Making Sense - Sam Harris - #292 — How Much Does the Future Matter？

00:00:00.000 Welcome to the Making Sense Podcast.

00:00:23.700 This is Sam Harris.

00:00:26.860 Well, it's been a big week for news.

00:00:30.000 I think I'm going to wait for a few more shoes to drop

00:00:32.860 before touching any of it.

00:00:37.120 Earlier in the week, Trump's home at Mar-a-Lago.

00:00:42.920 Is that really his home?

00:00:45.100 That golf club that looks like a dictator's palace 0.51

00:00:48.520 and what he might call a shithole country?

00:00:51.180 It was raided by, quote, raided by the FBI

00:00:56.440 in search of misappropriated documents

00:01:01.280 that may or may not contain secrets about nuclear weapons

00:01:05.800 or nuclear policy or something nuclear.

00:01:10.140 Again, I think I'll wait for more information to surface

00:01:13.380 before I comment on this, but

00:01:15.060 needless to say, it would not surprise me 0.98

00:01:18.640 if Trump had done something terrifyingly inept 0.99

00:01:23.000 and self-serving and even nefarious. 0.98

00:01:27.300 So, let's just wait and see what happens there.

00:01:31.060 I share many people's concern

00:01:33.240 that the execution of this search warrant

00:01:35.560 was inflammatory enough

00:01:37.860 that if the facts, in the end,

00:01:41.060 don't seem to merit it,

00:01:42.240 it will be yet another thing

00:01:44.700 that bolsters Trump's political stature

00:01:47.840 in the personality cult

00:01:50.180 that has subsumed the Republican Party.

00:01:53.660 And that would be a bad thing.

00:01:55.800 Once again, this is an asymmetrical war of ideas

00:01:58.780 and any misstep that seems to suggest

00:02:04.120 that our institutions have become politicized,

00:02:07.000 in this case, the FBI,

00:02:10.800 run, we should note, by a Trump appointee,

00:02:14.860 Christopher Wray,

00:02:16.040 not the fittest object for allegations

00:02:18.540 of anti-Trump partisanship, really.

00:02:21.480 But any apparent bias here

00:02:25.500 makes any further discussion of facts

00:02:28.840 more or less impossible.

00:02:31.400 So anyway, let's wait for the dust to settle.

00:02:34.100 Well, let's see what was actually in those boxes.

00:02:38.740 And maybe there'll be more to say.

00:02:42.820 And then yesterday,

00:02:45.840 the author Salman Rushdie

00:02:47.100 was attacked on stage

00:02:49.480 by a man wielding a knife

00:02:52.700 under conditions where

00:02:54.680 he obviously did not have enough security.

00:02:58.040 And it sounds like he is on life support now.

00:03:01.980 So that obviously is terrible.

00:03:04.640 And I share everyone's horror on his account.

00:03:09.060 I said as much on Twitter,

00:03:11.380 not so many hours ago,

00:03:12.840 where I wrote,

00:03:14.240 like many of you,

00:03:15.080 I'm thinking about Salman Rushdie now.

00:03:17.640 The threat he's lived under for so long,

00:03:19.920 which was so horrifically realized today,

00:03:22.200 was the product not merely of the hatred

00:03:24.180 and zeal of religious fanatics, 0.98

00:03:26.100 but of the cowardice and confusion of secularists.

00:03:29.860 Everyone in arts and letters

00:03:31.080 should have stood shoulder to shoulder

00:03:32.500 with Salman in 1989,

00:03:34.840 thereby distributing the risk.

00:03:36.900 And the fact that so few did

00:03:38.240 is a moral scandal

00:03:39.240 that still casts its shadow over the present.

00:03:41.360 And now I now notice in my

00:03:44.360 at mentions that I am being attacked

00:03:47.260 by many people

00:03:49.840 for being soft on Islam 0.98

00:03:53.000 and for using the phrase

00:03:54.860 religious fanatics

00:03:56.400 out of an apparent unwillingness

00:03:58.980 to name Islam

00:04:00.580 and its theology

00:04:01.960 as the culpable party here.

00:04:05.640 All I can say is I'm

00:04:06.800 surprised and

00:04:08.360 somewhat amused by this.

00:04:10.000 I mean, these are people

00:04:10.720 who clearly

00:04:11.400 don't know my history.

00:04:12.620 I have been accused

00:04:14.380 of Islamophobia

00:04:15.260 even more than I've been accused

00:04:17.400 of having

00:04:17.820 Trump derangement syndrome.

00:04:19.580 It might surprise

00:04:20.360 some of you to learn.

00:04:22.220 Anyway, my conscience

00:04:23.180 on that score is

00:04:24.280 quite clear.

00:04:26.920 And I invite those of you

00:04:27.840 who doubt my bona fides

00:04:29.240 as a critic of Islam

00:04:31.160 to do some googling.

00:04:33.660 I even wrote an op-ed

00:04:34.960 with Salman

00:04:35.860 in defense of our mutual friend

00:04:38.020 Ayaan Hirsi Ali

00:04:38.960 I think in 2007.

00:04:41.560 That's on my blog

00:04:43.240 somewhere.

00:04:44.980 I believe the title is

00:04:46.320 Ayaan Hirsi Ali

00:04:47.540 Abandoned to Fanatics.

00:04:50.520 It was published

00:04:51.480 in the Los Angeles Times

00:04:52.580 but I think it's behind

00:04:53.300 a paywall there.

00:04:55.380 Anyway, I don't actually

00:04:56.480 know Salman

00:04:57.780 despite the fact that

00:04:59.420 we wrote that op-ed together.

00:05:01.180 That was accomplished

00:05:02.220 by email.

00:05:03.580 We've never met

00:05:04.760 in person

00:05:05.560 which surprises me.

00:05:08.100 We've always had

00:05:08.780 several good friends

00:05:09.760 in common.

00:05:10.740 Ayaan being one

00:05:12.500 Hitch being

00:05:14.640 another.

00:05:16.800 Salman was

00:05:17.400 one of Hitch's

00:05:18.560 best friends.

00:05:19.980 I was merely a friend.

