Making Sense - Sam Harris - #277 — How Does the War in Ukraine End？

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.

00:00:08.880 This is Sam Harris.

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00:00:45.980 Okay, well this is yet another episode

00:00:47.880 in what is becoming a series

00:00:49.880 on the Russian war in Ukraine.

00:00:53.040 Like almost everyone else,

00:00:54.400 I'm still thinking a lot about this.

00:00:57.940 Not just for what's happening in Ukraine,

00:00:59.720 but for the risk it poses for the rest of the world.

00:01:04.380 We're in, I think, the seventh week of the war.

00:01:08.240 And as you'll hear, I find myself still somewhat confused

00:01:10.980 about what we should and shouldn't be doing in response.

00:01:14.060 To help me sort it out this time,

00:01:16.560 I have brought on Ian Bremmer.

00:01:19.220 Ian's been on the podcast before.

00:01:21.540 He is a political scientist who founded the Eurasia Group,

00:01:25.560 which is a political risk research and consulting firm.

00:01:29.240 Ian is the author of 11 books.

00:01:31.400 He has a new one coming out next month,

00:01:33.940 titled The Power of Crisis,

00:01:36.320 How Three Threats and Our Response

00:01:38.780 Will Change the World.

00:01:40.900 He holds a doctorate in political science from Stanford,

00:01:44.060 and he was once the youngest ever national fellow

00:01:46.800 at the Hoover Institution.

00:01:48.800 Anyway, it's always great to talk to Ian.

00:01:51.180 Here we cover the state of the war

00:01:53.140 and the state of our response,

00:01:55.440 sanctions,

00:01:56.700 Biden's gaffe,

00:01:58.200 or so-called gaffe,

00:01:59.420 about regime change,

00:02:01.220 fear of nuclear war,

00:02:03.520 the logic of mutually assured destruction,

00:02:06.120 the role of China in all this,

00:02:08.140 the most likely outcomes to the war as Ian sees them.

00:02:12.540 Anyway, the world is a mess,

00:02:14.140 and we are here to talk about it.

00:02:16.840 And now I bring you Ian Bremmer.

00:02:25.080 I am here with Ian Bremmer.

00:02:26.980 Ian, thanks for joining me again.

00:02:28.560 Sam, great to be back with you.

00:02:30.000 So, you know,

00:02:31.700 I thought we're going to talk about

00:02:33.600 the issue that is really the issue of the day,

00:02:36.760 and it's been the issue of the day for the last,

00:02:38.600 I guess, seven weeks now.

00:02:41.080 We can talk about anything else that might be pressing,

00:02:43.620 but certainly the ongoing war in Ukraine is pressing.

00:02:48.240 Before we jump in,

00:02:49.440 just remind people what your background is.

00:02:52.460 What do you spend your days doing?

00:02:54.280 I'm a political scientist,

00:02:56.120 and I started this firm that does global political science about,

00:03:02.000 oh, I don't know,

00:03:02.560 24 years ago now.

00:03:04.100 I look at global issues,

00:03:06.060 but my background actually is on Russia and Ukraine.

00:03:11.420 My PhD actually spent a year living across Ukraine,

00:03:15.660 looking at issues of Russians living there,

00:03:17.380 kind of back in 1992,

00:03:18.560 293 for heck's sake.

00:03:21.600 And so this is something that,

00:03:23.680 even though I haven't spent as much time on it

00:03:25.560 in the last 10 years,

00:03:26.900 it has,

00:03:27.780 you never quite let it go.

00:03:30.120 Great.

00:03:30.720 Well, so this is your wheelhouse.

00:03:32.760 So I've had two conversations so far

00:03:35.360 about this ongoing topic.

00:03:38.700 I mean, it's evolved a little bit since I started.

00:03:40.920 I had an early conversation with Gary Kasparov,

00:03:43.500 and then I had one with Yuval Noah Harari

00:03:45.600 taking different aspects of this,

00:03:49.400 but it's amazing to see how public opinion

00:03:53.060 domestically and abroad gets blown around.

00:03:56.440 And in the background here

00:03:58.360 is this completely understandable fear,

00:04:02.480 strangely resurrected by these events,

00:04:05.320 but it really should have been a fear

00:04:06.420 we've had for our entire lives

00:04:08.580 of World War III, right?

00:04:11.520 Doing something so stupid or ungovernable

00:04:15.040 as to start the slide

00:04:17.020 into an exchange of nuclear weapons

00:04:19.760 or some other catastrophe of that magnitude.

00:04:24.660 And that's really,

00:04:25.320 that's making it hard to recommend things

00:04:29.220 in any kind of straightforward way.

00:04:30.760 And so like when I had Gary Kasparov

00:04:32.240 on the podcast,

00:04:33.220 the implications of what he was saying,

00:04:35.300 I don't remember him saying it

00:04:36.940 as starkly as this,

00:04:38.060 but it was just, you know,

00:04:39.440 now's the time to have a conventional war

00:04:43.460 with this crazy dictator, Vladimir Putin.

00:04:46.680 I mean, that's just,

00:04:47.360 if you're not going to draw the line right here,

00:04:49.880 you really, NATO doesn't mean anything.

00:04:52.300 So all of this squeamishness around it,

00:04:54.300 you know, enforcing a no-fly zone

00:04:56.260 and the implications of all of that,

00:04:58.060 that kind of talk is for cowards, right?

00:05:00.380 I mean, I'm giving this more topspin,

00:05:02.260 much more topspin than Gary gave it,

00:05:04.480 but that was certainly the kind of implication

00:05:07.160 one could have drawn

00:05:08.320 from his side of the conversation.

00:05:10.240 And of course, many people find that

00:05:11.580 absolutely terrifying.

00:05:13.720 And we have in, you know,

00:05:15.020 domestically a kind of,

00:05:16.940 you know, horseshoe structure to our politics

00:05:19.360 where you have people on the far left

00:05:21.440 and the far right more or less agreeing

00:05:23.640 that we should go nowhere near

00:05:26.500 talk of that kind, right?

00:05:28.220 This is just, it's insane.

00:05:30.560 You know, we should, you know,

00:05:31.260 so essentially someone like Noam Chomsky

00:05:33.380 and someone like Tucker Carlson

00:05:34.920 could be expected to agree on this topic,

00:05:37.360 which is the U.S. has no business

00:05:39.700 getting mired in a conventional war

00:05:42.860 that could go anywhere near Armageddon

00:05:45.540 and we should be rethinking

00:05:47.540 all of our promises to the rest of the world

00:05:50.120 and clean up our own house

00:05:51.640 and all of that.

00:05:53.780 So before we get into the minutiae here,

00:05:56.680 I just want to get,

00:05:57.700 just take your temperature

00:05:58.460 on the big picture here.

00:06:00.320 How concerned are you about

00:06:03.380 all of that

00:06:03.920 and what through line have you found

00:06:06.120 in terms of, you know,

00:06:07.000 if you were in charge

00:06:07.940 and could actually make decisions

00:06:09.420 up to this point,

00:06:11.080 what do you think

00:06:11.540 you would have decided to do?

00:06:13.860 So I like your frame, Sam.

00:06:16.040 I think that Gary,

00:06:18.400 I know Gary Kasparov,

00:06:19.640 I mean, anyone in the field does.

00:06:21.400 He has a very strongly held

00:06:25.160 ideological position

00:06:27.040 vis-a-vis Russia

00:06:28.300 and he comes to it honestly.

00:06:29.740 If you think about the way

00:06:31.420 he's been treated,

00:06:32.760 you know, sort of as a former opposition member,

00:06:34.800 incredibly brave as well

00:06:36.260 on the ground

00:06:37.160 in the former Soviet Union and Russia,

00:06:40.460 I mean, there's a reason

00:06:41.000 he's not there right now.

00:06:42.720 And so I don't want to criticize

00:06:45.340 his feelings about Russia

00:06:49.300 and his courage

00:06:50.200 and his bravery about Russia.

00:06:51.380 I don't think he's an armchair pundit

00:06:53.740 that's saying we should go to war

00:06:56.320 and is willing to send your kids there.

00:06:58.560 I think this is a guy

00:06:59.620 who has the courage

00:07:01.460 of his convictions,

00:07:03.220 but I am very, very adamantly

00:07:06.540 not with him, analytically.

00:07:09.000 I mean, for example,

00:07:10.000 you said that it wouldn't mean,

00:07:11.780 NATO doesn't mean anything

00:07:13.020 if we don't have

00:07:13.940 a conventional war with Russia.

00:07:15.420 No, no, NATO means something

00:07:16.820 precisely because we're not having

00:07:18.480 a conventional war with Russia.

