Making Sense - Sam Harris - June 17, 2019


#160 — The Revenge of History


Episode Stats

Length

57 minutes

Words per Minute

175.02678

Word Count

10,133

Sentence Count

549

Misogynist Sentences

8

Hate Speech Sentences

16


Summary

In this episode, I speak with journalists Michael Weiss and Yasha Monk about the state of global politics, the rise of right-wing populism in Europe, and the prospect that democracy could fail in the U.S. We discuss Trump and his political instincts at some length, the political liability of wokeness, the left's failure to rethink support of Chavez in Venezuela, the dangers of political polarization, the attractions of extreme partisanship, cancel culture, and other topics. This conversation was recorded about a month ago, so the recording date would explain why we might not mention the most up-to-the-minute embarrassments of basic sanity and common decency you might have noticed in the media of late or in your Twitter feed. As always, if you get value from this podcast, I encourage you to support it by becoming a subscriber at Samharris.org. We re currently making changes to the website there, and there will be more subscriber-only content coming soon, but your support is what allows me to do this without relying on outside sponsors of any kind, and without alienating sponsors who might not be as interested in my work as I'd like to be included in the making of the podcast in the future. Thanks for your support, you re helping me make sense of the world! Sam Harris - The Making Sense Podcast, by Sam Harris This is a podcast that s all about making sense, not just of things that make sense, but also of people who are making sense of things, and they can help me do that, too. - My pleasure, my pleasure, by you, my love, and I'm so much more than that, you're a good friend, too, thank you, I'm grateful to have you, and you're welcome, I'll give me a chance to help me, I say that, I appreciate you, so I'll send you a good day to me, you'll say me a cup of coffee, good night, good day, good thing, you say that I'm all of that, etc., etc., I'll say it, I love you, good things, etc. Thank you, bye, good morning, good evening, good bye, thanks, bye bye, bye... - MRS. - Sarah, Sarah & Yasha, Sarah, Cheers, Cheeeeayayayeeeee, good chance, good luck, bye? - Cheeayeee - Sarah & Joee


