Making Sense - Sam Harris - #204 — A Conversation with Jonathan Haidt

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.

00:00:08.460 This is Sam Harris.

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00:00:47.040 I am here with Jonathan Haidt.

00:00:49.100 John, thanks for joining me again.

00:00:51.120 My pleasure, Sam.

00:00:52.620 So, we're planning to do a two-part conversation here,

00:00:56.140 starting with the topic that has been omnipresent

00:01:01.160 and on everybody's mind for now some months,

00:01:04.940 which is the COVID-19 pandemic.

00:01:07.900 And, you know, I wanted to talk to you about that

00:01:10.140 just because of, you know, your expertise in social psychology

00:01:14.720 and the way in which it's informing,

00:01:17.820 or should be informing,

00:01:18.740 our view of political polarization,

00:01:22.760 the fraying of society's concerns about social cohesion,

00:01:27.760 and everything that is a kind of knock-on effect

00:01:31.920 of the, or a potential knock-on effect

00:01:34.120 of the immediate concern here,

00:01:36.300 which is epidemiological and economic.

00:01:39.640 And so we'll dive into that.

00:01:40.880 And then in the second half,

00:01:41.800 I thought we could talk about our mutual interest

00:01:44.300 in self-transcendence

00:01:47.000 and the nature of consciousness

00:01:48.500 and the kinds of methods people have used

00:01:52.000 and you and I have both used

00:01:53.640 to explore that terrain,

00:01:55.960 psychedelics and meditation being two.

00:01:58.940 So we'll just,

00:01:59.740 this will be kind of a two-chapter conversation,

00:02:02.040 and I'm looking forward to it.

00:02:03.840 So, but before we begin, John,

00:02:06.100 just perhaps summarize your background briefly

00:02:10.420 in terms of your kind of intellectual life

00:02:13.800 as it relates to psychology and politics, perhaps.

00:02:19.280 Yeah, so I think in a lot of ways,

00:02:20.840 I started out on a very similar path to you.

00:02:24.580 I was a philosophy major in college

00:02:27.220 and I wanted to understand the meaning of life.

00:02:29.080 And then I went to graduate school in psychology

00:02:31.500 and I shifted over to social psychology

00:02:34.320 and morality and emotion.

00:02:36.260 And I began studying how morality varies across cultures,

00:02:39.500 but as the American culture wore heated up,

00:02:41.600 I shifted over to looking at left-right

00:02:43.840 as being like different cultures.

00:02:45.640 So I started studying political polarization

00:02:47.160 back in 2004.

00:02:49.860 And boy, is that a stock whose value has risen.

00:02:52.780 I mean, it's just reached insane valuations right now.

00:02:55.900 So that's what I've been studying.

00:02:57.840 And during, so I actually got into it

00:03:00.420 in part to help the Democrats win.

00:03:02.300 I was so upset that the Democrats in 2000, 2004

00:03:05.520 just had no idea how to talk about morality.

00:03:08.600 But as I began to write The Righteous Mind,

00:03:10.860 I really started reading conservative ideas

00:03:14.220 and intellectuals and discovering

00:03:16.060 that there are actually a lot of ideas out there

00:03:17.700 that I didn't know.

00:03:18.620 And it's very valuable to hear other sides.

00:03:20.960 I kind of stepped out from being on a team.

00:03:23.200 And since then, I've really just been trying

00:03:24.880 to help everyone understand across the divide.

00:03:27.740 And I'm extremely alarmed about our democracy

00:03:29.920 and its health.

00:03:31.520 So that's what I've been working on

00:03:32.660 for the last 10 or 15 years, especially,

00:03:35.040 is how do we help people understand

00:03:36.840 all the different moral matrices that they live in

00:03:39.680 and thereby turn down some of the anger

00:03:42.100 and make it possible to have pragmatic solutions

00:03:45.100 of the sort that a democracy should be able to reach?

00:03:47.840 Yeah, and you were one of the earliest people

00:03:51.460 on some of these points.

00:03:52.860 You might have been the first person

00:03:54.120 to signal just how dysfunctional

00:03:57.400 the ivory tower's view of the political landscape has been.

00:04:02.260 I mean, so it's just natural within the academy

00:04:05.520 to have a level of political bias

00:04:07.960 that just would be starkly dysfunctional anywhere else,

00:04:12.800 which guarantees an echo chamber effect.

00:04:16.300 And you were, you know, very early on

00:04:19.080 talking about how a lack of diversity of ideas

00:04:22.440 was really socially and intellectually problematic.

00:04:26.100 And so you started the Heterodox Academy

00:04:28.640 to shine more light on that.

00:04:31.080 Do you want to say something about that?

00:04:32.600 Yeah, sure, because it's very well connected

00:04:33.860 to what we'll be talking about today.

00:04:36.140 So once I stepped out of the matrix

00:04:39.320 and stopped being a member of a team,

00:04:41.520 fighting the other team,

00:04:43.080 and, you know, just started being

00:04:44.940 just a social scientist trying to figure out

00:04:46.840 what the hell's going on,

00:04:48.380 I started noticing not just that we lean left.

00:04:51.420 That isn't a problem.

00:04:52.440 The field can function, even if it leans,

00:04:54.260 you know, two or three, if you've got two or three times

00:04:56.280 as many people on the left as the right,

00:04:58.800 that's not a problem,

00:04:59.680 and it wouldn't be a problem to reverse either.

00:05:02.300 We don't need balance.

00:05:03.340 What we need is a complete absence of orthodoxy.

00:05:07.960 So orthodoxy, you know, means that if you dissent,

00:05:10.920 you will be punished.

00:05:12.620 And, you know, that's fine if your goal is cohesion.

00:05:15.720 You know, if you're an army marching into battle,

00:05:17.780 maybe that's fine.

00:05:18.760 But if you're a scientist seeking the truth,

00:05:21.640 you know, anybody who's read John Stuart Mill knows

00:05:23.800 he who knows only his own side of the case

00:05:26.220 knows little of that.

00:05:27.980 So that's what alarmed me.

00:05:28.980 As soon as I started looking at the polarization

00:05:31.000 in the country, I saw it happening

00:05:32.780 in my own field of psychology

00:05:34.580 and saw it happening in most of the social sciences

00:05:38.020 and humanities.

00:05:39.460 And I could see orthodoxy.

00:05:41.100 I could see bad social science thinking.

00:05:43.200 And I started getting alarmed by it.

00:05:44.940 I gave a talk in 2011 on how this was a problem

00:05:47.840 for social psychology.

00:05:49.460 And to my field's credit, I didn't suffer.

00:05:51.620 Nobody, you know, I wasn't kicked out.

00:05:53.020 People didn't get angry at me.

00:05:54.340 People generally agreed it's a problem,

00:05:56.140 but it's been hard to really change things.

00:05:59.420 And that's what Heterodox Academy is trying to do.

00:06:02.120 Well, it was a problem way back then.

00:06:04.900 But in 2016, the reckoning really seemed to happen

00:06:09.760 because what we witnessed there was a country

00:06:12.760 divided along seams we had seen before,

00:06:16.580 this heartland revulsion against the coasts

00:06:20.940 and against the cosmopolitanism and elitism

00:06:24.340 or perceived elitism of big cities

00:06:27.840 and, you know, their liberal inhabitants.

00:06:31.040 And Trump managed to magnify that divide

00:06:35.400 to a degree that I still think we're trying

00:06:37.540 to grapple with what happened there

00:06:39.340 and trying not to repeat the same psychological experiment

00:06:42.980 over the next six months.

00:06:44.840 And then I should also say that now the pandemic

00:06:47.480 has somehow, you know, if it were possible

00:06:50.140 to amplify that dynamic, it has.

00:06:52.840 That's right.

00:06:53.440 So how are you viewing the current moment

00:06:55.420 and what this quasi-quarantine has done

00:06:59.720 to further expose this intellectual

00:07:02.860 and tribal schism in the country?

00:07:04.840 Yeah, so to understand where we are,

00:07:07.220 you have to go back at least to the,

00:07:09.680 well, let's go all the way back to the 1950s and 60s

00:07:12.680 when America was pretty unpolarized.

00:07:15.540 The post-war world was an unusually,

00:07:18.060 historically it was quite unusual,

00:07:19.960 the mid-20th century

00:07:20.780 and having very low levels of polarization.

00:07:23.340 There were liberal Republicans,

00:07:24.940 there were conservative Democrats.

00:07:27.000 And for a variety of reasons in the 70s

00:07:29.720 and especially in the 80s,

00:07:31.180 we began to see almost like, you know,

00:07:33.080 tectonic plates moving around,

00:07:35.080 we began to have one party

00:07:36.580 that had psychological progressives

00:07:39.320 and one party that had psychological conservatives.

00:07:42.320 So before then, things were all scrambled

00:07:44.520 and, you know, rural people were often Democrats

00:07:47.240 and the Democrats were the party of the working man.

00:07:49.760 There was a lot of mixing and matching

00:07:51.520 and there was the possibility

00:07:52.420 of bipartisan legislation.

00:07:53.900 A lot of legislation was bipartisan back then.

00:07:56.240 But for a variety of reasons,

00:07:57.400 we start getting sorting into types of people

00:08:00.860 who are sorting by values.

00:08:03.140 I think Ronald Reagan put together a coalition

00:08:04.780 that was not just economic pro-business,

00:08:07.060 it was also with the Christians

00:08:08.840 and religious right and family values.

00:08:11.900 And this is much more dangerous

00:08:12.940 because if you have coalitions based on interests,

00:08:15.880 well, you can make deals, you can trade off.

00:08:18.780 But when you have coalitions

00:08:19.860 based on personality types that share values,

00:08:23.360 well, now the other side is evil.

00:08:25.480 They are bad people.

00:08:26.780 And as the parties increasingly then became more purified

00:08:30.780 in terms of density, that is, if it's, you know,

00:08:33.500 if there's a lot of people per square mile,

00:08:35.640 it votes Democrat.

00:08:36.920 And if there's a few people per square mile,

00:08:38.260 it votes Republican.

00:08:39.200 And also very alarmingly by race

00:08:41.420 as the Republican Party is becoming more

00:08:44.020 of the party of white people.

00:08:46.020 These splits are very dangerous.

00:08:48.240 So I'm extremely alarmed.

00:08:50.620 I was extremely alarmed even back around 2010, 2012.

00:08:54.120 And it is so much worse now.

00:08:56.540 And then there's the media environment.

00:08:57.800 We can get into that later perhaps,

00:08:59.100 but changes in social media between 2009 and 2011

00:09:02.320 gave us much more of an outrage machine,

00:09:05.380 adding on to cable TV,

00:09:06.980 which has been causing problems for a while as well.

00:09:09.880 So it was really, the table was really set

00:09:11.940 for an election in which reality had little grip

00:09:16.200 on a lot of people and passions, anger, fury,

00:09:20.300 gripped a lot of people.

00:09:21.440 I mean, it's basically straight out

00:09:22.740 of the Federalist Papers where Madison writes

00:09:25.920 about faction and the human tendency to faction.

00:09:29.240 If we hate the other side so much,

00:09:30.900 we don't care about the common good.

00:09:33.340 And there was a lot of anger in the 2016 election.

00:09:36.020 Had there not been so much anger,

00:09:37.300 had we not been so polarized,

00:09:38.420 there's no way Donald Trump could have gotten elected.

00:09:40.600 So I think everyone needs to think,

00:09:42.380 whatever side you're on,

00:09:43.140 if you care about the country,

00:09:44.680 we need to figure out what do we do about this?

00:09:46.860 How can we turn things down in the future?

00:09:49.100 Yeah, and the information piece is crucial here.

00:09:53.120 The fact that people can so successfully silo themselves

00:09:56.860 and pre-stigmatize other sources of information

00:10:00.740 or messages that they don't want to hear.

00:10:03.580 I mean, there's a level of confirmation bias

00:10:05.280 and just allergy to data that doesn't fit your narrative

00:10:10.280 and conspiracy thinking that doesn't even recognize

00:10:14.340 that it's conspiracy thinking

00:10:15.680 in terms of just the public conversation

00:10:18.000 we're having with one another and failing to have.

00:10:21.400 There's something unrecognizable about this.

00:10:23.280 I don't know if that's just some kind of delusion

00:10:26.000 that I've acquired based on it being delivered

00:10:29.660 through new channels like social media

00:10:31.740 or if it's some recency effect

00:10:33.640 or if I'm just getting older.