00:07:20.160 Ukraine isn't in NATO

00:07:21.400 and we have not given them

00:07:23.840 even a membership action plan.

00:07:25.340 And by the way,

00:07:26.540 nobody seriously thinks we should.

00:07:29.580 That was true before the crisis

00:07:31.820 and it's true now.

00:07:34.080 So, I mean, the very fact

00:07:35.600 that we are saying

00:07:36.920 we are not prepared

00:07:38.220 to actively defend

00:07:39.920 a non-NATO ally

00:07:42.080 and we are prepared

00:07:43.600 to defend NATO allies.

00:07:45.180 President Biden said it

00:07:46.480 when he was in Warsaw a week ago.

00:07:48.520 Does anyone believe that?

00:07:49.560 I mean, does anyone believe

00:07:50.320 we would defend Lithuania?

00:07:52.580 Yes.

00:07:53.200 We have troops on the ground

00:07:54.640 in the Baltic states

00:07:55.700 and I think people

00:07:57.480 absolutely believe

00:07:58.720 that the United States

00:08:00.240 and not just the United States,

00:08:01.520 they believe that NATO

00:08:02.900 would actually defend

00:08:04.920 collective security

00:08:06.100 other NATO countries.

00:08:09.120 I think the amount

00:08:10.260 that has been done

00:08:11.260 for Ukraine,

00:08:12.660 despite the fact

00:08:13.480 that they aren't a NATO member,

00:08:15.420 is kind of astonishing.

00:08:16.600 It's certainly shocking to Putin.

00:08:19.420 I think it's shocking

00:08:20.680 to Xi Jinping.

00:08:22.720 And here I'm talking

00:08:23.540 about the destruction

00:08:24.840 of the Russian economy,

00:08:27.220 including freezing

00:08:28.500 a majority

00:08:29.340 of their central bank assets.

00:08:30.940 There was no one credible

00:08:32.180 on this issue

00:08:32.820 that believed

00:08:33.300 that the United States

00:08:34.300 would do that

00:08:35.380 before this invasion occurred.

00:08:37.840 The level of military support

00:08:39.940 that's being provided

00:08:40.900 to the very bravely

00:08:43.100 fighting Ukrainians,

00:08:44.420 as well as the intelligence support

00:08:46.560 that's being provided

00:08:47.480 to the Ukrainians

00:08:48.700 as to the disposition

00:08:49.800 of Russian forces

00:08:50.800 on the ground.

00:08:51.840 And all of that

00:08:52.680 is part of the reason

00:08:53.860 why Zelensky is still there today

00:08:55.620 and part of the reason

00:08:56.960 why Putin is losing

00:08:58.200 and losing big.

00:08:59.600 So I'm quite aligned

00:09:01.880 with most of what

00:09:04.180 the NATO alliance

00:09:06.140 has done in response

00:09:07.960 to this Russian invasion

00:09:10.180 since it's happened.

00:09:11.640 I'm not aligned

00:09:12.140 with many things

00:09:12.860 that happened before

00:09:13.820 the invasion

00:09:14.880 that got us

00:09:15.520 into this position,

00:09:16.260 and you and I

00:09:16.660 can talk about that.

00:09:18.220 But,

00:09:18.700 the challenge

00:09:19.520 that we have right now

00:09:21.660 is that Putin's misjudgment

00:09:23.440 was so vast

00:09:24.460 that his position

00:09:26.660 and the position

00:09:27.460 of his country

00:09:28.240 under any scenario

00:09:30.180 is going to be vastly worse

00:09:32.400 than it was

00:09:33.600 before he invaded.

00:09:35.960 And yet,

00:09:36.420 he's probably still

00:09:37.180 going to be in power.

00:09:37.960 He's very likely

00:09:38.800 still going to be in power.

00:09:40.300 And so,

00:09:40.820 and he's still going to have

00:09:41.600 6,000 nuclear warheads.

00:09:43.580 And this is not just

00:09:44.740 a conflict

00:09:45.320 between Russia and Ukraine.

00:09:46.600 It is a conflict

00:09:48.380 between Russia and NATO.

00:09:50.020 It will be a conflict

00:09:51.600 between Russia and NATO,

00:09:52.660 even if we get to the point,

00:09:54.060 hopefully soon,

00:09:55.300 that we can have a ceasefire,

00:09:57.040 that we can freeze

00:09:57.700 the conflict on the ground

00:09:58.980 in Ukraine.

00:10:00.140 And that's going to be

00:10:01.900 a hard thing to manage.

00:10:03.100 And that makes things

00:10:04.760 like another Cuban

00:10:05.580 missile crisis

00:10:06.560 thinkable,

00:10:07.960 even though you and I

00:10:09.500 clearly had hoped

00:10:10.840 that 30 years ago

00:10:12.740 when the wall

00:10:13.300 came down,

00:10:14.240 we had a peace dividend

00:10:15.600 and we could stop

00:10:16.820 worrying about that.

00:10:17.680 I mean,

00:10:17.860 the reality of this war

00:10:19.500 in Ukraine

00:10:20.320 is that the peace dividend

00:10:21.980 is over.

00:10:23.320 And that's a truly tragic thing.

00:10:26.400 Maybe define peace dividend.

00:10:28.520 I think,

00:10:28.940 I mean,

00:10:29.140 that phrase has been spoken

00:10:31.760 a lot of late,

00:10:33.260 but it's not something

00:10:34.140 anyone has heard,

00:10:35.720 I think,

00:10:36.580 in living memory.

00:10:38.040 What do we mean

00:10:38.660 by peace dividend?

00:10:39.860 We mean that

00:10:40.540 we used to have a Cold War

00:10:42.040 in every corner

00:10:44.540 of the world

00:10:45.200 and we fought

00:10:46.500 over every piece of land

00:10:48.000 and it was either ours

00:10:49.040 or it was theirs.

00:10:50.000 It was Warsaw Pact

00:10:51.000 or it was NATO.

00:10:51.780 It was aligned

00:10:52.200 with the United States

00:10:53.000 or not.

00:10:53.400 There's a global policy

00:10:54.380 of containment.

00:10:56.120 And that was more important

00:10:58.760 than any idea

00:11:00.340 of globalization.

00:11:01.900 And when the Soviet Union

00:11:03.920 collapsed,

00:11:05.520 most importantly for Europe,

00:11:07.380 the EU expanded

00:11:08.600 right up to Russian borders.

00:11:10.280 NATO expanded

00:11:11.080 right up to Russian borders.

00:11:13.020 And the belief was

00:11:14.580 that you didn't have to pay

00:11:16.260 as much attention

00:11:17.040 to national security.

00:11:19.000 You didn't have to spend

00:11:20.040 as much money on defense

00:11:21.440 and that you could focus

00:11:23.320 on the social contract

00:11:24.680 and on economic policy

00:11:26.440 and you could build

00:11:27.340 your countries

00:11:28.020 and that we didn't have

00:11:29.000 to worry about World War III.

00:11:31.420 Now,

00:11:31.860 the Americans,

00:11:33.060 of course,

00:11:33.680 pivoted more sharply

00:11:34.700 from that

00:11:35.340 after the attack

00:11:36.740 on 9-11.

00:11:37.480 But the Europeans

00:11:38.720 never did.

00:11:39.600 And of course,

00:11:40.340 under Clinton

00:11:41.660 and under Bush

00:11:43.000 and under Obama

00:11:44.280 and under Trump

00:11:45.540 and under Biden,

00:11:46.700 the Americans

00:11:47.260 have been trying

00:11:48.080 to convince the Germans

00:11:49.160 to spend more money

00:11:50.100 on their own defense

00:11:51.020 and they refused.

00:11:53.020 But Putin,

00:11:54.500 in five weeks,

00:11:56.040 has managed

00:11:57.140 to convince the Germans

00:11:58.140 to do precisely that.

00:11:59.760 And that is structural,

00:12:01.020 that no matter

00:12:01.580 what happens in Ukraine,

00:12:03.480 the Europeans

00:12:04.100 are going to focus

00:12:05.520 on national security

00:12:06.960 and defense

00:12:07.720 as a top priority

00:12:09.480 for the foreseeable future.

00:12:11.040 This will be

00:12:11.580 a generational

00:12:13.120 coming of age

00:12:14.840 for anyone living in Europe.

00:12:17.200 In the way that 9-11

00:12:18.200 and the wall coming down

00:12:19.560 has been for a lot of Americans,

00:12:21.640 this will,

00:12:22.640 this war in Ukraine

00:12:24.060 will have that impact

00:12:25.040 on the entirety

00:12:26.140 of the European continent

00:12:27.960 and the EU

00:12:28.880 is the world's largest

00:12:29.760 common market.

