Making Sense - Sam Harris - August 21, 2020


#215 — A Conversation with David Miliband


Episode Stats

Length

49 minutes

Words per Minute

166.05928

Word Count

8,278

Sentence Count

420

Misogynist Sentences

1

Hate Speech Sentences

30


Summary

David Miliband is the President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, the largest refugee resettlement agency in the United States, and a former British politician who served as Prime Minister, Education Minister and Foreign Minister. In this episode, he talks about how he got into politics, why he joined the ICRC, and why he decided to become a refugee. He also talks about his family history and how he became a refugee himself, and how that led him to a career in politics and international affairs. He also explains why he chose to leave his job as a politician to become the CEO of an organisation that helps refugees and internally displaced people around the world, and what it was like growing up in a British family with a British accent. He talks about the challenges he faced as a child growing up as a refugee, and the lessons he learned from his parents, both of whom were refugees themselves. This episode was produced by Sam Harris and edited by Alex Blumberg. It was edited by Annie-Rose Strasser and edited and produced by Emma Rainey. Our theme music was made by Micah Vellian and Matthew Boll. Our ad music was provided by Mark Phillips and Mark Phillips, and our ad design was done by Ian McKirdy, with additional mixing and mastering by Matthew Boll, and additional mixing by Matthew Crowell, and music engineering by Matthew Barnard, and mixed by Matthew Cradock, and mastering and mastering the music was by Matthew Karnacz, and editing by Ben Kavanagh, and his excellent mixing skills by James Callow, and Alex Blanchflower, and sound design by Rachel Ward, and production assistance by Matthew Stacey, and their excellent editing and mastering assistance by James Mee, and also a very good sound design and editing assistance by Jonathan Meegan, and Bobby Lord, and an excellent sound design, by the excellent Annie-Jane Shaw, and so on, and finally finally got it all transcribing it on a good sound editing by Jack Williams, and we got it on for you, the excellent sound effects by the amazing sound effects and mastering it on this amazing mixing and editing and editing at the excellent editing by Matthew Coughlansey, and all thanks to the excellent Vennedynde, and thanks to our excellent mastering and editing, and excellent mixing and sound effects at the amazing Rachel, and then we'll get it on the mixing and mixing at the mastering of the excellent mixing at this amazing editing and sound editing at our excellent sound engineer and editing.


