Making Sense - Sam Harris - #283 — Gun Violence in America

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.

00:00:23.300 This is Sam Harris.

00:00:25.760 Okay, well, today I'm speaking with Graham Wood.

00:00:30.000 Graham is a staff writer at The Atlantic.

00:00:33.100 He's been on the podcast many times before.

00:00:36.420 He wrote a great book on the Islamic State titled The Way of the Strangers, Encounters

00:00:42.180 with the Islamic State.

00:00:43.820 And he's also a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and he also teaches at Yale University.

00:00:49.900 Anyway, today we talk about guns and gun violence in America, the unique character of that problem.

00:00:56.660 We recorded this a couple days after the mass shooting in Uvalde, Texas, and we discussed

00:01:04.400 the issue from every side we can think to analyze it from.

00:01:10.500 No doubt there's more to say.

00:01:12.100 Anyway, those of you who are not used to hearing me get choked up will hear me scarcely able

00:01:17.820 to talk about Uvalde at one point.

00:01:21.040 That story and the specific details are unlike any I can think of at the moment, and it is

00:01:31.780 a kind of super stimulus, morally speaking, that I find it very difficult to think about.

00:01:41.900 Anyway, Graham and I do our best here.

00:01:44.860 This seems like an appropriate podcast to release on Memorial Day.

00:01:49.100 It's also a PSA, so no paywall.

00:01:51.660 If you want to support what we're doing here on the podcast, the way to do that is to subscribe

00:01:57.420 at samharris.org, and I feel immense gratitude to all of you who do that.

00:02:03.320 And now I bring you Graham Wood.

00:02:10.840 I am here with Graham Wood.

00:02:12.700 Once again, Graham, thanks for joining me.

00:02:14.880 I'm glad to be here, Sam.

00:02:15.620 So, we are speaking some days after the Uvalde massacre, and I wanted to have a conversation

00:02:28.880 with you about the larger issue of guns and gun violence in America and what we can do

00:02:36.700 about it.

00:02:37.140 You also, you recently wrote a couple of pieces in The Atlantic about this, and obviously this

00:02:44.140 is on everybody's mind, this is a problem that, despite how excruciating it is, it seems

00:02:52.420 just surprisingly intractable, and it almost seems impossible to solve.

00:02:58.940 This conversation will reveal how complex it is, and the status quo is totally unacceptable,

00:03:07.220 but it seems resistant to change for reasons that are more complex than the people who are

00:03:12.840 calling for change generally seem to realize.

00:03:16.060 And so, I think we'll add some complexity to this, I don't know, and perhaps some moral

00:03:22.740 clarity, but I'll be surprised if we arrive at anything like easy solutions.

00:03:29.620 But perhaps to start, maybe you can just summarize your engagement with this issue.

00:03:36.080 What has been your experience with guns and gun culture and your focus on this as a journalist?

00:03:43.180 I mean, obviously, you focus a ton on violence and chaos, especially overseas, but in what

00:03:50.980 part of your wheelhouse is this issue?

00:03:53.680 Yeah, well, I guess the first thing to say is I'm a Texan, so if you want to know what my

00:03:58.540 experience with gun culture is, I grew up in a place that identifies itself with having 0.99

00:04:03.620 lots of guns around, although I didn't grow up with a gun in my household at all, probably

00:04:08.980 the majority of the friends I knew had them, shot them as kids, certainly had them in the

00:04:14.460 house.

00:04:15.340 And it feels totally normal for me to be around people who have guns and who use them responsibly.

00:04:22.200 And I spent two years working on a ranch in California, and any rural environment you're

00:04:28.760 in is likely to have a lot of guns in it too.

00:04:30.760 And also to have people with guns who are using them responsibly and who think of them

00:04:34.880 as just part of their culture and part of their work, something they use for work and

00:04:38.460 for fun.

00:04:39.560 So it's never been for me a thing that, as I think a lot of people in my journalistic

00:04:47.520 milieu think of guns as scary things.

00:04:51.140 And they should be scared to some extent, but they might not quite understand how deeply

00:04:56.340 implicated in the culture guns are.

00:04:58.420 The other aspect of this that I think has really influenced me is reporting for years

00:05:04.360 on terrorism and counterterrorism, where much like after Uvalde, after September 11, I remember

00:05:11.900 very vividly watching people understandably looking for anything they could do to keep

00:05:17.500 something like that from happening again.

00:05:18.860 And just like after Uvalde, coming up with a lot of really bad ideas that on just a moment's

00:05:25.500 reflection would reveal how bad they were and how unlikely they were to stop the threat.

00:05:29.920 So just like people after September 11 would say, for reasons like it's hard to fathom in

00:05:36.400 retrospect, maybe we need a national ID card.

00:05:38.980 Maybe that would stop this.

00:05:40.800 Similarly, now there are a lot of solutions being proposed, like having fewer doors to the

00:05:46.920 schools that I think similarly on just a few moments reflection would not solve the problem

00:05:53.700 and certainly not the underlying problem.

00:05:55.280 So that's the background that I take to this.

00:05:57.600 And then in addition to that, I'm just someone who enjoys guns and who just happens to have

00:06:03.440 a few days ago applied for my concealed carry permit.

00:06:06.420 So I have some very recent experience of what it's like to try to be legally armed in this

00:06:12.940 country at this moment.

00:06:14.620 Yeah.

00:06:14.700 And you wrote an article about how just comically easy that is to do.

00:06:19.780 I mean, it's not comically easy, perhaps in every state, but where you did it in Connecticut,

00:06:24.840 it was, you know, there really is no process of exclusion.

00:06:30.160 Forget about getting guns.

00:06:31.360 I mean, now we're talking about you're getting a gun and getting a concealed, a permit to carry

00:06:35.300 it concealed.

00:06:36.600 Did you want to say anything about that?

00:06:37.860 Yeah, I expect, I expected that Connecticut, which, you know, 10 years ago had the Sandy

00:06:43.940 Hook disaster to be one of the harder states to get a concealed carry permit.

00:06:48.440 It's not, not compared even to its neighboring states like New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island.

00:06:54.100 And all it really takes is doing a one day gun course.

00:06:58.520 And after that, going to the cops.

00:07:00.720 And if you haven't committed some of the sort of like 11 deadly sins that would get you excluded

00:07:06.520 from gun ownership, like having been convicted of a felony or being the subject of a restraining

00:07:11.680 order or having recently been a mental inpatient, these things will keep you from getting a gun.

00:07:18.340 But I asked the instructor directly who was a, he's been in law enforcement for 30 years.

00:07:24.260 I said, you know, when I go to the police station to get all this paperwork filled out and approved, 0.74

00:07:30.720 what if they just look at me and say, you look kind of crazy. 0.84

00:07:33.760 You look maybe homicidal. 0.98

00:07:35.520 You look like not the kind of person we want on our streets walking around authorized to

00:07:39.660 be carrying a revolver.

00:07:41.900 And he looked at me and said, he said, first of all, if they excluded people on that basis,

00:07:46.740 you think they'd let me have a gun?

00:07:48.540 He actually looked perfectly normal, but his point was well taken.

00:07:51.760 And he said, you could go into the police station with your underpants over your pants

00:07:56.160 and they would still hand you your permit back.

00:07:59.840 So basically it's, unless you've committed one of the very specific things that will prevent

00:08:06.140 you from having a gun, then a gun is yours to carry around in Connecticut if you can jump

00:08:10.240 through the bureaucratic hoops and take a one day course.

00:08:13.260 Yeah.

00:08:13.480 Yeah.

00:08:13.820 And this is a problem when we're going to talk about what happened in Uvalde or Buffalo before

00:08:19.540 that.

00:08:19.920 You're talking about people who wouldn't have been excluded on the basis of most, even all

00:08:27.300 of the remedies that people are suggesting could help solve this problem, right?

00:08:32.840 You're talking about people who legally bought guns, who did not have criminal histories.

00:08:37.740 I guess the Buffalo shooter had some entanglement with the mental health system, but not of a

00:08:43.660 sort that seems currently actionable.

00:08:46.760 I mean, we'll talk about red flag laws and what we might do to mitigate this problem. 0.92

00:08:53.080 But in so many cases, we're talking about someone who has legally acquired a gun.

00:09:00.180 And even, you know, in the case of Uvalde, he went through a background check and passed

00:09:06.180 it because this person had no criminal history.

00:09:09.460 Obviously, there were many red flags in this person's life, and we'll talk about what it

00:09:15.020 might mean to respond to those kinds of things more in a kind of pre-crime minority report

00:09:21.420 way and just how fraught that process might be.

00:09:25.860 But, you know, this is, you know, as you said, the conversation that happens in the aftermath

00:09:30.380 of an atrocity like this rarely hits upon the actionable ideas that would obviously have

00:09:39.580 reduced the risk of the very atrocity that has provoked the conversation.

00:09:46.020 Yeah, exactly.

00:09:46.980 I mean, and I understand why people would flail about in search of a solution here.

00:09:51.780 But, you know, none of the things that were in place, they didn't fail in the sense of,

00:09:58.360 as far as we can tell, this guy was legally permitted to have a gun as an 18-year-old

00:10:03.160 without any serious run-ins.

00:10:05.260 So the system, quote-unquote, worked.

00:10:08.600 And unfortunately, the system working in this case means a couple dozen dead people.

00:10:13.040 So I guess I should briefly summarize my background here.

00:10:15.940 Some people listening to the podcast will know it.

00:10:18.240 But if not, you can read on my blog or listen to, I think it's podcast number 19,

00:10:25.560 where I wrote an article almost 10 years ago titled The Riddle of the Gun

00:10:29.740 in response to a shooting of this sort.

00:10:33.040 And I think it was Sandy Hook that was the proximate cause there. 0.59

00:10:37.380 And I also, I've had several other podcasts and articles on violence.

00:10:43.900 So, I mean, just in brief, I have very little affinity for the religious cult

00:10:50.680 that is organized around the Second Amendment in the U.S.

00:10:53.880 And I share every liberal's outrage at the, you know,

00:10:58.700 the outsized influence that the NRA has had politically over the years

00:11:02.740 and just how obscene it looks from the outside and even from the inside

00:11:07.300 that America is such an outlier with respect to gun violence.

00:11:11.540 I mean, it just makes absolutely no sense.

00:11:13.140 And so when viewed from Australia or the U.K. or Canada,

00:11:18.680 you look at the problem we're suffering here,

00:11:21.500 whether it's mass shootings or just the ambient level of gun violence and suicides

00:11:28.840 that is mostly a problem of handguns, and we'll talk about that.

00:11:33.400 It's just insane that we are living this way.

00:11:36.840 And yet, I am also someone who has never believed that calling 911 is a reasonable strategy for self-defense

00:11:48.780 if someone breaks into your home intent upon harming you or your family.

00:11:53.780 And so I've been a gun owner for many years.

00:11:56.120 I've trained a lot with firearms of various types.

00:12:00.300 I've, you know, gone down the rabbit hole there and discovered how fun it is to do that.

00:12:04.780 I mean, once you admit that you want to, you have a reason to own a gun

00:12:08.520 and you need to get well-trained to use it and to use it safely,

00:12:13.440 then it becomes just incredibly fun to shoot, right?

00:12:17.320 It's just a guilty pleasure, honestly.

00:12:20.180 And so I understand why there are millions of Americans who love to shoot guns

00:12:25.840 and see a reason to own them.

00:12:29.100 Because again, maybe I should just spell out the moral logic of this briefly,

00:12:34.240 because it's easy to, if you're outside of this,

00:12:37.740 if you haven't gone down this particular rabbit hole

00:12:40.280 and you ask, you know, why would anyone want to own a gun, right?

00:12:45.140 Just saying, well, isn't that just increasing the likelihood?

00:12:47.980 I mean, if you're going to take the end of this that many, you know,

00:12:51.360 New York Times opinion columnists might take,

00:12:54.080 it's just owning a gun is entirely fatuous

00:12:58.180 because it just raises the risk that you're going to kill yourself 0.91

00:13:01.700 or you're going to get killed with it by a member of your family who grows deranged 0.76

00:13:05.500 or it's going to get used against you.

00:13:07.860 So your John Wayne fantasies of defending yourself and your family with a gun are irrational.

00:13:13.320 There are many reasons to think that's just not true in one's own case

00:13:18.220 and to not fear that one is self-deceived, right?

00:13:21.840 I mean, yes, if you have a life of chaos,

00:13:23.680 if you're, you know, in danger of being suicidally depressed,

00:13:27.260 if you, you know, or a member of your family seems to be,

00:13:31.020 if you're running a meth lab,

00:13:32.580 if you're hanging out with dangerous, dysfunctional people,

00:13:35.880 well, yes, then adding guns to your life,

00:13:37.820 you might well think is increasing your,

00:13:41.360 the likelihood that you're going to be harmed by them.

00:13:43.740 But if you're an entirely responsible, sane and well-trained person

00:13:48.720 who understands, you know, almost to the level of a religious principle,

00:13:53.940 how important it is to store your guns safely,

00:13:57.120 then it is true that the swimming pool in your yard

00:13:59.420 is a greater risk to friends and family

00:14:02.100 than the gun that is safely locked in your house.

00:14:04.980 And responsible gun ownership in that case is a thing.

00:14:09.100 And the reason why it makes sense ethically is,

00:14:12.000 in my view, a world without guns

00:14:14.220 is a world in which the strongest, most aggressive,

00:14:19.780 most violent, most well-trained,

00:14:23.020 and most numerous, you know, men always win, right?

00:14:27.560 I mean, this is just, that is what it is to live in a world

00:14:30.620 where you don't have access to a weapon

00:14:32.840 that gives you some kind of range in a physical altercation

00:14:36.440 with a stranger who enters your house.

00:14:40.000 The big guy always wins.

00:14:42.420 And if you want to live in that kind of world,

00:14:45.280 I just don't think anyone should be sentimental

00:14:47.620 or nostalgic for that kind of world.

00:14:51.220 Yeah.

00:14:51.840 One thing, Sam, that really changed my mind about guns

00:14:55.220 was a few years ago for The Atlantic,

00:14:57.500 I profiled a gun celebrity on YouTube named John Correa.

00:15:02.380 And one of the really amazing things about YouTube

00:15:06.100 is that, you know, you can see things that in the past,

00:15:10.520 you know, a person could live 100 years

00:15:12.420 and not see, you know,

00:15:14.420 more than half a dozen serious acts of violence.

00:15:16.420 Now you can watch YouTube

00:15:17.220 and there will be color commentary

00:15:18.600 by extremely smart, clever people

00:15:21.600 who have watched thousands,

00:15:23.600 tens of thousands in the case of John Correa

00:15:25.620 and analyze them.

00:15:27.480 And, you know, I think a lot of people

00:15:31.120 who have no experience with guns

00:15:32.500 have the immediate assumption

00:15:34.240 that there's just no way

00:15:35.640 that someone is going to defend himself

00:15:37.160 with a legally acquired and owned firearm.

00:15:41.200 That, you know,

00:15:42.060 home invaders always have the drop on you,

00:15:44.820 that bad guys end up using the guns against you.

00:15:48.160 And indeed, those things happen.

00:15:49.720 But you start watching these videos,

00:15:52.600 which are curated by Correa,

00:15:54.320 and you start seeing it happens all the time,

00:15:58.200 that a self-defender uses a gun against a bad guy.

00:16:02.900 So I think a lot of fantasies about guns,

00:16:07.480 pro and con,

00:16:08.880 are not surviving scrutiny

00:16:10.260 now that we can actually see more instances.

00:16:12.660 Now we could talk about whether in aggregate,

00:16:14.880 and it's hard to say,

00:16:16.220 owning a gun is more likely to save you

00:16:18.520 or harm you.

00:16:20.320 And as you say,

00:16:21.340 a lot of the answer to that

00:16:22.680 is going to have to do with how responsibly you store it,

00:16:25.840 how well-trained you are in its use,

00:16:28.160 and also whether you're a crazy person or not.

00:16:30.700 So I'm guessing you've done the calculation 0.97

00:16:33.100 and you are one of those people

00:16:35.400 who uses guns with a sense of religious commitment

00:16:40.080 to storing them and so forth,

00:16:41.660 and also that you judge yourself

00:16:42.800 non-crazy enough to be responsible enough to own them.

00:16:46.160 Yeah, yeah.

00:16:47.760 And so I feel like defensively

00:16:50.600 I need to put the punchline somewhere up front here

00:16:54.080 because many people who read my essay,

00:16:56.740 The Riddle of the Gun,

00:16:57.560 were just blindsided by it

00:16:59.320 and horrified by it.

00:17:01.000 They just could not believe

00:17:01.960 that I would even own guns

00:17:03.820 despite the fact that I'm the sort of person

00:17:05.900 who gets the occasional death threat

00:17:07.620 and attracts the occasional lunatic into my orbit.

00:17:12.480 And it is a very nuanced

00:17:14.420 and even confusing argument I make

00:17:18.400 because I really am on both sides of this issue

00:17:20.800 and it's not an easy issue to parse.