00:12:30.480 It matters a lot.

00:12:31.460 And I guess,

00:12:33.000 given the necessity

00:12:35.660 of the moment,

00:12:36.380 we think that's a good thing,

00:12:37.920 albeit an unfortunate one,

00:12:39.400 it'd be great

00:12:39.840 to not need

00:12:40.840 to think about

00:12:42.740 European countries

00:12:44.520 individually

00:12:45.500 arming up,

00:12:47.320 but it seems like

00:12:49.040 they should have done it

00:12:50.200 before this

00:12:50.740 and we might not be here

00:12:51.700 if they had done it

00:12:52.460 before this.

00:12:53.420 I think that

00:12:54.760 it is a good thing

00:12:56.580 that Europe

00:12:57.720 is together.

00:12:58.980 No question.

00:12:59.720 And by the way,

00:13:00.100 Europe was coming

00:13:00.960 more together

00:13:01.980 over the last decade.

00:13:04.180 The nadir

00:13:05.080 was the Greek crisis

00:13:07.760 and the EU

00:13:09.060 almost falling apart

00:13:10.500 back in 2009, 2010.

00:13:13.460 But since then,

00:13:14.160 we had Brexit

00:13:14.880 and Brexit

00:13:15.520 clearly taught the EU

00:13:17.260 that none of them

00:13:18.780 wanted to go through that.

00:13:20.100 It helped strengthen

00:13:20.940 the core European membership.

00:13:23.720 We had the pandemic

00:13:24.620 and with the pandemic,

00:13:26.160 a recognition

00:13:26.720 that the wealthy countries

00:13:27.880 needed to actually ensure

00:13:29.760 that the poor countries

00:13:30.640 were taken care of

00:13:31.700 and a massive

00:13:32.700 fiscal transfer

00:13:34.000 from countries like Germany

00:13:35.380 and the Netherlands

00:13:36.180 to countries like Greece

00:13:38.120 and Bulgaria

00:13:38.840 and Hungary

00:13:40.380 and Poland,

00:13:41.400 even countries that weren't

00:13:42.560 as aligned

00:13:43.860 with the EU

00:13:44.560 at all politically.

00:13:46.320 And then,

00:13:46.880 of course,

00:13:47.300 you have the Russian invasion

00:13:48.500 of Ukraine

00:13:49.340 where a country

00:13:50.580 like Poland

00:13:51.100 and Hungary

00:13:51.800 are actually doing

00:13:53.040 the leading.

00:13:54.080 They're taking

00:13:54.440 the most refugees

00:13:55.440 on the ground.

00:13:56.800 They're deeply concerned

00:13:57.940 about what this means

00:13:58.760 for their security

00:13:59.540 and it's bringing

00:14:00.660 the EU strongly together.

00:14:02.960 But, you know,

00:14:03.520 of course,

00:14:04.040 it's also happening

00:14:05.160 precisely because

00:14:06.580 there will be

00:14:07.260 a new Iron Curtain.

00:14:08.860 And on the other side

00:14:09.780 of the Iron Curtain

00:14:10.520 will not be Eastern Europe.

00:14:12.200 It'll be Russia,

00:14:13.980 Belarus,

00:14:15.140 a small rump piece

00:14:16.800 of Russian-occupied Ukraine

00:14:18.560 and a breakaway

00:14:20.320 Russian Republic

00:14:21.780 inside Moldova,

00:14:23.280 something probably

00:14:24.080 no one's talked about

00:14:24.940 on your podcast before.

00:14:26.000 And that is,

00:14:27.420 that's not a fight.

00:14:28.780 That is a disaster.

00:14:30.400 That is a small group

00:14:31.820 of population,

00:14:33.440 badly treated,

00:14:34.820 kleptocratic governance,

00:14:36.240 massively authoritarian

00:14:37.240 and heading for ruin.

00:14:38.920 But with a hell of,

00:14:40.280 but armed to the teeth,

00:14:42.340 armed to the teeth

00:14:43.200 and led by Putin.

00:14:45.000 And that's,

00:14:45.560 that is when people ask me

00:14:46.660 what's going to happen,

00:14:47.560 how does this end?

00:14:48.800 My view is

00:14:49.360 it's not going to end.

00:14:50.820 What do you mean end?

00:14:51.900 What's going to happen

00:14:52.640 is we're going to have

00:14:53.460 a much more unstable

00:14:54.940 global order

00:14:55.860 with this really angry

00:14:58.220 sort of

00:14:59.820 Russia

00:15:01.460 faux empire

00:15:02.800 that is,

00:15:04.180 that has been cut off

00:15:05.760 from the West

00:15:07.020 and,

00:15:08.220 and is angry about it.

00:15:09.840 That is,

00:15:10.500 that's where we're heading.

00:15:11.800 Okay,

00:15:11.940 well let me,

00:15:12.260 let me kind of

00:15:13.240 cycle through this morass

00:15:14.960 again

00:15:15.860 because this is,

00:15:17.040 I,

00:15:17.500 unlike many topics

00:15:19.000 I touch here,

00:15:20.460 I feel genuinely

00:15:21.620 confused about

00:15:22.960 what I think

00:15:24.340 we should do,

00:15:25.080 what I think is,

00:15:26.340 would be the likely outcomes

00:15:27.980 of any given set of choices

00:15:30.080 we might make

00:15:30.760 and it's just,

00:15:31.740 it's,

00:15:32.080 it's uncomfortable

00:15:32.580 to be confused about

00:15:33.740 what is perhaps

00:15:34.820 the most important risk

00:15:36.640 we run

00:15:37.200 as a civilization.

00:15:38.500 on the one hand

00:15:39.560 it seems to me

00:15:40.540 totally untenable

00:15:41.820 that we still live

00:15:44.280 in a world

00:15:44.720 where a single

00:15:45.960 lunatic,

00:15:47.400 you know,

00:15:47.580 however amenable

00:15:48.960 to a psychological

00:15:49.700 diagnosis he might be

00:15:51.220 or not,

00:15:51.720 I mean,

00:15:51.920 a single autocrat,

00:15:53.200 a single kleptocratic

00:15:54.900 maniac who has

00:15:56.720 less and less

00:15:57.460 to lose

00:15:58.200 when his back

00:15:59.360 is against the wall

00:16:00.220 can threaten

00:16:01.780 everyone in sight

00:16:03.280 with death

00:16:04.640 by fireball,

00:16:05.780 right?

00:16:06.060 And so we have a

00:16:08.000 crazy autocrat problem

00:16:10.240 that globally speaking

00:16:12.220 we have to solve.

00:16:13.840 The technology

00:16:14.420 is too powerful

00:16:15.200 to have one person

00:16:16.800 who can decide

00:16:18.240 to hold the entire globe

00:16:20.180 for ransom

00:16:20.820 is just not a stable

00:16:23.020 situation for us

00:16:24.180 and we have to figure out

00:16:25.380 some way

00:16:25.880 to put that,

00:16:27.300 you know,

00:16:27.500 to close that version

00:16:28.800 of Pandora's box

00:16:29.820 and I could be convinced,

00:16:32.600 I think,

00:16:33.080 that this is the moment

00:16:34.360 to do that,

00:16:35.300 right?

00:16:35.580 Yes,

00:16:36.040 we're running a risk

00:16:37.300 of him going

00:16:38.520 completely berserk

00:16:39.480 but he's not a jihadist,

00:16:42.720 right?

00:16:42.960 He's not ideological

00:16:43.920 in the way

00:16:44.740 that would make him

00:16:46.080 patently suicidal.

00:16:47.660 He's somebody

00:16:48.400 who has been rational

00:16:51.200 or, you know,

00:16:52.000 apparently rational

00:16:53.460 up until this moment

00:16:54.460 and in this frame of mind

00:16:57.320 I'm thinking,

00:16:58.240 yeah,

00:16:58.580 you know,

00:16:59.000 the distinction

00:17:00.100 between Lithuania

00:17:01.000 and Ukraine

00:17:01.540 is less interesting

00:17:02.560 to me.

00:17:03.880 Why not really arm

00:17:05.680 the Ukrainians,

00:17:06.520 you know,

00:17:07.040 fully?

00:17:07.620 Why not possibly

00:17:09.120 enforce a no-fly zone

00:17:11.280 for humanitarian purposes?

00:17:13.700 Why not play the edge

00:17:14.820 of this

00:17:15.320 and unleash

00:17:17.500 100% of all

00:17:19.100 possible sanctions

00:17:20.140 so that we truly

00:17:21.460 beggar Russia?