00:05:22.160 Anyway,

00:05:23.180 thinking about him

00:05:24.160 and

00:05:25.600 I would just say

00:05:27.480 by way of spelling out

00:05:28.460 further

00:05:28.880 the point I was making

00:05:30.560 on Twitter

00:05:31.380 my use of the phrase

00:05:33.120 religious fanatics

00:05:34.240 was not at all

00:05:36.060 an instance of my

00:05:37.280 mincing words

00:05:38.380 with respect to Islam

00:05:39.920 although I can see

00:05:41.580 how someone might

00:05:42.600 have thought that

00:05:43.580 if they were unfamiliar

00:05:44.920 with my work

00:05:45.660 I was just assuming

00:05:47.300 enough familiarity

00:05:48.680 with what I have said

00:05:49.920 and written on this topic

00:05:50.880 that it simply

00:05:51.820 never occurred to me

00:05:53.120 that I could be accused

00:05:54.560 of pandering

00:05:56.040 to Islamic extremists

00:05:57.760 here

00:05:58.300 or to the confused

00:05:59.880 liberal secularists

00:06:01.380 who would support

00:06:02.420 such pandering

00:06:03.080 I just assumed

00:06:04.860 my reputation

00:06:05.780 preceded me here

00:06:06.780 anyway

00:06:08.560 the real point

00:06:09.280 I was making here

00:06:09.940 was that

00:06:10.380 the problem has

00:06:11.520 always been larger

00:06:12.980 than mere

00:06:14.360 Islamic extremism

00:06:16.200 and 0.51

00:06:17.120 its intolerance

00:06:18.880 to free speech

00:06:19.840 this extremism

00:06:21.460 has been given

00:06:22.400 an immense amount

00:06:23.820 of oxygen

00:06:24.520 by confused

00:06:25.920 and cowardly

00:06:26.860 and 0.93

00:06:27.140 in some cases

00:06:28.500 well-intentioned

00:06:30.100 people

00:06:30.500 who

00:06:31.900 worry that

00:06:33.260 any criticism

00:06:33.940 of Islam

00:06:34.700 will give energy 0.63

00:06:36.200 to racism

00:06:37.440 and xenophobia

00:06:38.600 Salman

00:06:40.340 was attacked

00:06:41.120 by such people

00:06:42.200 from the moment

00:06:43.500 the Ayatollah

00:06:44.620 pronounced

00:06:45.420 his fatwa

00:06:46.620 and the list

00:06:48.100 of people

00:06:48.640 who

00:06:49.960 rushed

00:06:51.100 to heap

00:06:52.220 shame

00:06:53.060 upon their heads

00:06:54.040 by

00:06:54.940 criticizing

00:06:56.240 a novelist

00:06:57.600 forced into hiding

00:06:59.320 out of

00:07:00.560 deference

00:07:01.120 for the

00:07:01.640 sensitivities

00:07:02.840 of religious 1.00

00:07:04.000 lunatics 1.00

00:07:04.660 is an awful

00:07:06.040 list of names

00:07:06.820 and so it is

00:07:08.160 with more recent

00:07:08.840 atrocities

00:07:09.560 like the

00:07:10.440 Charlie Hebdo

00:07:11.160 massacre

00:07:12.020 the people

00:07:13.740 who

00:07:14.180 explicitly

00:07:14.920 or implicitly

00:07:16.060 took the side

00:07:17.180 of the

00:07:17.460 jihadist 0.99

00:07:18.140 murderers 0.63

00:07:18.880 in criticizing

00:07:20.020 the butchered

00:07:20.740 cartoonists

00:07:21.600 for their

00:07:22.100 alleged

00:07:22.500 insensitivity

00:07:23.380 these are people

00:07:24.560 who are still

00:07:25.020 in good standing

00:07:25.840 in many cases

00:07:27.360 and I'm not aware

00:07:28.900 that any

00:07:29.440 have apologized

00:07:30.620 for having

00:07:31.460 got those

00:07:32.000 moments of

00:07:32.520 moral and

00:07:33.180 political

00:07:33.520 emergency

00:07:34.080 so disastrously

00:07:35.760 wrong

00:07:36.220 I'm doing my

00:07:37.520 best not to

00:07:38.060 name names

00:07:38.580 here

00:07:38.840 but anyone

00:07:40.060 interested

00:07:40.480 can see

00:07:41.520 who took

00:07:42.360 the side

00:07:42.820 of religious

00:07:43.980 barbarians

00:07:44.740 there

00:07:45.560 and there have

00:07:47.140 been so many

00:07:47.660 moments

00:07:48.100 like that

00:07:49.120 since the

00:07:49.940 fatwa

00:07:50.360 Salman was

00:07:51.160 first

00:07:51.600 pronounced

00:07:52.240 and many

00:07:53.980 of you

00:07:54.320 who are

00:07:54.780 living by

00:07:56.100 podcast

00:07:56.580 and

00:07:57.060 sub-stack

00:07:57.580 newsletter

00:07:58.080 might

00:07:59.100 take a look

00:08:00.340 because some

00:08:01.660 of your

00:08:01.880 modern

00:08:02.320 free speech

00:08:03.140 heroes

00:08:03.520 were people

00:08:04.560 who thought

00:08:05.600 that just

00:08:06.060 maybe those

00:08:06.640 cartoonists

00:08:07.420 had it coming

00:08:08.460 to them

00:08:08.820 anyway

00:08:10.440 this is an

00:08:11.040 awful thing

00:08:11.740 I hope

00:08:13.200 Salman recovers

00:08:14.100 and

00:08:15.780 whatever

00:08:17.460 happens there

00:08:18.240 if there's more

00:08:19.200 to say

00:08:19.600 I'll do a

00:08:20.340 podcast

00:08:20.840 on it

00:08:21.440 okay

00:08:24.140 today I'm

00:08:26.020 speaking with

00:08:26.620 Will McCaskill

00:08:27.440 Will is an

00:08:29.220 associate professor

00:08:29.920 in philosophy

00:08:30.540 at the University

00:08:31.260 of Oxford

00:08:31.780 and a

00:08:33.340 TED speaker

00:08:34.140 a past

00:08:35.920 Forbes

00:08:36.600 30 under

00:08:37.240 30 social

00:08:38.260 entrepreneur

00:08:38.720 he also

00:08:40.220 co-founded the

00:08:41.020 Center for

00:08:41.380 Effective Altruism

00:08:42.260 which has raised

00:08:43.660 over a billion

00:08:44.280 dollars for

00:08:45.040 charities

00:08:45.500 and he's the

00:08:47.260 author most

00:08:47.860 recently of a

00:08:48.680 wonderful book

00:08:49.380 titled

00:08:50.500 What We

00:08:51.100 Owe the

00:08:51.400 Future

00:08:51.720 and that

00:08:53.140 is in part

00:08:53.700 the topic

00:08:54.640 of today's

00:08:55.440 discussion

00:08:55.960 I'll just

00:08:57.560 read you the

00:08:57.960 blurb I

00:08:58.760 wrote for

00:08:59.060 that book

00:08:59.500 because it'll

00:09:00.600 give you a

00:09:00.920 sense of how

00:09:01.280 important I

00:09:01.800 think Will's

00:09:02.660 work is

00:09:03.420 no living

00:09:05.420 philosopher has

00:09:06.240 had a greater

00:09:06.700 impact upon

00:09:07.460 my ethics

00:09:08.120 than Will

00:09:08.700 McCaskill

00:09:09.220 in What We

00:09:10.600 Owe the

00:09:10.840 Future

00:09:11.180 McCaskill has

00:09:11.960 transformed my

00:09:12.800 thinking once

00:09:13.400 again by

00:09:14.660 patiently

00:09:15.080 dismantling the

00:09:16.020 lazy intuitions

00:09:17.060 that rendered

00:09:17.840 me morally

00:09:18.440 blind to the

00:09:19.900 interests of

00:09:20.420 future generations

00:09:21.220 this is an

00:09:22.340 altogether thrilling

00:09:23.240 and necessary

00:09:23.980 book and that

00:09:26.100 pretty much says

00:09:26.980 it the book is

00:09:28.740 also blurbed by

00:09:29.980 several friends

00:09:31.640 Paul Bloom

00:09:32.460 Tim Urban

00:09:33.340 Stephen Fry

00:09:34.640 as you'll hear

00:09:35.940 Will has been

00:09:36.440 getting a lot of

00:09:36.960 press recently

00:09:38.040 there was a

00:09:39.340 New Yorker

00:09:39.860 profile that

00:09:41.360 came out a

00:09:41.780 couple of days

00:09:42.260 ago also the

00:09:43.700 cover of Time

00:09:44.220 Magazine was

00:09:45.140 devoted to him

00:09:45.900 and the

00:09:46.580 effective altruism

00:09:47.260 movement

00:09:48.440 and all of

00:09:49.100 this is great

00:09:49.580 to see

00:09:49.960 so Will and

00:09:51.620 I get into

00:09:52.020 the book

00:09:52.380 we talk about

00:09:53.560 effective altruism

00:09:54.540 in general

00:09:55.040 and its

00:09:55.800 emphasis on

00:09:56.360 long-termism

00:09:57.180 and existential

00:09:58.480 risk

00:09:59.000 we talk about

00:10:00.340 criticisms of

00:10:01.320 the philosophy

00:10:02.280 and some of the

00:10:04.260 problems with

00:10:04.880 expected value

00:10:05.780 reasoning

00:10:06.240 we talk about

00:10:08.120 the difference

00:10:08.520 between doing

00:10:09.180 good and

00:10:09.660 feeling good

00:10:10.360 why it's so

00:10:11.620 hard to care

00:10:12.200 about future

00:10:12.820 people

00:10:13.180 how the

00:10:14.540 future gives

00:10:15.040 meaning to

00:10:15.520 the present

00:10:16.020 why this

00:10:17.260 moment in

00:10:17.740 history is

00:10:18.260 unusual

00:10:18.700 which relates

00:10:19.940 to the pace

00:10:20.560 of economic

00:10:21.220 and technological

00:10:22.080 growth

00:10:22.580 we discuss

00:10:24.780 bad political

00:10:25.620 incentives

00:10:26.240 value lock-in

00:10:28.040 the well-being

00:10:29.200 of conscious

00:10:29.680 creatures as a

00:10:30.400 foundation for

00:10:31.140 ethics

00:10:31.500 the risk of

00:10:32.820 unaligned artificial

00:10:33.960 intelligence

00:10:34.660 how we're bad

00:10:36.040 at predicting

00:10:36.620 technological change

00:10:38.060 and many other

00:10:39.520 topics

00:10:39.960 no paywall

00:10:41.420 for this one

00:10:41.980 as I think

00:10:42.820 it's so important

00:10:43.460 as always

00:10:44.460 if you want to

00:10:44.880 support what

00:10:45.300 I'm doing here

00:10:45.900 you can subscribe

00:10:47.380 to the podcast

00:10:48.260 at samharris.org

00:10:49.840 and now I bring

00:10:51.780 you Will McCaskill

00:10:52.980 I am back

00:11:00.180 once again

00:11:00.660 with the great

00:11:01.120 Will McCaskill

00:11:01.920 Will thanks for

00:11:03.080 joining me again

00:11:03.600 thanks so much

00:11:04.640 it's great to be

00:11:05.120 back on

00:11:05.540 so you are

00:11:07.000 having a bit

00:11:08.260 of a wild ride

00:11:09.000 you have a new

00:11:09.920 book

00:11:10.260 and that book

00:11:11.360 is What We

00:11:11.940 Owe the Future

00:11:12.580 and I got an

00:11:14.040 early

00:11:14.420 very early

00:11:15.720 look at that

00:11:16.380 and it's really

00:11:17.800 wonderful

00:11:18.380 and it's

00:11:19.080 I don't think

00:11:20.260 we'll cover

00:11:20.720 all of it here

00:11:22.100 but we'll

00:11:22.460 definitely get

00:11:23.120 into it

00:11:23.540 but before we

00:11:24.520 do that

00:11:25.100 I want to

00:11:26.220 talk about

00:11:27.140 effective

00:11:28.280 altruism

00:11:28.980 more generally

00:11:30.080 and in

00:11:31.340 particular

00:11:31.600 talk about

00:11:32.180 some of the

00:11:32.960 pushback

00:11:34.060 I've noticed

00:11:35.280 of late

00:11:36.120 against it

00:11:36.980 and some

00:11:37.940 of this

00:11:38.200 echoes

00:11:38.620 reservations

00:11:40.020 I've had

00:11:40.760 with the

00:11:41.140 movement

00:11:41.460 and some

00:11:42.080 of which

00:11:42.340 we've

00:11:42.680 discussed

00:11:43.200 and some

00:11:44.220 of it

00:11:44.500 strikes me

00:11:45.460 as frankly

00:11:46.080 crazy

00:11:46.940 so 0.98

00:11:47.920 yeah

00:11:48.700 let's just

00:11:49.320 get into

00:11:49.640 that

00:11:49.840 but

00:11:50.040 before we

00:11:51.500 do

00:11:51.620 how are you

00:11:52.200 doing

00:11:52.400 how's

00:11:52.740 life

00:11:53.240 I mean

00:11:53.800 things are

00:11:54.180 very good

00:11:54.540 overall

00:11:54.900 I definitely

00:11:56.000 feel a little

00:11:57.500 bit shell-shocked

00:11:58.460 by the wave

00:11:59.740 of attention

00:12:00.420 I'm currently

00:12:00.900 through

00:12:01.280 and

00:12:02.060 I don't

00:12:04.340 know

00:12:04.540 I'm

00:12:04.860 alternating

00:12:05.960 between

00:12:06.620 excitement

00:12:07.360 and anxiety

00:12:08.040 but

00:12:09.040 overall

00:12:09.460 it's

00:12:09.680 very good

00:12:10.020 indeed

00:12:10.260 and I'm

00:12:10.640 happy

00:12:10.860 these ideas

00:12:11.360 are getting

00:12:11.600 more airtime

00:12:12.160 am I right

00:12:13.100 in thinking

00:12:13.580 that I

00:12:14.480 just saw

00:12:15.700 EA

00:12:16.180 and a long

00:12:17.620 interview

00:12:17.860 with you

00:12:18.280 on the

00:12:18.900 cover of

00:12:19.360 Time magazine

00:12:20.020 that's exactly

00:12:20.740 right

00:12:21.020 so that

00:12:21.360 that was

00:12:22.180 the news

00:12:22.520 of today

00:12:22.880 that came

00:12:23.320 out this

00:12:23.640 morning

00:12:23.920 and I

00:12:24.800 think it's

00:12:25.120 a beautiful

00:12:25.460 piece

00:12:25.800 by Naina

00:12:26.240 Bajakal

00:12:26.740 and yeah

00:12:27.880 I'd encourage

00:12:28.280 anyone to

00:12:28.720 lead it

00:12:28.980 if they

00:12:29.200 want to

00:12:29.400 get a

00:12:29.640 sense

00:12:29.860 of

00:12:30.100 what

00:12:30.720 the

00:12:30.840 EA

00:12:31.000 movement

00:12:31.300 is

00:12:31.520 like

00:12:31.740 from

00:12:31.920 the

00:12:32.020 inside

00:12:32.300 that's

00:12:33.380 great

00:12:33.660 that's

00:12:34.040 great

00:12:34.200 well

00:12:34.340 congratulations

00:12:34.900 I'm very

00:12:35.660 happy to

00:12:36.020 see

00:12:36.260 that

00:12:36.840 attention

00:12:37.280 being

00:12:37.760 bent

00:12:38.040 your

00:12:38.200 way

00:12:38.520 and

00:12:39.120 perhaps

00:12:39.540 we

00:12:39.880 can

00:12:40.060 bend

00:12:40.340 more

00:12:40.680 of

00:12:40.820 it

00:12:40.940 here

00:12:41.260 there's

00:12:42.000 a lot

00:12:42.300 we've

00:12:42.780 already

00:12:43.260 said

00:12:43.540 about

00:12:43.740 this

00:12:43.960 but

00:12:44.140 I

00:12:44.360 think

00:12:44.580 we

00:12:44.700 have

00:12:44.840 to

00:12:44.940 assume

00:12:45.240 that

00:12:45.560 many

00:12:46.280 people

00:12:46.460 in

00:12:46.560 the

00:12:46.580 audience

00:12:46.880 have

00:12:47.060 not

00:12:47.360 heard

00:12:47.740 the

00:12:48.480 many

00:12:48.880 hours

00:12:49.320 you

00:12:49.600 and

00:12:49.720 I

00:12:49.880 have

00:12:50.100 gone

00:12:50.660 round

00:12:50.920 and

00:12:51.080 round

00:12:51.320 on

00:12:51.780 these

00:12:51.940 issues

00:12:52.200 already

00:12:52.540 so

00:12:52.860 at

00:12:53.400 the

00:12:53.540 top

00:12:53.800 here

00:12:54.080 can

00:12:55.060 you

00:12:55.200 define

00:12:55.840 a few

00:12:56.500 terms

00:12:56.920 I

00:12:57.160 think

00:12:57.320 you

00:12:57.460 should

00:12:57.600 define

00:12:58.200 effective

00:12:59.540 altruism

00:13:00.180 certainly

00:13:01.300 what you

00:13:01.720 mean

00:13:02.080 or you

00:13:02.460 think

00:13:02.700 we

00:13:03.140 should

00:13:03.360 mean

00:13:03.700 by

00:13:04.300 that

00:13:04.520 phrase

00:13:04.960 and

00:13:05.580 also

00:13:06.680 long

00:13:07.160 termism

00:13:07.880 and

00:13:08.420 existential

00:13:08.940 risk

00:13:09.540 because

00:13:09.900 those

00:13:10.080 will be

00:13:10.360 coming

00:13:10.600 up a

00:13:10.880 lot

00:13:11.020 here

00:13:11.220 sure

00:13:11.880 so

00:13:12.860 effective

00:13:13.340 altruism

00:13:13.840 is

00:13:14.760 a

00:13:15.240 philosophy

00:13:15.580 and

00:13:15.860 a

00:13:15.960 community

00:13:16.320 that's

00:13:17.460 about

00:13:17.700 ask

00:13:18.200 the

00:13:18.360 question

00:13:18.760 how

00:13:19.420 can

00:13:19.600 we

00:13:19.700 do

00:13:19.820 as

00:13:19.940 much

00:13:20.100 good

00:13:20.260 as

00:13:20.400 possible

00:13:20.780 with

00:13:21.620 our

00:13:22.040 time

00:13:22.400 and

00:13:22.600 with

00:13:22.740 our

00:13:22.860 money

00:13:23.080 and

00:13:23.720 then

00:13:23.880 taking

00:13:24.160 action

00:13:24.520 to

00:13:24.880 put

00:13:25.580 the

00:13:25.740 results

00:13:26.100 of

00:13:26.260 that

00:13:26.440 or

00:13:26.860 answers

00:13:27.100 to

00:13:27.280 that

00:13:27.420 question

00:13:27.780 into

00:13:28.040 practice

00:13:28.480 to

00:13:28.760 try

00:13:28.940 to

00:13:29.080 make

00:13:29.240 the

00:13:29.380 world

00:13:29.560 better

00:13:29.900 long

00:13:31.360 termism

00:13:31.820 is

00:13:32.480 a

00:13:32.960 philosophical

00:13:33.400 perspective

00:13:33.940 that

00:13:34.940 says

00:13:35.460 at

00:13:36.820 least

00:13:37.020 one

00:13:37.300 of

00:13:37.420 the

00:13:37.540 key

00:13:37.720 priorities

00:13:38.140 of

00:13:38.380 our

00:13:38.500 time

00:13:38.820 is

00:13:39.580 to

00:13:39.780 make

00:13:40.100 the

00:13:40.660 long

00:13:40.860 term

00:13:41.080 future

00:13:41.500 of

00:13:41.660 humanity

00:13:41.960 go

00:13:42.200 well

00:13:42.460 that

00:13:43.360 means

00:13:43.580 just

00:13:43.780 taking

00:13:44.080 seriously

00:13:44.640 just

00:13:45.080 the

00:13:45.440 sheer

00:13:45.640 scale

00:13:46.000 of

00:13:46.180 the

00:13:46.300 future

00:13:46.620 how

00:13:47.240 high

00:13:47.480 the

00:13:47.640 stakes

00:13:47.900 could

00:13:48.100 be

00:13:48.260 in

00:13:48.400 shaping

00:13:48.660 it

00:13:48.920 the

00:13:49.760 fact

00:13:50.000 that

00:13:50.200 there

00:13:50.360 really

00:13:50.580 might

00:13:50.820 be

00:13:51.160 events

00:13:51.820 that

00:13:51.980 occur

00:13:52.280 in

00:13:52.460 our

00:13:52.620 lifetimes

00:13:53.220 that

00:13:53.880 could

00:13:54.040 have

00:13:54.280 an

00:13:54.400 enormous

00:13:54.840 impact

00:13:55.500 for

00:13:56.080 good

00:13:56.260 or

00:13:56.460 ill

00:13:56.720 in

00:13:57.280 our

00:13:57.420 own

00:13:57.600 lifetimes

00:13:58.160 and

00:13:58.920 taking

00:13:59.120 seriously

00:13:59.500 that

00:13:59.720 we

00:13:59.900 can

00:14:00.060 help

00:14:00.380 steer

00:14:00.940 those

00:14:02.360 events

00:14:02.780 in a

00:14:03.080 more

00:14:03.200 positive

00:14:03.540 direction

00:14:04.060 helping

00:14:04.780 set

00:14:05.120 humanity

00:14:05.820 on a

00:14:06.100 better

00:14:06.240 path

00:14:06.660 to

00:14:07.180 improve

00:14:08.240 the

00:14:08.360 lives

00:14:08.540 of

00:14:08.640 our

00:14:08.740 grandkids

00:14:09.140 and

00:14:09.280 their

00:14:09.420 grandkids

00:14:09.860 and

00:14:10.000 their

00:14:10.160 grandkids

00:14:10.620 and

00:14:10.880 so

00:14:11.060 on

00:14:11.260 then

00:14:11.880 the

00:14:12.020 final

00:14:12.260 term

00:14:12.560 existential

00:14:13.060 risks

00:14:13.540 are

00:14:14.620 a

00:14:15.140 category

00:14:15.540 of

00:14:15.780 issues

00:14:16.180 that

00:14:17.040 I

00:14:17.820 and

00:14:17.960 others

00:14:18.260 have

00:14:18.600 increasingly

00:14:20.060 focused

00:14:20.580 on

00:14:20.820 or

00:14:20.960 started

00:14:21.340 thinking

00:14:22.080 and

00:14:22.280 worrying

00:14:22.500 about

00:14:22.920 and

00:14:23.800 these

00:14:24.040 are

00:14:24.180 risks

00:14:24.520 that

00:14:24.940 could

00:14:25.580 be

00:14:25.760 enormously

00:14:26.220 impactful

00:14:26.820 not

00:14:27.400 just

00:14:27.720 in

00:14:27.860 the

00:14:27.960 present

00:14:28.280 but

00:14:29.080 in

00:14:29.620 fact

00:14:29.840 for

00:14:29.980 the

00:14:30.080 whole

00:14:30.240 future

00:14:30.640 so

00:14:31.880 some

00:14:32.760 of

00:14:32.880 these

00:14:33.020 risks

00:14:33.400 are

00:14:33.660 risks

00:14:33.940 that

00:14:34.180 threaten

00:14:34.540 extinction

00:14:35.260 such

00:14:36.140 as

00:14:36.540 the

00:14:37.080 use

00:14:37.400 of

00:14:37.960 next

00:14:38.840 gender

00:14:39.100 generation

00:14:39.340 of

00:14:39.540 bioweapons

00:14:40.180 in

00:14:40.940 World War

00:14:41.520 Three

00:14:41.760 with

00:14:42.720 viruses

00:14:43.340 of

00:14:43.660 unprecedented

00:14:44.200 lethality

00:14:44.840 and

00:14:44.980 infectiousness

00:14:46.280 that could 0.68

00:14:47.040 really result

00:14:47.620 in the

00:14:48.200 collapse

00:14:48.480 of

00:14:48.640 civilization

00:14:49.160 or

00:14:49.680 the

00:14:50.380 extinction

00:14:50.820 of

00:14:51.180 everyone

00:14:51.900 alive

00:14:52.180 today

00:14:52.460 in

00:14:52.660 the

00:14:52.760 worst

00:14:52.960 case

00:14:53.300 or

00:14:54.620 very

00:14:55.000 rapid

00:14:55.300 advances

00:14:55.740 in

00:14:56.020 artificial

00:14:56.380 intelligence

00:14:57.080 where

00:14:57.960 that

00:14:58.820 could

00:14:59.140 result

00:14:59.620 in

00:14:59.940 as

00:15:00.160 you've

00:15:00.480 argued

00:15:00.920 the

00:15:01.460 AIs 0.98

00:15:01.840 being

00:15:02.180 just

00:15:02.440 far

00:15:02.760 more

00:15:02.940 capable

00:15:03.260 than

00:15:03.500 human

00:15:03.760 beings

00:15:04.220 such

00:15:05.000 that

00:15:05.340 it

00:15:06.020 merely

00:15:06.320 the

00:15:06.740 AI

00:15:07.220 systems

00:15:07.660 merely

00:15:08.000 see

00:15:08.280 humans

00:15:08.600 as

00:15:09.100 an obstacle

00:15:09.620 to

00:15:09.840 their

00:15:10.000 goals

00:15:10.380 and

00:15:11.460 we

00:15:12.100 humans

00:15:13.940 are

00:15:14.140 disempowered

00:15:14.680 in light

00:15:15.040 of that

00:15:15.460 or

00:15:16.540 in fact

00:15:17.420 again

00:15:18.360 just

00:15:19.100 made

00:15:19.680 extinct

00:15:20.000 or

00:15:20.160 eliminated

00:15:20.600 by such

00:15:21.380 systems

00:15:21.840 or

00:15:23.260 existential

00:15:24.340 risks

00:15:24.920 can

00:15:25.300 lead

00:15:25.900 to

00:15:26.260 permanent

00:15:27.700 loss

00:15:29.260 of value

00:15:29.780 or future

00:15:30.240 value

00:15:30.700 not just

00:15:32.220 via

00:15:32.560 extinction

00:15:33.080 so a

00:15:33.720 perpetual

00:15:34.100 dystopia

00:15:34.840 that was

00:15:35.940 perhaps

00:15:36.940 perhaps

00:15:36.960 it's

00:15:37.300 a

00:15:37.480 little

00:15:37.620 better

00:15:37.940 than

00:15:38.240 extinction

00:15:38.960 but not

00:15:39.360 much

00:15:39.620 better

00:15:39.920 with

00:15:40.640 a

00:15:40.780 lock

00:15:41.020 in

00:15:41.220 of

00:15:41.460 fascist

00:15:42.040 values

00:15:42.500 that

00:15:43.080 would

00:15:43.220 count

00:15:43.420 as

00:15:43.540 an

00:15:43.660 existential

00:15:44.100 catastrophe

00:15:44.660 as

00:15:44.980 well

00:15:45.160 and

00:15:46.580 increasingly

00:15:47.280 I've

00:15:47.780 been

00:15:47.900 getting

00:15:48.100 to know

00:15:48.560 the

00:15:48.960 leading

00:15:49.860 scientists

00:15:50.440 who think

00:15:50.980 that

00:15:51.220 the

00:15:51.720 scale

00:15:52.060 of

00:15:52.240 such

00:15:52.440 existential

00:15:52.960 catastrophe

00:15:53.500 it's

00:15:53.760 actually

00:15:54.000 not

00:15:54.220 small

00:15:54.540 it's

00:15:55.360 not

00:15:55.600 like

00:15:55.920 in

00:15:56.660 any

00:15:56.920 way

00:15:57.080 like

00:15:57.320 this

00:15:57.620 one

00:15:58.200 in a

00:15:58.400 million

00:15:58.680 chance

00:15:59.520 of an

00:15:59.740 asteroid

00:16:00.120 spike 0.93

00:16:00.540 in the

00:16:00.840 next

00:16:01.060 century

00:16:01.380 but

00:16:02.220 much

00:16:02.500 more

00:16:02.800 like

00:16:03.060 the

00:16:03.200 risk

00:16:03.420 of

00:16:03.540 dying

00:16:03.740 in

00:16:03.880 a

00:16:03.980 car

00:16:04.160 crash

00:16:04.460 in

00:16:04.600 one's

00:16:04.860 lifetime

00:16:05.280 where

00:16:06.140 these

00:16:06.540 risks

00:16:06.940 are

00:16:07.420 certainly

00:16:08.280 in

00:16:08.640 the

00:16:08.780 multiple

00:16:09.040 percentage

00:16:09.500 points

00:16:09.940 maybe

00:16:10.240 even

00:16:10.500 tens

00:16:10.760 of

00:16:10.880 percentage

00:16:11.200 points

00:16:11.640 just

00:16:12.280 in

00:16:12.440 our

00:16:12.580 lifetime

00:16:12.920 alone

00:16:13.280 so

00:16:15.460 in

00:16:16.180 the

00:16:16.320 definition

00:16:16.780 of

00:16:17.080 effective

00:16:17.480 altruism

00:16:18.260 I think

00:16:19.020 one

00:16:19.300 could

00:16:19.500 be

00:16:19.980 forgiven

00:16:21.120 for

00:16:21.860 wondering

00:16:22.440 what

00:16:23.260 is

00:16:23.480 novel

00:16:23.980 about

00:16:24.920 simply

00:16:25.880 wanting

00:16:26.400 to do

00:16:26.860 as

00:16:27.040 much

00:16:27.260 good

00:16:27.560 as

00:16:27.840 one

00:16:28.240 can

00:16:28.660 right

00:16:29.220 how

00:16:29.560 is

00:16:30.080 that

00:16:30.420 a

00:16:30.980 new

00:16:31.200 contribution

00:16:31.860 to

00:16:32.400 the

00:16:32.520 way

00:16:32.620 we

00:16:32.780 think

00:16:33.160 about

00:16:33.520 doing

00:16:33.980 good

00:16:34.200 in

00:16:34.300 the

00:16:34.400 world

00:16:34.640 hasn't

00:16:35.160 everyone

00:16:35.560 who

00:16:35.980 has

00:16:36.240 attempted

00:16:36.520 to

00:16:36.720 do

00:16:36.840 good

00:16:37.180 wanted

00:16:38.100 to

00:16:38.300 do

00:16:38.500 as

00:16:38.720 much

00:16:38.900 good

00:16:39.120 as

00:16:39.240 they

00:16:39.380 could

00:16:39.560 get

00:16:40.060 their

00:16:40.200 hands

00:16:40.440 around

00:16:40.700 what

00:16:41.340 do

00:16:41.460 you

00:16:41.580 view

00:16:41.840 as

00:16:42.040 being

00:16:42.320 novel

00:16:42.860 in

00:16:43.420 this

00:16:43.700 movement

00:16:44.020 around

00:16:44.300 that

00:16:44.520 so

00:16:45.600 I

00:16:46.580 am

00:16:47.120 certainly

00:16:47.420 not

00:16:47.620 claiming

00:16:47.940 that

00:16:48.160 effective

00:16:48.500 altruism

00:16:48.960 is

00:16:49.160 some

00:16:49.380 radically

00:16:49.720 new

00:16:50.000 idea

00:16:50.340 I

00:16:50.820 think

00:16:51.020 you

00:16:51.160 can

00:16:51.280 see

00:16:51.640 its

00:16:52.600 intellectual

00:16:53.240 roots

00:16:53.960 going

00:16:54.280 back

00:16:54.620 decades

00:16:55.160 I

00:16:55.440 actually

00:16:55.680 argue

00:17:01.200 sequentialist

00:17:01.820 model

00:17:02.080 philosophers

00:17:02.540 the

00:17:02.860 Mohists 1.00

00:17:03.280 but

00:17:04.700 I

00:17:05.480 actually

00:17:05.840 think

00:17:06.200 that

00:17:06.620 this

00:17:07.680 mindset

00:17:08.160 of

00:17:08.460 trying

00:17:08.700 to

00:17:08.860 do

00:17:09.000 as

00:17:09.140 much

00:17:09.320 good

00:17:09.500 as

00:17:09.640 possible

00:17:10.020 is

00:17:10.860 at

00:17:11.140 least

00:17:11.380 somewhat

00:17:12.520 unusual

00:17:12.960 where

00:17:14.000 in

00:17:14.480 general

00:17:14.920 when

00:17:15.340 people

00:17:15.900 try

00:17:16.120 to

00:17:16.260 do

00:17:16.420 good

00:17:16.700 and

00:17:16.900 this

00:17:17.040 was

00:17:17.180 certainly

00:17:17.460 true

00:17:17.700 for

00:17:17.880 me

00:17:18.060 before

00:17:18.320 I

00:17:18.540 started

00:17:18.760 thinking

00:17:19.060 about

00:17:19.360 this

00:17:19.700 they

00:17:20.820 are

00:17:22.180 like

00:17:22.700 looking

00:17:23.040 at

00:17:23.240 what

00:17:23.640 causes

00:17:24.100 have

00:17:24.260 been

00:17:24.380 made

00:17:24.600 salient

00:17:25.000 to

00:17:25.180 them

00:17:25.380 where

00:17:25.860 in

00:17:26.040 my

00:17:26.260 case

00:17:26.560 that

00:17:26.780 was

00:17:27.140 extreme

00:17:27.900 poverty

00:17:28.300 I

00:17:29.120 remember

00:17:29.420 as a

00:17:29.720 teenager

00:17:30.060 reading

00:17:30.380 about

00:17:30.640 how

00:17:30.860 many

00:17:31.140 people

00:17:31.580 died

00:17:31.840 of

00:17:31.980 AIDS

00:17:32.220 each

00:17:32.460 year

00:17:32.700 and

00:17:33.020 just

00:17:33.180 thinking

00:17:33.500 oh my

00:17:33.880 god

00:17:34.100 this

00:17:34.300 is

00:17:34.440 an

00:17:34.580 atrocity

00:17:35.160 how

00:17:35.820 can

00:17:36.020 we

00:17:36.120 not

00:17:36.260 be

00:17:36.400 taking

00:17:36.640 more

00:17:36.860 action

00:17:37.080 on

00:17:37.240 this

00:17:37.540 but

00:17:38.520 what

00:17:38.700 I

00:17:38.840 wasn't

00:17:39.160 doing

00:17:39.440 at

00:17:39.560 the

00:17:39.680 time

00:17:39.980 was

00:17:40.240 sitting

00:17:41.000 back

00:17:41.320 kind

00:17:41.580 of

00:17:41.660 taking

00:17:42.000 a

00:17:42.700 step

00:17:42.860 back

00:17:43.160 and

00:17:43.320 thinking

00:17:43.660 of

00:17:44.400 all

00:17:44.800 the

00:17:45.000 things

00:17:45.380 all

00:17:45.720 the

00:17:45.880 many

00:17:46.200 many

00:17:46.480 problems

00:17:46.840 in

00:17:47.080 the

00:17:47.180 world

00:17:47.480 what

00:17:48.460 are

00:17:48.580 the

00:17:48.700 things

00:17:49.180 what's

00:17:49.580 the

00:17:49.700 thing

00:17:49.860 I

00:17:50.140 should

00:17:50.340 be

00:17:50.460 most

00:17:50.700 focusing

00:17:51.060 on

00:17:51.320 if

00:17:51.920 I

00:17:52.060 want

00:17:52.240 to

00:17:52.360 have

00:17:52.620 the

00:17:52.940 biggest

00:17:53.140 impact

00:17:53.560 I

00:17:53.740 can

00:17:54.000 what's

00:17:54.720 the

00:17:54.820 best

00:17:55.100 evidence

00:17:55.680 saying

00:17:57.960 about

00:17:58.200 this

00:17:58.460 and

00:18:00.760 really

00:18:01.080 thinking

00:18:01.420 that

00:18:01.640 through

00:18:01.920 and

00:18:02.940 so

00:18:03.300 I

00:18:03.620 actually

00:18:03.960 think

00:18:04.200 that

00:18:04.400 mode

00:18:04.620 of

00:18:04.740 reasoning

00:18:05.000 is

00:18:05.200 somewhat

00:18:05.480 unusual

00:18:05.880 and

00:18:06.200 that's

00:18:06.440 what's

00:18:06.720 distinctive

00:18:07.180 about

00:18:07.940 effective

00:18:08.280 autism

00:18:08.640 yeah

00:18:09.540 so let's

00:18:09.860 deal

00:18:10.020 with

00:18:10.160 some

00:18:10.320 of

00:18:10.420 this

00:18:10.640 pushback

00:18:11.520 before

00:18:12.140 moving

00:18:12.920 on

00:18:13.180 there

00:18:13.300 was

00:18:13.440 a

00:18:13.680 I'm

00:18:14.620 sure

00:18:14.760 there's

00:18:14.940 been

00:18:15.140 much

00:18:15.520 more

00:18:15.700 that

00:18:15.840 I

00:18:15.940 haven't

00:18:16.160 noticed

00:18:16.480 but

00:18:16.700 in

00:18:16.800 the

00:18:16.900 last

00:18:17.080 few

00:18:17.240 days

00:18:17.460 I

00:18:17.640 noticed

00:18:18.160 a

00:18:19.000 Wall

00:18:19.300 Street

00:18:19.500 Journal

00:18:19.800 article

00:18:20.220 that

00:18:21.520 really

00:18:22.720 did not

00:18:23.040 have much

00:18:23.480 substance

00:18:24.160 to it

00:18:24.520 it

00:18:24.700 seemed

00:18:24.920 to have

00:18:25.100 been

00:18:25.200 written

00:18:25.340 by

00:18:25.520 someone

00:18:25.740 who

00:18:25.920 just

00:18:26.220 doesn't

00:18:26.700 like

00:18:26.900 paying

00:18:27.160 taxes

00:18:27.620 and

00:18:28.340 didn't

00:18:28.980 seem

00:18:29.160 to like

00:18:29.520 Sam

00:18:29.820 Bankman

00:18:30.200 Freed's

00:18:30.740 politics

00:18:31.420 I

00:18:32.200 didn't

00:18:32.380 really

00:18:32.580 detect

00:18:33.120 any

00:18:33.780 deep

00:18:34.660 arguments

00:18:35.080 against

00:18:35.620 effective

00:18:36.620 altruism

00:18:37.120 there

00:18:37.420 I

00:18:37.660 guess

00:18:37.820 his

00:18:37.980 one

00:18:38.420 salient

00:18:38.780 point

00:18:39.160 was

00:18:39.420 that

00:18:39.700 creating

00:18:40.920 economic

00:18:41.620 value

00:18:42.360 you know

00:18:43.160 i.e.

