Louder with Crowder - Kamala’s Media Blitz Ends in Disaster & Major Swing State Polling Update

00:00:02.000 And now for a message from Paco, the friendly homophobe.

00:00:06.000 That's me. Okay, thank you, ma'am.

00:00:08.000 You can pass on through.

00:00:09.000 Alright, next. Come on up.

00:00:12.000 Hands out. Legs open.

00:00:15.000 Okay, come through.

00:00:17.000 Please hold. Alright, sir, do you mind if I pat down your right leg and inner thigh? 0.83

00:00:22.000 You don't know what you have to do.

00:00:25.000 It's your job, I understand.

00:00:27.000 Yeah, thank you very much.

00:00:28.000 So I'm going to pat here...

00:00:30.000 But I know that you don't have to do.

00:00:33.000 What do you mean, sir?

00:00:35.000 I saw the other guy.

00:00:36.000 He told you I was okay to clearly go through.

00:00:39.000 But you are the one who told me you still have to pat my leg.

00:00:43.000 I don't follow.

00:00:45.000 You are patting my leg because you want to.

00:00:49.000 Not because it is your job.

00:00:52.000 And you want to pat my leg.

00:00:53.000 Unlike the blonde before me, nice lady, you let pass through without any pat down. 1.00

00:01:00.000 Because you are not straight.

00:01:03.000 Join Mug Club today for $89 annually or try it mugless for $9 a month.

00:01:07.000 You can sign up at ladderwithcreditor.com slash mug club for the entire catalog including 100% more of this show

00:01:14.000 show.

00:01:21.000 Yeah, sure.

00:01:50.000 Picture the sip.

00:01:51.000 The hell's the difference? Theater of the mind.

00:01:59.000 Yes, yes. Sponsorship charge me to send out the...

00:02:04.000 Okay, yeah. It's not a sponsor anymore.

00:02:08.000 Glad to be with you.

00:02:10.000 We're going to discuss...

00:02:12.000 Look, Kamala Harris, Kamala, don't care, was on The View in Colbert yesterday. 1.00

00:02:17.000 We did the simul stream of Howard Stern.

00:02:19.000 And by the way, Best Among Us, please subscribe to SiriusXM Radio for the unfiltered, uncut, pure Howard 100.

00:02:27.000 SiriusXM, they need it.

00:02:29.000 Yes. SiriusXM, the internet's a fad.

00:02:33.000 And we'll be talking about swing states.

00:02:37.000 And here's the thing. Looking into some data here...

00:02:41.000 Again, I've been telling you, don't listen to the doomsday theorists out there.

00:02:44.000 There's a lot of good news.

00:02:46.000 And I'm not just talking about the polymarket trend.

00:02:48.000 I'm talking about key trends in each swing state.

00:02:51.000 Some of them may surprise you.

00:02:52.000 Comment below what you think the key trend, for example, may be in Nevada, in North Carolina, in Georgia.

00:02:58.000 There are some numbers here that are fundamental restructuring of the electoral map.

00:03:02.000 Also, the future of hockey is female, we're told.

00:03:06.000 So you know at some point today as we discuss it, you'll probably see this on YouTube.

00:03:12.000 Head to Rumble. It's a live show.

00:03:14.000 Weekdays, 10 a.m. Eastern, but on Friday only if you're a member of Mug Club.

00:03:18.000 I apologize. I shouldn't be that angry.

00:03:21.000 Well, you're hurting. Early on.

00:03:23.000 Your back is a little messed up.

00:03:25.000 Don't tell people. You don't profess your weaknesses out loud.

00:03:28.000 You know that. You're a Christian.

00:03:29.000 The devil can hear you say it. I'm afraid of the dark. 0.90

00:03:31.000 I don't think that's how it works. Josh.

00:03:34.000 Oh, shoot. It slipped. Joshua.

00:03:36.000 Spiders. Sorry.

00:03:40.000 Now it seems like you're teasing him.

00:03:43.000 A little bit. I'm doing well.

00:03:46.000 How are you? I'm not afraid of spiders.

00:03:47.000 I just don't like them. That's not 100% true.

00:03:51.000 That is 99% true.

00:03:53.000 He kills dozens of spiders.

00:03:55.000 My wife is afraid of spiders. 0.98

00:03:57.000 She won't even kill them. Yes, I will kill them, but I don't like spiders crawling up on me if I don't know where they are. 0.85

00:04:03.000 I don't think that's an irrational fear. 1.00

00:04:05.000 If I see a spider, I will kill it. 0.95

00:04:08.000 I do it regularly. 1.00

00:04:09.000 I still hate them.

00:04:11.000 And you're afraid of it. You comment.

00:04:12.000 Is that a fear? Is that a fear?

00:04:14.000 For example, if a spider is in the pool that can walk across water like it's Jesus spider at your face level, and you're like, oh, that kind of gives me the creeps.

00:04:24.000 Is that a fear? I don't think I need to go through some type of therapy.

00:04:28.000 That made me go, oh, maybe he's afraid of this.

00:04:30.000 It was right next to my face.

00:04:35.000 That's it. I'm putting spiders in Gerald's office.

00:04:38.000 Let's see how he deals with it.

00:04:41.000 Let's put a pit viper. 0.99

00:04:42.000 What are you afraid? All right.

00:04:47.000 Spiders make sense. I do have a nautically themed office for some reason.

00:04:52.000 All right. And when you hear this, you know me love him.

00:04:56.000 October 26th, Bricktown Comedy Club, Oklahoma City.

00:04:59.000 Not afraid of spiders. How are you, Josh?

00:05:01.000 Not afraid of spiders, dude.

00:05:02.000 Dude, I'm not afraid of them.

00:05:04.000 And I don't hate them either.

00:05:05.000 I'm not a bigot.

00:05:07.000 I got over my fear of roller coasters when I was a kid.

00:05:10.000 And then I kept doing it and I just kept getting sick and realized that why am I paying someone $100 a day to make me feel like I'm going to die?

00:05:16.000 It's true. So I don't do them anymore.

00:05:18.000 I still don't like them.

00:05:20.000 I still don't like them, but I'm not afraid of them.

00:05:23.000 Okay, I'm a little afraid of them. All right.

00:05:25.000 I'll tell you what I'm afraid of.

00:05:27.000 Hurricanes? Female coaches. 1.00

00:05:29.000 Now. Finally, hockey got good.

00:05:33.000 This is before we get to Kamala Harris and everything that you care about.

00:05:36.000 The Seattle Kraken, they made what they're now referring to as Herstory.

00:05:43.000 They made Herstory when they became the first NHL team to feature a woman coach. 0.97

00:05:51.000 And then he's making history with his staff as well.

00:05:55.000 Jessica Campbell, the first female full-time NHL assistant coach behind the bench in the opener for the crowd.

00:06:02.000 I wouldn't mind having her in the locker room.

00:06:04.000 She started playing college hockey at Cornell before winning multiple medals in international play with Team Canada.

00:06:09.000 She worked her way up as a coach, eventually landing in the AHL's Coachella Valley alongside Bilesma. 0.95

00:06:14.000 And she has said while she is honored to be the first, she does not plan on being the last gentleman.

00:06:19.000 Well, that's out of her control. 1.00

00:06:21.000 She'd plan on being the last.

00:06:23.000 It'd be weird if she did plan on being the last.

00:06:25.000 Yeah, but just don't say anything.

00:06:27.000 You don't have control over all of population earth female. 1.00

00:06:32.000 And by the way, this is, of course, has always happened.

00:06:34.000 She's accomplished nothing yet, but the film rights have already been licensed with the soon-to-be-released semi-autobiographical raunch comedy Snatch Shot.

00:06:42.000 So that's one that seems that...

00:06:44.000 Oh, come on. People on...

00:06:49.000 People on audio. You should go to video.

00:06:52.000 And we actually do have...

00:06:53.000 See, here's the thing. It's like Ocean's 8.

00:06:55.000 It's just lazy. Oh, yeah, that's right.

00:06:56.000 They're just taking a guy thing and then calling it a woman thing. 1.00

00:07:00.000 And we have a sneak peek.

00:07:01.000 That seems like that's what they've done with Slapshot.

00:07:03.000 It's a bit of a play.

00:07:10.000 Come on, what's he got left? Behind the net!

00:07:17.000 What's behind the net? Behind the net!

00:07:18.000 Hey, Herman! She's genderqueer! 1.00

00:07:21.000 I'm proud! I'm proud!

00:07:24.000 See, that's just...

00:07:26.000 Paul Newman wouldn't want that.

00:07:28.000 No. Paul Newman wouldn't do that.

00:07:30.000 No, he wouldn't do that. He was all about ranch comms and making ranch.

00:07:34.000 Ranch comms and ranch.

00:07:36.000 He made ranch comms. And Newman owes, which are actually better than the real Oreos.

00:07:42.000 Really? I don't believe that.

00:07:43.000 Yes, well... That's a lie.

00:07:45.000 That is fake news. Misinformation.

00:07:48.000 I got my foot caught up in my...

00:07:50.000 And my headphone wires...

00:07:51.000 Hey! You okay, buddy? Here's the thing.

00:07:53.000 There's nothing... The reason that it's an issue...

00:07:55.000 And, you know, Mission Control Fact Check me.

00:07:57.000 I think, if I'm not mistaken...

00:07:58.000 And by that, I mean I'm not mistaken.

00:08:01.000 If you're the best female hockey player who's ever lived at Cornell, you still have yet to take a hip check through the boards. 1.00

00:08:12.000 I don't know. Well, maybe she's not the physical fighting coach. 0.55

00:08:33.000 Did they have one of those? Does Pops Crowder got a side job as the fighting coach?

00:08:36.000 It's the reason that no one complains about a female curling coach or shuffleboard or whatever the hell it is. 1.00

00:08:42.000 But if it's not the same sport in physicality, you do not understand the absolute terror in which these men wake up.

00:08:52.000 And confirmed, no, it is not a physical contact at court.

00:08:55.000 No. You know what I used to do when I was at Cornell?

00:08:59.000 Why don't you do it like this?

00:09:01.000 Yeah, I would, except I lose my eyebrow tissue.

00:09:07.000 Gotta keep those brows. Kinda changes the whole dynamic.

00:09:10.000 Pop Scroider played hockey.

00:09:11.000 He played hockey at a pretty high level.

00:09:13.000 He will tell you, like, yeah, it's gotten really, really beautiful hockey now.

00:09:16.000 Hyperly technical. But you know what stops that pretty...

00:09:18.000 Is two palms right to the chest.

00:09:20.000 It's a great equalizer.

00:09:22.000 If you're not as technical, you can be physical.

00:09:24.000 If you don't have to take that into account, you can just coach people.

00:09:26.000 Well, you know what? Why don't you just go out?

00:09:27.000 Why don't you just do a wrist shot? 0.98

00:09:30.000 Oh! Is that all? 0.90

00:09:32.000 Did you try talking to him?

00:09:33.000 Did you try... Did you try the Bombay triple deke?

