Zeynep Tufekci was one of the earliest people to sound the alarm about the COVID pandemic, and as a non-medical professional, she was among the first to point out that the CDC and WHO were making obvious errors in their messaging. She s published a lot during the pandemic and has also been very incisive about political polarization and the machinations of Trump. She has an intellectual toolkit that seems perfectly designed for the moment we re living in. And in this episode, we cover many intersecting issues here, related to the problems of misinformation and groupthink, the early failures of journalists and public health professionals to make sense of it, the sociology of mask-wearing, the problem of correcting institutional errors, asymmetric information warfare, the failures of messaging around vaccines, the paradox of scientific authority, the power of incentives, the prospects of reforming social media, and other topics. We don t run ads on the podcast, and therefore, therefore, are made possible entirely through the support of our listeners.As always, I never want money to be the reason why someone can t get access to the podcast. If you can t afford a subscription, there s an option at Samharris.org to request a free account, and we grant 100% of those requests, no questions asked. No questions asked! Thanks to the listeners who support the podcast by becoming a supporter, we re making it possible for you to enjoy what we re doing here! . Sam Harris: - The Making Sense Podcast is a podcast that makes sense of what we're doing here, and helps us all of us make sense. of the world. - Sam Harris and the podcast is making sense of it all, so you can be a good friend of the podcast Thank you for being a friend of Making Sense: the podcast? Sarah: - Thank you, Sarah, I m not sure what better place to start a podcast about it? - Thanks for listening, and I hope you re having a good time listening to this podcast. Sarah:) - Sarah, let me know what you think of this episode? , and I ll be back next week with a new episode on the next episode of the next one, coming soon! - Sarah and I will be talking about pandemic epidemiology, right here at The New York Times - - and I'm looking forward to talking about it!
00:33:19.980And we should step back for a second and acknowledge that this problem is much bigger than the pandemic.
00:33:27.340I want us to discuss whatever is useful to discuss at this moment about COVID, but there's much more to this moment than that.
00:33:37.380I mean, we have, it seems like we've been living through a dress rehearsal for something far worse on, on at least two fronts.
00:33:46.020There's the global health front, and so we have a pandemic here, which just by sheer accident, isn't 10 times worse than it is, right?
00:33:55.680I mean, you know, COVID could be killing 10% of people, and we would, we now know how we would perform under those conditions.
00:34:03.860And it would be, you know, to watch our society unravel.
00:34:07.820I would love your take on why we have failed so catastrophically to actually get a handle on what is compared to the real possibilities out there, you know, both man-made and natural, a fairly benign disease, right?
00:34:24.740So there's the global health challenge that we have not exactly risen to.
00:34:28.620But then there's this, you know, riding alongside it or on top of it or beneath it, there's the political instability that we've lived through and the rise of Trumpism and that, you know, complete derangement of our politics, which you also have weighed in on quite usefully.
00:34:46.260And many of your intuitions here have been informed by your experience being Turkish and knowing what it's like to live through coups and coup attempts.
00:34:55.760And so you've seen the writing on the wall in that sense, too.
00:35:00.820And so the bigger problem is one of misinformation and information siloing.
00:35:06.920And just the fact that there's, given that we're, largely this is a story of what the Internet is doing to the human mind.
00:35:14.120I mean, we have access to so much information, but simultaneously we have, the gatekeepers of information have lost the trust.
00:35:24.960Much of, you know, much of society, in many cases for good reason.
00:35:28.600I mean, you just pointed to the case where it took you, a non-expert, to push back against, you know, CDC guidance.
00:35:37.600And so, you know, we find out we can't trust the CDC on so basic a point as whether or not people should be wearing masks in the middle of an airborne pandemic.
00:35:47.780So trust in public institutions has eroded.
00:35:52.280And so now we're left with a situation where everyone's got a supercomputer in their pocket with access to the totality of human information, which is probably doubling at this point, I don't know, every year.
00:36:05.800And we have this kind of stalemate where, you know, one person's groupthink is another person's expert consensus.
00:36:17.580There's no place to stand where you have authority or perceived authority to rectify the obvious reasoning errors of vast segments of our population.
00:36:29.860Take your pick. We could talk about QAnon or the anti-vax movement or prominent people in our society likening COVID to the flu or the craziness is everywhere.
00:36:42.060And it's very hard when you have a breakdown of authority and even integrity in major institutions, whether it's the CDC or scientific journals like Nature and Science and the New England Journal of Medicine.
00:36:55.300I mean, it's just all of this has gotten so contaminated by politics on both the left and the right that it is really quite deranging.
00:37:02.640So I think we should step back for a second and talk about the role that misinformation and social media and any other variable here bringing this confusion to scale is playing on multiple fronts here.
00:37:18.300Then we can sort of dive back into anything that you think is useful to say about COVID at this moment.
00:37:23.220Sure. So, um, so you hit upon like, that's exactly what we mean when everything I've been interested in kind of came to be at this year.
00:37:33.900So to begin with, I, I, I'm on the record calling this a starter pandemic.
