Making Sense - Sam Harris - September 30, 2021


#261 — Belief & Identity


Episode Stats

Length

40 minutes

Words per Minute

154.7831

Word Count

6,231

Sentence Count

6

Misogynist Sentences

2

Hate Speech Sentences

2


Summary

In this episode, Dr. Jonas Koppel and I discuss the problem of belief change and resistance to belief change, and the work he and his co-author, Sarah Gimble, did in 2016 on the neural correlates of maintaining one's political beliefs in the face of counter evidence. This is the first installment in a larger series Jonas is doing with the Waking Up App, which focuses on the science of consciousness, identity, empathy, and social relationships. In part 1 of this conversation, Jonas and I talk about our work on the nature of belief and belief change resistance, and how it relates to the illusory truth effect and the failures of replication in this area of research. In part 2 of this series, we discuss the cognitive neuroscientist Jonas Kaplan's research on the role of consciousness and identity in shaping our sense of self, and his work on how the brain processes stories and beliefs and values. This episode is part 1 in a series of a larger conversation Jonas has been doing with me and my collaborator, Anil Seth, on the topic of identity and consciousness in the brain. We cover things like: Why do we have a collective unconscious? What does it have to do with identity? Why does it matter? How does it affect our perception of the world? What is it really about? And why is it important to have a sense of who we are? and what does it really mean and why it s important to understand it? We discuss the role in the world How can we learn from it And how it affects us? Can it help us learn and practice Is it possible to change the world ? Does it really affect us is it a problem can it be taught why it matters what it s really important how it s useful should we learn who it s good ? and so on? Is there any value does it and can it be or Can we are , and in the of & so much more? , and so much we ll . Jonas shares his thoughts on identity and how we can joins me in this conversation - and more! Join us in the Making Sense Podcast