00:17:23.780 But the thing to put up front

00:17:25.220 is that what I actually recommend,

00:17:27.460 I mean, the policies I would want to see enacted

00:17:29.660 are more restrictive

00:17:31.480 than any that anyone on the left

00:17:36.140 is even arguing for,

00:17:37.600 you know, and would be hopeless

00:17:38.940 to try to implement

00:17:39.840 in the current environment politically.

00:17:41.760 I mean, I just, you know,

00:17:42.560 the short form of this is

00:17:43.720 I think getting a gun

00:17:45.320 should be, you know,

00:17:47.200 the equivalent of getting a pilot's license, right?

00:17:49.920 I mean, I think you should have to be trained,

00:17:51.820 you should have to be vetted,

00:17:52.960 it should be highly non-trivial to get a gun.

00:17:56.700 Now that, you know,

00:17:57.600 there are arguments against that,

00:17:59.360 you know, that bias is against poor people,

00:18:03.140 it bias is against people

00:18:04.240 who just don't have the freedom to do all that

00:18:07.380 and yet still you could argue,

00:18:08.900 you know, that the single mom home alone 0.85

00:18:11.160 should be able to own a gun, et cetera.

00:18:13.580 But anyway, I mean,

00:18:15.200 I'm definitely biased on the side

00:18:16.860 of making things much harder

00:18:18.400 than even, you know,

00:18:20.700 the people who are banging on about gun safety

00:18:23.060 are inclined to argue for.

00:18:25.420 And yet I find it very difficult

00:18:27.360 to wish for a world without guns,

00:18:30.600 again, for the aforementioned reasons.

00:18:32.460 I've just spent enough time training in martial arts

00:18:36.140 and just studying human violence

00:18:38.160 and just knowing, you know,

00:18:39.400 knowing what the problem is

00:18:40.680 without a weapon like a gun

00:18:43.100 when, you know,

00:18:44.440 the guy who spent 10 years in prison,

00:18:46.740 you know, basically going to graduate school

00:18:48.380 for crime,

00:18:49.900 comes into your house,

00:18:51.000 you know,

00:18:51.440 with bad intentions.

00:18:53.580 You know,

00:18:53.780 you picking up a frying pan

00:18:55.200 is a low percentage solution.

00:18:58.060 So, you know,

00:18:59.480 with that said,

00:19:00.060 let's talk about,

00:19:01.940 I guess I have another,

00:19:03.340 you know,

00:19:03.740 throat clearing caveat here.

00:19:06.640 On some level,

00:19:07.540 I wonder whether

00:19:08.540 conversations like this

00:19:10.420 are even good to have,

00:19:13.560 specifically in the aftermath

00:19:14.880 of a mass shooting.

00:19:16.180 I mean, it's because,

00:19:17.340 again,

00:19:17.620 we have a totally intolerable number

00:19:20.700 of mass shootings.

00:19:22.020 I think we've had 212

00:19:23.340 so far this year in the U.S.,

00:19:25.420 which is just insane.

00:19:26.420 I think a mass shooting

00:19:27.380 is defined as anything over

00:19:28.800 four people getting shot

00:19:30.900 in a single incident.

00:19:32.860 But,

00:19:33.720 nevertheless,

00:19:34.440 that is a rounding error

00:19:35.760 on the problem of

00:19:37.140 gun homicide in this country.

00:19:39.360 I mean,

00:19:39.560 that's just not,

00:19:40.960 you know,

00:19:41.160 if we solved all the mass shootings

00:19:43.700 magically,

00:19:44.860 we would still have

00:19:45.980 something like 99%

00:19:47.720 of our gun homicide problem

00:19:50.120 in this country.

00:19:51.800 Right.

00:19:51.940 And to speak of it

00:19:53.000 in the context

00:19:53.640 of a school shooting,

00:19:54.920 there have been,

00:19:55.780 I believe,

00:19:56.200 about 30 such incidents

00:19:57.660 this year.

00:19:58.400 So,

00:19:58.900 again,

00:19:59.660 there's,

00:20:00.300 you know,

00:20:00.460 in my lifetime,

00:20:01.580 I believe the total number

00:20:03.280 of school shootings

00:20:04.780 is on the order

00:20:06.140 of about 1,300.

00:20:07.380 Right.

00:20:07.860 So 201 year

00:20:09.340 of mass shootings

00:20:10.400 or 1,342 years

00:20:13.160 of school shootings.

00:20:14.160 So we are,

00:20:15.980 you know,

00:20:16.580 quite reasonably exercised

00:20:18.320 about what happens

00:20:18.900 in Uvalde.

00:20:19.900 But when we talk

00:20:21.060 about gun violence

00:20:22.040 in general,

00:20:22.600 that's a very,

00:20:23.720 very small contribution

00:20:25.140 to the number

00:20:25.680 of actual dead.

00:20:27.620 Yeah.

00:20:28.520 I'm looking at the

00:20:29.620 FBI statistics

00:20:31.620 on homicide

00:20:32.600 and I think those,

00:20:34.320 we only have those

00:20:35.040 up to 2019,

00:20:36.660 if I'm not mistaken.

00:20:37.820 So homicide has gone up

00:20:39.480 since then.

00:20:40.900 Famously,

00:20:41.580 in the aftermath

00:20:42.580 of COVID

00:20:43.700 and George Floyd,

00:20:44.860 we've had an uptick

00:20:46.200 in homicides.

00:20:47.000 I don't have those

00:20:48.020 current figures.

00:20:49.000 But when you look

00:20:50.040 at 2019,

00:20:51.180 we had nearly

00:20:52.960 14,000 deaths

00:20:54.800 due to homicide.

00:20:58.140 And that is,

00:20:59.560 we should say,

00:21:00.420 we should acknowledge

00:21:01.140 way down

00:21:01.800 from where it was

00:21:03.300 in the early 90s.

00:21:05.180 And, you know,

00:21:07.100 the vast majority,

00:21:08.740 over 10,000 of these

00:21:10.060 are due to firearms

00:21:11.960 of some type.

00:21:13.460 Most of those

00:21:14.180 are handguns.

00:21:14.980 Over 6,000

00:21:15.760 are handguns.

00:21:17.300 Unhelpfully,

00:21:18.020 there are over 3,000

00:21:20.360 where the type

00:21:21.400 of the firearm

00:21:22.320 is not stated.

00:21:24.000 So there's probably

00:21:24.760 some mix of handguns

00:21:26.040 and long guns there.

00:21:27.960 But there's only

00:21:28.420 364 in 2019

00:21:31.620 that are acknowledged

00:21:32.660 to be rifles,

00:21:33.420 200 to be shotguns.

00:21:35.780 And, you know,

00:21:36.780 when you're talking

00:21:37.240 about the much-maligned

00:21:39.260 AR-15,

00:21:40.440 which is everyone's focus

00:21:42.560 in the aftermath

00:21:43.340 of Uvalde,

00:21:44.800 as it was in the aftermath

00:21:45.840 of Sandy Hook,

00:21:47.280 it's, you know,

00:21:48.060 again,

00:21:48.500 this is a rounding error

00:21:49.700 on the problem

00:21:50.480 of gun homicide.

00:21:52.040 And we can talk about

00:21:53.400 the reasons why

00:21:54.500 AR-15s are, 1.00

00:21:55.780 in fact,

00:21:56.320 scary.

00:21:56.920 I mean,

00:21:57.060 the context in which

00:21:57.980 they are,

00:21:58.960 you know,

00:21:59.400 you are at a

00:22:00.340 significant disadvantage

00:22:01.500 given that

00:22:03.120 that a person

00:22:04.340 with bad intentions

00:22:05.240 or mental illness

00:22:06.540 has acquired

00:22:07.460 an AR-15.

00:22:08.600 But having someone

00:22:10.280 gain access

00:22:11.060 to a classroom

00:22:12.560 and the ability 0.99

00:22:14.920 to kill people 0.93

00:22:16.060 at point-blank range, 0.96

00:22:17.440 that is not a context

00:22:18.860 where the unique

00:22:20.860 advantages of an AR-15

00:22:22.240 are the problem,

00:22:24.860 right?

00:22:25.080 I mean,

00:22:25.240 it's very easy

00:22:26.300 to believe

00:22:27.200 that Uvalde

00:22:28.940 or Sandy Hook

00:22:30.820 would have been

00:22:32.300 essentially

00:22:34.320 the same

00:22:35.400 catastrophe

00:22:36.380 had the shooter

00:22:38.460 been armed

00:22:39.320 only with handguns,

00:22:40.700 right?

00:22:41.100 Oh, yeah.

00:22:41.480 I mean,

00:22:42.020 an AR-15

00:22:42.780 is not,

00:22:44.380 it's not necessarily

00:22:45.860 the weapon of choice

00:22:46.540 if you're going to be

00:22:47.220 going through hallways

00:22:48.580 into small rooms,

00:22:49.980 you know,

00:22:50.560 having a shotgun,

00:22:51.620 having handguns,

00:22:52.700 both of these things

00:22:53.580 are more maneuverable.

00:22:54.560 And no one's shooting

00:22:55.100 back at you

00:22:55.600 is the other thing

00:22:56.140 for most of the time.

00:22:57.220 Unfortunately,

00:22:58.200 for a very long time

00:22:59.340 in the case of

00:23:00.000 the guy in Uvalde.

00:23:01.660 But Sam,

00:23:02.460 I won't ask you

00:23:04.100 about the weapons

00:23:05.940 that you keep

00:23:06.520 in your home,

00:23:07.640 but, you know,

00:23:08.440 one argument

00:23:09.420 that I've heard

00:23:10.060 people make

00:23:10.980 is the AR-15

00:23:12.620 is an excellent

00:23:13.440 weapon against tyranny.

00:23:15.380 If you're a Ukrainian

00:23:16.680 and you have an AR-15

00:23:18.620 in your house,

00:23:19.320 that will be very useful

00:23:20.600 since you were just invaded.

00:23:22.860 But if we're just talking

00:23:24.000 about self-defense,

00:23:25.140 which sounds like

00:23:25.940 is one of your

00:23:28.000 biggest concerns,

00:23:28.940 then you could just say,

00:23:30.760 all right,

00:23:31.340 no more AR-15s,

00:23:32.300 but anybody who wants to

00:23:33.500 can have an over-under

00:23:34.740 shotgun in his house.

00:23:36.180 And that will work

00:23:37.240 very well.

00:23:38.960 There will be,

00:23:39.680 the upper half

00:23:40.360 of the home invader

00:23:41.540 will no longer exist

00:23:42.780 once he's hit with that.

00:23:43.940 And it will not be

00:23:44.960 very useful

00:23:45.480 as an offensive weapon.

00:23:47.360 So you're not going

00:23:48.820 to have gangland

00:23:50.200 slayings with these.

00:23:52.900 It seems like

00:23:53.600 the good guy uses

00:23:54.940 of a shotgun

00:23:55.980 are pretty high

00:23:57.980 and the bad guy uses

00:23:59.420 are pretty low.

00:24:00.340 So what do you think

00:24:01.280 about that as a remedy,

00:24:03.400 saying no more AR-15s,

00:24:05.320 definitely no more handguns,

00:24:06.840 but you can have

00:24:07.440 a home defense shotgun

00:24:08.580 anytime you want it?

00:24:09.600 Yeah, well, so,

00:24:12.180 I mean,

00:24:12.860 it's just,

00:24:13.540 now we wade into

00:24:15.420 why the problem

00:24:16.020 is so complicated.

00:24:17.060 So, again,

00:24:18.040 the problem,

00:24:19.280 the overwhelming problem

00:24:20.580 in our society

00:24:21.700 with homicide

00:24:23.060 and suicide

00:24:24.740 based on firearms

00:24:26.860 is a problem

00:24:27.940 of handguns, right?

00:24:29.060 So all the talk

00:24:30.040 about assault rifles,

00:24:32.060 AR-15s, 0.95

00:24:32.980 is not acknowledging

00:24:34.980 that fact, right?

00:24:37.400 But the other problem

00:24:39.380 is handguns

00:24:40.180 are never on the table

00:24:42.460 for banning.

00:24:43.860 I mean,

00:24:44.060 it's just not,

00:24:44.640 it's a political non-starter.

00:24:47.660 It's not,

00:24:48.760 certainly when you're

00:24:49.420 talking about a culture

00:24:50.480 in which concealed carry

00:24:52.240 is a thing,

00:24:53.820 it's, you know,

00:24:54.640 it's the only thing

00:24:55.280 you're going to carry

00:24:55.880 concealed is a handgun.

00:24:57.740 There are reasons

00:24:58.720 why I would consider

00:25:00.580 a handgun preferable

00:25:01.760 to a shotgun

00:25:02.440 for self-defense

00:25:04.180 even at home.

00:25:05.100 so that, you know,

00:25:06.200 there's an argument

00:25:06.740 that they had there

00:25:07.520 but it's just

00:25:09.020 that the handgun

00:25:09.920 is the last thing

00:25:10.860 anyone is going to ban

00:25:11.880 and it is 99%

00:25:14.500 of the problem.

00:25:15.800 And, again,

00:25:16.920 if you take

00:25:17.720 a situation like,

00:25:19.700 you know,

00:25:20.140 a school shooting,

00:25:21.520 a handgun is arguably

00:25:22.660 the most insidious

00:25:24.640 thing to use

00:25:26.680 because it is the thing

00:25:27.620 that can be concealed

00:25:28.460 until the last moment.

00:25:29.600 I mean,

00:25:29.700 the person walking

00:25:30.540 into a school

00:25:31.340 with an AR-15

00:25:32.920 looks, you know,

00:25:34.600 every inch 0.90

00:25:35.360 the dangerous maniac

00:25:36.560 as he approaches

00:25:37.820 the school

00:25:38.400 because he's,

00:25:39.500 you know,

00:25:39.660 what business

00:25:40.620 does somebody have

00:25:41.660 holding an AR-15,

00:25:43.660 you know,

00:25:44.200 in the parking lot

00:25:44.900 of a school

00:25:45.440 unless they're a cop

00:25:46.840 responding to a school shooting?

00:25:48.660 So, you know,

00:25:49.480 it gives someone,

00:25:50.840 if there is protection

00:25:52.720 of any kind

00:25:53.620 at the school,

00:25:54.660 it gives people

00:25:56.000 the ability

00:25:56.460 to notice

00:25:57.020 that something

00:25:57.660 completely out of the ordinary

00:25:59.060 is about to happen.

00:25:59.960 whereas with a handgun,

00:26:02.120 you know,

00:26:02.440 a handgun concealed

00:26:03.280 in a backpack,

00:26:04.560 you know,

00:26:04.820 can be brought

00:26:05.380 into any place

00:26:06.420 of business,

00:26:07.120 any, you know,

00:26:07.880 soft target,

00:26:10.080 right,

00:26:10.340 in a movie theater,

00:26:11.620 an auditorium,

00:26:12.820 you know,

00:26:13.020 any place that doesn't

00:26:13.720 have a metal detector

00:26:14.640 is vulnerable

00:26:15.560 to somebody

00:26:16.560 with a handgun.

00:26:17.760 And again,

00:26:18.220 up close,

00:26:19.160 there's virtually

00:26:19.860 no advantage

00:26:20.700 to an AR-15.

00:26:22.260 I mean,

00:26:22.540 ballistically,

00:26:23.980 it's usually worse

00:26:25.800 to get hit

00:26:26.300 with a round

00:26:26.860 moving that fast,

00:26:27.920 but in fact,

00:26:28.920 not always.

00:26:29.960 And it's easier

00:26:31.240 to wrestle

00:26:31.920 a long gun

00:26:32.920 away from an attacker

00:26:34.320 than it is a handgun,

00:26:36.060 right?

00:26:36.320 You just,

00:26:36.520 you know,

00:26:37.220 it's easier

00:26:37.720 just to grab the barrel

00:26:38.840 and point it

00:26:39.540 toward the ceiling

00:26:40.220 and then all of a sudden

00:26:41.120 you're in a wrestling match.

00:26:42.720 And so,

00:26:43.580 the problem is,

00:26:45.080 even when you're talking

00:26:46.060 about mass shootings,

00:26:47.940 handguns present

00:26:49.300 every part of the problem.

00:26:51.660 And so,

00:26:52.080 everything you're going

00:26:53.300 to hear about

00:26:54.040 banning assault weapons,

00:26:55.600 it's symbolic

00:26:56.420 more than anything else.

00:26:58.180 And it's not to say

00:26:58.880 that I'm against

00:26:59.460 banning AR-15s, 0.77

00:27:01.500 it's just,

00:27:02.100 if we could do that,

00:27:03.560 we still haven't

00:27:04.280 solved the problem.

00:27:05.520 I should say

00:27:05.960 that the situation

00:27:07.660 in which a rifle

00:27:08.720 presents a terrifying

00:27:10.360 advantage

00:27:10.980 is where

00:27:12.500 a person is shooting

00:27:13.920 from some distance,

00:27:15.840 right?

