In this episode, we take a deep dive into CNN's latest poll numbers and discuss whether or not Donald Trump is losing his core base of non-college educated white voters to the Democrats. We also discuss why this might not be so bad, and what we can do about it.
00:00:28.000If you're watching on Rumble and YouTube, usually this is a Mug Club, well really only on Mug Club, but we do have some Mug Club exclusive data analysis because we've been putting a lot of work into it, paying a lot of the dough.
00:00:45.000I'm looking at, specifically, some data that we see right now on whether Trump, there's been some concern Donald Trump is losing his base.
00:00:54.000And we're going to be talking about that and looking at these swing states and the polls.
00:00:57.000Again, there's a lot of good news, but you are being sold some information that may not be entirely correct as it relates to some key swing states.
00:01:05.000The good news is there's something that you can do about it.
00:01:07.000So before we get into it, let me ask you, which blue states are part of the blue wall do you think President Trump is most likely to end up flipping?
00:02:24.000The truth is, that's kind of a marvel that, you know, obviously he's a man who, he's no stranger to the weights, and that's hard to make quite apparent when you are that pale.
00:02:50.000So, we wanted to get into this because we're hearing a lot of claims made out there, both on the left and on the right.
00:02:55.000And it's easy to get nerdy but also lose the bigger picture.
00:02:58.000And a lot of people will tell you, hey, don't try and compare this to other elections because everything is changing very rapidly.
00:03:04.000I think there's some truth to that, but there's a difference between that and being disingenuous in making comparisons in order to try and make one side feel as though defeat is imminent.
00:03:17.000They are not pulling apples to apples comparisons, and we actually have had our team here pour through the data to be able to make that comparison.
00:03:25.000Because CNN wants you to believe that an entire segment on the fact that Donald Trump is losing his core base, non-college educated white voters.
00:03:37.000We've seen so many groups this year moving in Donald Trump's direction.
00:03:41.000So you would think his core group, his base of support would be doing the same.
00:03:45.000But in fact, it's moving a little bit away from him.
00:03:47.000So this is Trump's march with non-college white voters.
00:03:50.000Unlike most voting blocs, this group is not moving towards him.
00:03:54.000So you go back eight years ago, he won him by 33.
00:03:57.000You go back four years ago, he won him by 31.
00:04:01.000Now what we look is we see that in the latest average of polls, he's only up by 27.
00:04:07.000Now that may not seem like a lot, but given that we're seeing these double-digit gains, say among black voters or among Hispanic voters in some of the polls, the fact that we're seeing this core group of supporters actually moving away from him, not just off of the 2016 baseline, but the 2020 baseline as well, I think that's a rather interesting development.
00:04:27.000Now, multiple problems with his analysis there, which we will get to, not the least of which, by the way, is, to be fair, it can be quite hard to poll non-college-educated white voters.
00:06:10.000But we all know that the silent Trump voter is a real thing, and they don't tend to answer as heavily in polls as other voters.
00:06:17.000And we'll get into that a little later on.
00:06:19.000And by the way, when people say that Republicans outperform polls, what they mean to say, because you'll always get someone on the left saying, oh, that's not what happened in the midterms.
00:07:49.000And that number, when you look at that, comparing 2020, putting vocational schools or those who have attended them into that subset, 2020 compared to now, Trump is actually up 1.2% with all non-college educated people in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
00:08:19.000And the reason for that, I believe, Lane, is that no one has done it.
00:08:22.000No, I mean, we looked through every polling source that we could find and we ended up settling mostly with Emerson because their crosstabs are the most detailed.
00:08:29.000And it does not include the specific category of white non-college educated voters.
00:08:33.000Again, why Enten doesn't just share where he's getting that information from, I'm not quite sure.
00:08:37.000It would be very easy for him to do so.
00:08:50.000And I would actually, based on all the data we have available to us, again, if we were to look at crosstabs of white voters versus, let's say, black voters, you would imagine that white non-college educated voters would be slightly higher than the overall 1.2% overperformance compared to 2020.