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.
00:00:08.820 This is Sam Harris.
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00:00:46.840 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.
00:00:49.080 This is Sam Harris.
00:00:51.720 Okay, just brief housekeeping here.
00:00:53.720 As always, if you want to hear about what I'm doing, email is the best way to do that.
00:01:00.280 So you can sign up for my newsletter at samharris.org.
00:01:03.460 I've been spending less time on social media of late, and I think that trend will probably
00:01:08.480 continue.
00:01:10.440 Let's see here.
00:01:12.320 We've got some good people coming up on the podcast.
00:01:14.680 Jared Diamond.
00:01:16.360 I just recorded an interview with him.
00:01:17.880 He has a new book.
00:01:18.520 Judea Pearl, the father of the Wall Street Journal reporter, Daniel Pearl, who was murdered by
00:01:25.180 Al-Qaeda back in 2002.
00:01:27.900 But Judea is also one of our most celebrated computer scientists.
00:01:32.500 And I've got some other good people coming up soon.
00:01:35.820 As always, if you get value from this podcast, I encourage you to support it by becoming a
00:01:41.520 subscriber at samharris.org.
00:01:43.300 We're currently making changes to the website there, and there will be more subscriber-only
00:01:49.760 content coming soon.
00:01:51.900 But your support is what allows me to do this without relying on outside sponsors of any
00:01:56.300 kind.
00:01:57.360 Which, if you knew how often I encounter people who are afraid or otherwise unwilling to say
00:02:03.200 what they really think on a topic for fear of losing their jobs or alienating sponsors,
00:02:09.320 you would know what an unusual circumstance you've helped me create here.
00:02:13.300 So again, thank you for your support.
00:02:16.580 Today I'm speaking with two people, Michael Weiss and Yasha Monk.
00:02:21.720 Michael is an investigative journalist who has covered the wars in Syria and Ukraine and
00:02:26.820 focused on Russian espionage and disinformation.
00:02:30.360 His first book was titled ISIS, Inside the Army of Terror, which he co-wrote with Hassan Hassan.
00:02:37.060 And that was a New York Times bestseller and named one of the top 10 books on terrorism
00:02:41.320 by the Wall Street Journal.
00:02:42.380 As well as one of the best books of 2015 by the Times of London.
00:02:47.840 Michael's a regular guest on CNN and MSNBC and the BBC, and he writes a column for the Daily Beast.
00:02:56.600 And Yasha Monk is a writer and academic and public speaker known for his work on the rise of populism
00:03:03.380 and the crisis of liberal democracy.
00:03:06.720 He's an associate professor of international relations at Johns Hopkins and a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund
00:03:14.560 and also a senior advisor at Protect Democracy.
00:03:17.900 He writes for The Atlantic and The New York Times,
00:03:20.540 and he also hosts the Good Fight podcast on Slate.
00:03:27.000 Yasha has written three books, Stranger in My Own Country, The Age of Responsibility,
00:03:32.920 and his latest, The People vs. Democracy, which explains the rise of populism and talks about how to renew liberal democracy.
00:03:43.860 Anyway, this conversation was recorded about a month ago.
00:03:48.880 Everything we talk about is still entirely relevant,
00:03:52.100 but the recording date would explain why we might not mention the most up-to-the-minute embarrassments of basic sanity
00:04:00.700 and common decency you might have noticed in the media of late or in your Twitter feed.
00:04:06.520 We cover a lot of ground in this conversation.
00:04:09.960 We talk about the state of global politics,
00:04:12.500 the rise of right-wing populism in Europe,
00:04:16.360 the prospect that democracy could fail in the U.S.
00:04:19.560 We discuss Trump and his political instincts at some length,
00:04:24.280 the political liability of wokeness,
00:04:27.560 the left's failure to rethink support of Chavez in Venezuela,
00:04:32.740 the dangers of political polarization,
00:04:35.160 the attractions of extreme partisanship,
00:04:39.500 cancel culture,
00:04:40.600 and other topics.
00:04:42.960 So now, without further delay,
00:04:44.920 I bring you Michael Weiss and Yasha Monk.
00:04:53.380 I'm here with Michael Weiss and Yasha Monk.
00:04:56.000 Guys, thanks for coming on the podcast.
00:04:57.860 My pleasure.
00:04:58.760 So, Michael, you have been here once before,
00:05:01.800 but Yasha, we have just met for the first time.
00:05:04.080 And I brought you guys together because I think you are both extremely astute political minds,
00:05:11.240 and I was surprised to learn you two have never met.
00:05:14.280 So I picture you both impaneled at the same conferences.
00:05:18.320 But I thought we could talk about just areas of mutual concern.
00:05:23.860 You know, I have a few nouns floating around in my head that I think we can connect.
00:05:29.800 Things like liberal and illiberal democracy, populism, Trumpism,
00:05:36.060 all of these trends that make me wonder about the political landscape now,
00:05:41.300 both at home and abroad, and where this is all headed.
00:05:44.000 Maybe Islamism will come into the picture.
00:05:47.760 But it seems that we can take very little for granted right now, politically,
00:05:52.260 and that we're now part of history in a way that hadn't been so obvious a couple of years ago.
00:05:58.760 So I want to say we, those of us privileged to be in the West who could have imagined that they were not part of history at some point in their lives.
00:06:04.700 So I guess I'll start with you, Yasha.
00:06:09.400 What do you, first, for those who don't know you, what do you focus on,
00:06:14.080 and what are your foremost concerns at the moment?
00:06:17.580 You know, I started worrying about the state of our democracies sort of before it was cool.
00:06:24.160 I saw the rise of far-right populist parties in various European countries throughout the early 2000s.
00:06:30.860 You know, I observed things like the appeal of Sarah Palin in 2008 here in the United States.
00:06:37.720 I did some survey work with a colleague we're about to for that showed that
00:06:41.020 people give a lot less importance to living in a democracy than they used to,
00:06:44.660 that they're more open to certain authoritarian alternatives to democracy even.
00:06:49.120 So I sort of connected the dots and started shouting into the wilderness, saying,
00:06:53.560 guys, we've got to be worried about this.
00:06:57.440 Perhaps our democracies aren't really stable, and people said to me, you're Cassandra,
00:07:03.300 and I said, Cassandra was right, damn it.
00:07:06.000 So that was sort of my life.
00:07:07.300 And then 2016 came, Donald Trump won the United States, you had Brexit.
00:07:12.920 Since then, you've had the rise of people like Bolsonaro in Brazil,
00:07:17.300 or Matteo Salvini in Italy.
00:07:21.660 And so I've sort of become, over the last couple of years, one of the sort of chief populism
00:07:28.340 explainers, I suppose.
00:07:31.340 Are you a political scientist?
00:07:32.580 What's your actual background?
00:07:34.000 I'm a political scientist by background.
00:07:35.280 I studied history as an undergrad, and then got bored of that.
00:07:39.160 So I did more history of political thought.
00:07:41.820 And then I thought, those texts are really interesting, but I kind of want to think
00:07:44.700 about how the world should be in my own way.
00:07:47.200 So I started doing a sort of political philosophy, and then I thought, well, it's nice to think
00:07:51.760 about what the world should be like, but actually, there's really important things going on
00:07:55.780 and how it's changing right now.
00:07:56.940 I don't think people are seeing that.
00:07:58.420 So now, I suppose, I'm just a sort of general-purpose political scientist.
00:08:02.280 Right, right.
00:08:03.600 Okay, Michael, who are you, and what are you worried about?
00:08:06.620 Well, like Yasha, I suppose I specialize in catastrophe studies.
00:08:10.440 I actually, I think if there's a theme to the work that I've done as a journalist, it's
00:08:17.560 looking at totalitarianism and some of its lesser offshoots.
00:08:23.200 So obviously, I wrote this book on ISIS, which was a deep dive into Middle Eastern jihad
00:08:29.580 and the wellsprings of it, both theological but also materialist.
00:08:34.400 I mean, the last time you had me on, we talked at length about why people were joining this
00:08:37.520 organization.
00:08:38.120 Not always because they were fundamentalists or they had been ideologically brainwashed.
00:08:42.440 There were a lot of different drivers.
00:08:43.460 It's because they're poor, right?
00:08:44.640 That's the only explanation.
00:08:46.220 Is that correct?
00:08:46.980 Nutella and Grand Theft Auto, that was the big lore.
00:08:50.020 I'm glad we have a meeting of the minds here on that topic.
00:08:52.120 Yeah.
00:08:53.240 And now, I mean, well, actually, I shouldn't say this.
00:08:56.240 Before I was even interested in the region at all, I was more interested in communism, Soviet
00:09:03.120 totalitarianism.
00:09:04.000 I had done a lot of, as an amateur, I mean, in college and then post-college.
00:09:08.120 Reading on Soviet history, Soviet literature, and also the debates that had been taking
00:09:13.820 place in the West about what this represented.
00:09:17.500 I have a sideline hobby in New York intellectuals who congregated around partisan review in the
