#290 — What Went Wrong?
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Summary
Mark andresen is a co-founder and general partner at the venture capital firm Andresen Horowitz, and he is one of the few people to pioneer a whole software category used by more than a billion people. He holds a degree in computer science from the University of Illinois and he serves on the board of several Andresenic Horowitz portfolio companies, including applied intuition, Dialpad, OpenGov, and Samara Networks. He is also on the Board of Meta, otherwise known as "The Internet." In this episode, we cover a lot of ground, including the current state of internet technology and culture, some of what has gone right, but there is much that is in the process of going wrong. In order to access full episodes of the Making Sense Podcast, you'll need to subscribe to Making Sense, where you'll get access to all the latest episodes. If you're not a subscriber yet, you can catch up on the most recent episodes of Making Sense wherever you get your podcasts, including Apple Podcasts, Pocketcasts, and the latest in non-profit news and reviews from The New York Times, The Financial Times, and The Huffington Post. You can also join our FB group, which is a community of likeminded thinkers and journalists dedicated to living a good life. Subscribe to our newest podcast, Making Sense where we cover the latest trends in technology, culture, and society. We don't run ads on the podcast and therefore it's made possible entirely through the support of our subscribers, we're made possible by making sense by you, the listener! -Sam Harris . Thank you for listening to the making sense podcast? Timestamps: 5:00 - 6:00 7:00 | 7:30 8:00 // 9:00 / 9:40 11:00 & 12:00 + 13:00 ? 14:00 @ 15:00 # 16:00 etc.? 17:00 = #1 21:00 , +3: ? #3 4: #5 & #6 5&3 ? ? 5 6 3&3? #7 ) And so on , etc. +6? +5? ?
Transcript
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welcome to the making sense podcast this is sam harris just a note to say that if you're hearing
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this you are not currently on our subscriber feed and will only be hearing the first part
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therefore it's made possible entirely through the support of our subscribers so if you enjoy
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what we're doing here please consider becoming one
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okay just a brief housekeeping here i hope you all enjoyed the beginning of the oliver berkman
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series on time management that i previewed here in the last episode again the rest of that will
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soon be appearing over at waking up in our new life section and the whole point of the section is to
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bring relevant philosophy and science to bear on the question of how to live a good life and that
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will include conversations between me and outside experts but also courses designed by other people
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and we have some interesting courses already in the works there also i enjoyed the previous podcast
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with peter zion and ian bremer that was a new format where i invited a subject matter expert to
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ride shotgun with me and help facilitate a conversation that was somewhat outside my wheelhouse
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perhaps i'll do more of that or even begin moderating some debates here i've thought about doing that
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for a while and this seems like a good provocation in that direction and also just a reminder that we
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launched the best of making sense podcast where we surface some of the evergreen episodes from
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previous years i know many of you are enjoying that but for those of you who haven't discovered it
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it is a separate podcast where subscribers to making sense get full episodes and otherwise we release
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half episodes in podcatchers everywhere okay today i'm speaking with mark andresen mark is a co-founder
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and general partner at the venture capital firm andresen horowitz he is one of the few people to
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pioneer a whole software category used by more than a billion people and one of the few to establish
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multiple billion dollar companies mark co-created the first proper internet browser mosaic which then
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became netscape which he later sold to aol for 4.2 billion dollars he also co-founded loud cloud
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which as opsware was sold to hewlett-packard for 1.6 billion dollars and he later served on the
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board of hewlett-packard from 2008 to 2018 mark holds a degree in computer science from the university of
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illinois and he serves on the board of several andresen horowitz portfolio companies applied intuition
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carta dialpad honor open gov and samsara networks and he is also on the board of meta otherwise known
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as facebook and in this episode we cover a lot of ground we talk about the current state of internet
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technology and culture some of what has gone right but there is much that is in the process of going
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wrong we discuss mark's background in tech the birth of the internet how advertising became the
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business model for digital media we talk about the three stages of the web and the birth of blockchain
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how successful technology reorders status and power in society the bitcoin white paper the mystery
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surrounding the identity of satoshi nakamoto the importance of distributed consensus bitcoin is digital gold
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how society has performed during covid james burnham and managerial capitalism the ubiquitous
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principal agent problem negative externalities risk and regulation trust and institutions what the
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fuck happened in 1971 regulatory capture banning trump and alex jones from social media perverse incentives
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and philanthropy and other topics anyway i really enjoyed this conversation mark knows a lot about a lot
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and uh he's a very fast talker i'm a slow talker so those of you who listen to this podcast on 2x are
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probably screwed for this one anyway i now bring you mark andresen
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i am here with mark andresen mark thanks for joining me hey sam it's great to be here
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so we have a lot to talk about you are a man of many talents and wide experience and um we haven't hung
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out much but i've spoken to you enough to get a glimmer of your um polymathic intentions if not actual
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achievements it's really if you see you cover an incredible range of material in your um just in
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your your information diet i want to get into to what you're most focused on and and worried about
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these days sure and i also want i want to talk about your background a little bit because people
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will know some of it but i think in having you recapitulate a little bit of that journey
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into tech you might be able to give us some insights as to what we should be thinking about now
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but first a high level what do you how do you describe yourself these days in terms of what
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you do professionally and what you focus on yeah so my career has had kind of three stages so far
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so you know stage one was in as an engineer and i was i was trained as an engineer and sort of that
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that sort of method of engineering is kind of central to to everything as it turns out that at
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least i i do and think about then i became an entrepreneur so i went into into business despite