00:10:34.880 But to some degree, it's even ramped up

00:10:36.640 in the context of this pandemic

00:10:39.140 where I see otherwise very smart, irrational people,

00:10:45.140 i.e. not the usual tinfoil hat crowd,

00:10:49.040 succumbing to degrees of motivated reasoning

00:10:52.400 that without apology and without apparent bandwidth

00:10:56.140 to check themselves ever

00:10:58.260 and proving completely unsusceptible to argument.

00:11:02.760 It's just like there are no universally trusted sources

00:11:08.340 of information that can resolve disagreements

00:11:11.360 at this point, it seems.

00:11:12.880 Well, that's right, because you have to see people

00:11:15.960 not as creatures seeking information,

00:11:18.360 but as social creatures enmeshed in games of competition

00:11:22.500 or war or conflict.

00:11:24.000 And when the conflict level is low

00:11:27.160 and you put us in the right circumstances

00:11:30.240 and institutions, we actually can find the truth.

00:11:33.480 And that's the magic of a university.

00:11:35.020 That's the magic of science.

00:11:36.720 But imagine a scientific field

00:11:38.500 in which suddenly let's take

00:11:40.680 all the normal dynamics of science

00:11:42.180 and then let's put a lot of money in

00:11:44.000 so that there's a huge amount of money riding

00:11:46.660 on whether you get this discovery or patent.

00:11:51.040 Well, that would corrupt things.

00:11:52.220 And of course, that has happened to some degree

00:11:54.180 in medicine, in some areas.

00:11:57.000 In the social sciences, money doesn't play much of a role,

00:11:59.120 but politics does.

00:12:00.480 And so you get, as tribal passions

00:12:03.180 and hatred of the other political party rises,

00:12:07.180 you get the same kind of corrupting dynamic there.

00:12:10.380 So I do think it is a theme of the 2010s

00:12:12.960 and I suppose of the 2020s,

00:12:15.120 that it is actually getting harder to find the truth

00:12:17.860 than it was 20 or 30 years ago, I believe.

00:12:20.440 That is, despite the,

00:12:22.560 obviously some kinds of facts and truth

00:12:24.800 are just fantastically easy.

00:12:26.300 I mean, I'm very grateful for Google and the internet.

00:12:29.140 Obviously, many things are getting better.

00:12:30.960 But anything that is politically or morally tagged

00:12:34.940 so that one side wants to believe

00:12:36.640 and the other doesn't,

00:12:38.040 in some ways it is now harder to find the truth

00:12:40.280 than it used to be.

00:12:42.300 At least that's what I'm coming to see.

00:12:44.660 In my own field in psychology,

00:12:45.980 we've had this replication crisis.

00:12:47.540 And so this is a different mechanism,

00:12:49.740 but we used to think that,

00:12:51.420 when I was in grad school,

00:12:52.500 we learned that correlational studies

00:12:53.620 are not very reliable,

00:12:55.260 but experiments, wow, that's the gold standard.

00:12:57.600 If it's a random assignment, double blind,

00:13:00.820 boy, that tells you what caused what.

00:13:04.420 But now we're finding that even a lot

00:13:05.740 of our experiments don't replicate.

00:13:08.220 And so I think the attitude we have to take

00:13:10.120 into the 2020s is a lot more humility.

00:13:13.200 We simply don't know what the truth is,

00:13:15.440 no matter how fervently we believe we do.

00:13:17.860 And I imagine you're quite familiar

00:13:19.640 with that kind of a mindset and issues of faith,

00:13:22.540 but it infects all of us.

00:13:24.820 And I'm hopeful that this virus,

00:13:26.880 this pandemic has humbled everyone

00:13:28.540 because we were pretty much all wrong

00:13:29.940 about a lot of things.

00:13:31.420 We're still wrong about most things,

00:13:32.640 or many things probably.

00:13:34.920 Yeah, this has been an interesting

00:13:36.020 ordeal of epistemology, really, this pandemic.

00:13:39.520 So we've been dealing with patently unreliable information,

00:13:44.160 rumors leaking out of China,

00:13:46.680 and then the overt attempt to suppress those rumors

00:13:51.140 or a message against them

00:13:53.280 by a communist regime

00:13:55.860 that has every reason to worry about

00:13:58.560 the perception of it in the world.

00:14:00.220 And then all of the tribal spin

00:14:05.100 given to that circumstance by our own politics,

00:14:08.120 we have a completely deranged president

00:14:10.640 who is concerned about the stock market

00:14:13.880 and its effect on his chances of re-election.

00:14:17.440 We have a personality cult

00:14:19.560 amplifying every one of his errant ideas.

00:14:23.760 But then we have just all these different vested interests

00:14:28.420 and people without much political partisanship

00:14:34.640 exposed to very different

00:14:37.320 or likely very different outcomes

00:14:39.720 with respect to the single variable

00:14:41.840 of deciding to lock down society, right?

00:14:43.740 So you have people whose businesses

00:14:44.760 can still be maintained once we lock things down,

00:14:47.900 and then some of them even improve, right?

00:14:51.000 And then you have people for whom

00:14:52.740 every aspect of economic life

00:14:55.360 is going to grind to a halt.

00:14:57.020 And these people may,

00:14:58.420 on either side of this divide,

00:14:59.640 they may be equally reasonable

00:15:01.540 and equally respectful of science,

00:15:03.680 and yet you can see the consequences

00:15:05.200 of your economic concerns

00:15:07.380 trimming down your ability to think clearly

00:15:09.740 about what the data is suggesting

00:15:11.840 at any time point.

00:15:13.940 It's been very interesting to witness.

00:15:16.120 I mean, I continue to believe

00:15:17.300 that at every point along the way,

00:15:20.780 even when we,

00:15:21.780 the truth is we still don't know

00:15:23.580 how lethal this disease is.

00:15:25.760 That's right.

00:15:26.300 But we, at every point along the way,

00:15:28.240 it has been prudent

00:15:29.080 to try to stop the spread of the contagion,

00:15:33.840 to spare our healthcare system,

00:15:36.040 because we could see what was happening

00:15:37.400 in Italy and other countries,

00:15:39.680 and to use the time we were thereby gaining

00:15:45.480 for ourselves to ramp up testing

00:15:48.280 and our ability to trace and isolate cases

00:15:51.460 and to understand the virus

00:15:53.240 and obviously develop therapeutics

00:15:55.000 and ultimately a vaccine.

00:15:56.960 Now, we have proven surprisingly inept

00:16:00.560 at using the time well,

00:16:02.220 and that's something we have to figure out

00:16:04.380 how to improve and understand,

00:16:06.820 you know, going forward.

00:16:07.560 But it has always seemed prudent,

00:16:10.020 even given the absolutely predictable

00:16:12.940 economic costs,

00:16:14.780 to err on the side of caution here

00:16:17.680 because at every point along the way,

00:16:20.300 this has seemed considerably worse

00:16:22.420 than the flu.

00:16:23.160 I mean, the analogies to the flu

00:16:24.540 have always seemed inaccurate.

00:16:26.860 And the question is,

00:16:27.760 how much worse is this than the flu?

00:16:30.040 And reasonable people can debate that.

00:16:32.200 So, for instance,

00:16:32.900 there are very prominent people

00:16:33.980 who are making claims like hospitals

00:16:36.660 are coding more or less

00:16:39.480 every conceivable death

00:16:41.560 as a COVID death.

00:16:43.280 So the mortality statistics

00:16:44.560 are completely fake, right?

00:16:46.460 Now, whether this is,

00:16:47.760 I'm sure that that's happened

00:16:49.800 in a few places,

00:16:51.520 but this is either a

00:16:53.240 very dangerous conspiracy theory

00:16:55.360 or something we have to get

00:16:56.440 to the bottom of immediately.

00:16:58.560 And it's very hard to tell, right?

00:17:00.980 I mean, you can't figure this out

00:17:02.300 in two hours.

00:17:03.620 And who would you trust

00:17:04.560 to put this claim to rest or not?

00:17:07.880 The New York Times

00:17:08.840 isn't good enough, apparently.

00:17:11.040 So I don't know how you think

00:17:12.460 about how we move forward

00:17:14.160 in this space where

00:17:15.100 there are very few trusted

00:17:17.100 gatekeepers of information.

00:17:19.260 And the disparity between

00:17:21.240 believing one thing

00:17:22.680 and believing its antithesis

00:17:24.240 is enormous.

00:17:26.080 That's right.

00:17:26.920 So I think,

00:17:27.820 so I'll go with you

00:17:28.660 on your analysis

00:17:29.260 on the first few weeks

00:17:31.040 or a month or two of this,

00:17:32.740 which is that as long as

00:17:34.580 we didn't know much

00:17:35.780 about this thing,

00:17:36.720 we didn't know

00:17:37.280 what the death rate was,

00:17:38.400 it could be 3%, 6%.

00:17:40.440 And for God's sakes,

00:17:41.940 our doctors didn't even have masks.

00:17:44.460 So I think there was no,

00:17:45.900 there was really no dispute

00:17:46.780 that we had to do lockdowns

00:17:48.340 at first when we just didn't know

00:17:49.740 what was going on

00:17:50.360 and we could not deal with it.

00:17:51.460 We had no idea

00:17:52.180 where the high water mark would be.

00:17:53.980 You know, and I'm sitting here

00:17:55.060 in Manhattan

00:17:55.760 where everything is peaceful

00:17:57.740 and the streets are quiet,

00:17:59.080 but, you know,

00:17:59.500 it was pandemonium

00:18:00.340 in the hospitals

00:18:01.000 and we had no idea

00:18:02.020 how high the wave of death

00:18:04.000 was going to crest.

00:18:05.240 And I think to their credit,

00:18:06.120 Americans actually really did

00:18:08.100 accept that.

00:18:09.080 I mean, Americans really did,

00:18:10.380 you know, I was surprised

00:18:11.140 that I think in those first weeks

00:18:12.520 we actually did get,

00:18:13.960 you know, obviously not like

00:18:15.180 they did in China

00:18:15.900 or other places

00:18:16.440 using a lot more force,

00:18:17.780 but Americans did go along with it.

00:18:19.140 And the surveys still show

00:18:20.400 that most people support that.

00:18:21.680 But once we got through

00:18:23.560 that first wave

00:18:24.580 with enormous economic cost,

00:18:27.280 which is also a personal cost,

00:18:29.300 now I think there are

00:18:31.080 at least real alternative views

00:18:33.240 that need to be discussed.

00:18:34.220 And if we had some sort

00:18:35.800 of a reasonable,

00:18:37.080 rational media system,

00:18:39.560 reasonable democracy

00:18:41.240 with reasonable discourse norms,

00:18:43.160 we could actually do it.

00:18:44.540 What I mean is,

00:18:45.200 especially, say, the Sweden model,

00:18:46.460 it is at least reasonable

00:18:47.720 to say, okay, you know,

00:18:48.700 they're doing it differently

00:18:49.440 in different countries.

00:18:50.140 Well, let's look, how does it work?

00:18:52.040 You know, do they get immunity faster?

00:18:54.820 So as long as there was

00:18:55.420 so much unknown,

00:18:56.780 it actually would be really important

00:18:58.880 to listen to the other side,

00:19:00.360 to listen to critics.

00:19:01.880 And that's the way that

00:19:02.840 that's the way that

00:19:03.620 we all get smarter

00:19:04.520 is by having

00:19:05.560 our confirmation biases challenged.

00:19:07.840 So I'm a big fan of that.

00:19:09.960 Now, unfortunately,

00:19:10.700 we live in this crazy fun house,

00:19:13.820 mad house,

00:19:14.880 in which, as you said,

00:19:16.060 there are national interests

00:19:17.440 trying to distort things.

00:19:18.580 There are, you know,

00:19:19.660 Russian operatives

00:19:21.800 trying to, you know,

00:19:22.840 use rumors to divide us.

00:19:25.040 We have a president who,

00:19:27.040 when George W. Bush,

00:19:28.900 you know,

00:19:29.500 gave a call for us

00:19:31.460 to come together,

00:19:32.280 it was, you know,

00:19:32.660 a beautiful call

00:19:33.680 from a former president

00:19:34.640 and for Trump

00:19:35.700 to attack him on the spot.

00:19:37.800 That, to me,

00:19:38.220 was one of the several

00:19:39.280 just horrible low points

00:19:40.740 of this whole thing.