00:09:40.000 The deke? No, dude.

00:09:42.000 It's a hard move. I'm sure she's great.

00:09:43.000 It's three deeks. I'm sure she's great.

00:09:45.000 Good for her. And you know what? I bet you it's not lost on her.

00:09:47.000 But it's the women. It's the feminist writers out there who are like, well, why? 1.00

00:09:50.000 What's the problem with it? Imagine someone coaching.

00:09:53.000 Like football, because a lot of you may not follow hockey.

00:09:55.000 Coaching football in the NFL, a woman who played a sport where there was, like she only played flag football. 0.90

00:10:00.000 Yeah, exactly. Do you think that maybe she would have less to offer than someone who has three fractured vertebrae because they played against Warren Sapp?

00:10:08.000 Did you hit him back?

00:10:09.000 No. No, no, no, no.

00:10:12.000 We use our words.

00:10:14.000 She's the one that makes up all the new game plans.

00:10:18.000 Her new flying V will surprise you.

00:10:22.000 It's not the V you thought.

00:10:23.000 All right. Not to mention when she's three knucklepucks deep. 1.00

00:10:26.000 Now! We!

00:10:27.000 Whoa! She's a lesbian. 1.00

00:10:33.000 Speaking of words... 0.94

00:10:35.000 We know that none of you read Legacy Media anymore, at least the mainstream stuff.

00:10:39.000 But we don't want you to miss out on it.

00:10:41.000 So we have done this segment and they've gotten progressively worse.

00:10:45.000 These are actual news articles.

00:10:47.000 And sometimes the producers here, they put this together because they want to make me angry.

00:10:53.000 It's time for three headlines.

00:10:55.000 Extra, extra, meet all about it!

00:10:57.000 🎵 I want to get one of those goofy organs that makes all

00:11:12.000 those sounds.

00:11:13.000 And you just get a keyboard. Pullies and handles and...

00:11:15.000 You just get a keyboard. You can do all of it.

00:11:17.000 Oh, that's true. Yeah. Yeah, but it sounds fun.

00:11:19.000 All right. We'll put in a budget for a keyboard.

00:11:24.000 Nice Casio. You want to synthesize that?

00:11:26.000 Yeah, that was easy.

00:11:28.000 Yeah, I'll take that too. One of those things that make the music from your mouth.

00:11:32.000 That one. Kazoo? Kazoo. 0.60

00:11:33.000 Alright. Flutophone.

00:11:35.000 Third place this week.

00:11:37.000 From the Los Angeles Times.

00:11:39.000 All references available so you know this is real.

00:11:44.000 Vincent Frederick Colombo on reframing Creole identity with a unisex approach.

00:11:49.000 Okay. I don't know if I understand.

00:11:51.000 That's an actual thing. What does that mean?

00:11:53.000 Well, that's because you understate the importance of Creole identity, Gerald.

00:11:58.000 With a unisex approach, though.

00:12:00.000 Yes. That's the twist.

00:12:01.000 Which is important to Creole culture.

00:12:02.000 Well, how else would you approach it?

00:12:04.000 I don't know. That's my point.

00:12:06.000 My bisexual approach.

00:12:07.000 Who do you? That doesn't sound right either.

00:12:10.000 Here's an excerpt from it.

00:12:13.000 With the brand, Frederick Columbo has been able to, quote, reframe Creole identity. 0.55

00:12:18.000 Well, I'm glad they finally got around to that.

00:12:21.000 Through designs that serve as a connection point between the past and the future.

00:12:25.000 And you know what? I often think, hey...

00:12:28.000 It's high time. The future is Creole. 1.00

00:12:30.000 Is it? Utilizing elements like the Pan-African flag and queering classic silhouettes like workwear into something that feels unique to Frederick Colombo's story.

00:12:41.000 What? The past and the future.

00:12:43.000 Well, I'm glad that Frederick is looking to the future so we can serve our overlords in 1980 Creole.

00:12:51.000 Which is...

00:12:52.000 This is not a great...

00:12:59.000 I love it.

00:13:01.000 By the way, who is Frederick Colombo?

00:13:03.000 It sounds like a 16th century explorer.

00:13:05.000 He is an expert in the Creole future.

00:13:08.000 Okay, well, I wouldn't know.

00:13:10.000 Hey, you know what? I don't know. The Creole's been waiting for a future for a very long time. 1.00

00:13:14.000 It's not come. What does the Pan-African flag have to do with any of this?

00:13:18.000 Gerald, it's the three headlines segment.

00:13:21.000 Don't take it so seriously.

00:13:24.000 I think we have to see this.

00:13:25.000 I'm digging deeply into this.

00:13:28.000 There's your visionary appearance.

00:13:30.000 Hold on, hold on.

00:13:33.000 That is not a unisex approach. 0.98

00:13:34.000 That is absolutely a gay approach. 0.97

00:13:36.000 There's a very gay, male-gay approach. 0.97

00:13:39.000 Well, he should go down to Haiti next time there's an earthquake and hand out queer mesh tank tops. 1.00

00:13:45.000 Here, put this on. You would look so fabulous in the hurricane.

00:13:48.000 We are going to eat you, and not in the way you want.

00:13:51.000 Oh my god. Here's another one.

00:13:53.000 This is second place.

00:13:54.000 Comes from Vox.

00:13:57.000 This popular sex trend is far more dangerous than you think.

00:14:01.000 Let me guess. Promiscuous sodomy? 1.00

00:14:03.000 It's true. No. 0.97

00:14:05.000 Here's the best excerpt from it.

00:14:06.000 For young women and gender diverse folks...

00:14:10.000 Folks. Fan fiction comes up a lot.

00:14:14.000 If you go back 10 to 15 years, there's a lot of very graphic one-direction fan fiction where people were imagining Harry Styles and his bandmates choking each other and being super kinky together.

00:14:26.000 I don't know how much fiction there is.

00:14:28.000 Did the previous guy write this one, too?

00:14:32.000 They're all just going in different directions, it sounds like.

00:14:35.000 I don't know. It could be more of like a centrifuge.

00:14:37.000 No, we have a picture of this author, too.

00:14:39.000 We do? Yep. Here you go. Let's see a picture.

00:14:42.000 Yeah, that lady's totally sane. 1.00

00:14:44.000 Here's the thing. As gross as that woman is, on the inside, this is what a lot of women don't understand or appreciate as far as the dynamic between the sexes. 1.00

00:14:54.000 She could walk out of her house, apartment, whatever she's subletting, sharing. 0.99

00:15:00.000 In 12 minutes...

00:15:03.000 Could sleep with a strange man.

00:15:04.000 That woman still would find it incredibly easy to arrive at coitus. 1.00

00:15:10.000 In other words, you don't need to bring a whole lot to the table, which is why you write crap like this. 0.93

00:15:15.000 Here's the first place. New York Times, the paper of record. 0.97

00:15:20.000 Who gets to be a daddy? 0.89

00:15:22.000 The best compliment a man, gay or straight, old or not so old, can receive is to enter the pantheon of daddies. 0.82

00:15:31.000 What? Yes, the pantheon of gay daddies. 1.00

00:15:34.000 Who can forget this? What can you hold to that person? 0.99

00:15:40.000 Bruce Valanche.

00:15:43.000 Why does Bruce Valanche look like the costume designer from The Incredibles?

00:15:47.000 This is... This is...

00:15:50.000 Think about this. This is the New York Times.

00:15:52.000 And these are the people who say, ugh, podcasters, ugh, bloggers.

00:15:57.000 New York Times, this is what you put out there.

00:15:59.000 And you know what? Fine. Whatever.

00:16:00.000 I don't care. Here's an excerpt.

00:16:02.000 It says, if you're called a daddy in gay culture or out of a car window...

00:16:06.000 What? What?

00:16:10.000 Where does that happen, by the way? Here's the thing that I don't like.

00:16:12.000 I don't like that these degenerates write about their gross subcultures that were once relegated, you know, to the locker rooms or to the bathhouses, lest they get their ass kicked, figuratively or physically. 0.98

00:16:23.000 And now just assuming, like, we're out of the know, like we're not hip if we don't know about the newest grimy gay subculture, how about you just keep it off the front page? 1.00

00:16:34.000 Keep it off the pages! 0.92

00:16:37.000 Yeah, we keep catcalling off the pages, I think.

00:16:40.000 Yeah. Isn't that what catcalling or out of a car window?

00:16:42.000 Yeah, out of a car window. Well, if that was a woman, you'd be writing a pretty angry story, don't you think? 1.00

00:16:45.000 Well, here's the thing, though. It's not the catcalling that's the problem.

00:16:47.000 So if you're called daddy and gay culture out a car window, it's still largely a finger being pointed at your age.

00:16:52.000 Oh, no! At best, a way of indexing your sex appeal against your length of time on earth. 0.86

00:16:57.000 And almost always, implicitly, a way of saying, I'm young.

00:17:02.000 This is even true when young gay men use it as a flirtation device. 0.99

00:17:07.000 Okay, first off, there's not a lot of flirtation going on in the gay community, so much as basic asking.

00:17:16.000 There's not a lot of the dance of romance and seduction.

00:17:19.000 It's just, do you want it? Yep. Yep.

00:17:23.000 You don't need to flirt when it's two gay men. 0.98

00:17:26.000 Why? Because it's largely degenerate culture. 0.97

00:17:29.000 For proof, see the AIDS rates.

00:17:33.000 Another extra. A younger straight guy snatching the honorific over a gay co-star who is four years his senior is an indication of how murky and... 0.92

00:17:43.000 I just...

00:17:44.000 I just whatever this is this has been three headlines And for context when we're doing research for the show and

00:18:04.000 make all the references available we stumble across that stuff all the time

00:18:08.000 You're going like, hey, can we see the newest polling data?

00:18:10.000 Or, hey, can we see what's going on with the Katrina?

00:18:11.000 And you're like, what? I'm reading about gay Creole culture? 0.99

00:18:16.000 How is this pinned?

00:18:19.000 That's the DEI portion of these journalistic establishments.

00:18:25.000 And they get to be arbiters of truth, right?

00:18:28.000 They're considered authoritative sources.

00:18:31.000 How can you possibly be authoritative on gay Creole anything?

00:18:35.000 I can't imagine there's a consensus.

00:18:36.000 Right. I'm going to call misinformation on that, too, because I think the daddy thing isn't about being young and old.

00:18:41.000 I think the daddy thing is you want to have sex with a dad. 0.99

00:18:44.000 You want your dad. I think that's what that is. 1.00

00:18:46.000 Dude, it's weird. I don't like being called daddy.

00:18:47.000 A girl called me daddy once, and I said, you know what?

00:18:50.000 You want to call me daddy? I'll make it true.

00:18:51.000 I'll leave in the middle of the night like your real dad.

00:18:55.000 Aren't you wearing a shirt that says daddy in Spanish?

00:18:57.000 Well, sort of.

00:18:58.000 Daddy's.

00:18:59.000 It's my father's.

00:19:00.000 The papi.

00:19:01.000 No.