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having taken zero uh business courses and sort of went to the school of hard knocks and so um
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you know went into business and started you know originally my first company with my partner jim
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clark in 94 and then my second company with ben horowitz in 99 and then so forth and so on and then
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you know phase three starting in 2009 was to become an investor a professional investor a venture
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capitalist and so that's a phase three and then maybe some someday one more phase but uh at least
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those those three have kept me busy so far oh and then you know what what we do you know so what
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does it mean to be a venture capitalist you know basically we're uh think of it as like we're a hub
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that's the sort of center of flows of basically ideas people and money would be the way to think
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about it so we you know try to stand the leading edge of all the new areas of technology we try to
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know all the really smart people who are working on new technology and want to be part of the
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technology ecosystem and then we we raise we raise and then we actually raise money and we invest money
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um and we you know we get very we invest in startups we get very deeply involved in the
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companies we are typically on the board we're you know we're very often the the founders kind of you
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know main outside confidant advisor you know we can we we you know we get the call when things go
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horribly wrong and you know try to pitch in and help and you know and then try to maximize the
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success for the companies that you know they kind of hit hit a chord yeah and how would you describe your
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politics at this point so i would say mostly i'm sort of uh you know on an ice flow all by myself
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headed slowly out to sea i think there's a few people on that flow with you probably at least on
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nearby flows uh drifting together and apart so i i i this is you know i i could go on at length about
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this i i i was always kind of a centrist democrat like basically everybody else i knew in in tech and in
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the valley you know the valley is like you know 99 you know the picture always gets painted the
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valley is a bunch of radical libertarians or something and in reality it's just like 99
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basically clinton democrats and now you know kind of whatever warren democrats bernie democrats and so
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you know i i was always that up until like call it 2015 2016 and then like everybody else i was just
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completely shocked by really by two things one was trump winning you know both the nomination
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election and then also just the the huge shift on the left you know that that took place and so i i
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kind of checked out of traditional politics in 2015 and kind of went on a spirit walk and decided
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to try to kind of reread everything from scratch and figure out what was going on and i've kind of
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come out the other side and sort of a weird fuzzy undefined state so i don't even know that i even apply
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any labels you know i'm not doing anything politically i'm i'm completely out of it so i'm mostly just
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trying to learn and understand at this point more than like have positions yeah well that describes my own
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political identity pretty well at this moment perhaps we'll get back to that i think i don't
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think we'll focus on politics but the political context will inform much of what we say about the
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breakdown and and rebuilding or failures of rebuilding uh around institutions and solving the
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massive coordination problem of how do we get strangers who don't trust themselves all that much
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or trust one another all that much to collaborate but uh before we talk about your background earlier
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again high level what would you say have been a few of the the influences or life experiences that
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you currently consider most formative of your worldview on a day-to-day basis you know i think you
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look part of it was growing up in the sort of you know midwest i i used to think i traveled sort of
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this weird road from like rural agricultural midwest all the way to kind of high-tech silicon valley and
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it was kind of you know an unusual thing and then i i discovered years later i discovered tom wolf the
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great american you know novelist reporter wrote a long form profile of a guy named robert noyce
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who was basically the inventor of the microchip um and the creator of you know intel and basically the
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creator of the tech industry as we know it today and he wrote this profile of bob noyce and bob noyce
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basically was like an iowa farm farm boy you know who grew up in like rural iowa and then moved to um
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you know moved to the valley and sort of created created the valley created technology as we know
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it today and so it's and then you know wolf also pointed out like that's the story of like philo
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farmsworth who created television and you know and many others and so there's there's like you know
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i always described the valley is like this intersection of like 1950s style midwestern tinkerer
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engineer you know the the guys with like the brush cuts and the white short sleeve polyester shirts
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you know like you see in all the old photos of nasa or something it's it's kind of got that kind
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of square culture engineering kind of nerd culture and then it's got the kind of 1960s
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california counterculture you know which is because it happened here and so that that stuff
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all kind of threaded into it and it's it's it's like it's like balance on a knife's edge between
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those two cultures and so i definitely you know kind of come out of that of that kind of former
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background so yeah i mean going from you know there to here you know was was was very important
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you know like partnering with my you know my business partner jim clark was you know a very
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successful entrepreneur you know what that was the founder of one of the most successful
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companies in the history of the industry and i i kind of got lucky and that i got to work
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with him at a time when he wanted to start a new company and all the smart people he knew
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were kind of working at his current company so he had to go get fresh blood and i happened i
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happened to be newly arrived and so you know we kind of we kind of hooked up and built built our
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company netscape that was formative uh the dot-com crash was a very formative experience you know we