00:27:16.040 I mean,

00:27:16.220 hitting something

00:27:16.760 at 100 yards 0.76

00:27:17.640 with a handgun

00:27:18.760 is genuinely difficult

00:27:20.540 even for

00:27:21.700 a very good shooter.

00:27:23.000 and it's trivially easy

00:27:25.080 with a rifle.

00:27:26.660 And so,

00:27:27.100 anyone with,

00:27:27.900 you know,

00:27:28.120 30 minutes of training

00:27:29.440 with an AR-15

00:27:30.800 can hit something

00:27:32.680 at 100 yards

00:27:33.960 at will.

00:27:35.020 And that is not true

00:27:36.540 with a handgun.

00:27:37.380 I mean,

00:27:37.540 it's just,

00:27:37.820 it's not true

00:27:38.880 with a handgun

00:27:39.440 even if you're

00:27:40.100 a good shooter,

00:27:41.180 right?

00:27:42.020 And so,

00:27:42.520 that's a huge difference.

00:27:44.780 And so,

00:27:45.000 when you're talking

00:27:45.480 about a situation

00:27:47.300 where someone's,

00:27:47.960 you know,

00:27:48.160 on the clock tower

00:27:50.760 on a university campus

00:27:52.600 shooting people

00:27:53.560 at distance, 0.98

00:27:55.120 you know,

00:27:55.720 Charles Whitman style,

00:27:57.200 yes,

00:27:57.780 rifles present

00:27:59.220 the problem there.

00:28:01.320 But,

00:28:02.140 the problem in that case

00:28:03.260 is that

00:28:03.700 many rifles

00:28:04.660 that people

00:28:05.340 would use

00:28:06.620 for hunting,

00:28:07.560 you know,

00:28:07.760 the very same rifle

00:28:09.140 is precisely

00:28:10.500 the rifle

00:28:11.240 a sniper would use 1.00

00:28:13.060 to kill people 1.00

00:28:13.720 at distance, 1.00

00:28:14.740 right?

00:28:14.860 So,

00:28:15.040 unless you're going

00:28:15.460 to talk about

00:28:16.260 fundamentally

00:28:17.120 removing guns

00:28:18.780 from circulation,

00:28:20.120 it's very hard

00:28:21.100 to see how

00:28:21.580 you're closing

00:28:22.620 the door

00:28:23.180 to various aspects

00:28:25.660 of this problem.

00:28:27.400 Yeah,

00:28:27.700 which raises

00:28:28.760 the question,

00:28:29.580 since the AR-15

00:28:30.600 is not

00:28:32.040 the ideal weapon

00:28:33.540 for wreaking havoc

00:28:35.220 in a school

00:28:35.720 or post office,

00:28:36.940 then why is it

00:28:38.340 constantly being used?

00:28:39.920 And that's,

00:28:40.840 I think,

00:28:41.480 there's some interesting

00:28:42.080 answers to that.

00:28:42.820 One is that

00:28:43.680 there's just a whole

00:28:44.440 bunch of them.

00:28:45.220 They're extremely

00:28:45.980 common now

00:28:46.580 and they weren't

00:28:46.980 20 years ago.

00:28:48.360 But also,

00:28:49.020 I think it points

00:28:49.640 to something else

00:28:50.100 that's really important,

00:28:50.940 which is that

00:28:51.800 there's a social

00:28:52.360 contagion effect.

00:28:53.920 Everybody knows

00:28:54.520 what an AR-15 is.

00:28:55.620 Everybody talks

00:28:56.180 about an AR-15.

00:28:57.140 They have this

00:28:57.720 talismanic importance

00:28:58.960 to people who love

00:29:00.180 guns and people

00:29:00.920 who hate guns.

00:29:02.240 And, you know,

00:29:03.120 one of the questions

00:29:03.820 that I think

00:29:04.880 we should be asking

00:29:05.740 that is going to have

00:29:06.520 a really complex

00:29:07.360 and difficult answer

00:29:08.860 is why this is

00:29:10.500 happening now,

00:29:11.420 given that there

00:29:11.980 have been guns

00:29:12.560 in the U.S.

00:29:13.020 for a long time.

00:29:13.780 And I think

00:29:15.260 that these questions

00:29:16.640 are related.

00:29:17.440 That is,

00:29:18.340 the social contagion

00:29:19.180 that causes people

00:29:19.780 to use an AR-15

00:29:21.140 is probably similar

00:29:22.560 to the social contagion

00:29:23.580 that makes people

00:29:24.360 think,

00:29:24.980 I'm an unhappy teenager,

00:29:26.220 I'm an unhappy

00:29:26.920 adolescent,

00:29:27.980 and the way I'm

00:29:28.940 going to express

00:29:29.440 that unhappiness

00:29:30.240 is with a suicidal

00:29:31.300 rampage in a school.

00:29:33.140 So, I think,

00:29:34.900 just as you say,

00:29:36.040 the precise frame

00:29:38.560 of the rifle,

00:29:39.800 the precise type

00:29:40.740 of weapon

00:29:41.560 is probably not

00:29:43.220 what we should

00:29:43.700 be thinking about.

00:29:44.560 But instead,

00:29:45.540 why is it that

00:29:46.880 people have this idea

00:29:48.080 in their heads

00:29:48.700 that if they want

00:29:49.940 to, say,

00:29:50.800 express their politics

00:29:51.920 in the case of Buffalo

00:29:52.840 or express their

00:29:54.820 hatred of the world

00:29:56.020 in the case,

00:29:56.680 it seems,

00:29:56.940 of Uvalde,

00:29:57.940 why do they go

00:29:58.660 to schools to do it

00:29:59.840 and why do they

00:30:00.280 pick up an AR-15

00:30:01.120 to do it?

00:30:01.620 Yeah, yeah.

00:30:03.000 I realize now

00:30:03.660 I never actually

00:30:04.560 made the point

00:30:05.220 I wanted to make

00:30:05.740 at the outset,

00:30:06.380 which is yet another

00:30:07.580 caveat here,

00:30:08.380 which is around

00:30:09.520 my uncertainty

00:30:10.320 and even having

00:30:12.020 this conversation

00:30:12.980 focusing on a mass

00:30:14.560 shooting.

00:30:15.140 And for me,

00:30:15.780 it's somewhat

00:30:16.460 analogous to talking

00:30:18.200 about plane crashes

00:30:19.500 in the aftermath

00:30:20.760 of an especially

00:30:22.580 horrific plane crash,

00:30:24.100 right?

00:30:24.780 And I notice this

00:30:25.840 in what I'm

00:30:26.860 inclined to say

00:30:28.040 or not say

00:30:28.960 to my daughters

00:30:30.180 about both

00:30:31.580 of those topics,

00:30:32.380 right?

00:30:32.520 So if there's

00:30:33.020 a plane crash,

00:30:34.340 the truth is,

00:30:34.920 unless they bring it up,

00:30:36.600 I'm not going to talk

00:30:37.780 to my daughters

00:30:38.380 about plane crashes,

00:30:40.120 right?

00:30:40.320 Because I don't want

00:30:41.260 them to be afraid

00:30:42.080 to fly.

00:30:43.280 The likelihood

00:30:43.780 that they're ever

00:30:44.260 going to be

00:30:44.480 in a plane crash

00:30:45.220 is infinitesimal.

00:30:47.360 And the likelihood

00:30:47.880 that they could do

00:30:48.580 anything useful

00:30:49.380 in a plane crash

00:30:50.180 is also close

00:30:51.320 to infinitesimal.

00:30:52.620 So I think

00:30:54.040 their lives

00:30:54.820 are better

00:30:55.360 just not thinking

00:30:57.600 about plane crashes

00:30:58.880 and being told

00:31:00.040 accurately

00:31:00.620 that the likelihood

00:31:01.720 of being in one

00:31:02.600 is vanishingly small

00:31:04.820 and that they're

00:31:05.700 safer on a plane

00:31:06.740 than in many

00:31:08.080 other places,

00:31:09.160 including cars,

00:31:10.840 where they're not

00:31:11.480 worried to be.

00:31:12.800 So,

00:31:13.600 and I do want them

00:31:14.920 to feel that way

00:31:15.740 about going to school,

00:31:17.220 right?

00:31:17.440 So in the aftermath

00:31:18.020 of a school shooting,

00:31:19.720 telling kids,

00:31:21.180 you know,

00:31:21.560 especially,

00:31:22.520 you know,

00:31:22.800 kids under 10

00:31:24.160 and what they

00:31:25.220 should be doing

00:31:25.940 if somebody come,

00:31:27.080 if a maniac comes in

00:31:28.340 with a gun 0.92

00:31:29.120 and starts murdering 1.00

00:31:30.080 people,

00:31:30.900 I really have

00:31:31.860 misgivings about

00:31:33.620 even having that

00:31:34.960 conversation,

00:31:35.960 right?

00:31:36.240 And it's just,

00:31:37.460 there's something

00:31:38.040 so oppressive

00:31:39.600 about this picture

00:31:41.820 of the world

00:31:42.540 that must be forming

00:31:43.900 in the minds

00:31:44.740 of our children

00:31:45.580 where we're,

00:31:46.600 you know,

00:31:46.800 we're talking about

00:31:48.120 making schools

00:31:49.520 resemble,

00:31:50.420 you know,

00:31:50.680 more and more

00:31:51.280 something like a prison

00:31:53.000 in terms of the,

00:31:54.000 you know,

00:31:54.280 the access to the campus

00:31:56.680 and for them

00:31:58.300 to be doing drills

00:31:59.340 and being told,

00:32:00.480 you know,

00:32:00.660 what to do

00:32:01.380 in cases like this,

00:32:03.800 it just,

00:32:04.300 I question the whole

00:32:05.820 project psychologically

00:32:07.680 and it's not to say

00:32:09.280 that if you're ever

00:32:10.080 in a situation like this,

00:32:11.140 you wouldn't want

00:32:12.520 your kid to know

00:32:13.680 to run away

00:32:14.580 from the sounds

00:32:15.200 of gunshots

00:32:15.820 but it's just,

00:32:17.500 I'm uncertain about,

00:32:19.100 you know,

00:32:19.560 whether it's wise

00:32:20.560 to focus on this

00:32:22.120 in the way that we do

00:32:22.920 given the actual

00:32:24.700 probabilities.

00:32:25.540 I mean,

00:32:25.620 on the day that

00:32:26.660 Uvalde happened,

00:32:28.240 you know,

00:32:28.420 it's got to be

00:32:28.840 something like

00:32:29.400 75 million kids

00:32:31.000 went to school

00:32:31.620 that day in America,

00:32:33.060 right?

00:32:33.340 So it's just,

00:32:34.180 this is not

00:32:35.580 a likely experience

00:32:37.140 for anyone

00:32:37.760 and yet focusing on it,

00:32:39.840 you know,

00:32:40.440 amplifies everyone's

00:32:42.160 terror and concern.

00:32:44.240 So anyway,

00:32:44.640 that's,

00:32:44.980 you know,

00:32:45.260 I say that only

00:32:46.620 to then focus on it

00:32:47.620 because I do think

00:32:48.300 as a society

00:32:49.800 we have to get

00:32:50.220 our heads around this

00:32:50.960 but,

00:32:51.540 you know,

00:32:51.700 I have not

00:32:52.280 sat my daughters

00:32:53.620 down and had a talk

00:32:54.920 with them

00:32:55.920 in any kind of

00:32:56.960 extended way

00:32:58.020 around this issue

00:32:58.820 and I just expressed

00:33:00.640 my reasons

00:33:01.480 for not doing that

00:33:02.780 and I know

00:33:03.480 you just wrote

00:33:04.320 an article

00:33:04.700 that sort of

00:33:06.660 took the other

00:33:07.240 end of this

00:33:07.880 to some degree

00:33:08.720 so I'm just wondering

00:33:09.600 what you think

00:33:10.040 about that.

00:33:11.520 Well,

00:33:11.680 first of all,

00:33:12.480 I agree with you

00:33:13.120 completely.

00:33:14.540 You know,

00:33:14.780 I mentioned before

00:33:15.680 the number

00:33:16.160 of school

00:33:17.360 shooting dead

00:33:18.400 in the last 40 years 0.97

00:33:19.620 is on the order

00:33:20.300 of 400s.

00:33:21.100 That's like 10 a year.

00:33:23.040 That's,

00:33:23.520 you know,

00:33:23.820 10 too many,

00:33:24.540 of course,

00:33:25.220 but the idea

00:33:26.400 that the chances

00:33:27.120 of a,

00:33:27.900 you know,

00:33:28.800 10 in 50

00:33:30.220 or 75 million

00:33:31.240 chance of dying

00:33:33.140 that that would

00:33:33.800 cause us to

00:33:35.000 change the architecture

00:33:36.180 of our schools,

00:33:37.300 the feel of our schools

00:33:38.640 and also to

00:33:40.200 force our kids

00:33:41.740 under the age of 10

00:33:43.000 to once or twice a year

00:33:45.120 mentally and physically

00:33:46.560 simulate the possibility

00:33:48.040 that there will be

00:33:48.860 this extremely rare

00:33:50.460 event of someone

00:33:51.880 coming in and shooting

00:33:52.720 as many people 0.99

00:33:53.240 as possible,

00:33:54.240 it seems to be

00:33:54.900 obviously disproportionate

00:33:56.900 and harmful

00:33:57.360 for kids to be

00:33:59.320 asked to think about that.

00:34:01.340 And, you know,

00:34:01.860 on the topic

00:34:02.920 of social contagion,

00:34:04.780 that means every kid

00:34:05.820 in the country

00:34:06.800 is on a regular basis

00:34:08.460 asked to think about this

00:34:10.480 as something

00:34:11.400 that might happen,

00:34:12.260 which increases

00:34:14.000 the psychological

00:34:14.800 availability

00:34:15.600 of that

00:34:16.720 as something

00:34:17.180 they might

00:34:17.660 not just live through

00:34:18.840 but might perpetrate.

00:34:20.000 So I think

00:34:20.880 that's completely nuts

00:34:22.400 that we would

00:34:23.080 rearrange the lives

00:34:24.240 of children

00:34:24.720 just on that basis.

00:34:26.440 And in particular,

00:34:27.660 you know,

00:34:27.820 I've written about

00:34:29.000 why changing schools

00:34:30.540 so that they're

00:34:31.020 more prison-like

00:34:31.920 first of all

00:34:33.040 wouldn't help very much

00:34:34.080 if at all.

00:34:35.080 And second of all,

00:34:35.900 for pretty obvious reasons,

00:34:37.780 I don't think kids

00:34:39.080 should go to school

00:34:39.880 in prisons.

00:34:40.320 I think they should go

00:34:40.880 to school

00:34:41.620 in happy places

00:34:42.520 where they can

00:34:43.040 think about ideas

00:34:44.140 and play

00:34:44.500 and be kids.

00:34:45.660 On top of all that,

00:34:47.020 I do think that

00:34:48.040 kids have to be, 0.88

00:34:50.040 they can be told

00:34:51.260 how to react

00:34:52.340 in a way

00:34:53.340 that doesn't

00:34:54.460 traumatize them.

00:34:55.900 And that's what

00:34:56.980 I've sort of

00:34:57.520 come down to

00:34:58.540 when I talk

00:34:59.820 with my loved ones

00:35:00.620 about what they should do

00:35:01.420 in the case of a mass shooting.

00:35:02.920 You just say,

00:35:03.960 look,

00:35:04.220 this is almost certainly

00:35:05.420 never going to happen.

00:35:06.760 But if it does happen,

00:35:08.200 all you have to do

00:35:09.060 is run away.

00:35:10.720 Run as fast as you can.

00:35:12.120 And the chances

00:35:12.580 that you will be fine

00:35:13.660 are extremely high.

00:35:15.300 I mean,

00:35:15.840 if there's a mass shooter

00:35:16.660 in a school,

00:35:17.780 that person 0.88

00:35:18.440 is going to kill people, 0.98

00:35:19.920 yes. 0.97

00:35:20.820 But if experience

00:35:23.200 is any guide

00:35:24.260 to what it's going

00:35:25.260 to look like,

00:35:25.680 it's going to be

00:35:26.260 someone with no training

00:35:27.700 going in there

00:35:28.900 having just bought

00:35:30.700 his AR-15.

00:35:32.620 And the chances

00:35:33.460 of his being able

00:35:34.500 to hit someone

00:35:35.040 who's running

00:35:35.580 are vanishingly small.

00:35:37.340 You said 30 minutes

00:35:38.520 will be enough

00:35:39.280 to hit someone 0.93

00:35:39.820 from far away.

00:35:40.660 Yes,

00:35:41.000 if you've got a bench rest,

00:35:42.660 if you've...

00:35:43.760 And if that person

00:35:44.340 is essentially

00:35:45.320 standing still.

00:35:46.740 Yeah,

00:35:46.880 I mean,

00:35:47.060 hitting something moving

00:35:48.120 is hard,

00:35:49.940 you know,

00:35:50.280 and this is just

00:35:51.480 generic advice

00:35:52.580 for somebody

00:35:53.740 in a situation

00:35:55.440 where a gun

00:35:56.040 is pulled on them.