00:18:43.480 doing

00:18:43.760 business

00:18:44.660 is

00:18:46.160 way to

00:18:46.500 help

00:18:46.700 people

00:18:47.040 you know

00:18:47.940 at

00:18:48.140 scale

00:18:48.520 and

00:18:48.780 reduce

00:18:49.700 unnecessary

00:18:50.440 suffering

00:18:50.940 and

00:18:51.540 i guess

00:18:51.740 i would

00:18:52.000 i think

00:18:52.720 we could

00:18:53.200 easily

00:18:53.680 concede

00:18:54.120 that

00:18:54.340 insofar

00:18:54.880 as

00:18:55.080 that's

00:18:55.380 true

00:18:55.820 you know

00:18:57.200 and

00:18:57.320 wherever

00:18:57.780 it

00:18:58.040 happens

00:18:58.360 to be

00:18:58.680 true

00:18:59.000 it

00:18:59.620 would

00:18:59.740 be

00:18:59.880 very

00:19:00.180 easy

00:19:00.540 for us

00:19:00.900 to

00:19:01.020 say

00:19:01.220 okay

00:19:01.460 well

00:19:01.640 then

00:19:01.900 sure

00:19:02.660 let

00:19:02.940 business

00:19:03.300 solve

00:19:03.640 our

00:19:03.820 problems

00:19:04.260 and

00:19:04.960 so

00:19:05.120 there's

00:19:05.460 you know

00:19:06.000 and i

00:19:06.460 don't

00:19:06.580 think

00:19:06.760 you

00:19:06.880 would

00:19:07.040 resist

00:19:07.400 that

00:19:07.660 conclusion

00:19:08.140 wherever

00:19:08.820 it's

00:19:09.280 true

00:19:09.600 i mean

00:19:09.800 i

00:19:09.880 think

00:19:10.020 one

00:19:10.740 could

00:19:10.920 certainly

00:19:11.140 argue

00:19:11.480 that

00:19:11.780 someone

00:19:12.640 like

00:19:12.860 elon

00:19:13.240 musk

00:19:13.740 by

00:19:14.180 you know

00:19:14.800 you know

00:19:15.060 building

00:19:15.420 desirable

00:19:16.020 electric

00:19:16.420 cars

00:19:16.840 has

00:19:17.280 done

00:19:17.780 if

00:19:18.560 not

00:19:18.760 more

00:19:19.080 good

00:19:19.520 a

00:19:20.080 different

00:19:20.400 species

00:19:20.860 of

00:19:21.140 good

00:19:21.500 than

00:19:22.480 many

00:19:23.180 forms

00:19:24.140 of

00:19:24.300 environmental

00:19:24.820 activism

00:19:25.400 have

00:19:26.100 to

00:19:26.380 move

00:19:27.120 us

00:19:27.420 away

00:19:28.180 from

00:19:28.460 a

00:19:28.720 climate

00:19:29.380 change

00:19:29.720 catastrophe

00:19:30.260 so

00:19:31.340 you know

00:19:31.720 if

00:19:31.860 that's

00:19:32.320 true

00:19:32.640 let's

00:19:33.480 bracket

00:19:33.900 that

00:19:34.220 and

00:19:34.640 it's

00:19:35.040 hard

00:19:35.200 to know

00:19:35.440 what

00:19:35.720 exactly

00:19:36.080 is

00:19:36.220 true

00:19:36.380 there

00:19:36.560 but

00:19:36.740 i

00:19:36.940 certainly

00:19:37.160 have

00:19:37.300 an

00:19:37.400 intuition

00:19:37.780 that

00:19:38.200 there's

00:19:38.980 a

00:19:39.080 place

00:19:39.480 for

00:19:39.940 business

00:19:41.040 and

00:19:41.500 even

00:19:41.680 a

00:19:41.960 majority

00:19:42.960 place

00:19:43.500 for

00:19:43.680 business

00:19:44.200 to

00:19:45.240 affect

00:19:46.440 our

00:19:46.880 climate

00:19:47.280 outcome

00:19:47.840 and that

00:19:48.700 it might

00:19:49.020 be

00:19:49.240 greater

00:19:49.680 than

00:19:50.080 charity

00:19:50.800 he

00:19:51.540 seemed

00:19:51.760 to

00:19:51.880 think

00:19:52.020 that

00:19:52.180 was

00:19:52.320 a

00:19:52.720 real

00:19:53.060 you know

00:19:53.600 some

00:19:53.780 kind

00:19:53.940 of

00:19:54.140 coup

00:19:54.340 de

00:19:54.460 gras

00:19:54.680 against

00:19:55.240 effective

00:19:56.000 altruism

00:19:56.520 and

00:19:56.680 even

00:19:56.900 philanthropy

00:19:57.580 in

00:19:58.100 general

00:19:58.460 but

00:19:59.320 i

00:19:59.920 think

00:20:00.060 that

00:20:00.280 blow 0.77

00:20:00.860 just

00:20:01.120 passes

00:20:01.480 right

00:20:01.880 by

00:20:02.120 us

00:20:02.320 doesn't

00:20:02.520 it

00:20:02.760 yeah

00:20:03.640 so

00:20:04.040 the

00:20:04.860 thing

00:20:05.060 that

00:20:05.200 i'll

00:20:05.360 say

00:20:05.660 that's

00:20:06.280 the

00:20:06.700 grain

00:20:07.640 of

00:20:07.800 truth

00:20:08.060 and

00:20:08.220 that

00:20:08.360 criticism

00:20:08.760 is

00:20:09.440 that

00:20:09.760 under

00:20:10.200 some

00:20:10.580 in

00:20:11.500 some

00:20:11.760 circumstances

00:20:12.400 markets

00:20:13.660 can be

00:20:14.480 extremely

00:20:15.000 good

00:20:15.300 ways

00:20:15.740 of

00:20:16.160 allocating

00:20:16.880 resources

00:20:17.860 so

00:20:18.920 take

00:20:20.060 the

00:20:20.220 problem

00:20:20.500 of

00:20:21.120 people

00:20:21.500 having

00:20:21.860 access

00:20:22.280 to

00:20:22.860 the

00:20:23.540 internet

00:20:23.920 and

00:20:24.540 to

00:20:24.980 computing

00:20:25.660 technology

00:20:26.380 in the

00:20:26.860 United

00:20:27.140 States

00:20:27.700 at least

00:20:28.500 for

00:20:28.720 people

00:20:28.940 who

00:20:29.080 are

00:20:29.200 middle

00:20:29.360 class

00:20:29.700 or

00:20:29.860 above

00:20:30.220 then

00:20:31.140 you

00:20:32.080 know

00:20:32.200 businesses

00:20:32.640 are

00:20:33.000 dealing

00:20:33.400 with

00:20:33.580 that

00:20:33.760 like

00:20:34.000 at

00:20:34.120 least

00:20:34.280 relatively

00:20:34.720 well

00:20:35.040 there's

00:20:35.280 great

00:20:35.480 incentives

00:20:35.880 to

00:20:36.760 give

00:20:37.580 this

00:20:37.740 product

00:20:38.060 that

00:20:38.220 are

00:20:38.320 benefiting

00:20:38.660 people

00:20:39.020 people

00:20:39.300 are

00:20:39.420 willing

00:20:39.560 to

00:20:39.700 pay

00:20:39.840 for

00:20:40.020 it

00:20:40.260 and

00:20:40.820 there

00:20:40.940 aren't

00:20:41.160 major

00:20:41.580 externalities

00:20:42.400 however

00:20:43.700 as has

00:20:44.100 been

00:20:44.220 well

00:20:44.460 known

00:20:44.700 in

00:20:44.880 economics

00:20:45.280 for

00:20:45.800 I

00:20:46.520 think

00:20:46.660 100

00:20:46.900 years

00:20:47.260 now

00:20:47.560 there

00:20:48.200 are

00:20:48.280 very

00:20:48.480 many

00:20:48.720 cases

00:20:49.060 where

00:20:49.280 markets

00:20:49.780 don't

00:20:50.420 produce

00:20:50.800 the

00:20:51.280 ideal

00:20:51.680 social

00:20:52.240 outcome

00:20:52.620 which

00:20:57.700 absolute

00:20:59.660 paradigm

00:21:00.120 of this

00:21:00.560 example

00:21:00.920 where

00:21:02.320 if

00:21:02.900 someone

00:21:03.220 mines

00:21:03.820 coal

00:21:04.120 and

00:21:04.300 burns

00:21:04.540 it

00:21:04.780 that

00:21:05.440 can

00:21:05.600 be

00:21:05.720 good

00:21:05.860 for

00:21:06.000 them

00:21:06.180 because

00:21:06.760 they're

00:21:06.860 creating

00:21:07.180 energy

00:21:07.540 but

00:21:08.300 it

00:21:08.540 has

00:21:08.740 this

00:21:08.940 negative

00:21:09.280 effect

00:21:09.680 on

00:21:10.080 third

00:21:10.380 parties

00:21:10.800 that

00:21:11.420 were

00:21:11.560 not

00:21:11.880 privy

00:21:12.600 to

00:21:12.760 that

00:21:12.900 decision

00:21:13.280 they

00:21:14.040 had

00:21:14.220 no

00:21:14.380 influence

00:21:14.780 over

00:21:15.000 it

00:21:15.180 because

00:21:15.680 it

00:21:15.840 warms

00:21:16.040 the

00:21:16.160 climate

00:21:16.400 and

00:21:16.680 it

00:21:16.780 makes

00:21:16.980 those

00:21:17.200 third

00:21:17.440 parties

00:21:17.740 worse

00:21:18.280 off

00:21:18.540 and

00:21:19.340 so

00:21:19.500 the

00:21:19.660 standard

00:21:19.920 solution

00:21:20.340 there

00:21:20.640 and

00:21:21.580 this

00:21:21.980 is

00:21:22.140 endorsed

00:21:22.620 by

00:21:23.100 economists

00:21:24.660 on

00:21:25.120 the

00:21:25.240 right

00:21:25.460 as

00:21:25.620 well

00:21:25.760 as

00:21:25.880 the

00:21:26.000 left

00:21:26.340 it's

00:21:26.720 just

00:21:26.860 uncontroversial

00:21:27.660 is that

00:21:28.400 you want

00:21:28.700 some amount

00:21:29.140 of government

00:21:29.540 involvement

00:21:30.000 there

00:21:30.360 at least

00:21:31.260 in the

00:21:31.900 form of

00:21:32.300 taxation

00:21:32.860 so

00:21:33.540 you know

00:21:33.860 putting a

00:21:34.220 tax on

00:21:34.620 carbon

00:21:34.900 there's

00:21:35.280 other

00:21:35.420 things

00:21:35.620 you can

00:21:35.820 do

00:21:35.960 as

00:21:36.100 well

00:21:36.260 but

00:21:36.480 that

00:21:36.760 would

00:21:36.840 be

00:21:36.940 one

00:21:37.100 way

00:21:37.340 in

00:21:38.280 order

00:21:38.520 to

00:21:38.780 guide

00:21:39.260 market

00:21:39.940 behavior

00:21:40.360 to

00:21:40.660 better

00:21:41.240 outcomes

00:21:42.240 however

00:21:42.960 I would

00:21:43.340 go

00:21:43.480 further

00:21:43.780 than

00:21:44.000 this

00:21:44.220 as

00:21:44.400 well

00:21:44.620 and

00:21:44.920 say

00:21:45.320 you know

00:21:46.380 there

00:21:46.640 are

00:21:46.800 not

00:21:47.000 only

00:21:47.320 cases

00:21:47.720 of

00:21:48.020 market

00:21:48.320 failure

00:21:48.740 there

00:21:49.240 are

00:21:49.360 also

00:21:49.580 cases

00:21:55.460 living

00:21:55.760 in

00:21:56.380 a

00:21:57.160 country

00:21:57.440 with

00:21:57.680 poor

00:21:57.900 political

00:21:58.820 institutions

00:21:59.560 perhaps

00:22:00.120 even

00:22:00.340 a

00:22:00.460 dictatorship

00:22:00.860 they

00:22:02.100 do

00:22:02.360 not

00:22:02.560 have

00:22:02.900 democratic

00:22:03.500 say

00:22:03.920 over

00:22:04.380 the

00:22:04.540 policies

00:22:05.080 that

00:22:05.640 rich

00:22:05.920 countries

00:22:06.300 like

00:22:06.540 the

00:22:06.700 UK

00:22:06.940 and

00:22:07.200 the

00:22:07.300 US

00:22:07.580 are

00:22:07.740 enacting

00:22:08.180 and

00:22:08.760 so

00:22:08.900 they

00:22:09.140 will

00:22:09.340 not

00:22:09.560 be

00:22:09.780 given

00:22:10.020 adequate

00:22:10.440 representation

00:22:11.200 neither

00:22:12.220 in

00:22:12.440 the

00:22:12.580 market

00:22:12.880 nor

00:22:13.880 in

00:22:14.360 political

00:22:14.960 decision

00:22:15.360 making

00:22:15.680 or

00:22:16.500 if

00:22:16.640 we

00:22:16.720 look

00:22:16.860 at

00:22:16.960 non-human

00:22:17.340 animals

00:22:17.720 they

00:22:18.060 have

00:22:18.240 no

00:22:18.440 say

00:22:18.640 at

00:22:18.800 all

00:22:19.040 or

00:22:19.880 if

00:22:20.000 we

00:22:20.080 look

00:22:20.220 at

00:22:20.320 future

00:22:20.540 people

00:22:20.880 those

00:22:21.380 who

00:22:21.580 will

00:22:25.460 they

00:22:26.140 have

00:22:26.820 no

00:22:27.120 say

00:22:27.440 over

00:22:27.800 they

00:22:28.380 have

00:22:28.540 no

00:22:28.700 participation

00:22:29.080 in

00:22:29.400 the

00:22:29.520 market

00:22:29.780 so

00:22:30.180 they

00:22:30.260 have

00:22:30.380 no

00:22:30.500 influence

00:22:30.860 there

00:22:31.160 they

00:22:31.780 have

00:22:31.980 no

00:22:32.140 say

00:22:32.340 in

00:22:32.540 political

00:22:33.360 decision

00:22:33.740 making

00:22:34.000 either

00:22:34.340 and so

00:22:35.080 it's

00:22:35.400 no

00:22:35.560 surprise

00:22:35.960 I

00:22:36.160 think

00:22:36.360 that

00:22:36.540 their

00:22:36.780 interests

00:22:37.280 are

00:22:37.860 systematically

00:22:38.320 neglected

00:22:38.780 and we

00:22:39.460 have

00:22:39.600 no

00:22:39.800 guarantee

00:22:40.160 at all

00:22:40.620 that

00:22:40.820 business

00:22:41.800 as usual

00:22:42.520 for the

00:22:42.900 world

00:22:43.240 would

00:22:43.960 lead to

00:22:44.400 the best

00:22:44.720 outcomes

00:22:45.080 possible

00:22:45.500 for

00:22:45.700 them

00:22:45.920 yeah

00:22:46.680 yeah

00:22:47.640 okay

00:22:48.400 so then

00:22:48.740 there was

00:22:49.140 this

00:22:49.460 article

00:22:50.180 I

00:22:50.380 noticed

00:22:50.800 in

00:22:51.860 this

00:22:52.200 online

00:22:52.780 journal

00:22:53.220 maybe

00:22:53.800 it's

00:22:54.000 also

00:22:54.180 a

00:22:54.360 print

00:22:54.600 journal

00:22:55.080 called

00:22:55.900 current

00:22:56.240 affairs

00:22:56.660 which

00:22:57.220 I

00:22:57.900 hesitate

00:22:58.380 to

00:22:58.620 mention

00:22:58.840 because

00:22:59.120 the

00:22:59.720 editor

00:23:00.180 over there

00:23:00.960 strikes me

00:23:01.500 as someone

00:23:01.840 who is

00:23:02.280 truly

00:23:03.280 mentally 0.83

00:23:03.780 unwell

00:23:04.580 given some

00:23:05.220 of the

00:23:05.400 insane

00:23:05.660 things

00:23:05.960 he's

00:23:06.140 written

00:23:06.320 about

00:23:06.560 me

00:23:06.880 and

00:23:07.200 the

00:23:07.620 length

00:23:07.920 at which

00:23:08.240 he's

00:23:08.480 written

00:23:09.020 them

00:23:09.220 but

00:23:09.820 this

00:23:10.380 article

00:23:10.800 not

00:23:11.680 written

00:23:11.900 by him

00:23:12.340 written

00:23:12.700 by somebody

00:23:13.060 else

00:23:13.380 raised

00:23:14.820 some

00:23:15.200 points

00:23:16.220 that I

00:23:16.480 think

00:23:16.700 are

00:23:16.860 valid

00:23:17.520 as well

00:23:18.340 as many

00:23:18.740 that

00:23:19.020 weren't

00:23:19.560 and

00:23:20.520 the

00:23:20.840 valid

00:23:21.120 ones

00:23:21.400 are around

00:23:21.780 the

00:23:21.980 issue

00:23:22.440 of

00:23:23.000 how

00:23:23.800 we

00:23:23.960 think

00:23:24.140 about

00:23:24.340 expected

00:23:24.860 value

00:23:25.520 and

00:23:26.720 kind

00:23:27.660 of

00:23:27.740 a

00:23:27.840 probability

00:23:28.320 calculus

00:23:28.960 over

00:23:29.600 various

00:23:30.540 possibilities

00:23:31.220 in the

00:23:31.880 future

00:23:32.220 and this

00:23:32.600 is really

00:23:33.080 integral

00:23:33.480 to

00:23:34.360 your

00:23:34.880 new

00:23:35.100 book

00:23:35.420 and how

00:23:35.700 we

00:23:35.860 think

00:23:36.080 about

00:23:36.440 safeguarding

00:23:37.320 the

00:23:37.440 future

00:23:37.740 so I

00:23:38.640 think

00:23:38.800 before we

00:23:40.840 dive into

00:23:41.400 your

00:23:41.680 thesis

00:23:42.360 proper

00:23:42.900 let's

00:23:43.980 talk

00:23:44.300 about

00:23:44.800 the

00:23:45.760 concept

00:23:46.540 of

00:23:47.380 prioritizing

00:23:49.000 to

00:23:49.260 whatever

00:23:49.540 degree

00:23:50.140 the

00:23:51.100 well-being

00:23:51.840 of

00:23:52.340 people

00:23:52.880 who

00:23:53.360 don't

00:23:54.380 yet

00:23:54.580 exist

00:23:55.140 when

00:23:55.880 people

00:23:56.100 say

00:23:56.320 well

00:23:56.540 we

00:23:56.980 should

00:23:57.540 prioritize

00:23:58.060 the

00:23:58.380 future

00:23:58.760 to

00:23:59.480 some

00:23:59.680 significant

00:24:00.060 degree

00:24:00.480 it's

00:24:01.140 very

00:24:01.300 easy

00:24:01.480 for them

00:24:01.760 to

00:24:01.980 do

00:24:02.300 this

00:24:02.540 by

00:24:02.980 reference

00:24:03.460 to

00:24:03.660 their

00:24:03.820 children

00:24:04.400 you know

00:24:05.300 young

00:24:05.840 people

00:24:06.300 who

00:24:06.600 currently

00:24:07.480 exist

00:24:08.140 and have

00:24:08.620 no

00:24:08.780 control

00:24:09.080 over

00:24:09.360 anything

00:24:09.700 that's

00:24:10.440 easy

00:24:10.600 to

00:24:10.740 see

00:24:10.880 but

00:24:11.040 when

00:24:11.180 you're

00:24:11.320 talking

00:24:11.600 about

00:24:12.080 the

00:24:13.120 hypothetical

00:24:13.840 billions

00:24:14.560 and

00:24:14.940 trillions

00:24:15.420 of

00:24:15.960 a

00:24:16.460 future

00:24:16.760 humanity

00:24:17.340 that

00:24:18.380 may

00:24:19.100 thrive

00:24:19.820 or

00:24:20.320 not

00:24:21.320 even

00:24:21.560 exist

00:24:22.140 depending

00:24:22.700 on

00:24:22.960 how

00:24:23.180 we

00:24:23.360 play

00:24:23.580 our

00:24:23.780 cards

00:24:24.140 at

00:24:24.280 this

00:24:24.440 moment

00:24:24.720 I

00:24:25.440 think

00:24:25.600 people's

00:24:26.020 moral

00:24:26.280 intuitions

00:24:26.800 begin

00:24:27.100 to

00:24:27.400 fall

00:24:28.060 apart

00:24:28.460 and

00:24:28.840 the

00:24:29.080 most

00:24:29.700 extreme

00:24:30.420 case

00:24:31.360 of

00:24:31.640 the

00:24:32.000 problem

00:24:32.380 here

00:24:32.660 is

00:24:32.880 if

00:24:33.620 you

00:24:33.740 try

00:24:34.120 to

00:24:34.600 run

00:24:35.840 any

00:24:36.040 kind

00:24:36.240 of

00:24:36.320 utility

00:24:36.680 function

00:24:37.280 based

00:24:38.020 on

00:24:38.220 a

00:24:38.400 straightforward

00:24:38.960 calculation

00:24:40.200 of

00:24:40.420 probabilities

00:24:41.060 if

00:24:41.360 you

00:24:41.460 say

00:24:41.700 well

00:24:42.060 if

00:24:42.660 I

00:24:42.780 could

00:24:42.920 just

00:24:43.120 reduce

00:24:43.760 the

00:24:44.320 risk

00:24:44.860 that

00:24:45.300 we

00:24:45.440 will

00:24:45.600 be

00:24:45.740 wiped

00:24:46.000 out

00:24:46.240 by

00:24:46.420 some

00:24:46.680 catastrophic

00:24:47.400 event

00:24:48.460 let's

00:24:48.820 say

00:24:49.000 a

00:24:49.260 global

00:24:49.800 pandemic

00:24:50.300 if

00:24:50.680 I

00:24:50.760 could

00:24:50.880 reduce

00:24:51.300 that

00:24:51.600 by

00:24:51.920 even

00:24:52.360 one

00:24:53.300 in

00:24:53.460 a

00:24:53.600 million

00:24:53.940 given

00:24:54.800 the

00:24:55.280 fact

00:24:55.700 that

00:24:56.220 you

00:24:56.620 have

00:24:56.960 trillions

00:24:57.840 upon

00:24:58.180 trillions

00:24:58.720 of

00:24:59.120 potential

00:24:59.700 lives

00:25:00.300 on

00:25:01.000 that

00:25:01.180 side

00:25:01.440 of

00:25:01.540 the

00:25:01.640 balance

00:25:02.080 well

00:25:02.700 then

00:25:02.860 that's

00:25:03.060 more

00:25:03.220 important

00:25:03.560 than

00:25:03.780 anything

00:25:04.260 I

00:25:04.980 could

00:25:05.120 do

00:25:05.300 now

00:25:05.580 including

00:25:05.920 saving

00:25:06.320 the

00:25:06.520 lives

00:25:06.860 of

00:25:07.140 identifiable

00:25:08.140 people

00:25:08.580 even

00:25:08.980 thousands

00:25:09.680 of

00:25:09.960 identifiable

00:25:10.460 people

00:25:10.820 and

00:25:11.440 that's

00:25:12.040 where

00:25:12.140 people

00:25:12.400 feel

00:25:12.640 like

00:25:12.800 something

00:25:13.080 has

00:25:13.260 simply

00:25:13.540 gone

00:25:13.800 wrong

00:25:14.280 here

00:25:14.660 in

00:25:14.860 how

00:25:15.400 we're

00:25:15.780 thinking

00:25:16.060 about

00:25:16.400 human

00:25:17.260 well-being

00:25:17.780 so

00:25:18.080 perhaps

00:25:18.460 you

00:25:18.600 can

00:25:18.720 address

00:25:19.000 that

00:25:19.260 sure

00:25:19.860 I'm

00:25:20.060 so glad

00:25:20.680 you

00:25:20.880 brought

00:25:21.300 it up

00:25:21.700 because

00:25:22.260 this

00:25:23.300 is a

00:25:23.560 framing

00:25:23.840 that

00:25:24.160 often

00:25:24.600 gets

00:25:24.820 mentioned

00:25:25.200 and

00:25:26.160 I

00:25:27.180 think

00:25:27.320 it's

00:25:27.460 really

00:25:27.660 unfortunate

00:25:28.140 and

00:25:28.720 I

00:25:28.820 want

00:25:28.940 to

00:25:29.040 push 0.64

00:25:29.220 against

00:25:29.540 it

00:25:29.780 in

00:25:30.300 the

00:25:30.580 strongest

00:25:30.960 possible

00:25:31.420 terms

00:25:31.880 where

00:25:32.940 if

00:25:34.140 it

00:25:34.900 were

00:25:35.120 the

00:25:35.300 case

00:25:35.660 that

00:25:36.040 the

00:25:36.180 argument

00:25:36.580 for

00:25:36.860 concern

00:25:37.460 and

00:25:37.700 serious

00:25:38.120 concern

00:25:38.680 about

00:25:39.300 how

00:25:39.540 we might

00:25:39.920 impact

00:25:42.400 on

00:25:42.600 these

00:25:42.840 vanishingly

00:25:43.520 small

00:25:43.840 probabilities

00:25:44.460 of

00:25:44.900 enormous

00:25:45.340 amounts

00:25:45.760 of

00:25:45.920 value

00:25:46.260 then

00:25:47.380 I

00:25:47.600 wouldn't

00:25:47.800 be

00:25:47.920 writing

00:25:48.160 this

00:25:48.380 book

00:25:48.640 I

00:25:49.020 would

00:25:49.180 be

00:25:49.300 doing

00:25:49.500 other

00:25:49.720 things

00:25:50.080 and

00:25:50.800 I

00:25:51.040 don't

00:25:51.280 think

00:25:51.500 it

00:25:51.620 does

00:25:51.940 and

00:25:52.720 the

00:25:53.060 reason

00:25:53.300 this

00:25:53.580 framing

00:25:53.880 came

00:25:54.180 up

00:25:54.400 is

00:25:54.560 because

00:25:54.880 in

00:25:55.300 academic

00:25:56.260 articles

00:25:56.920 Nick

00:25:57.740 Bostrom

00:25:58.280 who I

00:25:59.020 believe

00:25:59.200 you've

00:25:59.380 had

00:25:59.520 on

00:25:59.820 he

00:26:01.040 sketched

00:26:01.580 out

00:26:01.740 what

00:26:02.120 are

00:26:02.260 the

00:26:02.380 implications

00:26:02.960 of

00:26:03.840 a

00:26:04.360 very

00:26:04.600 particular

00:26:05.200 moral

00:26:05.800 view

00:26:06.120 expectational

00:26:07.880 total

00:26:08.620 utilitarianism

00:26:09.460 and he

00:26:10.480 said

00:26:10.760 well if

00:26:11.140 you're

00:26:11.300 taking

00:26:12.400 seriously

00:26:12.520 then

00:26:13.580 that's

00:26:14.500 the

00:26:14.620 conclusion

00:26:14.980 you

00:26:15.200 get

00:26:15.440 what

00:26:16.220 he

00:26:16.380 wasn't

00:26:16.680 saying

00:26:16.960 is

00:26:17.100 that

00:26:17.300 we

00:26:17.540 should

00:26:17.720 endorse

00:26:18.020 that

00:26:18.260 conclusion

00:26:18.700 in

00:26:19.440 fact

00:26:19.740 he

00:26:20.100 and

00:26:21.180 essentially

00:26:22.440 everyone

00:26:22.840 I

00:26:23.020 know

00:26:23.340 at least

00:26:24.180 in

00:26:24.380 practice

00:26:24.820 outside

00:26:25.240 of

00:26:25.420 the

00:26:25.560 ivory

00:26:26.920 tower

00:26:27.380 take

00:26:28.000 that

00:26:28.180 as

00:26:28.300 a

00:26:28.400 reductio

00:26:28.920 rather

00:26:29.480 than

00:26:29.920 an

00:26:30.460 implication

00:26:30.920 so

00:26:31.800 Nick

00:26:32.000 himself

00:26:32.600 is

00:26:32.780 not

00:26:32.940 consequentialist

00:26:33.740 even

00:26:33.980 and

00:26:34.680 wrote

00:26:34.840 other

00:26:35.120 papers

00:26:35.560 on

00:26:36.040 this

00:26:36.680 idea

00:26:36.880 of

00:26:37.100 Pascal's

00:26:37.700 mugging

00:26:38.040 so

00:26:38.260 it's

00:26:38.400 similar

00:26:38.620 like

00:26:38.860 Pascal's

00:26:39.360 wager

00:26:39.620 but

00:26:39.860 just

00:26:40.000 without

00:26:40.240 infinite

00:26:42.400 these

00:26:42.660 tiny

00:26:43.080 probabilities

00:26:43.660 of

00:26:43.920 huge

00:26:44.200 amounts

00:26:44.520 of

00:26:44.640 value

00:26:44.960 look

00:26:45.260 it

00:26:45.420 just

00:26:45.680 it

00:26:46.560 doesn't

00:26:46.940 seem

00:26:47.240 like

00:26:47.560 you

00:26:47.720 just

00:26:47.920 do

00:26:48.120 the

00:26:48.280 math

00:26:48.520 and

00:26:48.680 multiply

00:26:49.060 them

00:26:49.400 can

00:26:49.880 you

00:26:49.960 actually

00:26:50.160 describe

00:26:50.680 the

00:26:50.880 Pascal's

00:26:51.460 mugging

00:26:51.840 example

00:26:52.440 sure

00:26:53.440 I'm

00:26:53.740 happy

00:26:53.940 to

00:26:54.220 and

00:26:54.460 so

00:26:55.260 the

00:26:55.520 idea

00:26:55.900 is

00:26:56.220 just

00:26:56.700 you

00:26:57.220 know

00:26:57.580 you've

00:26:57.900 had a

00:26:58.080 nice

00:26:58.220 time

00:26:58.440 at

00:26:58.520 the

00:26:58.620 pub

00:26:58.800 you

00:26:59.120 walk

00:26:59.320 outside

00:26:59.780 a

00:27:00.520 man

00:27:00.800 comes

00:27:01.160 up

00:27:01.320 to

00:27:01.420 you

00:27:01.520 and

00:27:01.640 says

00:27:01.820 give

00:27:02.020 me

00:27:02.120 your

00:27:02.280 wallet

00:27:02.500 you

00:27:03.420 say

00:27:03.700 no

00:27:04.000 and

00:27:05.020 he

00:27:05.160 says

00:27:05.400 okay

00:27:12.400 tomorrow

00:27:12.640 we'll

00:27:13.120 come

00:27:13.340 back

00:27:13.720 and

00:27:14.540 I

00:27:14.820 will

00:27:15.000 give

00:27:15.240 you

00:27:15.500 any

00:27:16.700 finite

00:27:17.340 amount

00:27:17.800 of

00:27:18.040 well-being

00:27:18.440 so

00:27:19.960 just

00:27:21.180 whatever

00:27:21.960 amount

00:27:22.520 of

00:27:22.800 well-being

00:27:23.160 you

00:27:23.460 ask

00:27:23.740 for

00:27:23.940 I

00:27:24.420 will

00:27:24.580 give

00:27:24.760 you

00:27:24.900 it

00:27:25.060 and

00:27:26.560 you

00:27:26.780 say

00:27:26.960 no

00:27:27.280 I

00:27:27.600 don't

00:27:28.120 I

00:27:28.280 just

00:27:28.480 think

00:27:28.640 I'm

00:27:28.820 certain

00:27:29.160 that

00:27:29.340 that's

00:27:29.500 not

00:27:29.640 going

00:27:29.760 to

00:27:29.840 happen

00:27:30.080 and

00:27:31.080 the

00:27:31.500 man

00:27:31.680 says

00:27:31.820 come

00:27:32.000 on

00:27:32.140 you

00:27:32.200 look

00:27:33.920 at

00:27:34.040 my

00:27:34.240 eyes

00:27:34.580 I've

00:27:34.720 got

00:27:34.820 this

00:27:34.960 pale

00:27:35.180 complexion

00:27:36.040 I

00:27:36.260 look

00:27:36.460 a

00:27:36.580 bit

00:27:36.740 you

00:27:36.940 know

00:27:37.020 it's

00:27:37.460 possible

00:27:37.860 that

00:27:38.140 I'm

00:27:38.840 this

00:27:39.140 you

00:27:39.740 know

00:27:39.840 traveler

00:27:40.220 from

00:27:40.460 the

00:27:40.620 future

00:27:40.960 or

00:27:41.360 this

00:27:41.540 alien

00:27:41.880 with

00:27:42.160 like

00:27:42.320 amazing

00:27:42.680 powers

00:27:43.160 or

00:27:43.380 I'm

00:27:43.560 some

00:27:43.740 sort

00:27:44.000 of

00:27:44.380 god

00:27:44.780 it's

00:27:45.500 possible

00:27:46.040 maybe

00:27:46.400 it's

00:27:46.640 a

00:27:46.720 one

00:27:46.900 in a

00:27:47.140 billion

00:27:47.380 billion

00:27:47.740 billion

00:27:48.080 billion

00:27:48.420 that

00:27:49.120 I

00:27:49.260 will

00:27:49.380 be

00:27:49.500 able

00:27:49.660 to

00:27:49.820 do

00:27:49.960 this

00:27:50.300 but

00:27:50.880 it's

00:27:51.040 at

00:27:51.140 least

00:27:51.260 possible

00:27:51.700 and

00:27:52.340 you

00:27:52.420 take

00:27:52.660 that

00:27:52.880 one

00:27:53.080 in a

00:27:53.280 billion

00:27:53.500 billion

00:27:53.800 billion

00:27:54.100 billion