Transcript

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.
00:00:08.480 This is Sam Harris.
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00:00:46.140 I am here with David Miliband.
00:00:48.100 David, thanks for joining me.
00:00:50.020 Thank you, Sam.
00:00:50.540 Thanks for having me.
00:00:51.840 So there's so much to talk about, and I'm really happy to have you on the podcast.
00:00:57.080 Let's just start with your background.
00:00:58.240 How is it that you come to know many of the things you will obviously know as we get rolling
00:01:03.940 here?
00:01:04.900 What have you been up to?
00:01:06.200 Well, you know that British people don't like talking about themselves, but here goes.
00:01:09.800 I'm proud to be the president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee.
00:01:13.500 It's an extraordinary American organization founded by Albert Einstein, a refugee in New
00:01:19.780 York in the 1930s.
00:01:21.200 He founded the International Rescue Committee to rescue Jews from Europe.
00:01:24.780 Our first employee, Ovarian Frye, employed to Marseille in 1940 and helped issue 2,000
00:01:32.240 passports, fake passports, that helped Jews predominantly, but also intellectuals escape from
00:01:39.040 occupied France.
00:01:39.880 People like Marc Chagall made it to the US because of the extraordinary heroism and ingenuity
00:01:45.660 of Varian Frye.
00:01:47.480 And today, the organization is an international humanitarian agency working in war zones and
00:01:53.020 for internally displaced and for refugees around the world.
00:01:56.220 And also the largest refugee resettlement agency in the United States, albeit there are
00:02:01.220 very few refugees coming into the United States at the moment, and no doubt we'll talk about
00:02:04.740 that.
00:02:05.340 I suppose one question that your listeners might be thinking is, well, how did a guy with
00:02:10.300 an accent that's more British than Brooklyn get to be the president and CEO of the International
00:02:15.720 Rescue Committee?
00:02:16.300 And I think that the backdrop is that I'd been in British politics and government for 25 years.
00:02:21.880 In the 1990s, I was part of the project led by people like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, who
00:02:28.880 became prime minister.
00:02:29.740 I was part of the project to turn the British Labour Party from an election-losing machine.
00:02:34.200 We'd lost four elections on the trot, 79, 83, 87, 92.
00:02:39.300 People ask, must Labour lose, question mark, after the 1992 election.
00:02:44.780 We were determined to rebuild a progressive party, a party of the centre-left that could win
00:02:49.920 elections. And I'd then been fortunate enough to be involved both on the policy side in the run-up
00:02:55.620 to 2001. And then in 2001, I was elected as a member of parliament for South Shields, which is
00:02:59.880 an ex-shipbuilding, ex-mining constituency in the northeast of England. I was proud to be the
00:03:05.500 member of parliament for 12 years until 2013. And in the 2000s, I was in government. I was minister
00:03:12.360 for schools for three years. I was secretary of state for the environment, time when we legislated
00:03:16.400 for the world's first emissions reduction requirements for 40, 50 years. Hence, we bound
00:03:22.420 the hands of future British parliament. And between 2007 and 2010, I had the extraordinary
00:03:27.560 honour of being the Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, the 74th Secretary of State for Foreign
00:03:31.480 and Commonwealth Affairs of the UK, representing the country around the world. And I'd spent my
00:03:36.500 time in diplomacy looking at global geopolitics, obviously. But we were in opposition in 2010.
00:03:42.620 I'd lost the leadership race for the Labour Party in 2010. And so I felt a frustration that while I was
00:03:48.940 proud to serve my constituents, I felt that I had more to give and more to do. And the International
00:03:54.000 Rescue Committee offered me the chance to try and address some really tough issues in global policy.
00:04:00.220 How do you get aid into Syria? How do you get education into Taliban-controlled areas of Afghanistan?
00:04:06.220 How do you tackle sexual violence in the Democratic Republic of Congo? And I felt that the IRC was a bit
00:04:13.120 of a sleeping giant. And it had a chance to become a great organisation. And I suppose one other point
00:04:18.740 that's relevant, and that I've learnt, I think, as I get older, is more important. Both of my parents
00:04:23.800 were refugees. My dad was a refugee from Belgium to the UK in 1940. My mum spent the war in Poland,
00:04:32.180 Poland, came as a 12-year-old in 1946, on her own. She was put on a boat by her mother. Her father had
00:04:40.480 been killed in a concentration camp. And they were both Jewish, my mum and dad. And my mum came to the
00:04:47.420 UK in 1946. And if Britain had not admitted refugees in the 1940s and 50s, then I, sure as nightfall as day,
00:04:56.620 I wouldn't be here today. And so in some way, working for an organisation that was committed to helping
00:05:01.700 people whose lives are shattered by conflict and disaster was a way of closing a circle, if you
00:05:07.280 like, and putting back something that related to my own history, albeit in very different circumstances
00:05:13.760 in the 21st century.
00:05:15.040 Hmm. Well, so you're obviously well-placed to speak about many of the things that interest me here. I
00:05:21.780 want to talk about the pandemic and our inept response to it, the especially inept response
00:05:28.440 of the United States. And what I certainly perceive to be America's loss of stature in the world. And
00:05:37.520 we can talk about the reasons for that. And you seem to be in a great position to triangulate on
00:05:42.680 our circumstance and view us both from inside and outside the US. I want to talk about that. But let's
00:05:48.780 speak about the IRC for a bit here, because I want people to understand what it does. And I want to
00:05:57.180 talk a little bit about the politics and ethics around just philanthropy and the way we think about
00:06:02.940 refugees and humanitarian aid generally. First, how would you differentiate if, in fact, there is daylight
00:06:10.000 between what the IRC does and some other groups? I know that the UN has its own refugee efforts, which I've
00:06:17.940 supported in the past. There's obviously Médecins Sans Frontières, Doctors Without Borders, that does
00:06:23.880 medical work in similar conditions, the Red Cross, Save the Children. People know about many of these
00:06:32.520 organizations. Where does IRC fit in that pantheon of people doing good in the world, you know, at
00:06:39.100 considerable risk and expense? And frankly, without the kind of plaudits, you know, in certainly in
00:06:48.300 mainstream conversation that you would expect all these groups to have?
00:06:51.840 Yes, it's interesting, but it's a confusing picture. And we're a non-governmental organization.
00:06:58.100 So the first point is we're different from the UN, because we are independent, we are adhering to
00:07:05.140 the humanitarian principles of independence and neutrality and impartiality, but we're not a
00:07:09.520 government agency. I think there are three or four ways that they make the IRC, the International