00:35:57.400 Someone pulls a gun

00:35:58.380 on you and says,

00:35:59.220 don't move,

00:36:00.280 you run away.

00:36:01.740 It is,

00:36:02.460 I mean,

00:36:02.700 yes, 0.81

00:36:03.600 you still might get shot,

00:36:05.180 but the moment

00:36:06.500 you're running,

00:36:07.300 it is genuinely hard

00:36:08.500 to hit somebody

00:36:09.300 and even when you're,

00:36:10.900 even when you have

00:36:11.500 some training on this

00:36:12.980 and even cops

00:36:14.360 don't get training

00:36:15.480 on moving targets

00:36:16.880 very often.

00:36:18.120 It's just,

00:36:18.900 you know,

00:36:19.140 it's a fundamentally

00:36:19.720 different situation

00:36:20.700 than shooting

00:36:21.240 a stationary target.

00:36:22.760 So,

00:36:23.340 yeah,

00:36:23.580 I mean,

00:36:23.740 running away

00:36:24.260 is always good advice.

00:36:26.780 So,

00:36:26.960 I think that,

00:36:28.260 you know,

00:36:28.560 giving advice to people

00:36:30.200 in ways that is

00:36:31.420 not itself traumatizing,

00:36:33.540 you keep it simple,

00:36:34.720 you let them know

00:36:35.300 that it's not going

00:36:36.100 to be something

00:36:36.560 that you're ever

00:36:37.780 going to have to do,

00:36:39.000 but reassure them

00:36:40.280 that if it happens,

00:36:41.260 all you have to do

00:36:41.780 is pretty much

00:36:42.520 just one thing

00:36:43.340 and it's something

00:36:44.280 that you do

00:36:44.980 every time you go

00:36:45.640 out,

00:36:45.960 you know,

00:36:46.280 in recess

00:36:47.100 is run

00:36:48.320 and then you don't

00:36:49.520 stop running.

00:36:50.620 And if you do that,

00:36:51.500 the chances

00:36:52.060 that you get through

00:36:53.580 it are extremely high.

00:36:55.940 So,

00:36:56.560 I hate the idea

00:36:58.400 that kids,

00:36:59.760 first of all,

00:37:00.080 I think it's a bad idea

00:37:01.300 to have them

00:37:01.940 shelter in place,

00:37:03.720 to have them,

00:37:04.800 you know,

00:37:05.020 I would tell a kid

00:37:06.560 if your teacher

00:37:07.260 says to shelter in place

00:37:09.000 and there's shooting

00:37:10.360 going on

00:37:10.920 and you break a window

00:37:12.480 and run, 0.98

00:37:13.520 you will not even

00:37:14.700 be charged

00:37:15.180 for the cost

00:37:15.760 of the window.

00:37:16.500 You will not be

00:37:17.340 kept in detention

00:37:18.400 the next day.

00:37:19.760 There will be

00:37:20.280 no one who faults

00:37:21.580 you for doing this.

00:37:23.580 And I think

00:37:24.600 the outcome

00:37:25.920 is likely to be

00:37:26.500 far better

00:37:27.040 than if you

00:37:27.840 shelter in place

00:37:28.740 because the worst

00:37:29.640 possible outcome,

00:37:31.620 especially with

00:37:32.140 an untrained shooter,

00:37:33.920 is that he

00:37:34.700 corners you,

00:37:36.300 that he's standing

00:37:37.040 in the doorway,

00:37:37.820 the only doorway

00:37:38.480 out of the classroom.

00:37:40.140 So,

00:37:40.620 avoiding that scenario

00:37:41.580 is the main thing

00:37:42.720 that we have to do.

00:37:43.580 I have a suspicion

00:37:45.740 about how

00:37:46.300 the shelter in place

00:37:47.600 suggestion

00:37:48.120 came about.

00:37:49.280 I think it's because

00:37:50.320 schools thought

00:37:51.640 about fire drills.

00:37:52.460 It used to be

00:37:54.340 that you really

00:37:55.200 wanted to keep

00:37:56.040 an account

00:37:56.560 of where all

00:37:57.640 the kids were.

00:37:58.380 You get them out

00:37:58.960 and you know

00:37:59.660 who everyone is

00:38:00.400 so you don't have

00:38:01.040 to run back in

00:38:01.720 and look for some

00:38:02.520 kid who's wandered off.

00:38:04.300 But obviously

00:38:04.740 that's not a great

00:38:05.600 template for dealing

00:38:06.580 with an active

00:38:07.240 shooter scenario

00:38:07.860 since no one's

00:38:08.420 ever going to go

00:38:08.980 back in

00:38:09.540 unless they're going 0.97

00:38:10.460 in to kill 0.99

00:38:11.320 the shooter. 0.99

00:38:12.160 So,

00:38:12.540 I think that

00:38:13.620 keeping the

00:38:14.560 advice simple

00:38:16.040 and based on

00:38:17.600 thinking of it

00:38:18.560 as a foot race

00:38:19.200 I think is

00:38:19.720 probably the way

00:38:20.760 to go.

00:38:22.100 Yeah,

00:38:22.260 I mean the one

00:38:23.060 thing I would

00:38:24.060 add here is that

00:38:24.860 as kids get

00:38:25.920 older,

00:38:26.460 once you're

00:38:27.040 talking about

00:38:27.520 teenagers who

00:38:28.700 increasingly are

00:38:30.240 physically equivalent

00:38:31.300 to the size

00:38:32.760 and strength

00:38:33.840 of an adult,

00:38:35.100 then one thing

00:38:36.880 changes,

00:38:37.580 which is

00:38:37.880 then it's

00:38:38.900 possible to

00:38:40.240 physically swarm

00:38:41.700 a shooter

00:38:42.740 and bring them

00:38:43.540 down.

00:38:44.060 And there's

00:38:44.740 some training

00:38:45.740 and just

00:38:46.680 a different

00:38:47.240 mindset

00:38:47.720 is relevant.

00:38:49.680 I mean,

00:38:49.880 a bunch of

00:38:50.920 16-year-olds

00:38:51.740 could definitely

00:38:52.680 take down

00:38:53.240 a shooter

00:38:53.680 and if

00:38:54.680 they're

00:38:55.140 cornered

00:38:56.180 knowing that

00:38:56.900 acting in

00:38:57.740 unison

00:38:58.660 is very

00:38:59.800 different than

00:39:00.400 acting serially

00:39:01.480 and just

00:39:01.900 getting shot 0.70

00:39:03.360 serially.

00:39:04.520 I mean,

00:39:04.740 this is a point

00:39:05.120 you made in

00:39:05.560 your article

00:39:05.980 and this is a

00:39:06.360 point that

00:39:06.680 many of us

00:39:07.280 made.

00:39:08.160 I made this

00:39:09.620 10 years ago

00:39:10.320 in my article

00:39:10.840 but this is

00:39:12.460 just very much

00:39:12.960 in the air.

00:39:13.460 we all

00:39:14.560 noticed

00:39:15.180 in the

00:39:16.300 aftermath

00:39:16.660 of September

00:39:17.560 11th

00:39:18.220 that the

00:39:19.280 rules have

00:39:19.940 changed

00:39:20.620 for hijackings

00:39:23.180 in the sky.

00:39:25.260 If the

00:39:26.860 plane is

00:39:27.500 already flying

00:39:28.740 and someone

00:39:30.460 stands up

00:39:31.100 and says,

00:39:31.640 okay,

00:39:31.840 everyone just

00:39:32.320 stay in your

00:39:32.760 seats.

00:39:33.560 If you don't

00:39:33.980 move,

00:39:34.340 nothing bad

00:39:34.780 is going

00:39:34.960 to happen.

00:39:35.320 There's a

00:39:35.540 bomb on

00:39:35.840 the plane. 0.73

00:39:36.620 I'm just

00:39:36.900 going to

00:39:37.080 take control

00:39:37.560 of this

00:39:37.820 thing and

00:39:38.180 we're going

00:39:38.380 to fly

00:39:39.140 to Cuba.

00:39:40.300 That used

00:39:41.860 to be

00:39:42.440 people

00:39:43.320 would

00:39:43.640 just

00:39:43.800 comply

00:39:44.280 in

00:39:44.660 those

00:39:44.820 situations

00:39:45.360 for

00:39:46.120 understandable

00:39:46.580 reasons.

00:39:47.080 They're

00:39:47.240 terrified

00:39:47.820 and hoping

00:39:48.460 against

00:39:49.060 hope

00:39:49.400 they're

00:39:49.900 going

00:39:50.020 to

00:39:50.080 be

00:39:50.240 safe

00:39:50.520 if

00:39:50.660 they

00:39:50.760 just

00:39:50.920 follow

00:39:51.160 directions.

00:39:52.240 In the

00:39:53.000 aftermath

00:39:53.300 of

00:39:53.540 September

00:39:53.820 11th,

00:39:54.600 everyone

00:39:55.040 probably

00:39:56.060 on

00:39:56.340 Earth

00:39:56.780 who

00:39:58.020 heard

00:39:58.280 about

00:39:58.560 it

00:39:58.740 understood

00:39:59.340 that

00:40:00.320 there's

00:40:01.200 a very

00:40:01.600 different

00:40:01.920 logic

00:40:02.340 once

00:40:02.960 that

00:40:03.500 plane

00:40:03.800 is

00:40:03.960 flying.

00:40:04.980 The

00:40:05.120 moment

00:40:05.400 somebody

00:40:05.780 stands

00:40:06.160 up,

00:40:06.660 whatever

00:40:06.980 they're

00:40:07.280 saying,

00:40:07.880 whatever

00:40:08.120 their

00:40:08.420 rationale,

00:40:09.760 you're

00:40:10.200 going to

00:40:10.480 gouge 1.00

00:40:10.840 their fucking 1.00

00:40:11.280 eyes out 1.00

00:40:11.900 and you're

00:40:12.800 going to

00:40:12.960 all do

00:40:13.420 it at

00:40:13.680 once.

00:40:15.100 It's

00:40:15.940 just raw

00:40:17.900 animal

00:40:18.580 response

00:40:19.460 to an

00:40:21.360 absolute

00:40:21.840 imperative.

00:40:23.080 There's no

00:40:23.940 negotiating in

00:40:25.400 that situation.

00:40:26.480 There's nothing

00:40:26.980 to believe.

00:40:28.360 The person

00:40:28.800 who has

00:40:29.100 advertised his

00:40:30.060 intention to

00:40:30.620 take over

00:40:30.960 the plane

00:40:31.440 has to be

00:40:32.840 overcome

00:40:33.620 immediately.

00:40:34.320 now I

00:40:36.200 would

00:40:36.380 recommend

00:40:36.820 that we

00:40:38.000 have that

00:40:38.420 attitude

00:40:38.920 on the

00:40:39.560 ground

00:40:39.960 in an

00:40:41.200 active

00:40:41.500 shooter

00:40:41.820 situation

00:40:42.420 when

00:40:43.300 running

00:40:43.860 isn't

00:40:44.760 the

00:40:45.060 option.

00:40:45.920 So yes,

00:40:47.280 if you

00:40:47.480 can get

00:40:47.720 away,

00:40:48.340 by all

00:40:48.720 means get

00:40:49.060 away,

00:40:49.960 but if

00:40:50.320 you're

00:40:50.580 stuck in

00:40:51.080 a classroom

00:40:51.740 or stuck

00:40:52.500 in a

00:40:52.740 movie

00:40:52.940 theater

00:40:53.240 and

00:40:54.160 someone

00:40:54.860 is just

00:40:55.300 shooting,

00:40:56.900 which is

00:40:57.440 to say

00:40:57.640 they've

00:40:57.900 already

00:40:58.360 advertised

00:40:58.880 their

00:40:59.380 intention 0.97

00:40:59.840 to kill 1.00

00:41:00.660 people 0.99

00:41:01.400 for no

00:41:02.160 good

00:41:02.360 reason,

00:41:03.380 then we

00:41:05.080 have a

00:41:06.180 real

00:41:07.580 coordination

00:41:08.060 problem

00:41:08.720 that can

00:41:09.300 be solved

00:41:10.020 and it

00:41:10.280 can be

00:41:10.560 solved

00:41:10.900 exactly

00:41:11.340 the way

00:41:11.700 it's

00:41:11.860 now

00:41:12.080 solved

00:41:12.620 in

00:41:13.320 an

00:41:13.440 airplane,

00:41:14.040 which is

00:41:14.580 everyone,

00:41:15.320 you have

00:41:15.940 to recognize

00:41:16.620 that it

00:41:17.780 doesn't matter

00:41:18.140 who this

00:41:18.480 person is,

00:41:19.080 it doesn't

00:41:19.220 matter how

00:41:20.740 well-armed

00:41:21.600 he is,

00:41:22.040 it doesn't

00:41:22.280 matter how

00:41:22.600 big he

00:41:23.000 is,

00:41:23.220 it doesn't

00:41:23.400 matter how

00:41:23.820 well-trained

00:41:24.740 he is,

00:41:25.740 there's no

00:41:26.320 one who

00:41:27.000 can deal

00:41:27.520 with ten

00:41:28.240 people

00:41:28.760 simultaneously

00:41:29.820 swarming

00:41:30.920 him.

00:41:31.540 It doesn't

00:41:31.860 matter if

00:41:32.200 he's a

00:41:32.400 member of

00:41:32.780 SEAL

00:41:32.980 Team 6,

00:41:34.160 if it's

00:41:34.520 just bodies

00:41:35.260 everywhere

00:41:36.040 pummeling

00:41:37.180 him,

00:41:38.220 the unarmed

00:41:39.200 crowd is

00:41:39.920 going to

00:41:40.260 win,

00:41:41.200 and it

00:41:41.520 is just,

00:41:42.460 the problem

00:41:43.020 in those

00:41:43.320 situations is

00:41:44.000 no one

00:41:44.580 wants to

00:41:45.060 be the

00:41:45.320 first to

00:41:45.680 get shot, 0.94

00:41:46.320 right,

00:41:46.560 but if

00:41:47.320 the person

00:41:47.700 is already

00:41:48.140 shooting

00:41:48.440 people and 0.99

00:41:49.560 there's no

00:41:49.860 running away,

00:41:51.240 we have to

00:41:51.980 solve that

00:41:52.380 coordination

00:41:52.820 problem,

00:41:53.380 and so,

00:41:53.660 I mean,

00:41:53.900 that is

00:41:54.120 advice that

00:41:55.420 is completely

00:41:56.440 useless for 0.93

00:41:57.260 eight-year-olds, 0.99

00:41:58.100 but it is,

00:41:59.420 it's not

00:41:59.900 useless for

00:42:00.500 16-year-olds, 0.99

00:42:01.360 right,

00:42:01.500 so that's

00:42:01.760 the one

00:42:02.100 thing I

00:42:03.080 guess I

00:42:03.500 would add

00:42:04.060 for the

00:42:04.760 school scenario

00:42:05.940 when you're

00:42:06.960 talking about

00:42:07.240 high school.

00:42:08.080 I might add

00:42:08.400 one thing to

00:42:08.880 your addition

00:42:09.320 too,

00:42:09.900 which is

00:42:10.700 that you

00:42:11.780 pointed out

00:42:12.600 that this is

00:42:13.060 what you do

00:42:13.560 if you can't

00:42:14.280 run.

00:42:15.300 One thing you

00:42:15.880 can do in

00:42:17.180 terms of the

00:42:17.620 architecture and

00:42:18.200 planning of

00:42:18.600 schools is make

00:42:19.540 sure there aren't

00:42:20.140 places where you

00:42:20.860 can't run.

00:42:22.080 I mean,

00:42:22.580 Ted Cruz

00:42:23.200 suggested having

00:42:24.600 a single door,

00:42:25.740 and he added that

00:42:26.680 it should be a

00:42:27.120 single door for

00:42:27.640 entry and for

00:42:28.320 egress from the

00:42:29.140 school,

00:42:29.400 and that's

00:42:31.100 one reason why

00:42:31.780 this is a

00:42:32.200 terrible idea.

00:42:33.280 I mean,

00:42:33.520 you need to,

00:42:34.800 not just for

00:42:35.580 shooting,

00:42:36.700 but for

00:42:37.040 fires and

00:42:38.020 other reasons,

00:42:39.800 you need to have

00:42:40.420 ways in and

00:42:41.200 ways out.

00:42:41.700 You want to

00:42:41.980 have as few

00:42:42.720 places,

00:42:43.880 a few calls to

00:42:44.500 sack as

00:42:44.920 possible,

00:42:45.320 where a guy

00:42:46.800 with an AR-15

00:42:47.840 can be barricaded

00:42:49.120 into a room

00:42:50.140 with eight-year-olds.