00:19:02.000 Not anymore.

00:19:03.000 I'm not going to do that.

00:19:10.000 No I'm not! What are you talking about, Steven? God dang it, dude! Man, he got you. Hey, Daddy! I'm helping him out!

00:19:26.000 He might be sending mixed signals.

00:19:29.000 Especially where's that in the gay community? 1.00

00:19:30.000 You know that crazy old half-Hispanic is going to show up. 1.00

00:19:35.000 Stay out of the gayborhood, Josh. 1.00

00:19:40.000 You'd have to move. 0.99

00:19:46.000 Gerald, you know I live in a gay Indian neighborhood. 0.98

00:19:49.000 I don't appreciate that. 0.97

00:19:50.000 That's right. They're coming for you, buddy.

00:19:52.000 It's gay adjacent. 0.98

00:19:53.000 Oh, no. Sorry. Sorry. All right. 0.66

00:19:57.000 Unintentional. Speaking of gay, Kamala Harris was on The View and on Stephen Colbert's show. 0.88

00:20:06.000 And you know what? Look. I don't think I've ever lost more respect for somebody in such a short amount of time. 0.97

00:20:12.000 Because Stephen Colbert was funny, and he sort of was under the umbrella of Jon Stewart, got the draft in behind him.

00:20:18.000 This program, his program, Stephen Colbert, is an example of claptor to a degree that I've never seen.

00:20:25.000 Like, they don't even attempt to be funny anymore.

00:20:27.000 And it really just borders on political propaganda.

00:20:30.000 But for those of you who missed it, this is part of the Kamala Harris strategy, right?

00:20:35.000 The Blitz, which, by the way, is not going well.

00:20:39.000 Please welcome back the next president of the United States.

00:20:46.000 There's a man there.

00:20:56.000 I guess tonight is the Democratic nominee for president of the United States.

00:21:01.000 Please welcome back to The Late Show, Vice President Kamala Harris.

00:21:09.000 Yay! So according to MSNBC, Kamala Harris silences critics with media blitz targeting key younger voters. 1.00

00:21:18.000 Silence no one.

00:21:20.000 Not according to Polly Market.

00:21:22.000 So, that's getting worse.

00:21:24.000 That's close to a seven-point spread at this point.

00:21:30.000 In other words, Kamala Harris, I talked about this, like, it's...

00:21:34.000 What does she do? 1.00

00:21:35.000 Like I said, she's going to have a bump, but she is going to find herself in her own personal hell. 1.00

00:21:39.000 Right now, I guarantee you, advisors are saying, hey, look, either we pull the Biden playbook, we go silent, try and whip up an October surprise and hope for the best, or she has to continue going through this blitz. 1.00

00:21:55.000 And every time she appears, her numbers get worse.

00:21:59.000 And the reason that's so important is because it's not about messaging.

00:22:03.000 It's not about perhaps not having the strongest ground game.

00:22:07.000 It means that Kamala Harris, her Achilles heel, is who she is.

00:22:13.000 It's her soul that people are rejecting.

00:22:15.000 You could not have a more personal rejection as a human being than what you are seeing with Kamala Harris.

00:22:22.000 That's tough. It almost makes me feel bad for her.

00:22:25.000 Almost. So, let me give you some of the highlights here, because yesterday we were doing the Howard Stern SimulStream, and the view was going on at that moment in time.

00:22:35.000 It's worse than we knew yesterday.

00:22:37.000 Yeah, because we talked about it just a little bit.

00:22:38.000 We talked about it. I didn't realize the question was asked twice.

00:22:41.000 So if you go back, remember everyone was saying, including on the right and then those on the left, if you look at the debates, they're saying it right now on ESPN or CNN, not a thing I'd do differently than Biden.

00:22:53.000 That's the quote. That's what they're saying here on CNN right now.

00:22:56.000 But before we arrived at this juncture, You saw Donald Trump, I believe we had Donald Trump Jr.

00:23:02.000 on the show, and people were saying, yeah, you know what, you just got to make sure that you flip that ticket.

00:23:06.000 Biden-Harris is basically Harris-Biden.

00:23:08.000 Everything that Biden has done, you make sure that you burden Kamala Harris with that, right?

00:23:13.000 you connect her to Joe Biden, so these last three and a half years are absolutely laid

00:23:18.000 at her feet.

00:23:19.000 Yeah.

00:23:20.000 And then the left was saying, and they have to make sure that they find a way, right,

00:23:23.000 Kamala Harris's campaign to distance herself from Biden and present her as refreshing and

00:23:28.000 an example of change.

00:23:29.000 So in other words, this is not something that is in dispute.

00:23:33.000 Everyone knew that the right strategy was to tie her to Biden.

00:23:37.000 And a key facet of the left strategy would have to involve untying her, untangling her 1.00

00:23:43.000 from the Biden disastrous presidency.

00:23:45.000 Because if they don't do that, then Donald Trump can just contrast, right?

00:23:48.000 Like we've always said, you have eight years of Obama, four years of Donald Trump, and

00:23:51.000 another three and a half years of Biden.

00:23:53.000 One of these things is not like the other.

00:23:54.000 If you can simply swap out Biden for Harris, she loses.

00:23:58.000 But here's the thing.

00:24:00.000 What nobody expected from the left while they were trying to remove her from being associated

00:24:07.000 with Biden was her bringing him right back in.

00:24:10.000 Here you go. What do you think would be the biggest specific difference between your presidency and a Biden presidency?

00:24:20.000 Well, we're obviously two different people, and we have a lot of shared life experiences.

00:24:26.000 For example, the way we feel about our family and our parents and so on.

00:24:31.000 But we're also different people, and I will bring those sensibilities to how I lead.

00:24:37.000 You know, for example, I know we're going to talk today, but one of the things that we're very focused on is what we're doing around home health care.

00:24:42.000 I have done a lot of work as it relates to, sadly, violence against women and children.

00:24:45.000 I care a lot about that. It is unreal.

00:24:52.000 Ugh. And pause.

00:25:01.000 So, that's bad.

00:25:04.000 We are different people.

00:25:06.000 Well, no one's saying you're conjoined twins.

00:25:09.000 Where's Ben Carson when you need him?

00:25:10.000 Sunny Hostin decides, I'm going to give her a lifeline and just, she's trying to help her.

00:25:15.000 Give her a layup. Okay, but now I'm going to give it to you again, right?

00:25:19.000 You're not Joe Biden.

00:25:21.000 Watch your answer. Something differently than President Biden during the past four years.

00:25:28.000 There is not a thing that comes to mind in terms of and I've been a part of

00:25:32.000 Most of the decisions that have had impact Every member of the view wanted to do at that moment

00:25:45.000 Exactly. They look for a window to jump out of.

00:25:48.000 Whoopi was like, take me back to Hollywood Squares.

00:25:50.000 Yes. That's a great impression, by the way.

00:25:56.000 I don't think there's ever been a worse candidate as far as now.

00:25:59.000 I mean, there have been people who've been in worse situations.

00:26:02.000 Like, John McCain wasn't a good candidate.

00:26:04.000 Mitt Romney wasn't a good candidate.

00:26:05.000 Bob Dole wasn't a very good candidate.

00:26:07.000 John Kerry was not a good candidate.

00:26:09.000 This is the worst presidential candidate, I think.

00:26:12.000 And by the way, that includes Biden.

00:26:13.000 You can comment below if you disagree, and I'll get to the swing states in a bit.

00:26:17.000 That's not...

00:26:18.000 Not only...

00:26:20.000 It's not a presidential answer.

00:26:22.000 It's not even an answer at all.

00:26:24.000 It's just a generic yearbook comment.

00:26:30.000 Yes, don't ever change There's not much else to know

00:26:40.000 You can go and watch the whole thing at The View.

00:26:41.000 Let's go to Colbert. All right.

00:26:43.000 Same exact question.

00:26:46.000 And the crazy thing to me is...

00:26:49.000 The pre-fab, the answer that's so bad is a premeditated answer.

00:26:54.000 Yeah. She actually, one of her talking points is, well, we are two different human beings.

00:26:59.000 Like, that's her answer.

00:27:01.000 Here, watch her say the same thing with Colbert.

00:27:03.000 You are a member of the president of the administration.

00:27:06.000 Under a Harris administration, what would the major changes be, and what would stay the same?

00:27:13.000 Sure. Well, I mean, I'm obviously not Joe Biden.

00:27:16.000 And so that would be one change in terms of...

00:27:20.000 But also, I think it's important to say with 28 days to go, I'm not Donald Trump.

00:27:26.000 And so when we think about the significance of what this next generation of leadership looks like, were I to be elected president, it is about, frankly, I love the American people.

00:27:39.000 And I believe in our country.

00:27:41.000 I... I love that it is our character and nature to be an ambitious people.

00:27:48.000 You know, we have aspirations.

00:27:50.000 We have dreams.

00:27:52.000 We have incredible work ethic.

00:27:55.000 And I just believe that we can create and build upon the success we've achieved in a way that we continue to grow opportunity.

00:28:08.000 Wake up! What happened?

00:28:15.000 Do you want to take this, Jill?

00:28:16.000 Anything to offer? Here's all I'll say.

00:28:21.000 Nobody cleaned her up between interviews. 0.98

00:28:23.000 Nobody said, you know, like, hey, hey, hey, can you do me a favor and maybe say, you know what, I love a lot of the stuff that we accomplished, but I'm a different person and I'll do some things maybe a little bit differently than Joe Biden because of blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.

00:28:35.000 Nobody got to her to tell her that this is a really bad answer to go...

00:28:40.000 Aspirations! Yeah, yeah.

00:28:42.000 Black men can't stand her. 1.00

00:28:43.000 No. We'll get to those numbers in a little bit. 0.99

00:28:45.000 It's that non-stop nagging.

00:28:47.000 I mean, it's very...

00:28:48.000 It's frowned upon in African-American, people of color, culture, a woman who is nagging and shrill and never answers anything. 1.00

00:28:58.000 Bill Whitaker showed us that. He was severely annoyed.

00:29:01.000 Who hired her staffers? 1.00

00:29:03.000 Joe Biden? Like, who's her advisors?

00:29:05.000 Like... This will get her. 1.00

00:29:07.000 If she was somebody that worked for me, and I had asked her questions, and she answered me consistently like that, I would end up throwing things at the wall.

00:29:14.000 I would be so frustrated. She's the person, like you were saying, you would avoid at a party.

00:29:17.000 Yeah. Oh, dude. Yeah.

00:29:19.000 Because you think she's cool, right?

00:29:20.000 She's laughing. She's telling a story like, oh, that's good.

00:29:22.000 And then you get over there, and you're like, what are you talking about?

00:29:25.000 Right. Yeah. And she won't let you leave.

00:29:28.000 No, I've got to tell you about my father and my uncle and my nephew and me and my husband.

00:29:32.000 We went to a baseball game and we saw the Spurs play the Packers.

00:29:36.000 What are you talking about?

00:29:38.000 No, but I need all of your attention and energy this entire evening.