00:27:54.420 multiply

00:27:55.060 it

00:27:55.360 by

00:27:55.680 a

00:27:56.160 sufficiently

00:27:56.560 large

00:27:57.040 amount

00:27:57.280 of

00:27:57.440 well-being

00:27:57.800 for

00:27:58.060 you

00:27:58.320 that

00:27:59.440 in

00:28:00.200 what

00:28:00.440 decision

00:28:00.740 theorists

00:28:01.100 call

00:28:01.340 expected

00:28:01.900 value

00:28:02.380 which

00:28:03.200 is

00:28:03.320 where

00:28:03.460 you

00:28:03.600 take

00:28:03.840 the

00:28:04.100 probability

00:28:04.860 of an

00:28:05.400 outcome

00:28:05.820 and

00:28:06.500 the

00:28:06.840 value

00:28:07.200 of

00:28:07.340 that

00:28:07.440 outcome

00:28:07.780 and

00:28:07.980 multiply

00:28:08.280 them

00:28:08.500 together

00:28:08.800 to get

00:28:09.120 the

00:28:09.240 expected

00:28:09.600 value

00:28:09.960 that

00:28:10.660 expected

00:28:11.160 value

00:28:11.580 is

00:28:11.760 greater

00:28:12.100 than

00:28:12.680 that

00:28:12.820 100

00:28:13.140 pounds

00:28:13.500 for

00:28:13.700 you

00:28:13.880 and

00:28:15.140 then

00:28:15.860 maybe

00:28:16.100 you

00:28:16.260 say

00:28:16.500 oh

00:28:16.800 yeah

00:28:16.980 that's

00:28:17.420 okay

00:28:18.000 I guess

00:28:18.280 that seems

00:28:18.660 correct

00:28:18.980 you hand

00:28:19.320 over

00:28:19.960 the

00:28:20.080 hundred

00:28:20.280 pounds

00:28:20.720 and

00:28:21.960 now

00:28:22.260 what

00:28:22.640 Boszham

00:28:23.120 thinks

00:28:23.980 and

00:28:24.820 what

00:28:25.680 almost

00:28:26.160 everyone

00:28:26.600 who

00:28:27.080 works

00:28:27.380 in this

00:28:27.800 thinks

00:28:28.440 is that

00:28:29.100 that's

00:28:30.740 if you've

00:28:33.260 got a

00:28:33.500 decision

00:28:33.820 theory

00:28:34.160 it's

00:28:34.320 actually

00:28:34.520 not

00:28:34.720 about

00:28:34.960 morality

00:28:35.340 it's

00:28:35.620 about

00:28:35.820 your

00:28:36.000 theory

00:28:36.240 of

00:28:36.380 rationality

00:28:37.000 or

00:28:37.520 your

00:28:37.660 decision

00:28:37.940 theory

00:28:38.300 but

00:28:38.900 if

00:28:39.040 you've

00:28:39.220 got

00:28:39.300 a

00:28:39.440 decision

00:28:39.660 theory

00:28:39.980 that

00:28:40.200 says

00:28:40.400 you

00:28:40.540 should

00:28:40.720 give

00:28:40.880 the

00:28:41.040 wallet

00:28:41.280 to

00:28:41.760 the

00:28:41.900 mugger

00:28:42.180 then

00:28:43.480 something

00:28:44.320 has

00:28:44.580 gone

00:28:44.760 badly

00:28:45.100 wrong

00:28:45.420 and

00:28:46.660 one

00:28:47.260 way

00:28:47.540 that

00:28:47.760 I

00:28:47.880 like

00:28:48.060 to

00:28:48.180 illustrate

00:28:48.480 this

00:28:48.840 and

00:28:49.020 this

00:28:49.160 applies

00:28:49.500 to

00:28:49.820 the

00:28:50.080 and

00:28:51.100 this

00:28:51.380 problem

00:28:51.660 gets

00:28:51.820 called

00:28:52.020 the

00:28:52.160 fanaticism

00:28:52.740 problem

00:28:53.100 and

00:28:53.980 it's

00:28:54.360 a

00:28:54.460 really

00:28:54.620 interesting

00:28:55.140 area

00:28:55.620 of

00:28:55.820 decision

00:28:56.080 theory

00:28:56.380 because

00:28:56.780 I

00:28:57.280 actually

00:28:57.480 think

00:28:57.660 it's

00:28:57.800 the

00:28:57.940 strongest

00:28:58.280 argument

00:28:58.720 against

00:28:59.340 a

00:29:00.260 theory

00:29:00.480 that

00:29:00.680 is

00:29:00.780 otherwise

00:29:01.140 very

00:29:01.500 good

00:29:01.780 which

00:29:02.160 is

00:29:02.380 expected

00:29:02.820 value

00:29:03.140 theory

00:29:03.460 but

00:29:04.020 seeing

00:29:04.340 one

00:29:04.600 way

00:29:04.800 of

00:29:04.920 this

00:29:05.220 going

00:29:05.440 wrong

00:29:05.800 is

00:29:06.460 if

00:29:07.280 this

00:29:07.520 argument

00:29:07.880 is

00:29:08.200 used

00:29:08.580 for

00:29:08.800 giving

00:29:08.980 your

00:29:09.220 money

00:29:09.400 to

00:29:09.580 the

00:29:09.700 mugger

00:29:10.020 or

00:29:10.860 for

00:29:11.360 looking

00:29:13.200 for

00:29:13.580 future

00:29:13.900 amounts

00:29:14.220 of

00:29:14.360 value

00:29:14.640 even

00:29:15.040 if

00:29:15.300 it

00:29:15.440 were

00:29:15.660 just

00:29:15.920 one

00:29:16.100 in

00:29:16.200 a

00:29:16.300 billion

00:29:16.540 chance

00:29:17.060 that

00:29:17.220 you

00:29:17.340 could

00:29:17.500 change

00:29:17.980 it

00:29:18.220 well

00:29:19.000 why

00:29:19.280 are

00:29:19.420 you

00:29:19.540 going

00:29:19.780 after

00:29:20.040 only

00:29:20.380 finite

00:29:20.740 amounts

00:29:21.100 of

00:29:21.260 value

00:29:21.540 there's

00:29:22.420 a

00:29:22.540 long

00:29:22.780 religious

00:29:23.160 tradition

00:29:23.680 that

00:29:24.040 says

00:29:24.240 you

00:29:24.360 can

00:29:24.480 get

00:29:24.640 infinite

00:29:25.060 amounts

00:29:25.440 of

00:29:25.600 value

00:29:25.880 via

00:29:26.140 heaven

00:29:26.460 and

00:29:27.500 so

00:29:27.760 really

00:29:28.120 the

00:29:28.340 upshot

00:29:28.700 if

00:29:28.860 you're

00:29:28.960 taking

00:29:29.240 expected

00:29:29.660 value

00:29:30.000 theory

00:29:30.280 seriously

00:29:32.880 is to

00:29:33.960 become

00:29:34.180 a

00:29:34.360 missionary

00:29:34.600 to

00:29:35.160 try and

00:29:35.680 ensure

00:29:36.060 that

00:29:36.320 you

00:29:36.480 get

00:29:36.700 into

00:29:37.020 as

00:29:37.560 many

00:29:37.820 heavens

00:29:38.120 as

00:29:38.340 possible

00:29:38.700 according

00:29:39.060 to

00:29:39.360 as

00:29:39.880 many

00:29:40.120 different

00:29:40.600 forms

00:29:41.460 of

00:29:42.000 religious

00:29:42.360 belief

00:29:42.760 as

00:29:42.960 possible

00:29:43.300 and

00:29:43.760 try and

00:29:44.080 convince

00:29:44.360 others

00:29:44.640 to

00:29:44.780 the

00:29:44.900 same

00:29:45.160 to

00:29:45.440 do

00:29:45.560 the

00:29:45.740 same

00:29:49.780 if

00:29:49.920 you're

00:29:50.120 really

00:29:50.340 going

00:29:50.620 with

00:29:50.820 the

00:29:50.920 math

00:29:51.140 and

00:29:51.280 doing

00:29:51.460 it

00:29:51.600 takes

00:29:51.860 you

00:29:52.060 and

00:29:52.660 I

00:29:52.780 know

00:29:53.040 of

00:29:53.420 zero

00:29:53.760 people

00:29:54.100 who

00:29:54.380 have

00:29:54.620 done

00:29:55.080 that

00:29:55.240 everyone

00:29:56.020 says

00:29:56.400 look

00:29:56.700 okay

00:29:57.080 something

00:29:57.900 we don't

00:29:58.280 know

00:29:58.440 what

00:29:58.780 I think

00:29:59.340 this is

00:29:59.600 an

00:29:59.740 incredibly

00:30:00.340 hard

00:30:00.880 area

00:30:01.600 within

00:30:02.220 decision

00:30:03.000 theory

00:30:03.360 we don't

00:30:04.480 know

00:30:04.640 what

00:30:04.840 the

00:30:04.980 right

00:30:05.140 answer

00:30:05.440 is

00:30:05.760 but

00:30:06.080 it's

00:30:06.260 not

00:30:06.460 that

00:30:06.780 and

00:30:08.300 the

00:30:08.900 argument

00:30:09.900 for

00:30:10.240 concern

00:30:10.680 about

00:30:10.920 the

00:30:11.080 long

00:30:11.280 term

00:30:11.460 future

00:30:11.860 is

00:30:12.160 the

00:30:12.300 fact

00:30:12.520 that

00:30:12.660 these

00:30:12.860 risks

00:30:13.260 are

00:30:13.800 more

00:30:14.220 like

00:30:14.480 the

00:30:14.620 risks

00:30:14.860 of

00:30:15.020 dying

00:30:15.220 in

00:30:15.340 a

00:30:15.440 car

00:30:15.620 crash

00:30:15.940 and

00:30:16.580 much

00:30:16.780 less

00:30:17.080 like

00:30:17.460 the

00:30:18.180 one

00:30:18.400 in a

00:30:18.600 billion

00:30:18.860 billion

00:30:19.240 Pascal's

00:30:19.940 mugger

00:30:20.140 kind

00:30:20.340 of

00:30:20.460 risk

00:30:20.680 well

00:30:22.380 admittedly

00:30:22.920 this is

00:30:23.260 a

00:30:23.400 problem

00:30:23.740 I have

00:30:24.060 not

00:30:24.340 thought

00:30:25.020 much

00:30:25.300 about

00:30:25.680 but

00:30:26.060 I

00:30:26.540 have

00:30:26.680 a

00:30:26.780 couple

00:30:26.940 of

00:30:27.080 intuitions

00:30:27.600 here

00:30:27.900 kindling

00:30:28.600 as I

00:30:28.980 listen

00:30:29.420 to you

00:30:29.680 describe

00:30:30.140 it

00:30:30.320 one

00:30:30.880 is

00:30:31.100 that

00:30:31.420 obviously

00:30:32.280 expected

00:30:32.700 value

00:30:33.320 becomes

00:30:34.040 eminently

00:30:34.560 rational

00:30:35.120 within the

00:30:36.380 domain

00:30:36.760 of

00:30:37.080 normal

00:30:37.700 probabilities

00:30:38.380 I

00:30:38.660 mean

00:30:38.760 it

00:30:38.960 works

00:30:39.280 in

00:30:39.480 poker

00:30:39.840 it

00:30:40.520 works

00:30:40.880 in

00:30:41.280 any

00:30:41.880 kind

00:30:42.040 decision

00:30:42.440 analysis

00:30:42.960 where

00:30:43.380 you're

00:30:43.700 just

00:30:43.920 trying

00:30:44.240 to

00:30:44.400 figure

00:30:44.620 out

00:30:45.040 what

00:30:45.620 you

00:30:45.780 should

00:30:45.980 do

00:30:46.440 under

00:30:46.840 uncertainty

00:30:47.400 and

00:30:48.300 you're

00:30:48.460 dealing

00:30:48.640 with

00:30:48.860 probabilities

00:30:49.480 of

00:30:49.840 one

00:30:50.340 third

00:30:50.740 or

00:30:51.020 ten

00:30:51.300 percent

00:30:51.820 that

00:30:52.360 is

00:30:53.300 how

00:30:53.520 we

00:30:53.680 organize

00:30:54.100 our

00:30:54.580 intuitions

00:30:55.660 about

00:30:56.560 the

00:30:56.800 future

00:30:57.240 in

00:30:58.000 the

00:30:58.120 most

00:30:58.320 systematic

00:30:58.660 way

00:30:59.340 and

00:31:00.100 I

00:31:00.220 guess

00:31:00.380 there

00:31:00.620 are

00:31:00.860 even

00:31:01.400 corner

00:31:02.240 conditions

00:31:02.680 within

00:31:03.120 the

00:31:03.320 domain

00:31:03.620 of

00:31:03.900 normal

00:31:04.760 probabilities

00:31:05.440 where

00:31:05.720 this

00:31:06.260 is

00:31:06.920 not

00:31:07.120 a

00:31:07.240 repeated

00:31:07.540 game

00:31:07.980 you've

00:31:08.220 got

00:31:08.340 one

00:31:08.720 shot

00:31:09.200 to 0.56

00:31:09.500 take

00:31:09.720 this

00:31:09.940 risk

00:31:10.320 and

00:31:10.840 it

00:31:11.600 may

00:31:11.780 be

00:31:12.020 that

00:31:12.240 risking

00:31:12.760 your

00:31:13.000 life

00:31:13.380 whatever

00:31:14.060 you put

00:31:14.520 on the

00:31:14.760 other

00:31:15.020 side

00:31:15.460 of

00:31:15.560 the

00:31:15.680 scale

00:31:16.020 doesn't

00:31:16.800 make

00:31:17.000 sense

00:31:17.300 except

00:31:17.600 we

00:31:18.380 don't

00:31:18.560 live

00:31:18.760 that

00:31:18.940 way

00:31:19.120 we

00:31:19.280 risk

00:31:19.500 our

00:31:19.640 lives

00:31:19.940 every

00:31:20.160 time

00:31:20.400 we

00:31:20.540 get

00:31:20.680 into

00:31:20.840 a

00:31:21.000 car

00:31:21.280 or

00:31:21.420 get

00:31:21.520 on

00:31:21.640 a

00:31:21.740 plane

00:31:22.040 or

00:31:22.200 ride

00:31:22.400 a

00:31:22.520 bike

00:31:22.760 or

00:31:22.900 do

00:31:23.020 it

00:31:23.140 like

00:31:23.360 we've

00:31:23.760 all

00:31:23.880 made

00:31:24.080 these

00:31:24.260 trade-offs

00:31:24.740 whether

00:31:24.960 we've

00:31:25.240 actually

00:31:25.480 done

00:31:25.820 the

00:31:25.960 decision

00:31:26.280 analysis

00:31:26.840 or

00:31:27.500 not

00:31:27.940 and

00:31:28.440 consciously

00:31:29.040 assigned

00:31:29.620 probabilities

00:31:30.280 or

00:31:30.520 not

00:31:30.780 we

00:31:31.280 just

00:31:31.420 have

00:31:31.520 this

00:31:31.680 vague

00:31:32.000 sense

00:31:32.360 that

00:31:32.620 certain

00:31:33.440 types

00:31:33.760 of

00:31:33.920 risks

00:31:34.180 are

00:31:34.360 acceptable

00:31:34.860 and

00:31:35.700 I

00:31:35.800 guess

00:31:35.940 my

00:31:36.160 other

00:31:36.340 intuition

00:31:36.660 is

00:31:37.700 that

00:31:38.020 this

00:31:38.860 is

00:31:39.020 somewhat

00:31:39.420 analogous

00:31:40.160 to

00:31:40.340 the

00:31:40.620 problems

00:31:41.440 disgorged

00:31:42.520 by

00:31:42.980 population

00:31:44.000 ethics

00:31:44.780 where

00:31:44.980 when

00:31:45.120 we

00:31:45.260 talk

00:31:45.600 about

00:31:46.060 things

00:31:46.520 like

00:31:46.700 the 0.99

00:31:46.840 repugnant

00:31:47.200 conclusion

00:31:47.760 and

00:31:48.760 you

00:31:48.960 talk

00:31:49.440 about

00:31:49.620 very

00:31:49.940 large

00:31:50.360 numbers

00:31:50.760 of

00:31:50.980 very

00:31:51.180 small

00:31:51.480 things

00:31:51.960 or

00:31:52.560 very

00:31:52.740 small

00:31:52.980 utility

00:31:53.420 you

00:31:54.220 seem

00:31:54.460 to

00:31:54.580 get

00:31:54.760 these

00:31:55.080 grotesque

00:31:55.940 outcomes

00:31:56.920 ethically

00:31:57.680 where

00:31:58.700 do you

00:31:59.240 think

00:31:59.680 this is

00:32:00.460 breaking

00:32:00.720 down

00:32:01.120 or why

00:32:01.520 do you

00:32:01.740 think

00:32:01.920 it

00:32:02.020 is

00:32:02.140 breaking

00:32:02.380 down

00:32:02.700 so

00:32:03.560 the

00:32:03.920 standard

00:32:04.680 response

00:32:06.060 within

00:32:06.520 decision

00:32:06.940 theory

00:32:07.320 would be

00:32:08.060 to have

00:32:08.440 what's

00:32:08.900 so it

00:32:09.420 all gets

00:32:09.720 technical

00:32:10.080 quickly

00:32:10.500 and I

00:32:11.160 apologize

00:32:11.500 if I

00:32:11.880 don't

00:32:12.080 do a

00:32:12.480 good job

00:32:12.900 of

00:32:13.040 explaining

00:32:13.400 the

00:32:13.600 ideas

00:32:13.920 but the

00:32:14.720 standard

00:32:15.020 response

00:32:15.440 is to

00:32:15.700 have

00:32:15.820 what's

00:32:16.060 called

00:32:16.220 a

00:32:16.380 bounded

00:32:16.700 value

00:32:17.120 function

00:32:17.540 and

00:32:18.420 it's

00:32:18.660 easiest

00:32:18.980 to

00:32:19.240 see

00:32:19.440 this

00:32:19.800 when

00:32:20.220 it

00:32:20.460 comes

00:32:20.820 to

00:32:21.280 money

00:32:22.660 let's

00:32:23.040 say

00:32:23.220 so

00:32:24.900 if

00:32:25.220 the

00:32:25.740 mugger

00:32:26.840 in

00:32:27.120 Pascal's

00:32:27.580 mugging

00:32:27.840 was

00:32:28.060 saying

00:32:28.440 okay

00:32:29.100 I

00:32:29.300 will

00:32:29.460 take

00:32:29.780 100

00:32:30.200 pounds

00:32:30.660 off

00:32:30.900 you

00:32:31.120 today

00:32:31.580 and

00:32:32.220 I

00:32:32.320 will

00:32:32.420 come

00:32:32.600 back

00:32:32.820 tomorrow

00:32:33.200 with

00:32:33.760 any

00:32:34.060 finite

00:32:34.460 amount

00:32:34.800 of

00:32:34.980 money

00:32:35.200 you

00:32:35.520 like

00:32:35.800 that

00:32:36.220 you

00:32:36.300 can

00:32:36.440 spend

00:32:36.660 on

00:32:36.800 yourself

00:32:37.120 let's

00:32:37.480 just

00:32:37.600 assume

00:32:37.900 you're

00:32:38.020 completely

00:32:38.480 self-interested

00:32:39.140 to keep

00:32:39.880 it

00:32:39.980 simple

00:32:40.260 I

00:32:41.540 could

00:32:41.780 say

00:32:42.200 look

00:32:43.300 my

00:32:44.160 probability

00:32:44.860 of you

00:32:45.940 coming

00:32:46.260 back

00:32:46.740 is so

00:32:47.460 low

00:32:47.820 that

00:32:48.480 there

00:32:48.720 is

00:32:48.940 no

00:32:49.600 amount

00:32:50.060 of

00:32:50.280 money

00:32:50.560 that

00:32:51.200 you

00:32:51.320 could

00:32:51.480 give

00:32:51.660 me

00:32:51.940 such

00:32:52.580 that

00:32:52.980 the

00:32:53.700 probability

00:32:54.280 times

00:32:57.520 that

00:32:58.360 amount

00:32:58.620 of

00:32:58.760 money

00:32:59.000 would

00:32:59.800 add

00:33:00.080 up

00:33:00.340 to

00:33:00.540 more

00:33:00.920 expected

00:33:01.620 well-being

00:33:02.120 for me

00:33:02.580 than

00:33:02.880 100

00:33:03.180 pounds

00:33:03.560 now

00:33:03.860 so

00:33:04.540 let's

00:33:04.760 say

00:33:04.880 I

00:33:05.020 think

00:33:05.200 it's

00:33:05.360 one

00:33:05.520 in

00:33:05.620 a

00:33:05.720 billion

00:33:05.960 billion

00:33:06.280 that

00:33:06.520 the

00:33:06.660 mugger

00:33:06.860 will

00:33:07.020 come

00:33:07.220 back

00:33:07.580 okay

00:33:08.340 sure

00:33:08.780 the

00:33:09.560 mugger

00:33:09.940 could

00:33:10.340 give

00:33:10.600 me

00:33:10.960 you

00:33:11.620 know

00:33:11.720 a

00:33:11.900 thousand

00:33:12.320 billion

00:33:13.220 billion

00:33:13.860 dollars

00:33:15.100 and

00:33:16.060 that

00:33:16.220 would

00:33:16.380 mean

00:33:16.720 more

00:33:17.480 I

00:33:17.700 would

00:33:17.880 have

00:33:18.260 greater

00:33:18.740 expected

00:33:19.420 financial

00:33:20.060 return

00:33:20.560 however

00:33:21.460 I

00:33:21.720 wouldn't

00:33:22.080 have

00:33:22.260 greater

00:33:22.540 expected

00:33:23.040 well-being

00:33:23.540 because

00:33:24.140 the

00:33:24.280 more

00:33:24.440 money

00:33:24.640 I

00:33:24.800 have

00:33:25.160 the

00:33:25.820 less

00:33:26.140 it

00:33:26.400 impacts

00:33:26.800 my

00:33:27.000 well-being

00:33:27.400 and

00:33:28.040 there's

00:33:28.260 some

00:33:28.520 amount

00:33:28.900 there's

00:33:29.500 only so

00:33:30.000 much

00:33:30.420 that

00:33:31.040 money

00:33:31.260 can

00:33:31.460 buy

00:33:31.680 for

00:33:31.900 me

00:33:32.120 at

00:33:33.000 some

00:33:33.260 point

00:33:33.520 it

00:33:33.760 starts

00:33:33.980 making

00:33:34.300 this

00:33:34.500 like

00:33:34.700 vanishingly

00:33:35.260 small

00:33:35.480 difference

00:33:35.960 such

00:33:36.900 that

00:33:37.260 there's

00:33:37.940 a

00:33:38.040 level

00:33:38.240 of

00:33:38.380 well-being

00:33:38.800 such

00:33:39.140 that

00:33:39.280 I

00:33:39.420 can't

00:33:39.740 get

00:33:40.020 like

00:33:40.380 a

00:33:40.760 thousand

00:33:41.060 times

00:33:41.740 greater

00:33:42.220 well-being

00:33:42.700 with

00:33:43.640 any

00:33:44.520 amount

00:33:44.980 more

00:33:45.260 money

00:33:45.520 and

00:33:46.680 so

00:33:46.780 that's

00:33:46.980 very

00:33:47.180 clear

00:33:47.540 when it

00:33:47.880 comes

00:33:48.100 to

00:33:48.320 financial

00:33:48.860 returns

00:33:49.380 but

00:33:50.060 you

00:33:50.200 might

00:33:50.440 think

00:33:50.700 the

00:33:50.880 same

00:33:51.100 thing

00:33:51.360 happens

00:33:51.720 with

00:33:51.920 well-being

00:33:52.360 so

00:33:53.500 supposing

00:33:54.000 I have

00:33:54.500 the

00:33:54.700 best

00:33:55.260 possible

00:33:55.840 life

00:33:56.200 just

00:33:56.440 like

00:33:56.760 peaks

00:33:57.740 of

00:33:57.960 bliss

00:33:58.660 and

00:33:58.920 enjoyment

00:33:59.780 and

00:34:00.340 amazing

00:34:01.340 relationships

00:34:01.980 and

00:34:02.400 creative

00:34:02.880 insight

00:34:03.320 over

00:34:03.660 and

00:34:03.840 over

00:34:04.140 and

00:34:04.820 that's

00:34:05.080 for

00:34:05.200 some

00:34:05.420 very

00:34:06.000 long

00:34:06.620 lived

00:34:06.840 life

00:34:07.240 perhaps

00:34:08.280 you

00:34:08.460 just

00:34:08.680 imagine

00:34:09.140 that

00:34:09.540 now

00:34:10.220 you

00:34:10.360 might

00:34:10.600 think

00:34:11.020 oh

00:34:12.180 it's

00:34:12.440 just

00:34:12.620 not

00:34:13.020 possible

00:34:13.500 to

00:34:13.760 have

00:34:13.900 a

00:34:14.020 life

00:34:14.260 that's

00:34:15.180 a

00:34:15.360 thousand

00:34:15.680 times

00:34:16.100 better

00:34:16.460 than

00:34:16.780 that

00:34:16.980 life

00:34:17.260 we've

00:34:17.440 just

00:34:17.620 imagined

00:34:17.980 and

00:34:19.260 in

00:34:19.600 fact

00:34:19.880 I think

00:34:20.240 that's

00:34:20.500 how

00:34:20.620 people do

00:34:21.300 in

00:34:21.540 fact

00:34:21.820 reason

00:34:22.140 so

00:34:23.200 even

00:34:23.620 if

00:34:24.000 you

00:34:24.100 say

00:34:24.380 to

00:34:24.560 someone

00:34:24.820 look

00:34:25.180 you

00:34:25.880 can

00:34:26.060 have

00:34:26.280 a

00:34:26.440 50-50

00:34:27.100 chance

00:34:27.680 you

00:34:28.060 either 1.00

00:34:28.260 die 0.99

00:34:28.520 now 1.00

00:34:28.860 or

00:34:29.620 you

00:34:29.880 get

00:34:30.040 to

00:34:30.220 live

00:34:30.400 for

00:34:30.560 as

00:34:30.700 long

00:34:30.880 as

00:34:31.000 you

00:34:31.100 like

00:34:31.360 and

00:34:32.080 choose

00:34:32.380 when

00:34:32.680 to

00:34:32.880 when

00:34:33.540 you

00:34:33.660 pass

00:34:33.880 away

00:34:34.140 I

00:34:35.180 think

00:34:35.360 most

00:34:35.580 people

00:34:35.780 don't

00:34:36.000 take

00:34:36.220 that

00:34:36.420 bet

00:34:36.740 and

00:34:37.420 that

00:34:37.600 suggests

00:34:38.080 that

00:34:38.420 we

00:34:38.580 actually

00:34:38.920 think

00:34:39.320 that

00:34:39.700 perhaps

00:34:40.560 the

00:34:40.740 kind

00:34:40.900 of

00:34:41.120 I

00:34:41.880 mean

00:34:42.000 there's

00:34:42.160 issues

00:34:42.820 with

00:34:43.180 kind

00:34:43.380 of

00:34:43.840 very

00:34:44.320 long

00:34:44.560 lives

00:34:44.920 but

00:34:45.180 we

00:34:45.860 can

00:34:45.980 reformulate

00:34:46.560 the

00:34:46.720 thought

00:34:46.880 experiment

00:34:47.280 either

00:34:48.100 way

00:34:48.360 I

00:34:48.560 think

00:34:48.760 people

00:34:49.020 just

00:34:49.260 do

00:34:49.540 think

00:34:49.980 there's

00:34:50.960 just

00:34:51.180 an

00:34:51.400 upper

00:34:51.620 bound

00:34:52.080 to

00:34:53.520 how

00:34:53.900 good

00:34:54.420 a

00:34:54.660 life

00:34:54.820 could

00:34:55.000 be

00:34:55.260 and

00:34:56.040 as

00:34:56.220 soon

00:34:56.400 as

00:34:56.540 you've

00:34:56.700 accepted

00:34:57.100 that

00:34:57.580 then

00:34:58.160 in

00:34:58.720 the

00:34:58.860 self

00:34:59.060 interest

00:34:59.280 case

00:34:59.720 you

00:35:00.220 avoid

00:35:00.720 you

00:35:01.600 can

00:35:01.760 very

00:35:02.220 readily

00:35:02.560 avoid

00:35:03.080 this

00:35:03.640 kind

00:35:03.800 of

00:35:03.900 Pascal's

00:35:04.360 mugging

00:35:04.640 or

00:35:04.780 Pascal's

00:35:05.280 wager

00:35:05.560 situation

00:35:06.220 and

00:35:07.200 perhaps

00:35:07.600 you

00:35:07.780 can

00:35:07.900 make

00:35:08.100 the

00:35:08.300 same

00:35:08.640 move

00:35:09.820 when

00:35:09.980 it

00:35:10.080 comes

00:35:10.280 to

00:35:10.420 moral

00:35:10.660 value

00:35:11.060 as

00:35:11.240 well

00:35:11.460 where

00:35:12.200 you're

00:35:12.420 ultimately

00:35:12.740 saying

00:35:13.200 there's

00:35:14.060 a

00:35:14.180 limit

00:35:14.380 to

00:35:14.560 how

00:35:14.700 good

00:35:15.020 the

00:35:15.480 world

00:35:15.780 or

00:35:16.160 the

00:35:16.300 universe

00:35:16.720 can

00:35:17.440 be

00:35:17.700 and

00:35:18.420 as

00:35:18.580 soon

00:35:18.780 as

00:35:18.920 you've

00:35:19.060 got

00:35:19.200 that

00:35:19.460 then

00:35:19.620 you

00:35:19.720 avoid

00:35:20.080 Pascal's

00:35:20.560 mugging

00:35:20.840 you

00:35:21.240 avoid

00:35:21.540 Pascal's

00:35:22.060 wager

00:35:22.340 however

00:35:23.260 you do

00:35:23.600 get

00:35:23.740 into

00:35:23.880 other

00:35:24.080 problems

00:35:24.460 and so

00:35:24.800 that's

00:35:25.040 why

00:35:25.140 it's

00:35:25.280 so

00:35:25.440 difficult

00:35:25.840 yeah

00:35:26.580 I mean

00:35:26.740 the

00:35:26.980 thing

00:35:27.320 that

00:35:27.560 I

00:35:28.300 think

00:35:28.500 is

00:35:28.600 especially

00:35:28.980 novel

00:35:29.420 about

00:35:29.740 what

00:35:30.060 you've

00:35:30.280 been

00:35:30.380 doing

00:35:30.680 and

00:35:30.820 about

00:35:31.060 EA

00:35:31.420 in

00:35:32.360 general

00:35:32.840 which

00:35:33.980 I

00:35:34.900 always

00:35:35.240 tend

00:35:35.400 to

00:35:35.520 emphasize

00:35:35.800 in

00:35:36.160 this

00:35:36.440 conversation

00:35:37.140 I

00:35:37.320 think

00:35:37.700 I've

00:35:37.900 brought

00:35:38.060 this

00:35:38.240 up

00:35:38.400 with

00:35:38.520 you

00:35:38.700 many

00:35:39.360 times

00:35:39.680 before

00:35:40.080 but

00:35:40.920 its

00:35:41.240 novelty

00:35:41.720 has

00:35:42.080 not

00:35:42.320 faded

00:35:42.820 for

00:35:43.080 me

00:35:43.300 and

00:35:43.500 here's

00:35:44.380 the

00:35:44.480 non-novel

00:35:45.020 part

00:35:45.380 about

00:35:45.620 which

00:35:45.840 someone

00:35:46.080 could

00:35:46.260 be

00:35:46.440 somewhat

00:35:46.800 cynical

00:35:47.460 there's

00:35:49.140 just

00:35:49.260 this

00:35:49.400 basic

00:35:49.720 recognition

00:35:50.260 that

00:35:50.520 some

00:35:50.720 charities

00:35:51.180 are

00:35:51.380 much

00:35:51.560 more

00:35:51.740 effective

00:35:52.100 than

00:35:52.380 others

00:35:52.740 and

00:35:53.220 we

00:35:53.320 should

00:35:53.440 want

00:35:53.660 to

00:35:53.780 know

00:35:53.920 which

00:35:54.140 are

00:35:54.260 which

00:35:54.580 and

00:35:54.900 prioritize

00:35:55.400 our

00:35:55.720 resources

00:35:56.140 accordingly

00:35:56.640 I mean

00:35:56.880 that's

00:35:57.220 the

00:35:57.900 effective

00:35:58.340 part

00:35:58.840 of

00:35:59.080 effective

00:35:59.560 altruism

00:36:00.080 that's

00:36:00.980 great

00:36:01.280 and

00:36:01.580 that's

00:36:01.880 not

00:36:02.160 what

00:36:02.420 has

00:36:02.800 captivated

00:36:03.760 me

00:36:03.920 about

00:36:04.180 this

00:36:04.400 I

00:36:04.580 think

00:36:04.780 the

00:36:04.980 thing

00:36:05.720 that

00:36:05.920 is

00:36:06.180 most

00:36:07.020 interesting

00:36:07.340 to

00:36:07.520 me

00:36:07.720 is

00:36:08.000 by

00:36:08.520 prioritizing

00:36:09.500 effectiveness

00:36:10.240 in an

00:36:11.560 unsentimental

00:36:12.340 way

00:36:12.720 what

00:36:13.420 you've

00:36:13.620 done

00:36:13.900 for me

00:36:14.320 is

00:36:14.480 you've

00:36:14.800 uncoupled

00:36:15.500 the

00:36:16.140 ethics

00:36:16.800 of

00:36:17.920 what

00:36:18.200 we're

00:36:18.380 doing

00:36:18.840 from

00:36:19.840 positive

00:36:20.640 psychology

00:36:21.280 really