00:17:23.000 I mean,

00:17:23.160 the idea that we're still,

00:17:24.060 that the Europeans

00:17:24.560 are still buying gas

00:17:25.520 from him

00:17:25.960 seems just ludicrous

00:17:27.940 and why not

00:17:30.060 maximize the chance

00:17:31.380 that there could be

00:17:31.860 some internal revolt

00:17:32.900 against him,

00:17:33.980 right?

00:17:34.280 I mean,

00:17:34.580 this is really,

00:17:35.860 the person who would

00:17:36.620 solve this problem

00:17:37.800 for us in the entire world

00:17:39.220 is an assassin,

00:17:40.880 right?

00:17:41.180 I mean,

00:17:41.360 we should,

00:17:42.340 the assassination game

00:17:43.500 is the game

00:17:44.700 we should be playing here

00:17:45.640 and so,

00:17:46.740 in this frame of mind

00:17:47.860 I'm thinking,

00:17:49.080 okay,

00:17:49.420 Biden's gaffe

00:17:50.540 in, you know,

00:17:51.560 talking about regime change

00:17:53.120 is a gaffe

00:17:54.120 I can live with,

00:17:54.840 right?

00:17:55.040 Because this is the vocalization

00:17:57.840 of what every sane person

00:17:59.760 is thinking

00:18:00.380 at this moment

00:18:01.260 and is there a path here

00:18:03.740 to make such an example

00:18:05.720 of an autocrat,

00:18:07.520 right,

00:18:08.220 that closes the door

00:18:09.660 to this sort of thing

00:18:11.000 happening in the future?

00:18:12.780 I mean,

00:18:12.920 is that one possible path there?

00:18:15.380 Now, again,

00:18:15.760 I can argue the other side

00:18:17.120 of this entirely,

00:18:18.020 right,

00:18:18.240 which we will probably do

00:18:19.480 but just give me a reaction

00:18:21.140 to that fairly hawkish

00:18:22.780 frame of mind.

00:18:24.260 Well, one,

00:18:24.480 we all want Putin out,

00:18:26.260 there's no question

00:18:26.980 and if there was a way

00:18:27.900 to actually accomplish that,

00:18:30.020 I think that actually

00:18:31.460 was feasible

00:18:32.960 and didn't run

00:18:33.900 existential risks,

00:18:35.400 I think anyone

00:18:36.140 in their right mind

00:18:37.460 would be thinking about it

00:18:38.620 and Lord knows

00:18:40.200 the Russian people

00:18:40.860 have been suffering,

00:18:41.840 you know,

00:18:42.060 in some ways the most

00:18:42.980 through all of this

00:18:44.240 and I don't mean

00:18:44.940 in the last five weeks,

00:18:45.940 I mean for the last 15 years

00:18:47.540 so,

00:18:48.800 you know,

00:18:49.220 this is not a leader

00:18:50.220 who is in any way

00:18:51.040 fit for purpose

00:18:51.640 in his country.

00:18:52.260 Now,

00:18:53.360 we don't need to talk

00:18:54.480 about all the problems

00:18:55.300 that American regime change

00:18:56.900 has experienced

00:18:58.360 over the past decades

00:18:59.680 and the fact

00:19:01.140 that the Americans

00:19:01.720 being responsible

00:19:02.440 for such a thing

00:19:03.180 would not be received

00:19:04.760 well all over the world

00:19:06.140 but leaving that aside,

00:19:08.720 before we get to

00:19:10.180 what can or can't be done

00:19:11.380 to remove Putin,

00:19:12.780 let's talk about

00:19:13.400 the initial steps

00:19:14.580 that you mentioned.

00:19:15.580 You said,

00:19:15.980 well,

00:19:16.080 shouldn't we be arming

00:19:16.900 them to the teeth?

00:19:17.640 I think we're coming

00:19:19.000 very close to doing that.

00:19:20.940 The only reason,

00:19:21.980 there was an argument

00:19:22.920 inside the White House

00:19:23.980 about these MiGs.

00:19:24.900 Everyone talked about

00:19:25.800 the Polish MiGs.

00:19:26.560 Should we give them

00:19:26.860 the Polish MiGs?

00:19:27.700 There was a willingness

00:19:28.860 to do it.

00:19:30.120 It was not because

00:19:31.300 the point was

00:19:33.540 we were scared

00:19:34.180 of Putin's response.

00:19:36.100 It was an open question

00:19:37.920 about whether the Ukrainians

00:19:39.160 would be able

00:19:39.700 to fly them

00:19:40.500 and secondly,

00:19:42.580 the considered view

00:19:44.020 by the U.S. administration

00:19:46.000 that they would be knocked,

00:19:48.580 they would be blown up

00:19:49.680 before they had a chance

00:19:51.160 to fly

00:19:51.580 from whatever Ukrainian bases

00:19:53.840 they would be

00:19:54.720 running their sorties out of.

00:19:56.940 That the Russians

00:19:57.760 just have too much control

00:19:58.980 of the air

00:19:59.680 to be able

00:20:00.800 to make that work.

00:20:01.960 And the view was

00:20:03.380 that if you decide

00:20:04.720 to give the Ukrainians

00:20:06.040 after all this debate

00:20:07.280 these couple dozen MiGs

00:20:09.360 and then the Russians

00:20:10.280 blow them up,

00:20:11.420 that's worse for everybody.

00:20:12.780 It makes Zelensky look weak.

00:20:14.100 It makes the NATO

00:20:14.780 look weak.

00:20:15.200 So you shouldn't do that.

00:20:16.420 That's number one.

00:20:18.280 I think that the military support

00:20:20.260 that came from NATO

00:20:21.120 should have come sooner

00:20:22.100 and should have been stronger.

00:20:23.280 I agree with you

00:20:24.060 on that point.

00:20:24.760 I think we were late on it.

00:20:26.520 Part of the reason

00:20:27.080 we were late

00:20:27.620 is because the Europeans

00:20:29.060 were completely unconvinced

00:20:30.760 by American intelligence

00:20:32.460 that war was coming.

00:20:34.260 And the Ukrainians,

00:20:35.140 of course,

00:20:35.640 were actively undermining it.

00:20:37.360 They were saying,

00:20:38.200 you know,

00:20:38.580 you're catastrophists.

00:20:40.260 You're putting us in a box.

00:20:41.620 You're making this more likely.

00:20:43.880 You know,

00:20:44.080 everyone calmed down.

00:20:45.100 That was Zelensky saying that.

00:20:46.560 That didn't make life easier either

00:20:47.920 before the war actually started.

00:20:50.060 I think that on the economic side,

00:20:52.340 you know,

00:20:52.640 you said that it's ludicrous

00:20:54.660 that the Europeans

00:20:55.440 are buying gas from Russia.

00:20:58.040 I'm going to take

00:20:58.880 the other side of that.

00:21:00.400 I will say that,

00:21:01.340 let's keep in mind,

00:21:02.320 the Chinese,

00:21:03.520 the Indians,

00:21:04.440 I mean,

00:21:04.720 you know,

00:21:04.960 every developing country

00:21:06.140 around the world

00:21:06.780 is doing some business

00:21:07.720 with the Russians.

00:21:08.340 And in fact,

00:21:09.800 the Indian government

00:21:11.100 not only just,

00:21:12.080 remember,

00:21:12.480 our friends,

00:21:13.800 you know,

00:21:14.200 erstwhile allies

00:21:15.160 in the Quad

00:21:15.860 not only welcomed

00:21:17.800 the foreign minister,

00:21:19.300 the Russian foreign minister,

00:21:20.380 Lavrov,

00:21:21.240 to Delhi,

00:21:21.800 but he actually met

00:21:23.260 with Prime Minister Modi.

00:21:24.720 What the hell is that?

00:21:26.640 Like,

00:21:26.940 that's a problem,

00:21:28.300 right?

00:21:28.800 While the Europeans

00:21:29.680 are actually doing

00:21:31.680 everything they can,

00:21:32.880 they're the ones

00:21:33.760 who have all of the

00:21:34.880 economic dependence

00:21:35.820 on Russia.

00:21:36.780 Many of those countries

00:21:37.620 with over 50%

00:21:38.860 of their energy

00:21:39.420 coming from Russia

00:21:40.080 and they are taking it

00:21:41.340 in the teeth

00:21:42.200 to unwind that

00:21:43.720 as fast

00:21:44.420 as humanly possible.

00:21:46.200 The Germans are saying

00:21:47.220 that they will have

00:21:48.000 two-thirds

00:21:48.760 of their dependence

00:21:49.740 on Russian energy

00:21:51.360 gone by next winter

00:21:53.260 and I think

00:21:53.940 they'll get close

00:21:54.700 to coming there.

00:21:55.780 They just put

00:21:56.380 an emergency in place

00:21:57.640 that will allow

00:21:58.140 for rationing

00:21:58.880 to start

00:21:59.320 of the German people.