00:19:42.600 It also just shows us

00:19:43.320 how far from normal politics

00:19:45.020 we've wandered,

00:19:46.420 because, you know,

00:19:47.000 here we have

00:19:47.820 a current Republican president

00:19:49.300 vilifying a previous

00:19:51.240 Republican president

00:19:52.240 who was making nothing more

00:19:54.320 than a call

00:19:54.960 for national unity

00:19:56.000 and a transcendence

00:19:57.080 of partisanship.

00:19:58.380 And the current president

00:19:59.480 can't even transcend

00:20:00.580 his own thin-skinned concern.

00:20:02.900 No, that's right.

00:20:03.420 I know.

00:20:03.640 When that happened,

00:20:04.360 I didn't get angry at all.

00:20:05.600 I was laughing.

00:20:06.440 It's like,

00:20:06.700 oh my,

00:20:06.940 this cannot be happening.

00:20:08.380 This cannot be happening.

00:20:09.800 So, no,

00:20:10.160 we are so far beyond,

00:20:11.840 we're just so deep

00:20:12.600 into the absurd.

00:20:13.920 And so, yeah,

00:20:14.280 that's what we have to figure out.

00:20:15.060 Let me just put one distinction

00:20:16.260 on the table

00:20:16.900 is most Americans

00:20:18.920 are pretty reasonable.

00:20:20.440 Most Americans

00:20:21.000 are not that polarized.

00:20:22.840 You have to distinguish

00:20:23.980 between the average

00:20:25.080 and the,

00:20:26.800 sort of the dynamics

00:20:29.120 of the system.

00:20:30.520 And so,

00:20:30.960 let's take,

00:20:31.320 just to take one example

00:20:32.120 on a college campus,

00:20:33.940 most students

00:20:34.340 are pretty reasonable,

00:20:35.640 but we've been,

00:20:36.980 because of social media

00:20:37.680 and other things,

00:20:38.740 you know,

00:20:38.980 the people who will use

00:20:41.060 social media

00:20:41.720 or mount protests

00:20:43.520 can have

00:20:44.500 a disproportionate voice.

00:20:46.660 Same thing

00:20:47.160 in a democracy.

00:20:48.800 There's wonderful work

00:20:49.560 by a group

00:20:49.920 called More in Common,

00:20:51.300 a British organization

00:20:52.660 that surveyed America.

00:20:53.720 They've done

00:20:53.940 really wonderful work

00:20:54.820 on studying polarization

00:20:56.200 in the United States.

00:20:57.500 They find that

00:20:58.440 Americans fall into

00:20:59.980 about seven different groups

00:21:01.240 based on their

00:21:02.020 political attitudes.

00:21:03.820 And four of the groups,

00:21:05.940 which is a large majority,

00:21:07.540 they call the exhausted majority.

00:21:09.620 And these are people

00:21:10.840 who are quite reasonable.

00:21:11.920 Two of the groups

00:21:12.380 are on the left.

00:21:12.940 One is centrists.

00:21:14.020 One is people

00:21:14.660 who are just disengaged.

00:21:16.280 So most Americans,

00:21:18.060 you know,

00:21:18.360 you can't blame

00:21:20.200 most Americans.

00:21:21.940 But because of the nature

00:21:24.000 of social media,

00:21:25.180 the nature of Congress,

00:21:26.340 the nature of cable news,

00:21:29.240 various people

00:21:30.000 have megaphones

00:21:31.140 that are pursuing

00:21:32.260 either commercial interests

00:21:33.680 or ideological interests.

00:21:35.960 And so you get absurdities,

00:21:37.920 well, like Fox News

00:21:38.920 saying,

00:21:39.620 you know,

00:21:40.240 that remdesivir is bad

00:21:42.320 and chloroquine is good.

00:21:43.480 And this is after

00:21:44.020 the scientific studies

00:21:44.940 have come out

00:21:45.420 showing the reverse.

00:21:47.000 So what I'm saying is

00:21:48.100 don't give up on Americans,

00:21:49.820 but it's almost time

00:21:51.160 to give up on

00:21:51.880 the system

00:21:53.080 or the network

00:21:53.780 that we have.

00:21:54.880 And by give up,

00:21:55.400 I don't mean

00:21:55.780 that there's no hope.

00:21:56.320 I just mean like,

00:21:57.620 man,

00:21:58.200 we can't just go back

00:21:59.420 to normal.

00:21:59.840 We've got to dig deep,

00:22:01.040 figure out what's wrong

00:22:01.920 and fix this

00:22:03.420 so that this becomes

00:22:04.300 the bottoming out,

00:22:05.260 that 2020 becomes,

00:22:06.520 you know,

00:22:07.020 the worst year

00:22:07.740 in a long time

00:22:08.560 and it's something

00:22:09.940 changes by the end

00:22:10.880 of this decade.

00:22:12.320 How do you view

00:22:12.880 the next,

00:22:14.220 let's say six months?

00:22:15.040 So the next six months

00:22:15.900 is overshadowed

00:22:18.060 entirely by the 2020

00:22:19.620 presidential election,

00:22:20.960 right?

00:22:21.100 It's just going to be

00:22:22.260 politics all the time.

00:22:24.520 When it's not pandemic,

00:22:25.940 it'll be politics.

00:22:27.020 Yep.

00:22:27.400 And we,

00:22:28.740 you know,

00:22:29.000 obviously don't know

00:22:29.660 how much the economy

00:22:31.120 is going to unravel

00:22:32.080 in the meantime,

00:22:33.060 but it seems like

00:22:34.680 it's poised to unravel

00:22:37.320 to an impressive degree.

00:22:39.380 I mean,

00:22:39.540 we're certainly flirting

00:22:41.040 with a real depression

00:22:43.100 if, you know,

00:22:44.400 joblessness numbers

00:22:45.260 are any indication.

00:22:46.920 And again,

00:22:48.360 the most hopeful

00:22:50.540 predictions for a vaccine,

00:22:53.080 which is really

00:22:53.660 the only thing

00:22:54.660 that will fully reset

00:22:56.400 our circumstances

00:22:57.480 with respect to public health,

00:22:59.300 nothing arrives

00:23:00.260 before,

00:23:00.940 you know,

00:23:01.180 something like,

00:23:02.820 it would be a miracle

00:23:03.520 if it arrived in January.

00:23:04.680 Right?

00:23:05.200 And even that is,

00:23:07.200 very few people

00:23:08.000 are imagining

00:23:08.860 that it's sooner

00:23:10.200 than a year from now.

00:23:12.060 And again,

00:23:12.600 it's,

00:23:13.520 we've got to remind ourselves

00:23:14.360 of how amazing

00:23:15.700 that would be.

00:23:16.380 I think the fastest vaccine

00:23:17.920 we've ever developed

00:23:19.060 was four years

00:23:20.420 for the mumps

00:23:21.020 and the average

00:23:22.020 is 15 years.

00:23:23.180 One year would be,

00:23:24.140 you know,

00:23:24.400 a massive breakthrough.

00:23:26.160 And let's say

00:23:27.320 we improve on that

00:23:28.620 and it's,

00:23:29.580 we get a vaccine

00:23:30.460 by January.

00:23:31.500 Still,

00:23:31.960 we have this period

00:23:33.000 where not just

00:23:34.420 our country,

00:23:35.640 but the entire world

00:23:36.980 has been pitched

00:23:37.840 into a circumstance

00:23:38.660 of real uncertainty

00:23:40.820 financially,

00:23:42.780 economically,

00:23:43.520 and,

00:23:44.080 and I think

00:23:45.180 as a result,

00:23:46.400 politically.

00:23:47.420 How are you viewing

00:23:48.360 the next six months?

00:23:50.040 And,

00:23:50.800 I mean,

00:23:50.940 there's just so many

00:23:51.520 concerns on the table.

00:23:52.420 Like,

00:23:52.580 how do we even have

00:23:53.320 a safe election,

00:23:54.500 right?

00:23:54.800 If we can't vote by mail,

00:23:56.380 right?

00:23:56.580 How do we get people

00:23:57.320 to actually vote?

00:23:59.020 What are you thinking about

00:23:59.800 for the next six months?

00:24:01.560 So,

00:24:01.780 you know,

00:24:02.020 I completely agree

00:24:02.780 that it's going to be

00:24:03.500 all pandemic

00:24:04.900 and Trump

00:24:05.920 all the time

00:24:07.140 with just sideshows

00:24:08.500 over Biden

00:24:09.240 and other things

00:24:10.520 here and there.

00:24:11.360 So,

00:24:11.780 there's no chance

00:24:12.440 of the fever breaking

00:24:13.300 until after the election.

00:24:15.880 I'm certainly hoping

00:24:16.880 that Trump

00:24:17.340 is not re-elected.

00:24:19.440 I think that,

00:24:20.280 you know,

00:24:20.700 as many people said,

00:24:21.740 oh,

00:24:21.840 well,

00:24:22.020 you know,

00:24:22.180 there are adults

00:24:22.640 in the room.

00:24:23.320 In the first year or two,

00:24:24.100 there were many good people

00:24:25.220 in government

00:24:26.020 and I think

00:24:27.300 there are not so many

00:24:28.680 of them

00:24:29.680 at the upper level

00:24:30.260 anymore.

00:24:31.080 So,

00:24:31.720 the point is that

00:24:32.380 the craziness

00:24:33.560 we've seen

00:24:34.160 in the last year or two

00:24:35.260 would get even worse.

00:24:37.980 So,

00:24:38.160 I think that if

00:24:38.900 Trump is re-elected,

00:24:40.040 I think the damage

00:24:41.540 to our democracy

00:24:42.480 and our reputation

00:24:43.940 in the world,

00:24:44.480 our standing in the world,

00:24:45.760 I don't,

00:24:46.500 I'm terrified

00:24:47.380 to think what would happen.

00:24:49.480 If Biden wins

00:24:51.600 or,

00:24:52.020 you know,

00:24:52.540 there could be some route

00:24:53.360 in which he's not the nominee

00:24:54.380 or,

00:24:54.740 you know,

00:24:54.860 who knows what's going to happen.

00:24:56.380 But if Biden wins,

00:24:58.280 it would be great

00:24:59.360 if we had a bold

00:25:01.500 and inspiring leader

00:25:02.900 and,

00:25:03.500 you know,

00:25:04.120 I'm not expecting

00:25:04.940 that Biden will rise

00:25:05.740 to that level,

00:25:06.460 but,

00:25:06.900 you know,

00:25:07.040 who knows.

00:25:08.520 There is a,

00:25:09.100 of course,

00:25:09.480 there's a chance

00:25:10.000 for a reset

00:25:11.400 of a lot of things.

00:25:12.480 It's very hard to predict

00:25:13.420 how things would play out.

00:25:15.600 The one,

00:25:16.340 the one thing

00:25:16.780 I would question

00:25:17.280 what you said

00:25:17.860 is you say

00:25:18.480 nobody is predicting

00:25:19.280 a vaccine

00:25:19.800 for a very long time.

00:25:20.880 Yes,

00:25:21.020 that's true.

00:25:21.920 But,

00:25:22.440 you know,

00:25:22.600 this is one of those things

00:25:23.500 like we've been told

00:25:24.140 a lot of things

00:25:24.840 about what,

00:25:26.160 about the virus,

00:25:27.160 like don't wear masks

00:25:28.180 and,

00:25:28.520 you know,

00:25:28.700 wash your hands

00:25:29.340 for 20 seconds.

00:25:30.560 And it turns out

00:25:31.300 a lot of that

00:25:32.020 was either wrong

00:25:32.760 or at least not based

00:25:33.520 on evidence.

00:25:35.160 It is true

00:25:35.580 that experts tell us

00:25:36.900 it's likely to be

00:25:37.460 a long time

00:25:38.060 and you're right

00:25:38.640 that no vaccine

00:25:39.280 has ever been invented

00:25:40.000 that quickly.

00:25:40.680 But,

00:25:41.000 you know,

00:25:41.200 there's a hundred,

00:25:42.320 I just saw on the news

00:25:43.020 the other day,

00:25:43.460 there's a hundred

00:25:44.200 vaccines that are in development

00:25:45.860 and three or four of them

00:25:46.680 are going into clinical trials now.

00:25:48.540 And,

00:25:48.720 of course,

00:25:49.200 we're not,

00:25:49.560 there's no way

00:25:50.040 we're going to follow

00:25:50.640 the old protocol

00:25:51.300 where we,

00:25:51.880 you know,

00:25:52.460 inoculate a lot of people

00:25:53.580 and wait a year

00:25:54.220 to see if how many got sick.