00:37:39.060That's not to like make light of the existing tragedy, but like it could have had the fatality rate of something much worse.
00:37:48.940Right. And, uh, there's no reason that it couldn't have been terrible in ways that, that we can't even imagine right now.
00:37:57.540It could have been killing a lot more people.
00:38:02.800Mercifully, largely sparing children from severe illness or deaths.
00:38:07.260The outcomes are like, so it could have been just sort of devastating all the children.
00:38:11.060And, uh, I mean, every death is tragic, but it could have been in something like that is a different kind of situation.
00:38:18.060Uh, it could have been killing 30% of the victims.
00:38:21.360We might not have had vaccines in nine months.
00:38:24.560There's so many things that could be so much worse about this, you know, the starter pandemic we have.
00:38:31.240And I mean, this part, it's already tragic, but.
00:38:35.060So that's something that I think about a lot.
00:38:37.660And the other thing is, I mean, then this is something I think about all the time is that,
00:38:43.200you know, yes, I've criticized the CDC and the World Health Organization on this basic point.
00:38:48.540But on the other hand, of course, like overall, they are right.
00:38:52.980Like if you are just sort of thinking about, like, who do I believe?
00:38:56.960You're always going to choose the CDC.
00:38:58.800You're always going to choose the World Health Organization compared to the, you know, rampant misinformation out there.
00:39:05.560So even if they have hiccups and get something wrong, they're like, you know, they're full of actual experts and, you know, they're did whatever their failings.
00:39:14.860And look at like the vaccines and the scientific edifice that can deliver this kind of vaccine with this speed.
00:39:22.680And yet, and yet, and yet, we're losing the argument to QAnon, right?
00:39:28.520I mean, we have all this, like I was just sort of talking, I think, in another interview.
00:39:34.900And I'm just kind of like amazed at how little we're doing with what we have because we haven't figured out how to make these institutions earn public trust the right way.
00:39:47.500Like, because all the, you know, mistakes they make and the sort of communication errors kind of weaken them.
00:39:53.660But in reality, I'm just thinking like, you know, clinical medicine has all sorts of things I can criticize about everything from the equity to the way they listen to the, they don't listen to the patients to, they are still in a mind body dualism.
00:40:08.600As far as like, I'm concerned, they have these.
00:40:12.260On the other hand, if my 11-year-old gets strep throat, the only thing I'm thinking, well, not this year, but previously would have been, oh, he can't go to school for a day.
00:40:25.720Whereas like just, you know, if it was 1930s, I'd be thinking, am I planning a funeral, right?
00:40:32.260Like within basically a couple of generations, we've made so much amazing progress.
00:40:38.720And as you point out, and we have supercomputers in our pockets and all of that, and yet we're failing and we're losing the arguments to, like people we should not be losing these arguments to because we're mismanaging it.
00:40:55.300You know, people like Donald Trump are managing to convince enough people and get elected.
00:40:59.740And then also managed to convince enough people that the election was stolen from them and, you know, all the things that came from that lie.
00:41:07.780We're like, I met a, I volunteer at a vaccine clinic and the, it's amazing.
00:41:16.080Like we're giving all these elderly people the first shots, but there's no phone capacity to call them for reminders in three to four weeks because the phones are overloaded and over, you know, they're just no.
00:41:30.320And I, and some of these people were, they're just, we're just sending them on with a piece of paper.
00:41:34.880I, you know, 80 year old, 90 year old people and just hoping they show back up.
00:41:43.480Like, how could we have these amazing vaccines with these results and not have the phone capacity to make sure that we give them a call back to remind them, you know, your appointments tomorrow.
00:42:13.420That's amazing, but it doesn't listen to patients all the time and loses trust.
00:42:17.120We have, you know, a democracy and we're electing Donald Trump and then nobody's standing up.
00:42:23.820So I, I'm not like, it's a transition and even though the technology that's feeling this, the social media technology is kind of amazing in some ways.
00:42:36.420And this is something like, this was our last conversation.
00:42:49.800Like there was, there was like, there was a couple of, you know, the 30 year wars and this and that, and then two global wars and World War I and World War II and near annihilation.
00:43:01.140And we came to our senses a little late on that.
00:43:04.460On the other hand, like I'm sort of going to go from, like, it didn't just, yeah, go from printing press to Encyclopedia Britannica.
00:43:11.260It was a lot of upheaval, but on the other, other hand, like after 1945, after World War II, if you wanted to sort of, if you're taking bets, you'd be like in 20 years, Germany is going to attack somebody again, probably France, because that had, that was pretty much what had happened for hundreds of years.
00:43:30.800But for a bunch of complicated, lengthy reasons, Europe was scared enough and U.S. was scared enough to build institutions to make sure that never happened.
00:43:44.460And in 20, 30 years, instead of having, you know, one more Germany attacks France story, which is like, if you were a Bayesian, that's what you would have said was about to happen again.
00:43:54.420We got, you know, a single currency there as soon thereafter, we got borderless travel.