00:07:15.660 Rescue Committee unique, distinctive. One is that we're not a generalized anti-poverty agency. We're
00:07:22.320 focused on people whose lives are shattered by conflict and disaster. We're focused on people
00:07:29.200 who are in war zones, people who are internally displaced in their own countries, people who are
00:07:35.660 refugees. And I'll come back and explain a bit about the differences. And we're focused on people who
00:07:39.960 start new lives in countries like the United States or Germany. We work across the arc of crisis. We
00:07:46.640 work in about 35 to 40 countries, not the 120 countries that the anti-poverty agencies would
00:07:53.960 work in. We're defined by our origins in that way. And when I arrived, we were, we defined ourselves as
00:08:01.100 helping refugees and others. I thought that wasn't, I wouldn't have wanted to be an other. I thought we
00:08:05.340 had to do a better job of defining who we were and who we served. And we settled on this phrase that we
00:08:10.260 help people whose lives are shattered by conflict or disaster survive, recover, and gain control of
00:08:15.600 their lives. And so the first point is that we have a focus. We're not trying to do everything.
00:08:19.820 The second thing that I think makes the organization unusual is that it's both an international humanitarian
00:08:25.920 aid agency in 200 field sites around the world, 35 to 40 countries, 13,000 employees now,
00:08:33.520 and 17,000 auxiliary workers, many of whom are refugees and displaced people themselves. But
00:08:38.840 we're also a refugee resettlement agency in 25 US cities. We're the largest refugee resettlement agency
00:08:46.060 in the US. The US has historically been a leader in helping the most vulnerable refugees restart their
00:08:54.500 lives in a new country. Interestingly, Ronald Reagan was the president who admitted the most refugees in
00:09:01.360 the early 1980s, many from South Vietnam, 200, 210,000 a year. And under the Trump administration,
00:09:09.300 the bipartisan support for refugee entry into the US has been slashed by about three quarters.
00:09:14.360 But we are unusual, we're distinctive as an organization, but we're both an international
00:09:18.000 humanitarian aid agency. We're a global agency in that sense. But we're also US focused through our 25
00:09:24.340 cities. The third thing that I think makes us different is the focus on research and evidence. We
00:09:30.540 talk a lot about impact. We spend a lot of time trying to document best practice, we say all of our
00:09:35.940 programs must be evidence based or evidence generating. And we're now the largest research agency in the
00:09:42.780 humanitarian sector. If you want to study crisis, the plurality of impact evaluations are done in done by the
00:09:49.180 International Rescue Committee, and its partners. I suppose that the fourth element of this is, and that people
00:09:58.220 often ask about is, how does the organization recruit and work? And about 95% of our staff are hired locally in
00:10:08.220 the places that we work. So inside Syria, we've got 800 staff across the country in two main areas,
00:10:14.880 northeast and northwest. And that pattern of local recruitment adds to our credibility, it adds to our
00:10:20.200 local expertise, frankly, adds to our security. And so maybe just to put some flesh on the bones of this,
00:10:25.940 just to give you a sense. At the moment, we know that there are wars and conflicts taking place in
00:10:31.620 Syria, in Afghanistan, in Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, the most likely consequence of
00:10:37.260 a civil war is another civil war. That's why I talk about the crisis of diplomacy. Internal displacement,
00:10:42.880 that's people who've been, have had to flee their own homes, but stay within their own country. And in
00:10:48.480 Syria, to take that as an example, there are about seven to eight million internally displaced.
00:10:54.180 Globally, there are 45 million internally displaced. Then a refugee is someone who is forced from their
00:11:00.380 home, not for economic reasons, but for political or conflict reasons, and lands in the next door or
00:11:05.640 other country. And at the moment, there are about 29 and a half, 30 million refugees. If you're a
00:11:12.340 refugee who's crossed a border into a neighboring state or another state, and you are claiming refugee
00:11:17.840 status, but haven't yet received it, you're an asylum seeker. So there are about three and a half,
00:11:21.480 four million of those. If you tally those numbers up, it's 80 million people. So for the first time
00:11:26.300 since records began in the 1940s with the foundation of the UN, more than 1% of the world's population
00:11:32.840 are now forced from their homes by conflict and violence. Separate from economic migration,
00:11:39.600 these are people who are forcibly displaced. And so that's the kind of picture of who we are and where
00:11:45.780 we work. The final part of the jigsaw is we are one of the implementing agencies. We're funded
00:11:50.840 in the main, three quarters of our funding comes from governments. Our budget is about $850 million
00:11:56.640 this year. Three quarters of our funding comes from government, 25% from the private individuals,
00:12:03.440 foundations and corporations. And that's changed over the last five or six years that I've been at the
00:12:07.360 IOC. In that period, our budget is more or less doubled. And the amount of private funding has also
00:12:12.860 doubled in percentage of the total. But we're still partnering with US government,
00:12:18.620 EU governments, et cetera, predominantly Western governments, although some governments in the
00:12:23.660 Middle East. But we're also increasingly reliant on our private supporters. And we fit into the
00:12:29.060 framework of humanitarian aid by working with UN agencies, working with host governments where they
00:12:35.600 allow that, but always saying that it's the needs of the clients who drive us.
00:12:40.020 Hmm. Let's talk about the ethics and the politics around this, because frankly, we don't speak or
00:12:48.040 think about refugees very much unless there's some real obvious crisis or a crisis that for whatever
00:12:55.460 reason gets our attention. Maybe there's always a crisis and we just avert our eyes at a certain
00:12:59.900 point. But the time when this was really being talked about a lot as a phenomenon was during the
00:13:07.200 height of the Syrian civil war and the refugee crisis, so-called refugee crisis in Europe in
00:13:13.080 particular. And Trump's messaging around this issue, you know, captured a lot of attention in our local
00:13:22.480 US politics. There's so much here that's confusing and becomes fodder for cynicism in the end that I think
00:13:32.740 it would be good to just try to however patiently try to unpick some of these variables here. So for
00:13:38.900 instance, so from my point of view, it just seems to me that we have a responsibility in the developed
00:13:46.100 world to recognize that it's through no genius of our own that we weren't born in Syria in the middle
00:13:56.820 of a civil war. That no one can take responsibility for the good luck for not having been born in Syria
00:14:03.100 10 years ago, say. And therefore, it is surely a matter of luck that, you know, you and I and or
00:14:12.000 anyone listening to this hasn't found himself or herself and their children to be in dire need of