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hit that really hard and then you know look the last you know the last 20 years you know the fact
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the internet didn't die after 2000 and like there was like a whole second tech boom and then you know
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everything kind of magically coming together starting in 2007 or 2008 between the iphone
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and broadband and social networking and everything else that created the world we're in today you know
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all this stuff at this point has worked you know way beyond any expectation any of us could have
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possibly had so you know kind of kind of seeing that all crystallize and come together you know has
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really really really taught me a lot and then of course you know now we're in whatever weird state
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we're in today yeah that's kind of how i got here so what was your academic background before you
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became an internet pioneer well you did a cs degree yeah so i was a classic midwestern kind of story
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which is of course you know the purpose of a college education is to make money like this fairy
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stuff and so i went to the u.s news and world report issue in i think 1988 and i looked up the
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income levels by a bachelor's degree and of course the top degree was electrical engineering at that
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time and so and then i looked for the top double e schools and the number three school was uh
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university of illinois which was right across the border so you know that that made those two
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decisions easy i got in school and discovered i hugely preferred software which i should have
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known because i was always coding as a kid but i just software there's just you know double e's
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are you know tremendously important and have done a lot to build the modern world but software
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there's a level of creativity that's just hard to do in atoms and so uh you know i kind of
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got seduced by software and then got a computer science degree and so let's talk through
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what happened with mosaic and netscape for a few minutes i mean most people will associate
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your name with netscape but it was mosaic first right i mean you started this company
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and um what was the name change about what happened there well it didn't start as a company
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and so it started as a as a project it started as a project at the university of illinois and so it
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started as a federally funded research project at what was at the time at the time called the national
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center for supercomputing applications which the sort of short version is remember when al gore
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said that he invented the internet yeah it turns out that story is actually largely true in the sense
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of what he actually said was the full quote was i took the lead in creating the internet in the
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senate and that story actually is true which is in the senate the u.s senate in the mid-1980s
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funded two things that ended up being very important for my career one was they funded the internet
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backbone they ended what was called at the time nsf net after the national science foundation
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and then they funded what were called the the four national supercomputing centers when and
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one of those just happened to be at the university of illinois the significance of that was basically
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they just dropped like a ton of money on on these four these four universities including illinois to
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basically buy state-of-the-art computers and then hook them up to the the internet and you know this
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is starting in the mid-80s and so by the way by the time i got there in 89 this was kind of underway
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and so we we had in retrospect basically a modern computing internet networking broadband graphical
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environment just you know basically five ten years before the rest of the world so you could kind of
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see it working was that pure serendipity or did you actually know going to illinois that you were
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going to have access to unusual computer resources well they were you know like i said they were number
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three ranked for double e nationally it was like mit stanford and then university of illinois so that
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reflected that they were top 10 cs at the time so they they were no i mean they were by far the best
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engineering school in the midwest at that point um and it was just too much of a leap at that point in my
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life to go to the east coast or the west coast so right so the reason they rank so high is because
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they were so central like they had they had that you know they had these very advanced programs and
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all these resources and so you know i had a glimmer of it i knew about it but you know i didn't fully
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understand the import until i got there and i saw it right and then basically and what happened was
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nsf basically just like funded this essentially to build the modern internet at the time as a research
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as a research you know something for scientists at the time this is back in the days there was actually um
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it was actually illegal to do business on the internet during this period right there was
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something called the the acceptable use policy that basically banned all commercial transactions
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so so it was purely a research thing nobody really envisioned it having real world applications at
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that time it was just kind of for scientists and academics but you know there was a research group
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there that had the job of basically writing software to make the internet work for you know people
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and we basically had a project that started as kind of a renegade project that became an official
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project that was this thing called mosaic which was the first browser that kind of got widely used
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to kind of pull in all the functions made everything graphical and then made it work really well and
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fast and secure and so forth and then everybody started using that on the internet as it then
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existed and that was basically that was when i was making six dollars and 25 cents an hour
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yeah well i hope you invested that wisely because i'm told compounding really works
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well until recently yes right until until inflation yeah until the last two months
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months so then you formed a proper company netscape and what happened what what happened to netscape
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as a product yeah well so first of all it was very it was very tenuous that we ever even started
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that company because it was it was so there was such a wall of negativity it was so universally known