00:25:55.400 No,

00:25:55.520 we're going to do

00:25:55.840 challenge trials.

00:25:56.640 People are going to

00:25:57.040 volunteer like crazy

00:25:58.120 to be infected

00:25:59.280 with the virus

00:25:59.780 to see if they have

00:26:00.420 the immunity.

00:26:00.820 So,

00:26:01.260 I just raise this

00:26:02.060 as just one example

00:26:03.740 of how a lot of things

00:26:05.360 that are put forth

00:26:06.060 as facts about this,

00:26:07.360 you have to at least

00:26:08.080 actively look

00:26:08.960 and say,

00:26:09.900 okay,

00:26:10.140 is this really a fact?

00:26:11.160 Do we really know this?

00:26:12.600 And,

00:26:12.820 you know,

00:26:12.980 under what scenarios

00:26:13.680 might this not come true?

00:26:15.240 And,

00:26:15.420 of course,

00:26:15.700 if,

00:26:16.080 suppose one of these,

00:26:16.840 you know,

00:26:16.920 there's one just starting

00:26:17.480 at NYU,

00:26:18.100 just,

00:26:18.280 I saw it on the news

00:26:18.820 on Friday.

00:26:19.380 They're injecting,

00:26:21.620 well,

00:26:21.820 they're giving the vaccine

00:26:22.480 to people this week

00:26:23.600 and then they'll start

00:26:24.780 exposing them

00:26:25.480 or some of them,

00:26:26.040 I think.

00:26:26.460 I'm not sure

00:26:26.820 what the plan is exactly,

00:26:28.060 but they'll have an answer

00:26:29.020 within a couple months.

00:26:30.400 And so,

00:26:30.820 let's just suppose

00:26:31.560 it works.

00:26:32.760 Well,

00:26:33.020 that would really

00:26:33.800 change everything

00:26:34.660 and in a way

00:26:35.780 that I think,

00:26:36.300 obviously,

00:26:37.000 could greatly benefit

00:26:38.140 Trump.

00:26:39.260 What I'm hoping,

00:26:40.400 you know,

00:26:40.760 presidents,

00:26:41.440 leaders often get a bump

00:26:42.400 because of a crisis.

00:26:43.780 Trump got hardly any,

00:26:45.200 but,

00:26:45.840 you know,

00:26:46.180 it's the incompetence,

00:26:47.160 which is what I'm hoping

00:26:48.160 will turn off

00:26:49.460 the middle of the country.

00:26:50.780 It's the bumbling

00:26:51.620 incompetence

00:26:52.440 that I think

00:26:53.580 is likely to be powerful

00:26:54.880 for a lot of people

00:26:56.280 who are not part

00:26:56.920 of his base.

00:26:58.580 But if somehow,

00:26:59.840 you know,

00:27:00.140 if there's a scientific

00:27:01.260 breakthrough

00:27:01.760 and the vaccine

00:27:02.840 comes quickly,

00:27:03.920 a lot of people

00:27:04.500 will say,

00:27:04.860 see,

00:27:05.160 it's just like Trump said,

00:27:06.220 it'll just magically

00:27:06.880 go away.

00:27:07.940 So,

00:27:08.240 you know,

00:27:08.400 I just think we can't,

00:27:09.160 it's very hard to game out

00:27:10.180 how things are going to play out

00:27:11.400 both scientifically

00:27:12.280 and economically.

00:27:15.000 Yeah,

00:27:15.180 yeah,

00:27:15.380 I would place a bet

00:27:16.920 on what seems to be

00:27:17.980 the pervasive incompetence

00:27:19.540 at the moment.

00:27:20.160 I mean,

00:27:20.240 just because even if we had

00:27:21.520 a vaccine today

00:27:22.840 that we knew worked,

00:27:24.840 we have to roll that out

00:27:26.540 to,

00:27:26.920 you know,

00:27:27.220 in our case,

00:27:27.900 350 million people

00:27:29.200 and our struggle

00:27:31.140 to even get

00:27:32.120 testing going

00:27:33.720 is instructive.

00:27:35.920 You know,

00:27:36.160 so you just imagine

00:27:36.860 having to produce

00:27:37.780 the vials of vaccine

00:27:40.240 and if this is an injectable,

00:27:41.880 right,

00:27:42.120 as opposed to something

00:27:43.160 that you can inhale.

00:27:45.020 It's daunting.

00:27:45.860 Yeah,

00:27:46.020 but you know,

00:27:46.280 look,

00:27:46.480 it could be invented

00:27:47.680 in China.

00:27:48.400 You know,

00:27:48.520 we're all assuming

00:27:49.120 that it's going to be

00:27:49.580 invented by Americans,

00:27:51.160 but you know,

00:27:51.560 there's a lot going on

00:27:52.320 in Europe,

00:27:52.820 in Israel,

00:27:53.400 in China.

00:27:54.920 So,

00:27:55.560 then all the more reason

00:27:56.260 to worry that we're not

00:27:57.160 first in line

00:27:58.020 to get it,

00:27:58.840 right?

00:27:59.000 That's right.

00:27:59.860 Well,

00:28:00.220 so I don't know how

00:28:01.820 in the weeds

00:28:03.040 you've gotten

00:28:03.620 with Trump supporters.

00:28:06.140 This is a,

00:28:06.680 I've commented on this

00:28:07.680 in several places

00:28:08.860 and the thing about

00:28:09.880 the Trump phenomenon

00:28:10.720 that has been

00:28:11.980 most mystifying to me

00:28:13.380 is that among

00:28:15.220 his supporters

00:28:16.280 and not even people

00:28:17.800 who are unsophisticated,

00:28:20.280 even people who,

00:28:21.340 I'm just,

00:28:21.900 I'm surprised to even

00:28:22.780 discover they are,

00:28:24.420 they did support him

00:28:25.480 at all.

00:28:26.380 What I find

00:28:27.660 that is truly mystifying

00:28:30.140 and really

00:28:30.840 just confounds

00:28:32.540 any effort

00:28:33.280 to have a reasonable

00:28:34.460 conversation about

00:28:35.680 politics

00:28:36.380 is a

00:28:37.800 total unwillingness

00:28:39.300 to admit

00:28:40.020 that there's anything

00:28:41.540 consequentially wrong

00:28:43.680 with him.

00:28:44.420 Yeah.

00:28:44.920 That his lack of

00:28:46.480 understanding

00:28:47.620 of complex issues,

00:28:49.260 that his

00:28:49.800 bluster,

00:28:51.100 his dishonesty,

00:28:52.620 that any of this

00:28:53.860 is in any way

00:28:55.460 negative,

00:28:57.300 right?

00:28:57.980 What I feel like

00:28:59.040 I meet

00:28:59.480 in trying to convince

00:29:01.140 Trump supporters

00:29:02.240 of anything

00:29:02.800 is just an

00:29:03.920 absolute stonewalling

00:29:05.860 on points

00:29:07.520 that just seem

00:29:08.600 objectively true

00:29:10.140 and my noticing

00:29:11.240 them

00:29:11.620 is not at all

00:29:12.860 a sign of my own

00:29:13.860 partisanship.

00:29:14.600 Just to say that

00:29:15.580 Trump lies

00:29:16.660 more than is

00:29:18.280 normal

00:29:18.760 in a politician.

00:29:19.600 That is as

00:29:21.500 objectively true

00:29:22.560 as the

00:29:23.040 Pythagorean theorem.

00:29:24.600 There's just no

00:29:25.320 possibility

00:29:26.200 of debating that

00:29:27.660 and yet

00:29:28.200 even that

00:29:29.440 will not be

00:29:30.120 conceded

00:29:30.800 or if conceded

00:29:32.500 there'll be some

00:29:33.600 assertion that it

00:29:34.480 just doesn't matter.

00:29:36.060 All politicians

00:29:36.740 lie

00:29:37.280 is the mantra

00:29:38.520 you will reliably

00:29:39.720 hear at that

00:29:40.740 juncture in the

00:29:41.440 conversation

00:29:41.880 and there's

00:29:43.460 something like

00:29:43.880 a hundred points

00:29:44.740 like that.

00:29:45.940 It's hard to

00:29:46.440 understand

00:29:47.080 what is

00:29:48.860 at the root

00:29:49.980 of it

00:29:50.260 because

00:29:50.700 this is not

00:29:51.620 an ordinary

00:29:52.180 form of

00:29:52.700 tribalism.

00:29:53.460 This is not

00:29:54.020 like members

00:29:55.540 of the Christian

00:29:56.700 right who are

00:29:57.760 Christian fundamentalists

00:29:58.800 and they have a

00:29:59.400 whole worldview

00:30:00.160 organized around

00:30:01.180 there having

00:30:02.240 grown up

00:30:02.820 evangelical

00:30:03.380 or whatever

00:30:03.860 and now

00:30:04.240 they're voting

00:30:04.820 for whoever

00:30:06.120 it is

00:30:06.480 George Bush

00:30:07.040 because he's

00:30:08.320 on their side

00:30:09.240 and he's going

00:30:09.660 to put in

00:30:10.020 the right

00:30:10.280 conservative judges

00:30:11.120 and block

00:30:11.580 abortion.

00:30:12.200 It's not part

00:30:13.280 of a whole

00:30:13.780 system of belief

00:30:14.720 like that.

00:30:15.260 It's just

00:30:15.820 in many cases

00:30:17.080 the only thing

00:30:18.160 that seems

00:30:18.840 to be

00:30:19.320 organizing it

00:30:20.360 ideologically

00:30:20.940 is a

00:30:22.320 revulsion

00:30:23.040 at the

00:30:25.000 status quo

00:30:25.820 that was

00:30:27.220 repudiated

00:30:28.000 in the

00:30:28.420 2016 election.

00:30:30.520 The business

00:30:31.040 as usual

00:30:31.600 that Hillary

00:30:32.220 Clinton

00:30:32.580 represented

00:30:33.220 we don't

00:30:34.140 want any

00:30:34.480 more of

00:30:34.740 that

00:30:35.060 and also

00:30:36.060 we probably

00:30:36.440 don't want

00:30:36.680 to pay

00:30:36.880 any more

00:30:37.180 in taxes

00:30:37.680 and you

00:30:38.380 get those

00:30:38.760 two variables

00:30:39.660 clattering

00:30:40.920 around a

00:30:41.620 person's

00:30:42.000 brain

00:30:42.320 and it

00:30:43.280 it has

00:30:44.240 summed

00:30:45.180 to something

00:30:45.820 like a

00:30:47.120 cultic

00:30:48.080 unwillingness

00:30:49.060 to admit

00:30:49.540 the obvious

00:30:50.240 just across

00:30:51.100 the board

00:30:51.620 whenever the

00:30:52.180 conversation

00:30:52.660 turns to

00:30:53.400 Trump.