00:09:23.060 30s and 40s.
00:09:24.020 And I always find myself coming back to their polemics and their essays.
00:09:26.740 And I never thought after, well, I suppose I didn't come into a political consciousness
00:09:32.260 in 1991.
00:09:33.580 But certainly when I was in university, these things were dead and buried, right?
00:09:40.240 It was the end of history was definitely in the ascendant as a kind of conceit in political
00:09:45.700 science, even though there were plenty of people who were pushing back against it, saying this
00:09:49.480 is nonsense.
00:09:50.200 History doesn't come to an end.
00:09:51.460 And look at what was happening in the Balkans.
00:09:52.880 And so in many ways, I suppose the tie that binds my intellectual fascination is movements
00:10:00.720 that ought to have been consigned to the dustbin of history, but keep coming back around for
00:10:06.520 whatever reason and reinventing themselves and how they reinvent themselves.
00:10:10.060 So, you know, we bandy around words like fascism and now socialism has become au courant again.
00:10:18.820 But what does it really mean?
00:10:20.120 And how are these things being used and deployed in the 21st century context as opposed to the
00:10:24.520 20th century?
00:10:25.640 Right.
00:10:26.000 I mean, maybe we should define or unpack that phrase, the end of history, which I know you
00:10:30.740 touch in your book.
00:10:32.480 This is due to a very influential article by Francis Fukuyama and then a book by that title.
00:10:38.340 I don't know how he's weathered the disconfirmation of his thesis, but Yasha, do you want to tell
00:10:43.660 us what is meant by that phrase?
00:10:45.820 Yeah, I mean, the idea of the end of history became a sort of meme before we started really
00:10:49.400 talking about memes in everyday speech.
00:10:52.240 And I think a lot of people caricature what Francis Fukuyama was arguing in big ways.
00:10:56.820 But basically, you know, he published this article in The National Interest in, I think,
00:11:02.720 the summer of 1989 saying that ideologically liberal democracy has won.
00:11:07.760 That the idea of self-determination and individual liberty no longer has real competitors because
00:11:15.700 the Soviet Union has been discredited, fascism has been discredited.
00:11:20.280 The, you know, Islamic regime and Iran does not offer an alternative that's appealing to
00:11:27.040 most people in the world.
00:11:28.160 And so even though, as he put it in that article, there's still going to be historical events that
00:11:34.780 will be recorded in the annual chronicle of foreign affairs, you know, in the larger Hegelian
00:11:41.540 sense, in the larger sense of what history is headed towards, history has ended.
00:11:46.540 And I sort of always like to defend Fukuyama because, you know, when I was a grad student in
00:11:51.280 political science at Harvard in the late 2000s, people laughed at Fukuyama.
00:11:57.740 They didn't take him seriously.
00:11:58.880 They didn't take the idea of the end of history seriously.
00:12:01.220 But I learned as not gospel truth, but certainly something that we believed in, an article by
00:12:09.440 two political scientists who would never use grandiloquent claims like the end of history,
00:12:14.160 saying once a country has changed governments for free and fair elections a couple of times,
00:12:19.840 and once it's reached a GDP per capita of about $14,000 a year, it was consolidated.
00:12:25.580 It was safe.
00:12:26.440 You no longer had to worry about democracy.
00:12:28.440 It would basically be a democracy for them.
00:12:31.100 And there was every bit as much a claim about the end of history as what Fukuyama ever said.
00:12:38.080 And I think that's no longer true.
00:12:39.760 We now have sort of the theory-busting cases that show that you can have democracies that
00:12:45.980 look like that, that turn into dictatorships.
00:12:48.920 What are some of those cases?
00:12:50.760 So the most obvious case is Hungary.
00:12:52.540 I was actually there a couple of months ago.
00:12:55.740 So if you remember the famous speech by Winston Churchill in 1946, an iron curtain is descending
00:13:00.660 across the center of Europe from Szczecin in the Baltic to Trieste in the Adriatic.
00:13:04.660 Like, I sort of noticed that you can now drive along that old iron curtain through Poland
00:13:09.460 and Hungary to Austria and Italy and never leave a country ruled by authoritarian populists.
00:13:16.560 And now, in some countries like Austria and Italy, there's clearly still democracy,
00:13:20.280 and the governments are undermining that in certain ways.
00:13:23.260 In other places like Poland and Hungary, democracy is really on the line.
00:13:27.560 And when I was in Schopron, a small Western city in Hungary in March, I was struck by the
00:13:34.600 fact that people were afraid to talk to me.
00:13:37.120 You know, you talk to ordinary people in the street and you say, hi, I'm doing a documentary
00:13:41.520 for the BBC.
00:13:42.180 Can I speak to you?
00:13:42.980 I'm like, no, no, no, no.
00:13:44.260 And you put the microphone away and say, look, you know, I'm not going to use your name.
00:13:47.840 We're not going to show this.
00:13:50.820 But can you just talk to me?
00:13:52.300 What do you think of a government?
00:13:53.400 Oh, it's terrible.
00:13:54.100 It's terrible.
00:13:54.540 But if I tell you that, I might lose my job tomorrow.
00:13:56.620 And even interestingly, the people who support the government are afraid to talk to you because
00:14:01.120 they think if they somehow end up saying one critical thing, or perhaps we sort of selectively
00:14:05.960 edit to make them say something that they're not actually saying, they're going to get in
00:14:09.740 huge trouble.
00:14:10.360 So that culture of fear in the heart of Europe, in a country that's a member of the European
00:14:16.140 Union, is absolutely striking.
00:14:19.820 And, you know, it's because somebody came in as a populist saying, all of the political
00:14:26.280 elites are corrupt.
00:14:28.080 I alone truly represent the people.
00:14:31.160 Trust me to solve all your problems.
00:14:33.340 I'm going to return power to you.
00:14:35.540 And instead, what they've done is to abolish independent institutions, to undermine individual
00:14:41.440 rights, to put loyalists into the courts and the state media and the Electoral Commission.
00:14:46.980 And even for Viktor Orban was definitely elected democratically in 2010, it's now no longer
00:14:54.100 possible to remove him by democratic means.
00:14:57.460 And Hungary is a country that does have more than two changes of government for free and
00:15:01.820 fair elections in the past.
00:15:02.780 It has about five.
00:15:03.880 It has a GDP per capita of just over $14,000 a year.
00:15:06.840 So that's the most striking case.
00:15:10.280 And also what's interesting to me is Hungary and Poland, the leadership in both of these
00:15:14.560 countries had come from this anti-totalitarian or anti-communist tradition, right?
00:15:20.140 And they have diverged from the inevitable liberal paradise that was meant to descend upon
00:15:26.060 all of us to become more right-wing authoritarian populists.
00:15:30.400 But still, within the context of how they see their national destiny, it's still being fought
00:15:35.700 as though it was 1986, right?
00:15:38.960 The people who informed, the people who worked with the Soviet satellite governments and all
00:15:44.380 the rest of it, that's still used as a cudgel to smash their opponents.
00:15:48.120 So that's another interesting aspect of all of this.
00:15:50.700 These debates were not completely settled when we thought they were.
00:15:56.200 And all of the factionalism and the intramural fighting that came out of what was.
00:16:02.580 I mean, you know, you had all of these arguments before 89, like what was the main driver of
00:16:08.620 dissidents in this region?
00:16:11.340 You know, the Catholic Church played a role.
00:16:13.640 Some people tend to over-exaggerate that role.
00:16:15.460 Some people tend to discount it.
00:16:17.600 But now, really, it's almost a fraternal split.
00:16:21.880 The anti-communist movement has now shattered into a million pieces.
00:16:26.200 You have your liberals.
00:16:27.320 You have your socialists.
00:16:29.060 You have your conservatives, center-right conservatives.
00:16:31.000 And now you have, you know, your Viktor Orbans, who are essentially dictators-in-waiting, if not
00:16:37.000 already so.
00:16:38.840 So how paranoid would it be to draw any kind of lesson from those examples for the U.S.?
00:16:46.440 Like I once had, you know, this was early on when the full hysteria of Trump's election
00:16:53.800 was upon us.
00:16:54.580 But I remember I had the historian Timothy Snyder on the podcast.
00:16:57.680 And, you know, he's been not at all shy about drawing a very straight line between the example
00:17:05.380 of any failed democracy and the prospects that ours could fail under Trump.
00:17:10.740 He has these very vivid anecdotes of, you know, people going to the polls for the last time,
00:17:16.260 not knowing it's going to be the last time, you know.
00:17:18.640 And yet, needless to say, the pushback you get from Trumpists is excruciating whenever
00:17:26.100 you air those concerns.
00:17:28.060 And, again, I think the stupor of the end-of-history assumption has not totally lifted for me.
00:17:35.620 I mean, it does feel impossible on some level that America could ever go down that path that