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that the internet was not something that ordinary people would ever use right and and if you read the
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newspapers and magazines at the time they were just wall to wall when they wrote about the internet
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it was primarily either as an object of curiosity that would never matter or negatively if this
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thing's never going to what year are we now 93 94 right right okay yeah kind of 92 93 94. the first
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issue of wired magazine i bought the first issue of wired magazine off the newsstand and i think 90 early
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93 when i was working on mosaic or late 92 and i remember uh bought it like four in the morning going to
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do a do a snack run and i saw this thing on the newsstand and i you know i was excited finally a
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magazine for me and i went back to my office and read it from front to back and it didn't even
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mention mention the internet right and i was like okay i guess i guess i guess i'm on the wrong end
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of this whole thing so and it's not that wired got anything wrong it's just that that was universally
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the view and all the experts said that and all the big company ceos said that it's just this is not
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a this is not going to be a thing so what was motivating you at that point did you actually believe
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that everyone was wrong and realize that the internet was going to be a way to not only get rich but
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just basically do more or less everything that was going to prove indispensable in the future or
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were you just tinkering and and following your interests without any big picture vision so it
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was actually a process of elimination which is we kind of tried everything else instead
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basically concluded that nope it was just going to be the internet and so uh my partner jim and i
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actually had other business plans that we kind of cycled through trying to do at the time interactive
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television was this big idea and then we we tried to do we had a plan for an online gaming network
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that's sort of like what xbox live today is today we basically worked through all these other ideas
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for kind of advanced you know aol at that point was starting to work a little bit so it's like
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what would it mean to do one of those like a proprietary consumer service and we we kind of
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kept you know just we we have the startup mentality of like okay let's from scratch make a business
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plan for building a company that does anything like this and and basically we cycled through all
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the other ideas and and and then you know the background kind of mosaic kind of kept growing
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right it kept going after i left illinois and you know more more people were using it and it was just
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like you know i was and i still had my you know it's my email login and so i i had the i had the
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account i had um i had the account mosaic was was free for academic use but it had a we put a provision
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in the license that said you have to pay for commercial use and we just did that as a placeholder
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because we didn't have a business model at illinois but i had the email box i had the email box
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where people would send in commercial inquiries where they would want to do something you know
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in the commercial sector with it like e-commerce or whatever and so you know there were hundreds
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and hundreds and hundreds of these like messages coming in from people who wanted to do crazy
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crazy things like i want to build a bookstore on the internet like that's crazy uh lose my email
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jeff yeah exactly well actually you pre-jeff right pre-jeff you know even before that and so yeah so i
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just like at some point jim and i literally looked at each other and we're like okay this internet thing
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might actually be the thing like maybe all these other experts are just wrong maybe this actually is
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the correct thing and you know i look the internet had all kinds of problems and issues that i could
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take you through it as long litany of you know people had all these complaints about it that were
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correct it's not secure and you can't do transactions and blah blah blah blah blah and
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it's not fast right and it's just like well you know look if the network effect really takes and
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lots of people sign up to use this and lots of businesses come online then it's going to drive
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an investment wave that's going to solve all these other problems which is basically what happened
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and so we we we kind of did what in retrospect was the obvious decision which is we just leaned
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in hard on that right and how did the business model get anchored to ads because of all the
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things that could have gone differently in the beginning um and maybe the tech wasn't there you
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just said there there was no way to pay for things but it seems like that could have been an early
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priority and i'm not sure you entirely share my my view of just how diabolical the ad-based economy
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has been in the end but i wonder what what was that moment like where you just slap a banner ad on
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it and that's how you you monetize the future of digital media yeah so it's because we had no we
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had no native money all right we had no native ability to do money we had no way to do microtransactions
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we knew this at the time so we we knew right up front we like look there needs to be a way to
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send and receive money there needs to be a way to do e-commerce there needs to be a way to do
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microtransactions we knew this at the time there were two kind of big things and we were in a position
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to do it because we had the we had the browser but we also had the servers and the e-commerce software
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and all the back of the back end stuff and so we were in a position to do all this
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so we figured there were two parts of the problem part one was cryptography right so basically security
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right so to be able to have like secure you know secure communication and we invented this protocol
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called ssl for secure cryptography it's the it's the first widely used kind of delivery of the
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science of cryptography to consumers you know sort of happened as a consequence of the nescape
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browser and ssl and that's by the way that's still in use ssl still the encryption method for
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the internet today so so that part worked and then the other part was like okay you need to plug
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into the existing banking system right you need to be able to plug in so people can load you know