00:30:54.160 Yeah so let

00:30:54.600 me let me

00:30:55.160 give you

00:30:55.500 the handy

00:30:56.640 a handy

00:30:57.240 little

00:30:57.500 psychological

00:30:58.000 tool that

00:30:58.840 that explains

00:30:59.880 that can

00:31:00.440 explain this

00:31:01.140 so there's

00:31:02.200 a there's

00:31:02.640 a wonderful

00:31:03.120 term there's

00:31:03.660 research by

00:31:04.200 Tom Gilovich

00:31:04.940 at Cornell

00:31:05.580 who studied

00:31:06.760 motivated reasoning

00:31:07.540 and I got

00:31:08.300 this little

00:31:08.600 formula from

00:31:09.160 him he says

00:31:09.880 when we

00:31:10.840 when we

00:31:11.260 want to

00:31:11.800 believe

00:31:12.100 something

00:31:12.580 we don't

00:31:13.460 look at

00:31:13.740 the evidence

00:31:14.180 and say

00:31:14.620 is the

00:31:14.940 evidence

00:31:15.260 mostly on

00:31:15.940 the side

00:31:16.720 that I

00:31:17.040 want to

00:31:17.300 believe

00:31:17.580 we just

00:31:18.360 say can

00:31:19.700 I believe

00:31:20.200 it do I

00:31:20.560 have permission

00:31:20.980 to believe

00:31:21.460 it meaning

00:31:21.820 can I find

00:31:22.760 one example

00:31:23.840 one argument

00:31:24.840 one piece

00:31:25.320 of evidence

00:31:25.800 and if I

00:31:26.620 can I'm

00:31:27.400 done I

00:31:27.840 stop thinking

00:31:28.300 because if

00:31:28.960 someone challenges

00:31:29.560 me I can

00:31:30.340 point to this

00:31:30.800 piece of

00:31:31.100 evidence

00:31:31.460 whereas if

00:31:32.660 you don't

00:31:32.840 want to

00:31:33.020 believe

00:31:33.160 something you

00:31:33.660 say must

00:31:34.420 I believe

00:31:35.000 it am I

00:31:35.340 forced to

00:31:36.020 believe it

00:31:36.500 so I've

00:31:37.020 had the same

00:31:37.340 experience as

00:31:38.060 you I

00:31:38.460 have several

00:31:39.180 you know I

00:31:39.880 with a lot

00:31:40.220 of people

00:31:40.560 on the

00:31:40.820 left and

00:31:41.140 the right

00:31:41.420 and I

00:31:41.600 have some

00:31:41.840 very smart

00:31:42.460 correspondents

00:31:43.520 who are

00:31:43.760 Trump supporters

00:31:44.460 and I've

00:31:45.300 had that

00:31:45.520 exact debate

00:31:46.340 with him

00:31:46.680 about whether

00:31:47.400 there's

00:31:47.820 something wrong

00:31:49.200 with him

00:31:49.660 and you

00:31:50.360 know the

00:31:50.700 psychologists

00:31:51.400 the psychiatrists

00:31:52.540 say the

00:31:52.940 most likely

00:31:53.480 most likely

00:31:54.960 diagnosis is

00:31:55.660 narcissistic

00:31:56.260 personality

00:31:56.840 disorder

00:31:57.360 he makes

00:31:58.500 everything about

00:31:59.220 him and

00:32:00.160 you and I

00:32:00.620 think that

00:32:00.980 that's as

00:32:01.340 objective a

00:32:01.960 fact as

00:32:02.460 the sun

00:32:02.820 rises in

00:32:03.320 the east

00:32:03.620 that he

00:32:03.880 does that

00:32:04.220 more than

00:32:04.700 other people

00:32:05.180 but once

00:32:06.400 you understand

00:32:06.820 that everybody's

00:32:07.680 asking not

00:32:08.640 is it true

00:32:09.480 but must I

00:32:10.200 believe it

00:32:10.780 well the

00:32:11.440 answer is

00:32:11.980 always no

00:32:12.900 there's almost

00:32:13.820 nothing that you

00:32:14.480 have to believe

00:32:15.260 certainly not

00:32:16.720 anything about

00:32:17.260 politics or

00:32:18.040 anything that

00:32:18.380 can't be

00:32:18.700 measured exactly

00:32:19.500 precisely and

00:32:20.380 you know with

00:32:20.920 no no you

00:32:22.100 know questioning

00:32:22.620 about what the

00:32:23.100 rules are so

00:32:24.260 you and I can

00:32:24.940 point to well

00:32:25.860 look at the

00:32:26.200 fact checkers

00:32:26.860 they find you

00:32:27.400 know 10,000

00:32:28.300 errors well you

00:32:29.860 know the Trump

00:32:30.920 supporters will

00:32:31.400 simply point out

00:32:32.140 that the fact

00:32:32.640 those fact

00:32:33.520 checkers work

00:32:34.140 for the you

00:32:34.780 know the

00:32:34.960 Washington

00:32:35.640 post or

00:32:36.460 or snopes or

00:32:37.500 other places

00:32:37.920 that have

00:32:38.200 known left

00:32:38.680 wing biases

00:32:39.760 and they're

00:32:40.140 right so it's

00:32:41.400 very hard to

00:32:42.060 get at the

00:32:42.600 truth and you

00:32:43.600 know I think

00:32:44.400 of course there

00:32:44.820 is a truth but

00:32:46.220 when Trump

00:32:47.040 supporters ask

00:32:47.720 must I

00:32:48.300 believe it the

00:32:49.260 answer is

00:32:49.560 always no and

00:32:51.360 one of the

00:32:52.000 best ways to

00:32:52.620 get a little

00:32:53.200 bit more

00:32:53.560 humility here

00:32:54.300 and calm down

00:32:55.420 the anger a

00:32:55.940 little bit is

00:32:57.140 to say just

00:32:58.260 always turn it

00:32:58.780 around and

00:32:59.360 say is there

00:33:00.080 some different

00:33:00.820 issue on

00:33:01.940 which my side

00:33:02.760 is just as

00:33:03.340 obtuse and

00:33:04.940 you know I

00:33:05.820 think people

00:33:06.280 on the right

00:33:07.120 would point out

00:33:07.820 that well you

00:33:08.380 know people

00:33:09.180 on the left

00:33:09.740 pretty much

00:33:10.160 anything about

00:33:10.860 race and

00:33:11.320 gender and

00:33:12.300 LGBT and

00:33:13.480 you know

00:33:13.740 immigration I

00:33:14.460 mean there's

00:33:14.660 all these

00:33:15.280 issues that

00:33:16.680 are sacred

00:33:17.240 issues on

00:33:18.000 the left at

00:33:18.620 least in my

00:33:19.040 part of the

00:33:19.660 left and

00:33:20.020 you know

00:33:20.320 universities

00:33:20.900 but as you

00:33:22.020 know I

00:33:22.400 spend a lot

00:33:22.980 of time

00:33:23.240 hammering the

00:33:23.840 left for

00:33:24.340 its

00:33:24.600 yeah

00:33:24.840 yeah

00:33:25.440 I admire

00:33:25.740 your guts

00:33:27.560 yes yes

00:33:28.420 so I get

00:33:29.340 it from both

00:33:29.720 sides yet

00:33:30.940 I mean when

00:33:31.580 you just look

00:33:32.260 at at

00:33:32.760 the way in

00:33:33.580 which we

00:33:33.980 have shed

00:33:35.000 influence in

00:33:36.000 the world

00:33:36.520 in the last

00:33:37.620 few years

00:33:38.160 where we

00:33:38.920 have just

00:33:39.240 by turns

00:33:40.060 terrified

00:33:41.360 our allies

00:33:43.040 and gratified

00:33:44.340 our actual

00:33:45.740 adversaries

00:33:46.660 it's just

00:33:47.400 yeah it's

00:33:48.320 mind-boggling

00:33:48.920 that you

00:33:49.580 have a

00:33:49.900 something like

00:33:51.040 40 percent

00:33:52.020 of American

00:33:52.480 society that

00:33:53.640 sees absolutely

00:33:54.980 no problem

00:33:55.720 with this

00:33:56.060 I mean worse

00:33:56.480 they see

00:33:56.920 some this

00:33:57.480 as some

00:33:57.860 form of

00:33:58.220 progress

00:33:58.760 yeah

00:33:59.280 okay so

00:34:00.160 let me

00:34:00.320 so here's

00:34:00.760 the metaphor

00:34:01.120 that's helped

00:34:01.620 me understand

00:34:02.260 the otherwise

00:34:04.020 just unfathomable

00:34:05.220 state of our

00:34:06.300 country now

00:34:07.340 so I began

00:34:08.540 to feel

00:34:09.200 around 2014

00:34:10.120 2015

00:34:10.660 that something

00:34:11.500 was deeply

00:34:12.200 wrong

00:34:12.660 like

00:34:13.520 something has

00:34:15.320 changed about

00:34:15.980 the universe

00:34:16.520 and I played

00:34:18.440 with this

00:34:18.720 I just had

00:34:19.160 this uncomfortable

00:34:19.860 feeling for

00:34:20.780 a couple of

00:34:21.460 years

00:34:21.700 and finally

00:34:22.240 a year or two

00:34:22.780 ago I started

00:34:23.280 working this

00:34:24.220 metaphor into

00:34:24.980 my talks

00:34:25.580 suppose that

00:34:26.860 God one day

00:34:28.580 just doubled

00:34:29.560 the gravitational

00:34:30.200 constant

00:34:30.700 so you know

00:34:31.740 in our

00:34:32.000 universe

00:34:32.280 there's like

00:34:32.620 25 physical

00:34:33.940 constants

00:34:34.600 you know

00:34:35.140 the mass of

00:34:35.660 an electron

00:34:36.040 things like

00:34:36.540 that

00:34:36.820 and if

00:34:37.720 God just

00:34:38.160 said one

00:34:38.580 day let's

00:34:38.840 just double

00:34:39.280 the gravitational

00:34:39.920 constant

00:34:40.340 just for

00:34:40.720 fun

00:34:41.040 like everything

00:34:42.080 would go

00:34:42.420 totally haywire

00:34:43.300 in the physical

00:34:44.180 world and you

00:34:44.720 know planets

00:34:45.180 would move

00:34:45.600 in their orbits

00:34:46.180 and planes

00:34:46.860 would come

00:34:47.220 out of the sky

00:34:47.900 and it would

00:34:48.420 just be you

00:34:48.960 know bizarre

00:34:49.560 and disastrous

00:34:50.260 and I think

00:34:52.780 that what

00:34:53.120 happened is

00:34:54.000 basically that

00:34:55.080 but in the

00:34:55.540 social world

00:34:56.280 and that is

00:34:57.380 you know

00:34:58.080 connectivity

00:34:58.500 is generally

00:34:59.580 good but

00:35:00.580 we're now

00:35:00.920 hyperconnected

00:35:02.080 that's changing

00:35:03.060 a basic

00:35:03.440 parameter of

00:35:04.200 the universe

00:35:04.680 we're so

00:35:05.200 connected

00:35:05.660 but it's more

00:35:06.680 than that

00:35:06.980 it's not just

00:35:07.540 you know

00:35:08.000 like oh

00:35:08.460 we're you know

00:35:08.820 because giving

00:35:09.980 us telephones

00:35:10.720 and email

00:35:11.220 I mean we've

00:35:11.640 been getting

00:35:11.920 more and more

00:35:12.280 connected for

00:35:12.940 centuries

00:35:13.500 and that's

00:35:14.200 generally been

00:35:14.500 a good thing

00:35:14.980 it's the nature

00:35:16.060 of the connectivity

00:35:16.820 it's connectivity

00:35:18.000 in which we

00:35:18.800 are communicating

00:35:19.580 not privately

00:35:20.980 but in front

00:35:22.140 of an audience

00:35:22.760 and the audience

00:35:23.760 rates the

00:35:24.560 communication

00:35:25.140 so this I

00:35:26.340 think is what

00:35:26.680 social media

00:35:27.180 has done to

00:35:27.960 us

00:35:28.300 that is when

00:35:29.400 Facebook and

00:35:30.180 MySpace came

00:35:31.500 out it was

00:35:32.720 just you know

00:35:33.660 look here's my

00:35:34.420 page here are

00:35:35.340 all my friends

00:35:36.080 here are the

00:35:36.440 bands I like

00:35:37.380 you know there's

00:35:38.040 some showing off

00:35:38.700 but it wasn't

00:35:39.260 toxic and it

00:35:39.880 was not bad

00:35:40.420 for democracy

00:35:41.180 I have an

00:35:42.580 article in the

00:35:42.980 Atlantic last

00:35:43.820 November with

00:35:44.300 Tobias Rose

00:35:44.860 Stockwell where

00:35:45.480 we show how

00:35:46.160 beginning in

00:35:47.020 2009 when

00:35:48.400 Facebook added

00:35:49.120 the like button

00:35:50.040 and then Twitter

00:35:51.060 copied it and

00:35:51.720 Twitter added the

00:35:52.460 retweet button

00:35:53.220 and Facebook

00:35:53.720 copied it and

00:35:55.000 then they both

00:35:55.520 algorithm sized

00:35:56.360 their news feeds

00:35:57.320 much more so

00:35:58.260 between 2009

00:35:59.120 and 2012 the

00:36:00.960 nature of human

00:36:01.740 connectivity changed

00:36:03.320 radically in ways

00:36:05.040 that I think are

00:36:05.580 very very bad for

00:36:06.660 democracy that is

00:36:08.100 it wasn't just that

00:36:09.120 we could now talk

00:36:09.760 to each other

00:36:10.180 privately for free

00:36:11.120 it's that a lot

00:36:12.620 more of our

00:36:13.080 conversation was

00:36:13.840 now in public

00:36:14.860 being raided which

00:36:15.840 means it was

00:36:16.300 inauthentic often

00:36:17.420 dishonest and with

00:36:19.000 a lot more

00:36:19.680 intimidation you

00:36:21.020 know I hate

00:36:21.580 Twitter I hate

00:36:22.200 going on Twitter

00:36:22.820 I'm also fascinated

00:36:23.660 by it and I you

00:36:24.520 know I

00:36:25.000 it's like opening

00:36:25.800 a garbage can

00:36:26.520 and watching rats

00:36:27.240 and cockroaches

00:36:27.880 fighting and

00:36:28.460 there's something

00:36:28.800 fascinating about

00:36:29.600 it but things

00:36:30.620 really changed

00:36:31.380 after 2012 and

00:36:32.820 the Russians

00:36:33.220 noticed it and

00:36:34.100 they've been trying

00:36:34.600 to mess with our

00:36:35.020 democracy for 50

00:36:36.140 years in 2014 is

00:36:38.180 when they realized

00:36:38.960 hey there's this

00:36:40.280 great outrage

00:36:41.360 machine that the

00:36:42.080 Americans have

00:36:42.640 built for us and

00:36:43.820 it's we don't have

00:36:44.420 to go over there

00:36:45.020 we don't have to

00:36:45.620 fly agents over to

00:36:46.540 mess them up we

00:36:47.160 can just sit here

00:36:47.660 in St.

