase that number.
00:27:43.000 They could overperform that in Pennsylvania, certainly, especially when you have Josh Shapiro.
00:27:48.000 Again, it could also be tough because it's the highest...
00:27:51.000 I don't want to get too far off and speculate, but the highest, I believe, percentage of the Jewish vote in the Midwest, of any of the Midwestern states, I believe Pennsylvania.
00:27:59.000 Very high.
00:28:00.000 And, you know, they probably feel like they've been snubbed a little bit.
00:28:04.000 Hopefully they stay home.
00:28:05.000 Yes.
00:28:06.000 If they're going to vote Dem, stay home.
00:28:07.000 Well, hopefully they vote Republican.
00:28:08.000 Yeah, that's what I would go with.
00:28:10.000 There's one candidate who didn't say that.
00:28:12.000 That sounded kind of anti-Semitic. 0.99
00:28:13.000 Yeah, Jews are committing jail. 1.00
00:28:14.000 I'm going to vote for Democrats. 0.99
00:28:15.000 I want them to stay home, no matter who they are, Lane.
00:28:17.000 What do you think this is?
00:28:18.000 What, you're going to scare them with the angel of death?
00:28:20.000 Painting lamb's blood over their doorway?
00:28:22.000 For such a time as this, Stephen.
00:28:25.000 The ends justify the means.
00:28:28.000 So, and again, we're going to give you all these data points.
00:28:31.000 The references are available.
00:28:32.000 Click the link in the description, ladderwithcredit.com.
00:28:34.000 We're going to be continuing this as we go.
00:28:36.000 Let me give you this conclusion, what it is that we are seeing.
00:28:38.000 Okay. 1.00
00:28:38.000 That guy on CNN, full of crap. 1.00
00:28:40.000 Donald Trump's base is pretty damn similar, solid, if not slightly better when you're talking about non-college voters at this point, if you include vocational schools. 0.99
00:28:50.000 That's good news.
00:28:51.000 You're looking at the polling right now.
00:28:53.000 Better than 2020.
00:28:54.000 Okay.
00:28:55.000 Overall, better than 2020.
00:28:56.000 All swing states.
00:28:57.000 Better than 2020.
00:28:58.000 Okay.
00:28:59.000 Then you look at the early voting.
00:29:01.000 Better in Nevada than last election.
00:29:03.000 Okay.
00:29:03.000 Better in Arizona than last election.
00:29:05.000 Good.
00:29:05.000 Better in Georgia than last election.
00:29:07.000 Good.
00:29:08.000 Did I say Nevada?
00:29:09.000 I said Arizona?
00:29:09.000 North Carolina.
00:29:10.000 North Carolina.
00:29:11.000 Better in Georgia, right? 0.74
00:29:12.000 All those are better.
00:29:13.000 And by the way, contextually, better in Pennsylvania.
00:29:17.000 However, in Pennsylvania, that may not be enough.
00:29:23.000 And it certainly won't be enough if you think that this is a walk-off.
00:29:27.000 So all good news.
00:29:28.000 I would just say all good news across the board.
00:29:30.000 It's all good news.
00:29:31.000 And the problem or the wrinkle that we are facing is one over which you can have a direct impact.
00:29:37.000 And I'm not just saying vote.
00:29:38.000 I'm talking about any of you have a platform.
00:29:40.000 If it's social media, if you have a YouTube channel, if you have a podcast, if you have friends, if you have a social group, if you want to go out and volunteer to be a poll watcher, you want to go...
00:29:49.000 It's not too late.
00:29:51.000 To do something about those 58,000 votes, right?
00:29:54.000 If that's what we're talking about.
00:29:55.000 And again, this is somewhat hypothetical, but it still is going to be very close.
00:29:59.000 But you can have an impact on that right now with the knowledge that you have.
00:30:03.000 Everything is looking better than before.
00:30:08.000 Contextually, that's great everywhere, except contextually in Pennsylvania, you still do have some work to do.
00:30:14.000 It's not the home stretch.