00:17:43.260 we just sketched or noticed in other democracies.
00:17:46.740 How do you guys feel about that?
00:17:48.360 Well, I think it depends on the exact nature of the parallel you draw.
00:17:52.920 I respect Tim Snyder a lot, and I think he's done very important work.
00:17:56.680 I also have some important disagreements with him, and one of those is about how useful
00:18:00.780 it is to draw the analogy to fascism.
00:18:04.060 I think fascism was, in many ways, quite different.
00:18:06.440 One of the differences is that a lot of fascists quite openly opposed democracy.
00:18:11.500 They said, look, all of this democracy, people squabbling with each other, this sort of bourgeois
00:18:16.540 idea is really bad.
00:18:18.600 We need an authoritarian government.
00:18:20.620 We need a hierarchical government.
00:18:22.540 And then they paraded in the streets with brown shirts and, you know, little sticks of wood
00:18:29.520 on fire.
00:18:30.480 Now, if that was the situation, then it would be easy to recognize.
00:18:33.420 Aren't there elements of Trump's behavior that echo that?
00:18:37.240 I think the elements are cultural more than, I mean, look, if this was really fascism, and
00:18:42.760 I'm not, by the way, I'm not one of these people who thinks, oh, America is going to be
00:18:45.500 forever immune to these diseases and pathologies.
00:18:48.780 No way.
00:18:49.440 It can happen here.
00:18:50.840 I just don't think it's necessarily happening now.
00:18:53.340 And the answer to that is, look at the institutions.
00:18:56.500 We've had an election since Donald Trump.
00:18:58.540 The Republican Party got pretty trounced in Congress.
00:19:02.260 This investigation, which he has tried by hook or by crook to obstruct and dismantle,
00:19:07.840 meaning the Mueller investigation, still made it to completion.
00:19:11.680 The report still came out.
00:19:13.300 Yes, there are shenanigans happening between the White House and, you know, the special counsel's
00:19:17.960 office, but we still have a picture of a deeply dysfunctional presidency.
00:19:21.900 So all of his attempts, whether by Twitter, whether by mobilizing, you know, the real angry
00:19:27.600 fanatical base that still supports him and will support him no matter what he does, American
00:19:33.280 liberal values, American, the resilience in American society has bitten back.
00:19:39.660 And I mean, I don't, this is not to say I actually happen to think he has a fairly okay chance
00:19:44.100 of winning re-election in 2020.
00:19:46.120 A lot of that has to do, though, with what the Democratic Party is going to represent.
00:19:49.200 Yeah, I fear it's more than okay.
00:19:51.780 At this point, I would bet on it.
00:19:53.260 I mean, we still do have an independent judiciary.
00:19:55.800 We still do have...
00:19:57.220 Well, so I think they are more pessimistic, right?
00:19:59.820 So I think, look, we're talking about Hungary, right?
00:20:04.000 And we're talking about fascism.
00:20:05.580 Comparing it to Hitler, I think, is unhelpful in all kinds of ways.
00:20:08.220 Yeah, completely.
00:20:09.000 Comparing it to Hungary is in some important ways also wrong.
00:20:11.700 I mean, one of the things that I was struck by when I was in Chopron is that people had
00:20:15.620 real fear about losing their jobs because a lot of them either worked for the state or
00:20:19.620 in indirect ways, the job depended from the state.
00:20:22.420 They worked for a little contractor who did most of their work for the local town and things
00:20:27.220 like that.
00:20:28.260 The United States are very different in those ways, right?
00:20:30.660 It's a much bigger country, a much richer country, a country with more independent power
00:20:36.620 centers.
00:20:37.860 In Hungary, most newspapers live to some extent from government advertising.
00:20:42.240 So you can not just take over the important state broadcasting agencies, but you can basically
00:20:48.180 force the private media to follow your line as well by taking away advertising of a criticizer.
00:20:54.720 You can't do that in the United States.
00:20:55.880 We've had a very active press in the last two or three years.
00:20:58.100 But it's done, along with some very silly op-eds, some of the best reporting work in the history
00:21:04.480 of the United States.
00:21:05.280 And unlike in Hungary, people can't shut up about how much they hate Donald Trump.
00:21:09.520 They're outspoken in their criticism of this government.
00:21:12.060 Now, at the same time, I do think it's important to see the parallels.
00:21:15.880 And I see two big parallels.
00:21:17.880 The first is in the nature of the movement we're facing right now.
00:21:23.340 So what populists do is to say that they and they alone represent the people.
00:21:31.500 So they promise to represent the people, which means they promise to be more truly democratic.
00:21:37.060 But they don't acknowledge the existence of any power centers independent of them.
00:21:44.320 And they don't understand that people can have different political views and still retain
00:21:50.740 full stake in our society.
00:21:54.500 And both of those claims are very, very dangerous because it's why one populist after another
00:21:59.400 starts to vilify and marginalize minorities, whether religious or ethnic.
00:22:05.060 And it's why they cannot accept the rule of law, why they cannot accept the existence of
00:22:10.100 an independent judiciary.
00:22:11.000 And so when you look at the rhetoric of Orban in Hungary, of Erdogan in Turkey, or of Donald
00:22:17.580 Trump here in the United States, them calling opposition parties traitors, them calling the
00:22:23.500 media the enemies of the people.
00:22:26.120 This started even before the election, where he was open-minded as to whether or not he would
00:22:31.720 accept the results of the election if he lost, right?
00:22:34.980 Right.
00:22:35.180 And he was calling for the imprisonment of his rival.
00:22:39.620 And encouraging people to physically assault journalists who are covering him critically,
00:22:44.400 which is to say, honestly, enemy of the people.
00:22:47.220 A lot of these tropes, which are not accidental, I don't think, particularly, you know, to my
00:22:51.780 mind, the most dangerous thing that this president still poses is Bannon has gone from the White
00:22:55.760 House, but Bannonism is still very much there.
00:22:58.240 And you see now, he's gone to Europe to try and essentially export his political savvy.
00:23:05.280 I mean, this whole idea, this Breitbartian notion, you know, politics is downstream from
00:23:10.160 culture.
00:23:10.800 It's very important.
00:23:12.020 Like I say, I think Trump is much more effective as a cultural reactionary than as a political
00:23:17.400 one.
00:23:17.760 And that's because as a political neophyte, I mean, his first office was president of the
00:23:21.860 United States.
00:23:22.520 He doesn't know how the system works.
00:23:24.000 He is completely befuddled by the fact that he can't simply order his attorney general
00:23:28.940 to investigate his enemies and have that done the next day.
00:23:32.260 He is astounded at the fact that the White House counsel cannot terminate a special counsel
00:23:37.200 investigation into obstruction of justice and Russian interference.
00:23:40.160 And like the snap of his fingers, Thanos-like, this gets done.
00:23:43.740 That to me suggests, and that's not to say that a simpleton or somebody who's completely
00:23:47.740 uninitiated into the vagaries of American politics is not dangerous in his own right.
00:23:52.680 This guy absolutely is.
00:23:54.440 But again, what worries me more is, you know, the rise in race hatred, the rise in anti-Semitic
00:24:00.420 hate incidents, particularly in places like New York.
00:24:03.860 And people argue about, well, is Donald Trump responsible for this?
00:24:07.240 I do think he's created the mood music, the atmospherics for this.
00:24:11.300 I don't like the word polarization because it doesn't really adequately describe what we're
00:24:15.560 facing.
00:24:15.920 But when, you know, he describes out-and-out fascists, marching to the tune of Jews will
00:24:21.400 not replace us, as there's some fine people on both sides and traffics in this kind of
00:24:25.440 moral equivalent, he is giving license to the worst elements of the society.
00:24:29.940 He is giving them a sense of impunity that they can carry on in a way that they hadn't
00:24:33.520 ever been able to do before, and now they have the imprimatur of the presidency with which
00:24:38.320 to do it.
00:24:38.980 That, to me, is the most dangerous thing.
00:24:40.400 Although, just on that point, in his defense there, and I rarely come to his defense, if
00:24:45.840 you look at the full video from that press conference where he supposedly said nothing
00:24:51.680 to denounce white supremacy, he does denounce white supremacy.
00:24:56.580 The problem with the left now is that they're so scattershot in their attacks on him.
00:25:03.660 You don't have to lie to paint Trump as a racist or a bigot or a grifter or a con man because
00:25:09.880 he's undoubtedly all of those things, but in that case, there's a few things muddy in
00:25:14.280 the waters.
00:25:14.740 One is that you had Antifa very likely initiating the violence against neo-Nazis who had a permit
00:25:22.320 to march, right?
00:25:23.860 There was violence coming from both sides, and that's not to say that Trump hasn't, as you