Transcript

00:00:00.000 welcome to the making sense podcast this is sam harris just a note to say that if you're hearing
00:00:12.500 this you are not currently on our subscriber feed and will only be hearing the first part
00:00:16.900 of this conversation in order to access full episodes of the making sense podcast you'll
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00:00:32.500 therefore it's made possible entirely through the support of our subscribers so if you enjoy
00:00:36.520 what we're doing here please consider becoming one
00:00:38.840 okay well today i'm presenting a conversation on belief and identity and in particular it's
00:00:56.340 focused on the problem of belief change and resistance to belief change the significance
00:01:03.640 of which both personally and collectively is really hard to exaggerate we really are in the
00:01:11.020 belief formation maintenance and occasionally belief change business and when you look at
00:01:18.840 what it takes to get millions of us and billions of us to cooperate with one another
00:01:25.880 it really is just a matter of persuading one another to change our representations of the world and
00:01:33.980 converge on common projects and failing that we resort to forcing one another to converge and that
00:01:43.040 eventually becomes a bloody mess so belief change and its impediments is incredibly important to
00:01:51.280 understand and this is just a first volley in that effort and to do this i've enlisted my friend and
00:01:58.380 collaborator jonas kaplan who is a cognitive neuroscientist working at usc where he is an associate professor at the
00:02:06.320 brain and creativity institute this institute was founded by antonio damasio has also been on the podcast
00:02:12.420 and jonas and jonas is focused on issues related to consciousness identity empathy and social relationships
00:02:20.840 he uses functional neuroimaging mostly fmri combined with machine learning to examine the neural mechanisms
00:02:28.500 that underlie our sense of self he's also done research on how the brain processes stories and beliefs and values
00:02:36.280 and in this conversation we focus on some work that we did jointly
00:02:41.300 with fmri on the nature of belief and belief change resistance
00:02:47.680 and that work was published in 2016 along with our co-author sarah gimble
00:02:54.080 as the neural correlates of maintaining one's political beliefs in the face of counter evidence
00:02:59.660 and that was in nature's scientific reports
00:03:02.820 fun fact i just looked at this paper for the first time in years
00:03:08.120 again it was published back in 2016
00:03:11.100 and it's on nature.com
00:03:15.740 i just wanted to see the metrics around its
00:03:19.740 engagement and
00:03:22.220 it's been accessed 250,000 times
00:03:26.720 cited 71 times cross-referenced
00:03:30.920 75 times looks like
00:03:32.800 but in measures of online attention
00:03:35.520 its statistics are fairly astounding
00:03:40.280 of the 401,000 tracked articles of similar age in all journals
00:03:48.260 it's ranked 27th out of 400,000
00:03:52.140 and it is ranked first among the 5,000 plus tracked articles
00:03:57.620 of similar age in the scientific reports section of nature
00:04:02.640 so amazingly there appear to only be 26 articles
00:04:08.760 in all of science of similar age
00:04:11.800 that have received more online engagement than this article
00:04:16.360 and i say that not to boast
00:04:19.020 but to point out how bizarre and ineffectual and balkanized so much of our science is
00:04:29.640 i mean from what i can tell
00:04:31.640 the biggest engagement in the media that this article got was from Dr. Oz
00:04:40.480 who i consider a near total charlatan
00:04:44.360 in the new york observer
00:04:46.700 it was in various blogs
00:04:50.300 i can't remember what press coverage
00:04:52.700 it got beyond any of that
00:04:54.980 but anyway i don't believe i've ever met anyone
00:04:57.840 who's read this paper
00:04:58.880 and yet according to nature's website
00:05:03.300 there are only 26 scientific papers
00:05:06.340 on the planet that have received more engagement
00:05:09.840 than this article
00:05:11.180 make of that what you will
00:05:13.440 i can just say that in my world
00:05:15.800 the experience of publishing this article
00:05:17.980 was of simply dropping something into the void
00:05:21.840 but that notwithstanding
00:05:24.240 we will talk about some of the implications of this research
00:05:27.460 and this conversation is part of a larger series
00:05:30.320 i've done with jonas for the waking up app
00:05:32.480 there's a section there titled mind and brain
00:05:35.760 which is essentially its own podcast series
00:05:39.620 we've covered the science of mindfulness
00:05:42.540 social emotion
00:05:44.420 disgust
00:05:46.200 empathy
00:05:47.100 islands of awareness
00:05:49.660 touching on some of the work that Anil Seth
00:05:52.260 another podcast guest
00:05:53.940 has done on isolated consciousness in the brain
00:05:57.580 and we have forthcoming conversations on gratitude
00:06:00.940 the predictive brain
00:06:02.720 sleep and dreams
00:06:04.000 the default mode network
00:06:05.920 willpower
00:06:07.000 and there's much more to come
00:06:09.060 that's a track where we're trying to make
00:06:10.960 insights from neuroscience
00:06:12.320 as personally relevant
00:06:15.340 to one's day-to-day experience
00:06:17.820 as we can
00:06:19.060 anyway as i said
00:06:20.940 this episode focuses on belief
00:06:22.740 and belief change
00:06:25.280 and the way in which identity
00:06:26.960 poses an obstacle
00:06:28.480 to the latter
00:06:29.600 we cover things like the illusory truth effect
00:06:32.940 the backfire effect
00:06:35.080 failures of replication
00:06:36.780 in this area
00:06:38.400 we talk about an essay i once wrote
00:06:40.860 titled the fireplace delusion
00:06:42.620 we discuss the connection between reason and emotion
00:06:46.200 wishful thinking
00:06:47.760 persuasion and the sense of self
00:06:50.240 conspiracy theories
00:06:52.100 the power of incentives
00:06:53.700 in-group loyalty
00:06:55.340 religion
00:06:56.420 mindfulness
00:06:57.160 cognitive flexibility
00:06:58.580 and other topics
00:07:00.400 and again i think both of us consider this just a first installment
00:07:04.660 on what really should be a series on belief change
00:07:08.320 and its enemies
00:07:10.040 and now i bring you
00:07:11.700 jonas kaplan
00:07:12.660 i'm here with my friend jonas kaplan
00:07:22.740 jonas thanks for joining me
00:07:24.360 thanks for having me sam
00:07:25.800 so uh
00:07:27.280 you and i now go way back
00:07:29.400 as uh
00:07:30.360 father time is
00:07:31.600 meting out
00:07:32.400 blows
00:07:33.080 year by year
00:07:34.320 i've known you for at least
00:07:36.260 a decade
00:07:37.340 a decade plus
00:07:38.240 but perhaps summarize your
00:07:40.460 background as a neuroscientist
00:07:42.420 and the kinds of issues
00:07:43.220 you focus on now
00:07:44.200 sure i am a cognitive neuroscientist
00:07:47.020 and uh
00:07:47.580 i use mainly neuroimaging techniques
00:07:49.860 to study how the brain works
00:07:51.540 maybe i can list off my uh
00:07:54.320 litany of academic titles
00:07:56.780 it's like a medieval court
00:07:58.100 to give you an idea
00:07:59.580 so i'm a research professor
00:08:01.160 at the brain and creativity institute at usc
00:08:03.940 i'm the co-director of the dornsife neuroimaging center
00:08:07.760 and i'm also the associate director
00:08:09.880 for mindfulness and neuroimaging
00:08:11.460 at usc's center for mindfulness science
00:08:13.820 nice
00:08:14.380 so that gives you
00:08:14.960 some idea of what my research interests are
00:08:17.680 but i've studied a lot of different things
00:08:18.920 from ranging from belief and values
00:08:20.920 and and empathy
00:08:21.920 and how we resonate with other people
00:08:23.880 and uh
00:08:24.980 a whole bunch of other things that interest me
00:08:26.620 so now we're talking about something
00:08:29.120 that's really in our wheelhouse
00:08:30.620 because we have done
00:08:32.120 some neuroimaging studies together
00:08:34.520 on this very topic
00:08:35.400 we're talking about belief
00:08:37.000 and belief change
00:08:39.080 and resistance to belief change
00:08:41.320 why is this an important topic
00:08:43.500 it's such an important topic
00:08:45.880 you know belief flexibility
00:08:47.760 is just essential
00:08:49.960 to everything we do as a society
00:08:52.160 in so many different ways
00:08:53.220 we just need to be able to influence each other
00:08:56.020 when we have conversations
00:08:57.780 the whole point of having a conversation
00:08:59.300 is to get some information across
00:09:01.300 especially in a democracy
00:09:03.040 it's really important
00:09:03.820 that we're able to influence each other
00:09:05.100 on the basis of conversation
00:09:06.300 because if we can't
00:09:07.820 the only option available to us
00:09:10.240 is some kind of violence right
00:09:11.380 so to be able to change
00:09:13.360 as new evidence comes in
00:09:14.620 to fruitful conversations
00:09:15.800 to advance science and education
00:09:17.960 all of these things require
00:09:19.080 some amount of flexibility in our belief
00:09:21.800 it's particularly prominent for me
00:09:24.340 as a scientist
00:09:24.920 i mean this is the
00:09:25.780 the very basis of science
00:09:27.300 is some kind of assumption
00:09:28.820 that as we gather new evidence
00:09:31.120 we can update our models of the world
00:09:32.700 and our beliefs
00:09:33.260 and so if we have difficulty doing that
00:09:35.560 or if there's things in our psychology
00:09:36.840 that make it hard for us to do that
00:09:38.080 we need to know about them
00:09:39.040 yeah so we're recording at a moment
00:09:42.480 which is where these concerns
00:09:44.560 are especially salient
00:09:45.960 because we're in the middle of the
00:09:47.140 covid pandemic
00:09:48.220 and just awash in misinformation
00:09:50.900 about more or less everything
00:09:53.240 i mean there's political partisanship
00:09:55.640 of a sort that i don't think
00:09:57.400 we've ever seen in our lifetime
00:09:58.700 there are conspiracy theories
00:10:01.920 on almost every topic
00:10:03.680 of social importance
00:10:05.020 people have balkanized
00:10:07.740 into these echo chambers online
00:10:09.520 the public health messaging
00:10:11.840 during this pandemic
00:10:12.880 has been almost impossible
00:10:15.040 to get across
00:10:15.800 because every shred of
00:10:18.520 reasonable skepticism
00:10:20.940 on any point
00:10:21.920 gets amplified into
00:10:23.920 just a complete breakdown
00:10:26.660 of epistemology
00:10:27.600 where we think we know
00:10:29.340 nothing for certain
00:10:31.120 about anything of consequence
00:10:32.780 and so people can't even agree
00:10:34.860 as you get anywhere
00:10:36.920 toward the edge of
00:10:38.120 mainstream opinion
00:10:39.700 you find otherwise