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have their credit card their debit card their bank account their checking account because they've got
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all their money somewhere and they've got to be able to you know kind of get it to the internet
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and so for that we went and we started talking all the big banks and the big credit card companies
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and you know we got again this kind of wall of skepticism and everybody kind of told us basically
00:21:26.760
basically f off this is never going to work and then we got our big meeting that kind of really
00:21:31.480
hammered this home for me we we found this guy at uh just i guess i shouldn't name names specifically
00:21:37.160
but one of the very big credit card companies let's say uh there was a cto who was like considered
00:21:42.200
we were told he was like the visionary for the payments industry and the guy that everybody listened
00:21:45.640
to and it's like if you can get him on your side you know you can really do something here so we had
00:21:49.160
him to our office he had not used the internet or mosaic or netscape at that point so we sat him
00:21:53.960
down in front of a workstation and you know with the keyboard and a mouse and a big screen
00:21:57.720
and you know had it all queued up for the demo and said you know and i and i basically pointed
00:22:01.480
on the uh you know the the first link on the screen and i said you know click here and so
00:22:05.000
of course he reaches up with his finger and touches the screen um and this is you know 1994 right so
00:22:11.320
there's no touch screens yeah so nothing happens um and then i'm like no no you use the mouse and so
00:22:16.200
then of course he looks at the mouse and then of course he picks it up right and so you know and
00:22:20.520
you know what how could that possibly be the case well because the the entire banking payments
00:22:24.360
industry at that point was on mainframes from 30 years earlier they you know they didn't do
00:22:28.680
new things that's not what they were in business to do and so i remember in that meeting you know
00:22:34.040
it's just like okay this is it we're sunk there's no way this can happen so so you know we tried
00:22:38.680
microsoft tried other people tried awl tried and it's just there was never any way to do it and so
00:22:43.400
you know if you can't charge people for things then you got to run ads and that basically is what
00:22:46.760
happened hmm let's maybe give us a a short primer on on the stages of development here we have a web
00:22:53.720
one web two and web three i'm imagining you envision web three as ushering a new age of monetizing
00:23:02.200
everything potentially in a secure trustless way right let's climb there what do we mean by web one
00:23:09.240
two and three at this point sure so my partner chris dixon has sort of the best encapsulation of this
00:23:13.880
he says web one was read right and so the big breakthrough was you go online you could read
00:23:18.520
stuff you could see stuff you could do searches you could do all this but you were like you know
00:23:22.120
you could consume web two was what he calls read right right so and that's sort of the social
00:23:26.520
networking blogging video youtube you know kind of user-generated content era right so not only could
00:23:31.080
you read you could do what you do you could you could uh you know not only listen you could produce
00:23:34.840
podcasts and that that led to the you know kind of the whole the world that we've been in and then
00:23:38.840
he says web three is read write and own right and and own means you can own value right you can own
00:23:45.080
money you can own digital assets right you can own you know you can you can have ownership claims on
00:23:49.160
things right or you or you or you know you could equivalently you could say read write pay you could
00:23:53.000
say read write you know make money you know you could apply whatever term you want to that that
00:23:57.320
third one but basically basically fill in all of the economics and all of the capability of having
00:24:04.200
incentives and ownership that really should have been there from the start that like i said you know
00:24:08.680
we tried to get in from the start but we just didn't have the technology for now we basically
00:24:12.200
have a chance with these new technologies of blockchain cryptocurrency web3 you know we have
00:24:16.360
this we have basically we think a chance to kind of do the other half of the internet is how i think
00:24:21.000
about it or the you know the other third and it's basically have a trust layer a money layer and
00:24:26.280
an ownership layer that rides on top of the sort of untrusted unowned you know kind of space
00:24:31.960
that's been the internet so far and then kind of you know fill in all the things that we wish we
00:24:36.040
had been able to do from the start but but now we can actually do i wouldn't be alone in noticing
00:24:41.000
that there's a fair amount of skepticism about web3 at this point and a fair amount of schadenfreude
00:24:45.800
watching cryptocurrency crash or almost crash in recent months do you view that skepticism as truly
00:24:55.560
analogous to all of the naysayers around web1 when they thought the internet was just going to be
00:25:00.920
a bust and that no one was ever going to migrate away from you know their answering machine even
00:25:06.200
this email thing wasn't going to take off or do you think there is a greater foundation for a
00:25:11.720
perception of uh misspent dreams and failures of scaling the technology around the the energy
00:25:19.400
concerns the cost of it all the capacity for fraud the tulip mania aspect of the kind of the
00:25:26.760
investing landscape or the speculation landscape there how much of this is an echo of the the
00:25:31.960
early 90s and how much of this is a a genuinely new condition of uncertainty yeah so there's a lot
00:25:38.760
in there and we can you know we can go through each of those points here's the big thing i'd say
00:25:41.960
overall look a lot of things just don't work right so a lot of people have ideas for things that don't
00:25:46.360
work and so you know it's always possible that the critics are correct and it's always possible
00:25:49.720
something either is just never going to work or the other possibility is things are just too early
00:25:53.240
right what happens a lot of new technologies is they just take time you know there were people
00:25:56.920
doing analog there were people doing mechanical television 30 years before philo farnsworth did
00:26:00.760
electronic television they did mechanical television like the 1880s 1890s with like spinning wooden blocks
00:26:06.040
representing pixels right right and so there's this prehistory you know it's like what was it
00:26:10.840
paris had a telegraph system working through uh flashes of light through uh long glass tubes under
00:26:15.560
the streets of paris in like the 1830s right which was not practical right because the tubes kept
00:26:20.120
breaking but like people you know people had that idea way before the telegraph rolled out so
00:26:23.480
so anyway you know look for any new technology maybe you're just early maybe you're just wrong
00:26:26.760
altogether maybe it doesn't happen for the new technologies that do work you see basically a
00:26:32.680
pattern of the reaction to them um and i used to kind of think i was making i was kind of fantasizing
00:26:37.960
this and then i found a book that kind of explained it this book by this mit guy named elting morrison
00:26:42.520
50 years ago where he kind of goes through this is even pre-internet but he goes through the
00:26:45.320
whole history of new technologies and he said there's basically a three-stage process to the
00:26:48.600
adoption of any new technology stage one is just ignore right where basically just people pretend
00:26:53.400
it doesn't even exist and of course that's you know the internet was ignored basically from the
00:26:57.640
1960s through to the like i said kind of even into the even into the early 90s stage two is basically
00:27:02.840
vigorous protest and that's the stage where basically it's like a it's like basically here
00:27:08.040
are the 30 reasons this can never happen or call it the reasons phase right so here's the 30 reasons
00:27:12.440
this could never happen and usually what that is this is a laundry list of everything that's technically
00:27:15.880
wrong with new technology right so the internet it was it's too slow and it's not graphical and it's
00:27:20.360
this and it's insecure and the hackers and you know fraud and you know all this all these sort of you
00:27:25.160
know basically by the way real issues right these are all issues that actually had to get fixed and
00:27:29.480
then ultimately were fixed and then he said stage three stage three in the book he says is when the
00:27:35.000
name calling begins and so stage three is basically rage and what he basically says is it's basically rage
00:27:42.040
it's basically the existing power structures basically just like go incandescent with rage
00:27:46.520
and and he said the reason for that is because any new technology that works is a reordering of status
00:27:51.320
and power right in the system and basically the you know the status quo is you know what do they hate