00:22:01.140 Now,

00:22:01.280 I mean,

00:22:01.400 we're saying in the US

00:22:02.280 we're willing

00:22:02.680 to take higher gas prices

00:22:03.900 but the Europeans

00:22:05.060 after decades

00:22:06.000 of ignoring this problem

00:22:07.220 and of decades

00:22:07.960 of wrongly

00:22:09.840 allowing their policy

00:22:11.540 to become beholden

00:22:12.880 on core strategic supply

00:22:15.480 from Russia

00:22:15.960 which they never

00:22:16.520 should have done,

00:22:17.400 they are now

00:22:18.020 en masse

00:22:18.920 all together

00:22:19.980 moving away

00:22:21.120 as fast

00:22:21.740 as they possibly can.

00:22:23.240 I actually think

00:22:23.980 the Europeans

00:22:24.460 are doing a lot here

00:22:25.540 and I think

00:22:26.520 the Biden administration

00:22:27.360 is trying very hard

00:22:29.640 to,

00:22:30.700 after a disastrous

00:22:32.120 execution

00:22:33.080 of the Afghanistan

00:22:34.140 withdrawal

00:22:34.740 and after big

00:22:36.180 embarrassment

00:22:36.740 on AUKUS

00:22:37.580 and after four years

00:22:39.100 of America first

00:22:40.000 where the Europeans

00:22:40.780 really didn't think

00:22:41.740 they could trust

00:22:42.220 the Americans at all,

00:22:43.480 I think Biden

00:22:44.040 has actually managed

00:22:45.180 a pretty strong

00:22:46.700 coordinated

00:22:48.420 policy set,

00:22:50.320 not easy to do

00:22:51.320 where the Europeans

00:22:52.020 are sacrificing

00:22:52.740 a lot more

00:22:53.380 but we're leading

00:22:54.300 and if that means

00:22:55.860 that the sanctions

00:22:56.460 have taken a little longer

00:22:57.480 and that means

00:22:57.920 the weapons

00:22:58.320 have taken a little longer,

00:22:59.500 I mean,

00:22:59.660 I'm prepared

00:23:00.800 to make that trade.

00:23:02.840 So that addresses,

00:23:03.800 I think that addresses

00:23:04.560 everything you were

00:23:05.320 talking about

00:23:05.980 before we talk

00:23:07.240 about regime change

00:23:08.000 in Russia.

00:23:08.640 So you're saying

00:23:09.020 that the Europeans

00:23:09.680 are still buying gas

00:23:10.760 because it's just

00:23:12.120 not actually

00:23:13.140 feasible for them

00:23:14.880 to zero out

00:23:16.540 their dependence

00:23:17.140 on Russia today.

00:23:18.600 They actually need

00:23:19.680 the energy

00:23:20.760 and they can't get it

00:23:21.620 some other way.

00:23:22.600 They are working

00:23:23.300 so much harder

00:23:25.060 and faster

00:23:25.720 to get themselves

00:23:27.200 out of that dependence

00:23:28.680 than anyone

00:23:29.540 would have expected

00:23:30.280 and I think

00:23:31.200 that within three years

00:23:32.360 by the end of 2024

00:23:33.540 there will be

00:23:34.580 no more Russian

00:23:35.820 energy delivery

00:23:37.060 to Europe

00:23:37.900 and I think

00:23:39.240 it'll be permanent.

00:23:40.440 I think they're

00:23:40.800 cutting it off.

00:23:42.020 I think it's a very,

00:23:42.920 very big deal.

00:23:43.880 But so that's

00:23:44.680 definitely in line

00:23:45.400 with what I,

00:23:46.520 this half of me,

00:23:47.520 this, you know,

00:23:48.400 sinister half of me

00:23:49.500 thinks,

00:23:49.960 the devil on my left shoulder

00:23:51.120 thinks should happen.

00:23:52.440 I mean,

00:23:52.660 you know,

00:23:53.120 why not simply say,

00:23:54.160 okay,

00:23:54.460 you broke your relationship

00:23:55.780 with the liberal

00:23:57.620 world order

00:23:58.580 The West.

00:23:59.560 The West, yeah.

00:24:00.480 And there is no path

00:24:01.400 back, right?

00:24:02.260 Like you're,

00:24:02.620 it's like you're

00:24:04.000 going to get out

00:24:04.480 of Ukraine eventually.

00:24:06.020 The ruble is going

00:24:06.840 to be,

00:24:07.180 you know,

00:24:07.600 used for toilet paper

00:24:09.140 and we're going

00:24:11.240 to destroy you

00:24:12.060 economically.

00:24:13.260 Europe is going

00:24:13.640 to get off

00:24:14.160 your pipeline

00:24:15.080 as quickly

00:24:15.640 as possible

00:24:16.320 and you don't

00:24:17.700 make anything

00:24:18.460 anyone else wants

00:24:19.620 apart from fertilizer.

00:24:21.080 We're going

00:24:21.560 to solve that problem

00:24:22.400 too and you are

00:24:23.520 now the new

00:24:24.380 North Korea.

00:24:25.720 Congratulations.

00:24:26.080 Yeah,

00:24:27.000 so the last

00:24:28.400 few sentences

00:24:29.220 are where you

00:24:30.100 veered away

00:24:31.000 from reality

00:24:31.860 because they can't

00:24:33.120 become North Korea.

00:24:34.440 They won't become

00:24:35.080 autarkic

00:24:35.720 because they have

00:24:36.700 an enormous amount

00:24:37.840 of stuff

00:24:38.580 that lots of countries

00:24:39.780 around the world

00:24:40.380 will buy

00:24:40.900 and as I mentioned,

00:24:42.140 the Indian prime minister

00:24:43.800 just met

00:24:45.320 with the Russian

00:24:46.620 foreign minister.

00:24:47.480 He didn't need

00:24:48.020 to do that.

00:24:48.580 He did

00:24:49.180 and it's not just India,

00:24:50.820 it's China.

00:24:51.260 China is going

00:24:51.820 to be the largest

00:24:52.500 economy in the world

00:24:54.260 by 2030

00:24:55.200 and Xi Jinping

00:24:56.980 publicly

00:24:57.860 is fully aligned

00:24:59.860 with Putin's

00:25:00.800 worldview.

00:25:02.180 He's fully aligned

00:25:03.620 with the idea

00:25:04.980 that American policy

00:25:06.540 towards Russia

00:25:07.160 and Europe

00:25:07.620 is analogous

00:25:09.940 to American policy

00:25:11.540 towards China

00:25:12.420 and Asia.

00:25:13.400 The Quad,

00:25:14.160 the Indo-Pacific

00:25:15.120 strategy,

00:25:16.260 AUKUS,

00:25:16.720 you name it.

00:25:17.600 So you literally,

00:25:18.960 Russia will become

00:25:20.300 completely cut off

00:25:21.440 from the advanced

00:25:23.180 industrial democracies

00:25:24.540 of the West

00:25:25.720 and that is it.

00:25:27.840 We had 141 democracies

00:25:30.140 that voted

00:25:31.160 to censor

00:25:32.100 Russia

00:25:32.740 in the United Nations

00:25:34.060 General Assembly

00:25:34.800 but in terms of

00:25:35.720 support for sanctions,

00:25:36.740 it's only the rich democracies.

00:25:38.440 That's it.

00:25:39.620 That's a minority,

00:25:40.520 a significant minority

00:25:41.400 of the world's population

00:25:42.140 of course.

00:25:43.160 I guess one question there,

00:25:44.400 why didn't

00:25:45.220 the alignment

00:25:46.580 with China

00:25:47.680 convince India

00:25:49.000 that they should move

00:25:50.140 toward us here

00:25:51.720 because I'm given

00:25:52.240 India's adversarial

00:25:53.300 relationship with China?

00:25:54.900 Because these aren't

00:25:55.440 all coordinated

00:25:56.760 moving pieces

00:25:57.480 of one global puzzle.

00:25:58.760 The Russians

00:25:59.600 have been selling

00:26:00.920 significant defense

00:26:02.460 componentry

00:26:03.140 to the Indians

00:26:03.820 for decades

00:26:04.660 and that's a perfectly

00:26:06.040 functional relationship.

00:26:07.340 There's a lot

00:26:07.740 of energy supply

00:26:08.520 that goes from Russia

00:26:09.340 to India

00:26:09.680 and now they can

00:26:10.220 get it cheaper.

00:26:11.240 The Indians

00:26:11.720 are historically

00:26:12.900 non-aligned

00:26:13.600 and they like being

00:26:14.240 a part of the quad

00:26:14.940 vis-a-vis China

00:26:15.680 but Russia

00:26:16.300 has never been

00:26:17.260 featuring a part

00:26:18.620 of that conversation.