00:42:51.200 So the very

00:42:52.500 fact that we

00:42:52.940 would be

00:42:53.280 suggesting that

00:42:53.960 we'd have

00:42:54.400 one way in,

00:42:55.740 one way out

00:42:56.260 for the school

00:42:56.960 tells me that

00:42:58.060 we're in a

00:42:58.820 kind of

00:42:59.140 September 11

00:42:59.920 mentality,

00:43:01.420 where we're

00:43:02.320 thinking of

00:43:02.840 what specifically

00:43:04.080 would we have

00:43:04.980 liked?

00:43:05.220 We would have

00:43:05.520 liked to have

00:43:06.240 some static

00:43:08.260 defense force

00:43:09.620 at the front

00:43:10.440 of the school.

00:43:11.200 Well,

00:43:11.820 guess what?

00:43:12.340 A, that's

00:43:13.180 not plausible

00:43:14.320 to have at

00:43:15.020 every school

00:43:15.460 at all times,

00:43:16.540 and B,

00:43:17.020 there's going

00:43:17.540 to be a lot

00:43:18.520 of trade-offs

00:43:19.020 there,

00:43:19.700 where instead

00:43:20.360 what you want

00:43:20.900 is ways

00:43:21.720 for people

00:43:22.140 to get out,

00:43:22.820 which, of

00:43:23.680 course, has

00:43:24.000 the added

00:43:25.280 upside of

00:43:26.500 making the

00:43:27.080 school more

00:43:27.620 open, more

00:43:28.300 pleasant, and

00:43:29.120 more like a

00:43:30.020 school and less

00:43:30.520 like a prison.

00:43:31.280 So I think

00:43:32.300 really thinking

00:43:33.940 carefully about

00:43:34.840 how we react

00:43:36.760 to this and

00:43:37.280 not doing it 1.00

00:43:37.960 in a stupid 1.00

00:43:38.340 way. 1.00

00:43:38.840 I mean, I

00:43:39.520 mentioned in

00:43:40.200 my piece

00:43:40.800 a maxim that

00:43:42.380 the cryptographer

00:43:43.720 and security

00:43:44.380 engineer Bruce

00:43:45.400 Schneier had

00:43:46.100 after September

00:43:46.740 11, where he's

00:43:48.180 pushed for a

00:43:48.660 long time,

00:43:49.040 saying what you

00:43:49.740 want is a

00:43:50.620 security system

00:43:51.240 that fails

00:43:51.760 well.

00:43:52.780 So if it

00:43:53.400 doesn't work,

00:43:54.540 then the

00:43:55.640 outcome is

00:43:56.600 not a

00:43:57.740 total loss.

00:43:58.820 So if you

00:43:59.360 have a

00:44:00.420 single door

00:44:00.920 to get in

00:44:01.460 and an

00:44:02.120 armed security

00:44:02.680 guard, then

00:44:03.600 if the

00:44:05.360 shooter is

00:44:05.920 able to

00:44:06.160 ambush that

00:44:06.640 security guard

00:44:07.160 and get in,

00:44:08.020 then the

00:44:08.300 fact that

00:44:08.600 he's trapped

00:44:09.180 inside the

00:44:09.660 school with

00:44:10.060 all the

00:44:10.280 kids is

00:44:10.660 not ideal.

00:44:12.120 So instead

00:44:12.560 you should

00:44:13.380 organize this

00:44:14.540 school in

00:44:15.940 such a way

00:44:16.620 that there's

00:44:17.180 lots of ways

00:44:17.740 out, so

00:44:18.340 that once

00:44:18.640 he gets

00:44:18.920 in there,

00:44:19.240 even if

00:44:19.620 he managed

00:44:20.520 to get the

00:44:20.860 jump on the

00:44:21.300 one security

00:44:21.820 guard or the

00:44:22.740 two security

00:44:23.240 guards in the

00:44:24.200 single point of

00:44:25.020 entry, then as

00:44:26.400 soon as those

00:44:26.980 gunshots ring

00:44:28.280 out, then that

00:44:29.500 school just

00:44:30.000 empties out and

00:44:30.820 every kid runs

00:44:31.740 for his life.

00:44:33.200 That's a very

00:44:34.700 robust security

00:44:35.560 system.

00:44:36.060 It's kind of the

00:44:36.840 opposite of what's

00:44:37.600 being proposed

00:44:38.260 right now.

00:44:39.020 So yet another

00:44:40.180 reason to think

00:44:40.860 that making

00:44:42.300 decisions in the

00:44:43.020 aftermath of a

00:44:43.820 school shooting

00:44:44.360 is a terrible

00:44:45.860 way to go

00:44:46.580 forward.

00:44:47.760 Again, we're

00:44:48.040 focusing here on

00:44:49.340 a mass shooting

00:44:50.780 and the worst

00:44:52.480 possible type of

00:44:53.460 mass shooting,

00:44:54.100 a school shooting.

00:44:55.520 So you've all

00:44:57.120 these happened,

00:44:58.280 I think, two

00:44:58.920 weeks after

00:44:59.560 Buffalo where

00:45:00.500 many grown-ups

00:45:02.480 were killed in

00:45:03.280 a market and

00:45:05.320 that was a

00:45:06.240 racist-inspired

00:45:07.920 atrocity.

00:45:10.000 I guess it's

00:45:11.160 worth differentiating

00:45:12.260 the sources of

00:45:14.640 violence here

00:45:15.360 because, again,

00:45:16.720 now we're talking

00:45:17.440 about mass

00:45:17.920 shootings, which

00:45:18.520 are, it sounds

00:45:20.220 crass to say it,

00:45:21.720 especially in the

00:45:22.280 aftermath of a

00:45:23.260 tragedy like this,

00:45:24.060 but this is a

00:45:24.980 rounding error on

00:45:26.360 the problem of

00:45:27.020 gun violence.

00:45:27.760 There will be more 0.83

00:45:28.740 kids killed, 0.97

00:45:30.500 probably even in a

00:45:32.040 single city like

00:45:33.260 Chicago this

00:45:34.440 weekend, by

00:45:35.780 ordinary handgun

00:45:37.660 violence of a

00:45:38.940 sort that we're

00:45:39.880 all too familiar

00:45:40.600 with and all too

00:45:42.580 ignorant of at the 0.62

00:45:43.960 same time. 0.98

00:45:44.620 We're not paying

00:45:46.340 attention to

00:45:46.980 inner-city

00:45:47.380 violence, and

00:45:48.880 it's just in the

00:45:50.680 background, and

00:45:51.960 it's disproportionately

00:45:53.380 young black men 1.00

00:45:54.740 killing young black 1.00

00:45:55.740 men for no good 1.00

00:45:57.020 reason in cities

00:45:58.320 all over America.

00:45:59.800 And if you're not

00:46:01.160 going to get a

00:46:01.500 handle on that,

00:46:02.280 you're not going to

00:46:03.020 change the outlier

00:46:04.200 status of America

00:46:05.840 in the world with

00:46:07.420 respect to gun

00:46:08.560 homicide.

00:46:09.320 But when we're

00:46:09.980 talking about a

00:46:11.200 mass shooting like

00:46:13.100 Uvalde or

00:46:14.000 Buffalo, these can

00:46:15.880 have very different

00:46:16.740 characters.

00:46:17.440 I mean, in my

00:46:18.400 mind, there's at

00:46:18.820 least three different

00:46:19.920 sources of

00:46:21.260 violence, and

00:46:22.500 they're highly

00:46:23.140 non-analogous, but

00:46:24.260 they can be

00:46:25.320 overlapping, and

00:46:26.600 therefore an event

00:46:28.160 like this can be

00:46:28.820 over-determined.

00:46:30.260 So in one case,

00:46:31.240 you have just

00:46:32.440 frank mental 1.00

00:46:33.240 illness. 1.00

00:46:33.940 You have somebody 0.99

00:46:34.600 who is deranged

00:46:35.840 and whose reasons

00:46:38.380 for doing what

00:46:39.100 they're doing are

00:46:40.660 totally uninteresting

00:46:42.400 and probably

00:46:43.900 inarticulate, right?

00:46:45.800 I mean, if we

00:46:46.340 asked Adam Lanza

00:46:47.500 why he killed

00:46:49.020 all those kids

00:46:49.920 and teachers

00:46:50.660 at Sandy Hook,

00:46:51.920 he would probably

00:46:52.880 have had nothing

00:46:54.060 intelligible to say,

00:46:55.840 right?

00:46:56.120 He was clearly 0.99

00:46:56.980 mentally ill, 0.98

00:46:58.340 and that might

00:46:59.500 have been the

00:46:59.840 case with the

00:47:01.480 Uvalde shooter

00:47:02.240 or not.

00:47:03.800 I don't think we

00:47:04.360 know at this point.

00:47:05.580 So how we respond

00:47:06.760 to that problem

00:47:07.600 in our society,

00:47:08.560 how we flag

00:47:09.700 these people

00:47:10.380 early and

00:47:11.560 intrude in their

00:47:12.300 lives in such

00:47:12.980 a way as to

00:47:13.460 reduce the risk

00:47:14.220 of anyone

00:47:15.260 coming to harm

00:47:16.060 on the basis

00:47:17.080 of their mental 0.85

00:47:17.600 illness, that is

00:47:18.760 its own separate

00:47:20.020 problem, which is

00:47:21.620 worth figuring

00:47:22.440 out if possible.

00:47:24.180 But it's a

00:47:25.580 different problem

00:47:26.280 from the problem

00:47:27.380 of comparatively

00:47:28.860 normal people.

00:47:30.540 It's hard to

00:47:31.340 think of someone

00:47:32.020 being normal who

00:47:33.140 would commit a

00:47:33.760 mass shooting,

00:47:34.420 but comparatively

00:47:35.520 normal people who,

00:47:36.860 you know, they're

00:47:37.140 not delusional,

00:47:37.840 they're not

00:47:38.440 obviously mentally

00:47:39.300 ill, they're 0.99

00:47:39.800 high-functioning

00:47:40.700 perhaps in other

00:47:41.680 modes in their

00:47:42.460 lives, but they

00:47:43.720 can be in the

00:47:44.580 grip of an

00:47:45.280 ideology that

00:47:46.840 causes them to

00:47:47.620 do something

00:47:48.100 horrendous because

00:47:49.020 this is what they

00:47:50.440 think is important

00:47:52.220 to do, right?

00:47:53.100 I mean, in a

00:47:54.820 Muslim context,

00:47:56.280 they could be

00:47:56.740 jihadists.

00:47:58.100 I don't know

00:47:59.240 enough about the

00:48:00.180 buffalo shooter.

00:48:01.620 Perhaps he was

00:48:02.540 also mentally 0.71

00:48:03.440 ill, but it's 0.93

00:48:05.100 totally possible for

00:48:06.020 someone to be a

00:48:06.980 white supremacist 1.00

00:48:08.380 asshole in 1.00

00:48:09.600 extremis who 1.00

00:48:10.940 decides to kill 0.99

00:48:12.300 people for 1.00

00:48:13.560 patently racist

00:48:15.120 reasons, and

00:48:16.880 yet if you had

00:48:17.980 psychometric data

00:48:19.500 on this person,

00:48:20.940 you would not

00:48:21.540 diagnose a mental

00:48:22.540 illness, right?

00:48:23.500 Yeah, that's right.

00:48:24.600 So those are very

00:48:25.080 different situations,

00:48:26.220 and we have to

00:48:27.260 talk about them

00:48:28.120 differently.

00:48:29.660 I read the

00:48:30.640 whole manifesto

00:48:31.740 of the shooter in

00:48:32.920 Buffalo, and I can

00:48:35.000 say with some

00:48:35.440 confidence, unless

00:48:38.040 you're going to

00:48:38.460 go reading his

00:48:39.700 4chan posts or

00:48:41.420 his email, then

00:48:42.520 there's no way

00:48:42.960 you're going to

00:48:43.240 detect that this 0.98

00:48:44.180 guy is so crazy

00:48:45.620 that you definitely 0.97

00:48:46.240 should not sell

00:48:46.860 him a gun.

00:48:47.920 Whereas in the

00:48:48.420 case of the

00:48:49.000 Uvalde shooter, I

00:48:50.260 think it's pretty

00:48:50.780 clear that he was

00:48:52.460 unwell.

00:48:53.800 His coworkers at

00:48:55.160 Wendy's thought he

00:48:55.900 was crazy.

00:48:57.020 There was a

00:48:57.440 chance, a chance

00:48:59.020 anyway, that an

00:49:00.820 inquiry into his

00:49:01.880 mental well-being

00:49:03.160 would have detected

00:49:03.920 that maybe he

00:49:04.520 shouldn't have an

00:49:05.220 AR-15.

00:49:06.120 So I think there

00:49:07.140 are distinctions

00:49:07.580 like that to be

00:49:08.760 made.

00:49:09.780 I mean, one thing

00:49:10.740 that's, I mean,

00:49:11.700 the Buffalo shooter,

00:49:12.860 he spends a long

00:49:13.560 time in his

00:49:14.240 manifesto describing

00:49:15.620 his kit, what he's

00:49:18.300 bought in terms of

00:49:20.160 armor, weaponry, and

00:49:21.840 so forth, what he's

00:49:22.660 planning to do.

00:49:23.860 And he killed about

00:49:25.640 10 people.

00:49:26.940 In Uvalde, the guy

00:49:28.520 who was far less

00:49:30.280 equipped, far less

00:49:31.800 knowledgeable about

00:49:32.460 his weapon, killed

00:49:33.660 20.

00:49:34.420 So going back

00:49:35.840 briefly just to the

00:49:37.100 questions of what

00:49:38.540 the response can be,

00:49:40.100 in other words,

00:49:40.800 someone who really

00:49:41.460 knew what he was

00:49:41.960 doing, or at least

00:49:43.240 somewhat knew what

00:49:43.760 he was doing,

00:49:44.220 compared to someone

00:49:44.680 who didn't know

00:49:45.040 what he was doing,

00:49:45.940 nonetheless killed

00:49:46.600 far fewer people.

00:49:47.780 And I think that's

00:49:48.620 because in a

00:49:49.600 supermarket, anybody

00:49:50.340 who could run, ran.

00:49:52.220 And then in

00:49:52.520 Uvalde, because they 0.98

00:49:53.860 were kids, and they

00:49:54.920 were told to stay

00:49:55.460 put and wait, and

00:49:56.720 the doors were

00:49:57.220 locked so nobody

00:49:58.000 could come in and

00:49:59.140 save them.

00:49:59.800 And then the cops,

00:50:00.380 for horrifying,

00:50:02.500 seemingly negligent

00:50:03.280 reasons, did not

00:50:03.900 do so.

00:50:05.040 Yeah, we will get

00:50:05.800 to that.

00:50:06.240 That's the thing

00:50:07.000 that just pushes

00:50:07.920 this so far over

00:50:09.500 the edge for me

00:50:10.160 as a news story.

00:50:12.260 Yeah.

00:50:12.780 Your point, though,

00:50:13.440 is totally right.

00:50:15.160 If we're thinking

00:50:16.320 about how do we

00:50:17.040 keep guns out of

00:50:18.540 the hands of people

00:50:19.480 who are going to

00:50:19.880 use them in

00:50:20.880 homicidal ways,

00:50:22.100 then you have to

00:50:23.640 reckon with the

00:50:24.380 actual people who

00:50:25.160 are doing this.

00:50:26.100 And in the case

00:50:27.060 of Buffalo, I

00:50:28.200 just don't think

00:50:29.120 that there was

00:50:29.560 any way where,

00:50:31.200 you know, if he

00:50:32.000 had to go and

00:50:33.000 have an interview

00:50:33.560 with the chief of

00:50:34.320 police where he

00:50:35.320 lived to show that

00:50:36.600 he wasn't totally

00:50:37.240 crazy, I bet he

00:50:37.980 would have passed 0.96

00:50:38.480 the interview.

00:50:39.520 So, you know,

00:50:40.200 where does that

00:50:40.640 leave us?

00:50:41.040 Whereas the guy

00:50:42.780 in Uvalde, I

00:50:43.880 like to think that

00:50:44.820 a 15-minute

00:50:46.620 conversation with

00:50:48.100 someone used to

00:50:49.060 having those

00:50:49.460 conversations would

00:50:50.320 have revealed that

00:50:50.940 maybe this guy

00:50:51.620 should be looked

00:50:52.440 into a bit before

00:50:53.240 he's given an

00:50:54.400 AR-15.

00:50:54.920 Yeah, and that

00:50:56.320 certainly seemed to

00:50:56.980 be the case with

00:50:57.620 someone like Adam

00:50:58.260 Lanza or, who

00:51:00.880 was it, was it

00:51:01.420 James Holmes and

00:51:03.420 Jared Loeffner.

00:51:04.700 I mean, those guys

00:51:05.320 were just properly 0.95

00:51:06.840 bonkers and alarming 0.67

00:51:09.380 everyone with how 0.98

00:51:10.500 crazy they were.