00:36:47.980 Petersburg do it

00:36:48.840 so you know I

00:36:50.300 think that you

00:36:51.760 know I hear your

00:36:52.360 incomprehension I

00:36:53.420 hear your you

00:36:54.800 know your

00:36:55.160 frustration things

00:36:57.120 are terribly wrong

00:36:58.240 and we could

00:36:59.280 blame we could

00:37:00.520 blame those Trump

00:37:01.220 supporters we could

00:37:02.060 say they must be

00:37:03.120 insane they must be

00:37:04.420 badly motivated but

00:37:06.040 that's not likely to

00:37:06.840 be true they're

00:37:07.960 likely to be normal

00:37:08.760 human beings and

00:37:10.100 so I think we have

00:37:10.940 to look elsewhere

00:37:11.520 that's why I'm so

00:37:12.360 mystified because you

00:37:13.140 know the people I

00:37:14.100 have in my personal

00:37:14.900 life who are Trump

00:37:16.580 supporters I know

00:37:17.900 to be you know

00:37:18.820 smart and well

00:37:19.640 intentioned and it's

00:37:21.220 just that they're

00:37:22.280 completely aloof with

00:37:23.980 respect to all of

00:37:26.120 the downsides of his

00:37:28.780 personality and and

00:37:30.620 what to my eye are

00:37:31.700 the obvious risks

00:37:32.940 being magnified by

00:37:34.660 those downsides

00:37:35.480 yeah what an amazing

00:37:36.360 species we are that

00:37:37.240 we can believe such

00:37:38.400 obviously false things

00:37:39.760 I think I think

00:37:41.000 there's some people

00:37:41.580 who've done some

00:37:41.960 work on that

00:37:42.600 yeah yeah so yeah

00:37:45.460 no I agree that

00:37:46.580 the style of

00:37:47.480 communication and

00:37:48.680 it's created an

00:37:50.220 information space

00:37:51.860 where it really is

00:37:53.040 just total war all

00:37:54.620 the time that's

00:37:55.340 right information

00:37:55.840 terms that's right

00:37:56.980 yeah and that's no

00:37:58.140 way yeah and I

00:37:58.840 don't think our

00:37:59.180 democracy can survive

00:38:00.120 that I think that

00:38:01.140 if things keep going

00:38:02.300 the way they're

00:38:02.800 going our country is

00:38:04.000 going to fail

00:38:04.460 catastrophically I'm

00:38:05.760 not predicting that

00:38:06.480 it will because I

00:38:07.220 don't think things

00:38:07.860 will keep on going

00:38:08.620 the way they're

00:38:08.940 going but the

00:38:09.780 trends are really

00:38:10.560 bad and they've

00:38:11.120 been really bad for

00:38:12.180 for at least 10

00:38:12.880 years more than

00:38:13.440 that even so what

00:38:15.040 would you change

00:38:16.240 I mean if you

00:38:16.580 could actually get

00:38:17.560 Jack Dorsey and

00:38:19.000 Mark Zuckerberg and

00:38:20.040 other people to just

00:38:20.980 take your advice

00:38:22.200 what would you

00:38:23.600 change

00:38:24.640 so yeah there's I

00:38:25.580 mean there's all

00:38:26.160 kinds of systems I

00:38:26.980 change including you

00:38:28.360 know elections and

00:38:29.480 Congress and all that

00:38:30.220 but if we're going to

00:38:30.620 focus on social media

00:38:31.660 Tobias and I offered a

00:38:33.400 couple of suggestions

00:38:34.380 the most important

00:38:36.300 one the most important

00:38:37.160 single thing that we

00:38:38.220 think needs to change

00:38:39.720 is there has to be

00:38:41.200 some kind of identity

00:38:42.780 verification for our

00:38:44.140 major platforms I'm

00:38:45.860 we're not saying that

00:38:46.720 you have to post with

00:38:47.580 your real name that

00:38:48.820 we understand that

00:38:49.480 there's often a need

00:38:50.340 to not to use an

00:38:51.740 avatar or a fake name

00:38:53.200 but imagine but you

00:38:55.600 know if democracy is

00:38:56.600 moving into a virtual

00:38:57.740 public square if if

00:38:59.380 what's fundamental to

00:39:00.180 our democracy is how

00:39:00.960 we engage with each

00:39:02.060 other and we're no

00:39:03.460 longer doing that in

00:39:04.280 newspapers and real

00:39:05.180 public squares we're

00:39:05.900 now doing it on

00:39:06.680 Facebook and Twitter

00:39:08.240 and Instagram places

00:39:09.040 like that I think

00:39:09.700 these places have an

00:39:11.000 obligation to create a

00:39:13.100 kind of public square

00:39:14.060 that that fosters some

00:39:16.740 sort of understanding

00:39:17.500 some sort of working

00:39:18.400 out and that really

00:39:19.520 cracks down on

00:39:21.060 intimidation it is

00:39:22.440 stunning to me that

00:39:24.000 you can make death

00:39:25.240 threats rape threats

00:39:26.620 racist rants you can

00:39:28.040 say anything you want

00:39:29.360 and the worst that'll

00:39:30.960 happen to you is you

00:39:32.080 know eventually your

00:39:33.540 account will be closed

00:39:34.100 down and then you

00:39:34.600 could just make 10

00:39:35.240 others with no

00:39:36.260 verification and the

00:39:38.040 Russians figured this

00:39:38.760 out long ago and a

00:39:40.420 lot of Americans do it

00:39:41.380 too so if we're

00:39:43.300 serious about having

00:39:44.080 a democracy that has

00:39:45.020 a public square and

00:39:45.880 that public square

00:39:46.520 happens on these

00:39:47.080 platforms I think

00:39:48.380 there has to be at

00:39:49.220 least enough skin in

00:39:51.000 the game that our

00:39:52.720 accountability that

00:39:54.120 when people open an

00:39:55.060 account on on

00:39:56.120 Facebook or Twitter

00:39:57.100 Instagram or any of

00:39:57.920 the major platforms

00:39:58.720 there they let's

00:40:00.460 let's suppose it

00:40:01.140 worked like this the

00:40:02.820 platform would send

00:40:03.900 them out to some

00:40:04.680 other entity maybe

00:40:05.640 it's a non-government

00:40:06.660 agency entity it's a

00:40:08.280 non-profit the

00:40:09.480 internet has a number

00:40:10.160 of those and that

00:40:11.300 that entity just

00:40:13.500 verifies that you

00:40:14.880 are a real person

00:40:15.940 associated with a

00:40:16.880 country and that you

00:40:18.620 are over 18 or not

00:40:20.500 if you're under 18 it

00:40:21.680 would you know there

00:40:22.360 might be another cut

00:40:22.960 off like 13 because

00:40:24.320 right now any 11

00:40:25.960 year old can get on

00:40:26.840 any platform that she

00:40:27.980 wants to and that's a

00:40:29.200 whole nother set of

00:40:29.780 issues we can talk

00:40:30.500 about mental health

00:40:31.240 effects on girls and

00:40:32.800 all kinds of other

00:40:33.420 effects on teenagers

00:40:34.400 but I think that's the

00:40:35.720 most important thing is

00:40:36.640 that we have to reduce

00:40:37.500 trolling intimidation

00:40:38.900 you know I don't

00:40:39.740 want to go into a

00:40:40.420 public square where

00:40:41.140 anybody can like you

00:40:42.160 know you know hit me

00:40:43.220 over the head or throw

00:40:44.020 acid in my face and

00:40:44.900 run away laughing and

00:40:46.180 there's nothing I can

00:40:46.780 do about it that's

00:40:47.940 number one

00:40:48.360 yeah so is there a

00:40:50.240 tension between that

00:40:51.980 and our you know

00:40:53.980 broader concern about

00:40:55.280 free speech I mean

00:40:56.720 obviously these are

00:40:57.300 private platforms and

00:40:58.260 they can regulate speech

00:40:59.320 however they want but

00:41:00.220 given that they're

00:41:01.600 essentially becoming

00:41:03.120 internet infrastructure

00:41:04.480 and they are becoming a

00:41:06.540 kind of public square for

00:41:07.640 which there's no

00:41:08.380 alternative the airing

00:41:10.200 on the side of just

00:41:11.920 basically defaulting to

00:41:13.300 the constitution has

00:41:14.980 seemed tempting what

00:41:16.940 what yeah how do you

00:41:18.160 think about free speech

00:41:19.060 concerns sure so I

00:41:21.280 would hate to live in a

00:41:22.020 country in which if

00:41:22.960 somebody espoused an

00:41:24.720 opinion that somebody

00:41:26.340 else or the government

00:41:27.140 didn't like that that

00:41:28.000 person could be arrested

00:41:28.860 or punished so to me

00:41:30.420 that's the core of free

00:41:31.300 speech you're not there

00:41:31.920 are no thought crimes

00:41:32.740 there are no speech

00:41:33.660 crimes other than

00:41:34.700 obviously intimidation

00:41:35.880 threats there are

00:41:36.420 certain categories that

00:41:37.220 are not constitutionally

00:41:38.120 protected so I would

00:41:40.220 not want I don't want

00:41:41.400 a solution in which

00:41:42.140 platforms have to look

00:41:43.600 at what you say and

00:41:44.620 and judge each thing you

00:41:46.260 say what I'd rather is

00:41:48.500 that it's not focused on

00:41:49.880 the thing you say it's

00:41:51.880 focused on the the

00:41:54.200 features of the space

00:41:56.360 and so if as long as we

00:41:59.220 allow anonymous trolls

00:42:00.720 in well do you have a

00:42:02.160 constitutional right to

00:42:03.200 say whatever you want

00:42:04.020 without anyone knowing

00:42:05.320 who you are I don't

00:42:06.800 think so do you have a

00:42:08.280 right to do you have a

00:42:09.680 right to reach millions

00:42:10.540 of people no you have a

00:42:12.020 right to say what you

00:42:12.740 want without being

00:42:13.360 punished but you know as

00:42:14.420 as it's sometimes said

00:42:15.080 freedom of speech does

00:42:16.080 not mean freedom of

00:42:16.960 reach the platforms are

00:42:18.600 under no obligation to

00:42:19.760 let you reach millions of

00:42:21.240 people with claims that

00:42:22.740 chloroquine is them is a

00:42:24.060 miracle cure that's not

00:42:25.240 that's not free speech so

00:42:27.020 I think just you know

00:42:28.480 these platforms they're not

00:42:30.320 they're not individuals

00:42:31.860 talking you know in the

00:42:33.460 public square and they're

00:42:34.560 not newspapers there's

00:42:36.240 somewhere in between and

00:42:38.020 we don't our law doesn't

00:42:39.000 quite account for that

00:42:39.820 yet but I think just as we

00:42:41.020 have a lot of

00:42:41.700 responsibilities placed on

00:42:42.860 newspapers and magazines

00:42:44.040 I think we need some sort

00:42:45.820 of in-between thing for

00:42:46.940 these platforms and that

00:42:47.900 means no you can't just

00:42:49.300 open a hundred accounts and

00:42:50.640 say whatever you want all

00:42:51.620 day long and attack people

00:42:52.820 without without anyone

00:42:54.100 knowing who you are

00:42:54.840 right so now what are your

00:42:57.300 thoughts about the 2020

00:42:59.400 election and you know now

00:43:02.080 the the concern about the

00:43:03.940 Biden campaign and his

00:43:05.760 viability yeah really on two

00:43:07.660 fronts I mean so that we

00:43:08.600 have the Tara Reid allegations

00:43:10.840 and surrounding those we have

00:43:14.300 this fairly credible charge of

00:43:18.320 hypocrisy against the left

00:43:20.200 because you know we're on the

00:43:21.500 left we're all about me too and

00:43:23.140 believe all women but then the

00:43:26.180 inconvenient woman shows up

00:43:27.800 making fairly shocking claims

00:43:30.600 about the only candidate

00:43:32.840 standing between us and four

00:43:34.360 more years of Trump and what we

00:43:36.180 see is a either a massive

00:43:38.720 disinclination to even hear the

00:43:41.360 allegations and once that

00:43:43.720 becomes untenable we what we've

00:43:45.200 now seen is an analysis of the

00:43:47.800 allegations that you know does

00:43:49.940 frankly suggest a kind of double

00:43:52.400 standard where you know we yeah

00:43:54.320 we could go hard against Brett

00:43:56.000 Kavanaugh when he was nominated

00:43:57.980 for the Supreme Court based on

00:43:59.800 more or less nothing but the

00:44:01.700 fairly dim memory of one person

00:44:04.740 and we're in a similar situation

00:44:07.200 here and behaving rather

00:44:09.880 differently I mean the way I

00:44:11.920 reconcile this you know is just

00:44:14.500 that I think Trump is so dangerous

00:44:18.500 I think four more years of him

00:44:19.860 would be so awful for many of the

00:44:22.220 reasons you mentioned and I do

00:44:24.720 think there's something

00:44:25.740 especially awful about doubling

00:44:27.600 down on Trump for a second term

00:44:30.120 I mean what that says about our

00:44:31.520 country that's right it would

00:44:32.300 validate that it wasn't a fluke we

00:44:34.000 really meant it yeah yeah we know

00:44:36.000 exactly what we're buying here and

00:44:37.680 we're going to buy it again for

00:44:38.700 four more years yeah I mean it's

00:44:40.700 just I don't know how American

00:44:42.580 standing recovers I mean we