00:10:42.060 intelligent people
00:10:43.420 who can't even agree
00:10:44.480 that the
00:10:46.040 in this case the pandemic
00:10:47.620 is real
00:10:48.880 in some basic sense
00:10:50.000 almost every
00:10:51.200 aspect of this
00:10:52.760 can fall
00:10:54.180 under
00:10:54.700 doubt
00:10:55.540 and
00:10:56.380 then it becomes
00:10:58.100 almost impossible
00:10:59.320 to have a conversation
00:11:00.360 about what's real
00:11:01.480 just trying to converge
00:11:03.140 on
00:11:04.240 a set of facts
00:11:05.720 that
00:11:06.180 all parties
00:11:07.420 can acknowledge
00:11:08.220 becomes an impossible task
00:11:10.160 when people start out
00:11:11.460 sufficiently far apart
00:11:12.700 and
00:11:13.340 they're being emotionally
00:11:14.700 hijacked
00:11:15.580 once any of these
00:11:17.220 conversations get started
00:11:18.440 and they're
00:11:19.520 mistaking
00:11:20.740 their emotional reaction
00:11:22.580 for further evidence
00:11:24.240 of the truth
00:11:25.420 of their beliefs
00:11:26.200 and
00:11:27.220 you can become
00:11:28.280 sensitive to this
00:11:29.800 in yourself
00:11:30.560 you know
00:11:31.380 you have certain things
00:11:32.360 you believe are true
00:11:33.300 and then you bump into
00:11:35.460 counter arguments
00:11:36.780 or counter evidence
00:11:37.820 or just you know
00:11:38.540 people who are espousing
00:11:39.660 an alternate view of reality
00:11:41.680 and
00:11:43.080 sort of depends
00:11:44.440 what we're talking about here
00:11:45.300 but in the generic case
00:11:46.500 you're either
00:11:47.480 attached to these
00:11:48.960 beliefs
00:11:49.880 because you
00:11:50.520 think they're true
00:11:51.540 or you're
00:11:52.540 perversely attached to them
00:11:53.860 because you want them
00:11:54.820 to be true
00:11:55.300 but in any case
00:11:56.180 you meet in yourself
00:11:57.280 an unwillingness
00:11:59.080 to reconsider the matter
00:12:00.980 and a
00:12:01.380 an almost visceral
00:12:02.880 feeling of
00:12:03.640 revulsion
00:12:04.740 or contempt
00:12:05.540 for people
00:12:06.320 who would push too hard
00:12:07.540 on
00:12:07.820 on a door
00:12:08.920 you're trying to keep
00:12:10.060 barred
00:12:10.620 and it's really
00:12:11.560 the only place
00:12:12.740 where we are
00:12:13.520 at all disciplined
00:12:15.040 and good
00:12:16.500 about getting
00:12:18.100 out of our own way
00:12:18.960 here
00:12:19.340 and revising
00:12:20.500 our beliefs
00:12:21.340 is in science
00:12:22.600 I mean that's
00:12:22.960 really is what
00:12:23.780 makes science
00:12:25.240 science
00:12:25.720 it's a methodology
00:12:26.660 for being
00:12:28.260 increasingly sure
00:12:29.560 that you're not
00:12:30.240 fooling yourself
00:12:31.320 and
00:12:32.100 granted
00:12:32.960 we're imperfect here
00:12:34.240 and there's a history
00:12:34.940 of scientific fraud
00:12:36.000 and scientific
00:12:37.300 ineptitude
00:12:38.600 but obviously
00:12:39.520 the remedy for that
00:12:40.800 is always more science
00:12:42.140 and better science
00:12:42.920 it's not some
00:12:43.480 alternate mode
00:12:44.520 of wish fulfillment
00:12:45.580 or you're merely
00:12:46.460 imagining
00:12:47.040 what's true
00:12:47.800 this conversation
00:12:49.220 I'm sure
00:12:50.100 will be evergreen
00:12:50.880 and you know
00:12:51.580 if you come back
00:12:52.180 in five years
00:12:52.820 this will still be
00:12:53.940 relevant
00:12:55.000 to think about
00:12:56.140 but at the moment
00:12:57.040 its relevance
00:12:58.320 is fairly excruciating
00:12:59.920 it's hard to believe
00:13:01.800 I mean when we
00:13:02.440 first
00:13:03.040 when you and I
00:13:03.540 first started working
00:13:04.320 on this issue
00:13:05.300 in neuroscience
00:13:06.000 maybe 15 years ago
00:13:07.240 or so
00:13:08.060 it was certainly not
00:13:09.020 an issue that was
00:13:09.740 on the forefront
00:13:10.260 of everyone's minds
00:13:11.260 and now it seems like
00:13:12.400 it's what everybody
00:13:13.400 wants to talk about
00:13:14.220 and you know
00:13:15.660 it is
00:13:16.060 I think one
00:13:16.940 one thing you said
00:13:17.580 there is really
00:13:18.260 important
00:13:18.680 this aspect
00:13:19.380 of trying to
00:13:20.100 recognize
00:13:20.600 this process
00:13:21.480 in ourselves
00:13:22.060 because
00:13:22.540 a lot of times
00:13:23.800 when I talk to people
00:13:24.880 the biggest question
00:13:26.360 is you know
00:13:26.660 how can I
00:13:27.200 get my aunt or uncle
00:13:28.720 to believe me
00:13:29.960 to understand
00:13:30.400 what I'm saying
00:13:30.980 and how can I
00:13:31.980 influence someone else
00:13:32.820 what's the key
00:13:33.720 to persuasion
00:13:34.700 and that is one way
00:13:36.140 of looking at the problem
00:13:37.100 but I think
00:13:38.160 it's actually
00:13:38.580 potentially more fruitful
00:13:39.740 to think about
00:13:40.580 the other way around
00:13:41.300 so instead of
00:13:42.400 how we can be
00:13:43.040 better persuaders
00:13:44.100 you know
00:13:45.000 how we can make
00:13:45.660 ourselves more
00:13:46.480 open-minded
00:13:47.080 and more
00:13:48.160 available to
00:13:49.660 evidence as it
00:13:50.420 comes in
00:13:50.880 as we recognize
00:13:51.860 the reasons why
00:13:52.940 we're not in the
00:13:53.500 first place
00:13:53.940 which is what
00:13:54.360 we're going to
00:13:54.620 talk about today
00:13:55.260 okay so let's talk
00:13:57.160 about what we know
00:13:59.140 about changing
00:14:00.200 beliefs
00:14:01.600 obviously
00:14:02.900 we learn
00:14:05.280 things about
00:14:06.080 the world
00:14:06.600 albeit
00:14:07.220 slowly
00:14:08.480 and sometimes
00:14:09.740 begrudgingly
00:14:10.520 and that
00:14:11.540 that is
00:14:12.620 synonymous
00:14:13.600 with belief
00:14:14.480 formation
00:14:15.120 in the sense
00:14:16.500 that we're
00:14:16.960 using the term
00:14:18.340 I guess
00:14:18.920 perhaps one thing
00:14:19.860 we should clarify
00:14:20.400 here is that
00:14:21.020 in its colloquial
00:14:22.780 use
00:14:23.380 people often
00:14:24.600 distinguish belief
00:14:25.820 from knowledge
00:14:26.880 in our usage
00:14:28.440 here and really
00:14:29.560 throughout
00:14:30.200 most of the
00:14:31.200 relevant fields
00:14:31.860 certainly within
00:14:32.460 philosophy
00:14:32.960 and I think
00:14:35.100 within cognitive
00:14:36.640 science
00:14:37.220 generally
00:14:37.940 that's not really
00:14:39.280 the point of
00:14:40.540 separation
00:14:41.040 I mean you can
00:14:41.680 believe things
00:14:42.800 with greater
00:14:43.540 or lesser
00:14:44.940 conviction
00:14:45.780 it's really
00:14:46.960 like
00:14:47.160 it's a
00:14:47.880 probability
00:14:48.920 distribution
00:14:49.520 of knowledge
00:14:50.260 we're talking
00:14:50.740 about
00:14:50.960 there are things
00:14:51.460 that you are
00:14:52.080 absolutely
00:14:53.140 certain of
00:14:53.900 you would
00:14:54.220 bet your
00:14:54.840 life on
00:14:55.460 there are things
00:14:56.700 that you think
00:14:57.260 are very likely
00:14:58.440 to be true
00:14:59.020 you still count
00:14:59.720 them as knowledge
00:15:00.360 but you know
00:15:00.880 until you hear
00:15:01.340 otherwise
00:15:01.680 you'll think
00:15:02.400 this is
00:15:02.840 probably the way
00:15:04.080 things are
00:15:04.560 but you're
00:15:05.040 you wouldn't
00:15:05.920 bet everything
00:15:07.060 on it
00:15:07.520 and then there
00:15:08.140 are gradations
00:15:09.260 below that
00:15:09.900 where you
00:15:10.340 think
00:15:11.060 the preponderance
00:15:12.260 of evidence
00:15:12.800 and argument
00:15:13.280 is pointed
00:15:13.840 in one direction
00:15:14.660 you're certainly
00:15:15.840 weighted that way
00:15:17.240 but you don't
00:15:18.060 really think
00:15:18.840 you have
00:15:20.180 a complete
00:15:21.140 picture of
00:15:21.820 that part
00:15:22.860 of reality
00:15:23.420 in hand
00:15:24.040 and all of
00:15:25.020 this is a
00:15:25.420 matter of
00:15:26.080 belief
00:15:27.080 to one or
00:15:27.740 another degree
00:15:28.400 in the sense
00:15:29.620 that we're
00:15:29.840 using the term
00:15:30.440 that's right
00:15:31.920 we're not going
00:15:32.340 to distinguish
00:15:32.720 there
00:15:33.080 we're going
00:15:33.360 to treat
00:15:33.840 belief
00:15:34.200 as basically
00:15:35.180 anything
00:15:35.540 you hold
00:15:36.140 true
00:15:36.580 about the
00:15:37.080 world
00:15:37.340 and you
00:15:38.780 know
00:15:38.880 you mentioned
00:15:39.360 the process
00:15:39.900 of how
00:15:40.240 we form
00:15:40.940 beliefs
00:15:41.340 I think
00:15:41.700 that's
00:15:42.000 an interesting
00:15:42.760 topic
00:15:43.300 how we
00:15:43.700 gain
00:15:44.000 knowledge
00:15:44.380 and how
00:15:44.640 we develop
00:15:45.120 our kind
00:15:45.620 of initial
00:15:46.080 models
00:15:46.980 of the
00:15:47.560 world
00:15:47.860 and we're
00:15:48.960 not going
00:15:49.160 to get
00:15:49.300 too deeply
00:15:49.760 into that
00:15:50.180 I think
00:15:50.440 we're going
00:15:50.660 to sort
00:15:51.220 of bypass
00:15:51.620 that issue
00:15:52.300 and just
00:15:52.960 start from
00:15:53.800 the point
00:15:54.160 at which
00:15:54.460 we have
00:15:54.740 formed
00:15:55.080 some belief
00:15:55.580 we've
00:15:55.780 accepted
00:15:56.180 some piece
00:15:56.720 of information
00:15:57.280 as true
00:15:57.820 and then
00:15:58.820 what happens
00:15:59.380 let's say
00:15:59.920 we encounter
00:16:00.460 a new piece
00:16:01.040 of information
00:16:01.580 that contradicts
00:16:02.380 the old one
00:16:02.860 how do we
00:16:03.500 revise our
00:16:04.120 beliefs
00:16:04.440 because
00:16:04.760 this really
00:16:05.720 is the
00:16:06.040 biggest challenge
00:16:06.620 that we face
00:16:07.220 and there
00:16:08.220 are a couple
00:16:08.540 of effects
00:16:09.140 from cognitive
00:16:10.140 psychology
00:16:10.700 that are relevant
00:16:11.500 to this
00:16:11.920 that we're
00:16:12.640 going to
00:16:12.780 talk about
00:16:13.180 the first
00:16:13.560 one is called
00:16:14.220 the continued
00:16:15.460 influence effect
00:16:16.400 the idea here
00:16:17.720 is that even
00:16:18.220 after correcting
00:16:19.140 a belief
00:16:19.960 that was formed
00:16:20.700 on the basis
00:16:21.320 of misinformation
00:16:22.060 we still show
00:16:23.820 evidence of that
00:16:24.480 initial wrong
00:16:25.200 belief
00:16:25.620 affecting the way
00:16:26.880 we think
00:16:27.240 so there's a
00:16:29.140 classic
00:16:29.660 experimental
00:16:30.300 paradigm
00:16:30.760 which was
00:16:32.280 developed in
00:16:33.180 the 1990s
00:16:34.160 where you give
00:16:35.480 people a
00:16:36.160 fictional story
00:16:37.000 about something
00:16:37.760 like a warehouse
00:16:38.320 fire
00:16:38.780 and you tell
00:16:39.520 them there was
00:16:39.880 this big fire
00:16:40.580 in the warehouse
00:16:41.100 that was started
00:16:41.900 in a closet
00:16:42.840 and there was
00:16:43.860 paint cans
00:16:44.680 and oil
00:16:45.180 left in the
00:16:45.800 closet