00:26:20.840 And by the way,

00:26:22.200 the Chinese foreign minister

00:26:23.500 just went to Delhi

00:26:24.620 and he didn't get

00:26:25.840 a meeting

00:26:26.580 with the Indian

00:26:27.980 prime minister.

00:26:28.860 So the Indians

00:26:29.340 know who they

00:26:31.080 prefer here

00:26:32.380 and I think

00:26:34.260 the United States

00:26:34.940 has a better

00:26:35.780 relationship

00:26:36.380 with Modi

00:26:37.020 than we have

00:26:37.660 with previous

00:26:39.300 Indian PMs.

00:26:40.660 It is becoming

00:26:41.580 more strategic

00:26:42.360 but remember

00:26:43.320 when the pandemic

00:26:45.080 hit

00:26:45.680 and the Indians

00:26:46.700 were providing

00:26:47.360 all of those

00:26:48.260 vaccines

00:26:48.940 for the rest

00:26:50.180 of the world

00:26:50.760 that were coordinating

00:26:51.480 with the US

00:26:52.000 then suddenly

00:26:52.540 they had a huge

00:26:53.220 problem

00:26:53.600 and they asked

00:26:54.160 please send us

00:26:55.500 one plane

00:26:56.760 of vaccines

00:26:57.520 and the United

00:26:58.900 States

00:26:59.320 didn't do it

00:27:00.360 when they had

00:27:01.340 a real crisis.

00:27:02.560 And so now

00:27:02.840 we're having

00:27:03.440 a crisis

00:27:03.940 which has nothing

00:27:04.720 to do with India

00:27:05.360 from their perspective

00:27:06.080 and we're going

00:27:06.860 to tell them

00:27:07.360 don't buy

00:27:08.360 oil, gas

00:27:09.080 and military

00:27:10.080 componentry

00:27:10.720 from the Russians?

00:27:11.340 They're going

00:27:11.820 to tell us

00:27:12.020 to screw

00:27:12.280 ourselves.

00:27:13.380 So they're not

00:27:14.320 part of NATO

00:27:14.780 and I think

00:27:15.900 it's important

00:27:16.960 from a Western

00:27:17.760 perspective

00:27:18.300 like you watch

00:27:19.260 it, it looks

00:27:19.640 like the whole

00:27:20.080 world is with us.

00:27:20.900 No, a very

00:27:22.060 small number

00:27:22.860 of advanced

00:27:24.980 industrial democracies

00:27:25.980 largely rich

00:27:26.740 white people

00:27:27.280 and Japan

00:27:27.780 are with us.

00:27:29.280 We're together

00:27:29.740 on this

00:27:30.300 but that's it

00:27:31.380 and that's not

00:27:32.200 the world.

00:27:32.700 It's not even

00:27:33.000 close to the world.

00:27:34.480 It's not even

00:27:34.940 close to the world's

00:27:35.740 economy

00:27:36.220 never mind

00:27:37.200 the world's

00:27:37.620 population.

00:27:39.160 So you don't

00:27:39.400 think the sanctions

00:27:40.640 even ramped

00:27:42.220 up to their

00:27:42.780 absolute

00:27:43.820 loudest volume

00:27:45.960 are sufficient

00:27:47.320 to harm

00:27:49.800 the Russian

00:27:50.320 economy enough

00:27:51.640 to dictate

00:27:52.620 any kind of

00:27:53.140 outcome here

00:27:53.720 because there's

00:27:54.240 just going to

00:27:54.640 be enough

00:27:55.040 leakage with

00:27:55.800 China and

00:27:56.480 the rest of

00:27:56.980 the world,

00:27:58.180 the developing

00:27:58.620 world, such

00:27:59.820 that you can't

00:28:01.160 actually beggar

00:28:02.300 Russia as a

00:28:03.320 result of this?

00:28:03.840 Well, I mean,

00:28:04.580 here's the

00:28:04.920 interesting thing

00:28:05.760 and this may

00:28:06.180 surprise you

00:28:06.960 and I'm

00:28:07.540 arguing the

00:28:08.520 other side

00:28:09.020 of my point

00:28:09.700 for a second

00:28:10.340 here, but

00:28:11.120 it's interesting

00:28:11.700 China's trade

00:28:13.180 with Russia

00:28:14.000 in the last

00:28:14.560 five weeks

00:28:14.940 has actually

00:28:15.300 gone down

00:28:15.980 and that's

00:28:16.900 because China's

00:28:18.820 economy has a

00:28:19.480 hell of a lot

00:28:19.880 of private

00:28:20.340 sector companies

00:28:21.120 and they have

00:28:21.500 lawyers, they

00:28:22.040 have general

00:28:22.340 counsels, and

00:28:23.180 they understand

00:28:24.900 trade law,

00:28:25.480 they understand

00:28:25.940 sanctions law,

00:28:26.760 and so they

00:28:27.140 look and they

00:28:27.760 say, look,

00:28:28.020 we don't care

00:28:28.480 how friendly

00:28:30.280 Xi Jinping is

00:28:31.460 with Putin,

00:28:32.500 we don't

00:28:32.980 want to fall

00:28:33.420 afoul of

00:28:34.380 American

00:28:34.840 secondary

00:28:35.280 sanctions

00:28:35.800 against us,

00:28:36.400 so they

00:28:36.740 are reducing

00:28:37.660 their exposure

00:28:38.920 to Russia,

00:28:39.580 but what I

00:28:40.380 am saying,

00:28:40.980 what I'm

00:28:41.240 reacting strongly

00:28:42.120 against is

00:28:43.420 that Russia

00:28:44.160 will not

00:28:44.720 become North

00:28:45.380 Korea, they

00:28:46.520 have way too

00:28:47.460 much critical

00:28:48.780 mineral wealth,

00:28:50.660 they are way

00:28:51.920 too important

00:28:52.460 in terms of

00:28:53.360 defense export,

00:28:54.780 they're the

00:28:55.000 second largest

00:28:55.580 defense exporter

00:28:56.420 in the world

00:28:57.100 after the

00:28:57.600 United States,

00:28:58.580 the world is

00:28:59.200 too divided,

00:29:00.460 the United

00:29:00.880 States is

00:29:01.460 no longer

00:29:02.240 seen as

00:29:02.680 the global

00:29:03.080 policeman,

00:29:03.640 we are not

00:29:04.160 the architect

00:29:04.720 of global

00:29:05.240 trade,

00:29:05.620 we are not

00:29:06.140 the cheerleader

00:29:06.800 of global

00:29:07.440 values,

00:29:08.900 and so just

00:29:09.780 saying that we

00:29:10.660 want people to

00:29:11.340 do this,

00:29:11.660 we do have

00:29:12.120 the global

00:29:12.540 reserve currency,

00:29:14.140 we are going

00:29:14.940 to hurt the

00:29:15.700 Russian economy

00:29:16.480 structurally,

00:29:18.320 I mean they

00:29:18.640 will be in a

00:29:19.340 depression on

00:29:20.220 the back of

00:29:20.700 this,

00:29:20.900 their GDP

00:29:21.300 will probably

00:29:21.980 contract by

00:29:22.740 10 to 15

00:29:23.360 percent at a

00:29:24.520 minimum,

00:29:25.160 that's a big

00:29:25.720 deal,

00:29:27.200 but you

00:29:28.600 said will

00:29:29.140 it,

00:29:29.820 will the

00:29:30.320 maximum

00:29:30.740 sanctions be

00:29:31.620 an action

00:29:32.260 forcing event,

00:29:34.040 that implies

00:29:34.720 to me,

00:29:35.260 will Putin

00:29:35.720 be forced

00:29:36.580 to behave

00:29:37.200 differently

00:29:37.700 in Ukraine

00:29:39.140 and more

00:29:39.560 broadly,

00:29:40.140 will he need

00:29:40.600 to capitulate

00:29:41.480 because of

00:29:42.580 the sanctions,

00:29:43.420 and I think

00:29:44.140 the answer to

00:29:44.740 that is

00:29:44.960 clearly no.

00:29:47.260 Interesting.