00:14:21.580 rescue from some hellscape of a failed state. So once you admit that, we can leave aside, you know,
00:14:30.700 whether or not, you know, a person's agency should factor into this moral calculus. But there really
00:14:36.140 is just no agency in play here. It's just a sheer disparity in luck. And, you know, those of us who
00:14:44.040 find ourselves to be among the luckiest people who have ever lived, living in, you know, reasonably
00:14:50.360 stable societies with a level of abundance that would be, you know, unimaginable in at least a quarter
00:14:58.540 of the world, we have a responsibility to help people who are objectively among the least lucky people
00:15:06.120 on earth at the moment. These are people living in poor, disease-ridden, and now conflict-ridden
00:15:13.120 spots on the earth where life has become completely unlivable. And yet, what happened, certainly in the
00:15:19.620 case of the Syrian diaspora, is political controversies around just what Angela Merkel did, you know, just
00:15:28.780 kind of opening the doors in a fairly sudden and unmitigated way to a flood of people, some of whom were
00:15:40.120 clearly refugees, but some, you know, upon even minimal analysis, revealed themselves to be economic
00:15:48.160 migrants. And so that was the first failure of distinction that made many people, you know, very
00:15:54.700 alarmed and closed the door to their what would otherwise have been a humanitarian response in many
00:16:00.500 of them. And it amplified right-wing populism, which, you know, obviously, if you go far enough to the
00:16:07.380 right, you have people who just don't care about refugees at all. But there were certainly people
00:16:11.760 in the middle who want to help, but recognize that you can't just have an open borders policy,
00:16:19.180 right? There has to be some criteria by which you admit people into your society, because, you know,
00:16:23.500 if you have a great social safety net, it simply cannot absorb all the needy people on earth,
00:16:29.600 you know, in any given state. So there has to be some filter. And a failure to distinguish
00:16:36.000 between refugees and economic migrants seemed pretty important, and seems like it will always
00:16:42.080 be important, at least to know who you're admitting. But in response to that right-wing
00:16:47.880 response, you know, both the extreme version and the reasonable version, one then encountered a
00:16:52.700 left-wing response, which seemed to grade fairly directly into a kind of open borders ethical
00:17:00.380 argument, which is, you know, you have no right to maintain anything about your society in the face
00:17:07.400 of this need. It's rarely put that starkly, but you find yourself, in arguing for anything like a sane
00:17:14.560 policy, you find yourself on a slippery slope where there is no handhold, and we just have to
00:17:20.540 allow, you know, all of humanity to equilibriate by osmosis, such that in the limit, there'd be no reason
00:17:27.220 to come to New York, or LA, or San Francisco, or London, because the quality of life there would
00:17:33.220 be reduced to whatever the common denominator would be for the entire planet. And no one's,
00:17:38.080 no taxpayer in any of those cities is going to sign on to that. So let's just start with,
00:17:44.820 react to this initial concern.
00:17:47.960 Yeah, there's a good deal to unpack there, and I think it's worth unpacking. And if I may,
00:17:53.220 I think we should unpack three things, because I think they do play into the debate. One is exactly
00:17:57.380 the point you make, which is, are these people real refugees, or are they not? There's a second
00:18:04.580 and third, which I'd just like to touch on, which I think does speak to the popular and political
00:18:09.360 reaction around this. The second is around security, and are they properly vetted, which was a big issue
00:18:15.700 in the US. And the third is, is there control of our borders, which speaks to your point. And if I may,
00:18:22.760 I'll just address all three, because I think it's really important, if you want to defend
00:18:26.760 the rights of refugees, that you take head on the points that are made when they are a reasonable
00:18:34.540 point. So the first point is, how can you tell? What's the definition and how can you tell? The
00:18:38.880 1951 Refugee Convention, transposed into US law in 1980 in the Refugee Act, talks about a well-founded
00:18:46.080 fear of persecution. And what that means is, is it safe for the person to go home? And sometimes that
00:18:52.400 can be told by where they're from. So it's not safe to send a Yazidi back to northwestern Iraq,
00:19:01.200 for obvious reasons. They've been chased out. It's not safe to send a Muslim back to Burma,
00:19:07.420 Myanmar, because they've been ethnically cleansed out of there. It's not safe to send a Sunni young
00:19:14.240 man back to Syria, but he's going to be persecuted by the Assad regime. And my point to people is to
00:19:21.200 say, we have now, over 70 years since the passage of the Refugee Convention, a well-founded, organized
00:19:28.100 ways of treating each case and assessing them. And there's a good example in Germany, you mentioned
00:19:32.800 Germany. Angela Merkel said she would assess the claims that turned out to be one and a half,
00:19:37.700 one and three quarter million asylum seekers tried to claim asylum in Germany. And every case was
00:19:43.320 addressed. And at the beginning, it was more or less 50-50. Then it became 70-30 who were being
00:19:47.680 admitted. Now it's more like 40% who are admitted, 60% who are not. And so the system can work. It
00:19:53.960 then becomes difficult, just in all transparency. There are then difficulties, and the Germans have
00:19:57.660 faced this. Difficulties in then saying, well, if you failed your asylum application, it's then,
00:20:02.160 and you're from Niger or you're from Mali, it may be hard to get them back. But nonetheless,
00:20:06.420 I think the philosophical point, and I run an agency that is the largest refugee resettlement
00:20:11.660 agency in America, we say very clearly, there should be a test. And if you pass, you should
00:20:16.760 be effectively integrated into the society that you've come to. And if you don't, then you can't
00:20:21.660 stay. And what we can point to is parts of the world that do this well. In America, it's not being
00:20:26.600 done well at the moment. If you come and claim asylum in America in February before the COVID pandemic
00:20:31.600 started, it would be three or four years before your case was actually seen in the immigration
00:20:36.000 court. So the first thing is, it's a reasonable thing for you to say, it can there be a system
00:20:40.500 that works. And my answer to that is yes, and it can evolve. So for example, 70 years ago,
00:20:45.340 if you were a woman suffering domestic violence in El Salvador, and you fled and claimed asylum,
00:20:50.820 it wouldn't have recognized your claim. Today, it can recognize your claim and your case law has
00:20:55.360 built that up. If it's okay with you, can I just deal with the other two points?
00:20:58.600 Yeah, that'd be great.
00:20:59.420 Because I think they're relevant. Look, there's a security point as well, which is to say, well,
00:21:03.140 how do you know these people are safe? Who chooses them? And we went through this in inordinate