00:16:46.100 and that's
00:16:46.960 probably why
00:16:47.860 this fire
00:16:48.300 got out of
00:16:48.700 control
00:16:49.040 and then
00:16:50.720 for half
00:16:51.580 the subjects
00:16:52.320 you correct
00:16:53.060 one piece
00:16:53.740 of information
00:16:54.320 and the other
00:16:54.920 half you don't
00:16:55.560 so for half
00:16:56.180 the subjects
00:16:56.540 you might
00:16:56.840 additionally
00:16:57.180 tell them
00:16:57.660 well a police
00:16:58.640 report came
00:16:59.280 in later
00:16:59.720 and it
00:17:00.400 turned out
00:17:00.840 there wasn't
00:17:01.460 any oil
00:17:02.140 and gas
00:17:02.700 in the closet
00:17:03.340 and then
00:17:04.740 you interview
00:17:05.120 these people
00:17:05.560 and you ask
00:17:06.080 them about
00:17:06.460 the fire
00:17:06.960 you ask
00:17:07.440 them to explain
00:17:08.120 why the fire
00:17:08.820 happened
00:17:09.240 and to give
00:17:09.780 you some
00:17:10.040 details
00:17:11.100 and even
00:17:12.080 when the
00:17:13.180 information
00:17:13.640 about the
00:17:14.040 oil and gas
00:17:14.720 in the closet
00:17:15.200 was corrected
00:17:15.800 they've been
00:17:16.280 told there
00:17:16.640 wasn't anything
00:17:17.120 in that closet
00:17:17.960 people still
00:17:18.620 explain the
00:17:19.180 fire in terms
00:17:19.840 of things
00:17:20.180 like well
00:17:20.740 you know
00:17:21.340 oil fires
00:17:21.960 are harder
00:17:22.420 to put out
00:17:23.020 or the
00:17:24.260 negligence
00:17:25.400 of the company
00:17:25.900 leaving those
00:17:26.440 dangerous things
00:17:27.100 in the closet
00:17:27.580 you can still
00:17:28.100 show that
00:17:28.540 there's
00:17:29.040 the belief
00:17:29.420 persists
00:17:30.000 you know
00:17:30.440 they weren't
00:17:30.780 able to go
00:17:31.200 in there
00:17:31.540 with an
00:17:32.000 eraser
00:17:32.340 and just
00:17:33.000 erase it
00:17:34.240 or delete
00:17:35.000 it
00:17:35.220 and all
00:17:35.760 of the
00:17:36.020 subsequent
00:17:36.480 thoughts
00:17:37.340 that they
00:17:37.560 had about
00:17:37.960 it
00:17:38.140 and this
00:17:39.480 is the
00:17:39.900 continued
00:17:40.160 influence
00:17:40.520 effect
00:17:41.100 yeah this
00:17:41.860 is a
00:17:42.540 fairly
00:17:43.500 sinister
00:17:44.580 bug
00:17:45.140 in our
00:17:45.760 software
00:17:47.080 which
00:17:47.720 I'm not
00:17:48.320 sure
00:17:48.620 what the
00:17:50.060 remedy for
00:17:51.320 it is
00:17:51.740 in the end
00:17:52.220 I mean
00:17:52.400 this is
00:17:52.740 something
00:17:52.960 that we
00:17:53.600 have to be
00:17:54.080 continually
00:17:54.920 on our
00:17:55.260 guard
00:17:55.480 for
00:17:55.740 this also
00:17:56.800 goes by
00:17:57.220 the name
00:17:57.600 of the
00:17:57.960 illusory
00:17:58.520 truth
00:17:58.920 effect
00:17:59.380 and
00:18:00.660 again
00:18:01.520 it's
00:18:02.140 even
00:18:02.500 even
00:18:02.520 even
00:18:02.540 in
00:18:02.780 the
00:18:02.920 disconfirmation
00:18:04.040 of
00:18:04.280 false
00:18:04.580 information
00:18:05.200 the
00:18:06.080 initial
00:18:06.660 false
00:18:07.540 information
00:18:08.120 gets
00:18:09.360 ramified
00:18:10.280 in people's
00:18:11.140 memory
00:18:11.680 and I
00:18:12.580 noticed this
00:18:13.060 in myself
00:18:13.500 I
00:18:13.680 actually
00:18:14.160 I'm going to
00:18:15.080 ping you
00:18:15.560 as a
00:18:15.960 naive
00:18:16.840 subject
00:18:17.320 on this
00:18:18.040 point
00:18:18.320 and see
00:18:18.620 if you
00:18:18.860 have a
00:18:19.220 similar
00:18:19.520 contamination
00:18:20.200 of memory
00:18:20.760 do you
00:18:22.120 remember
00:18:22.600 the
00:18:23.620 McMartin
00:18:24.240 Preschool
00:18:24.800 saga
00:18:26.000 this was
00:18:26.820 part of
00:18:27.360 the
00:18:27.540 satanic
00:18:28.460 ritual
00:18:28.800 abuse
00:18:29.260 panic
00:18:29.800 craze
00:18:30.620 that
00:18:30.780 happened
00:18:31.080 in the
00:18:31.940 80s
00:18:32.580 and there
00:18:33.800 was the
00:18:33.980 McMartin
00:18:34.380 Preschool
00:18:34.820 which was
00:18:35.240 the
00:18:35.460 most famous
00:18:36.760 instance
00:18:37.400 of
00:18:37.960 this
00:18:38.920 alleged
00:18:39.260 abuse
00:18:39.680 do you
00:18:39.900 remember
00:18:40.320 that
00:18:40.540 case
00:18:40.840 at all
00:18:41.140 vaguely
00:18:41.860 I think
00:18:42.180 there were
00:18:42.540 some
00:18:42.700 parents
00:18:43.080 who
00:18:43.240 basically
00:18:43.580 got
00:18:43.880 in
00:18:44.040 some
00:18:44.200 kind
00:18:44.400 of
00:18:44.540 hysteria
00:18:46.060 about
00:18:46.440 satanic
00:18:47.160 abuse
00:18:47.500 of the
00:18:47.740 children
00:18:48.020 right
00:18:48.780 what do
00:18:50.260 you
00:18:50.380 think
00:18:50.740 the
00:18:51.180 net
00:18:51.420 result
00:18:51.820 of
00:18:52.040 that
00:18:52.300 case
00:18:52.780 was
00:18:53.100 was
00:18:53.780 there
00:18:54.100 actual
00:18:54.660 abuse
00:18:55.120 at a
00:18:55.520 preschool
00:18:55.920 or
00:18:56.300 what's
00:18:57.100 your
00:18:57.180 memory
00:18:57.420 of that
00:18:57.740 right
00:18:58.060 my
00:18:58.620 revised
00:18:59.960 narrative
00:19:00.900 is that
00:19:01.240 there was
00:19:01.640 no
00:19:01.900 abuse
00:19:02.300 and that
00:19:02.680 there was
00:19:03.380 no
00:19:03.540 actual
00:19:03.840 satanic
00:19:04.280 cult
00:19:04.540 involved
00:19:04.960 okay
00:19:05.520 good
00:19:05.780 well
00:19:05.940 you
00:19:06.160 were
00:19:06.460 better
00:19:06.680 than
00:19:06.840 I
00:19:07.020 was
00:19:07.220 so
00:19:07.480 when
00:19:07.780 I
00:19:07.940 hadn't
00:19:08.760 thought
00:19:08.940 about
00:19:09.140 this
00:19:09.340 in
00:19:09.540 years
00:19:10.180 and
00:19:10.420 then
00:19:10.520 I
00:19:10.600 had
00:19:10.680 a
00:19:10.800 podcast
00:19:11.140 on
00:19:12.060 some
00:19:12.260 related
00:19:12.660 topic
00:19:13.300 maybe
00:19:14.120 two
00:19:14.920 years
00:19:15.160 ago
00:19:15.440 I
00:19:15.620 forget
00:19:15.800 who
00:19:15.920 I
00:19:16.000 was
00:19:16.100 talking
00:19:20.740 that
00:19:21.260 there
00:19:21.420 was
00:19:21.580 some
00:19:22.500 fire
00:19:23.080 where
00:19:23.360 there
00:19:23.520 was
00:19:23.640 all
00:19:23.820 this
00:19:24.020 smoke
00:19:24.340 but
00:19:24.960 I
00:19:25.120 just
00:19:25.440 didn't
00:19:26.380 remember
00:19:26.880 the
00:19:27.080 details
00:19:27.500 and
00:19:28.380 it
00:19:28.500 turns
00:19:28.720 out
00:19:29.040 this
00:19:29.760 is
00:19:29.920 just
00:19:30.080 the
00:19:30.300 ultimate
00:19:31.080 example
00:19:31.640 of
00:19:32.280 belief
00:19:33.340 persistence
00:19:33.900 in my
00:19:34.460 case
00:19:34.740 because
00:19:35.060 this
00:19:35.600 had
00:19:35.800 been
00:19:36.280 fully
00:19:36.920 debunked
00:19:37.460 this
00:19:37.720 trial
00:19:39.200 went on
00:19:39.640 for
00:19:39.780 years
00:19:40.260 one
00:19:40.640 of
00:19:41.000 the
00:19:41.100 teachers
00:19:41.400 spent
00:19:41.700 five
00:19:42.200 years
00:19:42.580 in
00:19:42.800 prison
00:19:43.320 and
00:19:44.080 finally
00:19:44.520 got
00:19:44.700 acquitted
00:19:45.060 all
00:19:45.960 charges
00:19:46.400 were
00:19:46.600 dropped
00:19:46.960 hundreds
00:19:47.460 of
00:19:47.760 kids
00:19:48.200 were
00:19:49.060 interviewed
00:19:49.460 with
00:19:49.920 techniques
00:19:50.480 that
00:19:50.740 are
00:19:50.980 now
00:19:51.260 like
00:19:51.560 textbook
00:19:52.200 errors
00:19:52.720 in
00:19:52.980 how
00:19:53.200 not
00:19:53.560 to
00:19:53.720 interview
00:19:54.020 children
00:19:54.600 about
00:19:55.340 alleged
00:19:55.680 abuse
00:19:56.180 they
00:19:56.980 created
00:19:57.260 a
00:19:57.520 psychological
00:19:58.160 experiment
00:19:58.780 seemingly
00:19:59.700 designed
00:20:00.300 to produce
00:20:01.000 false
00:20:01.480 memories
00:20:01.940 and false
00:20:02.620 confessions
00:20:03.340 and just
00:20:03.800 sheer
00:20:04.160 confabulation
00:20:04.980 and this
00:20:05.960 whole thing
00:20:06.480 exploded
00:20:07.100 but it
00:20:07.860 had been
00:20:08.140 lodged
00:20:08.500 in my
00:20:08.780 memory
00:20:09.120 as
00:20:09.600 god
00:20:10.480 there
00:20:10.600 was
00:20:10.700 probably
00:20:11.060 something
00:20:11.340 really
00:20:11.600 heinous
00:20:11.960 that
00:20:12.100 happened
00:20:12.360 over there
00:20:12.700 at the
00:20:12.900 McMartin
00:20:13.220 preschool
00:20:13.560 I'm
00:20:14.480 so glad
00:20:15.200 those
00:20:15.380 people were
00:20:15.700 brought
00:20:15.860 to
00:20:16.020 justice
00:20:16.300 but
00:20:16.880 this
00:20:17.080 is
00:20:17.260 an
00:20:17.900 awful
00:20:18.480 piece
00:20:19.260 of our
00:20:19.580 code
00:20:20.480 where
00:20:20.600 we
00:20:21.560 have
00:20:21.720 a
00:20:21.880 truth
00:20:22.440 bias
00:20:23.240 and
00:20:23.460 it
00:20:23.620 seems
00:20:23.800 like
00:20:24.040 this
00:20:24.260 may
00:20:24.480 be
00:20:24.660 based
00:20:25.040 on
00:20:25.540 kind
00:20:26.320 of
00:20:26.400 a
00:20:26.520 default
00:20:26.920 setting
00:20:27.440 of
00:20:28.320 accepting
00:20:28.980 anything
00:20:30.200 propositional
00:20:31.060 that we
00:20:31.460 understand
00:20:32.240 may
00:20:32.800 include
00:20:33.360 some
00:20:33.700 tacit
00:20:34.340 acceptance
00:20:35.120 and
00:20:35.460 actually
00:20:35.820 the
00:20:36.000 philosopher
00:20:36.380 Spinoza
00:20:37.160 conjectured
00:20:38.260 about this
00:20:39.020 back in
00:20:39.920 the 17th
00:20:40.460 century
00:20:40.760 and there
00:20:41.680 have been
00:20:41.920 several
00:20:42.360 studies
00:20:43.140 that have
00:20:43.840 supported
00:20:44.600 this
00:20:44.880 and actually
00:20:45.360 our own
00:20:45.800 studies
00:20:46.320 of belief
00:20:47.520 with
00:20:47.860 fMRI
00:20:48.840 supported
00:20:49.600 this
00:20:50.020 based
00:20:50.480 on
00:20:50.660 our
00:20:51.000 behavioral
00:20:51.700 measures
00:20:52.280 in
00:20:52.960 that
00:20:53.200 we
00:20:53.760 saw
00:20:54.040 that
00:20:54.280 people
00:20:55.040 were
00:20:55.300 faster
00:20:55.900 to
00:20:56.520 accept
00:20:57.340 propositions
00:20:58.640 as
00:20:58.880 true
00:20:59.340 than
00:21:00.120 they
00:21:00.280 were
00:21:00.520 to
00:21:00.720 reject
00:21:01.000 them
00:21:01.180 as
00:21:01.320 false
00:21:01.720 and
00:21:02.300 this
00:21:02.420 is
00:21:02.540 true
00:21:02.760 even
00:21:03.100 of
00:21:03.260 propositions
00:21:03.860 that
00:21:04.080 are
00:21:04.680 equivalently
00:21:05.320 simple
00:21:06.060 so
00:21:06.340 if I
00:21:06.700 give
00:21:06.880 you
00:21:07.020 a set
00:21:07.580 of
00:21:07.700 equations
00:21:08.220 2
00:21:09.240 plus
00:21:09.400 2
00:21:09.560 equals
00:21:09.760 4
00:21:10.140 2
00:21:10.820 plus
00:21:11.040 3
00:21:11.320 equals
00:21:11.600 4
00:21:12.000 1
00:21:12.840 is
00:21:13.000 true
00:21:13.280 1
00:21:13.580 is
00:21:13.740 false
00:21:14.220 they're
00:21:14.840 equally
00:21:15.220 simple
00:21:16.000 and
00:21:16.700 yet
00:21:16.900 you
00:21:17.260 will
00:21:17.560 answer
00:21:18.160 the
00:21:18.440 true
00:21:18.720 ones
00:21:19.060 you
00:21:19.180 will
00:21:19.320 respond
00:21:19.680 true
00:21:20.000 to