00:27:56.280
more than anything else you know reordering of status and power right there's only downside for them
00:28:00.360
and so they just go crazy and that's when they pull out all the stops and they call you names and they
00:28:03.480
try to put you in jail and they do everything under the sun they can possibly do to sabotage it
00:28:07.240
and then you know and then look it has to prove itself right it has you know to get through those
00:28:10.520
three gauntlets like it has to be a real thing so so like i said it's not predictive that because
00:28:15.400
something goes through this it's going to work it's just that every single time something works
00:28:18.760
like this it goes through these stages and so at this point like i'm like i'm like inert to it right
00:28:24.680
like it's just i've seen it now so many times in the exact same sequence of of things that i'm just
00:28:29.560
like okay fine you know bring it this is what they're going to do we're just going to keep going
00:28:33.000
but what percentage of your time and commitment of resources at this point is focused on web 3
00:28:40.920
i mean we might actually need to i know i've done this on other podcasts but we probably should
00:28:45.560
define web 3 a little bit more just differentiating you know cryptocurrency from everything else that
00:28:50.920
could be done on the blockchain but um you can do that but but then how much of your attention and
00:28:57.160
and material resources are aimed at that at the moment yeah it's look it's a very big push for us
00:29:02.600
so we have a very big group in the space now it's probably a third of i would say you know you could
00:29:06.440
you could top line it and say maybe a third of the firm in terms of a combination of people and money
00:29:10.280
right which for us is it's one of our big it's one of our biggest it's one of our biggest things
00:29:13.800
okay so so give me the potted definition of web 3 at the moment yeah so let's take the three terms
00:29:18.600
that we kind of again kind of conjoined so so blockchain is like the underlying technological
00:29:22.440
breakthrough so so basically what happened was this this this this person he she it or they
00:29:28.280
named satoshi nakamoto never never identified are you swearing that this is not you
00:29:32.520
it is definitely not me okay although if it was that's exactly what i would be saying yes
00:29:38.200
but still i trust you somehow in the in this trustless environment well say you know same
00:29:41.880
is true for you if it was you you'd be asking you'd be pretending to ask me the question without
00:29:44.680
knowing too so i think it does stand a better chance of being you given our different backgrounds
00:29:49.160
but um do you have any suspicions about who it is or whether it's a single individual
00:29:54.200
yeah there are suspicion most of the people in the space think it was a combination of people it it was a
00:29:59.640
it was a deep technological breakthrough and it built on you know it was one of these things that
00:30:02.920
built on 30 years of prior work it was against one of these things that had kind of a long wind
00:30:06.360
up before and before it happened and so it was somebody and he he she or they posted a lot on
00:30:11.000
forums and you can read all the posts as it was in development so you can kind of see whoever it was
00:30:14.600
had like a very deep knowledge in the space and that that kind of reduces it down to a pretty small
00:30:18.280
number of candidates just given the nature of the technology at that time so it was probably
00:30:22.440
people think it was a handful of those people probably working together this is the bitcoin white
00:30:26.440
paper uh which one is this 2010 nine 2009 2009 well by the way profoundly significant by the way just
00:30:34.200
profoundly significant this gets missed but 2009 was the low of the economy and the stock market
00:30:38.680
and everything else and the high of unemployment following the financial crisis right so it was
00:30:42.360
the last year you would expect a major new break like everybody was in a horrible mood in 2009
00:30:47.160
i remember it very clearly because we started the firm then and everybody was like uniformly negative
00:30:50.440
that you could start a new venture capital firm and so in the middle of just like complete
00:30:54.120
misery and by the way in the middle of like the collapse of the prior financial system right
00:30:57.160
the sort of what we call the trad financial system right just being like completely trash
00:31:01.240
and discredited and falling apart and having to be bailed out right this like magic thing happens
00:31:05.480
this paper comes out and it just like you know basically redefines the industry it was a very special
00:31:09.480
moment did you see its significance immediately no i didn't no i no i wouldn't claim that you know
00:31:14.760
it was something kind of people knew about everybody read it people talked about it a lot it
00:31:18.600
it was like a parlor game in silicon valley for the first five years or so which is it's like you
00:31:23.720
know like even in silicon valley right it's like okay this probably is not going to be a thing like
00:31:28.120
really internet money you know geez right like all the reasons why you know you shouldn't be able
00:31:32.680
to do that can't do that it won't work uh but you know what the the silicon valley parlor game of
00:31:37.240
that is less maybe for you know some people had foresight and saw it but a lot of people didn't and a
00:31:41.000
lot of us were like wow but wouldn't it be cool if it did right and so then the parlor game was like wow like
00:31:45.640
you know what if you know we always have the joke it's like on earth two right you know this stuff is
00:31:49.960
all working right and it's like well what would earth two be like if it really had bitcoin everywhere
00:31:53.640
and it's like wow this is a really cool idea and then at some point you know we we and others were
00:31:58.200
just like okay like we need to stop being idiots here and basically just be like yeah this is actually
00:32:02.920
a thing this is actually going to happen this stands a very good chance of actually happening
00:32:06.680
our credit our partner biology srinivasan you know was the guy who kind of got us really clued in
00:32:11.160
on this and you know kind of sat us down at one point it's like look you guys have to stop
00:32:14.040
thinking about this as hypothetical like this thing is actually happening and so you know we
00:32:17.480
were early relative to the world but there were other people in the valley who were ahead of us
00:32:22.280
and is there a um kind of an initial cash of bitcoin that has not been claimed which is satoshi's
00:32:31.080
coin or there's an initial wallet that is still has the coin sitting in it or what's the the story
00:32:35.960
there yes this is part of the great kind of mythic legend behind the whole thing so you know all
00:32:43.800
the bitcoin is basically based on this underlying science of cryptography right which is a you know
00:32:48.120
it's an ancient science but in its modern form you know it's a 50 60 year old kind of thing in terms
00:32:53.400
of the way we use the technologies now the so-called public key cryptography and so it's all based on
00:32:58.040
that and as part of that you can have what are called private keys that are uniquely yours and as
00:33:03.160
part of that you can sign messages with your private key and and such that anybody in the world can
00:33:07.960
decode them or read them but only you could have written them right so you can have like absolute
00:33:12.040
validation that you were the you were the right you were the creator um and then the the and then
00:33:16.120
bitcoin wallets basically work the same way like you have a private key for the wallet and anybody
00:33:19.880
who has the private key can decrypt it right it's like a bearer instrument in that way but anybody who
00:33:23.960
doesn't have the private key you'd like can't you know they have no claim to it and so in very you
00:33:28.520
know along the over the years various people show up and claim to be satoshi but like none of them
00:33:32.040
can like demonstrate that they have the private key none of them can you know so therefore you have
00:33:35.480
nothing so anyway we sort of know we know how to recognize satoshi when we see he or they which
00:33:41.880
is they can use their private key to sign things they could also use their private key to unlock
00:33:45.640
the money i don't know what the current value is i'm gonna guess it's somewhere in the neighborhood
00:33:49.640
of 30 to 50 billion dollars us dollars today right that is sitting in a wallet somewhere that the
00:33:54.680
satoshi key unlocks that money has never been touched but that's an extraordinary fact if
00:33:59.880
yes if it's a single individual or a group of people i mean this is even without that this is
00:34:05.960
one of the best kept secrets ever but when you look at the treasure of sierra madre incentives that
00:34:13.480
are growing with that kind of wealth locked up in a box how do you explain that this is just this
00:34:19.240
person is ideologically so pure and enamored of the brilliance of this founding myth and moment that
00:34:27.240
they're just they're not tempted to suddenly own 50 billion dollars yes exactly so so this is the