00:21:07.060 detail, because the granting of resettlement or refugee status is important. We support,
00:21:12.900 I support, effective security vetting. The truth is, it's tougher to get into America as a refugee
00:21:18.920 than any other route, a tourist, a student, or anything else. The vetting process takes 18 to 24
00:21:25.480 months. The UN defines the most vulnerable, but then it's US agencies, US officials who do the
00:21:32.700 vetting. And I mean, some of the most tragic stories I've had are people who worked with the
00:21:38.320 US forces in Iraq or Afghanistan, who were promised that by working for the US military or diplomats,
00:21:45.860 putting themselves at risk of reprisals, we employ some of these people, they would then be given
00:21:51.120 haven. Now there are 100,000 Iraqis who are still waiting to be able to exercise that right to come
00:21:57.460 and resettle in the US. And they've been literally standing, sitting next to senior American military
00:22:05.080 diplomats, etc. And yet they're still caught up in the system. So I would say on the security front,
00:22:09.880 there is proper, there can be proper vetting. The third element, which was perhaps bigger in the
00:22:14.040 European debate than in the US debate, but it's part of the US debate is, well, hang on,
00:22:18.860 what kind of controls are there at the border? And in Europe, in 2015-16, there wasn't an entry exit
00:22:24.820 system where everyone arriving was properly docketed, properly noted, and properly registered.
00:22:30.840 Now there is everyone entering and exiting the European Union, the 27, does get properly registered
00:22:36.720 and vetted. And I think that it's, if the politics of the refugee issue goes wrong, it goes wrong on one
00:22:44.240 of those three grounds. And it's very important that those people who are willing to have a fact-based
00:22:49.520 argument on those three grounds have that fact-based argument, because I think it's a winnable
00:22:54.240 argument. And interestingly enough, actually, if you look at the latest polling in America,
00:22:58.200 it does wax and wane, but it's popped up again, the number of Americans, 60, 70% now, who are saying
00:23:02.780 they recognize that if you're a victim of war in, for example, Syria, you should be allowed to take
00:23:06.860 refuge here. It's a historic American tradition.
00:23:11.540 Yeah. Yeah. So now how do you decide whether it's wise to resettle people in a country like
00:23:18.480 America versus in a country bordering a conflict? If it's, you know, you take Turkey or Lebanon.
00:23:26.080 That's a good question. Yeah. It's not our choice. We're a refugee resettlement agency. In the end,
00:23:31.320 it's the US government who decides. But here's something that I think is really important,
00:23:34.840 where people like me and our organization, we need to do a bigger and better job. There are a lot of
00:23:39.760 myths associated with the refugee issue. One myth is that most refugees are in rich countries. And in
00:23:46.000 fact, it's completely untrue. 86% of the world's refugees are in poor and lower middle-income
00:23:50.440 countries. They are in Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey. If they're from South Sudan, they're in Uganda, Kenya,
00:23:56.580 Ethiopia. If they're from Somalia, they're in Kenya. If they're from Burma, Myanmar, they are in
00:24:03.040 Bangladesh. And the number of refugees in America or Europe is actually pretty low by comparison.
00:24:10.160 It's a myth. And it's also a myth, by the way, that they're mainly in camps. Most 60% of refugees
00:24:16.560 are in urban areas now, not in camps. And the biggest myth, in a way, the most damaging one is
00:24:21.240 that, well, look, all they need to do is survive for a few months or a few years and they go home.
00:24:25.540 The truth is less than 3% of the world's refugees went home last year because the wars keep burning.
00:24:31.140 And you just say the list, Afghanistan, Somalia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Syria now in its
00:24:38.500 10th year. And the figures are disputed and the figures are not great. But we're talking about
00:24:44.120 multi-generational displacement of a kind that we've never known. Because while the world has
00:24:50.820 a history of wars between states, what we're suffering from at the moment is wars within
00:24:55.060 states, civil wars. I mean, depending on how you classify the India-China standoff at the moment,
00:25:00.420 there are no hot wars between states at the moment. But there are 15, 20 countries who are
00:25:06.540 spilling out significant numbers of refugees because of implosion at home. And that is a new
00:25:13.040 phenomenon for which the tools of diplomacy that I used to be involved with for the British government
00:25:17.420 are not well suited because the record of helping peace building and peacemaking in countries of
00:25:23.980 civil war is not a good one. Yeah, it really is a circumstance where we've drawn lessons that
00:25:32.400 just can't be integrated into any political or behavioral plan. I mean, so you take Syria and
00:25:39.220 Afghanistan by turns. You know, we intervened in Afghanistan, and that's the, we being the United
00:25:47.060 States, and that is now our longest war in history. And I'm reasonably sure that once the last American
00:25:54.360 soldier leaves, we will feel that that was a pointless and ultimately, you know, masochistic exercise
00:26:02.880 in nation building. But we're also chastised for having done nothing about Syria. Although had we
00:26:12.560 gone into Syria, many would have been outraged that we hadn't learned the lesson of Afghanistan.
00:26:17.580 You really are, you know, damned if you do, damned if you don't. And mere diplomacy, you know, not sending
00:26:23.820 troops of any kind seems, in many cases, totally ineffectual. What has diplomacy done for the
00:26:31.760 Palestinian-Israeli conflict that has simmered now for at least 50 years? And many of these things,
00:26:37.920 as you know, just rage out of sight and out of minds. You take something like Yemen. I know in
00:26:43.660 the abstract that Yemen is a terrible place to be right now. I was there last year, and we've got
00:26:49.300 800 people working there. It's the world's largest, 24 million people in humanitarian need. And so you're
00:26:54.720 right to raise it as a terrible failure of diplomacy, as well as a military strategy, misbegotten military
00:27:00.840 strategy. So what could we do? And so given our experience in Afghanistan and elsewhere, given our
00:27:06.920 experience of avoiding conflict in Syria, and we had Obama's, you know, red line, which Assad quickly crossed,
00:27:16.260 revealing us to be some kind of paper tiger, or at least an exhausted superpower, what to do? I mean, if you were
00:27:23.400 in control right now, if you could just pull the levers of diplomacy, or military intervention, or,
00:27:30.100 you know, strong-arming our allies and adversaries, you take the Saudis' involvement in Yemen, what do you
00:27:40.020 think the U.S. should do, or the U.S. should attempt to get its allies to collaborate on?
00:27:45.720 Mm-hmm. Well, look, it's an important and a good question. And the first thing to recognize is that
00:27:52.100 there are different cases. From Afghanistan, America faced a threat to its own homeland. Syria