00:30:15.000 It is a sprint.
00:30:16.000 Yeah, absolutely.
00:30:17.000 Do not let up at all.
00:30:19.000 Get people to go vote, too.
00:30:20.000 If you've got friends that you know that are registered to vote, make sure, like, check in with each other.
00:30:24.000 Yes.
00:30:25.000 Buddy system.
00:30:25.000 Sometimes people just are very, very busy in their life.
00:30:27.000 I get it.
00:30:28.000 You can be like, oh, they shouldn't be.
00:30:29.000 They are, right?
00:30:30.000 Yeah.
00:30:30.000 Got a lot on their plate.
00:30:31.000 Be like, hey, I'm going to vote today at lunch.
00:30:32.000 Do you want to go with me?
00:30:33.000 Makes it really simple.
00:30:34.000 Do your part in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, places like that.
00:30:38.000 We can win this election and never have to talk about Kamala Harris again.
00:30:41.000 And this isn't to say, like you said, that people like Scott Pressler aren't doing a great job.
00:30:45.000 This is only possible because of the work that people like him have done.
00:30:48.000 We are just trying to help build upon what he's done using our platform and what we do.
00:30:52.000 Yes, exactly.
00:30:53.000 And saying that, look, it doesn't pay to be unrealistic at this point.
00:30:57.000 You have to look at those numbers.
00:30:58.000 It's going to be close in Pennsylvania.
00:31:01.000 It is going to be close.
00:31:03.000 Still, there's a lot you can do, and the numbers look good at this point in time.
00:31:07.000 And by the way, you can expect Not only this, but a whole lot more on election night.
00:31:11.000 I mean, I don't even know if we're going to have space in this office because we are going to have the live electoral integrity map.
00:31:15.000 Again, based on the data and the analysis that we exclusively have available here where you will actually be able to see states, see progress, see disputes.
00:31:23.000 If the media calls it with just getting an update, Fox News called Arizona with actually it looks 0.0002%.
00:31:29.000 I don't know how they did it.
00:31:31.000 It was just the only vote was a leg. 1.00
00:31:33.000 Shit, they just fired Hannity. 1.00
00:31:34.000 what happened Why is Jesse Waters out there on 46 with a skin cup? 0.99
00:31:46.000 So we are going to be able to call states.
00:31:47.000 We are going to have cross streams.
00:31:49.000 We are going to have boots on the ground, investigative journalists.
00:31:51.000 So along with the data, the ability to get some people there so that nothing happens without us being able to shine a light on it.
00:31:58.000 None of it happens without you.
00:31:59.000 It's been a huge undertaking.
00:32:00.000 Consider joining Mug Club. 0.69
00:32:02.000 It's $89 a year.
00:32:04.000 You get this.
00:32:04.000 You get the Friday show.
00:32:05.000 You get Nick the Pell.
00:32:05.000 You get everything else that comes with Mug Club.
00:32:07.000 And it's the only way this happens.
00:32:09.000 No funding from a foreign caliphate.
00:32:11.000 Or go mugless for $9 a month between now and election.
00:32:15.000 That helps too.
00:32:16.000 I know that you have $9 a month.
00:32:17.000 We do not have a Patreon.
00:32:18.000 Though Gerald does have an OnlyFans. 0.73
00:32:20.000 And the issue here is that the media...
00:32:23.000 Don't worry.
00:32:24.000 It's like it's a PG OnlyFans.
00:32:25.000 It's really weird.
00:32:26.000 It's just him watching Disney movies.
00:32:28.000 The media is...
00:32:31.000 Lying again.
00:32:32.000 We can make that claim, but everyone does from time to time.
00:32:35.000 Even Press Secretary Nick DiPaolo knows that.
00:32:38.000 Are you saying that the President of the United States has never lied to the public before?
00:32:49.000 Never lied in a follow-up?
00:32:52.000 Are you saying that the President of the United States has never lied to the public before? 0.99
00:32:56.000 What the f***? 0.99
00:32:57.000 Translator? 0.99