00:09:08.000It makes sense to see that kind of downward shift from 2016 to 2020 because you have a white dude that resonated with a lot of kind of the old school Union Democrats.
00:09:18.000Kamala's not resonating with old school Union Democrats, mostly because they wouldn't even endorse her.
00:09:33.000So at this point, when this man is telling you in CNN, and you are seeing this, unfortunately, then parroted across other platforms as though it is gospel.
00:09:41.000Kind of like when you're talking about the Nazi comment, talking about the effing Mexican comment.
00:09:46.000One person said something one time, and then everyone else thinks it's legitimate.
00:09:49.000This is actually some pretty good news, but it seems like the left may just be flat out lying about Donald Trump.
00:09:56.000Again, like they do, by the way, in all of their political ads.
00:09:59.000Add it! *laughter* Hey there, I'm Colonel Slanders, here to talk to you about Donald Trump.
00:10:08.000That Yankee's got a little too big for his britches.
00:10:11.000But don't worry, because he's no bigger than a minnow in a fishing pond.
00:10:14.000Hey, did you know that he called our fallen soldiers losers and suckers?
00:10:19.000Well, as a Southerner, this offends me more than oven-baked chicken or mixed marriages.
00:10:24.000And if you're taking your juicy, savory God-blessed chicken and baking it in the oven, then you, my friend, are the loser and or the sucker, because sure as hell ain't finger-licking good.
00:11:07.000Good news is, it's a problem that you can directly affect.
00:11:11.000So, the RCP average that we see right now has Kamala ahead, and you can correct me if I'm wrong on anything, Lane, has Kamala ahead by 0.2%.
00:11:34.000In all those polls, it's plus two or three, I believe.
00:11:37.000I don't believe there's one in the last four that's plus one.
00:11:39.000I think it's either two or three in those polls.
00:11:41.000One more poll and that number goes away.
00:11:43.000And here's where the overperformance that you see from Donald Trump in polls historically, assuming, by the way, that maybe, maybe pollsters haven't gotten it 100% right.
00:11:52.000We've been told that they have at this point, so you can trust them.
00:11:55.000And this is just one tool that you have available to you.
00:12:29.000That means Donald Trump wins the popular vote by two points.
00:12:32.000It means that, yes, the popular vote is well within reach at this point.
00:12:36.000That's one where I think the betting odds might actually be wrong a little bit because everyone has said, well, he's not going to lose the popular vote.
00:12:42.000Yeah, they just assume it's going to happen.
00:12:43.000Can you imagine the meltdown of Trump, like, way overperformed in California and won the popular vote but ended up losing the Electoral College?
00:13:44.000So, again, it's too early to make all of these judgments, but we can certainly make the judgment that that guy in CNN likely full of crap, right?
00:14:11.000So let's look at the early voting here, 2020 versus now.
00:14:15.000And Lane, make sure you kind of provide some context here, because some people may have a tough time with the sources that we are going to be giving to you, looking at the crosstabs and the references.
00:14:25.000So we're pulling all the data from all available references and then looking at what best represents where we are right now, which is 12 days out from the election.
00:14:36.000So all these early voting kind of statistics that we're going to see are comparing to the same 12 days out and voting in 2020.
00:14:45.000And that's important because what you were talking about earlier, there's a difference in basically comparing polling before an election and then Exit points.
00:16:33.000A good way to look at this, and I think when people use point, like the term point swing, 16-point swing, whatever, it's kind of hard to digest, but if you just think about it like in basketball or something, and the home team is down by five, and they hit a three-pointer.
00:16:46.000Well, there's been a three-point swing in favor of the home team, but they're still down by three.
00:16:50.000What happened in North Carolina is they hit enough shots that they're actually ahead now.
00:18:45.000I think that's a huge point for us right now, because there's a lot of ground we can gain.
00:18:49.000Yesterday, we took a chat from somebody saying, ah, people just don't vote because they think Chicago and Illinois is going to carry the state.
00:19:23.000And they've been leading from the beginning of early voting, and the reason that that, again, context matters, Republicans never led in the early voting in 2020.