00:36:22.020 just

00:36:22.280 divorcing

00:36:22.800 the

00:36:22.980 question

00:36:23.500 of

00:36:24.060 how

00:36:24.260 I

00:36:24.520 can

00:36:24.680 do

00:36:24.800 the

00:36:24.960 most

00:36:25.180 good

00:36:25.580 from

00:36:26.500 the

00:36:26.660 question

00:36:27.180 of

00:36:27.760 what

00:36:28.060 I

00:36:28.220 find

00:36:28.900 to

00:36:29.360 be

00:36:29.500 most

00:36:29.780 rewarding

00:36:30.340 about

00:36:30.920 doing

00:36:31.200 good

00:36:31.420 in

00:36:31.520 the

00:36:31.620 world

00:36:31.860 I'm

00:36:32.620 always

00:36:33.240 tempted

00:36:33.560 to

00:36:33.840 figure

00:36:34.520 out

00:36:34.680 how

00:36:34.840 to

00:36:35.020 marry

00:36:35.320 them

00:36:35.580 more

00:36:35.860 and

00:36:36.020 more

00:36:36.280 I

00:36:36.460 think

00:36:36.620 because

00:36:36.840 I

00:36:36.960 think

00:36:37.100 that

00:36:37.220 would

00:36:37.300 be

00:36:37.380 the

00:36:37.500 most

00:36:37.740 motivating

00:36:38.260 and

00:36:38.580 by

00:36:38.960 definition

00:36:39.380 the

00:36:39.600 most

00:36:39.800 rewarding

00:36:40.320 way

00:36:40.780 to

00:36:40.980 live

00:36:41.380 but

00:36:42.280 I'm

00:36:42.960 truly

00:36:43.220 agnostic

00:36:43.800 as to

00:36:44.700 how

00:36:44.960 married

00:36:45.460 they

00:36:45.700 might

00:36:45.960 be

00:36:46.240 and

00:36:46.400 when

00:36:46.520 I

00:36:46.680 survey

00:36:47.340 my

00:36:47.660 own

00:36:47.860 experience

00:36:48.480 I

00:36:49.460 notice

00:36:49.800 they're

00:36:50.360 really

00:36:50.560 not

00:36:50.780 married

00:36:51.160 at

00:36:51.340 all

00:36:51.720 for

00:36:52.520 instance

00:36:52.920 over

00:36:53.880 at

00:36:54.040 Waking

00:36:54.280 Up

00:36:54.580 we

00:36:55.040 launched

00:36:55.480 this

00:36:55.900 campaign

00:36:56.480 which

00:36:56.980 we've

00:36:57.220 called

00:36:57.560 100

00:36:57.960 Days

00:36:58.300 of

00:36:58.460 Giving

00:36:58.720 and

00:37:00.060 you know

00:37:00.800 so for

00:37:01.040 100

00:37:01.320 days

00:37:01.700 we're

00:37:01.960 giving

00:37:02.320 $10,000

00:37:03.300 a day

00:37:03.980 to

00:37:04.200 various

00:37:04.700 charities

00:37:05.200 and we're

00:37:05.540 having

00:37:05.840 subscribers

00:37:06.820 over at

00:37:07.180 Waking

00:37:07.380 Up

00:37:07.620 decide

00:37:08.220 which

00:37:09.080 charities

00:37:09.580 among

00:37:10.020 the list

00:37:11.300 that

00:37:11.720 you and

00:37:13.140 friends

00:37:13.700 have helped

00:37:14.100 me

00:37:14.220 vet

00:37:14.500 so

00:37:15.120 every

00:37:15.460 single

00:37:15.800 day

00:37:16.220 we're

00:37:17.360 giving

00:37:17.660 $10,000

00:37:18.320 away

00:37:18.800 to

00:37:18.980 some

00:37:19.200 great

00:37:19.640 cause

00:37:20.480 and

00:37:21.320 we're

00:37:21.520 about

00:37:21.700 30

00:37:22.080 days

00:37:22.400 into

00:37:22.580 this

00:37:22.800 campaign

00:37:23.340 and

00:37:24.100 honestly

00:37:24.440 I

00:37:24.860 think

00:37:25.320 for

00:37:26.140 most

00:37:26.660 of

00:37:26.880 those

00:37:27.220 30

00:37:27.700 days

00:37:28.260 I

00:37:28.780 have

00:37:28.940 not

00:37:29.220 thought

00:37:29.660 about

00:37:29.960 it

00:37:30.120 at

00:37:30.280 all

00:37:30.540 right

00:37:30.980 I

00:37:31.080 mean

00:37:31.160 literally

00:37:31.520 like

00:37:32.040 it

00:37:32.200 has

00:37:32.380 not

00:37:32.620 even

00:37:32.820 been

00:37:33.280 a

00:37:34.080 10

00:37:34.440 second

00:37:34.960 memory

00:37:35.960 on

00:37:36.620 any

00:37:36.820 given

00:37:37.140 day

00:37:37.880 and

00:37:38.760 you know

00:37:39.500 I

00:37:39.600 consider

00:37:39.940 that

00:37:40.380 on

00:37:41.060 some

00:37:41.240 level

00:37:41.460 a

00:37:41.920 feature

00:37:42.380 rather

00:37:42.740 than

00:37:42.940 a bug

00:37:43.480 but

00:37:44.120 it

00:37:44.260 is

00:37:44.460 striking

00:37:44.960 to

00:37:45.140 me

00:37:45.260 that

00:37:45.440 in

00:37:46.080 terms

00:37:46.340 of

00:37:46.480 my

00:37:46.660 own

00:37:47.060 personal

00:37:48.040 well-being

00:37:48.620 and

00:37:48.920 my

00:37:49.060 own

00:37:49.220 sense

00:37:49.420 of

00:37:49.580 connection

00:37:50.160 to

00:37:50.920 the

00:37:51.120 well-being

00:37:51.620 of

00:37:51.880 others

00:37:52.340 I

00:37:53.020 might

00:37:53.260 actually

00:37:53.740 be

00:37:54.120 more

00:37:54.880 rewarded

00:37:55.420 in

00:37:55.600 fact

00:37:55.780 I

00:37:55.980 think

00:37:56.140 I

00:37:56.280 am

00:37:57.040 almost

00:37:57.500 guaranteed

00:37:58.000 to

00:37:58.480 be

00:37:58.640 more

00:37:58.900 rewarded

00:37:59.400 by

00:38:00.340 simply

00:38:00.940 holding

00:38:01.840 the

00:38:02.060 door

00:38:02.320 open

00:38:02.680 for

00:38:02.880 someone

00:38:03.300 walking

00:38:03.780 into

00:38:04.000 a

00:38:04.160 coffee

00:38:04.460 shop

00:38:04.840 later

00:38:05.320 this

00:38:05.560 afternoon

00:38:06.080 and

00:38:06.280 just

00:38:06.420 having

00:38:06.620 a

00:38:06.880 moment

00:38:07.360 of

00:38:07.540 a

00:38:07.960 smile

00:38:08.400 right

00:38:09.160 like

00:38:09.320 that

00:38:09.540 absolutely

00:38:10.400 trivial

00:38:11.180 moment

00:38:12.000 of

00:38:12.300 good

00:38:12.620 feeling

00:38:13.040 will

00:38:13.960 be

00:38:14.080 more

00:38:14.320 salient

00:38:14.820 to

00:38:15.020 me

00:38:15.320 than

00:38:16.580 the

00:38:17.120 $10,000

00:38:17.720 we're

00:38:18.180 giving

00:38:18.360 today

00:38:18.720 and

00:38:18.980 tomorrow

00:38:19.340 and

00:38:19.520 the

00:38:19.620 next

00:38:19.820 day

00:38:20.060 and

00:38:20.200 onward

00:38:20.700 for

00:38:21.740 months

00:38:22.140 so

00:38:22.800 I'm

00:38:22.900 just

00:38:23.000 wondering

00:38:23.200 what

00:38:23.680 you

00:38:23.800 do

00:38:23.980 with

00:38:24.120 that

00:38:24.260 I

00:38:24.340 mean

00:38:24.420 it's

00:38:24.600 a

00:38:24.740 bug

00:38:25.020 and

00:38:25.300 a

00:38:25.440 feature

00:38:25.820 because

00:38:27.060 I

00:38:27.820 really

00:38:28.040 do

00:38:28.220 think

00:38:28.440 this

00:38:28.580 is

00:38:28.680 how

00:38:29.340 you

00:38:29.540 do

00:38:29.880 the

00:38:30.320 most

00:38:30.560 good

00:38:30.860 you

00:38:31.100 automate

00:38:31.720 these

00:38:32.080 things

00:38:32.400 you

00:38:32.540 decide

00:38:32.920 rationally

00:38:33.660 what

00:38:34.380 you

00:38:34.520 want

00:38:34.720 to

00:38:34.800 do

00:38:35.120 and

00:38:35.640 you

00:38:35.720 put

00:38:41.180 you

00:38:41.340 getting

00:38:41.560 captivated

00:38:42.220 with

00:38:42.380 some

00:38:42.520 other

00:38:42.680 bright

00:38:43.000 shiny

00:38:43.320 object

00:38:43.740 and

00:38:44.000 forgetting

00:38:44.400 about

00:38:45.220 all

00:38:45.400 the

00:38:45.540 good

00:38:45.720 you

00:38:45.840 intended

00:38:46.160 to

00:38:46.360 do

00:38:46.600 but

00:38:47.580 I

00:38:48.060 do

00:38:48.340 hold

00:38:48.640 out

00:38:48.860 some

00:38:49.140 hope

00:38:49.520 that

00:38:49.940 we

00:38:50.720 can

00:38:50.940 actually

00:38:51.580 draw

00:38:52.820 our

00:38:53.280 feelings

00:38:53.940 of

00:38:54.280 well-being

00:38:55.320 more

00:38:56.520 and more

00:38:56.860 directly

00:38:57.480 from the

00:38:58.540 actual

00:38:59.020 good

00:38:59.520 we're

00:38:59.980 accomplishing

00:39:00.560 in the

00:39:01.260 world

00:39:01.520 and I

00:39:01.940 just

00:39:02.220 think

00:39:02.440 there's

00:39:02.800 more

00:39:03.820 to

00:39:04.040 think

00:39:04.260 about

00:39:04.580 on

00:39:05.220 the

00:39:05.340 front

00:39:05.520 of

00:39:05.660 how

00:39:06.280 to

00:39:06.440 accomplish

00:39:06.820 that

00:39:07.140 yeah

00:39:08.260 you're

00:39:08.800 exactly

00:39:09.160 right

00:39:09.500 and

00:39:10.080 it's

00:39:10.720 an old

00:39:11.000 chestnut

00:39:11.440 but

00:39:11.660 it's

00:39:11.880 true

00:39:12.220 that

00:39:13.100 our

00:39:14.300 psychology

00:39:14.980 human

00:39:15.360 psychology

00:39:15.940 was

00:39:17.260 did

00:39:17.520 not

00:39:17.740 evolve

00:39:18.320 to

00:39:18.960 respond

00:39:19.400 to

00:39:19.700 the

00:39:19.820 modern

00:39:20.020 world

00:39:20.440 it

00:39:21.100 evolved

00:39:21.540 for

00:39:21.700 the

00:39:21.800 ancestral

00:39:22.200 environment

00:39:22.860 our

00:39:23.520 community

00:39:24.060 the

00:39:25.100 people

00:39:25.900 that we

00:39:26.200 could

00:39:26.340 affect

00:39:26.780 amounted

00:39:28.040 to

00:39:28.240 the

00:39:28.500 dozens

00:39:28.980 of

00:39:29.200 people

00:39:29.440 perhaps

00:39:29.880 certainly

00:39:30.780 the

00:39:31.000 idea

00:39:31.280 that

00:39:31.460 you

00:39:31.560 could

00:39:31.700 impact

00:39:32.060 someone

00:39:32.340 on

00:39:32.560 the

00:39:32.660 other

00:39:32.800 side

00:39:33.040 of

00:39:33.140 the

00:39:33.240 world

00:39:33.560 or

00:39:34.360 in

00:39:34.760 generations

00:39:35.160 to

00:39:35.440 come

00:39:35.660 that

00:39:36.240 was

00:39:36.360 not

00:39:36.620 true

00:39:36.840 in

00:39:36.960 the

00:39:37.040 way

00:39:37.180 it's

00:39:37.340 true

00:39:37.500 today

00:39:37.820 and

00:39:38.820 so

00:39:40.720 there's

00:39:51.840 this

00:39:52.020 project

00:39:52.520 that

00:39:52.880 effective

00:39:53.760 altruism

00:39:54.240 as a

00:39:54.540 community

00:39:54.940 has

00:39:55.240 tried

00:39:55.480 to

00:39:55.640 embark

00:39:55.920 on

00:39:56.140 to

00:39:56.280 some

00:39:56.480 extent

00:39:56.860 which

00:39:57.680 is

00:39:57.840 just

00:39:58.040 trying

00:39:58.260 to

00:39:58.420 align

00:39:58.740 those

00:39:58.980 two

00:39:59.180 things

00:39:59.500 a

00:39:59.660 little

00:39:59.780 bit

00:39:59.980 better

00:40:00.280 and

00:40:01.400 it's

00:40:01.580 tough

00:40:01.860 because

00:40:02.160 we're

00:40:02.380 not

00:40:02.980 fundamentally

00:40:03.540 aligned

00:40:03.980 but

00:40:04.980 the

00:40:05.340 ideal

00:40:05.700 circumstance

00:40:06.240 is

00:40:06.800 where

00:40:07.180 you

00:40:07.840 are

00:40:08.040 part

00:40:08.340 of

00:40:08.500 a

00:40:08.620 community

00:40:09.000 where

00:40:09.680 you

00:40:09.860 can

00:40:10.080 get

00:40:10.400 reward

00:40:11.080 and

00:40:11.740 support

00:40:12.240 and

00:40:12.540 reassurance

00:40:13.220 for

00:40:13.940 doing

00:40:14.160 the

00:40:14.360 thing

00:40:14.600 that

00:40:14.880 actually

00:40:15.320 helps

00:40:15.640 other

00:40:15.840 people

00:40:16.080 the

00:40:16.260 most

00:40:16.580 rather

00:40:17.300 than

00:40:17.520 the

00:40:17.640 one

00:40:17.860 where

00:40:18.200 you

00:40:18.680 get

00:40:18.920 that

00:40:19.100 immediate

00:40:19.480 warm

00:40:20.060 glow

00:40:20.400 and

00:40:21.320 that's

00:40:21.520 not

00:40:21.660 to

00:40:21.800 say

00:40:21.940 you

00:40:22.080 shouldn't

00:40:22.320 do

00:40:22.440 those

00:40:22.660 things

00:40:22.920 too

00:40:23.160 I

00:40:23.780 certainly

00:40:24.060 do

00:40:24.380 and

00:40:24.900 I

00:40:25.340 think

00:40:25.480 it's

00:40:25.600 part

00:40:25.800 of

00:40:25.980 living

00:40:26.240 a

00:40:26.400 good

00:40:26.600 well

00:40:27.220 rounded

00:40:27.440 life

00:40:27.860 but

00:40:28.960 it's

00:40:30.160 just

00:40:30.380 a

00:40:30.580 fact

00:40:30.900 that

00:40:31.180 there

00:40:31.360 are

00:40:31.460 people

00:40:31.760 in

00:40:33.040 very

00:40:33.920 poor

00:40:34.280 countries

00:40:34.840 who

00:40:35.420 are

00:40:36.360 dying

00:40:36.680 of

00:40:36.840 easily

00:40:37.060 preventable

00:40:40.400 there are

00:40:41.080 animals

00:40:41.400 suffering

00:40:41.780 greatly

00:40:42.180 on

00:40:42.360 factory

00:40:42.640 farms

00:40:43.020 we

00:40:43.220 can

00:40:43.380 take

00:40:43.580 actions

00:40:43.980 to

00:40:44.180 alleviate

00:40:44.500 that

00:40:44.760 suffering

00:40:45.100 there

00:40:45.740 are

00:40:45.900 risks

00:40:46.260 that

00:40:46.520 are

00:40:46.800 maybe

00:40:47.440 going

00:40:47.660 to

00:40:47.740 affect

00:40:47.980 the

00:40:48.140 entire

00:40:48.440 fate

00:40:48.700 of

00:40:48.820 the

00:40:48.900 planet

00:40:49.160 as

00:40:49.920 well

00:40:50.100 as 0.99

00:40:50.400 killing

00:40:51.100 billions

00:40:51.420 of

00:40:51.600 people

00:40:51.780 in

00:40:51.900 the

00:40:52.000 present

00:40:52.200 generation

00:40:52.700 ah

00:40:53.860 like

00:40:54.180 that

00:40:54.360 is

00:40:54.480 not

00:40:54.680 something

00:40:55.100 that

00:40:55.320 my

00:40:55.500 monkey 0.72

00:40:55.780 brain 0.99

00:40:56.060 is

00:40:56.340 equipped

00:40:57.580 to

00:40:57.860 deal

00:40:58.080 with

00:40:58.420 and

00:40:59.100 so

00:40:59.560 you

00:41:00.320 know

00:41:00.440 we're

00:41:00.740 just

00:41:01.040 we've

00:41:01.380 got to

00:41:01.600 try

00:41:01.800 as

00:41:01.980 best

00:41:02.140 we

00:41:02.280 can

00:41:02.560 and

00:41:03.280 that's

00:41:03.500 something

00:41:03.780 at least

00:41:04.080 for me

00:41:04.440 where

00:41:04.780 having

00:41:05.500 a

00:41:05.660 community

00:41:05.920 of

00:41:06.180 people

00:41:06.440 who

00:41:06.680 share

00:41:07.000 this

00:41:07.380 idea

00:41:08.160 who

00:41:08.360 I

00:41:08.460 can

00:41:08.600 talk

00:41:08.920 these

00:41:09.160 ideas

00:41:09.660 through

00:41:09.920 with

00:41:10.240 and

00:41:11.200 who

00:41:12.180 can

00:41:12.540 if

00:41:12.740 needed

00:41:13.040 if

00:41:13.760 I

00:41:13.860 find

00:41:14.060 these

00:41:14.240 things

00:41:14.480 hard

00:41:14.820 to

00:41:15.020 provide

00:41:15.320 support

00:41:16.340 and

00:41:16.460 reassurance

00:41:17.060 that's

00:41:18.140 at least

00:41:18.360 a

00:41:18.540 partial

00:41:18.880 solution

00:41:19.320 to

00:41:19.520 this

00:41:19.680 problem

00:41:20.000 to

00:41:20.320 get

00:41:20.940 my

00:41:21.180 monkey 0.72

00:41:21.480 brain 0.97

00:41:21.820 to

00:41:22.160 care

00:41:23.000 more

00:41:23.340 about

00:41:23.620 the

00:41:23.800 things

00:41:24.040 that

00:41:24.220 really

00:41:24.420 matter

00:41:24.740 well

00:41:25.820 so

00:41:26.200 are

00:41:26.520 there

00:41:26.660 any

00:41:26.860 other

00:41:27.100 problems

00:41:27.660 that

00:41:28.420 have

00:41:28.620 been

00:41:28.960 that

00:41:29.400 you've

00:41:29.720 noticed

00:41:30.120 or

00:41:33.780 you

00:41:34.020 think

00:41:34.440 we

00:41:34.560 should

00:41:34.700 touch

00:41:34.940 on

00:41:35.120 before

00:41:35.320 we

00:41:35.560 jump

00:41:36.000 into

00:41:36.140 the

00:41:36.260 book

00:41:36.460 and

00:41:36.660 this

00:41:37.380 discussion

00:41:37.840 of

00:41:38.180 long

00:41:39.100 termism

00:41:39.580 and

00:41:39.900 existential

00:41:40.260 risk

00:41:40.660 sure

00:41:41.480 I

00:41:41.700 think

00:41:41.980 the

00:41:42.400 number

00:41:43.400 one

00:41:43.720 thing

00:41:44.100 that

00:41:44.720 is

00:41:45.740 in

00:41:46.000 some

00:41:46.260 sense

00:41:46.560 a

00:41:46.680 problem

00:41:46.980 but

00:41:47.360 I

00:41:47.540 think

00:41:47.820 is

00:41:48.340 just

00:41:48.580 kind

00:41:48.780 of

00:41:48.880 where

00:41:49.060 the

00:41:49.200 debate

00:41:49.440 should

00:41:49.660 be

00:41:49.920 is

00:41:50.700 just

00:41:50.860 what

00:41:51.080 follows

00:41:51.500 long

00:41:51.880 termism

00:41:52.360 where

00:41:53.440 the

00:41:54.240 issue

00:41:54.600 the

00:41:54.920 thing

00:41:55.160 the

00:41:55.360 thoughts

00:41:55.700 that

00:41:55.920 I

00:41:56.100 want

00:41:56.380 to

00:41:56.560 promote

00:41:57.020 and

00:41:57.780 get

00:41:57.940 out

00:41:58.120 into

00:41:58.300 the

00:41:58.440 world

00:41:58.760 are

00:41:59.520 that

00:41:59.660 future

00:42:00.620 people

00:42:00.940 count

00:42:01.380 there

00:42:02.080 could

00:42:02.200 be

00:42:02.320 enormous

00:42:02.620 numbers

00:42:02.980 of

00:42:03.200 them

00:42:03.380 and

00:42:03.680 we

00:42:03.880 really

00:42:04.260 can

00:42:04.800 and

00:42:05.380 in

00:42:05.560 fact

00:42:05.780 are

00:42:06.140 impacting

00:42:06.660 how

00:42:06.900 their

00:42:07.080 lives

00:42:07.340 go

00:42:07.600 and

00:42:08.780 then

00:42:08.940 there's

00:42:09.180 the

00:42:09.320 second

00:42:09.680 question

00:42:10.200 of

00:42:10.900 well

00:42:11.600 what

00:42:11.760 do

00:42:11.880 we

00:42:11.960 do

00:42:12.140 about

00:42:12.380 that

00:42:12.620 what's

00:42:13.200 the

00:42:13.320 top

00:42:13.560 priorities

00:42:14.100 for

00:42:14.560 the

00:42:14.660 world

00:42:14.900 today

00:42:15.240 is

00:42:16.260 that

00:42:16.640 the

00:42:16.880 standard

00:42:17.180 environmentalist

00:42:17.980 answer

00:42:18.320 of

00:42:18.540 mitigate

00:42:18.800 climate

00:42:19.180 change

00:42:19.680 reduce

00:42:20.280 resource

00:42:20.640 depletion

00:42:21.160 reduce

00:42:22.120 species

00:42:22.480 loss

00:42:22.900 is it

00:42:24.040 the

00:42:24.280 classic

00:42:24.880 existential

00:42:25.740 risk

00:42:26.100 answer

00:42:26.560 of

00:42:27.240 reduce

00:42:28.040 the risk

00:42:28.440 of

00:42:28.580 misaligned

00:42:29.000 AI

00:42:29.460 reduce

00:42:29.940 the risk

00:42:30.300 of a

00:42:30.520 worst

00:42:30.700 case

00:42:30.920 pandemic

00:42:31.380 is it

00:42:32.840 the idea

00:42:33.580 of just

00:42:33.900 promoting

00:42:34.540 better

00:42:34.840 values

00:42:35.500 is it

00:42:36.380 something

00:42:36.700 that I

00:42:37.020 think

00:42:37.180 you're

00:42:37.400 sympathetic

00:42:37.720 to

00:42:38.100 and

00:42:38.520 others

00:42:39.080 like

00:42:39.260 Tyler

00:42:39.460 Cohen

00:42:39.780 or

00:42:39.900 Patrick

00:42:40.120 Collison

00:42:40.520 are

00:42:41.160 sympathetic

00:42:41.460 to

00:42:41.760 which

00:42:42.020 is

00:42:42.220 just

00:42:42.820 generally

00:42:43.400 make

00:42:43.760 the

00:42:43.920 world

00:42:44.320 saner

00:42:44.880 and

00:42:45.780 more

00:42:46.040 well

00:42:46.280 functioning

00:42:46.660 because

00:42:47.340 you know

00:42:47.780 predicting

00:42:48.120 the future

00:42:48.560 is so

00:42:48.860 hard

00:42:49.220 or is

00:42:50.260 it

00:42:50.380 perhaps

00:42:50.700 about

00:42:51.060 just

00:42:51.800 trying

00:42:52.060 to put

00:42:52.360 the

00:42:52.600 next

00:42:52.920 generation

00:42:53.380 into

00:42:54.100 a

00:42:54.280 situation

00:42:54.680 such

00:42:54.960 that

00:42:55.100 they

00:42:55.360 can

00:42:55.540 make

00:42:55.740 a

00:42:55.860 better

00:42:56.060 and

00:42:56.220 more

00:42:56.380 informed

00:42:56.660 decision

00:42:57.060 and

00:42:57.720 have

00:42:57.880 at

00:42:58.080 least

00:42:58.200 the

00:42:58.360 option

00:42:58.700 to

00:42:59.560 decide

00:43:00.600 how

00:43:01.000 their

00:43:01.340 future

00:43:01.960 will

00:43:02.160 go

00:43:02.420 these

00:43:03.240 are

00:43:03.360 extremely

00:43:03.960 hard

00:43:04.300 questions

00:43:04.700 and

00:43:05.940 I

00:43:07.120 actively

00:43:07.620 want

00:43:07.960 to see

00:43:08.420 an

00:43:08.700 enormous

00:43:09.020 amount

00:43:09.340 of

00:43:09.500 debate

00:43:09.780 on

00:43:10.000 what

00:43:10.140 follows

00:43:10.460 from

00:43:10.660 that

00:43:10.960 perhaps

00:43:12.060 a

00:43:12.740 thousand

00:43:13.020 times

00:43:13.440 as

00:43:13.640 much

00:43:13.860 work

00:43:14.260 as

00:43:14.800 has

00:43:14.940 gone

00:43:15.100 into

00:43:15.340 it

00:43:15.500 I

00:43:15.660 would

00:43:15.780 love

00:43:15.940 to

00:43:16.080 see

00:43:16.340 discussing

00:43:17.420 these

00:43:17.700 issues

00:43:18.060 and

00:43:18.720 there's

00:43:19.000 an

00:43:19.200 enormous

00:43:19.600 amount

00:43:20.600 to say

00:43:22.320 and

00:43:23.320 so

00:43:23.560 that's

00:43:23.860 where

00:43:24.200 I

00:43:24.960 think

00:43:25.140 the

00:43:25.300 real

00:43:26.180 meat

00:43:26.480 of

00:43:26.620 debate

00:43:26.920 lies

00:43:27.360 okay

00:43:28.360 so

00:43:28.540 let's

00:43:28.840 talk

00:43:29.100 about

00:43:29.280 the

00:43:29.420 book

00:43:29.720 because

00:43:30.360 you

00:43:30.900 spoke

00:43:31.200 a couple

00:43:31.460 of

00:43:31.560 minutes

00:43:31.880 ago

00:43:32.540 about

00:43:32.780 how

00:43:33.240 we

00:43:34.320 are

00:43:34.460 misaligned

00:43:35.200 in

00:43:35.900 psychological

00:43:36.700 terms

00:43:38.060 by virtue

00:43:38.840 of

00:43:39.500 imperfect

00:43:40.000 evolution

00:43:40.560 to

00:43:41.600 think

00:43:42.000 about

00:43:42.400 problems

00:43:42.980 at

00:43:43.180 scale

00:43:43.640 and

00:43:44.420 that

00:43:44.880 is

00:43:45.160 certainly

00:43:45.380 true

00:43:45.860 but

00:43:46.460 we

00:43:46.680 have

00:43:47.000 made

00:43:47.440 impressive

00:43:48.240 progress

00:43:49.140 with

00:43:50.120 respect

00:43:50.520 to

00:43:51.460 scaling

00:43:52.820 our

00:43:53.100 concern

00:43:53.560 about

00:43:54.000 our

00:43:54.420 fellow

00:43:54.640 human

00:43:54.920 beings

00:43:55.460 over

00:43:56.160 physical

00:43:56.760 distance

00:43:57.380 distance

00:43:57.900 with

00:43:58.160 respect

00:43:58.520 to

00:43:58.740 space

00:43:59.300 we

00:44:00.020 kind

00:44:00.440 of

00:44:00.520 understand

00:44:01.140 ethically

00:44:02.040 now

00:44:02.500 Peter Singer

00:44:03.720 has done a lot

00:44:04.240 of work

00:44:04.680 on this

00:44:05.620 topic

00:44:06.080 urging us

00:44:06.940 to expand

00:44:07.460 the circle

00:44:07.940 of our

00:44:08.220 moral

00:44:08.660 concern

00:44:09.140 and

00:44:10.220 I think

00:44:11.180 something like

00:44:12.440 100%

00:44:13.160 of the

00:44:13.480 people

00:44:13.880 listening

00:44:14.700 to us

00:44:15.260 will

00:44:16.020 understand

00:44:16.400 that

00:44:16.860 you

00:44:17.040 can't

00:44:18.020 be a

00:44:18.320 good

00:44:18.500 person

00:44:19.080 and

00:44:19.700 say

00:44:20.140 that

00:44:20.540 you

00:44:20.780 only

00:44:21.280 care

00:44:21.720 about

00:44:22.060 people

00:44:22.440 who

00:44:22.660 live

00:44:22.960 within

00:44:23.300 a

00:44:23.440 thousand

00:44:23.740 miles

00:44:24.140 of

00:44:24.360 your

00:44:24.560 home

00:44:25.060 right

00:44:25.520 I mean

00:44:25.660 that's

00:44:25.860 just

00:44:25.980 not

00:44:26.340 that's

00:44:26.980 just

00:44:27.100 not

00:44:27.280 compatible

00:44:27.720 with

00:44:28.260 life

00:44:28.760 in

00:44:28.880 the

00:44:28.980 21st

00:44:29.380 century

00:44:29.700 although

00:44:30.620 there's

00:44:31.720 some

00:44:31.960 discounting

00:44:32.600 function

00:44:33.060 no doubt

00:44:33.720 and it

00:44:34.060 just

00:44:34.360 I think

00:44:34.920 normal

00:44:35.280 psychology

00:44:35.880 would cause

00:44:37.060 us to

00:44:37.380 care

00:44:37.680 more

00:44:38.180 about

00:44:38.640 family

00:44:39.480 and

00:44:39.700 friends

00:44:40.180 than

00:44:41.420 about

00:44:41.760 perfect

00:44:42.420 strangers

00:44:42.940 and

00:44:43.240 certainly

00:44:43.460 perfect

00:44:43.780 strangers

00:44:44.280 in

00:44:45.020 faraway

00:44:45.460 cultures

00:44:45.960 for which

00:44:46.840 we have

00:44:47.120 no affinity

00:44:47.700 etc

00:44:48.340 and we

00:44:49.240 can

00:44:49.500 I think

00:44:50.280 we've

00:44:50.440 discussed

00:44:50.780 this

00:44:51.140 in

00:44:51.900 previous

00:44:52.220 conversations

00:44:52.780 just

00:44:53.100 what

00:44:53.480 might

00:44:53.780 be

00:44:54.000 normative

00:44:54.500 there

00:44:54.780 whether

00:44:54.980 we

00:44:55.140 actually

00:44:55.420 would

00:44:55.600 want

00:44:55.920 perfect

00:44:56.940 indifference

00:44:57.960 and dispassion

00:44:58.980 with respect

00:44:59.460 to all

00:45:00.120 those

00:45:00.260 variables

00:45:00.620 or if

00:45:01.100 there's

00:45:01.320 some

00:45:01.700 hierarchy

00:45:02.880 of concern

00:45:03.640 that's

00:45:03.940 still

00:45:04.120 appropriate

00:45:04.580 and

00:45:05.320 I think

00:45:06.420 it probably

00:45:06.880 is

00:45:07.200 but

00:45:07.460 the topic

00:45:08.440 of today's

00:45:09.080 conversation

00:45:09.640 and of

00:45:10.140 your book

00:45:10.680 is

00:45:11.540 just

00:45:12.200 how

00:45:12.740 abysmally

00:45:13.900 we have

00:45:15.520 failed

00:45:16.480 to

00:45:17.360 generate

00:45:18.080 strong

00:45:18.600 intuitions

00:45:19.380 about

00:45:19.860 the

00:45:20.620 moral

00:45:21.180 responsibility

00:45:22.280 we have

00:45:23.560 and the

00:45:23.780 moral

00:45:24.000 opportunity

00:45:24.580 we have

00:45:25.280 to

00:45:25.820 safeguard

00:45:26.380 the

00:45:26.980 future

00:45:27.320 so

00:45:27.640 perhaps

00:45:27.900 you can

00:45:28.220 with that

00:45:28.600 set up

00:45:29.140 you can

00:45:29.520 give me

00:45:29.780 the elevator

00:45:30.720 synopsis

00:45:31.820 of the

00:45:32.600 new book

00:45:33.060 sure

00:45:34.020 so

00:45:34.420 like I

00:45:35.780 said

00:45:35.960 this book

00:45:36.360 is about

00:45:36.780 long-termism

00:45:37.500 about

00:45:38.420 just

00:45:38.780 taking

00:45:39.380 seriously

00:45:39.860 the future

00:45:40.760 that's

00:45:40.980 ahead of

00:45:41.240 us

00:45:41.520 taking

00:45:42.340 seriously

00:45:42.880 the

00:45:43.920 moral value

00:45:44.860 that future

00:45:45.620 generations

00:45:46.120 have

00:45:46.580 and then

00:45:47.320 also

00:45:47.540 taking

00:45:47.800 seriously

00:45:48.160 the fact

00:45:48.640 that