00:34:34.040
amazing thing the fact that money was not claimed for a long time right and by the way the message
00:34:39.560
has stopped after the bitcoin white paper came out satoshi stopped posting in public and so and by
00:34:45.320
the way you have to pause for a second here to say how prescient must this person have been to not
00:34:49.720
only develop this thing and write it and create it after basically 30 years of people trying to do the
00:34:53.560
the same thing by the way like this this was the breakthrough how prescient was he she hit or they
00:34:58.200
that not only did they get the technology right but also they knew ahead of time that they needed to
00:35:02.280
stay anonymous right like that's not normal like it's not like i've never been anonymous like it's not
00:35:07.880
normal in our industry to be anonymous yeah and so whoever it is had like tremendous tremendous
00:35:13.240
foresight to to to to know to do that and then yeah to not claim the money so the the prevailing view
00:35:18.120
for a long time was he she it or they are dead right which is the most most obvious thing and and
00:35:22.200
and you know there there is at least one candidate for satoshi who did pass away so you know it's
00:35:27.080
it's certainly possible that's the case it's also possible by the way something very embarrassing
00:35:30.440
happened it's possible he she it or they forgot their key yeah forgot their key which would be
00:35:35.320
embarrassing yeah the kind of thing that might torture you for a long time and then this weird
00:35:39.640
thing happened i don't remember there was newsweek magazine did this cover story claiming that they
00:35:43.480
had uncovered satoshi nakamoto and they they okay so this is several years ago now this huge uh newsweek cover
00:35:49.960
story and they said we found satoshi and they identified an older gentleman who is a japanese
00:35:55.080
american named dorian nakamoto who is like an aerospace engineer or something in like i forget
00:36:00.120
southern california somewhere like i want to say san diego or orange county and they did this entire
00:36:04.440
expose about he's the guy and the whole time he's like i'm not the guy i'm not the guy i'm not the guy i'm
00:36:08.520
not the guy and they're like yes you are and and you know in the in the cs community like we're all
00:36:12.760
like well he's not a computer scientist he's not he's he seems like he's like a smart engineer but he
00:36:16.680
doesn't have this background like this seems weird so anyway there was one final message
00:36:20.600
signed by satoshi's private key that came out at that point and it literally was i am not dorian
00:36:24.520
nakamoto uh-huh and then satoshi has since gone quiet and so now we're back we're back to the great
00:36:31.560
mystery which you know i i hope you know i don't know i don't actually i don't know if i hope it gets
00:36:35.880
solved i would you know the engineer in me would like to know but you know it may be better for you
00:36:40.120
know i think the world should have some mystery to it and if this is the fundamental breakthrough that
00:36:44.440
sort of is a division in you know before and after civilization we never find out who the
00:36:48.120
person was that i think there's something romantic about that so yeah i kind of hope we never find out
00:36:51.800
it's a great story so i derailed you you did not yet differentiate bitcoin from all else that can
00:36:58.520
happen on the blockchain yeah so blockchain is the under so basically the white paper basically came
00:37:02.760
out the bitcoin white it's very short people can read it and basically um the uh basically it says
00:37:07.240
we have this basically a data structure called the blockchain which is a way to do uh decentralized
00:37:12.120
permissionless basically data structure that everybody agrees on which we could talk about
00:37:15.880
sort of it's sort of a way to do a database but in a database that kind of is spread out across the
00:37:19.720
internet we call that the blockchain it's literally a chain of blocks and then so and and the computer
00:37:25.000
science term is distributed consensus and so that's if you read the computer science literature like that
00:37:28.840
that's the thing that was solved that's the technology breakthrough like the you know the cold
00:37:32.200
fusion or whatever of the thing and then basically said there's an there's sort of an immediate
00:37:35.880
and obvious use case for this which is digital money because if i have a if i have a basically a
00:37:40.760
database an internet-wide database that records you know debits and credits or records ownership
00:37:46.360
of assets then basically i could just basically those slots can represent money uh they can represent
00:37:51.880
value and if you own the slot today you own the money and if i own the slot tomorrow you know i own
00:37:56.360
the money and and and there it goes and and and it's this giant it's this way to get agreement
00:38:00.760
so it's a distributed consensus it's a way to get consensus of who owns what across the entire internet
00:38:05.080
and and and actually what happens and this is a subtle point is the use case of the capability of doing
00:38:10.440
digital money is sort of an artifact it's it's sort of a natural consequence of having this kind
00:38:14.840
of database and then by the way it turns out you also you you also want a form of digital money to
00:38:19.880
make a blockchain work because you need to pay the miners right and so the the way the blockchain works
00:38:24.120
is people run the code on their on their computers and you know that costs them some amount of money
00:38:28.680
primarily in the form of power you know they got well they got to buy the computers then they got to power
00:38:31.960
the computers and store them somewhere and so the way the miners get paid is with the currency that sort
00:38:36.680
of emerges from the system so you've got the you got the blockchain which is sort of the infrastructure
00:38:40.600
and then you've got this like use case artifact spin-off emergent thing which is kind of this you
00:38:45.480
know the coin the the currency that comes out the other end that was that original pairing and then
00:38:51.160
immediately upon that release people started to say okay that's great and and you know the the the
00:38:56.520
true believers right up front were like okay that's great that's obviously going to happen and
00:38:59.560
then they basically right from the beginning they started saying okay what else could you do with the
00:39:03.000
blockchain and that leads to all these other use cases that people are talking about now and that's
00:39:06.680
what we call web3 so we we we use the term web3 for all of the basically use cases of the blockchain
00:39:12.760
which includes digital money but the other you know hundred ideas that people are pursuing today
00:39:16.280
right right and how much of your investment and and bullishness with respect to web3 is predicated
00:39:25.240
on the expectation that bitcoin will endure bitcoin specifically as a if not the only
00:39:32.680
cryptocurrency and store of value that a major one yeah so bitcoin's really unusual and it goes back
00:39:40.040
to you know this original kind of founding you know myth reality which is very unusual which is it's not
00:39:44.920
changing right and so and if you just think about technology like we have this adage in in the valley
00:39:49.560
it's like technology is like bananas like like it goes it new technology becomes obsolete almost immediately
00:39:54.600
right like i i ship and you know you see this all the time now i ship a new whatever this that video
00:39:58.840
game play or whatever it's like you know a year later it's like you know it's last year's news
00:40:02.520
it's the previous iphone model right and and so you know it's it's it's the great you know glory of
00:40:07.160
the tech industry it's like we keep pushing this stuff forward we keep doing new things and so you
00:40:11.080
know we there's a museum in san jose called it you know the museum of whatever computer museum
00:40:14.680
computer history museum is you know it's fun to go to but it's it's you know every single thing in
00:40:18.520
it is something nobody uses anymore yeah because they're all obsolete and so any other area
00:40:23.640
technology you'd say you know bitcoin comes out the founder vanishes it doesn't change it's
00:40:28.200
essentially unchanged you know they made a little tinkering around it but it's essentially unchanged
00:40:31.960
since 2009 it's now 13 years old it's obviously going to be completely obsolete and by the way
00:40:36.200
lots of other people have developed lots of new blockchains and lots of new forms of cryptocurrency
00:40:39.560
and lots of new web3 things and so forth along the way and so shouldn't it just kind of fade away
00:40:43.560
you know so you know we honor it as the forerunner of what we have but we're building better systems now
00:40:48.840
the thing that's so unusual about it on this topic is that it it is digital gold right and so
00:40:54.680
it it it's it's sort of one and only like real foundational fundamental use case to store value
00:40:59.720
and and basically it's like okay it's digital gold and so like what would you if you were going to
00:41:04.120
basically write a spec for digital gold what would you say would be the main thing you would need from