00:43:59.400I mean, I'm not saying the European Union is the perfect, but we haven't had another Germany, France war.
00:44:06.740Like the continent is not in pieces again.
00:44:10.200So it's like we can fix things when and if we fix the institutional part of it.
00:44:17.460Part of the problem here, though, is that because there's been such a breakdown in trust and institutions, many people doubt whether we need institutions.
00:44:27.800Institutions themselves are in disrepute.
00:44:30.100And I mean, even, I mean, you and I are visibly part of this trend.
00:44:34.780I mean, I mean, you probably less so than that I am.
00:44:38.000But, you know, I'm you and I are speaking on my podcast, which I have taken great pains to divorce from any kind of institutional pressure because of the kind of intellectual freedom I want to have here.
00:44:50.780You know, I have actually consciously worked now for years to make myself uncancellable.
00:44:57.360And, you know, you you write for The Atlantic and The New York Times, but you also have a Substack email, which I certainly recommend people subscribe to.
00:45:06.800You're part of a trend there that many very celebrated journalists have jumped entirely to Substack because the institutions have proved to be so vulnerable to bizarrely.
00:45:18.680So I mean, this shouldn't be the case, but, you know, you can get something with a few hundred retweets on Twitter, which brings The New York Times to its knees, at least, you know, behind closed doors.
00:45:30.040They're treating it like it's an absolute emergency and looking for who to fire next.
00:45:36.580And so standing outside of all this, you know, we have obviously the people who have been taken in by one or another crazy confabulation like QAnon and, you know, the larger subset of Trumpist preoccupation around that.
00:45:50.320But on the far left, there are analogs of this.
00:45:54.140And if there's a consensus about anything right now, it seems to be that the experts can't be trusted to the point where expertise itself isn't even a thing anymore.
00:46:05.340Right. It's like we don't we don't need experts for anything.
00:46:09.800The people most worth listening to are simply the people who will say the most provocative thing that proves to be most shareable.
00:46:18.200And, you know, unhelpfully for any kind of course correction back to normalcy here, we have one vivid example after the next of people like yourself.
00:46:27.500And, you know, and there are many other people I could name in this mode who obviously have one foot in institutions and the normal culture of expertise or even both feet there, but occasionally have to step outside of all of that and point out that the institutions, you know, are most prestigious institutions are failing to a degree that is actually just jaw dropping.
00:46:54.460Right. And this is I mean, I'll just add to you one other data point here on the kind of the other side of this, which is I'm sure you saw this at one point.
00:47:06.360But when we were having all of the the social protests around the murder of George Floyd and the BLM protests that in certain cases devolved into riots and all of that happening on the left,
00:47:19.420you know, there were open letters signed by literally thousands of doctors and public health professionals in support of these protests as though they posed absolutely no epidemiological concern.
00:47:35.120Right. Like this is necessary. This is good. All of the right wing protests against lockdown were murderously irresponsible.
00:47:42.760Right. They had castigated the right over, you know, gathering on mass in public.
00:47:48.160But then we had protests from the left that were aligned with, you know, the political priors of, you know, most people in journalism and most people in academia,
00:47:57.840which were an order of magnitude larger. And from a, you know, apart from, you know, some more mask wearing definitely looked riskier than anything that was happening on the right.
00:48:09.460And yet there was not only silence around this, there was absolute support from public health people.
00:48:16.420And, you know, obviously this got noticed by everyone right of center as not just an instance of black comedy level hypocrisy,
00:48:24.980but it was just a complete breakdown of a commitment to spreading valid public health information, which.
00:48:32.820And so people, you know, the people who were, who were, who were resisting wearing masks at that point took notice and said,
00:48:39.780all right, we can't trust anything you people say. It's all about politics. You've just proved that yet again.
00:48:46.120And it's, you can almost hold your breath until the next moment where the worst fears and the most cynical assumptions of any one of these siloed groups of confabulists get confirmed by our institutions at this point.
00:49:02.280I mean, the most responsible people behave absolutely irresponsibly, seemingly on command.
00:49:09.560It's very hard to find a place from which to reboot and to, to acknowledge all of these past missteps and to say,
00:49:17.280okay, now we're going to move forward with, you know, professionals in their right seats and with a, you know,
00:49:24.400renewed commitment to institutional integrity and intellectual honesty and everything else that's going to become a reliable engine of progress here.
00:49:32.280It's amazing to see, I literally, I see billionaires who are as basically as cynical about anything ever getting done ever again as QAnon lunatics.
00:49:44.760So it's, it's just a, it's a very dark picture of, you know, if we have a consensus about anything,
00:49:51.240it's that nobody knows how to move forward here.
00:49:54.760So anyway, I just vomited all of my worries on you and do with that what you will.
00:50:01.480Interesting thing is that the experts are the ones that are kneecapping themselves despite,
00:50:07.700I, I mean, every argument should be on their side.
00:50:12.200Like as we just discussed, it's like medicine has done amazing things.