00:44:44.240 literally have to have the Messiah

00:44:46.280 come for 2024 to reboot but so

00:44:49.580 given that you know I honestly

00:44:51.920 don't care what is true here I

00:44:55.480 mean it's like I can own that he

00:44:57.980 might have done something

00:44:58.760 absolutely awful which should in a

00:45:01.300 normal world disqualify him for

00:45:03.980 the presidency I don't feel like I

00:45:05.840 know that I don't feel like I don't

00:45:07.260 know that I just feel that whoever

00:45:09.380 Joe Biden is or has been he's better

00:45:12.780 than Trump yeah just his facade of

00:45:15.820 professionalism as a normal politician

00:45:18.240 and a normally empathic person is so

00:45:22.400 much better than what Trump manages

00:45:24.300 to muster as a person that there's

00:45:26.900 really nothing to decide here and for

00:45:28.720 me that seems to skirt hypocrisy I'm

00:45:32.000 not inclined to treat Tara Reid's

00:45:33.820 allegations differently than than

00:45:37.080 Blossy Ford's and if that's the apt

00:45:39.240 comparison it's just that the context

00:45:42.140 is so different that in this case they

00:45:44.300 they don't matter I consider this a

00:45:46.160 political emergency that only has one

00:45:48.200 adequate resolution which is somebody

00:45:50.120 other than Trump becomes president

00:45:51.820 yeah so without getting into the

00:45:54.040 details I have not been following the

00:45:55.220 story closely enough to have a view

00:45:56.500 about what might have actually

00:45:57.440 happened but the key thing that I

00:45:59.700 would want us to focus on here if

00:46:01.780 you're asking about the implications

00:46:03.180 for the election is enthusiasm passion

00:46:06.340 things like that so Trump won the

00:46:09.380 election he didn't in 2016 not because

00:46:12.380 people loved him and wanted him but

00:46:15.140 because we have negative partisanship in

00:46:17.160 this country that is since 2004 we vote

00:46:20.180 more political scientists tell us that

00:46:21.920 you know the the strategy for president

00:46:23.920 used to always be you run to the

00:46:25.360 outside to get your party's nomination

00:46:26.760 and then because America is a fairly

00:46:28.660 moderate country you have to run to

00:46:30.300 the center to get that to win in the

00:46:32.080 general and in 2004 call Karl Rove

00:46:34.860 correctly calculated that the center

00:46:36.920 had shrunk so much that the key was

00:46:39.200 turnout and so they went with gay

00:46:41.200 marriage to try to inflame the

00:46:43.000 evangelicals and it worked they got

00:46:45.060 higher turnout on the right so since

00:46:47.780 then that has been more of a winning

00:46:49.840 strategy and negative partisanship

00:46:51.880 voting against what you don't want is

00:46:55.400 more powerful than voting for what you

00:46:57.380 do want and that I think explains how

00:47:00.920 Donald Trump was able to win in 2016

00:47:03.260 when it seems as though he didn't even

00:47:05.480 want to win he made no preparations for

00:47:08.100 it he didn't spend any of his own money

00:47:09.420 he didn't campaign that hard so he you

00:47:12.660 know Hillary Clinton ran a terrible

00:47:14.100 campaign and against someone who

00:47:16.640 wasn't trying to win and was a complete

00:47:18.340 mess and had no ground game and didn't

00:47:20.320 play by the the normal rules and even

00:47:24.680 though she won the popular vote he still

00:47:27.220 did win by the recognized rules of the

00:47:29.560 game so and that's because her people

00:47:32.980 were not passionate and you know the

00:47:34.820 tone in your voice just before when you

00:47:37.100 were saying why of course you're going

00:47:38.140 to vote for Biden was similar to what a

00:47:40.260 lot of people were saying about Hillary

00:47:41.500 obviously there were very different

00:47:42.740 issues but people weren't passionate

00:47:44.240 about her but they would say well yeah

00:47:45.940 but I mean but she's better than the

00:47:47.000 alternative so that is how Trump won it

00:47:50.280 she it should have you know he should

00:47:51.760 have lost in a landslide but he but he

00:47:53.980 didn't my fear is that while Biden is

00:47:57.500 not an inspiring candidate I do believe

00:47:59.460 the people have known him for a long

00:48:00.540 time who say that he's a fundamentally

00:48:02.480 decent man I that doesn't mean that he

00:48:05.220 didn't do something inappropriate with a

00:48:06.760 with a young woman in the Senate I have

00:48:08.120 no idea but the there's not a lot of

00:48:12.160 enthusiasm for him before people

00:48:14.360 generally like him Democrats I think

00:48:16.680 were okay with him but a lot of groups

00:48:19.060 were not and and that was the big

00:48:20.680 question was you know will the people

00:48:22.920 who wanted Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth

00:48:24.920 Warren you know will they come back to

00:48:27.780 vote for him in the fall and now you add

00:48:30.480 in this which is going to alienate a lot

00:48:33.740 of people particularly women and

00:48:35.540 particularly young women for whom these

00:48:37.020 issues are much more salient these days

00:48:38.760 so I'm extremely concerned about the

00:48:42.840 fall election because I think the

00:48:44.840 Democrats you know the Republicans I was

00:48:47.620 I was fully expecting the Democrats to

00:48:49.800 win no matter who the nominee was unless

00:48:51.160 it was Sanders I was expecting the

00:48:52.540 Democrats were going to win because of

00:48:55.880 the passion issue but now I don't know I

00:48:58.940 don't know what's going to happen and if

00:49:00.320 if Biden is not if a number of

00:49:02.220 constituencies are not enthusiastic

00:49:03.560 they're not going to turn out especially

00:49:05.800 if there are still risks to turning out

00:49:08.580 and especially if mail-in voting is not

00:49:10.460 easy and universal for God's sakes it's

00:49:13.000 you know during a pandemic of course we

00:49:15.700 should all be voting by mail or by

00:49:17.740 internet or by or by other remote

00:49:19.280 methods but everything's so politicized

00:49:21.440 and there's so much incompetence that that

00:49:22.760 may not happen so I don't know what is

00:49:25.060 going to happen and it's another reason

00:49:26.720 for for alarm what about the perception

00:49:29.380 this is the second thing that's dogging

00:49:31.660 Biden the perception of his senescence

00:49:34.800 essentially I mean he's obviously lost a

00:49:37.800 step with respect to his speech and

00:49:39.840 memory and again we're in an environment

00:49:42.740 where there is an asymmetry here with

00:49:46.720 respect to the way his glitches play to

00:49:50.260 the average audience and the way Trump's

00:49:52.400 glitches play I mean Trump is a producer

00:49:54.980 of word salad yeah much if not most of

00:49:58.180 the time and yet it doesn't make him

00:50:00.600 seem old now that's just more Trump

00:50:03.840 right it's like he's got the energy of a

00:50:05.700 20 year old on Adderall yeah so he's full

00:50:09.100 of life and he's just chaos whereas every

00:50:12.520 single glitch every hiccup in his speech

00:50:16.460 for Biden you're holding your breath

00:50:19.300 hoping he can get to the end of the

00:50:20.460 sentence yeah the optics are so different

00:50:22.800 it's surprising and I mean this is the

00:50:25.060 other thing that worries me no that's

00:50:26.520 that's right this is this is why I was

00:50:28.640 not I was not a fan of Joe Biden I mean I

00:50:32.180 like him personally as a person I agree

00:50:34.020 with you he's you know he's a reasonable

00:50:35.480 person but he was you know he ran for

00:50:38.360 president twice before he was a bad

00:50:39.740 candidate and he was not he's not a good

00:50:42.380 campaigner he's not eloquent and you know

00:50:45.360 as a psychologist what I can add is that

00:50:47.260 the research on cognitive aging is just

00:50:49.920 stunning people are at their peak in terms

00:50:52.420 of fluency and speed in their 20s and then

00:50:56.280 it's kind of downhill downhill from there

00:50:58.460 until you get to your 50s or 60s and then

00:51:01.740 this downward slope accelerates so in your

00:51:03.840 70s it really accelerates so most 70 year

00:51:06.520 olds are still doing okay on cognitive

00:51:08.320 tests although they're not nearly as sharp

00:51:09.700 as they used to be but as you go beyond

00:51:11.780 70 by the time you get to 80 most 80

00:51:14.260 year olds are not doing so well obviously

00:51:15.600 you know some are but if Biden was not a

00:51:18.160 good candidate long ago when his brain

00:51:19.800 was much younger I think it's you know

00:51:22.380 there's not much reason to think that

00:51:23.600 he's gonna be much better now and I think

00:51:25.900 we're seeing the signs of that so as you

00:51:27.680 say it's also the issue of vitality and

00:51:29.520 that matters in politics people want a

00:51:31.900 vigorous leader not one who seems frail

00:51:34.240 or scattered so for a lot of reasons you

00:51:37.920 know I think that obviously most or many

00:51:40.440 Democrats wish they had perfect candidate

00:51:42.760 many Democrats think that there were better

00:51:44.880 candidates and with the with the Tara

00:51:47.820 Reid allegations now the you know the

00:51:49.920 candidacy is even weaker so my god is

00:51:52.420 this a drama I mean just when you think

00:51:53.960 it can't get more insane it gets more

00:51:55.880 insane so who do you think he should pick

00:51:58.560 for his VP that I you know that I don't

00:52:01.960 know I've not given any thought to I I

00:52:03.640 imagine that he committed to well I don't

00:52:05.980 know why but you know he committed to

00:52:08.120 picking a woman I suppose knowing that this

00:52:10.680 these allegations were coming so we know

00:52:13.560 once he's done that I don't have I'm not

00:52:15.680 so I'm not a political prognosticator I

00:52:17.720 can't read the you know the horse race

00:52:19.780 politics I don't have a view on that

00:52:21.720 part of your analysis of what social

00:52:25.320 media has done to us and the new kind of

00:52:28.940 balkanization of our epistemology has

00:52:31.660 it you've you've spent some time focusing

00:52:33.960 on the young I mean you know Gen Z and

00:52:37.540 below I mean now we're we're soon dealing

00:52:40.080 with with a cohort of people for whom

00:52:42.240 social media is as common a fact of the

00:52:45.820 world as water which is to say there's

00:52:48.060 never been a time where they were without

00:52:49.460 it yeah and we're also having a younger

00:52:52.600 generation that seems destined to graduate

00:52:57.560 into a economic environment that is just

00:53:01.620 as objectively punishing as any in our

00:53:06.080 lifetime I mean when you think of you

00:53:07.840 what it would be like to be looking for a

00:53:10.620 job in six months unless we reboot here in

00:53:15.100 some way that just is ushers in a

00:53:18.440 renaissance of a sort that will be

00:53:20.560 fundamentally surprising it's hard to see

00:53:22.760 how we escape a fairly dismal economy for a

00:53:25.880 good long while how do you think about the

00:53:29.120 cohort you're currently teaching as

00:53:30.760 undergraduates what's the near future hold

00:53:33.100 yeah so paradoxically it it it could be it

00:53:36.780 could end up in the long run being good for

00:53:39.400 them that is you know clearly it's going to be

00:53:41.720 devastating to their economic prospects in

00:53:44.040 the near term and research on previous

00:53:46.020 generations that graduate into bad economies

00:53:48.060 shows that it does hurt their earnings for the

00:53:49.820 rest of their life on average so I'm not

00:53:51.860 saying this is good overall but the trajectory

00:53:54.680 the the outlook for Gen Z was horrific it was

00:53:57.660 terrible their rates of anxiety depression self-harm and

00:54:01.220 suicide have been spiking upwards since 2012

00:54:04.740 roughly especially for well suicide is up for

00:54:07.480 both both genders but depression anxiety is

00:54:10.540 especially up for girls and so Greg Lukianoff and I

00:54:13.620 wrote this book the coddling of the American mind

00:54:15.560 and we think the two major causes there are many but

00:54:18.340 the two major causes are the vast overprotection

00:54:20.820 the safetyism that we put on kids in the 90s we stopped

00:54:24.580 letting them play outside we told them the world is

00:54:26.860 dangerous we let them just play with devices

00:54:29.480 inside and the normal risk-taking the normal