00:21:20.180 true
00:21:20.620 on
00:21:21.400 average
00:21:21.760 faster
00:21:22.200 than
00:21:22.400 you
00:21:22.500 will
00:21:22.660 respond
00:21:23.180 false
00:21:24.040 to
00:21:24.240 false
00:21:24.620 and
00:21:25.240 that
00:21:25.380 seems
00:21:25.560 to
00:21:25.700 suggest
00:21:26.080 that
00:21:26.380 our
00:21:26.940 default
00:21:27.260 setting
00:21:27.660 is
00:21:28.200 to
00:21:28.380 accept
00:21:28.820 it
00:21:28.980 as
00:21:29.160 true
00:21:29.560 and
00:21:29.880 that
00:21:30.180 rejecting
00:21:31.000 it
00:21:31.280 as
00:21:31.520 false
00:21:32.020 is
00:21:32.260 a
00:21:32.460 further
00:21:33.040 cognitive
00:21:33.920 judgment
00:21:34.820 that
00:21:35.080 takes
00:21:35.560 time
00:21:36.040 to
00:21:36.440 render
00:21:36.720 that's
00:21:37.880 interesting
00:21:38.240 yeah
00:21:38.480 that's
00:21:38.720 definitely
00:21:38.920 one
00:21:39.100 of
00:21:39.180 the
00:21:39.260 features
00:21:39.560 I
00:21:39.740 think
00:21:39.900 it
00:21:40.020 is
00:21:40.140 easier
00:21:40.480 to
00:21:40.680 accept
00:21:41.160 the
00:21:41.380 statements
00:21:41.740 that
00:21:41.940 were
00:21:42.020 given
00:21:42.260 as
00:21:42.420 true
00:21:42.760 you
00:21:43.380 hit
00:21:43.520 upon
00:21:43.720 one
00:21:43.900 of
00:21:43.980 the
00:21:44.080 other
00:21:44.280 cognitive
00:21:44.780 bugs
00:21:45.700 at
00:21:45.920 play
00:21:46.180 which
00:21:46.420 is
00:21:46.620 this
00:21:46.880 repetition
00:21:47.400 effect
00:21:47.880 in
00:21:48.040 memory
00:21:48.360 where
00:21:49.100 just
00:21:49.480 hearing
00:21:49.840 something
00:21:50.280 multiple
00:21:50.700 times
00:21:51.260 the
00:21:51.900 more
00:21:52.180 times
00:21:52.440 we
00:21:52.580 hear
00:21:52.780 it
00:21:52.900 the
00:21:53.000 more
00:21:53.180 likely
00:21:53.500 we
00:21:53.700 are
00:21:53.880 to
00:21:54.160 accept
00:21:54.600 it
00:21:54.720 as
00:21:54.880 true
00:21:55.180 and
00:21:55.720 this
00:21:55.880 is
00:21:56.020 particularly
00:21:56.380 sinister
00:21:57.160 in
00:21:57.520 the
00:21:57.640 case
00:21:57.860 of
00:21:58.020 misinformation
00:21:58.480 correction
00:21:59.200 because
00:21:59.760 the
00:22:00.420 correction
00:22:00.780 itself
00:22:01.440 often
00:22:02.260 involves
00:22:02.820 a
00:22:03.040 restatement
00:22:03.720 of
00:22:04.480 the
00:22:04.760 false
00:22:04.980 belief
00:22:05.360 so
00:22:05.860 if
00:22:06.060 you
00:22:06.100 say
00:22:06.260 there
00:22:06.540 wasn't
00:22:07.220 paint
00:22:07.700 in
00:22:08.100 the
00:22:08.460 closet
00:22:08.760 the
00:22:09.560 idea
00:22:10.020 of
00:22:10.180 paint
00:22:10.380 in
00:22:10.480 the
00:22:10.580 closet
00:22:10.840 has
00:22:11.120 to
00:22:11.240 be
00:22:11.400 invoked
00:22:11.820 in
00:22:12.000 order
00:22:12.160 to
00:22:12.380 understand
00:22:12.800 that
00:22:13.020 sentence
00:22:13.440 and
00:22:14.040 so
00:22:14.320 the
00:22:14.860 correction
00:22:15.220 can
00:22:15.520 serve
00:22:15.860 as
00:22:16.040 another
00:22:16.320 repetition
00:22:16.980 and
00:22:17.420 make
00:22:17.600 it
00:22:17.720 more
00:22:17.900 difficult
00:22:18.520 to
00:22:18.980 delete
00:22:19.860 that
00:22:20.080 the
00:22:20.240 other
00:22:20.460 factor
00:22:21.120 here
00:22:21.460 is
00:22:21.900 that
00:22:22.240 when
00:22:22.980 we
00:22:23.440 accept
00:22:23.800 something
00:22:24.100 is
00:22:24.320 true
00:22:24.680 you
00:22:25.200 know
00:22:25.300 we
00:22:25.500 don't
00:22:25.780 stop
00:22:26.040 thinking
00:22:26.320 about
00:22:26.580 it
00:22:26.760 it's
00:22:26.960 not
00:22:27.060 like
00:22:27.180 we
00:22:27.280 just
00:22:27.440 have
00:22:27.620 this
00:22:27.800 one
00:22:28.180 sentence
00:22:28.820 that
00:22:29.080 exists
00:22:29.560 on
00:22:29.820 its
00:22:29.980 own
00:22:30.300 separate
00:22:31.100 from
00:22:31.380 all
00:22:31.680 other
00:22:31.960 ideas
00:22:32.460 in
00:22:32.620 our
00:22:32.740 mind
00:22:33.020 that
00:22:33.240 there
00:22:33.380 was
00:22:33.520 paint
00:22:33.840 or
00:22:34.100 oil
00:22:34.400 in
00:22:34.660 that
00:22:34.900 closet
00:22:35.380 we
00:22:35.620 start
00:22:35.880 thinking
00:22:36.140 about
00:22:36.420 all
00:22:36.640 of
00:22:36.760 the
00:22:36.880 ramifications
00:22:37.480 the
00:22:37.880 consequences
00:22:38.480 the
00:22:39.280 other
00:22:39.420 things
00:22:39.680 that
00:22:39.840 follow
00:22:40.160 from
00:22:40.360 that
00:22:40.520 belief
00:22:40.880 and
00:22:41.640 we
00:22:41.800 start
00:22:42.020 to
00:22:42.200 build
00:22:42.580 our
00:22:42.980 mental
00:22:43.240 models
00:22:43.760 upon
00:22:44.580 these
00:22:44.960 foundations
00:22:45.740 that
00:22:46.200 we
00:22:46.320 have
00:22:46.600 and
00:22:46.840 so
00:22:47.080 it's
00:22:47.520 like
00:22:47.700 pulling
00:22:48.180 out
00:22:48.540 a
00:22:49.360 one
00:22:50.080 piece
00:22:50.340 of
00:22:50.480 code
00:22:50.720 when
00:22:50.900 there
00:22:51.040 are
00:22:51.140 all
00:22:51.260 these
00:22:51.420 other
00:22:51.580 pieces
00:22:51.820 of
00:22:52.020 code
00:22:52.200 that
00:22:52.360 have
00:22:52.460 already
00:22:52.680 followed
00:22:53.000 from
00:22:53.220 it
00:22:53.400 now
00:22:55.100 there's
00:22:55.380 a
00:22:55.680 an
00:22:56.240 alleged
00:22:56.640 further
00:22:57.880 iteration
00:22:58.980 of
00:22:59.200 this
00:22:59.420 which
00:22:59.800 seems
00:23:00.960 even
00:23:01.460 more
00:23:02.460 dysfunctional
00:23:03.720 although
00:23:03.980 there's
00:23:04.240 I think
00:23:04.460 there's
00:23:04.600 some
00:23:04.720 question
00:23:05.020 as to
00:23:05.220 whether
00:23:05.380 or not
00:23:05.740 this
00:23:06.000 is
00:23:06.140 replicated
00:23:06.620 but
00:23:06.920 this
00:23:07.340 is
00:23:07.520 this
00:23:08.180 meme
00:23:09.060 spread
00:23:09.680 widely
00:23:11.120 in the
00:23:11.440 culture
00:23:11.820 it'll
00:23:12.580 be
00:23:12.820 ironic
00:23:13.460 if
00:23:13.820 we
00:23:14.400 have
00:23:14.640 to
00:23:14.760 debunk
00:23:15.100 it
00:23:15.240 and
00:23:15.380 find
00:23:15.640 that
00:23:15.860 we
00:23:16.000 can't
00:23:16.400 because
00:23:16.780 the
00:23:17.420 putative
00:23:17.780 effect
00:23:18.220 is
00:23:18.600 invoked
00:23:19.020 but
00:23:19.260 there's
00:23:19.780 something
00:23:19.920 called
00:23:20.160 the
00:23:20.500 backfire
00:23:21.280 effect
00:23:21.720 that
00:23:22.020 many
00:23:22.240 people
00:23:22.560 now
00:23:23.340 think
00:23:23.580 they
00:23:23.740 know
00:23:23.900 something
00:23:24.140 about
00:23:24.460 what
00:23:25.540 is
00:23:25.760 this
00:23:25.980 and
00:23:26.180 what
00:23:26.740 do
00:23:26.820 we
00:23:26.920 think
00:23:27.060 we
00:23:27.180 know
00:23:27.320 about
00:23:27.540 it
00:23:27.700 yeah
00:23:28.440 so
00:23:28.800 let's
00:23:29.200 let's
00:23:29.380 see
00:23:29.480 if
00:23:29.560 we
00:23:29.640 can
00:23:29.740 do
00:23:29.860 our
00:23:30.000 own
00:23:30.180 little
00:23:30.380 experiment
00:23:30.920 with
00:23:31.240 the
00:23:31.540 continued
00:23:32.560 influence
00:23:32.980 effect
00:23:33.320 if
00:23:33.480 we
00:23:33.580 describe
00:23:34.020 this
00:23:34.220 effect
00:23:34.500 first
00:23:34.820 and
00:23:34.960 then
00:23:35.120 try
00:23:35.460 to
00:23:35.580 debunk
00:23:35.880 it
00:23:36.060 so
00:23:36.440 there's
00:23:37.460 a
00:23:37.660 classic
00:23:38.000 study
00:23:38.300 from
00:23:46.000 the
00:23:46.440 Iraq
00:23:46.680 war
00:23:46.960 and
00:23:47.420 so
00:23:47.540 this
00:23:47.680 is
00:23:47.900 2005
00:23:48.580 or so
00:23:49.140 that
00:23:49.760 the
00:23:49.900 experiment
00:23:50.220 was
00:23:50.500 done
00:23:50.820 and
00:23:51.340 the
00:23:51.500 Iraq
00:23:51.720 war
00:23:51.840 was
00:23:52.000 fresh
00:23:52.240 in
00:23:52.380 people's
00:23:52.740 minds
00:23:53.040 and
00:23:53.220 remember
00:23:53.760 that
00:23:54.040 from
00:23:54.180 that
00:23:54.300 war
00:23:54.460 there's
00:23:54.680 this
00:23:54.820 whole
00:23:54.980 issue
00:23:55.280 about
00:23:55.780 the
00:23:56.540 Bush
00:23:56.740 administration
00:23:57.260 used
00:23:57.840 the
00:23:58.160 presence
00:23:58.640 of
00:23:58.860 weapons
00:23:59.160 of
00:23:59.360 mass
00:23:59.600 destruction
00:24:00.100 in
00:24:00.880 Saddam's
00:24:01.460 stockpile
00:24:02.880 as a
00:24:03.760 justification
00:24:04.180 for the
00:24:05.080 attack
00:24:05.460 so
00:24:06.420 this
00:24:06.620 little
00:24:06.820 news
00:24:07.040 story
00:24:07.320 contained
00:24:07.800 a
00:24:08.000 quote
00:24:08.280 from
00:24:08.540 President
00:24:08.880 Bush
00:24:09.180 where
00:24:09.340 he
00:24:09.440 made
00:24:09.600 comments
00:24:10.040 alluding
00:24:10.440 to
00:24:10.660 the dangers
00:24:11.140 posed
00:24:11.520 by
00:24:11.940 Saddam Hussein
00:24:12.680 having
00:24:12.940 these
00:24:13.160 weapons
00:24:13.520 and
00:24:14.500 this
00:24:15.420 is
00:24:15.540 the
00:24:15.660 information
00:24:16.060 that
00:24:16.540 they
00:24:16.680 attempted
00:24:16.960 to
00:24:17.180 correct
00:24:17.500 so
00:24:18.080 some
00:24:18.420 subjects
00:24:18.720 were
00:24:18.900 given
00:24:19.180 an
00:24:19.580 additional
00:24:19.880 corrective
00:24:20.500 piece
00:24:20.820 of
00:24:20.940 information
00:24:21.380 which
00:24:21.780 was
00:24:22.160 actually
00:24:22.400 a
00:24:22.560 true
00:24:22.740 piece
00:24:22.960 of
00:24:23.120 information
00:24:23.580 that
00:24:24.220 there
00:24:24.360 was
00:24:24.500 this
00:24:24.680 extensive
00:24:25.200 report
00:24:25.740 the
00:24:26.020 Dolfer
00:24:26.420 report
00:24:26.840 which
00:24:27.340 conclusively
00:24:28.000 established
00:24:28.480 that
00:24:28.820 there
00:24:29.000 were
00:24:29.180 basically
00:24:29.660 no
00:24:30.060 weapons
00:24:30.540 of
00:24:30.700 mass
00:24:30.900 destruction
00:24:31.420 at least
00:24:31.820 not
00:24:32.140 in
00:24:32.560 any
00:24:32.720 quantity
00:24:33.080 that
00:24:33.300 could
00:24:33.440 have
00:24:33.560 made
00:24:33.680 a
00:24:33.800 difference
00:24:34.120 and
00:24:35.240 half
00:24:35.440 the
00:24:35.560 subjects
00:24:35.740 weren't
00:24:36.040 given
00:24:36.220 that
00:24:36.440 correction
00:24:36.820 and
00:24:37.160 they
00:24:37.260 were
00:24:37.360 asked
00:24:37.760 afterwards
00:24:38.440 how
00:24:38.880 strongly
00:24:39.240 they
00:24:39.420 agree
00:24:39.740 with
00:24:39.900 a
00:24:40.040 statement
00:24:40.320 that
00:24:40.540 there
00:24:40.680 were
00:24:40.900 indeed
00:24:41.240 weapons
00:24:41.640 of
00:24:41.800 mass
00:24:42.000 destruction
00:24:42.400 in
00:24:42.780 Iraq
00:24:43.080 and
00:24:43.960 in
00:24:44.080 the
00:24:44.200 conservative
00:24:44.720 subjects
00:24:45.360 who
00:24:46.460 came
00:24:46.840 into
00:24:47.040 this
00:24:47.360 with
00:24:47.800 a
00:24:48.320 pre-existing
00:24:48.840 bias
00:24:49.300 that
00:24:49.460 they
00:24:49.540 probably
00:24:49.880 already
00:24:50.480 believed
00:24:50.920 and there's
00:24:51.180 evidence
00:24:51.500 that
00:24:51.720 conservatives
00:24:52.120 at the
00:24:52.480 time
00:24:52.700 believed
00:24:53.000 this
00:24:53.240 believed
00:24:54.080 that
00:24:54.280 the