00:29:43.000 Because I don't want to be alone.

00:29:45.000 So don't go socialize.

00:29:46.000 Just spend time with me.

00:29:47.000 Did I tell you about the time I drank the champagne of beers?

00:29:51.000 Oh my gosh. Oh, let's hear the story about it was a Sunday and you were making pancakes and your niece was over.

00:29:56.000 Yeah, exactly. You're trying to get hammered to forget you were a vice president.

00:29:59.000 Trying to sell you antimicrobial socks as part of a pyramid scheme.

00:30:04.000 It's like, hurry up and get it over with.

00:30:06.000 Jimmy Carter's waiting to die for this. 0.99

00:30:08.000 Also, let's remind the American people you're a drunk. 0.99

00:30:11.000 Yes, exactly. Because right now, Colbert's like, hey, the president's the person you'd want to have a beer with.

00:30:17.000 Fine. I mean, that's another thing to just gloss over, that Donald Trump doesn't touch drugs, never has.

00:30:21.000 He's been a teetotaler because his brother ruined his life with it, which, you know, he deserves some credit. 1.00

00:30:26.000 Yeah, what a dork. Drink and do drugs, kids. 1.00

00:30:29.000 Yeah, exactly. Dare?

00:30:31.000 Yeah, I double dog dare you to drink this beer.

00:30:34.000 And crappy beer, no offense.

00:30:36.000 Well, here is Kamala Harris showing you that she is just like... 1.00

00:30:42.000 Elections, I think, are one on vibes because one of the old saws is they just want somebody they can have a beer with.

00:30:48.000 So would you like to have a beer with me so I can tell people what that's like?

00:30:51.000 Vibes, not policy. Okay.

00:30:52.000 Yes. I'm just curious.

00:30:55.000 Okay, the last time I had beer was at a baseball game with Doug.

00:31:00.000 Okay, so cheers. There you go.

00:31:06.000 Watch this. Ooh.

00:31:09.000 That tastes like the beautiful city of Milwaukee, Wisconsin.

00:31:12.000 The champagne of beers. There you go.

00:31:14.000 Now I'm just saying slogans.

00:31:17.000 She read the can. More taste, less filling.

00:31:21.000 She didn't even say this. She read the slogan on the can.

00:31:24.000 Great taste. The champagne of beers.

00:31:27.000 Bud Light, the sure sign of a good time.

00:31:32.000 Is that what it is, or is it here we go?

00:31:33.000 This Bud's for you. They've had a ton of them.

00:31:35.000 This Bud's for you. Trans people love it.

00:31:39.000 All that stuff. And if she read it, she'd be confused.

00:31:41.000 Like, this Bud's for you.

00:31:43.000 Oh, sorry. And give it to Colbert.

00:31:44.000 Aw. Nothing about her.

00:31:48.000 That seems even remotely genuine.

00:31:52.000 Dude, if she had grabbed that beer and then stood up on the chair, pulled out a knife, and went... 1.00

00:31:59.000 I would be like, this chick just got my vote. 0.99

00:32:01.000 I don't even care, dude. I would be ashamed and I wouldn't even care.

00:32:04.000 I'd be like, dude, you gotta vote for the beer chug and shotgun lady. 1.00

00:32:07.000 Absolutely. A butt chug would win her Wisconsin. 1.00

00:32:09.000 Oh, I'd vote for her twice! 0.98

00:32:10.000 Lock it up! So...

00:32:14.000 Oh, great job, Billy!

00:32:20.000 Good timing there. The good news is that she finds herself in great company because the left really, for some reason, thinks that they relate to you through beer.

00:32:34.000 How often do you get to sneak out for a beer?

00:32:37.000 Very rarely. Everyone else around him is just scared to do their normal day.

00:32:42.000 But once in a while, I'll take Michelle out on a date night. 0.98

00:32:46.000 Stop staring at the black guy. 1.00

00:32:48.000 I think I killed himself just after that. 1.00

00:32:53.000 Thank you for being here.

00:32:54.000 Pleasure. He did too, by the way.

00:32:57.000 Enjoy your beer. Gretchen Whitmer. 0.97

00:33:00.000 Toast to you. Your new moon swive.

00:33:03.000 Mayor Pete. 0.99

00:33:06.000 Now you're all that monkey. 0.99

00:33:07.000 Drunk in public? Is he breaking the law? 0.98

00:33:10.000 That wasn't a beer, by the way.

00:33:14.000 Was this before or after the train derailment in Ohio?

00:33:18.000 I don't know, but it looks... They were celebrating it?

00:33:20.000 Oh, I see. Let's be honest.

00:33:21.000 Let's be honest. It looks like he's being raped in a prison yard. 1.00

00:33:24.000 Probably so, yeah. It's not a good look. 0.99

00:33:27.000 It looks like they're making him drink it.

00:33:29.000 Yes. Like, alright guys, yeah.

00:33:30.000 Keep it in the bag? I keep it in the bag.

00:33:32.000 Okay, because of the police. If you want to keep your ass, you take a drink. 1.00

00:33:35.000 Yeah. Can I have my poppers first? 1.00

00:33:42.000 No poppers for you! 1.00

00:33:48.000 Brain damage!

00:33:52.000 I'm the mayor! There's nothing like a Mickey's in the afternoon!

00:33:57.000 Get your papas going soon! 0.59

00:34:01.000 Jeez. I'm sorry.

00:34:05.000 That was just pure annoyment from living in New York.

00:34:12.000 You could hear the genuine revulsion from the truth.

00:34:17.000 Tim's heard that conversation outside a park.

00:34:21.000 So here's the thing.

00:34:22.000 The media blitz, like we've said, it's only making things worse for Kamala. 0.97

00:34:27.000 I do a pretty...

00:34:30.000 Good job, I think, when I go, okay, if I were advising Kamala, what would I tell her to do?

00:34:35.000 At this point, I don't know.

00:34:36.000 I think there's no good answer.

00:34:37.000 I think if there's anything that could switch, and anything can happen, the momentum can switch, it will have to come from some kind of outside force, meaning it won't actually be from Kamala or Walls.

00:34:48.000 There'll have to be some kind of crazy October surprise.

00:34:51.000 Don't really... Could happen, but I would expect this gap that's now at seven points, which is pretty substantial, by the way, to either widen a little bit or stay pretty close to that.

00:35:02.000 That's what I think we'll be seeing.

00:35:05.000 And again, this is not a rejection of politics as a game.

00:35:08.000 This is not she didn't focus on one key state.

00:35:12.000 This is not even about the Electoral College.

00:35:13.000 When people say, drink a beer with...

00:35:16.000 Look, the only thing people know about Kamala Harris... 1.00

00:35:20.000 Is kind of her personality.

00:35:22.000 They don't really know her policies.

00:35:23.000 So the reason people don't like her and the numbers are shifting against her is because of who she is. 1.00

00:35:31.000 It's her soul that people can't stand. 0.97

00:35:33.000 And by the way, black men don't like Kamala. 0.99

00:35:35.000 This is a big reason why. You would think the first black female potential president, half black, whatever it is that you want to go with today, you'd think he would... 1.00

00:35:43.000 Nope. Over 25% of black men under the age of 50 actively support Trump.

00:35:49.000 Guarantee you there's a higher number of secret Trump supporters there.

00:35:54.000 You know what? I will tell you this.

00:35:56.000 Spending time, especially in comedy, but around black men in particular.

00:36:01.000 I mean, it's rare that I spend time with black women just because I don't know why. 1.00

00:36:04.000 But I've never met one who actually thought that Trump was racist.

00:36:09.000 And I've certainly never met one black man, meaning someone who's not in media, of course, when I was on Fox News and up here on CNN. Very, very different. 1.00

00:36:16.000 The Van Joneses of the world are very different from the people who you will meet in the area of town that's largely black. 1.00

00:36:22.000 I've never met one who thinks that the Trump voter is a racist or is afraid of them.

00:36:27.000 I really haven't. Even the ones who don't like Trump, I don't think that they hate you the way the left hates you.

00:36:33.000 That's been my experience.

00:36:35.000 You guys can comment if you're experienced.

00:36:36.000 That's what we do, black and white and the gray issues.

00:36:38.000 I actually feel more comfortable discussing politics with black men who we've been told are 100% Democrat, right, a monolith, than frankly, Often suburban white women.

00:36:48.000 That's just me.

00:36:49.000 And the numbers are reflecting it.

00:36:51.000 They are shifting. I think Kamala is going to accelerate that.

00:36:54.000 She's like a nitro boost on the exile of black men from their party. 0.98

00:37:00.000 Yeah, it doesn't seem...

00:37:01.000 And Donald Trump, by the way, has gained five points on that number.

00:37:03.000 It was 20% in...

00:37:04.000 He was up plus, I guess, 20% in 2020.

00:37:07.000 Yeah, 20% support. So now it's 25%.

00:37:09.000 So he's gaining... I think?

00:37:25.000 They also, I think, they're starting to see through the Democrat facade.

00:37:28.000 It's not just Kamala Harris's personality. 0.91

00:37:30.000 She is doing the same things that Democrats have done for decades, which is say, I'm going to give you free stuff, right?

00:37:35.000 Every single one of her policies, if you look at it, is free stuff for people.

00:37:39.000 That's all she can do. She has nothing else to offer.

00:37:42.000 Free stuff, free stuff, free stuff.

00:37:43.000 I'm not going to make the economy better. But she's not even doing that so much because she doesn't really even talk about the free stuff, aside from some credits.

00:37:48.000 Yeah. Yeah, it's tax credits.

00:37:50.000 That's free stuff, right? So tax credits, free stuff.

00:37:52.000 The latest thing that she came out with was home health care is going to be provided by Medicaid now. 0.89

00:37:56.000 Free stuff. Again, more taxpayer spending.

00:37:58.000 I think what the black guys are going is like, how about you do something about the economy and jobs? 1.00

00:38:04.000 I don't need your free stuff because you guys have been telling us free stuff for 50 years and it hasn't worked.

00:38:08.000 I think they're kind of fed up and they don't like her personality on top of it.

00:38:11.000 And it's just pushing them away in droves.

00:38:14.000 Yeah, well, I think you're partially right.

00:38:17.000 I don't think people think of Kamala Harris as the free stuff president because, frankly, she's not even good with the messaging. 1.00

00:38:22.000 Not yet. Yeah, I agree. But if you look at all of her policies, you see it's just nothing but tax cuts and giving away money.

00:38:28.000 And here's something else to think of.

00:38:29.000 When Taylor Swift, obviously, like the most popular celebrity online, or I guess probably in the world, endorses you, and then she has a song that she's using, and Beyonce has given her a stamp of approval, and she's on Stephen Colbert, and she's still not winning.

00:38:44.000 What do you think would happen if we just had some kind of balance in the media or the entertainment industry?

00:38:49.000 In other words, all of this celebrity power, it is influential.

00:38:52.000 It is. But it's still not enough.

00:38:55.000 That tells you how bad this person is.