00:25:30.200 say, created the mood music for racism and white supremacy, but I think we have to be careful
00:25:36.360 on every one of these points because the amount of energy that Trumpistan draws from every
00:25:43.480 error here, they can just point to the video of him decrying white supremacy.
00:25:48.860 Sure, but this is also a man who took a very long time and tried to dodge at every opportunity
00:25:54.340 the opportunity to denounce David Duke.
00:25:57.300 And the reason for it was, again, it doesn't mean that he's pathologically...
00:25:59.960 Well, he claimed not to know who David Duke was when we do that with a lawsuit.
00:26:03.020 Which was complete bullshit.
00:26:03.860 But understand the motivation here.
00:26:05.640 This is not, and to Yasha's point about these facile comparisons to Hitler and the Third
00:26:10.860 Reich and really deeply motivated, bulk-style fascism.
00:26:15.860 For Trump, it's narcissism, right?
00:26:17.740 David Duke and white supremacists, they support me, and I like anybody who supports me and who
00:26:22.260 flatters me.
00:26:22.900 So why am I going to go out of my way to denounce these people, even if I don't really like the
00:26:26.600 cut of their jit?
00:26:27.160 But that itself, again, goes to this kind of cultural reaction.
00:26:30.840 He's built a personality cult around himself.
00:26:33.680 And I do think it's important that we don't get caught up in the details of those things.
00:26:38.440 You're right that we have to be very careful about the claims we make.
00:26:41.440 But I do think there's a larger story to how he thinks about politics and how he's trying
00:26:46.900 to undermine the democratic system.
00:26:48.640 Now, lock her up is an incredibly extreme statement.
00:26:52.660 I mean, the very basis of any democracy is that you might think of your political competitors
00:27:01.480 as adversaries who you really want to be.
00:27:04.280 But you have to recognize their legitimacy in saying, I'm going to go and put her in prison
00:27:09.380 is very extreme.
00:27:11.340 The fact that at one point in the debate, he seemed to call in doubt whether he would
00:27:16.020 accept the outcome of the election.
00:27:17.440 There's still a very real question in my mind about whether Trump would have acknowledged
00:27:21.700 the legitimacy of a 2016 election if he had lost it, and what he will do in 2020 if he
00:27:28.280 does lose.
00:27:29.280 So I think it's important to go back to the larger question we're asking about, okay, so
00:27:32.340 to what extent are we seeing the system under threat here in the United States?
00:27:36.740 Now, you have a similar set of forces pushing against it, as in Hungary.
00:27:42.340 You have older democracy, a more affluent democracy, trying to defend itself.
00:27:49.740 So how is it going?
00:27:51.400 Well, the first thing I would say is that, as you said earlier, Michael, Trump is not a
00:27:59.200 very sophisticated authoritarian populist.
00:28:02.140 Now, that both means it is less likely that things will go deeply wrong in the next couple
00:28:07.440 of years.
00:28:07.920 It also means that if we get a smarter, more strategic, more ruthless incarnation of the
00:28:17.360 same energy, it might be able to do a whole lot more damage than we've seen the last couple
00:28:22.860 of years.
00:28:23.200 The second thing I would say is that if you go back and read the New York Times, the Wall
00:28:31.840 Street Journal, about Turkey in 2003, in 2005, a few years, three years, even five years into
00:28:41.180 Erdogan, even 10 years into Erdogan being the prime minister at the time of Turkey.
00:28:48.060 And they're all saying Erdogan is deepening democracy in Turkey.
00:28:51.580 He's finally bringing a form of moderate Islam into the Turkish government, overcoming some
00:28:57.640 of the very real discrimination against religious Muslims in Turkey.
00:29:01.860 This is a Muslim form of Christian democracy that's going to give us actual democracy.
00:29:06.600 Smart people thought that for many years, not seeing the ways in which Erdogan was undermining
00:29:11.140 democracy and well on his way towards becoming a dictator.
00:29:14.960 So let's not prejudge this.
00:29:16.720 It is not, in none of these cases, not in Venezuela, not in Turkey, does a populist come
00:29:21.620 in and three years in, it's obvious it's a dictatorship.
00:29:25.000 It takes a long time.
00:29:26.320 And so then look at what the institutions actually are doing right now.
00:29:32.540 You both have just put your finger on the thing that worries me, that to my eye, Trump
00:29:37.780 is amazingly unpersuasive.
00:29:42.580 He's not ideological.
00:29:43.680 He's not a clever totalitarian in the making.
00:29:47.080 He is, as you said, Michael, just a black hole of narcissism.
00:29:52.640 And that is the thing that determines everything he does.
00:29:55.680 And it just so happens that aligns with an authoritarian shtick as a politician.
00:30:00.080 But it's just so astonishing to me that he has succeeded to the degree that he has, and
00:30:06.020 that he has this personality cult around him where it's not even that he has policies that
00:30:11.360 people are so enamored of.
00:30:13.460 They just, on some level, they're enamored of him as this anti-norm, you know, or this
00:30:20.140 norm-wrecking machine.
00:30:22.340 And I don't know if it's just kind of the spirit of reality television, whether people just like,
00:30:27.380 they just want to tune in for the next episode, and they just like that it's exciting, and
00:30:31.960 the liberal media has gone berserk in response.
00:30:34.520 But the fact that we're here with someone who so obviously lacks the real tools of political
00:30:42.440 genius and insight into how things work, you know, that's scary.
00:30:47.640 I think what he was actually very masterful at tapping into is the amygdala of American
00:30:52.900 politics is to say, the establishment is corrupt.
00:30:56.560 The establishment is cheating everybody, right?
00:30:59.140 This whole system is rigged.
00:31:00.820 And what he did very cleverly, and I don't credit him with the kind of political savvy
00:31:06.660 that like a Sorkov in Russia has, who really sort of has a playfulness with which he plies
00:31:13.800 this authoritarian mindset.
00:31:15.400 With Trump, though, it was, hey, you know, I'm already corrupt, but at least I'm telling
00:31:20.060 you, these guys, they're the hypocrites.
00:31:22.340 Don't trust them.
00:31:23.100 I cheated the system, let me show you how to cheat it too, or let me show you how it
00:31:27.620 really works.
00:31:28.700 And this resonated so well with so many people, not even Trump supporters.
00:31:31.780 But that's such an amazing point, because he's, so he's, he objectively lies more than
00:31:36.500 any person anyone has ever seen, and yet that line showed up as a kind of authenticity.
00:31:43.360 Yeah, exactly.
00:31:44.500 That's exactly it.
00:31:45.300 He's honest about the corruption in the system.
00:31:47.000 Yeah, it's like, there are no rules.
00:31:48.960 Watch me break all the rules.
00:31:50.480 I'm the only one who'll tell you that.
00:31:51.420 His best moment in the primaries was when Hillary Clinton was asked why she attended
00:31:55.560 his wedding, and he was asked why he had invited Hillary Clinton.
00:31:59.800 Right.
00:32:00.720 And Hillary Clinton, with a tortured look, said something like, well, I thought it would
00:32:04.520 be fun.
00:32:05.900 And everybody knows that Hillary Clinton's idea of fun is not to go to Donald Trump's wedding.
00:32:10.460 It's bullshit, right?
00:32:11.620 And Trump said, well, I'm a real estate developer in New York, I got to get along with all these
00:32:16.620 people.
00:32:17.600 So he was actually admitting to corruption of a certain form.
00:32:22.220 He certainly was admitting to taking part in the corruption of the system.
00:32:25.580 Yeah.
00:32:26.160 But he was at one level honest about it.
00:32:28.600 He said, well, I did it because I had to get along with influential people.
00:32:31.460 Also, when she said you haven't paid taxes in however many years, he said, that makes
00:32:35.300 me smart.
00:32:36.080 Now, prior to Donald Trump, would any American politician stand up at a debate and say, I've
00:32:41.260 never paid any tax money in 10 years or whatever it was.
00:32:44.560 No.
00:32:45.120 But for him, not only was that a sort of impulse response, but he really does, and this I
00:32:51.640 think he was right about, there are Americans out here who don't want to pay taxes.
00:32:55.820 They're like, wait a minute.
00:32:56.680 This guy's a gazillionaire.
00:32:58.460 He claims he made all his money himself, which is not true.
00:33:01.620 He inherited a lot of it, certainly born with a silver spoon in his mouth.
00:33:05.000 But he's cheating the system.
00:33:06.960 The system that has cheated us, maybe what we need is a con artist and a fraud.
00:33:11.420 But somebody who says, who sort of pulls back the curtain and shows the Wizard of Oz,
00:33:16.220 right?
00:33:16.500 Or at least pretends to, which is what he really does.
00:33:18.800 He's not actually showing the heart of corruption in the American system.
00:33:22.020 He is pretending to show it.
00:33:23.920 That resonated very powerfully with a lot of people.
00:33:26.000 And we can get into this conversation later if you want, and I'll hold my thoughts on it.
00:33:29.500 But what you're now seeing on the left in this country is an attempt, I think, at least certain