00:24:54.400 weapons
00:24:54.620 of
00:24:54.760 mass
00:24:54.940 destruction
00:24:55.240 were
00:24:55.460 there
00:24:55.660 when
00:24:56.260 they
00:24:56.400 received
00:24:56.800 this
00:24:57.040 corrective
00:24:57.540 information
00:24:58.120 their
00:24:58.880 belief
00:24:59.200 in
00:24:59.360 the
00:24:59.480 weapons
00:24:59.740 of
00:24:59.880 mass
00:25:00.060 destruction
00:25:00.360 actually
00:25:00.660 got
00:25:00.880 stronger
00:25:01.380 so
00:25:02.180 not
00:25:02.860 only
00:25:03.060 were
00:25:03.700 they
00:25:03.820 not
00:25:03.940 able
00:25:04.060 to
00:25:04.240 correct
00:25:04.640 the
00:25:04.940 misinformation
00:25:05.300 but
00:25:06.020 the
00:25:06.180 act
00:25:06.940 of
00:25:07.100 correcting
00:25:07.500 made
00:25:08.360 the
00:25:08.520 belief
00:25:08.700 stronger
00:25:09.060 and
00:25:09.240 that's
00:25:09.420 why
00:25:09.520 it's
00:25:09.680 called
00:25:09.800 the
00:25:09.960 backfire
00:25:10.440 effect
00:25:10.740 this
00:25:10.940 is a
00:25:11.140 total
00:25:11.320 backfire
00:25:11.740 you're
00:25:11.920 trying
00:25:12.080 to make
00:25:12.360 the
00:25:12.500 belief
00:25:12.680 weaker
00:25:13.000 and
00:25:13.540 instead
00:25:13.820 you
00:25:13.980 make
00:25:14.140 it
00:25:14.240 stronger
00:25:14.600 right
00:25:15.420 so
00:25:15.960 and I
00:25:16.820 forget
00:25:17.080 when this
00:25:17.400 happened
00:25:17.840 a couple
00:25:18.600 years
00:25:18.880 back
00:25:19.280 that
00:25:19.500 this
00:25:19.720 might
00:25:19.920 have
00:25:20.040 been
00:25:20.420 born
00:25:21.420 of
00:25:21.620 a
00:25:21.840 New
00:25:22.300 Yorker
00:25:23.360 article
00:25:23.700 on
00:25:24.480 the
00:25:24.660 topic
00:25:25.020 but
00:25:25.340 this
00:25:25.960 suddenly
00:25:26.380 became
00:25:26.920 very
00:25:27.320 prominent
00:25:27.700 in the
00:25:27.960 culture
00:25:28.220 for
00:25:28.420 people
00:25:28.660 to
00:25:28.900 talk
00:25:29.620 about
00:25:29.880 think
00:25:30.120 about
00:25:30.380 worry
00:25:30.680 about
00:25:30.900 the
00:25:31.060 backfire
00:25:31.540 effect
00:25:31.940 what
00:25:33.000 efforts
00:25:33.300 have
00:25:33.420 been
00:25:33.520 made
00:25:33.780 to
00:25:34.200 replicate
00:25:34.880 this
00:25:35.320 so
00:25:36.100 there
00:25:36.240 have
00:25:36.320 been
00:25:36.420 many
00:25:36.640 efforts
00:25:36.980 to
00:25:37.140 replicate
00:25:37.420 this
00:25:37.780 and
00:25:37.900 it
00:25:38.000 has
00:25:38.100 been
00:25:38.220 difficult
00:25:38.620 to
00:25:38.920 replicate
00:25:39.220 there
00:25:39.720 was
00:25:39.880 a
00:25:40.060 study
00:25:40.380 a
00:25:40.920 couple
00:25:41.120 years
00:25:41.440 ago
00:25:41.700 by
00:25:42.040 Thomas
00:25:42.480 Wood
00:25:42.800 and
00:25:43.080 Ethan
00:25:43.600 Porter
00:25:44.000 which
00:25:44.640 pretty
00:25:44.920 much
00:25:45.240 eviscerated
00:25:45.920 the
00:25:46.080 backfire
00:25:46.460 effect
00:25:46.760 they
00:25:47.680 performed
00:25:48.340 a
00:25:53.360 issues
00:25:53.680 that
00:25:53.900 they
00:25:54.040 gave
00:25:54.200 them
00:25:54.340 corrective
00:25:54.760 information
00:25:55.180 about
00:25:55.540 and
00:25:56.180 they
00:25:56.280 were
00:25:56.400 not
00:25:56.640 able
00:25:56.860 to
00:25:57.040 find
00:25:57.320 any
00:25:57.660 evidence
00:25:58.060 of
00:25:58.280 backfire
00:25:58.800 effect
00:25:59.160 across
00:25:59.840 any
00:26:00.160 of
00:26:00.300 these
00:26:00.460 52
00:26:00.840 different
00:26:01.200 political
00:26:01.660 issues
00:26:02.520 in fact
00:26:03.120 most
00:26:03.920 of the
00:26:04.160 people
00:26:04.400 in the
00:26:04.720 study
00:26:04.980 something
00:26:05.280 like
00:26:05.460 85%
00:26:06.300 did
00:26:06.960 show
00:26:07.220 some
00:26:07.460 significant
00:26:08.060 corrective
00:26:08.820 response
00:26:09.300 to the
00:26:09.640 factual
00:26:09.960 information
00:26:10.520 so
00:26:12.100 why
00:26:13.220 is
00:26:13.720 the
00:26:13.860 backfire
00:26:14.260 effect
00:26:14.600 difficult
00:26:15.040 to
00:26:15.680 establish
00:26:16.100 does
00:26:16.520 it
00:26:16.680 when
00:26:16.980 does
00:26:17.160 it
00:26:17.260 occur
00:26:17.620 if
00:26:18.160 ever
00:26:18.520 these
00:26:18.960 are
00:26:19.320 questions
00:26:19.900 of
00:26:20.180 ongoing
00:26:20.720 research
00:26:21.240 but
00:26:21.760 there's
00:26:21.880 probably
00:26:22.080 a lot
00:26:22.300 of
00:26:22.440 context
00:26:22.920 that
00:26:23.160 matters
00:26:23.500 here
00:26:23.780 it
00:26:24.780 could
00:26:25.220 be
00:26:25.380 easier
00:26:25.780 to
00:26:26.260 give
00:26:26.620 up
00:26:26.800 on
00:26:27.160 one
00:26:27.540 particular
00:26:28.020 fact
00:26:28.540 than
00:26:29.020 it
00:26:29.200 is
00:26:29.540 to
00:26:29.860 give
00:26:30.140 up
00:26:30.340 on
00:26:30.540 some
00:26:30.800 underlying
00:26:31.300 important
00:26:31.880 issue
00:26:32.520 for
00:26:32.740 you
00:26:32.920 so
00:26:33.320 for
00:26:33.480 example
00:26:33.860 in
00:26:34.600 one
00:26:35.100 of
00:26:35.160 the
00:26:35.240 experiments
00:26:35.600 that
00:26:35.800 you
00:26:35.900 and
00:26:36.000 I
00:26:36.140 did
00:26:36.340 we
00:26:36.560 gave
00:26:37.440 liberals
00:26:38.140 arguments
00:26:38.720 against
00:26:39.380 gun
00:26:39.960 control
00:26:40.280 and
00:26:40.800 these
00:26:40.960 are
00:26:41.060 people
00:26:41.260 who
00:26:41.400 believe
00:26:41.640 that
00:26:41.820 gun
00:26:42.000 control
00:26:42.300 laws
00:26:42.700 are
00:26:42.940 good
00:26:43.200 and
00:26:43.340 we
00:26:43.480 gave
00:26:43.660 them
00:26:43.800 information
00:26:44.280 statistics
00:26:45.160 about
00:26:45.800 how
00:26:46.920 likely
00:26:47.360 people
00:26:48.060 were
00:26:48.260 to
00:26:48.400 get
00:26:48.600 in
00:26:48.900 gun
00:26:49.160 accidents
00:26:49.600 and
00:26:49.780 things
00:26:49.940 like
00:26:50.100 that
00:26:50.360 and
00:26:50.840 it
00:26:50.940 might
00:26:51.080 be
00:26:51.360 easy
00:26:52.100 for
00:26:52.660 one
00:26:52.880 of
00:26:52.960 the
00:26:53.060 people
00:26:53.260 in
00:26:53.400 this
00:26:53.540 experiment
00:26:54.040 to
00:26:54.860 change
00:26:55.940 their
00:26:56.120 minds
00:26:56.440 about
00:26:56.720 one
00:26:56.920 of
00:26:57.020 these
00:26:57.180 individual
00:26:57.560 facts
00:26:58.060 one
00:26:58.480 of
00:26:58.580 these
00:26:58.720 statistics
00:26:59.140 that
00:26:59.340 we
00:26:59.440 gave
00:26:59.680 them
00:26:59.900 while
00:27:00.480 still
00:27:00.780 maintaining
00:27:01.200 their
00:27:01.380 general
00:27:01.620 position
00:27:02.000 on
00:27:02.220 gun
00:27:02.400 control
00:27:02.740 in
00:27:03.220 fact
00:27:03.320 it
00:27:03.420 might
00:27:03.540 be
00:27:03.680 easier
00:27:04.020 to
00:27:04.200 retreat
00:27:04.580 on
00:27:04.760 an
00:27:04.880 individual
00:27:05.200 fact
00:27:05.660 than
00:27:06.020 it
00:27:06.120 is
00:27:06.300 on
00:27:06.460 some
00:27:06.960 underlying
00:27:07.320 value
00:27:07.680 that
00:27:08.020 may
00:27:08.200 be
00:27:08.320 the
00:27:17.360 probably
00:27:17.580 matters
00:27:18.000 what
00:27:18.360 the
00:27:18.500 issue
00:27:18.740 is
00:27:19.040 right
00:27:19.600 I
00:27:19.780 mean
00:27:19.940 in
00:27:21.060 this
00:27:21.280 Wood
00:27:21.920 and
00:27:22.060 Porter
00:27:22.280 study
00:27:22.600 they
00:27:22.760 tried
00:27:23.000 to
00:27:23.160 replicate
00:27:23.480 very
00:27:23.840 specifically
00:27:24.380 the
00:27:25.100 weapons
00:27:25.380 of
00:27:25.520 mass
00:27:25.720 destruction
00:27:26.160 experiment
00:27:27.360 and
00:27:28.460 they
00:27:28.700 were
00:27:28.840 not
00:27:29.080 able
00:27:29.260 to
00:27:29.440 establish
00:27:29.800 a
00:27:29.940 backfire
00:27:30.380 effect
00:27:30.780 there
00:27:31.080 but
00:27:31.740 the
00:27:32.480 commitment
00:27:32.900 of
00:27:33.440 the
00:27:33.620 individual
00:27:33.980 subjects
00:27:34.520 to
00:27:34.900 these
00:27:35.120 issues
00:27:35.460 matters
00:27:35.960 a lot
00:27:36.500 we
00:27:36.840 found
00:27:37.300 in
00:27:37.640 our
00:27:37.760 own
00:27:37.900 research
00:27:38.340 that
00:27:38.720 for
00:27:39.400 some
00:27:39.700 kinds
00:27:40.000 of
00:27:40.160 issues
00:27:40.580 it's
00:27:41.100 easy
00:27:41.300 to
00:27:41.460 change
00:27:41.680 people's
00:27:42.100 minds
00:27:42.400 for
00:27:42.680 other
00:27:42.920 kinds
00:27:43.220 of
00:27:43.360 issues
00:27:43.700 it's
00:27:44.060 very
00:27:44.220 difficult
00:27:44.580 those
00:27:45.260 issues
00:27:45.540 that
00:27:45.740 people
00:27:45.980 tend
00:27:46.200 to
00:27:46.300 be
00:27:46.420 most
00:27:46.660 resistant
00:27:47.060 on
00:27:47.440 are
00:27:48.040 the
00:27:48.160 ones
00:27:48.360 that
00:27:48.480 they
00:27:48.580 have
00:27:48.740 some
00:27:49.260 motivation
00:27:50.020 to
00:27:50.280 maintain
00:27:50.560 their
00:27:50.800 belief
00:27:51.140 and
00:27:51.360 that
00:27:51.520 motivation
00:27:52.040 can
00:27:53.160 be
00:27:53.540 a
00:27:53.900 social
00:27:54.200 motivation
00:27:54.760 these
00:27:55.160 are
00:27:55.280 some
00:27:55.460 of
00:27:55.540 the
00:27:55.580 most
00:27:55.700 common
00:27:56.060 motivations
00:27:56.920 we
00:27:57.140 have
00:27:57.340 now
00:27:57.600 you
00:27:58.480 know
00:27:58.580 beliefs
00:27:58.980 connect
00:27:59.460 us
00:27:59.680 to
00:27:59.840 other
00:28:00.020 people
00:28:00.340 and
00:28:00.760 beliefs
00:28:01.040 that
00:28:01.220 we
00:28:01.340 share
00:28:01.680 with
00:28:01.860 our
00:28:02.000 social
00:28:02.300 group
00:28:02.660 and
00:28:02.860 particularly
00:28:03.240 those
00:28:03.800 beliefs
00:28:04.280 that
00:28:04.600 help
00:28:05.240 to
00:28:05.440 form
00:28:05.740 our
00:28:05.940 social
00:28:06.240 identity
00:28:06.660 our
00:28:06.880 sense
00:28:07.180 of
00:28:07.320 who
00:28:07.440 we
00:28:07.560 are
00:28:07.820 in
00:28:08.060 a
00:28:08.160 group
00:28:08.380 are
00:28:08.740 very
00:28:09.080 very
00:28:09.380 resistant
00:28:09.800 to
00:28:10.020 change
00:28:10.340 and
00:28:11.540 they
00:28:11.680 may
00:28:11.820 be
00:28:11.920 more
00:28:12.100 likely
00:28:12.320 to
00:28:12.500 show
00:28:12.700 a
00:28:12.880 backfire
00:28:13.260 effect
00:28:13.580 in
00:28:14.860 the
00:28:14.980 end
00:28:15.220 I
00:28:15.580 think
00:28:15.820 the
00:28:16.120 focus
00:28:16.440 on
00:28:16.560 the
00:28:16.660 backfire
00:28:17.040 effect
00:28:17.280 is
00:28:17.440 a
00:28:17.560 bit
00:28:17.680 of
00:28:17.780 a
00:28:17.880 red
00:28:18.040 herring
00:28:18.360 it
00:28:18.680 doesn't
00:28:18.960 really
00:28:19.260 matter
00:28:19.580 that
00:28:19.780 much
00:28:20.040 whether
00:28:20.240 corrections
00:28:20.740 backfire
00:28:21.320 or not
00:28:21.560 the
00:28:21.720 real
00:28:22.140 important
00:28:22.600 question
00:28:22.920 is
00:28:23.220 why
00:28:24.560 do
00:28:24.720 the
00:28:24.840 corrections
00:28:25.100 not
00:28:25.380 work
00:28:25.640 at
00:28:25.760 all
00:28:25.960 right
00:28:26.880 if
00:28:27.100 they're
00:28:27.220 not
00:28:27.380 softening
00:28:28.780 our
00:28:28.940 belief
00:28:29.200 it
00:28:29.340 doesn't
00:28:29.520 really
00:28:29.740 matter
00:28:30.060 that