00:54:32.320 adventures the normal testing the limits of your

00:54:35.480 physical abilities and that we we denied them beginning in

00:54:39.620 the 90s and early 2000s and so this we think is the major

00:54:43.340 reason why Gen Z is coming out so much more fragile and

00:54:46.920 depressed and anxious than the Millennials were since we're

00:54:49.840 talking about kids born 1996 and later the other factor we

00:54:53.240 believe is too early exposure to social media and here I

00:54:56.420 actually have some news to news to report brand new news the

00:54:59.960 long-running debate over screen time I think is actually

00:55:03.400 nearing a resolution that is in in the coddling of the

00:55:06.800 American mind Greg and I focused on social media that's

00:55:08.920 what we thought was worst but we did sometimes refer to

00:55:11.860 screen time or that parents should limit screen time and

00:55:15.480 some other researchers pushed back on us and said no look you

00:55:18.680 know here's the our evidence is that the amount of hours spent

00:55:21.640 on screens that isn't related to mental illness and then Gene

00:55:25.100 Twenge and I reanalyzed data and are basically able to show

00:55:28.680 that consistently if you look at almost all the data sets that

00:55:31.840 show no overall effect of all screen time well if you dig in and

00:55:36.880 you say okay not all screens including TV but rather just social

00:55:41.000 media and not all kids but just girls then you consistently find a

00:55:47.080 relationship between heavy social media use and depression and

00:55:50.300 anxiety and it shows up in lots of data sets lots of different

00:55:53.340 studies and experiments back this up that when people go off of

00:55:56.580 social media they tend to get happier so anyway all I'm saying is I

00:55:59.900 don't think parents need to freak out about screens per se if what

00:56:03.960 they're concerned about is depression anxiety but they should

00:56:06.540 still look out if what they care about is that their kids actually

00:56:09.600 do other things like go outside or learn to climb trees or go out

00:56:13.200 with their friends in person which of course will happen again

00:56:15.780 someday but not this year yeah well so what do you do with the fact

00:56:18.540 that now a concern about the dangers even invisible dangers out in

00:56:24.780 the world seems all too warranted right so now we have a cohort of

00:56:28.580 kids I mean I've got two daughters six and eleven who are now

00:56:33.020 quarantined and having a fairly unusual experience I mean they're

00:56:37.060 happily our limitations on screen time have been impressively relaxed so

00:56:42.460 they're they're enjoying that but yeah but tell me about social

00:56:45.420 media is your 11 year old on Instagram no no no good all you all I mean I'm

00:56:50.580 going to be as conservative as as can be achieved on that front but there are

00:56:56.820 elements of it that are starting to leak into her experience now just because

00:57:00.740 of yeah the classroom is on you know zoom and they have common projects where

00:57:05.540 they're commenting on each other's work and so they're they're texting and so

00:57:08.860 there's communication in front of an audience happening you know a fair

00:57:12.420 amount and how that differs from social media really is just that it's not open

00:57:17.540 to the rest of society it's just her among her friends but even there it just

00:57:23.140 seems to me like a whole new module has been installed in her brain which is you

00:57:28.400 know her attention is being captured by somebody else's response to something she

00:57:33.040 put out there and that you know that has many of the features of what that would

00:57:36.700 concern one with social media yeah that's right so to the extent that

00:57:40.400 screens foster direct face-to-face interaction talking on the phone by

00:57:45.940 FaceTime that's all great there's no problem at all there I actually bought my

00:57:50.160 son an Xbox when this all hit he wanted one for a long time and the research

00:57:56.340 doesn't seem to show that it's related to anxiety depression although it is very

00:57:59.940 addictive and it does tend to fill up all the available time so he has three hours a

00:58:03.840 day on Xbox but it's great that he you know he's really playing it with his

00:58:07.200 friends so to the extent that these devices facilitate real direct

00:58:11.480 interactions that's great but yes as you say the problem is a lot of these are

00:58:15.580 indirect interactions where people are rating and commenting and that seems to

00:58:18.520 be especially hard on girls so I think this is so this could get worse but here's

00:58:23.700 where I think things could get reset there is actually danger out there now

00:58:27.780 because of the virus now not that much for kids but it's a physical thing whereas what

00:58:32.600 we were getting to before this hit was emotional safety we were treating kids

00:58:37.220 that as though they were so fragile that if they were exposed to bad news that they

00:58:41.940 would somehow be damaged and what I'm hoping is that this this pandemic will

00:58:48.100 reset some of our safetyism and move us away from sort of the trivial things we've

00:58:52.180 been looking at that the effort to protect kids self-esteem the effort to

00:58:56.100 protect them from words and ideas so having more adversity in your childhood

00:59:02.440 could end up being beneficial and this is the idea of anti-fragility which is

00:59:06.460 really central to our book the word was coined by Nassim Taleb you know lots of

00:59:11.080 people have many views about about him but I'll just say that that idea but that

00:59:16.320 idea I think that idea is a good one yeah I should say he he has views about many

00:59:21.260 people too so yes I've noticed but so I just want I don't want to miss this one

00:59:25.920 point so but what you just said suggests to me there's another trap to fall in here

00:59:29.740 which is yeah overprotection if I'm trying to curate just go back to where what you

00:59:35.100 just asked me with respect to my allowing my daughter the social media experience I

00:59:41.760 mean one the impulse there is to protect her from the onslaught of negative or you

00:59:49.120 know destabilizing or anxiety producing information that I don't want her to have

00:59:53.780 and it seems to me there are two potential pitfalls there one is just this is

00:59:59.040 another form of coddling right I'm trying to protect her from something that she

01:00:02.700 should develop the tools to just assimilate or one could say that and then

01:00:06.940 there's just this other feature which I think is natural to worry about which is

01:00:10.560 if all of her friends are on Instagram and she's the one who isn't well then then

01:00:15.880 there's just a social exclusion penalty that you would imagine a young teen would

01:00:20.640 pay yeah so to take your first point it does seem as though I might be

01:00:24.680 contradicting myself I'm saying that in general kids should be exposed to

01:00:28.540 adversity they should learn from experience and you should let them make

01:00:31.500 mistakes yes in general that is true but there are certain things such as let's

01:00:36.680 say alcohol heroin prostitution gambling where we say you know what my 11 year

01:00:42.600 world is not ready for that you know maybe when she's 16 18 or well obviously

01:00:46.420 not prostitution but the point is that there are certain things that an

01:00:50.060 adolescent brain is just not not ready for right and and what I found from

01:00:54.340 speaking with a lot of middle school and high school kids is I ask them all right

01:00:58.820 so you know how many of you have been shamed on social media okay all hands go up

01:01:02.160 and I say now how many of you think that being shamed on social media

01:01:04.880 toughens you that is you go through it you say you know what I don't care what

01:01:08.760 people think of me you know I've been shamed so many times I don't care

01:01:11.280 anymore no hands go up how many of you think it makes you more cautious more

01:01:14.940 fearful you double check and triple check yourself you're not authentic most

01:01:19.100 hands go up so there's something about public shaming and exposure that is

01:01:23.880 especially unhealthy for middle school kids and especially for girls so I'm not

01:01:28.400 saying you know I it's a losing battle to keep it out of high school but look the

01:01:31.800 minimum age you have to be 13 to get an account but by fifth or sixth grade most of

01:01:35.980 the girls have it in many schools and that is something that I'm really trying

01:01:39.720 to change as long as there is now evidence that social media is particularly

01:01:44.660 bad for girls now the Millennials weren't harmed by it they didn't get this

01:01:48.280 until they were in their 20s but I suspect that middle school is the place to

01:01:52.120 focus I think we really need to try to get social media out of middle school and

01:01:55.520 that would solve your second question because yes if it's only your kid you

01:01:59.320 know when I kept my son off of video games he did feel excluded because the other

01:02:03.000 boys were all on it all day long so it has to be done systemically and that's

01:02:06.580 why I think middle school is the place to focus if anybody's listening to this

01:02:10.020 was any influence over middle school try to get a school-wide policy that

01:02:14.460 discourages parents from letting their kids from discourages anyone from

01:02:17.980 having a social media account until they get to high school wait till they're

01:02:21.380 14 or so wait till they're in high school but you know middle school is so

01:02:23.980 hard already especially on girls so don't make it harder so now let's pivot to

01:02:30.000 topics which you know on their face may seem impressively detached from our the

01:02:35.860 current concerns but not really I mean I want to talk about human well-being and

01:02:41.280 experiences of the positive end of the spectrum of human psychology and how we

01:02:47.300 conceptualize this terrain and this is if anything an interest in this has been

01:02:54.200 heightened by our current circumstance because so many people have been

01:02:58.700 forced into something that impressively resembles a kind of retreat right I

01:03:05.760 mean the people are experiencing solitude to a degree that is not normal for

01:03:10.360 them and for most of us there's been a forced reprioritization of values we have

01:03:18.380 a vantage point from which to see how we've been living all these years and the

01:03:22.520 kinds of things that have captivated our attention and much of that has been

01:03:27.120 stripped away or at least shuffled to a degree that many people are experiencing

01:03:32.760 even a silver lining to this quarantine because they're experiencing better time

01:03:39.080 with their families in many cases or this heightened sense of uncertainty the sense

01:03:43.940 that really anything can happen at any time and that's always been true right but we

01:03:50.780 live most of our lives as though we take a lot for granted and taking those things for

01:03:55.460 granted amounts to a kind of death denial and a sense of control that has never really

01:04:02.040 been factual so there's a there's a lot to motivate a conversation about things like

01:04:08.500 meditation and psychedelics and what they can reveal about the nature of the self and

01:04:14.400 experiences of self-transcendence so um let's dive into the the deep end of the pool john

01:04:20.020 yep perhaps to start give me a sense of your your background here i know you spent some time in

01:04:26.400 india at some point in either in graduate school or as a postdoc but remind me what how you came to be

01:04:32.200 interested in these topics sure so you know because i study morality i've been interested in moral

01:04:39.160 transformations you get that from religious experiences william james book varieties of religious

01:04:45.260 experiences full of all these sudden moral rebirth from an encounter with with god so i've always

01:04:52.140 been interested in these self-transcendent experiences and their capacity to change

01:04:55.560 people's moral nature but actually there's a there's a very personal reason for it and and i've been

01:05:01.300 looking forward to talking about this with you because you've been out on this for a long time

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Making Sense - Sam Harris - May 18, 2020

#204 — A Conversation with Jonathan Haidt

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