00:41:08.120
it and the main thing you would need from it is that it doesn't change right right so this is like
00:41:12.280
the one application of technology i've ever seen where it's actually a benefit right it's a part of the
00:41:17.560
bull case for it that it doesn't change in particular because the amount of it doesn't
00:41:21.000
change you're not going to find much more of it suddenly yeah that's right the amount the amount
00:41:24.920
of it is fixed the amount of it is fixed but but even more than that it's like bitcoin 10 years it's
00:41:29.320
the only thing i know of where 10 years from now 20 years from now 100 years from now it's going to
00:41:32.120
be running essentially the same way that it runs today and it's just it's literally because like
00:41:35.960
satoshi's not here to change it and nobody else is going to change it and like it's just it's
00:41:39.560
it's on its track and so but it's if it's if it's literally digital gold if it's like a permanent store of
00:41:44.040
value then all of a sudden you've taken what historically be a weakness turn it into a strength
00:41:47.320
so so so my my best guess would be that bitcoin is sort of the digital gold my best guess though
00:41:53.480
also would be that it's it's it's new systems being developed today or over the next you know
00:41:57.640
10 years you know that will basically take all the other use cases and there and again it's the same
00:42:02.120
thing bitcoin is not changing bitcoin can't actually do all the other use cases and so it's
00:42:05.960
going to have to be new developments and so we're we're we're in the and camp you know this has become
00:42:10.360
a very you know this is you know this is this is a full-fledged religious war at this point so
00:42:14.360
there are um you know very strong believers with a great deal of kind of force and energy on on all
00:42:19.000
sides of this and so there's definitely you know schisms on this but we we're kind of a big tent
00:42:23.080
kind of thing and we're we're making we're making all the bets we're including uh bitcoin so but but
00:42:27.560
you you're betting that bitcoin doesn't become the digital currency you're distinguishing it as a store
00:42:34.920
of value from it being a an efficient and scalable digital dollar essentially yeah so it it can't in
00:42:42.680
its current form it can't it can't be the digital dollar it it the the the transaction processing
00:42:48.600
system of bitcoin the way the blockchain works it it's not built for that level of scale and
00:42:53.560
performance right yeah and you you can see that by the way because there's a cost associated with
00:42:57.080
transactions there's so-called mining fees and you know the cost to clear a transaction through
00:43:00.920
bitcoin is is not i don't know what it is today but it's non-trivial and so and and then there's long
00:43:05.480
delays and so we just like it's just not going to be able to do that and that's today right if
00:43:10.920
if it actually takes on you know uh you know even like a quarter of the global economy it's going to
00:43:15.000
be many you know orders of magnitude bigger than it is today and it's not gonna be able to handle it so
00:43:19.480
so this is the this is the downside of satoshi no longer being with us is like it's it's not adapting
00:43:24.280
to be able like on earth two satoshi stayed involved and bitcoin became everything but like that's
00:43:29.800
that's not that's not what's happening on earth one now look having said that there are smart
00:43:33.400
entrepreneurs that are developing layers on top of bitcoin where they're going to try to like make
00:43:36.840
that happen you know jack dorsey who's a smart guy has a whole effort to try to like have layers on
00:43:40.680
top of bitcoin to do this kind of thing there are other people trying to do it so there are people
00:43:43.720
trying to kind of augment bitcoin and kind of turbocharge it in different ways maybe some of
00:43:47.560
those efforts will work or maybe it will just be brand new systems there's also by the way a big
00:43:51.800
transition a big technology transition underway you know you know the original way bitcoin worked
00:43:56.520
was so-called proof of work where you solve all these math problems um you know to sort of validate
00:44:00.920
that you own what you own as the way the the underlying transaction processing engine works
00:44:05.000
there's sort of an overall architecture change being kind of proposed in the industry which
00:44:08.760
is to what's called proof of stake which is a sort of a much less energy you know sort of aggressive
00:44:13.480
thing and and so if and if if if ethereum is switching from from proof of work to proof of stake
00:44:19.240
and so proof of stake works like it's it's one of these phase shifts that happens in the industry
00:44:22.280
where it's just things work differently on the other side bitcoin would remain proof of work
00:44:25.880
because it it kind of can't change but but you'll you may have these new systems that just
00:44:29.160
fundamentally work both different and much better for like high-scale transaction processing
00:44:33.080
that that's a that's a you know that's a tbd but like we're pretty confident that that has a good
00:44:37.560
chance of succeeding so i guess so now i want to kind of pivot to if not politics uh you know
00:44:45.400
politics adjacent larger societal concerns you know where we are at this moment in history how technology is
00:44:52.760
coming to the rescue or failing to come to the rescue uh and i guess i as a starting point to this
00:44:58.120
chapter in the conversation i would reference the essay you wrote early in covid titled it's time to
00:45:04.520
build um which was really this you know the the technologists and entrepreneurs and and in your
00:45:11.640
case uh vc's heart cry for you know over just the misspent energy of the moment and just how much
00:45:19.400
how we should so many of us at the time were feeling that we really needed to seize this opportunity to
00:45:26.040
shore up our our society against you know the forces of fragmentation and it really was an
00:45:33.400
opportunity to get our heads straight and i i don't know how you feel about this but i think i you know
00:45:38.840
looking back on i mean obviously we're still in covid land to some degree but i look back on it as a kind
00:45:44.360
of failed dress rehearsal for something much worse i mean i think that i think there will be things that
00:45:50.360
that are that are much worse and i'm not drawing the comforting lesson that i wish i could draw from
00:45:57.960
our performance the over these last couple of years that we've learned many lessons even if we've made
00:46:04.280
some obvious mistakes we understand what those mistakes were and we're not going to make those
00:46:08.840
mistakes again i just feel like we're we're all waking up from a bad dream and in in the waking state
00:46:15.800
some of the the horrible creatures of the dream are still with us and that we're not all that much
00:46:21.240
wiser take me back to the moment you wrote that essay and give me your your view of the last couple
00:46:27.240
of years what did covid do to us yeah so that essay was a primal scream i think it probably comes across
00:46:34.200
that way and i kind of say that in the essay so so it was it was at a very specific moment it was when
00:46:38.520
the you know covid was hitting in new york city um and you know we all thought you know we all thought
00:46:42.360
covid was going to hit us hard everywhere it fortunately it didn't but like you know in
00:46:45.800
retrospect like there were specific moments like the it you know italy was a catastrophe and then
00:46:50.680
and then you know new york city was a catastrophe there were some others but it you know it fortunately
00:46:53.960
it didn't actually hit the rest of the country the way it hit new york but at that moment it seemed
00:46:56.920
like we were all really in for it yeah to the degree to which new york was in for it at that time
00:47:00.440
which was you know very catastrophic for people in new york at that moment you know those were the days of
00:47:04.280
just like constant wailing you know ambulance you know sounds everywhere in new york and so the mayor of
00:47:09.480
new york he since departed bill de blasio uh put out a call and said you know the people with rain
00:47:15.960
ponchos could please donate them to local hospitals for use of surgical gowns yes that inspires confidence
00:47:20.520
in our civilization just like gee you know by the way is this a family podcast or can i swear you
00:47:25.960
swear to your heart's content jesus you know i was like jesus christ like like really like you know
00:47:32.440
the civilization of the united states of america 240 years in or whatever literally like we're using rain
00:47:37.560
ponchos for surgical gowns in hospitals in new york city honestly like that's where we've gotten
00:47:42.520
to you know we don't you know we don't have masks we don't have this we don't have that and and now
00:47:46.440
we don't have freaking surgical gowns so it's like this is just ridiculous and so that that that that
00:47:52.040
sort of and then you know what i try to do if you'd like to continue listening to this conversation
00:47:58.360
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