00:28:30.400 much
00:28:30.620 that
00:28:30.760 they
00:28:30.900 made
00:28:31.040 the
00:28:31.160 belief
00:28:31.340 a
00:28:31.460 little
00:28:31.560 bit
00:28:31.740 stronger
00:28:32.080 what
00:28:32.540 we
00:28:32.640 really
00:28:32.880 want
00:28:33.120 is
00:28:33.260 to
00:28:33.580 be
00:28:34.140 able
00:28:34.280 to
00:28:34.460 correct
00:28:34.780 our
00:28:35.060 beliefs
00:28:35.400 yeah
00:28:36.480 I mean
00:28:36.700 one of
00:28:36.940 the
00:28:36.980 things
00:28:37.160 we
00:28:37.380 found
00:28:37.720 in
00:28:37.900 our
00:28:38.060 neuroimaging
00:28:38.540 study
00:28:38.940 on
00:28:39.400 belief
00:28:39.920 change
00:28:40.420 was
00:28:40.700 that
00:28:40.960 the
00:28:42.120 signal
00:28:43.120 in the
00:28:43.420 amygdala
00:28:43.880 and the
00:28:44.160 insula
00:28:44.560 both
00:28:45.160 regions
00:28:45.760 that
00:28:46.020 report
00:28:46.620 emotional
00:28:48.460 salience
00:28:49.180 above
00:28:50.240 anything
00:28:51.500 else
00:28:51.920 especially
00:28:52.540 the
00:28:52.740 amygdala
00:28:53.120 but also
00:28:54.020 the
00:28:54.320 insula
00:28:54.860 that
00:28:57.380 resistance
00:28:57.620 to
00:28:58.220 changing
00:28:58.600 their
00:28:59.000 beliefs
00:28:59.420 under
00:28:59.880 pressure
00:29:00.240 so
00:29:01.240 there's
00:29:01.420 the
00:29:01.820 feeling
00:29:02.620 component
00:29:03.100 of it
00:29:03.520 and also
00:29:04.060 the
00:29:04.420 those
00:29:05.360 cases
00:29:05.780 where
00:29:06.320 there's
00:29:07.500 a
00:29:07.640 kind
00:29:07.780 of
00:29:07.860 a
00:29:07.960 direct
00:29:08.260 line
00:29:08.740 or
00:29:09.580 direct
00:29:10.040 justification
00:29:10.680 for
00:29:11.500 the
00:29:12.260 feeling
00:29:12.500 of
00:29:12.640 emotional
00:29:13.000 charge
00:29:13.540 based
00:29:14.280 on
00:29:14.520 one's
00:29:15.200 beliefs
00:29:16.080 about
00:29:16.340 oneself
00:29:16.740 in
00:29:17.360 the
00:29:17.500 world
00:29:17.780 and
00:29:17.940 one's
00:29:18.180 identity
00:29:18.600 and
00:29:18.960 that's
00:29:19.260 really
00:29:20.560 the
00:29:20.860 framework
00:29:21.840 that
00:29:22.320 I
00:29:23.060 think
00:29:23.360 we
00:29:23.880 would
00:29:24.060 expect
00:29:24.620 would
00:29:25.280 produce
00:29:25.880 this
00:29:26.140 resistance
00:29:26.600 to
00:29:27.140 belief
00:29:27.420 change
00:29:27.780 because
00:29:28.000 there's
00:29:28.980 the
00:29:29.160 not
00:29:29.520 liking
00:29:30.000 how
00:29:30.520 certain
00:29:31.020 facts
00:29:31.440 sound
00:29:31.960 piece
00:29:32.640 but
00:29:33.500 then
00:29:33.680 there's
00:29:33.940 the
00:29:34.240 really
00:29:35.620 not
00:29:35.940 liking
00:29:36.280 it
00:29:36.480 when
00:29:36.920 you
00:29:37.300 do
00:29:37.860 the
00:29:38.060 emotional
00:29:38.500 math
00:29:39.080 however
00:29:39.800 implicitly
00:29:40.580 and realize
00:29:41.080 that
00:29:41.360 if you're
00:29:42.400 the
00:29:42.700 sort
00:29:43.300 of
00:29:43.440 person
00:29:43.820 who
00:29:44.220 accepts
00:29:44.780 this
00:29:45.480 new
00:29:45.800 argument
00:29:46.220 or
00:29:46.540 this
00:29:46.720 new
00:29:46.920 set
00:29:47.120 of
00:29:47.260 facts
00:29:47.680 and
00:29:48.100 changes
00:29:48.600 this
00:29:49.080 specific
00:29:49.820 belief
00:29:50.340 well
00:29:51.360 then
00:29:51.580 you're
00:29:51.960 no
00:29:52.280 longer
00:29:52.620 the
00:29:52.820 sort
00:29:52.980 of
00:29:53.120 person
00:29:53.440 who
00:29:53.800 can
00:29:54.180 have
00:29:54.620 the
00:29:54.780 friends
00:29:55.060 you
00:29:55.240 have
00:29:55.660 be
00:29:56.280 in
00:29:56.380 the
00:29:56.500 political
00:29:56.760 party
00:29:57.140 you're
00:29:58.040 in
00:29:58.340 talk to
00:29:59.340 your
00:29:59.460 family
00:29:59.860 at
00:30:00.120 dinner
00:30:00.440 many
00:30:01.840 things
00:30:02.120 begin
00:30:02.720 to
00:30:02.980 come
00:30:03.840 under
00:30:04.060 pressure
00:30:04.540 depending
00:30:05.540 on
00:30:05.920 just
00:30:06.580 how
00:30:06.940 fundamental
00:30:07.960 or
00:30:08.560 cherished
00:30:09.340 the
00:30:10.160 belief
00:30:10.500 is
00:30:10.860 that
00:30:11.040 is
00:30:11.220 now
00:30:11.800 on
00:30:12.360 the
00:30:12.480 table
00:30:12.740 to
00:30:12.860 be
00:30:12.980 revised
00:30:13.520 I
00:30:14.640 think
00:30:14.920 the
00:30:15.160 punch
00:30:15.840 line
00:30:16.120 for
00:30:16.540 any
00:30:17.320 one
00:30:17.540 of
00:30:17.660 us
00:30:17.840 to
00:30:18.040 just
00:30:18.460 be
00:30:19.060 better
00:30:19.440 people
00:30:19.760 in
00:30:19.920 the
00:30:20.020 world
00:30:20.300 is
00:30:20.660 to
00:30:21.040 notice
00:30:22.520 when
00:30:22.840 this
00:30:23.220 machinery
00:30:24.580 is
00:30:24.860 getting
00:30:25.160 invoked
00:30:25.700 you can
00:30:26.480 feel
00:30:26.780 it
00:30:26.920 happen
00:30:27.220 you can
00:30:27.540 feel
00:30:27.920 when
00:30:28.160 you're
00:30:28.720 disposed
00:30:29.920 to
00:30:30.140 take
00:30:30.580 the
00:30:31.240 way
00:30:31.760 certain
00:30:32.580 ideas
00:30:33.020 make
00:30:33.320 you
00:30:33.500 feel
00:30:34.080 as
00:30:34.880 a
00:30:35.700 thorough
00:30:36.100 going
00:30:36.400 analysis
00:30:36.980 of
00:30:37.420 their
00:30:37.740 truth
00:30:38.500 if
00:30:39.000 you're
00:30:39.160 doing
00:30:39.600 epistemology
00:30:40.520 by
00:30:41.020 fear
00:30:41.980 and anger
00:30:42.580 and disgust
00:30:43.400 and
00:30:43.660 some
00:30:44.340 primary
00:30:44.860 emotions
00:30:45.340 that
00:30:45.920 are
00:30:46.580 getting
00:30:46.820 triggered
00:30:47.320 by
00:30:47.940 specific
00:30:48.940 ideas
00:30:49.560 the
00:30:50.360 place
00:30:50.600 where
00:30:50.740 I've
00:30:51.020 experimented
00:30:51.720 personally
00:30:52.580 with
00:30:53.780 this
00:30:54.080 is
00:30:54.440 on
00:30:55.480 the
00:30:55.620 topic
00:30:56.000 of
00:30:56.400 burning
00:30:57.020 wood
00:30:57.520 in
00:30:57.660 a
00:30:57.780 fireplace
00:30:58.180 I
00:30:58.640 wrote
00:30:59.240 a
00:30:59.460 piece
00:31:00.020 called
00:31:00.360 the
00:31:00.500 fireplace
00:31:00.900 delusion
00:31:01.560 a few
00:31:02.080 years
00:31:02.300 back
00:31:02.640 when I
00:31:03.380 stumbled
00:31:03.740 upon
00:31:04.020 this
00:31:04.220 example
00:31:04.620 quite
00:31:05.560 literally
00:31:05.940 at
00:31:06.120 a
00:31:06.220 dinner
00:31:06.380 party
00:31:06.720 I'm
00:31:07.940 somebody
00:31:08.220 who
00:31:08.460 has
00:31:08.720 known
00:31:09.020 for
00:31:09.280 many
00:31:09.580 years
00:31:10.020 that
00:31:10.400 there's
00:31:11.100 nothing
00:31:11.280 magical
00:31:11.940 about
00:31:12.460 fireplace
00:31:13.180 smoke
00:31:13.660 the fact
00:31:14.560 that we
00:31:14.840 have
00:31:15.260 we feel
00:31:16.500 this
00:31:16.720 deep
00:31:17.180 nostalgia
00:31:17.660 for it
00:31:18.240 and
00:31:18.520 sentimentality
00:31:19.760 around it
00:31:20.440 people love
00:31:21.440 the smell
00:31:21.980 it conveys
00:31:23.700 an idea
00:31:25.280 of Christmas
00:31:25.760 and other
00:31:26.640 happy thoughts
00:31:27.720 to most
00:31:28.060 people
00:31:28.360 all of that
00:31:29.260 notwithstanding
00:31:29.920 if you can
00:31:31.000 smell
00:31:31.320 smoke
00:31:31.840 when you're
00:31:32.160 burning a
00:31:32.520 fire
00:31:32.840 that is
00:31:33.720 from a
00:31:34.680 health
00:31:35.040 point
00:31:35.280 of view
00:31:35.620 more or
00:31:36.540 less
00:31:36.680 indistinguishable
00:31:37.440 from a
00:31:37.940 diesel engine
00:31:39.080 running in
00:31:39.660 your living
00:31:40.440 room
00:31:40.720 and you
00:31:41.320 should be
00:31:41.600 no more
00:31:42.020 sentimental
00:31:42.680 about the
00:31:43.920 smell you're
00:31:44.360 smelling
00:31:44.640 than the
00:31:45.420 fumes you
00:31:45.880 would be
00:31:46.160 smelling
00:31:46.420 in the
00:31:46.920 case of
00:31:47.200 the engine
00:31:47.540 but I
00:31:48.760 found that
00:31:49.160 whenever I
00:31:49.860 pushed
00:31:50.120 people on
00:31:50.660 this
00:31:50.920 it triggered
00:31:52.200 a very
00:31:53.100 familiar
00:31:53.900 quasi
00:31:55.040 religious
00:31:55.780 pushback
00:31:57.220 in them
00:31:57.940 and this
00:31:58.440 was no
00:31:58.700 matter
00:31:58.880 these people
00:32:00.080 could be
00:32:00.360 scientists
00:32:00.880 you could
00:32:02.100 just see
00:32:02.580 the
00:32:02.800 triggering
00:32:03.160 I'm
00:32:03.880 feeling
00:32:04.140 one
00:32:04.360 brewing
00:32:04.620 within
00:32:04.820 myself
00:32:05.280 I don't
00:32:06.440 know if
00:32:06.620 you want me
00:32:06.940 to let it
00:32:07.260 out in this
00:32:07.760 context or not
00:32:08.420 but I do have an
00:32:09.460 argument against this
00:32:10.360 okay let's hear it
00:32:11.280 let's hear your
00:32:11.920 argument
00:32:12.240 it's going to be
00:32:14.040 spectacular
00:32:14.500 well the argument is
00:32:16.600 that fire may have
00:32:17.900 played a special
00:32:18.960 role in human
00:32:19.680 evolution
00:32:20.080 so I don't know if
00:32:21.620 you're familiar
00:32:22.040 of the work of
00:32:22.780 Polly Weissner
00:32:23.520 an anthropologist
00:32:24.600 and she studied
00:32:25.820 what happens
00:32:27.620 when the bush
00:32:29.640 people of
00:32:30.440 Africa
00:32:31.520 the hunter-gatherer
00:32:32.400 societies
00:32:33.140 sit around
00:32:34.500 fires at night
00:32:35.440 and she studied
00:32:37.020 the nature
00:32:37.620 of the
00:32:38.660 types of
00:32:39.340 conversations
00:32:39.880 and communications
00:32:40.840 that happen
00:32:41.320 during the day
00:32:41.940 compared to
00:32:42.700 at night
00:32:43.680 and you know
00:32:44.200 what happens
00:32:44.680 at night
00:32:45.220 is that because
00:32:46.420 you don't have
00:32:47.920 the world
00:32:48.420 in front of you
00:32:48.980 you basically
00:32:50.240 can't talk
00:32:50.840 about business
00:32:51.600 and the here
00:32:52.980 and now
00:32:53.440 of perceptual
00:32:54.520 things that are
00:32:55.020 confronting you
00:32:55.660 the conversation
00:32:56.940 turns to other
00:32:57.620 times and places
00:32:58.380 and people start
00:32:59.600 telling stories
00:33:00.380 and there's this
00:33:01.040 whole sort of
00:33:01.840 storytelling culture
00:33:03.040 around the fire
00:33:03.880 that comes out of
00:33:04.980 this and this may
00:33:05.660 have been something
00:33:06.300 that's been very
00:33:07.040 important for
00:33:07.760 human culture
00:33:08.580 that we therefore
00:33:09.900 have a nostalgia
00:33:10.840 for and I think
00:33:11.560 it extends into
00:33:12.460 things like
00:33:13.140 watching movies
00:33:14.000 and theaters
00:33:14.560 you know
00:33:14.880 where I'll sit
00:33:15.300 around a flickering
00:33:15.920 light and watch
00:33:16.660 things together
00:33:17.280 yeah well that's
00:33:19.680 quite a heartwarming
00:33:21.040 thesis
00:33:23.580 it's actually
00:33:25.320 something I do
00:33:26.080 discuss it in
00:33:27.080 the fireplace
00:33:27.860 delusion
00:33:28.400 and I mean
00:33:29.260 I would just
00:33:29.580 point out
00:33:29.980 that you know
00:33:30.720 whether something
00:33:31.700 has played a