00:33:35.760 quadrants of the left, to replicate Trumpism, but from a progressive point of view, this sort
00:33:41.200 of populist rise.
00:33:42.400 And you're seeing this all over Europe.
00:33:43.780 In fact, I just read a piece in the FT, Financial Times, about Bannon trying to create
00:33:48.840 a kind of academy for the alt-right in an abandoned or old monastery in Europe.
00:33:53.840 And he said, you know, one of the things that he's alighted upon in Europe is this fusion
00:33:59.680 politics.
00:34:00.500 It's sometimes called red-brownism, although that's complicated too, for reasons we just
00:34:03.600 discussed, why we shouldn't traffic in these sort of outmoded comparisons to fascism, communism.
00:34:08.120 But anyway, you know, in Italy, for instance, left-wing populism, right-wing populism, they
00:34:14.360 find a happy marriage together in Salvini, right?
00:34:17.420 And Salvini, by the way, people forget, I mean, Legon Nord, he founded the first Stalinist
00:34:24.760 faction in Milan of that party.
00:34:27.260 So he's had a kind of ideological promiscuity, similar to those in the 20th century who made
00:34:33.080 the transition from one extreme to the other.
00:34:35.340 But the point is, Bannon, more than anybody on a cultural level, understands, look, the
00:34:40.600 old categories don't matter anymore.
00:34:42.420 It's not Republican, Democrat, it's not even liberal, conservative.
00:34:45.480 It's who wants to tear it all up and start again.
00:34:48.440 And that can apply just as easily on the right as it can on the left.
00:34:52.400 That's what I think Trump is tapping into.
00:34:54.860 And I think, again, to me, the danger is the left overreaction to Trump threatens to do
00:35:00.900 the same thing.
00:35:02.000 Well, there's different ways of framing that.
00:35:04.900 I mean, my fear is in part a kind of left authoritarianism, and we're seeing in Venezuela
00:35:11.780 that that can be very disastrous.
00:35:14.540 In the American context, I think that's a lot less likely.
00:35:17.260 So I'm not worried about Bernie Sanders becoming president.
00:35:20.420 I'm worried about Bernie Sanders being the candidate of a Democratic Party, ensuring that
00:35:28.140 Donald Trump gets a second term.
00:35:30.040 So, you know, there's multiple dangers there.
00:35:32.240 One point about the way in which Trump profits from this elitist, which is that it's sometimes
00:35:42.400 puzzling, I think, to understand why things that he says that most Americans really do
00:35:47.340 dislike.
00:35:47.840 And there's good evidence that they dislike that when he calls Mexicans rapists and so
00:35:52.160 on and so forth.
00:35:52.860 That is not something that the majority of Americans wants to have any kind of track with.
00:35:58.240 But what happens is that all of the people who the majority of Americans hate condemn Trump.
00:36:05.580 And they have good reason to condemn Trump when he says those things.
00:36:08.820 But they look at that and they say, do I like what Trump said?
00:36:11.380 No.
00:36:12.320 But if all of those guys hate him, there must be something right with him.
00:36:16.320 It's a very weird dynamic.
00:36:18.220 And I don't actually know how to get out of it.
00:36:19.900 I don't think people should shut up about, you know, should stop condemning terrible things
00:36:25.000 he says.
00:36:26.220 But there is a strange way in which it helps him.
00:36:29.920 Because all of the Democrats and all of the sort of more moderate Republicans standing up
00:36:34.720 and saying, how dare you say this, makes people look at him and say, oh, yeah, he is the
00:36:39.320 one who actually is willing to say things and who's not like the rest of them.
00:36:43.220 So perhaps there's something to him.
00:36:45.520 Yeah, well, I do see that directed at me occasionally by people who are smart.
00:36:51.080 But there's a delight.
00:36:52.900 Again, we're more than two years in and I'm still mystified by this.
00:36:56.100 But it seems like a kind of nihilistic delight in just getting a rise out of his political
00:37:02.100 opponents that his fans like.
00:37:04.760 This notion of Trump derangement syndrome.
00:37:07.240 It's that it's created a situation where apparently there's nothing he could do that's
00:37:13.800 sufficiently odious to cancel the delight that his fans feel in watching people react
00:37:22.060 to it.
00:37:22.860 It's kind of a superpower that he's got politically.
00:37:25.520 Or in watching his critics be proven wrong.
00:37:27.560 Well, yeah.
00:37:27.960 Well, that's why I think it's mission critical to never be wrong.
00:37:31.100 But if you say if you say he didn't condemn white supremacy and then we can go to the
00:37:35.620 tape and he did that undoes 100 good things you might have done.
00:37:39.580 For me, it was more good people on both sides.
00:37:42.720 I mean, right.
00:37:43.440 The marchers in Charlottesville find me a good person.
00:37:45.640 But let's take a simple example of what you were just saying, Sam.
00:37:49.200 I mean, I was on Twitter, you know, a few weeks ago and everybody was as I was reading
00:37:54.800 it, reporting that Trump had said, oh, Boeing, they should just rebrand the 737 MAX and put
00:38:01.660 it back into business.
00:38:03.180 And I was like, well, that really seems ridiculous.
00:38:05.240 And I actually went to Trump's Twitter tweet and it turns out that he had said we should
00:38:09.540 fix it and then rebrand it, which is a silly thing for a president to say.
00:38:13.660 I don't know why the president of the United States should be giving branding advice to
00:38:16.400 Boeing, but it's very much not what I had gotten the impression on my Twitter feed.
00:38:21.960 Fixing it is the crucial thing.
00:38:22.640 It's definitely a case when I thought, look, Trump says so many odious things.
00:38:26.620 Do we really need to exaggerate his silly tweet about Boeing to get like a little point on
00:38:30.880 him?
00:38:31.180 Like this really is counterproductive.
00:38:33.920 Yeah.
00:38:34.000 And, you know, look, the extremists always manage to thrive and exploit the failure of
00:38:40.860 center parties, whether it's center left or center right, to address real problems in
00:38:45.640 a society.
00:38:46.600 You know, for a brief flickering moment, the British Nationalist Party did quite well, I think,
00:38:52.040 in the European parliamentary elections were going on, what, 10 years ago now.
00:38:56.360 And the reason was they were some of the only people banging on about immigration and its
00:39:01.480 discontents in the UK.
00:39:02.940 Labor and conservatives just refused to touch the issue as too hot button or whatever.
00:39:07.440 Trump, with his comments about, you know, well, somebody's doing the raping and his ridiculous
00:39:13.060 xenophobic remarks about Muslims and Mexicans, is tapping into a genuine concern a lot of Americans
00:39:19.860 have about rampant immigration or about, well, what's going to happen now that this post-Arab
00:39:25.600 Spring Middle East is on fire and we have, you know, it's give us your tired, your poor,
00:39:29.640 or we just don't know where they're coming from or what their ideological motives may
00:39:32.560 be, right?
00:39:33.300 These are legitimate concerns to have.
00:39:35.720 He's just addressing them in a sensationalistic way.
00:39:39.300 But at the same time, encoded in his commentary is, if you criticize me or you attack me for
00:39:46.600 what I'm saying, you're just, you're another exponent of political correctness.
00:39:50.660 Remember, in the primary, the first thing he did was, we do not have time, I don't have
00:39:54.340 time for total political correctness.
00:39:57.980 That's a valid argument when made by people who, in good faith, who say, yeah, I think culturally
00:40:04.240 there is something about, you know, condemning a man before all the facts are in, or jumping
00:40:09.220 the gun, or as we say on Twitter, virtue signaling when you don't even know what the hell you're
00:40:13.040 talking about.
00:40:14.160 However, this guy is not the answer.
00:40:16.320 He is not the antidote to it.
00:40:18.060 Right.
00:40:18.220 So listen, I don't want to spend all the time on Trump, and I want to swing to the left and
00:40:23.540 do a post-mortem on the pathologies we detect there.
00:40:29.640 But, Yasha, you said something that had a Snyder-esque echo, at least in my brain, which
00:40:37.860 is, should Trump get re-elected in 2020?
00:40:42.220 Well, actually, two things.
00:40:43.260 One, should he lose in 2020?
00:40:46.160 Whether he will accept the results of that loss and what that portends.
00:40:51.060 But also, should we get him for four more years?
00:40:54.060 Is there a further erosion of democracy or institutional norms that you worry about?
00:41:03.240 Or is that a paranoid bridge too far?
00:41:06.700 Well, again, it depends exactly on what you mean by that.
00:41:09.700 Look, I mean, I remember in 2016 having debates with political scientist friends of mine about
00:41:17.340 what would happen in the Republican Party if Trump won the presidency.
00:41:21.380 And there's basically optimists who said, the Republican Party, you know, these people
00:41:27.920 have a very different set of ideological beliefs.
00:41:31.340 They're going to rein him in.
00:41:33.040 They're not going to go along with what he does at all.
00:41:36.600 And then...
00:41:37.020 Yeah, I remember that.
00:41:38.080 Yeah, what happened to that?