00:45:48.840 what we

00:45:49.580 do

00:45:49.900 as a

00:45:50.760 society

00:45:51.160 really

00:45:51.460 will

00:45:51.780 impact

00:45:52.300 the

00:45:53.020 very

00:45:53.200 long

00:45:53.460 term

00:45:53.700 and

00:45:54.940 I

00:45:55.200 think

00:45:55.360 there

00:45:55.500 are

00:45:55.620 two

00:45:55.980 categories

00:45:56.920 of

00:45:57.200 things

00:45:57.460 that

00:45:57.620 impact

00:45:57.980 the

00:45:58.140 very

00:45:58.300 long

00:45:58.540 term

00:45:58.840 where

00:45:59.960 there's

00:46:01.120 things

00:46:01.500 that

00:46:01.700 could

00:46:01.960 just

00:46:02.820 end

00:46:03.160 civilization

00:46:03.780 altogether

00:46:04.240 and

00:46:05.620 this

00:46:06.140 concern

00:46:06.640 really

00:46:07.080 got on

00:46:07.520 society's

00:46:08.080 radar

00:46:08.320 with the

00:46:09.140 advent

00:46:09.900 of

00:46:10.100 nuclear

00:46:10.420 weapons

00:46:10.820 I think

00:46:12.040 an all-out

00:46:13.220 nuclear war

00:46:13.900 I think

00:46:14.580 unlikely to

00:46:15.840 kill literally

00:46:16.320 everybody 1.00

00:46:16.680 but it

00:46:17.120 could result

00:46:17.620 in

00:46:17.920 hundreds of

00:46:20.300 millions

00:46:20.500 maybe even

00:46:20.940 billions

00:46:21.240 dead

00:46:21.520 unimaginable

00:46:22.500 tragedy

00:46:22.900 which I

00:46:23.540 think

00:46:23.720 would make

00:46:24.040 the world

00:46:24.480 worse

00:46:25.500 not

00:46:25.740 just

00:46:26.640 for

00:46:26.780 those

00:46:26.960 people

00:46:27.180 but

00:46:27.440 for

00:46:27.820 the

00:46:27.960 extremely

00:46:28.820 long

00:46:29.080 time

00:46:29.400 and

00:46:30.040 could

00:46:30.200 result

00:46:30.500 in

00:46:30.640 the

00:46:30.740 collapse

00:46:31.020 of

00:46:31.180 civilization

00:46:31.700 too

00:46:32.120 at the

00:46:33.400 more

00:46:33.560 extreme

00:46:33.920 level

00:46:34.220 there's

00:46:34.700 worries

00:46:35.320 about

00:46:36.180 in

00:46:37.020 particular

00:46:37.540 engineered

00:46:38.060 pandemics

00:46:38.680 and

00:46:39.680 this is a

00:46:40.580 risk

00:46:40.780 that we've

00:46:41.080 been

00:46:41.280 worrying

00:46:41.640 about

00:46:41.860 for

00:46:42.000 many

00:46:42.180 years

00:46:42.480 now

00:46:42.740 where

00:46:43.660 pandemics

00:46:44.580 occur

00:46:44.960 occasionally

00:46:45.480 and are

00:46:46.480 extremely

00:46:46.880 bad

00:46:47.220 and so

00:46:48.620 society

00:46:49.260 doesn't

00:46:49.580 prepare

00:46:49.940 for them

00:46:50.220 in the

00:46:50.400 way

00:46:50.520 they

00:46:50.700 should

00:46:50.920 I

00:46:51.840 think

00:46:52.020 the

00:46:52.280 risk

00:46:52.760 is

00:46:52.880 going to

00:46:53.000 get much

00:46:53.300 worse

00:46:53.600 over

00:46:53.760 time

00:46:54.080 because

00:46:54.880 not only

00:46:55.340 do we

00:46:55.560 have to

00:46:55.820 contend

00:46:56.140 with

00:46:56.380 natural

00:46:56.860 pandemics

00:46:57.400 we will

00:46:58.540 also have

00:46:59.040 to contend

00:46:59.600 with

00:47:00.000 pandemics

00:47:01.360 from viruses

00:47:01.960 that have

00:47:02.480 been enhanced

00:47:03.280 to have

00:47:03.680 more

00:47:03.860 destructive

00:47:04.200 properties

00:47:04.700 or even

00:47:05.480 just

00:47:05.660 created

00:47:06.040 de novo

00:47:06.500 such as

00:47:07.700 in a

00:47:07.860 bioweapons

00:47:08.360 program

00:47:08.800 this is a

00:47:10.020 very scary

00:47:10.500 prospect

00:47:10.920 and

00:47:11.940 current

00:47:12.280 estimates

00:47:12.700 put the

00:47:13.020 risk

00:47:13.280 of

00:47:14.000 all out

00:47:14.780 catastrophe

00:47:15.280 95%

00:47:16.200 data

00:47:16.460 something

00:47:17.040 like

00:47:17.260 1%

00:47:17.760 essentially

00:47:18.220 a second

00:47:19.580 way

00:47:20.180 set of

00:47:21.520 events

00:47:21.860 that could 0.68

00:47:22.140 impact

00:47:22.440 the very

00:47:22.740 long

00:47:23.000 term

00:47:23.260 are

00:47:24.140 things

00:47:24.420 that

00:47:24.680 don't

00:47:25.400 impact

00:47:26.540 the

00:47:27.860 length

00:47:28.120 of

00:47:28.260 civilization

00:47:28.740 that is

00:47:29.120 it wouldn't

00:47:29.820 kill us

00:47:30.220 off 1.00

00:47:30.400 early

00:47:30.740 but does

00:47:31.740 affect the

00:47:32.180 value of

00:47:32.620 that

00:47:32.760 civilization

00:47:33.300 kind of

00:47:33.700 civilization's

00:47:34.260 quality of

00:47:34.800 life as

00:47:35.180 it were

00:47:35.480 and in

00:47:37.200 what we

00:47:37.500 are the

00:47:37.700 future

00:47:38.060 I focus

00:47:39.200 in particular

00:47:39.760 on values

00:47:40.520 where

00:47:41.580 we're used

00:47:42.700 to values

00:47:43.220 changing an

00:47:43.820 enormous amount

00:47:44.420 over time

00:47:45.060 but that's

00:47:45.780 actually

00:47:46.080 something that I

00:47:47.640 think is

00:47:47.920 contingent about

00:47:48.660 our world

00:47:49.140 and I

00:47:49.800 think there

00:47:50.160 are

00:47:51.000 ways

00:47:52.500 especially

00:47:53.000 via

00:47:53.300 technological

00:47:53.820 and political

00:47:54.600 developments

00:47:55.340 that that

00:47:56.140 change could

00:47:56.760 slow

00:47:57.840 and in the

00:47:59.160 worst case

00:47:59.760 our future

00:48:00.760 could be one

00:48:01.460 of perpetual

00:48:02.180 totalitarian

00:48:02.960 dictatorship

00:48:03.540 that would be

00:48:04.440 very scary

00:48:04.900 indeed

00:48:05.240 that would be

00:48:06.120 a loss of

00:48:06.540 almost all

00:48:06.940 value that we

00:48:07.720 could have

00:48:08.140 an existential

00:48:08.940 risk itself

00:48:09.640 even if that

00:48:10.620 civilization were

00:48:11.420 very long

00:48:11.860 lived

00:48:12.140 and so

00:48:12.900 what can

00:48:13.160 we do

00:48:13.460 and things

00:48:15.580 vary in terms

00:48:16.400 of how

00:48:16.780 tractable

00:48:17.320 they are

00:48:17.680 like how

00:48:18.040 much

00:48:18.240 there is

00:48:18.520 actually

00:48:18.800 to do

00:48:19.180 but there

00:48:20.040 are many

00:48:20.380 things I

00:48:20.760 think we

00:48:21.060 can do

00:48:21.400 so on

00:48:22.800 the

00:48:23.100 ensuring

00:48:24.020 we have

00:48:24.360 a future

00:48:24.660 side of

00:48:25.060 things

00:48:25.380 I actually

00:48:26.420 think that

00:48:26.820 there's

00:48:27.080 very concrete

00:48:28.040 actions we

00:48:28.620 can take

00:48:28.980 to reduce

00:48:29.420 the risk

00:48:29.780 of the

00:48:30.000 next

00:48:30.180 pandemic

00:48:30.600 such as

00:48:31.980 technology

00:48:32.540 to monitor

00:48:34.380 wastewater

00:48:34.760 for new

00:48:36.240 pathogens

00:48:36.580 such as

00:48:37.760 a certain

00:48:38.280 there's this

00:48:38.960 new form of

00:48:39.500 lighting called

00:48:40.080 far UVC

00:48:40.820 that I'm

00:48:41.140 extremely

00:48:41.500 excited about

00:48:42.180 if we can

00:48:43.200 get the

00:48:43.440 cost down

00:48:44.020 enough

00:48:44.360 then we

00:48:44.800 can just

00:48:45.560 be sterilizing

00:48:46.440 rooms in

00:48:46.860 an ongoing

00:48:47.320 way in a

00:48:48.380 way that's

00:48:48.940 not harmful

00:48:49.680 for human

00:48:50.340 health or

00:48:51.660 on the

00:48:52.660 values kind

00:48:53.340 of side of

00:48:53.720 things well

00:48:54.540 we can be

00:48:55.040 pushing for

00:48:55.740 people to be

00:48:56.440 more altruistic

00:48:57.560 more reasonable

00:48:58.620 in the way

00:48:59.040 they think

00:48:59.520 about model

00:49:00.980 matters perhaps

00:49:02.120 more impartial

00:49:02.880 to taking

00:49:03.560 seriously the

00:49:04.620 interests of

00:49:05.440 all sentient

00:49:06.580 beings whether

00:49:07.600 they're human

00:49:08.720 or animal

00:49:09.280 or other or

00:49:10.800 whether they're

00:49:11.500 now or in

00:49:12.080 the future

00:49:12.500 and we

00:49:13.440 can be

00:49:13.700 kind of

00:49:14.080 guarding

00:49:14.820 against the

00:49:15.560 lie like

00:49:16.340 certain

00:49:16.700 authoritarian

00:49:18.080 tendencies that

00:49:19.120 I think are

00:49:19.480 very common

00:49:20.060 and we have

00:49:20.980 seen in

00:49:21.340 history over

00:49:21.940 and over

00:49:22.240 again and

00:49:23.140 that I

00:49:23.360 think are

00:49:23.600 quite scary

00:49:24.060 from a

00:49:24.460 long-term

00:49:24.820 perspective

00:49:25.360 and then

00:49:26.300 lastly we

00:49:26.840 can just

00:49:27.180 start

00:49:27.480 reasoning

00:49:27.860 more about

00:49:28.360 this

00:49:28.600 I said

00:49:29.240 earlier

00:49:29.520 that you

00:49:30.080 know I

00:49:30.680 don't know

00:49:31.000 I'm not

00:49:31.260 like super

00:49:31.660 confident about

00:49:32.280 what we

00:49:32.560 should be

00:49:32.780 doing but

00:49:33.460 certainly we

00:49:34.060 can be

00:49:34.440 doing more

00:49:35.520 investigation

00:49:36.060 building a

00:49:36.960 movement that

00:49:37.480 takes

00:49:37.740 seriously

00:49:38.260 oh yeah

00:49:39.240 like there's

00:49:40.840 this enormous

00:49:41.320 potential future

00:49:42.140 ahead of us

00:49:42.660 and we can

00:49:43.600 do an

00:49:44.320 enormous amount

00:49:44.900 of good to

00:49:45.400 make it better

00:49:45.960 yeah I want to

00:49:47.520 talk about value

00:49:48.500 lock-in and some

00:49:49.880 of the issues

00:49:50.580 there but

00:49:51.840 before we get

00:49:53.100 there I think

00:49:53.920 we should linger

00:49:54.580 on what

00:49:56.000 makes thinking

00:49:57.480 about the future

00:49:58.320 so difficult

00:50:00.040 I think you say

00:50:01.380 somewhere in the

00:50:02.000 book that but I

00:50:03.120 mean both with

00:50:03.720 respect to

00:50:04.400 distance in space

00:50:05.900 and distance

00:50:06.380 in time

00:50:07.060 I think you

00:50:08.040 say something

00:50:08.360 like we

00:50:08.700 mistake distance

00:50:10.100 for unreality

00:50:11.300 right like the

00:50:12.280 fact that

00:50:12.760 something is

00:50:13.340 far away from

00:50:14.180 us makes

00:50:15.520 part of our

00:50:16.460 brain suspect

00:50:17.780 that it may

00:50:19.100 not quite

00:50:19.820 exist and

00:50:21.280 this is again

00:50:21.920 I think this

00:50:22.620 has changed

00:50:24.060 fairly categorically

00:50:26.360 with respect to

00:50:27.260 space where you

00:50:28.920 just can't really

00:50:30.340 imagine that the

00:50:31.200 people suffering

00:50:32.200 over in Yemen

00:50:33.380 don't exist

00:50:34.540 but it's much

00:50:36.240 harder to

00:50:36.740 assimilate this

00:50:38.020 new intuition

00:50:38.700 with respect to

00:50:39.420 time because

00:50:40.060 in this case

00:50:41.520 we are talking

00:50:42.160 about people

00:50:42.880 who don't

00:50:44.380 actually exist

00:50:45.340 you know

00:50:45.800 there'll be some

00:50:47.520 number of

00:50:48.380 thousands of

00:50:48.960 people probably

00:50:49.740 you know

00:50:50.200 three to

00:50:51.240 five thousand

00:50:51.840 people or so

00:50:52.600 born over the

00:50:54.480 course of our

00:50:55.200 having this

00:50:55.640 conversation right

00:50:56.720 globally speaking

00:50:57.440 yeah I think

00:50:58.280 the math is

00:50:58.880 somewhere around

00:50:59.640 there and so

00:51:00.520 it's easy to

00:51:01.720 to argue okay

00:51:03.120 these are people

00:51:03.960 who are coming

00:51:04.560 into this world

00:51:05.440 for which they

00:51:06.420 have no

00:51:07.040 responsibility and

00:51:08.420 we you know

00:51:09.360 this the present

00:51:09.900 generation or

00:51:11.000 generations are

00:51:12.540 entirely responsible

00:51:13.680 for the quality of

00:51:15.560 the world they

00:51:16.620 inherit and the

00:51:17.460 quality of the

00:51:18.460 lives they begin

00:51:19.920 to lead and I

00:51:22.320 would say we

00:51:22.800 don't you know

00:51:24.000 collectively we

00:51:24.660 don't think nearly

00:51:25.740 enough about that

00:51:27.120 responsibility but

00:51:28.780 when you're talking

00:51:29.540 about people who

00:51:30.380 may or may not

00:51:32.100 be born in

00:51:33.660 some distant

00:51:34.780 future we

00:51:36.200 don't think about

00:51:36.700 these people at

00:51:37.280 all and and I

00:51:38.180 would I suspect

00:51:39.300 that most people

00:51:40.620 wouldn't see any

00:51:42.000 problem with that

00:51:43.080 because it's just

00:51:43.900 when you think

00:51:45.040 about what a

00:51:46.100 crime it would be

00:51:47.060 for us to

00:51:47.640 foreclose the

00:51:48.420 future in some

00:51:49.100 way you know if

00:51:49.700 we all die in

00:51:50.360 our sleep tonight

00:51:51.120 painlessly and

00:51:52.780 there is no human

00:51:53.560 future what's bad

00:51:55.500 about that well

00:51:56.440 you have to tell

00:51:57.300 yourself a story

00:51:57.920 about all the

00:51:58.520 unrealized joy and

00:52:00.300 happiness and

00:52:00.920 creativity that

00:52:02.280 exists in

00:52:03.600 potentia on that

00:52:05.080 side of the

00:52:05.540 ledger but there's

00:52:06.840 no there are no

00:52:07.620 victims deprived of

00:52:09.380 all of that

00:52:09.840 goodness because they

00:52:11.240 don't exist right

00:52:12.140 so if this is the

00:52:13.740 very essence of a

00:52:14.560 victimless crime and

00:52:15.980 I do I think you

00:52:16.660 and I have touched

00:52:17.620 that issue in a

00:52:18.240 previous conversation

00:52:19.080 but it's just hard

00:52:20.900 to think about the

00:52:22.500 far future much

00:52:24.240 less prioritize it

00:52:25.420 and I'm just

00:52:26.760 wondering if

00:52:27.140 there's something

00:52:27.440 we can do to

00:52:28.460 shore up our

00:52:29.700 intuitions here

00:52:30.560 I guess the

00:52:31.780 first point I

00:52:32.380 would make is

00:52:32.840 that the only

00:52:33.820 reason why these

00:52:35.840 people are

00:52:36.260 hypothetical is

00:52:38.100 because you the

00:52:39.400 listener are

00:52:40.160 holding out some

00:52:41.440 possibility that

00:52:43.120 they may not

00:52:44.380 exist when you

00:52:45.680 ask yourself what

00:52:46.460 would cause

00:52:47.300 subsequent future

00:52:48.460 generations of

00:52:49.360 people not to

00:52:50.560 exist perhaps

00:52:51.840 there's some

00:52:52.340 other version but

00:52:53.260 you know the

00:52:53.820 only thing I can

00:52:54.420 imagine is some

00:52:55.500 catastrophe

00:52:56.600 of the sort

00:52:57.260 that you have

00:52:58.240 begun sketching

00:52:59.040 out right

00:52:59.460 some pandemic

00:53:00.540 some asteroid

00:53:01.700 impact some

00:53:02.440 nuclear war some

00:53:03.480 combination of

00:53:04.340 those things that

00:53:06.000 destroy everything

00:53:07.620 for everyone which

00:53:08.560 is to say some

00:53:09.300 absolutely horrific

00:53:11.460 cataclysm which we

00:53:13.840 should be highly

00:53:14.400 motivated to avoid

00:53:15.540 right so so if we

00:53:16.980 successfully avoid

00:53:18.060 the worst possible

00:53:19.880 outcome for

00:53:21.040 ourselves and our

00:53:21.980 children and our

00:53:22.760 grandchildren the

00:53:23.940 future people we're

00:53:24.760 talking about are

00:53:25.840 guaranteed to exist

00:53:27.040 it's only time

00:53:28.360 shifted it's not in

00:53:30.300 fact in question and

00:53:32.360 the only thing that

00:53:32.860 would put it in

00:53:33.380 question is some

00:53:34.740 horrific outcome that

00:53:35.820 we are responsible for

00:53:38.040 foreseeing and

00:53:39.500 avoiding and really

00:53:40.680 no one there's no one

00:53:41.440 else to do the job

00:53:42.460 absolutely I mean so

00:53:44.880 yeah there's this

00:53:45.900 general issue where

00:53:46.940 why do we care about

00:53:48.900 people on the other

00:53:49.980 side of the planet

00:53:50.780 much more now than we

00:53:52.300 did let's say a hundred

00:53:53.280 years ago and it's

00:53:54.800 clear that a big part

00:53:55.700 of it is that now we

00:53:56.640 can see people on the

00:53:57.620 other side of the

00:53:58.180 world we get

00:53:58.880 information about them

00:53:59.840 in a way that we

00:54:00.840 never used to where

00:54:02.260 literally there can be

00:54:03.360 a live stream video of

00:54:04.840 someone in Nigeria or

00:54:07.480 Pakistan or India or 0.78

00:54:08.820 any other country

00:54:09.940 around the world so

00:54:11.520 that you know those

00:54:12.960 people's lives become

00:54:14.020 vivid to us in a way

00:54:15.680 that's just not

00:54:16.240 possible for future

00:54:16.980 generations and that

00:54:17.860 makes this challenge

00:54:18.700 just so deep in fact to

00:54:20.760 get people to care if

00:54:22.340 there were news from

00:54:23.540 the future you know

00:54:24.780 the newspaper of

00:54:25.920 tomorrow I think we

00:54:27.180 wouldn't be in such a

00:54:27.920 bad state you know we

00:54:29.420 could report on what

00:54:30.380 the world is like in

00:54:31.280 the year 2100 or 2200

00:54:34.560 and I think people

00:54:36.900 would care but that's

00:54:38.320 not the news we get

00:54:39.140 it's all abstract and

00:54:40.800 that and that's really

00:54:41.500 tough the thing I'll say

00:54:43.460 is so you know you

00:54:44.700 mentioned oh the idea

00:54:45.940 of some catastrophe

00:54:48.140 just painlessly kills

00:54:49.980 all of us in our 0.97

00:54:50.820 sleep and you know

00:54:52.120 what would that be a

00:54:53.100 tragedy and I mean I

00:54:54.820 think yes and I argue

00:54:56.600 in the book at length

00:54:58.060 that it would be a

00:54:58.880 tragedy both because I

00:55:00.300 think that we should

00:55:01.540 expect the future to be

00:55:02.640 on balance good and

00:55:04.060 secondly because I

00:55:04.860 think the loss of

00:55:06.080 lives at least

00:55:07.820 sufficiently good and

00:55:09.460 certainly the loss of

00:55:10.680 all the moral and

00:55:12.560 artistic and

00:55:13.220 technological progress

00:55:14.500 that we might see in

00:55:15.300 the future that those

00:55:16.760 are great losses but I

00:55:19.000 want to emphasize the

00:55:19.900 case for long-termism

00:55:20.800 does not rely on that

00:55:21.840 you could think that

00:55:23.500 everyone dying

00:55:24.700 painlessly in their

00:55:25.460 sleep would not be a

00:55:26.860 bad thing morally

00:55:27.720 speaking nonetheless a

00:55:30.560 future of perpetual

00:55:31.560 totalitarian

00:55:32.240 dictatorship really would 0.95

00:55:33.440 be compared to a

00:55:35.000 wonderful free thriving

00:55:36.720 and liberal future

00:55:38.200 where different people

00:55:39.500 can pursue their

00:55:40.420 visions of the good

00:55:41.360 and we've eradicated

00:55:42.740 issues that plague

00:55:43.920 today like injustice

00:55:45.140 and poverty I just

00:55:47.200 think like you

00:55:48.420 really don't need to

00:55:49.280 engage in much

00:55:49.940 moral philosophy to

00:55:50.880 say that if we have a

00:55:52.340 choice between one or

00:55:53.180 the other then it's

00:55:54.600 better and much better

00:55:55.700 to think about the

00:55:57.080 thriving flourishing

00:55:57.920 future than this

00:55:59.100 dystopian one

00:55:59.840 yeah no that's a

00:56:01.000 great point the forget

00:56:02.640 about the thought

00:56:03.240 experiments it should be

00:56:04.400 pretty easy to

00:56:05.540 acknowledge that

00:56:06.500 there's a difference

00:56:07.700 between having to live

00:56:08.840 under the thousand

00:56:09.660 year Reich and living

00:56:11.760 under some version of

00:56:13.640 the best possible

00:56:15.220 solution to the

00:56:17.100 problem of global

00:56:18.140 civilization is there

00:56:19.620 anything more to say

00:56:21.420 about it just in the

00:56:22.760 abstract about the

00:56:23.980 significance of the

00:56:25.480 future I mean I guess

00:56:26.780 I'm I'm wondering if

00:56:28.160 you've thought at all

00:56:28.860 about how just because

00:56:30.860 again this is it's

00:56:32.240 surprising that I think

00:56:33.560 we think about this

00:56:34.840 almost not at all and

00:56:36.900 yet our assumptions

00:56:38.420 about it do a lot of

00:56:40.180 psychological work for

00:56:41.480 us I mean like I

00:56:42.460 really you know I

00:56:44.040 mean this is this is

00:56:44.780 my job to have

00:56:45.600 conversations like this

00:56:46.640 and I'm surprised at

00:56:48.880 how little I think

00:56:50.600 about the far future

00:56:51.940 right in any kind of

00:56:53.620 significant way and

00:56:55.140 yet if I imagine how

00:56:57.000 I would feel if I

00:56:58.740 knew that it wouldn't

00:57:00.900 exist right I mean if

00:57:02.360 we just figured out

00:57:03.180 that oh you actually

00:57:04.100 the whole story ends

00:57:06.840 in 80 years right so

00:57:09.380 we're unlikely to be

00:57:11.040 around to suffer much

00:57:12.460 or we're going to be

00:57:13.560 out out of the game

00:57:15.100 pretty soon and you

00:57:17.540 know people have

00:57:18.120 haven't had kids don't

00:57:19.800 need to worry about

00:57:20.380 them and so just the

00:57:21.540 basic picture is just

00:57:22.480 the career of the

00:57:23.740 species is radically

00:57:25.880 foreclosed at some

00:57:27.760 point inside of a

00:57:28.580 century what would

00:57:30.100 that do to everything

00:57:32.800 and how would that

00:57:35.100 sap the meaning from

00:57:37.900 what we do and it's

00:57:39.700 just it's an interesting

00:57:40.640 question which I haven't

00:57:41.440 thought much about but

00:57:42.240 do you have any

00:57:42.800 intuitions about that

00:57:44.100 it's a great thought

00:57:45.240 experiment and it's

00:57:46.600 represented in this

00:57:47.580 film children of men

00:57:48.660 where the global

00:57:49.920 population becomes

00:57:50.820 sterile and it's

00:57:52.660 discussed at length in

00:57:53.760 the writings of

00:57:55.640 philosopher Samuel

00:57:56.980 Scheffler in a book

00:57:58.000 called death and the

00:57:58.680 afterlife and he argues

00:58:01.040 that if it were the

00:58:03.240 case that just yeah

00:58:04.400 there's no world at all

00:58:05.620 let's say past our

00:58:06.620 generation or even our

00:58:07.820 children's generation

00:58:08.600 it would sap enormous

00:58:10.580 amounts of in fact

00:58:12.860 perhaps most meaning

00:58:13.860 from our lives this

00:58:15.680 is actually a point

00:58:16.380 made by John Stuart

00:58:17.680 Mill in the end of the

00:58:18.660 19th century where he

00:58:21.280 briefly had this phase

00:58:22.160 of being concerned by

00:58:23.080 future generations

00:58:23.940 arguing actually that

00:58:25.320 means they should be

00:58:26.020 keeping coal in the

00:58:26.760 ground which I think

00:58:28.140 wasn't quite the right

00:58:28.960 you know it's maybe

00:58:30.520 made sense given their

00:58:31.460 views at the time or

00:58:32.220 something that their

00:58:33.280 views were incorrect but

00:58:34.940 he has this beautiful

00:58:35.560 speech to parliament

00:58:36.340 and he has this

00:58:38.340 wonderful line why

00:58:39.460 should we care about

00:58:40.160 posterity after all

00:58:41.500 what has posterity ever

00:58:42.480 done for us and he

00:58:44.320 goes on to argue that

00:58:45.160 actually like posterity

00:58:46.120 has done an enormous

00:58:47.120 amount for us because

00:58:48.280 it gives our projects

00:58:49.540 meaning where you know

00:58:51.400 we build we plant

00:58:52.440 trees that future

00:58:54.360 generations will sit

00:58:55.760 under we build

00:58:56.820 cathedrals that are

00:58:58.340 like a testament to our

00:58:59.600 time and to can be

00:59:01.400 recognized by future

00:59:02.340 generations when we

00:59:03.760 engage in activities

00:59:04.940 like moral progress

00:59:06.080 and political progress

00:59:07.040 and scientific and

00:59:07.920 technological progress

00:59:08.980 part of how we have

00:59:11.680 meaning in doing those

00:59:13.140 things is because it's

00:59:14.700 like we're part of this

00:59:15.560 grand relay base where

00:59:17.320 we have taken the

00:59:18.060 baton from previous

00:59:20.040 generations the things

00:59:21.760 they did badly and the

00:59:22.700 things they did well

00:59:23.440 and we can hand that

00:59:24.800 baton on to future

00:59:25.720 generations making the

00:59:26.760 world a little bit

00:59:27.340 better giving them like

00:59:29.040 you know a little bit

00:59:30.200 of a higher platform to

00:59:31.160 stand on and yeah I

00:59:34.100 think this is just a

00:59:34.780 very widely shared

00:59:35.720 view and I think it

00:59:37.260 kind of resonates with

00:59:38.020 me intuitively too

00:59:39.000 where if I found out

00:59:40.600 that everything was

00:59:42.060 going to end in 50

00:59:42.940 years I wouldn't be

00:59:44.540 like oh well I guess

00:59:45.480 I'll just you know

00:59:46.140 focus on issues that

00:59:47.960 just concern the near

00:59:49.160 term then I would you

00:59:50.740 know I would be

00:59:51.340 devastated even if that

00:59:52.800 didn't personally affect

00:59:54.080 anyone I knew or you

00:59:56.640 know perhaps it's not

00:59:57.220 50 years perhaps it's

00:59:58.140 200 years nonetheless I

01:00:00.040 would still I would be

01:00:00.780 absolutely gutted.