00:19:34.000Actually, Republicans always lead early voting, and they try and say Democrats led mail-in voting, Republicans led early voting.
00:19:39.000Well, there wasn't as much of a gap, and it kind of goes state to state, but in Arizona, definitively, Republicans never led early voting in 2020 at all.
00:20:24.000And here's a really messed up point, and I know that some of you are screaming at your screen right now, or if you're driving at your phone, eyes on the road.
00:20:31.000Arizona has now claimed that it will take them likely 10 to 13 days to tabulate results.
00:20:39.000County leaders are asking voters for patience and to be prepared.
00:20:44.000Tight races, high interest in the election, and a two-page ballot are leaving Maricopa County officials warning of lines on election day and also warning it's going to take them 10 to 13 days to tabulate results.
00:20:56.000And by the way, of course, any interference or the steel is a figment of your imagination.
00:21:01.000Sorry, at the last election in Maricopa County, I believe it was, you couldn't vote for about four hours, which, if you work for a living, maybe means you can't vote.
00:21:10.000And by the way, yes, we do have more technology available to us than ever before.
00:21:13.000But it's not going to be like previous elections where we didn't have said technology, and you know the results that night.
00:21:18.000It's going to take a week and a half to two weeks, which, by the way, Should occur in no world if Republicans are leading the early voting.
00:22:51.000Because there are a lot of just, I don't know if you know this, there are a lot of black voters in Georgia, a lot of black men in Georgia, which may be why, you know, 50% of Georgia men supported Biden, 28% not supporting Kamala.
00:25:04.000And Republicans have slightly less at 3.6 million registered voters, but that is a positive trend of 156,000 more at the same point in 2020.
00:25:13.000So that's good, but the raw number is still favoring Democrats.
00:25:46.000So put this next point as simply as possible, Lane, for the folks out there going, give me the number here.
00:25:52.000Right, so we saw that we've closed the gap, but we still have a smaller, raw number of registered voters.
00:25:59.000So if all things remain the same, and the same percentage of registered voters for both parties turn out in 2024 as compared to 2020, Republicans will win.
00:26:10.000But only by 58,000 votes or less than 1%.
00:26:14.000Which, if we know how Democrats operate and they see the number 58,000, well, they have a bunch of voters that they're leaving on the table.
00:26:22.000And I think there's plenty of methods that they might use to get them on the table.
00:26:26.000And that's the concern that some people have with early voting, is it gives you just sort of, okay, this is what you need to close that gap.
00:26:33.000I'm hoping that we see a higher, again, voter turnout, because in some states it's been outpacing even registrations.
00:26:38.000So here's kind of some analysis that we've done, obviously, that paints a very clear picture of do not take anything for granted in Pennsylvania at all.
00:26:49.000I think baked into that, I hope there is a larger percentage of those new registered voters that are going to turn out for Republicans based on the work that Scott Pressler has done.
00:27:43.000They could overperform that in Pennsylvania, certainly, especially when you have Josh Shapiro.
00:27:48.000Again, it could also be tough because it's the highest...
00:27:51.000I don't want to get too far off and speculate, but the highest, I believe, percentage of the Jewish vote in the Midwest, of any of the Midwestern states, I believe Pennsylvania.
00:28:40.000Donald Trump's base is pretty damn similar, solid, if not slightly better when you're talking about non-college voters at this point, if you include vocational schools.
00:29:38.000I'm talking about any of you have a platform.
00:29:40.000If it's social media, if you have a YouTube channel, if you have a podcast, if you have friends, if you have a social group, if you want to go out and volunteer to be a poll watcher, you want to go...
00:31:03.000Still, there's a lot you can do, and the numbers look good at this point in time.
00:31:07.000And by the way, you can expect Not only this, but a whole lot more on election night.
00:31:11.000I mean, I don't even know if we're going to have space in this office because we are going to have the live electoral integrity map.
00:31:15.000Again, based on the data and the analysis that we exclusively have available here where you will actually be able to see states, see progress, see disputes.
00:31:23.000If the media calls it with just getting an update, Fox News called Arizona with actually it looks 0.0002%.