00:27:59.080 doesn't represent that. And Yemen represents a, the meltdown of Yemen represents a threat to an
00:28:05.200 American ally, although there is now a debate in America about the extent to which Saudi Arabia should
00:28:09.900 be seen as an ally. So I want to say that I recognize the differences. But I want to also try and say that
00:28:15.780 there are some common elements. And I don't want to sound glib, because these are very, very difficult
00:28:20.300 issues. But I think there are some common elements of learning that we can say. The first is that without
00:28:27.240 a clear view of the political settlement in a country, the political compromises between different
00:28:33.980 religious or ethnic or geographic groups, without a vision of the political settlement,
00:28:39.900 no military strategy, no development strategy, no diplomatic strategy will work. That's a common
00:28:45.440 lesson from all of the conflicts that you have mentioned. And you can add Iraq to that. That
00:28:51.700 essentially civil war is the failure of politics by other means. It's not the continuation of politics,
00:28:58.800 as Klaus Witz said. It's the failure of politics. And it's the failure to build political institutions
00:29:04.380 that can forge compromise and share spoils. So that's, I think, the first warning. The second
00:29:13.200 point is that unless you are willing to put assets in play, and they don't have to be military assets,
00:29:19.300 they could be economic assets, unless you're willing to exercise leverage, then diplomacy on its own is not
00:29:25.560 going to work. I think Frederick the Great said that diplomacy without arms is like music without
00:29:32.200 instruments. And this applies not just to military, but to economic and other political pressure. If you're not
00:29:39.300 willing, if you don't want to put pressure on Saudi Arabia in respect of Yemen, then they're not going to take any
00:29:45.200 notice of you. And so I think there's a question of priority and interest, frankly. President Trump has
00:29:54.180 inaugurated what Richard Haas of the Council on Foreign Relations calls the withdrawal doctrine, which is
00:30:00.440 essentially that you get out of everything. And you don't accept the argument that the world is
00:30:05.820 interdependent. And you assert that America can prosper through its own means, and it doesn't need to get
00:30:12.640 its hand in the mangle. So the second, I think, common element is that unless you're willing to put skin
00:30:17.740 in the game of different kinds, then it won't work. The third element of this, from the conflicts that
00:30:25.960 you mentioned, is that these civil wars, and civil conflicts, one can add others, is that unless you
00:30:33.320 think about the region, as well as about the country concerned, you're not going to be able to forge a
00:30:40.880 conclusion. I came to this studying the Afghan issue very closely. I went to Afghanistan for the first time in
00:30:47.440 2007. As it happened, I was there for the funeral of the last king of Afghanistan, Zahir Shah, July 2007.
00:30:55.620 Afghans from all across the country, and frankly, all across the world gathered, but so did the region. And it came
00:31:01.020 home to me so strongly that there could be no Afghan settlement without a regional settlement. And frankly, that
00:31:07.460 applies in other parts of the world as well. So the diplomacy is not just bilateral, nation to nation,
00:31:14.820 it's also got to include the rest of the region. Now, if you just take those first three principles
00:31:19.340 and start applying them, actually, American power works. I mean, if you listen, if you think about
00:31:23.160 Yemen, the world's largest humanitarian crisis, Bruce Rydell, Brookings Institution, formerly an American
00:31:28.500 government, outstanding scholar of the Yemen catastrophe, he says, look, if America put down
00:31:35.060 its foot and said to Saudi Arabia, you must stop this war tomorrow, because it's a misbegotten military
00:31:40.820 strategy that is actually strengthening Iran, not weakening it, it's creating space for al-Qaeda rather
00:31:46.160 than reducing it. And America was willing to put its assets on the line to ensure that happened, Bruce
00:31:51.960 Rydell will tell you, it would happen tomorrow. And I don't want to oversimplify this, because stopping the
00:31:57.180 fighting is not just a matter of what the Saudis do in Yemen, it's also a matter of what the Houthis
00:32:00.460 do, and the Houthis are backed by the Iranians. But the strategy of the Saudi-led coalition, which I'm
00:32:04.880 sorry to say the US and the UK are signed up to, is a misbegotten military strategy. And there's a
00:32:11.060 danger that America underestimates its power and mislearns the lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq, which I
00:32:17.740 think are painful, incredibly painful, not, I wouldn't say pointless, you said that we'll look back on
00:32:23.440 Afghanistan as pointless. If you're an Afghan, you wouldn't say it was pointless. But I know what
00:32:26.940 you're saying, the price has been very, very high indeed. But I think...
00:32:30.220 Well, I guess I would add to the picture of pointlessness, the prospect that in the end,
00:32:37.180 wherever we recognize the end to be, we may just see a resurgence of the Taliban and a return to
00:32:44.320 something like the status quo circa 2000.
00:32:48.860 You may, and many Afghans would fear that, especially female Afghans. But the American
00:32:54.960 national interest would say the big question is not ended by the question of the Taliban. The big
00:33:01.920 question for America's strategic interest is whether Afghanistan is a source of threat to the
00:33:07.420 wider world by providing a haven for al-Qaeda or others. But I mean, I take your point about the
00:33:15.320 progress, but it didn't start as a nation building, quote unquote, nation building process. But my point
00:33:20.820 in answer to your question is that we need to create a new kind of diplomacy. I mean, I was the
00:33:26.840 Secretary of State in the UK. Diplomacy was in a transitional period, because this question of the
00:33:33.640 civil wars that were threats to regional peace and security was emerging because of the failings in
00:33:38.160 Iraq and Afghanistan. And what we face now is a true crisis of diplomacy. It's not just that wars
00:33:44.720 are continuing. We are living through what I call an age of impunity. And I get, I'm sorry, I apologize.
00:33:51.140 I don't know if I need to apologize, but I get passionate about this because literally,
00:33:56.000 international rescue community staff running an ambulance in northwest Afghanistan get bombed
00:34:01.580 by their own government and by the Russians. That is the age of impunity. The fact that
00:34:07.780 70% of people who die in war today are civilians in urban areas is the age of impunity. The fact that
00:34:16.880 aid workers are killed in higher numbers is the age of impunity. The fact that military commanders in
00:34:22.520 Yemen, where a coachload of children were bombed by the Saudi-led coalition in Syria, never mind what
00:34:28.940 non-state organization, the fact that military commanders think they can get away with anything
00:34:35.680 means they do everything. They do everything beyond the limits that we thought we'd established after