00:51:12.260 And so, you know, 0.63

00:51:12.980 this raises the

00:51:14.220 issue of red flag

00:51:15.780 policies and just

00:51:16.740 what sort of

00:51:17.140 intervention is

00:51:17.780 possible when, you

00:51:19.300 know, even

00:51:19.600 somebody's mom is

00:51:21.240 terrified that they're

00:51:22.520 going to commit

00:51:23.620 some harm on the

00:51:24.660 basis of their

00:51:25.420 delusions, there

00:51:27.200 seems to be very

00:51:28.200 little to do,

00:51:29.380 right?

00:51:29.600 It's like you

00:51:29.920 can't, I mean, to

00:51:31.200 incarcerate somebody

00:51:33.340 in a, some kind of

00:51:35.400 mental hospital and

00:51:36.460 hold them there for

00:51:38.960 long periods of time

00:51:40.120 until you're convinced

00:51:42.060 that they pose no

00:51:42.900 risk to society.

00:51:44.940 I don't know where

00:51:45.760 the current laws are

00:51:47.520 state by state, but

00:51:48.480 it seems like we're

00:51:49.160 not in a position to

00:51:50.600 do that at any kind

00:51:51.800 of relevant scale

00:51:53.140 and that, you know,

00:51:54.720 there are civil

00:51:55.620 rights concerns

00:51:56.320 around being able

00:51:57.400 to do that that

00:51:58.220 are an impediment.

00:52:00.520 So, and I guess I,

00:52:01.880 I mean, the thing I,

00:52:03.020 we should also

00:52:03.520 acknowledge is that

00:52:04.220 these different

00:52:05.100 sources of, you

00:52:06.160 know, they're the

00:52:06.740 pure cases of these

00:52:07.920 differences, but then

00:52:08.640 there are cases where

00:52:09.940 these variables overlap

00:52:11.780 where you can have

00:52:12.620 somebody who's, you 0.70

00:52:14.080 know, slightly crazy

00:52:15.200 and who's also

00:52:16.100 ideological, right?

00:52:17.080 Who's also, you

00:52:17.620 so, you know, I mean,

00:52:18.600 there's just, again,

00:52:20.020 there are cases where

00:52:21.120 violence is over

00:52:22.360 determined, but it's

00:52:24.540 worth differentiating

00:52:25.560 the pure cases

00:52:26.340 because they're very

00:52:27.600 different problems.

00:52:28.660 I mean, the problem

00:52:29.300 of a dangerous

00:52:30.800 divisive ideology

00:52:32.060 that is causing

00:52:33.140 even normal people

00:52:34.620 to support violence

00:52:37.240 or even engage in

00:52:38.200 violence that would

00:52:38.900 otherwise be

00:52:39.440 unthinkable, you

00:52:40.500 know, whether this

00:52:41.080 is being leveraged

00:52:43.260 by, you know,

00:52:44.080 religious sectarianism

00:52:45.760 or, you know,

00:52:47.420 racist sectarianism

00:52:49.420 or, you know,

00:52:49.980 some other belief

00:52:50.860 system, I mean,

00:52:51.960 that's its own

00:52:52.500 problem that we

00:52:53.420 have to figure out

00:52:54.040 how to solve.

00:52:55.020 And then there's

00:52:56.280 the problem of 0.73

00:52:57.140 crazy people.

00:52:58.700 Then there's, I 0.80

00:52:59.360 would say that

00:52:59.860 there's a third

00:53:00.760 class of person

00:53:02.080 who's not crazy

00:53:03.800 in the sense that

00:53:04.740 they're delusional, 0.51

00:53:05.860 but they're morally 0.99

00:53:07.660 insane.

00:53:08.540 I mean, there are

00:53:08.880 people who are,

00:53:09.620 you know, actual 0.89

00:53:10.340 psychopaths who are 0.50

00:53:12.360 virtually guaranteed 0.95

00:53:13.760 to harm people

00:53:14.620 in various ways,

00:53:15.520 but they're not

00:53:16.820 delusional, you

00:53:18.020 know, and they're

00:53:18.460 not, and to have

00:53:19.440 a conversation with

00:53:20.280 them is not going

00:53:20.920 to produce, you

00:53:22.340 know, signs of 0.94

00:53:22.940 florid mental illness.

00:53:24.600 You might not 0.99

00:53:25.280 notice anything

00:53:25.900 other than a

00:53:26.900 malignantly self-absorbed 0.98

00:53:29.100 person. 0.93

00:53:30.400 Or more likely,

00:53:31.060 if they're a 0.99

00:53:31.460 psychopath, you'll 0.99

00:53:32.740 enjoy their company

00:53:33.660 on their first

00:53:34.120 conversation and

00:53:35.000 invite them over

00:53:35.720 to your barbecue.

00:53:36.540 Right, right.

00:53:36.940 So it's not

00:53:38.840 likely you're going

00:53:39.300 to catch them

00:53:39.780 either.

00:53:40.400 I mean, I have

00:53:40.960 one idea in this

00:53:42.820 department, though,

00:53:43.540 which is, I

00:53:44.800 acknowledge that we

00:53:45.980 exist in a

00:53:46.700 political reality

00:53:47.540 where it's unlikely

00:53:49.400 that any of the

00:53:50.340 things that I would

00:53:51.380 like to see in the

00:53:52.900 way of gun control

00:53:53.500 are going to change

00:53:54.960 anytime soon.

00:53:55.720 But I do think

00:53:57.040 there might be a

00:53:57.740 small shift in

00:53:59.040 norms that we

00:54:00.280 might be able to

00:54:00.820 see, which is,

00:54:02.480 you know, I'm

00:54:03.480 always impressed

00:54:05.020 when I talk to

00:54:05.740 people who really

00:54:06.720 think about their

00:54:08.500 self-defense,

00:54:09.720 their guns,

00:54:10.860 about how

00:54:12.800 concerned they

00:54:13.960 are about making

00:54:15.080 sure that their

00:54:15.580 guns are kept

00:54:16.060 safely and that

00:54:17.660 nobody gets

00:54:18.140 anywhere near them

00:54:19.160 who isn't

00:54:20.760 supposed to have

00:54:21.220 them.

00:54:21.700 So I wonder if

00:54:23.100 that can be

00:54:23.580 leveraged somewhat.

00:54:25.180 So here's what

00:54:26.100 I'm thinking of.

00:54:27.300 There is someone

00:54:27.960 who sold the

00:54:29.440 Uvalde killer his 0.98

00:54:30.520 guns.

00:54:31.660 And I only wish

00:54:33.580 that whoever that

00:54:34.560 was felt more of

00:54:37.040 an obligation to

00:54:38.280 have a conversation

00:54:39.000 with him and check

00:54:39.900 him out than

00:54:40.740 that person did.

00:54:42.060 And as far as I

00:54:42.920 can tell, much of

00:54:45.420 gun culture ignores

00:54:47.260 that responsibility

00:54:48.060 on the person who

00:54:49.500 is handing off the

00:54:51.100 gun in exchange for

00:54:52.100 money.

00:54:53.220 They'll say, oh,

00:54:54.300 you know, if you're

00:54:55.580 selling someone's

00:54:56.180 steak knives, you

00:54:56.840 don't check out to

00:54:57.720 see whether that

00:54:58.220 person is planning to

00:54:59.580 use them to murder 0.99

00:55:00.840 his wife. 1.00

00:55:01.680 I think that norm

00:55:03.120 should change.

00:55:04.460 And whoever sold

00:55:05.680 those guns probably 0.98

00:55:07.660 should, well, that

00:55:09.300 person's name should

00:55:09.980 be known.

00:55:10.980 I'm sure that person

00:55:11.560 already feels plenty

00:55:12.780 bad, but I think that

00:55:14.940 person should probably

00:55:15.740 feel worse.

00:55:17.120 And that should be

00:55:18.820 the expectation, that

00:55:20.340 if you're going to be

00:55:21.200 in the business of

00:55:21.840 selling people guns,

00:55:22.600 you're going to be in

00:55:23.240 the business of making

00:55:24.900 sure that you're

00:55:25.520 selling the people you

00:55:26.260 trust, which currently

00:55:28.040 does not seem to be the

00:55:29.120 norm, but maybe we

00:55:30.060 could push it there and

00:55:30.680 it would require no

00:55:31.440 legislation to do so.

00:55:32.840 Yeah, yeah.

00:55:34.520 And maybe there's a

00:55:35.400 role for insurance and

00:55:38.300 liabilities around this

00:55:41.120 happening, right?

00:55:41.960 If you're selling people

00:55:42.760 guns and one of those

00:55:44.440 people turns out to be a

00:55:47.060 mass shooter, well, then

00:55:49.060 maybe you're liable in

00:55:52.460 some sense, right?

00:55:53.640 And then there would be an

00:55:56.780 industry of insurance,

00:55:57.980 presumably, that would

00:55:58.660 grow up around that.

00:55:59.520 And, you know, just the

00:56:01.200 cost of, I mean, there

00:56:03.420 could be creative ways to

00:56:05.260 make things expensive.

00:56:07.140 I mean, one of the

00:56:07.540 things about the

00:56:08.940 Evaldi shooter that was

00:56:11.380 so surprising to many

00:56:13.760 people is just how many

00:56:14.560 rounds of ammo he had

00:56:16.500 on him, right?

00:56:17.240 He had over something

00:56:18.280 like 1,600 rounds, you

00:56:19.940 know, in the school.

00:56:21.540 I think he shot some

00:56:23.480 hundreds.

00:56:24.260 I think he shot like at

00:56:25.140 least 150 rounds.

00:56:26.960 And, you know, he

00:56:28.120 apparently had magazines

00:56:29.420 everywhere.

00:56:30.520 I think he shot about

00:56:31.140 100 in the first three

00:56:32.120 minutes.

00:56:32.720 Right.

00:56:32.960 Which, by the way, means

00:56:33.760 that he was deaf.

00:56:36.100 There's no way you can

00:56:37.140 fire that many at that

00:56:38.960 speed and still be hearing

00:56:40.580 things that are going on

00:56:41.420 around you, unless you've

00:56:42.380 muffled your ears, in

00:56:43.260 which case you're also not

00:56:45.060 hearing things going on

00:56:45.840 around you.

00:56:46.420 Yeah, well, no, I don't

00:56:48.080 know if any of these guys

00:56:48.920 show up with ear protection.

00:56:50.840 But it's, and that speaks

00:56:53.820 to the possible advantage of

00:56:56.560 having a law against a high

00:56:58.480 capacity magazines.

00:57:00.480 I mean, there are many

00:57:01.140 people who would emphasize

00:57:02.700 that here, that the

00:57:03.880 difference between having,

00:57:04.820 you know, 10 rounds before

00:57:06.260 you go empty and having, in

00:57:08.380 the case of an AR-15, you

00:57:10.320 know, 30 or more rounds.

00:57:12.260 It's potentially a big

00:57:13.420 difference, except if someone

00:57:14.500 has any kind of training,

00:57:15.820 you know, that the break, the

00:57:17.960 time it takes to pop in a new

00:57:19.860 magazine is very brief.

00:57:22.260 So unless somebody is standing

00:57:23.560 right next to them, unharmed,

00:57:25.320 and ready to gouge their

00:57:26.520 eyes out during that brief

00:57:28.080 pause, it's not a panacea to

00:57:30.660 have only 10-round magazines.

00:57:33.420 And so the question is, you

00:57:35.840 know, in what context does it

00:57:37.800 make sense to own thousands of

00:57:40.080 rounds of ammunition if you're

00:57:42.140 a non-maniac?

00:57:44.100 There's a very clear case in a

00:57:46.240 training context, you know, i.e.

00:57:48.780 at a shooting range.

00:57:50.060 But there's not really a clear

00:57:51.380 case out in the world, right?

00:57:53.920 So I guess, I forget who

00:57:55.600 expressed this idea somewhere

00:57:57.300 recently, I think it was on a

00:57:58.240 podcast, the idea that you

00:57:59.760 could make ammunition much,

00:58:02.540 much more expensive than it is

00:58:04.220 so that it would just be just

00:58:05.580 fundamentally unfeasible to have

00:58:08.540 hundreds, much less thousands

00:58:10.060 of rounds of ammunition out in

00:58:11.700 the world.

00:58:12.520 But you could exempt shooting

00:58:15.000 ranges so that you could

00:58:16.700 actually go to a range, you

00:58:18.140 could practice, you could

00:58:18.920 shoot hundreds of rounds at

00:58:20.800 normal expense.

00:58:21.640 But there'd be some way to

00:58:23.620 actually not, to have, you

00:58:25.180 know, to ensure that people

00:58:26.720 couldn't take hundreds of

00:58:28.120 rounds away from a shooting

00:58:29.300 range.

00:58:30.280 And, you know, out in the

00:58:31.280 world, you know, if every round

00:58:33.580 cost $30 or whatever it is,

00:58:36.920 presumably you would not have

00:58:37.980 someone show up with hundreds

00:58:39.280 of rounds of ammunition.

00:58:41.020 You know, that's just one idea

00:58:42.840 that had never occurred to me.

00:58:44.500 And perhaps there are other

00:58:45.380 ideas like that.

00:58:46.360 Again, if you've managed to lock

00:58:49.360 yourself in a room with a dozen

00:58:52.180 kids and you have, you know,

00:58:55.240 some dozens of rounds of

00:58:56.760 ammunition, you're going to be 1.00

00:58:58.360 able to kill all those kids 1.00

00:58:59.520 with whatever gun you have. 1.00

00:59:02.200 And so that's just the problem

00:59:03.700 of guns, period, right?

00:59:05.860 It's not a problem of assault

00:59:08.480 weapons and it's not a problem of

00:59:10.160 high-capacity magazines.

00:59:12.080 And until we get our heads

00:59:13.300 around that or get our heads

00:59:15.720 around the impossibility of

00:59:17.520 responding adequately to that

00:59:19.920 challenge, we're really not

00:59:21.520 thinking about the problem of

00:59:23.100 gun violence in America.

00:59:25.720 Unless you want to say more on

00:59:26.760 that topic, the thing I think we

00:59:28.360 really must talk about.

00:59:29.780 I'll just point out one thing.

00:59:32.700 The idea of making ammunition

00:59:34.360 more expensive may have just

00:59:35.640 occurred to you, but it's part of

00:59:36.980 a Chris Rock routine, I believe,

00:59:38.400 where he says something.

00:59:39.760 You can have all the guns you

00:59:40.960 want, but let's have a tax of 0.97

00:59:43.440 one million dollars per bullet.

00:59:45.500 Right, right, right.

00:59:46.180 That'll just take care of

00:59:47.160 everything.

00:59:47.780 Yeah, yeah.

00:59:49.260 I mean, maybe there's

00:59:50.160 something there, but again,

00:59:53.140 it's easy to see how, if

00:59:55.420 you're determined to get lots

00:59:56.840 of ammo, you're going to be

00:59:57.800 able to do that in America.

01:00:00.220 So the thing that makes the

01:00:01.880 Evaldi story so shattering for

01:00:05.720 many of us

01:00:06.920 honestly, I'm not even sure I can

01:00:19.400 talk about it.

01:00:20.940 Do you want me to

01:00:22.100 intro it?

01:00:24.940 I just have to get the tears

01:00:26.480 back in my head.

01:00:27.840 We can either take a second or I can...

01:00:29.960 Yeah, no, you take the lead.

01:00:31.540 I'll compose myself.

01:00:32.600 I mean, the Evaldi story is, it's

01:00:35.240 still coming out, of course, but

01:00:36.360 the thing that is going to haunt

01:00:38.300 us forever is what we now know

01:00:40.340 about the tick-tock of the

01:00:42.260 response, you know, what happened

01:00:44.400 play-by-play, which included a

01:00:47.220 really long time when the police

01:00:49.800 were apparently there, the shooter

01:00:51.840 was still active, the shooter was

01:00:53.800 still killing, and some of the kids

01:00:56.340 were actually on 9-1-1 for the

01:00:58.780 better part of an hour saying, save

01:01:00.800 us, and 19 police officers were in

01:01:04.260 the hall not saving them.

01:01:06.440 And, you know, the Texas authorities

01:01:08.380 say they made the wrong decision, no

01:01:10.700 kidding, but that decision was to

01:01:13.160 treat this as if it was no longer an

01:01:15.980 active shooter scenario, but a guy

01:01:17.780 barricaded in a classroom with nobody

01:01:20.000 else.

01:01:21.000 So my understanding is the first 9-1-1

01:01:23.200 call came in at 1130, and then by

01:01:26.860 1135 or so, there were already

01:01:29.620 police who were there, and then by

01:01:31.640 12 o'clock, after which hundreds of

01:01:34.460 rounds have gone off, there were 19

01:01:37.080 officers in the hallway, and it took

01:01:39.280 until 1250 before Border Patrol showed

01:01:42.840 up, and it sounds like at this point

01:01:45.620 it was them just saying, we're just

01:01:48.860 going to do this, and going in at 1250,

01:01:52.420 having acquired the key to the room, and 0.78

01:01:54.900 then killing the suspect, who it sounds

01:01:57.680 like now jumped out from a closet

01:01:59.520 door, but we as a society are going to

01:02:02.620 be thinking for a long time about how

01:02:04.920 it can have gotten that bad, the

01:02:08.120 response, and it's at this point just

01:02:11.380 days later, it's still gutting to

01:02:13.540 imagine what those minutes were like for

01:02:16.240 the kids, some of whom survived, and

01:02:17.840 then some of whom died because of the

01:02:20.320 delay in that response.