00:38:58.000 I mean, like, people on, you know, Donald Trump has, like, you know, Jon Voight and Scott Baio, nice people, but it's not Beyonce and Taylor Swift.

00:39:05.000 It's not. Yeah, it's not. It's not even, it wouldn't even be close.

00:39:09.000 If media was balanced, if the entertainment media industrial complex represented just sort of, was a mirror of the rest of the United States of America, meaning close to 50-50, the Democrats would never win another election again.

00:39:22.000 It couldn't possibly happen.

00:39:23.000 It's 100% all hands on deck, all firepower to make it seem like Kamala Harris is likable.

00:39:33.000 And it can't work. And this is what gets me concerned.

00:39:36.000 Look, I don't want to be one of those people who's a doomsday because I've seen it where then people don't go out, they don't vote, they just want to demoralize everyone else.

00:39:44.000 Oh, the game is rigged. Look, yes, the left is constantly engaged in foul play, but...

00:39:51.000 Let's be logical about this.

00:39:53.000 Their first choice would be to not have to cheat in an obvious way, right?

00:39:58.000 To do it with lies by omission, by using media bias, by throttling searches, right?

00:40:03.000 By flat-out censoring searches, as we've seen from Google and YouTube, as we've seen with Facebook and Meta in the past.

00:40:08.000 Thank God, not X and not Rumble right now.

00:40:10.000 They would rather do that than they would rather do the press tour.

00:40:13.000 They would rather put out some lies in the media, right?

00:40:15.000 They'd rather do... But when they don't work, okay, they do have some Hail Marys that involve blatant cheating. 0.99

00:40:22.000 They haven't done that yet.

00:40:24.000 I think they're getting to that point.

00:40:26.000 So I say this because I've told you it's lie, lie, lie, cheat.

00:40:30.000 We're in that last lie phase.

00:40:34.000 And come election night, if it doesn't work, and I don't think it's going to work leading up to election, that's when you can expect some kind of cheating.

00:40:42.000 And that's why we are gearing up for the election livestream of the century, November 5th.

00:40:46.000 This year, 2024, we will have the live electoral integrity map.

00:40:49.000 We will have boots on the ground, investigative journalists, every major city of every major swing state across this country.

00:40:55.000 No one will have the data.

00:40:56.000 No one will have the ability.

00:40:58.000 That we have on that night to call, dispute states, and let you know everything that is going on across this country.

00:41:04.000 If there is any foul play whatsoever, huge undertaking, click that button.

00:41:07.000 You can join Mug Club in addition to everything else you get.

00:41:10.000 But we do need your support.

00:41:11.000 Go mugless for $9 a month.

00:41:13.000 Just do it monthly between now and election so that we can be here for as long as the election drags on.

00:41:18.000 Dear God, I hope...

00:41:19.000 That's the real reason, selfishly, I'm hoping for a walk-off from Donald Trump so that I don't have to be here for three days.

00:41:25.000 Yeah. Absolutely.

00:41:27.000 Pennsylvania, help us out. And by the way, look, let your freak flag fly, right?

00:41:30.000 We have, obviously, fantastic Trump stuff at our shop, crowdershop.com.

00:41:35.000 We don't sell this, but get a Trump hat.

00:41:37.000 Get something to show people around you.

00:41:39.000 Because every time I see somebody in a Trump hat or in my neighborhood, I've started seeing more Trump yard signs, a Trump flag flying.

00:41:45.000 And this isn't a neighborhood that's super...

00:41:48.000 It's a bit conservative, obviously, but it's not over the top.

00:41:51.000 But you see it and you're like, these are my people.

00:41:54.000 It kind of emboldens you a little bit.

00:41:56.000 So don't be the person who's just like, ah, hide from all this stuff.

00:41:58.000 Let it out there a little bit.

00:42:00.000 That's what I think, too, because I'm completely against this hero worship that you see from some people where Trump can do no wrong.

00:42:06.000 But it's sort of because they've tried to make you afraid simply for voting Trump.

00:42:11.000 It's sort of become like drawing half that Christian fish. 0.99

00:42:13.000 Whereas you used to be able to say, you know, in other words, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger can say, I'm a Republican, but it doesn't mean anything.

00:42:20.000 But if you put something out there that is even remotely pro-Trump, that means you're taking a risk and other people see it.

00:42:26.000 That's how Donald Trump acts as a symbol for a lot of people.

00:42:29.000 And by the way, it probably would be the same thing if it happened to be Ron DeSantis.

00:42:34.000 But it's not. This is where we are.

00:42:35.000 And I think it's important for you to find your people.

00:42:38.000 Put up your bat signal, as it were. 0.98

00:42:41.000 Let's go to the swing states here and some updates.

00:42:44.000 It's pretty interesting. To not just look at the recent polls, but to look contextually at where these polls were this time in the last election cycle and what the end result was.

00:42:56.000 Because if you look at that, the news gets even better.

00:42:59.000 But for those of you who don't know, if you've been living...

00:43:01.000 Why do people say under a rock?

00:43:03.000 I have no idea. I don't know.

00:43:05.000 Living in women's Ivy League hockey.

00:43:08.000 Same thing. You may not know that there's an election underway and the margins are closed.

00:43:14.000 Simply put, this race hasn't moved. 0.99

00:43:16.000 It has been continuously very, very tight.

00:43:19.000 And one way you can get an understanding of that is I want to take you through history, all right?

00:43:23.000 Campaigns where any candidate held a lead of at least five or more points in the polls.

00:43:28.000 We're going to go all the way back since 1964.

00:43:31.000 What? Since when?

00:43:34.000 1964? Everybody says it that way.

00:43:37.000 All 15 of them from 1964 to 2020.

00:43:40.000 If you look this year, there have been zero days, count them, zero days, where either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump has been ahead by at least five points in the poll.

00:43:50.000 Why is he dressed like a rotten banana? Also...

00:43:53.000 Rewind that. First, it was like, 1964?

00:43:56.000 We will go back 48 fortnights!

00:43:58.000 And then look, he underlines, he says, there have been zero days, but he underlines 2024.

00:44:04.000 Rewind. It's a completely irrelevant underline.

00:44:08.000 Campaigns where any candidate held a lead of at least five or more points in the polls.

00:44:12.000 We're going to go all the way back since 1964.

00:44:15.000 Okay, it's on the screen. Most campaigns, most campaigns, at least one candidate has led by five points or more at least three weeks.

00:44:21.000 In fact, all 15 of them from 1964 to 2020.

00:44:25.000 What's that, a half parentheses?

00:44:26.000 If you look this year, there have been zero days.

00:44:28.000 There have been zero days. And he underlines 2024!

00:44:33.000 What is he doing? There have been zero days.

00:44:37.000 2024, let me give you a green highlighter.

00:44:39.000 Why? Did you notice it took a second, too?

00:44:41.000 Because the graphics guy was like, oh, shit, wrong spot. 0.76

00:44:43.000 What is it doing? It's a touchscreen. 0.98

00:44:46.000 It's a touchscreen, and he wanted it there, and now he has to use it to justify the expense.

00:44:50.000 It makes zero sense.

00:44:52.000 Come on, Gerald. I'll ruin my fantasy.

00:44:57.000 So, of course, it comes down to a few key states.

00:45:00.000 Now, let's look at some of these swing states.

00:45:02.000 So, Arizona. That's a big one, right?

00:45:04.000 Let's look at the RCP average right now.

00:45:06.000 Donald Trump is leading by 1.4.

00:45:07.000 Now, that's well within the margin of error, to be clear.

00:45:09.000 At this point in time, in 2020, Biden was leading by 2.7%.

00:45:13.000 Okay? So, Biden was leading by 2.7.

00:45:17.000 So, that's, you know, that's a three-point or so swing.

00:45:21.000 Keep in mind... Well, yeah.

00:45:23.000 Close. You're not a math Asian. 1.00

00:45:24.000 I get it. Yeah, I guess you're right.

00:45:26.000 Yeah, because I'm going up and like...

00:45:27.000 And I was looking at the next number.

00:45:29.000 Biden won by 0.3%.

00:45:32.000 Jeez. So in other words, when Biden was up close to 3% in the polls, he won by 0.3, and now Trump is up by 1.4.

00:45:42.000 That context does matter.

00:45:45.000 In most of these states, there are some exceptions, you've seen Donald Trump overperform polling.

00:45:49.000 But here's something interesting here, and Elaine, the brain helped point this out.

00:45:52.000 Here's a key trend in Arizona.

00:45:54.000 And we had to double-check this.

00:45:56.000 Because it almost defies belief.

00:46:00.000 Yeah. And we'll make the references, of course, they're always available to you.

00:46:03.000 Link in the description or ladderwithcredit.com every day.

00:46:05.000 So you can tell us if you think we've gotten anything wrong.

00:46:07.000 Yeah. Is that in Arizona, the Latino male vote is startling.

00:46:13.000 So Arizona, Latino men, Hispanic men, age 18 to 34.

00:46:17.000 Trump is winning them by 12%.

00:46:20.000 He's up 12%.

00:46:21.000 That's a lot. Jeez. Now, it's even more when you understand that in 2020, that 18 to 34, call them young Hispanic men, Biden won them by 21%.

00:46:30.000 Wow. Biden won them by 21, and now Trump is up by 12.

00:46:35.000 Then you go to the number overall, it gets worse.

00:46:38.000 All Hispanic or Latino men, or sorry, the next demographic, 35 to 49. 0.96

00:46:44.000 Biden was up by 21 in 2020 with Hispanic men over age 35.

00:46:49.000 Trump is up by 20.

00:46:51.000 Wow. That's a 40-point difference.

00:46:54.000 Yeah, that's a huge, huge swing.

00:46:56.000 Don't look at it as like, oh, he's winning.

00:46:57.000 It's like, he not only is winning, he's taking back losses from the past.

00:47:01.000 Yeah. He was massively losing.

00:47:03.000 Now he's plus 20 in that group.

00:47:05.000 That's insane. And the craziest thing is the guy, Donald Trump, is winning Hispanic voters in places like Arizona.

00:47:13.000 Largely campaigning on a wall!

00:47:15.000 Yeah, please tell me there's a white or a black guy at CNN who's going to tell these Hispanics what they need to know.

00:47:19.000 Yeah, exactly. Maybe we were wrong on the whole wall thing.

00:47:23.000 Maybe we need... If they're going to be plus 20 for Trump, it's like...

00:47:26.000 Maybe I have citizenship right this way!

00:47:29.000 We may say you're a dreamer.

00:47:32.000 Would you like to vote?

00:47:38.000 Here you go. Just kidding, of course.

00:47:42.000 Sure, you can have a ballot. You know what?

00:47:44.000 Take two. Dos.

00:47:46.000 Let's go. Yes. Thank you, Padre.

00:47:49.000 Let's go. De nada.

00:47:50.000 Dos, de nada. Let's go to Nevada.

00:47:53.000 Now, Nevada, a lot of people are just sort of saying, ah, it's clear that Harris will win Nevada.