00:34:41.620 the Second World War. Chemical weapons, they get used. Bombing of civilians, that gets used. Cluster
00:34:46.440 munitions, that gets used. That is the age of impunity. And my point is that the retreat of
00:34:53.260 countries like the US for all of the failings, for all of the mistakes, for all of the dangers of
00:34:59.200 thinking in an American-centric or Euro-centric way, when countries that formally are committed to human
00:35:08.060 rights and to the accountability of power, when they retreat from the global stage, and remember,
00:35:13.360 my own country is in retreat as well, exemplified by Brexit. When those countries retreat, for all their
00:35:20.140 failings, the bar for the legitimate exercise of power goes down, and the tendency for power to be
00:35:28.500 abused goes up. And that's what we're seeing in the war zones, the conflict zones around the world,
00:35:36.080 both in ungoverned space and in governed space. Ungoverned where non-state actors are in control,
00:35:41.920 governed where state actors who are formally meant to be committed to international treaties are concerned.
00:35:46.980 So I think that your question about what's the right lesson of the traumas of the last 20 years
00:35:53.680 of foreign policy is incredibly important in a world where there are growing numbers of these
00:35:58.340 unstable states, producing growing numbers of refugees who are in miserable conditions in too
00:36:04.140 many circumstances themselves, and for whom the international aid system is at the moment a
00:36:10.160 sticking plaster. Okay, so let's linger on this skepticism about the wisdom or pragmatism of worrying about the
00:36:20.280 rest of the world in the first place. So you have this retreat to nationalism, populism, and a kind of
00:36:29.560 radical selfishness that is on one level understandable, because again, we rarely see the evidence of great
00:36:39.420 success for all of our misadventures out in the world. And, you know, I mean, we have historical
00:36:45.400 successes. We look back at the resolution of World War II, and we see that what we did in Germany and
00:36:52.480 Japan in the aftermath, well, these are now allies, and, you know, we're not dealing with mortal enemies
00:36:58.260 anymore. These are some of our closest allies. So clearly, it's possible to rectify even the worst
00:37:06.200 schism diplomatically in the end, even in the aftermath of the worst possible war. But there's
00:37:13.160 not much evidence of that, at least in popular consciousness of late. And just take the American
00:37:19.680 case, and I'm sure it's somewhat similar under the shadow of Brexit in the UK. But in America,
00:37:26.040 you know, you look around at our own failing infrastructure, you look at the crisis of homelessness
00:37:32.380 in major cities. And it's easy to draw the lesson, we can't even put our own house in order. And we are
00:37:40.860 hemorrhaging jobs and economic prospects. Again, we'll turn the conversation toward the pandemic and
00:37:49.240 all of its knock-on effects soon. But I could see that somebody in a Trumpian frame of mind could
00:37:55.600 say, well, all of those crises, as tragic as they are, are far away. And, you know, I know I'm being
00:38:03.440 told a story that the world is interconnected. But what I find most galling is that the potholes in
00:38:09.960 my own roads, and the homeless people on my own doorstep, that those problems can't even be solved,
00:38:16.080 apparently, by the exercise of government and by, you know, my paying my taxes year after year.
00:38:23.380 There's just a general message of hopelessness and ineffectuality, the zero-sum marshalling of
00:38:31.920 resources, where it's just, there's just not enough money or attention to go around. So why pay
00:38:37.180 attention to any of this? Why isn't the Trumpian retreat to the Citadel both politically, we understand
00:38:45.000 it's politically pragmatic to anyone who's thinking along these lines, but why isn't it actually
00:38:49.820 a plausible path toward at least American and first world prosperity?
00:38:58.360 Well, let's not call it a Trumpian point. Let's call it a good point. It's a good point to say,
00:39:02.760 if America can't, America should be able to fix its potholes, and it should be able to fix its
00:39:07.800 education system, and it should be able to fix its immigration system. Now, those are good,
00:39:12.440 perfectly sensible points. And I think the way to address them is as follows, or at least discuss
00:39:19.180 them is as follows, beyond saying that those are rightful frustrations, to put it mildly.
00:39:24.940 The first is that tending to the international front does not preclude tending to the home front.
00:39:33.740 The diplomacy doesn't take away from the home front. And frankly, the sums of money involved
00:39:38.060 are also limited. The sums of money in respect of overseas aid are very small. 0.17% of US
00:39:45.200 national income goes on overseas aid.
00:39:49.260 Actually, I just want to just flag a fascinating poll result. I don't know if this is done year
00:39:54.060 after year, but I know it's been done. Well, you ask people whether we give too much money to foreign
00:39:59.780 aid or not. And most people, I forget the actual numbers here, you might know them, but most people
00:40:05.180 in the US think we give too much to foreign aid. But when asked how much we should give,
00:40:11.460 they put the number at something like 4%, which is, you know, 10x what we actually give.
00:40:17.380 Yes. And also, they think the current level is 25% or very high. So look, the demand to fix the home
00:40:25.300 front is a rightful one. But point one, that doesn't preclude you from working internationally.
00:40:31.900 Secondly, you use the phrase retreat to the citadel, which is a great phrase, the Israeli author Yuval
00:40:37.720 Harari talks about a dystopian future of a quote, unquote, network of fortresses. And it's dystopian
00:40:44.440 because it doesn't work. The blessings of the global economy, global innovation, mean that a future
00:40:52.620 of a network of fortresses is not going to deliver anything that people have come to expect or hope
00:41:01.440 for. That's the reality of the global economy and society. And that's why the pandemic does provide
00:41:08.500 an absolutely critical point of rupture. If the lesson of the pandemic is that a connected world is
00:41:17.820 dangerous, then we're going to have de-globalization retreat from connection, and I'm afraid not actually
00:41:23.580 tackle the problem. If the diagnosis of the pandemic is that globalization has been mismanaged,
00:41:28.920 that actually we need a stronger World Health Organization, not a weaker one, that if you're
00:41:33.000 worried about Chinese influence in the World Health Organization, the worst possible thing to do is
00:41:37.260 to pull out from the American point of view. So the second part of the answer, I think, is to
00:41:44.520 make the case that the world is more interdependent than when John Kennedy proclaimed a declaration of
00:41:51.440 interdependence on Independence Day 1962. He went to Philadelphia and he said, my fellow Americans,
00:41:58.340 we're living in an interdependent world and we need a declaration of interdependence. And it's even
00:42:02.880 more the case today, whether you think about the supply chains that allow the economy to proceed,
00:42:08.240 never mind the innovations, for example, on the vaccine that need to be globally spread.