00:41:38.980 Yeah.
00:41:39.360 And then there's pessimists like me who said, no, Trump has more support than the sort of
00:41:44.840 old Republican orthodoxy.
00:41:46.020 So over time, he's going to be able to primary people and to run his own candidates.
00:41:52.120 And it'll be a civil war in the Republican Party for four or eight years.
00:41:55.560 But it may end up being a Trumpian party.
00:41:59.080 We were both far too optimistic.
00:42:01.600 Actually, what happened is that the party grandees just rolled over and flipped.
00:42:05.780 Think of somebody like Lindsey Graham.
00:42:07.540 In 2016, I would have said, well, perhaps they'll primary Lindsey Graham.
00:42:11.100 Lindsey Graham primaried himself.
00:42:12.500 Well, just think of the fact that Trump could dance on McCain's grave while he was in advance
00:42:19.940 of his death, right?
00:42:21.040 I mean, just speak badly of a dying man who was objectively a war hero and the best friend
00:42:27.180 of Lindsey Graham, right?
00:42:28.300 Lindsey Graham.
00:42:29.120 I mean, you know, Yasha, you're here for the Milken Institute.
00:42:31.600 I moderated a panel with Lindsey Graham on it about ISIS and the threat to the Middle East
00:42:36.560 posed by ISIS.
00:42:37.520 In 2016, when Graham was one of the most outspoken anti-Trump Republicans backstage, and I've
00:42:44.620 said this publicly, so I have no problem betraying the confidence, it was Lindsey Graham on one
00:42:48.720 side, Tony Blair on the other, having a competition, an auction for self-pity as to whose party has
00:42:54.260 lost its fucking mind, you know, more, the British Labor Party or the Republican Party.
00:42:58.580 And Lindsey Graham was saying, I don't understand why we can't just chuck him out of the party
00:43:01.520 the way y'all do in the UK.
00:43:03.840 Wanted him gone from the GOP and now has become this sort of vanguard defender of the faith.
00:43:11.100 It's bizarre.
00:43:12.360 But yeah, I quite agree.
00:43:13.860 So that's extreme.
00:43:14.800 And then, you know, if you jump to what's happening with the Department of Justice, I think that's
00:43:20.220 very serious.
00:43:21.420 I mean, it is now very obvious that we have an attorney general who openly says he's the
00:43:26.220 president's lawyer, as opposed to the lawyer of the United States, who has, and I don't,
00:43:33.020 you know, I don't want to get into the Mueller report and all of that.
00:43:35.980 I was never somebody who, I thought it was very important to make sure that Mueller wasn't
00:43:39.700 fired.
00:43:40.180 I never thought that the report would show that Trump is a secret Russian spy or anything
00:43:44.360 like that, but who clearly misrepresented the nature of it.
00:43:47.960 Yeah.
00:43:48.000 You have Trump calling on investigations of his political opponents in a situation in
00:43:55.100 which some of the more reasonable people in the Department of Justice are leaving, in
00:43:59.900 which Barr is quite clearly saying he's just representing the interests of Trump.
00:44:05.520 I wouldn't be entirely astounded if there is a politically motivated investigation into
00:44:11.600 the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate or one of his close associates in a way that
00:44:17.700 can create scandals and so on.
00:44:21.420 Now, I am not saying that Trump is going to steal the election in an outright way.
00:44:26.960 I'm not saying that if he loses, he will refuse to leave the White House.
00:44:31.880 He will go and undermine the credibility and legitimacy of the system all along.
00:44:37.800 But if he's in power for four more years, and if he's succeeded by somebody who's a little
00:44:41.960 bit more popular, who is a little bit shrewder, I think it would be naive to assume that American
00:44:49.280 institutions can withstand anything.
00:44:51.220 It is interesting, though.
00:44:52.480 And I mean, I can speak with some insight here, because I still report on Syria and U.S.
00:44:58.000 policy towards Syria.
00:44:59.120 All of Trump's instincts, complete withdrawal, take the oil, you know, let the Russians sort
00:45:06.680 it out.
00:45:07.380 All of these things have actually been rebuffed, and not just once, but repeatedly.
00:45:12.400 You know, Trump campaigned on military withdrawal from Syria.
00:45:16.140 And, you know, frankly, let's just bomb the shit out of ISIS and go home.
00:45:19.900 That's not happening.
00:45:21.560 And I know for a fact it's not happening.
00:45:23.860 Policy that had been cobbled together by the Brains Trust, such as it is, with the National
00:45:30.300 Security Council and some of his Mideast hands.
00:45:32.440 Remember, there were still, at the very beginning of the administration, some good people in
00:45:35.740 government, particularly at the level of the State Department, even to the level of the
00:45:38.740 White House.
00:45:40.060 The only reason this man, I think, wasn't indicted by Mueller for flagrant obstruction of justice
00:45:45.900 is because, frankly, professionals in the White House kept him from committing overt crimes.
00:45:50.720 That's the irony.
00:45:51.100 I know you don't want to get into Mueller, but that was my takeaway.
00:45:53.300 McGahn basically said, I'm not going to do this.
00:45:57.400 Similarly, with respect to U.S. policy, maybe not at the domestic level, I know that's not
00:46:02.340 my bag, but foreign policy-wise, you know, one of his apologist's main lines is, well,
00:46:07.460 we know he didn't collude with the Russians.
00:46:08.840 We know he's no patsy of Putin.
00:46:10.700 Look at how hard this country has been on Russia, whether it be sanctions or supplying
00:46:14.920 javelin anti-tank missiles to the Ukrainians or now standing up to Putin's proxy Maduro in
00:46:20.280 Venezuela.
00:46:21.380 Well, yeah, I mean, with Venezuela accepted, where Trump has been quite outspoken, the
00:46:25.660 institutions of American government, I mean, it's very difficult to get things done.
00:46:29.760 Like, there is a Treasury Department for a reason.
00:46:31.780 Doing sanctions is not—I mean, the president can dictate policy, but the implementation of
00:46:36.140 it is everything.
00:46:37.380 We didn't lift sanctions on Russia.
00:46:39.100 We didn't recognize Crimea as Russian Federation territory.
00:46:42.000 All of the worst-case scenarios didn't come to pass because of the sort of—the staves.
00:46:50.480 And that gives me a little bit of hope and optimism.
00:46:53.140 But I do quite agree with Yasha.
00:46:54.580 Somebody more sophisticated who's seen what Trump has done in terms of tenderizing the
00:46:59.640 electorate and making the rise of a real authoritarian possible, that's the real danger.
00:47:05.140 Because, you know, it's never the first guy out the gate.
00:47:07.940 It's usually the one who follows, who has, you know, more wisdom and more experience that
00:47:13.580 you have to worry about.
00:47:15.440 All right.
00:47:15.580 Well, let's talk about the wokeness.
00:47:17.160 The wokeness on the left that is obviously on some level a response to Trump, but it predates
00:47:24.680 Trump in its concerns.
00:47:27.740 And I think we all detect that there's a problem in principle with identity politics.
00:47:33.980 But to point that out is to be convicted again and again of insensitivity with respect to
00:47:41.720 the underlying concerns like racism and gender equality and everything else that has pushed
00:47:48.820 people to identify with some subgroup first and foremost, whether defined by the color of
00:47:56.700 their skin or their gender or their sexuality.
00:47:58.940 And yet, at least to my eye, it is so obviously a losing hand to play in the current environment.
00:48:08.880 I mean, forget about the foundational ethics of it or where we want to be in 100 years as a
00:48:15.620 global civilization.
00:48:17.220 If your concern is just to bar the door to Trump in 2020, amplifying the wokeness is a disaster.
00:48:24.960 I'm going to take one narrow case.
00:48:28.040 It is totally possible for decent ethical people to disagree about what our immigration
00:48:35.200 policy should be.
00:48:36.740 And if you are going to stand on the left and equate any concern about immigration or any
00:48:42.640 concern about having a defensible border with racism every time, there are enough people
00:48:48.100 in this country who are sick of being called racist when they're not actually racist who will
00:48:52.960 vote for Trump over your woke candidate who's framing everything in terms of racism and
00:48:58.940 white supremacy.
00:49:00.380 So how do you two view the left?
00:49:04.360 And I don't know if we want to talk about specific candidates at this point, but what
00:49:07.900 are the stirrings on the left do to you at the moment?
00:49:11.040 I mean, I suppose, you know, to your point about the political non-viability of maximum wokeness,
00:49:17.640 I mean, you know, Bernie Sanders is not for open borders.
00:49:19.780 He's spoken quite clearly about this.
00:49:22.380 He's spoken about, you know, a firm immigration policy, but firm, you know, according to Bernie
00:49:27.400 Sanders.
00:49:27.900 No candidate, I think, is running on, you know, this absolute kind of utopian concern or
00:49:35.140 conceit that the United States should just let everybody in, no background checks, nothing.
00:49:40.620 Yeah, look, wokeness to me is political correctness from the 90s turbocharged and taken to really
00:49:47.780 an insane degree now.