01:02:21.200 Yeah, and then there's this video of the

01:02:24.260 police keeping the parents out while

01:02:27.600 this is going down, right, so they say

01:02:29.120 perhaps you've been able to characterize

01:02:31.040 this video, I've seen this video, which

01:02:33.500 is perhaps the most infuriating thing I've

01:02:35.560 ever laid eyes on, I worried that I

01:02:38.120 didn't know exactly when this footage

01:02:41.320 was shot, and maybe there's some way in

01:02:43.980 which, you know, I just don't have the

01:02:45.800 right frame around it, but if in fact this

01:02:48.380 is during those, I think, 78 minutes

01:02:50.600 when, you know, there's still kids who

01:02:53.680 are getting killed, and there are now

01:02:56.440 cops there with, you know, full tactical

01:02:59.400 gear, right, they've got their long guns,

01:03:02.160 they've got their body armor, and many of

01:03:04.600 them are focused on keeping hysterical

01:03:07.440 parents away from the school, right, and

01:03:10.960 you've got 19 of them stacked up in a

01:03:13.160 hallway, not going in to kill this guy,

01:03:16.000 and you've got, I mean, it just, the

01:03:18.520 parents' eye view.

01:03:20.900 I know, like, one of the moms, you may

01:03:23.980 have read, she got the word that this

01:03:26.600 was going down, she got in her car and

01:03:28.540 drove 40 miles, got there, said, I'm

01:03:31.920 going in to save my two kids, and then

01:03:34.700 she was handcuffed. 0.90

01:03:36.040 The Uvalde cops handcuffed her so she

01:03:38.200 wouldn't go in, and then she convinced

01:03:40.280 them to uncuff her, and then wandered 0.89

01:03:43.020 away, and then jumped a fence into the

01:03:45.700 school, got her kids, and ran out.

01:03:47.500 So, and this is all happening before

01:03:50.400 they've neutralized the shooter.

01:03:52.680 So, I mean, there's mom of the year

01:03:55.700 right there, but the idea that parents

01:03:58.620 who were willing to do anything to save

01:04:01.060 their kids were being stopped from doing

01:04:03.060 anything while the police were doing

01:04:05.740 nothing.

01:04:06.680 And this is Texas, right?

01:04:08.100 Okay, so there's two ends of this you

01:04:10.100 can take, and, you know, I guess both

01:04:13.180 have been taken, certainly one has been

01:04:14.920 taken by people who are on the gun

01:04:17.720 safety side of this, and they look at

01:04:20.720 this, they look at, I mean, this is in

01:04:22.200 Texas, right?

01:04:23.020 This is, you know, there is no state where

01:04:25.480 the Second Amendment is trumpeted with

01:04:27.920 more bravado, and this just seems like a

01:04:31.100 reductio ad absurdum of the claim that

01:04:34.360 the, you know, the answer for a bad guy

01:04:35.980 with a gun is a good guy with a gun,

01:04:37.540 because you've got these officers with

01:04:39.620 their guns stacked up in the hallway

01:04:41.260 doing nothing, and, but of course,

01:04:44.480 that's not the whole story.

01:04:46.520 The whole story is, the reason why this

01:04:48.200 situation is so lacerating is because

01:04:51.960 the answer to the bad guy with the gun

01:04:54.960 was a good guy with a gun, and we needed

01:04:57.480 that good guy with a gun 78 minutes

01:04:59.760 earlier, right?

01:05:00.860 And when the good guy with a gun finally 0.99

01:05:03.300 broke through the fucking mesmerism that 0.99

01:05:06.280 had taken over that place and kept those 0.99

01:05:09.460 cops from doing the obvious, and he

01:05:11.940 opened the door and walked in and shot

01:05:13.260 the guy, that was the solution. 0.75

01:05:15.300 That's the solution everyone was pining

01:05:18.060 for and was right to pine for in that

01:05:20.340 situation.

01:05:20.580 And it was trained for as well.

01:05:21.820 Yes.

01:05:22.200 I don't know if you've seen some of this

01:05:23.520 reporting, but journalists, I saw the New

01:05:26.000 York Times got this, they looked at the

01:05:29.100 training that had been done in Uvalde for

01:05:31.420 this kind of scenario, and it was standard.

01:05:33.360 I mean, it's been the protocol since

01:05:35.200 after Columbine that, what do you do if

01:05:37.660 there's an active shooter in the school?

01:05:38.980 You go in, close distance, and neutralize

01:05:41.020 the shooter.

01:05:41.860 And you do that even if it means hopping

01:05:44.100 over the dying bodies of students who

01:05:47.600 have already been shot by him, because

01:05:49.160 there's nothing that matters until that

01:05:51.280 person is no longer shooting.

01:05:52.900 So that you would fall back and wait to

01:05:55.980 see what happens next, turn it into a

01:05:58.200 possible hostage situation, negotiate.

01:06:00.500 This was contrary to the training that

01:06:03.600 they in Uvalde had gotten just a matter

01:06:06.380 of a couple months before.

01:06:07.960 And also, by the way, the training that

01:06:09.440 should be obvious to anyone, even without

01:06:11.000 training, nothing can happen that will be

01:06:13.780 of any use until the person who's murdering

01:06:16.460 people is no longer doing that.

01:06:19.420 So I mean, if anything changes, if anything's

01:06:22.680 going to change as a result of this

01:06:24.680 catastrophe, you've got to think it's going

01:06:27.580 to be that, I mean, it's just people whose

01:06:30.700 job it is to protect schools or, you know,

01:06:34.140 cops who could be summoned to an event like

01:06:37.300 this, everyone now has to know that the

01:06:40.260 barricaded shooter protocol doesn't exist in

01:06:44.900 a school, right?

01:06:46.040 I mean, like, you respond immediately, if even

01:06:49.240 if you're just the, you're not waiting for

01:06:51.280 backup, you know, if you're not going to, if

01:06:53.420 you're not willing to go in alone in a

01:06:55.000 situation like this, you're in the wrong

01:06:56.940 job, right?

01:06:57.920 I got to think that switch is going to get

01:07:00.440 flipped as a result of this.

01:07:02.440 Yeah, I would think so.

01:07:04.120 And almost every law enforcement officer I've

01:07:07.320 met, I'm pretty confident would react the

01:07:11.740 right way.

01:07:12.240 I mean, they certainly seem to be that

01:07:15.400 they've gone into that line of work because

01:07:17.120 they want to protect people in most cases.

01:07:20.680 And there couldn't be a more obvious case

01:07:22.800 than a guy with an AR-15 in an elementary

01:07:24.940 school who's still walking around.

01:07:27.280 I think it might also be useful for that

01:07:31.660 protocol, that post-Columbine protocol to

01:07:34.740 be maybe even better known, despite this

01:07:37.360 counter example.

01:07:39.340 You know, shooters should know, just like

01:07:41.160 hijackers know that they are going to be 0.96

01:07:43.580 torn limb from limb by passengers on an

01:07:46.160 airplane.

01:07:46.860 Shooters should know that here's what's going

01:07:48.500 to happen when you go in. 1.00

01:07:49.860 You're going to kill some people. 0.99

01:07:50.820 The school is going to empty out faster 0.99

01:07:53.120 than you can imagine.

01:07:54.640 And then in a matter of seconds or minutes,

01:07:57.280 you are going to be inundated by people with

01:07:59.280 guns who are trying to kill you.

01:08:00.560 There's not going to be time for you to

01:08:01.860 negotiate, not going to be time for you to

01:08:04.020 record TikTok videos.

01:08:05.900 It's just going to be you with your very

01:08:08.380 short life.

01:08:09.900 And that's not how it was at Uvalde.

01:08:13.500 I hope it can be credibly promised to people

01:08:16.920 who are thinking about this in the future that

01:08:18.320 that's how it will be if they try it.

01:08:19.660 Well, so this opens the door to the much

01:08:22.940 maligned NRA talking point, and I should

01:08:26.000 say, again, defensively that I'm no fan of

01:08:28.560 the NRA, that the answer on some level is

01:08:31.720 more guns, right?

01:08:33.360 And to have teachers with guns or to have,

01:08:36.200 you know, more of a presence at a school.

01:08:39.240 And, you know, again, this sounds grotesquely

01:08:43.180 comical in the immediate aftermath of Uvalde

01:08:46.680 when you have, you know, 19 cops in full gear

01:08:50.600 doing nothing.

01:08:52.420 But, you know, I'm just wondering if there's, I

01:08:56.400 mean, there are two ways we could go here.

01:08:57.980 We could try to imagine a world where we do

01:09:01.260 something akin to what Australia did in the

01:09:04.120 aftermath of a mass shooting, and we just

01:09:07.340 disarm our society fundamentally.

01:09:09.640 And we could talk about a gun buyback and a change

01:09:12.900 of the Second Amendment or, you know, and that

01:09:15.620 politically seems totally hopeless, but perhaps

01:09:20.300 it's not.

01:09:21.720 And perhaps that's the thing people should be

01:09:24.040 focused on.

01:09:25.080 But given that we've got 400 million guns on the

01:09:28.000 ground and it doesn't even seem dimly possible

01:09:31.460 that it will be hard to get your hands on one if you

01:09:34.360 really want to for the foreseeable future, then

01:09:38.240 you have people certainly in gun culture saying,

01:09:41.860 well, the problem is, the problem in this case

01:09:44.060 is that you had cops who shouldn't have been

01:09:46.180 cops, who didn't have the training or didn't have

01:09:49.320 the character or both to respond appropriately.

01:09:53.420 And when somebody responded appropriately, we saw

01:09:55.720 what happened.

01:09:56.400 The Border Patrol agent opened the door and killed

01:09:58.320 the guy, and that should have been done sooner.

01:10:00.280 So that really, the solution was a gun.

01:10:02.660 And I was thinking about another heavily armed

01:10:07.640 society where I don't think things like this

01:10:11.180 happen, and there seem to be cases there where

01:10:15.600 it plays out more or less as the most dewy-eyed

01:10:20.460 NRA enthusiast would imagine.

01:10:23.140 And I'm thinking of Israel.

01:10:25.100 Again, I don't have a lot of data on this, but

01:10:27.100 I've just seen various videos and heard stories

01:10:31.340 where somebody begins killing people, you know, a

01:10:34.900 jihadist of one sort or another starts stabbing

01:10:39.000 people on a sidewalk, and it's, you know, it's

01:10:41.580 about 15 seconds later that somebody pulls out a gun

01:10:43.980 and shoots him.

01:10:44.940 And I'm just wondering, do you know anything about,

01:10:47.300 is there any lesson to draw from Israel for American

01:10:51.400 society, or are there just too many ways in which

01:10:53.800 that is a different case?

01:10:55.760 Man, I've been to Israel, and I've observed this.

01:10:59.560 You go in and, you know, you get a bagel with

01:11:02.060 shmier, and behind the counter, there are two armed

01:11:05.200 men who are making the bagel for you.

01:11:07.140 So it's true that weapons are absolutely everywhere.

01:11:11.620 And in the rare cases where they're needed, they're

01:11:14.980 produced and then often used with great efficiency.

01:11:18.980 So yeah, that's a data point.

01:11:22.040 They're also just rarely abused in the way that they are

01:11:24.460 in the United States.

01:11:26.080 So I suppose that the takeaway from that is that

01:11:29.660 there's not, it's not just the presence of guns, but

01:11:32.460 a culture of guns that we're looking at.

01:11:35.940 That the number of people who have those guns because

01:11:38.840 they are motivated by self-defense, and who have

01:11:44.040 training in most cases because they've been in the

01:11:46.760 military, in many cases that they are combat veterans,

01:11:49.360 is so high that that just makes all the difference.

01:11:53.060 I mean, if in the case of the United States, we've got lots

01:11:57.020 of people who have guns who are totally untrained.

01:12:00.300 I mean, if my concealed carry class last weekend was any

01:12:04.640 indication, then the modal concealed carrier is not

01:12:08.280 John Wick.

01:12:09.800 Yeah.

01:12:10.220 It's a guy who has a pretty good chance of shooting his own

01:12:14.400 hand or foot in ordinary training, and who really has to have

01:12:19.680 rules of firearm safety tattooed on his hand if he's going to

01:12:24.860 be expected to remember them.

01:12:26.700 So I'm not sure how much we can take away as, you know, if we

01:12:31.460 armed the same number of people in the United States as are

01:12:34.020 armed in Israel, I don't think the results would be great.

01:12:37.660 Now, you and I have talked, Sam, about Finland, where there are a lot

01:12:43.480 of armed people, and it's completely anathema to just be walking

01:12:48.480 around with a handgun.

01:12:50.760 So there are ways that, and this is because of Finland's 0.78

01:12:55.560 territorial defense plan, which is to be ready in the event of an

01:13:00.580 invasion to start an insurgency.

01:13:02.900 So almost every man who's under the age of 45 is part of that 0.99

01:13:07.000 defense force in case of, like, a Russian-style invasion, like it

01:13:10.640 happened in the Winter War or Second World War.

01:13:12.800 So I think there are cases where you can see lots of guns everywhere

01:13:18.160 with, as there is in Finland, as there is in Israel, very little

01:13:22.060 abuse of them.

01:13:23.160 But the fact is we don't live in those countries.

01:13:25.660 We live in a country where there's an enormous amount of abuse of

01:13:29.560 guns, crime with guns, and just a lot of guns, 400 million guns.

01:13:34.620 So I'm really hesitant to try to extrapolate from countries that are not

01:13:40.200 ours.

01:13:41.920 Yeah, and we have, I think, a unique cultural problem.

01:13:46.900 I mean, you mentioned the social contagion factor here, and we have

01:13:51.240 different cultural problems.

01:13:53.320 As I said, you know, most of the problem of homicide is a problem of

01:13:59.240 homicide in the black community on a daily basis, and it's, you know, it's

01:14:05.560 black-on-black young male crime overwhelmingly, and that's its own 0.98

01:14:11.300 problem. 0.95

01:14:11.920 When you're talking about the problem of mass shooting, certainly the 0.65

01:14:15.540 prototypical case is of a white guy.

01:14:18.080 That's not the case in Uvalde, you have a Hispanic there, but it's just, you 1.00

01:14:25.560 know, it is disproportionately white young men at the center of these horrors, and

01:14:32.020 there you have a very different kind of cultural contagion.

01:14:36.840 I mean, I don't know what we know about it, but this fetishizing of AR-15s and, you

01:14:43.780 know, whatever connection there is to, you know, video game culture and just the

01:14:49.020 social isolation of many of these young men, I mean, when you look at who they are

01:14:55.000 and how they spend their time prior to snapping, there is a profile of this sort of

01:15:01.540 person, and it's a, you know, it's different than the profile of a teenager in the

01:15:08.520 inner city who's in a gang, you know, who's dealing drugs.

01:15:11.660 I mean, it's just a very different logic to the violence that ensues there.

01:15:18.620 I take your point.

01:15:19.340 I might make one sort of pedantic correction or elaboration, which is mass shootings, you

01:15:26.580 know, first of all, there's a lot of them right now.

01:15:29.220 We're on track for, I think, 600 or 700 in this calendar year, which is twice as much

01:15:34.520 as there were 10 years ago, but that includes drive-by shootings.

01:15:38.420 So if, and that, I think what the sort of prototypical workplace or a school shooting

01:15:45.580 is a white guy who's gone bonkers or is in some cases ideologically motivated, but mass

01:15:53.520 shootings in general, a lot of them do happen in scenarios that are pretty different from 0.95

01:15:59.140 what we tend to think of when someone goes postal.

01:16:01.860 Isn't the definition like four or more people getting shot?

01:16:04.680 Yeah, I think that's the sort of criminological cutoff that they use.

01:16:10.440 And then I think you put your finger on something else, though, which is video games and social

01:16:15.440 isolation, which they have a, I think, important and interesting relationship where it seems

01:16:23.420 like video games for a lot of people turn into outlets for their rage.

01:16:28.620 You know, if you really like the idea of shooting a room full of people, there are very realistic

01:16:33.860 ways you can simulate that.

01:16:35.420 And it seems like some people get that from video games.

01:16:38.220 And then there are other people who play video games because of their social isolation, and

01:16:42.060 they just fall deeper and deeper into that isolation in lieu of any engagement with any other

01:16:47.820 social reality. 0.80

01:16:48.640 And it seems like the Buffalo shooter crazed, anti-Semitic, racist, also just was deep into 0.95

01:16:57.000 the isolation of the pandemic, disappeared down racist and anti-Semitic rabbit holes. 1.00

01:17:03.280 And then when he emerged, was completely nuts. 0.64

01:17:06.260 And then in the case of the Uvalde shooter, he too, it sounds like it was spending a lot of

01:17:12.860 time alone because for some reason of social dysfunction.