00:42:14.520 There probably is a third part to this, though, which is important, which is to really recognize
00:42:19.280 that the renewal of fragile and failing states around the world is primarily the responsibility
00:42:24.080 of people who live there. And it's important not to have hubris about the role of international
00:42:29.480 engagement. But it's equally or even in some ways more dangerous not to recognize
00:42:34.160 that the retreat from from global engagement doesn't mean that other people aren't there.
00:42:39.160 I mean, if America retreats, that doesn't mean the Russians are going to retreat or the Chinese
00:42:42.960 are going to retreat. In fact, the evidence of the last six months is that China thinks that
00:42:47.760 American retreat creates circumstances for it to expand its footprint. And so I think there is a
00:42:53.280 global security aspect that doesn't have the short term resolution of fixing a pothole,
00:43:01.600 but does speak to the kind of strategic, patient, global engagement that is essential
00:43:08.080 to the prosperity and security of a country like this. And that's a political argument that has
00:43:12.760 run for 200 years in this country. I'm very conscious of that. And I wouldn't teach American
00:43:16.780 politicians how to win it, not least because we lost it in my own country. But I think that it is
00:43:21.560 striking to me that the European Union is defying the predictions that it was going to
00:43:26.800 crumble under the weight of COVID. And for medium sized countries, the case for global engagement
00:43:34.800 is overwhelmingly strong. I think that the case that has to be made here is obviously different
00:43:39.060 because this is a superpower. And it's one of only two real superpowers in the world. And it's a harder
00:43:44.100 argument. But I think that if you if you want to think about American prosperity and security,
00:43:48.600 it's intimately linked, not just to its neighbors to the south and to the north, because by virtue of
00:43:53.280 geography, you're a long way from some of the world's trouble spots. But if we've learned anything
00:43:57.240 in the last six months, it's that the world is actually smaller, not more disconnected than people
00:44:03.200 say. Yeah, well, you mentioned Harari and a point he makes a lot, which, you know, it's very simple,
00:44:10.500 it's almost an aphorism, but it does seem like a very good heuristic for thinking about this.
00:44:15.960 He says that there are global problems, which only admit of global solutions. There's no single
00:44:24.540 nation that can solve the problem of climate change, or a truly adequate pandemic response.
00:44:32.300 And either there are many things in the end that will be added to that list of threats, which is some
00:44:37.840 of which are, you know, existential threats. I mean, there are developments in technology,
00:44:41.980 which could spell the end of us, for which we're currently in an arms race condition. I mean,
00:44:48.080 you know, whether it's AI or genetic engineering, nanotechnology, any one of these things could
00:44:54.200 get away from us, even under the best conditions of success. And if we merely have an arms race,
00:45:00.340 and are not collaborating globally around some understanding of the shared risks, the very
00:45:06.280 future of the species seems to be in question.
00:45:08.780 Look, I think that's a great point. And it obviously has a climate dimension. But here's
00:45:12.500 an interesting thing. I was in Beijing last November, and quite a senior person said to me,
00:45:17.240 look, I'm really worried about cyber warfare directed at nuclear power plants. And do you think
00:45:25.440 that this is something that China and the West could collaborate on? And the fact that they're
00:45:31.380 thinking about it is a good thing. The fact that they're worried about whether or not the West would
00:45:35.180 talk to them and collaborate on it is a bad thing, because it speaks to a kind of myopia that has
00:45:41.220 gripped our countries that is dangerous.
00:45:43.920 So now, where do you come down on collaborating with governments whose human rights records are
00:45:52.400 objectively worse than ours, perhaps not worse than ours have ever been in our history, but worse than
00:45:58.880 ours are now. And I mean, we've mentioned the Saudis, we mentioned China, it's often seen as a moral
00:46:07.060 failing not to issue ultimatums, you know, where one can. But whatever the other topics of conversation,
00:46:15.040 if you're talking to the Saudis, and you're not admonishing them about their, you know, treatment of
00:46:21.160 women or apostates, or, you know, any other minority who fares terribly under that theocracy,
00:46:29.480 if you're talking to China, and you're not belaboring the point about, you know, their concentration camps
00:46:35.480 now for the Uyghurs, and yet, those are the very points which might cause conversation on any other
00:46:43.240 topic to totally break down. How would you recommend governments and individual politicians
00:46:50.560 navigate those?
00:46:52.520 Well, to answer your question directly, should we be collaborating, which was the word you used,
00:46:57.980 with governments that are repressing human rights? The answer is, we should certainly not be
00:47:03.520 collaborating in the repression of human rights. Collaboration means egging on, supporting.
00:47:09.520 You know, I mean, I mean, on other fronts, yeah.
00:47:11.500 So, but I think it's important to start with that, that to collaborate in something is to
00:47:17.020 help it happen. Secondly, I think that it's really important that if we don't, if we're not
00:47:25.600 willing to defend our own values, and speak to our own values, which is the most basic defense of them,
00:47:30.560 then what use are they? And so if the first point is that there shouldn't, you shouldn't be
00:47:36.340 collaborating in the repression of human rights, the second point is, should you be speaking up
00:47:41.000 about it? My answer to that would be yes. I mean, I spent three years as foreign minister.
00:47:45.640 And I think that you, when you go to China, they don't respect you, if you don't raise
00:47:51.820 difficult issues, that they will not respect you, they know what's on your mind. And maybe more ways
00:47:59.520 than one, but the, they, they, they, they've scanned your phone. Yeah.
00:48:03.740 But the, so, so if you don't have the self-respect to speak up for what you think, that I think
00:48:11.020 betokens weakness, and you can guarantee you'll get nowhere. Thirdly, you use the word ultimatums,
00:48:16.580 and the truth about ultimatums is twofold. One, you should never use an ultimatum unless you're
00:48:21.620 willing to follow through. And secondly, you shouldn't overuse ultimatums, because if you throw
00:48:25.580 around too many ultimatums, you'll be shown to be not just a broken record, but actually a hollow
00:48:30.440 shell. So you have to choose your ground. The fourth thing that I think is incredibly important
00:48:35.620 is that in dealing with powerful autocrats, nevermind, leave aside the less powerful one,
00:48:44.140 because that makes it too easy. If you're dealing with powerful autocrats, powerful autocratic
00:48:47.920 regimes, then take them on your own.
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