00:47:57.000 Ah, I don't know.

00:47:58.000 That's not true. So she's up the average right now by 1.1%, well within the margin of error.

00:48:03.000 At this point in that election, 2020, Biden was up by 6%, but he only won it by about 2.4%.

00:48:10.000 So we're well within the margin of error.

00:48:12.000 Biden was well beyond the margin of error, and he barely won it.

00:48:18.000 If there's at all, put it this way, if these polls have not corrected, as they've said that they have, for the secret Trump voter, it could be a giant red wave of a map.

00:48:30.000 Not saying it will be, but I'm saying this is going to be a referendum on what we've known to be polling.

00:48:38.000 If they have not actually accounted for the secret Trump voter, this could be the most embarrassing moment for pollsters in modern American history.

00:48:46.000 Another key trend, while we're talking about Nevada, let's look at Latino men again.

00:48:49.000 So maybe Arizona exists in a vacuum.

00:48:52.000 Nope. Trump, with Nevada Latino men, 18 of 49, he's up by 13%.

00:48:57.000 He's winning them by 13.

00:49:00.000 Now, unlike Arizona, he did win them by 3%.

00:49:03.000 So basically a split.

00:49:05.000 Basically a split in 2020.

00:49:06.000 He's up by 13%.

00:49:09.000 He may win Nevada.

00:49:10.000 Thank you, Mexicans. And that's a bigger... 0.96

00:49:17.000 Do they have any other songs?

00:49:19.000 Well... I don't think so. There's another one.

00:49:22.000 A lot of them sound like that. It's Feliz Navidad.

00:49:24.000 Yes. I do love that one, though.

00:49:26.000 It's a lot of fun. It is a good one.

00:49:27.000 Michael Bublé does an amazing job.

00:49:29.000 Yeah, well... The white guy doing a Spanish song is always my favorite.

00:49:32.000 It's appropriation. Yeah, it is.

00:49:34.000 I like the little neon sign, the Christmas Santa Claus that sings Feliz Navidad and his mustache moves.

00:49:39.000 I don't know that one. I have a good laugh.

00:49:41.000 You can find it on some houses around here.

00:49:43.000 What were we about to say, Gerald? I was about to say, so a couple of things.

00:49:44.000 This is a broader group. The last time we split the age group up between 18 and 49, right?

00:49:48.000 So this is a broader group, and he's still winning by a big, big number, more than he did last time.

00:49:52.000 But also these polls, if you look at the RCP averages, a lot of the more recent polls have Trump up.

00:49:58.000 Yes. In these cases. Even if Kamala Harris maybe has a 1.1 lead overall, the latest poll a lot of times has Trump maybe up plus one. 0.97

00:50:05.000 Still within the margin of error, but you're starting to see a trend go a different direction for Donald Trump in these polls.

00:50:10.000 Right. Well... Sorry.

00:50:13.000 I missed the cough button. Let's go to Georgia.

00:50:16.000 You didn't even try! You didn't even try!

00:50:19.000 You didn't even try!

00:50:21.000 Reach out and touch my cough button.

00:50:24.000 What was the name of the son? That's weird.

00:50:26.000 I don't know. A personal Jesus?

00:50:28.000 Is that what you're talking about? No, I'm talking about Hook.

00:50:30.000 Oh! Reach out and touch my hand, boy.

00:50:33.000 Rufio? No.

00:50:34.000 No. Little boy from What About Bob.

00:50:36.000 He didn't even try. Tyler.

00:50:38.000 He didn't even try. All right.

00:50:41.000 You're afraid you're going to be sucked out?

00:50:43.000 Brendan. Ew.

00:50:44.000 You're just making up words.

00:50:46.000 Caleb. Now you're just saying names.

00:50:48.000 You stop saying names.

00:50:52.000 Georgia. And by the way, if you listen closely, you can hear it.

00:50:54.000 That's the sound of Stacey Abrams still not accepting the election results in Georgia. 1.00

00:50:59.000 Cheated. The RCP average has Trump up by 1.5%.

00:51:03.000 Okay. So that's well within the margin of error.

00:51:06.000 2020, they were tied by Biden and Trump at this point.

00:51:09.000 Now, Biden won by 0.3% in Georgia.

00:51:12.000 And that's assuming... Let no pipe burst.

00:51:16.000 Let's just assume that everything was on the up and up and there was nothing there that could be considered underhanded.

00:51:21.000 So, in Georgia, actually, the polls were pretty close, pretty accurate, and it's within the margin of error.

00:51:27.000 The more recent polls have Trump up consistently.

00:51:30.000 And if you look at the betting odds, the betting odds are very strong for him winning in Arizona.

00:51:34.000 Here's another key trend, though, in Georgia that we're seeing.

00:51:38.000 This is surprising to a lot of people.

00:51:41.000 Young voters. Young voters.

00:51:44.000 Trump lost them by 13 points in 2020.

00:51:47.000 Approximately. He's winning them by 5.

00:51:49.000 Oh, wow. We're giving you an estimate because exit polling isn't exactly the same.

00:51:53.000 So call it anywhere, he lost them by 10 to 15 points in 2020.

00:51:56.000 He's winning them by 5.

00:51:57.000 It's young voters, meaning Gen Z voters, older Gen Z voters who can vote.

00:52:02.000 Young millennials, right? I've been telling you guys this for a while.

00:52:06.000 You may be surprised to find that there's a segment of Gen Z that is the most conservative at this point in time, meaning at this point in their lifespan, than any generation.

00:52:18.000 Baby boomers were far more liberal.

00:52:19.000 Generation X was far more liberal.

00:52:21.000 Millennials were far more liberal because they've been steeped in it.

00:52:25.000 I know you see everything on TikTok and you see those trends, but young Or old enough to vote Gen Z males are far more conservative than their parents were at that point in time.

00:52:35.000 So again, don't just believe the pessimism that's out there.

00:52:39.000 Are they going to naturally be more? 1.00

00:52:41.000 Well, yes, young people are stupid. 1.00

00:52:42.000 They don't have a dog in the fight. 1.00

00:52:43.000 So the fact that Donald Trump is winning them at all or even close to a tie, that's huge.

00:52:50.000 But I thought Kamala was brat. 1.00

00:52:53.000 Yeah, but these kids are being over-lefted. 0.87

00:52:55.000 Sure, I know what that means, either.

00:52:57.000 They're trying to unburden themselves from the leftism that's all around them.

00:53:02.000 Everywhere they go, dude. Their adult life started with, especially dudes, their adult life started with, you suck, you're the problem, why won't you marry me? 1.00

00:53:12.000 Well, yes. And also... 1.00

00:53:15.000 I want to fuck other people. 1.00

00:53:17.000 Can you marry me, please? That's not how it's supposed to work. 1.00

00:53:21.000 Also, let's add to that mix.

00:53:22.000 Let's picture you're a Gen Z of voting age.

00:53:27.000 So you're in high school. Let's just say, put yourself in these shoes right now.

00:53:31.000 You're a liberal, about to go out into the world Gen Z. Picture it in your mind's eye. 0.99

00:53:37.000 You're 16. School's shut down.

00:53:41.000 Yes! Yes!

00:53:45.000 Yes! My life has been irreparably damaged.

00:54:10.000 It's one thing if you're 35, from 35 to 37, it's a whole different ballgame when you're 16 to 18, or 18 to 20 entering the workforce, and these, where you are so malleable, these formative years for you in the workplace or in higher education, cannot, it couldn't be possible, they cannot equip you for

00:54:32.000 the real world because it was a fantasy world, effectively. It was a

00:54:36.000 nightmare world because of COVID and because of the policy and young people 1.00

00:54:40.000 are smart enough, they're smart enough to understand the reason for that. I

00:54:44.000 think that's a huge why you're seeing that older Gen Z, kind of old enough to 0.98

00:54:48.000 vote, veering to the right.

00:54:50.000 And you know what? 0.60

00:54:51.000 Hey, it sucks because it was the worst time in our country's history that I can remember.

00:54:58.000 But sometimes, you know, that's unfortunately what's required for people to wake up. 0.86

00:55:01.000 Well, they also kind of broke the stranglehold of media, right?

00:55:04.000 So young people now have a lot more options to go and find out what's really going on.

00:55:08.000 They can do their own homework. They don't have to just buy what's being...

00:55:10.000 They don't have cable. They're not watching ABC. They're not watching NBC, Fox, CNN. That's a good point.

00:55:15.000 For example, when CNN completely doctored Joe Rogan, right, and made him look yellow on ivermectin, CNN knows that to 50 and up, They actually get to define Joe Rogan.

00:55:28.000 In other words, people will believe of Joe Rogan what CNN tells them.

00:55:32.000 People below the age of 30, below the age of 25...

00:55:36.000 CNN doesn't get to define Joe Rogan. They go straight to Joe Rogan and go, oh, okay, you're lying, right?

00:55:40.000 You're lying. That's why they want to be played in airports doctors offices hotel lobbies

00:55:45.000 They're not actually being played in homes and certainly not live on people's smart devices

00:55:49.000 Yeah, and there's a lot of bad that comes with that too because people have a short attention span, but they don't

00:55:53.000 get to define Who someone is?

00:55:56.000 To a younger generation because they're more likely to get it from the original source themselves

00:56:02.000 It's a huge difference. Also, they've watched it. They've seen it right people

00:56:06.000 They know people that are relevant people that this is a great example because Joe Rogan has had everyone on his

00:56:10.000 show, right?

00:56:11.000 So it's like they've seen multiple clips throughout their adult legend the short adult life and then somebody who has

00:56:16.000 never watched over It's like oh look he has John does yeah. Yeah

00:56:19.000 I figure that you'll have some kid who doesn't even like, let's say a young liberal, right?

00:56:22.000 And they have a dad who watches CNN at the dinner table.

00:56:24.000 He's going, did you hear that Joe Rogan has taken horse medicine and he looks like he has jaundice?

00:56:29.000 And the kids are like, I don't even like him.

00:56:30.000 He's not taking horse medicine, dad.

00:56:32.000 He's taking ivermectin. That's the most commonly prescribed antiviral on earth, probably.

00:56:37.000 And he doesn't have jaundice. I see him every day.

00:56:39.000 He doesn't have jaundice. That's the conversation that would take place.

00:56:41.000 And you're going to turn that kid into a rebel.

00:56:43.000 What's he rebelling against? The people who watch CNN. The establishment.

00:56:47.000 So there is a lot to be said for that.

00:56:49.000 Let's go to North Carolina. The RCP average has Trump up by 0.6%.

00:56:55.000 Now that doesn't seem like a lot.

00:56:57.000 And North Carolina was not really seen as a swing state.

00:57:00.000 But a lot of you may be forgetting that in 2020, Biden was up at this point in time by 1.8%.

00:57:05.000 Call it 2%.

00:57:06.000 What were the results?

00:57:08.000 Trump won North Carolina by 1.3%.

00:57:12.000 1.3%.

00:57:14.000 So again, Donald Trump significantly overperformed the polling in 2020, and now he's well within the margin of error, but he's up, and the most recent polls have him up.