01:00:01.520 Yeah it's really

01:00:03.280 interesting because it's

01:00:04.160 not something that I've

01:00:06.700 ever been aware of but

01:00:08.420 it is a an integral

01:00:10.020 piece of how I think

01:00:11.460 about what we're doing

01:00:13.080 here which is when you

01:00:14.360 think about human

01:00:15.320 progress you think about

01:00:16.320 all the good things we

01:00:17.580 do and all the bad

01:00:18.520 things we can avoid the

01:00:20.440 idea that that is all

01:00:22.220 going to be brought up

01:00:23.100 short in a few short

01:00:24.660 years right like I mean

01:00:25.960 we just think of like

01:00:26.520 well what's the point of

01:00:27.980 building increasingly

01:00:30.060 wonderful and powerful

01:00:32.320 and benign technology

01:00:33.840 or you know creating

01:00:35.300 beautiful art or

01:00:36.900 literature or just

01:00:38.900 making progress on any

01:00:40.440 front philosophically or

01:00:41.900 I mean beyond just

01:00:43.500 securing your day-to-day

01:00:46.520 comfort and you know

01:00:48.540 basic happiness there's

01:00:50.780 something forward-leaning

01:00:51.960 about all of that it's a

01:00:54.880 check that in some sense

01:00:56.620 never gets cached or

01:00:58.240 fully cached or it just

01:00:59.560 gets continually cached

01:01:00.900 in the future if not by

01:01:03.520 our future selves by

01:01:05.200 others to which we're

01:01:06.280 connected and the idea

01:01:07.640 that we could ever know

01:01:09.360 that there's just a few

01:01:10.400 more years of this and

01:01:11.360 then it's all over I mean

01:01:12.880 we all know that

01:01:13.760 personally with respect to

01:01:15.660 our own mortality but

01:01:17.620 there is something about

01:01:18.880 the open-endedness of the

01:01:21.840 whole project for others

01:01:24.140 you know even if you don't

01:01:25.300 have kids that changes

01:01:27.460 again it is I really

01:01:29.500 don't even have my

01:01:31.200 intuitions around this

01:01:32.340 are so unformed but it

01:01:34.360 really does feel like it

01:01:35.880 changes something about

01:01:38.100 day-to-day life if the rug

01:01:40.260 were truly pulled out from

01:01:41.480 under us in a way that we

01:01:42.680 had to acknowledge you

01:01:44.260 know leaving everything

01:01:45.120 else intact right I mean

01:01:47.040 all the buildings are still

01:01:48.020 standing we've got you

01:01:49.140 know there's still a

01:01:50.100 concert Saturday night in

01:01:51.500 the same auditorium and you

01:01:52.820 have tickets but you knew

01:01:55.280 the world was going to

01:01:56.440 end and you were just

01:01:58.400 going to get a collective

01:01:59.720 dial tone at some point

01:02:02.120 in the near future you

01:02:03.560 know I don't know what to

01:02:04.200 what degree but it would

01:02:05.360 change everything to some

01:02:07.120 degree yeah so in what we

01:02:08.800 owe the future I actually

01:02:09.900 start and end the book on

01:02:12.560 the same note which is a

01:02:13.980 note of gratitude where the

01:02:16.460 book it's dedicated to my

01:02:19.500 parents my other Robin and

01:02:21.780 their parents Tom and

01:02:23.300 Nina and Frank and Daphne

01:02:25.340 and so on all the way

01:02:26.760 back all the history that

01:02:28.760 led us here and at the

01:02:31.420 very end of the book in

01:02:32.200 the very last page there's

01:02:33.520 in the print version there's

01:02:35.540 this QR code and if you

01:02:36.580 scan it it takes you to a

01:02:38.700 little short story I wrote

01:02:40.280 I'm not claiming it's any

01:02:41.420 good but I did it because I

01:02:44.140 think it's so hard to

01:02:45.040 visualize the future

01:02:45.820 especially to visualize how

01:02:47.340 good the future could be and

01:02:48.940 in the end of that short

01:02:49.860 story one of the characters

01:02:51.480 reflects on everything that

01:02:53.840 led and it's you know this

01:02:54.980 depiction of this I'm not

01:02:56.760 saying it's the best

01:02:57.300 possible future but at

01:02:58.240 least a good one and one

01:02:59.960 of the characters just

01:03:00.740 reflects on just everything

01:03:01.980 that led to her life today

01:03:04.400 all of the hardship the ways

01:03:06.960 in the past in which people

01:03:09.320 endured sickness and

01:03:11.380 suffering and rides on the

01:03:13.940 subway packed in with other

01:03:15.740 people who are you know

01:03:17.120 miserable on their commute

01:03:18.680 and just being deeply

01:03:20.040 thankful for all of that

01:03:21.480 and that's certainly how I

01:03:23.300 feel where you know the

01:03:25.200 past has given us past

01:03:26.560 generations have given us

01:03:27.560 this mixed bag they've given

01:03:29.540 us many ways in which the

01:03:31.140 world is broken many ways in

01:03:32.740 which we still see enormous

01:03:34.080 suffering but they've also

01:03:35.500 given us wonderful good

01:03:36.900 things too I live in this like

01:03:38.640 liberal democratic country that

01:03:40.180 is exceptionally unusual by

01:03:42.160 historical standards I don't

01:03:44.200 need to suffer pain when I

01:03:46.760 engage in a surgery I don't

01:03:48.700 need to risk for my life from

01:03:50.720 diseases like syphilis or

01:03:52.600 tuberculosis I can see the

01:03:55.480 kind of just on my phone I

01:03:57.140 can just see the most

01:03:57.920 wonderful art produced in the

01:03:59.220 entire world at any time I can

01:04:01.480 see the world I can go

01:04:02.520 traveling in like India Sri Lanka

01:04:04.780 Ethiopia wow I'm just so

01:04:07.660 grateful for all that's been

01:04:08.760 done the very least that I can

01:04:11.180 do is try and take that next

01:04:12.800 passage package of goods and

01:04:14.440 and goods and bads and try and

01:04:16.680 pass it to the fact trying to

01:04:18.060 ensure that there even are

01:04:19.380 future generations that I can

01:04:20.580 pass it to but also to make

01:04:22.460 it better and so that's kind

01:04:24.180 of yeah you know normally I

01:04:26.220 trade in these like logical

01:04:28.140 rational arguments but at

01:04:30.080 least in terms of what

01:04:30.840 motivates me on a on a gut

01:04:32.480 level that's a significant

01:04:33.880 part of it so we have

01:04:36.060 something like 500 million to

01:04:39.180 1.3 billion good years left on

01:04:43.080 this planet if the behavior of

01:04:45.120 our Sun is in any indication so

01:04:47.840 the challenge here is to not

01:04:49.840 screw it up and you know we 0.95

01:04:52.060 can leave aside the possibility

01:04:53.420 of of reaching for the stars

01:04:55.340 which we will almost certainly

01:04:56.840 do if we don't screw things up

01:04:58.780 and you know spreading out

01:05:00.860 across the galaxy but even on

01:05:03.040 this lowly planet we have just

01:05:05.880 an extraordinary amount of time

01:05:07.840 to make things better and better

01:05:10.580 and you know we're just at the

01:05:13.100 point where we can get our hands

01:05:15.600 around the kinds of things that

01:05:17.900 could could ruin everything not of

01:05:20.520 our own making like you know

01:05:21.780 asteroid impacts and and naturally

01:05:24.800 spawned pandemics and there's clear

01:05:27.900 ways in which our time is unusual

01:05:30.300 this way I think at one point in the

01:05:32.320 book you discuss how for virtually all

01:05:35.240 of the past we were culturally isolated

01:05:37.760 from one another and we may one day be

01:05:40.320 again culturally isolated if we

01:05:42.300 expand out across the galaxy which is

01:05:44.120 to say that there will be a time in

01:05:45.840 the future where human communities

01:05:47.820 grow far enough apart that what they

01:05:50.960 do has has really no implication for

01:05:53.160 what anyone else does outside of their

01:05:55.400 community and that's and that was

01:05:56.700 that was true of most of human history

01:05:59.680 until you know recent centuries I think

01:06:03.380 there's a more fundamental claim in

01:06:05.900 your book which is that there's good

01:06:08.640 reason to believe that we are at

01:06:10.080 something like a hinge moment in

01:06:12.780 history where the things we do and

01:06:15.520 don't do have a an outsized effect

01:06:19.680 over the trajectory of human life in

01:06:22.980 the future and you know there are

01:06:24.600 things that have come up briefly so far

01:06:27.780 like value lock-in which are related to

01:06:30.560 that but and which we'll talk about but

01:06:33.100 what what do you think about this

01:06:35.300 question of whether or not we're

01:06:37.740 living at a hinge moment and you know

01:06:40.940 how we can know and how we may or may

01:06:43.240 not be mistaken about that I think it's

01:06:46.680 clear that we're living at an extremely

01:06:48.220 unusual time that gives a good argument

01:06:51.240 that for thinking that we're living an

01:06:53.240 unusually impactful time too and I'm not

01:06:56.380 going to claim whether living at the

01:06:57.660 most unusual time or impactful time in

01:07:00.340 history perhaps the next century will be

01:07:02.360 even more influential again but it's

01:07:04.660 certainly very influential and the core

01:07:07.380 reason for this is just kind of think

01:07:09.840 about the tree of technology that

01:07:12.580 civilization can kind of go through from

01:07:15.180 at the very first stage there's flint

01:07:17.280 axes and spear throwers and fire and the

01:07:19.500 wheel and then nowadays there's maybe

01:07:22.860 it's fusion technology and advanced

01:07:24.520 machine learning and biotechnology the

01:07:27.160 current developments and at some point

01:07:29.180 there will be future technology that

01:07:32.000 perhaps we've not even imagined yet

01:07:33.960 here's the question just relative to

01:07:37.220 both the past and the future how quickly

01:07:40.100 are we moving through that technology

01:07:41.700 tree and I think there's very good

01:07:43.720 arguments for thinking that it's much

01:07:45.320 faster we are moving much faster through

01:07:47.720 that technology tree than for almost all

01:07:50.560 of human history and almost all of the

01:07:52.400 future if we don't go extinct in the

01:07:54.320 near term and I think that's clear so

01:07:56.900 economists you know measure this generally

01:07:59.440 with economic growth where at least a

01:08:02.840 significant fraction of economic growth

01:08:04.480 comes from technological progress and the

01:08:08.140 economy is currently growing far far

01:08:10.360 faster than it has done for almost all of

01:08:13.240 human history where today the economy

01:08:15.760 doubles every 20 years or so

01:08:18.480 yeah so it's growing around two percent or

01:08:20.680 so and you compound exactly that it gives

01:08:22.760 you a doubling time of something like

01:08:24.420 25 years or exactly there about yeah two

01:08:27.600 three percent when we were hunter

01:08:29.400 gatherers growth was very close to zero as

01:08:32.240 farmers growth was more like 0.1 percent so

01:08:34.980 doubling every few hundred years or so and

01:08:38.980 so relative to the past we are speeding

01:08:42.040 through technological development much much

01:08:43.960 faster than before you know for most of

01:08:46.620 human history before I mean honestly I say

01:08:49.000 before the scientific industrial revolution

01:08:50.780 really it's before about the year 1900s

01:08:53.120 because there was a slower kind of lamp

01:08:54.340 up but then secondly I think we're speeding

01:08:57.080 through that progress much faster than for

01:08:59.040 most of the future too and the argument for

01:09:02.180 this is that we'll just assume we keep

01:09:05.420 growing at about two percent per year for

01:09:08.920 another 10,000 years how much growth would

01:09:11.600 there have to be in that case well it turns

01:09:15.120 out because of the power of compound growth

01:09:17.580 that it would mean that for every atom

01:09:21.660 within reach that is within 10,000 light

01:09:25.240 years there would be I think it's a hundred

01:09:28.520 billion trillion current civilizations worth

01:09:31.700 of output and now you know maybe that's

01:09:34.880 possible I think it's extremely unlikely

01:09:36.720 and so I think at some point with this level

01:09:40.620 of progress of economic technological progress

01:09:43.380 we would get very close to basically

01:09:46.860 discovering almost everything that is to

01:09:48.640 discover on the order of a few thousand

01:09:51.040 years however as you said there are

01:09:53.780 hundreds of millions of years to go

01:09:55.680 potentially and so that means that as I

01:09:59.560 said we're moving particularly quickly

01:10:01.460 through the tree of technologies and every

01:10:05.320 technology comes with its distribution of

01:10:09.000 powers and capabilities and benefits and

01:10:12.200 disadvantages so if we take the ability to

01:10:15.320 harness energy from the atom well that gave

01:10:19.260 us clean energy it gave fire nuclear power

01:10:21.580 that's an enormous benefit to society it

01:10:24.500 also gave us nuclear weapons that could

01:10:26.920 threaten wars more destructive than any we've

01:10:30.160 ever seen in history and I think future

01:10:33.140 technologies such as biotechnology that can

01:10:37.380 you know allow us to create new viruses or

01:10:40.880 advanced artificial intelligence that each

01:10:44.760 one of these give us this new distribution of

01:10:48.740 powers and some of those powers can have

01:10:52.780 extraordinarily long-lasting impacts such as

01:10:55.540 the power to destroy civilization or such as 1.00

01:10:58.300 the power to lock in a particular narrow ideology

01:11:01.360 for all time and that's why the world today is at

01:11:05.740 such a crucial moment yeah the principle of

01:11:09.620 compounding has other relevance here when

01:11:14.100 it comes to this question of just how

01:11:16.760 influential a moment this might be in

01:11:20.020 history it's when you just look at at how

01:11:23.840 effects of any kind compound over time it

01:11:28.180 does cast back upon the present kind of an

01:11:31.340 inordinate responsibility to safeguard the future

01:11:36.580 because I mean we have this enormous potential

01:11:39.780 influence I mean just the slightest deflection

01:11:42.720 of trajectory now potentially has massive implications

01:11:48.180 you know 20 30 40 years from now and it's

01:11:52.000 obviously hard to do the math on these things it's

01:11:54.180 hard to predict the full set of consequences from

01:11:57.000 any change we make but if you just look at what it

01:12:00.560 means to steadily diminish the probability of a

01:12:06.040 full-scale nuclear war year after year even just

01:12:08.920 by you know two percent a year if we could just get

01:12:11.900 that virtuous compounding to happen roll that same

01:12:15.820 logic to every other problem you care about it's

01:12:18.920 very easy to see that getting our act together

01:12:21.580 however incrementally now on all these fronts matters

01:12:26.800 enormously in the not too distant future

01:12:29.740 absolutely I mean my colleague Toby Orden is yeah

01:12:34.780 wonderful book the precipice just suggests that well

01:12:37.820 what's happening now is that our technology is advancing

01:12:40.560 more rapidly than our wisdom and it's a beautiful

01:12:42.920 idea and what we're trying to do is accelerate wisdom

01:12:48.140 you know we're trying to just make us a little bit wiser a

01:12:51.320 little bit more cognizant of you know there's most people

01:12:55.340 fall into one of two camps there are the people who are

01:12:58.580 really into technology the kind of stereotype of the

01:13:01.620 Silicon Valley people and they think technology is great

01:13:04.480 and we just need to keep advancing it and then there are

01:13:07.360 people who are not really into technology and the people

01:13:10.400 who are very skeptical of Silicon Valley and worry about

01:13:13.200 what technology could be doing to society and I think I

01:13:16.600 just really want people to inhabit both frames of mind at

01:13:19.560 once technology has benefits and costs some

01:13:24.580 technologies are just like anesthetic I'm like oh yeah

01:13:28.380 that's just really good let's have more of these like

01:13:31.840 un you know no downside unashamedly good technologies

01:13:35.360 let's speed them up faster for technologies that are very

01:13:39.860 dual use or just extremely powerful and we don't know how

01:13:43.020 to handle them well let's then be careful and considerate

01:13:46.760 about how we're developing these technologies have good norms

01:13:50.200 and regulations in place so that we don't you know basically

01:13:55.340 just walk backwards into a chasm where we wreak global disaster

01:14:02.600 because we're not even paying attention to the impacts that

01:14:06.580 technologies that are just around the corner will have because

01:14:10.820 of this reason of out of sight and out of mind because we're

01:14:13.880 barely thinking about you know we barely think about like the

01:14:17.020 end of the next year certainly not the end or the end of the

01:14:19.340 next political cycle let alone the decades ahead that could bring

01:14:24.340 about radical changes and how they might impact the centuries ahead

01:14:28.000 well simply by uttering the phrase political cycle you have

01:14:32.420 referenced what I consider a major problem here which is we we have a

01:14:37.620 politics that is almost by definition a machine of short-termism whereas

01:14:44.420 just it's taking a long-term view is antithetical to the whole project of

01:14:49.920 becoming president and staying president and then raising money for your next

01:14:55.400 campaign I mean you know you're just not to speak specifically of America at

01:14:59.580 this point I don't know that it's much better in any other country you're not

01:15:02.700 incentivized to think about the far future and to figure out how to help all

01:15:07.260 those people whose names you will never know and and who will never vote for you

01:15:11.540 much less give you money it's just not in the cards right and so one thing that has

01:15:17.920 to be a fairly high priority is to figure out how to engineer a system of

01:15:23.420 political and economic incentives such that we more effortlessly take the future

01:15:29.280 into account absolutely and honestly it's extremely tough so I've worked on this

01:15:35.900 topic I have an article on long-termist political institutions with another

01:15:41.340 philosopher Tyler John and there are some things you can do such as you know some

01:15:48.860 countries have an ombudsperson to represent future generations I'm

01:15:52.640 particularly attracted to the idea of at least an advisory as at least as an

01:15:57.340 advisory body a kind of citizens assembly so a randomly selected group of

01:16:01.480 people from the from the populace who are explicitly given the task of

01:16:06.480 representing the interests of future generations and then making

01:16:09.680 recommendations about what the government could do differently in order to make

01:16:13.960 the future go better I think we can also build in just more information so more

01:16:20.340 think tanks or quasi-governmental organizations that have the task of really

01:16:26.840 trying to project not just the next few years but the next few decades even the

01:16:31.040 next few centuries these are some changes we can make however the fundamental

01:16:37.700 problem is that future generations are being impacted without representation they

01:16:44.780 do not get a vote and the fundamental problem is we cannot give them a vote

01:16:48.580 there's no way they can represent themselves and what do we do about that

01:16:52.660 honestly I think it's going to be very hard to make major progress unless there's some

01:16:59.100 significant cultural change so if we imagine a world where governments are responding to the

01:17:06.600 views and preferences and ideals of their populace of the electorate and that electorate cares about

01:17:11.780 the long term well that's a situation where we can align align political incentives with

01:17:18.360 the long term good and so that's what I think we really need to get to I mean it's just amazing how

01:17:24.520 hard it is even for normal people who have children to prioritize the next decade right I mean even

01:17:33.680 it's a decade where they have every expectation of being alive and suffering the consequences of our

01:17:39.460 present actions and they have every certainly every expectation that their children will be alive in those

01:17:44.680 decades when you look at a problem like climate change or anything else that is slowish moving and

01:17:53.020 has various features like you know being in part a tragedy of the commons running counter to any

01:18:01.640 individual's personal economic incentives etc it's just it all falls by the wayside even when you're not

01:18:11.800 talking about hypothetical people who you will never meet right I mean it's just if there's something

01:18:17.540 so hard about focusing on the big picture and so yeah it does I mean when you talk about cultural change

01:18:25.600 I mean it it's hard to see the thing that would be so sweeping that it would capture more or less

01:18:32.560 everybody all at once or but perhaps that's not even the right goal I mean maybe they're they're only

01:18:38.740 something like 5 000 people whose minds would have to change to fundamentally redirect human energy I

01:18:46.640 mean this is an elitist claim and argument but I suspect that something like that might also be true

01:18:54.180 yeah I think I'm more optimistic on this in general that perhaps than you are where yeah in the course of

01:19:01.880 doing research for what we owe the future I you know dug a lot into the history of various social

01:19:09.080 and moral movements which is environmentalism feminism animal welfare movement and in particular

01:19:15.660 in particular the abolition of slavery and one thing I think it's easy to underestimate

01:19:22.720 is just how weird these ideas were in the past at least in particular for the kind of political elite or at

01:19:31.080 least the people who had power where you don't have to go that long ago let's just focus on the

01:19:37.160 environmentalist movement I think there's many analogies here where the environment can't represent

01:19:42.200 itself it has an advantage that you can see the environment you can relate to it but 150 years ago

01:19:47.920 concern for the environment was really not on the table maybe you had poets Williams Wordsworth starting

01:19:53.060 to cultivate love for nature but there just really wasn't anything like a movement whereas now it is just a

01:19:59.700 part of common sense morality at least in many countries around the world that is by historical

01:20:06.460 standards that is amazingly remarkable like amazingly rapid model change and so at least if we're able to

01:20:15.900 say look I'm not going to be we're not going to be able to make this change to convince everyone of

01:20:21.180 this long-term outlook to convince everyone of having concern for future generations we're not going to be

01:20:27.920 able to convince them within the next few years or even few decades but when we look like 100 years

01:20:32.860 out maybe we can maybe actually we really can affect that sort of sweeping model change where

01:20:40.900 concern for future generations is just on the same on the same level as concern for other people in your

01:20:50.240 community or people of you know different ethnicity than you I'm holding out hope

01:20:56.860 um I'm holding out hope that those sirens aren't people coming to arrest you for your thought crimes

01:21:03.020 I'm sorry this is uh I'm in New York

01:21:06.780 are you are you recording this podcast while robbing a bank

01:21:11.120 look it's for the greater good right the money can go further so that's a you know don't do that

01:21:16.560 just in case my followers take me too literally let's go on record we're against bank robbery

01:21:22.320 yeah at least currently I'm with that I won't say anything about value lock-in on that point but

01:21:27.500 well let's talk about this issue of value lock-in and what you call moments of plasticity and and

01:21:34.940 trajectory changes how do you think about I mean you might want to define some of those terms but

01:21:39.860 what is the um the issue and opportunity here sure so at the moment there's a wide diversity of moral

01:21:49.860 views in the world and rapid moral change so you know the the gay rights movement can build in power 0.87

01:21:57.840 the momentum in the 60s and 70s and then you get legalization of gay marriage a few decades later

01:22:03.000 clear example of positive moral change and so we're very used to that we think it's kind of just

01:22:08.060 part of reality we wouldn't expect that that might change in the future such that such that

01:22:14.200 moral change might come to an end the idea of value lock-in is taken seriously that maybe it will

01:22:20.040 will actually maybe moral progress will stall and so value lock-in is the idea that some particular

01:22:25.840 set of some particular ideology or moral view or kind of narrow set of ideologies or moral views

01:22:32.500 could become globally but dominant and persist for an extremely long time and I'm worried about that

01:22:40.040 I think that's a way in which the long-term future could go that could just lead to enormous loss of value

01:22:49.940 could make the future dystopia rather than a positive one and you know the most it's easiest to see this

01:22:58.180 by starting off with maybe the most extreme case and then kind of thinking about ways you might not

01:23:05.400 be quite that extreme but close and most extreme cases just imagine a different history where it

01:23:12.280 wasn't you know the US and UK and liberal countries that won World War II and instead it was Stalinist

01:23:20.660 USSR or let's say the Nazis who won now they really aimed ultimately a global domination they wanted to 0.91

01:23:28.440 create a thousand-year empire if that happened and they had a very narrow and like morally abominable

01:23:36.360 ideology if they had succeeded would that have been able to persist forever or at least for an

01:23:43.840 extremely long time and I think actually the answer is yes where ideologies in general and social systems can

01:23:52.040 certainly persist for centuries or even thousands of years so the major world religions are thousands of years old

01:23:57.000 but technology I think over time will give us greater and greater power to control the values of the

01:24:04.860 population that lives in the world and the values in the future as well where at the point in time where we

01:24:13.060 develop the ability to like stop aging such that people's lifespans could last for much much longer

01:24:19.520 well then a single dictator could you know it's not confined to the lifespan of a rule is not confined

01:24:26.420 to the lifespan of a single individual 70 years but instead would be thousands of years or however long that

01:24:34.640 ruler would last even more extreme I think is the point of time at which the ruling beings are digital rather than

01:24:43.060 biological and again this feels like sci-fi but you know we're talking about I actually think many people I

01:24:49.140 respect greatly think that moment is coming in in a few decades time but let's just say it's like you know plausible

01:24:55.980 within this century or centuries well consider what the environment is like for a ruler who is a digital being well they

01:25:07.360 don't die they are in principle immortal software can replicate itself and any piece of machinery would wear out but the AI systems

01:25:18.340 themselves could persist forever so one of the main reasons why we get model change over time namely that people die and