00:33:34.060 role in
00:33:34.900 evolution
00:33:35.560 is rarely
00:33:36.640 an indication
00:33:37.280 of whether
00:33:38.320 it's normative
00:33:40.060 or optimal
00:33:40.740 now right
00:33:42.060 I mean obviously
00:33:42.560 outgroup violence
00:33:44.020 you know
00:33:44.340 tribal violence
00:33:45.080 has
00:33:45.320 no I just
00:33:46.360 think it might
00:33:46.800 explain why
00:33:47.380 we have those
00:33:47.900 feelings about it
00:33:48.740 yeah yeah
00:33:50.060 it's just
00:33:50.440 but it offers
00:33:51.440 no indication
00:33:52.040 that breathing
00:33:52.880 in wood smoke
00:33:53.680 is healthy
00:33:55.060 you know
00:33:55.540 or any
00:33:56.040 healthier than
00:33:56.580 smoking cigarettes
00:33:57.640 or breathing
00:33:59.000 and other forms
00:33:59.740 of air pollution
00:34:00.400 and the data
00:34:02.340 on this
00:34:03.300 is just
00:34:03.940 we just
00:34:04.820 know this
00:34:05.540 to be true
00:34:06.020 and as a matter
00:34:06.800 of public health
00:34:07.660 we know that
00:34:08.960 I believe
00:34:09.840 there's nothing
00:34:11.000 that kills
00:34:12.020 more people
00:34:12.820 you know globally
00:34:14.040 than dirty
00:34:15.660 sources of fuel
00:34:16.840 in the home
00:34:18.160 every year
00:34:19.280 I mean we're
00:34:19.840 talking about
00:34:20.140 literally millions
00:34:21.200 of people
00:34:21.640 who die
00:34:22.240 every year
00:34:23.400 because they're
00:34:24.220 you know
00:34:24.480 largely in the
00:34:25.760 developing world
00:34:27.220 they use
00:34:27.980 you know
00:34:28.980 wood
00:34:29.260 and tongue
00:34:29.780 and other kinds
00:34:30.520 of fuel
00:34:30.900 I gotta say
00:34:31.520 that fact
00:34:32.020 sounds like
00:34:32.480 one of the ones
00:34:32.860 we made up
00:34:33.340 for our experiment
00:34:34.100 we should remember
00:34:37.060 yeah
00:34:37.580 we should
00:34:38.240 that was
00:34:39.260 that was hilarious
00:34:40.140 we were making up
00:34:40.920 facts for the experiment
00:34:42.000 and perhaps
00:34:43.500 did people
00:34:44.060 lasting damage
00:34:44.840 if we couldn't
00:34:45.880 correct those facts
00:34:46.760 if we only
00:34:47.120 ramified those facts
00:34:48.200 in the
00:34:48.900 correcting
00:34:49.400 them afterwards
00:34:50.800 yeah
00:34:51.720 but no it's
00:34:52.720 I'll have to get
00:34:53.720 the data on
00:34:54.320 how many people
00:34:54.960 die
00:34:55.740 but it is
00:34:56.380 enormous
00:34:56.740 because
00:34:57.560 much of the world
00:34:58.880 is still using
00:34:59.620 dirty fuel
00:35:01.060 but it's
00:35:02.360 the air pollution
00:35:03.940 in a city
00:35:04.760 like San Francisco
00:35:06.280 or Los Angeles
00:35:07.200 based on the
00:35:08.600 just the recreational
00:35:09.460 burning of wood
00:35:10.800 in the winter
00:35:11.920 you know
00:35:12.900 it's not even being
00:35:13.520 used as a fuel source
00:35:14.700 it's just
00:35:15.060 people are
00:35:15.620 burning wood fires
00:35:16.920 in their fireplaces
00:35:17.700 just for the fun of it
00:35:18.660 there's no question
00:35:19.780 that that increases
00:35:20.920 emergency room visits
00:35:22.760 based on
00:35:23.460 you know
00:35:23.780 pulmonary
00:35:24.720 and cardiac
00:35:26.920 events
00:35:27.540 and this is all
00:35:28.940 stuff that
00:35:29.460 has been studied
00:35:30.320 and bemoaned
00:35:31.580 by public health
00:35:32.700 people
00:35:33.000 but you know
00:35:34.220 we have this
00:35:34.800 sentimental attachment
00:35:35.600 to burning wood
00:35:36.380 and people
00:35:38.080 are reluctant
00:35:38.840 to get over it
00:35:39.920 yeah
00:35:40.560 the role
00:35:41.940 of feelings
00:35:42.760 and emotions
00:35:43.900 in this whole
00:35:44.400 process of belief
00:35:45.080 is really interesting
00:35:45.980 and there's
00:35:47.200 there's multiple
00:35:48.080 aspects of it
00:35:48.760 I mean on the one hand
00:35:49.620 you're right
00:35:50.480 that if we over
00:35:51.520 if we rely too much
00:35:53.100 on our feelings
00:35:53.720 we can be led astray
00:35:55.400 and just because we
00:35:56.340 feel something is true
00:35:57.600 for example
00:35:58.040 doesn't mean
00:35:58.580 or good for us
00:35:59.340 like the fire
00:35:59.900 doesn't mean that it is
00:36:00.900 and certainly in our
00:36:02.360 experiments we saw
00:36:03.240 the involvement
00:36:04.160 of negative emotions
00:36:05.140 you know
00:36:05.560 when you're challenged
00:36:06.260 you can have this
00:36:08.140 feeling
00:36:08.620 that you know
00:36:10.060 it feels bad
00:36:10.660 you want to get away
00:36:11.760 from the source
00:36:12.620 of the challenge
00:36:13.320 and in fact
00:36:13.920 one of the
00:36:14.960 most effective
00:36:15.880 self-protective
00:36:16.900 mechanisms we have
00:36:18.020 against changing
00:36:18.780 our beliefs
00:36:19.180 is to completely
00:36:19.800 avoid being challenged
00:36:21.420 and we're very good
00:36:22.240 at avoiding information
00:36:23.160 that challenges
00:36:23.700 our beliefs
00:36:24.160 and avoiding
00:36:25.100 putting ourselves
00:36:25.700 in situations
00:36:26.320 where we might
00:36:26.960 have to encounter
00:36:27.660 something that
00:36:29.000 we don't like
00:36:29.800 to hear
00:36:30.180 so there are
00:36:30.640 these negative
00:36:31.160 emotions that
00:36:32.180 can underlie
00:36:33.400 our decisions
00:36:34.220 about what to believe
00:36:35.300 and about what
00:36:35.880 evidence to even
00:36:36.620 look at
00:36:37.140 and there's
00:36:37.960 there's some
00:36:38.380 evidence that
00:36:38.900 these feelings
00:36:39.400 might mediate
00:36:40.180 the whole process
00:36:40.840 of belief change
00:36:41.840 on the other hand
00:36:43.020 there are other
00:36:43.420 feelings
00:36:43.820 you know
00:36:44.020 just because
00:36:44.420 something is a
00:36:45.060 feeling or an
00:36:45.520 emotion
00:36:45.780 doesn't mean
00:36:46.340 that it's necessarily
00:36:47.260 part of an
00:36:47.820 irrational process
00:36:48.940 we have to
00:36:49.920 recognize that
00:36:50.660 emotions are there
00:36:52.520 because they have
00:36:53.960 conferred some
00:36:54.720 advantage
00:36:55.440 throughout the
00:36:56.060 course of history
00:36:57.220 so they're at least
00:36:58.120 potentially helpful
00:36:58.920 and there are
00:37:00.140 feelings that are
00:37:01.280 more subtle
00:37:01.840 that are involved
00:37:02.800 in this process
00:37:03.420 like the feeling
00:37:04.740 of certainty
00:37:05.500 or the feeling
00:37:06.360 of uncertainty
00:37:07.060 those are not
00:37:08.480 purely cognitive
00:37:09.620 experiences
00:37:11.120 they have some
00:37:11.860 kind of a
00:37:12.700 feeling component
00:37:13.920 that can help
00:37:14.940 increase the
00:37:16.020 saliency
00:37:16.540 of those
00:37:18.300 thought processes
00:37:19.000 for us
00:37:19.540 well yeah
00:37:20.680 as your own
00:37:21.820 colleague
00:37:23.060 boss
00:37:23.640 mentor
00:37:24.180 Antonio
00:37:24.660 Damasio
00:37:25.220 has demonstrated
00:37:26.560 this classical
00:37:28.380 split between
00:37:29.200 reason and
00:37:29.880 emotion
00:37:30.300 doesn't make
00:37:31.440 any sense
00:37:31.980 I mean just
00:37:32.420 neurologically
00:37:33.100 speaking
00:37:33.480 and when
00:37:34.700 people have
00:37:35.460 specific injuries
00:37:37.400 to the
00:37:37.900 orbital frontal
00:37:38.980 cortex
00:37:39.360 and thereafter
00:37:41.660 can't feel
00:37:43.760 the implications
00:37:44.720 of otherwise
00:37:46.740 knowledge they
00:37:47.720 otherwise seem
00:37:48.420 to have
00:37:49.060 they can't make
00:37:50.260 that knowledge
00:37:51.140 behaviorally relevant
00:37:52.740 and operative
00:37:53.940 there's a kind of
00:37:55.020 classic gambling
00:37:55.820 tasks where
00:37:56.660 people seem to
00:37:58.180 know the right
00:37:58.600 strategy but
00:37:59.340 continually bet
00:38:00.340 unwisely because
00:38:01.280 they can't make
00:38:01.920 the right strategy
00:38:02.760 guide their
00:38:04.000 behavior
00:38:05.060 so it is an
00:38:06.680 interesting problem
00:38:07.640 feeling states
00:38:09.740 are part of
00:38:10.740 our cognitive
00:38:11.780 apparatus
00:38:13.400 the feeling of
00:38:14.320 certainty and
00:38:15.000 the flip side
00:38:15.900 the feeling of
00:38:16.580 doubt
00:38:16.900 they're not
00:38:17.800 dispensable and
00:38:18.880 yet they can
00:38:19.580 also become
00:38:20.180 uncoupled to
00:38:21.860 the legitimate
00:38:23.520 modes of
00:38:24.960 thought that
00:38:25.640 should deliver
00:38:26.620 certainty and
00:38:28.020 doubt
00:38:28.360 in some ways
00:38:29.580 they're orthogonal
00:38:30.260 to cognition
00:38:31.500 and in some
00:38:32.280 ways they're
00:38:32.680 indispensable
00:38:33.220 for it
00:38:34.560 the red flag
00:38:35.760 for me is
00:38:36.860 when you
00:38:37.920 realize that
00:38:38.700 you want
00:38:39.520 reality to
00:38:41.100 be a certain
00:38:41.560 way and
00:38:42.680 you're trying
00:38:43.460 to convince
00:38:44.280 yourself that
00:38:45.580 it is that
00:38:46.040 way I mean
00:38:46.480 there's a reason
00:38:47.040 why wishful
00:38:48.380 thinking and
00:38:49.840 obvious bias
00:38:51.420 in the direction
00:38:52.680 one is arguing
00:38:53.720 for conflicts
00:38:55.120 of interest
00:38:55.860 this goes by
00:38:57.220 you know
00:38:57.700 under many
00:38:58.580 framings
00:38:59.120 there's a reason
00:38:59.820 why all of
00:39:00.400 that is
00:39:00.800 stigmatized
00:39:01.680 when it comes
00:39:02.180 time to think
00:39:03.160 clearly about
00:39:03.820 what's going
00:39:04.400 on in the
00:39:04.740 world
00:39:04.960 that's right
00:39:05.980 wanting something
00:39:07.020 is absolute
00:39:07.840 poison to
00:39:08.660 the process
00:39:09.340 of trying to
00:39:10.080 find the
00:39:10.420 truth and
00:39:10.840 that's why
00:39:11.320 we have all
00:39:11.780 these mechanisms
00:39:12.440 within the
00:39:13.060 scientific method
00:39:13.860 to try to
00:39:14.440 eliminate the
00:39:15.740 effects of
00:39:16.220 those things
00:39:17.040 and you know
00:39:18.200 just to
00:39:18.700 emphasize one
00:39:20.040 of the other
00:39:20.480 things you
00:39:21.200 talked about
00:39:21.620 earlier it's
00:39:22.180 really hard
00:39:22.900 to underestimate
00:39:23.740 the effects
00:39:26.020 of wanting
00:39:27.300 things to
00:39:27.820 remain the
00:39:28.220 same in our
00:39:28.580 social relationships
00:39:29.360 I mean the
00:39:30.140 stakes can be
00:39:30.740 so high for
00:39:31.360 some of these
00:39:31.800 decisions that
00:39:33.440 it's virtually
00:39:33.940 impossible for
00:39:34.700 us to change
00:39:35.760 our minds
00:39:36.160 I talked to
00:39:37.080 someone who
00:39:38.520 was a career
00:39:40.080 political analyst
00:39:41.440 and worked in
00:39:42.940 the Bush
00:39:43.240 administration
00:39:43.860 and Reagan
00:39:45.240 if you'd like
00:39:51.340 to continue
00:39:51.780 listening to this
00:39:52.380 conversation
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