00:29:48.220 Okay,

00:29:48.520 so now to

00:29:49.000 talk the

00:29:50.020 other side

00:29:50.560 of my

00:29:51.760 intuitions here,

00:29:52.980 one thing

00:29:53.420 that concerns

00:29:54.040 me about

00:29:54.720 any discussion

00:29:56.120 of regime

00:29:57.080 change,

00:29:57.880 right,

00:29:58.240 and therefore

00:29:59.520 about

00:29:59.960 Biden's

00:30:00.680 now very

00:30:01.700 famous

00:30:02.160 gaffe,

00:30:03.200 is that

00:30:03.740 insofar,

00:30:05.180 it doesn't

00:30:06.200 matter how

00:30:06.560 rational Putin

00:30:07.620 has been

00:30:08.180 up until this

00:30:09.160 moment,

00:30:09.780 if we

00:30:11.340 begin talking

00:30:12.280 as though

00:30:13.220 any feasible

00:30:14.760 resolution of

00:30:15.960 this conflict

00:30:16.600 is going to

00:30:17.680 entail

00:30:18.140 his ouster,

00:30:20.200 that becomes

00:30:21.220 synonymous

00:30:21.760 with at

00:30:23.880 minimum him

00:30:25.080 being tried

00:30:25.880 for a war

00:30:26.620 crime somewhere

00:30:27.420 or him

00:30:28.140 being hung

00:30:29.800 up by his

00:30:30.360 heels in

00:30:31.260 Red Square

00:30:32.420 by his own

00:30:33.860 people.

00:30:34.240 I mean,

00:30:34.420 there's no

00:30:35.660 good outcome

00:30:36.460 for someone

00:30:37.340 if we're

00:30:38.060 saying that

00:30:39.560 whatever happens

00:30:41.100 when this

00:30:41.460 game is over,

00:30:43.120 you,

00:30:43.840 Vladimir,

00:30:44.360 are not going

00:30:44.820 to be among

00:30:45.240 the players.

00:30:47.060 And so

00:30:48.500 putting his

00:30:49.420 back that

00:30:50.280 squarely against

00:30:51.740 the wall

00:30:52.320 turns him

00:30:53.620 into,

00:30:54.200 you know,

00:30:54.440 functionally

00:30:55.280 a martyr,

00:30:57.020 right?

00:30:57.220 I mean,

00:30:57.340 it's like

00:30:57.560 he's now

00:30:58.480 not incentivized

00:30:59.560 to do

00:31:00.460 anything other

00:31:01.120 than cause

00:31:02.700 intolerable

00:31:03.880 pain for

00:31:04.740 everyone in

00:31:05.380 sight.

00:31:06.700 And so

00:31:07.060 I have a

00:31:08.480 fairly strong

00:31:09.120 intuition that

00:31:09.860 if we're

00:31:10.140 worried about

00:31:10.580 that,

00:31:10.940 we shouldn't

00:31:11.440 be doing

00:31:11.860 that and

00:31:12.360 we should

00:31:12.740 be building

00:31:13.720 him some

00:31:14.140 kind of

00:31:14.460 off-ramp.

00:31:15.700 And I'm

00:31:15.900 wondering what

00:31:16.320 you think

00:31:16.700 about that and

00:31:17.380 what an

00:31:18.240 off-ramp

00:31:18.700 would look

00:31:19.100 like.

00:31:20.480 This is

00:31:20.640 why I'm

00:31:21.880 so pessimistic

00:31:22.720 about where

00:31:23.140 this crisis

00:31:23.660 is going

00:31:24.180 is because

00:31:24.760 I increasingly

00:31:25.600 don't see

00:31:26.360 a feasible

00:31:26.940 off-ramp.

00:31:28.080 Any off-ramp

00:31:28.760 I see,

00:31:29.460 because Putin's

00:31:30.020 misjudgment

00:31:30.540 was so bad

00:31:31.520 on the

00:31:32.400 reaction of

00:31:33.020 the West,

00:31:34.060 on the

00:31:34.820 willingness of

00:31:35.500 the Ukrainians

00:31:36.080 to fight,

00:31:37.200 on the

00:31:38.220 readiness and

00:31:39.000 capacity of

00:31:39.700 his own

00:31:40.040 military.

00:31:41.540 I mean,

00:31:41.820 he is just,

00:31:42.840 as a consequence,

00:31:43.740 he's in such

00:31:44.400 a worse

00:31:44.720 position.

00:31:45.940 I don't know

00:31:46.600 what an off-ramp

00:31:47.300 would look like

00:31:47.800 that could be

00:31:48.340 remotely acceptable

00:31:49.500 to Putin.

00:31:51.420 So,

00:31:51.900 I mean,

00:31:52.780 look,

00:31:53.120 he's already,

00:31:54.200 he's backed

00:31:55.220 away from

00:31:55.820 Kiev because

00:31:57.500 he can't

00:31:57.900 take it.

00:31:59.160 And it is

00:32:00.140 possible that

00:32:01.740 he won't be

00:32:02.280 able to

00:32:02.680 take the

00:32:04.600 occupied

00:32:05.120 territories of

00:32:06.420 the Donbass.

00:32:08.040 Remember,

00:32:08.440 he recognized

00:32:09.180 that whole

00:32:10.140 Donbass

00:32:10.700 territory,

00:32:11.140 that's two-thirds

00:32:11.720 greater than

00:32:12.820 what the Russians

00:32:13.380 were occupying

00:32:14.300 after 2014

00:32:15.340 and what they

00:32:15.840 continued to

00:32:16.540 occupy when

00:32:18.160 the war

00:32:18.540 started.

00:32:19.500 I think

00:32:20.100 the best

00:32:20.760 way to

00:32:22.260 lead to

00:32:23.200 an off-ramp

00:32:24.080 is to

00:32:25.440 not allow

00:32:26.200 the Russians

00:32:26.800 to create

00:32:27.840 facts on

00:32:28.460 the ground

00:32:28.980 that are

00:32:29.720 unacceptable.

00:32:31.420 And so,

00:32:32.020 this is the

00:32:33.220 time to

00:32:33.840 give the

00:32:34.240 Ukrainians a

00:32:35.220 lot more

00:32:35.660 military

00:32:36.120 capacity

00:32:36.760 to prevent

00:32:38.500 the Russians

00:32:39.080 from taking

00:32:40.000 all of the

00:32:41.280 Donbass.

00:32:42.620 Keep them

00:32:43.700 in the

00:32:44.500 territory that

00:32:45.120 they formerly

00:32:45.700 occupied.

00:32:46.580 They've been

00:32:47.060 blowing up

00:32:47.720 Mariupol now

00:32:48.640 for almost

00:32:49.860 four weeks.

00:32:51.080 It was a

00:32:51.620 city of

00:32:51.980 430,000

00:32:53.280 Ukrainians.

00:32:54.560 It's been

00:32:54.800 completely

00:32:55.280 devastated.

00:32:56.600 Probably

00:32:56.860 20,000

00:32:57.560 Ukrainian

00:32:58.040 civilians

00:32:58.480 are dead.

00:33:00.160 And the

00:33:01.740 Russians

00:33:02.160 have destroyed

00:33:03.200 it.

00:33:03.360 But it's

00:33:03.680 taken them

00:33:04.100 a lot

00:33:04.420 longer.

00:33:04.900 And they're

00:33:05.020 still fighting

00:33:05.440 there.

00:33:05.720 As of right

00:33:06.160 now,

00:33:06.400 they're still

00:33:06.680 fighting

00:33:06.940 there.

00:33:07.940 And if

00:33:08.680 you can

00:33:09.560 keep that

00:33:10.000 fight going

00:33:10.660 for another

00:33:11.540 week or

00:33:11.980 two,

00:33:12.660 and you

00:33:13.240 can show

00:33:13.840 Putin that

00:33:14.440 he's

00:33:15.000 incapable

00:33:15.800 of taking

00:33:17.200 more

00:33:17.600 territory,

00:33:18.300 in the

00:33:19.460 southeast of

00:33:20.240 Ukraine,

00:33:20.680 the Donbass,

00:33:22.060 well,

00:33:22.380 then you

00:33:22.980 kind of

00:33:23.380 have the

00:33:24.680 old 2014

00:33:25.760 status quo

00:33:26.700 ante,

00:33:27.880 plus a

00:33:28.340 whole bunch

00:33:28.780 of dead

00:33:29.160 Ukrainians and

00:33:30.060 destroyed

00:33:30.500 architecture,

00:33:31.320 infrastructure,

00:33:31.940 all the rest,

00:33:32.940 but they

00:33:33.280 haven't taken

00:33:33.800 more land.

00:33:34.640 Where if he

00:33:35.520 takes additional

00:33:37.000 territory and

00:33:38.020 he annexes it

00:33:38.880 into Russia,

00:33:40.280 it's impossible

00:33:41.540 to restart a

00:33:42.400 negotiations process

00:33:43.480 there.

00:33:43.740 It's impossible

00:33:44.260 to at any

00:33:45.340 point talk

00:33:45.980 about how

00:33:47.060 you get

00:33:47.620 any sanctions

00:33:48.600 removed or

00:33:49.400 reduced.