00:49:49.080 I mean, I was in university, not in the, well, late 90s to early 2000s.
00:49:53.280 There was elements of this then, but it was the kind of thing, it was on the wane then.
00:49:57.540 It was being satirized.
00:49:59.320 You had films like PCU coming out.
00:50:01.460 The Onion was taking the piss.
00:50:03.640 The Onion still takes the piss, thank God.
00:50:05.600 But yeah, no, I mean, we were talking earlier offset about Twitter and the kind of cesspit,
00:50:10.260 almost the kind of Stasi-like mentality that persists when you, it's not even, look, it's
00:50:16.840 not even about somebody saying something really ridiculous and overtly offensive and then having
00:50:20.660 the pile-on effect.
00:50:21.860 It's trying to inject a little bit of nuance or being even at a little variance with liberal
00:50:27.440 orthodoxy can get you pilloried, you know, and publicly shamed.
00:50:31.200 And though, to my mind, the one saving grace of all of this, and Yasha, you can speak to
00:50:37.180 this because you've written about it, very online culture, as it's called, or, you know,
00:50:42.800 the internet wokeness is not at all reflective of American social reality.
00:50:49.060 So how do we know that?
00:50:50.520 Because I feel that the fact that Trump got elected without anyone realizing he was going
00:50:55.600 to win was an example of the Twitterverse being the real world, and we didn't notice it.
00:51:03.860 Well, I'm not sure, you know, on the night of the election, Nate Silver said there was
00:51:07.480 a one-third chance that Donald Trump would win it.
00:51:09.580 Well, one-third is still significant, yes.
00:51:11.420 It's very significant.
00:51:12.520 I mean, you're not going to agree to play Russian roulette two or three times, which would
00:51:16.760 give you a one-third chance of losing your life, right?
00:51:18.940 I mean, so, you know, the polls picked up what people actually thought.
00:51:22.640 And when you poll people about some of the issues that are at the center of what you
00:51:28.160 are calling wokeness, they don't have very much support at all.
00:51:31.280 So I wrote a piece in The Atlantic late last year about the number of people who think that
00:51:35.460 political correctness is now a problem in this country, and it is about 80% of Americans.
00:51:40.160 And by the way, it is a higher number of people of color in this country than of whites.
00:51:45.560 So that's a point to spell out.
00:51:47.760 I don't know if you wrote this article or not, but I remember someone, I think it's a New
00:51:52.320 York Times piece, that the woke social justice warriors are, for the most part, privileged
00:51:58.660 white people.
00:51:59.860 This is not people of color who are lining up by and large along these ideas.
00:52:04.580 Absolutely.
00:52:05.700 It is.
00:52:06.860 So what's interesting is when you look at the people who, in the words of this very, very
00:52:11.640 good hidden tribe study by an organization called More in Common, progressive activists.
00:52:16.520 It's about 8% of the population with those kinds of beliefs, and they are far, far more
00:52:21.300 likely than the general population to be white.
00:52:23.360 They're about twice as likely to earn more than $100,000 a year, but three times more
00:52:28.320 likely to have a postgraduate degree.
00:52:30.100 And of course, white people who are very liberal have a fundamental misunderstanding of what the
00:52:36.640 views of people of color in the United States are for two reasons.
00:52:39.160 First, that a lot of black people vote for the Democratic Party for the simple reason
00:52:43.320 that in its current incarnation, parts of the Republican Party really are racist.
00:52:47.280 So obviously, even a black person who's pretty conservative in all kinds of ways is not going
00:52:53.120 to vote for that party.
00:52:54.320 So a huge majority of blacks in the United States vote for the Democratic Party, but when
00:52:59.440 you ask them to self-identify as liberal, moderate, or conservative, only 27% of them say liberal.
00:53:05.660 Well, 30% say conservative, and 40% say moderate, which is really quite striking.
00:53:12.240 So we need to get out of the categories of Twitter.
00:53:16.040 We need to understand that if you're a white listener to this who probably has a good degree,
00:53:21.860 a good job, the people who you know in your world who are people of color are likely to
00:53:27.000 be pretty liberal, because most people in your world are likely to be pretty liberal.
00:53:31.760 But that is not a good stand-in for the majority of people of color in this country.
00:53:37.380 Well, and the irony of all this is the term itself, woke, began, I think, in the African-American
00:53:43.020 community.
00:53:43.780 And the idea was it's to raise consciousness about the plight of American blacks, whether
00:53:49.940 it's through police brutality, lack of employment opportunity, or the relative economic status
00:53:55.540 as compared to white America.
00:53:57.260 It has now been co-opted, or it's, I don't know to what extent, and I haven't seen any
00:54:02.840 studies on this, it's used parodically, or it's used in earnestness, but it has been
00:54:06.780 co-opted.
00:54:07.200 And I remember this because the first time I ever used it on Twitter, you know, a colleague
00:54:11.020 of mine who's black, who's very much part of what's known as black Twitter said, why
00:54:15.380 are you using this term?
00:54:16.280 I said, oh, everyone's using this term now.
00:54:17.660 She's like, ugh, it was only a matter of fucking time before they took this from us, too, in terms
00:54:21.600 of cultural appropriation.
00:54:23.520 And yeah, because when you're being beaten up or choked out by the cops, or being accused
00:54:29.180 of, you know, violent crimes you haven't committed, you don't have time to worry about a third gender
00:54:34.860 being introduced into democratic society.
00:54:37.940 You don't have time to have the kind of ridiculous, arcane debates that eat up so much time right
00:54:44.400 now.
00:54:44.660 I mean, so two funny things today on Twitter, and I couldn't help but relate the two.
00:54:48.620 One was millennial college students want to eject Camille Paglia from, I forget what the
00:54:55.420 university or the academic, that's it, right?
00:54:58.180 And number two, according to The Economist, millennials are not having sex.
00:55:01.660 I think if millennials are having more sex, they wouldn't be worried about Camille Paglia
00:55:04.820 and what she's written over the course of 25 years in a pretty accomplished academic field.
00:55:10.480 And I guarantee you, you know, the downtrodden and the oppressed, not to use that word sardonically,
00:55:16.960 but truly, don't give a shit about Camille Paglia and what academic organization she belongs
00:55:22.160 to.
00:55:22.460 So you're quite right.
00:55:23.220 It is a very privileged conceit at this point.
00:55:26.000 So here's something that I think is important, though, for making progress on these issues,
00:55:30.560 which is that we could spend a lot of time beating up on the silliest manifestations of
00:55:39.500 this extremely online Twitter phenomenon.
00:55:43.100 And that's worth doing.
00:55:43.880 I mean, I think it's important to criticize it.
00:55:45.340 It's important to point out some of the craziness.
00:55:47.560 But I think what's more important is actually to argue about what kind of country we want
00:55:52.400 and to point out the poverty and the vision of what a lot of progressives now envisage
00:56:04.300 for the United States.
00:56:05.380 And it's a poverty of ambition as well.
00:56:07.100 So what I see is, for example, in the thesis of the inevitable demographic majority, that's
00:56:16.380 one version of identity politics.
00:56:17.860 Identity politics always means very different things.
00:56:19.220 I'm careful about using the term.
00:56:20.920 What I see in it is basically saying, look, we have, you know, people of color vote for
00:56:26.440 the Democratic Party much more than white people.
00:56:28.840 They're a growing segment of the population.
00:56:30.560 So we just have to sit pretty, sit tight, and 30 or 40 years from now, we'll win every election.
00:56:36.220 Now, I think that's wrong for all kinds of empirical reasons that we could go into.
00:56:39.480 Yeah, although I'm impressed with someone who can care about the self they'll inherit
00:56:42.660 30 or 40 years from now and be motivated by that.
00:56:44.700 Well, there's a sleight of hand there where it goes from by 2044 we'll be a majority-minority
00:56:49.040 country to, well, we're sure to win the next election if we only mobilize that base,
00:56:53.120 right?
00:56:53.260 So that's sort of, you know, they pretend that you don't have to be patient until 2044.
00:56:58.060 I think it's not going to happen in 2044 either for various reasons.
00:57:01.140 But here's the most important thing.
00:57:02.540 What kind of vision is that for the country?
00:57:04.360 Do we want a society where 30 years from now I'll be able to walk down the street and
00:57:10.940 observe, oh, you're black, you must be voting for the Democrats.
00:57:13.520 Oh, you're white, you must be voting for the Republicans.
00:57:16.180 Is that the society we want to aim for?
00:57:17.640 Do we want a society in which there's a big block of deeply resentful white people,
00:57:25.820 deeply resentful white people, deeply resentful people, which isn't the case?
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