01:25:25.540 are replaced by people who have slightly different views that would be undermined I think in this kind of scenario other causes of

01:25:32.520 change would be undermined too or taken away so I think the fact that we have competition between different

01:25:37.620 model ideas because we have this diversity of model ideas well if the Nazis had won World War II if they had 0.75

01:25:45.180 established a world government you know again this is I'm not claiming this is likely or possible but imagine the

01:25:50.180 counterfactual history well then we would lose out on that competition of ideas there wouldn't be that pressure

01:25:56.240 for model ideas to change and then finally is just potentially a changing

01:26:01.300 environment like upsets happen you know civilizations fall apart and so on but I think technology in the future

01:26:07.880 could allow for greater and greater stability so again I think AI is particularly worrying here where

01:26:14.400 you know again we're imagining the leaders of the Nazis controlling the world okay well one way in which 0.77

01:26:21.340 dictatorships end is insurrection whether that's by the army or by the people if your army is automated

01:26:28.260 if you have kind of robots policing the streets then that dynamic would end similarly with your police force

01:26:34.640 and again all of this seems like sci-fi but I think we should be thinking about it we should be taking it seriously

01:26:40.620 because it really could come sooner than we think and the technologies we have today would have looked like wild sci-fi

01:26:47.320 just a century ago yeah well maybe we'll close out with a conversation about AI

01:26:52.280 because I share your concern here and I share your interest in in elucidating the bad intuitions that make

01:27:01.740 this not a concern for so many other people so let's get there in a second but remind me what is

01:27:09.640 the lock-in paradox that you talk about in the book sure so the lock-in paradox it's like the

01:27:16.240 liberal paradox of tolerance but you know I push in the book that we don't want to lock in any

01:27:21.980 particular values right now because probably all of the values we're used to are abominable you know

01:27:29.060 I think we're like Plato and Aristotle arguing about the good life and we've not realized the fact that

01:27:36.280 we all own slaves is you know maybe morally problematic so I think that there's enormous amount

01:27:43.420 of moral progress yet to come and we want to ensure that we guarantee that progress and so even if you

01:27:49.720 know I think motivation of thinking oh well it's you know 21st early 21st century western liberal values

01:27:55.180 that's the best thing and we should just ensure they happen forever I'm like no we need progress

01:27:59.800 the lock-in paradox however is that if we wanted to create a world where we do get a sustained period

01:28:07.520 of reflection and moral progress that does mean we'll need some restraints so we might well need

01:28:14.420 to lock in certain ideas like commitment to free debate commitment to tolerance of opposing

01:28:23.640 moral views restrictions on ways of gaining power that aren't via making good arguments and moving people

01:28:33.280 over to your side kind of in the same way that like you know the U.S. constitution at least

01:28:39.520 aspirationally is trying to bring about this like liberal society where many different world views

01:28:44.200 can coexist and where you can make moral progress but in order to have that and not fall into a

01:28:49.520 dictatorial dictatorship you needed to have these restraints on any individual's power and so I think we

01:28:56.400 may well need something like that for the whole world where we stop any particular ideology

01:29:02.740 or just set of people from gaining too much power such that they can just you know control the world

01:29:09.220 so that we can just have continued reflection insight empathy and moral progress yeah it's tempting to

01:29:16.420 try to formulate the minimum algorithmic statement of of this which is is something that allows for the

01:29:25.300 the kind of the kind of incrementalism you've just sketched out and and the the error correction

01:29:31.620 exactly that i think is necessary for any progress and including ethical progress but which locks in the

01:29:40.820 methodology by which one would safeguard the principle of error correction and exactly you know sensitivity to

01:29:49.460 uh the the the open-endedness of the exploration in ethical space right i mean it's like you know

01:29:57.060 i i think there's probably whether you define it as consequentialist or not i i think it's probably less

01:30:02.980 important i mean the consequentialism as we know has its its wrinkles but i think there's an almost

01:30:09.140 axiomatic claim about the primacy of safeguarding the well-being of conscious creatures at the bottom of

01:30:17.220 i think any sane moral enterprise right now it's not in how you how you think about well-being how you

01:30:24.340 aspire to measure it or quantify it how how you imagine aggregating these quantities there are many

01:30:30.500 devils in all those details but the basic claim that you know you have to be at bottom care about the

01:30:37.220 happiness and suffering of conscious creatures and marry that to a truly open-ended conception of and

01:30:44.980 you know and you know perpetually refined and refinable conception of what well-being is all things

01:30:51.700 considered you know and that's where all the discussion remains to be done i think i think those

01:30:57.380 are the bootstraps in some form that we have to pull ourselves up by uh yeah so it is a very notable fact

01:31:05.540 that i think basically all plausible model views that are on the table see you know well-being as one

01:31:14.660 part of the good perhaps they think other things are good too um art flourishing natural environment and

01:31:20.100 so on but at least you know happiness broadly construed flourishing life avoidance of suffering

01:31:27.780 those are good things and i would just well just not to be too pedantic here but i in in my brain

01:31:35.380 all of that collapses to just a fuller understanding of what well-being is i don't think any you know

01:31:42.500 reasonable definition of well-being would would exclude the things you just mentioned and the cash value of

01:31:48.820 the things you just mentioned it has to be at some level how they impact the actual or potential

01:31:55.940 experiences of conscious creatures this is an argument i've made somewhere if you're going to tell

01:32:01.380 me you've got something in a you know locked in a box that is really important it's really valuable it's

01:32:07.860 important that we consider its fate in everything we do but this thing in the box cannot will not

01:32:16.100 affect the experience of any conscious creature now or in the future right well then i i just think

01:32:23.780 that's a a contradiction i mean we what we what we mean by value is something that could be actually or

01:32:29.380 potentially valued by someone somewhere great so i think we differ a little bit on this where

01:32:35.460 i mean i also think like my best guess is that value is just a property of conscious experiences

01:32:44.820 and you know art and knowledge and the natural environment all good things insofar as the impact

01:32:50.100 the well-being of conscious experiences but that's not something i would want to bake in i'm not so

01:32:55.300 certain in it you know there are other views where the satisfaction of carefully considered preferences

01:33:00.420 is of positive value even if that doesn't go via the change in any part in any conscious

01:33:07.860 experience and other people do have the view that but so again that's the phrase i'm actually not

01:33:13.700 familiar with when i hear you say satisfaction of anything including preferences aren't we talking

01:33:21.220 about conscious experience actual or potential uh so on this view it's no so suppose that avistotle

01:33:28.820 wanted to be famous and he wasn't very famous during his time i'm actually not sure but let's

01:33:35.060 let's say that he was certainly much less famous than he is now right does the fact that we are

01:33:39.300 talking about avistotle now increasing his fame does that increase his well-being and it's obviously

01:33:46.100 not impact i'm prepared to answer that question i'm sure you're prepared to say no and honestly and

01:33:51.300 my best guess view is completely agreeing with you that anything we do to talk about avistotle now

01:33:57.220 we could say he smells and we hate him it doesn't change his well-being at all however that's not

01:34:03.060 true other people disagree and i think other smart people disagree and so i certainly wouldn't want to

01:34:08.340 have wouldn't want to say look we figured that out i would want to say look now we've got plenty of

01:34:14.100 time to debate this i think i'm going to win the debate maybe the other person thinks they aren't

01:34:18.340 going to win the debate but we've got all the time in the world to really try and figure this out

01:34:23.780 and i would want to be open to the possibility that i'm badly wrong i guess we are kind of badly

01:34:29.940 wrong on this well that's interesting i would love to uh debate that so maybe as a sidebar you and i

01:34:36.420 can figure out uh who and and when and where and absolutely always happy to talk about yeah okay well

01:34:42.900 so let's talk about ai because it is in in some sense the the apotheosis of of many of these concerns

01:34:50.660 and i agree that should anything like a malevolent agi be built or be put in the service of malevolent

01:35:00.340 people uh the prospect of value lock-in and you know orwellian totalitarianism it just goes way way

01:35:08.180 up yeah uh and that's worth worrying about whatever you think about the the importance of future generations

01:35:13.700 but people are there are several stumbling blocks on the path to taking these concerns about ai

01:35:20.260 seriously the first is and this really is the first knee-jerk reaction of people in the field who

01:35:27.460 don't take it seriously it's the claim that we're nowhere near doing this that are you know our language

01:35:34.980 models are still pretty dumb even though they can produce some interesting texts at this point there's 0.97

01:35:42.820 certainly no concern that they could there could be anything like an intelligence explosion in any of 0.98

01:35:48.900 the machine learning algorithms we're currently running you know alpha zero for all of its amazing

01:35:54.900 work is still not going to get away from us and it's it's hard to envision what could allow it to i

01:36:02.660 know that there are people who you know on our side of this debate who have given a kind of kind of

01:36:07.700 probability distribution over over the future you know giving it you know a 10 chance it might happen

01:36:13.220 in 20 years and a 50 chance it'll happen within 50 years etc but if in my mind there is there's just there's no

01:36:20.580 need to even pretend to know when this is going to happen the only thing you you need to acknowledge is that if

01:36:28.340 not much needs to be true to make it guaranteed to happen you know that it's really that there's

01:36:36.100 there are really two assumptions one needs to make i mean the one assumption is we will continue to make

01:36:41.540 progress in building intelligent machines at whatever rate unless something terrible happens right i mean

01:36:48.420 this brings us back to the collapse of civilization the only thing that would cause us to stop making

01:36:54.260 progress in building intelligent machines given how valuable intelligence is is uh something truly

01:37:02.100 awful that makes it you know they render some generation of future humans just unable to improve

01:37:09.380 hardware and software so there's that i mean so you know barring catastrophe we're going to continue to

01:37:14.980 make progress and then the only other assumption you need is that intelligence is substrate independent

01:37:23.300 right that it's not it doesn't require the wet wear of a biological brain it can be instantiated in

01:37:30.340 silico and we already know that's true given the piecemeal ai we've already built and we already know

01:37:38.180 that you can build a calculator that's better than any human brain calculator and you can do that in

01:37:43.860 silicon and there's just no reason to think that the input output properties of a complex information

01:37:51.300 processing system are magically transformed the moment you make that system out of meat and so again

01:38:00.260 given any rate of progress and given the assumption of substrate independence eventually and again the time

01:38:09.140 horizon is can be left totally unspecified you know five years or 500 years eventually we will be in the

01:38:16.100 presence of intelligent machines that are far more intelligent and competent and powerful than we are

01:38:24.340 and the the only other point of confusion that i've detected here again and again and again which

01:38:30.260 can be easily left to one side is the question of consciousness right will these machines be sentient

01:38:37.220 and that really is a red herring from my point of view i mean it's it's it's not a red herring ethically

01:38:42.820 it's incredibly important ethically because you know if if they are conscious well then then we

01:38:48.420 can have a conversation about whether they're ethically more you know suddenly more important

01:38:52.980 than we are or at least are equals and whether we're you know creating machines that can suffer

01:38:57.940 etc i mean is that if we're creating simulated worlds that are essentially hell realms for sentient

01:39:04.340 algorithms i mean that would be a terrible thing to do so yes it's all very interesting to consider but

01:39:09.300 assuming that we can't currently know and and we may one day never know even in the presence of

01:39:15.300 machines that say they're conscious and that pass the turing test with flying colors we may still be

01:39:21.380 uncertain as to whether or not they're conscious the whether or not they're conscious is is the

01:39:25.940 question that is totally orthogonal to the question of what it will be like to be in the presence of

01:39:33.220 of machines that are that intelligent right i mean i think intel i think you can dissociate

01:39:38.980 or very likely you can dissociate consciousness and intelligence i mean yes it may be the case that

01:39:44.180 the the lights of consciousness magically come on once you get a sufficient degree of complexity

01:39:50.260 and intelligence on board that that may just be a a fact of our world and we certainly have reason to

01:39:56.340 expect that consciousness arrives far sooner than that when you look around at animals who we deem

01:40:01.140 conscious who are far less intelligent than we are so i do think they're just separable questions

01:40:06.820 but the question of intelligence is really straightforward we're just talking about

01:40:11.380 you know conscious or not we're talking about machines that can engage in goal-oriented behavior and

01:40:18.420 learning in ways that are increasingly powerful and ultimately achieve a power that far exceeds our own

01:40:27.940 given that it's it seems virtually inevitable given these two measly assumptions again any progress and

01:40:35.860 substrate independence for intelligence we have to acknowledge that we or our children or our grandchildren or some generation of human beings

01:40:46.820 stand a very good chance of finding themselves in relationship

01:40:50.180 relationship to intelligences that are far more powerful than they are and that's an amazing

01:40:57.620 situation to contemplate and it's i'll just remind people of uh stuart russell's analogy here which

01:41:04.180 somehow at least in my experience changes people's intuitions on his account it's like we're in the following

01:41:12.020 situation we just got a a message from some distant point in the galaxy which reads people of earth we will

01:41:20.020 arrive on your planet in 50 or 75 or 100 years get ready right you know you don't know when this is going to happen

01:41:28.580 but you know it's going to happen and that statement of of looming relationship delivered in that form would be quite

01:41:37.700 a bit more arresting than the prospect of continued progress in ai and you know i would argue that it

01:41:45.620 it shouldn't be i mean they're they're they're essentially the same case yeah i just think that

01:41:51.620 framing is excellent i mean another framing is if you're chimpanzees and you see this other species 0.61

01:41:59.220 homo sapiens that are perhaps less powerful than you to begin with but they seem to be getting rapidly

01:42:05.140 increasing in their power you'd at least be paying attention to that and uh yeah you remind me a little of

01:42:11.300 the second book of the free body problem where the premise i hope it's okay to say is aliens will come

01:42:18.660 and i think it's in a thousand years time and they have far more greater power than civilization on earth

01:42:25.380 does but the entire world just unites to take seriously that threat and work against it and so

01:42:32.900 essentially i completely agree with you that the precise timelines are just not very important

01:42:39.300 compared to just noting if and well not if but basically when it happens that we have ai systems

01:42:46.980 that can do everything that a human being can do except better that will be one of the most important

01:42:52.980 moments in all of history plausibly and well we don't know exactly when it'll come but uncertainty

01:43:00.100 comes but uncertainty counts both ways it could be hundreds of years and it could be so it could be

01:43:06.820 soon for all we know but certainly relative to the tiny amount of time we're thinking about it

01:43:11.700 well we should be spending more but i'll actually just comment on the timelines as well where

01:43:17.780 there's a recent survey just came out last week in fact of just as many leading machine learning

01:43:25.860 researchers as possible i'm not sure the sample size but if it's like the last survey it'll be in the

01:43:31.540 hundreds and they asked well at what point in time will you expect you know do you expect a 50 50 chance

01:43:39.620 of developing human level machine intelligence that is ai systems that are as good or better

01:43:45.380 human beings all tasks essentially that humans can do and they say 37 years so that's in my lifetime

01:43:53.300 i will be entering my retirement for the 50 50 chance of advanced ai when i talk to people who are

01:44:00.740 really trying to dig into this they often have shorter timelines than that they often think that's

01:44:06.820 50 50 within more like 20 years and substantial probability on shorter timelines i tend to be in the more

01:44:14.020 skeptical end of that but basically within any of this range concern about ai it's not merely like oh we

01:44:23.060 should be thinking about something that happens in 200 years because maybe that will impact 2000

01:44:27.140 years it's like no we should be thinking about something that has a chance of catastrophe we're

01:44:34.580 on the same survey the probability that those machine learning researchers that's people who are

01:44:39.940 building these things who you think would be incentivized to say what they're doing is completely

01:44:43.540 safe the probability of an extremely bad outcome as bad as human extinction or worse

01:44:49.700 uh that have the typical probability was five percent of that so put those numbers together

01:44:57.940 and you have 2.5 chance of dying or being disempowered by ai according to

01:45:05.620 machine learning researchers not cherry pecked for being particularly concerned about this

01:45:09.540 you have a 2.5 chance of dying or being disempowered by artificial intelligence in your lifetime

01:45:16.020 that's more than your chance of dying in a car crash and we think a lot about dying in car crashes

01:45:20.740 uh take actions to avoid them there's like a huge industry a huge regulatory system so that people do

01:45:26.580 not die in car crashes what's the amount of attention on risks from ai well it's growing thankfully it's

01:45:32.740 growing and people are taking it really seriously and i expect that to continue into the future but it's

01:45:37.940 still very small it still means that smart morally motivated people can make a really transformative

01:45:45.700 difference in the field by getting involved working on the technical side of things to ensure that ai systems

01:45:51.860 are safe and honest and to also work on the governance side of things to ensure that like we as a society

01:46:00.420 developing this in a responsible way perhaps digging into you know ai is not a monolith there are

01:46:06.340 different sorts of ai technology some of which are more risky than others and ensuring that the

01:46:11.060 safety enhancing parts of ai come earlier the more dangerous parts come later this really is something

01:46:16.980 that people can be contributing now i think they are i think it's hard i'm not claiming that this is

01:46:21.460 like it's clear cut what to do there are the questions over like how much progress we can make but we can

01:46:26.180 at least try hmm yeah and i think the crucial piece there again this is courtesy of stuart russell who is

01:46:34.580 my vote for you know one of the wisest people to listen to on this topic just to make the the safety

01:46:42.180 conversation integral to the conversation about developing the technology in the first place i mean he

01:46:49.540 he asks us to imagine a world where it's just how perverse it would be if engineers who were designing

01:46:58.740 bridges thought about bridge safety only as an afterthought and under great you know duress

01:47:06.020 right so like there's the question about building bridges you know all of the resources put toward

01:47:10.660 that end but then only as an afterthought do engineers have conversations about that what

01:47:16.820 they call the not falling down problem with respect to bridges right i mean no it's completely insane

01:47:22.500 to conceive of build the project of building bridges as being separable from the project of building

01:47:27.860 bridges that don't fall down likewise it should be completely insane to think about the prospect of

01:47:33.220 building agi without grappling with the problem of alignment and uh related matters i mean so in defense of

01:47:42.980 of more near-term concern here many people have mined the history here and found these these great

01:47:51.780 anecdotes about just that reveal how bad we are at predicting technological progress i forget the details

01:47:59.700 here but i think it was i think it was the new york times or some esteemed u.s paper that confidently

01:48:05.060 published a an editorial i think it was just something like two months before the the wright brothers uh

01:48:12.820 conquered flight you know confidently predicting that that human beings will never fly or it will take

01:48:18.580 millions of years to to uh engine because it took evolution millions of years to engineer the bird's wing

01:48:24.340 it would likewise take us millions millions of years to fly and then you know two months later we've got

01:48:29.140 people flying and i think there's one anecdote that you have in your book that i hadn't heard but the

01:48:35.460 the famous physiologist jbs haldane in 1927 i was going to mention this one yeah go ahead yeah go ahead

01:48:43.700 what what was that reference oh yeah well so yeah one of the great scientists of his time uh evolutionary

01:48:49.620 biologist and had some remarkable essays on you know the future and predicting future events and how

01:48:56.580 a large civilization could get uh and he considered the question will there ever be a return trip to the

01:49:03.060 moon and he said oh yeah probably in eight million years and that was yeah did you say 1927 yeah yeah

01:49:11.780 so that shows you like people like to make fun of people in the past making these bold uh scientific

01:49:20.100 you know predictions about technology such as the early computer pioneers at the i think it was the

01:49:26.340 dartmouth conference saying oh yeah we'll build human level artificial intelligence in about six

01:49:30.740 months or so and you know people mock that and say oh that's so absurd but what they forget is that

01:49:35.700 there are just as many people on the other side making absurd claims about how long technology will

01:49:41.060 take in fact technology look things are hard to predict technology can come much later than you might

01:49:48.500 expect it can also come much sooner and in the face of an uncertain future we have to be preparing for

01:49:54.340 the near-term scenarios as well as the long-term scenarios yeah and the thing we have to get

01:49:59.380 straight in the meantime is that the incentives are currently not appropriate for wisdom and and

01:50:08.500 circumspection here i mean it's just we we have something like an arms race condition both with respect to

01:50:15.460 private efforts and you know rival governments one must imagine right and we're not you know we haven't

01:50:21.780 fused our moral horizons with the chinese and the israelis and anyone else who might be doing this 1.00

01:50:28.020 work and gotten everyone to agree just how careful we need to be in the final yards of this adventure

01:50:36.180 as we approach the end zone and and it does seem patently obvious that an arms race is not optimal for

01:50:45.060 taking safety concerns seriously it's not what we want and i mean the key issue is just how fast do

01:50:53.860 things go so supposing the development of artificial general intelligence suppose that's a hundred years

01:51:01.540 away or two hundred years away then it seems more likely to me that uh safety around ai will look like

01:51:08.580 safety around other technologies so you mentioned flight in the early days of flight a lot of planes crashed

01:51:16.340 a lot of people died over time we learned primarily by trial and error what systems make flight safer

01:51:25.540 and now very few people die of plane crashes compared to other modes of death especially in more developed

01:51:30.900 countries but we could learn by trial and error because a single plane crash would be a tragedy

01:51:36.500 um for the people involved and for their families but it wouldn't destroy the whole world

01:51:41.220 um and if ai development goes slowly then we could i think i would expect we will learn by that same

01:51:48.340 kind of process of trial and error and gradual improvement but there are arguments for thinking

01:51:52.900 that maybe it will go fast in fact leading economic models if you assume that there is a point at which

01:51:59.780 you get full substitutability between human labor and artificial labor like as ai in particular

01:52:06.340 the process of developing more advanced ai systems then you get very fast growth indeed and if things are

01:52:14.660 moving that quickly well this slow incremental process of trial and error that humans that you know

01:52:22.340 we as a society normally use to uh mitigate the risks of new technology that process is substantially

01:52:30.740 disempowered and i think that increases the risks greatly and again it's something that i really

01:52:36.340 think you know that prospect of very rapid growth is at least something that should be very rapid

01:52:42.020 progress should at least be on the table where again this survey that just came out if you ask

01:52:47.300 leading machine learning researchers though i'll caveat i don't think they're really the the people that

01:52:51.780 one should think of as experts here but they're still kind of relevant people to consider they think it's about

01:52:56.740 even that that will happen like about 50 50 chance that there will be something akin to what is known

01:53:03.140 as the intelligence explosion that doesn't necessarily mean the kind of classic it's two days

01:53:08.260 where we move from no advanced ai at all to ai that's more powerful than all the rest of the world

01:53:13.620 combined perhaps it occurs over the course of years or even like a small number of decades but

01:53:19.060 nonetheless if things are moving a lot faster than we're used to i think that increases the risks greatly

01:53:24.420 well it seems like things are already moving much faster than we're used to it's hard just it's hard

01:53:29.860 to see where we get off this ride because the pace of change is noticeably different and it's you know

01:53:37.220 i'm not a a full kurt swile in here but um it does seem like his claim about accelerating technological

01:53:45.140 change is um it's fairly palpable now i mean in in most sectors i mean i guess there are sectors

01:53:54.180 where virtually nothing is happening or improving i mean that that is also true but when you're talking

01:53:59.540 about information technology and what it does to politics and culture that's you know the recent years

01:54:08.420 have been uh kind of a blizzard of of change and uh it's hard to know where the break is to pull

01:54:16.340 yeah and people should just take a look at the recent developments in machine learning where they're

01:54:23.940 not very famous yet but they will be soon soon and it's truly remarkable what's happening i mean

01:54:29.940 obviously it's still far away from human level artificial intelligence i'm not claiming it's not

01:54:34.340 but when forecasts have been done again of people working in the area of what sort of progress we

01:54:41.620 expect to make things are moving faster even than the kind of the forecast of people who thought it was

01:54:46.900 going to be moving fast so in particular a recent they're called language models it's where they just

01:54:54.180 get trained on enormous amounts of enormous corpuses of human text but one got trained to solve

01:55:01.300 do math proofs essentially at about college level kind of easy college level and the innovation behind

01:55:09.220 this model was very very small indeed they actually just cleaned up the data so that it really could

01:55:14.100 read formula online whereas that was a problem beforehand and it just blew everyone's predictions

01:55:20.580 out of water and so now you have this model where you say you know can't like you give it a mathematical

01:55:25.860 problem kind of early college level prove that so and so or like what's the answer to this question

01:55:31.700 of social or proof and it will do it elite with 50 accuracy and that was something that people

01:55:38.340 weren't expecting for years if you look at like other language models as well i mean okay i'll give an

01:55:44.340 anecdote of uh so one of my responsibilities for the university is marking undergraduate exams and so i asked

01:55:52.020 gpt3 not even the recent the not even the most advanced language model nowadays but one you can

01:55:58.820 get public access to i was curious how good is gpt3 this language model compared to oxford undergraduates

01:56:04.820 at philosophy who studied philosophy for three years and so i got it to answer these questions

01:56:10.180 um like some of the questions that were the students most commonly answered that's great and it passed

01:56:14.980 yeah uh it was not very good it was not terribly good it was in the kind of bottom 10 percent of

01:56:20.340 students but not the bottom two percent of students i think if i'd given the essays to

01:56:25.780 a different examiner i don't think that examiner would have thought oh there's something really

01:56:30.180 odd here this is not a human writing it they would have just marked it and thought like

01:56:34.980 not a very good student you know a student that's good in some ways has good structure

01:56:39.460 it like really knows the art like the essay form but sometimes gets like a little bit derailed by

01:56:44.660 arguments that aren't actually relevant or something that's what it would have thought but would not

01:56:48.980 have thought oh this is clearly nonsense this is an ai or something and that's just you know that's

01:56:54.820 pretty striking we did not have anything close to that just a few years ago and so i don't know anyone

01:57:00.980 who's like this you know i think it's fine to be like an enormous ai skeptic and think that agi is

01:57:06.580 very far away you know maybe that view is correct like i said there's an enormous amount of uncertainty

01:57:12.180 but at least take seriously like this is like a fast moving area of technology

01:57:16.420 yeah yeah and obviously there are many interesting and consequential questions that arise

01:57:22.100 well short of agi i mean just just on this front i mean what will be the experience of

01:57:30.820 all of us collectively to be in the presence of ai that passes the turing test right it does not have 0.96

01:57:37.460 to be comprehensive agi it doesn't have to be empowered to do things out in the world but just when

01:57:44.420 siri or alexa become indistinguishable from people at the level of their conversation and you know have

01:57:53.620 access to the totality of human knowledge you know what when does siri on the on your phone become

01:58:00.500 less like a a glitchy assistant and more like an oracle yeah it's uh you know that that could be

01:58:07.300 fairly near term even with blind spots and you know something that you know disqualifies her as as

01:58:14.580 proper ai i mean i think the turing test will fall for most intents and purposes i mean for some

01:58:19.940 people the turing test has already fallen i mean we just have this this kind of laughable case of

01:58:24.420 the mine yeah the google engineer who who thought that you know the their current language model was

01:58:30.340 sentient it was absurd yeah i mean there was no reason to believe that but i would be very surprised

01:58:35.220 if it took more than a decade for the turing test to fall for something like a chatbot uh yeah i mean

01:58:42.660 i'm actually curious about why there haven't been attempts at the turing test using language models

01:58:49.220 my thought is that they actually would have a pretty good chance of passing it so i'm unsure on that but

01:58:53.940 one thing you mentioned is yeah this idea of like oh maybe rather than siri uh you have this incredibly

01:58:59.700 advanced personal assistance kind of like an article i just want to emphasize this is a you know one of

01:59:04.580 the examples where i talk about accelerating the most the kind of safer parts of ai and leaving

01:59:13.700 you know maybe slowing down or not investing much in the more dangerous parts where this idea of kind

01:59:21.620 of article ai just something that is it's not an agent trying to pursue goals in the world instead

01:59:27.700 it's just this input output function you put in text it outputs text and it is like the most helpful

01:59:34.740 extraordinarily smart and knowledgeable person that you've ever met that's the technology we want to

01:59:40.100 have earlier rather than later because that can help us with the the scariest issues around alignment that can help us

01:59:47.940 yeah that can help us align

01:59:50.180 ai that is more like a kind of agent acting in the world

01:59:53.620 and uh some of the leading ai labs are taking exactly that approach and i i think that's the right way to go

01:59:58.900 well will it's always fascinating and uh it was a joy yeah thank you so yeah so to be continued best of luck with the book again

02:00:08.740 that is uh what we owe the future and uh we have by no means covered all of its contents and um until next time will

02:00:16.500 thanks for being here thanks so much sam

02:00:18.500 um

02:00:36.020 you

Making Sense - Sam Harris - August 14, 2022

#292 — How Much Does the Future Matter？

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