00:33:50.720 And I

00:33:51.160 agree that

00:33:51.800 the fact

00:33:52.380 that Biden

00:33:53.020 has called

00:33:53.680 him a war

00:33:54.140 criminal,

00:33:54.680 it's interesting,

00:33:55.900 everyone talks

00:33:56.660 about this

00:33:57.180 statement he

00:33:57.720 made at the

00:33:58.180 end of the

00:33:58.560 Warsaw speech

00:34:00.000 as a gaffe,

00:34:01.120 where he said,

00:34:01.600 whatever it was,

00:34:02.420 my God,

00:34:03.400 how can this

00:34:04.080 man stay in

00:34:04.640 power?

00:34:05.420 We cannot

00:34:05.800 let this

00:34:06.180 man stay in

00:34:06.640 power.

00:34:07.580 I don't

00:34:07.960 think it

00:34:08.360 was a gaffe.

00:34:09.720 And what I

00:34:10.140 mean by that

00:34:11.060 is I think

00:34:12.300 if you had

00:34:12.680 asked Biden

00:34:13.480 after the

00:34:14.200 speech was

00:34:14.720 over, was

00:34:16.300 he happy

00:34:16.760 he said

00:34:17.200 it, he

00:34:17.940 would have

00:34:18.180 said yes.

00:34:19.280 I think the

00:34:20.020 reason it

00:34:20.440 became a

00:34:20.920 gaffe is

00:34:21.700 because his

00:34:22.760 overly

00:34:23.900 cautious

00:34:24.720 staffers

00:34:25.640 watching him

00:34:27.420 ad lib

00:34:28.000 through the

00:34:28.460 speech and

00:34:29.500 seeing the

00:34:30.060 reaction it

00:34:30.740 got immediately

00:34:31.800 put out a

00:34:33.200 that's not

00:34:33.700 our policy.

00:34:35.060 And as you

00:34:35.340 know, if

00:34:35.680 you're on

00:34:35.960 defense, if

00:34:36.880 you're explaining

00:34:37.360 you're losing,

00:34:38.380 right?

00:34:39.000 And I don't

00:34:39.780 think Biden

00:34:40.220 needed to

00:34:40.740 explain.

00:34:41.160 I thought the

00:34:41.460 statement he

00:34:41.880 made the

00:34:42.200 next day,

00:34:42.740 which was this

00:34:43.160 was a moral

00:34:43.680 position.

00:34:44.140 That's exactly

00:34:44.640 the way he

00:34:45.100 feels, the

00:34:45.540 way he

00:34:45.740 felt.

00:34:46.280 And it's

00:34:46.480 completely

00:34:46.920 consistent with

00:34:48.300 saying that

00:34:49.520 Putin is a

00:34:50.080 war criminal.

00:34:50.940 But when you

00:34:51.440 say Putin is

00:34:52.260 a war criminal,

00:34:53.580 I mean, you

00:34:54.500 are saying I

00:34:55.360 can't deal with

00:34:56.040 this guy going

00:34:56.700 forward.

00:34:57.300 Yeah.

00:34:57.600 That's very

00:34:58.000 clear.

00:34:58.620 We're going to

00:34:59.180 get this guy

00:34:59.700 in the Hague if

00:35:00.440 we have the

00:35:00.940 power to do

00:35:01.420 it.

00:35:01.600 Like this guy

00:35:01.960 can't show up

00:35:02.720 for a meeting

00:35:03.340 because we're

00:35:04.360 going to arrest

00:35:04.920 him, right?

00:35:05.700 I mean, that's

00:35:06.580 yeah.

00:35:07.360 So it's

00:35:07.620 absolutely right.

00:35:08.600 So we have

00:35:09.220 right now, we

00:35:10.360 have the

00:35:10.940 Americans and

00:35:11.580 the Europeans all

00:35:12.460 together.

00:35:12.860 But the

00:35:13.760 farther we

00:35:14.580 go, the

00:35:15.960 harder it is to

00:35:17.000 maintain that.

00:35:18.020 And one point

00:35:19.060 is that you've

00:35:20.580 got the French

00:35:21.440 government that

00:35:22.380 is desperately

00:35:23.280 looking for an

00:35:24.160 off-ramp.

00:35:25.060 Any negotiation

00:35:26.220 with Putin at

00:35:27.180 any point on

00:35:28.080 any discussion,

00:35:28.720 doesn't matter how

00:35:29.320 much he's lying,

00:35:30.320 let's just find a

00:35:31.240 way to get a

00:35:31.880 negotiated settlement,

00:35:32.880 move this

00:35:33.340 through.

00:35:34.000 Biden doesn't

00:35:34.580 feel that way.

00:35:35.060 Biden thinks that

00:35:35.620 there isn't

00:35:36.200 actually an

00:35:36.880 overlap in the

00:35:37.880 Venn diagram

00:35:38.420 between the

00:35:39.640 West and

00:35:40.260 Russia, the

00:35:40.780 West and

00:35:41.120 Putin.

00:35:41.880 And so there's

00:35:42.200 really at this

00:35:42.920 point, even

00:35:43.940 though we prefer

00:35:44.660 negotiations,

00:35:45.760 there's not much

00:35:46.500 utility in

00:35:47.120 negotiations.

00:35:47.900 While the

00:35:48.640 Baltic states

00:35:49.440 and Poland

00:35:50.240 and the

00:35:50.800 United Kingdom

00:35:51.600 actually don't

00:35:52.820 want the war

00:35:53.400 over because

00:35:54.660 they want to

00:35:55.700 see much more

00:35:56.520 damage done to

00:35:57.580 the Russian

00:35:57.980 military and

00:35:58.820 economy, so

00:35:59.840 they can't do

00:36:00.440 this again.

00:36:00.960 And the

00:36:03.020 longer this

00:36:03.780 persists, the

00:36:05.340 greater those

00:36:06.680 latent frictions,

00:36:09.280 which haven't

00:36:10.580 mattered much in

00:36:11.300 the first weeks of

00:36:11.940 the war because

00:36:12.480 we're all just on

00:36:13.400 offense all the

00:36:14.100 time trying to

00:36:14.920 put Putin in a

00:36:15.600 box and trying to

00:36:16.240 support the

00:36:16.640 Ukrainians,

00:36:17.440 suddenly the

00:36:18.200 step two and

00:36:18.960 step three and

00:36:20.200 different approaches

00:36:20.920 to those steps

00:36:22.600 becomes more

00:36:23.720 significant.

00:36:25.280 And that's

00:36:25.780 going to make

00:36:26.120 this more

00:36:26.540 challenging to

00:36:27.500 manage precisely

00:36:28.440 because, Sam,

00:36:29.160 as you mentioned,

00:36:30.400 because, right,

00:36:30.880 it's hard to

00:36:31.840 imagine how

00:36:33.260 this possibly

00:36:34.180 looks from

00:36:36.060 the Putin

00:36:36.540 perspective other

00:36:37.520 than I'm on

00:36:38.900 offense, other

00:36:39.860 than I've got to

00:36:40.400 find a way to

00:36:41.800 bloody these guys

00:36:42.680 because they want

00:36:43.340 to take me out.

00:36:45.340 So then how

00:36:45.640 concerned are you

00:36:46.740 given the logic

00:36:48.000 there that he

00:36:49.840 is going to

00:36:50.620 escalate to the

00:36:51.360 point of using

00:36:52.100 tactical nukes

00:36:53.660 or chemical

00:36:55.020 weapons or some

00:36:55.860 other weaponry

00:36:56.540 which is just

00:36:58.400 on its face

00:36:59.340 totally

00:37:00.500 anathema to

00:37:01.600 the laws of

00:37:02.940 conventional war

00:37:03.640 as we currently

00:37:04.220 conceive them

00:37:05.080 and therefore

00:37:06.460 it would do

00:37:07.640 something that's

00:37:08.180 going to force

00:37:08.780 a response from

00:37:10.480 us that is

00:37:11.200 now taking us

00:37:12.700 far closer to

00:37:14.280 something like

00:37:15.660 World War III.

00:37:16.840 So, I mean,

00:37:17.680 never say never,

00:37:19.000 obviously,

00:37:19.800 in this environment,

00:37:21.200 but that's not

00:37:22.440 what I'm worried

00:37:22.980 about.

00:37:23.320 I'm worried about

00:37:23.700 something else.

00:37:24.320 the questions

00:37:25.480 that you just

00:37:26.040 raised are all

00:37:26.800 about

00:37:27.340 escalation

00:37:28.480 in you.

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Making Sense - Sam Harris - April 03, 2022

#277 — How Does the War in Ukraine End？

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