00:57:23.000 Let's look at a key trend, too, in North Carolina, and this is something important because it's something that you can help with, okay?

00:57:30.000 Maybe we're looking at the legalities of it when you get to it.

00:57:32.000 Well, I'm saying if you're part of a group in North Carolina, something that you can help with.

00:57:36.000 And we may actually be able to partner up with some groups and help with this.

00:57:40.000 Like, in Avery County, 14 of the 19 polling stations are completely unusable, of course, because of the natural disaster.

00:57:45.000 I'm not saying that it's Democrat space lasers.

00:57:48.000 Of course. They don't have those.

00:57:51.000 But this does disproportionately affect one group, because Avery County was a Trump by a margin of 50 points.

00:57:59.000 Trump plus 50. Trump plus 50.

00:58:01.000 Okay, in every county. And 14 out of 19 polling stations there are not actually usable at all.

00:58:06.000 So the North Carolina State Board of Electors actually just approved new rules, right, some changes because of Hurricane Helene.

00:58:14.000 That's where it would be appropriate.

00:58:15.000 Not just mass mail-in voting period Pennsylvania, at Pennsylvania, violating your state constitution, but

00:58:21.000 okay, a rule change because people aren't actually able to get to these polling stations or they're not working to

00:58:27.000 vote.

00:58:27.000 So outreach groups now can actually help people in shelters fill out ballots

00:58:32.000 and we're looking in to see if we can have some people help out there.

00:58:35.000 If we can't, please look into the groups in your area who you can partner up with

00:58:39.000 because that could quite literally affect the state.

00:58:43.000 When you're talking about a natural disaster like this, you could have voter turnout be wildly different from the

00:58:49.000 historical trends and you could have a huge impact on that if you're in North

00:58:52.000 Carolina.

00:58:53.000 And also, it's no small thing that North Carolina residents right now are saying that the government is nowhere to be found.

00:59:00.000 I can say that a lot of people who are in these very isolated communities say that they haven't seen government efforts.

00:59:07.000 But again, that's just what they're seeing in these very small towns that only locals really know how to navigate.

00:59:15.000 So we'll keep you updated on that with more as we kind of get to the bottom of it.

00:59:20.000 I have to go now to Michigan, my kind of home state to my everlasting shame.

00:59:27.000 And also, Michigan is a weird one.

00:59:30.000 Look, I've been very straightforward, okay?

00:59:35.000 I do not think the election was the most free and fair election of our time.

00:59:38.000 Just to be clear.

00:59:40.000 And I think that Michigan is the worst example.

00:59:43.000 And I think that there was so much nefarious activity going on in Michigan with that 100,000 plus vote dump almost entirely for Biden in the middle of the night.

00:59:52.000 They made that margin so wide that They were hoping no one would question.

00:59:57.000 Like, well, come on. You think you're going to cheat to the tune of 160,000 votes?

01:00:00.000 Yes, absolutely. In Michigan, I know the state.

01:00:03.000 I know the state legislature.

01:00:05.000 100% I believe it could happen because I have zero faith.

01:00:10.000 Zero faith in Michigan state government.

01:00:12.000 Michiganders, you let me know. 0.59

01:00:14.000 That's not to crap on the state, the people of the state. 0.98

01:00:17.000 But yes, the state government of Michigan is awful. 0.96

01:00:23.000 And for proof, for proof.

01:00:25.000 See, Detroit. Always a far-left mayor from 1961 to today.

01:00:30.000 It would be the left's utopia, and it's gradually spread its cancerous politics across the state.

01:00:38.000 Urban farming, Stephen.

01:00:39.000 Detroit, the pewter city.

01:00:41.000 Yes! 1961.

01:00:43.000 1900, you're right, and 61.

01:00:45.000 Detroit, it's grayscale in real life.

01:00:48.000 So the RCP average right now has Harris up by 0.5%.

01:00:53.000 Okay, she's up. Again, it's in the margin of error.

01:00:56.000 Biden was up in 2020 by 6.7% at this moment in time, and he only ended up winning by 2.8%.

01:01:03.000 So again, keep that in mind.

01:01:05.000 Now, Michigan was the biggest surprise to me in 2016.

01:01:08.000 Donald Trump was not winning Michigan, according to the polls.

01:01:11.000 They had Biden up by 6.7%.

01:01:13.000 He wasn't even close in the final vote.

01:01:17.000 And Hillary Clinton was nowhere close in her final vote. 0.99

01:01:20.000 It surprised me.

01:01:22.000 But at this point, it actually seems well within the realm of possibility.

01:01:26.000 Again, the trend that you are seeing is that the numbers are significantly better now than they were in 2020, and the Democrats have consistently underperformed on a national scale.

01:01:37.000 Local elections are different than their polling in the final result.

01:01:41.000 And a key trend, in Michigan, this is interesting to me, and I don't know if it's just because of population loss or because of the high murder rate, but The Democrat percentage, or self-identified Democrats in Michigan, it's been going down consistently.

01:01:57.000 So in 2008 with Obama, 16.4 is the lead that they had.

01:02:03.000 Then in 2012 with Obama, Democrats had a lead of 9.5.

01:02:07.000 Then Clinton had a lead of 7.3, and Clinton didn't win the state.

01:02:12.000 Now, I don't know why that's the case.

01:02:30.000 Also, and we'll get to Wisconsin, here's the Teamsters president kind of talking about Democrats screwing unions, which have a very strong stranglehold on Michigan. 0.78

01:02:39.000 This is not to say that I now trust the Teamsters union, because you can hear him be a selfish prick, but at least he's, you know, the enemy of my enemy, however it goes.

01:02:48.000 They have f***ed us over for the last 40 years and for once, and not all of them. 0.96

01:02:52.000 But for once, we're standing up as a union, probably the only one right now, saying, what the f*** have you done for us? 0.86

01:02:59.000 And I'm getting attacked from the left.

01:03:02.000 Since I've been in office two and a half years, we've given the Democratic machine $15.7 million.

01:03:10.000 We've given Republicans about $340,000, truth be told.

01:03:14.000 So it's like people say the Democratic Party is a party of the working people.

01:03:18.000 They're bought and paid for by big tech.

01:03:20.000 Those big tech companies.

01:03:21.000 Yeah, tech is the new fossil fuel, man.

01:03:22.000 That's what I say.

01:03:23.000 Right.

01:03:24.000 And you've got the Republicans who are now saying, hey, we want to be the working class

01:03:28.000 party, right?

01:03:30.000 And OK, you've got a great opportunity right now to do that. 0.95

01:03:34.000 And the Democrats, if 60 percent of our members aren't supporting you, the f***ing system's 0.53

01:03:40.000 Now, I mean, I'm glad to see them crapping on the Democrat Party, but what he really means is you have an opportunity to do that, right? 0.51

01:03:46.000 Okay, so if a Republican says, yeah, but people shouldn't have to join a union if they want to work in your state and they haven't agreed upon, all right, done.

01:03:52.000 You're going to find yourself in a river with concrete shoes.

01:03:54.000 So it is entirely selfishly motivated. 0.96

01:03:59.000 Yeah, we want you to force people to buy our crap that nobody wants to buy. 0.65

01:04:02.000 Well, no, that's not how it works either. 0.94

01:04:04.000 But the left certainly does make a point.

01:04:07.000 You know, the left has been largely supported by big unions.

01:04:09.000 Now they are supported by big tech.

01:04:10.000 And big tech has more money.

01:04:12.000 What have you done for us?

01:04:14.000 What have you done for us?

01:04:16.000 Go to your job? Go to work?

01:04:18.000 Hey, look, thank you, union, for your five-day work week.

01:04:21.000 Well, I work weekends. Yeah, well, you're a pussy. 1.00

01:04:24.000 You must not be in a union. 1.00

01:04:25.000 Must not be in a union making benefits, even when you have, like, three retirees per worker. 1.00

01:04:34.000 Matt's not a strong suit, bitch. 1.00

01:04:40.000 They're just mad that they're no longer the bell of the ball. 1.00

01:04:42.000 That's what it is. Unions were the biggest donors to Democrats, and now Big Tech has kind of replaced them.

01:04:47.000 That's what it sounded like. It sounded like some jealousy there.

01:04:49.000 It sounded like, well, the new girlfriend is way hotter and younger. 1.00

01:04:53.000 It's not fair. Yeah, all right.

01:04:55.000 Okay, you go down to your Arnie Ones pretzels with your Bill Gates and your Bezos.

01:05:00.000 I never loved you anyway. 1.00

01:05:02.000 Bitch. Oh, go ahead and eat dinner at your Gumar's house. 1.00

01:05:06.000 Yeah. Yeah, you and your Zuckerbergs and your Jack Dorseys.

01:05:11.000 You probably take it up the A. Because they're still homophobic. 0.80

01:05:16.000 So let's go to Wisconsin here.

01:05:19.000 And this is what I've said. I actually think that Wisconsin is more likely for Donald Trump to win than Michigan.

01:05:22.000 Let me tell you why.

01:05:24.000 Because I know a lot of people in Wisconsin.

01:05:26.000 I know a lot of people in Michigan.

01:05:27.000 Harris is only up by 0.8% right now in the RCP average.

01:05:30.000 Biden was up by 5.5%.

01:05:33.000 Biden only ended up winning by 0.7%.

01:05:37.000 So again, this is well within...

01:05:41.000 I'm not going to say plausible.

01:05:44.000 I'll give these things a coin toss.

01:05:46.000 They really are. Wisconsin, Michigan, coin toss.

01:05:49.000 If you look at the most recent polling for Biden when he was getting closer to Election Day in 2020, he didn't trail in any of those polls on the RCP average.

01:05:57.000 If you look at the polling right now, go to the one with 2024 right now, Donald Trump's basically splitting those.

01:06:03.000 You've got Trump, Harris, Trump, Harris, Trump, Harris.

01:06:05.000 It's going back and forth by one or two.

01:06:07.000 That's a much different look.

01:06:09.000 Yeah. Than what you saw before.

01:06:10.000 So you're right. Maybe... I didn't think Wisconsin, but maybe Wisconsin could be the easier target of the two, Michigan and Wisconsin.

01:06:16.000 Here's a key trend, by the way, in Wisconsin.

01:06:18.000 We brought to you, you know, Nevada, Arizona, Latino voters.

01:06:20.000 Big, big trend. Big trend is that 41 of the 50 drunkest counties are in...

01:06:26.000 In the United States. Wisconsin.

01:06:28.000 Now, I'll tell you one more thing.

01:06:30.000 On top of that, we found, we drilled down, the top 11 drunkest counties in the United States are all in Wisconsin.

01:06:36.000 Are all top 11.

01:06:37.000 You own the top 11. They were like...

01:06:39.000 They're like, top 10?

01:06:41.000 Hey, we got 11, too.

01:06:44.000 Don't forget. I mean, you know, we kind of gave them a bye on 12, but we still got 13, 14, or 15.