01:17:16.140 And then also probably, it sounds like he was also using video games as a remedy for

01:17:22.740 that social isolation.

01:17:24.280 So I wonder how much of the jump in numbers in the last couple of years, which has been

01:17:30.160 significant, both in mass shootings and in school shootings, how much that has to do with

01:17:34.660 people who are just alone and not able to deal mentally with the effects of that.

01:17:40.640 So in closing, it might be useful to talk about possible remedies here.

01:17:48.880 And we've mentioned a few in passing.

01:17:51.200 And again, I don't know how quixotic either of these ideas is.

01:17:57.440 I mean, I think I said at the beginning that this conversation may produce really nothing

01:18:03.140 actionable as an idea.

01:18:05.340 But I keep coming back to, again, now we're focused on the distinct problem of mass shootings

01:18:11.780 of the crazy or ideological sort, right?

01:18:15.940 Where you have somebody who, however isolated they are, you could imagine them attracting

01:18:22.280 the attention of family members and other kids in school.

01:18:26.240 I mean, I think in the case of the Evaldi shooter, people were just obviously concerned

01:18:30.940 about what a hostile person he was.

01:18:34.700 And he seemed scarcely hinged to people.

01:18:37.680 And I'm sure more information will come out about that.

01:18:40.920 So the question is, what do you do when you're a student in a school or a parent and there's

01:18:47.900 a young man in your life who you have every reason to worry about and if they haven't done

01:18:53.540 anything illegal yet?

01:18:56.240 Is there any hope that we would have some process of intrusion in the lives of such

01:19:02.760 people at scale, perhaps facilitated by social media networks that could get us actual data

01:19:11.220 on this?

01:19:11.720 Obviously, you have companies that can profile people fantastically well for the purpose of

01:19:18.800 delivering them ads.

01:19:19.780 We could be profiling people who worry us and delivering those data to the appropriate

01:19:26.340 authorities.

01:19:27.140 The question is, what would be the end result there that could conceivably be therapeutic,

01:19:34.180 right?

01:19:34.400 If you imagine cops showing up because Facebook has coughed up an immense amount of probabilistic

01:19:42.460 data on all the dangerous people in any given city, the idea that you're going to get a knock

01:19:47.940 on the door from the NYPD and that something good is going to come of that when you're a socially

01:19:56.300 isolated, game-playing, AR-15-worshipping, quasi-lunatic already.

01:20:02.560 I just, you know, that sort of seems hopeless.

01:20:06.700 Like, what is it, you know, what army of social workers and, you know, mental health professionals

01:20:12.760 are we going to marshal to intrude in the lives of people if we produce these data?

01:20:18.220 I don't know if you have any thoughts about that.

01:20:21.360 Yeah, I think you've adequately described how hopeless that situation is.

01:20:27.460 Facebook does not want to be the clinical counselor to the world.

01:20:31.460 The NYPD and every other law enforcement agency has nothing like the amount of resources to check

01:20:38.840 out everybody who would be flagged in this way.

01:20:41.960 So I'm not sure where that leaves us.

01:20:44.240 I mean, there are enough crazy people all over the world.

01:20:48.120 Like, there was a guy recently convicted of killing a bunch of people in, you know, 0.69

01:20:53.040 sleepy Norway with a bow and arrow who was, you know, he was unwell, but he was sort of

01:20:58.400 undetected by the system in the sense that nobody expected him to go on a bow and arrow serial

01:21:04.000 killing spree.

01:21:05.360 So that suggests that even extremely well-resourced societies, which are pretty good at monitoring

01:21:11.860 their own, are not going to be able to come up with some magic ability to detect people

01:21:17.560 and then not detect them so sensitively without specificity, too, that they'll be able to identify

01:21:24.160 which ones really need their attention.

01:21:26.380 And that's why I keep coming back to this idea of you want people who are getting on the radar

01:21:33.380 to interact with others in person.

01:21:38.020 And I'm talking about others who have the ability to actually stop them in their tracks,

01:21:42.580 stop them in their plans.

01:21:44.660 And I don't know about you, when I think, oh, this person might be a psychopath, my first

01:21:49.260 instinct is not to personally intervene in that person's life.

01:21:52.020 It's to get as far away as possible.

01:21:53.620 But there are people who are trained to do that, and those could be school counselors.

01:21:57.480 And as a last line of defense, I keep coming back to this idea that if I'm selling guns,

01:22:04.040 I want to be confident of who I'm selling to and have a conversation with that person.

01:22:08.980 And I want that for my own well-being, because I could not live with myself if I sold an AR-15

01:22:14.740 to someone who later used it to kill people.

01:22:19.120 So it would be good to try to work on the points in the chain of bad events, where there's a

01:22:28.280 possibility of having that face-to-face with someone, where there has to be a moment when

01:22:33.720 you look the person in the eyes and try to figure out if the person's homicidal or just

01:22:37.000 wants to shoot targets or feral hogs. 0.51

01:22:39.840 So maybe that's the way to do it.

01:22:41.880 I don't know quite how to change the culture so that that happens, but it seems not to have

01:22:48.180 been adequate.

01:22:49.120 In this case.

01:22:50.660 And what do you think about the prospects of having a true sea change in culture of

01:22:56.200 the sort that Australia had in the aftermath of their mass shooting, where they literally

01:23:01.040 just bought back all the guns?

01:23:03.420 I mean, so we've got 400 million guns.

01:23:06.000 You know, a plausible buyback would probably be, you know, $400 billion, maybe even put that

01:23:12.600 at a trillion dollars.

01:23:14.280 There's a lot of people who would sell their guns.

01:23:15.860 One would imagine if you were giving them $2,000 or so per gun, but obviously there are

01:23:22.780 probably millions who wouldn't at any price because gun ownership is their religion. 0.99

01:23:27.020 But if there were the will to change the laws and a buyback, you could imagine just changing

01:23:35.120 the facts on the ground where all of a sudden we look more like the UK in terms of the number

01:23:39.640 of guns in existence.

01:23:41.740 And I mean, that is some, there's some universe in which that is possible.

01:23:45.860 But the question is, how likely are we to live in that universe?

01:23:50.780 Yeah.

01:23:51.200 I mean, you would know as well as I, do we live in that country, the country where people

01:23:55.280 turn in their guns in exchange for a few thousand dollars?

01:23:58.380 I don't think so.

01:23:59.780 When I talk to people who are really into guns in a way that I'm not, you know, I don't own

01:24:04.500 guns.

01:24:04.960 I don't shoot guns every week, but the people I know who do, they think of their guns as

01:24:11.460 part of their identity, part of their life, sometimes part of their work, definitely part

01:24:16.240 of their leisure, part of their existence.

01:24:18.100 I mean, no exaggeration to say that a dozen times a day they are thinking about where their

01:24:23.380 guns are.

01:24:24.500 They're thinking about how to store their guns.

01:24:26.580 It's just like a huge part of how they're spending their mental cycles.

01:24:31.400 So, I don't think these people are going to be willing to just give up their guns.

01:24:37.680 And they'll immediately ask themselves if the laws change or if there's a social push

01:24:43.980 for them to give up.

01:24:45.100 Why me?

01:24:46.340 The world is safer with me carrying a gun than it would be without my carrying a gun.

01:24:52.640 And, you know, sometimes they're right when they think that.

01:24:54.580 And I think it will be extremely difficult to convince them at scale that they should

01:25:01.140 think otherwise.

01:25:02.560 Yeah.

01:25:02.780 I mean, that's what is so hard to parse about this because, I mean, there are people I know

01:25:09.200 who carry firearms, people who I've trained with, right?

01:25:12.980 You know, current and former SWAT operators who, off duty, are never going to be caught unarmed.

01:25:20.100 And, you know, honestly, I feel safer with them living that way than being unarmed, right?

01:25:28.380 I mean, just given the reality of violence and the current facts on the ground.

01:25:34.000 Yeah, it is genuinely hard to think about.

01:25:37.660 But in the aftermath of an event like this, it really is tempting to hope for a total reset

01:25:47.140 of our society.

01:25:48.680 And it's just, I just don't see any path politically that we could even begin to walk to make that

01:25:55.500 possible.

01:25:56.480 And that is very frustrating.

01:25:58.720 I mean, just even things that virtually all gun owners agree on, like making a truly comprehensive

01:26:06.520 national background check system that would catch anyone who had, you know, any reason

01:26:12.560 not to be sold a gun.

01:26:15.360 As far as I know, there's widespread support for that, even among gun owners, and I think

01:26:20.000 even among NRA members.

01:26:22.400 And yet, that has thus far been politically a non-starter.

01:26:27.180 Yeah, yeah.

01:26:27.760 I think you're right that most gun owners, they like to think of themselves as special.

01:26:32.920 They like to think of themselves as people who are extremely responsible.

01:26:36.220 And unlike Joe Schmo, should be allowed to have guns because they can be trusted with them.

01:26:41.140 The other thing that it's the hardest part of this puzzle to deal with, but I think serious

01:26:47.260 consideration of it is going to be part of the solution, really thinking about the social

01:26:51.860 contagion portion of this.

01:26:54.000 Our friend Steve Pinker likes to talk about how the problem of streakers running onto football

01:26:59.980 fields was solved when networks decided, we're just going to cut to commercial.

01:27:05.000 You're not even going to know if you're at home that there's a streaker on the field.

01:27:08.580 And then suddenly, there were just no streakers on the field for most people who were watching

01:27:13.080 football games because they never heard about it because they were watching on TV and nobody

01:27:17.540 even mentioned them.

01:27:18.740 And then suddenly, it just isn't a thing anymore.

01:27:21.400 Now, obviously, journalists can't stop reporting on the existence of mass shootings, but there

01:27:28.420 is the availability of this idea of mass shootings as what one might do when one has a political

01:27:37.160 point to make.

01:27:38.360 That's not great that we're in a society where that's one of the first things that you think 0.83

01:27:43.660 about as a way to tell the world how much you hate it or how much you want fewer Jews 0.90

01:27:49.940 in charge.

01:27:51.180 So changing that, I have no real advice, I'm afraid.

01:27:56.400 But that's going to be part of the solution when someone smarter than me comes up with ideas

01:28:02.100 and how to change it.

01:28:02.840 Well, I feel like the mainstream media has drawn some lesson about this.

01:28:08.700 I don't know when things change, but I perceive a reluctance to cover a mass shooting of this

01:28:17.200 kind in any way that focuses on the shooter.

01:28:20.760 I mean, there are many cases where I don't even wind up learning the name of the shooter.

01:28:25.200 I mean, it's not to say that it's been completely suppressed, but like in the Buffalo case, if

01:28:30.360 I knew the guy's name, I have since forgotten it.

01:28:33.180 And I think that is good.

01:28:35.840 I mean, there's definitely a way, there's a type of coverage, there's a type of fame that

01:28:39.980 can be visited upon a shooter, you know, alive or dead in the aftermath of something like

01:28:45.620 this that is genuinely counterproductive, right?

01:28:49.040 And it's just, it is part of the contagion problem, because then you have the aspiring

01:28:55.020 mass shooter thinking about how famous he's going to be after what he does.

01:29:01.460 And so I think insofar as we can draw a lesson from the case of the streakers, I think we 1.00

01:29:07.620 want to do that.

01:29:08.900 And I mean, actually, there was a mass shooting, the biggest mass shooting in American history,

01:29:14.620 the Vegas shooting, which just went down the memory hole so fast.

01:29:20.460 I mean, inexplicably fast.

01:29:21.980 I think the only thing that explains it was just how wrapped up we were in some Trumpian

01:29:26.920 cycle of indiscretion politically, where, you know, there was just no oxygen left in the

01:29:33.640 room, even for a mass shooting that killed, I think that was 58 people and wounded hundreds.

01:29:40.800 And again, the name of that shooter is not in my brain.

01:29:43.220 And do you have any ideas about why the greatest mass shooting in American history has been

01:29:50.160 so fully forgotten?

01:29:53.680 The main reason is that we don't know why he did it.

01:29:57.180 We truly have no idea.

01:29:58.820 ISIS, interestingly enough, claimed it very soon after it happened.

01:30:02.720 And there seems to be no reason to believe that ISIS had anything to do with it.

01:30:05.760 It is weird, though, because ISIS typically does not do that.

01:30:08.460 They very rapidly said, this is our handiwork.

01:30:12.240 And it's strange that they would claim the one mass shooting that where no even remote

01:30:18.880 motive ever came up.

01:30:21.300 And he also didn't, he wasn't, he was like, was he in his 50s or 60s?

01:30:25.560 I mean, he didn't really fit the profile either.

01:30:27.560 He was in his later middle age, at least, and pretty wealthy.

01:30:33.420 And everything about that mass shooting was so strange.

01:30:37.200 It was such an outlier that I kind of understand why we would memory hole it, because it doesn't

01:30:42.320 fit with anything else that we've seen before or since.

01:30:45.580 The numbers, the venue, the planning, the motive, all of these things just don't fit with any

01:30:52.620 previous, any previous case.

01:30:55.220 So you'd think that the most, quote-unquote, successful mass shooting would be one that we

01:31:00.580 try to learn from.

01:31:01.840 But if we did try to learn from it, we'd probably make some bad decisions, because it turns out

01:31:06.580 not to be a very good model for anything that's happened.

01:31:09.460 Yeah.

01:31:10.180 Well, Graham, it's, it has been very interesting and hopefully useful.

01:31:17.160 Again, I don't, we've arrived in a place that I was, that's unsurprising to me.

01:31:21.800 You know, it would have been a miracle in my mind if we had come up with something that

01:31:26.040 was genuinely novel and actionable here, but it seems useful nonetheless.

01:31:31.200 Is there any, are there any points we haven't made that you, you want to make in closing?

01:31:35.860 No.

01:31:36.580 I mean, I think it's really difficult to come up with solutions that are good.

01:31:41.060 It's not that hard to find seriously proposed solutions that are really bad.

01:31:46.120 So, you know, even when I kick myself for not figuring out how to solve the problem, I

01:31:50.900 at least take some solace and maybe I'm pushing against some, some bad ideas that would make

01:31:55.780 the lives of our children worse.

01:31:57.500 Yeah.

01:31:58.220 And in this case, I think we identified a few of those.

01:32:01.440 Yeah.

01:32:01.780 I think that's, maybe I just want to reiterate one that came from you that, you know, honestly,

01:32:07.780 I hadn't thought about all that much, but I do think moving in the direction of a more

01:32:14.140 open campus is counterintuitive for people, but you just want that campus to be able to

01:32:20.960 empty as quickly as possible.

01:32:22.400 Right.

01:32:22.940 And so that, so that the Ted Cruz solution is just, it should be obviously wrong.

01:32:28.740 And yet it's, it's tempting to many people.

01:32:30.800 The idea that you're going to have a single, a single choke point that's well defended and

01:32:35.400 otherwise the, the, you know, everything is a brick wall.

01:32:38.860 I mean, that just, that is obviously not the way to go.

01:32:42.280 And, you know, happily what seems, you know, most practical here is, you know, emotionally

01:32:49.120 speaking the most desirable.

01:32:50.720 I mean, I think we do not want schools to resemble penitentiaries.

01:32:55.060 We want schools to be, you know, open, non-paranoid places to be. 1.00

01:33:00.680 And if you can get out of school immediately, wherever you happen to be, that's, that's also

01:33:06.260 the outcome you want in the case of a mass shooting.

01:33:09.880 Yeah.

01:33:10.020 I think all of that would, having a more open school would be having a much better school.

01:33:15.240 And if kids are feeling alienated, if they're hating the world, I don't think it's going

01:33:19.980 to help for their school to be prison-like for their teachers to be like correctional

01:33:25.580 officers, to generally be in an environment where they're thinking about death because

01:33:30.420 of the very way that their campus is laid out.

01:33:32.860 So it seems like there's a lot of positive externalities that would come from just setting

01:33:38.020 up the school in a way that if there was one of those rare events, then the kids could,

01:33:42.840 could scatter like a flock of birds and the place would be empty in a matter of seconds.

01:33:48.460 Yeah.

01:33:48.960 Yeah.

01:33:49.720 Well, Graham, as always, it's great to talk to you.

01:33:52.320 Thanks for everything you're doing.

01:33:53.460 I, you know, as you know, I, I read you whenever you show up in the Atlantic and, and then I tap

01:33:59.460 you whenever, uh, something in your, uh, in your dark wheelhouse, uh, appears in the news.

01:34:06.120 And that, that's, uh, unfortunately that's all too often.

01:34:08.920 So you're, you're my go-to journalist, uh, for, for all things violent.

01:34:12.720 Um, so.

01:34:14.440 Thanks.

01:34:15.320 Thanks for that, Sam.

01:34:16.340 Thanks for a reminder of the dark world that I live in.

01:34:19.140 But, uh, yeah, conversations with you are always the best.

01:34:21.460 I appreciate it.

01:34:22.020 I appreciate it.

Making Sense - Sam Harris - May 30, 2022

#283 — Gun Violence in America

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