01:06:49.000 Don't forget O'Claire over there.

01:06:50.000 I used to think it was just a stereotype, dude.

01:06:52.000 My first time in Wisconsin, I was doing comedy.

01:06:54.000 Uber driver picks me up late at night.

01:06:56.000 It's like midnight. I'm like, let's go to a...

01:06:57.000 Drop me off at a bar before I go to my hotel.

01:06:59.000 He goes, perfect. We end up sparking up a conversation.

01:07:02.000 Comes in the bar, starts drinking with me.

01:07:03.000 Yeah. And then I don't know what happened.

01:07:06.000 I think he went back to work.

01:07:07.000 The only Uber black with a breathalyzer.

01:07:09.000 That's right. As an official resident of Chippewa Falls, I can attest that this is true.

01:07:14.000 Oh, you are! They only put this in Uber Comfort or higher.

01:07:20.000 They are fun, though.

01:07:21.000 And it's criminal, because the beers are like 50 cents.

01:07:24.000 Yeah, I know. I feel like a baller with that.

01:07:26.000 Well, they don't have to pay shipping. They're all brewed in our own backyard.

01:07:30.000 That's right. Why do you think we're going to go down to some fancy pants Germany or some light in the loafers, fruity pebbles Belgium?

01:07:41.000 Well, at least they know who they are.

01:07:42.000 They have a baseball team.

01:07:43.000 They named it the Brewers.

01:07:45.000 That's the most accurate name in sports since the Auschwitz Ashes. 0.89

01:07:51.000 They're on fire! I'm sorry, everybody.

01:07:57.000 And Josh has no more dates.

01:08:00.000 Hitler bad. Hitler bad. 0.87

01:08:02.000 Hitler bad. Josh's joke's also bad. 0.65

01:08:06.000 Man, I don't even have it.

01:08:08.000 You don't have Hitler bad? Well, we have it, but it's hidden. 0.99

01:08:11.000 Where is it? That's our safety.

01:08:14.000 I was kind of counting on you.

01:08:16.000 Oh, there it is. No time like the present tool, man.

01:08:21.000 I haven't used it in a while. It's been a while.

01:08:24.000 Thanks, Josh. Yeah, it's because you're Hitler. 0.80

01:08:28.000 So... Also, Hitler bad. 0.96

01:08:30.000 Hitler bad. Hitler terrible. 0.99

01:08:32.000 Bad guy. Josh, okay, fine.

01:08:35.000 Bad guy. Alright, let's go to Pennsylvania.

01:08:38.000 Trump is up 2 in the RCP average right now.

01:08:40.000 0.2. He's up by 0.2?

01:08:43.000 Yeah, it is 0.2.

01:08:44.000 That's a misprint. Sorry.

01:08:45.000 Okay, sorry. He's up by 0.2.

01:08:47.000 Latest poll, he's up 2.

01:08:48.000 Yeah, latest poll, he's up 2. He's up by 0.2 in the average.

01:08:50.000 Alright. And the more recent polls are more favorable to Trump, but of course you take that spread of the average.

01:08:55.000 Alright. Here's something I had forgotten.

01:08:58.000 At this point in time, Biden was up in Pennsylvania by 7.1.

01:09:01.000 Wow! 7.1, which would be well...

01:09:04.000 Like, that would be a walk-off.

01:09:05.000 That would be non-swing state levels at that point if people expect you to consistently win by 7 points.

01:09:11.000 And he's from Scranton when he wants to be.

01:09:14.000 The final results, though...

01:09:16.000 Electric City! Yeah, he only won by 1.2.

01:09:18.000 He only won by 1.2.

01:09:20.000 And I remember thinking that Pennsylvania was one where the numbers were plumped up because

01:09:25.000 of those states, they've kind of, they sort of, before 2016, people didn't think of any of these

01:09:30.000 Rust Belt states as swing states, but the closest one left was Pennsylvania. In other words, no one

01:09:34.000 thought of Michigan or Wisconsin really as swing states, but Pennsylvania, they were saying, is

01:09:38.000 kind of going to Democrats, how Ohio went to Trump, but maybe it's in play. So I remember the last

01:09:44.000 election going, how was Biden up seven points in Pennsylvania when Hillary Clinton lost it?

01:09:49.000 It was an outlier. And then it turns out, no, it was just like all the other states.

01:09:52.000 He barely won them.

01:09:54.000 And a trend that you're seeing in Pennsylvania, again, good news.

01:09:57.000 Good news here. This is a huge one.

01:09:59.000 Is that Republicans are out-registering Democrats by a significant margin.

01:10:04.000 So in the last five months... Thanks in large part to Scott Pressler, by the way.

01:10:06.000 Scott Pressler, who we've had on the show.

01:10:08.000 Not the guy who you would expect...

01:10:10.000 No!...to potentially be...

01:10:12.000 The deal breaker in this election, to potentially be the game changer in this election, Scott Pressler.

01:10:18.000 And good for him. Honestly, good for him.

01:10:19.000 This is a guy, for those of you who haven't followed him, he's been on the show, kind of started off as a social media influencer, and he said, you know what, I'm going to pivot and do something meaningful, impactful, and he really has, man, he's made a difference, because Democrats, if you look at the new registrations in the last five months, about 54,000, Republicans 124,000.

01:10:36.000 Wow. Just to give you context, yeah, that 80,000 margin of victory.

01:10:40.000 Yeah, Biden's margin of victory was 80,000 total votes in that 1.3% or 1.2% by which he won.

01:10:46.000 And this is just the last five months.

01:10:48.000 If you look at some of the data from Pennsylvania, he's actually flipping counties to where Republicans are now dominant in specific counties that used to be completely controlled by Democrats by his registration efforts.

01:10:58.000 Huge, huge results in Pennsylvania right now for him.

01:11:00.000 Well, let's bring this up really quickly so you can visualize this.

01:11:03.000 Let's bring up the 270 to win map so people can see it.

01:11:08.000 And then we're going to continue on Mug Club, of course, our election livestream coverage, November 5th, 2024.

01:11:12.000 Click that button. If you want to be here with us and ensure that no shenanigans take place in the dead of night, let's bring up 270 to win.

01:11:20.000 There you go. Okay. So let's start.

01:11:23.000 No, no. Hold on. It has North Carolina.

01:11:24.000 So let's take Arizona.

01:11:26.000 Put it neutral really quickly.

01:11:28.000 Okay. Neutral.

01:11:29.000 Put North Carolina. Make that neutral. 0.73

01:11:32.000 Okay. And make Michigan and Wisconsin neutral, please.

01:11:38.000 I know it's only like one or two electorate votes, but I think we still have Nebraska with their two-tier system.

01:11:44.000 We do. Yeah, yeah. We still do have a two.

01:11:47.000 They decided they were going to keep it that way.

01:11:48.000 Oh, they did? Okay, my bad. All right.

01:11:50.000 So, right now, and what we're seeing with these RCP averages.

01:11:55.000 Okay, Arizona. You can pretty much give that to Trump, right?

01:12:00.000 Unless, barring something crazy happening, okay.

01:12:02.000 So that puts Trump at 246.

01:12:04.000 That's pretty small. Okay. North Carolina, again, if you look at the betting odds, these are the first two that you would put up for Donald Trump, especially now after Hurricane Helene.

01:12:13.000 So put North Carolina on the board for Trump.

01:12:15.000 262. 262.

01:12:17.000 Okay. Yeah.

01:12:26.000 Yeah.

01:12:29.000 Yeah. Think about this for a second.

01:12:37.000 Just look at that.

01:12:38.000 Take a minute. Now, for Harris to win, let's give Harris Nevada, even though it's not a lot.

01:12:44.000 Give her Nevada. Okay. 1.00

01:12:46.000 Then let's give her Wisconsin, because that's the one where she's highest in the polls that we've just seen. 1.00

01:12:50.000 Okay. Puts her at 242. 0.79

01:12:52.000 Okay. Let's give her Michigan. 0.99

01:12:54.000 All right. Let's give her Michigan here. 1.00

01:12:56.000 Okay. Nah, she's still at 257.

01:12:59.000 She needs all three of those.

01:13:03.000 She needs all three of those, and let's do something else.

01:13:07.000 Let's give her Pennsylvania, but... 1.00

01:13:08.000 Right, if she has Pennsylvania, she barely gets by. 1.00

01:13:11.000 But let's assume that she doesn't win one of the Midwestern states. 0.96

01:13:15.000 Let's take the lowest one, Wisconsin.

01:13:18.000 Okay? Where does she make that up? 0.93

01:13:21.000 Yeah. She can't.

01:13:23.000 Where does she make it up? People might say Georgia, North Carolina.

01:13:26.000 I mean, Arizona looks pretty...

01:13:27.000 I mean, it looked like they flipped.

01:13:29.000 It really does look like...

01:13:30.000 And that's, by the way, where she has Nevada. 1.00

01:13:34.000 Where she has Nevada, it's still not enough.

01:13:36.000 She has to get all of them.

01:13:37.000 So really, if we just go with something semi-reasonable here, as far as our presumptions, right?

01:13:43.000 There might be some variances, whether it's North Carolina, Georgia.

01:13:45.000 I don't think so. I'm giving her Nevada. 0.94

01:13:47.000 Donald Trump just needs one of the three Midwestern states.

01:13:52.000 Kamala Harris needs all three.

01:13:56.000 Does that put it into context? So when people out there say, oh, it's all lost.

01:13:59.000 Doesn't matter anyway.

01:14:00.000 We're not going to vote. I'm not saying this to shine your ass. 1.00

01:14:03.000 I'm saying this so that you can have a realistic assessment of where we are. 0.98

01:14:06.000 And by the way, things could change.

01:14:08.000 Things could shift. But to act as though this is a guaranteed lost election, I mean, it defies reason.

01:14:15.000 And I hear people out there saying that.

01:14:17.000 Yeah, and I hope that that trend is changing because I understand what happened.

01:14:21.000 We had what we thought was a guaranteed win taken away from us.

01:14:25.000 With Joe Biden basically being forced out.

01:14:28.000 And then we saw this huge Kamala bump in the media.

01:14:30.000 We called it. They're absolutely going to have to prop her up. 1.00

01:14:32.000 And everybody started going, oh, crap. 0.97

01:14:34.000 Then, finally, you're starting to see polls turn. 0.99

01:14:36.000 What we told you was just wait.

01:14:38.000 Just wait a little bit.

01:14:40.000 This will change significantly.

01:14:42.000 When people start hearing her talk, this bump is going to go away.

01:14:45.000 The race is going to get close again.

01:14:47.000 It's not just getting close, though.

01:14:48.000 It's actually looking way better for Donald Trump than I thought it would at this point.

01:14:52.000 Oh, speaking of which, I forgot.

01:14:54.000 Here we have on the ground in the swing states, none other than Thomas Finnegan.

01:15:07.000 Piss off YouTube. Piss off YouTube.

Louder with Crowder - October 09, 2024

Kamala’s Media Blitz Ends in Disaster & Major Swing State Polling Update

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